Implications of Impact of Climate Change on Biodiversity and Natural Capital for

Industry

Prof N H Ravindranath Indian Institute of Science

IPCC Author for Second third fourth and Fifth Assessment Report

Outline

1 Impact of Current or observed Climate change on Biodiversity and Natural capital

2 Projected impact of CC on BD and CC

3 Examples of impact of CC on ES and on industry

4 Highlight need for developing strategies policies and practices for enhancing resilience

CLIMATE CHANGE 2014

IMPACTS ADAPTATION AND VULNERABILITY

IPCC on Observed impacts of CC 1 In recent decades changes in climate have caused

impacts on natural and human systems on all continents

ndash Increased tree mortality observed in many places worldwide has been attributed to climate change in some regions

ndash Increases in the frequency or intensity of ecosystem disturbances such as droughts wind-storms fires and pest outbreaks have been detected in many parts of the world and in some cases are attributed to climate change

2 In response to ongoing climate change many terrestrial and marine species have

ndash Shifted their geographic ranges seasonal activities migration patterns ndash Experienced changes in abundances and species interactions

3 Impacts from recent climate-related extremes such as heat waves droughts floods cyclones and wildfires reveal significant vulnerability and exposure to current climate variability

bull Some ecosystems and bull Many human systems

4 Coastal systems are sensitive to combined effects of sea level rise ocean temperature and ocean acidification

UK Met Office The 2005 and 2010 droughts

These two droughts (Figure 1 Lewis et al

2011) both caused substantial carbon loss

(Phillips et al 2009 Lewis et al 2011)

turning the forest from a sink to a

temporary source of carbon (if all was

converted to carbon dioxide equivalent to

an impact of around 5 billion tons for each

event) Some negative effects of the 2005

drought persisted for several years after

the event While the causes of these

events are not well understood they

demonstrate that substantial drought is

possible and that the forest is sensitive to

such rainfall deficits Other recent work

has confirmed that global forest species

tend to have relatively narrow tolerance of

drought (Choat et al 2012) A concern

exists that such droughts could

become more common in the future

through climate change but the fate of

the Amazon is an even more complex

question

NASA Study finds severe climate

jeopardizing Amazon forest ndash 2005

drought Study suggests that if droughts continue at five- to 10-year intervals or increase in frequency due to climate change large areas of the Amazon forest are likely to be exposed to persistent effects of droughts and corresponding slow forest recovery

Impacts of Climate Change and Drought on Amazon Forests

Failure to migrate lack of tree range expansion in response to climate change

by Kai Zhu Christopher W Woodall James S Clark

Global Change Biology 2011

Tree species are expected to track warming climate by shifting their ranges to higher latitudes or elevations

Using the USDA Forest Services Forest Inventory and Analysis data we

directly compared seedling and tree 5th and 95th percentile latitudes for 92 species in 30 longitudinal bands for 43 334 plots across the eastern United States

Results suggest that 587 of the tree species examined show the pattern expected for a population undergoing range contraction rather than expansion at both northern and southern boundaries

Summary of WG 1 and WG 2

IPCC Working Group 2 ndash Projections of Impacts

bull Tree mortality and associated forest dieback will occur in many regions in the next one to three decades with forest dieback posing risks for ndash Biodiversity of ecosystems ndash Ecosystem Services - carbon storage wood production water

quality and economic activities

bull A large fraction of species face increased extinction risk under projected climate change during the 21st century ndash especially as climate change interacts with other pressures

bull habitat modification over-exploitation pollution and invasive species

bull Increased severe drought together with land-use change and forest fire would cause much of the Amazon forest to transform to less-dense drought- and fire-adapted ecosystems ndash increasing risk for biodiversity ndash decreasing net carbon uptake from the atmosphere

ECOSYSTEMS BIODIVERSITY AND ECOSYSTEM SERVICES

bull Landscapes and seascapes are changing rapidly and species including many iconic species may disappear from regions where they have been prevalent or become extinct ndash altering some regions so much that their mix of plant and

animal life will become almost unrecognizable bull Climate change impacts on ecosystems reduce their ability to improve water quality and regulate

water flows bull Climate change combined with other stressors is overwhelming the capacity of ecosystems to

buffer the impacts from extreme events like fires floods and storms bull Timing of critical biological events such as spring bud burst emergence from overwintering and

the start of migrations has shifted leading to important impacts on species and habitats bull Whole system management is often more effective than focusing on one species at a time and

can help reduce the harm to wildlife natural assets and human well-being that climate disruption might cause

US Global Change Program 2014

TOURISM

Climate change may put UNESCO

World Heritage Sites underwater

World cultural heritage threatened if

temperature rises 3 degrees study

suggests

If average global temperatures rise just three degrees above pre-industrial temperatures melting glaciers and ice sheets will push up the sea level enough to inundate 136 sites considered by UNESCO (United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural Organization) to be cultural and historical treasures sometime within the next 2000 years reports a new study published this week in

Environmental Research Letters 2014

Projected Impact of climate change SUGARCANE Climate change impacts on sugarcane attainable yield in southern Brazil

On average for the current sugarcane area in the State of Satildeo Paulo WUE will increase by 34 for rainfed sugarcane The WUE rise is relevant because of the current concern about water supply in southern Brazil Considering the current technological improvement rate projected yields for 2050 ranged from 96 to 129 tthinsphaminus1 which are respectively 15 and 59 higher than the current state average yield

Marin et al 2013 Climatic Change

Outline

1 Impact of Current or observed Climate change on Biodiversity and Natural capital

2 Projected impact of CC on BD and CC

3 Examples of impact of CC on ES and on industry

4 Highlight need for developing strategies policies and practices for enhancing resilience

CLIMATE CHANGE 2014

IMPACTS ADAPTATION AND VULNERABILITY

IPCC on Observed impacts of CC 1 In recent decades changes in climate have caused

impacts on natural and human systems on all continents

ndash Increased tree mortality observed in many places worldwide has been attributed to climate change in some regions

ndash Increases in the frequency or intensity of ecosystem disturbances such as droughts wind-storms fires and pest outbreaks have been detected in many parts of the world and in some cases are attributed to climate change

2 In response to ongoing climate change many terrestrial and marine species have

ndash Shifted their geographic ranges seasonal activities migration patterns ndash Experienced changes in abundances and species interactions

3 Impacts from recent climate-related extremes such as heat waves droughts floods cyclones and wildfires reveal significant vulnerability and exposure to current climate variability

bull Some ecosystems and bull Many human systems

4 Coastal systems are sensitive to combined effects of sea level rise ocean temperature and ocean acidification

UK Met Office The 2005 and 2010 droughts

These two droughts (Figure 1 Lewis et al

2011) both caused substantial carbon loss

(Phillips et al 2009 Lewis et al 2011)

turning the forest from a sink to a

temporary source of carbon (if all was

converted to carbon dioxide equivalent to

an impact of around 5 billion tons for each

event) Some negative effects of the 2005

drought persisted for several years after

the event While the causes of these

events are not well understood they

demonstrate that substantial drought is

possible and that the forest is sensitive to

such rainfall deficits Other recent work

has confirmed that global forest species

tend to have relatively narrow tolerance of

drought (Choat et al 2012) A concern

exists that such droughts could

become more common in the future

through climate change but the fate of

the Amazon is an even more complex

question

NASA Study finds severe climate

jeopardizing Amazon forest ndash 2005

drought Study suggests that if droughts continue at five- to 10-year intervals or increase in frequency due to climate change large areas of the Amazon forest are likely to be exposed to persistent effects of droughts and corresponding slow forest recovery

Impacts of Climate Change and Drought on Amazon Forests

Failure to migrate lack of tree range expansion in response to climate change

by Kai Zhu Christopher W Woodall James S Clark

Global Change Biology 2011

Tree species are expected to track warming climate by shifting their ranges to higher latitudes or elevations

Using the USDA Forest Services Forest Inventory and Analysis data we

directly compared seedling and tree 5th and 95th percentile latitudes for 92 species in 30 longitudinal bands for 43 334 plots across the eastern United States

Results suggest that 587 of the tree species examined show the pattern expected for a population undergoing range contraction rather than expansion at both northern and southern boundaries

Summary of WG 1 and WG 2

IPCC Working Group 2 ndash Projections of Impacts

bull Tree mortality and associated forest dieback will occur in many regions in the next one to three decades with forest dieback posing risks for ndash Biodiversity of ecosystems ndash Ecosystem Services - carbon storage wood production water

quality and economic activities

bull A large fraction of species face increased extinction risk under projected climate change during the 21st century ndash especially as climate change interacts with other pressures

bull habitat modification over-exploitation pollution and invasive species

bull Increased severe drought together with land-use change and forest fire would cause much of the Amazon forest to transform to less-dense drought- and fire-adapted ecosystems ndash increasing risk for biodiversity ndash decreasing net carbon uptake from the atmosphere

ECOSYSTEMS BIODIVERSITY AND ECOSYSTEM SERVICES

bull Landscapes and seascapes are changing rapidly and species including many iconic species may disappear from regions where they have been prevalent or become extinct ndash altering some regions so much that their mix of plant and

animal life will become almost unrecognizable bull Climate change impacts on ecosystems reduce their ability to improve water quality and regulate

water flows bull Climate change combined with other stressors is overwhelming the capacity of ecosystems to

buffer the impacts from extreme events like fires floods and storms bull Timing of critical biological events such as spring bud burst emergence from overwintering and

the start of migrations has shifted leading to important impacts on species and habitats bull Whole system management is often more effective than focusing on one species at a time and

can help reduce the harm to wildlife natural assets and human well-being that climate disruption might cause

US Global Change Program 2014

TOURISM

Climate change may put UNESCO

World Heritage Sites underwater

World cultural heritage threatened if

temperature rises 3 degrees study

suggests

If average global temperatures rise just three degrees above pre-industrial temperatures melting glaciers and ice sheets will push up the sea level enough to inundate 136 sites considered by UNESCO (United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural Organization) to be cultural and historical treasures sometime within the next 2000 years reports a new study published this week in

Environmental Research Letters 2014

Projected Impact of climate change SUGARCANE Climate change impacts on sugarcane attainable yield in southern Brazil

On average for the current sugarcane area in the State of Satildeo Paulo WUE will increase by 34 for rainfed sugarcane The WUE rise is relevant because of the current concern about water supply in southern Brazil Considering the current technological improvement rate projected yields for 2050 ranged from 96 to 129 tthinsphaminus1 which are respectively 15 and 59 higher than the current state average yield

Marin et al 2013 Climatic Change

CLIMATE CHANGE 2014

IMPACTS ADAPTATION AND VULNERABILITY

IPCC on Observed impacts of CC 1 In recent decades changes in climate have caused

impacts on natural and human systems on all continents

ndash Increased tree mortality observed in many places worldwide has been attributed to climate change in some regions

ndash Increases in the frequency or intensity of ecosystem disturbances such as droughts wind-storms fires and pest outbreaks have been detected in many parts of the world and in some cases are attributed to climate change

2 In response to ongoing climate change many terrestrial and marine species have

ndash Shifted their geographic ranges seasonal activities migration patterns ndash Experienced changes in abundances and species interactions

3 Impacts from recent climate-related extremes such as heat waves droughts floods cyclones and wildfires reveal significant vulnerability and exposure to current climate variability

bull Some ecosystems and bull Many human systems

4 Coastal systems are sensitive to combined effects of sea level rise ocean temperature and ocean acidification

UK Met Office The 2005 and 2010 droughts

These two droughts (Figure 1 Lewis et al

2011) both caused substantial carbon loss

(Phillips et al 2009 Lewis et al 2011)

turning the forest from a sink to a

temporary source of carbon (if all was

converted to carbon dioxide equivalent to

an impact of around 5 billion tons for each

event) Some negative effects of the 2005

drought persisted for several years after

the event While the causes of these

events are not well understood they

demonstrate that substantial drought is

possible and that the forest is sensitive to

such rainfall deficits Other recent work

has confirmed that global forest species

tend to have relatively narrow tolerance of

drought (Choat et al 2012) A concern

exists that such droughts could

become more common in the future

through climate change but the fate of

the Amazon is an even more complex

question

NASA Study finds severe climate

jeopardizing Amazon forest ndash 2005

drought Study suggests that if droughts continue at five- to 10-year intervals or increase in frequency due to climate change large areas of the Amazon forest are likely to be exposed to persistent effects of droughts and corresponding slow forest recovery

Impacts of Climate Change and Drought on Amazon Forests

Failure to migrate lack of tree range expansion in response to climate change

by Kai Zhu Christopher W Woodall James S Clark

Global Change Biology 2011

Tree species are expected to track warming climate by shifting their ranges to higher latitudes or elevations

Using the USDA Forest Services Forest Inventory and Analysis data we

directly compared seedling and tree 5th and 95th percentile latitudes for 92 species in 30 longitudinal bands for 43 334 plots across the eastern United States

Results suggest that 587 of the tree species examined show the pattern expected for a population undergoing range contraction rather than expansion at both northern and southern boundaries

Summary of WG 1 and WG 2

IPCC Working Group 2 ndash Projections of Impacts

bull Tree mortality and associated forest dieback will occur in many regions in the next one to three decades with forest dieback posing risks for ndash Biodiversity of ecosystems ndash Ecosystem Services - carbon storage wood production water

quality and economic activities

bull A large fraction of species face increased extinction risk under projected climate change during the 21st century ndash especially as climate change interacts with other pressures

bull habitat modification over-exploitation pollution and invasive species

bull Increased severe drought together with land-use change and forest fire would cause much of the Amazon forest to transform to less-dense drought- and fire-adapted ecosystems ndash increasing risk for biodiversity ndash decreasing net carbon uptake from the atmosphere

ECOSYSTEMS BIODIVERSITY AND ECOSYSTEM SERVICES

bull Landscapes and seascapes are changing rapidly and species including many iconic species may disappear from regions where they have been prevalent or become extinct ndash altering some regions so much that their mix of plant and

animal life will become almost unrecognizable bull Climate change impacts on ecosystems reduce their ability to improve water quality and regulate

water flows bull Climate change combined with other stressors is overwhelming the capacity of ecosystems to

buffer the impacts from extreme events like fires floods and storms bull Timing of critical biological events such as spring bud burst emergence from overwintering and

the start of migrations has shifted leading to important impacts on species and habitats bull Whole system management is often more effective than focusing on one species at a time and

can help reduce the harm to wildlife natural assets and human well-being that climate disruption might cause

US Global Change Program 2014

TOURISM

Climate change may put UNESCO

World Heritage Sites underwater

World cultural heritage threatened if

temperature rises 3 degrees study

suggests

If average global temperatures rise just three degrees above pre-industrial temperatures melting glaciers and ice sheets will push up the sea level enough to inundate 136 sites considered by UNESCO (United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural Organization) to be cultural and historical treasures sometime within the next 2000 years reports a new study published this week in

Environmental Research Letters 2014

Projected Impact of climate change SUGARCANE Climate change impacts on sugarcane attainable yield in southern Brazil

On average for the current sugarcane area in the State of Satildeo Paulo WUE will increase by 34 for rainfed sugarcane The WUE rise is relevant because of the current concern about water supply in southern Brazil Considering the current technological improvement rate projected yields for 2050 ranged from 96 to 129 tthinsphaminus1 which are respectively 15 and 59 higher than the current state average yield

Marin et al 2013 Climatic Change

IPCC on Observed impacts of CC 1 In recent decades changes in climate have caused

impacts on natural and human systems on all continents

ndash Increased tree mortality observed in many places worldwide has been attributed to climate change in some regions

ndash Increases in the frequency or intensity of ecosystem disturbances such as droughts wind-storms fires and pest outbreaks have been detected in many parts of the world and in some cases are attributed to climate change

2 In response to ongoing climate change many terrestrial and marine species have

ndash Shifted their geographic ranges seasonal activities migration patterns ndash Experienced changes in abundances and species interactions

3 Impacts from recent climate-related extremes such as heat waves droughts floods cyclones and wildfires reveal significant vulnerability and exposure to current climate variability

bull Some ecosystems and bull Many human systems

4 Coastal systems are sensitive to combined effects of sea level rise ocean temperature and ocean acidification

UK Met Office The 2005 and 2010 droughts

These two droughts (Figure 1 Lewis et al

2011) both caused substantial carbon loss

(Phillips et al 2009 Lewis et al 2011)

turning the forest from a sink to a

temporary source of carbon (if all was

converted to carbon dioxide equivalent to

an impact of around 5 billion tons for each

event) Some negative effects of the 2005

drought persisted for several years after

the event While the causes of these

events are not well understood they

demonstrate that substantial drought is

possible and that the forest is sensitive to

such rainfall deficits Other recent work

has confirmed that global forest species

tend to have relatively narrow tolerance of

drought (Choat et al 2012) A concern

exists that such droughts could

become more common in the future

through climate change but the fate of

the Amazon is an even more complex

question

NASA Study finds severe climate

jeopardizing Amazon forest ndash 2005

drought Study suggests that if droughts continue at five- to 10-year intervals or increase in frequency due to climate change large areas of the Amazon forest are likely to be exposed to persistent effects of droughts and corresponding slow forest recovery

Impacts of Climate Change and Drought on Amazon Forests

Failure to migrate lack of tree range expansion in response to climate change

by Kai Zhu Christopher W Woodall James S Clark

Global Change Biology 2011

Tree species are expected to track warming climate by shifting their ranges to higher latitudes or elevations

Using the USDA Forest Services Forest Inventory and Analysis data we

directly compared seedling and tree 5th and 95th percentile latitudes for 92 species in 30 longitudinal bands for 43 334 plots across the eastern United States

Results suggest that 587 of the tree species examined show the pattern expected for a population undergoing range contraction rather than expansion at both northern and southern boundaries

Summary of WG 1 and WG 2

IPCC Working Group 2 ndash Projections of Impacts

bull Tree mortality and associated forest dieback will occur in many regions in the next one to three decades with forest dieback posing risks for ndash Biodiversity of ecosystems ndash Ecosystem Services - carbon storage wood production water

quality and economic activities

bull A large fraction of species face increased extinction risk under projected climate change during the 21st century ndash especially as climate change interacts with other pressures

bull habitat modification over-exploitation pollution and invasive species

bull Increased severe drought together with land-use change and forest fire would cause much of the Amazon forest to transform to less-dense drought- and fire-adapted ecosystems ndash increasing risk for biodiversity ndash decreasing net carbon uptake from the atmosphere

ECOSYSTEMS BIODIVERSITY AND ECOSYSTEM SERVICES

bull Landscapes and seascapes are changing rapidly and species including many iconic species may disappear from regions where they have been prevalent or become extinct ndash altering some regions so much that their mix of plant and

animal life will become almost unrecognizable bull Climate change impacts on ecosystems reduce their ability to improve water quality and regulate

water flows bull Climate change combined with other stressors is overwhelming the capacity of ecosystems to

buffer the impacts from extreme events like fires floods and storms bull Timing of critical biological events such as spring bud burst emergence from overwintering and

the start of migrations has shifted leading to important impacts on species and habitats bull Whole system management is often more effective than focusing on one species at a time and

can help reduce the harm to wildlife natural assets and human well-being that climate disruption might cause

US Global Change Program 2014

TOURISM

Climate change may put UNESCO

World Heritage Sites underwater

World cultural heritage threatened if

temperature rises 3 degrees study

suggests

If average global temperatures rise just three degrees above pre-industrial temperatures melting glaciers and ice sheets will push up the sea level enough to inundate 136 sites considered by UNESCO (United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural Organization) to be cultural and historical treasures sometime within the next 2000 years reports a new study published this week in

Environmental Research Letters 2014

Projected Impact of climate change SUGARCANE Climate change impacts on sugarcane attainable yield in southern Brazil

On average for the current sugarcane area in the State of Satildeo Paulo WUE will increase by 34 for rainfed sugarcane The WUE rise is relevant because of the current concern about water supply in southern Brazil Considering the current technological improvement rate projected yields for 2050 ranged from 96 to 129 tthinsphaminus1 which are respectively 15 and 59 higher than the current state average yield

Marin et al 2013 Climatic Change

UK Met Office The 2005 and 2010 droughts

These two droughts (Figure 1 Lewis et al

2011) both caused substantial carbon loss

(Phillips et al 2009 Lewis et al 2011)

turning the forest from a sink to a

temporary source of carbon (if all was

converted to carbon dioxide equivalent to

an impact of around 5 billion tons for each

event) Some negative effects of the 2005

drought persisted for several years after

the event While the causes of these

events are not well understood they

demonstrate that substantial drought is

possible and that the forest is sensitive to

such rainfall deficits Other recent work

has confirmed that global forest species

tend to have relatively narrow tolerance of

drought (Choat et al 2012) A concern

exists that such droughts could

become more common in the future

through climate change but the fate of

the Amazon is an even more complex

question

NASA Study finds severe climate

jeopardizing Amazon forest ndash 2005

drought Study suggests that if droughts continue at five- to 10-year intervals or increase in frequency due to climate change large areas of the Amazon forest are likely to be exposed to persistent effects of droughts and corresponding slow forest recovery

Impacts of Climate Change and Drought on Amazon Forests

Failure to migrate lack of tree range expansion in response to climate change

by Kai Zhu Christopher W Woodall James S Clark

Global Change Biology 2011

Tree species are expected to track warming climate by shifting their ranges to higher latitudes or elevations

Using the USDA Forest Services Forest Inventory and Analysis data we

directly compared seedling and tree 5th and 95th percentile latitudes for 92 species in 30 longitudinal bands for 43 334 plots across the eastern United States

Results suggest that 587 of the tree species examined show the pattern expected for a population undergoing range contraction rather than expansion at both northern and southern boundaries

Summary of WG 1 and WG 2

IPCC Working Group 2 ndash Projections of Impacts

bull Tree mortality and associated forest dieback will occur in many regions in the next one to three decades with forest dieback posing risks for ndash Biodiversity of ecosystems ndash Ecosystem Services - carbon storage wood production water

quality and economic activities

bull A large fraction of species face increased extinction risk under projected climate change during the 21st century ndash especially as climate change interacts with other pressures

bull habitat modification over-exploitation pollution and invasive species

bull Increased severe drought together with land-use change and forest fire would cause much of the Amazon forest to transform to less-dense drought- and fire-adapted ecosystems ndash increasing risk for biodiversity ndash decreasing net carbon uptake from the atmosphere

ECOSYSTEMS BIODIVERSITY AND ECOSYSTEM SERVICES

bull Landscapes and seascapes are changing rapidly and species including many iconic species may disappear from regions where they have been prevalent or become extinct ndash altering some regions so much that their mix of plant and

animal life will become almost unrecognizable bull Climate change impacts on ecosystems reduce their ability to improve water quality and regulate

water flows bull Climate change combined with other stressors is overwhelming the capacity of ecosystems to

buffer the impacts from extreme events like fires floods and storms bull Timing of critical biological events such as spring bud burst emergence from overwintering and

the start of migrations has shifted leading to important impacts on species and habitats bull Whole system management is often more effective than focusing on one species at a time and

can help reduce the harm to wildlife natural assets and human well-being that climate disruption might cause

US Global Change Program 2014

TOURISM

Climate change may put UNESCO

World Heritage Sites underwater

World cultural heritage threatened if

temperature rises 3 degrees study

suggests

If average global temperatures rise just three degrees above pre-industrial temperatures melting glaciers and ice sheets will push up the sea level enough to inundate 136 sites considered by UNESCO (United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural Organization) to be cultural and historical treasures sometime within the next 2000 years reports a new study published this week in

Environmental Research Letters 2014

Projected Impact of climate change SUGARCANE Climate change impacts on sugarcane attainable yield in southern Brazil

On average for the current sugarcane area in the State of Satildeo Paulo WUE will increase by 34 for rainfed sugarcane The WUE rise is relevant because of the current concern about water supply in southern Brazil Considering the current technological improvement rate projected yields for 2050 ranged from 96 to 129 tthinsphaminus1 which are respectively 15 and 59 higher than the current state average yield

Marin et al 2013 Climatic Change

Failure to migrate lack of tree range expansion in response to climate change

by Kai Zhu Christopher W Woodall James S Clark

Global Change Biology 2011

Tree species are expected to track warming climate by shifting their ranges to higher latitudes or elevations

Using the USDA Forest Services Forest Inventory and Analysis data we

directly compared seedling and tree 5th and 95th percentile latitudes for 92 species in 30 longitudinal bands for 43 334 plots across the eastern United States

Results suggest that 587 of the tree species examined show the pattern expected for a population undergoing range contraction rather than expansion at both northern and southern boundaries

Summary of WG 1 and WG 2

IPCC Working Group 2 ndash Projections of Impacts

bull Tree mortality and associated forest dieback will occur in many regions in the next one to three decades with forest dieback posing risks for ndash Biodiversity of ecosystems ndash Ecosystem Services - carbon storage wood production water

quality and economic activities

bull A large fraction of species face increased extinction risk under projected climate change during the 21st century ndash especially as climate change interacts with other pressures

bull habitat modification over-exploitation pollution and invasive species

bull Increased severe drought together with land-use change and forest fire would cause much of the Amazon forest to transform to less-dense drought- and fire-adapted ecosystems ndash increasing risk for biodiversity ndash decreasing net carbon uptake from the atmosphere

ECOSYSTEMS BIODIVERSITY AND ECOSYSTEM SERVICES

bull Landscapes and seascapes are changing rapidly and species including many iconic species may disappear from regions where they have been prevalent or become extinct ndash altering some regions so much that their mix of plant and

animal life will become almost unrecognizable bull Climate change impacts on ecosystems reduce their ability to improve water quality and regulate

water flows bull Climate change combined with other stressors is overwhelming the capacity of ecosystems to

buffer the impacts from extreme events like fires floods and storms bull Timing of critical biological events such as spring bud burst emergence from overwintering and

the start of migrations has shifted leading to important impacts on species and habitats bull Whole system management is often more effective than focusing on one species at a time and

can help reduce the harm to wildlife natural assets and human well-being that climate disruption might cause

US Global Change Program 2014

TOURISM

Climate change may put UNESCO

World Heritage Sites underwater

World cultural heritage threatened if

temperature rises 3 degrees study

suggests

If average global temperatures rise just three degrees above pre-industrial temperatures melting glaciers and ice sheets will push up the sea level enough to inundate 136 sites considered by UNESCO (United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural Organization) to be cultural and historical treasures sometime within the next 2000 years reports a new study published this week in

Environmental Research Letters 2014

Projected Impact of climate change SUGARCANE Climate change impacts on sugarcane attainable yield in southern Brazil

On average for the current sugarcane area in the State of Satildeo Paulo WUE will increase by 34 for rainfed sugarcane The WUE rise is relevant because of the current concern about water supply in southern Brazil Considering the current technological improvement rate projected yields for 2050 ranged from 96 to 129 tthinsphaminus1 which are respectively 15 and 59 higher than the current state average yield

Marin et al 2013 Climatic Change

Summary of WG 1 and WG 2

IPCC Working Group 2 ndash Projections of Impacts

bull Tree mortality and associated forest dieback will occur in many regions in the next one to three decades with forest dieback posing risks for ndash Biodiversity of ecosystems ndash Ecosystem Services - carbon storage wood production water

quality and economic activities

bull A large fraction of species face increased extinction risk under projected climate change during the 21st century ndash especially as climate change interacts with other pressures

bull habitat modification over-exploitation pollution and invasive species

bull Increased severe drought together with land-use change and forest fire would cause much of the Amazon forest to transform to less-dense drought- and fire-adapted ecosystems ndash increasing risk for biodiversity ndash decreasing net carbon uptake from the atmosphere

ECOSYSTEMS BIODIVERSITY AND ECOSYSTEM SERVICES

bull Landscapes and seascapes are changing rapidly and species including many iconic species may disappear from regions where they have been prevalent or become extinct ndash altering some regions so much that their mix of plant and

animal life will become almost unrecognizable bull Climate change impacts on ecosystems reduce their ability to improve water quality and regulate

water flows bull Climate change combined with other stressors is overwhelming the capacity of ecosystems to

buffer the impacts from extreme events like fires floods and storms bull Timing of critical biological events such as spring bud burst emergence from overwintering and

the start of migrations has shifted leading to important impacts on species and habitats bull Whole system management is often more effective than focusing on one species at a time and

can help reduce the harm to wildlife natural assets and human well-being that climate disruption might cause

US Global Change Program 2014

TOURISM

Climate change may put UNESCO

World Heritage Sites underwater

World cultural heritage threatened if

temperature rises 3 degrees study

suggests

If average global temperatures rise just three degrees above pre-industrial temperatures melting glaciers and ice sheets will push up the sea level enough to inundate 136 sites considered by UNESCO (United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural Organization) to be cultural and historical treasures sometime within the next 2000 years reports a new study published this week in

Environmental Research Letters 2014

Projected Impact of climate change SUGARCANE Climate change impacts on sugarcane attainable yield in southern Brazil

On average for the current sugarcane area in the State of Satildeo Paulo WUE will increase by 34 for rainfed sugarcane The WUE rise is relevant because of the current concern about water supply in southern Brazil Considering the current technological improvement rate projected yields for 2050 ranged from 96 to 129 tthinsphaminus1 which are respectively 15 and 59 higher than the current state average yield

Marin et al 2013 Climatic Change

IPCC Working Group 2 ndash Projections of Impacts

bull Tree mortality and associated forest dieback will occur in many regions in the next one to three decades with forest dieback posing risks for ndash Biodiversity of ecosystems ndash Ecosystem Services - carbon storage wood production water

quality and economic activities

bull A large fraction of species face increased extinction risk under projected climate change during the 21st century ndash especially as climate change interacts with other pressures

bull habitat modification over-exploitation pollution and invasive species

bull Increased severe drought together with land-use change and forest fire would cause much of the Amazon forest to transform to less-dense drought- and fire-adapted ecosystems ndash increasing risk for biodiversity ndash decreasing net carbon uptake from the atmosphere

ECOSYSTEMS BIODIVERSITY AND ECOSYSTEM SERVICES

bull Landscapes and seascapes are changing rapidly and species including many iconic species may disappear from regions where they have been prevalent or become extinct ndash altering some regions so much that their mix of plant and

animal life will become almost unrecognizable bull Climate change impacts on ecosystems reduce their ability to improve water quality and regulate

water flows bull Climate change combined with other stressors is overwhelming the capacity of ecosystems to

buffer the impacts from extreme events like fires floods and storms bull Timing of critical biological events such as spring bud burst emergence from overwintering and

the start of migrations has shifted leading to important impacts on species and habitats bull Whole system management is often more effective than focusing on one species at a time and

can help reduce the harm to wildlife natural assets and human well-being that climate disruption might cause

US Global Change Program 2014

TOURISM

Climate change may put UNESCO

World Heritage Sites underwater

World cultural heritage threatened if

temperature rises 3 degrees study

suggests

If average global temperatures rise just three degrees above pre-industrial temperatures melting glaciers and ice sheets will push up the sea level enough to inundate 136 sites considered by UNESCO (United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural Organization) to be cultural and historical treasures sometime within the next 2000 years reports a new study published this week in

Environmental Research Letters 2014

Projected Impact of climate change SUGARCANE Climate change impacts on sugarcane attainable yield in southern Brazil

On average for the current sugarcane area in the State of Satildeo Paulo WUE will increase by 34 for rainfed sugarcane The WUE rise is relevant because of the current concern about water supply in southern Brazil Considering the current technological improvement rate projected yields for 2050 ranged from 96 to 129 tthinsphaminus1 which are respectively 15 and 59 higher than the current state average yield

Marin et al 2013 Climatic Change

ECOSYSTEMS BIODIVERSITY AND ECOSYSTEM SERVICES

bull Landscapes and seascapes are changing rapidly and species including many iconic species may disappear from regions where they have been prevalent or become extinct ndash altering some regions so much that their mix of plant and

animal life will become almost unrecognizable bull Climate change impacts on ecosystems reduce their ability to improve water quality and regulate

water flows bull Climate change combined with other stressors is overwhelming the capacity of ecosystems to

buffer the impacts from extreme events like fires floods and storms bull Timing of critical biological events such as spring bud burst emergence from overwintering and

the start of migrations has shifted leading to important impacts on species and habitats bull Whole system management is often more effective than focusing on one species at a time and

can help reduce the harm to wildlife natural assets and human well-being that climate disruption might cause

US Global Change Program 2014

TOURISM

Climate change may put UNESCO

World Heritage Sites underwater

World cultural heritage threatened if

temperature rises 3 degrees study

suggests

If average global temperatures rise just three degrees above pre-industrial temperatures melting glaciers and ice sheets will push up the sea level enough to inundate 136 sites considered by UNESCO (United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural Organization) to be cultural and historical treasures sometime within the next 2000 years reports a new study published this week in

Environmental Research Letters 2014

Projected Impact of climate change SUGARCANE Climate change impacts on sugarcane attainable yield in southern Brazil

On average for the current sugarcane area in the State of Satildeo Paulo WUE will increase by 34 for rainfed sugarcane The WUE rise is relevant because of the current concern about water supply in southern Brazil Considering the current technological improvement rate projected yields for 2050 ranged from 96 to 129 tthinsphaminus1 which are respectively 15 and 59 higher than the current state average yield

Marin et al 2013 Climatic Change

TOURISM

Climate change may put UNESCO

World Heritage Sites underwater

World cultural heritage threatened if

temperature rises 3 degrees study

suggests

If average global temperatures rise just three degrees above pre-industrial temperatures melting glaciers and ice sheets will push up the sea level enough to inundate 136 sites considered by UNESCO (United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural Organization) to be cultural and historical treasures sometime within the next 2000 years reports a new study published this week in

Environmental Research Letters 2014

Projected Impact of climate change SUGARCANE Climate change impacts on sugarcane attainable yield in southern Brazil

On average for the current sugarcane area in the State of Satildeo Paulo WUE will increase by 34 for rainfed sugarcane The WUE rise is relevant because of the current concern about water supply in southern Brazil Considering the current technological improvement rate projected yields for 2050 ranged from 96 to 129 tthinsphaminus1 which are respectively 15 and 59 higher than the current state average yield

Marin et al 2013 Climatic Change

IMPACT ON COFFEE INDUSTRY

Climate change will brew a bad-tasting

expensive cup of coffee Rising heat extreme weather and pests mean the highland bean is

running out of cool mountainsides on which it flourishes The Guardian Friday 28 March 2014

The rise in global temperature is of great concern for us in the coffee industry

because it will ndash and has already started ndash putting the supply of quality coffee at

great risk said Dr Tim Schilling executive director of the World Coffee Research programme

based at Texas AampM University It is also obvious that increasing temperatures ndash as well as

extreme weather events ndash have a very negative affect on production Over the long term you will

definitely see coffee prices going up as a result of climate changeldquo

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Latin America how climate change will wipe out coffee crops ndash and farmers Rising temperatures resulting from climate change are fuelling the growth of rust a disease ravaging coffee plantations in Central America

The Observer Sunday 30 March 2014

Examples of implications for climate change on industry

Industry Potential impacts

Pharmaceutical industries

Complete loss or extinction of species trees and herbs shifts in species assemblage

Cosmetics and aromatics

Changes in biodiversity changes in forest types extinction of species will threaten the industry

Coffee and Tea Changes in rainfall pattern drought floods could impact yield Warming could impact quality or aroma

Plantations ndash forest Productivity may increase initially due to CO2 fertilization But pest amp disease or drought can impact production of wood

Tourism Loss or degradation of many UNESCO Natural Heritage sites Iconic fauna ndash Birds mammals and coral reefs will be lost

Fishing industry Warming leads to fish species could impact fish production Ocean acidification could also impact production

Hydroelectric generation

Changes in rainfall pattern leads to changes in stream flow further evaporation of water may increase loss

Implications for Business depending on Natural Capital and Biodiversity

1 Supply of goods and services from forests and other ecosystems will be adversely affected

2 Sustained supply of raw material from ecosystems will be affected

3 Quality of raw material could be impacted aroma fragrance taste

4 Implications for the finished product quality aroma etc 5 Complete loss of ecosystem loss of heritage site or loss of

nature reservehellip 6 Impact on infrastructure 7 Impacts on BD are likely to be irreversible and

ndash there is a lag in the response of ecosystems to climate change

Thus Industry must address the implications of climate change on

BD ES and ecosystem dependent communities - To build resilience in ecosystems and communities - To develop adaptation strategies and practices

What Industry can do to protect Biodiversity and Natural Capital based systems

1 Mainstream CC concerns impacts vulnerability in their plans and programs

ndash Raw material supply supply chains ndash Quality of the raw material ndash Impact on infrastructure

2 Conduct studies and assess impacts - short and long term on their production products raw material supply etc

ndash Tourism Coffee pharmaceutical etc

3 Promote Adaptation or resilience measures to reduce the vulnerabilities of ecosystems production systems and local communities for sustained business

4 Explore Mitigation-Adaptation synergy for all natural capital and BD based production systems

ndash Adaptation to CC ndash Get carbon credits for adaptation intervention

The UN chief also noted that managing

the risks of climate change will be

increasingly difficult UN chief welcomes

latest IPCC report on climate change

hellip managing the risks of climate change will be increasingly difficult with higher levels of warming

Ding and Nunes Ecological Economics 97 (2014) 60ndash73

Ding and Nunes Ecological Economics 97 (2014) 60ndash73

Implications for Business depending on Natural Capital and Biodiversity

1 Supply of goods and services from forests and other ecosystems will be adversely affected

2 Sustained supply of raw material from ecosystems will be affected

3 Quality of raw material could be impacted aroma fragrance taste

4 Implications for the finished product quality aroma etc 5 Complete loss of ecosystem loss of heritage site or loss of

nature reservehellip 6 Impact on infrastructure 7 Impacts on BD are likely to be irreversible and

ndash there is a lag in the response of ecosystems to climate change

Thus Industry must address the implications of climate change on

BD ES and ecosystem dependent communities - To build resilience in ecosystems and communities - To develop adaptation strategies and practices

What Industry can do to protect Biodiversity and Natural Capital based systems

1 Mainstream CC concerns impacts vulnerability in their plans and programs

ndash Raw material supply supply chains ndash Quality of the raw material ndash Impact on infrastructure

2 Conduct studies and assess impacts - short and long term on their production products raw material supply etc

ndash Tourism Coffee pharmaceutical etc

3 Promote Adaptation or resilience measures to reduce the vulnerabilities of ecosystems production systems and local communities for sustained business

4 Explore Mitigation-Adaptation synergy for all natural capital and BD based production systems

ndash Adaptation to CC ndash Get carbon credits for adaptation intervention

The UN chief also noted that managing

the risks of climate change will be

increasingly difficult UN chief welcomes

latest IPCC report on climate change

hellip managing the risks of climate change will be increasingly difficult with higher levels of warming

Ding and Nunes Ecological Economics 97 (2014) 60ndash73

Ding and Nunes Ecological Economics 97 (2014) 60ndash73

What Industry can do to protect Biodiversity and Natural Capital based systems

1 Mainstream CC concerns impacts vulnerability in their plans and programs

ndash Raw material supply supply chains ndash Quality of the raw material ndash Impact on infrastructure

2 Conduct studies and assess impacts - short and long term on their production products raw material supply etc

ndash Tourism Coffee pharmaceutical etc

3 Promote Adaptation or resilience measures to reduce the vulnerabilities of ecosystems production systems and local communities for sustained business

4 Explore Mitigation-Adaptation synergy for all natural capital and BD based production systems

ndash Adaptation to CC ndash Get carbon credits for adaptation intervention

The UN chief also noted that managing

the risks of climate change will be

increasingly difficult UN chief welcomes

latest IPCC report on climate change

hellip managing the risks of climate change will be increasingly difficult with higher levels of warming

Ding and Nunes Ecological Economics 97 (2014) 60ndash73

Ding and Nunes Ecological Economics 97 (2014) 60ndash73

The UN chief also noted that managing

the risks of climate change will be

increasingly difficult UN chief welcomes

latest IPCC report on climate change

hellip managing the risks of climate change will be increasingly difficult with higher levels of warming

Ding and Nunes Ecological Economics 97 (2014) 60ndash73

Ding and Nunes Ecological Economics 97 (2014) 60ndash73

Ding and Nunes Ecological Economics 97 (2014) 60ndash73

Ding and Nunes Ecological Economics 97 (2014) 60ndash73

Ding and Nunes Ecological Economics 97 (2014) 60ndash73