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Australia’s trade supply chains — an introductionRob Bolin
Maritime and Rail Statistics Section
Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and
Regional Economics
The story so far…
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07
Financial Year
Do
llars
(b
illio
n)
Export Import
Show me the money…
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07
Financial Year
Do
llars
(b
illio
n)
Air Export Air Import Maritime Export Maritime Import
What about tonnages?
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700
1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07
Financial Year
To
nn
es (
mill
ion
)
Air Export Air Import Maritime Export Maritime Import
… and containers?
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07
Financial Year
Co
nta
iner
s (0
00s)
Full Imports Empty Imports Full Exports Empty Exports
Exports by commodity type
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07
Financial Year
To
nn
es (
mill
ion
)
Coal Cereal grains Iron ore & concentrates Other
Exports by destination region
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07
Financial Year
To
nn
es (
mill
ion
)
Japan & North Asia East Asia Europe South East Asia South Asia North and Central America Other
Imports by commodity type
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07
Financial Year
To
nn
es (
mill
ion
)
Chemicals Petroleum Other
Imports by origin region
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07
Financial Year
To
nn
es (
mill
ion
)
South East Asia East Asia Japan & North Asia Middle East North and Central America Europe Other
Where to from here?
• IMF GDP forecasts:– East Asia 7.5 per cent– Japan 1.4 per cent– Korea 3.9 per cent– South Asia 6.5 per cent– World 2.8 per cent
Projections – Iron Ore
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800
1998-99 2003-04 2009-10 2014-15 2019-20 2024-25
Financial Year
To
nn
es (
mill
ion
)
WA Qld/SA/Tas
Actual Forecast
Projections – Black Coal
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
350.0
1998-99 2003-04 2009-10 2014-15 2019-20 2024-25
Financial Year
To
nn
es (
mill
ion
)
NSW Qld SA/WA/Tas
Actual Forecast
Bulk exports to continue to grow strongly
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2002
/03
2003
/04
2004
/05
2005
/06
2006
/07
2007
/08
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/09
2009
/10
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/11
2011
/12
2012
/13
2013
/14
2014
/15
2015
/16
2016
/17
2017
/18
2018
/19
2019
/20
2020
/21
2021
/22
2022
/23
2023
/24
2024
/25
Financial Year
To
nn
es (
mill
ion
s)
Export Import
Actual Forecast
As will container movements
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
1999
/00
2000
/01
2001
/02
2002
/03
2003
/04
2004
/05
2005
/06
2006
/07
2007
/08
2008
/09
2009
/10
2010
/11
2011
/12
2012
/13
2013
/14
2014
/15
2015
/16
2016
/17
2017
/18
2018
/19
2019
/20
2020
/21
2021
/22
2022
/23
2023
/24
2024
/25
Financial Year
Co
nta
iner
s (0
00s)
Export Import
Actual Forecast
Questions for the session
• Have infrastructure constraints limited– exports?– imports?
• What should be done to ensure they don’t in the future?
• Are there other constraints that deserve attention?
