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8/11/2019 Attracting Retailers to your Town Centre, Keith Hargest
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8/11/2019 Attracting Retailers to your Town Centre, Keith Hargest
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Hargest & Wallace Planning Ltd
Introduction
Background How has retailing been changing?
What are the drivers of change?
How is this affecting smaller town centres?
What can we do about it?
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How has retailing been changing?
No. of Shops in Scotland
0
5000
10000
15000
2000025000
30000
35000
1976 1990 1996 2000
No. of Shops in
Scotland
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Changing numbers of shops
1970s 1990 steady numbers of shops
Decline since 1990s
50 specialist food shops close each week in the
UK (Fed of Small Businesses)
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Changes in Scottish Retail
No. of Shops - Scotland
25,000
25,200
25,400
25,600
25,800
26,00026,200
26,400
26,600
26,800
27,000
Year 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
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Changes in Scottish Retail
Scotland - Retail Turnover m
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Year 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
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Changes in Scottish Retail
Scotland - Retail EmploymentEmployees
200,000
210,000
220,000
230,000240,000
250,000
260,000
270,000
Year 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
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Aberdeenshire
Aberdeenshire - Retail Units
1,000
1,050
1,100
1,150
1,200
1,250
1,300
Year 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
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Aberdeenshire
Aberdeenshire - Retail etc Employment
('000s)
12.0
12.5
13.0
13.514.0
14.5
15.0
Year 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
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Hargest & Wallace Planning Ltd
AberdeenshireRetail Turnover
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
million
Aberdeen City
Aberdeenshire
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Shops have got bigger
Average Sales Area Per Store
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
DIY Grocers Grocers
(ex Tesco)
Clothing Electrical
Sq
Feet
1998
2005
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Other Changes
Super regional centres: Braehead; Edinburgh
bypass Accelerated growth in available expenditure:
Convenience 1% pa over past decade (flat
previously) Comparison 4.2% pa over past decade (
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Other Changes
Increase in small store formats most marked in
grocery sector M&S; Tesco express; Co-opbuying Alldays
Increased globalisation of ownership and supply
No major retail chains have HQ in Scotland
Diversification of products and services by
grocers
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Market Concentration
Grocery Sector
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
2000 2005
Largest
Top 5
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Market Concentration
Clothing Sector
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%30%
35%
40%
45%
2000 2005
Largest
Top 5
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Market Concentration
Electricals Sector
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
2000 2005
Largest
Top 5
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Market Concentration
DIY Sector
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%60%
70%
80%
90%
2000 2005
Largest
Top 5
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Geographical changes
Concentration in largest centres: in 1996 retailers need
only 200 branches to tap three quarters of national
durable sales so smaller centres increasingly rely on
independent retailers and other attractions
This would include only about 15 centres in Scotland
i.e. smallest would be ca. size of Dunfermline
Rents in Scotland: % of 25-30th of top 5 centres
2001 22% 2006 20%
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And more besides
Growth of internet retailing:
48bn in 2007, 78bn in 2010??? (IMRG) PKMG: one fifth of all new expenditure is directed on
line
Retailers controlling the supply chain ..
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0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
1975 1985 1995 2003
Motoring Costs
Scotland GDP
Drivers of Change: Cost of Travel
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Other Drivers of Change
Rising affluence and increased disposable
income Globalisation impact on structure of industry
Demands for more attractive shopping
destinations amenity and safety
Responses to public policy changes
Social changes competition of consumerstime and perceived value of time
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How does this affect small town centres?
Secondary locations
Lower growth in floorspace,
Lower growth/decline in turnover
Poor rental and yield performance
Clone town Britain
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The future for small town centres?
Future changes? Continued growth of primary
locations Variation in the fortunes of
small centres changes incatchment, level of
competition and presence orabsence of USPs
Investment in new formats bymultiples often in new
locations Development of specialist
retail locations leisure,travel, tourism etc
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Implications for towns in the North East
Aberdeen City Centre reinforce dominance
Strength of Aberdeen City retail parks
Decline in traditional suburban and many smaller towncentres and rural areas
Ongoing interest by some retailers esp by grocers
e.g.: Banchory; Turriff; Stonehaven etc Loss of trade to the internet
Some retail warehousing demand Fraserburgh;
Peterhead; poss for Inverurie The role of independent traders?
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Responses What can we do about it?
Go with the flow or fight? Shoppers are voting
with their feet (cars) yet town centres are keyand valued by the community
Meeting operator requirements
Cannot change geography cf Inverurie v Peterhead What do multiple operators want?
Units of the right size: 200 sq m typical minimum
Easy configuration
Good profile
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Responses
Meeting requirements:
Making suitable sites available
CPO
Underwriting development costs
Active identification of markets
What is the role of the public sector partnerships with
developers/operators
Creating USPs
Every town is unique but..
Heritage; tourism; environmental
quality; population growth
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Town Centre Strategies
How to make them work?
Scope: infrastructure; physical envt;
creating capacity for change; economicstructure; business support; TCHCs
Success:
stakeholder engagement; strong public sector leadership;
sustained resourcing
Delivery vehicle for implementation
Using public sector assets
Using CPO
Communication of results
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Other Tools
Use Planning Controls
consistently: carrot & stick
Supporting town centre
businesses marketing;
business skills
Managing decline
Business Improvement
Districts