Aviation CO2 Emissions in the Context of the Paris Agreement

on Climate Change

Dr John Broderick, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of

Mechanical, Aerospace and Civil Engineering, University of Manchester

Acknowledgements: Prof Alice Larkin, Dr Jaise Kuriakose, Prof Kevin Anderson

T+E Aviation Workshop, Brussels, 23/01/18

Atmospheric concentration

The global CO2 concentration increased from ~277ppm in 1750 to 403ppm in 2016 (up 45%)2016 was the first full year with concentration above 400ppm

Globally averaged surface atmospheric CO2 concentration. Data from: NOAA-ESRL after 1980; the Scripps Institution of Oceanography before 1980 (harmonised to recent data by adding 0.542ppm)

Source: NOAA-ESRL; Scripps Institution of Oceanography; Le Quéré et al 2017; Global Carbon Budget 2017

Objectives of the Paris Agreement

Objectives of the Paris Agreement

Translating the Temperature Objectives

Translating the Temperature Objectives

Source: IPCC AR5 (2013) SPM fig 10

Climate Responds To Cumulative Emissions

Deduct emissions to date to give budget

Cumulative CO2 budget (2016-2100) in GtCO2Data from WG1, AR5, removing 2011-2015 est. CO2

ΔTp <1.5°C <2°C

33% 650 1300

50% 350 1100

66% 200 800

Breakdown of global fossil fuel and industry emissions

Source: CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2017; Global Carbon Budget 2017

Global emissions from fossil fuel and industry: 36.2 ± 2 GtCO2 in 2016, 62% over 1990

Bunkers 1.1Gt, 106% over 1990

Aviation & shipping emissions growth

0.8

0.9

1

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Ind

exe

d 1

99

0=1

Global CO2

Aviation & Shipping

YearShare of

global inclLU

Share of total excl

LU

1990 3.7% 4.6%

2013 4.2% 4.5%

Data: IEA detailed fuel est.

ICAO central demand forecast intl aviation, RPK

Central demand forecast from CAEP/9, via ICAO, 2013,

Destination Green, 2013 Environmental Report, 3% per year

Airbus GMF finds 15 year doubling in aviation RPK

Long term forecast is continued CO2 growth

Source: Owen and Lee (2010) 10.1021/es902530z

Though Boeing notes efficiency improvements due to increased load factors and tech change

What if….?

Q: What if combined aviation and shipping CO2 grows at 2% until 2030, peaks, then reduces to a max of 6% p.a. reduction?

A: Half of 66% chance of 1.5°C budget is consumed by these two sectors alone (or a third of 50% budget)

Alternatively, assuming aviation & shipping…

Maintain a proportional share of the budget

Combine with future demand projections (4 to 6% pa RPK)

What does this mean for CO2 budgets & intensity change?

Method: Anderson & Bows (2014) Executing a Scharnow turn: reconciling shipping emissions with international commitments on climate change, Carbon Management, 3:6, 615-628, http://dx.doi.org/10.4155/cmt.12.63

Demand assumed constant from 2040 onwards

Required annual % change in carbon intensity (gCO2/RPK) from 2016, towards zero. Fleet fuel efficiency improvement 1.5% p.a. 2009-2020 (Boeing, 2017)

ΔTp <1.5°C <2°C

33% 9.2% 5.5%

50% 13.8% 6.2%

66% 20.0% 7.8%

Annual CO2 intensity reductions

Sustainable Aviation (UK) Roadmap

Offsetting initiatives will struggle to find credible sellers

NETs are pervasive in IAM 2°C scenarios=> Competition for bio-resources

Source: Anderson and Peters (2016) http://science.sciencemag.org/content/354/6309/182

Summary

• CO2 intensity changes for 1.5°C unrealizable?

• Anticipated rate of growth is globally and nationally problematic

• Substantial technical effort to reach 2°C

And demand management

• Global offsetting will struggle for credibility

• Competition for bio-resources from other sectors

• Ultimate target has to be zero carbon aviation

Thanks

Contact:

john.broderick@manchester.ac.uk

See also:Bows-Larkin (2015) All adrift: aviation, shipping, and climate change policy, Climate Policy, 15:6, 681-702, http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2014.965125

Anderson & Bows (2014) Executing a Scharnow turn: reconciling shipping emissions with international commitments on climate change, Carbon Management, 3:6, 615-628, http://dx.doi.org/10.4155/cmt.12.63

Anderson K, Bows A. (2011) Beyond “dangerous” climate change: emission scenarios for a new world. Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci. 369 (1934):20–44 http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/369/1934/20