Back to the Future Part II - Department of Energy...By: Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc. March 26th, 2014 Back to the Future Part II On Behalf of Office of Acquisition and Project

By: Anirban BasuSage Policy Group, Inc.

March 26th, 2014

Back to the Future Part II

On Behalf of

Office of Acquisition and Project Management

Raging Bull (1980)

Historic and Projected World Output Growth 2004 through 2015*

Source: International Monetary Fund

*2014-2015 data are projections

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

5.1%4.7%

5.2% 5.3%

2.7%

-0.4%

5.2%

3.9%

3.1% 3.0%

3.7% 3.9%

Ann

ual %

Cha

nge

Real GDP Growth, 20 Fastest and Slowest Growing CountriesEstimated 2013, Annual Percent Change (for available nations)Rank Country Region % Rank Country Region %

1 South Sudan Africa 24.7 169 Belgium Europe 0.12 Sierra Leone Africa 13.3 170 Denmark Europe 0.13 Turkmenistan Central Asia 12.2 171 Samoa Asia 0.14 Paraguay South America 12.0 172 Swaziland Africa 0.05 Mongolia Asia 11.8 173 Czech Republic Europe -0.46 Lao P.D.R. Southeast Asia 8.3 174 Croatia Eastern Europe -0.67 Liberia Africa 8.1 175 Finland Europe -0.68 Timor-Leste Southeast Asia 8.1 176 Barbados Caribbean -0.89 Côte d'Ivoire Africa 8.0 177 Spain Europe -1.3

10 Ghana Africa 7.9 178 Netherlands Europe -1.311 China Asia 7.6 179 Equatorial Guinea Africa -1.512 Panama Central America 7.5 180 Islamic Republic of Iran Middle East -1.513 Rwanda Africa 7.5 181 Portugal Europe -1.814 Kyrgyz Republic Central Asia 7.4 182 Italy Europe -1.815 Uzbekistan Central Asia 7.0 183 Slovenia Eastern Europe -2.616 Cambodia Southeast Asia 7.0 184 San Marino Europe -3.517 Ethiopia Africa 7.0 185 Greece Europe -4.218 Mozambique Africa 7.0 186 Libya Middle East -5.119 Tanzania Africa 7.0 187 Cyprus Europe -8.720 Myanmar Southeast Asia 6.8 188 Central African Republic Africa -14.5

*2013-2014 data are projections


Estimated Growth in Output by Select Global Areas2013

1.2%2.3%2.6%

2.4%4.4%

7.7%6.5%

1.5%2.5%

5.1%5.3%

1.9%1.7%1.7%1.7%

-1.2%-1.8%

0.5%0.2%

-0.4%1.3%

-4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0%Mexico

BrazilLatin America and Caribbean

Mid. East, N.Africa, Afghanistan & PakistanIndia*China

Developing AsiaRussia

Central/eastern EuropeSub-Saharan Africa

Emerging/developing countriesUnited States

CanadaUnited Kingdom

JapanSpain

ItalyGermany

FranceEuro area

Advanced economies

Annual % ChangeSource: International Monetary Fund

*For India, data and forecasts are presented on a fiscal year basis and output growth is based on GDP at market prices. Corresponding growth forecasts for GDP at factor cost are 4.6 percent for 2013.

Estimated Growth in Output by Select Global Areas2014 Projected

3.0%2.3%

3.0%3.3%

5.4%7.5%

6.7%2.0%

2.8%6.1%

5.9%2.8%

2.2%2.4%

1.7%0.6%0.6%

1.6%0.9%1.0%

2.2%

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0%Mexico

BrazilLatin America and Caribbean

Mid. East, N.Africa, Afghanistan & PakistanIndia*China

Developing AsiaRussia

Central/eastern EuropeSub-Saharan Africa

Emerging/developing countriesUnited States

CanadaUnited Kingdom

JapanSpain

ItalyGermany

FranceEuro area

Advanced economies

Annual % ChangeSource: International Monetary Fund

*For India, data and forecasts are presented on a fiscal year basis and output growth is based on GDP at market prices. Corresponding growth forecasts for GDP at factor cost are 4.6 percent for 2013.

Debt by Selected Country2013 Estimates

0 50 100 150 200 250

Saudi ArabiaRussiaChina

IndonesiaSouth Africa

MexicoArgentina

IndiaBrazil

GermanyCanada

United KingdomFranceSpain

United StatesItalyJapan

General Government Gross Debt in Percent of GDP

*IMF Staff Estimates


Rank Exchange Index % Change

4 Tokyo SE Nikkei 225 56.7%2 Nasdaq NASDAQ Composite 38.3%1 NYSE Group DJI A 26.5%6 Frankfurt SE DAX 25.5%8 Bolsa De Madrid Madrid General 21.4%12 Swiss Exchange Swiss Market 20.2%5 Euronext CAC 40 18.0%10 BorsaItaliana FTSE MIB 16.6%3 London SE FTSE 100 12.0%9 TSX Group S&P TSX Composite 9.6%11 Hong Kong Exchanges Hang Seng Index 2.9%7 Shanghai SE Shanghai Composite -6.8%

Top 12 Stock Exchanges 2013 Growth*

Source: Yahoo! Finance

*Change from the 2012 close to the 2013 close.

S&P Select Sector Performance12‐Month Percent Change as of March 14, 2014

Source: Standard & Poor’s

‐10% 0% 10% 20% 30%

Telecommunication Services

Utilities

Energy

Consumer Staples

Materials

Information Technology

Financials

Industrials

Health Care

Consumer Discretionary

‐7.2%

7.1%

7.2%

8.8%

17.4%

20.6%

18.2%

21.0%

29.7%

24.4%

12‐month percent change

Federal Reserve Balance Sheet v. S&P 500 IndexMay 2008 – March 2014

Source: Federal Reserve Bank; Yahoo Finance

S&P 500 index depicted in orange

500

700

900

1100

1300

1500

1700

1900

2100

0.8

1.3

1.8

2.3

2.8

3.3

3.8

4.3

4.8

May‐08

Jul‐08

Sep‐08

Nov‐08

Jan‐09

Mar‐09

May‐09

Jul‐09

Sep‐09

Nov‐09

Jan‐10

Mar‐10

May‐10

Jul‐10

Sep‐10

Nov‐10

Jan‐11

Mar‐11

May‐11

Jul‐11

Sep‐11

Nov‐11

Jan‐12

Mar‐12

May‐12

Jul‐12

Sep‐12

Nov‐12

Jan‐13

Mar‐13

May‐13

Jul‐13

Sep‐13

Nov‐ 13

Jan‐14

Mar‐14

S&P 500FRB Credit Reserve$Trillions

Fourth Quarter Earnings for Select CorporationsEarnings per Share

Symbol Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Estimated

Q4 2013 Reported Surprise Symbol Q4 2012 Q4 2013

Estimated Q4 2013 Reported Surprise

CAT $1.46 $1.28 $1.58 $0.30 AMD ‐$0.14 $0.05 $0.06 $0.01DOW $0.33 $0.43 $0.65 $0.22 XRX $0.30 $0.29 $0.29 $0.00BTU $0.36 ‐$0.10 $0.00 $0.10 GE $0.44 $0.53 $0.53 $0.00STI $0.65 $0.69 $0.77 $0.08 CMG $1.95 $2.53 $2.53 $0.00YHOO $0.32 $0.38 $0.46 $0.08 COH $0.86 $0.98 $0.98 $0.00UTX $1.04 $1.53 $1.58 $0.05 MMM $1.41 $1.62 $1.62 $0.00DD $0.11 $0.55 $0.59 $0.04 UPS $1.32 $1.25 $1.25 $0.00FCX $0.78 $0.80 $0.84 $0.04 TXN $0.36 $0.46 $0.46 $0.00HON $1.10 $1.21 $1.24 $0.03 VFC $0.77 $0.84 $0.82 ‐$0.02VZ $0.45 $0.65 $0.66 $0.01 MSFT $0.67 $0.75 $0.66 ‐$0.09MCD $1.38 $1.39 $1.40 $0.01 COF $1.41 $1.55 $1.45 ‐$0.10

Source: Yahoo! Finance

Jobs ‐1.2%

Incomes 3.3%

Profits 44.7%

Housing ‐10.5%

Stocks 14.5%

‐60%

‐40%

‐20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Percen

t cha

nge sinc

e en

d of 200

7

Top Gun (1986)Profits out of the Danger Zone

Source: BEA, BLS, S&P Case-Shiller, Yahoo! Finance

Source: Moody’s Economy

Recession Watchas of December 2013

U.S. Natural Gas Gross Withdrawals6-Month Moving AverageNovember 2003 through November 2013

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

1,700,000

1,800,000

1,900,000

2,000,000

2,100,000

2,200,000

2,300,000

2,400,000

2,500,000

2,600,000Nov‐03

May‐04

Nov‐04

May‐05

Nov‐05

May‐06

Nov‐06

May‐07

Nov‐07

May‐08

Nov‐08

May‐09

Nov‐09

May‐10

Nov‐10

May‐11

Nov‐11

May‐12

Nov‐12

May‐13

Nov‐13Vo

lume in M

illion Cub

ic Fee

t

November 2013: 2,558,123 MMcf

U.S. Oil Production6-Month Moving AverageNovember 2003 through November 2013


100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

200,000

220,000

240,000Nov‐03

May‐04

Nov‐04

May‐05

Nov‐05

May‐06

Nov‐06

May‐07

Nov‐07

May‐08

Nov‐08

May‐09

Nov‐09

May‐10

Nov‐10

May‐11

Nov‐11

May‐12

Nov‐12

May‐13

Nov‐13

Thou

sand Barrels

November 2013: 233,051K Barrels

U.S. Electricity Production by Source2003 v. 2013 as of December

Coal50.8%Petroleum

Liquids & Coke3.1%

Natural Gas

16.7%

Nuclear19.7%

Hydro-electric*

6.9%

Renewable sources,

other than hydro-electric2.0%

Other0.8%

2003


*Net of hydroelectric pumped storage.

Coal39.1%Petroleum

Liquids & Coke0.7%

Natural Gas

27.4%

Nuclear19.4%

Hydro-electric*

6.5%Renewable

sources, other than

hydro-electric

6.2%

Other0.6%

2013

Carbon Footprint* Comparison Across Fuel Source

Source: U.S. Energy Information Agency (2013) ‘Carbon Dioxide Emissions Coefficients’

* Carbon footprint is defined as amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.

** Btu = British Thermal Unit

0 50 100 150 200 250

Flared natural gas

Jet Fuel

Petroleum coke

Natural gas

Gasoline

Residual heating fuel

Coal

120.6

156.3

225.1

117

157.2

173.7

210.2

Pounds CO2 emitted for each million Btu

Industrial & Transportation Fuels

Residential & Non‐industrial Businesses

Trends in Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Emissions1990 ‐ 2012

1990(billion tons of CO2)



% growth 1990‐2012

U.S. 4.99 5.87 5.19 4%EU 27 4.32 4.06 3.74 ‐13%Australia 0.27 0.36 0.43 59%Canada 0.45 0.55 0.56 24%China 2.51 3.56 9.86 293%Japan 1.16 1.28 1.32 14%Asian Tigers* 0.71 1.31 1.91 169%India 0.66 1.06 1.97 198%Brazil 0.22 0.35 0.46 109%

Source: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, “Trends in global CO2 emissions: 2013 Report” (p.16)

* ‘Asian Tigers’ include Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, South Korea, and Taiwan

Industrial ProductionJanuary 2001 through February 2014

Source: Federal Reserve

The industrial production index measures the real output of the manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities industries.

80

85

90

95

100

105

Jan‐01

May‐01

Sep‐01

Jan‐02

May‐02

Sep‐02

Jan‐03

May‐03

Sep‐03

Jan‐04

May‐04

Sep‐04

Jan‐05

May‐05

Sep‐05

Jan‐06

May‐06

Sep‐06

Jan‐07

May‐07

Sep‐07

Jan‐08

May‐08

Sep‐08

Jan‐09

May‐09

Sep‐09

Jan‐10

May‐10

Sep‐10

Jan‐11

May‐11

Sep‐11

Jan‐12

May‐12

Sep‐12

Jan‐13

May‐13

Sep‐13

Jan‐14

Inde

x (200

7 = 100)

(Base year: 2007)

Gross Domestic Product1990Q1 through 2013Q4*

‐10%

‐8%

‐6%

‐4%

‐2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

Percen

t Cha

nge from

Prece

ding Pe

riod (S

AAR)

2013Q4: 2.4%

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

*Second Estimate

Contributions to GDP Growth by Component Q4 2012 – Q4 2013

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

‐2.0

‐1.5

‐1.0

‐0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

PersonalConsumption

GovernmentSpending

Net Exports Gross Investment

1.1

‐1.3

0.7

‐0.4

1.5

‐0.8

‐0.3

0.7

1.2

‐0.1 ‐0.1

1.41.4

0.1 0.1

2.6

1.73

‐1.05

0.990.72

SAAR (%

)

Q4‐12 Q1‐13 Q2‐13 Q3‐13 Q4‐13

Ordinary People (1980)

‐1000

‐800

‐600

‐400

‐200

0

200

400

600Jan‐02

Jun‐02

Nov‐02

Apr‐03

Sep‐03

Feb‐04

Jul‐04

Dec‐04

May‐05

Oct‐05

Mar‐06

Aug‐06

Jan‐07

Jun‐07

Nov‐07

Apr‐08

Sep‐08

Feb‐09

Jul‐09

Dec‐09

May‐10

Oct‐10

Mar‐11

Aug‐11

Jan‐12

Jun‐12

Nov‐12

Apr‐13

Sep‐13

Feb‐14

Thou

sand

s

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

February 2014: +175K

Net Change in U.S. Jobs, BLSJanuary 2002 through February 2014

National Nonfarm Employmentby Industry SectorFebruary 2013 v. February 2014

-42

-32

30

33

61

61

152

337

404

486

668

-200 0 200 400 600 800

Information

Government

Mining and Logging

Other Services

Financial Activities

Manufacturing

Construction

Education and Health Services

Leisure and Hospitality

Trade, Transportation, and Utilities

Professional and Business Services

Thousands, SA

All told 2,158 K Jobs gained


U.S. Year‐over‐year Percent Change: 1.7%

Employment Growth, U.S. States (SA) January 2013 v. January 2014 Percent Change

RANK STATE % RANK STATE % RANK STATE %1 NEVADA 3.4 17 NORTH CAROLINA 1.7 34 IDAHO 0.9

2 NORTH DAKOTA 3.3 19 INDIANA 1.5 34 LOUISIANA 0.9

3 TEXAS 2.9 19 MASSACHUSETTS 1.5 34 MICHIGAN 0.9

4 COLORADO 2.7 19 MISSOURI 1.5 34 MISSISSIPPI 0.9

5 FLORIDA 2.6 19 MONTANA 1.5 39 DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA 0.5

5 OREGON 2.6 23 KANSAS 1.4 39 PENNSYLVANIA 0.5

7 UTAH 2.4 23 TENNESSEE 1.4 39 SOUTH DAKOTA 0.5

8 ARIZONA 2.2 25 IOWA 1.3 42 ILLINOIS 0.4

9 CALIFORNIA 2.1 25 NEW YORK 1.3 42 NEW HAMPSHIRE 0.4

9 HAWAII 2.1 25 OHIO 1.3 44 MARYLAND 0.3

11 MINNESOTA 2.0 25 RHODE ISLAND 1.3 45 CONNECTICUT 0.2

11 SOUTH CAROLINA 2.0 29 VERMONT 1.2 46 ALASKA 0.1

11 WISCONSIN 2.0 29 WYOMING 1.2 46 NEW JERSEY 0.1

14 GEORGIA 1.9 31 ARKANSAS 1.1 48 VIRGINIA 0.0

15 OKLAHOMA 1.8 31 MAINE 1.1 49 WEST VIRGINIA -0.2

15 WASHINGTON 1.8 31 NEBRASKA 1.1 50 KENTUCKY -0.3

17 DELAWARE 1.7 34 ALABAMA 0.9 50 NEW MEXICO -0.3


U.S. Unemployment Rate: 6.6%

Unemployment Rates, U.S. States (SA) January 2014RANK STATE % RANK STATE % RANK STATE %

1 NORTH DAKOTA 2.6 18 MARYLAND 5.8 34 NEW YORK 6.82 NEBRASKA 3.5 19 WEST VIRGINIA 5.9 36 OHIO 6.93 SOUTH DAKOTA 3.6 20 MISSOURI 6.0 37 OREGON 7.04 UTAH 3.9 21 ALABAMA 6.1 38 NEW JERSEY 7.15 VERMONT 4.0 21 COLORADO 6.1 39 CONNECTICUT 7.26 IOWA 4.3 21 DELAWARE 6.1 39 TENNESSEE 7.26 WYOMING 4.3 21 FLORIDA 6.1 41 ARKANSAS 7.38 HAWAII 4.6 21 WISCONSIN 6.1 41 GEORGIA 7.39 MINNESOTA 4.7 26 MAINE 6.2 43 DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA 7.4

10 KANSAS 4.8 27 ALASKA 6.4 44 ARIZONA 7.511 LOUISIANA 4.9 27 INDIANA 6.4 44 MISSISSIPPI 7.511 NEW HAMPSHIRE 4.9 27 PENNSYLVANIA 6.4 46 KENTUCKY 7.713 VIRGINIA 5 27 SOUTH CAROLINA 6.4 47 MICHIGAN 7.814 OKLAHOMA 5.2 27 WASHINGTON 6.4 48 CALIFORNIA 8.115 MONTANA 5.3 32 NEW MEXICO 6.6 49 ILLINOIS 8.716 IDAHO 5.4 33 NORTH CAROLINA 6.7 49 NEVADA 8.717 TEXAS 5.7 34 MASSACHUSETTS 6.8 51 RHODE ISLAND 9.2


Unemployment Rates, 20 Largest Metros (NSA)December 2013

Rank MSA UR Rank MSA UR

1Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI Metropolitan Statistical Area 4.3 11

Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.2

2Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV Metropolitan Statistical Area 4.6 12

San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.4

3Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.4 12

Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.4

3Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.4 14

St. Louis, MO-IL Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.6

5Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.5 14

New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.6

6San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.6 16

Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.8

7Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH Metropolitan NECTA 5.9 17

Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 7.9

7Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.9 18

Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI Metropolitan Statistical Area 8.0

7 Baltimore-Towson, MD Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.9 19Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, IL-IN-WI Metropolitan Statistical Area 8.3

10Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.0 20

Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 8.9


Field of Dreams (1989)

15‐Year & 30‐Year Fixed Mortgage Rates February 1995 through March 2014

Source: Freddie Mac

3.38%

4.37%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

Feb‐95

Aug‐95

Feb‐96

Aug‐96

Feb‐97

Aug‐97

Feb‐98

Aug‐98

Feb‐99

Aug‐99

Feb‐00

Aug‐00

Feb‐01

Aug‐01

Feb‐02

Aug‐02

Feb‐03

Aug‐03

Feb‐04

Aug‐04

Feb‐05

Aug‐05

Feb‐06

Aug‐06

Feb‐07

Aug‐07

Feb‐08

Aug‐08

Feb‐09

Aug‐09

Feb‐10

Aug‐10

Feb‐11

Aug‐11

Feb‐12

Aug‐12

Feb‐13

Aug‐13

Feb‐14

Rate

15‐yr 30‐yr

U.S. New Home SalesJanuary 1999 through January 2014

Source: Economy.com, Census Bureau

January 2014468K

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

Thou

sand

s, SAAR

U.S. Housing Building PermitsFebruary 1999 through February 2014

Source: Census Bureau

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500Fe

b‐99

Jun‐99

Oct‐99

Feb‐00

Jun‐00

Oct‐00

Feb‐01

Jun‐01

Oct‐01

Feb‐02

Jun‐02

Oct‐02

Feb‐03

Jun‐03

Oct‐03

Feb‐04

Jun‐04

Oct‐04

Feb‐05

Jun‐05

Oct‐05

Feb‐06

Jun‐06

Oct‐06

Feb‐07

Jun‐07

Oct‐07

Feb‐08

Jun‐08

Oct‐08

Feb‐09

Jun‐09

Oct‐09

Feb‐10

Jun‐10

Oct‐10

Feb‐11

Jun‐11

Oct‐11

Feb‐12

Jun‐12

Oct‐12

Feb‐13

Jun‐13

Oct‐13

Feb‐14

Thou

sand

s, SAAR

1 Unit 5 units or more

February 2014:1 Unit: 588K5 Units or more: 407K

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

6.3%8.1% 9.0% 9.7% 10.2% 11.3%

13.4%

16.5% 16.6%18.1%

20.3%22.6%

25.5%

12‐M

onth % Cha

nge

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for Select Metros December 2013, 12-Month Percentage Change

Source: Standard & Poor’s

Source: The American Institute of Architects

Architecture Billings IndexJanuary 2008 through February 2014

30

35

40

45

50

55

Jan‐08

Jun‐08

Nov‐08

Apr‐09

Sep‐09

Feb‐10

Jul‐10

Dec‐10

May‐11

Oct‐11

Mar‐12

Aug‐12

Jan‐13

Jun‐13

Nov‐13

February 2014: 50.7

Nonresidential Construction Put‐in‐PlaceDecember 2006 through January 2014

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800Dec‐06

Mar‐07

Jun‐07

Sep‐07

Dec‐07

Mar‐08

Jun‐08

Sep‐08

Dec‐08

Mar‐09

Jun‐09

Sep‐09

Dec‐09

Mar‐10

Jun‐10

Sep‐10

Dec‐10

Mar‐11

Jun‐11

Sep‐11

Dec‐11

Mar‐12

Jun‐12

Sep‐12

Dec‐12

Mar‐13

Jun‐13

Sep‐13

Dec‐13

SAAR ($

billions

)

Public

Private

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Dec. 08: $697.4 billionJan. 14: $578.7 billion

‐17.0%

National Nonresidential Construction Spending by SubsectorJanuary 2013 v. January 2014

‐12.1‐7.9‐4.6‐4.5‐4.0‐2.0‐0.2

2.02.2

7.17.8

11.012.4

15.240.4

44.8

‐35 ‐15 5 25 45

ReligiousWater supply

Conservation and developmentHealth care

Amusement and recreationEducationalPublic safety

PowerSewage and waste disposal

ManufacturingTransportation

OfficeCommercial

Highway and streetCommunication

Lodging

12‐month % ChangeSource: U.S. Census Bureau

Inputs to Construction PPIJanuary 2001 – February 2014

‐10%

‐5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

Jan‐01

May‐01

Sep‐01

Jan‐02

May‐02

Sep‐02

Jan‐03

May‐03

Sep‐03

Jan‐04

May‐04

Sep‐04

Jan‐05

May‐05

Sep‐05

Jan‐06

May‐06

Sep‐06

Jan‐07

May‐07

Sep‐07

Jan‐08

May‐08

Sep‐08

Jan‐09

May‐09

Sep‐09

Jan‐10

May‐10

Sep‐10

Jan‐11

May‐11

Sep‐11

Jan‐12

May‐12

Sep‐12

Jan‐13

May‐13

Sep‐13

Jan‐14

12‐m

onth Perce

nt Cha

nge


Construction Materials PPI12-month % Change as of February 2014


‐15% ‐5% 5% 15%

Nonferrous metals

Plywood

Asphalt felts and coatings

Fabricated structural metal products

Glass

Softwood lumber

Clay construction products ex. refractories

Concrete products

Iron and steel

Prefabricated wood structural members

Gypsum products

‐7.1%

‐2.8%

‐1.3%

0.4%

0.8%

1.2%

2.1%

3.7%

4.3%

4.7%

11.6%

The Shining (1980)

Conference Board Leading Economic Indicators IndexAugust 2007 through February 2014

Source: Conference Board

‐1.5%

‐1.0%

‐0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%Aug‐07

Nov‐07

Feb‐08

May‐08

Aug‐08

Nov‐08

Feb‐09

May‐09

Aug‐09

Nov‐09

Feb‐10

May‐10

Aug‐10

Nov‐10

Feb‐11

May‐11

Aug‐11

Nov‐11

Feb‐12

May‐12

Aug‐12

Nov‐12

Feb‐13

May‐13

Aug‐13

Nov‐13

Feb‐14

One‐m

onth Perce

nt C

hang

e

February 2014 = 99.8 where 2004=100

Coming to America (1988)• Economy gained momentum

over the course of last year;

• Tailwinds included booming stock market, lower gasoline prices, stabilizing global economy, and consumer expenditures on interest rate sensitive durable goods like housing and autos;

• The current year is associated with greater certainty regarding federal budgeting and monetary policy – that helps;

• The world is not perfect ‐ black swan threats remain: (1) Iran (2) Israel/Iran (3) Europe (4) contagion (5) cyber (6) EMP;

• Healthcare reform could slow full‐time hiring over the course of the year; and

• Regions with rapid population growth and/or significant import/export activity, industrial output and energy production will lead the way.

Thank You Follow us on Twitter @SagePolicyGroup You can always reach me at [email protected]

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Back to the Future Part II - Department of Energy...By: Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc. March 26th, 2014 Back to the Future Part II On Behalf of Office of Acquisition and Project