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AMPO TRAVEL MODEL WORK GROUP March 20, 2006. BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN COUNCIL MODEL ENHANCEMENTS FOR THE RED LINE PROJECT. BMC Enhanced Model – Background. Update to the Baltimore region travel demand model MTA provided funding Developed by William G. Allen with assistance from BMC staff - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Baltimore Metropolitan Council
BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN COUNCIL BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN COUNCIL MODEL ENHANCEMENTS FOR THE RED MODEL ENHANCEMENTS FOR THE RED
LINE PROJECT LINE PROJECT
AMPO TRAVEL MODELWORK GROUPMarch 20, 2006
Baltimore Metropolitan Council
BMC Enhanced ModelBMC Enhanced Model––BackgroundBackground• Update to the Baltimore region travel demand
model• MTA provided funding• Developed by William G. Allen with assistance from
BMC staff• Motivation/Goal
• Revised mode choice model to meet FTA technical analysis of user benefits utilizing SUMMIT
• Analysis of proposed Red Line to request New Starts funding
• Develop one regional model used for long/short range regional planning, regional conformity analysis, and FTA new starts analysis
Baltimore Metropolitan Council
BMC Modeling AreaBMC Modeling Area
BMC Model Area
MWCOG Jurisdictions in BMC Model
Baltimore Metropolitan Council
Baltimore Baltimore Region Region Highway Highway and Rail and Rail Transit Transit SystemsSystems
Baltimore Metropolitan Council
BMC Enhanced Model–ObjectivesBMC Enhanced Model–Objectives• User friendly – logical input file names• Reduce off-model data preparation• Reduce number of input files• Incorporation of 2001 NHTS data• Meet Requirements of FTA
• Remove “cliff” functions• Use same coefficients for transit and auto time• Eliminate geographic bias constants
• Produce input files for SUMMIT
Baltimore Metropolitan Council
BMC Enhanced ModelBMC Enhanced Model––StatusStatus• Draft functioning model as of February 2006• Conducting sensitivity test designed to
evaluate estimated changes in demand• BMC staff developing a further understanding
of the model through application, documentation, and development of user guide/local training session
• Extensive quality control checking of all model aspects
• Model runs in 9 to 10 hours (previous model 6 to 7 hours)
Baltimore Metropolitan Council
Trip Generation FeaturesTrip Generation Features• Demographic models
• Households by size (5)/income (4)• Urban Size (Baltimore City, DC, Montgomery, PG)• Suburban Size (All Others)• Urban Income (Baltimore City and DC)• Suburban Income (All Others)
• Workers (4)/income (4)• Workers for Washington region must be estimated
based on household size and income from PUMS• Income split is 10/15/20/55% of households (lowest to
highest)
Baltimore Metropolitan Council
Trip Generation Features (Cont’d)Trip Generation Features (Cont’d)• 10 trip purposes
• Home-Based Work, Shop, Other, and School• Non-Home-Based JTW, JAW, and OBO• Truck CV, MTK, and HTK
• Nine area types based on household and employment density
• Trip productions by rates for different HH size/income and worker/income combinations
• Trip attractions by regression equation, adjusted by area type
Baltimore Metropolitan Council
Trip Generation Features (Cont’d)Trip Generation Features (Cont’d)• Home-based I-I trip attractions normalized to
match productions• Non-home based trip attractions normalized
to productions, then productions set equal to attractions
• External trip generation based on counts/projections and distance between zone and closest external
• X-X trips based on base year trip table• Attraction split model by income
Baltimore Metropolitan Council
2000 Density Codes2000 Density Codes
Baltimore Metropolitan Council
2030 Density Codes2030 Density Codes
Baltimore Metropolitan Council
Trip Distribution FeaturesTrip Distribution Features• Composite Time
• Highway, transit (2 lowest income classes, HBW, HBS, HBO), toll
• Simulated congested time used for HBW, JTW, free-flow time for other purposes during first pass
• Two loops of speed feedback for HBW and JTW trips
• K-factors replace barrier penalties• Truck deltas applied after distribution• Truck deltas now additive, not multiplicative
Baltimore Metropolitan Council
K-Factor MapK-Factor Map
Baltimore Metropolitan Council
Mode Choice FeaturesMode Choice Features• New transit access pre-process
• TP+, ArcInfo, Microsoft Access• Create up to 9 walk links per mode, unlimited drive links
within 30 minutes• Create ½ mile buffer around local transit lines and
express bus and rail stops• Identify walk access share of each zone within buffer• Determine average walk time for bus, rail, commuter
rail, peak and off-peak• Select links from those actually used in pathbuilding
limited in number and distance/time
Baltimore Metropolitan Council
Mode Choice FeaturesMode Choice Features• New nested logit mode choice model
• Same structure for all non-school purposes• Model for school trips includes a top-level
school bus nest• Parking cost model• Three levels of auto occupancy• Three transit modes• Two access modes
Baltimore Metropolitan Council
Mode Choice Features (Continued)Mode Choice Features (Continued)• Peak and off-peak transit networks• “Freeze-dry” Washington mode choice• Dummy links for DC transit
access/egress
Baltimore Metropolitan Council
Mode Choice StructureMode Choice Structure
(B)CRail
(B)Rail
Bus
(B)Drive
(B)CRail
(B)Rail
Bus
Walk
(B)Transit
DA
(B)SR3+
SR2
(B)SR
Auto
Person
Baltimore Metropolitan CouncilMode Choice Model Structure
Legend
SR=Shared RideDA=Drive AloneCRail=Commuter Rail(B)=Carries Bias Coefficent
Baltimore Metropolitan Council
Mode Choice StructureMode Choice Structure––SchoolSchool
(B)School Bus
(B)CRail
(B)Rail
Bus
(B)Drive
(B)CRail
(B)Rail
Bus
Walk
(B)Transit
DA
(B)SR3+
SR2
(B)SR
Auto
Person
Baltimore Metropolitan CouncilMode Choice Model Structure
Legend
SR=Shared RideDA=Drive AloneCRail=Commuter Rail(B)=Carries Bias Coefficent
Baltimore Metropolitan Council
Assignment FeaturesAssignment Features• Fixed weights based on future
equilibrium assignment • First two feedback loops assign AM
peak trips (6:30-9:30 a.m.)• Final assignment for four time periods
• AM peak (6:30-9:30 a.m.)• Midday (9:30 a.m.-3:30 p.m.)• PM peak (3:30-6:30 p.m.)• Night (6:30 p.m.-6:30 a.m.
Baltimore Metropolitan Council
Assignment Features (Continued)Assignment Features (Continued)• Number of iterations
• AM peak = 14• Midday = 8• PM peak = 14 • Night =6
Baltimore Metropolitan Council
Next StepsNext Steps• Test Alternatives• Run SUMMIT• Continue checking results• Submit to FTA• Document