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AWBA Water Supply and Demand Study
October 4, 2011AWBA Meeting
Comparison 1997 Base to Base
1997 Base
• 1997 Reservoir Elevations• 15,000 AF Indian Firming• Indian Firming thru 2097 • Pro Rata CAP/On-River• Probability Base Shortage
Determination
Base
• 2012 Reservoir Elevation• 23,724 AF Indian Firming• Indian Firming Thru 2108• Shortage Sharing Proposal• Stepped Shortage
Determination
First Shortage YearBase vs. 1997 Base
Shortage VolumeBase vs. 1997 Base
Number of ShortagesBase vs. 1997 Base
Credits RemainingBase vs. 1997 Base
General Assumptions
• Starting Reservoir Elevation Jan. 2012• Shortage Triggers• CAP Shortage Distribution• No Yuma Desalter• M&I Firming thru 2097• Indian Firming thru 2108• Indian Firming 23,724 AF
Base vs. Scenarios
Base
• On-River/CAP shortage distribution pro rata based on demand
Scenarios
• Director’s Shortage Sharing Recommendation
ScenariosScenario
Upper Basin Depletion Schedule
On-River Tribal Schedule
Lake Mead Shortage Criteria
Mexico Shares in Shortage
Model Run Completed
AAWBA Upper Basin
AssumptionTen Tribes
Interim Guidelines Extended
Yes 8/29/2011
BAWBA Upper Basin
AssumptionTen Tribes
Interim Guidelines Extended
No 8/29/2011
CAWBA Upper Basin
AssumptionADWR 2010-2011
UpdateInterim Guidelines
ExtendedYes 8/30/2011
DAWBA Upper Basin
AssumptionADWR 2010-2011
UpdateInterim Guidelines
ExtendedNo
EUpper Basin
ScheduleTen Tribes
Interim Guidelines Extended
Yes 8/29/2011
FUpper Basin
ScheduleTen Tribes
Interim Guidelines Extended
No 8/29/2011
GUpper Basin
ScheduleADWR 2010-2011
UpdateInterim Guidelines
ExtendedYes 8/29/2011
HUpper Basin
ScheduleADWR 2010-2011
UpdateInterim Guidelines
ExtendedNo 8/30/2011
Shortage VolumeBase, Scenario A and Scenario C
First Shortage YearBase, Scenario A and Scenario C
Number of ShortagesBase, Scenario A and Scenario C
Credits RemainingBase, Scenario A and Scenario C
Shortage VolumeMedian Traces
First Shortage YearMedian Traces
Number of ShortagesMedian Trace
Credits RemainingBase, Scenario A and Scenario C
Discussion
