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101c2 Empirically-Derived Production Limits Introduction Baker SA 101c2 2015 Data Summary 12.15.15.Doc PUGET SOUND ENERGY 15 December 2015 Baker River Hydroelectric Project Page 1 1.0 Introduction SA 101(c)(2) Empirically-Derived Production Estimates PSE implemented a study approach in April 2013 for monitoring adult returns and the size and number of outmigrating smolts to provide feedback on basin sockeye production limits. PSE developed the study approach in collaboration with the ARG in response to Settlement Agreement Article 101(c)(2). Baker Basin sockeye smolt production limits can be monitored from an analysis of empirically derived data which will help establish fry production goals until a practical limit is achieved. The empirical approach is fundamental and minimizes the need for complex statistical analyses by relying on observation and comparing annual trends in data; adult and smolt data collection consists of sockeye number, frequency, smolt length, and smolt weight. The phased approach uses these numerical and morphological data to monitor density- dependent responses to increased fry production and provide feedback on basin sockeye production limits. This approach was developed for implementation of SA 101(c)(2) and utilizes available data collection and monitoring methods to look for indicators of density dependence and if feasible use the information to guide future hatchery fry releases. Over time, comparison of smolt data will disclose the trends and relationships for indication of density dependence in the form of reduced smolt size, condition, or other characteristics that ultimately influence survival to adult. This is a long term effort that will monitor system feedback during phases of fry production. Documentation will be included in the SA 101 annual report provided to the ARG and FERC as part of reporting requirements described in SA 102 Aquatics Reporting. The study approach (April 8, 2013) was approved by the ARG and implemented beginning with the 2013 outmigration season. ARTICLE 101(C)(2) EMPIRICALLY-DERIVED PRODUCTION LIMITS FOR SOCKEYE SALMON IN THE BAKER RIVER BASIN Aquatic Resources Group 2015 Data Collection Results December 2015

Baker SA 101c2 2015 Data Summary 12.15.15 · density dependence in the form of reduced smolt size, condition, or other characteristics that ultimately influence survival to adult

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101c2 Empirically-Derived Production Limits Introduction

Baker SA 101c2 2015 Data Summary 12.15.15.Doc PUGET SOUND ENERGY 15 December 2015 Baker River Hydroelectric Project Page 1

1.0 Introduction

SA 101(c)(2) Empirically-Derived Production Estimates PSE implemented a study approach in April 2013 for monitoring adult returns and the size and number of outmigrating smolts to provide feedback on basin sockeye production limits. PSE developed the study approach in collaboration with the ARG in response to Settlement Agreement Article 101(c)(2). Baker Basin sockeye smolt production limits can be monitored from an analysis of empirically derived data which will help establish fry production goals until a practical limit is achieved. The empirical approach is fundamental and minimizes the need for complex statistical analyses by relying on observation and comparing annual trends in data; adult and smolt data collection consists of sockeye number, frequency, smolt length, and smolt weight. The phased approach uses these numerical and morphological data to monitor density-dependent responses to increased fry production and provide feedback on basin sockeye production limits.

This approach was developed for implementation of SA 101(c)(2) and utilizes available data collection and monitoring methods to look for indicators of density dependence and if feasible use the information to guide future hatchery fry releases. Over time, comparison of smolt data will disclose the trends and relationships for indication of density dependence in the form of reduced smolt size, condition, or other characteristics that ultimately influence survival to adult. This is a long term effort that will monitor system feedback during phases of fry production. Documentation will be included in the SA 101 annual report provided to the ARG and FERC as part of reporting requirements described in SA 102 Aquatics Reporting. The study approach (April 8, 2013) was approved by the ARG and implemented beginning with the 2013 outmigration season.

ARTICLE 101(C)(2)

EMPIRICALLY-DERIVED PRODUCTION LIMITS FOR SOCKEYE SALMON IN THE BAKER RIVER BASIN

Aquatic Resources Group

2015 Data Collection Results

December 2015

101c2 Empirically-Derived Production Limits Empirical Data Monitoring and Analyses

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1.1 Schedule At the conclusion of each outmigration season a data summary will be presented to the ARG. Data collected, such as adult returns, fry production, smolt outmigrants, lengths, condition factors, and if collected- percent dry weights, will be reported annually according to the reporting schedule in SA 102. As monitoring continues, new data can be compared to baseline (2010-2012) data.

1.2 Annual Updates This report represents the 2015 data summary. The 2013 (first year), and 2014 data summary for SA 101(c)(2) was provided to the ARG and reported in corresponding SA 101 annual reports provided to the FERC according to the reporting schedule in SA 102.

2.0 Empirical Data Monitoring and Analyses

2.1 Numerical Empirical Data Monitoring the numerical response to increased fry production is included in this approach. Relationships between the number of fry produced, the number of smolts that outmigrate, and the number that return as adults are metrics that can be achieved by simply counting and comparing over time; limits to these relationships can be tested by increasing the number of fry until the number of smolts, and ultimately adult returns, is maximized. Morphological metrics such as length and condition are secondary, because decreases may be a viable tradeoff for increased production.

The upper limits to these relationships are unknown for the Baker system, and the approach for increasing sockeye fry capacity from production limits ultimately is linked to evaluating long-term trends in fry to smolt, and smolt to adult recruitment. The lower limits can be observed by recent record high outmigration and adult return numbers.

The Baker fish passage and fish production facilities provide an opportunity to enumerate all fry that are released, all outmigrating smolts, and a count of returning adults that when combined with harvest numbers, provide a means to evaluate production from fry to both the smolt and adult stage. The approach to monitoring these data includes annual accounting of the empirical data recorded in tables 1 - 4. Morphological Empirical Data

2.2 Morphological Empirical Data

Smolt Length and Weight Data The Upper Baker and Lower Baker FSC provide an opportunity to collect a sample of outmigrating juvenile sockeye salmon. The approach for monitoring morphological data is to use juvenile sockeye size and condition information available from the downstream passage sampling operation to track trends or changes from baseline years, and by monitoring these changes, gain insight into system production and limits to fry production. A ratio of smolt length and weight is calculated in a formula known as “Coefficient of Condition of Fish” (100,000Weight/Length3) or “K factor”. The relative robustness of a fish is expressed by K, and variations in a fish’s K factor may reflect both the quantity and quality of food consumed. Intercohort variability in average smolt

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length or K factor may be used as indicators to monitor for emerging density-dependent trends. As competitive processes limit food consumption, average length and condition will decrease as the population trends toward carrying capacity. Comparison of K factors provides an efficient and non-lethal method of monitoring trends in fish condition.

Seasonal size-distribution of outmigrants For the baseline years (2010-2012 sockeye outmigrations), three very distinct size classes were evident (figures 2, 3). Modes at approximately 160 mm and 240 mm suggested that most age-1 smolts were less than 160 mm and most age-2 smolts were between 160 and 240 mm. The percentage of smolts outmigrating at sizes greater than 240 mm was relatively low, but this largest size-class likely represented age-3 and older cohorts. Furthermore, these three size-classes segregated seasonally (figure 1).

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Figure 1. Baseline Years 2010-2012: Size distribution by month of sockeye salmon smolts outmigrating

from the Upper Baker Reservoir.

2010 Sockeye Outmigrants

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101c2 Empirically-Derived Production Limits Empirical Data Monitoring and Analyses

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Sockeye Outmigrants

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Figure 2. Size distribution of sockeye salmon smolts captured at the Upper Baker Floating Surface

Collector during outmigration, 2010-2012. (Vertical lines delineate size-class modes: <160 mm, 160-239 mm, and >240 mm.)

May Sockeye Outmigrants

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Figure 3. Size distribution of sockeye salmon smolts captured at the Upper Baker Floating Surface Collector during May, 2010-2012. (Vertical lines delineate size-class modes: <160 mm,

160-239 mm, and >240 mm.)

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2.3 Empirical Data Analysis Baker Basin sockeye production limits can be evaluated through empirical analysis of numerical and morphological data recorded at PSE fish passage and fish production facilities.

Juvenile Smolt Size Comparison

Beginning with the 2010 outmigration year, smolt data are monitored to determine trends and relationships in smolt size and condition as fry production is increased. Data collected during the 2010- 2012 outmigration seasons in Baker Lake are used to describe a baseline condition. Data collection, beginning in 2013, will be used to identify changes from the baseline condition. As new data are obtained, data trends can be evaluated to identify stock response and potential indicators of production limits. In addition to monitoring annual changes in smolt size, data collected during the month of May will be evaluated as a potential index of productivity. Observed differences in smolt size distribution data during the month of May during baseline years suggest that sockeye year classes were more clearly differentiated by length during this month. The peak of the outmigration and passage of approximately 80 to 90 percent of the run have also occurred during May.

Monitoring metrics for production limits

Recognizing that decreased length and condition may be a viable tradeoff for increased smolt production, these metrics will be used to evaluate density-dependent processes and help managers adjust fry production goals. As results are evaluated and available to the ARG, possible indications of density dependence will be discussed.

2.4 Sampling Protocols and Data Collection

Sampling Protocols

Although considerable variability in size at age has been estimated from historic scale sample collections, more recent trends in size-frequency data from 2010 to 2012 reveal distinct modes for sockeye less than 160 mm and less than 240 mm. To better reflect the current pattern of size-frequency distribution, and to increase the sample size during the month of May, the following sampling protocols were implemented for this study for sockeye salmon:

1. Stratified random samples of sockeye salmon include weekly samples of 40 sockeye <160 mm, 40 sockeye between 160 and 239 mm, and 40 sockeye >240 mm (when available).

2. Random samples collected during May are collected until 60 sockeye <160 mm are included weekly in the data. Random samples collected during other months should cease once 40 samples have been recorded, regardless of size.

3. Of the stratified random samples, each week from the third week in April through the last week in May, 25 sockeye <160 mm and 25 sockeye between 160 and 239 mm (no sockeye >240 mm) will be frozen individually and provided to WDFW for a possible lipid analysis. Possible lipid analysis will be the responsibility and conduct of the Fish Co-managers.

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Upstream, Downstream Trap Counts and Fry Production

Puget Sound Energy will continue to monitor fry production from returning broodstock and subsequent smolt production, relying upon observation and comparing counts derived from the Baker upstream and downstream and hatchery production. The empirical approach is fundamental and minimizes the need for complex statistical analyses; it consists primarily of developing trends from fish counts and production with data collection that consists of sockeye number, frequency, smolt length, and smolt weight. The approach also provides a means to recognize emerging trends within a historical context for the data.

2.5 Annual Update - Results of Data Monitoring and Analysis for 2015

Metrics

Annual morphological empirical data are monitored relative to baseline years (2010-2012) for the following:

1. Condition factor of sockeye smolts

These data are presented by date and separately for the month of May. Average condition factors are analyzed for three size groups: <160 mm, 160-239 mm, and >239 mm. Trends in average condition factor will be used to monitor for indication of system stress and potential limits to smolt production.

Results are shown as graphs in Figures 5, 8, 10, 13, 15, 17, 19, 21, and 23:

(5) 2010-2015 average condition factor “Age 1” of sockeye smolts outmigrating from Upper Baker Reservoir from 2nd week of May to 2nd week of June

(8) Condition factor distribution (2015) by month of sockeye smolts outmigrating from Upper Baker Reservoir

(10) 2013-2015 average condition factor “Age 1” of sockeye smolts outmigrating from Lower Baker Reservoir from 2nd week of May to 2nd week of June

(13) Condition factor distribution (2015) by month of sockeye smolts outmigrating from Lower Baker Reservoir

(15) Stratified <160 mm condition factor distribution (2015) of sockeye smolts outmigrating from Upper Baker Reservoir

(17) Stratified 160-239 mm condition factor distribution (2015) of sockeye smolts outmigrating from Upper Baker Reservoir

There were only 5 sockeye for the >239 mm strata, so this strata was not graphed

(19) Stratified <160 mm condition factor distribution (2015) of sockeye smolts outmigrating from Lower Baker Reservoir

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(21) Stratified 160-239 mm condition factor distribution (2015) of sockeye smolts outmigrating from Lower Baker Reservoir

(23) Stratified >239 mm condition factor distribution (2015) of sockeye smolts outmigrating from Lower Baker Reservoir.

2. Length of sockeye smolts

These data are presented by date and separately for the month of May. Average lengths are analyzed for three size groups: <160 mm, 160-239 mm, and >240 mm. Trends in average length will be used to monitor for indication of system stress and potential limits to smolt production.

Results are shown as graphs in Figures 4, 6, 7, 9, 11, 12, 14, 16, 18, 20, and 22:

(4) 2010-2015 average length “Age 1” of sockeye smolts outmigrating from Upper Baker Reservoir from 2nd week of May to 2nd week of June

(6) Size distribution (2015) of sockeye smolts outmigrating from Upper Baker Reservoir from 2nd week of May to 2nd week of June

(7) Size distribution (2015) by month of sockeye smolts outmigrating from Upper Baker Reservoir

(9) 2013-2015 average length “Age 1” of sockeye smolts outmigrating from Lower Baker Reservoir from 2nd week of May to 2nd week of June

(11) Size distribution (2015) of sockeye smolts outmigrating from Lower Baker Reservoir from 2nd week of May to 2nd week of June

(12) Size distribution (2015) by month of sockeye smolts outmigrating from Lower Baker Reservoir

(14) Stratified <160 mm size distribution (2015) of sockeye smolts outmigrating from Upper Baker Reservoir

(16) Stratified 160-239 mm size distribution (2015) of sockeye smolts outmigrating from Upper Baker Reservoir

There were only 5 sockeye for the >239 mm strata, so this strata was not graphed

(18) Stratified <160 mm size distribution (2015) of sockeye smolts outmigrating from Lower Baker Reservoir

(20) Stratified 160-239 mm size distribution (2015) of sockeye smolts outmigrating from Lower Baker Reservoir

(22) Stratified >239 mm size distribution (2015) of sockeye smolts outmigrating from Lower Baker Reservoir.

Annual numerical empirical data are monitored for the following:

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3. Fry releases and subsequent smolt production (Results shown in Table 3)

Percent of smolt outmigration are estimated from data in table 2 by the number of smolts counted at each downstream fish collection facility/number of fry released in each reservoir.

4. Smolt to adult recruits (Results shown in Table 4)

A general index of smolt to adult recruits are estimated from data in tables 1 and 2 by the number of adults (adult trap returns plus known and estimated pre-trap harvest)/number of smolts counted from the downstream fish collection facilities.

5. Returning broodstock (Results shown in Tables 1,2)

Number of female spawners used for Spawning beach 4 and artificial incubation in the hatchery, and the number of adults released for natural production are recorded.

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2.6 Numerical Empirical Data

Table 1. Baker River adult sockeye salmon counts for brood years 1999-2015 showing disposition of returning broodstock to the Upstream Fish Trap for transport

to the spawning beaches, artificial incubation (AI) ponds, and to Baker Lake for both natural productiona and recreational harvest.

Brood Year 

Return to Trap

Pre-trap Harvestd

Total Estimated Run Sizee

Total Sockeye at Trap

To Hatchery To Lake In-trap Harvestc

Spawning Beaches AI Ponds Baker Lake

Harvested Unharvested

1999 4,654 3,548 1,080 1,080 26 3 4,657

2000 10,404 4,019 5,183 5,183 1,202 444 10,848

2001 4,942 2,371 2,395 2,395 176 90 5,032

2002 4,023 3,459 553 0 0 11 16 4,039

2003 20,236 4,300 856 11,057 11,057 4,023 731 20,967

2004 9,113 4,306 1,300 2,764 2,764 743 2,216 11,329

2005 3,192 2,268 920 0 0 4 395 3,587

2006 8,325 4,100 1,302 2,326 2,326 597 1,548 9,873

2007 2,763 2,070 693 0 0 0 953 3,716

2008 3,211 2,295 804 112 112 0 2,507 5,718

2009 6,486 3,807 1,501 1,168 1,168 10 275 6,761

2010 18,809 0 3,827 10,414 2,933b 7,481 b 4,568 3,958 22,767

2011 27,195 1,607 3,850 16,308 8,341b 7,967 b 5,430 10,069 37,264

2012 28,410 3,407 2,752 17,511 9,855b 7,656 b 4,740 19,604 48,014

2013 12,534 2,235 3,846 6,041 pending pending 412 4,500 17,034

2014 14,176 2,196 4,101 7,207 pending pending 672 14,000 28,176

2015 32,735 2,200 4,101 24,032 pending pending 2,402 18,109 50,844 a The Skagit River System Cooperative has suggested that available habitat in Baker Lake limits natural production to approximately 2,000 natural spawners; fishery managers have considered additional spawners to be harvestable.

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b Preliminary estimates subject to change (Source: WDFW).

c In-trap count includes mortalities.

d Pre-trap harvest (recreational, commercial, tribal) provided by WDFW and tribal reporting. 

e Run size estimate consists of recreational, commercial, and tribal catch plus counts at the Baker River upstream fish trap.

Table 2. Female sockeye broodstock that spawned in the spawning beaches or were spawned in the artificial incubation (AI) program including the egg take for artificial incubation, fry produced from the spawning beaches and from artificial incubation, numbers of fry planted in Baker Lake and Lake Shannon, and the

number of sockeye smolt outmigrants for each brood year from 1999 through 2014.

Brood year

Spawning beach

spawned females

Counted fry out of spawning beach #4

Estimated fry from beach #3

AI spawned females

Egg take for AI

Fry produced from AI

Fry to Baker Lake

Fry to Lake

Shannon

Smolts from

Baker Lakea

Smolts from Lake

Shannona

1999 1,393 1,856,639 222,000 2,078,639 194,537 418

2000 1,770 3,281,896 323,000 3,604,896 140,021 9,460

2001 1,017 1,316,042 227,000 1,543,042 70,414 412

2002 1,677 1,537,065 323,000 228 693,305 663,950 2,259,540 264,475 166,698 4,122

2003 1,854 2,089,175 308,000 348 734,262 758,944 2,971,059 185,060 113,767 3,316

2004 1,662 1,638,138 239,000 438 1,212,800 1,188,524 2,801,902 263,760 284,494 4,810

2005 971 1,656,858 0 490 1,157,300 1,134,742 2,791,600 0 117,014 41,250

2006 1,807 1,990,183 0 475 1,246,190 1,224,356 2,914,539 300,000 252,416 588

2007 850 1,892,677 0 298 953,718 921,940 2,814,617 0 335,353 7,588

2008 1,161 1,326,437 0 330 993,454 965,506 2,291,943 0 435,297 1,290

2009 1,713 3,511,564 0 465 1,713,599 1,596,630 5,108,194 0 203,550 5,958

2010 0 0 0 1,637 5,199,858 5,089,860 4,139,680 950,180 452,625 17,307

2011 589 1,158,025 0 1,664 5,072,919 4,368,735 3,558,264 2,000,010 577,085 181,224

2012 1,415 2,100,202 0 1,298 3,375,845 3,262,645 3,836,878 1,349,520 564,432 375,447

2013 1,013 1,828,946 0 2,124 4,893,032 4,761,302 3,775,057 1,948,131 477,169 223,588

2014 887 1,677,815 0 1,896 5,098,985 4,790,997 3,207,363 2,544,600 a Counts include all sockeye outmigrants but do reflect smolt production by brood year because the majority of smolts outmigrate at age 1. For clarity:

for the 2012 brood year, 3,836,878 fry were released in Baker Lake in 2013, and 564,432 sockeye smolts outmigrated in 2014.

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Table 3. Fry releases and subsequent smolt production. Percent of smolt outmigration estimated from data in table 2 by number of smolts counted at each downstream fish collection facility/ number of fry released in each reservoir for each brood year from 1999 through 2014. This data analysis is limited by the fact

that the number of wild produced fry is unknown, and contribution to subsequent smolt production.

Brood year Fry Baker (table 2)

Smolts Bakera

(table 2) Percent

(smolt / fry) Fry Shannon

(table 2) Smolts Shannona

(table 2) Percent

(smolt / fry)

1999 2,078,639 194,537 9.4 418

2000 3,604,896 140,021 3.9 9,460

2001 1,543,042 70,414 4.6 412

2002 2,259,540 166,698 7.4 264,475 4,122 1.6

2003 2,971,059 113,767 3.8 185,060 3,316 1.8

2004 2,801,902 284,494 10.2 263,760 4,810 1.8

2005 2,791,600 117,014 4.2 0 41,250 -

2006 2,914,539 252,416 8.7 300,000 588 0.2

2007 2,814,617 335,353 11.9 0 7,588 -

2008 2,291,943 435,297 19.0 0 1,290 -

2009 5,108,194 203,550 4.0 0 5,958 -

2010 4,139,680 452,625 10.9 950,180 17,307 1.8

2011 3,558,264 577,085 16.2 2,000,010 181,224 9.1

2012 3,836,878 564,432 14.7 1,349,520 375,447 27.8

2013 3,775,057 477,169 12.6 1,948,131 223,588 11.5

2014 3,207,363 2,544,600

a Counts include all sockeye outmigrants but do reflect smolt production by brood year because the majority of smolts outmigrate at age 1. For clarity: for the 2012 brood year, 3,836,878 fry were released in Baker Lake in 2013, and 564,432 sockeye smolts

outmigrated in 2014.

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Table 4. Smolts counted and subsequent adult returns. Smolt survival to adult returns estimated from data in tables 1 and 2 by the number of adults (adult trap returns plus known and estimated pre-trap harvest)/ number of smolts counted from downstream fish collection facilities for each outmigration year from 1997

through 2015.

Outmigration Year

Smolts Counted (table 2)

Return Year

Subsequent Adult Runsize (table 1)

Smolt Survival to Adult No. Adults/No. Smolts

1997 120,376 1999 4,657 3.9

1998 92,499 2000 10,848 11.7

1999 193,234 2001 5,032 2.6

2000 28,325 2002 4,039 14.3

2001 194,955 2003 20,967 10.8

2002 149,481 2004 11,329 7.6

2003 70,826 2005 3,587 5.1

2004 170,820 2006 9,873 5.8

2005 117,083 2007 3,716 3.2

2006 289,304 2008 5,718 2.0

2007 158,264 2009 6,761 4.3

2008 253,004 2010 22,767 9.0

2009 342,941 2011 37,264 10.9

2010 436,587 2012 48,014 11.0

2011 209,508 2013 17,034 8.1

2012 469,932 2014 28,176 a 6.0

2013 758,309 2015 50,844a 6.7

2014 939,879 2016

2015 700,757 2017 a Includes pre-trap harvest (recreational, commercial, tribal) estimate, provided by WDFW and Tribes.  

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2.7 Morphological Empirical Data

90

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114  mm 109  mm 108  mm 106  mm 107  mm 111  mm

Figure 4. Average length “Age 1” of sockeye salmon smolts outmigrating from the Upper Baker Reservoir

from 2nd week of May to 2nd week of June.

0.80

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0.95 0.94 0.92 0.91 0.91 0.94

Figure 5. Average condition factor “Age 1” of sockeye salmon smolts outmigrating from the Upper Baker

Reservoir from 2nd week of May to 2nd week of June.

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507090

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Figure 6. Size distribution (2015) of sockeye salmon smolts outmigrating from the Upper Baker Reservoir

from 2nd week of May to 2nd week of June.

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Figure 7. Size distribution (2015) by month of sockeye salmon smolts outmigrating from the Upper Baker

Reservoir.

101c2 Empirically-Derived Production Limits Empirical Data Monitoring and Analyses

Baker SA 101c2 2015 Data Summary 12.15.15.Doc PUGET SOUND ENERGY 15 December 2015 Baker River Hydroelectric Project Page 16

0.4

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Random meaurements (N)

2015 Upper Baker FSC Sockeye Condition - Random Sample

March

April

May

June

July

Figure 8. Condition factor distribution (2015) by month of sockeye salmon smolts outmigrating from the

Upper Baker Reservoir.

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2013 2014 2015

Fo

rk le

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th (

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Average Length - "Age 1" (2 Wk May - 2 Wk June) - LOWER BAKER

122  mm 120  mm 133  mm

Figure 9. Average length “Age 1” of sockeye salmon smolts outmigrating from the Lower Baker

Reservoir from 2nd week of May to 2nd week of June.

101c2 Empirically-Derived Production Limits Empirical Data Monitoring and Analyses

Baker SA 101c2 2015 Data Summary 12.15.15.Doc PUGET SOUND ENERGY 15 December 2015 Baker River Hydroelectric Project Page 17

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)Average Condition factor - "Age 1" (2 Wk May - 2 Wk June) - LOWER BAKER

0.99 0.92 0.99

Figure 10. Average condition factor “Age 1” of sockeye salmon smolts outmigrating from the Lower

Baker Reservoir from 2nd week of May to 2nd week of June.

507090

110130150170190210230250

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Fo

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eng

th (

mm

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Random measurements

2015 Lower Baker FSC Sockeye Length- 2nd Week May - 1st Week June - Random Sample

Figure 11. Size distribution (2015) of sockeye salmon smolts outmigrating from the Lower Baker

Reservoir from 2nd week of May to 2nd week of June.

101c2 Empirically-Derived Production Limits Empirical Data Monitoring and Analyses

Baker SA 101c2 2015 Data Summary 12.15.15.Doc PUGET SOUND ENERGY 15 December 2015 Baker River Hydroelectric Project Page 18

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Random meaurements (N)

2015 Lower Baker FSC Sockeye Length - Random Sample

March

April

May

June

July

Figure 12. Size distribution (2015) by month of sockeye salmon smolts outmigrating from the Lower

Baker Reservoir.

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Random neasurements (N)

2015 Lower Baker FSC Sockeye Condition - Random Sample

March

April

May

June

July

Figure 13. Condition factor distribution (2015) by month of sockeye salmon smolts outmigrating from the

Lower Baker Reservoir.

101c2 Empirically-Derived Production Limits Empirical Data Monitoring and Analyses

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Stratified random measurements (N)

2015 Upper Baker FSC Sockeye Length - Stratified <160 mm

Figure 14. Stratified < 160 mm size distribution (2015) of sockeye salmon smolts outmigrating from the

Upper Baker Reservoir.

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Stratified random measurements (N)

2015 Upper Baker FSC Sockeye Condition - Stratified <160 mm

Figure 15. Stratified < 160mm condition factor distribution (2015) of sockeye salmon smolts outmigrating

from the Upper Baker Reservoir.

101c2 Empirically-Derived Production Limits Empirical Data Monitoring and Analyses

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Stratified random measurements (N)

2015 Upper Baker FSC Sockeye Length - Stratified 160-239 mm

Figure 16. Stratified 160 – 239 mm size distribution (2015) of sockeye salmon smolts outmigrating from

the Upper Baker Reservoir.

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Stratified random measurements (N)

2015 Upper Baker FSC Sockeye Condition - Stratified 160-239 mm

Figure 17. Stratified 160 – 239 mm condition factor distribution (2015) of sockeye salmon smolts

outmigrating from the Upper Baker Reservoir.

101c2 Empirically-Derived Production Limits Empirical Data Monitoring and Analyses

Baker SA 101c2 2015 Data Summary 12.15.15.Doc PUGET SOUND ENERGY 15 December 2015 Baker River Hydroelectric Project Page 21

60

80

100

120

140

160

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

Fo

rk le

ng

th (

N)

Stratified random measurements (N)

2015 Lower Baker FSC Sockeye Length - Stratified <160 mm

Figure 18. Stratified < 160 mm size distribution (2015) of sockeye salmon smolts outmigrating from the

Lower Baker Reservoir.

0.6

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nd

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acto

r (K

)

Stratified random measurements (N)

2015 Lower Baker FSC Sockeye Condition - Stratified <160 mm

Figure 19. Stratified < 160mm condition factor distribution (2015) of sockeye salmon smolts outmigrating

from the Lower Baker Reservoir.

101c2 Empirically-Derived Production Limits Empirical Data Monitoring and Analyses

Baker SA 101c2 2015 Data Summary 12.15.15.Doc PUGET SOUND ENERGY 15 December 2015 Baker River Hydroelectric Project Page 22

160

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0 100 200 300 400 500

Fo

rk le

ng

th (

mm

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Stratified random measurements (N)

2015 Lower Baker FSC Sockeye Length - Stratified 160-239 mm

Figure 20. Stratified 160 – 239 mm size distribution (2015) of sockeye salmon smolts outmigrating from

the Lower Baker Reservoir.

0.6

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nd

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Stratified random measurements (N)

2015 Lower Baker FSC Sockeye Condition - Stratified 160-239 mm

Figure 21. Stratified 160 – 239 mm condition factor distribution (2015) of sockeye salmon smolts

outmigrating from the Lower Baker Reservoir.

101c2 Empirically-Derived Production Limits Empirical Data Monitoring and Analyses

Baker SA 101c2 2015 Data Summary 12.15.15.Doc PUGET SOUND ENERGY 15 December 2015 Baker River Hydroelectric Project Page 23

240

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360

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Fo

rk le

ng

th (

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Stratified random measurements (N)

2015 Lower Baker FSC Sockeye Length - Stratified >239 mm

Figure 22. Stratified >239 mm size distribution (2015) of sockeye salmon smolts outmigrating from the

Lower Baker Reservoir.

0.6

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nd

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Stratified random measurements (N)

2015 Lower Baker FSC Sockeye Condition - Stratified >239 mm

Figure 23. Stratified >239 mm condition factor distribution (2015) of sockeye salmon smolts outmigrating

from the Lower Baker Reservoir.

101c2 Empirically-Derived Production Limits Empirical Data Monitoring and Analyses

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2.8 In Summary

2015 Numerical

Baker Lake’s Upper Baker FSC collected 477,169 sockeye smolts is the third highest on record (577,085 in 2013 represents the highest and the current observed floor to production capability).

Lake Shannon’s Lower Baker FSC collected 223,588 sockeye smolts and is the second highest on record (375,447 in 2014 represents the highest and the current observed floor to production capability).

The combined number of juvenile sockeye migrants captured and transported at PSE’s Upper Baker and Lower Baker downstream fish passage facilities in 2015 was 700,757 third highest on record (939,879 in 2014 represents the highest).

A total of 32,735 sockeye entered the upstream trap during the 2015. When adjusted for terminal harvest, the run total is the highest among the top tier of sockeye returns. Terminal harvest was estimated at 18,109 for a total terminal area return of 50,844.

Baker fish hatchery and Sockeye Spawning Beach 4 combined, produced 6.49 million fry, among the highest in 56 years of production from Baker facilities (6.59 in 2014 represents the highest). Sockeye fry production has increased more than two-fold from levels prior to 2008.

2015 Morphological

Baker Lake age 1 sockeye smolts average size increased (111 mm) from 2014 (107 mm). Average condition (0.94) also increased compared to 2014 (0.91).

Lake Shannon age 1 sockeye smolts average size is still very large (133 mm) and increased compared to 2014 (120 mm), also average condition increased to 0.99 compared to 2014 (0.92).

Figure 14. Collection of sockeye salmon smolts outmigrating from the Lower Baker Reservoir.