RONSHANDLER

TheBABSPROJECT3.0

BOOK3

BABSinPractice

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LastUpdate:January1,2020Copyright2020,TheShandlerCompany,LLCAll rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, resold, distributed, transmitted or displayed for any commercial purpose, including incorporating into a website without the prior permission of the publisher, except for brief excerpts used in reviews. You may not create derivative works based upon the product. This product is intended for entertainment purposes only. Neither the author nor publisher assume any liability beyond the purchase price for any reason. The Shandler Company, LLC Port St. Lucie, FL baseball@ronshandler.com

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BOOK3-CONTENTSBOOK1 WhyWeNeedANewSystem

BOOK2 TheBroadAssessmentBalanceSheet

Chapter10 MoreSnakeDraftingInsights 3

Chapter11 BABSinAuctions 8

Chapter12 BABSinDeepLeagues 14

Chapter13 BABSinKeeperLeagues 16

Chapter14 BABSinLeagueswithAlternativeRules 20

Chapter15 BABSIn-Season 24

Chapter16 WhatmakesBABStick? 27

Chapter17 Wheredowegofromhere? 29

BABSVariablesCheatSheet 32

AbouttheAuthor 33

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TheBABSProjectChapter10

MoreSnakeDraftingInsightsInChapter9,welookedattheprocessofusingBABSinsnakedrafts.Butplayingoffthemarketplaceisaninexactscience.NomatterwhattheADPssay,orthetendenciesofyourleague,allittakesisoneimpulsiveownertomakeacovetedplayerdisappearofftheboard.Besides,asdiscussedearlier,theADPsarewronganyway.Theironlyvalueistogiveyouaroughideawhereplayersmightgetdrafted.ThepowerofBABSisasaguideforgoodspotstograbplayers.Nobodywantsto"reach"furtherthanisnecessarybutBABScanhelpminimizethedamage.Herearethreeexamplesfrom2016thatshowhowBABSwouldhavehelpedmaximizeyouroddsofsuccess.1.AvoidingaFirstRoundBustHereiswhattheaveragedraftpositionrankinglookedlikeforthefirstroundcomingintothe2016season:ADP Player Assets Liabilities1 MikeTrout P+,s,AV2 PaulGoldschmidt P+,AV3 BryceHarper P+,AV inj-4 ClaytonKershaw E+,K+5 JoshDonaldson P+,AV6 CarlosCorrea p,AV EX,Rg7 NolanArenado P+,AV8 MannyMachado p,AV inj- 9 GiancarloStanton P+,AV inj-10 AnthonyRizzo PW,AV 11 KrisBryant P+,s e12 JoseAltuve SB,AV Rg13 AndrewMcCutchen P+,AV 14 MaxScherzer ER,K 15 MiguelCabrera PW,AV inj-Notehowthevariousskillsets–ourBABSAssetGroups–aredispersedallovertheplacewithinthese15players.Someplayersarelegitimatelyworthyoffirst-roundconsideration;somenotsomuch.Wecanbetterseethosepocketsofskillifwere-rankthelistbyAssetGroups:

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ADP Player Assets Liabilities1 MikeTrout P+,s,AV 4 ClaytonKershaw E+,K+ 2 PaulGoldschmidt P+,AV3 BryceHarper P+,AV inj-5 JoshDonaldson P+,AV7 NolanArenado P+,AV9 GiancarloStanton P+,AV inj-13 AndrewMcCutchen P+,AV 14 MaxScherzer ER,K+ 10 AnthonyRizzo PW,AV 15 MiguelCabrera PW,AV inj- 11 KrisBryant P+,s e 12 JoseAltuve SB,AV Rg 6 CarlosCorrea p,AV EX,Rg8 MannyMachado p,AV inj- These15playerswereonlyafractionofthetotalpopulationintheAssetGroupsrepresentedhere.Infact,therearemanygoodplayersdraftedafterthisgroupthatwouldhavebeenbetterconsiderationsforthetop15. Retrospectisawonderfulthing.No,no–I'mstilltalkingaboutpre-seasonratings.Thereweremanyplayerswithsimilarskillswhoweregettingdraftedseveralroundslater.Theexpectationsofthemarketplacearewhatplacedtheseparticularplayersinthefirstround.Inordertoidentifytheplayerswhowerethebestbetstoreturnfirstroundearnings,Iapproachedtheabovelistintwostages:first,screeningouttheplayerswithmajorLiabilitiesandthenfocusingontheremainingbestAssetprofiles.Ihighlyrecommendbeingrisk-aversewhenitcomestofirst-rounders,soIimmediatelypassedonHarper,Stanton,Cabrera,Bryant,CorreaandMachado.Thatwouldhavefilteredoutsomeof2016'sbiggestdisappointments,eventhoughIwouldhavealsomissedoutonafewgoodperformances.There'salwaysthatrisk.TheremainingplayerswouldhavebeenconsideredinorderofbesttoworstAssetprofiles.Myfirstrounddraftlistwouldthenhavebeen:

1.Trout2.Kershaw3.Goldschmidt4.Donaldson5.Arenado6.McCutchen7.Scherzer8.Rizzo9.Altuve

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TheonlyrealmissherewasMcCutchen.Tofillouttherestofmyfirstroundlist(assumingthosenineplayersgotdraftedbeforemypick),Icouldpulluplow-risk2nd-roundADPs,likeEdwinEncarnacionorStarlingMarte.ButbyfilteringoutthebiggerLiabilitiesupfront,BABSincreasedmyoddsofavoidingafirstroundbust.2.LeveragingtheMarketplacewithaDeepAssetGroupNoticethatthereweresixhittersinthatfirstroundwithidentical(P+,AV)assets,goingNos.2,3,5,7,9and13.Theoretically,theyshouldhavebeenselectedtogether,separatedonlybytheweightoftheirLiabilities.Goldschmidt,Donaldson,ArenadoandMcCutchenshouldhavebeendraftedtogether;HarperandStantonprobablyshouldhavebeendraftedsomedistancebehindbecauseoftheinjuryrisk.Inactuality,therewerenotjustsixplayersinthatAssetGroup–therewerenine–andtheywerescatteredoveramuchwiderrangeoftheADPs.Takealook:ADP Player Assets Liabilities2 PaulGoldschmidt P+,AV3 BryceHarper P+,AV inj-5 JoshDonaldson P+,AV7 NolanArenado P+,AV9 GiancarloStanton P+,AV inj-13 AndrewMcCutchen P+,AV 21 EdwinEncarnacion P+,AV36 JoeyVotto P+,AV Rg111 DavidOrtiz P+,AV AgAlltheseplayerscameinto2016withtheidentical(P+,AV)skillsprofile.ThosewithearlierADPsgotdraftedsomewhereinthefirstroundbutthelastthreeplayersonthislistprovidedcomparableskills.Youdidn'tloseanythingbydraftingEncarnacioninthesecondround.ThebigprofitopportunitieswereVottoandOrtiz–alsothesameskillsprofile–thoughbothcarriedsomeminorLiabilities.Vottowasaregressionrisk;Ortizwasanagerisk.Eitherplayercouldfallvictimtothatrisk–ornot–butitmadeatonofdifferencewhetheryoutookonanyriskatADPNo.3(Harper)orNo.111(Ortiz).WithaplayerlikeOrtiz,grabbinghimanywherebetweenpicksNo.90andNo.100wouldnothavebeentoomuchofareach.YoustillcouldhaveearnedtonsofprofitascomparedtothesimilarlyskilledplayersatNo.36andearlier.Hereishowtheyfaredin2016:ADP Player Liab HR SB Avg2 PaulGoldschmidt 24 32 .2973 BryceHarper inj- 24 21 .2435 JoshDonaldson 37 7 .2847 NolanArenado 41 2 .294

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9 GiancarloStanton inj- 27 0 .24013 AndrewMcCutchen 24 6 .25621 EdwinEncarnacion 42 2 .26336 JoeyVotto Rg 29 8 .326111 DavidOrtiz Ag 38 0 .315Allthingsconsidered,BABSmayhaveunderratedthespeedpotentialforGoldschmidtandHarper,buttheonlyplayerthatshecompletelywhiffedonwasMcCutchen.3.HowtoBreakUpaRunAfterahalfdozenelitestartingpitchersweregone,therewastypicallyarunofsecondtierstartersthatdominatedthe4thround.Thefollowingeightpitchersallhad4throundADPs.Itwasacommonrefrainbydrafters,"AslongasIgetoneoftheseguysbytheendofthe4throundI'llbefine.Doesn'tmatterwhichone."Well…ADP Player Assets Liabilities31 ZackGreinke ER,k Rg,Nw32 GerritCole ER,k inj-34 DavidPrice ER,k Nw38 JacobdeGrom ER,KK 40 CoreyKluber ER,KK41 StephenStrasburg ER,KK inj-44 DallasKeuchel ER,k Rg45 NoahSyndergaard ER,KK e…itdidmatter,atleastin2016.Althoughalleightpitchersweresomewhatinthesameskillsballpark,thosewithslightlylesser-skills(ER,k)weregettingdraftedearlierthanthosewithabetterskillsprofile(ER,KK).Allfourpitcherswithsignificantstrikeoutdominancehadgreatyears.Theirnumberswerepositiveassetstoyourteam,evenifsomeofthemspentpartoftheyearontheIL.FiveofthesixpitcherswithsomeLiabilityfaredworsethanexpected,evenifjustfewerinnings.Andallfourpitcherswithlesserskills(ER,k)weredisappointments.ADP Player Assets Liab IP ERA K/931 ZackGreinke ER,k Rg,Nw 159 4.37 7.632 GerritCole ER,k inj- 116 3.88 7.634 DavidPrice ER,k Nw 230 3.99 8.938 JacobdeGrom ER,KK 148 3.04 8.740 CoreyKluber ER,KK 215 3.14 9.541 StephenStrasburg ER,KK inj- 148 3.60 11.244 DallasKeuchel ER,k Rg 168 4.55 7.745 NoahSyndergaard ER,KK e 184 2.60 10.7

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Ifyoudeterminedyourtargetbasedonbetterskillsandlowerrisk,youhadmuchbetteroddsofrosteringapitcherwhohelpedyourteamin2016.UsingtheTargetfunctionTheExcelspreadsheetthatisdownloadablefromBABSbaseball.comcontainsafunctionthatallowsyoutoeasilyidentifycandidatesforyourupcomingpicks.The"Target"cellallowsyoutoenteranADPnumberfurtherdownthedraftboardandthespreadsheetidentifiesthoseplayerswhoshouldbeconsidered.Youneverwanttomissoutongoodtalentsbecauseyouaren'twillingtolookafewroundsahead.Remember–whenitcomestoassessingfuturevalue,theADPsarewrong.

Intheearlystagesofthedraft,enterthenumberofyourupcomingpicktoseewhichplayerswillmostlikelybegonebythetimeyourpickcomestoyou.Youcanalsoenterthenumberofyourpickaroundaheadtoseewhichplayersyouneedtograbinordertoavoidlosingoutonthem.Forinstance,ifyouhavethefirstpickina15-teamdraft,afteryouchooseMikeTrout,enter30inthetargetfield(that’syournextpick),andalltheplayerslikelytobegonebyyournextpickwillbeflagged.Ifanyarestillavailableonceyourpickarrives,theywouldbelogicaltargets.Youcanenter60toseewhichplayersyouneedtoconsiderdraftingat30and31inordertoavoidmissingoutonthem.

Whatevertargetnumberyouselect,theresulting“X”sthatappearconstitutetheplayerrankingyoushouldbedraftingfrom.Un-“X”edplayerswillcontinuetobubbleup

tothetop;theyarethebetter-skilledplayerswhoyoucanwaitonuntiltheybegintoapproachtheirmarketvalue.Asyouupdateyourtargetrange,thoseplayerswilleventuallyget“X”edandthatiswhenyoucanstartconsideringthem.Asyougetfurtherintoyourdraft,youwillneedtoexpandyourtargetrange.Youmightconsiderenteringapicknumberthat’s2-3roundsaheadinordertocovertherealrangeinwhichplayersmightbeselected.Byround14orso,theADPsarealmostmeaninglessandhavesuchawiderangeoferrorthatyouwillneedtoenteravalueperhaps5-6roundsahead.

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TheBABSProject Chapter11

BABSinAuctionsI’vebeenplayinginauctionleaguessince1985.Ispentprettymuchallofthattimeworriedaboutoptimalbudgeting,gettingthebestvaluesandnotoverpayingforplayers.I’veagonizedoverwhethertogoanextrabuck,howlongtostayinbiddingwarsandmakingsureIspentallmy$260. You'reatrueauctionpro.Yeah,butBABSsaysI'mspendingtoomuchenergyonmeaninglessthings.AndIworrytoomuch.WhenitcomestousingBABSinanauctionleague,everythingstartswiththisparagraphfromChapter1:“Thereisonlya65%chancethataplayerprojectedforacertaindollarvaluewillfinishtheseasonwithinplus-or-minus$5ofthatprojection.Thatmeans,ifyouprojectaplayerwillearn$25andyouagonizewhenbiddinghits$27,thereisonlyabouta2-in-3shotofhimfinishingsomewherebetween$20and$30.”Sowereallyshouldnotbeobsessingoverindividualdollarsandjustridingthemarketplacetopaywhatwehavetofortheplayersthatbestfitourrosterconstructionplan.ThebeautyofBABSisthatshecanidentifyunderpricedcommoditiessothatyoucanbuildtonsofpotentialprofitintoyourroster.Unlikesnakedraftswhereyouareatthemercyoftheotherowners,theadvantageofauctionsisthatyoucannominateandbidonwhoeveryouwant.Youdon'tnecessarilyhavetositbackonhigherskilledplayerswhobubbleupduringthecourseofthedraft.ThatmakesBABSevenmorepowerful.Let'sgobacktothedraftsheetfromChapter9andlookatthisexcerpt:

8 $37 Arenado,Nolan 5 COL F PW AV -

19 $29 Goldschmidt,Paul 3 STL F PW AV * - Nw

21 $28 Freeman,Freddie 3 ATL F PW AV * -

70 $16 Dahl,David o79 COL F PW AV - INJ EX

91 $14 Castellanos,Nick o9 DET F PW AV -

Inasnakedraft,you'llbewatchingasthetopnamesfindtheirwayontorostersintheearlygoing.Butinanauction,youcangorighttonominatingNickCastellanosandpocketingthepotentialprofitrightaway.

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Butlet'stakeastepbackandlookattheprocessfromthebeginning.IliketousetheTotalControlDraftingmindsetI'vewrittenaboutintheBaseballForecaster.Twosimplesteps:1.Createyouroptimaldraftpool.2.Getthoseplayers.I’mnotbeingflip.Ifwereallyknewthatwewereoverpayingforanyoneplayer,atanytime,thenmyadvicewouldbedifferent.Butwedon’tknow.Thebestwecandoistojustgettheplayerswe'veidentifiedasthebestfits.

Yeah,I'mnotsureIlikethisloosey-gooseyapproach.Hearmeout.Theprocessstartsinprettymuchthesameplaceyoualwaysstartwhenpreparingforyourauction–settingabudget.Youstillneedtoallotacertainnumberofdraftdollarsforeachslot,buttheBABSlistcanbehelpfulindecidingwhichpositionsyoumighttrytotargetforyouranchorplayers.Wecansafelyassumethatthemosttalentedplayersaregoingtobehigheruponthechart,soanyofthoseearlyAssetGroupscouldbegoodtargetsforyourrosteranchors.Thenyouscaledownfromthere.ForToutWarsMixedin2019,IscannedthechartandIdecidedthatI'dtargetfouranchorpositions:1B,2B,anoutfielderandastartingpitcher.ThesepositionswereinAssetGroupsthathadseveralcomparabletargets,sothatifIwasoutbidforoneplayer,therewerestillothersIcouldtarget.Moreonthatinthesecondpointbelow.Thiswasmyresultingauctionbudget.Stars&Scrubsisaprudentapproachinamixedleaguewithadeepfreeagentpool.

CA $8 SP $30CA 1 SP 151B 35 SP 153B 15 SP 3CI 2 SP 32B 25 SP 1SS 15 MI 2 RP 15OF 35 RP 8OF 14 RP 1OF 10OF 3OF 3UT 1

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Forthenextfewexamples,let'scontinueusingthe2019chartbackinChapter9.Hereisthe(ER,KK)AssetGroupfordemonstrationpurposes:ADP R$ PITCHER Pos Tm PT Er K Sv Pk Rg

Sk Inj Ex Nw Pk Ag Rg

22 $28 Verlander,Justin SP HOU F ER KK - Ag

25 $26 Kluber,Corey SP CLE F ER KK -

26 $26 Cole,Gerrit SP HOU F ER KK -

30 $24 Snell,Blake SP TAM F ER KK - Rg

33 $24 Bauer,Trevor SP CLE F ER KK - inj- Rg

37 $22 Carrasco,Carlos SP CLE F ER KK -

39 $22 Buehler,Walker SP LA M ER KK - inj- e

40 $22 Syndergaard,Noah SP NYM M ER KK - INJ

47 $20 Severino,Luis SP NYY M ER KK - INJ

50 $19 Corbin,Patrick SP WAS F ER KK - Nw

56 $18 Paxton,James SP NYY M ER KK - INJ Nw Pk

61 $18 Strasburg,Stephen SP WAS M ER KK - INJ

324 $1 Peacock,Brad SP HOU P ER KK -

Fromhere,howyoudesignyourteamcomesdowntothreeconsiderations.1.Themarketpricesoftheplayers.IsthemarketplacetoohighontheplayersinanAssetGroup?Isthereopportunityforprofit?Therewere13pitchersinthe(ER,KK)groupabove,sevenfull-timers,fivemid-timersandonepart-timer,butallofcomparableskill.Theyrangedinmarketpricefrom$28downto$1.Ifyouplannedthatyouranchorstarterwouldcomefromthisskillsgroup,younowknowthatyoudidn'tnecessarilyhavetospend$28togethim.Youcouldhavebudgetedforalower-pricedarmandstillfeelconfidentthatyou'dberosteringcomparableskills.However,ifyouwantedthat$30anchortocomefromthisgroup,Verlander,Kluber,ColeorSnellwereallpossibilities.Youalsomighthavebeenabletolandoneofthearmsyou'vebudgetedfor$15–therewerelotsofopportunitieshere.2.ThedepthofeachAssetGroup.ThedeepertheAssetGroup,themorechancesyouhavetogettheplayersyouneed.Yes,youcouldplantopurchaseChrisSale–whowastheonly(E+,K+)startingpitcher–butifsomecrazedRedSoxfanbidhimupto$50,youweregoingtohavetorestructureyourplanprettyquickly.Targetgroupsthathavemanyplayerssoyouhavemoreshotsatdraftingthetypesofplayersthatfityourrostergoals.This(ER,KK)groupwas13playersdeepandperfectforthat.

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3.YourassessmentoftheAssetsandLiabilitiesoftheplayerswithineachtier.DotheAssetGroupsprovidetheskillsthatyouneed?Ifyoutargetedaspecificgroup,howmuchriskwouldyouhavetoincur?Let'ssayyoudecidedtousethisgrouptofilloneorbothofyour$15slots.Notethatsomeofthepitchersatthatmarketlevelhadinjuryrisk.Youcouldhavechosentotargettheseplayersanyway,buildingthoseLiabilitiesintoyourriskbudget,oryoucouldhaveshiftedyourfocustoothergroupswherefewerplayershadnotableLiabilities.UsingtheTargetfunction

Similartoitsuseinthesnakedraft,theExcelspreadsheetthatisdownloadablefromBABSbaseball.comcontainsaneatlittlefunctionthatallowsyoutoeasilyidentifycandidatesforyourupcomingpicks.The"Target"cellallowsyoutoenteradollarvaluetarget,andthespreadsheetidentifiesthoseplayerswhoshouldbeconsidered.Youneverwanttomissoutongoodtalentsbecausetheirexpectedvalueduringacertainstageoftheauctionisnotonyourradar.Remember–whenitcomestoaccuratelyassessingfuturevalue,theAAVsarewrong.Usethetargetfieldtokeeptrackofavailableplayersateachdollarvaluerange.Forinstance,ifyouenter$20,thespreadsheetwillflagtheremainingplayerswhowilllikelybepurchasedfor$20ormore.TheBABSrankingstellyouwhicharethebestbuysatthatpricepoint.Intheendgame,

enter$1,andthespreadsheetwillflagalltheremainingplayerswhowilllikelyhavepositive market value (though not necessarily positive real value). Intheend,it’syourchoicehowyoudecidetodesignyourteam.Youarethearchitect.

Itallsoundsgoodintheory,butI'mnotsureIwantthatmuchfreedom.WhatifI'malousyarchitect?

Whatdoyoumean?

Okay,forinstance…HowdoIknowwhentostopbiddingonaplayer?AtwhatpointinthebiddingdoIconcludethatthepriceistoohigh,dropoutandgoforanotherguy?ShouldIpay$30?$35?$40?Withoutaprojection,howdoIknowwhatthepriceshouldbeandwhetherI’mactuallymakingasoundbid?

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Theshortanswer–andtheoneIsuspectyoudon’twanttohear–isthatwedon’teverknowwhenabidissound.Youhavethelistedmarketpriceasaguidebutthat’sjustanindustryaverage;itmaynotreflectthebiddingtendenciesinyourownleague.Rememberthatourbidshaveonlya65percentchanceofbeingwithin+/-$5ofaplayer'struevalueanyway.Sothere'snoruleofthumbastowhentokeepbiddingordropoutbecauseit’stheotherowners'bidsthatultimatelydeterminehowhighyou’llneedtogotopurchaseaplayer.Theonlyblatantsignthatyouneedtodropiswhenyoudetectthatyou'veenteredintoabiddingwarwithanotherownerwhohappenstocovetthatplayer.Iftheleagueaveragepriceforaplayeris$20andthatownerispushingthebiddingto$30,thenit'sprettyobvious.ButthenicethingaboutBABSisthatsheshowsyouwhoyouroptionsareifaplayergetsbidhigherthanwhatyouarecomfortablepaying.Let'ssayyouthinkWalkerBuehler(ER,KK)wouldbeagoodfitbutsomeDodgersfaninyourgroupbidshimupto$30.Lookatalltheotheroptionsyouhavethatprovideacomparableskillset!

Anyothertacticaladvice?ThereareafewtacticalconsiderationsIuse.TheyarenotnecessarilyBABS-specific,justsoundapproachesingeneral.Ahelpfulin-drafttacticistofindbenchmarkpriceswithinyourgroupofowners.WheneverthefirstplayerinanAssetGroupgetsbought,makenoteofhispurchaseprice.Playersaroundhimshouldgoatapproximatelythesamelevel.Giventheabove,tossingthefirstplayerwithinanAssetgroupisalwaysgoingtobeasoundnominatingstrategy.Tossthefirst(PW,AV)hitterorthefirst(ER,KK)pitcher,preferablytheonewiththehighestexpectedprice.Thatshouldgiveyousomegoodinsightintoapproximatebiddingbenchmarks.Forexample,ifyounominatedJustinVerlanderearlyandhewentfor$32,thatwouldtellyouthatsomeoftheotherplayersinthatAssetGroupmightalsobeoverpriced.Inthatcase,youcouldopttogoafteracomparableplayeratthelowerendofthegroup(likePatrickCorbin).Evenifyouhavetopayafewdollarsoverhismarketvalue,you'dstillbesavingmoneyratherthanpotentiallyoverpayingforaCoreyKluberorGerritCole,allplayerswithcomparableskills.IalsothinkthatpurchasingthesecondplayernominatedfromanAssetgroup–particularlyadeepgroup–couldprovidesomeprofit.Onceownersseethebenchmarkprice,theymightbelessinclinedtodriveupthepriceofthesecondplayerinthegroupknowingthattherearestillothersavailabletobidonlater.Thisworksevenbetteringroupswithscarceskills,likespeedandsaves.

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Finally,alwaysadjustyourexpectationsforplayerswithLiabilities.It'seasytoforgettodothatbutthepotentialdamagecouldbedevastating.

Whatabouttheend-game?Therewon'tbeanybiddingwarsandyou'reprettymuchonyourownwhenitcomesto$1players.

Atthepointofsingle-digitdollarplayers,theonlythingIamlookingforarethosewiththebestskill/riskprofiletofillthosespots.IthardlymatterswhatIpayforthembecauseoddsarethepurchasepricewon’tbeanywhereclosetowhattheywillearn.Soifyougetintoabiddingwarwithanotherownerovera$7player,justdropout.It’snotworththestressandoddsarethereareseveralothersimilarlyunpredictableplayerswhoyoucangrab.ThebeautyofBABSinanauctionisthatyouarenotlockedintoanydollarexpectation.Youneednotobsessaboutoverbidding.Youjusthavetokeeptellingyourself,“Iwon’thavetooverpayforanyonebecausenobodyknowswhatthehecktheseplayersaregoingtoearnanyway.”Justaslongasyoutargettheplayerswiththebestskill/riskprofilesandbidwithinreason,you’llbefine. Whatyou'redescribingisdrafttableanarchy.NotsureIlikethat.Asmuchasyoumightthinkotherwise,youhavenootherchoice.Ourpreviousmethodsofauctiondraftbudgetingmadeusthinkwehadmorecontrol,butweneverreallydid.Onceaplayerisnominatedandyou'reinonhebidding,keepsayingtoyourself,"It'salljustfunnymoney…it'salljustfunnymoney…"

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TheBABSProjectChapter12

BABSinDeepLeaguesBABSisgreat,butshe’snotperfect.Sheworksbestwithplayerswhogeneratestatisticallysignificantperformancesamples.BABSlikesplayingtime.Assuch,sheworkslikeacharminmoststandardmixedleagueformats.

Butoncewestartdippingintothosebatterslikelytoseejustafewhundredplateappearances,orrarely-usedpitchers,herimpactstartsgettingabitdiluted.Theerrorbarsaroundthoseplayers’projectionsareprettywideanyway,andBABSonlyservestomaketherangeofpossibleoutcomesevenwider.

Wedon’tallplayin12or15-teammixedleaguessothereisaneedtofigureouthowBABScanstillhelp.ForAL/NL-onlyleagues,dynastyleaguesor50-rounddraft-and-holdleagues,BABSbecomesmoreabouttacticalassessmentratherthanactualperformanceprojection.

Thatapproachmakessense.Smallsamplesizesarepronetowidevolatilityinperformancesoit’snotlikewecanreallyprojectwhatthoseplayersaregoingtodoanyway.Thebestwecandoistogetageneralsenseofwherethoseplayersfall,andrelyalittlemoreontheriskassessmentelementofBABS.

HereareninetipsforusingBABSinleaguesthatdraftverydeepintotheplayerpool:

1.Intheearlytomiddlepartsofthedraft,focusontheaboveaveragepartofthepoolasyounormallywould.That’swhatBABSevaluatesbestanyway;theassetratingsfocusexclusivelyonaboveaverageskill.Exhaustasmanyfull-timeplayersaspossiblebeforeevenconsideringmid-timersandpart-timers.Prettyobvious.2.Thenstartconsideringgood-skilledmid-timersoverpoorerskilledfront-liners,becauseplayingtimeisfluidandtheinjuredlistisgoingtomoveplayersbackandforthbetweenthoseplayingtimecategoriesanyway.3.AvoidplayerswithSkillsLiabilityatalltimes.Bettertotakeaplayerwithnoassetsthanthoseliabilities.Ihavebeenabletocomeoutofeven50-rounddraftshavingrosteredonlyoneortwoplayerswiththatliability,andithasusuallybeenatacticaladd.IfIowna(A+)player,Imightbeokayrosteringa(A-)guy.Butthatwouldn'tbeapartofadeliberateplan,onlyasafallback.

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4.ContinuetoavoidallplayerswithSkillsLiability,eveniftheyareprojectedforsignificantplayingtime.Alltheywillpotentiallydoisdragdownyourteam'sratios,orpushyoubehindinthecountingstats,whichinturncanaffecttheirplayingtimedowntheline.A20-HR,.210hitterismorelikelytobebenchedthana10-HR,.270hitter.5.Becauseofplayingtimechurn,youcanjudiciouslystartdippingintothepart-timerswithbigskillsupside,especiallythoseonteamswithriskyfront-liners.Rememberthat“nopathtoplayingtime”isaphrasethathasnomeaningthesedays.6.Embracesomeinjuryriskhere,especiallyforplayerswhooncehadpromisebuthavefallenintheADPsduetohealthissues.Takemorechanceswithminor(inj-)overmajor(INJ)risks.However,ifyourrosterisalreadyladenwithhealthrisk,filteringoutalltheremaining(INJ)and(inj-)playerswillhelpyoumanagetheplayerpooleasier.Part-timersandNo-Timerswith(INJ)riskcanbeignoredcompletely.7.Elevateprospects.UsetheirregularBABSratingsbutsupplementwiththeirminorleagueBABSAssetratings,whichareavailableonBABSbaseball.com.Ialwayskeeptheminorleaguelistshandy.IftheminorleagueBABSratingsarenotroster-worthy,thoseplayersshouldbeignored.Afterall,iftheydidn'tshowsolidskillintheminors,whataretheoddsthatthey'lldowellintheMajors?8.ExaminetheplayersinNo-TimerLandandprospectforthosewhoBABSgivessomesemblanceofdraftableskill.Iftheonlythingstandingintheirwayisplayingtime,theycouldbeusefulspeculations.InMarch2019,BABSgavehighskillsmarkstoplayerslikeMaxFried(e,KK),BoBichette(p,s,AV)andRowdyTellez(p,a).AllwereNo-Timersprojectedtoopentheseasonwithoutafirmrole.Nonewouldhavebeenconsidereddraftableinastandardmixedleague,butbyseason'send,injuriesandcircumstancecreatedopportunitiesforallofthem.9.Usethemarketvaluesasroughguidesduringtheearlypartofyourdrafts,butbythemiddlerounds(round14orso,andlater)orsingledollardays,youshouldabandonthemcompletely.Bythatpartofthedraft,mostownersarefocusedonfillingtheirownindividualrosterholes,sotheADPs/AAVsbecomeprettymeaningless.Justgrabwhoyouneed,oranyplayerwiththepossibilityofprovidingsomethingpositivetoyourteam.

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TheBABSProjectChapter13

BABSinKeeperLeaguesWhenthinkingaboutBABSinkeeperleagues,itishelpfultostartbydefiningwhatmakesaplayerprotectablefromoneseasontoanother.Itreallycomesdowntoonebroadstatement:Anyplayerthatyouwouldnotbeabletogetbackinthedraftathiscurrentprice,orless,ispotentiallyprotectable.Theseplayersgenerallyfallintothreecategories:Lowcostprofit-holders:Theseareplayerswhoseperformanceandearningslastyearexceededwhatyoupaidforthematthedraft.A$5playerwhoearned$15isapotentiallyprotectablecommodity.Your10throundpickwhoiscurrentlygoinginthefirstfourroundsislikelyprotectable.Thatend-gameflyeryoutookwhoturnedinaCyYoung-caliberperformance,eventhoughhisskillsmetricswerepedestrian,hastobeaconsideration(thoughhemightbeabettertradechip).Atparcornerstoneplayers:Asmuchasitisnicetostockyourkeeperlistwith$5playerswhoearned$15lastyear,youalsoneedhighlevelfoundationguys.Playersearninginthe$30s,andinsomecasesinthe$40s,areallpotentiallyprotectable.Why?Withdraftinflation,thoseplayerswilllikelycostfarmoreonDraftDay.Sinceownerswillbeprotectingplayersatreducedprices,therewillbefarmoredollarsavailableinthedraftthantherewillbevaluableplayers.Soallplayerswillpotentiallycostmore.Yes,protectinga$40playerseemslikealot,buteven20percentdraftinflationcouldputthatpricetagcloserto$50atthedraft.Prospects:Theseareplayersofuncertainvaluethatyoumightbeabletoredraft,butmostownersprefertohangontothemaslongasthereisnocosttodoso.Minorleaguers,collegeplayers,evenforeignstarsallrepresentspeculationonupside.BasicsBABShandlesthefirsttwocategorieswithinitscurrentstructure.Comparewhatyourkeepercostistowhereyourplayerfallsinthespreadsheet.TheBABSAssetGroupsandmarketplacevalueswillgiveyouenoughinformationtomakeaninformeddecisionaboutwhetherthatplayerisprotectable.

So,let'ssayIownaplayerfor$24.Hismarketpriceis$22.Itosshimback,right?

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Notsofast.GiventhevolatilityofRotisseriedollars,aplayerwitha$22marketpricecouldconceivablyearnanywherefrom$17-$27.Andyes,it’spossibleyoucouldpurchasehimatthedraftforafewdollarslessthanyour$24keepercost.Howeverthatmarketpriceisnotadjustedforinflation.SoifthatplayerismadeavailableonDraftDay,hecouldgofor$26(20percentinflation),$29(30percentinflation),ormore.Suddenly,your$24decisionlookseasiertomake.Notethatthesearedecisionsshouldn’tbemadeinavacuum.ManyofyourkeeperdecisionsshouldbebasedonwhatyouanticipatethetalentpooltolooklikeonDraftDay.Forthat,youneedtoknow–oratleasthaveageneralsenseof–whatplayerstheotherownersarekeeping.Ifyou’reonthefenceaboutprotectingacatcherwhomightbeoverpricedat$23,it’shelpfultoknowthattheleague'stopfivecatchersarealllikelygoingtobekeptbyotherowners.BABSdoesfinewiththesetypesofdecisions.TheplacewhereweneedtotakeadeeperlookiswithprospectsandyoungerplayerswhohaveExperiencerisk.TheRisksofYouthBABSratesprospectsandyoung,inexperiencedplayersintwoways.Mostobviously,theyaregivenanExperienceriskratingof“EX”(lessthanoneyearofexperience)or“e”(approximatelyonebutlessthantwoyearsofexperience).Buttheseplayersarealsoratedbasedonhowmuchexpectedplayingtimetheystandtoget.Alllevelsofexperiencecouldbeinlineforfull-time,mid-time,part-timeorno-timeplateappearancesorinnings.SoyoumayfindpocketsofpotentialupsidetalentjustaboutanywhereintheBABSspreadsheet.TheimportantthingaboutaplayerwithExperiencerisk–either“e”orespecially“EX”–isheisnotyetafullyformedentity.HisBABSskillsratingshavethepotentialtoimproveoncehegetsmoreplayingtimeunderhisbelt.Conceivably,hisassetscouldcontinuetodevelop.Wedon’tknowforsure,buta“p”couldbecomea“PW”andperhapsevena“P+”overtime.Hiscurrentratingsprovideonlyaclueaboutwhattypeofplayerhemightturnouttobe.Unfortunately,theflipsideistruetoo.AnyinexperiencedplayerwithelevatedskillsratingshasthepotentialtoregressoncehegetsmoreexposedtoMajorLeagueopposition.Twohighrisk“EX”playersnearthetopofBABSratingsin2016wereCoreySeagerandMichaelConforto(bothPW,AV).Youcouldhaveevaluatedthemascomparabletoanestablished(PW,AV)veteranlikeAnthonyRizzo,butonlySeagerprovedworthy.Thatdidn'tmeanthatConfortowouldneverreachthatlevel,onlythathis"EX"ratinghighlightedtheriskin2016.Confortodideventuallydevelopintoa(P+)hitter.Itisunlikelythatayoungplayerwilldevelopskillsthatheisnotcurrentlyexhibitingatall.Inotherwords,a(p,a)playerisunlikelytobecomea(S+)player.Thosespeedskillswouldhavealreadybeensomewhatevident.Itispossiblethata

18

playerwithbelowaverageskills(whichwouldnotregisterinhisBABSrating)mightimprovetoslightlyaboveaveragebutyoudon'twanttobestockingyourkeeperslotswithplayerswhocurrentlyhavebelowaverageskills.So,theBABSAssetsratingsforeachplayerwithExperienceriskcanbeconsideredasonlyastartingpoint.Onceaplayerreachestheplayingtimethresholds,youhavetoconsiderthathisskillsareatleast75percentbaked.Therecouldstillbegrowth,butby1000PAsand300IP,wehaveagoodsenseofwhoheis.TargetsBABSprovidesuswithtargetsforAssetsandLiabilities.Theadjustmentsyouhavetomakeinkeeperleaguesdependonwhereyouareinthecontend/rebuildcycle.Ifyouareplayingtowininthecurrentseason,thereshouldbenoadjustments.IfyouneedtoopenupthelimitsforExperiencerisk,dosocarefully.Justbecauseyoubelieveyouarereadytocontend,owningtoomanyplayerswithExperienceLiabilitiesstillmeansyouhavetoomuchrisk.Iseethisalot.Anownerstockpilesyoungplayers,someofwhommighthaveshownalittlesomethingthepreviousseason,andbelievestheyformasolidgrowthcore.Butifyouwentinto2017withafoundationofJoshBell,LucasGiolito,YuliGurriel,AustinMeadows,YoanMoncada,AdalbertoMondesiandMallexSmith–allplayerswith(EXP)perienceLiabilitythatyear–congratulations,youdidagreatscoutingjob.Butitturnsoutyouweremuchbetterpositionedtocontendin2019.Ifyouarerebuildingnowandplayingfornextseason,youcanstartopeningupthetargets.Themostimportantpointisthatyourdecisionshavetobebasedontheknowledgethatthecurrentseasonisprettymuchirrelevant(unlessyourleaguehaspenaltiesforlowfinishes).YourAssetgoalsdon’tmatter.IwouldtargetsomeplayerswithInjuryriskastheyofferprofitopportunity.AndfeelfreetostockpileplayerswithExperienceriskandgoodskills.Ifyouareplayingfortwoyearsdowntheroad,throwcautiontothewind.Targets?Targets?Wedon’tneednostinkin’targets.Essentially,thefurtheryouarefromcontending,themoreflexibilityyouhavewiththetargets.So,ifyouarelookingatarebuildingseason,youwanttostockuponyoung,highskilledplayerswithminimalconcernfortheExperienceliability.Ifyouareexpectingtocontend,youshouldstillbeasclosetothestandardbenchmarksaspossible.Perhapsthis:

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NUMBEROFPLAYERS Mixed Mixed AL/NLExperienceLiability 12-tm 15-tm 12-teamContendingTeamBATTERS 3 4 2PITCHERS 2 2 1RebuildingTeamBATTERS 6 7 4PITCHERS 4 4 3Theunderlyingthoughtprocessforrebuildersisthat,evenifyouroster10playerswithExperiencerisk,onlysomeofthemaregoingtopanoutandbeprotectableforsubsequentseasons.Soitisbesttostockpilehigh-endtalentandhopeforthebest.

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TheBABSProjectChapter14

BABSinLeagueswithAlternativeRulesBABSprovidesadifferentwayofthinkingaboutrostermanagementinfantasyleagues,butit’svirtuallyimpossibleforonesystemtobeallthingstoallformats.Leagueswithalternativerulesorhybridstructuresaregoingtorequireabitoftweaking.However,therearesomeunderlyingfactsthatareimportanttoknow.BABSisallaboutskillandrisk.Webreakthesedownintosomebroadcategories,butthesecategoriesarenotintendedtocorrelatedirectlywithanyparticularfantasystatisticalcategory.So,whileBABSmeasurespower,thatisnotjustabouthomeruns.It’salsoaboutdoublesandtriples(forthoseleaguesthatusethose),andbyextension,therunsandRBIsthataredrivenbythosepowerstats.BABSmeasuresspeed,butthatincludesstolenbases,triplesandevenrunsscored.Theratingalsoincludeshowoftenarunnergetsagreenlightandhowoftenhestealssuccessfully,makingitamoreencompassingevaluator.TheBattingEffectivenessratingmeasureseachbatter’sabilitytomakecontact–whichincludeshisbattingeye–andhowhardhemakescontact.Yes,wecanusethisasaproxyforbattingaverage,butitalsoaffectsjustabouteveryotheroffensivestatistic.Similarly,thePitchingEffectivenessratingisnotjustERAbutmoreofanoverall“pitchingtool”metric.Itincludesstrikeoutsandwalks(ameasureofcontrol,dominanceandcommand)aswellasanormaldistributionofwhatshouldhappenwhenanopposingbathitsaball.WhileitmaynotseemlikeBABShasWHIPcovered,itdoes,thoughmoreindirectly.Thestrikeoutratingdoesmeasurejuststrikeouts,butinamorenuancedmannerbecauseitalsoincludesswingingstrikesandfirstpitchstrikes.Sincestrikeoutspreventbaserunners,whichinturnpreventruns,youcanalsosaythatthishasanindirecteffectonERAandWHIPaswell.TheBABSskillsratingsaregoodproxiesforoverallskillregardlessoftheexactcategories.Whiletheyincludetheelementsofstandard5×5rotostatistics,theyarealsofineforleaguesthatusesimilarstats,suchasdoubles,triples,sluggingaverage,SB-CS,K/9andothers.Forthoseleaguesthatuseaplayingtimestatlikeat-batsorinnings,theFull/Mid/Part/No-timerindicatorsarethebestthatyoucandoforthat.

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Therankingoftheseskillselementsarerelativetotheirimpactonoverallrunscoringandverylooselytiedto5×5roto.Sincethereisnorealone-to-onecorrelationofaBABSratingtoafantasystat,theweightsthatyourleague’sformatrequiresmightneedtobeadjusted.Forinstance,ifyouareinaleaguethatawardsvaluetobothHRsandsluggingaverage(oritscomponents),thatextraemphasisonpowerskillisnotgoingtobereflectedbythecurrentAssetGrouprankings.Youaregoingtohavetoelevatepowerhittersonyourrankinglist.Therankingsforanyskillthatismeasuredbyredundantstatcategoriesorgivengreaterweightwillneedtobeadjusted.OneOtherStatOkay,BABSdoesn’tcovereverything.Thereisonestatthatisnotanintrinsicpartoftheskillsratings.Unfortunately(orfortunately),manyleaguesuseit.Holds.Idon’tparticularlylikethiscategoryfromabaseballperspective,butitservesausefulpurposeinfantasyasitexpandsthevalueofmanyreliefpitchers.ThechallengewithHolds,likeSaves,isthatit’srole-based,notskills-based.YoufirsthavetoidentifywhichpitcherswillhavetherolethatputstheminpositiontogetHolds.Then,youprojecteachpitcher’snumberofholdsusingacomprehensive,integratedmulti-disciplinarysystemcalledOne-EyedDart-Throwing.FeelfreetoaddanindicatortoBABStoidentifywhothesepitchersmightbe.Asforthe“howmany?”question,I’ddefaulttotheskills/riskratingsforguidance.Intheend,it’salways“DraftSkills,NotRoles.”LeagueSizesandTargetsManyalternativeleagueadjustmentsjustrequirechangingthetargetsbasedonleaguesize.Thereisnomagichere.Allthecurrenttargetsarebasedonhowdeepaparticularleaguedraftsintothetalentpool.Ifyourleague’sdraftpenetrationissimilartooneofthethreesetsofbenchmarksI’vesetup,feelfreetousethem.Forthosethataredifferent,pro-ratethetargetssothey’reclose.

Format #Tms xRoster= Depth/ Pool= Penetration12-teammixed12 x23 = 276/ 750= 37%15-teammixed15 x23 = 345/ 750= 46%12-teamAL/NL 12 x23 = 276/ 375= 74%Yourleague ?? x?? = ???/ ???= ???

Multiplythenumberofteamsinyourleaguebyyouractiverostersize.Thatgivesyouthenumberofplayersdraftedinyourleague(Depth).Thendividethatbythetotalpopulationofplayersyouaredrafting(Pool).Ifit’sanAL/NL-onlyleague,thatnumberis375.Ifit’samixedleague,thatnumberis750.Ifyouareinahybrid

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leaguethatincludessometeamsfromoneleagueandsomefromanother,youcandothatmath.Dividingyourdraftpool(Depth)bythetotalpopulation(Pool)yieldsyourleague'spenetrationpercentage.Ifthatpercentageiswithinfivepointsorsoofoneoftheabovestandards,justusethosesametargets.Ifyourpercentageissignificantlydifferentfromtheabove,pro-ratethetargets.Ifthepenetrationpercentissmaller,increasethenumberofplayersrequiredtomeettheBABSAssetminimums,anddecreasethenumberofLiabilitylimits.Andviceversaifyourpercentageishigherthanoneofthestandards.IwouldnotfutzwiththeindividualAssetandLiabilitytargetswithineachlevel.Rememberthatit’snotaboutthestatsbuttheoverallskillandhowdeepyou’redraftingintotheplayerpool.

So….Ifmyleaguepenetrationis32%,Icanusethe12-teammixedvariables,butifit's31%,thenIhavetostartdoingmath?

Frankly,those"fivepercentagepoints"areaballparknumber.Ifthepenetrationpercentageis37%andyourleague’sis31%,clearlythat’sstillprettyclose.Ifyouleague’sis29%,that’sfurtherawaybutmaybeit’scloseenoughforyou.Useyourjudgment.Ifyoudon'twanttodomath,thendon'tdomath.Rememberthatprecisionisnotourfriend.AlternativeFormatsThereisaworldoutsideofRotisseriebutIdon’tthinkIwouldmaketoomanychangestoaccommodateotherformats.Sinceit’sallabouttheskillsandrisk,andnotaboutspecificcategories,mosteveryformatcanbenefitfromhowBABSexpressesthosevariables.Afewtweaks,perhaps:ScoresheetBaseball/Simulations:Thesavescategoryissuperfluousherebutthesesimgameshavealwaysbeenaboutskillsinlieuofroles.Wedon’tcaptureanydefensivemetricsbutthatisacommondeficiencyofmostothervaluationsystems.Pointsgames:GamesthataredrivenbycountingstatsandhavenoratiocategoriesareservedquitewellbyBABS’sAsset/Liabilityratings.Forexample,BABS’sPowerratingincorporatesdoublesandtriplessoitservesthepointsgamerparticularlywell.However,sinceitdoesn’tmatterwherethosepointscomefrom,looktowardtheoverallAssettargetandnotnecessarilytheindividualskillstargets.Ofcourse,ifyourleagueparametersgivespecialweighttocertainskills,dofocusonthose.Youmightneedtomakeadjustmentsintherankings.Sincestartingpitcherspotentiallyhaveelevatedvalueinthesegames,youaregoingtowanttoelevateyourmostdominantstartersontheBABSspreadsheet.

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Head-to-Head:ThebestH2Hplayersarethosewhoareconsistent,week-to-week,butthat’stoughtoprojectsoI’dstilljustfocusontheskills.IcouldsuggestloweringtheLiabilitylimitsforinjury-proneplayerssincethatpotentiallyaffectsconsistency,butreally,thatadvicecouldapplytoanyformat.InH2Hleagues,someownersemploythestrategyofignoringcertaincategories,especiallythosethataccumulatefewcountingstatsonaweeklybasis.Theweeklyvolatilityofsaves,orpossiblysteals,forinstance,providegreatbenefittoluckyowners.Ifyoudecidetodothis,justignorethoseratings,andpossiblyadjusttherankings.Inall,justuseyourjudgment.Nothinghereisahardandfastrule.BABSisallaboutnuance.That’swhatIloveabouther.SalaryCap:Dependinguponwhichgameyouplay,youwouldhavetoenterthefixedsalariesintoBABSandlookforplayerswheretheirsalarydoesn’tmatchupwiththeirskill/riskprofile.It’sthesameexercisewedonowforauctionleaguesexceptthatthesalariesareassignedbeforehand.Intruth,thesalarycapgameoffersthepurestmethodtoteaseoutprofitandlossascomparedtoanyotherformat.No-TradingLeagues:Leaguesinwhichthereisnotradingremoveacriticaltoolfromyourin-seasonrostermanagementarsenal.Theseleaguesenactthatruleforareason,butitdoesforceyoutoadjustyourdraftstrategy.Thankfully,BABSisalreadystructuredforthemorebalancedapproachnecessaryinno-tradeleagues.Youcan'thopetodealforstealsorsaves,soyourdrafthastofocusmoreoncategoricalbalance.Andifnothingelse,BABSisallaboutbalance.DFS:Constructingarosterinthedailyfantasygameshasbecomeascience,withvirtuallydozensofvariablestoconsider.Iwouldnottinkertoomuchhere.ButBABSstillhasarole.Beforeyoufinalizeyourpitcherselections,alwayslookateachpitcher'sBABSrating.Alwaysoptforapitcherwithafoundationofpositiveassetsoversomeonewithalesserprofile.Donotuseastarterunlesshehasatleastan(e)ERArating,andinthecaseoftwopitcherDFSgames,atleastoneneedstoalsohaveaminimum(k)strikeoutrating.Higherratingsarealwaysbetter.Samebasicadvicegoesforthebatterside.Alwaysoptforaplayerwithsomepositiveassetsoversomeonewithalesserprofile.Atleastsixofyoureightbattersshouldhaveaminimum(p)powerrating.It'sokaytosprinkleinafewspeedguysbutyouwanttomakesuretheydon’trepresentthemajorityofplayers.AndnobodywithaSkillLiabilityshouldevermakeitontoyourroster.IfaplayermeetsallthemajorcriteriaforconsiderationbuthasapoorBABSrating,itbecomesajudgmentcall.Personally,IsometimestemptfatebutI'llneverrostermorethanone"unBABSian"player,evenifalltheothercriteriapointtosolidpotential.Stayawayfromguyswhodon’thaveaminimumskillsprofile,andBABSisthefinalarbiterofthat.

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TheBABSProjectChapter15

BABSIn-SeasonThisisgoingtobeaproblematicchapter.Ihadconsideredcuttingitfromthiseditionofthebook,butthereareafewinterestingpointsthatareworthyofdiscussion.Hereistheproblem:ResearchsubsequenttothefirstpublicationofthisbookshowedthatBABSisbestusedasadraftpreparatorytool.Thesmallersamplesizesusedin-seasonexpandthestatisticalerrorbarstoowideforBABStohavemuchvalue.Still,wedopostBABSratingsupdatesatBABSbaseball.comseveraltimesduringtheseason,thoughtheirrelevancecomeswithahugeredcaveat.So,Iurgeyoutoreadthischapterwithgreatcaution.

***Let'ssayit'searlyMayandyou'relookingatsomejuicystatsbeingputupbyaplayerwho'sneverperformedatthatlevelbefore.BABSsays,“No!Stop!Don’tlookatthosestats!Lookattheskillsprofileinstead.NomatterwhatnumbersaplayerisputtingupNOW,oddsarehisperformanceisgoingtobepulledinthedirectionofthoseAsset/Liabilitymarkers.”Infact,youmightnotevenrealizethatthenumbersaplayerispostingactuallyfittheBABSratingsperfectly.It’stoughnottobemarriedtothenumbers,butrememberthatBABSisyourmistress.Herearesomegeneralpointstokeepinmind:Assetsgenerallychangeslowly.Ifwe’vedoneagoodjobofevaluatingeachplayer’sskillduringthepre-season,thoseratingsshouldstillapply,barringanymajorchangeincircumstance.Thebroadskillsgroupingsshouldalsopreventoverreactiontosmallsamplesizes.Sodon’tbetakeninbyearlyseasonperformancesthataremarkedlydifferentfromexpectation.Playersareinconsistentasarule,andstatslikebattingaveragearevirtuallyimpossibletopindownin-season.BABScanvalidateearlyperformance.WhenTrevorStoryopenedthe2016seasonpoundinghomerafterhomer,itcameasnosurprisethathispre-seasonAssetratingwas[P+].Thatratingservedtheimportantpurposeofvalidatinghisearlypoweroutburst.

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Ofcourse,theAssetsdon’ttellthewholestory.InStory’scase,his(|AV-,EX)Liabilitiesshowedthatcautionwasstillwarranted.Therewasbattingaveragedownsideandhislackofexperiencewidenedtheerrorbaronourexpectations.Thoseriskratingsareimportant.Performancesthatdovaryfromexpectationwilloftenbeexplainedbyaplayer’sLiabilityratings.PlayingTimewillbevolatile.WhileAssetschangeslowly,playingtimecanchangequickly.Circumstancesaffectingroleswillpushplayersaroundallseason.BABShandlesthiswellbysortingplayingtimeintothebroadcategoriesoffull-time,mid-time,part-timeandno-time.However,yourbestcourseofactionistonotreacttoeverylittlechangeincircumstance.

• Afront-linerpushedtothebenchmightstaythereonlyuntilsomeotherplayerslumpsandopensupaspotinthelineup.

• ANo.9hitterpusheduptotoNo.2intheordermightstaythereonlyuntil

hisfirst1-for-10slump.

• Arelieverboostedintothecloserrolemightstaythereonlyuntilhisthirdblownsave.

Ofcourse,iftheaboveplayerssucceed,thatwillhavesomeimpactontheirpotentialperformancenumbers.Buttheunderlyingriskpreventsusfromevergoingfull-inonachange,whichiswhyBABS'broadplayingtimecategoriesreflectrealitysowell.Allthismeansis,realityisfluid.Anymanagerialdecisionisgoingtostickonlyuntilthenextdecisionneedstobemade.Wecannever,ever,ever,ever,evertreatadecisionasafixedreality.Andso,inmostcases,wearenotgoingtobemakingmanychangestothebroadplayingtimeratings.Call-upsarechallenging.Promotedminorleaguersareproblematicbecausetheimpetusforthepromotionisoftenasmallsampleofminorleagueperformance.Logically,youcan’ttrustit,butteamsstillmakedecisionsbasedon100ABor50IP,orless.ForBABS,call-upsfallintotwogroups:ThefirstgroupiscomposedofplayerswhoBABSwasabletorateduringthepre-season.Thoseratingswerebasedonalargeenoughpoolofperformancedatatobecredible,sopreferencewouldbetocontinuetorelyonthoseratingsintheearly-

26

going,atleastuntiltheplayeramassesasufficientperformancesamplethatsupportsorrefutestheoriginalrating.Thesecondgroupiscomposedofplayerswhoriseoutofnowhere.ThesewereplayerslikeJeremyHazelbakerandRossStriplingin2016.Theirvalueshotupquicklyearlyintheseason,generatedatonoffreeagentinterest,andthenflamedoutasquicklyastheyappeared.Atthetimeofthesurge,wedidnotknowwhethertheywouldsustaintheirperformances,buttherehadtobeawaytovaluethemanywayandfigureoutwhich,ifeither,mighthavesomelonger-termpotential.Thesearecrapshoots.Youcanchoosetoridethewaveofsmall-sampledatathatdrovethecall-upbutyoualsochoosetoshouldertheconcurrentrisk.Thesedays,anybreathinghumanbeingwhocanstringtogetherafewdaysofeye-openingstats–evenifthatperformanceisacompletedeparturefromanythingthatplayerhaseverdone–willgeneraterabidinterestfromscavengingowners.WARNING–SmallSampleSizeAlert!WARNING–RecencyBiasAlert!WARNING–FOMOAlert! Aaaand….we'vecomefullcircle.Youcanchoosetotakethatride,reflexivelygrabbingatanypossiblesourceof"whoknows,maybe"value.Oryoucanchoosetotakeamoremeasuredapproach,directingyourin-seasonresourcesatcommoditieswithmorejustifiableupside.TheformerprocesswillyieldfullmisseslikeHazelbaker,andtoalesserdegree,Stripling,butalsoafewout-of-the-bluehitslikeAledmysDiazwasin2016.Thelatterprocesswouldyieldplayerswhohitthegroundrunning,likeMaxKeplerandTreaTurner,butalsoshort-termmisseslikeJoseBerriosandArchieBradley.SoIguesseithercouldwork,thoughyouhavetothinkthatthemeasuredapproachwouldhaveahigherhitrate.BABSjustshrugshershouldersandsays,“Happyhunting!”

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TheBABSProjectChapter16

WhatMakesBABSTick?Okay,let'sstartsummarizingthelessonsthatBABSisteachingus.It'syourturntoreviewwhatyou'velearned.Hereareheropinionsonsomeimportanttopics:Onplayerprojections:Wetakeamassiveleapoffaithinproclaimingouraptitudeassoothsayers.Yes,paststatisticscanbemanipulatedtoprojectfutureperformance,butwithinaverywiderangeofoutcomes.Theproblemis,forourfantasyleagues,weneedfarmoreprecisionthanwecaneverrealisticallyachieve. BABSaddressesthisbyfocusingondemonstratedskillsratherthanguessingat

projectednumbers,andexpressingthoseskillsinbroadterms.Ontheconstructionofplayerprojections:Bycombiningdisparatevariables–homeruns,ILdays,newballpark,etc.–intoasingleprojectedstatline,youlosetheabilitytodistinguishtheskillfromtherisk.Yousimplycan’ttosseverythingtogether,turnitintoasinglestatline,andclaimit’saccurate. BABSaddressesthisbyconstructingaprofilethatdescribeseachplayer'sskills

andriskfactorsseparately,inabalancesheetofassetsandliabilities.Ontheperceptionofskill:Wespendsomuchtimetryingtofinddifferencesbetweenplayersinordertorankthemthatweignorethefactthatmostofthemactuallyhaveverysimilarskillsets.Yes,thenumberstheyputupmightbeallovertheboardbutthat’sa“numbers”problem,notaskillsproblem.Playersaremorealikethantheyaredifferent.

BABSaddressesthisbygroupingplayerswithlikeskillsprofilestogether,inAssetGroups.Inthiswaywecanseeplayerswhoshouldbevaluedsimilarly.

…andso:Themorethemarketplacetriestodifferentiatebetweenlike-skilledplayers,rankingtheminsometypeofperceived-valueorder,themoreopportunitythereisforDraftDayprofit.

BABSaddressesthisbyrankingthoselike-skilledplayersbytheirADPsorAAVstouncoverwhoisovervaluedorundervaluedbythemarketplace.

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OtherBABSiantenetsOnprojectingplayingtime:Istoppedpayingmuchattentiontoplayingtimeprojectionsalongtimeago.Ifmaybehalfoftheplayerpopulationisgoingtobeontheinjuredlistatonetimeoranother,plateappearancesandinningsaregoingtobeshiftingconstantly.Ifaplayerisblockedonadepthchartbuthasskill,therewillalwaysbeaninjuryorpositionalshiftthatwill“miraculously”openupaspot.Thereisnosuchthingas"nopathtoplayingtime."Ontrends:Wefantasyleaguersneedtofindpatterns.Butwhenthedataitselfissuspect–obscuredingreatmeasurebynoise–maybeit’sbetternottobelookingforsomethingthatmightnotexist.Oninjuryrisk:Everyplayerstartswitha25percentchanceofspendingsometimeontheIL.Tothat,weaddgreateroddstothoseplayerswithaninjuryhistoryorcurrenthealthconcerns.Onexperiencerisk:Anyplayerwithfewerthan1000plateappearancesor300inningsisnotyetafullyformedentity.Thebiggestriskisnotknowingwhatthatplayer'struebaselineis.Onauctionpricing:Don’tsweatit;auctionpricingisgoingtobemarket-drivenanyway.Ifyouareconvincedthataplayerisworth$25andlandhimfor$21,youwillhaveoverpaidiftherestofyourleagueseeshimasnomorethana$19player.Evenifheisreallyworth$30.Onaveragedraftposition(ADP)rankings:ADPshaveverylittlerelationshiptoplayervalue.Theyareonlygoodforsettingmarkettendencies.Onlyfivepercent(5%!)ofplayerswillearnbacktheirexactdraftroundandonlyone-in-threepicksoverallwillreturnfairvalue.Ontargetingplayersattheirpeakage:Overrated.Withonly23rosterspots,theoddsofrosteringanoutlierarenotmuchdifferentfromtheoddsofrosteringaplayerthatfitsyourtarget.Onparkeffectadjustments:Mostlyawasteoftime.Anyadjustmentcouldbewellwithinthelimitsofnormalstatisticalvariance.A20percentswing(whichishuge)couldequatetothreehomeruns–whichcouldeasilybestatisticalnoise.Ifyouuseitatall,focusonthemargins–playersmovingfromortotheextremeparks.Ignoreanythingelseinbetween.Onpositionscarcity:Itwouldonlymatterifwecouldreallyprojecttheplayersatthebottomoftheplayerpool.Butend-gamersarenotsufficientlyprojectabletojustifythenumbersyougiveupwhenyouoverpayforatop-rankedplayer.Sooverpayby$1-$3,oraroundortwo,atthebottomormiddleratherthanoverpayingby$5-$10,orgivingup2-5roundsofvalueatthetop.

29

TheBABSProjectChapter17

Wheredowegofromhere?So,whatdidyouthink?

Alotofwords.Uncharacteristicallyfewnumbers,especiallyforyou.

Okay…butareyoubuyingintoanyofthis?Um…Ithinkso.Statsareourenemy.Precisionisfutile.Wecan'tpredictthefuture.It'sallaboutthemarketplace.BABSisourfriend.Maybeoneday,ifIcanworkupenoughnerve,BABScouldbecomemorethanjustafriend.

Hmm,okay.

ButI'mnotdonewithyouyet,bigshot.Ihaveonelastveryimportantquestion.HowdoIknowthatallthisefforttolearnyournewsystemisgoingtogetmeanyclosertotheHolyGrail?IsitpossibleI'lljustendupinthesameplaceasIwouldhaveusingmymorefamiliarmethods?

Sure,it'spossible.Butletmeaskyouafewquestions:

• Doyouseehownumberscanbecomesogranularthattheyobscureanytruemeaning?Whileyouareobsessingoverwhethertheconsistent35-HRhitterwhoslumpedto24lastyearwillreboundenoughtobeabetterpickthantheconsistent24-HRhitterwhoslammed35lastyear,BABSisjuststockpilingpowerskill.

• Doyouseethatnoamountofprojectivetinkeringwillbeabletotellyouhow

manyplateappearancestocountonforyourstarplayerwhojusthadoff-seasonkneesurgery?BABSseparatesthatplayer'sunderlyingskillfromhisinjuryriskandstillgivesyouaplanningtoolforplayingtime.

• Willyourmethodsbeabletotellyouwhetheryouaretakingontoomuch

injuryrisk,orwhetheryouhaveagoodbalanceofyouthandexperience?

• Areyourmethodssimpleenoughtotellyou–ataglance–whetheryouhaveenoughpower,orspeed,orstrikeouts,withouthavingtorelyonprojectionsthatarehistoricallyfaulty?

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Okay,okay,Igetit.I'vegotamillionoftheserhetoricalquestions.

Icanseenow.BABSisnotjustastrategy.Sheisamindset.Sheisalifestyle.Andmaybeonedayshewillbecomemymistress.

So,what'snext?Sinceyou'vegottenthisfar,you'veearnedtheopportunityforBABStocomevisitandhelpyouprepareforthisyear'sdraft.BABSDraftGamePlan,hereatBABSbaseball.com,isanintensivetwo-monthtorrentoftools–everythingyouneedtobuildtheoptimalfantasybaseballroster.Herearethebasicsofwhatyouget:EarlyFebruary:SettingtheBABSFoundation

• What'snewwithBABS• TutorialsforBABSdatabase,spreadsheetandRotoLab• Databaseupdate• Positionalanalyses(overview,1B,3B,2B,SS,OF,SP,RP)• BABSBaseballLeaguesignups

Mid-Februaryupdate:BABSSpotlightPlayers

• Databaseupdate• BestBABStargets(highskills,lowADP)• Triple-assetplayers• Highriskplayersgoingfartoohigh• Playerhistoryscans• BABSBaseballLeaguesignups• Mailbag

EarlyMarchupdate:BABSGameStrategies

• Databaseupdate• Snakedraftstrategyfortheupcomingseason• Auctionstrategyfortheupcomingseason• Strategiesforotherformats• Playerhistoryscans• BABSBaseballLeaguessignupdeadline• Mailbag

Mid-Marchfinalupdate:BABSFinalUpdates

• Databaseupdate• Springtrainingupdate• High-skilledpart/no-timers

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• Playerhistoryscans• BestBABStargetsupdate• Expertsleagueresults• Mailbag

Thislistofcontentsispreliminaryandsubjecttochange.IfRickeyHendersondecidestocomeoutofretirementnextAugust,wemightwanttowriteaboutthat.

Ha,ha.There'salothere.ButwhathappensafterMarch?

Well,asInotedinChapter15,BABSworksbestasadraftpreptoolsoourfocusisgoingtobeonmaximizingthatvalue.However,somefolksdoliketoseetheseason-longgerminationprocesssowepublishdatabaseupdatesinearlyMay,earlyJune,aroundtheAll-StarBreak,andinmid-August.ThoseupdatescomeprepackagedwithaHUGEREDSMALL-SAMPLECAVEAT.Usethematyourownrisk.Thereareplentyofotherin-seasonresources. Andthatwillbeenoughformetoacemyleagues?Thatwillbeenoughtoprovideasolidfoundationforyoutocontend.BABSknowsthatyou'llhaveawanderingeyeduringtheseasonandtakeadvantageofotherinformationsources.She'sokaywiththatbecausesheknowsyou'llcomebacktohereverywinter.Shehasawarmbed.That'sit.I'mdone.Godraft.

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BABSVARIABLES SKILLExtremeImpact Top10%ofthatskill P+,S+,A+,E+,K+SignificantImpact Top25%ofthatskill PW,SB,AV,ER,KKModerateImpact Top50%ofthatskill p,s,a,e,kNoprojectableimpact Bottom50%SkillsLiability Bottom25% -P,-S,-A,-E,-KPLAYINGTIME BATTERS PITCHERF Full-time 500+PA 180+IPM Mid-time 350-499PA 120-179IPP Part-time 200-349PA 85-119IP- No-time Fewerthan200PA Fewerthan85IPEXPERIENCERISK Bat SP RP

PA IP IPEX <onefullseasonofMLBexperience 500 150 75e <twofullseasonsofMLBexperience 1,000 300 150TARGETSAssetMinimums 12-tmmixed 15-tmmixed 12-teamAL/NLPower 14 14 9Speed 8 7 4BattingEff. 14 14 9PitchingEff. 7 6 4Strikeouts 7 6 4LiabilityMaximums 12-tmmixed 15-tmmixed 12-teamAL/NLBATTERSSkillsRisk 0 0 0HealthRisk 3 4 2ExperienceRisk 3 4 2PITCHERSSkillsRisk 0 0 0HealthRisk 2 2 1ExperienceRisk 2 2 1

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AbouttheAuthor

RONSHANDLERhasbeenwritingaboutfantasybaseballandbaseballanalysissince1986,andwasthefirsttodevelopsabermetricapplicationsforfantasyleagueplay.HeistheauthoroftheBaseballForecaster,anannualbookwhichhasbeenaroundsince1986,andthefounderofBaseballHQ.com(1996)andtheFirstPitchForumnationalconferenceseries(1996).RonspearheadedthecreationoftheToutWarsnationalexpertscompetition,whichwasthefocusofthe2006Fantasylandbookand2010documentaryfilm.HehasfinishedTop3innationalexpertsplaydozensoftimessince1994.RonhasbeenaregularcolumnistforUSAToday,ESPN.comandTheAthletic.com.Hespentthe2004seasonasanadvisortotheSt.LouisCardinals.HereceivedaLifetimeAchievementAwardfromtheFantasySportsTradeAssociationin2005andwasinductedintotheFantasySportsWritersAssociationHallofFamein2012.Hiscompletebioappearshere.