Assessing Progress in Africa toward Achieving the

Millennium Development Goals

Main messages from the 2011 report

United Nations Economic Commission for Africa

2011 International Conference on MDG Statistics Manila

October 2011

Outline of the presentation

IntroductionIntroduction

Areas of progressAreas of progress

Areas of concernAreas of concern

Primary Education and Child MortalityPrimary Education and Child Mortality

Social protection as a policy optionSocial protection as a policy option

Way forward Way forward

Introduction

While some progress has been made, the rate of While some progress has been made, the rate of progress is insufficient for the continent to reach progress is insufficient for the continent to reach many targets. To accelerate progress, sustained many targets. To accelerate progress, sustained efforts on all fronts is required. Governments efforts on all fronts is required. Governments must prioritize budgetary allocations. must prioritize budgetary allocations.

Recovery from global financial crisis provides new Recovery from global financial crisis provides new opportunity for African countries to harness opportunity for African countries to harness economic growth and reduce povertyeconomic growth and reduce poverty

Large variances between and withinLarge variances between and within countries’ countries’ progress on each goal, points to the needprogress on each goal, points to the need to to address equity in the delivery of social servicesaddress equity in the delivery of social services

Areas of progressAreas of progress

Goal 2: African countries are likely to meet primary enrollment targets, many have already achieved this goal

Goal 3, Target 3A: Several African countries have already achieved gender parity in primary schools. Improvements in the empowerment of women, as well as their political representation are to be commended but also scaled up.

Goal 6, Target 6A: Significant improvements in prevention of new HIV infections through increased reported condom-use, particularly among youth, provision of Antiretroviral Treatment and continent-wide behavior change.

Goal 8, Target 8D: A considerable number of African countries have reached post-HIPC completion point

Goal 1: Economic growth has not translated into reduction in absolute poverty; unemployment (youth, feminized), and hunger remain high

Goal 2: Despite significant progress by most African countries to reach enrollment targets, this progress is yet to translate into commensurate primary completion rates. Quality of education remains a concern

Goal 4: Progress to reduce child mortality has been too slow to achieve goal, this is further exacerbated by high population growth. Levels of child and infant mortality remain high in most countries

Goal 5: Despite slow improvements, conditions for African mothers remain dire

Areas of concernAreas of concern

Areas of Concern

Goal 6, Target C: Have halted by 2015 and begun to Goal 6, Target C: Have halted by 2015 and begun to reverse the incidence of malaria and other major reverse the incidence of malaria and other major diseases. Malaria remains a major cause of morbidity diseases. Malaria remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality. Although scaled up financing ensured and mortality. Although scaled up financing ensured that ITNs reached beneficiaries, more funds are needed that ITNs reached beneficiaries, more funds are needed to achieve this target.to achieve this target.

Goal 7, Target C: Progress to increase access to safe Goal 7, Target C: Progress to increase access to safe drinking water and basic sanitation has been slow and drinking water and basic sanitation has been slow and should be scaled-up. There is a large urban/rural divide should be scaled-up. There is a large urban/rural divide in respect to this indicator.in respect to this indicator.

7

Primary Education – Goal 2

Sub-Saharan Africa has the best record for improvement in primary school enrolment

58

86 8276

8994

Sub-Saharan Africa Northern Africa Developing regions

1998/1999 2008/2009

Primary Education – Goal 2

Progress in net enrolment primary education in selected African countries, 1991 -2008/2009

Primary Education – Goal 2

Of the 36 African countries for which data is available for 2008/2009, 16 have achieved net enrollment ratio of more than 90 per cent

Ten countries have improved their net enrolment ratios by more than 25 percentage points – Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Guinea, Mali, Morocco, Mozambique, Niger, Rwanda, Senegal and Tanzania

Burkina Faso 27 % to 64 %; Ethiopia 24 per cent to 87 per cent

Djibouti and Eritrea lag behind registering net enrollment ratio of less 50 per cent

Primary Education –Goal 2

Primary education enrolment and completion rates in selected African countries, 2008

Primary Education – Goal 2

Despite good performance by majority of African countries toward universal primary school enrollment, this progress has yet to translate into commensurate primary completion rates

Benin – 22 per cent (1991) to 65 per cent (2008)Countries that have made significant progress

since 1991 are Algeria, Guinea, Madagascar, Mali, Mauritania, Morocco and Mozambique

Countries with less than 50 per cent primary completion rate in 2008 – Burkina Faso, Burundi, CAR, Cote d Ivoire, Djibouti, Eritrea and Niger

Primary Education – Goal 2

44 48

3 2

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1999 2000

Sub-Saharan Africa Northern Africa Rest of the world

Africa’s Burden of Out of School Children in the World1999 and 2009

About half of the world’s out of school children live in Sub-Saharan Africa

32 million out of 67 million

Primary Education – Goal 2

UWEZO Initiative (in Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania)

Annual Learning Assessment Report Tanzania 2010

One in five primary school leavers cannot read Standard 2 level Kiswahili

Only 7 in 10 primary school leavers can do Standard 2 level Mathematics

Child Mortality – Goal 4

27

60

55

26

129

118

80

180

165

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200

Northern Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa

Africa

Target 2005 2009 1990

Under-five Mortality Rate in Africa, 1990, 2009 and MDG target

Child Mortality – Goal 4

Average annual reduction of 1.8 per cent in U5MR between 1990 and 2009 – at this rate Africa is not likely to reach the MDG Goal

Sub-Saharan Africa has the highest under-five mortality with one in eight children die before reaching their fifth birthday

Out of the 31 countries recording under-five mortality rate of 100 or more, 30 are in Sub-Saharan Africa

The slow progress toward reduction in child mortality is exacerbated by the high levels of population growth (2.6 per cent annual average between 2000-2009)

Child Mortality – Goal 4

23

50

Live births Under-five deaths

Africa’s burden of under-five deaths in the world 2009

While Africa accounts for about a quarter of world’s live birth, it accounts for half of the all under-five deaths

Child Mortality – Goal 4

Chad 209

DRC 199

Guinea Bissau 193

Sierra Leone 192

Mali 191

Seychelles 12

Mauritius 17

Libya 19

Egypt 21

Tunisia 21

Worst five and best five countries in terms of under-five mortality rate

Child Mortality – Goal 4

Egypt has already achieved the MDG targetSix countries are on course to achieve the

target – Algeria, Cape Verde, Eritrea, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia

Ghana, Namibia, Madagascar, Senegal and Togo have reduced U5MR by at least 33 per cent and likely to achieve the MDG target

Chad: 1990 - 201; 2009 - 209DRC: 1990 -199; 2009 - 199

Child Mortality – Goal 4

68 6377

39 2949

0

20

40

60

80

100

World Sub-Saharan Africa South Asia

% of infant deaths to under five deaths

% of neonatal deaths to under five deaths

Percentage of Infant and neonatal deaths to total under five deaths

Child Mortality – Goal 4

Cause of death of children under age 5 Africa and South East Asia 2005

WHO estimates of the causes of death in children: Lancet

Social Protection as an instrument to accelerate progress toward the MDGs in Africa

Economic growth has not contributed sufficiently to the Economic growth has not contributed sufficiently to the MDGs MDGs

Despite positive growth, African economies are still prone Despite positive growth, African economies are still prone to potential recurring shocks (macro-economic to potential recurring shocks (macro-economic vulnerability, civil conflicts, HIV) and therefore need vulnerability, civil conflicts, HIV) and therefore need institutionalized social protection to minimize negative institutionalized social protection to minimize negative impact and handle falloutsimpact and handle fallouts

Social protection can contribute significantly to most Social protection can contribute significantly to most MDGs: findings from case studies commissioned by ECA on MDGs: findings from case studies commissioned by ECA on Algeria, Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi, Namibia, Nigeria, South Algeria, Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi, Namibia, Nigeria, South Africa and Tunisia illustrate this.Africa and Tunisia illustrate this.

Aggregated impact of social protection interventions on MDGs 1-6

INTERVENTION MDG 1 MDG 2 MDG 3 MDG 4 MDG 5 MDG 6

Cash transfers High High Medium Medium Low Medium

School feeding High High High High Low High

Public works High Low Low Medium Low Low

Farm subsidy High Low Low High Low Medium

Productive Safety Net High High Medium Medium Medium Medium

Non-Contributory Pension High Medium Medium High High High

Way Forward

Focus public interventions on lagging MDGs Focus public interventions on lagging MDGs while consolidating gains in areas of good while consolidating gains in areas of good performanceperformance

Design policies to create employment and Design policies to create employment and significantly reduce povertysignificantly reduce poverty

Prioritize social protection programmes to: Prioritize social protection programmes to: offset the adverse effects of the global offset the adverse effects of the global economic crisis on MDGs; protect the most economic crisis on MDGs; protect the most vulnerable segments of Africa’s population; vulnerable segments of Africa’s population; and support progress on the MDGs.and support progress on the MDGs.

Way Forward

Address data gaps that remain a challenge in Address data gaps that remain a challenge in accurately monitoring progress and ensuring accurately monitoring progress and ensuring evidence-based decision making on the evidence-based decision making on the continentcontinent

ODA and budgetary allocations should be ODA and budgetary allocations should be scaled up, and channeled to country-specific scaled up, and channeled to country-specific MDG prioritiesMDG priorities

The deadline for the MDGs is fast The deadline for the MDGs is fast approaching; it is time to reflect on the post approaching; it is time to reflect on the post 2015 development agenda2015 development agenda

25

Thanks