Base-500kV-network in 2020 [3] Optimization study onopen_jicareport.jica.go.jp/pdf/11761772_46.pdf · Nha Trang Nam Theun 2 ... base-500kV-network in 2020 Central 1,300 MW N-0

1

1

[3] Optimization study on network planning

Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA)

2

Base-500kV-network in 2020

2010: Double Circuits from North to South2020: Power Grids in North and South RegionSeries CapacitorsPower Flow

from North to Center & South Region tending to grow uneven Distribution of Hydropower and Coal-fired Power Plants

THAILAND

existing220kV

- 2010

500kVTransmission Line

- 2020

existing

Base-500kV-network in 2020

　　

YalyPlei Ku

Da Nhim

Phu Lam

LAOSNORTHERN AREA

VIET NAM

CHINA

CAMBODIA

Quang Ninh

Soc Son

Nha Trang

Nam Theun 2

Ban Paam

SOUTHERN AREA

CENTRAL AREA

Lai Chau

HOA BINH

Quang Tri

Da Nang

Sam Bor

Tanh Dinh

O Mon

Dong Nai

Ha Tinh

Nho Quang

Son La

Phu MyDi Linh

Dien Nguyentu

THAILAND

4

500 kV series capacitors

Possibility of Shaft-twist Vibration stopping GeneratorsNecessary for EVN:

Interactive Studies between Series Capacitors and Generators Determining Countermeasures

5

Evaluation of system reliability Criteria

N-0Power Supply is possible on Normal State of System.

N-1Power Supply is still possible; even if a Circuit Fault happened.

6

Permissible power flow in base-500kV-network in 2020

Between North and Center RegionN-0

1,300 MW

N-10 MW

When a large Amount of Power is produced in Central Region

2

7

Permissible power flow in base-500kV-network in 2020

Central1 , 3 0 0MW

N-0North

South

Central0 MW

N-1North

South

Limit of Thermal Capacity

8

Permissible power flow in north-center 2 circuitscenter-south 3 circuits

Central1 , 6 0 0 MW

North

South

Central1 , 1 0 0 MW

North

South

N-0 N-1

Limit by the static stability

Limit of Thermal Capacity

9

Summary of reinforcement scenarios of 500kV-network up to 2020

Central –

South

North –

Central

3

3

2

2

Number of Circuits

4

3

3

2N-1N-0

2,2002,200467 Case 4

1,1002,200[- about 20]

350[+ about 50]

Case 3

1,1001,600[- about 10]

82[+ about 10]

Case 2

01300[-]

-[-]

Base-500 kV-Network

Limit Power Flow North - Central

(MW)[Reduced Expenditure]

(mil. USD/y)

Construction Cost

(mil. USD)[Increased

Expenditure](mil. USD/y)

Reinforcement Scenarios

10

　　

Thac Ba

PhaLaiUongBi

Hai Phong

Ninh BinhThanh Hoa

ChemHa Dong

Ha TinhVinh

Dong Hoi

Yaly VinhSonPlei Ku

QuyNhon

Song Hinh

ThacMoDa Nhim

BaoLocTri An

BaRia

TraNocRachGiaCaiLay

Phu Lam

THAILAND

LAOS

NORTHERN AREA

VIET NAM

CHINA

CAMBODIA

Be

KrongBuk

Dinh

Mai Dong

Hoc Mon

LEGEND

500kV Transmission Line (existing)220kV Transmission Line (existing)

500kV Substation (existing)220kV Substation (existing)Hydropower Plant (existing)Thermal Power Plant (existing)

Nho Quang

Di Linh

Phu MyNha Be

Thuong Tin

Quang Ninh

Dong Nai3&4

Nhon TrachSong May

500kV Transmission Line (- 2010)

500kV Substation (- 2010)

500kV Transmission Line (- 2020)

500kV Substation (- 2020)

Son La

Soc Son

Nha Tran

Dien Nguyentu

Nam Theun 2

Ban Paam

SOUTHERN AREA

CENTRAL AREA

Lai Chau

HOABINH

Vie Tri

Quang Tri

Da Nang

Doc Soi

Sam Bor

Tanh Dinh

O Mon

Center-South 3 circuits

500 kV Plei Ku - NhaTrang

ACSR 330 mm2 x 4 x 1cct 300 km

Construction Cost : about 82 mil. USD

11

Location of PSPP in north region

Hoa Binh

Son La

Nho Quang

Soc SonViet TriPSPP

500 kV System in North Region

12

Study conditionsTwo Routes Passing near PSPP Site 500kV for Transmission Lines of PSPP (economical)No Room for Installation of New Bays in Hoa Binh S/S

3

13

Study conditionsIn Case of a Circuit Fault

Remote Generator Shedding through Telecommunication System not allowed Power Control of PSPP allowed

14

Study conditionsA Drop of 1,000 MW during Off-peak Period is acceptable or not.

Cases of Connection with: One CircuitDouble Circuits

15

Optimum method of connection

In Comparison of Power LossesPossible Connections from the Viewpoint of System Reliability

16

Transmission Line with a Single Circuit

Hoa Binh

Nho Quang

Soc SonViet TriPSPP

Son La Single Circuit to South Single Circuit to North

17

Transmission Line with Two Circuits

Double Circuits to South

Double Circuits to North

Single Circuit to North and South

18

Difficulty in Determining Optimum Connection

No Detailed Route Design of Transmission Lines from Son La

Difference of Cost Merit of Power-Losses between South Route Case and North Route Case　

Least-loss-case depending on Operation of Generators during Off-peak Time

4

19

Further Study

In comparison of:Cost Merit of Power LossesConstruction Cost Differences among Five Cases

In consideration with:Admissibility of PSPP Drop in Case of a Single Circuit FaultRoute of Transmission Lines from Son La Operation of Generators in North System

20

The End of Session

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1

[4] Financial study


2

Approach for financial study

Study items

No.1:Financial situation of EVNNo.2:Financial prospects of EVNNo.3:Financial impact of the JICA study plan No.4:Fund raising methods

3

Study items No.1

Financial situation of EVNPast financial performance

ProfitabilityFinancial stabilityCash flow 　

4

Major financial statisticsPast profitability : generally stable

Ne t S ale s (B illio n VND)

0

5 ,0 00

10 ,0 00

15 ,0 00

20 ,0 00

25 ,0 00

1 997 1 998 1999 20 00 2 001 2002

Pro fitability Ratio

0 .0 %

5 .0 %

10 .0 %

15 .0 %

20 .0 %

25 .0 %

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Gross Margin Ratio Ope ratin g P ro fit Ratio

Ne t P ro fit Ratio

5

Major financial statistics

Past financial stability : generally stable

* The balance sheet 2000 was restated in 2001

Current Ratio

0.0%

50.0%

100.0%

150.0%

200.0%

250.0%

300.0%

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Equ ity Ratio

0 .0%

10 .0%

20 .0%

30 .0%

40 .0%

50 .0%

60 .0%

70 .0%

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

6

Major financial statisticsPast cash flow : aggressive investment

Cash Flow by Activity (Bllion VND)

-15000

-10000

-5000

0

5000

10000

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

NCF From Oprating NCF From Investing

NCF From Financing Net Increase (Decrease)

2

7

Study items No.2

Financial prospects of EVNEVN financial projection for the next 6 years

Overview of the financial projectionProfitabilityCash flow 　

8

Study items No.2

Financial prospects of EVNOverview of the financial projection

Prepared by EVN finance and accounting dept.Projected period: 2003～2008Revisions of the electricity tariff：5.9￠(4/2004～), 6.5￠(4/2005～), 7.0￠(4/2006～)

Electricity demand：base case of the revised 5th M/P　

9

Financial prospects of EVNProfitability : strong growth

　EVN Projected Total Revenue

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Mill

on

US$

EVN Projected Net Income

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Mill

ion

US$

10

Financial prospects of EVNCash flow

Net cash flow: continuously low levelAnnual investment and borrowings: drastically increased from 2005EVN Projected Cashflow (1)

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Mill

ion U

S$

Self Cash Generation Net Cashflow End of Year Cash

EVN Projected Cashflow (2)

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Mill

ion

US

$

Net Investment Borrowing

11

Study items No.2

Financial prospects of EVNAnalysis of the financial projection

Profitability: strong growthCash flow: negative trend from 2006The difference of annual investment　

Comparison of Annual Investment(Million USD)

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Totala. EVN Projection 1,165 1,291 1,966 2,012 1,937 1,944 10,315b. Revised 5th M/P* 1,341 1,758 2,500 2,427 2,638 2,369 13,033c. Diff. (a.-b.) -176 -467 -534 -415 -701 -425 -2,718 * Excluded IPP Investment

12

Study items No.3

Financial impact of the JICA study planOverview of the financial simulations

Projected period : 10 years (2003-2012)Prepared statements :

income statement and cash flow statementElectricity tariff : EVN tariff scheduleLong-term investment plan : the JICA study planFuel, O&M, Power purchase costs :

estimated costs of the JICA study

3

13

Study items No.3

Financial impact of the JICA study planFinancial simulations focused on financing conditions

CASE 1 :Same financing conditions used in EVN’s

financial projection CASE 2 :Revised financing conditions 　

14

Financial simulation CASE 1

Profitability Revenue: steady growth

Net profit: steady profit for 2003-2007,

　　　　　　　　 decrease from 2007, deficit from 2010　CASE 1 : Prospective Total Revenue

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Mill

ion

US$

CASE 1 : Prospective Net Profit

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Mill

ion U

S$

15


Cash flowNet cash flow: negative from 2005

Yearend cash balance：negative from 2009

Annual debt repayment：increases every yearCASE 1 : Prospective Cash Flow (1)

-4,000

-3,000

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Mill

ion U

S$

Net Cashflow End of Year Cash

CASE 1 : Prospective Cash Flow (2)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Mill

ion U

S$

Principle Repayment Borrowing

16


Results of CASE 1Profit：

　　　Decreases from 2007, deficit from 2010Cash flow：

　　　Cash balance becomes negative at 2009 yearend, cash shortage continues

　　　Major cause of shortage is increase of annual debt repayment

Investment plan of the JICA study is not practical under the financing condition of EVN

17

Study items No.3

CASE 2 Revised financing conditions:

Extension of repayment periodNetwork projects： extend 15 to 20 yearsODA projects: extend additional 5 years

Change of fund sourceSeveral generation projects：change commercial borrowings to ODA

18


Profitability Net profit:

Deficit on 2011 only　

Slight improvement from Case 1Comparison of Net Income

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Mill

ion

US$

CASE 2 CASE 1

4

19


Cash flowInternal sources: significant improvement from CASE 1

Yearend cash balance： positive throughout projected period

Annual debt repayment： reduced in later half of projected period

Comparison of Internal Sources

-1,200

-1,000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Millio

n U

S$

CASE 2 CASE 1

Comparison of Principle Repayment

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Mill

ion U

S$

CASE 2 CASE 1

20


Results of the CASE 2Profitability：

　　　Slight improvement from CASE 1　　　Reduced interest expenses by use of ODA and internal

source fundsCash flow：

　　　Positive cash balance throughout projected period　　　Reduced annual debt repayment compared to CASE 1

Use of ODA loan and extension of repayment period are effective for implementing the investment plan of the JICA study

21

Study items No.4

Fund raising methodsUse of ODA loanExtension of debt repayment periodChange of the fund source from commercial borrowings to ODA loans for network projects

22

The End of Session

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1


[5] Peaking Power Sources Potential Study

Study Flow

Financial evaluation

Power system

Planning and

Analysis

Project design and site survey

Environmental survey

Other Peaking Power Sources

Pumped Storage Potential

Optimal Power Development Master Plan

3

Possibility of PSPP Installation

What is PSPP ?Priority candidate sites selectionOptimum installed capacityPreliminary design

4

What is PSPP? (1)Peak time

(Generating)Off Peak time

(Pumping)

Upper Reservoir

Power HouseLowerReservoir

Pumped Storage Power Plant

Customers

Factories

Hydro and Thermal Power Plants

Substation

Houses

Upper Reservoir

Power HouseLower Reservoir


Customers

Factories


Substation

Houses

Peak time

(Generating)

Off Peak time(Pumping)

Upper Reservoir

Power HouseLowerReservoir


Customers

Factories


Substation

Houses

Upper Reservoir

Power HouseLower Reservoir


Customers

Factories


Substation

Houses

5

What is PSPP? (2)

0 6 12 18 24Hour

Demand

(MW)

Improved load curve

Plant factor and Fuel efficiency of Thermal power plants are improved

Power utilized by Pumped storage power

Power generated by Pumped storage power

0 6 12 18 24Hour

Demand

(MW)Power utilized by Pumped storage power

Power generated by Pumped storage power

6



2

7

(1)Flow of PSPP Potential Study

Criteria Setting

Geographical Study

Site Survey (1)

Site Survey (2)

Preliminary design and cost estimationfor the highest priority project

38 sites 10 sites

10 sites 4 sites

4 sites 3 sites

Technical criteriaEnvironment criteria

8

Prioritization according to the 1st Site Survey Results　

Project Site Name (P5) (P11B) (JN1) (JN3) (JN１８) (JN５) (JN９) (JN６) (JS６) (JS１１)

Economic Value (US$/kW)

750 770 910 760 790 680 820 760 730 820

B / C 1.10 1.08 0.93 1.09 1.05 1.20 1.02 1.09 1.13 1.02

Tentative eveluation scores of EnvironmentalAssesment

1.0 1.0 2.0 1.2 1.9 1.2 1.7 1.4 2.0 1.4

Priority Rank AA A C AA B AA B A A B

9

Criteria for Prioritization　

ＡＡ superior and no significant and no significant

Ａ superior and some or some

Ｂ feasible and ditto or ditto

Ｃ uneconomical or significant or significant

PriorityRank

Criteria

Economyand/or Technical problems

Natural/SocialEnvironmental

negative impacts

and/or

10

Prioritization according to the 2nd Site Survey Results

Phu Yen East Phu Yen West Bac Ai1000 1000 1000230 240 350560 520 360

SocialImpacted directly :

74households（385people）

Impacted directly :300households（1700people）

Impacted directly :63households（330people）

Natural Limited directimpacts

Significant impactson aquatic system

Significant impactson ecosystem

Project cost 630　US$ / kW 700　US$ / kW 660　US$ / kWT/L cost 40 mln.US$ 45 mln.US$ 50 mln.US$

1 2 31 3 21 2 2

Environmental runkEconomical rank

Comprehensive rank

EnvironmentalImpacts

Economy

Installed Capacity(MW)Design Discharge (m3)

Effective Head (m)

Items

11

Locations of priority PSPPs

Bac Ai

Phu Yen West

Phu Yen East

12



3

13

Optimal Installed capacity(Phu Yen East)

(Pumping energy by Coal)

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

1.40

1.50

750 900 1,050

Installed Capacity (MW)

B/C

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

B-C

(m

il. U

S$

)

1,200

optimal

B/C 6 hrB/C 7 hrB/C 8 hrB-C 6 hrB-C 7 hrB-C 8 hr

14



15

Preliminary Design and Cost Estimation(Phu Yen East Optimum Case)

: 1200 MW

: 271 m3/s: 559 m: 7 hr

: 6.9 x106m3

: Full Faced Pond (Asphalt): Concrete Gravity: 3,700 m

: 185,000 m3

: Single-Stage Francis (3 x 400MW)

Waterway total length (Lt)Underground P/H Cavern VolumePump-Turbine

Upper Dam TypeLower Dam Type

Installed Capacity (P)Designed Discharge (Qd)Effective Head (Hd)Peak Duration TimeEffective Reservoir Capacity

Specifications

16

Design Drawings (General Outline)

17

Design Drawings (Upper reservoir)

18

EL.180.600

EL.185.500

EL.190.000

EL.229.500

CL of Turbine

CL of Turbine

EL.195.000

EL.200.500

EL.206.500

EL.215.500

EL.180.600

EL.200.500

EL.195.000

EL.191.000

EL.206.500

EL.229.500

EL.185.500

EL.215.500

Erection Bay

TRANSFORMER TRANSFORMER TRANSFORMER

CL of Turbine CL of Turbine CL of Turbine

Ventilation Tunnel B

Access Tunnel

Motor &Generator

Ventilation Tunnel A

Motor &Generator

Motor &GeneratorEL.200.500

EL. 195.000

EL.206.500

CABLE

Design Drawings (Powerhouse)

4

19

Design Drawings (Lower reservoir)

20

Preliminary Design and Cost Estimation(Phu Yen East)

: 720 million US$

: 600 US$/kW

: 1.17 (1.47*)

F.I.R.R. : 6.1 (7.8*) %

Unit Construction Cost

B / C

Construction Cost

* : in the case of Pumping Energy by Hydropower

Economic Evaluation

21

Development Schedule

Total Time Required : 14 yearsPreparation for F/S : 1 year

F/S & EIA : 2 years

Finance Procurement : 1 year

Detail Design : 2 years

Tender & Contract : 1 year

Construction period : 7 years

22

The End of Session

Documents

Base-500kV-network in 2020 [3] Optimization study onopen_jicareport.jica.go.jp/pdf/11761772_46.pdf · Nha Trang Nam Theun 2 ... base-500kV-network in 2020 Central 1,300 MW N-0