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Balkinization an unanticipatedconsequence of Jack M. Balkin

E­mail: Jack Balkin:jackbalkin atyahoo.com Bruce Ackermanbruce.ackerman atyale.edu Ian Ayresian.ayres at yale.edu Mary Dudziakmary.l.dudziak atemory.edu Joey Fishkinjoey.fishkin atgmail.com Heather Gerkenheather.gerken atyale.edu Mark Grabermgraber atlaw.umaryland.edu Stephen Griffinsgriffin at tulane.edu Bernard Harcourtharcourt atuchicago.edu Scott Hortonshorto atlaw.columbia.edu Andrew Koppelmanakoppelman atlaw.northwestern.eduMarty Ledermanmarty.lederman atcomcast.net Sanford Levinsonslevinson atlaw.utexas.edu David Lubandavid.luban atgmail.com Gerard Maglioccagmaglioc at iupui.eduJason Mazzonemazzonej atillinois.edu Linda McClainlmcclain at bu.edu John Mikhailmikhail atlaw.georgetown.edu Frank Pasqualepasquale.frank atgmail.com Nate Persilynpersily at gmail.comMichael StokesPaulsenmichaelstokespaulsenat gmail.com Deborah Pearlsteindpearlst atprinceton.edu Rick Pildesrick.pildes at nyu.eduAlice Ristrophalice.ristroph atshu.edu Brian Tamanahabtamanaha at

Saturday, July 27, 2013

Sort Term Versus Long Term Perspective

Brian Tamanaha

I fear my criticisms of Simkovic and McIntyre's million dollar law degreestudy, and their responses, have produced more heat than light. No doubt Ibear substantial responsibility for this because I have been in attack modethroughout. Perhaps I can bring this debate to a more useful level byindicating how my position can be reconciled with theirs.

We use different frameworks of analysis. My analysis in Failing Law Schoolswas avowedly short term (I said next 5 to 10 years) and focused on thefinancial risk of attending particular bands of law schools (especiallyexpensive law schools with poor employment results). Their analysis is longterm (looking at the return over an entire career) and covers the entire poolof law grads.

Their study has convinced me that I was wrong to exclusively focus on theshort term­­the long term return at the 25th percentile is better than I wouldhave guessed (assuming the validity of their numbers). For two reasons,however, I continue to believe my short term analysis is more appropriate.First, the legal employment market remains very poor (even as the generaleconomy has improved), and economists agree that people who enter jobmarkets during down times suffer lower lifetime earnings. No one knowswhen the turn­around will happen and how strong the recovery will be­­thepeople who entered law school in 2009 and 2010 betting that the job marketwould improve are now struggling. Second, as Simkovic and MacIntyreacknowledge, the risks differ by individual school. They suggest that IBRhelps mitigates this risk for those grads who cannot manage the debt, and Iagree; yet IBR cannot be considered entirely positive (20 years on a debtrelief program with a potentially large tax hit at the end). Bothconsiderations reduce the chance that students who enter particularly riskylaw schools today will achieve the lifetime earnings value found in theirstudy at the 25th percentile (I care only about the bottom, where the risk ofa negative return is greatest).

So perhaps our fundamental difference comes down to this question: Whenthinking about the risks and returns of attending law school today, is theshort term or the long term perspective more illuminating? Of course bothshould be kept in mind (ignoring the long term was my error), but which onecounts for more?

Posted 1:28 PM by Brian Tamanaha [link]

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Books by Balkinization Bloggers

Stephen M. Griffin, Long Warsand the Constitution (HarvardUniversity Press, 2013)

Andrew Koppelman, The ToughLuck Constitution and theAssault on Health Care Reform(Oxford University Press, 2013)

James E. Fleming and Linda C.McClain, Ordered Liberty:Rights, Responsibilities, andVirtues (Harvard UniversityPress, 2013)

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btamanaha atwulaw.wustl.edu Mark Tushnetmtushnet atlaw.harvard.edu Adam Winklerwinkler at ucla.edu

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Jason Mazzone, Copyfraud andOther Abuses of IntellectualProperty Law (StanfordUniversity Press, 2011)

Richard W. Garnett and AndrewKoppelman, First AmendmentStories, (Foundation Press2011)

Jack M. Balkin, ConstitutionalRedemption: Political Faith in anUnjust World (HarvardUniversity Press, 2011)

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Balkinization Symposium onThe Decline and Fall of theAmerican Republic

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Mark Tushnet, Why theConstitution Matters (YaleUniversity Press 2010)

Ian Ayres and Barry Nalebuff:Lifecycle Investing: A New,Safe, and Audacious Way toImprove the Performance ofYour Retirement Portfolio (BasicBooks, 2010)

Jack M. Balkin, The Laws ofChange: I Ching and thePhilosophy of Life (2d Edition,Sybil Creek Press 2009)

Brian Z. Tamanaha, Beyond theFormalist­Realist Divide: TheRole of Politics in Judging(Princeton University Press2009)

Andrew Koppelman and TobiasBarrington Wolff, A Right toDiscriminate?: How the Case ofBoy Scouts of America v.James Dale Warped the Law ofFree Association (YaleUniversity Press 2009)

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Jack M. Balkin, JamesGrimmelmann, Eddan Katz,Nimrod Kozlovski, ShlomitWagman and Tal Zarsky, eds.,Cybercrime: Digital Cops in aNetworked Environment (N.Y.U.Press 2007)

Jack M. Balkin and Beth SimoneNoveck, The State of Play: Law,Games, and Virtual Worlds(N.Y.U. Press 2006)

Andrew Koppelman, Same Sex,Different States: When Same­

Different States: When Same­Sex Marriages Cross StateLines (Yale University Press2006)

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Sanford Levinson, OurUndemocratic Constitution(Oxford University Press 2006)

Mark Graber, Dred Scott andthe Problem of ConstitutionalEvil (Cambridge UniversityPress 2006)

Jack M. Balkin, ed., What Roev. Wade Should Have Said(N.Y.U. Press 2005)

Sanford Levinson, ed., Torture:A Collection (Oxford UniversityPress 2004)

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