AUSTRALIAN MIGRATION STATISTICS, 1959-65(with special reference to Settler Gain and Loss)

Arcstrd. J . Slntieb., 8 (3), 1966, 138-164

AUSTRALIAN MIGRATION STATISTICS, 1959-651 (with special reference to Settler Gain and Loss)

CHARLES PEXCE Australian National University, Canberra

Introduction 1. Before 1959 Australia generally implemented the procedura

recommended for international migration statistics by the 1932 ILO Conference and the 1949 UN Population Commission. In particular she used ‘‘ nationality ” as a major variable, and also adopted the recommendation distinguishing “ temporary ” from “ permanent ” migrants according to their intention of staying in or away from Australia for less or more than a year.

2. By the mid 1950’s those trying to measure the nature and composition of Australia’s post-war migration had realized there were several major difficulties in the statistics. First, it was not easy to relate the annual statistics to the Censuses as the main characteristic common to both, nationality, was seriously affected by naturalization :

much more reliable characteristic, birthplace, existed in the Censuses but not in the annual statistics. Second, the concept of nationality lumped into the one general category of “ British ” not only important immigrant groupings such as the Maltese but also numerous native- born Australians moving in and out of the country. Third, the ‘‘ permanent. ” arrivals category, being based on intention of staying for more than a year, lumped together three quite different groupings : genuine new settlers ; Australian residents returning after business or training trips of more than twelve months ; long-term visitors arriving for business or educational visits of more than a year but who did not intend, or were not permitted by immigration regulations, to settle permanently. In 1958, therefore, the entry and exit cards were altered to include birthplace, precise citizenship, and sufficient detail to distinguish between settlers, visitors and residents. Table 1 gives the results of these new statistics for the calendar years 1959-63.

3. The table shows the importance in the former “ permanent ” category of residents and visitors moving temporarily for more than one year ; their total of 31,651 (18,633 +13,018) made up 24 per cent. of the 132,026 ‘‘ permanent ” arrivals. It also shows the importance of overseas-born persons amongst Australian residents, native-born

1 Manuscript received August 27, 1966.

AUSTRALIAN MIGRA!lTON BTATISTICS, 1959-65 339

residents contributing only 42-5 per cent. of the net loss in that category (8405119770). The deficit figures are revealing; them, consisting of settler departures plus the lose in the visitor 5nd resident, categories, show an annual deficit of 27,852, of which 19,197 were amongst persons born overseas.

TABLE I Awrtralian migration statistk : Annual average 1959-63

Settlers : Arrivals .. Departurw Net .. At&.-born,

Arrivals . . Departures Net .. Auat.4orn

Residents :

Viaitws : Arrivals .. Departurea Net .. Aust -born

Total : Arrivals .. Departures Net .. Awt.-bwn

Permanen$ Long-tern Short-term1 Total

100,375 7,489

92,886 652

- 6,558

-6,568 -4,342

- - - -

100,375 14,047 86,328

-3,690

- - - -

18,633 29,776

-11,143 - 4,847

13,018 10,948 2,070

71

31,651 40,724

-4,776 - 9,073

- - - -

86,045 88,114

784 - 2,069

97,768 100,43 1 -2,663

-249

183,813 188,545 -4,732

535

100,375 7,489

92,886 652

104,678 124,448 - 19,770 -8,405

110,786 111,379 - 593 - 178

315,839 243,316 72,523

-7,931

100,375 7,489

92,886 652

18,633 36,334

-17,701 -9,189

13,018 10,948 2,070

71

132,026 54,771 77,255

-8,466

De$cticdt3 : Total .. .. -27,852 Overseas-born - 19,197 Aust.-born . . -8,655

The former ‘. Temporary ” category. The former “ Permanent ” category. Settler Departures + Other Loss.

4. It is interesting to contrast this table with one for the two calendar years 1964-65.

5. Here again is visible the importance of residents and visitors in the old L L permanent arrival ” category j their total af 41,208 (24,950+16,258) comprising 22-6 per cent. of the 182,193 L L permanent ” arrivals. Overseas-born wrsons, however, contributed somewhat less to the net loss of A malian residents, native-born making up 54.3 per cent. The annual deficit in both Australian-born (14,521) and overseas-born (24,345) was considerably higher than for 1959-63. In general, Table I1 shows a period of much increased migration, settlers arriving being 40 per cent. higher, residents

140 CHBRLES PRICE

returning 61 par cent. higher, and visitors arriving some 60 per cent, higher, than in the earlier period. Total net gain was a little over 100,000 per &mumt the level suggested by the Vernon Committee $s €he maximum that Australia could receive with economic comfort.

6. As well as publishing these illuminating statistics, the Bureau of Census and Statistics makes available several useful cross-

TABLE I1 Auetralian migratitm 8kzt&9t~cs : Annual average 196415

s&8 : Arrivals .. Departures Net . . Auet.4-

Reeidents : Arrivds .. Departurw Net .. Aust.-born

V e 8 : Arrials .. Departures Net .. At&.- born

Total : Arrivals .. Departures Net .. AWt.-b-

Permanent Long-term Short-term' TotaE

140,985 11,315

129,670 954

- 6,682

-6,682 -5,331

- - - -

140,985 17,997

122,988 -4,377

- - - -

24,950 43,635

-18,685 -9,772

16,258 12,767 3,501

194

41,208 56,392

-15,184 -9,578

- - - -

145,949 147,470

516 - 1,521

160,603 164,787 -4,184 - 72

306,552 312,257 -5,705

444

140,985 11,315

129,670 954

170,899 197,787

-26,888 - 14,587

176,861 177,544

-683 122

488,745 386,646 102,099

-13,511

Permanent and

10?%pteTm=

140,985 11,315

129,670 954

24,950 60,317

-25,367 -15,103

16,258 12,757 3,501

194

182,193 74,389

107,804 -13,955

Dejicit' : Tot81 . . .. -38,886 Overseas-born -24,345 AWt.-born .. -14,541

The former " Temporary " category. 1 The former " Permanent " category.

Settler Departures+Other Loss.

tabulations. A cross-tabulation of (birthplace x age x sex x marital 'status) enables one to assess the age and marital status of the various immigrant streams; and also to estimate rough fertility ratios by relating children of a given birthplace to the relevant women of child-bearing age. Another useful cross-tabulation gives (birthplace x nationality x country of last or next permanent stay), ho enabling one to distinguish small but important groupings such as Egyptian-born Greeks, Chinese-born White Russians, United Kingdom- born South Africans. It also reveals the next destination of Australian residents departing permanently ; for instance, in the period 1962-4

AUSTRALIAN MIGRATION STATISTICS, 1959-65 141

less than three-quarters of Australian residents who had been born in the U.K., and were leaving Australia permanently, returned for permanent residence to the U.K.; about one-fifth went to New Zealand and the remainder to America, South Africa and elsewhere.

Settler Gain and Loss 7. This leads to one of the most interesting questions at present

exercising the minds of those concerned with migration, viz., how many settlers has Australia really been receiving, how many of these change their mind and leave, and how many of these repent and come back to Australia. In other words, what has been the extent of settler gain and loss? Important policy decisions may hinge on correct assessment here and careful estimation is necessary. (In this context we are concerned primarily with overseas-born persons. There are a few Australian-born persons in both settlers arriving and settlers departing but, as they are few and present certain anomalies, it is easier to confine the discussion from now onwards to the overseas-born.)

8. Though Australia’s present migration statistics are superior to those of most other countries it is difficult to answer these questions as they do not depend simply on the number of persons who enter or leave Australia saying there are settlers arriving or departing. They also depend on several things about which we have no exact information :

(1) The number of former settlers who do not identify themselves as such when leaving Australia but instead appear in the statistics as Residents or Visitors departing j

( 2 ) the number of former settlers who repent of their decision to leave and later come back to Australia ;

( 3 ) the proportion of these ‘‘ second-time settlers ” who on second entry call themselves Settlers or Residents (this can affect the statistics considerably) j

(4) the number of persons who arrive as Visitors and then stay permanently, either because they like Australia enough to stay or else because they are non-Europeans who arrive under temporary entry permits and later receive permission to stay indefinitely j

I f , as seems the case, each year sees more and more overseas-born residents (earIier settlers) making temporary trips abroad, and more and more visitors making temporary trips to Australia, the statistics will show a repeated deficit in the Resident categories and a repeated gain in the Visitor categories. If these do not cancel out there will be an “ unreal ” loss or gain of overseas-born persons.

9. Though we need much more accurate information before we can be sure of ( 2 ) , (3 ) , (4) and (5) there exist certain slender clues that enable us to produce rough approximations to them. With these we can then calculate (1) and so produce a Model of the whole settler movement, including settler loss. By using different approximations we can make different Models and see which best fit the published statistics and other material available. It is, incidentally,

( 5 ) the effects of “ statistical lag ”.

142 CHhaLEa PRICE

not often that statistics of international migration require more than very simple maaipulation-aommonsense assessment of basic data is normally the main reqnirementand the following calculations, though in no sense sophisticated, are more complex than usual. They are also more interesting, in the sense that the Models all confom to given input (arrival) and output (departure) totals but vary the assumption about what happens in between. The search for clues- internal and external-with which to assess the value of the different postulates of the in-between events becomes quite intriguing.

10. The procedure requires some equations and, for simplicity’s sake, some symbols:

c=converting to settler j d or dep.=departing j e=estimate ; gsgenuine j Z/t=long-term j n=non j p=in period j r=revised for working purposes; 8=as stated in published

statistics ; s/t=short-term ; x=proportion of de fact0 settler departures in

Visitor and Resident Departures j y =proportion of departing settlers who later come back (i.e. second-timers) ; z=proportion of second-timers identifying themselves as Settlers on second entry j

A=Arrival j D=Departure j Def.=Deficit j L=Loss j

B=Settler ; P=Total j V=Visitor. Aa=Lag ; N=Nett ; O=Other (i.e. non-settler) j R=Resident ;

N.B. -Where feasible, words starting with a capital letter refer to published statistics, while those with smaller letters refer to estimates j e.g. “ Settler Arrivals ” =the published category, while “ settler arrivals ’) refer to estimated settler arrivals, i.e. to “ Settler Arrivals ” less second-time settlers plus visitors converting to settlers.

Closed System 11. It is simplest to start by ignoring Lag and VAc (Visitor

Arrivals converting to settlers) and by treating the period 1959-65 aa if it were closed, i.e. a8 if aJl visitors and residents moving in and out for temporary visits, and all settlers arriving and departing, began and finished their circular movement within the period. This permits construction of basic formulae without distraction. (In these formulae ODs=Other Departures as stated in the published statistics (i.e. Resident and Visitor departures) ; BD8 =former settlers departing permanently, as stated in the published statistics j BAs=Settler Arrivals as stated in the published statistics.)

12. The formulae for relevant categories in tbe published statistics are, after considerable simplification :

ITD (Tom Departures)= (1 -x) OD8 + “?/z OD8 +yZ 8D8

non-settler departures second-timers as settlers (circular) (circular)

second-timers in Other Settler loss +q( l -2) OD8 +y(l-2) 8Da +z(l -y) OD8 +(1 -3) BD8

Arrivals (circular)


ONs (Other Net=Resident +Visitor Net)=

T A (Total Arrivals)=

With these we can construct the formulae for settler categories not

SAg (Settler, arrivals, genuine) =SAs -xyx ODs -yz SDs j SDg (Settler departures, genuine)=$ ODs +SDs j

Second-timers : y SDg=xy ODs+y SDs j

SLg (Settler loss) =x(l -y) ODs +(1 -y ) SDs =SDg-Second- timers.

XXg (Net settlers) =SAg-SLg=Y'N.

- [q~ ODs +$(l -y) ODs - y ( l -a) SDS]

HAS +(1 -m) ODs +q( l -~ ) ODs +y(l - x ) SDS.

shown in the published statistics:

Lag and Visitors converting to Settlers (La and VAc) 13. Having stated the basic formulae we can open the period

and attempt to allow for Lag and VAc. We may make a crude estimate of both these by inspecting the annual arrivals and departures in the Resident and Visitor categories of each main birthplace and deciding visually how much of the gain in the Visitor categories is due to Visitor Lag and how much to VAc j likewise how much of the loss in the Resident categories is due to Resident Lag and how much to de facto settlers. Here any increase in VAc must be counterbalanced by an increase in $ V D (former Settlers departing permanently as Visitors), which means that the higher the estimate of VAc the higher the estimate of settler loss. Likewise, the smaller the excess of Resident Lag over Visitor Lag (Le., the more we reduce minus Lag) the smaller the number of overseas-born persons abroad on temporary trips and, consequently, the larger the number of former settlers departing permanently.

14. A more sophisticated estimate of Lag and VAc allows for gain in American, Canadian and New Zealand visitors and for non- Europeans who enter Australia as temporary visitors and who later receive, or probably will receive, permanent status. But here we must examine long-term movement separately from short-term movement and immediately another factor enters in, via. category jumping. For example, a plus in ( V A Z/t) (long-term visitors arriving) and a plus in ( V D s / t ) (short-term visitors departing) may not mean one VAc in ( V A Z/t) and a de facto settler departure in ( V D s/ t ) , but simply that a visitor intending to stay two years changed his mind and departed in six months. The crude estimate avoids the predicament altogether by balancing long-term loss and gain in all Visitor and Resident categories against short-term gain and loss. The more sophisticated estimation can also avoid much of the difficulty. First, the problem does not arise with Resident categories as category jumping there automatically cancels itself out. Second, the estimation of VAc is based not on the observed pluses in arrivals from Europe-the largest intake but an even greater outflow-but on those in long-term visitor arrivals from America, Oceania and Asia and in short-term visitor arrivals from Oceania and Asia. There is some

144 CHARLES PRJCE

independent evidence for Asian VAc and we can make allowances for possible category jumping with America and Oceania.

15. My estimates of VAc for 1959-65 lie between 20,000 and 31,500. These then permit various estimates of Lag, the estimates varying with the assumptions made about Visitor duration of stay in Australia, and Resident duration of stay abroad, and about rates of increase in resident and visitor movement during the years before 1959 and after 1965. For example, assuming that VAc in long-term visitor arrivals ( V A Z/t) was 22,827, that the rate of increase for (VA Z/t) was the same in 1955-58 as 1959-65, and that average duration of stay in Australia was 3 . 1 years - staying 1-2 years,

2 2 3 staying 2-3 years, - staying 3-4 years and - staying 4-5 years 8 8 8 then the picture for long-term visitors is :

G TABLE I11

AWials 2_ 2, -. 3 - 1 Depnrturur

Increme No. -VAc lo in in in in Cohort Observed No. 8 8 8 8

depart 4-5 3-4 2-3 1-2 TOW Total

1955 6,838 1,200 5,638 1956 e+ 800 7,638 1.500 6,138 1957 o+ 900 8,638 1,800 6,738 1968 e+1.000 9.538 2,100 7,438

1969 e+1.082 10,620 2,600 8,120 1,410 1,534 2,527 930 6,401 6,004 1980 +1,834 12,454 2,800 9,654 1,534 1,684 2,789 1,015 7,022 10.116 1961 + 813 13.267 3.200 10,067 1,684 1.860 3,045 1,207 7,796 11,910 1962 + 322 13,589 3,300 10.289 1,860 2,030 3,620 1,258 8,768 12,887 1963 - 154 13,435 3,300 10,135 2,030 2,413 3,775 1,286 9,504 12,464 1964 +1,162 14,697 3,600 10,997 2,415 2,517 3,858 1,267 10,055 12.873 1965 +2.616 17.113 4,127 12,986 2,517 3,649 5,801 1,376 11,342 12,222

+LO82 96,076 22,827 72,248 60,888 78,465 av.

16. With a seven-year period (1959-65) and departures spread

V A (visitors arriving) 59-65 over four years the relevant statistics are:

-VA 59-65 dep. 60-69=VAc 59-65 i.e. 95,075 -72,248 =22,827

V D (visitors departing) 59-65 -VA 55-64 dep. 59-65=mVD (de facto settler

departures) 59-65 i.e. 78,465 -60,888 =17,577

VLA (visitor lag) =72,248 -60,888 =11,360.

Similar tables can be constructed using different time intervals These vary Lag somewhat though and different rates of increase.

not greatly; e.g. a spread of five years in duration of stay

in 1-2 years, 3 in 2-3 years, in 3-4 years, in 4-5 years, 8 8 8

in 5-6 years raises Lag by a little over 1,000. Tables for short- 8 )


term visitors, long-term residents and short-term residents are calculated in the same way.

17. In all these Lag calculations it is better to start with the category least distorted by de facto settlers and work through to the more distorted category. The long- term visitor calculation above started from Visitor Arrivals, which contains few if any settlers, and worked through to Vsiitor Departures, which may contain numerous settlers. Likewise calculations of Resident Lag start better with Resident Arrivals (RA), which is distorted by second-timers but usually not as much as RD is distorted by de facto settlers departing. In this case, however, we must work backwards; i.e. take RA of 1959, say, and with the intervals chosen work out how many of these would have departed how many years earlier to come back in 1959. Working in this way, we reach a situation where Resident Lag- which is negative-more or less balances Visitor Lag-which is positive-giving a Net Lag of roughly zero; in practice it ranges a few thousand either side of zero according to the assumptions concerning VAc and duration of stay.

Negative Lag represents a surplus of residents who are temporarily abroad and will later return ; i.e. they are in OD (Other Departures) but not yet in OA (Other Arrivals), and if left in OD calculations will inflate settler loss. Conversely, positive Lag represents a surplus of visitors who are temporarily in Australia and will later depart ; i.e. they are in OA but not yet in OD, and if not added to OD will inflate visitor gain and settler loss. The first modification then is to subtract negative Lag from ODs, or add positive Lag to ODs, i.e. add Net Lag. Similarly VAc are visitors who on entry intended to depart but did not do so. A simple way to handle them is to calculate what x would have been had they departed; i.e. add them to ODs. The revised figure for 01) used as the working figure in the main calculations (ODr) then is :

ODr=ODs+La+VAc. 19. The other formulae listed in paragraph 12 above then become : !L'D Departures) = (1 -2) ODr +xyz ODr +yz BDs +

18. Now Lag and VAc can go into the formulae.

(Total m ~ ( 1 -x)ODr + y (1 -x)BDs +x(l- y )ODr + (1 - y )BDs - La-VAc=ODr+BDs-La-VAc.

FA (Total Arrivals) =8As fq(1--x)ODr+y(l-z)BDs +(I-x)ODr. ONr (Other Net) = - [xyz O D r +x(l - y ) ODr - y ( l -2) ~ D s ] =

BAg (Settler Arrivals, genuine) =BAS - q x ODr -yx BDs $- VAc. BDg (Settler Departures, genuine) =x ODr +BDs. Becod-Fimers=xy ODr + y 8Ds=y XDg. BLg (Settler Loss)=x(l - y ) ODr +(1 - y ) BDs=BDg-Becond-

BNg (Settler Net) =BAg -BLg=FN -La.

ONs -La - VAc.

timers.

The Models Here it is simplest to

assume values for y and x and calculate x from ONr, or else assume values for x and y or x and x and calculate x or y from TA. The

20. The next step is to estimate x , y and z.

146 C H A R L E B PRICE

following models result from applying different values of s, y, a, La, VAc and Category Jumping to the published statistics of 1959-65, viz. :

Overseaa-born Arrivals and Departures-1969-65

TOTAL SETTLERS’ OTHER .. . .

Residents, permanent Residents, long-term . . Residents, sht- term .. Visilws, short-term . . visitors, lung-tern . .

1,882,135 778,164

1,103,97 1

55,286 245,979 95,075 707,631

-

Departures

1,248,640 59,561

1,189,079 13,783 104,589 264,319 78,465 727,923

Net

633,495 718,602 -85,108 -13,783 -49,303 - 18,340

-20,292 16,610

DEFICIT ( O A S ~ D S - S D ~ = 1,103,971-1,189,079-69,561 =- 144,669

Assessment 22. The first three Models give Lag, VAc and category jumping

as Nil. This may be interpreted as treating the period as closed for purposes of isolating the effects of changes in a, y and a. Thus Models I and I1 show that if z rises m falls, as does SDg (settler departures) and SLg (settler loss) ; conversely, Model I11 shows that when y rises m also rises, taking SDg, not SLg, up with it. But the Models may also be interpreted as assuming that negazive Lag and category jumping are sufficiently high to counteract VAc ; e.g. that a VAc of 20,000 or more is being counterbalanced by, say, category jumping of 10,000 and Lag of -10,000 ; which, on the evidence? is much too high. In this sense these three Models act as limits shomng thapt, even when negative Lag and category jumping are given extreme values and settler departure and loss correspondingly reduced, settler departure is still well above the 59,561 published figure for persons departing permanently who identify themselves as former settlers.

23. The next three Models show the other extreme, with VAc at its probable maximum of 31,500 and, as a corollary, Lag at $1,863 or so. This forces up m, SDg and SLg but also raises the number of settler arrivals to totals nearer that of the 778,164 given in the published statistics. (This HA8 figure of 778,164 does not coincide with the SAg estimates, as the latter exclude second-timers returning as (( settlers ’’ and include VAc.)

24. The last five Models give more realistic estimates of VAc and category jumping (22,827 and 7,445) and the Lag figure of -4 associated with them when durations of residence are taken as in paragraph 15. (These durations, though referring to genuine visitors and residents in or out of Australia on long-term trips, match fairly well with the Bureau’s statistics of duration of residence of former settlers departing permanently ; durations of visitors and residents on short-term trips we based on the Bureau’s published figures of short-term visitors (duration of residence in Australia). In short,

21.

Cat

egor

g

VA

e ..

.. ..

L

.4

..

..

Cat

. J

..

..

x ..

..

2

.. ..

y ..

..

5. SN

g (S

ettle

r ga

in)

6. S

Ag/

SAs (778,164)

(1-4) =

TN

-La

Publ

ishe

d Sl

alis

tics

778.164

100.0

59,561

7.7 -

144,669

18.6

633,495

81.4

100.0

TA

BL

E IV

iiO

DE

LS

I I1

I11

IV

V

VI

VII

V

III

IX

X

XI

0 0

0

' 31,500

31,500

31,500

22,827

22,827

22,827

22,827

22,827

0 0

0 +1,863

+1,863

+1,863

-4

-4

-4

-4

-4

0 0

0

0

0

0

7,445

7,445

7,445

7,445

1,445

0,10199

0.08215

0.12372

0.11932

0.109578

0.15933

0.08906

0.11032

0,181195 0.14829

0.089059

0.4

0.4

0.6

0.33

0.4

0.6

0.2

0.33

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.5

0.8

0.5

0.6

0.8

0.5

1.0

0.6

0.33

0.4

1.0

741,996

1.00

.0

180,835

24.3

72,334

9.7

108,501

14.6

633,495

85.4

95.4

727,845

100.0

157,249

21.6

62,899

8.6

94,350

13.0

633,495

87.0

93.5

716,163

100.0

206,674

28.8

124,006

17.3

82,668

11.5

6 3 3,4 9 5

88.4

92.0

768,580

100.0

205,423

26.7

68,475

8.9

136,948

17.8

631,632

82.1

82-2

747,740

100.0

193,513

25.9

77,405

10.4

116,108

15.5

631,632

84.5

96.1

733,464

100.0

254,331

34.7

152,590

20.8

101,732

13.9

631,632

86.1

94.2

767,494

100.0

167,493

21.8

33,495

4.4

133,995

17.4

633,499

82.6

98.6

745,160

100.0

279,152

37.46

167,491

22.48

110,661

15.0

0 3 3,4 9 9

85.0

95.8

753,136

100.0

239,274

31.8

119.637

15.9

119,637

15.9

633,499

84.1

96.8

733,994

100.0

167,492

22.8

66,997

9.1

100,495

13.7

633,499

86.4

94.3

148 UEARLES PRICE

though there is no guarantee that these are the best estimates of VAc, category jumping and Lag they match well with external evidence on duration of stay.

On these grounds one would hope to find one of these five Models matching well with evidence on other points, so providing a reliable picture of settler movement. It could be, however that a particular combination of q.y and x in one of the first six Models produces an even better fit with this other evidence.

The cross-tabulation of (birthplace x sex x age) (see paragraph 6 above) shows that the loss of Australian-born females aged 15-44 was accompanied by a much larger than expected loss of Australian-born children (0-14), while the loss of overseas-born women aged 15-44 was accompanied by a much lower than expected loss of overseas-born children. Even allowing for differences in family size between Australian and overseas-born it is clear that many overseas-born women leaving permanently were taking Australian-born children with them. The same cross-tabulation shows Australian-born children returning to Australia as “ settlers ”, and it is safe to assume that these were coming back with their parents who were either former long-term visitors or, more likely, repenting settler departures. The figures for the years available suggest that about 14 per cent. of the estimated loss of Australian-born children of former settler

1 families come back as “ settlers” (i.e. as yx flDg), i.e. yx=-. If 7 we presume that mobility of families is less than that of single persons

1 1 yx for all settler departures might be - or even - 5 4’

26. I f yx is a reliable check, y cannot be raised too far before it becomes necessary to lower x ; e.g. if we wish to reduce settler loss by raising x , as in Models 11, V and XI, or by raising y, as in Models I11 and VI, we should change y or x to bring yx back to a value between 12 per cent. and 25 per cent. ; in which case settler loss would at once go up again. If the argument holds, then these Models are all defective; i.e. their yz values reach 30 per cent. or more and in Model X I reaches 40 per cent. In this sense Model VII is more

25. The first of these other clues is the relationship yx.

I satisfactory as y falls to - when z rises to 1 .0 ;

higher than in the other Models just mentioned.

27. The next check is external evidence on y ; i.e. on the proportion of departing settlers who repent and return. R. T. Appleyard’s two studies (see references), together with enquiries made at Australia House by repentant departures, suggest that 50 per cent. of settlers returning to the U.K. wish to come back. There is less evidence about how many manage to come back, and no evidence about those U.K.-born settlers who go on to New Zealand or elsewhere (paragraph 6 ) ; it is most unlikely that as many as 50 per cent. of these wish to return to Australia. It seems safest, therefore, to assume that no more than 40 per cent. of U.K.-born departures have come back. There is even less evidence about

in this case flLg is 5


continental Europeans. Rumour has it that departing Greeks all come back-and if this means about three-quarters it may well be so. With Dutch and German settlers the position seems quite otherwise : since 1962 loss of Dutch and German-born persons has fluctuated from 50 per cent. to more thaa 100 per cent. of settler arrivals, which makes a high proportion of second-timers a virtual impossibility ; it is very likely as low as 15 per cent. About other peoples we know even less.

28. On balance, then, the somewhat meagre external evidence suggests that between 30 per cent. and 40 per cent. of departing settlers have come back j certainly 50 per cent. seems an upper limit. In other words, Models showing a y value of 0 - 3 to 0 . 4 conform better with the available evidence than those with y values of more than 0 . 5 or less than 0.3. This again militates against Models 111, VI and IX, and also against Model VII.

29. The third check lies in the statistics themselves. Paragraph 15 showed how subtraction of VAo from long-term visitors arriving affected both Lag and (zVD Z/t) (de facto settlers departing as Visitors). Likewise second-time settlers coming back as Residents (y(1-x) 8Dg) should be deducted from Residents arriving back after long trips abroad (RA Z/t) before (RA Z/t) is related to (RD Z/t). (We assume here most second-timers will stay more than a year overseas before finally making up their minds, or saving enough, to get back to Australia, and therefore are mainly in (RA Zit) rather than (RA s / t ) . ) Without an estimate of (y(1-z) SDg) we couId make no sensible allowance. The Models, however, give estimates of y(1-x) XDg and these can be checked for consistency with the other statistics.

30. The first point is the effect (y(1-x) BDg) has on (RA Z/t), the 1959-65 total for which. was 55,286. Obviously a Model giving a (y(1-x) XDg) value of more than 55,286 rules itself straight out of order as there would be too few residents returning from long-term visits to cover second-time settlers returning as residents, let alone genuine residents returning from long trips. This virtually eliminates Models 111, VI, I X and X as (y(1-x) 8Dg) exceeds 60,000 in all of them.

31. The second point is that when second-timers coming back as residents (y(1-x) BDg) are deducted from residents arriving from long-term trips abroad (BA Z/t) we can relate the revised (RA Z/t) figure to (RD Z/t), so obtaining a revised estimate of de facto settlers departing in this category. We add this to the estimated de facto settler totals in residents departing short-time, visitors departing long-term and visitors departing short-term, and then, after deducting category jumpers, add this new total to former settlers and other residents departing permanently to produce a revised total for genuine settler departures (SDg). This should then come close to the 8Dg value of the Model. On this test Model VIII holds up best, being only 438 out, Models VII and XI are 7,445 out, Model IV is 9,611 out. The remainder are much further out, and rule themselves out on this ground alone.

32. The various tests outlined in paragraphs 21-31 show that some Models have eliminated themselves completely while others have certain defects. Those with only two defects are Models IV and XI,

150 CHARLES PRICE

giving settler departure estimates (SDg) 205,423 and 167,492, and settler loss estimates (SJg) 136,949 and 100,495. In the middle is the only Model with a completely clean sheet-Model VIII-showing an SDg of 193,258 and an SLg of 128,839. On the evidence presented it appears that this Model gives the nearest approximation to the real situation and that settler movement during the years 1959-65 was of the order suggested by it.

Settlers Departing

33. When using Model VIII as a+guide to settlers departing it is important correctly to interpret the departure concept. Models I, I1 and I11 are based on a closed system, so enabling us to take the proportion of settlers departing/settlers arriving (SDglSAg) as a guide to the proportion of settlers arriving that subsequently depart. With the other Models this proportion means something different, as they assume an open system. In their case the (SDglSAg) proportion refers not to the proportion of XAg who subsequently depart but to the relationship between those SAg who arrived during 1959-65 (the relevant departures of which have not yet all gone) and those SDg who left during 1959-65 (some of whom arrived before 1959). To get a rough estimate of SAg who later depart we can do a crude cohort analysis ; i.e. estimate BAg for the years before 1959, attribute certain durations of residence in Australia and see how the results compare with the Model SDg. Assuming the proportion of settler arrivalsltotal arrivals for the years 1955-58 was much the same as for 1959-65, and adjusting duration of residence from the durations revealed by the Bureau’s cross-tabulation of former settlers departing (here taken as: 15 per cent. leave in 0-1 year, 15 per cent. in 1-2, 30 per cent. in 2-3, 20 per cent. in 3-4, 20 per cent. in 4-5) it seems that 25.35 per cent. is too low and that 28.4 per cent. is a better estimate of the proportion of settlers who subsequently depart.

Ethnic Differences

34. So far the discussion has treated all overseas-born persons together, making no attempt to distinguish between the various immigrant groupings. In practice the proportions of departures differ considerably, as is revealed by statistics of Total Deficits. Contrasting Deficits has problems as deficits ignore differences in Lag and relate persons arriving in a given year to persons departing in that year, irrespective of how many years earlier the latter arrived. The detailed statistics indicate, however, that Lag differences are slight for major areas of origin, while cohort analysis from the Bureau’s figures of former settlers’ duration of residence show much the same order of difference as the Deficit figures. In short, though somewhat rough and ready, Total Deficit is an adequate guide to the differences between the main immigrant streams ; using it certainly saves the trouble of constructing and testing Models for each birthplace grouping, an increasingly speculative procedure as totals become smaller and estimation of VAc, Lag, Category jumping, m, y and 2 more difficult.

35. First, the table reveals the difficulty of saying much about settlers from New Zealand, Canada and the U.S.A. : the gain from


visitors converting to settlers, and to some extent from visitor lag, is so great that it reduces the deficit well below SDs. Second, the table shows marked discrepancies between settler departures as revealed by the T. Def. and SDs columns. The SDs statistics

TABLE V Overseas-Born 1959-65

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Birthplace (Settlers (Settle,= (Total SDsfSAs SDqSAs T.DeflSAs

Arriving Departlng Deflcit % x %

SA8 SDs T.Dej.

as stated) a8 stated) T N - S A s

Overseas-bm U . K . and Eire. Netherlands Germany .. Italy Greece and Egypt Malta New Zealand Canada .. U.S.A. . .

- .. .. . . .. .. .. .. .. . . ..

778,164 337,704 29,211 36,791 98.193 84,863 22,785 10,318 4,236 8,331

-50,561 -33,353 -4,243 -4,020 - 1,484

-689 --" -344

-3,710 - 731 --1,844

-144,669 41.2 7.7 18.6 -65,881 48.4 9.9 20.4 -14,703 28.9 14.5 50.3 -17.573 22.9 10.9 47.8

1.5 27.2 0.8 s.i 1.5 11.4

5.6 10.1 13.3

-26;673 -6,841 -2,589 +4,637 -186 + 58

(columns 3 and 6) suggest that relatively far fewer Italian settlers left than U.K. settlers (1.5 per cent. v. 9.9 per cent.), whereas the Deficit columns (4 and 7 ) suggest the reverse (27 -2 per cent. v. 20 a 4 per cent.). Again, the BDs statistics show that relatively almost as many U.K. settlers left as Dutch (9-9 per cent. v. 14.5 per cent.), whereas Total Deficits suggest that less than half as many left (20.4 per cent. v. 50.3 per cent.). The root of the matter is that, even allowing for Lag differences, some groups contain relatively more settlers who leave without identifying themselves as such. Column 5 suggests that whereas nearly half the total of departing U.K.-born settlers, and a quarter or so of departing Dutch and German-born settlers, declared themselves to be former settlers departing permanently, only one-tenth of Greeks and one-twentieth of Italians did so. It is clear, therefore, that the Deficit column is a much better guide to settler departures than the SDs column. This is true not only in terms of group differences but in terms of absolute numbers; the T. Def. total of 144,669 is much closer to Model VIII's estimated 128,839 settler loss than is the 59,561 SDs figure.

Future Trends in Departures

36. The next matter is projecting departures into the future, a necessary procedure in view of current discussion on the increased number of settlers recently leaving Australia, the possible reasons for it, and likely trends. A crude method is to calculate the annual deficits, 1959-65, by the short formula T. Def.=Total Net - Settlers Arriving (TN-SAs) and project their increase into 1966 and 1967. A better method takes account of the 1964-65 increase in settler arrivals (Tables I and 11), the interval of time before such increase reflects itself in settler departures, and the possible effects of the large increase of U.K.-born settler arrivals with their slightly higher than average departure rate (see Table V, column 7 ; U.K. and Eire-born settlers arriving arose from 38,381 per annum in 1959-63 to 72,898 in 1964-65, or from 38.5 per cent. to 52.1 per cent. of Settlers Arriving). With

152 CHBEtLES PRICE

the Model VIII assumptions that genuine settler arrivals are 98 per cent. of Settler Arrivals so stated and that 28-4 per cent. of these later depart (paragraph 33), and with modifications for the increased number of U.K.-born arrivals in 1964-65 and with the durations of residence of paragraph 33, projected settler departures (SDg) are 36,000 for 1966 and 40,000 for 1967. Total Deficits axe not quite so high, 30,000 for 1966, and 33,000 for 1967. I f the existing trend continues whereby an increasing proportion of Total Deficit declared itself openly as former settlers (39 per cent. in 1959-63 and 55 per cent. in 1965), the number of Settler Departures so stated will be relatively high, perhaps 16,500 in 1966 and 17,500 in 1967.

37. Such totals will not necessarily denote worsening of economic conditions in Australia compared with those in other countries, or growing immigrant dislike of conscription for Vietnam ; but rather the application of the estimated trends of 1959-65 to a larger and more British pool of new settlers. I f departures reach higher levels than this we will have to re-examine the assumptions of Model VIII and consider whether conditions are changing to make Australia less attractive, or other countries more attractive, to our immigrant families. Or it may be that the larger intake of new settlers since 1963 has contained a greater proportion of (( trippers ”, or persons on a, ‘( two-year working holiday ”, and that there may be a higher departure rate as a result.

Seriousness of the Problem 38. According to Model VIII settler departure and loss during

1959-65 was substantial : 193,258 settlers departed (27,600 a, year) and 128,839 of these did not come back (18,400 a year). In terms of settler-intake, however, this was only 17 per cent. Nor is the loss as great as a t other times and in other places. In the years 1901-47 over one-third of Southern European immigrants to Australia departed never to return, while the post-war loss of countries such as Canada, seems to be well over 16 per cent. This is partly due to the relatively low level of unemployment in post-war Australia and to the absence of that severe seasonal unemployment that prevails in Canada. On the other hand it is cheaper to leave North America than Australia- in this sense we expect a higher departure rate from the former continent. Moreover, with a large assisted immigration programme Australia has more public money invested in immigration and, consequently, more at stake when settlers leave and do not return. Money spent on alleviating settler ‘( sore-spots ” may thus save public expenditure, as well as make Australia more attractive to potential immigrants of the future.

Conclusion 39. The main purpose of this article has been to show that careful

analysis of current Australian migration statistics takes us quite a long way towards unravelling the intricacies of settler movement and assessing the extent of settler loss. We cannot, because of all the estimation involved, press too heavily on any one Model or assert dogmatically that settler arrivals, departures and loss were exactly this figure or that. Nevertheless, the Models enable us to see the

AUBTRALIAN MIGRATION STATISTICS, 1959-65 153

interrelationship of the various settler movements and to concentrate on the more likely rather than the less likely patterns. Moreover, the best-fitting Models, and the analysis of differences between various birthplace groupings, enable us to project into the future, not as definite forecasts of what will happen but as reasonably firm statements about what will happen if recent trends continue. This enables us to look at future statistics more intelligently and assess with greater confidence whether and in what ways the migrant situation is changing.

References Appleyard, R. T. (1962). ‘‘ The return movement of U.K. migrants from Australia.”

Pop. S t d . , XV (3), 214-25, March ; “ Determinants of return migration. . . ”. Economic Record, 38 (83), 352-68, September.

Price, C. A. (1965) : The Tptal Deficits for 1959-63, in somewhet modifled form, appear in Table 2 of Some problems of international migration statistics : an Australian case-study ”. Pop. Stud., XIX (1). 17-27, July.

Documents

AUSTRALIAN MIGRATION STATISTICS, 1959-65(with special reference to Settler Gain and Loss)