Balloon Safety SeminarBalloon Safety SeminarFAA Aviation Safety Center

Lakeland, FL

Daniel NoahDaniel Noah

Warning Coordination MeteorologistWarning Coordination Meteorologist

National Weather Service – Ruskin, FLNational Weather Service – Ruskin, FL

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ovNational Weather Service

#1 Mission: Issue warnings for hazardous weather for the protection of life and property

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ovNWS in Ruskin, FL

• 26 Employees• 24 hours a day/365 days a year• One of 122 local offices

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ovArea of Responsibility

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ovAmerica’s Weather Service

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ovWarn for Hazardous Weather

Tornadoes Waterspouts Damaging Wind

Flash Floods Large Hail

• River Floods• Fire Weather• Marine• Winter Storms• and more

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ovPartners in the Warning Process

• Emergency Management• Manage resources to lessen affects of storm

• Television & Radio• #1 source of weather info

• Newspapers • Document storms and provide preparedness material

Our warnings mean nothing if people don’t hear it or know how to respond!

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ovWhen is a Warning Issued?

1.Radar detects the severe weather

2.Trained SKYWARNsevere weather spotterreports severe weather

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ovNOAA Weather Radio

• Warns of natural and man made hazards• Alerts you even when you’re sleeping• New radios can be programmed just for your county

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ovAviation Forecasting

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ovhttp://aviationweather.gov

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ovhttp://aviationweather.gov

• Terminal Forecasts• METARS• Pilot Reports• Significant Weather Progs• AIRMETS and SIGMETS

• Icing• Turbulence• IFR• Convective

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ovTAF Forecasts

KTPA 161120Z 161212 20012KT P6SM BKN100 FM1500 28012g18KT P6SM VCTS BKN050CB FM1800 32015g22KT 5SM –SHRA BR BKN030 TEMPO 1822 1SM TSRA BKN015CB FM0000 33012KT P6SM BKN040FM0400 36008KT P6SM SCT040=

- Tampa International Airport- St Pete/Clearwater Airport- Sarasota/Bradenton Airport- Fort Myers Airport- Regional Southwest Airport

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ovhttp://weather.gov

Click on Area ofInterest

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ovNWS Tampa Homepage

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ovNWS Tampa Homepage

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ovNWS Tampa Homepage

Click on versionyou want to look at

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ovHazardous Weather OutlookHAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL454 AM EST THU FEB 17 2005

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-171552-CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER-454 AM EST THU FEB 17 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTFLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREAS UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.A FEW LOCATIONS MAY SEE LOCALLY DENSE FOG. MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOWDOWN...USE LOW BEAM HEADLIGHTS...AND MAINTAIN A SAFE FOLLOWINGDISTANCE BETWEEN VEHICLES WHEN ENCOUNTER FOGGY AREAS.

A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL PROVIDEINCREASING WINDS THAT WILL BE NORTH AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS TONIGHT ON THEWATERS 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. A SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION IS INEFFECT FOR THOSE WATERS TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:

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ovForecast DiscussionWEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL303 AM EST THU FEB 17 2005

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - SAT)...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUESOVER THE GULF WITH NEARLY ZONAL ALOFT OVER THE AREA. AN UPPER TROUGHFROM HUDSON BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES WILL SWING EAST TO NORTHERN QUEBECAND NEW ENGLAND BY THE END OF TODAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT/ LOCATEDOVER THE SE ATLANTIC COAST TO THE GULF COAST/ SOUTH OVER THE CWFATODAY. LIMITED MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL KEEP THE EFFECTS OF THE FRONTALPASSAGE CONFINED TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND WINDS SHIFTINGAND PICKING UP SOME AS THE FRONT WORKS IT'S WAY DOWN THE CWFA. HIGHPRESSURE DROPS FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GULF COAST TODAY AND THENSLIDES INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BY SAT. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILLBE CLOSE TO CLIMO AND THEN DIP DOWN BELOW CLIMO UNTIL THEY WARM BACKUP TO NEAR NORMAL FOR SAT AFTERNOON.

A FEW LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING SOME LOW CLOUDS OR DENSE FOG BUTEXPECT COVERAGE TO BE LIMITED AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE 400 AMZONES. SHOULD COVERAGE INCREASE WILL HANDLE WITH A NOWCAST ORSTATEMENT.

.LONG TERM (SAT NIGHT-WED)...HIGH PRES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND SESTATES WILL MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS A SHORT WAVEMOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE HIGH WILL THEN EXTEND FROM THEWESTERN ATLANTIC WESTWARD ACROSS FL AND INTO THE GULF MON INTO TUE.

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ovTime to Switch Gears

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ovLaunch Weather Balloons

Where Forecasting BeginsWhere Forecasting Begins

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ov

Balloon

Parachute

InstrumentPackage

Upper Air Sounding

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ovLaunched at 73 U.S. Cities

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ovRadiosonde

▪Launched at the same time across the world (11Z & 23Z)▪Rises 1000 feet per minute▪Reaches 90,000 ft in 90

minutes▪Balloon expands to 35 feet

before exploding

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ov850 MB Upper Level Plot

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http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/sounding.html

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ovRadiosonde Plotted Data

http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/sounding.html

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ovTemperature Inversion

• As you go aloft, temperature normally decreases at a rate of 5.5° F per 1000 feet

• Temperature inversion occurs when the temperature increases with height instead of decreasing.

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ovRadiosonde Text Data

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ovTemperature Inversion

Inversion

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ovWhat Can Smoke Tell Us

StabilityStability in the lower layers in the lower layers Presence of Presence of InversionInversion layers layers Direction Direction of winds aloftof winds aloft SpeedSpeed of winds aloft of winds aloft

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ovWhen Inversions Breaks

Winds may increase suddenlyWinds may increase suddenly

Temperatures increaseTemperatures increase

Relative humidity decreasesRelative humidity decreases

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ovBoundary Layer & Turbulence

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ovSurface Heat and Updrafts

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ovBoundary Layer Friction

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ovLocal Winds & Friction

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ovSea Breeze Front on Satellite

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ovVisible Satellite Loop

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ovSea Breeze

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ovSea Breeze

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ovDay - Sea Breeze

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ovLand Breeze

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ovNight – Land Breeze

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ovSea and Bay Breezes

10 AM10 AM

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ovSea and Bay Breezes

1 PM1 PM

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ovSea Breeze Fronts

Moist, stable, 80-85

MoistUnstableHotnear 90

Moist stable 80-85

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ovPosition of High Pressure andEffect on Sea Breeze

• Calm Flow• High Pressure Ridge to the North• High Pressure Ridge to the South

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ovWeak High Pressure Ridge

CalmFlow

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ovWeak High Pressure Ridge

7 AM7 AM

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ovWeak High Pressure Ridge

3 PM3 PM

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ovCalm Flow Lightning Activity

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ovHigh Pressure Axis to North

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ovHigh Pressure Axis to North

Low Level Flow

8 AM8 AM

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ovHigh Pressure Axis to North

Low Level Flow

11 AM11 AM

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ovHigh Pressure Axis to North

Low Level Flow

1 PM1 PM

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ovHigh Pressure Axis to North

Low Level Flow

4 PM4 PM

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ovLightning Activity

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ovHigh Pressure Axis to South

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ovHigh Pressure Axis to South

Low Level Flow

8 AM8 AM

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ovHigh Pressure Axis to South

Low Level Flow

11 AM11 AM

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ovHigh Pressure Axis to South

Low Level Flow

1 PM1 PM

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ovHigh Pressure Axis to South

Low Level Flow

4 PM4 PM

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ovLightning Activity

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ovThunderstorm Gust Front

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ovSea Breeze and Outflow Boundaries

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ovNWS Aviation Newsletter

The mission of The Front is to enhance aviation safety by increasing the pilot's knowledge of weather systems and processes, and NWS products and services.

http://aviationweather.gov

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ovPilot Reporting & Tracking

The SkySpotter® program is sponsored by the AOPA, FAA, and the National Weather Service Aviation Weather Center.

http://aviationweather.gov

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ovQuestions?

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