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Atmospheric and Hydrological Modeling. Shinjiro KANAE RIHN, Kyoto, Japan Univ of Tokyo, Japan. (Kanae: ……impact of land on seasonal-p ) C. Tam: Seasonal prediction T. Satomura, J. Chan: Regional model, diurnal - ISO K. Tanaka: Land surface model - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Atmospheric and Hydrological ModelingShinjiro KANAERIHN, Kyoto, JapanUniv of Tokyo, Japan
(Kanae: ……impact of land on seasonal-p )C. Tam: Seasonal predictionT. Satomura, J. Chan: Regional model, diurnal - ISOK. Tanaka: Land surface modelHansa, V.: Hydrological model ShahNewaz: Hydrological model (for very large river)B. Wang: Ocean - atmos
2
Impact of land wetness on predictability of seasonal rainfall
Kanae et al. (2006, J. Climate)
SST
“Realistic” soil moisture and snow (Hirabayashi et al., 2005, JGR)
(1951-98)AGCMhindcast
“Observed” atmospheric forcing (1901-2000)
(5 ensembles)
3Correlation between JJAobservation and simulation(=“predictability”)
Potential Predictability
calculated from
σforced2/ σtotal
2
(with a perfect model assumption)(= similarity within an ensemble)
<(upper limit)
“Inconsistency”
Simply implementing land information intocurrent AGCMs may not give us a promise!!
4Today’s Earth
http://hydro.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/Earth
降水量 (Lv1)
河川流量 (Lv4)
降水同位体比 (Lv3)
水蒸気起源(Lv4)
“Everyday” simulation is very nice to model improvement.
Atmospheric and Hydrological Modeling
(Kanae: ……impact of land on seasonal-p )C. Tam: Seasonal predictionT. Satomura, J. Chan: Regional model, diurnal - ISOK. Tanaka: Land surface modelHansa, V.: Hydrological model ShahNewaz: Hydrological model (for very large river)B. Wang: Ocean - atmos
6Expected discussion focuses
• What are the bottlenecks?What are the key-targets?
• Coordination between observations (in AMY) and model studies.
• Collaboration between atmospheric modeling, ocean modeling, and land hydro modeling.
• Which Institutes will be “Model-Centers”?
• …..
8Correlation between sensible and latent heat fluxes (1951-1998, interannual correlation, JJA mean, LAND)
“Inconsistency” Positive correlation
“Semi-arid” Negative correlation