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Valuentum Retail Equity Research Ratings as of 10-Jul-2021 Data as of 9-Jul-2021
Buying Index™ 7 Value RatingEconomic Castle
Attractive
Investment ConsiderationsDCF ValuationRelative Valuation
Stock Chart (weekly) ValueCreation™ValueRisk™ValueTrend™Cash Flow GenerationFinancial LeverageGrowthTechnical EvaluationRelative StrengthMoney Flow Index (MFI)Upside/Downside Volume (U/D)Near-term Technical Support, 10-week MADCF = Discounted Cash Flow; MFI, U/D = Please see glossary. MA = Moving Average
Business Quality ValueCreation™
ValueRisk™ Very Poor Poor Good ExcellentCompany Vitals Investment HighlightsMarket Cap (USD) $70,493Avg Weekly Vol (30 wks) 6,16430-week Range (USD) 236.03 - 267.37Valuentum Sector Health Care5-week Return 2.8%13-week Return -4.1%30-week Return 0.1%Dividend Yield % 1.3% Firms that generate economic profits with little operating variability score near the top right of the matrix.
Dividends per Share 3.32 Relative Valuation Forward P/E PEG Price / FV
Forward Dividend Payout Ratio 25.6% Johnson & Johnson 17.7 1.6 98.8%Est. Normal Diluted EPS 13.19 Medtronic 22.4 1.8 99.4%P/E on Est. Normal Diluted EPS 18.9 Pfizer 10.6 1.4 104.3%Est. Normal EBITDA 7,220 Walgreens Boots Alliance 10.0 1.5 112.7%Forward EV/EBITDA 12.1 Peer Median 22.5 3.1 97.2%EV/Est. Normal EBITDA 11.8 Becton, Dickinson 19.3 2.5 104.9%Forward Revenue Growth (5-yr) 5.5% Price / FV = Current Stock Price divided by Estimated Fair Value
Forward EPS Growth (5-yr) 37.2% Financial Summary ProjectedNMF = Not Meaningful; Est. = Estimated; FY = Fiscal Year
Fiscal Year End: Sep-19 Sep-20 Sep-21
Returns Summary 3-year Historical Average Revenue 17,290 17,117 19,445Return on Equity 3.9% Revenue, YoY% 8.2% -1.0% 13.6%Return on Assets 1.6% Operating Income 2,894 2,156 4,833ROIC, with goodwill 8.6% Operating Margin % 16.7% 12.6% 24.9%ROIC, without goodwill 17.2% Net Income 1,233 874 3,659ROIC = Return on Invested Capital; NMF = Not Meaningful Net Income Margin % 7.1% 5.1% 18.8%Leverage, Coverage, and Liquidity Diluted EPS 3.93 2.72 12.96In Millions of USD Diluted EPS, YoY % 554.8% NMF NMFTotal Debt 17,931 Free Cash Flow (CFO-capex) 2,373 2,729 3,879Net Debt 14,994 Free Cash Flow Margin % 13.7% 15.9% 19.9%Total Debt/EBITDA 4.2 In Millions of USD (except for per share items)
Net Debt/EBITDA 3.5 LARGE-CEBITDA/Interest 8.2 GOODCurrent Ratio 1.5Quick Ratio 0.9
• Becton, Dickinson and Co is a medical technologycompany that sells medical devices, instrumentsystems and reagents. 'Medical' is the firm's largestdivision at more than half of revenue. The segmentfocuses on advancing medication delivery, reducingthe risk of medication errors and enhancing diabetestreatment, and sells items such as needles, syringes,catheters, and sharps disposal containers. ‘LifeSciences’ is its second-largest segment and providesintegrated systems for specimen collection, safety-engineered blood collection, automated bloodculturing and tuberculosis culturing, and a vast rangeof other applications.
• Becton, Dickinson's outlook is supported by itsmerger with C.R. Bard, a ~$24 billion cash and stockdeal completed in December 2017. Please note thatour cash flow models assume that Becton, Dicksongenerates significant margin expansion and revenuegrowth over the coming fiscal years. We caution thatshould the firm stumble, its intrinsic value would facesignificant pressure.
The week with the highest trading volume out of the last 30 weeks was a week of heavy selling, or distribution (red bar).
----- Actual -----
Industry $238.00 $179.00 - $298.00 LARGE-CAP CORE Health Care Health Care Bellwethers
ATTRACTIVE
• The C.R. Bard deal strengthened Becton, Dickinson's position outside the US with strong regional teams inEurope and China. Becton, Dickinson aims to spin offits ‘Diabetes Care’ business by the first half ofcalendar year 2022. This move is expected to allowBecton, Dickinson to better allocate its resources.
BULLISHWEAK
NEUTRALBULLISH
244.00
EXCELLENTMEDIUM
Visit us at www.valuentum.com
Becton, Dickinson BDX FAIRLY VALUED Estimated Fair Value Fair Value Range Investment Style Sector
FAIRLY VALUEDBecton, Dickinson is in the process of spinning off its 'Diabetes Care' business by the first half of calendar year 2022.
POSITIVESTRONG
HIGHMODEST
Medium 1High
Low
Very High
• Looking ahead, Becton, Dickinson aims to simply itsbusiness processes and utilize digital offerings toimprove its growth outlook while keeping a lid oncosts. The resumption of elective proceduresworldwide supports its near-term outlook.
NMF = Not Meaningful
The information and data contained in this report is not represented or warranted to be timely, complete, accurate, or correct. This report is for informational purposes only and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell a security. Before acting on any information in this report, you should consider whether the information is suitable for your particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice. Assumptions, opinions, and estimates are based on our judgment as of the date of the report and are subject to change without notice. Valuentum is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of this report. Redistribution is prohibited without written permission. To license Valuentum research, contact us at [email protected].
Structure of the Medical Instruments IndustryThe medical instrument industry is heavily regulated and characterized by rapid technological change. Firms have been forced to compete on price due to economically-motivated buyers, consolidation among healthcare providers, and declining reimbursement rates. Healthcare reform measures have put additional pressure on procedure rates and market sizes. Still, firms can gain advantages by developing products with differentiated clinical outcomes or by creating patent-protected technology. Since most constituents hold important patents or trade secrets, we tend to like the group.
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Page 1
Valuentum Retail Equity Research (10=best) Data as of 9-Jul-2021
Buying Index™ 7 Value RatingEconomic Castle
Attractive
Economic Profit Analysis
ValueCreation™ EXCELLENT Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)
ROIC - WACC Spread, 3-year historical average 7.8%ROIC - WACC Spread, 5-year projected average 21.6%These spreads equal the firm's annual average ROIC (excluding goodwill) less its WACC.
ValueTrend™ POSITIVE
Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) The graph above shows the firm's ROIC (excluding goodwill) compared with historical averages and its WACC.
ROIC CalculationFiscal Year End: Sep-18 Sep-19 Sep-20
Earnings before InterestOperating Income after Depreciation 2,249 2,894 2,156- Adjusted Taxes (at 15% of EBIT) 337 434 323+ Amortization 1,255 1,497 1,384+ Non-cash Operating Items -81 -156 511- Minority Interest 0 0 0Earnings before Interest 3,086 3,801 3,728
Cost of Equity Invested CapitalRisk Free Rate Assumption Inventories 2,451 2,579 2,743Fundamental Beta (ERP multiplier) + Receivables 2,319 2,345 2,398Estimated Equity Risk Premium + Current Deferred Income Taxes 0 0 0Cost of Equity Assumption + Other Current Assets 1,388 1,120 891
+ Property, Plant and Equipment, Net 5,375 5,659 5,923After-tax Cost of Debt + Goodwill, Net (Cost in Excess) 23,600 23,376 23,620Risk Free Rate Assumption + Intangibles 16,441 14,978 13,813Synthetic Credit Spread + Non Current Deferred Income Taxes 0 0 0Cost of Debt Assumption - Accounts Payable 1,106 1,092 1,355Cash Tax Rate Assumption - Other Current Liabilities 3,508 3,254 3,775After-tax Cost of Debt Assumption
Invested Capital, with goodwill 46,960 45,711 44,258Cost of Preferred Stock Invested Capital, without goodwill 23,360 22,335 20,638Preferred DividendsValue of Preferred Stock Return on Invested Capital, with goodwill 9.3% 8.2% 8.3%Cost of Preferred Assumption Return on Invested Capital, without goodwill 17.5% 16.6% 17.3%
In Millions of USD
Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)ERP = Equity Risk Premium
Becton, Dickinson BDX FAIRLY VALUED Estimated Fair Value Fair Value Range Investment Style Sector Industry
Becton, Dickinson receives a ValueTrend™ rating of POSITIVE, which is based on thecompany's trailing three-year performance. The firm's ROIC (excluding goodwill)increased to 17.3% last year from its trailing 3-year average of 17.2%. We expect ROIC(excluding goodwill) to be in the ballpark of about 39% by the end of our discreteforecast period, with upside potential to about 43% over that time period.
---------- Actual ----------
4.3%
$238.00 $179.00 - $298.00 LARGE-CAP CORE Health Care Health Care Bellwethers
The best measure of a firm's ability to create value for shareholders is expressed bycomparing its return on invested capital (ROIC) with its weighted average cost ofcapital (WACC). The gap or difference between ROIC and WACC is called the firm'seconomic profit spread. Becton, Dickinson's 3-year historical return on invested capital(without goodwill) is 17.2%, which is above the estimate of its cost of capital of 9.4%.As such, we assign the firm a ValueCreation™ rating of EXCELLENT. In the chart tothe right, we show the probable path of ROIC in the years ahead based on the estimatedvolatility of key drivers behind the measure. The solid grey line reflects the most likelyoutcome, in our opinion, and represents the scenario that results in our fair valueestimate.
15.0%6.2%
02
0.0%
9.4%
0.96.5%
10.2%
4.3%3.00%
7.3%
The information and data contained in this report is not represented or warranted to be timely, complete, accurate, or correct. This report is for informational purposes only and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell a security. Before acting on any information in this report, you should consider whether the information is suitable for your particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice. Assumptions, opinions, and estimates are based on our judgment as of the date of the report and are subject to change without notice. Valuentum is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of this report. Redistribution is prohibited without written permission. To license Valuentum research, contact us at [email protected].
Note: Valuentum may provide an adjusted ROIC measure to better reflect the economic substance of a company's operations, as in the case of companies with negative invested capital.
43.3%39.1%
17.5% 16.6% 17.3%
34.8%
WACC, 9.4%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
50.0%
79.7%
20.3%Equity
Debt
Preferred
Capital Structure
Page 2
Valuentum Retail Equity Research (10=best) Data as of 9-Jul-2021
Buying Index™ 7 Value RatingEconomic Castle
Attractive
Growth Analysis
Revenue Growth MODEST Projected Revenue (in millions of USD) Source: Company Filings, Valuentum Projections
Last Fiscal Year
Revenue3-year Historical
CAGR5-year Projected
CAGRBecton, Dickinson USD 17,117 12.3% 5.5%
Johnson & Johnson USD 82,584 2.6% 6.5%
Medtronic USD 30,117 0.2% 6.0%
Pfizer USD 41,908 -7.3% 10.1%
Walgreens Boots Alliance USD 139,537 5.7% 1.3%Boston Scientific USD 9,823 9.5% 8.3%
Stryker USD 13,601 11.0% 3.8%
Biogen USD 13,453 5.3% 6.2%
In the chart above, we show our baseline forecast for revenue as well as potential upside and downside cases.
Zoetis USD 5825 0.0692461 0.065332352 Projected EBITDA (in millions of USD) Source: Company Filings, Valuentum Projections
Last Fiscal Year
EBITDA3-year Historical
CAGR5-year Projected
CAGRBecton, Dickinson USD 4,310 8.5% 11.2%
Johnson & Johnson USD 26,964 2.9% 12.2%
Medtronic USD 7,912 -5.8% 16.7%
Pfizer USD 10,101 -13.7% 18.7%
Walgreens Boots Alliance USD 2,898 -25.7% 24.8%USD 2,400 11.8% 17.9%
Peer Median USD 3,260 8.5% 10.5%
Industry Median USD 7,017 3.9% 13.4%
In the chart above, we show our baseline forecast for EBITDA as well as potential upside and downside cases.
Net Income Grow USD 2189 0.199300588 0.12355185 Projected Net Income (in millions of USD) Source: Company Filings, Valuentum Projections
Last Fiscal Year Net Income
3-year Historical CAGR
5-year Projected CAGR
Becton, Dickinson USD 874 -7.4% 33.7%
Johnson & Johnson USD 14,714 124.5% 17.9%
Medtronic USD 3,606 5.1% 25.4%
Pfizer USD 6,985 -23.3% 14.5%
Walgreens Boots Alliance USD 456 -51.8% 48.7%USD 1,670 291.2% 16.9%
Peer Median USD 3,553 35.2% 2.6%
Industry Median USD 4,430 13.0% 16.3%
In the chart above, we show our baseline forecast for net income as well as potential upside and downside cases.
USD 11143 0.170819095 0.0966751USD 1428 0.615013547 0.1484033
$238.00 $179.00 - $298.00 LARGE-CAP CORE Health Care Health Care Bellwethers
Gilead Sciences
Becton, Dickinson BDX FAIRLY VALUED Estimated Fair Value Fair Value Range Investment Style Sector Industry
Becton, Dickinson's EBITDA expansion has been greater than that of both its peergroup and industry group during the past three years. We expect the firm's EBITDA tooutpace its peer group but trail that of its industry group during the next five years.Walgreens Boots Alliance sports the highest EBITDA growth rate among peers.
Becton, Dickinson's net income expansion has trailed both that of its peer group and itsindustry group during the past three years. We expect the firm's net income expansionto outpace its peer group and industry group during the next five years. WalgreensBoots Alliance sports the highest net income growth rate among peers.
The information and data contained in this report is not represented or warranted to be timely, complete, accurate, or correct. This report is for informational purposes only and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell a security. Before acting on any information in this report, you should consider whether the information is suitable for your particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice. Assumptions, opinions, and estimates are based on our judgment as of the date of the report and are subject to change without notice. Valuentum is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of this report. Redistribution is prohibited without written permission. To license Valuentum research, contact us at [email protected].
15,98317,290 17,117
26,333
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Page 3
Valuentum Retail Equity Research (10=best) Data as of 9-Jul-2021
Buying Index™ 7 Value RatingEconomic Castle
Attractive
Cash Flow and Financial Leverage AnalysisCash Flow Generation STRONG Financial Leverage HIGH
The bars above show the firms operating cash flow, capital expenditures, and free cash flow, respectively. The bars above show the firm's annual debt-to-EBITDA. The red line shows the firm's normalized measure.
Cash Flow from Operations Projected Operating Cash Flow (in millions of USD) Source: Company Filings, Valuentum Projections
Last Fiscal Year CFO
3-year Historical CAGR
5-year Projected CAGR
Becton, Dickinson USD 3,539 11.5% 13.1%
Johnson & Johnson USD 23,536 3.8% 13.8%
Medtronic USD 6,240 10.0% 22.4%
Pfizer USD 14,403 -4.4% 9.9%
Walgreens Boots Alliance USD 5,484 -8.9% -0.6%USD 310 23.4% 74.8%
Peer Median USD 2,610 38.6% 16.4%
Industry Median USD 6,188 10.8% 14.6%
In the chart above, we show our baseline forecast for CFO as well as potential upside and downside cases.
Free Cash Flow (CUSD 10922 -0.04495324 0.134262638 Projected Free Cash Flow (in millions of USD) Source: Company Filings, Valuentum Projections
USD 15827 0.025207984 0.05772165 Source: Company Filings, Valuentum Projections
Becton, Dickinson USD 1,790 38.5% 13.6%
Johnson & Johnson USD 20,189 4.3% 15.3%
Medtronic USD 4,885 10.5% 26.1%
Pfizer USD 11,612 -6.6% 11.4%
Walgreens Boots Alliance USD 4,110 -11.4% -4.5%USD 6 123.8% 475.8%
Peer Median USD 2,038 42.1% 20.7%
Industry Median USD 5,414 12.9% 13.6%
In the chart above, we show our baseline forecast for free cash flow as well as potential upside and downside cases.
$238.00 $179.00 - $298.00 LARGE-CAP CORE Health Care Health Care Bellwethers
Firms that generate a free cash flow margin (free cash flow divided by total revenue)above 5% are usually considered cash cows. Becton, Dickinson's free cash flow marginhas averaged about 14% during the past 3 years. As such, we think the firm's cash flowgeneration is relatively STRONG. The free cash flow measure shown above is derivedby taking cash flow from operations less capital expenditures and differs fromenterprise free cash flow (FCFF), which we use in deriving our fair value estimate forthe company. For more information on the differences between these two measures,please visit our website at Valuentum.com. At Becton, Dickinson, cash flow fromoperations increased about 24% from levels registered two years ago, while capitalexpenditures fell about 9% over the same time period.
Firms that exhibit high leverage tend to be more risky than firms with relatively lowdebt loads, all else equal. We measure financial leverage by taking a firm's currenttotal debt load and dividing it by the firm's trailing average 3-year annual EBITDA.Firms that are over 3 for this metric, we rate as having high leverage. Companies thathave less than 1.5 turns of leverage (or a measure below 1.5), we rate as having lowleverage. Becton, Dickinson's normalized debt-to-EBITDA measure of about 3.93puts it in the HIGH camp.
Becton, Dickinson BDX FAIRLY VALUED Estimated Fair Value Fair Value Range Investment Style Sector Industry
Becton, Dickinson's cash flow from operations expansion has trailed that of its peergroup but has been greater than that of its industry group during the past three years.We expect the firm's pace of cash flow from operations growth to fall below that ofboth its peer group and industry group during the next five years. Medtronic sports thehighest expected cash flow from operations growth rate among peers.
Becton, Dickinson's free cash flow expansion has trailed that of its peer group but hasbeen greater than that of its industry group during the past three years. We forecast thefirm's free cash flow growth to fall below that of its peer group but be in line with thatof its industry group during the next five years. Medtronic sports the highest expectedfree cash flow growth rate among peers.
The information and data contained in this report is not represented or warranted to be timely, complete, accurate, or correct. This report is for informational purposes only and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell a security. Before acting on any information in this report, you should consider whether the information is suitable for your particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice. Assumptions, opinions, and estimates are based on our judgment as of the date of the report and are subject to change without notice. Valuentum is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of this report. Redistribution is prohibited without written permission. To license Valuentum research, contact us at [email protected].
2,865
3,3303,539
895 957 810
1,9702,373
2,729
Sep-18 Sep-19 Sep-20
Cash from Operations Capital Expenditures Free Cash Flow Becton, Dickinson -normalized
leverage, 3.93
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
9/30/2018 9/30/2019 9/30/2020
Becton, Dickinson- annual leverage Becton, Dickinson - normalized leverageMedium Threshold HighThreshold
2,8653,330 3,539
7,588
6,553
5,518
0
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Page 4
Valuentum Retail Equity USD 22-Dec-1903 0.47769465 0.16619633 (10=best) Data as of 9-Jul-2021
Buying Index™ 7 Value RatingEconomic Castle
Attractive
Valuation Analysis
Valuation Assumptions Valuation BreakdownIn Millions of USD (except for per share items)
Revenue CAGR %Avg. EBIT Margin %Avg. Cash Tax Rate %Earnings Before Interest CAGR %Earnings Per Share CAGR %Free Cash Flow to the Firm CAGR %Earnings before interest = Net operating profits less adjusted taxes
Phase II --> III FCFF CAGR % 3.3% (II) 3% (III)Cost of Equity %After-tax Cost of Debt %Discount Rate (WACC) %Synthetic credit spread = 3%
Phase I Present ValuePhase II Present ValuePhase III Present ValueTotal Firm Value
Net Balance Sheet Impact
Total Equity ValueDiluted Shares OutstandingFair Value per Share
DCF Valuation Summary Enterprise Free Cash FlowFiscal Year End: 9/30/2018 9/30/2019 9/30/2020
3,086 3,801 3,728723 756 770895 957 810
-100 219 -563 - Acquisitions 15,281 0 164
-12,267 3,381 4,087In Millions of USD
Source: Company Filings, Valuentum Projections
Company NameValuentum Buying
Index™Forward Price-to-
Earnings
Price/Earnings-to-Growth (PEG), 5-
yearEV/Est. Normal
EBITDA
5-year Forward Earnings per Share CAGR
3-year Hist Avg ROIC, without
goodwillDividend Yield
%
Stock Price / Fair Value Estimate
Becton, Dickinson 7 19.3 2.5 11.8 37.2% 17.2% 1.3% 104.9%
Johnson & Johnson 6 17.7 1.6 10.8 19.1% 33.7% 2.5% 98.8%
Medtronic 6 22.4 1.8 12.7 26.7% 20.7% 2.0% 99.4%
Pfizer 7 10.6 1.4 10.5 22.9% 23.4% 3.9% 104.3%
Walgreens Boots Alliance 4 10.0 1.5 6.0 59.1% 13.4% 3.9% 112.7%6 24 5 2 1 # 15 1 15 8% 17 1% 0 0% 107 2%
Peer Median 3.0 22.5 3.1 17.5 2.6% 30.0% 1.2% 97.2%
Industry Median 6.0 19.0 2.3 11.9 18.8% 35.5% 1.4% 105.0%
6 34.1226285 221.2% 15.0521124 0.2499 0.1789 0.0126 1.1002
Becton, Dickinson BDX FAIRLY VALUED Estimated Fair Value Fair Value Range Investment Style Sector Industry
$238.00 $179.00 - $298.00 LARGE-CAP CORE Health Care Health Care Bellwethers
5-year Projections In the chart below, we show the build up to our estimate of total enterprise value forBecton, Dickinson and the break down to the firm's total equity value, which weestimate to be about 67.14USD billion. The present value of the enterprise free cashflows generated during each phase of our model and the net balance sheet impact isdisplayed. We divide total equity value by diluted shares outstanding to arrive at our$238 per share fair value estimate.
5.5%24.0%15.0%
9.4%Results19,618
10.2%37.2%7.2%
Long-term Projections
10.2%6.2%
-14,996
67,140282.4
$238.00
36,95425,56482,136
Company Metrics versus Peer and Industry Medians
P/E on Est. Normal Diluted EPS Forward EV/EBITDA
18.9 12.1
In Millions of USD
---------- Actual ----------
We think Becton, Dickinson is worth $238 per share with a fair value range of$179.00 - $298.00. The margin of safety around our fair value estimate is driven by thefirm's MEDIUM ValueRisk™ rating, which is derived from an evaluation of thehistorical volatility of key valuation drivers and a future assessment of them. Our near-term operating forecasts, including revenue and earnings, do not differ much fromconsensus estimates or management guidance. Our model reflects a compound annualrevenue growth rate of 5.5% during the next five years, a pace that is lower than thefirm's 3-year historical compound annual growth rate of 12.3%. Our model reflects a 5-year projected average operating margin of 24%, which is above Becton, Dickinson'strailing 3-year average. Beyond year 5, we assume free cash flow will grow at an annualrate of 3.3% for the next 15 years and 3% in perpetuity. For Becton, Dickinson, we usea 9.4% weighted average cost of capital to discount future free cash flows.
Earnings before Interest+ Depreciation - Capital Expenditures - Change in Working Capital
Enterprise Free Cash Flow (FCFF)
Our future forecasts for key valuation drivers result in a future free enterprise cashflow stream. Above, we show how we calculate enterprise free cash flow and thehistorical performance of the metric for Becton, Dickinson. Over the next five years,we expect the firm's enterprise free cash flow to expand at about a 7% compoundannual growth rate. During years 6 through 20, we expect the measure to grow at a3.3% rate. Beyond year 20 (in perpetuity), we grow the firm's free cash flow atinflation (3%).
9.2 5.9
22.0 17.8
16.7 13.4
14.9 12.3
18.0 14.8
11.5 9.6
View back of report for a full list of industry constituents covered by Valuentum. VBI: Valuentum's ranking for the attractiveness of this investment at the date of the report.
The information and data contained in this report is not represented or warranted to be timely, complete, accurate, or correct. This report is for informational purposes only and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell a security. Before acting on any information in this report, you should consider whether the information is suitable for your particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice. Assumptions, opinions, and estimates are based on our judgment as of the date of the report and are subject to change without notice. Valuentum is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of this report. Redistribution is prohibited without written permission. To license Valuentum research, contact us at [email protected]. 0.050834681
19,618
36,954
25,56414,996
67,140
0
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Yr 1-5 Yr 6-20 Perpetuity Net Balance SheetImpact
Equity Value
Page 5
Valuentum Retail Equity 1/6/1900 16-Jan-1900 1.92027734 10.77801946 0.191255802 0.48601 0-Jan-1900 0-Jan-1900
10.4693 ##### 0.23 0.0424 43 5561 3 37378488 26 43397964 0 16009 0 30739 0 00505 1 42676Economic Castle
Attractive
Margin of Safety Analysis
Range of Potential Outcomes ValueRisk™ MEDIUM
Revenue Volatility 14.2%Gross Margin Volatility 12.8%Earnings (EBI) Volatility 8.7%Cash Flow (FCFF) Volatility Greater than 50%Fair Value Range 25.0%The Fair Value Range sets the premium or discount on our estimate of the firm's fair value.
Upside and Downside ProbabilitiesProbability (fair value < $0) Less than 0.1%Probability (fair value > 2x current share price) 0.00%
Future Path of Fair Value
The graph above shows the expected future fair value of the firm's shares relative to its current stock price.
Becton, Dickinson BDX FAIRLY VALUED Estimated Fair Value Fair Value Range Investment Style Sector Industry
Our discounted cash flow process values each firm on the basis of the present value ofall future free cash flows. Although we estimate the firm's fair value at about $238 pershare, every company has a range of probable fair values that's created by theuncertainty of key valuation drivers (like future revenue or earnings, for example). After all, if the future were known with certainty, we wouldn't see much volatility in themarkets as stocks would trade precisely at their known fair values. Our ValueRisk™rating sets the margin of safety or the fair value range we assign to each stock. In thegraph above, we show this probable range of fair values for Becton, Dickinson. Wethink the firm is attractive below $179 per share (the green line), but quite expensiveabove $298 per share (the red line). The prices that fall along the yellow line, whichincludes our fair value estimate, represent a reasonable valuation for the firm, in ouropinion.
We strive to answer a few questions that investors often ask: 1) What are the chancesof a total loss of investment in this company? and 2) What is the chance that thecompany is really worth twice what I paid for it? The probability (fair value < 0)strives to answer the first question. It indicates the chance that the firm mayencounter insolvency based on the characteristics of its cash flow stream, capitalstructure, and risk profile. The probability (fair value > 2x current share price) strivesto answer the second question. It is our best estimate of whether investors areparticipating in a half-off sale by buying the company's shares at current prices.
We estimate Becton, Dickinson's fair value at this point in time to be about $238 pershare. As time passes, however, companies generate cash flow and pay out cash toshareholders in the form of dividends. The chart to the right compares the firm's currentshare price with the path of Becton, Dickinson's expected equity value per share overthe next three years, assuming our long-term projections prove accurate. The rangebetween the resulting downside fair value and upside fair value in Year 3 represents ourbest estimate of the value of the firm's shares three years hence. This range of potentialoutcomes is also subject to change over time, should our views on the firm's future cashflow potential change. The expected fair value of $307 per share in Year 3 representsour existing fair value per share of $238 increased at an annual rate of the firm's cost ofequity less its dividend yield. The upside and downside ranges are derived in the sameway, but from the upper and lower bounds of our fair value estimate range.
The information and data contained in this report is not represented or warranted to be timely, complete, accurate, or correct. This report is for informational purposes only and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell a security. Before acting on any information in this report, you should consider whether the information is suitable for your particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice. Assumptions, opinions, and estimates are based on our judgment as of the date of the report and are subject to change without notice. Valuentum is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of this report. Redistribution is prohibited without written permission. To license Valuentum research, contact us at [email protected].
$238.00 $179.00 - $298.00 LARGE-CAP CORE Health Care Health Care Bellwethers
Becton, Dickinson receives a ValueRisk™ rating of MEDIUM based of the historicalvolatility of key drivers of economic value creation. The fair value range sets themargin of safety around our fair value estimate of the firm's shares.
$179
$238
$297
0 100 200 300 400 500
$384
$307Current Share Price, $250
$231
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
Current Share Price Yr 1 Fair Value Yr 2 Fair Value Yr 3 Fair Value
Page 6
Valuentum Retail Equity Research (10=best) Data as of 9-Jul-2021
Buying Index™ ##### Value RatingEconomic Castle
Attractive
Technical Analysis
Technical Evaluation BULLISH Money Flow Index (MFI) NEUTRAL
30-week Price and Volume Chart (weekly)Relative Price Strength WEAK
5-week Company Performance 2.8%5-week Market Benchmark Performance 2.6%5-week Relative Performance vs. Market Benchmark 0.2%13-week Company Performance -4.1%13-week Market Benchmark Performance 7.5%13-week Relative Performance vs. Market Benchmark -11.6%30-week Company Performance 0.1%30-week Market Benchmark Performance 17.5%30-week Relative Performance vs. Market Benchmark -17.4%
Upside/Downside Volume BULLISH Timeliness Matrix™ Equity Valuation
Relative Strength
Firms that are undervalued and currently showing near-term pricing strength score near the top right of the matrix.
Becton, Dickinson BDX FAIRLY VALUED
The firm's near-term moving average (5-week, grey line) and medium-term movingaverage (13-week, red line) are shown in the chart above. Typically, when a shorter-term moving average crosses a medium- or longer-term moving average from below, itrepresents a bullish signal. If the short-term moving average crosses from above, tradersoften view this as bearish. Becton, Dickinson's 5-week moving average resides aboveits 13-week measure, indicating a BULLISH trend. Such a move could indicate areversal in the firm's 30-week downtrend.
The Money Flow Index (MFI) is an oscillator that uses price and volume to measurebuying and selling pressure. Chartists often look for overbought (above 80) andoversold (below 20) levels to warn of unsustainable near-term price extremes.Becton, Dickinson's MFI of 32 (green line) is neutral, suggesting the firm's stock isneither overbought nor oversold at this time. However, a score below 50 tends tofavor bears. The MFI can also be used to gauge the strength or weakness of a firm'sprice trend. In Becton, Dickinson's case, its stock price and money flow neitherreveals a bullish nor bearish divergence, further supporting our neutral view on itsmoney flow action.
A firm's relative price strength can be assessed over any number of time horizons. Weshow the firm's performance over the past 5 weeks, 13 weeks, and 30 weeks below.In arriving at our relative strength rating for each company, we assess the past 13weeks, which includes the market's reaction to the firm's most recently reportedquarter, where applicable, and other more recent economic events. During the past 13weeks, Becton, Dickinson's shares returned -4.1%, while the market benchmarkreturned 7.5%. We think Becton, Dickinson's 13-week relative price performance isWEAK.
In the chart above, we pinpoint the heaviest accumulation or distribution week of thefirm, determined by the week with the highest trading volume during the past 30 weeks.A heavy accumulation (buying) or distribution (selling) week often determines thefuture near-term direction of the firm's share price, as money managers continue tomove in or out of the stock in the days and weeks ahead driving the stock up or down,respectively. For Becton, Dickinson, the week with the highest trading volume out ofthe last 30 weeks was a week of heavy selling, or distribution (red bar). Such marketactivity could indicate a reversal of an uptrend or further confirmation of a downtrend.
Overvalued Fairly Valued Undervalued
Estimated Fair Value Fair Value Range Investment Style Sector Industry $238.00 $179.00 - $298.00 LARGE-CAP CORE Health Care Health Care Bellwethers
Weak 1Companies that are undervalued and showing near-term relative price strength couldrepresent timely buys, as the stock may be attractive to both value and momentuminvestors. A cross section of the firm's equity valuation and its relative share pricestrength is shown in the matrix above. We tend to prefer undervalued stocks that have strong pricing momentum, also called Valuentum stocks.
The level and trend of the Upside/Downside (U/D) volume ratio reveals whetherinstitutional participation has been bullish or bearish as of late. Becton, Dickinson'sU/D volume ratio of 1.1 is not only greater than 1 but also is better than its trailingaverage, indicating BULLISH institutional interest during the past several weeks.
Strong
Neutral
The information and data contained in this report is not represented or warranted to be timely, complete, accurate, or correct. This report is for informational purposes only and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell a security. Before acting on any information in this report, you should consider whether the information is suitable for your particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice. Assumptions, opinions, and estimates are based on our judgment as of the date of the report and are subject to change without notice. Valuentum is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of this report. Redistribution is prohibited without written permission. To license Valuentum research, contact us at [email protected].
201
211
221
231
241
251
261
271
281
05,000,000
10,000,00015,000,00020,000,00025,000,00030,000,00035,000,00040,000,00045,000,000
5-week Moving Average
13-week Moving Average
Stock Price
217
227
237
247
257
267 Overbought Line
Oversold Line
3732
0102030405060708090
1.21.1Average, 1.0
0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.6
- 10-week Moving Average
Page 7
Valuentum Retail Equity Research (10=best) Data as of 9-Jul-2021
Buying Index™ ##### Value RatingEconomic Castle
Attractive
Pro Forma Income Statement -------------------- Historical --------------------
In Millions of USD (except for per share items)Sep-18 Sep-20
Total Revenue 15,983 17,117
Cost of Goods Sold 8,714 9,540
Selling, General and Administrative Expenses 4,016 4,325
Other Operating Expenses 1,004 1,096
Operating Income 2,249 2,156
Unusual items 0 0
Operating Income, including unusual items 2,249 2,156
Interest Expense (706) (528)
Other Non-operating Income (370) (643)
Pre-tax Income 1,173 985
Income Taxes 862 111
Income after tax 311 874
Minority Interest and Equity Income 0 0
Net Income, excluding extra items 311 874
Income Available to Common, excluding extra items 311 874
Diluted Earnings per Share, excluding extra items 0.60 2.72
Diluted Weighted Shares Outstanding 264.6 282.4
Source: Company Filings, Xignite, Valuentum Projections
$238.00 $179.00 - $298.00 LARGE-CAP CORE Health Care Health Care Bellwethers
---------- Projected ----------
Becton, Dickinson BDX FAIRLY VALUED Estimated Fair Value Fair Value Range Investment Style Sector Industry
17,290 19,445 19,328
Sep-19 Sep-21 Sep-22
1,062 1,070 1,055
9,002 9,317 9,183
4,332 4,224 4,163
0 0 0
2,894 4,833 4,927
2,894 4,833 4,927
(1,079) 0 0
(639) (528) (528)
(57) 646 660
1,176 4,305 4,399
0 0 0
1,233 3,659 3,739
1,233 3,659 3,739
1,233 3,659 3,739
274.8 282.4 282.4
The information and data contained in this report is not represented or warranted to be timely, complete, accurate, or correct. This report is for informational purposes only and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell a security. Before acting on any information in this report, you should consider whether the information is suitable for your particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice. Assumptions, opinions, and estimates are based on our judgment as of the date of the report and are subject to change without notice. Valuentum is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of this report. Redistribution is prohibited without written permission. To license Valuentum research, contact us at [email protected].
3.93 12.96 13.24
Note: Pro forma data in discounted cash-flow valuation may reflect significant adjustments from GAAP accounting data, including cash (not effective) tax rates and other analytical adjustments on a backward-looking and forward-looking basis. No individual data, by itself, found in this report should be used to make any investment decision.
Page 8
Valuentum Retail Equity Research (10=best) Data as of 9-Jul-2021
Buying Index™ ##### Value RatingEconomic Castle
Attractive
Pro Forma Balance Sheet -------------------- Historical --------------------
In Millions of USD (except for per share items)Sep-18 Sep-20
AssetsTotal Cash (including marketable securities) 1,253 2,937Inventory 2,451 2,743Accounts Receivable 2,319 2,398Other Current Assets 1,388 891Total Current Assets 7,411 8,969
Gross Fixed Assets 10,486 11,919(Accumulated Depreciation) (5,111) (5,996)Net Property, Plant, and Equipment 5,375 5,923
Goodwill, Net 23,600 23,620Intangibles, Net 16,441 13,813Other Long-term Assets 1,077 1,687Total Assets 53,904 54,012
LiabilitiesAccounts Payable 1,106 1,355Other Current Liabilities 3,508 3,775Current Portion of Long-term Debt 2,601 707Total Current Liabilities 7,215 5,837
Long-term Debt 18,894 17,224Other Long-term Liabilities 6,799 7,186Total Liabilities 32,908 30,247
Preferred Stock 2 2
Shareholders' EquityCommon Stock and Additional Paid in Capital 16,526 19,635Retained Earnings 12,596 12,791Other Equity (8,128) (8,663)Total Shareholders' Equity 20,996 23,765
Total Liabilities and Shareholders' Equity 53,904 54,012
Becton, Dickinson BDX FAIRLY VALUED
---------- Projected ----------
Sep-19 Sep-21 Sep-22
Estimated Fair Value Fair Value Range Investment Style Sector Industry $238.00 $179.00 - $298.00 LARGE-CAP CORE Health Care Health Care Bellwethers
2,579 2,679 2,6412,345 2,726 2,712
620 5,876 9,270
11,128 12,891 13,980(5,469) (6,871) (7,740)
1,120 891 8916,664 12,173 15,515
14,978 12,429 11,0451,087 1,687 1,687
5,659 6,020 6,239
23,376 23,620 23,620
1,092 1,303 1,277
51,764 55,929 58,106
5,655 6,034 5,938
3,254 4,024 3,9541,309 707 707
30,684 30,444 30,348
18,081 17,224 17,2246,948 7,186 7,186
16,617 19,635 19,63512,913 15,513 18,286
2 0 0
51,764 55,929 58,106
(8,452) (9,663) (10,163)21,080 25,485 27,758
Source: Company Filings, Xignite, Valuentum Projections
The information and data contained in this report is not represented or warranted to be timely, complete, accurate, or correct. This report is for informational purposes only and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell a security. Before acting on any information in this report, you should consider whether the information is suitable for your particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice. Assumptions, opinions, and estimates are based on our judgment as of the date of the report and are subject to change without notice. Valuentum is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of this report. Redistribution is prohibited without written permission. To license Valuentum research, contact us at [email protected].
Note: Pro forma data in discounted cash-flow valuation may reflect significant adjustments from GAAP accounting data, including cash (not effective) tax rates and other analytical adjustments on a backward-looking and forward-looking basis. No individual data, by itself, found in this report should be used to make any investment decision.
Page 9
Valuentum Retail Equity Research (10=best) Data as of 9-Jul-2021
Buying Index™ ##### Value RatingEconomic Castle
Attractive
Pro Forma Cash Flow Statement -------------------- Historical --------------------
In Millions of USD (except for per share items)Sep-18 Sep-20
Cash from OperationsNet Income 311 874Depreciation and Amortization 1,978 2,154Deferred Income Taxes (240) 0Operating Gains Or Losses (81) 511Changes in Working Capital 897 0
Cash Flow from Operations 2,865 3,539
Cash from InvestingPurchase of Property, Plant, Equipment (895) (810)Other Investing Cash Flows (14,838) (422)Cash Flow from Investing (15,733) (1,232)
Cash from FinancingIssuance (Retirement) of Stock 0 2,917Issuance (Retirement) of Debt 1,090 (1,760)Dividends Paid (927) (1,026)Other Financing Cash Flows (221) (109)Cash Flow from Financing (58) 22
Foreign Exchange (17) (3)
Net Change in Cash (12,943) 2,326
Becton, Dickinson BDX FAIRLY VALUED Estimated Fair Value Fair Value Range Investment Style Sector Industry
Sep-19 Sep-21 Sep-22
$238.00 $179.00 - $298.00 LARGE-CAP CORE Health Care Health Care Bellwethers
---------- Projected ----------
2,253 2,259 2,2530 0 0
1,233 3,659 3,739
3,330 4,851 5,448
(156) (1,000) (500)0 (67) (45)
(741) (972) (1,089)
(957) (972) (1,089)216 0 0
(984) (938) (966)(204) 0 0
0 0 0(2,035) 0 0
(12) 0 0
(646) 2,941 3,394
(3,223) (938) (966)
Source: Company Filings, Xignite, Valuentum Projections
The information and data contained in this report is not represented or warranted to be timely, complete, accurate, or correct. This report is for informational purposes only and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell a security. Before acting on any information in this report, you should consider whether the information is suitable for your particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice. Assumptions, opinions, and estimates are based on our judgment as of the date of the report and are subject to change without notice. Valuentum is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of this report. Redistribution is prohibited without written permission. To license Valuentum research, contact us at [email protected].
Note: Pro forma data in discounted cash-flow valuation may reflect significant adjustments from GAAP accounting data, including cash (not effective) tax rates and other analytical adjustments on a backward-looking and forward-looking basis. No individual data, by itself, found in this report should be used to make any investment decision.
Page 10
Valuentum Retail Equity Research (10=best) Data as of 9-Jul-2021
Buying Index™ ##### Value RatingEconomic Castle
Attractive
Health Care BellwethersHealth Care Bellwethers FAIRLY VALUED
Company Name TickerMarket Cap (USD-
mil) DCF Valuation ValueCreation™ ValueRisk™ ValueTrend™ Technicals Relative Strength
Abbott ABT 208,966 FAIRLY VALUED EXCELLENT LOW POSITIVE BULLISH NEUTRAL
AbbVie ABBV 194,838 FAIRLY VALUED EXCELLENT MEDIUM NEGATIVE BULLISH NEUTRAL
Amgen AMGN 144,588 FAIRLY VALUED EXCELLENT LOW NEGATIVE BEARISH WEAK
Baxter Intl BAX 41,681 FAIRLY VALUED EXCELLENT MEDIUM NEGATIVE BEARISH WEAK
Becton, Dickinson BDX 70,493 FAIRLY VALUED EXCELLENT MEDIUM POSITIVE BULLISH WEAK
Biogen BIIB 57,800 FAIRLY VALUED EXCELLENT MEDIUM NEGATIVE BULLISH STRONG
Boston Scientific BSX 61,832 FAIRLY VALUED VERY POOR MEDIUM POSITIVE BULLISH NEUTRAL
Bristol-Myers Squibb BMY 150,255 FAIRLY VALUED EXCELLENT LOW NEGATIVE BULLISH WEAK
CVS Health CVS 107,712 OVERVALUED EXCELLENT MEDIUM POSITIVE BEARISH NEUTRAL
Eli Lilly LLY 214,977 OVERVALUED EXCELLENT LOW NEGATIVE NEUTRAL STRONG
Gilead Sciences GILD 86,370 FAIRLY VALUED EXCELLENT MEDIUM NEGATIVE BULLISH WEAK
Intuitive Surgical ISRG 114,373 FAIRLY VALUED EXCELLENT MEDIUM NEGATIVE BULLISH STRONG
Johnson & Johnson JNJ 453,779 FAIRLY VALUED EXCELLENT LOW POSITIVE VERY BULLISH WEAK
Medtronic MDT 173,698 FAIRLY VALUED EXCELLENT LOW NEGATIVE VERY BULLISH WEAK
Merck MRK 198,325 FAIRLY VALUED EXCELLENT LOW NEGATIVE BULLISH NEUTRAL
Mettler-Toledo MTD 34,679 FAIRLY VALUED EXCELLENT LOW POSITIVE BULLISH STRONG
Pfizer PFE 223,281 FAIRLY VALUED EXCELLENT LOW POSITIVE VERY BULLISH WEAK
Regeneron REGN 66,485 FAIRLY VALUED EXCELLENT MEDIUM NEGATIVE NEUTRAL STRONG
Stryker SYK 100,597 FAIRLY VALUED EXCELLENT MEDIUM POSITIVE BULLISH WEAK
UnitedHealth Group UNH 395,999 FAIRLY VALUED EXCELLENT MEDIUM POSITIVE VERY BULLISH NEUTRAL
Vertex Pharma VRTX 52,137 FAIRLY VALUED EXCELLENT HIGH POSITIVE BEARISH WEAK
Walgreens Boots Alliance WBA 41,678 FAIRLY VALUED GOOD LOW POSITIVE BEARISH WEAK
Zimmer Biomet ZBH 32,975 FAIRLY VALUED EXCELLENT LOW NEGATIVE BEARISH WEAK
Zoetis ZTS 94,572 FAIRLY VALUED EXCELLENT MEDIUM POSITIVE NEUTRAL STRONG
$238.00 $179.00 - $298.00 LARGE-CAP CORE Health Care Health Care Bellwethers
We think the Health Care Bellwethers industry is fairly valued at this time. Theindustry's market cap is trading between 80% and 120% of our estimate of its fair valuebased on our DCF process. Although we use a firm-specific ValueRisk™ measure todetermine whether a firm is undervalued or overvalued based on our DCF process, weconsider an industry to be undervalued if it is trading below 80% of our estimate of itsfair value and overvalued if it is trading at over 120% of our estimate of its fair value.We think these fair value ranges are appropriate given the diversification benefits ofholding a basket of stocks. Although there may be individual opportunities within theHealth Care Bellwethers industry, we don't find the industry as a whole attractive basedsolely on valuation.
Becton, Dickinson BDX FAIRLY VALUED Estimated Fair Value Fair Value Range Investment Style Sector Industry
LARGE-CAP CORE NEUTRAL
LARGE-CAP CORE UNATTRACTIVE
LARGE-CAP CORE NEUTRAL
The above bar chart reveals the price/fair value of the company, its peers, and the industry as a whole.Shaded blue denotes that the firm has earned the highest rating for that respective category.Investment Style Relative Valuation
MEGA-CAP CORE NEUTRAL
LARGE-CAP VALUE NEUTRAL
LARGE-CAP CORE NEUTRAL
MEGA-CAP CORE UNATTRACTIVE
LARGE-CAP CORE ATTRACTIVE
LARGE-CAP CORE ATTRACTIVE
LARGE-CAP CORE UNATTRACTIVE
LARGE-CAP VALUE NEUTRAL
LARGE-CAP VALUE NEUTRAL
LARGE-CAP GROWTH UNATTRACTIVE
LARGE-CAP VALUE NEUTRAL
LARGE-CAP GROWTH UNATTRACTIVE
MEGA-CAP VALUE NEUTRAL
MEGA-CAP CORE NEUTRAL
LARGE-CAP BLEND NEUTRAL
LARGE-CAP CORE ATTRACTIVE
MEGA-CAP GROWTH ATTRACTIVE
LARGE-CAP BLEND NEUTRAL
LARGE-CAP GROWTH UNATTRACTIVE
LARGE-CAP CORE UNATTRACTIVE
LARGE-CAP GROWTH UNATTRACTIVE
The information and data contained in this report is not represented or warranted to be timely, complete, accurate, or correct. This report is for informational purposes only and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell a security. Before acting on any information in this report, you should consider whether the information is suitable for your particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice. Assumptions, opinions, and estimates are based on our judgment as of the date of the report and are subject to change without notice. Valuentum is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of this report. Redistribution is prohibited without written permission. To license Valuentum research, contact us at [email protected].
104.9%
97.2%
105.0%
92%
94%
96%
98%
100%
102%
104%
106%
Becton, Dickinson Peer Median Health Care Bellwethers
Page 11
Valuentum's Full Page Stock Report
The information and data contained in this report is not represented or warranted to be timely, complete, accurate, or correct. This report is for informational purposes only and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell a security. Before acting on any information in this report, you should consider whether the information is suitable for your particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice. Assumptions, opinions, and estimates are based on our judgment as of the date of the report and are subject to change without notice. Valuentum is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of this report. Redistribution is prohibited without written permission. To license Valuentum research, contact us at [email protected].
BA
G
I
N
C
J
D
M
H
E
L
K
A DCF ValuationShows whether the firm is undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued based on our DCF process and by how much.
B Valuentum Buying Index (VBI)Provides insight into the timeliness of an investment opportunity. We rank firms from 1 to 10 based on rigorous fiancial, valuation, and technical analysis. A 10 represents one of our top picks.
C Valuentum Value Rating (VVR) Indicates whether we think a firm is undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued on the basis of our DCF process.
D Investment ConsiderationsEvaluates firms on 12 different measures, from the firm's growth and cash flow generation to the stock's money flow index and upside/downside volume. We reveal technical support and resistance levels.
E 30-week Price and Volume ActionDisplays the last accumulation or distribution week of the stock and historical price and volume action.
G Company VitalsShows sector,industry and other relevant company information.
H Business QualitySummary of the firm's ability to create value for shareholders compared wth the underlying risk of its operations.
I Normalized EPS and EBITDAEstimation of the firm's normalized earnings measures and the corresponding valuation mutliples.
J Investment HighlightsOur opinion of the company, including analysis of its financial and technical strengths and weaknesses.
K Relative ValuationComparison of the firm's PE, PEG, and Price/FV ratios versus peers.
L Returns Summary3-year averages of the firm's key return measures, including return on invested capital, with and without goodwill.
M Leverage, Coverage, and LiquidityA snapshot of the company's financial health.
N Financial SummaryA summary of the proforma financial statements found in the extended report.
VBI Score Action10 Top Pick9 We'd Consider Buying
6 to 8 Constructive (add/trim)3 to 6 Less Exciting (add/trim)1 to 2 We'd Consider Selling
Page 12
UNDERVALUED
FAIRLY VALUED
OVERVALUED
• Revenue Volatility • Margin Volatility • Earnings Volatility • Cash Flow VolatilityThe information and data contained in this report is not represented or warranted to be timely, complete, accurate, or correct. This report is for informational purposes only and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell a security. Before acting on any information in this report, you should consider whether the information is suitable for your particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice. Assumptions, opinions, and estimates are based on our judgment as of the date of the report and are subject to change without notice. Valuentum is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of this report. Redistribution is prohibited without written permission. To license Valuentum research, contact us at [email protected].
About Valuentum
@Valuentum, we strive to stand out from the crowd. Mostinvestment research publishers fall into a few camps,whether it be value, growth, income, momentum, chartistor some variant of the aforementioned. We think each inits own right holds merit, but we think the combination ofthese approaches can be even more powerful. After all,stock price movements aren’t just driven by investors ofthe value or growth variety, but by all market participants.Therefore, we look at stocks from a variety of investmentperspectives in order to better understand and identifyideas. We want to provide relevant information.
The core of our process is grounded in rigorous discountedcash flow analysis and incorporates the concept of amargin of safety. We offer a fair value estimate for eachcompany and provide a relative valuation assessment inthe context of a company’s industry and closest peers. Across section of our ValueCreation™ and ValueRisk™ratings provides a financial assessment of a company’sbusiness quality, while our ValueTrend™ rating offersinsight into the trajectory of a firm’s economic profitcreation. The Economic Castle rating measures themagnitude of future economic value generation, and theDividend Cushion ratio assesses the financial capacity of acompany to keep raising its dividend.
Our analysis doesn’t stop there. We also offer a technicalevaluation of the stock as well as other momentumindicators. We not only want to reveal to readers whichfirms may be undervalued, in our view, but we also wantto provide readers with information to help them assessentry and exit points. Most research publishers focus onarriving at a target price or fair value estimate, but mayfall short of providing a technical assessment to bolsterbuy and sell disciplines. We strive to go the distance andprovide readers with answers--not half the story.
An explanation of our approach would not be complete ifwe didn’t describe our ideal stock idea. We’re lookingfor companies that are undervalued--both on a DCF basisand versus peers--have strong growth potential, have asolid track record of creating economic profits forshareholders with reasonable risk, are strong cash flowgenerators, have manageable financial leverage, and arecurrently showing bullish technical and momentumindicators. For dividend growth ideas, we look forcompanies that have both the capacity and willingness tokeep raising the dividend.
Can such stock ideas exist? Subscribe to Valuentum toreceive our best investment ideas and analysis onhundreds of stocks, dividends, ETFs and more.
Historical firm-specific financial data generates our ValueCreation™, ValueRisk™, and ValueTrend™ ratings. The data provides the basis for our financial forecasts. Full annual forecasts of income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement items. Firm-specific cost of equity, cost of debt, weighted average cost of capital, and long-term growth and profitability measures estimated.
A complete three-stage free cash flow to the firm valuation model generates an estimate of the firm's equity value per share based on estimated future free cash flows.The volatility of key valuation drivers are estimated and a margin of safety is determined.
The firm's stock price is compared to the suggested margin of safety. If a firm's stock price falls below the lower bound of our estimated fair value range, it receives Valuentum's highest Value Rating.
Financial Forecasts
Financial Statement Analysis
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation
ModelValueRisk™
Rating
Valuentum Value Rating (VVR)
Page 13
VBI Score Action10 Top Pick9 We'd Consider Buying
6 to 8 Constructive (add/trim)3 to 6 Less Exciting (add/trim)1 to 2 We'd Consider Selling
Methodology for Picking Stocks - Valuentum Buying Index™ (VBI)
@ Valuentum, we like to look at companies from anumber of different perspectives. The Valuentum BuyingIndex (VBI) combines rigorous financial and valuationanalysis with an evaluation of a stock's technicals to derivea rating between 1 and 10 for each company. The VBIplaces considerable emphasis on a company's discountedcash-flow (DCF) valuation, its relative valuation versuspeers (both forward PE and PEG ratios), and its technicalsin order to help readers assess entry and exit points on themost interesting ideas.
Let's follow the red line on the flow chart below to seehow a company can score a 10, the best mark on the index(a "Top Pick"). First, the company would need to be'undervalued' on a DCF basis and 'attractive' on a relativevalue basis. The stock would also have to be exhibiting
'bullish' technicals. The firm would need aValueCreation™ rating of 'good' or 'excellent', exhibit'high' or 'aggressive' growth prospects, and generate atleast a 'medium' or 'neutral' assessment for cash flowgeneration, financial leverage, and relative price strength.
This is a tall order for any company. Stocks that don'tmake the cut for a 10 are ranked accordingly, with theleast attractive stocks, in our opinion, garnering a ratingof 1 ("We'd sell"). Most of our coverage universeregisters ratings between 3 and 7, but at any given timethere could be large number of companies garneringeither very high or very low scores, especially at marketlows or tops, respectively.
The Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio puts the VBI intopractice.
The information contained in this report is not represented or warranted to be accurate, correct, complete, or timely. This report is for informational purposes only and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell a security. Before acting on any information in this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice. Assumptions, opinions, and estimates are based on our judgment as of the date of the report and are subject to change without notice. Valuentum is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of this report. Redistribution is prohibited without written permission. To license Valuentum research, contact us at [email protected].
DCF FairlyValued
DCF Undervalued
Relative ValueUnattractive/Neutral
Relative Value Attractive
Relative ValueUnattractive/Neutral
Relative Value Attractive
Technicals Bearish: 1
Technicals Neutral: 2
TechnicalsBullish: 4
Technicals Bullish: 7
TechnicalsBearish: 6
Technicals >= BullishValueCreation(TM) >= GoodGrowth >= HighCash Flow Generation >= MediumFinancial Leverage <= MediumRelative Strength >= Neutral
Final Score: 10
Technicals Bullish: 9
Technicals Neutral: 8
TechnicalsBearish: 3
Relative Value Unattractive/Neutral
Relative Value Attractive
Technicals Bearish: 3
Technicals Neutral: 6
Technicals Bullish: 7
Technicals Bearish: 3
Technicals Bullish: 6
Technicals Bullish: 7
Technicals Neutral: 5
Technicals Bearish: 4
Technicals Neutral: 4
Initial Index Score
DCF Overvalued
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GlossaryEstimated Fair Value. This measure is our opinion of the fair equity value per share ofthe company. If our forecasts prove accurate, which may not always be the case, wemay expect a firm's stock price to converge to this value within the next 3 years.
Investment Style. Valuentum uses its own proprietary stock-classification system.Nano-cap: Less than $50 million; Micro-cap: Between $50 million and $200 million;Small-cap: Between $200 million and $2 billion; Mid-cap: Between $2 billion and$10 billion; Large-cap: Between $10 billion and $200 billion; Mega-cap: Over $200billion. Blend: Firm's that we think are undervalued and exhibit high growthprospects (growth in excess of three times the rate of assumed inflation). Value:Firm's that we believe are undervalued, but do not exhibit high growth prospects.Growth: Firms that are not undervalued, in our opinion, but exhibit high growthprospects. Core: Firms that are neither undervalued nor exhibit high growthprospects.
Fair Value Range. The fair value range represents an upper bound and lower bound,between which we would consider the firm to be fairly valued. The range considers ourestimate of the firm's fair value and the margin of safety suggested by the volatility ofkey valuation drivers, including revenue, gross margin, earnings before interest, andenterprise free cash flow (the determinants behind our ValueRisk™ rating).
DCF Valuation. We opine on the firm's valuation based on our DCF process. Firmsthat are trading with an appropriate discount to our fair value estimate receive anUNDERVALUED rating. Firms that are trading within our fair value range receive aFAIRLY VALUED rating, while firms that are trading above the upper bound of ourfair value range receive an OVERVALUED rating.
Company Vitals. In this section, we list key financial information and the sector andindustry that Valuentum assigns to the stock. The P/E-Growth (5-yr), or PEG ratio,divides the current share price by last year's earnings (EPS) and then divides thatquotient by our estimate of the firm's 5-year EPS growth rate. The estimatednormalized diluted EPS and estimated normalized EBITDA represent the five-yearforward average of these measures used in our discounted cash flow model. The P/Eon estimated normalized EPS divides the current share price by estimated normalizeddiluted EPS. The EV/estimated normalized EBITDA considers the current enterprisevalue of the company and divides it by estimated normalized EBITDA. EV is definedas the firm's market capitalization plus total debt, minority interest, preferred stockless cash and cash equivalents.
Relative Value. We compare the firm's forward price-to earnings (PE) ratio and itsprice/earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio to that of its peers. If both measures fall below thepeer median, the firm receives an ATTRACTIVE rating. If both are above the peermedian, the firm receives an UNATTRACTIVE rating. Any other combination resultsin a NEUTRAL rating.
ValueCreation™. This is a proprietary Valuentum measure. ValueCreation™indicates the firm's historical track record in creating economic value for shareholders,taking the average difference between ROIC (without goodwill) and the firm'sestimated WACC during the past three years. The firm's performance is measured alongthe scale of EXCELLENT, GOOD, POOR, and VERY POOR. Those firms withEXCELLENT ratings have a demonstrated track record of creating economic value,while those that register a VERY POOR mark have been destroying economic value.
Business Quality Matrix. We compare the firm's ValueCreation™ and ValueRisk™ratings. The box is an easy way for investors to quickly assess the business quality ofa company. Firms that generate economic profits with little operating variabilityscore near the top right of the matrix.
Timeliness Matrix. We compare the company's recent stock performance relative tothe market benchmark with our assessment of its valuation. Firms that areexperiencing near-term stock price outperformance and are undervalued by ourestimate may represent timely buys.
The information contained in this report is not represented or warranted to be accurate, correct, complete, or timely. This report is for informational purposes only and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell a security. Before acting on any information in this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice. Assumptions, opinions, and estimates are based on our judgment as of the date of the report and are subject to change without notice. Valuentum is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of this report. Redistribution is prohibited without written permission. To license Valuentum research, contact us at [email protected].
ValueRisk™. This is a proprietary Valuentum measure. ValueRisk™ indicates thehistorical volatility of key valuation drivers, including revenue, gross margin, earningsbefore interest, and enterprise free cash flow. The standard deviation of each measure iscalculated and scaled against last year's measure to arrive at a percentage deviation foreach item. These percentage deviations are weighted equally to arrive at thecorresponding fair value range for each stock, measured in percentage terms. The firm'sperformance is measured along the scale of LOW, MEDIUM, HIGH, and VERY HIGH.The ValueRisk™ rating for each firm also determines the fundamental beta of eachfirm along the following scale: LOW (0.85), MEDIUM (1), HIGH (1.15), VERY HIGH(1.3).
Range of Potential Outcomes. The firm's margin of safety is shown in the graphicof a normal distribution. We consider a firm to be undervalued if its stock price fallsalong the green line and overvalued if the stock price falls along the red line. Weconsider the firm to be fairly valued if its stock price falls along the yellow line.
Return on Invested Capital. At Valuentum, we place considerable emphasis onreturn on invested capital (both with and without goodwill). The measure focuses onthe return (earnings) the company is generating on its operating assets and is superiorto return on equity and return on assets, which can be skewed by a firm's leverage orexcess cash balance, respectively. ValueTrend™. This is a proprietary Valuentum measure. ValueTrend™ indicates the
trajectory of the firm's return on invested capital (ROIC). Firms that earned an ROIClast year that was greater than the 3-year average of the measure earn a POSITIVErating. Firms that earned an ROIC last year that was less than the 3-year average of themeasure earn a NEGATIVE rating.
Technical Evaluation. We evaluate a firm's near-term and medium-term movingaverages and money flow index (MFI) to assign each firm a rating along thefollowing scale: VERY BULLISH, BULLISH, NEUTRAL, BEARISH, and VERYBEARISH.
Cash Flow Generation. Firms' cash flow generation capacity are measured along thescale of STRONG, MEDIUM, and WEAK. A firm with a 3-year historical free cashflow margin (free cash flow divided by sales) greater than 5% receives a STRONGrating, while firms earning less than 1% of sales as free cash flow receive a WEAKrating.
Stock Price Relative Strength. We assess the perfomance of the company's stockduring the past quarter, 13 weeks, relative to an ETF that mirrors the aggregateperformance of constituents of the stock market. Firms are measured along the scaleof STRONG, NEUTRAL, and WEAK. Companies that have outperformed themarket index by more than 2.5% during this 13-week period receive a STRONGrating, while firms that trailed the market index by more than 2.5% during this 13-week period receive a WEAK rating.
Financial Leverage. Based on the firm's normalized debt-to-EBITDA metric, we rank firms on the following scale: LOW, MEDIUM, and HIGH. Companies with a normalized debt-to-EBITDA ratio below 1.5 receive a LOW score, while those with a measure above 3 receive a HIGH score.
Money Flow Index (MFI). The MFI is a technical indicator that measures buyingand selling pressure based on both price and volume. Traders typically use thismeasure to identify potential reversals with overbought and oversold levels. We use a14-week measure to rank firms along the following scale: EXTREMELYOVERBOUGHT (>90), OVERBOUGHT (80-90), NEUTRAL (20-80), OVERSOLD(10-20), EXTREMELY OVERSOLD (0-10).
Upside/Downside Volume. Heavy volume on up days and lower volume on down days suggests that institutions are heavily participating in a stock's upward advance. We use the trailing 14-week average of upside and downside volume to calculate an informative ratio. We rank each firm's U/D volume ratio along the following scale: BULLISH, IMPROVING, DETERIORATING, and BEARISH.
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BDX Rating History Price Fair Value VBI9-Jul-21 $249.62 $238.00 76-Nov-20 $236.62 $231.00 313-May-20 $261.92 $226.00 620-Sep-19 $253.55 $232.00 311-Feb-19 $244.51 $218.00 610-Sep-18 $258.35 $210.00 727-Apr-18 $234.26 $194.00 75-Jan-18 $222.08 $189.00 615-Sep-17 $195.34 $164.00 412-May-17 $184.62 $161.00 76-Jan-17 $167.89 $161.00 415-Jul-16 $175.08 $161.00 726-Feb-16 $149.64 $161.00 611-Sep-15 $135.98 $168.00 3
Disclosures, Disclaimers & Additional SourcesTo send us feedback or if you have any questions, please contact us at [email protected]. We're always looking for ways to better serve your investment needs and improve our research.
Copyright (c) 2017 by Valuentum, Inc. All rights reserved.No part of this publication may be reproduced in any form or by any means.The information contained in this report is not represented or warranted to be accurate, correct,complete, or timely. This report is for informational purposes only and should not be considered asolicitation to buy or sell any security. No warranty or guarantee may be created or extended bysales or promotional materials, whether by email or in any other format. The securities or strategiesmentioned herein may not be suitable for all types of investors. The information contained in thisreport does not constitute any advice, especially on the tax consequences of making any particularinvestment decision. This material is not intended for any specific type of investor and does nottake into account an investor's particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs. Thisreport is not intended as a recommendation of the security highlighted or any particular investmentstrategy. Before acting on any information found in this report, readers should consider whethersuch an investment is suitable for their particular circumstances, perform their own due-diligence,and if necessary, seek professional advice. The sources of the data used in this report are believed by Valuentum to be reliable, but the data’saccuracy, completeness or interpretation cannot be guaranteed. Assumptions, opinions, andestimates are based on our judgment as of the date of the report and are subject to change withoutnotice. Valuentum is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the useof this report and accepts no liability for how readers may choose to utilize the content. In no eventshall Valuentum be liable to any party for any direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory,punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including, withoutlimitation, lost income or lost profits and opportunity costs) in connection with any use of theinformation contained in this document. Investors should consider this report as only a single factorin making their investment decision. Valuentum is not a money manager, is not a registered investment advisor, and does not offerbrokerage or investment banking services. Valuentum has not received any compensation from thecompany or companies highlighted in this report. Valuentum, its employees, independentcontractors and affiliates may have long, short or derivative positions in the securities mentionedherein. Information and data in Valuentum’s valuation models and analysis may not capture allsubjective, qualitative influences such as changes in management, business and political trends, orlegal and regulatory developments. Redistribution is prohibited without written permission. Readersshould be aware that information in this work may have changed between when this work waswritten or created and when it is read. There is risk of substantial loss associated with investing infinancial instruments. Valuentum's company-specific forecasts used in its discounted cash flow model are rules-based.These rules reflect the experience and opinions of Valuentum's analyst team. Historical data used inour valuation model is provided by Xignite and from other publicly available sources includingannual and quarterly regulatory filings. Stock price and volume data is provided by Xignite. Nowarranty is made regarding the accuracy of any data or any opinions. Valuentum's valuation modelis based on sound academic principles, and other forecasts in the model such as inflation and theequity risk premium are based on long-term averages. The Valuentum proprietary automated text-generation system creates text that will vary by company and may often change for the samecompany upon subsequent updates. Valuentum uses its own proprietary stock investment style and industry classification systems. Peercompanies are selected based on the opinions of the Valuentum analyst team. Research reports anddata are updated periodically, though Valuentum assumes no obligation to update its reports,opinions, or data following publication in any form or format. Performance assessment ofValuentum metrics, including the Valuentum Buying Index, is ongoing, and we intend to updateinvestors periodically, though Valuentum assumes no obligation to do so. Not all information isavailable on all companies. There may be a lag before reports and data are updated for stock splitsand stock dividends. Past simulated performance, whether backtested or walk-forward or other, is not a guarantee offuture results. For general information about Valuentum's products and services, please contact usat [email protected] or visit our website at www.valuentum.com.
The High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio, the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio are not real money portfolios. Any performance, including that in the Nelson Exclusive publication, is hypothetical and does not represent actual trading. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
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Valuentum has not owned and does not own any shares of stocks mentioned on its website or in this report. President of Investment Research Brian Nelson does not own any shares of stocks mentioned on Valuentum's website or in this report. Majority share owner of Valuentum, Elizabeth Nelson, currently has exposure to HON in her retirement account.
If an independent contributor or employee mentions a stock he or she owns, we disclose it in the article/report that mentions the security. Please view individual articles on Valuentum's website for additional disclosures. Contact us to learn more about Valuentum's editorial policies.
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