BATTERIES FOR STATIONARY ENERGY STORAGE IN GERMANY…kanada.ahk.de/.../Boris_Alex_-_Presentation_GTAI.pdf · · 2016-12-08BATTERIES FOR STATIONARY ENERGY STORAGE IN GERMANY: MARKET

BATTERIES FOR STATIONARY ENERGY STORAGE IN GERMANY:MARKET STATUS & OUTLOOK

5TH CANADIAN GERMAN SMART GRID &

ENERGY STORAGE SERIES

DECEMBER 2016Boris Alex

Director Canada

www.gtai.de

© Germany Trade & Invest www.gtai.de 2

Agenda

1. Germany’s Energy Transition

2. Residential PV-battery systems

3. How Germany Trade & Invest supports you


Greenhouse gas emission targets in GermanyNew sectoral targets for 2030

GHG emission reduction targets in Germany*

In million tonnes CO2 equivalent

Reduction targets by sector

In million tonnes CO2 equivalent

2020, 2040, 2050: “Energiekonzept 2010“; 2030: “Klimaschutzplan 2050”. Other values: Federal Environment Agency, 2016. *Values shown are top end of target ranges: e.g.

2030 target for energy is 175-183 Mt; 2050 target range is 80-95% reduction. GTAI accepts no liability for the actuality, accuracy, or completeness of the information provided.

12

48

10

43

94

1

90

2

74

9

56

2

37

4

24

9.6

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1990 2000 2010 2014 2020 2030 2040 2050

466358

183

209

119

72

163

160

98

283

181

143

88

72

61

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1990 2014 2030Energy Buildings TransportIndustry Agriculture Other

base year

-40%

-55%

-70%

-80%


Development of Renewables in GermanyMore than 180,000 GWh are generated by renewables today.

Power Generation by Renewables in Germany

(in GWh, 1990-2015)

Source: Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy 2016

PhotovoltaicsPhotovoltaics

Wind PowerWind Power

BiomassBiomass

HydropowerHydropower


Energy Efficiency

Smart Grids

Energy Storage

Sector Coupling

…

The German Energy Transition

Reduction of energy consumption

2050 goal:

-50% compared to 2008

Increasing share of renewable electricity

2050 goal:

Share of 80%


Agenda





Development of Renewable Energy Systems

Sources: 50HertzT, TenneT, Amprion, TransnetBW, internal data

Total capacity of renewables

(End 2000)

~ 30,000 installations

Wind energy

PV

Biomass

The circle diameter is proportional

to the electrical capacity


(End 2005)


Wind energy

PV

Biomass




(End 2010)


Wind energy

PV

Biomass




(End 2014)

~ 1.500.000 installations

Wind energy

PV

Biomass




From PV Grid-Parity to Battery-Parity in 2018Saving energy costs while becoming 60-80% energy independent

Anticipated development of electricity costs for PV and PV+Battery

(2010 – 2020, in EUR/kWh¹)

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

Electricity cost for PV Electricity costs for PV+Battery ² Electricity price for households (2.5-5 MWh/a)

Prognosis

Note: ¹Model calculation for rooftop systems, based on 802 kWh/kWp (Frankfurt/Main), 100% financing, 6% interest rate, 20 year term, 2% p.a. O&M costs. ² based on 5,000

cycles, C2, 87% efficiency. Sources: Own calculation; System Prices: BSW 2016; Model Calculation: Deutsche Bank 2010; Electricity Prices 2007-2015: Eurostat 2016; Electricity

Prices 2016-2020: own estimate at 0.29ct/kWh.

PV-energy is cheaper than socket price.

Customers get 30-40% independent.

PV+storage is cheaper than socket price.

Customers get 60-80% independent.


Development of PV Systems in GermanyThe private household segment sees stable development.

Number of PV system installations by segment

(2015 – September 2016)

Source Federal Network Agency 2016

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

< 10 kW 10 to 50 kW 50 to 250kW 250 to 1MW > 1MW


PV-Batteries in Germany: ~41k systems installed16k systems sold in 2015 alone

Note: *preliminary data; **estimates; Source: KfW 2016, BSW 2016

• Market CAGR [2013; 2016]:

97%

• More and more battery

customers use the KfW

incentive program

• Punctual increase in demand

during Q4/2015 due to fading

incentive program from KfW

• The NEW incentive program

from KfW has started in

March 2016 and will be

available until end of 2018

Number of PV-battery systems installed in Germany

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

cumulated

number of

units

number of

units

KfW-supported Non-KfW** Cumulated installations **


Incentives supporting storage projectsVarious incentives are available for storage facilities:

Target group Description Conditions Program ID

Private

consumersInvestment grants up to 25% and low interest

loans for PV-connected storage with grid

connection and data management systems

Budget: €30 million

until 2018

KfW 275

Private

consumers

For Energy storage combined with renewable

generators

KfW 207

& 274

Companies in

Germany

For large-scale investments of large enterprises in

the German Energiewende (energy supply,

efficiency, storage and transmission)

Loans of €25 – 100

million

KfW 291

Companies in

Germany

Investment grants up to 30% and low interest

loans for large-scale pilot projectsKfW 230

Municipal

utilities and PPPsFor extension and new construction of storage

projects

€50 million loan limit KfW 204

Municipalities For extension and new construction of storage

projects

Interest rate @ 0.6 –

1.3% up to 30 years

KfW 203

In addition: Electricity storage facilities are exempt from grid tariffs, EEG levies and, in the

case of pumped hydro, also electricity taxes.


Support for home storage: KfW incentive (2016)Newly introduced in March 2016: End-customers can access attractive

financing plus a 25% grant on battery purchase from gov. owned KfW

• The promotion is valid for photovoltaic

systems with less than 30 kWp power,

installed after Dec 2012

• The maximum power output of the PV

system to the grid connection point must

be limited to 50 % of installed peak

capacity (the remaining 50% can be used

for storage)

• The battery storage system must come

with a time value replacement warranty

for a period of 10 years

• The professional and reliable

commissioning must be done by a

certified installer

• The grant for the eradication of the KfW

loan is initially 25% and decreases every

six months each mid and end of year by

3 percentage points until 2018:

01.03.2016 - 30.06.2016 25 %

01.07.2016 - 31.12 2016 22 %

01.01.2017 - 30.06.2017 19 %

01.07.2017 - 31.12 2017 16 %

01.01.2018 - 30.06.2018 13 %

01.07.2018 - 31.12 2018 10 %

Source: KfW 2016


Solar Invest: Support for storage in ThuringiaIntroduced in November 2016: appealing funding scheme supporting

PV and storage systems for houses and apartment buildings.

• Only for projects realized in Thuringia

• Funding available for:

− Investments in new stationary energy

storage systems (batteries) with the

purpose of storing PV electricity

− Investments in new seasonal energy

storage systems (hot water storage,

cold storage, power-to-heat-systems) or

expansion/upgrade of such systems

• System requirements:

− own-consumption rate of at least 60%

− The battery storage system must come

with a time value replacement

warranty for a period of 8 years

• The grant is allowed for 80% of

expenditures for the storage system, for

services by architects/engineers (max.

10% of manufacturing costs) and for

consulting services

• Maximum amount granted: EUR 100,000

• Promotion not applicable to

manufacturers of battery storage, self-

built systems, pilot projects and used

systems

• Promotion valid until December 2019.

Note: Other investments/activities funded by the program include investments in new PV systems for own-consumption or in apartment buildings; additional investments for PV

systems in apartment buildings (management/ measuring/ control/ accounting systems); consulting services regarding PV systems in apartment buildings or tendering

procedures according to EEG. Source: Thüringer Aufbaubank 2016.


More private PV customers decide for a batteryAlmost all of them ask their installer about battery options

Number of newly installed PV systems vs. number of newly installed battery

systems

Note: Timing of PV system purchase and battery purchase is not corresponding: PV systems are already installed and registered with the Federal Network Agency. PV batteries

column shows approval time of KfW incentive, purchase might be later.* estimates **preliminary data; Source: Federal Network Agency 2016; KfW 2016, BSW 2016

• An increasing share

of PV customers

include a storage

system

• Q3 2015-Q1 2016:

run on battery

systems due to

expiration of

incentive program

• Q2 2016:

Announcement of

details for new KfW

incentive program

5%

11%

25% 25%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Number of PV systems (<30 kWp)

Number of PV-batteries, excluding retrofit*

Share of new PV systems installed with batteries (right ordinate), yearly average*

2013

2014

2015 2016


Falling battery prices make storage profitableThe cost of Li-systems decreased by ~18% p.a. in the past 2 years

System cost

per usable kWh

(€/kWh)1

-18% p.a.

n=8n=18 n=152 n=86 n=303 n=251 n=480 n=716 n=120 n=309

1 incl. VAT, excl. installation

Source: RWTH Aachen 2016 (Monitoring Report for KfW storage program)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

Pb Li Pb Li Pb Li Pb Li Pb Li Pb Li

H1 2013 H2 2013 H1 2014 H2 2014 H1 2015 H2 2015

Standard Deviation


Behind the meter storage: TrendsLithium-, AC-Systems and Retrofit installations rising

Source: RWTH Aachen 2016 (Monitoring Report for KfW storage program)

Note: Based on number of Kfw registered systems. KfW registered PV-storage systems make up around 60% of the total PV-storage market

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Installation type

System design

Battery technology

Retrofit:

18%

DC-System: 42%

Together with new PV-system: 82%

AC-System: 58%

Lead-acid: 27% Lithium: 73%


The German PV-storage system market 2015South and Western Germany are the traditional strongholds of PV

installations. Bavaria claims around 30% of all PV-storage installations.

Regional distribution of PV-storage systems

Mai 2013 - December 2015

Note: includes all PV-storage system registered with KfW between Mai 2013 and March 2015/December 2015; KfW registered PV-storage system make up around 50% of the

total PV-storage market; Source: KfW Speichermonitoring, ISEA/RWTH Aachen 2015, 2016


The German PV-storage system market 2015Sonnen, DEV (Senec) and SMA leading the market

Note: includes all PV-storage system registered with KfW between Mai 2013 and December 2015; KfW registered PV-storage system make up around 50% of the total PV-

storage market; Source: KfW Speichermonitoring, ISEA/RWTH Aachen 2016

sonnenBatterie

19%

Senec

16%

SMA

15%

E3DC

11%

Nedap

5%

LG

4%

Samsung SDI

4%

IBC

4%

Varta

2%

Fronius

2%

Solarworld

2%

RWE

2%Sony

2%

Kostal

1%Neeovoltaic

1%

Other

10%

Market share of KfW-

supported PV-storage systems

by manufacturer


German PV potential without storage: 100 GWp14% total German electricity demand could be met by direct PV-

consumption without storage (� 76 TWh/a = 80-100 GWp PV):

Source: UBS 2013

4.8

1.3

1.8

2.2

3.4

6.2

7.8

3.6

37.4

0 20 40 60 80 100

Other

Energy intensive

Plastics

Automotive

Food/beverages

Mechanical engineering

Other

Producing Companies

Construction

Hotels,restaurants,etc

Public buildings

Agricultural

Office buildings

Retail

Apartments

Family Homes

TWh/a

Potential own-

consumption with PV

Total electricity demand

in the sector

Residential: 29%

Total: 140 TWh

PV Potential: 41 TWh

Commercial: 18%

Total: 133 TWh


Industrial: 4%

Total: 251 TWh



German PV potential with storage: >400 GWpThe current building structure in Germany would allow around 200

GWp of installed capacity on PV suitable rooftops and facades

Usable area for the installation of PV systems in Germany (km²)

Source: Fraunhofer IWES 2013

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400

Along highways

Facade

Along railroads

Sealed area

Rooftops

km²

Total: 2845 km²

(equals around 400 GWp)


Gigantic PV-battery retrofit potentialMore than 1 million existing PV systems could add storage by 2033:

Source: BMU 2014

Installed PV-Capacity exiting 20 Feed-in tariff period [MWp]

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033

32 GWp with 1.4 million PV Systems, thereof around 1 m households

Year

PV capacity

going out of

FIT [MWp]

2021 76

2022 110

2023 110

2024 139

2025 670

2026 951

2027 843

2028 1,271

2029 1,950

2030 3,794

2031 7,406

2032 7,500

2033 7,643


0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Number of new battery systems with new PV installations Number of new battery systems with retrofit installations

The German PV-storage system market outlookMore than 50,000 home storage systems per year in Germany by 2020

Estimated number of newly installed Home PV-battery systems in Germany

Note: assumptions: new annual PV installations 2015-2020: 1.4 GWp

Source: year 2015: Federal Network Agency, KfW Speichermonitoring, 2016; years 2016-2020: own calculation and estimate, 2016

# of units


Agenda





Germany Trade & InvestTwo headquarters in Germany – 50 locations worldwide

Chicago

New York

San Francisco

Toronto

Washington

Buenos Aires

Caracas

Mexico City

Santiago de Chile

Sao Paulo

Athens

Brussels

London

Madrid

Milan

Paris

Stockholm

Johannesburg

Cairo

Nairobi

Tunis

Bangkok

Beijing

Hanoi

Hong Kong

Jakarta

Kuala Lumpur

Mumbai

New Delhi

Seoul

Shanghai

Taipeh

Tokyo

Sydney

Tel Aviv

Berlin

Bonn

Dubai

Istanbul

Belgrade

Budapest

Bucharest

Helsinki

Kiev

Moscow

Prague

Riga

Warsaw

Zagreb


Germany Trade & InvestOne-stop agency for international investors

• Preparation and coordination of

site visits

• Cost factor assessment

• Finance & incentives consulting

• Information on tax & legal issues

• Link to business partners, local

authorities, and service

providers

• Facilitation of administrative

permits

• Support in negotiating with

cooperation partners

• PR support

• Recruitment assistance

ImplementationDecisionStrategy

• Identification of business

opportunities

• Competitor profiling

• Determination of project-

specific location factors

• Macro location analysis


The Role of Germany Trade & InvestClose support throughout the entire investment process

Example: Milestones of a typical manufacturing project

European

location

analysis

(long list)

Detailed site

evaluation

Initial

site visits

Re-evaluation

of site

analysis

(short list)

In-depth

site visit

(LOIs)

Incentive

comparison

Detailed

incentives

assessment

Incentive

calculation

Approval of

incentives

Incentives

application

Negotiation of

incentives

(LOI)

Meeting with

financing

partners

Negotiation of

Conditions

(Term Sheet)

Building and

Environmental

permit

Discussion

about

infrastructure

upgrades

Detailed

site matrix

(plot analysis)

Meeting with

engineering

companies

Start of

construction

Utility prices

and reliability

comparison

LOIs for

utility supply

Discussion

of utility

requirements

Site Decision.

MoU

Advice on

financial

structure

Financial

agreement

Site

Selection

Incentives

Financing

Utilities

Engineering

Months (est.): 0 2 4 6 8 T


Contact Us

Germany Trade & Invest is the economic development agency of the Federal Republic of Germany. The company helps create and secure extra employment

opportunities, strengthening Germany as a business location. With more than 50 offices in Germany and abroad and its network of partners throughout the world,

Germany Trade & Invest supports German companies setting up in foreign markets, promotes Germany as a business location and assists foreign

companies setting up in Germany.

Supported by the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy on the basis of a decision by the German Bundestag.

© Germany Trade & Invest

All market data provided is based on the most current market information available at the time of publication.

Germany Trade & Invest accepts no liability for the actuality, accuracy, or completeness of the information provided.

Boris Alex

Director Canada

T +1 416 598 8813

[email protected]

480 University Avenue, Suite 1500

Toronto, Ontario M5G 1V2

Documents

BATTERIES FOR STATIONARY ENERGY STORAGE IN GERMANY…kanada.ahk.de/.../Boris_Alex_-_Presentation_GTAI.pdf · · 2016-12-08BATTERIES FOR STATIONARY ENERGY STORAGE IN GERMANY: MARKET