Automotive Market Trends - Be Car Care Aware · Source: Experian Automotive • Smart had highest increase, with their ... Kia and Cadillac had vehicles in top ten Model Owned Q3

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Automotive Market Trends

Jeffrey Anderson, Director of Consulting & Analytics

© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 2

Presentation Overview

3rd / 4th Quarter 2012 Automotive Market Overview

• Vehicles in Operation (VIO)

• Vehicle Registrations

• New and Used

• New Vehicle Market Share

• Purchase Loyalty

• Corporate and Brand

• Additional Industry Insight

• Impact of Gas Prices

• Segment Share

• Super bowl Advertising


Experian Automotive Driving the automotive industry forward

Experian Automotive enables clients to better understand the

market, the vehicles and the people who buy them.

MARKET VEHICLES PEOPLE ● ●


Our core data asset is our North American Vehicle Database, housing:

Over 5.5 billion records

1.2 billion titles and 1.3 billion registrations

Over 240 million title brands

93 million accident – related events

U.S.

Nearly 700 million vehicles – U.S

246 million vehicles in operation – U.S.

Canada

About 50 million vehicles – Canada

20 million vehicles in operation – Canada

Integrated Data Assets North American vehicle database


VEHICLES IN

OPERATION


Current VIO – U.S. Summary by Model Year

Source: Experian Automotive as of September 30, 2012 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)

79.8 percent of vehicles are 15 years old or less

There are 246,850,287 light duty vehicles on the road

79.8%

Average Age of Vehicles (years)


Current VIO – U.S. Summary by Model Year


Change in VIO vs. Q3 2011:

13,890,000 vehicles added

10,650,000 out of operation

There are 246,850,287 light duty vehicles on the road


Length of Ownership

Average Length of Ownership (months)


Current VIO – Vehicle Segment


Top 5 Segments = 49.7 percent of VIO

Hybrid Vehicles represent 0.98 percent of current VIO

(nearly half are Prius)


Current VIO – Percent Share

GM

Ford

Toyota

Honda

Chrysler

Hyundai

Nissan

Other

Vehicles In Operation: Share by Manufacturer

• Nearly 60 percent of all

vehicles in operation are

Domestic brands



Import Brand VIO Share

VIO

Sh

are

Current VIO – Import Share Trend

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011


2012


VEHICLE REGISTRATIONS


U.S. Vehicle Registrations - New

Source: Experian Automotive


U.S. Vehicle Registrations - Used



U.S. Vehicle Registrations: New and Used

Q4 2012 up 289,000 units

(9.2%) vs Q4 2011

15

New Vehicle Registrations


Used Vehicle Registrations

Relatively stable quarter over

quarter, with Q4 2012 showing

third straight drop (-2.4%)

2011

2012

2011

2012

2011

2012

2011

2012

2011

2012

2011

2012

2011

2012

2011

2012


New Vehicle Registrations

Source: Experian Automotive Corporation

New Vehicle Market:

Chrysler: +265k units

Honda: +247k units

Toyota: +431k units


Market Changers

Ranked by Unit Change


New Vehicle Registrations – Top 10 Market Changers


NVE (New Vehicle Entries) Q4 2012 Performance

New Vehicle Registrations Source: Experian Automotive

New entries equal more than 86,000 additional sales for 4th Quarter


MARKET SHARE


Who is up?

• Toyota 1.6% share

• Chrysler 0.7% share

• Honda 0.7% share

GM

Ford

Toyota

Honda

Chrysler

Hyundai

Nissan

Other

2012

Manufacturer Market Share Analysis

Who is down?

• GM -1.5% share

• Ford -1.2% share

• Hyundai -0.2% share

• Nissan -0.2% share

CY 2011 vs CY 2012 Market Share

GM

Ford

Toyota

Honda

Chrysler

Hyundai

Nissan

Other

2011



Market Share Trend

21


Manufacturer Market Share Analysis

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012


Who is up?

• VW 0.5% share

• Subaru 0.3% share

VW

Subaru

M-Benz

Volvo

BMW

Mazda

Mitsubishi

2012

Who is down?

• Mitsubishi -0.2% share

• Mazda -0.1% share

• BMW -0.1% share

VW

Subaru

M-Benz

Volvo

BMW

Mazda

Mitsubishi 2011


Manufacturer Market Share Analysis – The ‘Others’ CY 2011 vs CY 2012 Market Share


Market Share Analysis U.S. Imports vs. Domestics

Imp

ort

Bra

nd

M

ark

et

Sh

are

2007 2008 2009 2010


Reg

istr

ati

on

s

Import brands over 50 percent share

Gas Price Spikes to over $4.00 per gallon

Cash For Clunkers

2011

Japan Tsunami

2012


Market Share Analysis: New Vehicle Registrations and VIO

Import Brand Market Share

Mark

et

Sh

are


2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012


CUSTOMER LOYALTY


Garage Loyalty at the Brand Level

BMW

BMW

BMW

Lexus

Loyal

Not Loyal

Disposed Vehicle: Subsequent Purchase

Loyalty Types

•Multiple Levels

Corporate Loyalty measures whether a new vehicle purchase matches a prior new vehicle owned at the corporate level. Includes all brands under the corporate umbrella

Brand Loyalty measures whether a new vehicle purchase matches a prior new vehicle owned at the brand level.

Honda

Honda

Honda

Acura

Disposal Loyalty at the Corporate Level

Dodge

Dodge

Chrysler

Ford

Loyal

Not Loyal

Disposed Vehicle Subsequent Purchase

Corporate Loyalty Example:

Brand Loyalty Example:

Owned Vehicle:

Owned Vehicle:


Market Overview - Loyalty


Q3 2012 Corporate Loyalty


28


Corporate Loyalty by Quarter


2009 2010 2011 2012


Corporate Loyalty – Impact in Q3 2012 Registrations


Corp

ora

te L

oyalty

Loyalty Impact on New Registrations




Q3 2012 Brand Loyalty


Brand Loyalty – Top Gainers for Q3 2012


• Smart had highest

increase, with their

brand loyalty jumping

nearly 7 percent vs.

Q3 2011

• VW had the second

highest gain, a more

than 4.6 percent gain

• All of Toyota and

Honda corporate

brands had strong

rebound

Q3 2011 vs Q3 2012 Brand Loyalty: ranked by percentage increase


Brand Loyalty by Model: Top 10

32


• Ford Fusion owners

were most brand

loyal, with more than

five out of ten

returning to Ford

• Ford vehicles made

up seven of the top

ten in brand loyalty

• In addition, Chevrolet,

Kia and Cadillac had

vehicles in top ten

Model Owned

Q3 2012 Brand Loyalty


2007 – Who took from Whom?

64,000

Net Units

Ford (471,254)

GM (330,313)

Chrysler (225,213)

Honda 325,555

Toyota 701,225

Net Owner Migration

GM Ford

Toyota

Chrysler

Honda



Q3 2012: Who’s taking from Whom?

47,698

Net Units

GM (205,843)

Ford (5,476)

Chrysler 16,495

Honda 78,940

Toyota 115,884

Net Owner Migration

Cumulative through Q3 2012

GM


Ford

Toyota

Chrysler

Honda


ADDITIONAL INDUSTRY INSIGHTS


IMPACT OF GAS PRICES


Ne

w V

eh

icle

R

eg

istr

ati

on

s Source: Experian Automotive, U.S. Dept. of Energy

2008 2010 2009

Ga

s P

ric

e p

er

Ga

llo

n

Gas Prices vs. New Vehicle Registrations:

2011 2012


Correlation with Gas Price

Change in market share due to a $1 increase in gas price

-0.6%

-0.4%

-0.2%

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

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Source: Experian Automotive, U.S. Dept. of Energy

2008 2010 2009

Ga

s P

ric

e p

er

Ga

llo

n

Gas Prices vs. Segment Share:

2011 2012


SEGMENT SHARE


Segment Share by Model – Electric / Hybrid Cars


Toyota / Lexus vehicles represent 76.2 percent of total segment


Segment Share by Model – Large SUV


GM accounts for 71.1 percent of total segment


Segment Share by Model – Minivan


Chrysler Corp. accounts for over 44 percent of segment


Segment Share by Model – Small Car Budget


Kia’s Soul and Rio represent nearly 37 percent of segment


AUTOMOTIVE SUPER BOWL ADVERTISING


Automotive Super Bowl Advertising





Est. Ad Spend per Vehicle Registration (2012)


Conclusions

Import share of VIO continues upward trend to equal current sales share

Quarter-over-quarter growth in new vehicles registrations continues, with Q4 having strong percentage gain (9.2%) than prior quarter (and up more than 1 million units vs. Q4 2008)

Volume gains led by mid-size cars: Accord, Civic, Focus, Corolla

Toyota, Chrysler and Honda gained market share, while GM, Ford, Hyundai and Nissan lost share

Toyota on top in Corporate Loyalty for second straight quarter, but battle continues to be tight, with all the top manufacturers in the mid-40 percent range

Ongoing actual impact of gas prices on key segments is less than the initial spikes in share might indicate


Questions?


Documents

Automotive Market Trends - Be Car Care Aware · Source: Experian Automotive • Smart had highest increase, with their ... Kia and Cadillac had vehicles in top ten Model Owned Q3