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Asian Cities beyond Covid-19
• Chris Webster, PhD, DSc(econ)
• Professor of Urban Planning and Development Economics
• Dean, Faculty of Architecture
• The University of Hong Kong
Human clustering in cities
https://www.statista.com/chart/1826/population-growth-in-the-worlds-megacities/
Human clustering in cities
History shows it will always continue
Cities will get bigger
Sometimes they shrink for a while, but then
bounce back
Terminal decline, only if too mono-sectoral or
in wrong place
https://www.statista.com/chart/1826/population-growth-in-the-worlds-megacities/
Technology
• History shows that technology strengthen the attraction of cities
• Technology advances usually lead to reduced friction of distance and this tends to increase production and consumption agglomeration economies
https://www.kelbillet.com/train/trajet/paris-marseille.html
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Big-Bang-Financial-Revolution-Means/dp/0746303890
Post Covidadaptation of cities?
• Cities will not shrink
• Densities will not decrease
• Production will not disperse
• Culture will not disperse
• Infrastructure will make all the above safer
• There will be some adaptation of the spatial economy, but only enhancement of existing trends, eg change of function of city centres
Post Covidadaptation of cities?
• Cities will not shrink
• Densities will not decrease
• Production will not disperse
• Culture will not disperse
• Infrastructure will make all the above safer
• There will be some adaptation of the spatial economy, but only enhancement of existing trends, eg change of function of city centres
Behavioural vs infrastructure response
• Only in the 4th 19th century cholera pandemic was there the start of an infrastructural response, following John Snow’s epidemiological discovery and a paradigm shift from ‘miasma’ to germ theory.
• By the 6th pandemic (1899-1923), London was protected by infrastructure, but 500,000 Russians and 800,000 Indians died.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cholera_outbreaks_and_pandemics#/media/File:Cholera_395.1.jpg
http://blog.rtwilson.com/john-snows-famous-cholera-analysis-data-in-modern-gis-formats/
https://www.immunology.org/john-snows-pump-1854
Adaptive cities will not be cowered by disease
1665, 75,000 25%
1592, 20,000, 13%
1656, 12,000, >50%
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/
mapping-the-worlds-urban-population-in-2050/
http://www.millwall-history.org.uk/Origins-1.htm
Adaptive cities will not be cowered by disease
https://doodles.mountainmath.ca/blog/2019/03/27/density-timelines/
Infrastructural, not spatial, response
• Healthy micro-pods instead of dormitories
• Self-cleansing materials, elevators, PT-surfaces etc
• Social distancing tech
• Env-health monitoring tech
• Individual health care tech
• Resilient city tech: work, shopping, eating, leisure all adapt to hybrid on/off-line
• Most radical change: public transport tech?
• Reprise of the private vehicle
• Pandemic-safe public transport adaptations
City planning – a ‘spatial vaccine’ for infectious or chronic disease risk?
• 2.8M die each year from obesity (WHO)
• Density is protective of obesity
• How would you design a city for healthy density?
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(17)30119-5/fulltext
https://www.e-elgar.com/shop/gbp/healthy-cities-9781781955710.html https://www.niddk.nih.gov/health-information/health-statistics/overweight-obesity
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_human_disease_case_fatality_rates
Disease Case Fatality Rate Total deaths/year
Covid-19 1.4% 204,000 (extra deaths, USA)
Seasonal flu ~1% 12,000 (2011-12) -56,000 (2012-13) (USA)
Bubonic plague 5-60%
SARS 11%
Obesity (BMI>30) ~1% 300,000 (USA annual estimate)
How can ESCAP help secondary cities with poor institutional capacity target healthy-city investment? (beyond public-health behaviour modifying campaigns)
• Sanitary infrastructure upgrade
• Infection-tracing infrastructure
• Microbial-monitoring infrastructure (air, water, public-transport, cash)
• De-densify ultra-high density living (regulation, fiscal, direct-investment)
• Leapfrog healthier pandemic-tech solutions? Eg pods?
http://www.jameslawcybertecture.com/?id=1087§ion=projects
Discuss!
Thank you for your attention