ATHENS UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS AND LOGISTICS LABORATORY (TRANSLOG) © Prof. K. Zografos STEPs STEPs Scenarios for the

ATHENS UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS AND LOGISTICS LABORATORY (TRANSLOG)

© Prof. K. Zografos© Prof. K. Zografos

STEPsSTEPsScenarios for the Transport Scenarios for the Transport System and Energy Supply System and Energy Supply

and their Potential Effectsand their Potential Effects Framework Programme 6, Call 1AFramework Programme 6, Call 1AThematic Priority 1.6.2, Area 3.1.2, Task 1.10Thematic Priority 1.6.2, Area 3.1.2, Task 1.10Instrument: Co-ordination Action + Additional ResearchInstrument: Co-ordination Action + Additional Research

WP2: Transportation trends and energy WP2: Transportation trends and energy implicationsimplications

Prof. Konstantinos G. ZografosProf. Konstantinos G. ZografosAthens University of Economics and BusinessAthens University of Economics and Business

TRANsportation Systems and Logistics Laboratory TRANsportation Systems and Logistics Laboratory (TRANSLOG)(TRANSLOG)

e-mail: [email protected]: [email protected]

STEPs meeting, Leuven, 18/05/2006STEPs meeting, Leuven, 18/05/2006


© Prof. K. Zografos

CONTENTS OF PRESENTATION

- Objectives

- Analysis framework

- Freight transport energy use

- Passenger transport energy use

- Concluding remarks



OBJECTIVES OF PRESENTATION

- To identify the relationship between freight/passenger transport and energy, taking into account the evolution of the political, socio-economic and technological environment.

- To identify indicators measuring the impacts of the identified trends on freight and passenger transport energy use.



ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK

SCM / LOGISTICS

TRENDS

SPATIALDEVELOPMENT

TRENDS

MOBILITYTRENDS

FREIGHTTRANSPORTUTILIZATION

ENERGYEFFICIENCY

PASSENGERTRANSPORTUTILIZATION

POLITICALDRIVERS

SOCIO-ECONOMICDRIVERS

TECHNOLOGYDRIVERS

ENERGYSUPPLY

ENERGY AVAILABILITY

ENERGYUSE



Type of movement /geographical scale

Transport mode

Type of system

Freight transportPassenger transport

ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK



DETERMINANTS AND INDICATORS OF FREIGHT TRANSPORT ENERGY USE

ECONOMICINDUSTRIAL

OUTPUT(tonnes

produced)

HANDLINGFACTOR

TONNESLIFTED

FREQUENCY

LENGTH OFHAUL

LOADFACTOR

EMPTY RUNS

SCMTRENDS

PESTDRIVERS

MODAL SPLITTONNES BY

MODE OFTRANSPORT

TON-KMS

FUELCONSUMPTI

ON

VEHICLE-KMS

VEHICLETECHNOLOGI

ES

ENERGYSUPPLY

ENERGYAVAILABILITY

ENERGYEFFICIENCY

SPATIALDEVELOPMENT AND

LAND USE PATTERNS



SCM TrendsDrivers

SCP SCIWGS

DVDP OS DD NDD RL

DBBTS

Fiscal policy √ √

Transport policy √ √ √

Environmental policy √

Energy policy √

Land use policy √ √

Regional development policy

√ √

Globalization √ √ √ √ √

Level of economic activity / income

√ √ √ √

E-commerce √ √

Communication and information technologies

√

SCP: Spatial Concentration of Production, SCI: Spatial Concentration of Inventory, WGSD: Wider Geographical Sourcing and Distribution, VDP: Vertical Disintegration of Production, OS: Outsourcing, DD: Direct Deliveries, ND: Nominated Day Deliveries, RL: Reverse Logistics, DBBTS: Development of Break-Bulk/Transhipment Systems

PEST DRIVERS VS. SCM TRENDS FOR FREIGHT TRANSPORT



Effects on Freight Transport

SCM Trends

Number of trips

Length of trips

Speed of trips

Frequency of trips

Vehicle utilizatio

n

Spatial Concentration of Production √ √ √

Spatial Concentration of Inventory √ √ √

Wider Geographical Sourcing and Distribution √ √ √ √ √

Vertical Disintegration of Production √ √ √

Outsourcing √ √

Direct Deliveries √ √ √ √ √

Nominated Day Deliveries √ √ √ √ √

Reverse Logistics √ √ √

Development of Break-Bulk/Transhipment Systems √ √ √

SCM TRENDS VS. EFFECTS ON FREIGHT TRANSPORT UTILIZATION



BROADER PEST ENVIRONMENT

Fiscal policy (taxation andincentives)

Transport policy(deregulation)

Environmental policy

Energy policy

Land use policy

Regional developmentpolicy

Globalization

Level of economic activity(GDP)

Marker penetration ofalternative vehicle

technologies

Marker barriers forintroducing alternativevehicle technologies

E-commerce

Fleet composition

Energy efficiency (averagefuel consumption)

Advancement of vehicletechnologies

Communicationtechnologies

Fuel supply infrastructure

SUPPLY CHAIN ORGANIZATIONTRENDS

Spatial concentration ofinventory

Spatial concentration ofproduction

Wider geographicalsourcing and distribution

Vertical disintegration ofproduction

Outsourcing

Direct deliveries

Nominated day deliveries

Reverse logistics

Development of break-bulk/transhipment systems

EFFECTS ON FREIGHTTRANSPORT SYSTEM

UTILIZATION

Number of trips

Length of trips

Speed of trips

Frequency of trips

Vehicle utilization

INDICATORS INFLUENCINGENERGY USE IN FREIGHT

TRANSPORT

Freight transport demand(ton-km/capita, veh-km/

capita)

Freight transport vehicleconsumption

Handling factor

Load factor

Average length of haul

Freight transport modal split

PEST DRIVERS, SCM TRENDS, FREIGHT TRANSPORT SYSTEM UTILIZATION AND ENERGY USE INDICATORS



CONCLUDING REMARKS – FREIGHT TRANSPORT SECTOR

- Major drivers of the broader environment affecting the freight transport sector are:

Globalization / market deregulation Technological progress Growing affluence.

- The abovementioned prevalent driving forces are further supported by:

Policy changes (fiscal, transport, environmental, energy use, land use and regional development) Growing economies of scale Mass customization

- These drivers contribute to an ever-increasing intensity of freight transportation.



- The provision and use of freight transportation services demonstrates the following characteristics:

Use of more energy efficient freight transportation vehicles Improvement in vehicle utilization, higher load factors and reduction of empty runs Increase of the use of intermodal freight transportation




- Scenarios should consider the following trends:

Increasing demand for freight transport services Increasing fuel efficiency for freight transport vehicles, Increasing efficiency in the use of freight transport vehicles, Increasing intermodality, leading to different modal split.




- Trends affect five characteristics of the utilization of the freight transport system:

Number of trips Length of trips Frequency of trips Vehicle utilization Speed of trips




- Modelling of energy use in freight transport should consider the following indicators:

Freight transport demand (ton-km/capita, veh-km/capita) Freight transport modal split Average length of haul Load factor Handling factor Freight transport vehicle fuel consumption




NUMBER OFPASSENGER

TRIPS

DISTANCESTRAVELED

(TRIPLENGTH)

AVERAGEVEHICLE

OCCUPANCY

MOBILITYTRENDS

ENERGYRESOURCES

MODAL SPLIT

PASSENGER-KMS

FUELCONSUMPTI

ON

VEHICLE-KMS

VEHICLETECHNOLOGI

ES

PESTDRIVERS

ENERGYAVAILABILITY

TRANSPORTSYSTEM

CHARACTERISTICS

ENERGYEFFICIENCY

SPATIALDEVELOPMENTAND LAND USE

PATTERNS

DETERMINANTS AND INDICATORS OF PASSENGER TRANSPORT ENERGY USE



Mobility Trends

Drivers

Increase in

mobility

Virtual mobilit

y

Time and space

compression

Decrease in public transport

use

Increase in private car

use

Fiscal policy √

Transport policy √

Environmental policy √

Energy policy √ √

Land use and spatial development policy √ √ √ √

Globalization of the economy √ √ √

E-commerce √

Level of economic activity / income √ √ √ √

Population demographics √ √ √

Car ownership √ √ √

Market penetration of alternative vehicle technologies

√ √

Market barriers for alternative vehicle technologies

√

Social life-styles √ √ √ √

Traffic management technologies √ √

Communication and information technologies √ √

Energy efficiency (average fuel consumption) √ √ √

Fuel supply infrastructure √ √

Fleet composition √ √

PEST DRIVERS VS. MOBILITY TRENDS FOR PASSENGER TRANSPORT



Effects on passengertransport

Mobility trends

Number of trips

Distances travelled

Speed of trips

Frequency of trips

Vehicle utilisation

Increase in mobility √ √ √ √

Virtual mobility √ √ √ √

Time and space compression √ √ √ √ √

Decrease in public transport use

√ √ √

Increase in private car use √ √ √ √ √

MOBILITY TRENDS VS. EFFECTS OF PASSENGER TRANSPORT UTILIZATION



BROADER PEST ENVIRONMENT

Fiscal policy (taxation andincentives)

Transport policy(deregulation)

Environmental policy

Energy policy

Land use and spatialdevelopment policy

Population demographics

Globalization

Level of economic activity(GDP)

Marker penetration ofalternative vehicle

technologies

Marker barriers forintroducing alternativevehicle technologies

Car ownership

Fleet composition

Energy efficiency (averagefuel consumption)

Advancement of vehicletechnologies

Communication andinformation technologies

Fuel supply infrastructure

MOBILITY TRENDS

Increase in mobility

Virtual mobility (tele-shopping, tele-working)

Time and spacecompression (traveling

further faster)

Decrease in public transportuse

Increase in private car use

EFFECTS ON PASSENGERTRANSPORT SYSTEM

UTILIZATION

Number of trips

Distances traveled

Speed of trips

Frequency of trips

INDICATORS INFLUENCINGENERGY USE IN PASSENGER

TRANSPORT

Passenger transportdemand (pax-km)

Passenger vehicle fuelconsumption

Average length of trips

Vehicle occupancy rate

Passenger transport modalsplit (pax-km/mode)

Social life-styles

Traffic managementtechnologies

Vehicle utilization

PEST ENVIRONMENT, MOBILITY TRENDS, PASSENGER TRANSPORT SYSTEM UTILIZATION AND ENERGY USE INDICATORS



CONCLUDING REMARKS – PASSENGER TRANSPORT SECTOR

- Major drivers of the broader environment affecting the passenger transport sector are:

Growth in affluence Globalisation, European integration and market deregulation Growing economies of scale Declining residential densities

A trend for increased mobility (in terms of the number and length of trips), coupled with a trend for faster and more flexible realization of mobility needs and an increase in the use of private automobiles, will continue to be observed.




- The provision and use of passenger transport services demonstrates the following characteristics:

Use of more energy efficient private automobiles, Increase in the more efficient use of private automobiles through more effective traffic management, Use of innovative demand management policies and measures, Substitution of travel by communication services, Efforts to redirect trips from road and air to environment-friendly public transport .



- Scenarios should consider the following trends: :

Increasing demand for passenger transport services, Increasing fuel efficiency of private automobiles, More efficient use of automobiles, Introduction of policies and concepts for more efficient travel demand management.




- Mobility trends affect the following characteristics of the passenger transport system utilization:

Number of trips produced Distances travelled Frequency of trips Speed of trips Vehicle utilization Choice of fuels




- Modelling of energy use in passenger transport should consider the following indicators:

Passenger transport system demand (pax-km) Modal split per transport mode (pax-km/mode) Vehicle occupancy rate Average length of trips Passenger car fuel consumption


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ATHENS UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS AND LOGISTICS LABORATORY (TRANSLOG) © Prof. K. Zografos STEPs STEPs Scenarios for the