56
www.icis.com 1 Yeow Pei Lin & Trixie Yap Asia Petrochemical Industry Conference General Matter and Raw Materials 20 May 2016 Raffles City Convention Centre, Singapore Asia Olefins & Aromatics Markets – A Turning of the Tide?

Asia Olefins & Aromatics Markets –A Turning of the Tide? · PDF fileBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news, ... Saudi Arabia 1,500 350 LDPE,1,080 solution PEQ2/mid 2016

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Page 1: Asia Olefins & Aromatics Markets –A Turning of the Tide? · PDF fileBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news, ... Saudi Arabia 1,500 350 LDPE,1,080 solution PEQ2/mid 2016

wwwiciscom 1

Yeow Pei Lin amp Trixie Yap

Asia Petrochemical Industry Conference General Matter and Raw Materials20 May 2016Raffles City Convention Centre Singapore

Asia Olefins amp Aromatics Markets ndash A Turning of the Tide

wwwiciscom 2

Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets

Pricing information

- ButadieneC4s- Ethylene

Request your free sample report gtgt

We produce reliable price assessments and analyses covering Asian aromatics and olefins markets including price histories and a 12-month rolling price forecast enabling you to understand price drivers and settle your contract prices more confidently Our pricing coverage includes

- Mixed xylenes

- Propylene- Toluene

Real-time news serviceBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news including updates on plant capacities output and shutdowns

In-depth analysis of ChinaThe comprehensive studies on olefins and aromatics provide credible data and analysis to support your annual sales and strategy planning by giving you all of the following

- Comprehensive market overviews with detailed regional supply data and company profiles for 2013-2017

- In-depth downstream demand analysis and forecasts - Detailed import analysis between 2012-2014

Enquire about the annual studies

Request a free trial

Supply and demand data We give you an end-to-end perspective across the global petrochemical and refinery supply chain enabling you to grasp the local or regional scenario in a global context Data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2030

Request a free demo

- Benzene- Cumene- Paraxylene ndash Orthoxylene- Styrene

wwwiciscom 4Enquire about the scenario study gtgt

wwwiciscom 5wwwiciscom 5

2016 Asia ethylene market review amp outlook

US ethane-based derivative expansions ndash an emerging threat

Agenda

wwwiciscom 6

2016 Asia ethylene market review amp outlook

wwwiciscom 77

Test

Asia ethylene prices surged to over 8-month high in H2 Mar 2016

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 88

Test

NE Asia naphtha-based ethylene margins exceeded $700tonne in Mar full-year outlook

likely to be strong

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 99

Test

Key price drivers Q1 2016

wwwiciscom 1010

Test

Crude recovering after hitting more than 12-year low

wwwiciscom 1111

Test

Downstream prices mostly higher after H1 Feb CNY holiday price gains led by SM

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 1212

SM makersrsquo strong margins supported high ethylene prices

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 1313Source ICIS

Weak margins of most other derivatives capped ethylene price gains towards late Mar

wwwiciscom 1414Source ICIS

Supply crimped by annual cracker turnaround season starting from late FebMar

wwwiciscom 15

Impact of industry consolidation snowballs Asahi Kasei mothballs cracker in 2016

Company Location

C2 capacity losses (lsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream capacity losses(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Cracker closure date

Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Jinshan China 150 Nov 2013

Mitsubishi Chemical Kashima Japan 392 92 LLDPE May 2014

CPC Corp Kaohsiung Taiwan 500 (No 5)SD advanced to Jul 2014 from end 2015

Sumitomo Chemical Chiba Japan 415 425 SM180 PO May 2015

Asahi Kasei Mizushima Japan 500 320 SM Mid Feb 2016

Total C2 capacity losses1957Source Industry

wwwiciscom 16

Production issues curtailed SE Asia supply

Company Location

C2 capacity (lsquo 000 tonnesyr) Operating status

Shell

PulauBukom Singapore Around 960

Shut in late Nov 2015 may restart in Julearly Aug 2016

Chandra AsriCilegonIndonesia 860

Q1 run rates at 50-85 after capacity expansion in Dec 2015

Source Industry

wwwiciscom 1717

Test

Key price drivers Q2-Q4 2016

wwwiciscom 18

Crude oversupply expected to ease in H2 2016

wwwiciscom 1919Source Industry

2016 ethylene production losses from cracker turnarounds largely in Q2-Q3 overall losses down

34 YoY

wwwiciscom 2020Source Industry

Net losses after including +70kta at Asahi-Mitsubishi JV cracker

Output losses higher than 2015 after factoring in Shellrsquos Singapore cracker outage Asahirsquos cracker closure

wwwiciscom 2121Source Industry

Japan becomes structurally tighter

wwwiciscom 2222Source Industry

S Korearsquos exports likely to stabilise at low levels of around 650kt in 2016 after falling for two years

wwwiciscom 2323

End 2015-2016 ethylene capacity expansions in AsiaMideast

Saudi+1800kta

India+3270kta

Iran+2000kta Japan

+70ktaChina+1615kta

Source Industry

Total 9015 kta

Indonesia+260kta

wwwiciscom 2424Source Industry

Cracker expansions concentrated in IndiaMideast mostly integrated

Company Location

C2 capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr) Start-up schedule

Chandra Asri Cilegon Indonesia +260 to 860 Dec 2015Asahi Kasei Mitsubishi Chemical Ethylene Corp Mizushima Japan +70 to 570 1 Apr 2016GAIL Auraiya India 450 400 PE End Feb 2016Brahmaputra Cracker and Polymer Ltd (BCPL) Lepetkata Assam India 220 220 HDPELLDPE End Q1 2016

ONGC Petro Additions (OPaL) Dahej Gujarat India 1100 340 HDPE 720HDPELLDPE Late Q2 2016

Reliance Jamnagar India 1500 750 MEG 550 LLDPE 450 LDPE End 2016

Sadara Chemical Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia 1500 350 LDPE 1080 solution PE Q2mid 2016 at earliest

Petro Rabigh Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia +300 to 1600 150 LDPEEVA 75 EPDM Apr 2016 (cracker only)

Kavian Petrochemical Bushehr Iran 1000Supply to domestic plants via west pipeline H2 20162017

Arvand Petrochemical Gachsaran Iran 1000Feeds own vinyls plants+pipeline customers H2 20162017

Total C27400

wwwiciscom 2525

Expansions in China centred on integrated coal-based projects

Source Industry

Company Location Facility

C2 capacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstreamcapacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr

Start-upschedule

Shenhua Yulin Shenmu Shaanxi MTO 300 300 PE Dec 2015Inner Mongolia ChinaCoal Mengda New Energy amp Chemical Industry

Erdos Inner Mongolia CTO 300

300HDPELLDPE Apr 2016

Shenhua Xinjiang Urumqi Xinjiang CTO 320 320 LDPE Late Q2 2016

Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Golmud Qinghai CTO 160 300 PVC Q3 2016

Fund (Changzhou) Energy amp Chemical Changzhou Jiangsu MTO 165 Q3 2016

Jiangsu Sailboat PetrochemicalLianyungang Jiangsu MTO 370

300 EVALDPE 180 EO 20 MEG Q4 2016

Total C21615 Will supply to Changzhou Dohowrsquos new 300kta SM plant

wwwiciscom 2626Source Industry

More capacity increases at crackers in NESE Asia in 2017

Company Location

C2 capacityadditions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Completion schedule

Korea Petrochemical Industry Co (KPIC)

Onsan South Korea +330 to 800 Mid 2017

Lotte Chemical TitanPasir Gudang Malaysia 90 H1 2017

CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals (CSPC)

Huizhou Guangdong China 1000

150 EO 480 EG400 HDPE 300 LLDPE 700 SM End 20172018

Total C2 1420

wwwiciscom 27Source Industry

Chinarsquos ethylene import demand in 2016 could increase to around 1550-1600kt from 2015rsquos 1516kt

wwwiciscom 2828

Arbitrage amp Mideast cargoes help offset regional supply shortfalls around 500-565kt expected in 2016

Source Industry

Saudi 170-175kt

US 130-140kt

Europe 200-250kt

Projected spot supply excludes term cargoes

wwwiciscom 29

US ethane-based derivative expansions ndash an emerging threat

wwwiciscom 30

Company LocationC2 capacity (rsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream (lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Start-up schedule

Chevron Phillips ChemicalCedar Bayou Texas 1500

500 Bimodal HDPE 500 mLLDPE at Sweeny Mid 2017

Dow Chemical Freeport Texas 1500400 ELITE PE 350 LDPE 320 elastomers 200 EPDM H1 2017

ExxonMobil Chemical Baytown Texas 1500650x2 mLLDPE plus LLDPE at Mont Belvieu H2 2017

Formosa PlasticsPoint Comfort Texas 1590

525 PE unspec 6255 LDPE1000 MEG 20172018

Occidental ChemicalMexichem Ingleside Texas 544 Feed into existing 1050 VCM Q1 2017

SasolLake Charles Louisiana 1500

450 LDPE 450 LLDPE 300EOEG 300 ethoxylatesdetergent alcohols 2018

Total C28134 Total PE 51005

2017-2018 US ethylene amp derivatives projects country to become major PE exporter

Source ICIS Chemical Business

wwwiciscom 31

Chinarsquos PE deficit to continue

wwwiciscom 32wwwiciscom 32

Asia ethylene market to remain tight in 2016

Low-cost US PE exports likely to begin in late 2017 operations of naphtha-based integrated producers in Asia may be impacted

Conclusion

wwwiciscom 33

Asiarsquos toluene and benzene trade flows

wwwiciscom 34

Drivers of Asiarsquos toluene trade flow

wwwiciscom 35wwwiciscom 35

Asiarsquos TOL prices still tracks PX but relationship may weaken on narrower TDP spreads wider toluene-naphtha gap

0

50

100

150

200

250

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

160002

-Jan

-201

422

-Jan

-201

412

-Feb

-201

404

-Mar

-201

424

-Mar

-201

411

-Apr

-201

401

-May

-201

421

-May

-201

410

-Jun

-201

430

-Jun

-201

418

-Jul

-201

407

-Aug

-201

427

-Aug

-201

416

-Sep

-201

406

-Oct

-201

424

-Oct

-201

413

-Nov

-201

403

-Dec

-201

423

-Dec

-201

421

-Jan

-201

510

-Feb

-201

504

-Mar

-201

524

-Mar

-201

513

-Apr

-201

504

-May

-201

522

-May

-201

511

-Jun

-201

501

-Jul

-201

521

-Jul

-201

511

-Aug

-201

531

-Aug

-201

518

-Sep

-201

508

-Oct

-201

528

-Oct

-201

517

-Nov

-201

507

-Dec

-201

504

-Jan

-201

622

-Jan

-201

615

-Feb

-201

604

-Mar

-201

624

-Mar

-201

6

TDP spread (U

SDtonne)

USD

tonn

e

TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Toluene FOB K PX CFR CN

CF 094

CF 095

CF = correlation factor

CF 092

CF= 093

Healthy margins prevailed in 2014 supporting the closer relationship between PX and TOL prices

Margins turned largely negative in 2015 weakening the relationship slightly Strong blend value (BV) of TOL had larger impact on prices

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 36wwwiciscom 36

Wider toluene-naphtha spread since end-2015 increased toluene selling impetus instead of downstream usage allocation

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400Price spread (U

SDtonne)

USD

tonn

e

Toluene-Naphtha spread Naphtha CFR Japan Toluene FOB South Korea

Heavy speculation low Chinese + Indian inventory healthy PX spread led to widened spread in Q1 2016

Price increases supported by start-up of UAC higher usage of TOL for TDP units in addition to summer blending season

Breakeven level

Ave = 230Ave = 170Ave = 170

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 37wwwiciscom 37

TOL heavily placed in blending pool in 2015 capping op rates of downstream TDPs 2016 situation may be reversed

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

USD

tonn

e

Toluene blend value Toluene FOB Korea prices

95-TOL CF= 090

Strong TOL BV in H1 of 2014 results in the price support from gasoline blending strengthening relationship between the two

FOB K prices consistently higher than BV difficult to find demand from blending pool

95-TOL CF= 06895-TOL CF= 090

TOL BV surpasses TOL FOB K making it possible to be placed into blending pool for most of 2015

CF = correlation factorSource ICIS

wwwiciscom 38wwwiciscom 38

Chinese inventories have heavy influence on buying interest Q1 shortage supported sellersrsquo decision to offload more TOL

Ave = 103kt Ave = 903kt Ave = 89kt

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

USD

tonne0

00 to

nnes

east China south China CFR China price Import parity price of CNY cargoes

Strong demand from gasoline blending sector and cargo delays result in 3-year low inventories

Period of strong demand

Previously overbought slow offtake after LNY

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 39

S Korearsquos importexport position for TOL dependent on TDP spreads switch in production strategies in Q1 2016

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

50

100

150

200

25003

-Jan

-201

424

-Jan

-201

414

-Feb

-201

407

-Mar

-201

428

-Mar

-201

418

-Apr

-201

409

-May

-201

430

-May

-201

420

-Jun

-201

411

-Jul

-201

401

-Aug

-201

422

-Aug

-201

412

-Sep

-201

403

-Oct

-201

424

-Oct

-201

414

-Nov

-201

405

-Dec

-201

426

-Dec

-201

423

-Jan

-201

513

-Feb

-201

506

-Mar

-201

527

-Mar

-201

517

-Apr

-201

508

-May

-201

529

-May

-201

519

-Jun

-201

510

-Jul

-201

531

-Jul

-201

521

-Aug

-201

511

-Sep

-201

502

-Oct

-201

523

-Oct

-201

513

-Nov

-201

504

-Dec

-201

525

-Dec

-201

522

-Jan

-201

612

-Feb

-201

604

-Mar

-201

625

-Mar

-201

615

-Apr

-201

6

Qty in lsquo000 tonnes

USD

tonn

e

TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Exports from S Korea Imports to S Korea

Start up of UACrsquos TDP

Slight strategy switch as low Chinese inventories strong naphtha-TOL spread since Q1 leads to stronger TOL selling interest

Overall drop in TDP spreads from mid-2014 results in selling interest switch to net exporter

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 40

Heavier downstream unit turnarounds and production adjustments led to more S Korea-origin exports

H1 2015 H1 2016

0

20

40

60

80

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Qty

in 0

00 to

nnes

South Korea exports

China Taiwan Vietnam US Japan Singapore India Others

Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 13 00Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 00 00 18 00Hyundai Cosmo TDP Daesan 00 00 00 50 200 00S Oil No 2 TDP Onsan 00 00 00 200 00 00

00 00 00 250 231 00Producer LocationLG Chem Daesan 00 00 23 23 00 00YNCC No 1 Yeosu 00 00 00 00 50 50Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 00 00 00 08 63 00Lotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 23 00 00S Oil No 2 Onsan 00 00 124 267 00 00SKGC Incheon 67 00 00 00 00 00

67 00 147 321 113 50

Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)

Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)

Source ICIS

Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 00 87Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 27 00 00 00OCI TDI Kunsan 00 06 00 00 00 00GSCX STDP Yeosu 00 00 00 583 82 00Hanwha Total TDP Daesan 00 00 222 278 00 00SKGC TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 00 49 208LG H D A Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38

38 45 288 899 169 333Producer Location Hanwha Total Daesan 00 00 153 191 00 00GSCX Yeosu 00 00 00 174 49 00Lotte Chem Yeosu 00 00 00 47 16 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 00 78 333YNCC Yeosu 00 00 33 17 00 00

00 00 186 428 143 333

Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)

Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)

wwwiciscom 41wwwiciscom 41

NE Asia and SE Asia exports to China rise since H2 2015 on healthy netbacks strong demand

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

USD

tonne

Qty

in 0

00 to

nnes

Others

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea

Import parity of domesticcargoesFOB South Korea prices

Increase in selling to China because of healthy netbacks weak TDP spread

Narrow gap results in fewer imports in line with FOB K price support from PX

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 42wwwiciscom 42

Exports from Asia to US market sporadic highly dependent on price gap gasoline blending season and Asia demand

0

10

20

30

40

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250Q

ty in 000 tonnesU

SDto

nne

Price gap (Asia prompt vs US forward) Exports from Asia to US

Open arbitrage opportunities result in increase of Asia exports

Consistent upward trend leads to selling interest

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 43wwwiciscom 43

India TOL imports mainly from SE Asia and Iran

46

23

17

37

4

2014

Singapore Thailand Iran S Korea Europe Others

2015

50

24

9

37

7

Source customs data

Total= 288kt Total= 288kt

wwwiciscom 44wwwiciscom 44

NE Asia TOL supply could outstrip demand in H2 2016 on heavier downstream turnarounds permanent shutdowns

H2 2015 H2 2016

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S Oil Onsan old TDP Onsan 00 42 42 00 00 00

00 42 42 00 00 00FCFC Aroma 2 TDP Mailiao 67 200 00 00 00 00

67 200 00 00 00 00JX Nippon Oil TDP Mizushima A 00 00 75 75 00 00

00 00 75 75 00 0067 242 117 75 00 00

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecLotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 73 25 00KPIC Ulsan 00 00 00 83 00 00S Oil No 1 Onsan 00 146 146 00 00 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 167 333 00OCI Yeosu 00 00 00 33 00 00

00 146 146 357 358 00Mitsui Chemicals Chiba 00 00 00 83 83 00JX Nippon Oil Mizushima A 00 00 117 233 00 00Tonen General Wakayama 00 00 00 69 92 00

00 00 117 385 175 00FCFC Aroma No 2 Mailiao 83 250 00 00 00 00CPC No 6 Kaohsiung 40 00 20 80 20 00CPC No3 Kaoshiung 00 00 00 00 83 55

123 250 20 80 103 55123 396 283 822 636 55

Est TOL consumption loss from KR

Est TOL consumption loss from TW

Est TOL production loss from KR

Total est consumption loss from NE Asia

Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia

CONSUMPTION (mt)

PRODUCTION (mt)

Est TOL consumption loss from JPN

Est TOL production loss from JPN

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUlsan Aromatics Center TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 1000 500 00SKGC TDP Incheon 00 00 00 83 42 00LG Chem H D A (shut since Jan) Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38

38 38 38 1122 580 38Taiyo Oil TDP cut rate only Kikuma 42 07 00 00 00 00MSNC TDI (shut since April) Omuta 65 65 65 65 65 65

107 72 65 65 65 65145 110 103 1187 645 103

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSKGC Incheon 00 00 00 133 67 00

00 00 00 133 67 00Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 00 00 108 108 00 00JFEC Chiba 00 00 14 42 00 00

00 00 122 150 00 00CPC No 7 Kaohsiung 00 00 00 27 108 00CPC No 3 Kaohsiung 110 00 00 00 00 00

110 00 00 27 108 00110 00 122 310 175 00

Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia

PRODUCTION (mt)

CONSUMPTION (mt)

Est TOL consumption loss from KR

Est TOL consumption loss from JPNTotal est consumption loss from NE Asia

Est TOL production loss from KR

Est TOL production loss from JPN

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016

Qty

in to

nnes

Total est consumption loss from NE Asia Total est production loss from NE AsiaSource ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45

Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance

Source ICIS

bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016

bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread

bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption

bull Improvements in TOL blend values

bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading

bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer

bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers

bull Other competitively priced blendstocks

bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL

bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China

TOL supply

TOL demand

Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors

wwwiciscom 46

Drivers of benzene trade flow

wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47

-60-40-200204060

500550600650700750800850900

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea

China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016

020000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000180000200000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Tonn

es

Others

MiddleEastThailand

Malaysia

Taiwan

Japan

SouthKorea

China imports

Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand

Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance

Strong appetite for imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48

Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

-

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

Pric

e ($

tonn

e)

Tonn

es

Shore tank inventories

E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity

2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite

Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains

Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49

-80-60-40-20020406080100

500550600650700750800850900950

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15

Tonn

es

OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea

Imports from Asia increase

Imports lower due to higher China prices

S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015

Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates

US imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50

Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600Ja

n-14

Feb-

14M

ar-1

4A

pr-1

4M

ay-1

4Ju

n-14

Jul-1

4A

ug-1

4Se

p-14

Oct

-14

Nov

-14

Dec

-14

Jan-

15Fe

b-15

Mar

-15

Apr

-15

May

-15

Jun-

15Ju

l-15

Aug

-15

Sep-

15O

ct-1

5N

ov-1

5D

ec-1

5Ja

n-16

Feb-

16M

ar-1

6A

pr-1

6

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)Naphtha-Benzene

Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene

$346t $193t $230t

wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51

S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32

Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300

SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15

YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37

2015 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25

S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25

SK Global Chem Incheon 200

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16

OthersTaiwanChinaUS

S Korea exports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52

Outlook increased supply likely to head to China

Source ICIS industry

Company Location BZ Start up period

Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016

Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16

Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos

(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul

Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16

Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16

Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16

Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017

Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex

Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017

Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017

KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017

Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017

Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726

Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322

Product Company Location Capacity(kta)

BZ usage Start up period

SM

Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16

Donghao China 300 240 May-16

Phenol

PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16

Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16

Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17

PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017

Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017

CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17

CPL

Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16

China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16

Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16

MDI

Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017

Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017

Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017

Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972

Consumption within China in 2016 637 655

wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53

Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season

S Korea 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75

BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0

S Korea 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5

KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26

S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13

BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3

Japan 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36

Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12

BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0

Japan 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23

Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24

JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24

BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17

Source ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54

BZ demandBZ supply

bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China

bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ

bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene

bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units

bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher

bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure

bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed

bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand

Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55

Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom

Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom

Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom

Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom

wwwiciscom 56

Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets

Pricing information

- ButadieneC4s- Ethylene

Request your free sample report gtgt

We produce reliable price assessments and analyses covering Asian aromatics and olefins markets including price histories and a 12-month rolling price forecast enabling you to understand price drivers and settle your contract prices more confidently Our pricing coverage includes

- Mixed xylenes

- Propylene- Toluene

Real-time news serviceBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news including updates on plant capacities output and shutdowns

In-depth analysis of ChinaThe comprehensive studies on olefins and aromatics provide credible data and analysis to support your annual sales and strategy planning by giving you all of the following

- Comprehensive market overviews with detailed regional supply data and company profiles for 2013-2017

- In-depth downstream demand analysis and forecasts - Detailed import analysis between 2012-2014

Enquire about the annual studies

Request a free trial

Supply and demand data We give you an end-to-end perspective across the global petrochemical and refinery supply chain enabling you to grasp the local or regional scenario in a global context Data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2030

Request a free demo

- Benzene- Cumene- Paraxylene ndash Orthoxylene- Styrene

wwwiciscom 57

Bringing you faster more effective ways to improve productivity and decision making

Data ExpressAccess manage and analyse data easier than ever before with our Data Express solutions

bull Excel Plug-in - instantly update your worksheets in Excelbull API ndash stream the latest data directly to your systems

Set up email alerts for the most fluid markets to help you stay on top of market movements and enable you to react faster to price changes and other major developments

Market Alerts

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Build chart and track your formulas and keep them all in one place using real-time pricing data via the ICIS Dashboard

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Page 2: Asia Olefins & Aromatics Markets –A Turning of the Tide? · PDF fileBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news, ... Saudi Arabia 1,500 350 LDPE,1,080 solution PEQ2/mid 2016

wwwiciscom 2

Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets

Pricing information

- ButadieneC4s- Ethylene

Request your free sample report gtgt

We produce reliable price assessments and analyses covering Asian aromatics and olefins markets including price histories and a 12-month rolling price forecast enabling you to understand price drivers and settle your contract prices more confidently Our pricing coverage includes

- Mixed xylenes

- Propylene- Toluene

Real-time news serviceBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news including updates on plant capacities output and shutdowns

In-depth analysis of ChinaThe comprehensive studies on olefins and aromatics provide credible data and analysis to support your annual sales and strategy planning by giving you all of the following

- Comprehensive market overviews with detailed regional supply data and company profiles for 2013-2017

- In-depth downstream demand analysis and forecasts - Detailed import analysis between 2012-2014

Enquire about the annual studies

Request a free trial

Supply and demand data We give you an end-to-end perspective across the global petrochemical and refinery supply chain enabling you to grasp the local or regional scenario in a global context Data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2030

Request a free demo

- Benzene- Cumene- Paraxylene ndash Orthoxylene- Styrene

wwwiciscom 4Enquire about the scenario study gtgt

wwwiciscom 5wwwiciscom 5

2016 Asia ethylene market review amp outlook

US ethane-based derivative expansions ndash an emerging threat

Agenda

wwwiciscom 6

2016 Asia ethylene market review amp outlook

wwwiciscom 77

Test

Asia ethylene prices surged to over 8-month high in H2 Mar 2016

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 88

Test

NE Asia naphtha-based ethylene margins exceeded $700tonne in Mar full-year outlook

likely to be strong

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 99

Test

Key price drivers Q1 2016

wwwiciscom 1010

Test

Crude recovering after hitting more than 12-year low

wwwiciscom 1111

Test

Downstream prices mostly higher after H1 Feb CNY holiday price gains led by SM

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 1212

SM makersrsquo strong margins supported high ethylene prices

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 1313Source ICIS

Weak margins of most other derivatives capped ethylene price gains towards late Mar

wwwiciscom 1414Source ICIS

Supply crimped by annual cracker turnaround season starting from late FebMar

wwwiciscom 15

Impact of industry consolidation snowballs Asahi Kasei mothballs cracker in 2016

Company Location

C2 capacity losses (lsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream capacity losses(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Cracker closure date

Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Jinshan China 150 Nov 2013

Mitsubishi Chemical Kashima Japan 392 92 LLDPE May 2014

CPC Corp Kaohsiung Taiwan 500 (No 5)SD advanced to Jul 2014 from end 2015

Sumitomo Chemical Chiba Japan 415 425 SM180 PO May 2015

Asahi Kasei Mizushima Japan 500 320 SM Mid Feb 2016

Total C2 capacity losses1957Source Industry

wwwiciscom 16

Production issues curtailed SE Asia supply

Company Location

C2 capacity (lsquo 000 tonnesyr) Operating status

Shell

PulauBukom Singapore Around 960

Shut in late Nov 2015 may restart in Julearly Aug 2016

Chandra AsriCilegonIndonesia 860

Q1 run rates at 50-85 after capacity expansion in Dec 2015

Source Industry

wwwiciscom 1717

Test

Key price drivers Q2-Q4 2016

wwwiciscom 18

Crude oversupply expected to ease in H2 2016

wwwiciscom 1919Source Industry

2016 ethylene production losses from cracker turnarounds largely in Q2-Q3 overall losses down

34 YoY

wwwiciscom 2020Source Industry

Net losses after including +70kta at Asahi-Mitsubishi JV cracker

Output losses higher than 2015 after factoring in Shellrsquos Singapore cracker outage Asahirsquos cracker closure

wwwiciscom 2121Source Industry

Japan becomes structurally tighter

wwwiciscom 2222Source Industry

S Korearsquos exports likely to stabilise at low levels of around 650kt in 2016 after falling for two years

wwwiciscom 2323

End 2015-2016 ethylene capacity expansions in AsiaMideast

Saudi+1800kta

India+3270kta

Iran+2000kta Japan

+70ktaChina+1615kta

Source Industry

Total 9015 kta

Indonesia+260kta

wwwiciscom 2424Source Industry

Cracker expansions concentrated in IndiaMideast mostly integrated

Company Location

C2 capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr) Start-up schedule

Chandra Asri Cilegon Indonesia +260 to 860 Dec 2015Asahi Kasei Mitsubishi Chemical Ethylene Corp Mizushima Japan +70 to 570 1 Apr 2016GAIL Auraiya India 450 400 PE End Feb 2016Brahmaputra Cracker and Polymer Ltd (BCPL) Lepetkata Assam India 220 220 HDPELLDPE End Q1 2016

ONGC Petro Additions (OPaL) Dahej Gujarat India 1100 340 HDPE 720HDPELLDPE Late Q2 2016

Reliance Jamnagar India 1500 750 MEG 550 LLDPE 450 LDPE End 2016

Sadara Chemical Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia 1500 350 LDPE 1080 solution PE Q2mid 2016 at earliest

Petro Rabigh Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia +300 to 1600 150 LDPEEVA 75 EPDM Apr 2016 (cracker only)

Kavian Petrochemical Bushehr Iran 1000Supply to domestic plants via west pipeline H2 20162017

Arvand Petrochemical Gachsaran Iran 1000Feeds own vinyls plants+pipeline customers H2 20162017

Total C27400

wwwiciscom 2525

Expansions in China centred on integrated coal-based projects

Source Industry

Company Location Facility

C2 capacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstreamcapacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr

Start-upschedule

Shenhua Yulin Shenmu Shaanxi MTO 300 300 PE Dec 2015Inner Mongolia ChinaCoal Mengda New Energy amp Chemical Industry

Erdos Inner Mongolia CTO 300

300HDPELLDPE Apr 2016

Shenhua Xinjiang Urumqi Xinjiang CTO 320 320 LDPE Late Q2 2016

Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Golmud Qinghai CTO 160 300 PVC Q3 2016

Fund (Changzhou) Energy amp Chemical Changzhou Jiangsu MTO 165 Q3 2016

Jiangsu Sailboat PetrochemicalLianyungang Jiangsu MTO 370

300 EVALDPE 180 EO 20 MEG Q4 2016

Total C21615 Will supply to Changzhou Dohowrsquos new 300kta SM plant

wwwiciscom 2626Source Industry

More capacity increases at crackers in NESE Asia in 2017

Company Location

C2 capacityadditions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Completion schedule

Korea Petrochemical Industry Co (KPIC)

Onsan South Korea +330 to 800 Mid 2017

Lotte Chemical TitanPasir Gudang Malaysia 90 H1 2017

CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals (CSPC)

Huizhou Guangdong China 1000

150 EO 480 EG400 HDPE 300 LLDPE 700 SM End 20172018

Total C2 1420

wwwiciscom 27Source Industry

Chinarsquos ethylene import demand in 2016 could increase to around 1550-1600kt from 2015rsquos 1516kt

wwwiciscom 2828

Arbitrage amp Mideast cargoes help offset regional supply shortfalls around 500-565kt expected in 2016

Source Industry

Saudi 170-175kt

US 130-140kt

Europe 200-250kt

Projected spot supply excludes term cargoes

wwwiciscom 29

US ethane-based derivative expansions ndash an emerging threat

wwwiciscom 30

Company LocationC2 capacity (rsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream (lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Start-up schedule

Chevron Phillips ChemicalCedar Bayou Texas 1500

500 Bimodal HDPE 500 mLLDPE at Sweeny Mid 2017

Dow Chemical Freeport Texas 1500400 ELITE PE 350 LDPE 320 elastomers 200 EPDM H1 2017

ExxonMobil Chemical Baytown Texas 1500650x2 mLLDPE plus LLDPE at Mont Belvieu H2 2017

Formosa PlasticsPoint Comfort Texas 1590

525 PE unspec 6255 LDPE1000 MEG 20172018

Occidental ChemicalMexichem Ingleside Texas 544 Feed into existing 1050 VCM Q1 2017

SasolLake Charles Louisiana 1500

450 LDPE 450 LLDPE 300EOEG 300 ethoxylatesdetergent alcohols 2018

Total C28134 Total PE 51005

2017-2018 US ethylene amp derivatives projects country to become major PE exporter

Source ICIS Chemical Business

wwwiciscom 31

Chinarsquos PE deficit to continue

wwwiciscom 32wwwiciscom 32

Asia ethylene market to remain tight in 2016

Low-cost US PE exports likely to begin in late 2017 operations of naphtha-based integrated producers in Asia may be impacted

Conclusion

wwwiciscom 33

Asiarsquos toluene and benzene trade flows

wwwiciscom 34

Drivers of Asiarsquos toluene trade flow

wwwiciscom 35wwwiciscom 35

Asiarsquos TOL prices still tracks PX but relationship may weaken on narrower TDP spreads wider toluene-naphtha gap

0

50

100

150

200

250

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

160002

-Jan

-201

422

-Jan

-201

412

-Feb

-201

404

-Mar

-201

424

-Mar

-201

411

-Apr

-201

401

-May

-201

421

-May

-201

410

-Jun

-201

430

-Jun

-201

418

-Jul

-201

407

-Aug

-201

427

-Aug

-201

416

-Sep

-201

406

-Oct

-201

424

-Oct

-201

413

-Nov

-201

403

-Dec

-201

423

-Dec

-201

421

-Jan

-201

510

-Feb

-201

504

-Mar

-201

524

-Mar

-201

513

-Apr

-201

504

-May

-201

522

-May

-201

511

-Jun

-201

501

-Jul

-201

521

-Jul

-201

511

-Aug

-201

531

-Aug

-201

518

-Sep

-201

508

-Oct

-201

528

-Oct

-201

517

-Nov

-201

507

-Dec

-201

504

-Jan

-201

622

-Jan

-201

615

-Feb

-201

604

-Mar

-201

624

-Mar

-201

6

TDP spread (U

SDtonne)

USD

tonn

e

TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Toluene FOB K PX CFR CN

CF 094

CF 095

CF = correlation factor

CF 092

CF= 093

Healthy margins prevailed in 2014 supporting the closer relationship between PX and TOL prices

Margins turned largely negative in 2015 weakening the relationship slightly Strong blend value (BV) of TOL had larger impact on prices

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 36wwwiciscom 36

Wider toluene-naphtha spread since end-2015 increased toluene selling impetus instead of downstream usage allocation

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400Price spread (U

SDtonne)

USD

tonn

e

Toluene-Naphtha spread Naphtha CFR Japan Toluene FOB South Korea

Heavy speculation low Chinese + Indian inventory healthy PX spread led to widened spread in Q1 2016

Price increases supported by start-up of UAC higher usage of TOL for TDP units in addition to summer blending season

Breakeven level

Ave = 230Ave = 170Ave = 170

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 37wwwiciscom 37

TOL heavily placed in blending pool in 2015 capping op rates of downstream TDPs 2016 situation may be reversed

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

USD

tonn

e

Toluene blend value Toluene FOB Korea prices

95-TOL CF= 090

Strong TOL BV in H1 of 2014 results in the price support from gasoline blending strengthening relationship between the two

FOB K prices consistently higher than BV difficult to find demand from blending pool

95-TOL CF= 06895-TOL CF= 090

TOL BV surpasses TOL FOB K making it possible to be placed into blending pool for most of 2015

CF = correlation factorSource ICIS

wwwiciscom 38wwwiciscom 38

Chinese inventories have heavy influence on buying interest Q1 shortage supported sellersrsquo decision to offload more TOL

Ave = 103kt Ave = 903kt Ave = 89kt

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

USD

tonne0

00 to

nnes

east China south China CFR China price Import parity price of CNY cargoes

Strong demand from gasoline blending sector and cargo delays result in 3-year low inventories

Period of strong demand

Previously overbought slow offtake after LNY

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 39

S Korearsquos importexport position for TOL dependent on TDP spreads switch in production strategies in Q1 2016

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

50

100

150

200

25003

-Jan

-201

424

-Jan

-201

414

-Feb

-201

407

-Mar

-201

428

-Mar

-201

418

-Apr

-201

409

-May

-201

430

-May

-201

420

-Jun

-201

411

-Jul

-201

401

-Aug

-201

422

-Aug

-201

412

-Sep

-201

403

-Oct

-201

424

-Oct

-201

414

-Nov

-201

405

-Dec

-201

426

-Dec

-201

423

-Jan

-201

513

-Feb

-201

506

-Mar

-201

527

-Mar

-201

517

-Apr

-201

508

-May

-201

529

-May

-201

519

-Jun

-201

510

-Jul

-201

531

-Jul

-201

521

-Aug

-201

511

-Sep

-201

502

-Oct

-201

523

-Oct

-201

513

-Nov

-201

504

-Dec

-201

525

-Dec

-201

522

-Jan

-201

612

-Feb

-201

604

-Mar

-201

625

-Mar

-201

615

-Apr

-201

6

Qty in lsquo000 tonnes

USD

tonn

e

TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Exports from S Korea Imports to S Korea

Start up of UACrsquos TDP

Slight strategy switch as low Chinese inventories strong naphtha-TOL spread since Q1 leads to stronger TOL selling interest

Overall drop in TDP spreads from mid-2014 results in selling interest switch to net exporter

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 40

Heavier downstream unit turnarounds and production adjustments led to more S Korea-origin exports

H1 2015 H1 2016

0

20

40

60

80

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Qty

in 0

00 to

nnes

South Korea exports

China Taiwan Vietnam US Japan Singapore India Others

Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 13 00Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 00 00 18 00Hyundai Cosmo TDP Daesan 00 00 00 50 200 00S Oil No 2 TDP Onsan 00 00 00 200 00 00

00 00 00 250 231 00Producer LocationLG Chem Daesan 00 00 23 23 00 00YNCC No 1 Yeosu 00 00 00 00 50 50Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 00 00 00 08 63 00Lotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 23 00 00S Oil No 2 Onsan 00 00 124 267 00 00SKGC Incheon 67 00 00 00 00 00

67 00 147 321 113 50

Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)

Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)

Source ICIS

Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 00 87Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 27 00 00 00OCI TDI Kunsan 00 06 00 00 00 00GSCX STDP Yeosu 00 00 00 583 82 00Hanwha Total TDP Daesan 00 00 222 278 00 00SKGC TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 00 49 208LG H D A Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38

38 45 288 899 169 333Producer Location Hanwha Total Daesan 00 00 153 191 00 00GSCX Yeosu 00 00 00 174 49 00Lotte Chem Yeosu 00 00 00 47 16 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 00 78 333YNCC Yeosu 00 00 33 17 00 00

00 00 186 428 143 333

Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)

Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)

wwwiciscom 41wwwiciscom 41

NE Asia and SE Asia exports to China rise since H2 2015 on healthy netbacks strong demand

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

USD

tonne

Qty

in 0

00 to

nnes

Others

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea

Import parity of domesticcargoesFOB South Korea prices

Increase in selling to China because of healthy netbacks weak TDP spread

Narrow gap results in fewer imports in line with FOB K price support from PX

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 42wwwiciscom 42

Exports from Asia to US market sporadic highly dependent on price gap gasoline blending season and Asia demand

0

10

20

30

40

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250Q

ty in 000 tonnesU

SDto

nne

Price gap (Asia prompt vs US forward) Exports from Asia to US

Open arbitrage opportunities result in increase of Asia exports

Consistent upward trend leads to selling interest

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 43wwwiciscom 43

India TOL imports mainly from SE Asia and Iran

46

23

17

37

4

2014

Singapore Thailand Iran S Korea Europe Others

2015

50

24

9

37

7

Source customs data

Total= 288kt Total= 288kt

wwwiciscom 44wwwiciscom 44

NE Asia TOL supply could outstrip demand in H2 2016 on heavier downstream turnarounds permanent shutdowns

H2 2015 H2 2016

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S Oil Onsan old TDP Onsan 00 42 42 00 00 00

00 42 42 00 00 00FCFC Aroma 2 TDP Mailiao 67 200 00 00 00 00

67 200 00 00 00 00JX Nippon Oil TDP Mizushima A 00 00 75 75 00 00

00 00 75 75 00 0067 242 117 75 00 00

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecLotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 73 25 00KPIC Ulsan 00 00 00 83 00 00S Oil No 1 Onsan 00 146 146 00 00 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 167 333 00OCI Yeosu 00 00 00 33 00 00

00 146 146 357 358 00Mitsui Chemicals Chiba 00 00 00 83 83 00JX Nippon Oil Mizushima A 00 00 117 233 00 00Tonen General Wakayama 00 00 00 69 92 00

00 00 117 385 175 00FCFC Aroma No 2 Mailiao 83 250 00 00 00 00CPC No 6 Kaohsiung 40 00 20 80 20 00CPC No3 Kaoshiung 00 00 00 00 83 55

123 250 20 80 103 55123 396 283 822 636 55

Est TOL consumption loss from KR

Est TOL consumption loss from TW

Est TOL production loss from KR

Total est consumption loss from NE Asia

Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia

CONSUMPTION (mt)

PRODUCTION (mt)

Est TOL consumption loss from JPN

Est TOL production loss from JPN

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUlsan Aromatics Center TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 1000 500 00SKGC TDP Incheon 00 00 00 83 42 00LG Chem H D A (shut since Jan) Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38

38 38 38 1122 580 38Taiyo Oil TDP cut rate only Kikuma 42 07 00 00 00 00MSNC TDI (shut since April) Omuta 65 65 65 65 65 65

107 72 65 65 65 65145 110 103 1187 645 103

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSKGC Incheon 00 00 00 133 67 00

00 00 00 133 67 00Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 00 00 108 108 00 00JFEC Chiba 00 00 14 42 00 00

00 00 122 150 00 00CPC No 7 Kaohsiung 00 00 00 27 108 00CPC No 3 Kaohsiung 110 00 00 00 00 00

110 00 00 27 108 00110 00 122 310 175 00

Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia

PRODUCTION (mt)

CONSUMPTION (mt)

Est TOL consumption loss from KR

Est TOL consumption loss from JPNTotal est consumption loss from NE Asia

Est TOL production loss from KR

Est TOL production loss from JPN

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016

Qty

in to

nnes

Total est consumption loss from NE Asia Total est production loss from NE AsiaSource ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45

Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance

Source ICIS

bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016

bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread

bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption

bull Improvements in TOL blend values

bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading

bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer

bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers

bull Other competitively priced blendstocks

bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL

bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China

TOL supply

TOL demand

Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors

wwwiciscom 46

Drivers of benzene trade flow

wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47

-60-40-200204060

500550600650700750800850900

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea

China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016

020000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000180000200000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Tonn

es

Others

MiddleEastThailand

Malaysia

Taiwan

Japan

SouthKorea

China imports

Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand

Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance

Strong appetite for imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48

Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

-

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

Pric

e ($

tonn

e)

Tonn

es

Shore tank inventories

E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity

2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite

Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains

Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49

-80-60-40-20020406080100

500550600650700750800850900950

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15

Tonn

es

OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea

Imports from Asia increase

Imports lower due to higher China prices

S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015

Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates

US imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50

Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600Ja

n-14

Feb-

14M

ar-1

4A

pr-1

4M

ay-1

4Ju

n-14

Jul-1

4A

ug-1

4Se

p-14

Oct

-14

Nov

-14

Dec

-14

Jan-

15Fe

b-15

Mar

-15

Apr

-15

May

-15

Jun-

15Ju

l-15

Aug

-15

Sep-

15O

ct-1

5N

ov-1

5D

ec-1

5Ja

n-16

Feb-

16M

ar-1

6A

pr-1

6

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)Naphtha-Benzene

Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene

$346t $193t $230t

wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51

S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32

Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300

SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15

YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37

2015 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25

S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25

SK Global Chem Incheon 200

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16

OthersTaiwanChinaUS

S Korea exports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52

Outlook increased supply likely to head to China

Source ICIS industry

Company Location BZ Start up period

Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016

Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16

Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos

(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul

Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16

Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16

Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16

Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017

Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex

Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017

Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017

KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017

Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017

Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726

Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322

Product Company Location Capacity(kta)

BZ usage Start up period

SM

Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16

Donghao China 300 240 May-16

Phenol

PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16

Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16

Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17

PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017

Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017

CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17

CPL

Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16

China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16

Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16

MDI

Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017

Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017

Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017

Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972

Consumption within China in 2016 637 655

wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53

Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season

S Korea 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75

BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0

S Korea 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5

KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26

S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13

BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3

Japan 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36

Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12

BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0

Japan 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23

Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24

JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24

BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17

Source ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54

BZ demandBZ supply

bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China

bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ

bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene

bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units

bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher

bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure

bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed

bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand

Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55

Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom

Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom

Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom

Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom

wwwiciscom 56

Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets

Pricing information

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wwwiciscom 57

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Page 3: Asia Olefins & Aromatics Markets –A Turning of the Tide? · PDF fileBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news, ... Saudi Arabia 1,500 350 LDPE,1,080 solution PEQ2/mid 2016

wwwiciscom 4Enquire about the scenario study gtgt

wwwiciscom 5wwwiciscom 5

2016 Asia ethylene market review amp outlook

US ethane-based derivative expansions ndash an emerging threat

Agenda

wwwiciscom 6

2016 Asia ethylene market review amp outlook

wwwiciscom 77

Test

Asia ethylene prices surged to over 8-month high in H2 Mar 2016

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 88

Test

NE Asia naphtha-based ethylene margins exceeded $700tonne in Mar full-year outlook

likely to be strong

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 99

Test

Key price drivers Q1 2016

wwwiciscom 1010

Test

Crude recovering after hitting more than 12-year low

wwwiciscom 1111

Test

Downstream prices mostly higher after H1 Feb CNY holiday price gains led by SM

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 1212

SM makersrsquo strong margins supported high ethylene prices

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 1313Source ICIS

Weak margins of most other derivatives capped ethylene price gains towards late Mar

wwwiciscom 1414Source ICIS

Supply crimped by annual cracker turnaround season starting from late FebMar

wwwiciscom 15

Impact of industry consolidation snowballs Asahi Kasei mothballs cracker in 2016

Company Location

C2 capacity losses (lsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream capacity losses(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Cracker closure date

Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Jinshan China 150 Nov 2013

Mitsubishi Chemical Kashima Japan 392 92 LLDPE May 2014

CPC Corp Kaohsiung Taiwan 500 (No 5)SD advanced to Jul 2014 from end 2015

Sumitomo Chemical Chiba Japan 415 425 SM180 PO May 2015

Asahi Kasei Mizushima Japan 500 320 SM Mid Feb 2016

Total C2 capacity losses1957Source Industry

wwwiciscom 16

Production issues curtailed SE Asia supply

Company Location

C2 capacity (lsquo 000 tonnesyr) Operating status

Shell

PulauBukom Singapore Around 960

Shut in late Nov 2015 may restart in Julearly Aug 2016

Chandra AsriCilegonIndonesia 860

Q1 run rates at 50-85 after capacity expansion in Dec 2015

Source Industry

wwwiciscom 1717

Test

Key price drivers Q2-Q4 2016

wwwiciscom 18

Crude oversupply expected to ease in H2 2016

wwwiciscom 1919Source Industry

2016 ethylene production losses from cracker turnarounds largely in Q2-Q3 overall losses down

34 YoY

wwwiciscom 2020Source Industry

Net losses after including +70kta at Asahi-Mitsubishi JV cracker

Output losses higher than 2015 after factoring in Shellrsquos Singapore cracker outage Asahirsquos cracker closure

wwwiciscom 2121Source Industry

Japan becomes structurally tighter

wwwiciscom 2222Source Industry

S Korearsquos exports likely to stabilise at low levels of around 650kt in 2016 after falling for two years

wwwiciscom 2323

End 2015-2016 ethylene capacity expansions in AsiaMideast

Saudi+1800kta

India+3270kta

Iran+2000kta Japan

+70ktaChina+1615kta

Source Industry

Total 9015 kta

Indonesia+260kta

wwwiciscom 2424Source Industry

Cracker expansions concentrated in IndiaMideast mostly integrated

Company Location

C2 capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr) Start-up schedule

Chandra Asri Cilegon Indonesia +260 to 860 Dec 2015Asahi Kasei Mitsubishi Chemical Ethylene Corp Mizushima Japan +70 to 570 1 Apr 2016GAIL Auraiya India 450 400 PE End Feb 2016Brahmaputra Cracker and Polymer Ltd (BCPL) Lepetkata Assam India 220 220 HDPELLDPE End Q1 2016

ONGC Petro Additions (OPaL) Dahej Gujarat India 1100 340 HDPE 720HDPELLDPE Late Q2 2016

Reliance Jamnagar India 1500 750 MEG 550 LLDPE 450 LDPE End 2016

Sadara Chemical Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia 1500 350 LDPE 1080 solution PE Q2mid 2016 at earliest

Petro Rabigh Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia +300 to 1600 150 LDPEEVA 75 EPDM Apr 2016 (cracker only)

Kavian Petrochemical Bushehr Iran 1000Supply to domestic plants via west pipeline H2 20162017

Arvand Petrochemical Gachsaran Iran 1000Feeds own vinyls plants+pipeline customers H2 20162017

Total C27400

wwwiciscom 2525

Expansions in China centred on integrated coal-based projects

Source Industry

Company Location Facility

C2 capacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstreamcapacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr

Start-upschedule

Shenhua Yulin Shenmu Shaanxi MTO 300 300 PE Dec 2015Inner Mongolia ChinaCoal Mengda New Energy amp Chemical Industry

Erdos Inner Mongolia CTO 300

300HDPELLDPE Apr 2016

Shenhua Xinjiang Urumqi Xinjiang CTO 320 320 LDPE Late Q2 2016

Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Golmud Qinghai CTO 160 300 PVC Q3 2016

Fund (Changzhou) Energy amp Chemical Changzhou Jiangsu MTO 165 Q3 2016

Jiangsu Sailboat PetrochemicalLianyungang Jiangsu MTO 370

300 EVALDPE 180 EO 20 MEG Q4 2016

Total C21615 Will supply to Changzhou Dohowrsquos new 300kta SM plant

wwwiciscom 2626Source Industry

More capacity increases at crackers in NESE Asia in 2017

Company Location

C2 capacityadditions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Completion schedule

Korea Petrochemical Industry Co (KPIC)

Onsan South Korea +330 to 800 Mid 2017

Lotte Chemical TitanPasir Gudang Malaysia 90 H1 2017

CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals (CSPC)

Huizhou Guangdong China 1000

150 EO 480 EG400 HDPE 300 LLDPE 700 SM End 20172018

Total C2 1420

wwwiciscom 27Source Industry

Chinarsquos ethylene import demand in 2016 could increase to around 1550-1600kt from 2015rsquos 1516kt

wwwiciscom 2828

Arbitrage amp Mideast cargoes help offset regional supply shortfalls around 500-565kt expected in 2016

Source Industry

Saudi 170-175kt

US 130-140kt

Europe 200-250kt

Projected spot supply excludes term cargoes

wwwiciscom 29

US ethane-based derivative expansions ndash an emerging threat

wwwiciscom 30

Company LocationC2 capacity (rsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream (lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Start-up schedule

Chevron Phillips ChemicalCedar Bayou Texas 1500

500 Bimodal HDPE 500 mLLDPE at Sweeny Mid 2017

Dow Chemical Freeport Texas 1500400 ELITE PE 350 LDPE 320 elastomers 200 EPDM H1 2017

ExxonMobil Chemical Baytown Texas 1500650x2 mLLDPE plus LLDPE at Mont Belvieu H2 2017

Formosa PlasticsPoint Comfort Texas 1590

525 PE unspec 6255 LDPE1000 MEG 20172018

Occidental ChemicalMexichem Ingleside Texas 544 Feed into existing 1050 VCM Q1 2017

SasolLake Charles Louisiana 1500

450 LDPE 450 LLDPE 300EOEG 300 ethoxylatesdetergent alcohols 2018

Total C28134 Total PE 51005

2017-2018 US ethylene amp derivatives projects country to become major PE exporter

Source ICIS Chemical Business

wwwiciscom 31

Chinarsquos PE deficit to continue

wwwiciscom 32wwwiciscom 32

Asia ethylene market to remain tight in 2016

Low-cost US PE exports likely to begin in late 2017 operations of naphtha-based integrated producers in Asia may be impacted

Conclusion

wwwiciscom 33

Asiarsquos toluene and benzene trade flows

wwwiciscom 34

Drivers of Asiarsquos toluene trade flow

wwwiciscom 35wwwiciscom 35

Asiarsquos TOL prices still tracks PX but relationship may weaken on narrower TDP spreads wider toluene-naphtha gap

0

50

100

150

200

250

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

160002

-Jan

-201

422

-Jan

-201

412

-Feb

-201

404

-Mar

-201

424

-Mar

-201

411

-Apr

-201

401

-May

-201

421

-May

-201

410

-Jun

-201

430

-Jun

-201

418

-Jul

-201

407

-Aug

-201

427

-Aug

-201

416

-Sep

-201

406

-Oct

-201

424

-Oct

-201

413

-Nov

-201

403

-Dec

-201

423

-Dec

-201

421

-Jan

-201

510

-Feb

-201

504

-Mar

-201

524

-Mar

-201

513

-Apr

-201

504

-May

-201

522

-May

-201

511

-Jun

-201

501

-Jul

-201

521

-Jul

-201

511

-Aug

-201

531

-Aug

-201

518

-Sep

-201

508

-Oct

-201

528

-Oct

-201

517

-Nov

-201

507

-Dec

-201

504

-Jan

-201

622

-Jan

-201

615

-Feb

-201

604

-Mar

-201

624

-Mar

-201

6

TDP spread (U

SDtonne)

USD

tonn

e

TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Toluene FOB K PX CFR CN

CF 094

CF 095

CF = correlation factor

CF 092

CF= 093

Healthy margins prevailed in 2014 supporting the closer relationship between PX and TOL prices

Margins turned largely negative in 2015 weakening the relationship slightly Strong blend value (BV) of TOL had larger impact on prices

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 36wwwiciscom 36

Wider toluene-naphtha spread since end-2015 increased toluene selling impetus instead of downstream usage allocation

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400Price spread (U

SDtonne)

USD

tonn

e

Toluene-Naphtha spread Naphtha CFR Japan Toluene FOB South Korea

Heavy speculation low Chinese + Indian inventory healthy PX spread led to widened spread in Q1 2016

Price increases supported by start-up of UAC higher usage of TOL for TDP units in addition to summer blending season

Breakeven level

Ave = 230Ave = 170Ave = 170

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 37wwwiciscom 37

TOL heavily placed in blending pool in 2015 capping op rates of downstream TDPs 2016 situation may be reversed

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

USD

tonn

e

Toluene blend value Toluene FOB Korea prices

95-TOL CF= 090

Strong TOL BV in H1 of 2014 results in the price support from gasoline blending strengthening relationship between the two

FOB K prices consistently higher than BV difficult to find demand from blending pool

95-TOL CF= 06895-TOL CF= 090

TOL BV surpasses TOL FOB K making it possible to be placed into blending pool for most of 2015

CF = correlation factorSource ICIS

wwwiciscom 38wwwiciscom 38

Chinese inventories have heavy influence on buying interest Q1 shortage supported sellersrsquo decision to offload more TOL

Ave = 103kt Ave = 903kt Ave = 89kt

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

USD

tonne0

00 to

nnes

east China south China CFR China price Import parity price of CNY cargoes

Strong demand from gasoline blending sector and cargo delays result in 3-year low inventories

Period of strong demand

Previously overbought slow offtake after LNY

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 39

S Korearsquos importexport position for TOL dependent on TDP spreads switch in production strategies in Q1 2016

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

50

100

150

200

25003

-Jan

-201

424

-Jan

-201

414

-Feb

-201

407

-Mar

-201

428

-Mar

-201

418

-Apr

-201

409

-May

-201

430

-May

-201

420

-Jun

-201

411

-Jul

-201

401

-Aug

-201

422

-Aug

-201

412

-Sep

-201

403

-Oct

-201

424

-Oct

-201

414

-Nov

-201

405

-Dec

-201

426

-Dec

-201

423

-Jan

-201

513

-Feb

-201

506

-Mar

-201

527

-Mar

-201

517

-Apr

-201

508

-May

-201

529

-May

-201

519

-Jun

-201

510

-Jul

-201

531

-Jul

-201

521

-Aug

-201

511

-Sep

-201

502

-Oct

-201

523

-Oct

-201

513

-Nov

-201

504

-Dec

-201

525

-Dec

-201

522

-Jan

-201

612

-Feb

-201

604

-Mar

-201

625

-Mar

-201

615

-Apr

-201

6

Qty in lsquo000 tonnes

USD

tonn

e

TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Exports from S Korea Imports to S Korea

Start up of UACrsquos TDP

Slight strategy switch as low Chinese inventories strong naphtha-TOL spread since Q1 leads to stronger TOL selling interest

Overall drop in TDP spreads from mid-2014 results in selling interest switch to net exporter

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 40

Heavier downstream unit turnarounds and production adjustments led to more S Korea-origin exports

H1 2015 H1 2016

0

20

40

60

80

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Qty

in 0

00 to

nnes

South Korea exports

China Taiwan Vietnam US Japan Singapore India Others

Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 13 00Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 00 00 18 00Hyundai Cosmo TDP Daesan 00 00 00 50 200 00S Oil No 2 TDP Onsan 00 00 00 200 00 00

00 00 00 250 231 00Producer LocationLG Chem Daesan 00 00 23 23 00 00YNCC No 1 Yeosu 00 00 00 00 50 50Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 00 00 00 08 63 00Lotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 23 00 00S Oil No 2 Onsan 00 00 124 267 00 00SKGC Incheon 67 00 00 00 00 00

67 00 147 321 113 50

Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)

Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)

Source ICIS

Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 00 87Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 27 00 00 00OCI TDI Kunsan 00 06 00 00 00 00GSCX STDP Yeosu 00 00 00 583 82 00Hanwha Total TDP Daesan 00 00 222 278 00 00SKGC TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 00 49 208LG H D A Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38

38 45 288 899 169 333Producer Location Hanwha Total Daesan 00 00 153 191 00 00GSCX Yeosu 00 00 00 174 49 00Lotte Chem Yeosu 00 00 00 47 16 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 00 78 333YNCC Yeosu 00 00 33 17 00 00

00 00 186 428 143 333

Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)

Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)

wwwiciscom 41wwwiciscom 41

NE Asia and SE Asia exports to China rise since H2 2015 on healthy netbacks strong demand

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

USD

tonne

Qty

in 0

00 to

nnes

Others

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea

Import parity of domesticcargoesFOB South Korea prices

Increase in selling to China because of healthy netbacks weak TDP spread

Narrow gap results in fewer imports in line with FOB K price support from PX

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 42wwwiciscom 42

Exports from Asia to US market sporadic highly dependent on price gap gasoline blending season and Asia demand

0

10

20

30

40

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250Q

ty in 000 tonnesU

SDto

nne

Price gap (Asia prompt vs US forward) Exports from Asia to US

Open arbitrage opportunities result in increase of Asia exports

Consistent upward trend leads to selling interest

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 43wwwiciscom 43

India TOL imports mainly from SE Asia and Iran

46

23

17

37

4

2014

Singapore Thailand Iran S Korea Europe Others

2015

50

24

9

37

7

Source customs data

Total= 288kt Total= 288kt

wwwiciscom 44wwwiciscom 44

NE Asia TOL supply could outstrip demand in H2 2016 on heavier downstream turnarounds permanent shutdowns

H2 2015 H2 2016

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S Oil Onsan old TDP Onsan 00 42 42 00 00 00

00 42 42 00 00 00FCFC Aroma 2 TDP Mailiao 67 200 00 00 00 00

67 200 00 00 00 00JX Nippon Oil TDP Mizushima A 00 00 75 75 00 00

00 00 75 75 00 0067 242 117 75 00 00

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecLotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 73 25 00KPIC Ulsan 00 00 00 83 00 00S Oil No 1 Onsan 00 146 146 00 00 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 167 333 00OCI Yeosu 00 00 00 33 00 00

00 146 146 357 358 00Mitsui Chemicals Chiba 00 00 00 83 83 00JX Nippon Oil Mizushima A 00 00 117 233 00 00Tonen General Wakayama 00 00 00 69 92 00

00 00 117 385 175 00FCFC Aroma No 2 Mailiao 83 250 00 00 00 00CPC No 6 Kaohsiung 40 00 20 80 20 00CPC No3 Kaoshiung 00 00 00 00 83 55

123 250 20 80 103 55123 396 283 822 636 55

Est TOL consumption loss from KR

Est TOL consumption loss from TW

Est TOL production loss from KR

Total est consumption loss from NE Asia

Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia

CONSUMPTION (mt)

PRODUCTION (mt)

Est TOL consumption loss from JPN

Est TOL production loss from JPN

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUlsan Aromatics Center TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 1000 500 00SKGC TDP Incheon 00 00 00 83 42 00LG Chem H D A (shut since Jan) Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38

38 38 38 1122 580 38Taiyo Oil TDP cut rate only Kikuma 42 07 00 00 00 00MSNC TDI (shut since April) Omuta 65 65 65 65 65 65

107 72 65 65 65 65145 110 103 1187 645 103

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSKGC Incheon 00 00 00 133 67 00

00 00 00 133 67 00Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 00 00 108 108 00 00JFEC Chiba 00 00 14 42 00 00

00 00 122 150 00 00CPC No 7 Kaohsiung 00 00 00 27 108 00CPC No 3 Kaohsiung 110 00 00 00 00 00

110 00 00 27 108 00110 00 122 310 175 00

Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia

PRODUCTION (mt)

CONSUMPTION (mt)

Est TOL consumption loss from KR

Est TOL consumption loss from JPNTotal est consumption loss from NE Asia

Est TOL production loss from KR

Est TOL production loss from JPN

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016

Qty

in to

nnes

Total est consumption loss from NE Asia Total est production loss from NE AsiaSource ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45

Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance

Source ICIS

bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016

bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread

bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption

bull Improvements in TOL blend values

bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading

bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer

bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers

bull Other competitively priced blendstocks

bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL

bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China

TOL supply

TOL demand

Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors

wwwiciscom 46

Drivers of benzene trade flow

wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47

-60-40-200204060

500550600650700750800850900

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea

China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016

020000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000180000200000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Tonn

es

Others

MiddleEastThailand

Malaysia

Taiwan

Japan

SouthKorea

China imports

Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand

Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance

Strong appetite for imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48

Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

-

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

Pric

e ($

tonn

e)

Tonn

es

Shore tank inventories

E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity

2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite

Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains

Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49

-80-60-40-20020406080100

500550600650700750800850900950

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15

Tonn

es

OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea

Imports from Asia increase

Imports lower due to higher China prices

S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015

Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates

US imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50

Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600Ja

n-14

Feb-

14M

ar-1

4A

pr-1

4M

ay-1

4Ju

n-14

Jul-1

4A

ug-1

4Se

p-14

Oct

-14

Nov

-14

Dec

-14

Jan-

15Fe

b-15

Mar

-15

Apr

-15

May

-15

Jun-

15Ju

l-15

Aug

-15

Sep-

15O

ct-1

5N

ov-1

5D

ec-1

5Ja

n-16

Feb-

16M

ar-1

6A

pr-1

6

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)Naphtha-Benzene

Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene

$346t $193t $230t

wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51

S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32

Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300

SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15

YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37

2015 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25

S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25

SK Global Chem Incheon 200

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16

OthersTaiwanChinaUS

S Korea exports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52

Outlook increased supply likely to head to China

Source ICIS industry

Company Location BZ Start up period

Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016

Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16

Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos

(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul

Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16

Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16

Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16

Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017

Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex

Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017

Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017

KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017

Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017

Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726

Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322

Product Company Location Capacity(kta)

BZ usage Start up period

SM

Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16

Donghao China 300 240 May-16

Phenol

PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16

Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16

Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17

PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017

Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017

CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17

CPL

Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16

China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16

Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16

MDI

Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017

Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017

Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017

Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972

Consumption within China in 2016 637 655

wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53

Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season

S Korea 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75

BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0

S Korea 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5

KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26

S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13

BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3

Japan 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36

Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12

BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0

Japan 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23

Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24

JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24

BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17

Source ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54

BZ demandBZ supply

bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China

bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ

bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene

bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units

bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher

bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure

bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed

bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand

Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55

Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom

Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom

Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom

Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom

wwwiciscom 56

Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets

Pricing information

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Request your free sample report gtgt

We produce reliable price assessments and analyses covering Asian aromatics and olefins markets including price histories and a 12-month rolling price forecast enabling you to understand price drivers and settle your contract prices more confidently Our pricing coverage includes

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wwwiciscom 57

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Page 4: Asia Olefins & Aromatics Markets –A Turning of the Tide? · PDF fileBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news, ... Saudi Arabia 1,500 350 LDPE,1,080 solution PEQ2/mid 2016

wwwiciscom 5wwwiciscom 5

2016 Asia ethylene market review amp outlook

US ethane-based derivative expansions ndash an emerging threat

Agenda

wwwiciscom 6

2016 Asia ethylene market review amp outlook

wwwiciscom 77

Test

Asia ethylene prices surged to over 8-month high in H2 Mar 2016

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 88

Test

NE Asia naphtha-based ethylene margins exceeded $700tonne in Mar full-year outlook

likely to be strong

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 99

Test

Key price drivers Q1 2016

wwwiciscom 1010

Test

Crude recovering after hitting more than 12-year low

wwwiciscom 1111

Test

Downstream prices mostly higher after H1 Feb CNY holiday price gains led by SM

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 1212

SM makersrsquo strong margins supported high ethylene prices

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 1313Source ICIS

Weak margins of most other derivatives capped ethylene price gains towards late Mar

wwwiciscom 1414Source ICIS

Supply crimped by annual cracker turnaround season starting from late FebMar

wwwiciscom 15

Impact of industry consolidation snowballs Asahi Kasei mothballs cracker in 2016

Company Location

C2 capacity losses (lsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream capacity losses(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Cracker closure date

Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Jinshan China 150 Nov 2013

Mitsubishi Chemical Kashima Japan 392 92 LLDPE May 2014

CPC Corp Kaohsiung Taiwan 500 (No 5)SD advanced to Jul 2014 from end 2015

Sumitomo Chemical Chiba Japan 415 425 SM180 PO May 2015

Asahi Kasei Mizushima Japan 500 320 SM Mid Feb 2016

Total C2 capacity losses1957Source Industry

wwwiciscom 16

Production issues curtailed SE Asia supply

Company Location

C2 capacity (lsquo 000 tonnesyr) Operating status

Shell

PulauBukom Singapore Around 960

Shut in late Nov 2015 may restart in Julearly Aug 2016

Chandra AsriCilegonIndonesia 860

Q1 run rates at 50-85 after capacity expansion in Dec 2015

Source Industry

wwwiciscom 1717

Test

Key price drivers Q2-Q4 2016

wwwiciscom 18

Crude oversupply expected to ease in H2 2016

wwwiciscom 1919Source Industry

2016 ethylene production losses from cracker turnarounds largely in Q2-Q3 overall losses down

34 YoY

wwwiciscom 2020Source Industry

Net losses after including +70kta at Asahi-Mitsubishi JV cracker

Output losses higher than 2015 after factoring in Shellrsquos Singapore cracker outage Asahirsquos cracker closure

wwwiciscom 2121Source Industry

Japan becomes structurally tighter

wwwiciscom 2222Source Industry

S Korearsquos exports likely to stabilise at low levels of around 650kt in 2016 after falling for two years

wwwiciscom 2323

End 2015-2016 ethylene capacity expansions in AsiaMideast

Saudi+1800kta

India+3270kta

Iran+2000kta Japan

+70ktaChina+1615kta

Source Industry

Total 9015 kta

Indonesia+260kta

wwwiciscom 2424Source Industry

Cracker expansions concentrated in IndiaMideast mostly integrated

Company Location

C2 capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr) Start-up schedule

Chandra Asri Cilegon Indonesia +260 to 860 Dec 2015Asahi Kasei Mitsubishi Chemical Ethylene Corp Mizushima Japan +70 to 570 1 Apr 2016GAIL Auraiya India 450 400 PE End Feb 2016Brahmaputra Cracker and Polymer Ltd (BCPL) Lepetkata Assam India 220 220 HDPELLDPE End Q1 2016

ONGC Petro Additions (OPaL) Dahej Gujarat India 1100 340 HDPE 720HDPELLDPE Late Q2 2016

Reliance Jamnagar India 1500 750 MEG 550 LLDPE 450 LDPE End 2016

Sadara Chemical Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia 1500 350 LDPE 1080 solution PE Q2mid 2016 at earliest

Petro Rabigh Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia +300 to 1600 150 LDPEEVA 75 EPDM Apr 2016 (cracker only)

Kavian Petrochemical Bushehr Iran 1000Supply to domestic plants via west pipeline H2 20162017

Arvand Petrochemical Gachsaran Iran 1000Feeds own vinyls plants+pipeline customers H2 20162017

Total C27400

wwwiciscom 2525

Expansions in China centred on integrated coal-based projects

Source Industry

Company Location Facility

C2 capacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstreamcapacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr

Start-upschedule

Shenhua Yulin Shenmu Shaanxi MTO 300 300 PE Dec 2015Inner Mongolia ChinaCoal Mengda New Energy amp Chemical Industry

Erdos Inner Mongolia CTO 300

300HDPELLDPE Apr 2016

Shenhua Xinjiang Urumqi Xinjiang CTO 320 320 LDPE Late Q2 2016

Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Golmud Qinghai CTO 160 300 PVC Q3 2016

Fund (Changzhou) Energy amp Chemical Changzhou Jiangsu MTO 165 Q3 2016

Jiangsu Sailboat PetrochemicalLianyungang Jiangsu MTO 370

300 EVALDPE 180 EO 20 MEG Q4 2016

Total C21615 Will supply to Changzhou Dohowrsquos new 300kta SM plant

wwwiciscom 2626Source Industry

More capacity increases at crackers in NESE Asia in 2017

Company Location

C2 capacityadditions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Completion schedule

Korea Petrochemical Industry Co (KPIC)

Onsan South Korea +330 to 800 Mid 2017

Lotte Chemical TitanPasir Gudang Malaysia 90 H1 2017

CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals (CSPC)

Huizhou Guangdong China 1000

150 EO 480 EG400 HDPE 300 LLDPE 700 SM End 20172018

Total C2 1420

wwwiciscom 27Source Industry

Chinarsquos ethylene import demand in 2016 could increase to around 1550-1600kt from 2015rsquos 1516kt

wwwiciscom 2828

Arbitrage amp Mideast cargoes help offset regional supply shortfalls around 500-565kt expected in 2016

Source Industry

Saudi 170-175kt

US 130-140kt

Europe 200-250kt

Projected spot supply excludes term cargoes

wwwiciscom 29

US ethane-based derivative expansions ndash an emerging threat

wwwiciscom 30

Company LocationC2 capacity (rsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream (lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Start-up schedule

Chevron Phillips ChemicalCedar Bayou Texas 1500

500 Bimodal HDPE 500 mLLDPE at Sweeny Mid 2017

Dow Chemical Freeport Texas 1500400 ELITE PE 350 LDPE 320 elastomers 200 EPDM H1 2017

ExxonMobil Chemical Baytown Texas 1500650x2 mLLDPE plus LLDPE at Mont Belvieu H2 2017

Formosa PlasticsPoint Comfort Texas 1590

525 PE unspec 6255 LDPE1000 MEG 20172018

Occidental ChemicalMexichem Ingleside Texas 544 Feed into existing 1050 VCM Q1 2017

SasolLake Charles Louisiana 1500

450 LDPE 450 LLDPE 300EOEG 300 ethoxylatesdetergent alcohols 2018

Total C28134 Total PE 51005

2017-2018 US ethylene amp derivatives projects country to become major PE exporter

Source ICIS Chemical Business

wwwiciscom 31

Chinarsquos PE deficit to continue

wwwiciscom 32wwwiciscom 32

Asia ethylene market to remain tight in 2016

Low-cost US PE exports likely to begin in late 2017 operations of naphtha-based integrated producers in Asia may be impacted

Conclusion

wwwiciscom 33

Asiarsquos toluene and benzene trade flows

wwwiciscom 34

Drivers of Asiarsquos toluene trade flow

wwwiciscom 35wwwiciscom 35

Asiarsquos TOL prices still tracks PX but relationship may weaken on narrower TDP spreads wider toluene-naphtha gap

0

50

100

150

200

250

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

160002

-Jan

-201

422

-Jan

-201

412

-Feb

-201

404

-Mar

-201

424

-Mar

-201

411

-Apr

-201

401

-May

-201

421

-May

-201

410

-Jun

-201

430

-Jun

-201

418

-Jul

-201

407

-Aug

-201

427

-Aug

-201

416

-Sep

-201

406

-Oct

-201

424

-Oct

-201

413

-Nov

-201

403

-Dec

-201

423

-Dec

-201

421

-Jan

-201

510

-Feb

-201

504

-Mar

-201

524

-Mar

-201

513

-Apr

-201

504

-May

-201

522

-May

-201

511

-Jun

-201

501

-Jul

-201

521

-Jul

-201

511

-Aug

-201

531

-Aug

-201

518

-Sep

-201

508

-Oct

-201

528

-Oct

-201

517

-Nov

-201

507

-Dec

-201

504

-Jan

-201

622

-Jan

-201

615

-Feb

-201

604

-Mar

-201

624

-Mar

-201

6

TDP spread (U

SDtonne)

USD

tonn

e

TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Toluene FOB K PX CFR CN

CF 094

CF 095

CF = correlation factor

CF 092

CF= 093

Healthy margins prevailed in 2014 supporting the closer relationship between PX and TOL prices

Margins turned largely negative in 2015 weakening the relationship slightly Strong blend value (BV) of TOL had larger impact on prices

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 36wwwiciscom 36

Wider toluene-naphtha spread since end-2015 increased toluene selling impetus instead of downstream usage allocation

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400Price spread (U

SDtonne)

USD

tonn

e

Toluene-Naphtha spread Naphtha CFR Japan Toluene FOB South Korea

Heavy speculation low Chinese + Indian inventory healthy PX spread led to widened spread in Q1 2016

Price increases supported by start-up of UAC higher usage of TOL for TDP units in addition to summer blending season

Breakeven level

Ave = 230Ave = 170Ave = 170

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 37wwwiciscom 37

TOL heavily placed in blending pool in 2015 capping op rates of downstream TDPs 2016 situation may be reversed

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

USD

tonn

e

Toluene blend value Toluene FOB Korea prices

95-TOL CF= 090

Strong TOL BV in H1 of 2014 results in the price support from gasoline blending strengthening relationship between the two

FOB K prices consistently higher than BV difficult to find demand from blending pool

95-TOL CF= 06895-TOL CF= 090

TOL BV surpasses TOL FOB K making it possible to be placed into blending pool for most of 2015

CF = correlation factorSource ICIS

wwwiciscom 38wwwiciscom 38

Chinese inventories have heavy influence on buying interest Q1 shortage supported sellersrsquo decision to offload more TOL

Ave = 103kt Ave = 903kt Ave = 89kt

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

USD

tonne0

00 to

nnes

east China south China CFR China price Import parity price of CNY cargoes

Strong demand from gasoline blending sector and cargo delays result in 3-year low inventories

Period of strong demand

Previously overbought slow offtake after LNY

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 39

S Korearsquos importexport position for TOL dependent on TDP spreads switch in production strategies in Q1 2016

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

50

100

150

200

25003

-Jan

-201

424

-Jan

-201

414

-Feb

-201

407

-Mar

-201

428

-Mar

-201

418

-Apr

-201

409

-May

-201

430

-May

-201

420

-Jun

-201

411

-Jul

-201

401

-Aug

-201

422

-Aug

-201

412

-Sep

-201

403

-Oct

-201

424

-Oct

-201

414

-Nov

-201

405

-Dec

-201

426

-Dec

-201

423

-Jan

-201

513

-Feb

-201

506

-Mar

-201

527

-Mar

-201

517

-Apr

-201

508

-May

-201

529

-May

-201

519

-Jun

-201

510

-Jul

-201

531

-Jul

-201

521

-Aug

-201

511

-Sep

-201

502

-Oct

-201

523

-Oct

-201

513

-Nov

-201

504

-Dec

-201

525

-Dec

-201

522

-Jan

-201

612

-Feb

-201

604

-Mar

-201

625

-Mar

-201

615

-Apr

-201

6

Qty in lsquo000 tonnes

USD

tonn

e

TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Exports from S Korea Imports to S Korea

Start up of UACrsquos TDP

Slight strategy switch as low Chinese inventories strong naphtha-TOL spread since Q1 leads to stronger TOL selling interest

Overall drop in TDP spreads from mid-2014 results in selling interest switch to net exporter

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 40

Heavier downstream unit turnarounds and production adjustments led to more S Korea-origin exports

H1 2015 H1 2016

0

20

40

60

80

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Qty

in 0

00 to

nnes

South Korea exports

China Taiwan Vietnam US Japan Singapore India Others

Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 13 00Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 00 00 18 00Hyundai Cosmo TDP Daesan 00 00 00 50 200 00S Oil No 2 TDP Onsan 00 00 00 200 00 00

00 00 00 250 231 00Producer LocationLG Chem Daesan 00 00 23 23 00 00YNCC No 1 Yeosu 00 00 00 00 50 50Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 00 00 00 08 63 00Lotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 23 00 00S Oil No 2 Onsan 00 00 124 267 00 00SKGC Incheon 67 00 00 00 00 00

67 00 147 321 113 50

Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)

Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)

Source ICIS

Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 00 87Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 27 00 00 00OCI TDI Kunsan 00 06 00 00 00 00GSCX STDP Yeosu 00 00 00 583 82 00Hanwha Total TDP Daesan 00 00 222 278 00 00SKGC TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 00 49 208LG H D A Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38

38 45 288 899 169 333Producer Location Hanwha Total Daesan 00 00 153 191 00 00GSCX Yeosu 00 00 00 174 49 00Lotte Chem Yeosu 00 00 00 47 16 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 00 78 333YNCC Yeosu 00 00 33 17 00 00

00 00 186 428 143 333

Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)

Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)

wwwiciscom 41wwwiciscom 41

NE Asia and SE Asia exports to China rise since H2 2015 on healthy netbacks strong demand

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

USD

tonne

Qty

in 0

00 to

nnes

Others

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea

Import parity of domesticcargoesFOB South Korea prices

Increase in selling to China because of healthy netbacks weak TDP spread

Narrow gap results in fewer imports in line with FOB K price support from PX

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 42wwwiciscom 42

Exports from Asia to US market sporadic highly dependent on price gap gasoline blending season and Asia demand

0

10

20

30

40

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250Q

ty in 000 tonnesU

SDto

nne

Price gap (Asia prompt vs US forward) Exports from Asia to US

Open arbitrage opportunities result in increase of Asia exports

Consistent upward trend leads to selling interest

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 43wwwiciscom 43

India TOL imports mainly from SE Asia and Iran

46

23

17

37

4

2014

Singapore Thailand Iran S Korea Europe Others

2015

50

24

9

37

7

Source customs data

Total= 288kt Total= 288kt

wwwiciscom 44wwwiciscom 44

NE Asia TOL supply could outstrip demand in H2 2016 on heavier downstream turnarounds permanent shutdowns

H2 2015 H2 2016

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S Oil Onsan old TDP Onsan 00 42 42 00 00 00

00 42 42 00 00 00FCFC Aroma 2 TDP Mailiao 67 200 00 00 00 00

67 200 00 00 00 00JX Nippon Oil TDP Mizushima A 00 00 75 75 00 00

00 00 75 75 00 0067 242 117 75 00 00

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecLotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 73 25 00KPIC Ulsan 00 00 00 83 00 00S Oil No 1 Onsan 00 146 146 00 00 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 167 333 00OCI Yeosu 00 00 00 33 00 00

00 146 146 357 358 00Mitsui Chemicals Chiba 00 00 00 83 83 00JX Nippon Oil Mizushima A 00 00 117 233 00 00Tonen General Wakayama 00 00 00 69 92 00

00 00 117 385 175 00FCFC Aroma No 2 Mailiao 83 250 00 00 00 00CPC No 6 Kaohsiung 40 00 20 80 20 00CPC No3 Kaoshiung 00 00 00 00 83 55

123 250 20 80 103 55123 396 283 822 636 55

Est TOL consumption loss from KR

Est TOL consumption loss from TW

Est TOL production loss from KR

Total est consumption loss from NE Asia

Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia

CONSUMPTION (mt)

PRODUCTION (mt)

Est TOL consumption loss from JPN

Est TOL production loss from JPN

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUlsan Aromatics Center TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 1000 500 00SKGC TDP Incheon 00 00 00 83 42 00LG Chem H D A (shut since Jan) Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38

38 38 38 1122 580 38Taiyo Oil TDP cut rate only Kikuma 42 07 00 00 00 00MSNC TDI (shut since April) Omuta 65 65 65 65 65 65

107 72 65 65 65 65145 110 103 1187 645 103

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSKGC Incheon 00 00 00 133 67 00

00 00 00 133 67 00Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 00 00 108 108 00 00JFEC Chiba 00 00 14 42 00 00

00 00 122 150 00 00CPC No 7 Kaohsiung 00 00 00 27 108 00CPC No 3 Kaohsiung 110 00 00 00 00 00

110 00 00 27 108 00110 00 122 310 175 00

Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia

PRODUCTION (mt)

CONSUMPTION (mt)

Est TOL consumption loss from KR

Est TOL consumption loss from JPNTotal est consumption loss from NE Asia

Est TOL production loss from KR

Est TOL production loss from JPN

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016

Qty

in to

nnes

Total est consumption loss from NE Asia Total est production loss from NE AsiaSource ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45

Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance

Source ICIS

bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016

bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread

bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption

bull Improvements in TOL blend values

bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading

bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer

bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers

bull Other competitively priced blendstocks

bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL

bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China

TOL supply

TOL demand

Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors

wwwiciscom 46

Drivers of benzene trade flow

wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47

-60-40-200204060

500550600650700750800850900

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea

China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016

020000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000180000200000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Tonn

es

Others

MiddleEastThailand

Malaysia

Taiwan

Japan

SouthKorea

China imports

Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand

Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance

Strong appetite for imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48

Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

-

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

Pric

e ($

tonn

e)

Tonn

es

Shore tank inventories

E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity

2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite

Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains

Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49

-80-60-40-20020406080100

500550600650700750800850900950

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15

Tonn

es

OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea

Imports from Asia increase

Imports lower due to higher China prices

S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015

Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates

US imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50

Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600Ja

n-14

Feb-

14M

ar-1

4A

pr-1

4M

ay-1

4Ju

n-14

Jul-1

4A

ug-1

4Se

p-14

Oct

-14

Nov

-14

Dec

-14

Jan-

15Fe

b-15

Mar

-15

Apr

-15

May

-15

Jun-

15Ju

l-15

Aug

-15

Sep-

15O

ct-1

5N

ov-1

5D

ec-1

5Ja

n-16

Feb-

16M

ar-1

6A

pr-1

6

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)Naphtha-Benzene

Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene

$346t $193t $230t

wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51

S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32

Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300

SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15

YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37

2015 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25

S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25

SK Global Chem Incheon 200

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16

OthersTaiwanChinaUS

S Korea exports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52

Outlook increased supply likely to head to China

Source ICIS industry

Company Location BZ Start up period

Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016

Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16

Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos

(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul

Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16

Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16

Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16

Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017

Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex

Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017

Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017

KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017

Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017

Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726

Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322

Product Company Location Capacity(kta)

BZ usage Start up period

SM

Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16

Donghao China 300 240 May-16

Phenol

PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16

Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16

Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17

PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017

Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017

CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17

CPL

Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16

China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16

Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16

MDI

Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017

Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017

Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017

Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972

Consumption within China in 2016 637 655

wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53

Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season

S Korea 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75

BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0

S Korea 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5

KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26

S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13

BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3

Japan 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36

Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12

BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0

Japan 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23

Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24

JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24

BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17

Source ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54

BZ demandBZ supply

bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China

bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ

bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene

bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units

bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher

bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure

bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed

bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand

Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55

Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom

Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom

Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom

Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom

wwwiciscom 56

Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets

Pricing information

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wwwiciscom 57

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Page 5: Asia Olefins & Aromatics Markets –A Turning of the Tide? · PDF fileBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news, ... Saudi Arabia 1,500 350 LDPE,1,080 solution PEQ2/mid 2016

wwwiciscom 6

2016 Asia ethylene market review amp outlook

wwwiciscom 77

Test

Asia ethylene prices surged to over 8-month high in H2 Mar 2016

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 88

Test

NE Asia naphtha-based ethylene margins exceeded $700tonne in Mar full-year outlook

likely to be strong

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 99

Test

Key price drivers Q1 2016

wwwiciscom 1010

Test

Crude recovering after hitting more than 12-year low

wwwiciscom 1111

Test

Downstream prices mostly higher after H1 Feb CNY holiday price gains led by SM

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 1212

SM makersrsquo strong margins supported high ethylene prices

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 1313Source ICIS

Weak margins of most other derivatives capped ethylene price gains towards late Mar

wwwiciscom 1414Source ICIS

Supply crimped by annual cracker turnaround season starting from late FebMar

wwwiciscom 15

Impact of industry consolidation snowballs Asahi Kasei mothballs cracker in 2016

Company Location

C2 capacity losses (lsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream capacity losses(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Cracker closure date

Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Jinshan China 150 Nov 2013

Mitsubishi Chemical Kashima Japan 392 92 LLDPE May 2014

CPC Corp Kaohsiung Taiwan 500 (No 5)SD advanced to Jul 2014 from end 2015

Sumitomo Chemical Chiba Japan 415 425 SM180 PO May 2015

Asahi Kasei Mizushima Japan 500 320 SM Mid Feb 2016

Total C2 capacity losses1957Source Industry

wwwiciscom 16

Production issues curtailed SE Asia supply

Company Location

C2 capacity (lsquo 000 tonnesyr) Operating status

Shell

PulauBukom Singapore Around 960

Shut in late Nov 2015 may restart in Julearly Aug 2016

Chandra AsriCilegonIndonesia 860

Q1 run rates at 50-85 after capacity expansion in Dec 2015

Source Industry

wwwiciscom 1717

Test

Key price drivers Q2-Q4 2016

wwwiciscom 18

Crude oversupply expected to ease in H2 2016

wwwiciscom 1919Source Industry

2016 ethylene production losses from cracker turnarounds largely in Q2-Q3 overall losses down

34 YoY

wwwiciscom 2020Source Industry

Net losses after including +70kta at Asahi-Mitsubishi JV cracker

Output losses higher than 2015 after factoring in Shellrsquos Singapore cracker outage Asahirsquos cracker closure

wwwiciscom 2121Source Industry

Japan becomes structurally tighter

wwwiciscom 2222Source Industry

S Korearsquos exports likely to stabilise at low levels of around 650kt in 2016 after falling for two years

wwwiciscom 2323

End 2015-2016 ethylene capacity expansions in AsiaMideast

Saudi+1800kta

India+3270kta

Iran+2000kta Japan

+70ktaChina+1615kta

Source Industry

Total 9015 kta

Indonesia+260kta

wwwiciscom 2424Source Industry

Cracker expansions concentrated in IndiaMideast mostly integrated

Company Location

C2 capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr) Start-up schedule

Chandra Asri Cilegon Indonesia +260 to 860 Dec 2015Asahi Kasei Mitsubishi Chemical Ethylene Corp Mizushima Japan +70 to 570 1 Apr 2016GAIL Auraiya India 450 400 PE End Feb 2016Brahmaputra Cracker and Polymer Ltd (BCPL) Lepetkata Assam India 220 220 HDPELLDPE End Q1 2016

ONGC Petro Additions (OPaL) Dahej Gujarat India 1100 340 HDPE 720HDPELLDPE Late Q2 2016

Reliance Jamnagar India 1500 750 MEG 550 LLDPE 450 LDPE End 2016

Sadara Chemical Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia 1500 350 LDPE 1080 solution PE Q2mid 2016 at earliest

Petro Rabigh Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia +300 to 1600 150 LDPEEVA 75 EPDM Apr 2016 (cracker only)

Kavian Petrochemical Bushehr Iran 1000Supply to domestic plants via west pipeline H2 20162017

Arvand Petrochemical Gachsaran Iran 1000Feeds own vinyls plants+pipeline customers H2 20162017

Total C27400

wwwiciscom 2525

Expansions in China centred on integrated coal-based projects

Source Industry

Company Location Facility

C2 capacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstreamcapacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr

Start-upschedule

Shenhua Yulin Shenmu Shaanxi MTO 300 300 PE Dec 2015Inner Mongolia ChinaCoal Mengda New Energy amp Chemical Industry

Erdos Inner Mongolia CTO 300

300HDPELLDPE Apr 2016

Shenhua Xinjiang Urumqi Xinjiang CTO 320 320 LDPE Late Q2 2016

Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Golmud Qinghai CTO 160 300 PVC Q3 2016

Fund (Changzhou) Energy amp Chemical Changzhou Jiangsu MTO 165 Q3 2016

Jiangsu Sailboat PetrochemicalLianyungang Jiangsu MTO 370

300 EVALDPE 180 EO 20 MEG Q4 2016

Total C21615 Will supply to Changzhou Dohowrsquos new 300kta SM plant

wwwiciscom 2626Source Industry

More capacity increases at crackers in NESE Asia in 2017

Company Location

C2 capacityadditions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Completion schedule

Korea Petrochemical Industry Co (KPIC)

Onsan South Korea +330 to 800 Mid 2017

Lotte Chemical TitanPasir Gudang Malaysia 90 H1 2017

CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals (CSPC)

Huizhou Guangdong China 1000

150 EO 480 EG400 HDPE 300 LLDPE 700 SM End 20172018

Total C2 1420

wwwiciscom 27Source Industry

Chinarsquos ethylene import demand in 2016 could increase to around 1550-1600kt from 2015rsquos 1516kt

wwwiciscom 2828

Arbitrage amp Mideast cargoes help offset regional supply shortfalls around 500-565kt expected in 2016

Source Industry

Saudi 170-175kt

US 130-140kt

Europe 200-250kt

Projected spot supply excludes term cargoes

wwwiciscom 29

US ethane-based derivative expansions ndash an emerging threat

wwwiciscom 30

Company LocationC2 capacity (rsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream (lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Start-up schedule

Chevron Phillips ChemicalCedar Bayou Texas 1500

500 Bimodal HDPE 500 mLLDPE at Sweeny Mid 2017

Dow Chemical Freeport Texas 1500400 ELITE PE 350 LDPE 320 elastomers 200 EPDM H1 2017

ExxonMobil Chemical Baytown Texas 1500650x2 mLLDPE plus LLDPE at Mont Belvieu H2 2017

Formosa PlasticsPoint Comfort Texas 1590

525 PE unspec 6255 LDPE1000 MEG 20172018

Occidental ChemicalMexichem Ingleside Texas 544 Feed into existing 1050 VCM Q1 2017

SasolLake Charles Louisiana 1500

450 LDPE 450 LLDPE 300EOEG 300 ethoxylatesdetergent alcohols 2018

Total C28134 Total PE 51005

2017-2018 US ethylene amp derivatives projects country to become major PE exporter

Source ICIS Chemical Business

wwwiciscom 31

Chinarsquos PE deficit to continue

wwwiciscom 32wwwiciscom 32

Asia ethylene market to remain tight in 2016

Low-cost US PE exports likely to begin in late 2017 operations of naphtha-based integrated producers in Asia may be impacted

Conclusion

wwwiciscom 33

Asiarsquos toluene and benzene trade flows

wwwiciscom 34

Drivers of Asiarsquos toluene trade flow

wwwiciscom 35wwwiciscom 35

Asiarsquos TOL prices still tracks PX but relationship may weaken on narrower TDP spreads wider toluene-naphtha gap

0

50

100

150

200

250

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

160002

-Jan

-201

422

-Jan

-201

412

-Feb

-201

404

-Mar

-201

424

-Mar

-201

411

-Apr

-201

401

-May

-201

421

-May

-201

410

-Jun

-201

430

-Jun

-201

418

-Jul

-201

407

-Aug

-201

427

-Aug

-201

416

-Sep

-201

406

-Oct

-201

424

-Oct

-201

413

-Nov

-201

403

-Dec

-201

423

-Dec

-201

421

-Jan

-201

510

-Feb

-201

504

-Mar

-201

524

-Mar

-201

513

-Apr

-201

504

-May

-201

522

-May

-201

511

-Jun

-201

501

-Jul

-201

521

-Jul

-201

511

-Aug

-201

531

-Aug

-201

518

-Sep

-201

508

-Oct

-201

528

-Oct

-201

517

-Nov

-201

507

-Dec

-201

504

-Jan

-201

622

-Jan

-201

615

-Feb

-201

604

-Mar

-201

624

-Mar

-201

6

TDP spread (U

SDtonne)

USD

tonn

e

TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Toluene FOB K PX CFR CN

CF 094

CF 095

CF = correlation factor

CF 092

CF= 093

Healthy margins prevailed in 2014 supporting the closer relationship between PX and TOL prices

Margins turned largely negative in 2015 weakening the relationship slightly Strong blend value (BV) of TOL had larger impact on prices

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 36wwwiciscom 36

Wider toluene-naphtha spread since end-2015 increased toluene selling impetus instead of downstream usage allocation

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400Price spread (U

SDtonne)

USD

tonn

e

Toluene-Naphtha spread Naphtha CFR Japan Toluene FOB South Korea

Heavy speculation low Chinese + Indian inventory healthy PX spread led to widened spread in Q1 2016

Price increases supported by start-up of UAC higher usage of TOL for TDP units in addition to summer blending season

Breakeven level

Ave = 230Ave = 170Ave = 170

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 37wwwiciscom 37

TOL heavily placed in blending pool in 2015 capping op rates of downstream TDPs 2016 situation may be reversed

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

USD

tonn

e

Toluene blend value Toluene FOB Korea prices

95-TOL CF= 090

Strong TOL BV in H1 of 2014 results in the price support from gasoline blending strengthening relationship between the two

FOB K prices consistently higher than BV difficult to find demand from blending pool

95-TOL CF= 06895-TOL CF= 090

TOL BV surpasses TOL FOB K making it possible to be placed into blending pool for most of 2015

CF = correlation factorSource ICIS

wwwiciscom 38wwwiciscom 38

Chinese inventories have heavy influence on buying interest Q1 shortage supported sellersrsquo decision to offload more TOL

Ave = 103kt Ave = 903kt Ave = 89kt

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

USD

tonne0

00 to

nnes

east China south China CFR China price Import parity price of CNY cargoes

Strong demand from gasoline blending sector and cargo delays result in 3-year low inventories

Period of strong demand

Previously overbought slow offtake after LNY

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 39

S Korearsquos importexport position for TOL dependent on TDP spreads switch in production strategies in Q1 2016

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

50

100

150

200

25003

-Jan

-201

424

-Jan

-201

414

-Feb

-201

407

-Mar

-201

428

-Mar

-201

418

-Apr

-201

409

-May

-201

430

-May

-201

420

-Jun

-201

411

-Jul

-201

401

-Aug

-201

422

-Aug

-201

412

-Sep

-201

403

-Oct

-201

424

-Oct

-201

414

-Nov

-201

405

-Dec

-201

426

-Dec

-201

423

-Jan

-201

513

-Feb

-201

506

-Mar

-201

527

-Mar

-201

517

-Apr

-201

508

-May

-201

529

-May

-201

519

-Jun

-201

510

-Jul

-201

531

-Jul

-201

521

-Aug

-201

511

-Sep

-201

502

-Oct

-201

523

-Oct

-201

513

-Nov

-201

504

-Dec

-201

525

-Dec

-201

522

-Jan

-201

612

-Feb

-201

604

-Mar

-201

625

-Mar

-201

615

-Apr

-201

6

Qty in lsquo000 tonnes

USD

tonn

e

TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Exports from S Korea Imports to S Korea

Start up of UACrsquos TDP

Slight strategy switch as low Chinese inventories strong naphtha-TOL spread since Q1 leads to stronger TOL selling interest

Overall drop in TDP spreads from mid-2014 results in selling interest switch to net exporter

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 40

Heavier downstream unit turnarounds and production adjustments led to more S Korea-origin exports

H1 2015 H1 2016

0

20

40

60

80

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Qty

in 0

00 to

nnes

South Korea exports

China Taiwan Vietnam US Japan Singapore India Others

Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 13 00Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 00 00 18 00Hyundai Cosmo TDP Daesan 00 00 00 50 200 00S Oil No 2 TDP Onsan 00 00 00 200 00 00

00 00 00 250 231 00Producer LocationLG Chem Daesan 00 00 23 23 00 00YNCC No 1 Yeosu 00 00 00 00 50 50Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 00 00 00 08 63 00Lotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 23 00 00S Oil No 2 Onsan 00 00 124 267 00 00SKGC Incheon 67 00 00 00 00 00

67 00 147 321 113 50

Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)

Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)

Source ICIS

Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 00 87Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 27 00 00 00OCI TDI Kunsan 00 06 00 00 00 00GSCX STDP Yeosu 00 00 00 583 82 00Hanwha Total TDP Daesan 00 00 222 278 00 00SKGC TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 00 49 208LG H D A Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38

38 45 288 899 169 333Producer Location Hanwha Total Daesan 00 00 153 191 00 00GSCX Yeosu 00 00 00 174 49 00Lotte Chem Yeosu 00 00 00 47 16 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 00 78 333YNCC Yeosu 00 00 33 17 00 00

00 00 186 428 143 333

Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)

Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)

wwwiciscom 41wwwiciscom 41

NE Asia and SE Asia exports to China rise since H2 2015 on healthy netbacks strong demand

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

USD

tonne

Qty

in 0

00 to

nnes

Others

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea

Import parity of domesticcargoesFOB South Korea prices

Increase in selling to China because of healthy netbacks weak TDP spread

Narrow gap results in fewer imports in line with FOB K price support from PX

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 42wwwiciscom 42

Exports from Asia to US market sporadic highly dependent on price gap gasoline blending season and Asia demand

0

10

20

30

40

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250Q

ty in 000 tonnesU

SDto

nne

Price gap (Asia prompt vs US forward) Exports from Asia to US

Open arbitrage opportunities result in increase of Asia exports

Consistent upward trend leads to selling interest

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 43wwwiciscom 43

India TOL imports mainly from SE Asia and Iran

46

23

17

37

4

2014

Singapore Thailand Iran S Korea Europe Others

2015

50

24

9

37

7

Source customs data

Total= 288kt Total= 288kt

wwwiciscom 44wwwiciscom 44

NE Asia TOL supply could outstrip demand in H2 2016 on heavier downstream turnarounds permanent shutdowns

H2 2015 H2 2016

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S Oil Onsan old TDP Onsan 00 42 42 00 00 00

00 42 42 00 00 00FCFC Aroma 2 TDP Mailiao 67 200 00 00 00 00

67 200 00 00 00 00JX Nippon Oil TDP Mizushima A 00 00 75 75 00 00

00 00 75 75 00 0067 242 117 75 00 00

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecLotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 73 25 00KPIC Ulsan 00 00 00 83 00 00S Oil No 1 Onsan 00 146 146 00 00 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 167 333 00OCI Yeosu 00 00 00 33 00 00

00 146 146 357 358 00Mitsui Chemicals Chiba 00 00 00 83 83 00JX Nippon Oil Mizushima A 00 00 117 233 00 00Tonen General Wakayama 00 00 00 69 92 00

00 00 117 385 175 00FCFC Aroma No 2 Mailiao 83 250 00 00 00 00CPC No 6 Kaohsiung 40 00 20 80 20 00CPC No3 Kaoshiung 00 00 00 00 83 55

123 250 20 80 103 55123 396 283 822 636 55

Est TOL consumption loss from KR

Est TOL consumption loss from TW

Est TOL production loss from KR

Total est consumption loss from NE Asia

Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia

CONSUMPTION (mt)

PRODUCTION (mt)

Est TOL consumption loss from JPN

Est TOL production loss from JPN

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUlsan Aromatics Center TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 1000 500 00SKGC TDP Incheon 00 00 00 83 42 00LG Chem H D A (shut since Jan) Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38

38 38 38 1122 580 38Taiyo Oil TDP cut rate only Kikuma 42 07 00 00 00 00MSNC TDI (shut since April) Omuta 65 65 65 65 65 65

107 72 65 65 65 65145 110 103 1187 645 103

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSKGC Incheon 00 00 00 133 67 00

00 00 00 133 67 00Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 00 00 108 108 00 00JFEC Chiba 00 00 14 42 00 00

00 00 122 150 00 00CPC No 7 Kaohsiung 00 00 00 27 108 00CPC No 3 Kaohsiung 110 00 00 00 00 00

110 00 00 27 108 00110 00 122 310 175 00

Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia

PRODUCTION (mt)

CONSUMPTION (mt)

Est TOL consumption loss from KR

Est TOL consumption loss from JPNTotal est consumption loss from NE Asia

Est TOL production loss from KR

Est TOL production loss from JPN

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016

Qty

in to

nnes

Total est consumption loss from NE Asia Total est production loss from NE AsiaSource ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45

Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance

Source ICIS

bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016

bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread

bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption

bull Improvements in TOL blend values

bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading

bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer

bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers

bull Other competitively priced blendstocks

bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL

bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China

TOL supply

TOL demand

Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors

wwwiciscom 46

Drivers of benzene trade flow

wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47

-60-40-200204060

500550600650700750800850900

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea

China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016

020000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000180000200000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Tonn

es

Others

MiddleEastThailand

Malaysia

Taiwan

Japan

SouthKorea

China imports

Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand

Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance

Strong appetite for imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48

Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

-

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

Pric

e ($

tonn

e)

Tonn

es

Shore tank inventories

E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity

2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite

Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains

Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49

-80-60-40-20020406080100

500550600650700750800850900950

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15

Tonn

es

OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea

Imports from Asia increase

Imports lower due to higher China prices

S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015

Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates

US imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50

Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600Ja

n-14

Feb-

14M

ar-1

4A

pr-1

4M

ay-1

4Ju

n-14

Jul-1

4A

ug-1

4Se

p-14

Oct

-14

Nov

-14

Dec

-14

Jan-

15Fe

b-15

Mar

-15

Apr

-15

May

-15

Jun-

15Ju

l-15

Aug

-15

Sep-

15O

ct-1

5N

ov-1

5D

ec-1

5Ja

n-16

Feb-

16M

ar-1

6A

pr-1

6

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)Naphtha-Benzene

Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene

$346t $193t $230t

wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51

S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32

Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300

SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15

YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37

2015 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25

S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25

SK Global Chem Incheon 200

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16

OthersTaiwanChinaUS

S Korea exports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52

Outlook increased supply likely to head to China

Source ICIS industry

Company Location BZ Start up period

Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016

Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16

Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos

(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul

Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16

Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16

Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16

Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017

Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex

Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017

Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017

KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017

Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017

Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726

Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322

Product Company Location Capacity(kta)

BZ usage Start up period

SM

Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16

Donghao China 300 240 May-16

Phenol

PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16

Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16

Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17

PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017

Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017

CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17

CPL

Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16

China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16

Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16

MDI

Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017

Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017

Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017

Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972

Consumption within China in 2016 637 655

wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53

Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season

S Korea 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75

BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0

S Korea 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5

KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26

S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13

BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3

Japan 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36

Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12

BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0

Japan 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23

Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24

JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24

BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17

Source ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54

BZ demandBZ supply

bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China

bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ

bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene

bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units

bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher

bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure

bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed

bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand

Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55

Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom

Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom

Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom

Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom

wwwiciscom 56

Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets

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wwwiciscom 57

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Page 6: Asia Olefins & Aromatics Markets –A Turning of the Tide? · PDF fileBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news, ... Saudi Arabia 1,500 350 LDPE,1,080 solution PEQ2/mid 2016

wwwiciscom 77

Test

Asia ethylene prices surged to over 8-month high in H2 Mar 2016

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 88

Test

NE Asia naphtha-based ethylene margins exceeded $700tonne in Mar full-year outlook

likely to be strong

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 99

Test

Key price drivers Q1 2016

wwwiciscom 1010

Test

Crude recovering after hitting more than 12-year low

wwwiciscom 1111

Test

Downstream prices mostly higher after H1 Feb CNY holiday price gains led by SM

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 1212

SM makersrsquo strong margins supported high ethylene prices

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 1313Source ICIS

Weak margins of most other derivatives capped ethylene price gains towards late Mar

wwwiciscom 1414Source ICIS

Supply crimped by annual cracker turnaround season starting from late FebMar

wwwiciscom 15

Impact of industry consolidation snowballs Asahi Kasei mothballs cracker in 2016

Company Location

C2 capacity losses (lsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream capacity losses(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Cracker closure date

Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Jinshan China 150 Nov 2013

Mitsubishi Chemical Kashima Japan 392 92 LLDPE May 2014

CPC Corp Kaohsiung Taiwan 500 (No 5)SD advanced to Jul 2014 from end 2015

Sumitomo Chemical Chiba Japan 415 425 SM180 PO May 2015

Asahi Kasei Mizushima Japan 500 320 SM Mid Feb 2016

Total C2 capacity losses1957Source Industry

wwwiciscom 16

Production issues curtailed SE Asia supply

Company Location

C2 capacity (lsquo 000 tonnesyr) Operating status

Shell

PulauBukom Singapore Around 960

Shut in late Nov 2015 may restart in Julearly Aug 2016

Chandra AsriCilegonIndonesia 860

Q1 run rates at 50-85 after capacity expansion in Dec 2015

Source Industry

wwwiciscom 1717

Test

Key price drivers Q2-Q4 2016

wwwiciscom 18

Crude oversupply expected to ease in H2 2016

wwwiciscom 1919Source Industry

2016 ethylene production losses from cracker turnarounds largely in Q2-Q3 overall losses down

34 YoY

wwwiciscom 2020Source Industry

Net losses after including +70kta at Asahi-Mitsubishi JV cracker

Output losses higher than 2015 after factoring in Shellrsquos Singapore cracker outage Asahirsquos cracker closure

wwwiciscom 2121Source Industry

Japan becomes structurally tighter

wwwiciscom 2222Source Industry

S Korearsquos exports likely to stabilise at low levels of around 650kt in 2016 after falling for two years

wwwiciscom 2323

End 2015-2016 ethylene capacity expansions in AsiaMideast

Saudi+1800kta

India+3270kta

Iran+2000kta Japan

+70ktaChina+1615kta

Source Industry

Total 9015 kta

Indonesia+260kta

wwwiciscom 2424Source Industry

Cracker expansions concentrated in IndiaMideast mostly integrated

Company Location

C2 capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr) Start-up schedule

Chandra Asri Cilegon Indonesia +260 to 860 Dec 2015Asahi Kasei Mitsubishi Chemical Ethylene Corp Mizushima Japan +70 to 570 1 Apr 2016GAIL Auraiya India 450 400 PE End Feb 2016Brahmaputra Cracker and Polymer Ltd (BCPL) Lepetkata Assam India 220 220 HDPELLDPE End Q1 2016

ONGC Petro Additions (OPaL) Dahej Gujarat India 1100 340 HDPE 720HDPELLDPE Late Q2 2016

Reliance Jamnagar India 1500 750 MEG 550 LLDPE 450 LDPE End 2016

Sadara Chemical Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia 1500 350 LDPE 1080 solution PE Q2mid 2016 at earliest

Petro Rabigh Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia +300 to 1600 150 LDPEEVA 75 EPDM Apr 2016 (cracker only)

Kavian Petrochemical Bushehr Iran 1000Supply to domestic plants via west pipeline H2 20162017

Arvand Petrochemical Gachsaran Iran 1000Feeds own vinyls plants+pipeline customers H2 20162017

Total C27400

wwwiciscom 2525

Expansions in China centred on integrated coal-based projects

Source Industry

Company Location Facility

C2 capacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstreamcapacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr

Start-upschedule

Shenhua Yulin Shenmu Shaanxi MTO 300 300 PE Dec 2015Inner Mongolia ChinaCoal Mengda New Energy amp Chemical Industry

Erdos Inner Mongolia CTO 300

300HDPELLDPE Apr 2016

Shenhua Xinjiang Urumqi Xinjiang CTO 320 320 LDPE Late Q2 2016

Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Golmud Qinghai CTO 160 300 PVC Q3 2016

Fund (Changzhou) Energy amp Chemical Changzhou Jiangsu MTO 165 Q3 2016

Jiangsu Sailboat PetrochemicalLianyungang Jiangsu MTO 370

300 EVALDPE 180 EO 20 MEG Q4 2016

Total C21615 Will supply to Changzhou Dohowrsquos new 300kta SM plant

wwwiciscom 2626Source Industry

More capacity increases at crackers in NESE Asia in 2017

Company Location

C2 capacityadditions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Completion schedule

Korea Petrochemical Industry Co (KPIC)

Onsan South Korea +330 to 800 Mid 2017

Lotte Chemical TitanPasir Gudang Malaysia 90 H1 2017

CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals (CSPC)

Huizhou Guangdong China 1000

150 EO 480 EG400 HDPE 300 LLDPE 700 SM End 20172018

Total C2 1420

wwwiciscom 27Source Industry

Chinarsquos ethylene import demand in 2016 could increase to around 1550-1600kt from 2015rsquos 1516kt

wwwiciscom 2828

Arbitrage amp Mideast cargoes help offset regional supply shortfalls around 500-565kt expected in 2016

Source Industry

Saudi 170-175kt

US 130-140kt

Europe 200-250kt

Projected spot supply excludes term cargoes

wwwiciscom 29

US ethane-based derivative expansions ndash an emerging threat

wwwiciscom 30

Company LocationC2 capacity (rsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream (lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Start-up schedule

Chevron Phillips ChemicalCedar Bayou Texas 1500

500 Bimodal HDPE 500 mLLDPE at Sweeny Mid 2017

Dow Chemical Freeport Texas 1500400 ELITE PE 350 LDPE 320 elastomers 200 EPDM H1 2017

ExxonMobil Chemical Baytown Texas 1500650x2 mLLDPE plus LLDPE at Mont Belvieu H2 2017

Formosa PlasticsPoint Comfort Texas 1590

525 PE unspec 6255 LDPE1000 MEG 20172018

Occidental ChemicalMexichem Ingleside Texas 544 Feed into existing 1050 VCM Q1 2017

SasolLake Charles Louisiana 1500

450 LDPE 450 LLDPE 300EOEG 300 ethoxylatesdetergent alcohols 2018

Total C28134 Total PE 51005

2017-2018 US ethylene amp derivatives projects country to become major PE exporter

Source ICIS Chemical Business

wwwiciscom 31

Chinarsquos PE deficit to continue

wwwiciscom 32wwwiciscom 32

Asia ethylene market to remain tight in 2016

Low-cost US PE exports likely to begin in late 2017 operations of naphtha-based integrated producers in Asia may be impacted

Conclusion

wwwiciscom 33

Asiarsquos toluene and benzene trade flows

wwwiciscom 34

Drivers of Asiarsquos toluene trade flow

wwwiciscom 35wwwiciscom 35

Asiarsquos TOL prices still tracks PX but relationship may weaken on narrower TDP spreads wider toluene-naphtha gap

0

50

100

150

200

250

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

160002

-Jan

-201

422

-Jan

-201

412

-Feb

-201

404

-Mar

-201

424

-Mar

-201

411

-Apr

-201

401

-May

-201

421

-May

-201

410

-Jun

-201

430

-Jun

-201

418

-Jul

-201

407

-Aug

-201

427

-Aug

-201

416

-Sep

-201

406

-Oct

-201

424

-Oct

-201

413

-Nov

-201

403

-Dec

-201

423

-Dec

-201

421

-Jan

-201

510

-Feb

-201

504

-Mar

-201

524

-Mar

-201

513

-Apr

-201

504

-May

-201

522

-May

-201

511

-Jun

-201

501

-Jul

-201

521

-Jul

-201

511

-Aug

-201

531

-Aug

-201

518

-Sep

-201

508

-Oct

-201

528

-Oct

-201

517

-Nov

-201

507

-Dec

-201

504

-Jan

-201

622

-Jan

-201

615

-Feb

-201

604

-Mar

-201

624

-Mar

-201

6

TDP spread (U

SDtonne)

USD

tonn

e

TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Toluene FOB K PX CFR CN

CF 094

CF 095

CF = correlation factor

CF 092

CF= 093

Healthy margins prevailed in 2014 supporting the closer relationship between PX and TOL prices

Margins turned largely negative in 2015 weakening the relationship slightly Strong blend value (BV) of TOL had larger impact on prices

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 36wwwiciscom 36

Wider toluene-naphtha spread since end-2015 increased toluene selling impetus instead of downstream usage allocation

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400Price spread (U

SDtonne)

USD

tonn

e

Toluene-Naphtha spread Naphtha CFR Japan Toluene FOB South Korea

Heavy speculation low Chinese + Indian inventory healthy PX spread led to widened spread in Q1 2016

Price increases supported by start-up of UAC higher usage of TOL for TDP units in addition to summer blending season

Breakeven level

Ave = 230Ave = 170Ave = 170

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 37wwwiciscom 37

TOL heavily placed in blending pool in 2015 capping op rates of downstream TDPs 2016 situation may be reversed

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

USD

tonn

e

Toluene blend value Toluene FOB Korea prices

95-TOL CF= 090

Strong TOL BV in H1 of 2014 results in the price support from gasoline blending strengthening relationship between the two

FOB K prices consistently higher than BV difficult to find demand from blending pool

95-TOL CF= 06895-TOL CF= 090

TOL BV surpasses TOL FOB K making it possible to be placed into blending pool for most of 2015

CF = correlation factorSource ICIS

wwwiciscom 38wwwiciscom 38

Chinese inventories have heavy influence on buying interest Q1 shortage supported sellersrsquo decision to offload more TOL

Ave = 103kt Ave = 903kt Ave = 89kt

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

USD

tonne0

00 to

nnes

east China south China CFR China price Import parity price of CNY cargoes

Strong demand from gasoline blending sector and cargo delays result in 3-year low inventories

Period of strong demand

Previously overbought slow offtake after LNY

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 39

S Korearsquos importexport position for TOL dependent on TDP spreads switch in production strategies in Q1 2016

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

50

100

150

200

25003

-Jan

-201

424

-Jan

-201

414

-Feb

-201

407

-Mar

-201

428

-Mar

-201

418

-Apr

-201

409

-May

-201

430

-May

-201

420

-Jun

-201

411

-Jul

-201

401

-Aug

-201

422

-Aug

-201

412

-Sep

-201

403

-Oct

-201

424

-Oct

-201

414

-Nov

-201

405

-Dec

-201

426

-Dec

-201

423

-Jan

-201

513

-Feb

-201

506

-Mar

-201

527

-Mar

-201

517

-Apr

-201

508

-May

-201

529

-May

-201

519

-Jun

-201

510

-Jul

-201

531

-Jul

-201

521

-Aug

-201

511

-Sep

-201

502

-Oct

-201

523

-Oct

-201

513

-Nov

-201

504

-Dec

-201

525

-Dec

-201

522

-Jan

-201

612

-Feb

-201

604

-Mar

-201

625

-Mar

-201

615

-Apr

-201

6

Qty in lsquo000 tonnes

USD

tonn

e

TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Exports from S Korea Imports to S Korea

Start up of UACrsquos TDP

Slight strategy switch as low Chinese inventories strong naphtha-TOL spread since Q1 leads to stronger TOL selling interest

Overall drop in TDP spreads from mid-2014 results in selling interest switch to net exporter

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 40

Heavier downstream unit turnarounds and production adjustments led to more S Korea-origin exports

H1 2015 H1 2016

0

20

40

60

80

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Qty

in 0

00 to

nnes

South Korea exports

China Taiwan Vietnam US Japan Singapore India Others

Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 13 00Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 00 00 18 00Hyundai Cosmo TDP Daesan 00 00 00 50 200 00S Oil No 2 TDP Onsan 00 00 00 200 00 00

00 00 00 250 231 00Producer LocationLG Chem Daesan 00 00 23 23 00 00YNCC No 1 Yeosu 00 00 00 00 50 50Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 00 00 00 08 63 00Lotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 23 00 00S Oil No 2 Onsan 00 00 124 267 00 00SKGC Incheon 67 00 00 00 00 00

67 00 147 321 113 50

Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)

Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)

Source ICIS

Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 00 87Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 27 00 00 00OCI TDI Kunsan 00 06 00 00 00 00GSCX STDP Yeosu 00 00 00 583 82 00Hanwha Total TDP Daesan 00 00 222 278 00 00SKGC TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 00 49 208LG H D A Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38

38 45 288 899 169 333Producer Location Hanwha Total Daesan 00 00 153 191 00 00GSCX Yeosu 00 00 00 174 49 00Lotte Chem Yeosu 00 00 00 47 16 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 00 78 333YNCC Yeosu 00 00 33 17 00 00

00 00 186 428 143 333

Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)

Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)

wwwiciscom 41wwwiciscom 41

NE Asia and SE Asia exports to China rise since H2 2015 on healthy netbacks strong demand

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

USD

tonne

Qty

in 0

00 to

nnes

Others

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea

Import parity of domesticcargoesFOB South Korea prices

Increase in selling to China because of healthy netbacks weak TDP spread

Narrow gap results in fewer imports in line with FOB K price support from PX

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 42wwwiciscom 42

Exports from Asia to US market sporadic highly dependent on price gap gasoline blending season and Asia demand

0

10

20

30

40

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250Q

ty in 000 tonnesU

SDto

nne

Price gap (Asia prompt vs US forward) Exports from Asia to US

Open arbitrage opportunities result in increase of Asia exports

Consistent upward trend leads to selling interest

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 43wwwiciscom 43

India TOL imports mainly from SE Asia and Iran

46

23

17

37

4

2014

Singapore Thailand Iran S Korea Europe Others

2015

50

24

9

37

7

Source customs data

Total= 288kt Total= 288kt

wwwiciscom 44wwwiciscom 44

NE Asia TOL supply could outstrip demand in H2 2016 on heavier downstream turnarounds permanent shutdowns

H2 2015 H2 2016

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S Oil Onsan old TDP Onsan 00 42 42 00 00 00

00 42 42 00 00 00FCFC Aroma 2 TDP Mailiao 67 200 00 00 00 00

67 200 00 00 00 00JX Nippon Oil TDP Mizushima A 00 00 75 75 00 00

00 00 75 75 00 0067 242 117 75 00 00

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecLotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 73 25 00KPIC Ulsan 00 00 00 83 00 00S Oil No 1 Onsan 00 146 146 00 00 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 167 333 00OCI Yeosu 00 00 00 33 00 00

00 146 146 357 358 00Mitsui Chemicals Chiba 00 00 00 83 83 00JX Nippon Oil Mizushima A 00 00 117 233 00 00Tonen General Wakayama 00 00 00 69 92 00

00 00 117 385 175 00FCFC Aroma No 2 Mailiao 83 250 00 00 00 00CPC No 6 Kaohsiung 40 00 20 80 20 00CPC No3 Kaoshiung 00 00 00 00 83 55

123 250 20 80 103 55123 396 283 822 636 55

Est TOL consumption loss from KR

Est TOL consumption loss from TW

Est TOL production loss from KR

Total est consumption loss from NE Asia

Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia

CONSUMPTION (mt)

PRODUCTION (mt)

Est TOL consumption loss from JPN

Est TOL production loss from JPN

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUlsan Aromatics Center TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 1000 500 00SKGC TDP Incheon 00 00 00 83 42 00LG Chem H D A (shut since Jan) Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38

38 38 38 1122 580 38Taiyo Oil TDP cut rate only Kikuma 42 07 00 00 00 00MSNC TDI (shut since April) Omuta 65 65 65 65 65 65

107 72 65 65 65 65145 110 103 1187 645 103

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSKGC Incheon 00 00 00 133 67 00

00 00 00 133 67 00Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 00 00 108 108 00 00JFEC Chiba 00 00 14 42 00 00

00 00 122 150 00 00CPC No 7 Kaohsiung 00 00 00 27 108 00CPC No 3 Kaohsiung 110 00 00 00 00 00

110 00 00 27 108 00110 00 122 310 175 00

Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia

PRODUCTION (mt)

CONSUMPTION (mt)

Est TOL consumption loss from KR

Est TOL consumption loss from JPNTotal est consumption loss from NE Asia

Est TOL production loss from KR

Est TOL production loss from JPN

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016

Qty

in to

nnes

Total est consumption loss from NE Asia Total est production loss from NE AsiaSource ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45

Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance

Source ICIS

bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016

bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread

bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption

bull Improvements in TOL blend values

bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading

bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer

bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers

bull Other competitively priced blendstocks

bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL

bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China

TOL supply

TOL demand

Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors

wwwiciscom 46

Drivers of benzene trade flow

wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47

-60-40-200204060

500550600650700750800850900

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea

China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016

020000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000180000200000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Tonn

es

Others

MiddleEastThailand

Malaysia

Taiwan

Japan

SouthKorea

China imports

Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand

Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance

Strong appetite for imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48

Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

-

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

Pric

e ($

tonn

e)

Tonn

es

Shore tank inventories

E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity

2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite

Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains

Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49

-80-60-40-20020406080100

500550600650700750800850900950

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15

Tonn

es

OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea

Imports from Asia increase

Imports lower due to higher China prices

S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015

Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates

US imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50

Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600Ja

n-14

Feb-

14M

ar-1

4A

pr-1

4M

ay-1

4Ju

n-14

Jul-1

4A

ug-1

4Se

p-14

Oct

-14

Nov

-14

Dec

-14

Jan-

15Fe

b-15

Mar

-15

Apr

-15

May

-15

Jun-

15Ju

l-15

Aug

-15

Sep-

15O

ct-1

5N

ov-1

5D

ec-1

5Ja

n-16

Feb-

16M

ar-1

6A

pr-1

6

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)Naphtha-Benzene

Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene

$346t $193t $230t

wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51

S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32

Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300

SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15

YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37

2015 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25

S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25

SK Global Chem Incheon 200

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16

OthersTaiwanChinaUS

S Korea exports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52

Outlook increased supply likely to head to China

Source ICIS industry

Company Location BZ Start up period

Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016

Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16

Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos

(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul

Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16

Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16

Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16

Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017

Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex

Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017

Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017

KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017

Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017

Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726

Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322

Product Company Location Capacity(kta)

BZ usage Start up period

SM

Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16

Donghao China 300 240 May-16

Phenol

PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16

Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16

Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17

PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017

Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017

CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17

CPL

Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16

China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16

Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16

MDI

Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017

Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017

Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017

Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972

Consumption within China in 2016 637 655

wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53

Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season

S Korea 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75

BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0

S Korea 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5

KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26

S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13

BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3

Japan 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36

Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12

BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0

Japan 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23

Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24

JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24

BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17

Source ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54

BZ demandBZ supply

bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China

bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ

bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene

bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units

bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher

bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure

bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed

bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand

Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55

Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom

Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom

Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom

Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom

wwwiciscom 56

Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets

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wwwiciscom 57

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Page 7: Asia Olefins & Aromatics Markets –A Turning of the Tide? · PDF fileBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news, ... Saudi Arabia 1,500 350 LDPE,1,080 solution PEQ2/mid 2016

wwwiciscom 88

Test

NE Asia naphtha-based ethylene margins exceeded $700tonne in Mar full-year outlook

likely to be strong

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 99

Test

Key price drivers Q1 2016

wwwiciscom 1010

Test

Crude recovering after hitting more than 12-year low

wwwiciscom 1111

Test

Downstream prices mostly higher after H1 Feb CNY holiday price gains led by SM

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 1212

SM makersrsquo strong margins supported high ethylene prices

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 1313Source ICIS

Weak margins of most other derivatives capped ethylene price gains towards late Mar

wwwiciscom 1414Source ICIS

Supply crimped by annual cracker turnaround season starting from late FebMar

wwwiciscom 15

Impact of industry consolidation snowballs Asahi Kasei mothballs cracker in 2016

Company Location

C2 capacity losses (lsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream capacity losses(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Cracker closure date

Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Jinshan China 150 Nov 2013

Mitsubishi Chemical Kashima Japan 392 92 LLDPE May 2014

CPC Corp Kaohsiung Taiwan 500 (No 5)SD advanced to Jul 2014 from end 2015

Sumitomo Chemical Chiba Japan 415 425 SM180 PO May 2015

Asahi Kasei Mizushima Japan 500 320 SM Mid Feb 2016

Total C2 capacity losses1957Source Industry

wwwiciscom 16

Production issues curtailed SE Asia supply

Company Location

C2 capacity (lsquo 000 tonnesyr) Operating status

Shell

PulauBukom Singapore Around 960

Shut in late Nov 2015 may restart in Julearly Aug 2016

Chandra AsriCilegonIndonesia 860

Q1 run rates at 50-85 after capacity expansion in Dec 2015

Source Industry

wwwiciscom 1717

Test

Key price drivers Q2-Q4 2016

wwwiciscom 18

Crude oversupply expected to ease in H2 2016

wwwiciscom 1919Source Industry

2016 ethylene production losses from cracker turnarounds largely in Q2-Q3 overall losses down

34 YoY

wwwiciscom 2020Source Industry

Net losses after including +70kta at Asahi-Mitsubishi JV cracker

Output losses higher than 2015 after factoring in Shellrsquos Singapore cracker outage Asahirsquos cracker closure

wwwiciscom 2121Source Industry

Japan becomes structurally tighter

wwwiciscom 2222Source Industry

S Korearsquos exports likely to stabilise at low levels of around 650kt in 2016 after falling for two years

wwwiciscom 2323

End 2015-2016 ethylene capacity expansions in AsiaMideast

Saudi+1800kta

India+3270kta

Iran+2000kta Japan

+70ktaChina+1615kta

Source Industry

Total 9015 kta

Indonesia+260kta

wwwiciscom 2424Source Industry

Cracker expansions concentrated in IndiaMideast mostly integrated

Company Location

C2 capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr) Start-up schedule

Chandra Asri Cilegon Indonesia +260 to 860 Dec 2015Asahi Kasei Mitsubishi Chemical Ethylene Corp Mizushima Japan +70 to 570 1 Apr 2016GAIL Auraiya India 450 400 PE End Feb 2016Brahmaputra Cracker and Polymer Ltd (BCPL) Lepetkata Assam India 220 220 HDPELLDPE End Q1 2016

ONGC Petro Additions (OPaL) Dahej Gujarat India 1100 340 HDPE 720HDPELLDPE Late Q2 2016

Reliance Jamnagar India 1500 750 MEG 550 LLDPE 450 LDPE End 2016

Sadara Chemical Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia 1500 350 LDPE 1080 solution PE Q2mid 2016 at earliest

Petro Rabigh Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia +300 to 1600 150 LDPEEVA 75 EPDM Apr 2016 (cracker only)

Kavian Petrochemical Bushehr Iran 1000Supply to domestic plants via west pipeline H2 20162017

Arvand Petrochemical Gachsaran Iran 1000Feeds own vinyls plants+pipeline customers H2 20162017

Total C27400

wwwiciscom 2525

Expansions in China centred on integrated coal-based projects

Source Industry

Company Location Facility

C2 capacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstreamcapacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr

Start-upschedule

Shenhua Yulin Shenmu Shaanxi MTO 300 300 PE Dec 2015Inner Mongolia ChinaCoal Mengda New Energy amp Chemical Industry

Erdos Inner Mongolia CTO 300

300HDPELLDPE Apr 2016

Shenhua Xinjiang Urumqi Xinjiang CTO 320 320 LDPE Late Q2 2016

Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Golmud Qinghai CTO 160 300 PVC Q3 2016

Fund (Changzhou) Energy amp Chemical Changzhou Jiangsu MTO 165 Q3 2016

Jiangsu Sailboat PetrochemicalLianyungang Jiangsu MTO 370

300 EVALDPE 180 EO 20 MEG Q4 2016

Total C21615 Will supply to Changzhou Dohowrsquos new 300kta SM plant

wwwiciscom 2626Source Industry

More capacity increases at crackers in NESE Asia in 2017

Company Location

C2 capacityadditions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Completion schedule

Korea Petrochemical Industry Co (KPIC)

Onsan South Korea +330 to 800 Mid 2017

Lotte Chemical TitanPasir Gudang Malaysia 90 H1 2017

CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals (CSPC)

Huizhou Guangdong China 1000

150 EO 480 EG400 HDPE 300 LLDPE 700 SM End 20172018

Total C2 1420

wwwiciscom 27Source Industry

Chinarsquos ethylene import demand in 2016 could increase to around 1550-1600kt from 2015rsquos 1516kt

wwwiciscom 2828

Arbitrage amp Mideast cargoes help offset regional supply shortfalls around 500-565kt expected in 2016

Source Industry

Saudi 170-175kt

US 130-140kt

Europe 200-250kt

Projected spot supply excludes term cargoes

wwwiciscom 29

US ethane-based derivative expansions ndash an emerging threat

wwwiciscom 30

Company LocationC2 capacity (rsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream (lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Start-up schedule

Chevron Phillips ChemicalCedar Bayou Texas 1500

500 Bimodal HDPE 500 mLLDPE at Sweeny Mid 2017

Dow Chemical Freeport Texas 1500400 ELITE PE 350 LDPE 320 elastomers 200 EPDM H1 2017

ExxonMobil Chemical Baytown Texas 1500650x2 mLLDPE plus LLDPE at Mont Belvieu H2 2017

Formosa PlasticsPoint Comfort Texas 1590

525 PE unspec 6255 LDPE1000 MEG 20172018

Occidental ChemicalMexichem Ingleside Texas 544 Feed into existing 1050 VCM Q1 2017

SasolLake Charles Louisiana 1500

450 LDPE 450 LLDPE 300EOEG 300 ethoxylatesdetergent alcohols 2018

Total C28134 Total PE 51005

2017-2018 US ethylene amp derivatives projects country to become major PE exporter

Source ICIS Chemical Business

wwwiciscom 31

Chinarsquos PE deficit to continue

wwwiciscom 32wwwiciscom 32

Asia ethylene market to remain tight in 2016

Low-cost US PE exports likely to begin in late 2017 operations of naphtha-based integrated producers in Asia may be impacted

Conclusion

wwwiciscom 33

Asiarsquos toluene and benzene trade flows

wwwiciscom 34

Drivers of Asiarsquos toluene trade flow

wwwiciscom 35wwwiciscom 35

Asiarsquos TOL prices still tracks PX but relationship may weaken on narrower TDP spreads wider toluene-naphtha gap

0

50

100

150

200

250

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

160002

-Jan

-201

422

-Jan

-201

412

-Feb

-201

404

-Mar

-201

424

-Mar

-201

411

-Apr

-201

401

-May

-201

421

-May

-201

410

-Jun

-201

430

-Jun

-201

418

-Jul

-201

407

-Aug

-201

427

-Aug

-201

416

-Sep

-201

406

-Oct

-201

424

-Oct

-201

413

-Nov

-201

403

-Dec

-201

423

-Dec

-201

421

-Jan

-201

510

-Feb

-201

504

-Mar

-201

524

-Mar

-201

513

-Apr

-201

504

-May

-201

522

-May

-201

511

-Jun

-201

501

-Jul

-201

521

-Jul

-201

511

-Aug

-201

531

-Aug

-201

518

-Sep

-201

508

-Oct

-201

528

-Oct

-201

517

-Nov

-201

507

-Dec

-201

504

-Jan

-201

622

-Jan

-201

615

-Feb

-201

604

-Mar

-201

624

-Mar

-201

6

TDP spread (U

SDtonne)

USD

tonn

e

TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Toluene FOB K PX CFR CN

CF 094

CF 095

CF = correlation factor

CF 092

CF= 093

Healthy margins prevailed in 2014 supporting the closer relationship between PX and TOL prices

Margins turned largely negative in 2015 weakening the relationship slightly Strong blend value (BV) of TOL had larger impact on prices

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 36wwwiciscom 36

Wider toluene-naphtha spread since end-2015 increased toluene selling impetus instead of downstream usage allocation

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400Price spread (U

SDtonne)

USD

tonn

e

Toluene-Naphtha spread Naphtha CFR Japan Toluene FOB South Korea

Heavy speculation low Chinese + Indian inventory healthy PX spread led to widened spread in Q1 2016

Price increases supported by start-up of UAC higher usage of TOL for TDP units in addition to summer blending season

Breakeven level

Ave = 230Ave = 170Ave = 170

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 37wwwiciscom 37

TOL heavily placed in blending pool in 2015 capping op rates of downstream TDPs 2016 situation may be reversed

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

USD

tonn

e

Toluene blend value Toluene FOB Korea prices

95-TOL CF= 090

Strong TOL BV in H1 of 2014 results in the price support from gasoline blending strengthening relationship between the two

FOB K prices consistently higher than BV difficult to find demand from blending pool

95-TOL CF= 06895-TOL CF= 090

TOL BV surpasses TOL FOB K making it possible to be placed into blending pool for most of 2015

CF = correlation factorSource ICIS

wwwiciscom 38wwwiciscom 38

Chinese inventories have heavy influence on buying interest Q1 shortage supported sellersrsquo decision to offload more TOL

Ave = 103kt Ave = 903kt Ave = 89kt

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

USD

tonne0

00 to

nnes

east China south China CFR China price Import parity price of CNY cargoes

Strong demand from gasoline blending sector and cargo delays result in 3-year low inventories

Period of strong demand

Previously overbought slow offtake after LNY

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 39

S Korearsquos importexport position for TOL dependent on TDP spreads switch in production strategies in Q1 2016

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

50

100

150

200

25003

-Jan

-201

424

-Jan

-201

414

-Feb

-201

407

-Mar

-201

428

-Mar

-201

418

-Apr

-201

409

-May

-201

430

-May

-201

420

-Jun

-201

411

-Jul

-201

401

-Aug

-201

422

-Aug

-201

412

-Sep

-201

403

-Oct

-201

424

-Oct

-201

414

-Nov

-201

405

-Dec

-201

426

-Dec

-201

423

-Jan

-201

513

-Feb

-201

506

-Mar

-201

527

-Mar

-201

517

-Apr

-201

508

-May

-201

529

-May

-201

519

-Jun

-201

510

-Jul

-201

531

-Jul

-201

521

-Aug

-201

511

-Sep

-201

502

-Oct

-201

523

-Oct

-201

513

-Nov

-201

504

-Dec

-201

525

-Dec

-201

522

-Jan

-201

612

-Feb

-201

604

-Mar

-201

625

-Mar

-201

615

-Apr

-201

6

Qty in lsquo000 tonnes

USD

tonn

e

TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Exports from S Korea Imports to S Korea

Start up of UACrsquos TDP

Slight strategy switch as low Chinese inventories strong naphtha-TOL spread since Q1 leads to stronger TOL selling interest

Overall drop in TDP spreads from mid-2014 results in selling interest switch to net exporter

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 40

Heavier downstream unit turnarounds and production adjustments led to more S Korea-origin exports

H1 2015 H1 2016

0

20

40

60

80

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Qty

in 0

00 to

nnes

South Korea exports

China Taiwan Vietnam US Japan Singapore India Others

Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 13 00Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 00 00 18 00Hyundai Cosmo TDP Daesan 00 00 00 50 200 00S Oil No 2 TDP Onsan 00 00 00 200 00 00

00 00 00 250 231 00Producer LocationLG Chem Daesan 00 00 23 23 00 00YNCC No 1 Yeosu 00 00 00 00 50 50Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 00 00 00 08 63 00Lotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 23 00 00S Oil No 2 Onsan 00 00 124 267 00 00SKGC Incheon 67 00 00 00 00 00

67 00 147 321 113 50

Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)

Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)

Source ICIS

Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 00 87Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 27 00 00 00OCI TDI Kunsan 00 06 00 00 00 00GSCX STDP Yeosu 00 00 00 583 82 00Hanwha Total TDP Daesan 00 00 222 278 00 00SKGC TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 00 49 208LG H D A Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38

38 45 288 899 169 333Producer Location Hanwha Total Daesan 00 00 153 191 00 00GSCX Yeosu 00 00 00 174 49 00Lotte Chem Yeosu 00 00 00 47 16 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 00 78 333YNCC Yeosu 00 00 33 17 00 00

00 00 186 428 143 333

Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)

Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)

wwwiciscom 41wwwiciscom 41

NE Asia and SE Asia exports to China rise since H2 2015 on healthy netbacks strong demand

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

USD

tonne

Qty

in 0

00 to

nnes

Others

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea

Import parity of domesticcargoesFOB South Korea prices

Increase in selling to China because of healthy netbacks weak TDP spread

Narrow gap results in fewer imports in line with FOB K price support from PX

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 42wwwiciscom 42

Exports from Asia to US market sporadic highly dependent on price gap gasoline blending season and Asia demand

0

10

20

30

40

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250Q

ty in 000 tonnesU

SDto

nne

Price gap (Asia prompt vs US forward) Exports from Asia to US

Open arbitrage opportunities result in increase of Asia exports

Consistent upward trend leads to selling interest

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 43wwwiciscom 43

India TOL imports mainly from SE Asia and Iran

46

23

17

37

4

2014

Singapore Thailand Iran S Korea Europe Others

2015

50

24

9

37

7

Source customs data

Total= 288kt Total= 288kt

wwwiciscom 44wwwiciscom 44

NE Asia TOL supply could outstrip demand in H2 2016 on heavier downstream turnarounds permanent shutdowns

H2 2015 H2 2016

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S Oil Onsan old TDP Onsan 00 42 42 00 00 00

00 42 42 00 00 00FCFC Aroma 2 TDP Mailiao 67 200 00 00 00 00

67 200 00 00 00 00JX Nippon Oil TDP Mizushima A 00 00 75 75 00 00

00 00 75 75 00 0067 242 117 75 00 00

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecLotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 73 25 00KPIC Ulsan 00 00 00 83 00 00S Oil No 1 Onsan 00 146 146 00 00 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 167 333 00OCI Yeosu 00 00 00 33 00 00

00 146 146 357 358 00Mitsui Chemicals Chiba 00 00 00 83 83 00JX Nippon Oil Mizushima A 00 00 117 233 00 00Tonen General Wakayama 00 00 00 69 92 00

00 00 117 385 175 00FCFC Aroma No 2 Mailiao 83 250 00 00 00 00CPC No 6 Kaohsiung 40 00 20 80 20 00CPC No3 Kaoshiung 00 00 00 00 83 55

123 250 20 80 103 55123 396 283 822 636 55

Est TOL consumption loss from KR

Est TOL consumption loss from TW

Est TOL production loss from KR

Total est consumption loss from NE Asia

Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia

CONSUMPTION (mt)

PRODUCTION (mt)

Est TOL consumption loss from JPN

Est TOL production loss from JPN

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUlsan Aromatics Center TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 1000 500 00SKGC TDP Incheon 00 00 00 83 42 00LG Chem H D A (shut since Jan) Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38

38 38 38 1122 580 38Taiyo Oil TDP cut rate only Kikuma 42 07 00 00 00 00MSNC TDI (shut since April) Omuta 65 65 65 65 65 65

107 72 65 65 65 65145 110 103 1187 645 103

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSKGC Incheon 00 00 00 133 67 00

00 00 00 133 67 00Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 00 00 108 108 00 00JFEC Chiba 00 00 14 42 00 00

00 00 122 150 00 00CPC No 7 Kaohsiung 00 00 00 27 108 00CPC No 3 Kaohsiung 110 00 00 00 00 00

110 00 00 27 108 00110 00 122 310 175 00

Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia

PRODUCTION (mt)

CONSUMPTION (mt)

Est TOL consumption loss from KR

Est TOL consumption loss from JPNTotal est consumption loss from NE Asia

Est TOL production loss from KR

Est TOL production loss from JPN

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016

Qty

in to

nnes

Total est consumption loss from NE Asia Total est production loss from NE AsiaSource ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45

Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance

Source ICIS

bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016

bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread

bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption

bull Improvements in TOL blend values

bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading

bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer

bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers

bull Other competitively priced blendstocks

bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL

bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China

TOL supply

TOL demand

Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors

wwwiciscom 46

Drivers of benzene trade flow

wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47

-60-40-200204060

500550600650700750800850900

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea

China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016

020000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000180000200000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Tonn

es

Others

MiddleEastThailand

Malaysia

Taiwan

Japan

SouthKorea

China imports

Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand

Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance

Strong appetite for imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48

Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

-

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

Pric

e ($

tonn

e)

Tonn

es

Shore tank inventories

E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity

2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite

Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains

Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49

-80-60-40-20020406080100

500550600650700750800850900950

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15

Tonn

es

OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea

Imports from Asia increase

Imports lower due to higher China prices

S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015

Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates

US imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50

Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600Ja

n-14

Feb-

14M

ar-1

4A

pr-1

4M

ay-1

4Ju

n-14

Jul-1

4A

ug-1

4Se

p-14

Oct

-14

Nov

-14

Dec

-14

Jan-

15Fe

b-15

Mar

-15

Apr

-15

May

-15

Jun-

15Ju

l-15

Aug

-15

Sep-

15O

ct-1

5N

ov-1

5D

ec-1

5Ja

n-16

Feb-

16M

ar-1

6A

pr-1

6

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)Naphtha-Benzene

Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene

$346t $193t $230t

wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51

S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32

Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300

SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15

YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37

2015 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25

S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25

SK Global Chem Incheon 200

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16

OthersTaiwanChinaUS

S Korea exports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52

Outlook increased supply likely to head to China

Source ICIS industry

Company Location BZ Start up period

Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016

Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16

Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos

(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul

Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16

Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16

Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16

Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017

Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex

Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017

Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017

KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017

Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017

Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726

Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322

Product Company Location Capacity(kta)

BZ usage Start up period

SM

Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16

Donghao China 300 240 May-16

Phenol

PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16

Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16

Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17

PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017

Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017

CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17

CPL

Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16

China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16

Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16

MDI

Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017

Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017

Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017

Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972

Consumption within China in 2016 637 655

wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53

Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season

S Korea 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75

BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0

S Korea 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5

KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26

S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13

BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3

Japan 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36

Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12

BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0

Japan 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23

Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24

JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24

BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17

Source ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54

BZ demandBZ supply

bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China

bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ

bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene

bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units

bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher

bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure

bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed

bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand

Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55

Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom

Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom

Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom

Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom

wwwiciscom 56

Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets

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wwwiciscom 57

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Page 8: Asia Olefins & Aromatics Markets –A Turning of the Tide? · PDF fileBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news, ... Saudi Arabia 1,500 350 LDPE,1,080 solution PEQ2/mid 2016

wwwiciscom 99

Test

Key price drivers Q1 2016

wwwiciscom 1010

Test

Crude recovering after hitting more than 12-year low

wwwiciscom 1111

Test

Downstream prices mostly higher after H1 Feb CNY holiday price gains led by SM

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 1212

SM makersrsquo strong margins supported high ethylene prices

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 1313Source ICIS

Weak margins of most other derivatives capped ethylene price gains towards late Mar

wwwiciscom 1414Source ICIS

Supply crimped by annual cracker turnaround season starting from late FebMar

wwwiciscom 15

Impact of industry consolidation snowballs Asahi Kasei mothballs cracker in 2016

Company Location

C2 capacity losses (lsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream capacity losses(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Cracker closure date

Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Jinshan China 150 Nov 2013

Mitsubishi Chemical Kashima Japan 392 92 LLDPE May 2014

CPC Corp Kaohsiung Taiwan 500 (No 5)SD advanced to Jul 2014 from end 2015

Sumitomo Chemical Chiba Japan 415 425 SM180 PO May 2015

Asahi Kasei Mizushima Japan 500 320 SM Mid Feb 2016

Total C2 capacity losses1957Source Industry

wwwiciscom 16

Production issues curtailed SE Asia supply

Company Location

C2 capacity (lsquo 000 tonnesyr) Operating status

Shell

PulauBukom Singapore Around 960

Shut in late Nov 2015 may restart in Julearly Aug 2016

Chandra AsriCilegonIndonesia 860

Q1 run rates at 50-85 after capacity expansion in Dec 2015

Source Industry

wwwiciscom 1717

Test

Key price drivers Q2-Q4 2016

wwwiciscom 18

Crude oversupply expected to ease in H2 2016

wwwiciscom 1919Source Industry

2016 ethylene production losses from cracker turnarounds largely in Q2-Q3 overall losses down

34 YoY

wwwiciscom 2020Source Industry

Net losses after including +70kta at Asahi-Mitsubishi JV cracker

Output losses higher than 2015 after factoring in Shellrsquos Singapore cracker outage Asahirsquos cracker closure

wwwiciscom 2121Source Industry

Japan becomes structurally tighter

wwwiciscom 2222Source Industry

S Korearsquos exports likely to stabilise at low levels of around 650kt in 2016 after falling for two years

wwwiciscom 2323

End 2015-2016 ethylene capacity expansions in AsiaMideast

Saudi+1800kta

India+3270kta

Iran+2000kta Japan

+70ktaChina+1615kta

Source Industry

Total 9015 kta

Indonesia+260kta

wwwiciscom 2424Source Industry

Cracker expansions concentrated in IndiaMideast mostly integrated

Company Location

C2 capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr) Start-up schedule

Chandra Asri Cilegon Indonesia +260 to 860 Dec 2015Asahi Kasei Mitsubishi Chemical Ethylene Corp Mizushima Japan +70 to 570 1 Apr 2016GAIL Auraiya India 450 400 PE End Feb 2016Brahmaputra Cracker and Polymer Ltd (BCPL) Lepetkata Assam India 220 220 HDPELLDPE End Q1 2016

ONGC Petro Additions (OPaL) Dahej Gujarat India 1100 340 HDPE 720HDPELLDPE Late Q2 2016

Reliance Jamnagar India 1500 750 MEG 550 LLDPE 450 LDPE End 2016

Sadara Chemical Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia 1500 350 LDPE 1080 solution PE Q2mid 2016 at earliest

Petro Rabigh Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia +300 to 1600 150 LDPEEVA 75 EPDM Apr 2016 (cracker only)

Kavian Petrochemical Bushehr Iran 1000Supply to domestic plants via west pipeline H2 20162017

Arvand Petrochemical Gachsaran Iran 1000Feeds own vinyls plants+pipeline customers H2 20162017

Total C27400

wwwiciscom 2525

Expansions in China centred on integrated coal-based projects

Source Industry

Company Location Facility

C2 capacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstreamcapacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr

Start-upschedule

Shenhua Yulin Shenmu Shaanxi MTO 300 300 PE Dec 2015Inner Mongolia ChinaCoal Mengda New Energy amp Chemical Industry

Erdos Inner Mongolia CTO 300

300HDPELLDPE Apr 2016

Shenhua Xinjiang Urumqi Xinjiang CTO 320 320 LDPE Late Q2 2016

Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Golmud Qinghai CTO 160 300 PVC Q3 2016

Fund (Changzhou) Energy amp Chemical Changzhou Jiangsu MTO 165 Q3 2016

Jiangsu Sailboat PetrochemicalLianyungang Jiangsu MTO 370

300 EVALDPE 180 EO 20 MEG Q4 2016

Total C21615 Will supply to Changzhou Dohowrsquos new 300kta SM plant

wwwiciscom 2626Source Industry

More capacity increases at crackers in NESE Asia in 2017

Company Location

C2 capacityadditions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Completion schedule

Korea Petrochemical Industry Co (KPIC)

Onsan South Korea +330 to 800 Mid 2017

Lotte Chemical TitanPasir Gudang Malaysia 90 H1 2017

CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals (CSPC)

Huizhou Guangdong China 1000

150 EO 480 EG400 HDPE 300 LLDPE 700 SM End 20172018

Total C2 1420

wwwiciscom 27Source Industry

Chinarsquos ethylene import demand in 2016 could increase to around 1550-1600kt from 2015rsquos 1516kt

wwwiciscom 2828

Arbitrage amp Mideast cargoes help offset regional supply shortfalls around 500-565kt expected in 2016

Source Industry

Saudi 170-175kt

US 130-140kt

Europe 200-250kt

Projected spot supply excludes term cargoes

wwwiciscom 29

US ethane-based derivative expansions ndash an emerging threat

wwwiciscom 30

Company LocationC2 capacity (rsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream (lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Start-up schedule

Chevron Phillips ChemicalCedar Bayou Texas 1500

500 Bimodal HDPE 500 mLLDPE at Sweeny Mid 2017

Dow Chemical Freeport Texas 1500400 ELITE PE 350 LDPE 320 elastomers 200 EPDM H1 2017

ExxonMobil Chemical Baytown Texas 1500650x2 mLLDPE plus LLDPE at Mont Belvieu H2 2017

Formosa PlasticsPoint Comfort Texas 1590

525 PE unspec 6255 LDPE1000 MEG 20172018

Occidental ChemicalMexichem Ingleside Texas 544 Feed into existing 1050 VCM Q1 2017

SasolLake Charles Louisiana 1500

450 LDPE 450 LLDPE 300EOEG 300 ethoxylatesdetergent alcohols 2018

Total C28134 Total PE 51005

2017-2018 US ethylene amp derivatives projects country to become major PE exporter

Source ICIS Chemical Business

wwwiciscom 31

Chinarsquos PE deficit to continue

wwwiciscom 32wwwiciscom 32

Asia ethylene market to remain tight in 2016

Low-cost US PE exports likely to begin in late 2017 operations of naphtha-based integrated producers in Asia may be impacted

Conclusion

wwwiciscom 33

Asiarsquos toluene and benzene trade flows

wwwiciscom 34

Drivers of Asiarsquos toluene trade flow

wwwiciscom 35wwwiciscom 35

Asiarsquos TOL prices still tracks PX but relationship may weaken on narrower TDP spreads wider toluene-naphtha gap

0

50

100

150

200

250

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

160002

-Jan

-201

422

-Jan

-201

412

-Feb

-201

404

-Mar

-201

424

-Mar

-201

411

-Apr

-201

401

-May

-201

421

-May

-201

410

-Jun

-201

430

-Jun

-201

418

-Jul

-201

407

-Aug

-201

427

-Aug

-201

416

-Sep

-201

406

-Oct

-201

424

-Oct

-201

413

-Nov

-201

403

-Dec

-201

423

-Dec

-201

421

-Jan

-201

510

-Feb

-201

504

-Mar

-201

524

-Mar

-201

513

-Apr

-201

504

-May

-201

522

-May

-201

511

-Jun

-201

501

-Jul

-201

521

-Jul

-201

511

-Aug

-201

531

-Aug

-201

518

-Sep

-201

508

-Oct

-201

528

-Oct

-201

517

-Nov

-201

507

-Dec

-201

504

-Jan

-201

622

-Jan

-201

615

-Feb

-201

604

-Mar

-201

624

-Mar

-201

6

TDP spread (U

SDtonne)

USD

tonn

e

TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Toluene FOB K PX CFR CN

CF 094

CF 095

CF = correlation factor

CF 092

CF= 093

Healthy margins prevailed in 2014 supporting the closer relationship between PX and TOL prices

Margins turned largely negative in 2015 weakening the relationship slightly Strong blend value (BV) of TOL had larger impact on prices

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 36wwwiciscom 36

Wider toluene-naphtha spread since end-2015 increased toluene selling impetus instead of downstream usage allocation

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400Price spread (U

SDtonne)

USD

tonn

e

Toluene-Naphtha spread Naphtha CFR Japan Toluene FOB South Korea

Heavy speculation low Chinese + Indian inventory healthy PX spread led to widened spread in Q1 2016

Price increases supported by start-up of UAC higher usage of TOL for TDP units in addition to summer blending season

Breakeven level

Ave = 230Ave = 170Ave = 170

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 37wwwiciscom 37

TOL heavily placed in blending pool in 2015 capping op rates of downstream TDPs 2016 situation may be reversed

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

USD

tonn

e

Toluene blend value Toluene FOB Korea prices

95-TOL CF= 090

Strong TOL BV in H1 of 2014 results in the price support from gasoline blending strengthening relationship between the two

FOB K prices consistently higher than BV difficult to find demand from blending pool

95-TOL CF= 06895-TOL CF= 090

TOL BV surpasses TOL FOB K making it possible to be placed into blending pool for most of 2015

CF = correlation factorSource ICIS

wwwiciscom 38wwwiciscom 38

Chinese inventories have heavy influence on buying interest Q1 shortage supported sellersrsquo decision to offload more TOL

Ave = 103kt Ave = 903kt Ave = 89kt

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

USD

tonne0

00 to

nnes

east China south China CFR China price Import parity price of CNY cargoes

Strong demand from gasoline blending sector and cargo delays result in 3-year low inventories

Period of strong demand

Previously overbought slow offtake after LNY

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 39

S Korearsquos importexport position for TOL dependent on TDP spreads switch in production strategies in Q1 2016

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

50

100

150

200

25003

-Jan

-201

424

-Jan

-201

414

-Feb

-201

407

-Mar

-201

428

-Mar

-201

418

-Apr

-201

409

-May

-201

430

-May

-201

420

-Jun

-201

411

-Jul

-201

401

-Aug

-201

422

-Aug

-201

412

-Sep

-201

403

-Oct

-201

424

-Oct

-201

414

-Nov

-201

405

-Dec

-201

426

-Dec

-201

423

-Jan

-201

513

-Feb

-201

506

-Mar

-201

527

-Mar

-201

517

-Apr

-201

508

-May

-201

529

-May

-201

519

-Jun

-201

510

-Jul

-201

531

-Jul

-201

521

-Aug

-201

511

-Sep

-201

502

-Oct

-201

523

-Oct

-201

513

-Nov

-201

504

-Dec

-201

525

-Dec

-201

522

-Jan

-201

612

-Feb

-201

604

-Mar

-201

625

-Mar

-201

615

-Apr

-201

6

Qty in lsquo000 tonnes

USD

tonn

e

TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Exports from S Korea Imports to S Korea

Start up of UACrsquos TDP

Slight strategy switch as low Chinese inventories strong naphtha-TOL spread since Q1 leads to stronger TOL selling interest

Overall drop in TDP spreads from mid-2014 results in selling interest switch to net exporter

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 40

Heavier downstream unit turnarounds and production adjustments led to more S Korea-origin exports

H1 2015 H1 2016

0

20

40

60

80

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Qty

in 0

00 to

nnes

South Korea exports

China Taiwan Vietnam US Japan Singapore India Others

Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 13 00Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 00 00 18 00Hyundai Cosmo TDP Daesan 00 00 00 50 200 00S Oil No 2 TDP Onsan 00 00 00 200 00 00

00 00 00 250 231 00Producer LocationLG Chem Daesan 00 00 23 23 00 00YNCC No 1 Yeosu 00 00 00 00 50 50Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 00 00 00 08 63 00Lotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 23 00 00S Oil No 2 Onsan 00 00 124 267 00 00SKGC Incheon 67 00 00 00 00 00

67 00 147 321 113 50

Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)

Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)

Source ICIS

Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 00 87Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 27 00 00 00OCI TDI Kunsan 00 06 00 00 00 00GSCX STDP Yeosu 00 00 00 583 82 00Hanwha Total TDP Daesan 00 00 222 278 00 00SKGC TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 00 49 208LG H D A Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38

38 45 288 899 169 333Producer Location Hanwha Total Daesan 00 00 153 191 00 00GSCX Yeosu 00 00 00 174 49 00Lotte Chem Yeosu 00 00 00 47 16 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 00 78 333YNCC Yeosu 00 00 33 17 00 00

00 00 186 428 143 333

Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)

Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)

wwwiciscom 41wwwiciscom 41

NE Asia and SE Asia exports to China rise since H2 2015 on healthy netbacks strong demand

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

USD

tonne

Qty

in 0

00 to

nnes

Others

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea

Import parity of domesticcargoesFOB South Korea prices

Increase in selling to China because of healthy netbacks weak TDP spread

Narrow gap results in fewer imports in line with FOB K price support from PX

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 42wwwiciscom 42

Exports from Asia to US market sporadic highly dependent on price gap gasoline blending season and Asia demand

0

10

20

30

40

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250Q

ty in 000 tonnesU

SDto

nne

Price gap (Asia prompt vs US forward) Exports from Asia to US

Open arbitrage opportunities result in increase of Asia exports

Consistent upward trend leads to selling interest

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 43wwwiciscom 43

India TOL imports mainly from SE Asia and Iran

46

23

17

37

4

2014

Singapore Thailand Iran S Korea Europe Others

2015

50

24

9

37

7

Source customs data

Total= 288kt Total= 288kt

wwwiciscom 44wwwiciscom 44

NE Asia TOL supply could outstrip demand in H2 2016 on heavier downstream turnarounds permanent shutdowns

H2 2015 H2 2016

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S Oil Onsan old TDP Onsan 00 42 42 00 00 00

00 42 42 00 00 00FCFC Aroma 2 TDP Mailiao 67 200 00 00 00 00

67 200 00 00 00 00JX Nippon Oil TDP Mizushima A 00 00 75 75 00 00

00 00 75 75 00 0067 242 117 75 00 00

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecLotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 73 25 00KPIC Ulsan 00 00 00 83 00 00S Oil No 1 Onsan 00 146 146 00 00 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 167 333 00OCI Yeosu 00 00 00 33 00 00

00 146 146 357 358 00Mitsui Chemicals Chiba 00 00 00 83 83 00JX Nippon Oil Mizushima A 00 00 117 233 00 00Tonen General Wakayama 00 00 00 69 92 00

00 00 117 385 175 00FCFC Aroma No 2 Mailiao 83 250 00 00 00 00CPC No 6 Kaohsiung 40 00 20 80 20 00CPC No3 Kaoshiung 00 00 00 00 83 55

123 250 20 80 103 55123 396 283 822 636 55

Est TOL consumption loss from KR

Est TOL consumption loss from TW

Est TOL production loss from KR

Total est consumption loss from NE Asia

Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia

CONSUMPTION (mt)

PRODUCTION (mt)

Est TOL consumption loss from JPN

Est TOL production loss from JPN

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUlsan Aromatics Center TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 1000 500 00SKGC TDP Incheon 00 00 00 83 42 00LG Chem H D A (shut since Jan) Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38

38 38 38 1122 580 38Taiyo Oil TDP cut rate only Kikuma 42 07 00 00 00 00MSNC TDI (shut since April) Omuta 65 65 65 65 65 65

107 72 65 65 65 65145 110 103 1187 645 103

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSKGC Incheon 00 00 00 133 67 00

00 00 00 133 67 00Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 00 00 108 108 00 00JFEC Chiba 00 00 14 42 00 00

00 00 122 150 00 00CPC No 7 Kaohsiung 00 00 00 27 108 00CPC No 3 Kaohsiung 110 00 00 00 00 00

110 00 00 27 108 00110 00 122 310 175 00

Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia

PRODUCTION (mt)

CONSUMPTION (mt)

Est TOL consumption loss from KR

Est TOL consumption loss from JPNTotal est consumption loss from NE Asia

Est TOL production loss from KR

Est TOL production loss from JPN

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016

Qty

in to

nnes

Total est consumption loss from NE Asia Total est production loss from NE AsiaSource ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45

Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance

Source ICIS

bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016

bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread

bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption

bull Improvements in TOL blend values

bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading

bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer

bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers

bull Other competitively priced blendstocks

bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL

bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China

TOL supply

TOL demand

Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors

wwwiciscom 46

Drivers of benzene trade flow

wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47

-60-40-200204060

500550600650700750800850900

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea

China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016

020000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000180000200000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Tonn

es

Others

MiddleEastThailand

Malaysia

Taiwan

Japan

SouthKorea

China imports

Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand

Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance

Strong appetite for imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48

Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

-

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

Pric

e ($

tonn

e)

Tonn

es

Shore tank inventories

E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity

2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite

Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains

Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49

-80-60-40-20020406080100

500550600650700750800850900950

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15

Tonn

es

OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea

Imports from Asia increase

Imports lower due to higher China prices

S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015

Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates

US imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50

Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600Ja

n-14

Feb-

14M

ar-1

4A

pr-1

4M

ay-1

4Ju

n-14

Jul-1

4A

ug-1

4Se

p-14

Oct

-14

Nov

-14

Dec

-14

Jan-

15Fe

b-15

Mar

-15

Apr

-15

May

-15

Jun-

15Ju

l-15

Aug

-15

Sep-

15O

ct-1

5N

ov-1

5D

ec-1

5Ja

n-16

Feb-

16M

ar-1

6A

pr-1

6

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)Naphtha-Benzene

Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene

$346t $193t $230t

wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51

S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32

Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300

SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15

YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37

2015 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25

S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25

SK Global Chem Incheon 200

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16

OthersTaiwanChinaUS

S Korea exports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52

Outlook increased supply likely to head to China

Source ICIS industry

Company Location BZ Start up period

Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016

Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16

Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos

(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul

Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16

Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16

Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16

Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017

Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex

Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017

Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017

KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017

Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017

Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726

Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322

Product Company Location Capacity(kta)

BZ usage Start up period

SM

Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16

Donghao China 300 240 May-16

Phenol

PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16

Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16

Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17

PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017

Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017

CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17

CPL

Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16

China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16

Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16

MDI

Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017

Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017

Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017

Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972

Consumption within China in 2016 637 655

wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53

Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season

S Korea 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75

BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0

S Korea 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5

KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26

S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13

BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3

Japan 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36

Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12

BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0

Japan 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23

Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24

JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24

BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17

Source ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54

BZ demandBZ supply

bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China

bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ

bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene

bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units

bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher

bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure

bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed

bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand

Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55

Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom

Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom

Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom

Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom

wwwiciscom 56

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wwwiciscom 57

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Page 9: Asia Olefins & Aromatics Markets –A Turning of the Tide? · PDF fileBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news, ... Saudi Arabia 1,500 350 LDPE,1,080 solution PEQ2/mid 2016

wwwiciscom 1010

Test

Crude recovering after hitting more than 12-year low

wwwiciscom 1111

Test

Downstream prices mostly higher after H1 Feb CNY holiday price gains led by SM

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 1212

SM makersrsquo strong margins supported high ethylene prices

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 1313Source ICIS

Weak margins of most other derivatives capped ethylene price gains towards late Mar

wwwiciscom 1414Source ICIS

Supply crimped by annual cracker turnaround season starting from late FebMar

wwwiciscom 15

Impact of industry consolidation snowballs Asahi Kasei mothballs cracker in 2016

Company Location

C2 capacity losses (lsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream capacity losses(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Cracker closure date

Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Jinshan China 150 Nov 2013

Mitsubishi Chemical Kashima Japan 392 92 LLDPE May 2014

CPC Corp Kaohsiung Taiwan 500 (No 5)SD advanced to Jul 2014 from end 2015

Sumitomo Chemical Chiba Japan 415 425 SM180 PO May 2015

Asahi Kasei Mizushima Japan 500 320 SM Mid Feb 2016

Total C2 capacity losses1957Source Industry

wwwiciscom 16

Production issues curtailed SE Asia supply

Company Location

C2 capacity (lsquo 000 tonnesyr) Operating status

Shell

PulauBukom Singapore Around 960

Shut in late Nov 2015 may restart in Julearly Aug 2016

Chandra AsriCilegonIndonesia 860

Q1 run rates at 50-85 after capacity expansion in Dec 2015

Source Industry

wwwiciscom 1717

Test

Key price drivers Q2-Q4 2016

wwwiciscom 18

Crude oversupply expected to ease in H2 2016

wwwiciscom 1919Source Industry

2016 ethylene production losses from cracker turnarounds largely in Q2-Q3 overall losses down

34 YoY

wwwiciscom 2020Source Industry

Net losses after including +70kta at Asahi-Mitsubishi JV cracker

Output losses higher than 2015 after factoring in Shellrsquos Singapore cracker outage Asahirsquos cracker closure

wwwiciscom 2121Source Industry

Japan becomes structurally tighter

wwwiciscom 2222Source Industry

S Korearsquos exports likely to stabilise at low levels of around 650kt in 2016 after falling for two years

wwwiciscom 2323

End 2015-2016 ethylene capacity expansions in AsiaMideast

Saudi+1800kta

India+3270kta

Iran+2000kta Japan

+70ktaChina+1615kta

Source Industry

Total 9015 kta

Indonesia+260kta

wwwiciscom 2424Source Industry

Cracker expansions concentrated in IndiaMideast mostly integrated

Company Location

C2 capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr) Start-up schedule

Chandra Asri Cilegon Indonesia +260 to 860 Dec 2015Asahi Kasei Mitsubishi Chemical Ethylene Corp Mizushima Japan +70 to 570 1 Apr 2016GAIL Auraiya India 450 400 PE End Feb 2016Brahmaputra Cracker and Polymer Ltd (BCPL) Lepetkata Assam India 220 220 HDPELLDPE End Q1 2016

ONGC Petro Additions (OPaL) Dahej Gujarat India 1100 340 HDPE 720HDPELLDPE Late Q2 2016

Reliance Jamnagar India 1500 750 MEG 550 LLDPE 450 LDPE End 2016

Sadara Chemical Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia 1500 350 LDPE 1080 solution PE Q2mid 2016 at earliest

Petro Rabigh Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia +300 to 1600 150 LDPEEVA 75 EPDM Apr 2016 (cracker only)

Kavian Petrochemical Bushehr Iran 1000Supply to domestic plants via west pipeline H2 20162017

Arvand Petrochemical Gachsaran Iran 1000Feeds own vinyls plants+pipeline customers H2 20162017

Total C27400

wwwiciscom 2525

Expansions in China centred on integrated coal-based projects

Source Industry

Company Location Facility

C2 capacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstreamcapacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr

Start-upschedule

Shenhua Yulin Shenmu Shaanxi MTO 300 300 PE Dec 2015Inner Mongolia ChinaCoal Mengda New Energy amp Chemical Industry

Erdos Inner Mongolia CTO 300

300HDPELLDPE Apr 2016

Shenhua Xinjiang Urumqi Xinjiang CTO 320 320 LDPE Late Q2 2016

Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Golmud Qinghai CTO 160 300 PVC Q3 2016

Fund (Changzhou) Energy amp Chemical Changzhou Jiangsu MTO 165 Q3 2016

Jiangsu Sailboat PetrochemicalLianyungang Jiangsu MTO 370

300 EVALDPE 180 EO 20 MEG Q4 2016

Total C21615 Will supply to Changzhou Dohowrsquos new 300kta SM plant

wwwiciscom 2626Source Industry

More capacity increases at crackers in NESE Asia in 2017

Company Location

C2 capacityadditions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Completion schedule

Korea Petrochemical Industry Co (KPIC)

Onsan South Korea +330 to 800 Mid 2017

Lotte Chemical TitanPasir Gudang Malaysia 90 H1 2017

CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals (CSPC)

Huizhou Guangdong China 1000

150 EO 480 EG400 HDPE 300 LLDPE 700 SM End 20172018

Total C2 1420

wwwiciscom 27Source Industry

Chinarsquos ethylene import demand in 2016 could increase to around 1550-1600kt from 2015rsquos 1516kt

wwwiciscom 2828

Arbitrage amp Mideast cargoes help offset regional supply shortfalls around 500-565kt expected in 2016

Source Industry

Saudi 170-175kt

US 130-140kt

Europe 200-250kt

Projected spot supply excludes term cargoes

wwwiciscom 29

US ethane-based derivative expansions ndash an emerging threat

wwwiciscom 30

Company LocationC2 capacity (rsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream (lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Start-up schedule

Chevron Phillips ChemicalCedar Bayou Texas 1500

500 Bimodal HDPE 500 mLLDPE at Sweeny Mid 2017

Dow Chemical Freeport Texas 1500400 ELITE PE 350 LDPE 320 elastomers 200 EPDM H1 2017

ExxonMobil Chemical Baytown Texas 1500650x2 mLLDPE plus LLDPE at Mont Belvieu H2 2017

Formosa PlasticsPoint Comfort Texas 1590

525 PE unspec 6255 LDPE1000 MEG 20172018

Occidental ChemicalMexichem Ingleside Texas 544 Feed into existing 1050 VCM Q1 2017

SasolLake Charles Louisiana 1500

450 LDPE 450 LLDPE 300EOEG 300 ethoxylatesdetergent alcohols 2018

Total C28134 Total PE 51005

2017-2018 US ethylene amp derivatives projects country to become major PE exporter

Source ICIS Chemical Business

wwwiciscom 31

Chinarsquos PE deficit to continue

wwwiciscom 32wwwiciscom 32

Asia ethylene market to remain tight in 2016

Low-cost US PE exports likely to begin in late 2017 operations of naphtha-based integrated producers in Asia may be impacted

Conclusion

wwwiciscom 33

Asiarsquos toluene and benzene trade flows

wwwiciscom 34

Drivers of Asiarsquos toluene trade flow

wwwiciscom 35wwwiciscom 35

Asiarsquos TOL prices still tracks PX but relationship may weaken on narrower TDP spreads wider toluene-naphtha gap

0

50

100

150

200

250

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

160002

-Jan

-201

422

-Jan

-201

412

-Feb

-201

404

-Mar

-201

424

-Mar

-201

411

-Apr

-201

401

-May

-201

421

-May

-201

410

-Jun

-201

430

-Jun

-201

418

-Jul

-201

407

-Aug

-201

427

-Aug

-201

416

-Sep

-201

406

-Oct

-201

424

-Oct

-201

413

-Nov

-201

403

-Dec

-201

423

-Dec

-201

421

-Jan

-201

510

-Feb

-201

504

-Mar

-201

524

-Mar

-201

513

-Apr

-201

504

-May

-201

522

-May

-201

511

-Jun

-201

501

-Jul

-201

521

-Jul

-201

511

-Aug

-201

531

-Aug

-201

518

-Sep

-201

508

-Oct

-201

528

-Oct

-201

517

-Nov

-201

507

-Dec

-201

504

-Jan

-201

622

-Jan

-201

615

-Feb

-201

604

-Mar

-201

624

-Mar

-201

6

TDP spread (U

SDtonne)

USD

tonn

e

TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Toluene FOB K PX CFR CN

CF 094

CF 095

CF = correlation factor

CF 092

CF= 093

Healthy margins prevailed in 2014 supporting the closer relationship between PX and TOL prices

Margins turned largely negative in 2015 weakening the relationship slightly Strong blend value (BV) of TOL had larger impact on prices

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 36wwwiciscom 36

Wider toluene-naphtha spread since end-2015 increased toluene selling impetus instead of downstream usage allocation

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400Price spread (U

SDtonne)

USD

tonn

e

Toluene-Naphtha spread Naphtha CFR Japan Toluene FOB South Korea

Heavy speculation low Chinese + Indian inventory healthy PX spread led to widened spread in Q1 2016

Price increases supported by start-up of UAC higher usage of TOL for TDP units in addition to summer blending season

Breakeven level

Ave = 230Ave = 170Ave = 170

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 37wwwiciscom 37

TOL heavily placed in blending pool in 2015 capping op rates of downstream TDPs 2016 situation may be reversed

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

USD

tonn

e

Toluene blend value Toluene FOB Korea prices

95-TOL CF= 090

Strong TOL BV in H1 of 2014 results in the price support from gasoline blending strengthening relationship between the two

FOB K prices consistently higher than BV difficult to find demand from blending pool

95-TOL CF= 06895-TOL CF= 090

TOL BV surpasses TOL FOB K making it possible to be placed into blending pool for most of 2015

CF = correlation factorSource ICIS

wwwiciscom 38wwwiciscom 38

Chinese inventories have heavy influence on buying interest Q1 shortage supported sellersrsquo decision to offload more TOL

Ave = 103kt Ave = 903kt Ave = 89kt

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

USD

tonne0

00 to

nnes

east China south China CFR China price Import parity price of CNY cargoes

Strong demand from gasoline blending sector and cargo delays result in 3-year low inventories

Period of strong demand

Previously overbought slow offtake after LNY

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 39

S Korearsquos importexport position for TOL dependent on TDP spreads switch in production strategies in Q1 2016

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

50

100

150

200

25003

-Jan

-201

424

-Jan

-201

414

-Feb

-201

407

-Mar

-201

428

-Mar

-201

418

-Apr

-201

409

-May

-201

430

-May

-201

420

-Jun

-201

411

-Jul

-201

401

-Aug

-201

422

-Aug

-201

412

-Sep

-201

403

-Oct

-201

424

-Oct

-201

414

-Nov

-201

405

-Dec

-201

426

-Dec

-201

423

-Jan

-201

513

-Feb

-201

506

-Mar

-201

527

-Mar

-201

517

-Apr

-201

508

-May

-201

529

-May

-201

519

-Jun

-201

510

-Jul

-201

531

-Jul

-201

521

-Aug

-201

511

-Sep

-201

502

-Oct

-201

523

-Oct

-201

513

-Nov

-201

504

-Dec

-201

525

-Dec

-201

522

-Jan

-201

612

-Feb

-201

604

-Mar

-201

625

-Mar

-201

615

-Apr

-201

6

Qty in lsquo000 tonnes

USD

tonn

e

TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Exports from S Korea Imports to S Korea

Start up of UACrsquos TDP

Slight strategy switch as low Chinese inventories strong naphtha-TOL spread since Q1 leads to stronger TOL selling interest

Overall drop in TDP spreads from mid-2014 results in selling interest switch to net exporter

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 40

Heavier downstream unit turnarounds and production adjustments led to more S Korea-origin exports

H1 2015 H1 2016

0

20

40

60

80

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Qty

in 0

00 to

nnes

South Korea exports

China Taiwan Vietnam US Japan Singapore India Others

Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 13 00Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 00 00 18 00Hyundai Cosmo TDP Daesan 00 00 00 50 200 00S Oil No 2 TDP Onsan 00 00 00 200 00 00

00 00 00 250 231 00Producer LocationLG Chem Daesan 00 00 23 23 00 00YNCC No 1 Yeosu 00 00 00 00 50 50Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 00 00 00 08 63 00Lotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 23 00 00S Oil No 2 Onsan 00 00 124 267 00 00SKGC Incheon 67 00 00 00 00 00

67 00 147 321 113 50

Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)

Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)

Source ICIS

Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 00 87Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 27 00 00 00OCI TDI Kunsan 00 06 00 00 00 00GSCX STDP Yeosu 00 00 00 583 82 00Hanwha Total TDP Daesan 00 00 222 278 00 00SKGC TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 00 49 208LG H D A Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38

38 45 288 899 169 333Producer Location Hanwha Total Daesan 00 00 153 191 00 00GSCX Yeosu 00 00 00 174 49 00Lotte Chem Yeosu 00 00 00 47 16 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 00 78 333YNCC Yeosu 00 00 33 17 00 00

00 00 186 428 143 333

Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)

Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)

wwwiciscom 41wwwiciscom 41

NE Asia and SE Asia exports to China rise since H2 2015 on healthy netbacks strong demand

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

USD

tonne

Qty

in 0

00 to

nnes

Others

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea

Import parity of domesticcargoesFOB South Korea prices

Increase in selling to China because of healthy netbacks weak TDP spread

Narrow gap results in fewer imports in line with FOB K price support from PX

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 42wwwiciscom 42

Exports from Asia to US market sporadic highly dependent on price gap gasoline blending season and Asia demand

0

10

20

30

40

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250Q

ty in 000 tonnesU

SDto

nne

Price gap (Asia prompt vs US forward) Exports from Asia to US

Open arbitrage opportunities result in increase of Asia exports

Consistent upward trend leads to selling interest

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 43wwwiciscom 43

India TOL imports mainly from SE Asia and Iran

46

23

17

37

4

2014

Singapore Thailand Iran S Korea Europe Others

2015

50

24

9

37

7

Source customs data

Total= 288kt Total= 288kt

wwwiciscom 44wwwiciscom 44

NE Asia TOL supply could outstrip demand in H2 2016 on heavier downstream turnarounds permanent shutdowns

H2 2015 H2 2016

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S Oil Onsan old TDP Onsan 00 42 42 00 00 00

00 42 42 00 00 00FCFC Aroma 2 TDP Mailiao 67 200 00 00 00 00

67 200 00 00 00 00JX Nippon Oil TDP Mizushima A 00 00 75 75 00 00

00 00 75 75 00 0067 242 117 75 00 00

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecLotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 73 25 00KPIC Ulsan 00 00 00 83 00 00S Oil No 1 Onsan 00 146 146 00 00 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 167 333 00OCI Yeosu 00 00 00 33 00 00

00 146 146 357 358 00Mitsui Chemicals Chiba 00 00 00 83 83 00JX Nippon Oil Mizushima A 00 00 117 233 00 00Tonen General Wakayama 00 00 00 69 92 00

00 00 117 385 175 00FCFC Aroma No 2 Mailiao 83 250 00 00 00 00CPC No 6 Kaohsiung 40 00 20 80 20 00CPC No3 Kaoshiung 00 00 00 00 83 55

123 250 20 80 103 55123 396 283 822 636 55

Est TOL consumption loss from KR

Est TOL consumption loss from TW

Est TOL production loss from KR

Total est consumption loss from NE Asia

Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia

CONSUMPTION (mt)

PRODUCTION (mt)

Est TOL consumption loss from JPN

Est TOL production loss from JPN

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUlsan Aromatics Center TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 1000 500 00SKGC TDP Incheon 00 00 00 83 42 00LG Chem H D A (shut since Jan) Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38

38 38 38 1122 580 38Taiyo Oil TDP cut rate only Kikuma 42 07 00 00 00 00MSNC TDI (shut since April) Omuta 65 65 65 65 65 65

107 72 65 65 65 65145 110 103 1187 645 103

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSKGC Incheon 00 00 00 133 67 00

00 00 00 133 67 00Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 00 00 108 108 00 00JFEC Chiba 00 00 14 42 00 00

00 00 122 150 00 00CPC No 7 Kaohsiung 00 00 00 27 108 00CPC No 3 Kaohsiung 110 00 00 00 00 00

110 00 00 27 108 00110 00 122 310 175 00

Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia

PRODUCTION (mt)

CONSUMPTION (mt)

Est TOL consumption loss from KR

Est TOL consumption loss from JPNTotal est consumption loss from NE Asia

Est TOL production loss from KR

Est TOL production loss from JPN

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016

Qty

in to

nnes

Total est consumption loss from NE Asia Total est production loss from NE AsiaSource ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45

Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance

Source ICIS

bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016

bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread

bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption

bull Improvements in TOL blend values

bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading

bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer

bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers

bull Other competitively priced blendstocks

bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL

bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China

TOL supply

TOL demand

Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors

wwwiciscom 46

Drivers of benzene trade flow

wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47

-60-40-200204060

500550600650700750800850900

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea

China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016

020000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000180000200000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Tonn

es

Others

MiddleEastThailand

Malaysia

Taiwan

Japan

SouthKorea

China imports

Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand

Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance

Strong appetite for imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48

Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

-

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

Pric

e ($

tonn

e)

Tonn

es

Shore tank inventories

E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity

2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite

Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains

Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49

-80-60-40-20020406080100

500550600650700750800850900950

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15

Tonn

es

OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea

Imports from Asia increase

Imports lower due to higher China prices

S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015

Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates

US imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50

Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600Ja

n-14

Feb-

14M

ar-1

4A

pr-1

4M

ay-1

4Ju

n-14

Jul-1

4A

ug-1

4Se

p-14

Oct

-14

Nov

-14

Dec

-14

Jan-

15Fe

b-15

Mar

-15

Apr

-15

May

-15

Jun-

15Ju

l-15

Aug

-15

Sep-

15O

ct-1

5N

ov-1

5D

ec-1

5Ja

n-16

Feb-

16M

ar-1

6A

pr-1

6

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)Naphtha-Benzene

Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene

$346t $193t $230t

wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51

S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32

Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300

SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15

YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37

2015 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25

S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25

SK Global Chem Incheon 200

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16

OthersTaiwanChinaUS

S Korea exports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52

Outlook increased supply likely to head to China

Source ICIS industry

Company Location BZ Start up period

Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016

Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16

Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos

(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul

Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16

Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16

Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16

Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017

Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex

Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017

Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017

KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017

Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017

Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726

Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322

Product Company Location Capacity(kta)

BZ usage Start up period

SM

Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16

Donghao China 300 240 May-16

Phenol

PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16

Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16

Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17

PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017

Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017

CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17

CPL

Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16

China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16

Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16

MDI

Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017

Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017

Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017

Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972

Consumption within China in 2016 637 655

wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53

Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season

S Korea 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75

BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0

S Korea 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5

KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26

S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13

BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3

Japan 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36

Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12

BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0

Japan 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23

Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24

JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24

BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17

Source ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54

BZ demandBZ supply

bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China

bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ

bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene

bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units

bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher

bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure

bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed

bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand

Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55

Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom

Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom

Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom

Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom

wwwiciscom 56

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Page 10: Asia Olefins & Aromatics Markets –A Turning of the Tide? · PDF fileBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news, ... Saudi Arabia 1,500 350 LDPE,1,080 solution PEQ2/mid 2016

wwwiciscom 1111

Test

Downstream prices mostly higher after H1 Feb CNY holiday price gains led by SM

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 1212

SM makersrsquo strong margins supported high ethylene prices

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 1313Source ICIS

Weak margins of most other derivatives capped ethylene price gains towards late Mar

wwwiciscom 1414Source ICIS

Supply crimped by annual cracker turnaround season starting from late FebMar

wwwiciscom 15

Impact of industry consolidation snowballs Asahi Kasei mothballs cracker in 2016

Company Location

C2 capacity losses (lsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream capacity losses(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Cracker closure date

Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Jinshan China 150 Nov 2013

Mitsubishi Chemical Kashima Japan 392 92 LLDPE May 2014

CPC Corp Kaohsiung Taiwan 500 (No 5)SD advanced to Jul 2014 from end 2015

Sumitomo Chemical Chiba Japan 415 425 SM180 PO May 2015

Asahi Kasei Mizushima Japan 500 320 SM Mid Feb 2016

Total C2 capacity losses1957Source Industry

wwwiciscom 16

Production issues curtailed SE Asia supply

Company Location

C2 capacity (lsquo 000 tonnesyr) Operating status

Shell

PulauBukom Singapore Around 960

Shut in late Nov 2015 may restart in Julearly Aug 2016

Chandra AsriCilegonIndonesia 860

Q1 run rates at 50-85 after capacity expansion in Dec 2015

Source Industry

wwwiciscom 1717

Test

Key price drivers Q2-Q4 2016

wwwiciscom 18

Crude oversupply expected to ease in H2 2016

wwwiciscom 1919Source Industry

2016 ethylene production losses from cracker turnarounds largely in Q2-Q3 overall losses down

34 YoY

wwwiciscom 2020Source Industry

Net losses after including +70kta at Asahi-Mitsubishi JV cracker

Output losses higher than 2015 after factoring in Shellrsquos Singapore cracker outage Asahirsquos cracker closure

wwwiciscom 2121Source Industry

Japan becomes structurally tighter

wwwiciscom 2222Source Industry

S Korearsquos exports likely to stabilise at low levels of around 650kt in 2016 after falling for two years

wwwiciscom 2323

End 2015-2016 ethylene capacity expansions in AsiaMideast

Saudi+1800kta

India+3270kta

Iran+2000kta Japan

+70ktaChina+1615kta

Source Industry

Total 9015 kta

Indonesia+260kta

wwwiciscom 2424Source Industry

Cracker expansions concentrated in IndiaMideast mostly integrated

Company Location

C2 capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr) Start-up schedule

Chandra Asri Cilegon Indonesia +260 to 860 Dec 2015Asahi Kasei Mitsubishi Chemical Ethylene Corp Mizushima Japan +70 to 570 1 Apr 2016GAIL Auraiya India 450 400 PE End Feb 2016Brahmaputra Cracker and Polymer Ltd (BCPL) Lepetkata Assam India 220 220 HDPELLDPE End Q1 2016

ONGC Petro Additions (OPaL) Dahej Gujarat India 1100 340 HDPE 720HDPELLDPE Late Q2 2016

Reliance Jamnagar India 1500 750 MEG 550 LLDPE 450 LDPE End 2016

Sadara Chemical Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia 1500 350 LDPE 1080 solution PE Q2mid 2016 at earliest

Petro Rabigh Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia +300 to 1600 150 LDPEEVA 75 EPDM Apr 2016 (cracker only)

Kavian Petrochemical Bushehr Iran 1000Supply to domestic plants via west pipeline H2 20162017

Arvand Petrochemical Gachsaran Iran 1000Feeds own vinyls plants+pipeline customers H2 20162017

Total C27400

wwwiciscom 2525

Expansions in China centred on integrated coal-based projects

Source Industry

Company Location Facility

C2 capacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstreamcapacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr

Start-upschedule

Shenhua Yulin Shenmu Shaanxi MTO 300 300 PE Dec 2015Inner Mongolia ChinaCoal Mengda New Energy amp Chemical Industry

Erdos Inner Mongolia CTO 300

300HDPELLDPE Apr 2016

Shenhua Xinjiang Urumqi Xinjiang CTO 320 320 LDPE Late Q2 2016

Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Golmud Qinghai CTO 160 300 PVC Q3 2016

Fund (Changzhou) Energy amp Chemical Changzhou Jiangsu MTO 165 Q3 2016

Jiangsu Sailboat PetrochemicalLianyungang Jiangsu MTO 370

300 EVALDPE 180 EO 20 MEG Q4 2016

Total C21615 Will supply to Changzhou Dohowrsquos new 300kta SM plant

wwwiciscom 2626Source Industry

More capacity increases at crackers in NESE Asia in 2017

Company Location

C2 capacityadditions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Completion schedule

Korea Petrochemical Industry Co (KPIC)

Onsan South Korea +330 to 800 Mid 2017

Lotte Chemical TitanPasir Gudang Malaysia 90 H1 2017

CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals (CSPC)

Huizhou Guangdong China 1000

150 EO 480 EG400 HDPE 300 LLDPE 700 SM End 20172018

Total C2 1420

wwwiciscom 27Source Industry

Chinarsquos ethylene import demand in 2016 could increase to around 1550-1600kt from 2015rsquos 1516kt

wwwiciscom 2828

Arbitrage amp Mideast cargoes help offset regional supply shortfalls around 500-565kt expected in 2016

Source Industry

Saudi 170-175kt

US 130-140kt

Europe 200-250kt

Projected spot supply excludes term cargoes

wwwiciscom 29

US ethane-based derivative expansions ndash an emerging threat

wwwiciscom 30

Company LocationC2 capacity (rsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream (lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Start-up schedule

Chevron Phillips ChemicalCedar Bayou Texas 1500

500 Bimodal HDPE 500 mLLDPE at Sweeny Mid 2017

Dow Chemical Freeport Texas 1500400 ELITE PE 350 LDPE 320 elastomers 200 EPDM H1 2017

ExxonMobil Chemical Baytown Texas 1500650x2 mLLDPE plus LLDPE at Mont Belvieu H2 2017

Formosa PlasticsPoint Comfort Texas 1590

525 PE unspec 6255 LDPE1000 MEG 20172018

Occidental ChemicalMexichem Ingleside Texas 544 Feed into existing 1050 VCM Q1 2017

SasolLake Charles Louisiana 1500

450 LDPE 450 LLDPE 300EOEG 300 ethoxylatesdetergent alcohols 2018

Total C28134 Total PE 51005

2017-2018 US ethylene amp derivatives projects country to become major PE exporter

Source ICIS Chemical Business

wwwiciscom 31

Chinarsquos PE deficit to continue

wwwiciscom 32wwwiciscom 32

Asia ethylene market to remain tight in 2016

Low-cost US PE exports likely to begin in late 2017 operations of naphtha-based integrated producers in Asia may be impacted

Conclusion

wwwiciscom 33

Asiarsquos toluene and benzene trade flows

wwwiciscom 34

Drivers of Asiarsquos toluene trade flow

wwwiciscom 35wwwiciscom 35

Asiarsquos TOL prices still tracks PX but relationship may weaken on narrower TDP spreads wider toluene-naphtha gap

0

50

100

150

200

250

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

160002

-Jan

-201

422

-Jan

-201

412

-Feb

-201

404

-Mar

-201

424

-Mar

-201

411

-Apr

-201

401

-May

-201

421

-May

-201

410

-Jun

-201

430

-Jun

-201

418

-Jul

-201

407

-Aug

-201

427

-Aug

-201

416

-Sep

-201

406

-Oct

-201

424

-Oct

-201

413

-Nov

-201

403

-Dec

-201

423

-Dec

-201

421

-Jan

-201

510

-Feb

-201

504

-Mar

-201

524

-Mar

-201

513

-Apr

-201

504

-May

-201

522

-May

-201

511

-Jun

-201

501

-Jul

-201

521

-Jul

-201

511

-Aug

-201

531

-Aug

-201

518

-Sep

-201

508

-Oct

-201

528

-Oct

-201

517

-Nov

-201

507

-Dec

-201

504

-Jan

-201

622

-Jan

-201

615

-Feb

-201

604

-Mar

-201

624

-Mar

-201

6

TDP spread (U

SDtonne)

USD

tonn

e

TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Toluene FOB K PX CFR CN

CF 094

CF 095

CF = correlation factor

CF 092

CF= 093

Healthy margins prevailed in 2014 supporting the closer relationship between PX and TOL prices

Margins turned largely negative in 2015 weakening the relationship slightly Strong blend value (BV) of TOL had larger impact on prices

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 36wwwiciscom 36

Wider toluene-naphtha spread since end-2015 increased toluene selling impetus instead of downstream usage allocation

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400Price spread (U

SDtonne)

USD

tonn

e

Toluene-Naphtha spread Naphtha CFR Japan Toluene FOB South Korea

Heavy speculation low Chinese + Indian inventory healthy PX spread led to widened spread in Q1 2016

Price increases supported by start-up of UAC higher usage of TOL for TDP units in addition to summer blending season

Breakeven level

Ave = 230Ave = 170Ave = 170

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 37wwwiciscom 37

TOL heavily placed in blending pool in 2015 capping op rates of downstream TDPs 2016 situation may be reversed

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

USD

tonn

e

Toluene blend value Toluene FOB Korea prices

95-TOL CF= 090

Strong TOL BV in H1 of 2014 results in the price support from gasoline blending strengthening relationship between the two

FOB K prices consistently higher than BV difficult to find demand from blending pool

95-TOL CF= 06895-TOL CF= 090

TOL BV surpasses TOL FOB K making it possible to be placed into blending pool for most of 2015

CF = correlation factorSource ICIS

wwwiciscom 38wwwiciscom 38

Chinese inventories have heavy influence on buying interest Q1 shortage supported sellersrsquo decision to offload more TOL

Ave = 103kt Ave = 903kt Ave = 89kt

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

USD

tonne0

00 to

nnes

east China south China CFR China price Import parity price of CNY cargoes

Strong demand from gasoline blending sector and cargo delays result in 3-year low inventories

Period of strong demand

Previously overbought slow offtake after LNY

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 39

S Korearsquos importexport position for TOL dependent on TDP spreads switch in production strategies in Q1 2016

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

50

100

150

200

25003

-Jan

-201

424

-Jan

-201

414

-Feb

-201

407

-Mar

-201

428

-Mar

-201

418

-Apr

-201

409

-May

-201

430

-May

-201

420

-Jun

-201

411

-Jul

-201

401

-Aug

-201

422

-Aug

-201

412

-Sep

-201

403

-Oct

-201

424

-Oct

-201

414

-Nov

-201

405

-Dec

-201

426

-Dec

-201

423

-Jan

-201

513

-Feb

-201

506

-Mar

-201

527

-Mar

-201

517

-Apr

-201

508

-May

-201

529

-May

-201

519

-Jun

-201

510

-Jul

-201

531

-Jul

-201

521

-Aug

-201

511

-Sep

-201

502

-Oct

-201

523

-Oct

-201

513

-Nov

-201

504

-Dec

-201

525

-Dec

-201

522

-Jan

-201

612

-Feb

-201

604

-Mar

-201

625

-Mar

-201

615

-Apr

-201

6

Qty in lsquo000 tonnes

USD

tonn

e

TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Exports from S Korea Imports to S Korea

Start up of UACrsquos TDP

Slight strategy switch as low Chinese inventories strong naphtha-TOL spread since Q1 leads to stronger TOL selling interest

Overall drop in TDP spreads from mid-2014 results in selling interest switch to net exporter

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 40

Heavier downstream unit turnarounds and production adjustments led to more S Korea-origin exports

H1 2015 H1 2016

0

20

40

60

80

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Qty

in 0

00 to

nnes

South Korea exports

China Taiwan Vietnam US Japan Singapore India Others

Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 13 00Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 00 00 18 00Hyundai Cosmo TDP Daesan 00 00 00 50 200 00S Oil No 2 TDP Onsan 00 00 00 200 00 00

00 00 00 250 231 00Producer LocationLG Chem Daesan 00 00 23 23 00 00YNCC No 1 Yeosu 00 00 00 00 50 50Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 00 00 00 08 63 00Lotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 23 00 00S Oil No 2 Onsan 00 00 124 267 00 00SKGC Incheon 67 00 00 00 00 00

67 00 147 321 113 50

Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)

Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)

Source ICIS

Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 00 87Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 27 00 00 00OCI TDI Kunsan 00 06 00 00 00 00GSCX STDP Yeosu 00 00 00 583 82 00Hanwha Total TDP Daesan 00 00 222 278 00 00SKGC TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 00 49 208LG H D A Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38

38 45 288 899 169 333Producer Location Hanwha Total Daesan 00 00 153 191 00 00GSCX Yeosu 00 00 00 174 49 00Lotte Chem Yeosu 00 00 00 47 16 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 00 78 333YNCC Yeosu 00 00 33 17 00 00

00 00 186 428 143 333

Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)

Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)

wwwiciscom 41wwwiciscom 41

NE Asia and SE Asia exports to China rise since H2 2015 on healthy netbacks strong demand

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

USD

tonne

Qty

in 0

00 to

nnes

Others

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea

Import parity of domesticcargoesFOB South Korea prices

Increase in selling to China because of healthy netbacks weak TDP spread

Narrow gap results in fewer imports in line with FOB K price support from PX

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 42wwwiciscom 42

Exports from Asia to US market sporadic highly dependent on price gap gasoline blending season and Asia demand

0

10

20

30

40

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250Q

ty in 000 tonnesU

SDto

nne

Price gap (Asia prompt vs US forward) Exports from Asia to US

Open arbitrage opportunities result in increase of Asia exports

Consistent upward trend leads to selling interest

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 43wwwiciscom 43

India TOL imports mainly from SE Asia and Iran

46

23

17

37

4

2014

Singapore Thailand Iran S Korea Europe Others

2015

50

24

9

37

7

Source customs data

Total= 288kt Total= 288kt

wwwiciscom 44wwwiciscom 44

NE Asia TOL supply could outstrip demand in H2 2016 on heavier downstream turnarounds permanent shutdowns

H2 2015 H2 2016

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S Oil Onsan old TDP Onsan 00 42 42 00 00 00

00 42 42 00 00 00FCFC Aroma 2 TDP Mailiao 67 200 00 00 00 00

67 200 00 00 00 00JX Nippon Oil TDP Mizushima A 00 00 75 75 00 00

00 00 75 75 00 0067 242 117 75 00 00

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecLotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 73 25 00KPIC Ulsan 00 00 00 83 00 00S Oil No 1 Onsan 00 146 146 00 00 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 167 333 00OCI Yeosu 00 00 00 33 00 00

00 146 146 357 358 00Mitsui Chemicals Chiba 00 00 00 83 83 00JX Nippon Oil Mizushima A 00 00 117 233 00 00Tonen General Wakayama 00 00 00 69 92 00

00 00 117 385 175 00FCFC Aroma No 2 Mailiao 83 250 00 00 00 00CPC No 6 Kaohsiung 40 00 20 80 20 00CPC No3 Kaoshiung 00 00 00 00 83 55

123 250 20 80 103 55123 396 283 822 636 55

Est TOL consumption loss from KR

Est TOL consumption loss from TW

Est TOL production loss from KR

Total est consumption loss from NE Asia

Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia

CONSUMPTION (mt)

PRODUCTION (mt)

Est TOL consumption loss from JPN

Est TOL production loss from JPN

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUlsan Aromatics Center TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 1000 500 00SKGC TDP Incheon 00 00 00 83 42 00LG Chem H D A (shut since Jan) Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38

38 38 38 1122 580 38Taiyo Oil TDP cut rate only Kikuma 42 07 00 00 00 00MSNC TDI (shut since April) Omuta 65 65 65 65 65 65

107 72 65 65 65 65145 110 103 1187 645 103

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSKGC Incheon 00 00 00 133 67 00

00 00 00 133 67 00Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 00 00 108 108 00 00JFEC Chiba 00 00 14 42 00 00

00 00 122 150 00 00CPC No 7 Kaohsiung 00 00 00 27 108 00CPC No 3 Kaohsiung 110 00 00 00 00 00

110 00 00 27 108 00110 00 122 310 175 00

Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia

PRODUCTION (mt)

CONSUMPTION (mt)

Est TOL consumption loss from KR

Est TOL consumption loss from JPNTotal est consumption loss from NE Asia

Est TOL production loss from KR

Est TOL production loss from JPN

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016

Qty

in to

nnes

Total est consumption loss from NE Asia Total est production loss from NE AsiaSource ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45

Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance

Source ICIS

bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016

bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread

bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption

bull Improvements in TOL blend values

bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading

bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer

bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers

bull Other competitively priced blendstocks

bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL

bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China

TOL supply

TOL demand

Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors

wwwiciscom 46

Drivers of benzene trade flow

wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47

-60-40-200204060

500550600650700750800850900

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea

China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016

020000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000180000200000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Tonn

es

Others

MiddleEastThailand

Malaysia

Taiwan

Japan

SouthKorea

China imports

Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand

Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance

Strong appetite for imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48

Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

-

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

Pric

e ($

tonn

e)

Tonn

es

Shore tank inventories

E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity

2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite

Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains

Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49

-80-60-40-20020406080100

500550600650700750800850900950

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15

Tonn

es

OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea

Imports from Asia increase

Imports lower due to higher China prices

S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015

Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates

US imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50

Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600Ja

n-14

Feb-

14M

ar-1

4A

pr-1

4M

ay-1

4Ju

n-14

Jul-1

4A

ug-1

4Se

p-14

Oct

-14

Nov

-14

Dec

-14

Jan-

15Fe

b-15

Mar

-15

Apr

-15

May

-15

Jun-

15Ju

l-15

Aug

-15

Sep-

15O

ct-1

5N

ov-1

5D

ec-1

5Ja

n-16

Feb-

16M

ar-1

6A

pr-1

6

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)Naphtha-Benzene

Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene

$346t $193t $230t

wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51

S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32

Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300

SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15

YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37

2015 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25

S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25

SK Global Chem Incheon 200

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16

OthersTaiwanChinaUS

S Korea exports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52

Outlook increased supply likely to head to China

Source ICIS industry

Company Location BZ Start up period

Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016

Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16

Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos

(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul

Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16

Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16

Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16

Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017

Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex

Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017

Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017

KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017

Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017

Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726

Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322

Product Company Location Capacity(kta)

BZ usage Start up period

SM

Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16

Donghao China 300 240 May-16

Phenol

PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16

Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16

Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17

PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017

Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017

CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17

CPL

Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16

China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16

Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16

MDI

Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017

Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017

Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017

Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972

Consumption within China in 2016 637 655

wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53

Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season

S Korea 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75

BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0

S Korea 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5

KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26

S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13

BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3

Japan 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36

Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12

BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0

Japan 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23

Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24

JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24

BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17

Source ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54

BZ demandBZ supply

bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China

bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ

bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene

bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units

bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher

bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure

bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed

bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand

Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55

Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom

Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom

Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom

Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom

wwwiciscom 56

Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets

Pricing information

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wwwiciscom 57

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Page 11: Asia Olefins & Aromatics Markets –A Turning of the Tide? · PDF fileBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news, ... Saudi Arabia 1,500 350 LDPE,1,080 solution PEQ2/mid 2016

wwwiciscom 1212

SM makersrsquo strong margins supported high ethylene prices

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 1313Source ICIS

Weak margins of most other derivatives capped ethylene price gains towards late Mar

wwwiciscom 1414Source ICIS

Supply crimped by annual cracker turnaround season starting from late FebMar

wwwiciscom 15

Impact of industry consolidation snowballs Asahi Kasei mothballs cracker in 2016

Company Location

C2 capacity losses (lsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream capacity losses(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Cracker closure date

Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Jinshan China 150 Nov 2013

Mitsubishi Chemical Kashima Japan 392 92 LLDPE May 2014

CPC Corp Kaohsiung Taiwan 500 (No 5)SD advanced to Jul 2014 from end 2015

Sumitomo Chemical Chiba Japan 415 425 SM180 PO May 2015

Asahi Kasei Mizushima Japan 500 320 SM Mid Feb 2016

Total C2 capacity losses1957Source Industry

wwwiciscom 16

Production issues curtailed SE Asia supply

Company Location

C2 capacity (lsquo 000 tonnesyr) Operating status

Shell

PulauBukom Singapore Around 960

Shut in late Nov 2015 may restart in Julearly Aug 2016

Chandra AsriCilegonIndonesia 860

Q1 run rates at 50-85 after capacity expansion in Dec 2015

Source Industry

wwwiciscom 1717

Test

Key price drivers Q2-Q4 2016

wwwiciscom 18

Crude oversupply expected to ease in H2 2016

wwwiciscom 1919Source Industry

2016 ethylene production losses from cracker turnarounds largely in Q2-Q3 overall losses down

34 YoY

wwwiciscom 2020Source Industry

Net losses after including +70kta at Asahi-Mitsubishi JV cracker

Output losses higher than 2015 after factoring in Shellrsquos Singapore cracker outage Asahirsquos cracker closure

wwwiciscom 2121Source Industry

Japan becomes structurally tighter

wwwiciscom 2222Source Industry

S Korearsquos exports likely to stabilise at low levels of around 650kt in 2016 after falling for two years

wwwiciscom 2323

End 2015-2016 ethylene capacity expansions in AsiaMideast

Saudi+1800kta

India+3270kta

Iran+2000kta Japan

+70ktaChina+1615kta

Source Industry

Total 9015 kta

Indonesia+260kta

wwwiciscom 2424Source Industry

Cracker expansions concentrated in IndiaMideast mostly integrated

Company Location

C2 capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr) Start-up schedule

Chandra Asri Cilegon Indonesia +260 to 860 Dec 2015Asahi Kasei Mitsubishi Chemical Ethylene Corp Mizushima Japan +70 to 570 1 Apr 2016GAIL Auraiya India 450 400 PE End Feb 2016Brahmaputra Cracker and Polymer Ltd (BCPL) Lepetkata Assam India 220 220 HDPELLDPE End Q1 2016

ONGC Petro Additions (OPaL) Dahej Gujarat India 1100 340 HDPE 720HDPELLDPE Late Q2 2016

Reliance Jamnagar India 1500 750 MEG 550 LLDPE 450 LDPE End 2016

Sadara Chemical Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia 1500 350 LDPE 1080 solution PE Q2mid 2016 at earliest

Petro Rabigh Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia +300 to 1600 150 LDPEEVA 75 EPDM Apr 2016 (cracker only)

Kavian Petrochemical Bushehr Iran 1000Supply to domestic plants via west pipeline H2 20162017

Arvand Petrochemical Gachsaran Iran 1000Feeds own vinyls plants+pipeline customers H2 20162017

Total C27400

wwwiciscom 2525

Expansions in China centred on integrated coal-based projects

Source Industry

Company Location Facility

C2 capacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstreamcapacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr

Start-upschedule

Shenhua Yulin Shenmu Shaanxi MTO 300 300 PE Dec 2015Inner Mongolia ChinaCoal Mengda New Energy amp Chemical Industry

Erdos Inner Mongolia CTO 300

300HDPELLDPE Apr 2016

Shenhua Xinjiang Urumqi Xinjiang CTO 320 320 LDPE Late Q2 2016

Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Golmud Qinghai CTO 160 300 PVC Q3 2016

Fund (Changzhou) Energy amp Chemical Changzhou Jiangsu MTO 165 Q3 2016

Jiangsu Sailboat PetrochemicalLianyungang Jiangsu MTO 370

300 EVALDPE 180 EO 20 MEG Q4 2016

Total C21615 Will supply to Changzhou Dohowrsquos new 300kta SM plant

wwwiciscom 2626Source Industry

More capacity increases at crackers in NESE Asia in 2017

Company Location

C2 capacityadditions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Completion schedule

Korea Petrochemical Industry Co (KPIC)

Onsan South Korea +330 to 800 Mid 2017

Lotte Chemical TitanPasir Gudang Malaysia 90 H1 2017

CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals (CSPC)

Huizhou Guangdong China 1000

150 EO 480 EG400 HDPE 300 LLDPE 700 SM End 20172018

Total C2 1420

wwwiciscom 27Source Industry

Chinarsquos ethylene import demand in 2016 could increase to around 1550-1600kt from 2015rsquos 1516kt

wwwiciscom 2828

Arbitrage amp Mideast cargoes help offset regional supply shortfalls around 500-565kt expected in 2016

Source Industry

Saudi 170-175kt

US 130-140kt

Europe 200-250kt

Projected spot supply excludes term cargoes

wwwiciscom 29

US ethane-based derivative expansions ndash an emerging threat

wwwiciscom 30

Company LocationC2 capacity (rsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream (lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Start-up schedule

Chevron Phillips ChemicalCedar Bayou Texas 1500

500 Bimodal HDPE 500 mLLDPE at Sweeny Mid 2017

Dow Chemical Freeport Texas 1500400 ELITE PE 350 LDPE 320 elastomers 200 EPDM H1 2017

ExxonMobil Chemical Baytown Texas 1500650x2 mLLDPE plus LLDPE at Mont Belvieu H2 2017

Formosa PlasticsPoint Comfort Texas 1590

525 PE unspec 6255 LDPE1000 MEG 20172018

Occidental ChemicalMexichem Ingleside Texas 544 Feed into existing 1050 VCM Q1 2017

SasolLake Charles Louisiana 1500

450 LDPE 450 LLDPE 300EOEG 300 ethoxylatesdetergent alcohols 2018

Total C28134 Total PE 51005

2017-2018 US ethylene amp derivatives projects country to become major PE exporter

Source ICIS Chemical Business

wwwiciscom 31

Chinarsquos PE deficit to continue

wwwiciscom 32wwwiciscom 32

Asia ethylene market to remain tight in 2016

Low-cost US PE exports likely to begin in late 2017 operations of naphtha-based integrated producers in Asia may be impacted

Conclusion

wwwiciscom 33

Asiarsquos toluene and benzene trade flows

wwwiciscom 34

Drivers of Asiarsquos toluene trade flow

wwwiciscom 35wwwiciscom 35

Asiarsquos TOL prices still tracks PX but relationship may weaken on narrower TDP spreads wider toluene-naphtha gap

0

50

100

150

200

250

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

160002

-Jan

-201

422

-Jan

-201

412

-Feb

-201

404

-Mar

-201

424

-Mar

-201

411

-Apr

-201

401

-May

-201

421

-May

-201

410

-Jun

-201

430

-Jun

-201

418

-Jul

-201

407

-Aug

-201

427

-Aug

-201

416

-Sep

-201

406

-Oct

-201

424

-Oct

-201

413

-Nov

-201

403

-Dec

-201

423

-Dec

-201

421

-Jan

-201

510

-Feb

-201

504

-Mar

-201

524

-Mar

-201

513

-Apr

-201

504

-May

-201

522

-May

-201

511

-Jun

-201

501

-Jul

-201

521

-Jul

-201

511

-Aug

-201

531

-Aug

-201

518

-Sep

-201

508

-Oct

-201

528

-Oct

-201

517

-Nov

-201

507

-Dec

-201

504

-Jan

-201

622

-Jan

-201

615

-Feb

-201

604

-Mar

-201

624

-Mar

-201

6

TDP spread (U

SDtonne)

USD

tonn

e

TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Toluene FOB K PX CFR CN

CF 094

CF 095

CF = correlation factor

CF 092

CF= 093

Healthy margins prevailed in 2014 supporting the closer relationship between PX and TOL prices

Margins turned largely negative in 2015 weakening the relationship slightly Strong blend value (BV) of TOL had larger impact on prices

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 36wwwiciscom 36

Wider toluene-naphtha spread since end-2015 increased toluene selling impetus instead of downstream usage allocation

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400Price spread (U

SDtonne)

USD

tonn

e

Toluene-Naphtha spread Naphtha CFR Japan Toluene FOB South Korea

Heavy speculation low Chinese + Indian inventory healthy PX spread led to widened spread in Q1 2016

Price increases supported by start-up of UAC higher usage of TOL for TDP units in addition to summer blending season

Breakeven level

Ave = 230Ave = 170Ave = 170

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 37wwwiciscom 37

TOL heavily placed in blending pool in 2015 capping op rates of downstream TDPs 2016 situation may be reversed

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

USD

tonn

e

Toluene blend value Toluene FOB Korea prices

95-TOL CF= 090

Strong TOL BV in H1 of 2014 results in the price support from gasoline blending strengthening relationship between the two

FOB K prices consistently higher than BV difficult to find demand from blending pool

95-TOL CF= 06895-TOL CF= 090

TOL BV surpasses TOL FOB K making it possible to be placed into blending pool for most of 2015

CF = correlation factorSource ICIS

wwwiciscom 38wwwiciscom 38

Chinese inventories have heavy influence on buying interest Q1 shortage supported sellersrsquo decision to offload more TOL

Ave = 103kt Ave = 903kt Ave = 89kt

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

USD

tonne0

00 to

nnes

east China south China CFR China price Import parity price of CNY cargoes

Strong demand from gasoline blending sector and cargo delays result in 3-year low inventories

Period of strong demand

Previously overbought slow offtake after LNY

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 39

S Korearsquos importexport position for TOL dependent on TDP spreads switch in production strategies in Q1 2016

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

50

100

150

200

25003

-Jan

-201

424

-Jan

-201

414

-Feb

-201

407

-Mar

-201

428

-Mar

-201

418

-Apr

-201

409

-May

-201

430

-May

-201

420

-Jun

-201

411

-Jul

-201

401

-Aug

-201

422

-Aug

-201

412

-Sep

-201

403

-Oct

-201

424

-Oct

-201

414

-Nov

-201

405

-Dec

-201

426

-Dec

-201

423

-Jan

-201

513

-Feb

-201

506

-Mar

-201

527

-Mar

-201

517

-Apr

-201

508

-May

-201

529

-May

-201

519

-Jun

-201

510

-Jul

-201

531

-Jul

-201

521

-Aug

-201

511

-Sep

-201

502

-Oct

-201

523

-Oct

-201

513

-Nov

-201

504

-Dec

-201

525

-Dec

-201

522

-Jan

-201

612

-Feb

-201

604

-Mar

-201

625

-Mar

-201

615

-Apr

-201

6

Qty in lsquo000 tonnes

USD

tonn

e

TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Exports from S Korea Imports to S Korea

Start up of UACrsquos TDP

Slight strategy switch as low Chinese inventories strong naphtha-TOL spread since Q1 leads to stronger TOL selling interest

Overall drop in TDP spreads from mid-2014 results in selling interest switch to net exporter

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 40

Heavier downstream unit turnarounds and production adjustments led to more S Korea-origin exports

H1 2015 H1 2016

0

20

40

60

80

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Qty

in 0

00 to

nnes

South Korea exports

China Taiwan Vietnam US Japan Singapore India Others

Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 13 00Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 00 00 18 00Hyundai Cosmo TDP Daesan 00 00 00 50 200 00S Oil No 2 TDP Onsan 00 00 00 200 00 00

00 00 00 250 231 00Producer LocationLG Chem Daesan 00 00 23 23 00 00YNCC No 1 Yeosu 00 00 00 00 50 50Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 00 00 00 08 63 00Lotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 23 00 00S Oil No 2 Onsan 00 00 124 267 00 00SKGC Incheon 67 00 00 00 00 00

67 00 147 321 113 50

Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)

Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)

Source ICIS

Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 00 87Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 27 00 00 00OCI TDI Kunsan 00 06 00 00 00 00GSCX STDP Yeosu 00 00 00 583 82 00Hanwha Total TDP Daesan 00 00 222 278 00 00SKGC TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 00 49 208LG H D A Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38

38 45 288 899 169 333Producer Location Hanwha Total Daesan 00 00 153 191 00 00GSCX Yeosu 00 00 00 174 49 00Lotte Chem Yeosu 00 00 00 47 16 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 00 78 333YNCC Yeosu 00 00 33 17 00 00

00 00 186 428 143 333

Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)

Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)

wwwiciscom 41wwwiciscom 41

NE Asia and SE Asia exports to China rise since H2 2015 on healthy netbacks strong demand

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

USD

tonne

Qty

in 0

00 to

nnes

Others

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea

Import parity of domesticcargoesFOB South Korea prices

Increase in selling to China because of healthy netbacks weak TDP spread

Narrow gap results in fewer imports in line with FOB K price support from PX

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 42wwwiciscom 42

Exports from Asia to US market sporadic highly dependent on price gap gasoline blending season and Asia demand

0

10

20

30

40

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250Q

ty in 000 tonnesU

SDto

nne

Price gap (Asia prompt vs US forward) Exports from Asia to US

Open arbitrage opportunities result in increase of Asia exports

Consistent upward trend leads to selling interest

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 43wwwiciscom 43

India TOL imports mainly from SE Asia and Iran

46

23

17

37

4

2014

Singapore Thailand Iran S Korea Europe Others

2015

50

24

9

37

7

Source customs data

Total= 288kt Total= 288kt

wwwiciscom 44wwwiciscom 44

NE Asia TOL supply could outstrip demand in H2 2016 on heavier downstream turnarounds permanent shutdowns

H2 2015 H2 2016

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S Oil Onsan old TDP Onsan 00 42 42 00 00 00

00 42 42 00 00 00FCFC Aroma 2 TDP Mailiao 67 200 00 00 00 00

67 200 00 00 00 00JX Nippon Oil TDP Mizushima A 00 00 75 75 00 00

00 00 75 75 00 0067 242 117 75 00 00

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecLotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 73 25 00KPIC Ulsan 00 00 00 83 00 00S Oil No 1 Onsan 00 146 146 00 00 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 167 333 00OCI Yeosu 00 00 00 33 00 00

00 146 146 357 358 00Mitsui Chemicals Chiba 00 00 00 83 83 00JX Nippon Oil Mizushima A 00 00 117 233 00 00Tonen General Wakayama 00 00 00 69 92 00

00 00 117 385 175 00FCFC Aroma No 2 Mailiao 83 250 00 00 00 00CPC No 6 Kaohsiung 40 00 20 80 20 00CPC No3 Kaoshiung 00 00 00 00 83 55

123 250 20 80 103 55123 396 283 822 636 55

Est TOL consumption loss from KR

Est TOL consumption loss from TW

Est TOL production loss from KR

Total est consumption loss from NE Asia

Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia

CONSUMPTION (mt)

PRODUCTION (mt)

Est TOL consumption loss from JPN

Est TOL production loss from JPN

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUlsan Aromatics Center TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 1000 500 00SKGC TDP Incheon 00 00 00 83 42 00LG Chem H D A (shut since Jan) Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38

38 38 38 1122 580 38Taiyo Oil TDP cut rate only Kikuma 42 07 00 00 00 00MSNC TDI (shut since April) Omuta 65 65 65 65 65 65

107 72 65 65 65 65145 110 103 1187 645 103

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSKGC Incheon 00 00 00 133 67 00

00 00 00 133 67 00Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 00 00 108 108 00 00JFEC Chiba 00 00 14 42 00 00

00 00 122 150 00 00CPC No 7 Kaohsiung 00 00 00 27 108 00CPC No 3 Kaohsiung 110 00 00 00 00 00

110 00 00 27 108 00110 00 122 310 175 00

Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia

PRODUCTION (mt)

CONSUMPTION (mt)

Est TOL consumption loss from KR

Est TOL consumption loss from JPNTotal est consumption loss from NE Asia

Est TOL production loss from KR

Est TOL production loss from JPN

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016

Qty

in to

nnes

Total est consumption loss from NE Asia Total est production loss from NE AsiaSource ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45

Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance

Source ICIS

bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016

bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread

bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption

bull Improvements in TOL blend values

bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading

bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer

bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers

bull Other competitively priced blendstocks

bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL

bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China

TOL supply

TOL demand

Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors

wwwiciscom 46

Drivers of benzene trade flow

wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47

-60-40-200204060

500550600650700750800850900

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea

China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016

020000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000180000200000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Tonn

es

Others

MiddleEastThailand

Malaysia

Taiwan

Japan

SouthKorea

China imports

Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand

Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance

Strong appetite for imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48

Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

-

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

Pric

e ($

tonn

e)

Tonn

es

Shore tank inventories

E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity

2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite

Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains

Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49

-80-60-40-20020406080100

500550600650700750800850900950

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15

Tonn

es

OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea

Imports from Asia increase

Imports lower due to higher China prices

S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015

Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates

US imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50

Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600Ja

n-14

Feb-

14M

ar-1

4A

pr-1

4M

ay-1

4Ju

n-14

Jul-1

4A

ug-1

4Se

p-14

Oct

-14

Nov

-14

Dec

-14

Jan-

15Fe

b-15

Mar

-15

Apr

-15

May

-15

Jun-

15Ju

l-15

Aug

-15

Sep-

15O

ct-1

5N

ov-1

5D

ec-1

5Ja

n-16

Feb-

16M

ar-1

6A

pr-1

6

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)Naphtha-Benzene

Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene

$346t $193t $230t

wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51

S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32

Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300

SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15

YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37

2015 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25

S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25

SK Global Chem Incheon 200

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16

OthersTaiwanChinaUS

S Korea exports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52

Outlook increased supply likely to head to China

Source ICIS industry

Company Location BZ Start up period

Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016

Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16

Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos

(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul

Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16

Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16

Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16

Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017

Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex

Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017

Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017

KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017

Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017

Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726

Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322

Product Company Location Capacity(kta)

BZ usage Start up period

SM

Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16

Donghao China 300 240 May-16

Phenol

PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16

Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16

Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17

PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017

Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017

CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17

CPL

Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16

China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16

Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16

MDI

Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017

Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017

Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017

Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972

Consumption within China in 2016 637 655

wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53

Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season

S Korea 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75

BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0

S Korea 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5

KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26

S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13

BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3

Japan 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36

Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12

BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0

Japan 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23

Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24

JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24

BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17

Source ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54

BZ demandBZ supply

bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China

bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ

bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene

bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units

bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher

bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure

bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed

bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand

Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55

Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom

Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom

Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom

Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom

wwwiciscom 56

Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets

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wwwiciscom 57

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Page 12: Asia Olefins & Aromatics Markets –A Turning of the Tide? · PDF fileBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news, ... Saudi Arabia 1,500 350 LDPE,1,080 solution PEQ2/mid 2016

wwwiciscom 1313Source ICIS

Weak margins of most other derivatives capped ethylene price gains towards late Mar

wwwiciscom 1414Source ICIS

Supply crimped by annual cracker turnaround season starting from late FebMar

wwwiciscom 15

Impact of industry consolidation snowballs Asahi Kasei mothballs cracker in 2016

Company Location

C2 capacity losses (lsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream capacity losses(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Cracker closure date

Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Jinshan China 150 Nov 2013

Mitsubishi Chemical Kashima Japan 392 92 LLDPE May 2014

CPC Corp Kaohsiung Taiwan 500 (No 5)SD advanced to Jul 2014 from end 2015

Sumitomo Chemical Chiba Japan 415 425 SM180 PO May 2015

Asahi Kasei Mizushima Japan 500 320 SM Mid Feb 2016

Total C2 capacity losses1957Source Industry

wwwiciscom 16

Production issues curtailed SE Asia supply

Company Location

C2 capacity (lsquo 000 tonnesyr) Operating status

Shell

PulauBukom Singapore Around 960

Shut in late Nov 2015 may restart in Julearly Aug 2016

Chandra AsriCilegonIndonesia 860

Q1 run rates at 50-85 after capacity expansion in Dec 2015

Source Industry

wwwiciscom 1717

Test

Key price drivers Q2-Q4 2016

wwwiciscom 18

Crude oversupply expected to ease in H2 2016

wwwiciscom 1919Source Industry

2016 ethylene production losses from cracker turnarounds largely in Q2-Q3 overall losses down

34 YoY

wwwiciscom 2020Source Industry

Net losses after including +70kta at Asahi-Mitsubishi JV cracker

Output losses higher than 2015 after factoring in Shellrsquos Singapore cracker outage Asahirsquos cracker closure

wwwiciscom 2121Source Industry

Japan becomes structurally tighter

wwwiciscom 2222Source Industry

S Korearsquos exports likely to stabilise at low levels of around 650kt in 2016 after falling for two years

wwwiciscom 2323

End 2015-2016 ethylene capacity expansions in AsiaMideast

Saudi+1800kta

India+3270kta

Iran+2000kta Japan

+70ktaChina+1615kta

Source Industry

Total 9015 kta

Indonesia+260kta

wwwiciscom 2424Source Industry

Cracker expansions concentrated in IndiaMideast mostly integrated

Company Location

C2 capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr) Start-up schedule

Chandra Asri Cilegon Indonesia +260 to 860 Dec 2015Asahi Kasei Mitsubishi Chemical Ethylene Corp Mizushima Japan +70 to 570 1 Apr 2016GAIL Auraiya India 450 400 PE End Feb 2016Brahmaputra Cracker and Polymer Ltd (BCPL) Lepetkata Assam India 220 220 HDPELLDPE End Q1 2016

ONGC Petro Additions (OPaL) Dahej Gujarat India 1100 340 HDPE 720HDPELLDPE Late Q2 2016

Reliance Jamnagar India 1500 750 MEG 550 LLDPE 450 LDPE End 2016

Sadara Chemical Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia 1500 350 LDPE 1080 solution PE Q2mid 2016 at earliest

Petro Rabigh Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia +300 to 1600 150 LDPEEVA 75 EPDM Apr 2016 (cracker only)

Kavian Petrochemical Bushehr Iran 1000Supply to domestic plants via west pipeline H2 20162017

Arvand Petrochemical Gachsaran Iran 1000Feeds own vinyls plants+pipeline customers H2 20162017

Total C27400

wwwiciscom 2525

Expansions in China centred on integrated coal-based projects

Source Industry

Company Location Facility

C2 capacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstreamcapacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr

Start-upschedule

Shenhua Yulin Shenmu Shaanxi MTO 300 300 PE Dec 2015Inner Mongolia ChinaCoal Mengda New Energy amp Chemical Industry

Erdos Inner Mongolia CTO 300

300HDPELLDPE Apr 2016

Shenhua Xinjiang Urumqi Xinjiang CTO 320 320 LDPE Late Q2 2016

Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Golmud Qinghai CTO 160 300 PVC Q3 2016

Fund (Changzhou) Energy amp Chemical Changzhou Jiangsu MTO 165 Q3 2016

Jiangsu Sailboat PetrochemicalLianyungang Jiangsu MTO 370

300 EVALDPE 180 EO 20 MEG Q4 2016

Total C21615 Will supply to Changzhou Dohowrsquos new 300kta SM plant

wwwiciscom 2626Source Industry

More capacity increases at crackers in NESE Asia in 2017

Company Location

C2 capacityadditions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Completion schedule

Korea Petrochemical Industry Co (KPIC)

Onsan South Korea +330 to 800 Mid 2017

Lotte Chemical TitanPasir Gudang Malaysia 90 H1 2017

CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals (CSPC)

Huizhou Guangdong China 1000

150 EO 480 EG400 HDPE 300 LLDPE 700 SM End 20172018

Total C2 1420

wwwiciscom 27Source Industry

Chinarsquos ethylene import demand in 2016 could increase to around 1550-1600kt from 2015rsquos 1516kt

wwwiciscom 2828

Arbitrage amp Mideast cargoes help offset regional supply shortfalls around 500-565kt expected in 2016

Source Industry

Saudi 170-175kt

US 130-140kt

Europe 200-250kt

Projected spot supply excludes term cargoes

wwwiciscom 29

US ethane-based derivative expansions ndash an emerging threat

wwwiciscom 30

Company LocationC2 capacity (rsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream (lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Start-up schedule

Chevron Phillips ChemicalCedar Bayou Texas 1500

500 Bimodal HDPE 500 mLLDPE at Sweeny Mid 2017

Dow Chemical Freeport Texas 1500400 ELITE PE 350 LDPE 320 elastomers 200 EPDM H1 2017

ExxonMobil Chemical Baytown Texas 1500650x2 mLLDPE plus LLDPE at Mont Belvieu H2 2017

Formosa PlasticsPoint Comfort Texas 1590

525 PE unspec 6255 LDPE1000 MEG 20172018

Occidental ChemicalMexichem Ingleside Texas 544 Feed into existing 1050 VCM Q1 2017

SasolLake Charles Louisiana 1500

450 LDPE 450 LLDPE 300EOEG 300 ethoxylatesdetergent alcohols 2018

Total C28134 Total PE 51005

2017-2018 US ethylene amp derivatives projects country to become major PE exporter

Source ICIS Chemical Business

wwwiciscom 31

Chinarsquos PE deficit to continue

wwwiciscom 32wwwiciscom 32

Asia ethylene market to remain tight in 2016

Low-cost US PE exports likely to begin in late 2017 operations of naphtha-based integrated producers in Asia may be impacted

Conclusion

wwwiciscom 33

Asiarsquos toluene and benzene trade flows

wwwiciscom 34

Drivers of Asiarsquos toluene trade flow

wwwiciscom 35wwwiciscom 35

Asiarsquos TOL prices still tracks PX but relationship may weaken on narrower TDP spreads wider toluene-naphtha gap

0

50

100

150

200

250

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

160002

-Jan

-201

422

-Jan

-201

412

-Feb

-201

404

-Mar

-201

424

-Mar

-201

411

-Apr

-201

401

-May

-201

421

-May

-201

410

-Jun

-201

430

-Jun

-201

418

-Jul

-201

407

-Aug

-201

427

-Aug

-201

416

-Sep

-201

406

-Oct

-201

424

-Oct

-201

413

-Nov

-201

403

-Dec

-201

423

-Dec

-201

421

-Jan

-201

510

-Feb

-201

504

-Mar

-201

524

-Mar

-201

513

-Apr

-201

504

-May

-201

522

-May

-201

511

-Jun

-201

501

-Jul

-201

521

-Jul

-201

511

-Aug

-201

531

-Aug

-201

518

-Sep

-201

508

-Oct

-201

528

-Oct

-201

517

-Nov

-201

507

-Dec

-201

504

-Jan

-201

622

-Jan

-201

615

-Feb

-201

604

-Mar

-201

624

-Mar

-201

6

TDP spread (U

SDtonne)

USD

tonn

e

TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Toluene FOB K PX CFR CN

CF 094

CF 095

CF = correlation factor

CF 092

CF= 093

Healthy margins prevailed in 2014 supporting the closer relationship between PX and TOL prices

Margins turned largely negative in 2015 weakening the relationship slightly Strong blend value (BV) of TOL had larger impact on prices

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 36wwwiciscom 36

Wider toluene-naphtha spread since end-2015 increased toluene selling impetus instead of downstream usage allocation

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400Price spread (U

SDtonne)

USD

tonn

e

Toluene-Naphtha spread Naphtha CFR Japan Toluene FOB South Korea

Heavy speculation low Chinese + Indian inventory healthy PX spread led to widened spread in Q1 2016

Price increases supported by start-up of UAC higher usage of TOL for TDP units in addition to summer blending season

Breakeven level

Ave = 230Ave = 170Ave = 170

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 37wwwiciscom 37

TOL heavily placed in blending pool in 2015 capping op rates of downstream TDPs 2016 situation may be reversed

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

USD

tonn

e

Toluene blend value Toluene FOB Korea prices

95-TOL CF= 090

Strong TOL BV in H1 of 2014 results in the price support from gasoline blending strengthening relationship between the two

FOB K prices consistently higher than BV difficult to find demand from blending pool

95-TOL CF= 06895-TOL CF= 090

TOL BV surpasses TOL FOB K making it possible to be placed into blending pool for most of 2015

CF = correlation factorSource ICIS

wwwiciscom 38wwwiciscom 38

Chinese inventories have heavy influence on buying interest Q1 shortage supported sellersrsquo decision to offload more TOL

Ave = 103kt Ave = 903kt Ave = 89kt

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

USD

tonne0

00 to

nnes

east China south China CFR China price Import parity price of CNY cargoes

Strong demand from gasoline blending sector and cargo delays result in 3-year low inventories

Period of strong demand

Previously overbought slow offtake after LNY

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 39

S Korearsquos importexport position for TOL dependent on TDP spreads switch in production strategies in Q1 2016

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

50

100

150

200

25003

-Jan

-201

424

-Jan

-201

414

-Feb

-201

407

-Mar

-201

428

-Mar

-201

418

-Apr

-201

409

-May

-201

430

-May

-201

420

-Jun

-201

411

-Jul

-201

401

-Aug

-201

422

-Aug

-201

412

-Sep

-201

403

-Oct

-201

424

-Oct

-201

414

-Nov

-201

405

-Dec

-201

426

-Dec

-201

423

-Jan

-201

513

-Feb

-201

506

-Mar

-201

527

-Mar

-201

517

-Apr

-201

508

-May

-201

529

-May

-201

519

-Jun

-201

510

-Jul

-201

531

-Jul

-201

521

-Aug

-201

511

-Sep

-201

502

-Oct

-201

523

-Oct

-201

513

-Nov

-201

504

-Dec

-201

525

-Dec

-201

522

-Jan

-201

612

-Feb

-201

604

-Mar

-201

625

-Mar

-201

615

-Apr

-201

6

Qty in lsquo000 tonnes

USD

tonn

e

TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Exports from S Korea Imports to S Korea

Start up of UACrsquos TDP

Slight strategy switch as low Chinese inventories strong naphtha-TOL spread since Q1 leads to stronger TOL selling interest

Overall drop in TDP spreads from mid-2014 results in selling interest switch to net exporter

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 40

Heavier downstream unit turnarounds and production adjustments led to more S Korea-origin exports

H1 2015 H1 2016

0

20

40

60

80

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Qty

in 0

00 to

nnes

South Korea exports

China Taiwan Vietnam US Japan Singapore India Others

Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 13 00Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 00 00 18 00Hyundai Cosmo TDP Daesan 00 00 00 50 200 00S Oil No 2 TDP Onsan 00 00 00 200 00 00

00 00 00 250 231 00Producer LocationLG Chem Daesan 00 00 23 23 00 00YNCC No 1 Yeosu 00 00 00 00 50 50Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 00 00 00 08 63 00Lotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 23 00 00S Oil No 2 Onsan 00 00 124 267 00 00SKGC Incheon 67 00 00 00 00 00

67 00 147 321 113 50

Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)

Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)

Source ICIS

Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 00 87Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 27 00 00 00OCI TDI Kunsan 00 06 00 00 00 00GSCX STDP Yeosu 00 00 00 583 82 00Hanwha Total TDP Daesan 00 00 222 278 00 00SKGC TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 00 49 208LG H D A Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38

38 45 288 899 169 333Producer Location Hanwha Total Daesan 00 00 153 191 00 00GSCX Yeosu 00 00 00 174 49 00Lotte Chem Yeosu 00 00 00 47 16 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 00 78 333YNCC Yeosu 00 00 33 17 00 00

00 00 186 428 143 333

Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)

Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)

wwwiciscom 41wwwiciscom 41

NE Asia and SE Asia exports to China rise since H2 2015 on healthy netbacks strong demand

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

USD

tonne

Qty

in 0

00 to

nnes

Others

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea

Import parity of domesticcargoesFOB South Korea prices

Increase in selling to China because of healthy netbacks weak TDP spread

Narrow gap results in fewer imports in line with FOB K price support from PX

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 42wwwiciscom 42

Exports from Asia to US market sporadic highly dependent on price gap gasoline blending season and Asia demand

0

10

20

30

40

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250Q

ty in 000 tonnesU

SDto

nne

Price gap (Asia prompt vs US forward) Exports from Asia to US

Open arbitrage opportunities result in increase of Asia exports

Consistent upward trend leads to selling interest

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 43wwwiciscom 43

India TOL imports mainly from SE Asia and Iran

46

23

17

37

4

2014

Singapore Thailand Iran S Korea Europe Others

2015

50

24

9

37

7

Source customs data

Total= 288kt Total= 288kt

wwwiciscom 44wwwiciscom 44

NE Asia TOL supply could outstrip demand in H2 2016 on heavier downstream turnarounds permanent shutdowns

H2 2015 H2 2016

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S Oil Onsan old TDP Onsan 00 42 42 00 00 00

00 42 42 00 00 00FCFC Aroma 2 TDP Mailiao 67 200 00 00 00 00

67 200 00 00 00 00JX Nippon Oil TDP Mizushima A 00 00 75 75 00 00

00 00 75 75 00 0067 242 117 75 00 00

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecLotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 73 25 00KPIC Ulsan 00 00 00 83 00 00S Oil No 1 Onsan 00 146 146 00 00 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 167 333 00OCI Yeosu 00 00 00 33 00 00

00 146 146 357 358 00Mitsui Chemicals Chiba 00 00 00 83 83 00JX Nippon Oil Mizushima A 00 00 117 233 00 00Tonen General Wakayama 00 00 00 69 92 00

00 00 117 385 175 00FCFC Aroma No 2 Mailiao 83 250 00 00 00 00CPC No 6 Kaohsiung 40 00 20 80 20 00CPC No3 Kaoshiung 00 00 00 00 83 55

123 250 20 80 103 55123 396 283 822 636 55

Est TOL consumption loss from KR

Est TOL consumption loss from TW

Est TOL production loss from KR

Total est consumption loss from NE Asia

Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia

CONSUMPTION (mt)

PRODUCTION (mt)

Est TOL consumption loss from JPN

Est TOL production loss from JPN

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUlsan Aromatics Center TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 1000 500 00SKGC TDP Incheon 00 00 00 83 42 00LG Chem H D A (shut since Jan) Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38

38 38 38 1122 580 38Taiyo Oil TDP cut rate only Kikuma 42 07 00 00 00 00MSNC TDI (shut since April) Omuta 65 65 65 65 65 65

107 72 65 65 65 65145 110 103 1187 645 103

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSKGC Incheon 00 00 00 133 67 00

00 00 00 133 67 00Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 00 00 108 108 00 00JFEC Chiba 00 00 14 42 00 00

00 00 122 150 00 00CPC No 7 Kaohsiung 00 00 00 27 108 00CPC No 3 Kaohsiung 110 00 00 00 00 00

110 00 00 27 108 00110 00 122 310 175 00

Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia

PRODUCTION (mt)

CONSUMPTION (mt)

Est TOL consumption loss from KR

Est TOL consumption loss from JPNTotal est consumption loss from NE Asia

Est TOL production loss from KR

Est TOL production loss from JPN

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016

Qty

in to

nnes

Total est consumption loss from NE Asia Total est production loss from NE AsiaSource ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45

Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance

Source ICIS

bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016

bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread

bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption

bull Improvements in TOL blend values

bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading

bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer

bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers

bull Other competitively priced blendstocks

bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL

bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China

TOL supply

TOL demand

Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors

wwwiciscom 46

Drivers of benzene trade flow

wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47

-60-40-200204060

500550600650700750800850900

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea

China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016

020000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000180000200000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Tonn

es

Others

MiddleEastThailand

Malaysia

Taiwan

Japan

SouthKorea

China imports

Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand

Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance

Strong appetite for imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48

Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

-

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

Pric

e ($

tonn

e)

Tonn

es

Shore tank inventories

E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity

2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite

Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains

Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49

-80-60-40-20020406080100

500550600650700750800850900950

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15

Tonn

es

OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea

Imports from Asia increase

Imports lower due to higher China prices

S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015

Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates

US imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50

Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600Ja

n-14

Feb-

14M

ar-1

4A

pr-1

4M

ay-1

4Ju

n-14

Jul-1

4A

ug-1

4Se

p-14

Oct

-14

Nov

-14

Dec

-14

Jan-

15Fe

b-15

Mar

-15

Apr

-15

May

-15

Jun-

15Ju

l-15

Aug

-15

Sep-

15O

ct-1

5N

ov-1

5D

ec-1

5Ja

n-16

Feb-

16M

ar-1

6A

pr-1

6

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)Naphtha-Benzene

Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene

$346t $193t $230t

wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51

S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32

Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300

SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15

YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37

2015 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25

S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25

SK Global Chem Incheon 200

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16

OthersTaiwanChinaUS

S Korea exports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52

Outlook increased supply likely to head to China

Source ICIS industry

Company Location BZ Start up period

Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016

Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16

Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos

(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul

Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16

Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16

Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16

Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017

Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex

Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017

Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017

KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017

Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017

Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726

Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322

Product Company Location Capacity(kta)

BZ usage Start up period

SM

Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16

Donghao China 300 240 May-16

Phenol

PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16

Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16

Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17

PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017

Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017

CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17

CPL

Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16

China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16

Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16

MDI

Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017

Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017

Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017

Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972

Consumption within China in 2016 637 655

wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53

Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season

S Korea 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75

BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0

S Korea 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5

KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26

S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13

BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3

Japan 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36

Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12

BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0

Japan 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23

Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24

JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24

BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17

Source ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54

BZ demandBZ supply

bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China

bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ

bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene

bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units

bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher

bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure

bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed

bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand

Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55

Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom

Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom

Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom

Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom

wwwiciscom 56

Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets

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wwwiciscom 57

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Page 13: Asia Olefins & Aromatics Markets –A Turning of the Tide? · PDF fileBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news, ... Saudi Arabia 1,500 350 LDPE,1,080 solution PEQ2/mid 2016

wwwiciscom 1414Source ICIS

Supply crimped by annual cracker turnaround season starting from late FebMar

wwwiciscom 15

Impact of industry consolidation snowballs Asahi Kasei mothballs cracker in 2016

Company Location

C2 capacity losses (lsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream capacity losses(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Cracker closure date

Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Jinshan China 150 Nov 2013

Mitsubishi Chemical Kashima Japan 392 92 LLDPE May 2014

CPC Corp Kaohsiung Taiwan 500 (No 5)SD advanced to Jul 2014 from end 2015

Sumitomo Chemical Chiba Japan 415 425 SM180 PO May 2015

Asahi Kasei Mizushima Japan 500 320 SM Mid Feb 2016

Total C2 capacity losses1957Source Industry

wwwiciscom 16

Production issues curtailed SE Asia supply

Company Location

C2 capacity (lsquo 000 tonnesyr) Operating status

Shell

PulauBukom Singapore Around 960

Shut in late Nov 2015 may restart in Julearly Aug 2016

Chandra AsriCilegonIndonesia 860

Q1 run rates at 50-85 after capacity expansion in Dec 2015

Source Industry

wwwiciscom 1717

Test

Key price drivers Q2-Q4 2016

wwwiciscom 18

Crude oversupply expected to ease in H2 2016

wwwiciscom 1919Source Industry

2016 ethylene production losses from cracker turnarounds largely in Q2-Q3 overall losses down

34 YoY

wwwiciscom 2020Source Industry

Net losses after including +70kta at Asahi-Mitsubishi JV cracker

Output losses higher than 2015 after factoring in Shellrsquos Singapore cracker outage Asahirsquos cracker closure

wwwiciscom 2121Source Industry

Japan becomes structurally tighter

wwwiciscom 2222Source Industry

S Korearsquos exports likely to stabilise at low levels of around 650kt in 2016 after falling for two years

wwwiciscom 2323

End 2015-2016 ethylene capacity expansions in AsiaMideast

Saudi+1800kta

India+3270kta

Iran+2000kta Japan

+70ktaChina+1615kta

Source Industry

Total 9015 kta

Indonesia+260kta

wwwiciscom 2424Source Industry

Cracker expansions concentrated in IndiaMideast mostly integrated

Company Location

C2 capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr) Start-up schedule

Chandra Asri Cilegon Indonesia +260 to 860 Dec 2015Asahi Kasei Mitsubishi Chemical Ethylene Corp Mizushima Japan +70 to 570 1 Apr 2016GAIL Auraiya India 450 400 PE End Feb 2016Brahmaputra Cracker and Polymer Ltd (BCPL) Lepetkata Assam India 220 220 HDPELLDPE End Q1 2016

ONGC Petro Additions (OPaL) Dahej Gujarat India 1100 340 HDPE 720HDPELLDPE Late Q2 2016

Reliance Jamnagar India 1500 750 MEG 550 LLDPE 450 LDPE End 2016

Sadara Chemical Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia 1500 350 LDPE 1080 solution PE Q2mid 2016 at earliest

Petro Rabigh Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia +300 to 1600 150 LDPEEVA 75 EPDM Apr 2016 (cracker only)

Kavian Petrochemical Bushehr Iran 1000Supply to domestic plants via west pipeline H2 20162017

Arvand Petrochemical Gachsaran Iran 1000Feeds own vinyls plants+pipeline customers H2 20162017

Total C27400

wwwiciscom 2525

Expansions in China centred on integrated coal-based projects

Source Industry

Company Location Facility

C2 capacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstreamcapacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr

Start-upschedule

Shenhua Yulin Shenmu Shaanxi MTO 300 300 PE Dec 2015Inner Mongolia ChinaCoal Mengda New Energy amp Chemical Industry

Erdos Inner Mongolia CTO 300

300HDPELLDPE Apr 2016

Shenhua Xinjiang Urumqi Xinjiang CTO 320 320 LDPE Late Q2 2016

Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Golmud Qinghai CTO 160 300 PVC Q3 2016

Fund (Changzhou) Energy amp Chemical Changzhou Jiangsu MTO 165 Q3 2016

Jiangsu Sailboat PetrochemicalLianyungang Jiangsu MTO 370

300 EVALDPE 180 EO 20 MEG Q4 2016

Total C21615 Will supply to Changzhou Dohowrsquos new 300kta SM plant

wwwiciscom 2626Source Industry

More capacity increases at crackers in NESE Asia in 2017

Company Location

C2 capacityadditions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Completion schedule

Korea Petrochemical Industry Co (KPIC)

Onsan South Korea +330 to 800 Mid 2017

Lotte Chemical TitanPasir Gudang Malaysia 90 H1 2017

CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals (CSPC)

Huizhou Guangdong China 1000

150 EO 480 EG400 HDPE 300 LLDPE 700 SM End 20172018

Total C2 1420

wwwiciscom 27Source Industry

Chinarsquos ethylene import demand in 2016 could increase to around 1550-1600kt from 2015rsquos 1516kt

wwwiciscom 2828

Arbitrage amp Mideast cargoes help offset regional supply shortfalls around 500-565kt expected in 2016

Source Industry

Saudi 170-175kt

US 130-140kt

Europe 200-250kt

Projected spot supply excludes term cargoes

wwwiciscom 29

US ethane-based derivative expansions ndash an emerging threat

wwwiciscom 30

Company LocationC2 capacity (rsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream (lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Start-up schedule

Chevron Phillips ChemicalCedar Bayou Texas 1500

500 Bimodal HDPE 500 mLLDPE at Sweeny Mid 2017

Dow Chemical Freeport Texas 1500400 ELITE PE 350 LDPE 320 elastomers 200 EPDM H1 2017

ExxonMobil Chemical Baytown Texas 1500650x2 mLLDPE plus LLDPE at Mont Belvieu H2 2017

Formosa PlasticsPoint Comfort Texas 1590

525 PE unspec 6255 LDPE1000 MEG 20172018

Occidental ChemicalMexichem Ingleside Texas 544 Feed into existing 1050 VCM Q1 2017

SasolLake Charles Louisiana 1500

450 LDPE 450 LLDPE 300EOEG 300 ethoxylatesdetergent alcohols 2018

Total C28134 Total PE 51005

2017-2018 US ethylene amp derivatives projects country to become major PE exporter

Source ICIS Chemical Business

wwwiciscom 31

Chinarsquos PE deficit to continue

wwwiciscom 32wwwiciscom 32

Asia ethylene market to remain tight in 2016

Low-cost US PE exports likely to begin in late 2017 operations of naphtha-based integrated producers in Asia may be impacted

Conclusion

wwwiciscom 33

Asiarsquos toluene and benzene trade flows

wwwiciscom 34

Drivers of Asiarsquos toluene trade flow

wwwiciscom 35wwwiciscom 35

Asiarsquos TOL prices still tracks PX but relationship may weaken on narrower TDP spreads wider toluene-naphtha gap

0

50

100

150

200

250

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

160002

-Jan

-201

422

-Jan

-201

412

-Feb

-201

404

-Mar

-201

424

-Mar

-201

411

-Apr

-201

401

-May

-201

421

-May

-201

410

-Jun

-201

430

-Jun

-201

418

-Jul

-201

407

-Aug

-201

427

-Aug

-201

416

-Sep

-201

406

-Oct

-201

424

-Oct

-201

413

-Nov

-201

403

-Dec

-201

423

-Dec

-201

421

-Jan

-201

510

-Feb

-201

504

-Mar

-201

524

-Mar

-201

513

-Apr

-201

504

-May

-201

522

-May

-201

511

-Jun

-201

501

-Jul

-201

521

-Jul

-201

511

-Aug

-201

531

-Aug

-201

518

-Sep

-201

508

-Oct

-201

528

-Oct

-201

517

-Nov

-201

507

-Dec

-201

504

-Jan

-201

622

-Jan

-201

615

-Feb

-201

604

-Mar

-201

624

-Mar

-201

6

TDP spread (U

SDtonne)

USD

tonn

e

TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Toluene FOB K PX CFR CN

CF 094

CF 095

CF = correlation factor

CF 092

CF= 093

Healthy margins prevailed in 2014 supporting the closer relationship between PX and TOL prices

Margins turned largely negative in 2015 weakening the relationship slightly Strong blend value (BV) of TOL had larger impact on prices

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 36wwwiciscom 36

Wider toluene-naphtha spread since end-2015 increased toluene selling impetus instead of downstream usage allocation

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400Price spread (U

SDtonne)

USD

tonn

e

Toluene-Naphtha spread Naphtha CFR Japan Toluene FOB South Korea

Heavy speculation low Chinese + Indian inventory healthy PX spread led to widened spread in Q1 2016

Price increases supported by start-up of UAC higher usage of TOL for TDP units in addition to summer blending season

Breakeven level

Ave = 230Ave = 170Ave = 170

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 37wwwiciscom 37

TOL heavily placed in blending pool in 2015 capping op rates of downstream TDPs 2016 situation may be reversed

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

USD

tonn

e

Toluene blend value Toluene FOB Korea prices

95-TOL CF= 090

Strong TOL BV in H1 of 2014 results in the price support from gasoline blending strengthening relationship between the two

FOB K prices consistently higher than BV difficult to find demand from blending pool

95-TOL CF= 06895-TOL CF= 090

TOL BV surpasses TOL FOB K making it possible to be placed into blending pool for most of 2015

CF = correlation factorSource ICIS

wwwiciscom 38wwwiciscom 38

Chinese inventories have heavy influence on buying interest Q1 shortage supported sellersrsquo decision to offload more TOL

Ave = 103kt Ave = 903kt Ave = 89kt

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

USD

tonne0

00 to

nnes

east China south China CFR China price Import parity price of CNY cargoes

Strong demand from gasoline blending sector and cargo delays result in 3-year low inventories

Period of strong demand

Previously overbought slow offtake after LNY

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 39

S Korearsquos importexport position for TOL dependent on TDP spreads switch in production strategies in Q1 2016

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

50

100

150

200

25003

-Jan

-201

424

-Jan

-201

414

-Feb

-201

407

-Mar

-201

428

-Mar

-201

418

-Apr

-201

409

-May

-201

430

-May

-201

420

-Jun

-201

411

-Jul

-201

401

-Aug

-201

422

-Aug

-201

412

-Sep

-201

403

-Oct

-201

424

-Oct

-201

414

-Nov

-201

405

-Dec

-201

426

-Dec

-201

423

-Jan

-201

513

-Feb

-201

506

-Mar

-201

527

-Mar

-201

517

-Apr

-201

508

-May

-201

529

-May

-201

519

-Jun

-201

510

-Jul

-201

531

-Jul

-201

521

-Aug

-201

511

-Sep

-201

502

-Oct

-201

523

-Oct

-201

513

-Nov

-201

504

-Dec

-201

525

-Dec

-201

522

-Jan

-201

612

-Feb

-201

604

-Mar

-201

625

-Mar

-201

615

-Apr

-201

6

Qty in lsquo000 tonnes

USD

tonn

e

TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Exports from S Korea Imports to S Korea

Start up of UACrsquos TDP

Slight strategy switch as low Chinese inventories strong naphtha-TOL spread since Q1 leads to stronger TOL selling interest

Overall drop in TDP spreads from mid-2014 results in selling interest switch to net exporter

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 40

Heavier downstream unit turnarounds and production adjustments led to more S Korea-origin exports

H1 2015 H1 2016

0

20

40

60

80

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Qty

in 0

00 to

nnes

South Korea exports

China Taiwan Vietnam US Japan Singapore India Others

Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 13 00Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 00 00 18 00Hyundai Cosmo TDP Daesan 00 00 00 50 200 00S Oil No 2 TDP Onsan 00 00 00 200 00 00

00 00 00 250 231 00Producer LocationLG Chem Daesan 00 00 23 23 00 00YNCC No 1 Yeosu 00 00 00 00 50 50Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 00 00 00 08 63 00Lotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 23 00 00S Oil No 2 Onsan 00 00 124 267 00 00SKGC Incheon 67 00 00 00 00 00

67 00 147 321 113 50

Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)

Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)

Source ICIS

Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 00 87Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 27 00 00 00OCI TDI Kunsan 00 06 00 00 00 00GSCX STDP Yeosu 00 00 00 583 82 00Hanwha Total TDP Daesan 00 00 222 278 00 00SKGC TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 00 49 208LG H D A Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38

38 45 288 899 169 333Producer Location Hanwha Total Daesan 00 00 153 191 00 00GSCX Yeosu 00 00 00 174 49 00Lotte Chem Yeosu 00 00 00 47 16 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 00 78 333YNCC Yeosu 00 00 33 17 00 00

00 00 186 428 143 333

Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)

Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)

wwwiciscom 41wwwiciscom 41

NE Asia and SE Asia exports to China rise since H2 2015 on healthy netbacks strong demand

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

USD

tonne

Qty

in 0

00 to

nnes

Others

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea

Import parity of domesticcargoesFOB South Korea prices

Increase in selling to China because of healthy netbacks weak TDP spread

Narrow gap results in fewer imports in line with FOB K price support from PX

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 42wwwiciscom 42

Exports from Asia to US market sporadic highly dependent on price gap gasoline blending season and Asia demand

0

10

20

30

40

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250Q

ty in 000 tonnesU

SDto

nne

Price gap (Asia prompt vs US forward) Exports from Asia to US

Open arbitrage opportunities result in increase of Asia exports

Consistent upward trend leads to selling interest

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 43wwwiciscom 43

India TOL imports mainly from SE Asia and Iran

46

23

17

37

4

2014

Singapore Thailand Iran S Korea Europe Others

2015

50

24

9

37

7

Source customs data

Total= 288kt Total= 288kt

wwwiciscom 44wwwiciscom 44

NE Asia TOL supply could outstrip demand in H2 2016 on heavier downstream turnarounds permanent shutdowns

H2 2015 H2 2016

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S Oil Onsan old TDP Onsan 00 42 42 00 00 00

00 42 42 00 00 00FCFC Aroma 2 TDP Mailiao 67 200 00 00 00 00

67 200 00 00 00 00JX Nippon Oil TDP Mizushima A 00 00 75 75 00 00

00 00 75 75 00 0067 242 117 75 00 00

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecLotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 73 25 00KPIC Ulsan 00 00 00 83 00 00S Oil No 1 Onsan 00 146 146 00 00 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 167 333 00OCI Yeosu 00 00 00 33 00 00

00 146 146 357 358 00Mitsui Chemicals Chiba 00 00 00 83 83 00JX Nippon Oil Mizushima A 00 00 117 233 00 00Tonen General Wakayama 00 00 00 69 92 00

00 00 117 385 175 00FCFC Aroma No 2 Mailiao 83 250 00 00 00 00CPC No 6 Kaohsiung 40 00 20 80 20 00CPC No3 Kaoshiung 00 00 00 00 83 55

123 250 20 80 103 55123 396 283 822 636 55

Est TOL consumption loss from KR

Est TOL consumption loss from TW

Est TOL production loss from KR

Total est consumption loss from NE Asia

Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia

CONSUMPTION (mt)

PRODUCTION (mt)

Est TOL consumption loss from JPN

Est TOL production loss from JPN

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUlsan Aromatics Center TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 1000 500 00SKGC TDP Incheon 00 00 00 83 42 00LG Chem H D A (shut since Jan) Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38

38 38 38 1122 580 38Taiyo Oil TDP cut rate only Kikuma 42 07 00 00 00 00MSNC TDI (shut since April) Omuta 65 65 65 65 65 65

107 72 65 65 65 65145 110 103 1187 645 103

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSKGC Incheon 00 00 00 133 67 00

00 00 00 133 67 00Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 00 00 108 108 00 00JFEC Chiba 00 00 14 42 00 00

00 00 122 150 00 00CPC No 7 Kaohsiung 00 00 00 27 108 00CPC No 3 Kaohsiung 110 00 00 00 00 00

110 00 00 27 108 00110 00 122 310 175 00

Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia

PRODUCTION (mt)

CONSUMPTION (mt)

Est TOL consumption loss from KR

Est TOL consumption loss from JPNTotal est consumption loss from NE Asia

Est TOL production loss from KR

Est TOL production loss from JPN

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016

Qty

in to

nnes

Total est consumption loss from NE Asia Total est production loss from NE AsiaSource ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45

Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance

Source ICIS

bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016

bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread

bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption

bull Improvements in TOL blend values

bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading

bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer

bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers

bull Other competitively priced blendstocks

bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL

bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China

TOL supply

TOL demand

Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors

wwwiciscom 46

Drivers of benzene trade flow

wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47

-60-40-200204060

500550600650700750800850900

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea

China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016

020000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000180000200000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Tonn

es

Others

MiddleEastThailand

Malaysia

Taiwan

Japan

SouthKorea

China imports

Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand

Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance

Strong appetite for imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48

Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

-

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

Pric

e ($

tonn

e)

Tonn

es

Shore tank inventories

E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity

2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite

Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains

Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49

-80-60-40-20020406080100

500550600650700750800850900950

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15

Tonn

es

OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea

Imports from Asia increase

Imports lower due to higher China prices

S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015

Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates

US imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50

Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600Ja

n-14

Feb-

14M

ar-1

4A

pr-1

4M

ay-1

4Ju

n-14

Jul-1

4A

ug-1

4Se

p-14

Oct

-14

Nov

-14

Dec

-14

Jan-

15Fe

b-15

Mar

-15

Apr

-15

May

-15

Jun-

15Ju

l-15

Aug

-15

Sep-

15O

ct-1

5N

ov-1

5D

ec-1

5Ja

n-16

Feb-

16M

ar-1

6A

pr-1

6

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)Naphtha-Benzene

Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene

$346t $193t $230t

wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51

S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32

Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300

SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15

YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37

2015 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25

S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25

SK Global Chem Incheon 200

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16

OthersTaiwanChinaUS

S Korea exports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52

Outlook increased supply likely to head to China

Source ICIS industry

Company Location BZ Start up period

Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016

Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16

Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos

(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul

Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16

Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16

Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16

Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017

Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex

Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017

Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017

KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017

Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017

Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726

Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322

Product Company Location Capacity(kta)

BZ usage Start up period

SM

Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16

Donghao China 300 240 May-16

Phenol

PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16

Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16

Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17

PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017

Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017

CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17

CPL

Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16

China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16

Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16

MDI

Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017

Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017

Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017

Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972

Consumption within China in 2016 637 655

wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53

Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season

S Korea 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75

BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0

S Korea 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5

KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26

S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13

BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3

Japan 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36

Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12

BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0

Japan 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23

Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24

JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24

BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17

Source ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54

BZ demandBZ supply

bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China

bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ

bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene

bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units

bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher

bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure

bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed

bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand

Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55

Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom

Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom

Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom

Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom

wwwiciscom 56

Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets

Pricing information

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wwwiciscom 57

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Page 14: Asia Olefins & Aromatics Markets –A Turning of the Tide? · PDF fileBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news, ... Saudi Arabia 1,500 350 LDPE,1,080 solution PEQ2/mid 2016

wwwiciscom 15

Impact of industry consolidation snowballs Asahi Kasei mothballs cracker in 2016

Company Location

C2 capacity losses (lsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream capacity losses(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Cracker closure date

Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Jinshan China 150 Nov 2013

Mitsubishi Chemical Kashima Japan 392 92 LLDPE May 2014

CPC Corp Kaohsiung Taiwan 500 (No 5)SD advanced to Jul 2014 from end 2015

Sumitomo Chemical Chiba Japan 415 425 SM180 PO May 2015

Asahi Kasei Mizushima Japan 500 320 SM Mid Feb 2016

Total C2 capacity losses1957Source Industry

wwwiciscom 16

Production issues curtailed SE Asia supply

Company Location

C2 capacity (lsquo 000 tonnesyr) Operating status

Shell

PulauBukom Singapore Around 960

Shut in late Nov 2015 may restart in Julearly Aug 2016

Chandra AsriCilegonIndonesia 860

Q1 run rates at 50-85 after capacity expansion in Dec 2015

Source Industry

wwwiciscom 1717

Test

Key price drivers Q2-Q4 2016

wwwiciscom 18

Crude oversupply expected to ease in H2 2016

wwwiciscom 1919Source Industry

2016 ethylene production losses from cracker turnarounds largely in Q2-Q3 overall losses down

34 YoY

wwwiciscom 2020Source Industry

Net losses after including +70kta at Asahi-Mitsubishi JV cracker

Output losses higher than 2015 after factoring in Shellrsquos Singapore cracker outage Asahirsquos cracker closure

wwwiciscom 2121Source Industry

Japan becomes structurally tighter

wwwiciscom 2222Source Industry

S Korearsquos exports likely to stabilise at low levels of around 650kt in 2016 after falling for two years

wwwiciscom 2323

End 2015-2016 ethylene capacity expansions in AsiaMideast

Saudi+1800kta

India+3270kta

Iran+2000kta Japan

+70ktaChina+1615kta

Source Industry

Total 9015 kta

Indonesia+260kta

wwwiciscom 2424Source Industry

Cracker expansions concentrated in IndiaMideast mostly integrated

Company Location

C2 capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr) Start-up schedule

Chandra Asri Cilegon Indonesia +260 to 860 Dec 2015Asahi Kasei Mitsubishi Chemical Ethylene Corp Mizushima Japan +70 to 570 1 Apr 2016GAIL Auraiya India 450 400 PE End Feb 2016Brahmaputra Cracker and Polymer Ltd (BCPL) Lepetkata Assam India 220 220 HDPELLDPE End Q1 2016

ONGC Petro Additions (OPaL) Dahej Gujarat India 1100 340 HDPE 720HDPELLDPE Late Q2 2016

Reliance Jamnagar India 1500 750 MEG 550 LLDPE 450 LDPE End 2016

Sadara Chemical Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia 1500 350 LDPE 1080 solution PE Q2mid 2016 at earliest

Petro Rabigh Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia +300 to 1600 150 LDPEEVA 75 EPDM Apr 2016 (cracker only)

Kavian Petrochemical Bushehr Iran 1000Supply to domestic plants via west pipeline H2 20162017

Arvand Petrochemical Gachsaran Iran 1000Feeds own vinyls plants+pipeline customers H2 20162017

Total C27400

wwwiciscom 2525

Expansions in China centred on integrated coal-based projects

Source Industry

Company Location Facility

C2 capacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstreamcapacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr

Start-upschedule

Shenhua Yulin Shenmu Shaanxi MTO 300 300 PE Dec 2015Inner Mongolia ChinaCoal Mengda New Energy amp Chemical Industry

Erdos Inner Mongolia CTO 300

300HDPELLDPE Apr 2016

Shenhua Xinjiang Urumqi Xinjiang CTO 320 320 LDPE Late Q2 2016

Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Golmud Qinghai CTO 160 300 PVC Q3 2016

Fund (Changzhou) Energy amp Chemical Changzhou Jiangsu MTO 165 Q3 2016

Jiangsu Sailboat PetrochemicalLianyungang Jiangsu MTO 370

300 EVALDPE 180 EO 20 MEG Q4 2016

Total C21615 Will supply to Changzhou Dohowrsquos new 300kta SM plant

wwwiciscom 2626Source Industry

More capacity increases at crackers in NESE Asia in 2017

Company Location

C2 capacityadditions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Completion schedule

Korea Petrochemical Industry Co (KPIC)

Onsan South Korea +330 to 800 Mid 2017

Lotte Chemical TitanPasir Gudang Malaysia 90 H1 2017

CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals (CSPC)

Huizhou Guangdong China 1000

150 EO 480 EG400 HDPE 300 LLDPE 700 SM End 20172018

Total C2 1420

wwwiciscom 27Source Industry

Chinarsquos ethylene import demand in 2016 could increase to around 1550-1600kt from 2015rsquos 1516kt

wwwiciscom 2828

Arbitrage amp Mideast cargoes help offset regional supply shortfalls around 500-565kt expected in 2016

Source Industry

Saudi 170-175kt

US 130-140kt

Europe 200-250kt

Projected spot supply excludes term cargoes

wwwiciscom 29

US ethane-based derivative expansions ndash an emerging threat

wwwiciscom 30

Company LocationC2 capacity (rsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream (lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Start-up schedule

Chevron Phillips ChemicalCedar Bayou Texas 1500

500 Bimodal HDPE 500 mLLDPE at Sweeny Mid 2017

Dow Chemical Freeport Texas 1500400 ELITE PE 350 LDPE 320 elastomers 200 EPDM H1 2017

ExxonMobil Chemical Baytown Texas 1500650x2 mLLDPE plus LLDPE at Mont Belvieu H2 2017

Formosa PlasticsPoint Comfort Texas 1590

525 PE unspec 6255 LDPE1000 MEG 20172018

Occidental ChemicalMexichem Ingleside Texas 544 Feed into existing 1050 VCM Q1 2017

SasolLake Charles Louisiana 1500

450 LDPE 450 LLDPE 300EOEG 300 ethoxylatesdetergent alcohols 2018

Total C28134 Total PE 51005

2017-2018 US ethylene amp derivatives projects country to become major PE exporter

Source ICIS Chemical Business

wwwiciscom 31

Chinarsquos PE deficit to continue

wwwiciscom 32wwwiciscom 32

Asia ethylene market to remain tight in 2016

Low-cost US PE exports likely to begin in late 2017 operations of naphtha-based integrated producers in Asia may be impacted

Conclusion

wwwiciscom 33

Asiarsquos toluene and benzene trade flows

wwwiciscom 34

Drivers of Asiarsquos toluene trade flow

wwwiciscom 35wwwiciscom 35

Asiarsquos TOL prices still tracks PX but relationship may weaken on narrower TDP spreads wider toluene-naphtha gap

0

50

100

150

200

250

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

160002

-Jan

-201

422

-Jan

-201

412

-Feb

-201

404

-Mar

-201

424

-Mar

-201

411

-Apr

-201

401

-May

-201

421

-May

-201

410

-Jun

-201

430

-Jun

-201

418

-Jul

-201

407

-Aug

-201

427

-Aug

-201

416

-Sep

-201

406

-Oct

-201

424

-Oct

-201

413

-Nov

-201

403

-Dec

-201

423

-Dec

-201

421

-Jan

-201

510

-Feb

-201

504

-Mar

-201

524

-Mar

-201

513

-Apr

-201

504

-May

-201

522

-May

-201

511

-Jun

-201

501

-Jul

-201

521

-Jul

-201

511

-Aug

-201

531

-Aug

-201

518

-Sep

-201

508

-Oct

-201

528

-Oct

-201

517

-Nov

-201

507

-Dec

-201

504

-Jan

-201

622

-Jan

-201

615

-Feb

-201

604

-Mar

-201

624

-Mar

-201

6

TDP spread (U

SDtonne)

USD

tonn

e

TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Toluene FOB K PX CFR CN

CF 094

CF 095

CF = correlation factor

CF 092

CF= 093

Healthy margins prevailed in 2014 supporting the closer relationship between PX and TOL prices

Margins turned largely negative in 2015 weakening the relationship slightly Strong blend value (BV) of TOL had larger impact on prices

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 36wwwiciscom 36

Wider toluene-naphtha spread since end-2015 increased toluene selling impetus instead of downstream usage allocation

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400Price spread (U

SDtonne)

USD

tonn

e

Toluene-Naphtha spread Naphtha CFR Japan Toluene FOB South Korea

Heavy speculation low Chinese + Indian inventory healthy PX spread led to widened spread in Q1 2016

Price increases supported by start-up of UAC higher usage of TOL for TDP units in addition to summer blending season

Breakeven level

Ave = 230Ave = 170Ave = 170

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 37wwwiciscom 37

TOL heavily placed in blending pool in 2015 capping op rates of downstream TDPs 2016 situation may be reversed

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

USD

tonn

e

Toluene blend value Toluene FOB Korea prices

95-TOL CF= 090

Strong TOL BV in H1 of 2014 results in the price support from gasoline blending strengthening relationship between the two

FOB K prices consistently higher than BV difficult to find demand from blending pool

95-TOL CF= 06895-TOL CF= 090

TOL BV surpasses TOL FOB K making it possible to be placed into blending pool for most of 2015

CF = correlation factorSource ICIS

wwwiciscom 38wwwiciscom 38

Chinese inventories have heavy influence on buying interest Q1 shortage supported sellersrsquo decision to offload more TOL

Ave = 103kt Ave = 903kt Ave = 89kt

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

USD

tonne0

00 to

nnes

east China south China CFR China price Import parity price of CNY cargoes

Strong demand from gasoline blending sector and cargo delays result in 3-year low inventories

Period of strong demand

Previously overbought slow offtake after LNY

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 39

S Korearsquos importexport position for TOL dependent on TDP spreads switch in production strategies in Q1 2016

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

50

100

150

200

25003

-Jan

-201

424

-Jan

-201

414

-Feb

-201

407

-Mar

-201

428

-Mar

-201

418

-Apr

-201

409

-May

-201

430

-May

-201

420

-Jun

-201

411

-Jul

-201

401

-Aug

-201

422

-Aug

-201

412

-Sep

-201

403

-Oct

-201

424

-Oct

-201

414

-Nov

-201

405

-Dec

-201

426

-Dec

-201

423

-Jan

-201

513

-Feb

-201

506

-Mar

-201

527

-Mar

-201

517

-Apr

-201

508

-May

-201

529

-May

-201

519

-Jun

-201

510

-Jul

-201

531

-Jul

-201

521

-Aug

-201

511

-Sep

-201

502

-Oct

-201

523

-Oct

-201

513

-Nov

-201

504

-Dec

-201

525

-Dec

-201

522

-Jan

-201

612

-Feb

-201

604

-Mar

-201

625

-Mar

-201

615

-Apr

-201

6

Qty in lsquo000 tonnes

USD

tonn

e

TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Exports from S Korea Imports to S Korea

Start up of UACrsquos TDP

Slight strategy switch as low Chinese inventories strong naphtha-TOL spread since Q1 leads to stronger TOL selling interest

Overall drop in TDP spreads from mid-2014 results in selling interest switch to net exporter

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 40

Heavier downstream unit turnarounds and production adjustments led to more S Korea-origin exports

H1 2015 H1 2016

0

20

40

60

80

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Qty

in 0

00 to

nnes

South Korea exports

China Taiwan Vietnam US Japan Singapore India Others

Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 13 00Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 00 00 18 00Hyundai Cosmo TDP Daesan 00 00 00 50 200 00S Oil No 2 TDP Onsan 00 00 00 200 00 00

00 00 00 250 231 00Producer LocationLG Chem Daesan 00 00 23 23 00 00YNCC No 1 Yeosu 00 00 00 00 50 50Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 00 00 00 08 63 00Lotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 23 00 00S Oil No 2 Onsan 00 00 124 267 00 00SKGC Incheon 67 00 00 00 00 00

67 00 147 321 113 50

Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)

Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)

Source ICIS

Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 00 87Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 27 00 00 00OCI TDI Kunsan 00 06 00 00 00 00GSCX STDP Yeosu 00 00 00 583 82 00Hanwha Total TDP Daesan 00 00 222 278 00 00SKGC TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 00 49 208LG H D A Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38

38 45 288 899 169 333Producer Location Hanwha Total Daesan 00 00 153 191 00 00GSCX Yeosu 00 00 00 174 49 00Lotte Chem Yeosu 00 00 00 47 16 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 00 78 333YNCC Yeosu 00 00 33 17 00 00

00 00 186 428 143 333

Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)

Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)

wwwiciscom 41wwwiciscom 41

NE Asia and SE Asia exports to China rise since H2 2015 on healthy netbacks strong demand

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

USD

tonne

Qty

in 0

00 to

nnes

Others

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea

Import parity of domesticcargoesFOB South Korea prices

Increase in selling to China because of healthy netbacks weak TDP spread

Narrow gap results in fewer imports in line with FOB K price support from PX

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 42wwwiciscom 42

Exports from Asia to US market sporadic highly dependent on price gap gasoline blending season and Asia demand

0

10

20

30

40

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250Q

ty in 000 tonnesU

SDto

nne

Price gap (Asia prompt vs US forward) Exports from Asia to US

Open arbitrage opportunities result in increase of Asia exports

Consistent upward trend leads to selling interest

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 43wwwiciscom 43

India TOL imports mainly from SE Asia and Iran

46

23

17

37

4

2014

Singapore Thailand Iran S Korea Europe Others

2015

50

24

9

37

7

Source customs data

Total= 288kt Total= 288kt

wwwiciscom 44wwwiciscom 44

NE Asia TOL supply could outstrip demand in H2 2016 on heavier downstream turnarounds permanent shutdowns

H2 2015 H2 2016

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S Oil Onsan old TDP Onsan 00 42 42 00 00 00

00 42 42 00 00 00FCFC Aroma 2 TDP Mailiao 67 200 00 00 00 00

67 200 00 00 00 00JX Nippon Oil TDP Mizushima A 00 00 75 75 00 00

00 00 75 75 00 0067 242 117 75 00 00

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecLotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 73 25 00KPIC Ulsan 00 00 00 83 00 00S Oil No 1 Onsan 00 146 146 00 00 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 167 333 00OCI Yeosu 00 00 00 33 00 00

00 146 146 357 358 00Mitsui Chemicals Chiba 00 00 00 83 83 00JX Nippon Oil Mizushima A 00 00 117 233 00 00Tonen General Wakayama 00 00 00 69 92 00

00 00 117 385 175 00FCFC Aroma No 2 Mailiao 83 250 00 00 00 00CPC No 6 Kaohsiung 40 00 20 80 20 00CPC No3 Kaoshiung 00 00 00 00 83 55

123 250 20 80 103 55123 396 283 822 636 55

Est TOL consumption loss from KR

Est TOL consumption loss from TW

Est TOL production loss from KR

Total est consumption loss from NE Asia

Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia

CONSUMPTION (mt)

PRODUCTION (mt)

Est TOL consumption loss from JPN

Est TOL production loss from JPN

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUlsan Aromatics Center TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 1000 500 00SKGC TDP Incheon 00 00 00 83 42 00LG Chem H D A (shut since Jan) Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38

38 38 38 1122 580 38Taiyo Oil TDP cut rate only Kikuma 42 07 00 00 00 00MSNC TDI (shut since April) Omuta 65 65 65 65 65 65

107 72 65 65 65 65145 110 103 1187 645 103

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSKGC Incheon 00 00 00 133 67 00

00 00 00 133 67 00Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 00 00 108 108 00 00JFEC Chiba 00 00 14 42 00 00

00 00 122 150 00 00CPC No 7 Kaohsiung 00 00 00 27 108 00CPC No 3 Kaohsiung 110 00 00 00 00 00

110 00 00 27 108 00110 00 122 310 175 00

Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia

PRODUCTION (mt)

CONSUMPTION (mt)

Est TOL consumption loss from KR

Est TOL consumption loss from JPNTotal est consumption loss from NE Asia

Est TOL production loss from KR

Est TOL production loss from JPN

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016

Qty

in to

nnes

Total est consumption loss from NE Asia Total est production loss from NE AsiaSource ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45

Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance

Source ICIS

bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016

bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread

bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption

bull Improvements in TOL blend values

bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading

bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer

bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers

bull Other competitively priced blendstocks

bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL

bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China

TOL supply

TOL demand

Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors

wwwiciscom 46

Drivers of benzene trade flow

wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47

-60-40-200204060

500550600650700750800850900

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea

China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016

020000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000180000200000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Tonn

es

Others

MiddleEastThailand

Malaysia

Taiwan

Japan

SouthKorea

China imports

Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand

Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance

Strong appetite for imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48

Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

-

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

Pric

e ($

tonn

e)

Tonn

es

Shore tank inventories

E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity

2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite

Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains

Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49

-80-60-40-20020406080100

500550600650700750800850900950

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15

Tonn

es

OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea

Imports from Asia increase

Imports lower due to higher China prices

S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015

Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates

US imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50

Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600Ja

n-14

Feb-

14M

ar-1

4A

pr-1

4M

ay-1

4Ju

n-14

Jul-1

4A

ug-1

4Se

p-14

Oct

-14

Nov

-14

Dec

-14

Jan-

15Fe

b-15

Mar

-15

Apr

-15

May

-15

Jun-

15Ju

l-15

Aug

-15

Sep-

15O

ct-1

5N

ov-1

5D

ec-1

5Ja

n-16

Feb-

16M

ar-1

6A

pr-1

6

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)Naphtha-Benzene

Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene

$346t $193t $230t

wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51

S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32

Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300

SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15

YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37

2015 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25

S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25

SK Global Chem Incheon 200

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16

OthersTaiwanChinaUS

S Korea exports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52

Outlook increased supply likely to head to China

Source ICIS industry

Company Location BZ Start up period

Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016

Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16

Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos

(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul

Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16

Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16

Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16

Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017

Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex

Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017

Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017

KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017

Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017

Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726

Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322

Product Company Location Capacity(kta)

BZ usage Start up period

SM

Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16

Donghao China 300 240 May-16

Phenol

PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16

Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16

Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17

PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017

Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017

CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17

CPL

Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16

China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16

Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16

MDI

Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017

Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017

Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017

Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972

Consumption within China in 2016 637 655

wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53

Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season

S Korea 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75

BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0

S Korea 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5

KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26

S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13

BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3

Japan 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36

Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12

BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0

Japan 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23

Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24

JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24

BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17

Source ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54

BZ demandBZ supply

bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China

bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ

bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene

bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units

bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher

bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure

bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed

bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand

Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55

Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom

Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom

Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom

Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom

wwwiciscom 56

Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets

Pricing information

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wwwiciscom 57

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Page 15: Asia Olefins & Aromatics Markets –A Turning of the Tide? · PDF fileBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news, ... Saudi Arabia 1,500 350 LDPE,1,080 solution PEQ2/mid 2016

wwwiciscom 16

Production issues curtailed SE Asia supply

Company Location

C2 capacity (lsquo 000 tonnesyr) Operating status

Shell

PulauBukom Singapore Around 960

Shut in late Nov 2015 may restart in Julearly Aug 2016

Chandra AsriCilegonIndonesia 860

Q1 run rates at 50-85 after capacity expansion in Dec 2015

Source Industry

wwwiciscom 1717

Test

Key price drivers Q2-Q4 2016

wwwiciscom 18

Crude oversupply expected to ease in H2 2016

wwwiciscom 1919Source Industry

2016 ethylene production losses from cracker turnarounds largely in Q2-Q3 overall losses down

34 YoY

wwwiciscom 2020Source Industry

Net losses after including +70kta at Asahi-Mitsubishi JV cracker

Output losses higher than 2015 after factoring in Shellrsquos Singapore cracker outage Asahirsquos cracker closure

wwwiciscom 2121Source Industry

Japan becomes structurally tighter

wwwiciscom 2222Source Industry

S Korearsquos exports likely to stabilise at low levels of around 650kt in 2016 after falling for two years

wwwiciscom 2323

End 2015-2016 ethylene capacity expansions in AsiaMideast

Saudi+1800kta

India+3270kta

Iran+2000kta Japan

+70ktaChina+1615kta

Source Industry

Total 9015 kta

Indonesia+260kta

wwwiciscom 2424Source Industry

Cracker expansions concentrated in IndiaMideast mostly integrated

Company Location

C2 capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr) Start-up schedule

Chandra Asri Cilegon Indonesia +260 to 860 Dec 2015Asahi Kasei Mitsubishi Chemical Ethylene Corp Mizushima Japan +70 to 570 1 Apr 2016GAIL Auraiya India 450 400 PE End Feb 2016Brahmaputra Cracker and Polymer Ltd (BCPL) Lepetkata Assam India 220 220 HDPELLDPE End Q1 2016

ONGC Petro Additions (OPaL) Dahej Gujarat India 1100 340 HDPE 720HDPELLDPE Late Q2 2016

Reliance Jamnagar India 1500 750 MEG 550 LLDPE 450 LDPE End 2016

Sadara Chemical Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia 1500 350 LDPE 1080 solution PE Q2mid 2016 at earliest

Petro Rabigh Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia +300 to 1600 150 LDPEEVA 75 EPDM Apr 2016 (cracker only)

Kavian Petrochemical Bushehr Iran 1000Supply to domestic plants via west pipeline H2 20162017

Arvand Petrochemical Gachsaran Iran 1000Feeds own vinyls plants+pipeline customers H2 20162017

Total C27400

wwwiciscom 2525

Expansions in China centred on integrated coal-based projects

Source Industry

Company Location Facility

C2 capacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstreamcapacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr

Start-upschedule

Shenhua Yulin Shenmu Shaanxi MTO 300 300 PE Dec 2015Inner Mongolia ChinaCoal Mengda New Energy amp Chemical Industry

Erdos Inner Mongolia CTO 300

300HDPELLDPE Apr 2016

Shenhua Xinjiang Urumqi Xinjiang CTO 320 320 LDPE Late Q2 2016

Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Golmud Qinghai CTO 160 300 PVC Q3 2016

Fund (Changzhou) Energy amp Chemical Changzhou Jiangsu MTO 165 Q3 2016

Jiangsu Sailboat PetrochemicalLianyungang Jiangsu MTO 370

300 EVALDPE 180 EO 20 MEG Q4 2016

Total C21615 Will supply to Changzhou Dohowrsquos new 300kta SM plant

wwwiciscom 2626Source Industry

More capacity increases at crackers in NESE Asia in 2017

Company Location

C2 capacityadditions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Completion schedule

Korea Petrochemical Industry Co (KPIC)

Onsan South Korea +330 to 800 Mid 2017

Lotte Chemical TitanPasir Gudang Malaysia 90 H1 2017

CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals (CSPC)

Huizhou Guangdong China 1000

150 EO 480 EG400 HDPE 300 LLDPE 700 SM End 20172018

Total C2 1420

wwwiciscom 27Source Industry

Chinarsquos ethylene import demand in 2016 could increase to around 1550-1600kt from 2015rsquos 1516kt

wwwiciscom 2828

Arbitrage amp Mideast cargoes help offset regional supply shortfalls around 500-565kt expected in 2016

Source Industry

Saudi 170-175kt

US 130-140kt

Europe 200-250kt

Projected spot supply excludes term cargoes

wwwiciscom 29

US ethane-based derivative expansions ndash an emerging threat

wwwiciscom 30

Company LocationC2 capacity (rsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream (lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Start-up schedule

Chevron Phillips ChemicalCedar Bayou Texas 1500

500 Bimodal HDPE 500 mLLDPE at Sweeny Mid 2017

Dow Chemical Freeport Texas 1500400 ELITE PE 350 LDPE 320 elastomers 200 EPDM H1 2017

ExxonMobil Chemical Baytown Texas 1500650x2 mLLDPE plus LLDPE at Mont Belvieu H2 2017

Formosa PlasticsPoint Comfort Texas 1590

525 PE unspec 6255 LDPE1000 MEG 20172018

Occidental ChemicalMexichem Ingleside Texas 544 Feed into existing 1050 VCM Q1 2017

SasolLake Charles Louisiana 1500

450 LDPE 450 LLDPE 300EOEG 300 ethoxylatesdetergent alcohols 2018

Total C28134 Total PE 51005

2017-2018 US ethylene amp derivatives projects country to become major PE exporter

Source ICIS Chemical Business

wwwiciscom 31

Chinarsquos PE deficit to continue

wwwiciscom 32wwwiciscom 32

Asia ethylene market to remain tight in 2016

Low-cost US PE exports likely to begin in late 2017 operations of naphtha-based integrated producers in Asia may be impacted

Conclusion

wwwiciscom 33

Asiarsquos toluene and benzene trade flows

wwwiciscom 34

Drivers of Asiarsquos toluene trade flow

wwwiciscom 35wwwiciscom 35

Asiarsquos TOL prices still tracks PX but relationship may weaken on narrower TDP spreads wider toluene-naphtha gap

0

50

100

150

200

250

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

160002

-Jan

-201

422

-Jan

-201

412

-Feb

-201

404

-Mar

-201

424

-Mar

-201

411

-Apr

-201

401

-May

-201

421

-May

-201

410

-Jun

-201

430

-Jun

-201

418

-Jul

-201

407

-Aug

-201

427

-Aug

-201

416

-Sep

-201

406

-Oct

-201

424

-Oct

-201

413

-Nov

-201

403

-Dec

-201

423

-Dec

-201

421

-Jan

-201

510

-Feb

-201

504

-Mar

-201

524

-Mar

-201

513

-Apr

-201

504

-May

-201

522

-May

-201

511

-Jun

-201

501

-Jul

-201

521

-Jul

-201

511

-Aug

-201

531

-Aug

-201

518

-Sep

-201

508

-Oct

-201

528

-Oct

-201

517

-Nov

-201

507

-Dec

-201

504

-Jan

-201

622

-Jan

-201

615

-Feb

-201

604

-Mar

-201

624

-Mar

-201

6

TDP spread (U

SDtonne)

USD

tonn

e

TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Toluene FOB K PX CFR CN

CF 094

CF 095

CF = correlation factor

CF 092

CF= 093

Healthy margins prevailed in 2014 supporting the closer relationship between PX and TOL prices

Margins turned largely negative in 2015 weakening the relationship slightly Strong blend value (BV) of TOL had larger impact on prices

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 36wwwiciscom 36

Wider toluene-naphtha spread since end-2015 increased toluene selling impetus instead of downstream usage allocation

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400Price spread (U

SDtonne)

USD

tonn

e

Toluene-Naphtha spread Naphtha CFR Japan Toluene FOB South Korea

Heavy speculation low Chinese + Indian inventory healthy PX spread led to widened spread in Q1 2016

Price increases supported by start-up of UAC higher usage of TOL for TDP units in addition to summer blending season

Breakeven level

Ave = 230Ave = 170Ave = 170

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 37wwwiciscom 37

TOL heavily placed in blending pool in 2015 capping op rates of downstream TDPs 2016 situation may be reversed

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

USD

tonn

e

Toluene blend value Toluene FOB Korea prices

95-TOL CF= 090

Strong TOL BV in H1 of 2014 results in the price support from gasoline blending strengthening relationship between the two

FOB K prices consistently higher than BV difficult to find demand from blending pool

95-TOL CF= 06895-TOL CF= 090

TOL BV surpasses TOL FOB K making it possible to be placed into blending pool for most of 2015

CF = correlation factorSource ICIS

wwwiciscom 38wwwiciscom 38

Chinese inventories have heavy influence on buying interest Q1 shortage supported sellersrsquo decision to offload more TOL

Ave = 103kt Ave = 903kt Ave = 89kt

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

USD

tonne0

00 to

nnes

east China south China CFR China price Import parity price of CNY cargoes

Strong demand from gasoline blending sector and cargo delays result in 3-year low inventories

Period of strong demand

Previously overbought slow offtake after LNY

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 39

S Korearsquos importexport position for TOL dependent on TDP spreads switch in production strategies in Q1 2016

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

50

100

150

200

25003

-Jan

-201

424

-Jan

-201

414

-Feb

-201

407

-Mar

-201

428

-Mar

-201

418

-Apr

-201

409

-May

-201

430

-May

-201

420

-Jun

-201

411

-Jul

-201

401

-Aug

-201

422

-Aug

-201

412

-Sep

-201

403

-Oct

-201

424

-Oct

-201

414

-Nov

-201

405

-Dec

-201

426

-Dec

-201

423

-Jan

-201

513

-Feb

-201

506

-Mar

-201

527

-Mar

-201

517

-Apr

-201

508

-May

-201

529

-May

-201

519

-Jun

-201

510

-Jul

-201

531

-Jul

-201

521

-Aug

-201

511

-Sep

-201

502

-Oct

-201

523

-Oct

-201

513

-Nov

-201

504

-Dec

-201

525

-Dec

-201

522

-Jan

-201

612

-Feb

-201

604

-Mar

-201

625

-Mar

-201

615

-Apr

-201

6

Qty in lsquo000 tonnes

USD

tonn

e

TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Exports from S Korea Imports to S Korea

Start up of UACrsquos TDP

Slight strategy switch as low Chinese inventories strong naphtha-TOL spread since Q1 leads to stronger TOL selling interest

Overall drop in TDP spreads from mid-2014 results in selling interest switch to net exporter

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 40

Heavier downstream unit turnarounds and production adjustments led to more S Korea-origin exports

H1 2015 H1 2016

0

20

40

60

80

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Qty

in 0

00 to

nnes

South Korea exports

China Taiwan Vietnam US Japan Singapore India Others

Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 13 00Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 00 00 18 00Hyundai Cosmo TDP Daesan 00 00 00 50 200 00S Oil No 2 TDP Onsan 00 00 00 200 00 00

00 00 00 250 231 00Producer LocationLG Chem Daesan 00 00 23 23 00 00YNCC No 1 Yeosu 00 00 00 00 50 50Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 00 00 00 08 63 00Lotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 23 00 00S Oil No 2 Onsan 00 00 124 267 00 00SKGC Incheon 67 00 00 00 00 00

67 00 147 321 113 50

Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)

Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)

Source ICIS

Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 00 87Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 27 00 00 00OCI TDI Kunsan 00 06 00 00 00 00GSCX STDP Yeosu 00 00 00 583 82 00Hanwha Total TDP Daesan 00 00 222 278 00 00SKGC TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 00 49 208LG H D A Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38

38 45 288 899 169 333Producer Location Hanwha Total Daesan 00 00 153 191 00 00GSCX Yeosu 00 00 00 174 49 00Lotte Chem Yeosu 00 00 00 47 16 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 00 78 333YNCC Yeosu 00 00 33 17 00 00

00 00 186 428 143 333

Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)

Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)

wwwiciscom 41wwwiciscom 41

NE Asia and SE Asia exports to China rise since H2 2015 on healthy netbacks strong demand

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

USD

tonne

Qty

in 0

00 to

nnes

Others

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea

Import parity of domesticcargoesFOB South Korea prices

Increase in selling to China because of healthy netbacks weak TDP spread

Narrow gap results in fewer imports in line with FOB K price support from PX

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 42wwwiciscom 42

Exports from Asia to US market sporadic highly dependent on price gap gasoline blending season and Asia demand

0

10

20

30

40

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250Q

ty in 000 tonnesU

SDto

nne

Price gap (Asia prompt vs US forward) Exports from Asia to US

Open arbitrage opportunities result in increase of Asia exports

Consistent upward trend leads to selling interest

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 43wwwiciscom 43

India TOL imports mainly from SE Asia and Iran

46

23

17

37

4

2014

Singapore Thailand Iran S Korea Europe Others

2015

50

24

9

37

7

Source customs data

Total= 288kt Total= 288kt

wwwiciscom 44wwwiciscom 44

NE Asia TOL supply could outstrip demand in H2 2016 on heavier downstream turnarounds permanent shutdowns

H2 2015 H2 2016

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S Oil Onsan old TDP Onsan 00 42 42 00 00 00

00 42 42 00 00 00FCFC Aroma 2 TDP Mailiao 67 200 00 00 00 00

67 200 00 00 00 00JX Nippon Oil TDP Mizushima A 00 00 75 75 00 00

00 00 75 75 00 0067 242 117 75 00 00

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecLotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 73 25 00KPIC Ulsan 00 00 00 83 00 00S Oil No 1 Onsan 00 146 146 00 00 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 167 333 00OCI Yeosu 00 00 00 33 00 00

00 146 146 357 358 00Mitsui Chemicals Chiba 00 00 00 83 83 00JX Nippon Oil Mizushima A 00 00 117 233 00 00Tonen General Wakayama 00 00 00 69 92 00

00 00 117 385 175 00FCFC Aroma No 2 Mailiao 83 250 00 00 00 00CPC No 6 Kaohsiung 40 00 20 80 20 00CPC No3 Kaoshiung 00 00 00 00 83 55

123 250 20 80 103 55123 396 283 822 636 55

Est TOL consumption loss from KR

Est TOL consumption loss from TW

Est TOL production loss from KR

Total est consumption loss from NE Asia

Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia

CONSUMPTION (mt)

PRODUCTION (mt)

Est TOL consumption loss from JPN

Est TOL production loss from JPN

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUlsan Aromatics Center TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 1000 500 00SKGC TDP Incheon 00 00 00 83 42 00LG Chem H D A (shut since Jan) Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38

38 38 38 1122 580 38Taiyo Oil TDP cut rate only Kikuma 42 07 00 00 00 00MSNC TDI (shut since April) Omuta 65 65 65 65 65 65

107 72 65 65 65 65145 110 103 1187 645 103

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSKGC Incheon 00 00 00 133 67 00

00 00 00 133 67 00Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 00 00 108 108 00 00JFEC Chiba 00 00 14 42 00 00

00 00 122 150 00 00CPC No 7 Kaohsiung 00 00 00 27 108 00CPC No 3 Kaohsiung 110 00 00 00 00 00

110 00 00 27 108 00110 00 122 310 175 00

Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia

PRODUCTION (mt)

CONSUMPTION (mt)

Est TOL consumption loss from KR

Est TOL consumption loss from JPNTotal est consumption loss from NE Asia

Est TOL production loss from KR

Est TOL production loss from JPN

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016

Qty

in to

nnes

Total est consumption loss from NE Asia Total est production loss from NE AsiaSource ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45

Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance

Source ICIS

bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016

bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread

bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption

bull Improvements in TOL blend values

bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading

bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer

bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers

bull Other competitively priced blendstocks

bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL

bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China

TOL supply

TOL demand

Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors

wwwiciscom 46

Drivers of benzene trade flow

wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47

-60-40-200204060

500550600650700750800850900

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea

China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016

020000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000180000200000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Tonn

es

Others

MiddleEastThailand

Malaysia

Taiwan

Japan

SouthKorea

China imports

Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand

Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance

Strong appetite for imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48

Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

-

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

Pric

e ($

tonn

e)

Tonn

es

Shore tank inventories

E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity

2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite

Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains

Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49

-80-60-40-20020406080100

500550600650700750800850900950

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15

Tonn

es

OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea

Imports from Asia increase

Imports lower due to higher China prices

S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015

Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates

US imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50

Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600Ja

n-14

Feb-

14M

ar-1

4A

pr-1

4M

ay-1

4Ju

n-14

Jul-1

4A

ug-1

4Se

p-14

Oct

-14

Nov

-14

Dec

-14

Jan-

15Fe

b-15

Mar

-15

Apr

-15

May

-15

Jun-

15Ju

l-15

Aug

-15

Sep-

15O

ct-1

5N

ov-1

5D

ec-1

5Ja

n-16

Feb-

16M

ar-1

6A

pr-1

6

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)Naphtha-Benzene

Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene

$346t $193t $230t

wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51

S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32

Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300

SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15

YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37

2015 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25

S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25

SK Global Chem Incheon 200

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16

OthersTaiwanChinaUS

S Korea exports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52

Outlook increased supply likely to head to China

Source ICIS industry

Company Location BZ Start up period

Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016

Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16

Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos

(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul

Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16

Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16

Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16

Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017

Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex

Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017

Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017

KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017

Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017

Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726

Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322

Product Company Location Capacity(kta)

BZ usage Start up period

SM

Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16

Donghao China 300 240 May-16

Phenol

PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16

Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16

Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17

PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017

Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017

CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17

CPL

Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16

China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16

Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16

MDI

Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017

Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017

Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017

Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972

Consumption within China in 2016 637 655

wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53

Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season

S Korea 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75

BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0

S Korea 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5

KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26

S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13

BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3

Japan 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36

Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12

BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0

Japan 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23

Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24

JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24

BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17

Source ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54

BZ demandBZ supply

bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China

bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ

bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene

bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units

bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher

bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure

bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed

bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand

Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55

Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom

Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom

Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom

Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom

wwwiciscom 56

Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets

Pricing information

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wwwiciscom 57

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Page 16: Asia Olefins & Aromatics Markets –A Turning of the Tide? · PDF fileBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news, ... Saudi Arabia 1,500 350 LDPE,1,080 solution PEQ2/mid 2016

wwwiciscom 1717

Test

Key price drivers Q2-Q4 2016

wwwiciscom 18

Crude oversupply expected to ease in H2 2016

wwwiciscom 1919Source Industry

2016 ethylene production losses from cracker turnarounds largely in Q2-Q3 overall losses down

34 YoY

wwwiciscom 2020Source Industry

Net losses after including +70kta at Asahi-Mitsubishi JV cracker

Output losses higher than 2015 after factoring in Shellrsquos Singapore cracker outage Asahirsquos cracker closure

wwwiciscom 2121Source Industry

Japan becomes structurally tighter

wwwiciscom 2222Source Industry

S Korearsquos exports likely to stabilise at low levels of around 650kt in 2016 after falling for two years

wwwiciscom 2323

End 2015-2016 ethylene capacity expansions in AsiaMideast

Saudi+1800kta

India+3270kta

Iran+2000kta Japan

+70ktaChina+1615kta

Source Industry

Total 9015 kta

Indonesia+260kta

wwwiciscom 2424Source Industry

Cracker expansions concentrated in IndiaMideast mostly integrated

Company Location

C2 capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr) Start-up schedule

Chandra Asri Cilegon Indonesia +260 to 860 Dec 2015Asahi Kasei Mitsubishi Chemical Ethylene Corp Mizushima Japan +70 to 570 1 Apr 2016GAIL Auraiya India 450 400 PE End Feb 2016Brahmaputra Cracker and Polymer Ltd (BCPL) Lepetkata Assam India 220 220 HDPELLDPE End Q1 2016

ONGC Petro Additions (OPaL) Dahej Gujarat India 1100 340 HDPE 720HDPELLDPE Late Q2 2016

Reliance Jamnagar India 1500 750 MEG 550 LLDPE 450 LDPE End 2016

Sadara Chemical Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia 1500 350 LDPE 1080 solution PE Q2mid 2016 at earliest

Petro Rabigh Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia +300 to 1600 150 LDPEEVA 75 EPDM Apr 2016 (cracker only)

Kavian Petrochemical Bushehr Iran 1000Supply to domestic plants via west pipeline H2 20162017

Arvand Petrochemical Gachsaran Iran 1000Feeds own vinyls plants+pipeline customers H2 20162017

Total C27400

wwwiciscom 2525

Expansions in China centred on integrated coal-based projects

Source Industry

Company Location Facility

C2 capacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstreamcapacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr

Start-upschedule

Shenhua Yulin Shenmu Shaanxi MTO 300 300 PE Dec 2015Inner Mongolia ChinaCoal Mengda New Energy amp Chemical Industry

Erdos Inner Mongolia CTO 300

300HDPELLDPE Apr 2016

Shenhua Xinjiang Urumqi Xinjiang CTO 320 320 LDPE Late Q2 2016

Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Golmud Qinghai CTO 160 300 PVC Q3 2016

Fund (Changzhou) Energy amp Chemical Changzhou Jiangsu MTO 165 Q3 2016

Jiangsu Sailboat PetrochemicalLianyungang Jiangsu MTO 370

300 EVALDPE 180 EO 20 MEG Q4 2016

Total C21615 Will supply to Changzhou Dohowrsquos new 300kta SM plant

wwwiciscom 2626Source Industry

More capacity increases at crackers in NESE Asia in 2017

Company Location

C2 capacityadditions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Completion schedule

Korea Petrochemical Industry Co (KPIC)

Onsan South Korea +330 to 800 Mid 2017

Lotte Chemical TitanPasir Gudang Malaysia 90 H1 2017

CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals (CSPC)

Huizhou Guangdong China 1000

150 EO 480 EG400 HDPE 300 LLDPE 700 SM End 20172018

Total C2 1420

wwwiciscom 27Source Industry

Chinarsquos ethylene import demand in 2016 could increase to around 1550-1600kt from 2015rsquos 1516kt

wwwiciscom 2828

Arbitrage amp Mideast cargoes help offset regional supply shortfalls around 500-565kt expected in 2016

Source Industry

Saudi 170-175kt

US 130-140kt

Europe 200-250kt

Projected spot supply excludes term cargoes

wwwiciscom 29

US ethane-based derivative expansions ndash an emerging threat

wwwiciscom 30

Company LocationC2 capacity (rsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream (lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Start-up schedule

Chevron Phillips ChemicalCedar Bayou Texas 1500

500 Bimodal HDPE 500 mLLDPE at Sweeny Mid 2017

Dow Chemical Freeport Texas 1500400 ELITE PE 350 LDPE 320 elastomers 200 EPDM H1 2017

ExxonMobil Chemical Baytown Texas 1500650x2 mLLDPE plus LLDPE at Mont Belvieu H2 2017

Formosa PlasticsPoint Comfort Texas 1590

525 PE unspec 6255 LDPE1000 MEG 20172018

Occidental ChemicalMexichem Ingleside Texas 544 Feed into existing 1050 VCM Q1 2017

SasolLake Charles Louisiana 1500

450 LDPE 450 LLDPE 300EOEG 300 ethoxylatesdetergent alcohols 2018

Total C28134 Total PE 51005

2017-2018 US ethylene amp derivatives projects country to become major PE exporter

Source ICIS Chemical Business

wwwiciscom 31

Chinarsquos PE deficit to continue

wwwiciscom 32wwwiciscom 32

Asia ethylene market to remain tight in 2016

Low-cost US PE exports likely to begin in late 2017 operations of naphtha-based integrated producers in Asia may be impacted

Conclusion

wwwiciscom 33

Asiarsquos toluene and benzene trade flows

wwwiciscom 34

Drivers of Asiarsquos toluene trade flow

wwwiciscom 35wwwiciscom 35

Asiarsquos TOL prices still tracks PX but relationship may weaken on narrower TDP spreads wider toluene-naphtha gap

0

50

100

150

200

250

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

160002

-Jan

-201

422

-Jan

-201

412

-Feb

-201

404

-Mar

-201

424

-Mar

-201

411

-Apr

-201

401

-May

-201

421

-May

-201

410

-Jun

-201

430

-Jun

-201

418

-Jul

-201

407

-Aug

-201

427

-Aug

-201

416

-Sep

-201

406

-Oct

-201

424

-Oct

-201

413

-Nov

-201

403

-Dec

-201

423

-Dec

-201

421

-Jan

-201

510

-Feb

-201

504

-Mar

-201

524

-Mar

-201

513

-Apr

-201

504

-May

-201

522

-May

-201

511

-Jun

-201

501

-Jul

-201

521

-Jul

-201

511

-Aug

-201

531

-Aug

-201

518

-Sep

-201

508

-Oct

-201

528

-Oct

-201

517

-Nov

-201

507

-Dec

-201

504

-Jan

-201

622

-Jan

-201

615

-Feb

-201

604

-Mar

-201

624

-Mar

-201

6

TDP spread (U

SDtonne)

USD

tonn

e

TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Toluene FOB K PX CFR CN

CF 094

CF 095

CF = correlation factor

CF 092

CF= 093

Healthy margins prevailed in 2014 supporting the closer relationship between PX and TOL prices

Margins turned largely negative in 2015 weakening the relationship slightly Strong blend value (BV) of TOL had larger impact on prices

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 36wwwiciscom 36

Wider toluene-naphtha spread since end-2015 increased toluene selling impetus instead of downstream usage allocation

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400Price spread (U

SDtonne)

USD

tonn

e

Toluene-Naphtha spread Naphtha CFR Japan Toluene FOB South Korea

Heavy speculation low Chinese + Indian inventory healthy PX spread led to widened spread in Q1 2016

Price increases supported by start-up of UAC higher usage of TOL for TDP units in addition to summer blending season

Breakeven level

Ave = 230Ave = 170Ave = 170

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 37wwwiciscom 37

TOL heavily placed in blending pool in 2015 capping op rates of downstream TDPs 2016 situation may be reversed

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

USD

tonn

e

Toluene blend value Toluene FOB Korea prices

95-TOL CF= 090

Strong TOL BV in H1 of 2014 results in the price support from gasoline blending strengthening relationship between the two

FOB K prices consistently higher than BV difficult to find demand from blending pool

95-TOL CF= 06895-TOL CF= 090

TOL BV surpasses TOL FOB K making it possible to be placed into blending pool for most of 2015

CF = correlation factorSource ICIS

wwwiciscom 38wwwiciscom 38

Chinese inventories have heavy influence on buying interest Q1 shortage supported sellersrsquo decision to offload more TOL

Ave = 103kt Ave = 903kt Ave = 89kt

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

USD

tonne0

00 to

nnes

east China south China CFR China price Import parity price of CNY cargoes

Strong demand from gasoline blending sector and cargo delays result in 3-year low inventories

Period of strong demand

Previously overbought slow offtake after LNY

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 39

S Korearsquos importexport position for TOL dependent on TDP spreads switch in production strategies in Q1 2016

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

50

100

150

200

25003

-Jan

-201

424

-Jan

-201

414

-Feb

-201

407

-Mar

-201

428

-Mar

-201

418

-Apr

-201

409

-May

-201

430

-May

-201

420

-Jun

-201

411

-Jul

-201

401

-Aug

-201

422

-Aug

-201

412

-Sep

-201

403

-Oct

-201

424

-Oct

-201

414

-Nov

-201

405

-Dec

-201

426

-Dec

-201

423

-Jan

-201

513

-Feb

-201

506

-Mar

-201

527

-Mar

-201

517

-Apr

-201

508

-May

-201

529

-May

-201

519

-Jun

-201

510

-Jul

-201

531

-Jul

-201

521

-Aug

-201

511

-Sep

-201

502

-Oct

-201

523

-Oct

-201

513

-Nov

-201

504

-Dec

-201

525

-Dec

-201

522

-Jan

-201

612

-Feb

-201

604

-Mar

-201

625

-Mar

-201

615

-Apr

-201

6

Qty in lsquo000 tonnes

USD

tonn

e

TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Exports from S Korea Imports to S Korea

Start up of UACrsquos TDP

Slight strategy switch as low Chinese inventories strong naphtha-TOL spread since Q1 leads to stronger TOL selling interest

Overall drop in TDP spreads from mid-2014 results in selling interest switch to net exporter

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 40

Heavier downstream unit turnarounds and production adjustments led to more S Korea-origin exports

H1 2015 H1 2016

0

20

40

60

80

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Qty

in 0

00 to

nnes

South Korea exports

China Taiwan Vietnam US Japan Singapore India Others

Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 13 00Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 00 00 18 00Hyundai Cosmo TDP Daesan 00 00 00 50 200 00S Oil No 2 TDP Onsan 00 00 00 200 00 00

00 00 00 250 231 00Producer LocationLG Chem Daesan 00 00 23 23 00 00YNCC No 1 Yeosu 00 00 00 00 50 50Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 00 00 00 08 63 00Lotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 23 00 00S Oil No 2 Onsan 00 00 124 267 00 00SKGC Incheon 67 00 00 00 00 00

67 00 147 321 113 50

Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)

Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)

Source ICIS

Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 00 87Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 27 00 00 00OCI TDI Kunsan 00 06 00 00 00 00GSCX STDP Yeosu 00 00 00 583 82 00Hanwha Total TDP Daesan 00 00 222 278 00 00SKGC TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 00 49 208LG H D A Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38

38 45 288 899 169 333Producer Location Hanwha Total Daesan 00 00 153 191 00 00GSCX Yeosu 00 00 00 174 49 00Lotte Chem Yeosu 00 00 00 47 16 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 00 78 333YNCC Yeosu 00 00 33 17 00 00

00 00 186 428 143 333

Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)

Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)

wwwiciscom 41wwwiciscom 41

NE Asia and SE Asia exports to China rise since H2 2015 on healthy netbacks strong demand

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

USD

tonne

Qty

in 0

00 to

nnes

Others

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea

Import parity of domesticcargoesFOB South Korea prices

Increase in selling to China because of healthy netbacks weak TDP spread

Narrow gap results in fewer imports in line with FOB K price support from PX

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 42wwwiciscom 42

Exports from Asia to US market sporadic highly dependent on price gap gasoline blending season and Asia demand

0

10

20

30

40

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250Q

ty in 000 tonnesU

SDto

nne

Price gap (Asia prompt vs US forward) Exports from Asia to US

Open arbitrage opportunities result in increase of Asia exports

Consistent upward trend leads to selling interest

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 43wwwiciscom 43

India TOL imports mainly from SE Asia and Iran

46

23

17

37

4

2014

Singapore Thailand Iran S Korea Europe Others

2015

50

24

9

37

7

Source customs data

Total= 288kt Total= 288kt

wwwiciscom 44wwwiciscom 44

NE Asia TOL supply could outstrip demand in H2 2016 on heavier downstream turnarounds permanent shutdowns

H2 2015 H2 2016

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S Oil Onsan old TDP Onsan 00 42 42 00 00 00

00 42 42 00 00 00FCFC Aroma 2 TDP Mailiao 67 200 00 00 00 00

67 200 00 00 00 00JX Nippon Oil TDP Mizushima A 00 00 75 75 00 00

00 00 75 75 00 0067 242 117 75 00 00

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecLotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 73 25 00KPIC Ulsan 00 00 00 83 00 00S Oil No 1 Onsan 00 146 146 00 00 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 167 333 00OCI Yeosu 00 00 00 33 00 00

00 146 146 357 358 00Mitsui Chemicals Chiba 00 00 00 83 83 00JX Nippon Oil Mizushima A 00 00 117 233 00 00Tonen General Wakayama 00 00 00 69 92 00

00 00 117 385 175 00FCFC Aroma No 2 Mailiao 83 250 00 00 00 00CPC No 6 Kaohsiung 40 00 20 80 20 00CPC No3 Kaoshiung 00 00 00 00 83 55

123 250 20 80 103 55123 396 283 822 636 55

Est TOL consumption loss from KR

Est TOL consumption loss from TW

Est TOL production loss from KR

Total est consumption loss from NE Asia

Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia

CONSUMPTION (mt)

PRODUCTION (mt)

Est TOL consumption loss from JPN

Est TOL production loss from JPN

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUlsan Aromatics Center TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 1000 500 00SKGC TDP Incheon 00 00 00 83 42 00LG Chem H D A (shut since Jan) Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38

38 38 38 1122 580 38Taiyo Oil TDP cut rate only Kikuma 42 07 00 00 00 00MSNC TDI (shut since April) Omuta 65 65 65 65 65 65

107 72 65 65 65 65145 110 103 1187 645 103

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSKGC Incheon 00 00 00 133 67 00

00 00 00 133 67 00Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 00 00 108 108 00 00JFEC Chiba 00 00 14 42 00 00

00 00 122 150 00 00CPC No 7 Kaohsiung 00 00 00 27 108 00CPC No 3 Kaohsiung 110 00 00 00 00 00

110 00 00 27 108 00110 00 122 310 175 00

Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia

PRODUCTION (mt)

CONSUMPTION (mt)

Est TOL consumption loss from KR

Est TOL consumption loss from JPNTotal est consumption loss from NE Asia

Est TOL production loss from KR

Est TOL production loss from JPN

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016

Qty

in to

nnes

Total est consumption loss from NE Asia Total est production loss from NE AsiaSource ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45

Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance

Source ICIS

bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016

bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread

bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption

bull Improvements in TOL blend values

bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading

bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer

bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers

bull Other competitively priced blendstocks

bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL

bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China

TOL supply

TOL demand

Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors

wwwiciscom 46

Drivers of benzene trade flow

wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47

-60-40-200204060

500550600650700750800850900

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea

China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016

020000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000180000200000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Tonn

es

Others

MiddleEastThailand

Malaysia

Taiwan

Japan

SouthKorea

China imports

Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand

Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance

Strong appetite for imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48

Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

-

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

Pric

e ($

tonn

e)

Tonn

es

Shore tank inventories

E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity

2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite

Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains

Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49

-80-60-40-20020406080100

500550600650700750800850900950

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15

Tonn

es

OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea

Imports from Asia increase

Imports lower due to higher China prices

S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015

Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates

US imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50

Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600Ja

n-14

Feb-

14M

ar-1

4A

pr-1

4M

ay-1

4Ju

n-14

Jul-1

4A

ug-1

4Se

p-14

Oct

-14

Nov

-14

Dec

-14

Jan-

15Fe

b-15

Mar

-15

Apr

-15

May

-15

Jun-

15Ju

l-15

Aug

-15

Sep-

15O

ct-1

5N

ov-1

5D

ec-1

5Ja

n-16

Feb-

16M

ar-1

6A

pr-1

6

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)Naphtha-Benzene

Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene

$346t $193t $230t

wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51

S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32

Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300

SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15

YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37

2015 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25

S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25

SK Global Chem Incheon 200

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16

OthersTaiwanChinaUS

S Korea exports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52

Outlook increased supply likely to head to China

Source ICIS industry

Company Location BZ Start up period

Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016

Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16

Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos

(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul

Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16

Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16

Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16

Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017

Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex

Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017

Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017

KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017

Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017

Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726

Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322

Product Company Location Capacity(kta)

BZ usage Start up period

SM

Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16

Donghao China 300 240 May-16

Phenol

PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16

Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16

Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17

PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017

Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017

CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17

CPL

Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16

China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16

Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16

MDI

Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017

Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017

Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017

Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972

Consumption within China in 2016 637 655

wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53

Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season

S Korea 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75

BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0

S Korea 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5

KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26

S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13

BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3

Japan 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36

Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12

BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0

Japan 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23

Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24

JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24

BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17

Source ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54

BZ demandBZ supply

bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China

bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ

bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene

bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units

bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher

bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure

bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed

bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand

Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55

Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom

Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom

Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom

Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom

wwwiciscom 56

Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets

Pricing information

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We produce reliable price assessments and analyses covering Asian aromatics and olefins markets including price histories and a 12-month rolling price forecast enabling you to understand price drivers and settle your contract prices more confidently Our pricing coverage includes

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wwwiciscom 57

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Page 17: Asia Olefins & Aromatics Markets –A Turning of the Tide? · PDF fileBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news, ... Saudi Arabia 1,500 350 LDPE,1,080 solution PEQ2/mid 2016

wwwiciscom 18

Crude oversupply expected to ease in H2 2016

wwwiciscom 1919Source Industry

2016 ethylene production losses from cracker turnarounds largely in Q2-Q3 overall losses down

34 YoY

wwwiciscom 2020Source Industry

Net losses after including +70kta at Asahi-Mitsubishi JV cracker

Output losses higher than 2015 after factoring in Shellrsquos Singapore cracker outage Asahirsquos cracker closure

wwwiciscom 2121Source Industry

Japan becomes structurally tighter

wwwiciscom 2222Source Industry

S Korearsquos exports likely to stabilise at low levels of around 650kt in 2016 after falling for two years

wwwiciscom 2323

End 2015-2016 ethylene capacity expansions in AsiaMideast

Saudi+1800kta

India+3270kta

Iran+2000kta Japan

+70ktaChina+1615kta

Source Industry

Total 9015 kta

Indonesia+260kta

wwwiciscom 2424Source Industry

Cracker expansions concentrated in IndiaMideast mostly integrated

Company Location

C2 capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr) Start-up schedule

Chandra Asri Cilegon Indonesia +260 to 860 Dec 2015Asahi Kasei Mitsubishi Chemical Ethylene Corp Mizushima Japan +70 to 570 1 Apr 2016GAIL Auraiya India 450 400 PE End Feb 2016Brahmaputra Cracker and Polymer Ltd (BCPL) Lepetkata Assam India 220 220 HDPELLDPE End Q1 2016

ONGC Petro Additions (OPaL) Dahej Gujarat India 1100 340 HDPE 720HDPELLDPE Late Q2 2016

Reliance Jamnagar India 1500 750 MEG 550 LLDPE 450 LDPE End 2016

Sadara Chemical Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia 1500 350 LDPE 1080 solution PE Q2mid 2016 at earliest

Petro Rabigh Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia +300 to 1600 150 LDPEEVA 75 EPDM Apr 2016 (cracker only)

Kavian Petrochemical Bushehr Iran 1000Supply to domestic plants via west pipeline H2 20162017

Arvand Petrochemical Gachsaran Iran 1000Feeds own vinyls plants+pipeline customers H2 20162017

Total C27400

wwwiciscom 2525

Expansions in China centred on integrated coal-based projects

Source Industry

Company Location Facility

C2 capacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstreamcapacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr

Start-upschedule

Shenhua Yulin Shenmu Shaanxi MTO 300 300 PE Dec 2015Inner Mongolia ChinaCoal Mengda New Energy amp Chemical Industry

Erdos Inner Mongolia CTO 300

300HDPELLDPE Apr 2016

Shenhua Xinjiang Urumqi Xinjiang CTO 320 320 LDPE Late Q2 2016

Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Golmud Qinghai CTO 160 300 PVC Q3 2016

Fund (Changzhou) Energy amp Chemical Changzhou Jiangsu MTO 165 Q3 2016

Jiangsu Sailboat PetrochemicalLianyungang Jiangsu MTO 370

300 EVALDPE 180 EO 20 MEG Q4 2016

Total C21615 Will supply to Changzhou Dohowrsquos new 300kta SM plant

wwwiciscom 2626Source Industry

More capacity increases at crackers in NESE Asia in 2017

Company Location

C2 capacityadditions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Completion schedule

Korea Petrochemical Industry Co (KPIC)

Onsan South Korea +330 to 800 Mid 2017

Lotte Chemical TitanPasir Gudang Malaysia 90 H1 2017

CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals (CSPC)

Huizhou Guangdong China 1000

150 EO 480 EG400 HDPE 300 LLDPE 700 SM End 20172018

Total C2 1420

wwwiciscom 27Source Industry

Chinarsquos ethylene import demand in 2016 could increase to around 1550-1600kt from 2015rsquos 1516kt

wwwiciscom 2828

Arbitrage amp Mideast cargoes help offset regional supply shortfalls around 500-565kt expected in 2016

Source Industry

Saudi 170-175kt

US 130-140kt

Europe 200-250kt

Projected spot supply excludes term cargoes

wwwiciscom 29

US ethane-based derivative expansions ndash an emerging threat

wwwiciscom 30

Company LocationC2 capacity (rsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream (lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Start-up schedule

Chevron Phillips ChemicalCedar Bayou Texas 1500

500 Bimodal HDPE 500 mLLDPE at Sweeny Mid 2017

Dow Chemical Freeport Texas 1500400 ELITE PE 350 LDPE 320 elastomers 200 EPDM H1 2017

ExxonMobil Chemical Baytown Texas 1500650x2 mLLDPE plus LLDPE at Mont Belvieu H2 2017

Formosa PlasticsPoint Comfort Texas 1590

525 PE unspec 6255 LDPE1000 MEG 20172018

Occidental ChemicalMexichem Ingleside Texas 544 Feed into existing 1050 VCM Q1 2017

SasolLake Charles Louisiana 1500

450 LDPE 450 LLDPE 300EOEG 300 ethoxylatesdetergent alcohols 2018

Total C28134 Total PE 51005

2017-2018 US ethylene amp derivatives projects country to become major PE exporter

Source ICIS Chemical Business

wwwiciscom 31

Chinarsquos PE deficit to continue

wwwiciscom 32wwwiciscom 32

Asia ethylene market to remain tight in 2016

Low-cost US PE exports likely to begin in late 2017 operations of naphtha-based integrated producers in Asia may be impacted

Conclusion

wwwiciscom 33

Asiarsquos toluene and benzene trade flows

wwwiciscom 34

Drivers of Asiarsquos toluene trade flow

wwwiciscom 35wwwiciscom 35

Asiarsquos TOL prices still tracks PX but relationship may weaken on narrower TDP spreads wider toluene-naphtha gap

0

50

100

150

200

250

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

160002

-Jan

-201

422

-Jan

-201

412

-Feb

-201

404

-Mar

-201

424

-Mar

-201

411

-Apr

-201

401

-May

-201

421

-May

-201

410

-Jun

-201

430

-Jun

-201

418

-Jul

-201

407

-Aug

-201

427

-Aug

-201

416

-Sep

-201

406

-Oct

-201

424

-Oct

-201

413

-Nov

-201

403

-Dec

-201

423

-Dec

-201

421

-Jan

-201

510

-Feb

-201

504

-Mar

-201

524

-Mar

-201

513

-Apr

-201

504

-May

-201

522

-May

-201

511

-Jun

-201

501

-Jul

-201

521

-Jul

-201

511

-Aug

-201

531

-Aug

-201

518

-Sep

-201

508

-Oct

-201

528

-Oct

-201

517

-Nov

-201

507

-Dec

-201

504

-Jan

-201

622

-Jan

-201

615

-Feb

-201

604

-Mar

-201

624

-Mar

-201

6

TDP spread (U

SDtonne)

USD

tonn

e

TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Toluene FOB K PX CFR CN

CF 094

CF 095

CF = correlation factor

CF 092

CF= 093

Healthy margins prevailed in 2014 supporting the closer relationship between PX and TOL prices

Margins turned largely negative in 2015 weakening the relationship slightly Strong blend value (BV) of TOL had larger impact on prices

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 36wwwiciscom 36

Wider toluene-naphtha spread since end-2015 increased toluene selling impetus instead of downstream usage allocation

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400Price spread (U

SDtonne)

USD

tonn

e

Toluene-Naphtha spread Naphtha CFR Japan Toluene FOB South Korea

Heavy speculation low Chinese + Indian inventory healthy PX spread led to widened spread in Q1 2016

Price increases supported by start-up of UAC higher usage of TOL for TDP units in addition to summer blending season

Breakeven level

Ave = 230Ave = 170Ave = 170

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 37wwwiciscom 37

TOL heavily placed in blending pool in 2015 capping op rates of downstream TDPs 2016 situation may be reversed

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

USD

tonn

e

Toluene blend value Toluene FOB Korea prices

95-TOL CF= 090

Strong TOL BV in H1 of 2014 results in the price support from gasoline blending strengthening relationship between the two

FOB K prices consistently higher than BV difficult to find demand from blending pool

95-TOL CF= 06895-TOL CF= 090

TOL BV surpasses TOL FOB K making it possible to be placed into blending pool for most of 2015

CF = correlation factorSource ICIS

wwwiciscom 38wwwiciscom 38

Chinese inventories have heavy influence on buying interest Q1 shortage supported sellersrsquo decision to offload more TOL

Ave = 103kt Ave = 903kt Ave = 89kt

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

USD

tonne0

00 to

nnes

east China south China CFR China price Import parity price of CNY cargoes

Strong demand from gasoline blending sector and cargo delays result in 3-year low inventories

Period of strong demand

Previously overbought slow offtake after LNY

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 39

S Korearsquos importexport position for TOL dependent on TDP spreads switch in production strategies in Q1 2016

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

50

100

150

200

25003

-Jan

-201

424

-Jan

-201

414

-Feb

-201

407

-Mar

-201

428

-Mar

-201

418

-Apr

-201

409

-May

-201

430

-May

-201

420

-Jun

-201

411

-Jul

-201

401

-Aug

-201

422

-Aug

-201

412

-Sep

-201

403

-Oct

-201

424

-Oct

-201

414

-Nov

-201

405

-Dec

-201

426

-Dec

-201

423

-Jan

-201

513

-Feb

-201

506

-Mar

-201

527

-Mar

-201

517

-Apr

-201

508

-May

-201

529

-May

-201

519

-Jun

-201

510

-Jul

-201

531

-Jul

-201

521

-Aug

-201

511

-Sep

-201

502

-Oct

-201

523

-Oct

-201

513

-Nov

-201

504

-Dec

-201

525

-Dec

-201

522

-Jan

-201

612

-Feb

-201

604

-Mar

-201

625

-Mar

-201

615

-Apr

-201

6

Qty in lsquo000 tonnes

USD

tonn

e

TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Exports from S Korea Imports to S Korea

Start up of UACrsquos TDP

Slight strategy switch as low Chinese inventories strong naphtha-TOL spread since Q1 leads to stronger TOL selling interest

Overall drop in TDP spreads from mid-2014 results in selling interest switch to net exporter

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 40

Heavier downstream unit turnarounds and production adjustments led to more S Korea-origin exports

H1 2015 H1 2016

0

20

40

60

80

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Qty

in 0

00 to

nnes

South Korea exports

China Taiwan Vietnam US Japan Singapore India Others

Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 13 00Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 00 00 18 00Hyundai Cosmo TDP Daesan 00 00 00 50 200 00S Oil No 2 TDP Onsan 00 00 00 200 00 00

00 00 00 250 231 00Producer LocationLG Chem Daesan 00 00 23 23 00 00YNCC No 1 Yeosu 00 00 00 00 50 50Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 00 00 00 08 63 00Lotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 23 00 00S Oil No 2 Onsan 00 00 124 267 00 00SKGC Incheon 67 00 00 00 00 00

67 00 147 321 113 50

Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)

Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)

Source ICIS

Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 00 87Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 27 00 00 00OCI TDI Kunsan 00 06 00 00 00 00GSCX STDP Yeosu 00 00 00 583 82 00Hanwha Total TDP Daesan 00 00 222 278 00 00SKGC TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 00 49 208LG H D A Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38

38 45 288 899 169 333Producer Location Hanwha Total Daesan 00 00 153 191 00 00GSCX Yeosu 00 00 00 174 49 00Lotte Chem Yeosu 00 00 00 47 16 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 00 78 333YNCC Yeosu 00 00 33 17 00 00

00 00 186 428 143 333

Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)

Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)

wwwiciscom 41wwwiciscom 41

NE Asia and SE Asia exports to China rise since H2 2015 on healthy netbacks strong demand

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

USD

tonne

Qty

in 0

00 to

nnes

Others

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea

Import parity of domesticcargoesFOB South Korea prices

Increase in selling to China because of healthy netbacks weak TDP spread

Narrow gap results in fewer imports in line with FOB K price support from PX

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 42wwwiciscom 42

Exports from Asia to US market sporadic highly dependent on price gap gasoline blending season and Asia demand

0

10

20

30

40

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250Q

ty in 000 tonnesU

SDto

nne

Price gap (Asia prompt vs US forward) Exports from Asia to US

Open arbitrage opportunities result in increase of Asia exports

Consistent upward trend leads to selling interest

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 43wwwiciscom 43

India TOL imports mainly from SE Asia and Iran

46

23

17

37

4

2014

Singapore Thailand Iran S Korea Europe Others

2015

50

24

9

37

7

Source customs data

Total= 288kt Total= 288kt

wwwiciscom 44wwwiciscom 44

NE Asia TOL supply could outstrip demand in H2 2016 on heavier downstream turnarounds permanent shutdowns

H2 2015 H2 2016

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S Oil Onsan old TDP Onsan 00 42 42 00 00 00

00 42 42 00 00 00FCFC Aroma 2 TDP Mailiao 67 200 00 00 00 00

67 200 00 00 00 00JX Nippon Oil TDP Mizushima A 00 00 75 75 00 00

00 00 75 75 00 0067 242 117 75 00 00

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecLotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 73 25 00KPIC Ulsan 00 00 00 83 00 00S Oil No 1 Onsan 00 146 146 00 00 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 167 333 00OCI Yeosu 00 00 00 33 00 00

00 146 146 357 358 00Mitsui Chemicals Chiba 00 00 00 83 83 00JX Nippon Oil Mizushima A 00 00 117 233 00 00Tonen General Wakayama 00 00 00 69 92 00

00 00 117 385 175 00FCFC Aroma No 2 Mailiao 83 250 00 00 00 00CPC No 6 Kaohsiung 40 00 20 80 20 00CPC No3 Kaoshiung 00 00 00 00 83 55

123 250 20 80 103 55123 396 283 822 636 55

Est TOL consumption loss from KR

Est TOL consumption loss from TW

Est TOL production loss from KR

Total est consumption loss from NE Asia

Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia

CONSUMPTION (mt)

PRODUCTION (mt)

Est TOL consumption loss from JPN

Est TOL production loss from JPN

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUlsan Aromatics Center TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 1000 500 00SKGC TDP Incheon 00 00 00 83 42 00LG Chem H D A (shut since Jan) Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38

38 38 38 1122 580 38Taiyo Oil TDP cut rate only Kikuma 42 07 00 00 00 00MSNC TDI (shut since April) Omuta 65 65 65 65 65 65

107 72 65 65 65 65145 110 103 1187 645 103

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSKGC Incheon 00 00 00 133 67 00

00 00 00 133 67 00Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 00 00 108 108 00 00JFEC Chiba 00 00 14 42 00 00

00 00 122 150 00 00CPC No 7 Kaohsiung 00 00 00 27 108 00CPC No 3 Kaohsiung 110 00 00 00 00 00

110 00 00 27 108 00110 00 122 310 175 00

Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia

PRODUCTION (mt)

CONSUMPTION (mt)

Est TOL consumption loss from KR

Est TOL consumption loss from JPNTotal est consumption loss from NE Asia

Est TOL production loss from KR

Est TOL production loss from JPN

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016

Qty

in to

nnes

Total est consumption loss from NE Asia Total est production loss from NE AsiaSource ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45

Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance

Source ICIS

bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016

bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread

bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption

bull Improvements in TOL blend values

bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading

bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer

bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers

bull Other competitively priced blendstocks

bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL

bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China

TOL supply

TOL demand

Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors

wwwiciscom 46

Drivers of benzene trade flow

wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47

-60-40-200204060

500550600650700750800850900

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea

China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016

020000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000180000200000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Tonn

es

Others

MiddleEastThailand

Malaysia

Taiwan

Japan

SouthKorea

China imports

Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand

Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance

Strong appetite for imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48

Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

-

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

Pric

e ($

tonn

e)

Tonn

es

Shore tank inventories

E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity

2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite

Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains

Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49

-80-60-40-20020406080100

500550600650700750800850900950

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15

Tonn

es

OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea

Imports from Asia increase

Imports lower due to higher China prices

S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015

Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates

US imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50

Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600Ja

n-14

Feb-

14M

ar-1

4A

pr-1

4M

ay-1

4Ju

n-14

Jul-1

4A

ug-1

4Se

p-14

Oct

-14

Nov

-14

Dec

-14

Jan-

15Fe

b-15

Mar

-15

Apr

-15

May

-15

Jun-

15Ju

l-15

Aug

-15

Sep-

15O

ct-1

5N

ov-1

5D

ec-1

5Ja

n-16

Feb-

16M

ar-1

6A

pr-1

6

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)Naphtha-Benzene

Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene

$346t $193t $230t

wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51

S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32

Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300

SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15

YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37

2015 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25

S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25

SK Global Chem Incheon 200

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16

OthersTaiwanChinaUS

S Korea exports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52

Outlook increased supply likely to head to China

Source ICIS industry

Company Location BZ Start up period

Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016

Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16

Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos

(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul

Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16

Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16

Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16

Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017

Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex

Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017

Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017

KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017

Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017

Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726

Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322

Product Company Location Capacity(kta)

BZ usage Start up period

SM

Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16

Donghao China 300 240 May-16

Phenol

PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16

Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16

Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17

PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017

Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017

CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17

CPL

Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16

China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16

Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16

MDI

Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017

Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017

Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017

Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972

Consumption within China in 2016 637 655

wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53

Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season

S Korea 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75

BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0

S Korea 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5

KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26

S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13

BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3

Japan 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36

Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12

BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0

Japan 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23

Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24

JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24

BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17

Source ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54

BZ demandBZ supply

bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China

bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ

bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene

bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units

bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher

bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure

bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed

bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand

Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55

Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom

Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom

Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom

Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom

wwwiciscom 56

Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets

Pricing information

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wwwiciscom 57

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Page 18: Asia Olefins & Aromatics Markets –A Turning of the Tide? · PDF fileBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news, ... Saudi Arabia 1,500 350 LDPE,1,080 solution PEQ2/mid 2016

wwwiciscom 1919Source Industry

2016 ethylene production losses from cracker turnarounds largely in Q2-Q3 overall losses down

34 YoY

wwwiciscom 2020Source Industry

Net losses after including +70kta at Asahi-Mitsubishi JV cracker

Output losses higher than 2015 after factoring in Shellrsquos Singapore cracker outage Asahirsquos cracker closure

wwwiciscom 2121Source Industry

Japan becomes structurally tighter

wwwiciscom 2222Source Industry

S Korearsquos exports likely to stabilise at low levels of around 650kt in 2016 after falling for two years

wwwiciscom 2323

End 2015-2016 ethylene capacity expansions in AsiaMideast

Saudi+1800kta

India+3270kta

Iran+2000kta Japan

+70ktaChina+1615kta

Source Industry

Total 9015 kta

Indonesia+260kta

wwwiciscom 2424Source Industry

Cracker expansions concentrated in IndiaMideast mostly integrated

Company Location

C2 capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr) Start-up schedule

Chandra Asri Cilegon Indonesia +260 to 860 Dec 2015Asahi Kasei Mitsubishi Chemical Ethylene Corp Mizushima Japan +70 to 570 1 Apr 2016GAIL Auraiya India 450 400 PE End Feb 2016Brahmaputra Cracker and Polymer Ltd (BCPL) Lepetkata Assam India 220 220 HDPELLDPE End Q1 2016

ONGC Petro Additions (OPaL) Dahej Gujarat India 1100 340 HDPE 720HDPELLDPE Late Q2 2016

Reliance Jamnagar India 1500 750 MEG 550 LLDPE 450 LDPE End 2016

Sadara Chemical Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia 1500 350 LDPE 1080 solution PE Q2mid 2016 at earliest

Petro Rabigh Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia +300 to 1600 150 LDPEEVA 75 EPDM Apr 2016 (cracker only)

Kavian Petrochemical Bushehr Iran 1000Supply to domestic plants via west pipeline H2 20162017

Arvand Petrochemical Gachsaran Iran 1000Feeds own vinyls plants+pipeline customers H2 20162017

Total C27400

wwwiciscom 2525

Expansions in China centred on integrated coal-based projects

Source Industry

Company Location Facility

C2 capacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstreamcapacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr

Start-upschedule

Shenhua Yulin Shenmu Shaanxi MTO 300 300 PE Dec 2015Inner Mongolia ChinaCoal Mengda New Energy amp Chemical Industry

Erdos Inner Mongolia CTO 300

300HDPELLDPE Apr 2016

Shenhua Xinjiang Urumqi Xinjiang CTO 320 320 LDPE Late Q2 2016

Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Golmud Qinghai CTO 160 300 PVC Q3 2016

Fund (Changzhou) Energy amp Chemical Changzhou Jiangsu MTO 165 Q3 2016

Jiangsu Sailboat PetrochemicalLianyungang Jiangsu MTO 370

300 EVALDPE 180 EO 20 MEG Q4 2016

Total C21615 Will supply to Changzhou Dohowrsquos new 300kta SM plant

wwwiciscom 2626Source Industry

More capacity increases at crackers in NESE Asia in 2017

Company Location

C2 capacityadditions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Completion schedule

Korea Petrochemical Industry Co (KPIC)

Onsan South Korea +330 to 800 Mid 2017

Lotte Chemical TitanPasir Gudang Malaysia 90 H1 2017

CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals (CSPC)

Huizhou Guangdong China 1000

150 EO 480 EG400 HDPE 300 LLDPE 700 SM End 20172018

Total C2 1420

wwwiciscom 27Source Industry

Chinarsquos ethylene import demand in 2016 could increase to around 1550-1600kt from 2015rsquos 1516kt

wwwiciscom 2828

Arbitrage amp Mideast cargoes help offset regional supply shortfalls around 500-565kt expected in 2016

Source Industry

Saudi 170-175kt

US 130-140kt

Europe 200-250kt

Projected spot supply excludes term cargoes

wwwiciscom 29

US ethane-based derivative expansions ndash an emerging threat

wwwiciscom 30

Company LocationC2 capacity (rsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream (lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Start-up schedule

Chevron Phillips ChemicalCedar Bayou Texas 1500

500 Bimodal HDPE 500 mLLDPE at Sweeny Mid 2017

Dow Chemical Freeport Texas 1500400 ELITE PE 350 LDPE 320 elastomers 200 EPDM H1 2017

ExxonMobil Chemical Baytown Texas 1500650x2 mLLDPE plus LLDPE at Mont Belvieu H2 2017

Formosa PlasticsPoint Comfort Texas 1590

525 PE unspec 6255 LDPE1000 MEG 20172018

Occidental ChemicalMexichem Ingleside Texas 544 Feed into existing 1050 VCM Q1 2017

SasolLake Charles Louisiana 1500

450 LDPE 450 LLDPE 300EOEG 300 ethoxylatesdetergent alcohols 2018

Total C28134 Total PE 51005

2017-2018 US ethylene amp derivatives projects country to become major PE exporter

Source ICIS Chemical Business

wwwiciscom 31

Chinarsquos PE deficit to continue

wwwiciscom 32wwwiciscom 32

Asia ethylene market to remain tight in 2016

Low-cost US PE exports likely to begin in late 2017 operations of naphtha-based integrated producers in Asia may be impacted

Conclusion

wwwiciscom 33

Asiarsquos toluene and benzene trade flows

wwwiciscom 34

Drivers of Asiarsquos toluene trade flow

wwwiciscom 35wwwiciscom 35

Asiarsquos TOL prices still tracks PX but relationship may weaken on narrower TDP spreads wider toluene-naphtha gap

0

50

100

150

200

250

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

160002

-Jan

-201

422

-Jan

-201

412

-Feb

-201

404

-Mar

-201

424

-Mar

-201

411

-Apr

-201

401

-May

-201

421

-May

-201

410

-Jun

-201

430

-Jun

-201

418

-Jul

-201

407

-Aug

-201

427

-Aug

-201

416

-Sep

-201

406

-Oct

-201

424

-Oct

-201

413

-Nov

-201

403

-Dec

-201

423

-Dec

-201

421

-Jan

-201

510

-Feb

-201

504

-Mar

-201

524

-Mar

-201

513

-Apr

-201

504

-May

-201

522

-May

-201

511

-Jun

-201

501

-Jul

-201

521

-Jul

-201

511

-Aug

-201

531

-Aug

-201

518

-Sep

-201

508

-Oct

-201

528

-Oct

-201

517

-Nov

-201

507

-Dec

-201

504

-Jan

-201

622

-Jan

-201

615

-Feb

-201

604

-Mar

-201

624

-Mar

-201

6

TDP spread (U

SDtonne)

USD

tonn

e

TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Toluene FOB K PX CFR CN

CF 094

CF 095

CF = correlation factor

CF 092

CF= 093

Healthy margins prevailed in 2014 supporting the closer relationship between PX and TOL prices

Margins turned largely negative in 2015 weakening the relationship slightly Strong blend value (BV) of TOL had larger impact on prices

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 36wwwiciscom 36

Wider toluene-naphtha spread since end-2015 increased toluene selling impetus instead of downstream usage allocation

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400Price spread (U

SDtonne)

USD

tonn

e

Toluene-Naphtha spread Naphtha CFR Japan Toluene FOB South Korea

Heavy speculation low Chinese + Indian inventory healthy PX spread led to widened spread in Q1 2016

Price increases supported by start-up of UAC higher usage of TOL for TDP units in addition to summer blending season

Breakeven level

Ave = 230Ave = 170Ave = 170

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 37wwwiciscom 37

TOL heavily placed in blending pool in 2015 capping op rates of downstream TDPs 2016 situation may be reversed

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

USD

tonn

e

Toluene blend value Toluene FOB Korea prices

95-TOL CF= 090

Strong TOL BV in H1 of 2014 results in the price support from gasoline blending strengthening relationship between the two

FOB K prices consistently higher than BV difficult to find demand from blending pool

95-TOL CF= 06895-TOL CF= 090

TOL BV surpasses TOL FOB K making it possible to be placed into blending pool for most of 2015

CF = correlation factorSource ICIS

wwwiciscom 38wwwiciscom 38

Chinese inventories have heavy influence on buying interest Q1 shortage supported sellersrsquo decision to offload more TOL

Ave = 103kt Ave = 903kt Ave = 89kt

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

USD

tonne0

00 to

nnes

east China south China CFR China price Import parity price of CNY cargoes

Strong demand from gasoline blending sector and cargo delays result in 3-year low inventories

Period of strong demand

Previously overbought slow offtake after LNY

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 39

S Korearsquos importexport position for TOL dependent on TDP spreads switch in production strategies in Q1 2016

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

50

100

150

200

25003

-Jan

-201

424

-Jan

-201

414

-Feb

-201

407

-Mar

-201

428

-Mar

-201

418

-Apr

-201

409

-May

-201

430

-May

-201

420

-Jun

-201

411

-Jul

-201

401

-Aug

-201

422

-Aug

-201

412

-Sep

-201

403

-Oct

-201

424

-Oct

-201

414

-Nov

-201

405

-Dec

-201

426

-Dec

-201

423

-Jan

-201

513

-Feb

-201

506

-Mar

-201

527

-Mar

-201

517

-Apr

-201

508

-May

-201

529

-May

-201

519

-Jun

-201

510

-Jul

-201

531

-Jul

-201

521

-Aug

-201

511

-Sep

-201

502

-Oct

-201

523

-Oct

-201

513

-Nov

-201

504

-Dec

-201

525

-Dec

-201

522

-Jan

-201

612

-Feb

-201

604

-Mar

-201

625

-Mar

-201

615

-Apr

-201

6

Qty in lsquo000 tonnes

USD

tonn

e

TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Exports from S Korea Imports to S Korea

Start up of UACrsquos TDP

Slight strategy switch as low Chinese inventories strong naphtha-TOL spread since Q1 leads to stronger TOL selling interest

Overall drop in TDP spreads from mid-2014 results in selling interest switch to net exporter

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 40

Heavier downstream unit turnarounds and production adjustments led to more S Korea-origin exports

H1 2015 H1 2016

0

20

40

60

80

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Qty

in 0

00 to

nnes

South Korea exports

China Taiwan Vietnam US Japan Singapore India Others

Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 13 00Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 00 00 18 00Hyundai Cosmo TDP Daesan 00 00 00 50 200 00S Oil No 2 TDP Onsan 00 00 00 200 00 00

00 00 00 250 231 00Producer LocationLG Chem Daesan 00 00 23 23 00 00YNCC No 1 Yeosu 00 00 00 00 50 50Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 00 00 00 08 63 00Lotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 23 00 00S Oil No 2 Onsan 00 00 124 267 00 00SKGC Incheon 67 00 00 00 00 00

67 00 147 321 113 50

Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)

Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)

Source ICIS

Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 00 87Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 27 00 00 00OCI TDI Kunsan 00 06 00 00 00 00GSCX STDP Yeosu 00 00 00 583 82 00Hanwha Total TDP Daesan 00 00 222 278 00 00SKGC TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 00 49 208LG H D A Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38

38 45 288 899 169 333Producer Location Hanwha Total Daesan 00 00 153 191 00 00GSCX Yeosu 00 00 00 174 49 00Lotte Chem Yeosu 00 00 00 47 16 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 00 78 333YNCC Yeosu 00 00 33 17 00 00

00 00 186 428 143 333

Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)

Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)

wwwiciscom 41wwwiciscom 41

NE Asia and SE Asia exports to China rise since H2 2015 on healthy netbacks strong demand

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

USD

tonne

Qty

in 0

00 to

nnes

Others

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea

Import parity of domesticcargoesFOB South Korea prices

Increase in selling to China because of healthy netbacks weak TDP spread

Narrow gap results in fewer imports in line with FOB K price support from PX

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 42wwwiciscom 42

Exports from Asia to US market sporadic highly dependent on price gap gasoline blending season and Asia demand

0

10

20

30

40

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250Q

ty in 000 tonnesU

SDto

nne

Price gap (Asia prompt vs US forward) Exports from Asia to US

Open arbitrage opportunities result in increase of Asia exports

Consistent upward trend leads to selling interest

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 43wwwiciscom 43

India TOL imports mainly from SE Asia and Iran

46

23

17

37

4

2014

Singapore Thailand Iran S Korea Europe Others

2015

50

24

9

37

7

Source customs data

Total= 288kt Total= 288kt

wwwiciscom 44wwwiciscom 44

NE Asia TOL supply could outstrip demand in H2 2016 on heavier downstream turnarounds permanent shutdowns

H2 2015 H2 2016

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S Oil Onsan old TDP Onsan 00 42 42 00 00 00

00 42 42 00 00 00FCFC Aroma 2 TDP Mailiao 67 200 00 00 00 00

67 200 00 00 00 00JX Nippon Oil TDP Mizushima A 00 00 75 75 00 00

00 00 75 75 00 0067 242 117 75 00 00

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecLotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 73 25 00KPIC Ulsan 00 00 00 83 00 00S Oil No 1 Onsan 00 146 146 00 00 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 167 333 00OCI Yeosu 00 00 00 33 00 00

00 146 146 357 358 00Mitsui Chemicals Chiba 00 00 00 83 83 00JX Nippon Oil Mizushima A 00 00 117 233 00 00Tonen General Wakayama 00 00 00 69 92 00

00 00 117 385 175 00FCFC Aroma No 2 Mailiao 83 250 00 00 00 00CPC No 6 Kaohsiung 40 00 20 80 20 00CPC No3 Kaoshiung 00 00 00 00 83 55

123 250 20 80 103 55123 396 283 822 636 55

Est TOL consumption loss from KR

Est TOL consumption loss from TW

Est TOL production loss from KR

Total est consumption loss from NE Asia

Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia

CONSUMPTION (mt)

PRODUCTION (mt)

Est TOL consumption loss from JPN

Est TOL production loss from JPN

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUlsan Aromatics Center TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 1000 500 00SKGC TDP Incheon 00 00 00 83 42 00LG Chem H D A (shut since Jan) Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38

38 38 38 1122 580 38Taiyo Oil TDP cut rate only Kikuma 42 07 00 00 00 00MSNC TDI (shut since April) Omuta 65 65 65 65 65 65

107 72 65 65 65 65145 110 103 1187 645 103

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSKGC Incheon 00 00 00 133 67 00

00 00 00 133 67 00Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 00 00 108 108 00 00JFEC Chiba 00 00 14 42 00 00

00 00 122 150 00 00CPC No 7 Kaohsiung 00 00 00 27 108 00CPC No 3 Kaohsiung 110 00 00 00 00 00

110 00 00 27 108 00110 00 122 310 175 00

Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia

PRODUCTION (mt)

CONSUMPTION (mt)

Est TOL consumption loss from KR

Est TOL consumption loss from JPNTotal est consumption loss from NE Asia

Est TOL production loss from KR

Est TOL production loss from JPN

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016

Qty

in to

nnes

Total est consumption loss from NE Asia Total est production loss from NE AsiaSource ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45

Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance

Source ICIS

bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016

bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread

bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption

bull Improvements in TOL blend values

bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading

bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer

bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers

bull Other competitively priced blendstocks

bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL

bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China

TOL supply

TOL demand

Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors

wwwiciscom 46

Drivers of benzene trade flow

wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47

-60-40-200204060

500550600650700750800850900

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea

China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016

020000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000180000200000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Tonn

es

Others

MiddleEastThailand

Malaysia

Taiwan

Japan

SouthKorea

China imports

Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand

Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance

Strong appetite for imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48

Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

-

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

Pric

e ($

tonn

e)

Tonn

es

Shore tank inventories

E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity

2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite

Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains

Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49

-80-60-40-20020406080100

500550600650700750800850900950

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15

Tonn

es

OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea

Imports from Asia increase

Imports lower due to higher China prices

S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015

Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates

US imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50

Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600Ja

n-14

Feb-

14M

ar-1

4A

pr-1

4M

ay-1

4Ju

n-14

Jul-1

4A

ug-1

4Se

p-14

Oct

-14

Nov

-14

Dec

-14

Jan-

15Fe

b-15

Mar

-15

Apr

-15

May

-15

Jun-

15Ju

l-15

Aug

-15

Sep-

15O

ct-1

5N

ov-1

5D

ec-1

5Ja

n-16

Feb-

16M

ar-1

6A

pr-1

6

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)Naphtha-Benzene

Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene

$346t $193t $230t

wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51

S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32

Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300

SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15

YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37

2015 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25

S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25

SK Global Chem Incheon 200

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16

OthersTaiwanChinaUS

S Korea exports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52

Outlook increased supply likely to head to China

Source ICIS industry

Company Location BZ Start up period

Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016

Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16

Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos

(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul

Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16

Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16

Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16

Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017

Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex

Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017

Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017

KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017

Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017

Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726

Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322

Product Company Location Capacity(kta)

BZ usage Start up period

SM

Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16

Donghao China 300 240 May-16

Phenol

PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16

Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16

Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17

PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017

Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017

CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17

CPL

Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16

China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16

Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16

MDI

Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017

Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017

Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017

Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972

Consumption within China in 2016 637 655

wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53

Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season

S Korea 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75

BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0

S Korea 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5

KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26

S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13

BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3

Japan 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36

Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12

BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0

Japan 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23

Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24

JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24

BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17

Source ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54

BZ demandBZ supply

bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China

bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ

bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene

bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units

bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher

bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure

bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed

bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand

Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55

Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom

Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom

Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom

Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom

wwwiciscom 56

Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets

Pricing information

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wwwiciscom 57

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Page 19: Asia Olefins & Aromatics Markets –A Turning of the Tide? · PDF fileBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news, ... Saudi Arabia 1,500 350 LDPE,1,080 solution PEQ2/mid 2016

wwwiciscom 2020Source Industry

Net losses after including +70kta at Asahi-Mitsubishi JV cracker

Output losses higher than 2015 after factoring in Shellrsquos Singapore cracker outage Asahirsquos cracker closure

wwwiciscom 2121Source Industry

Japan becomes structurally tighter

wwwiciscom 2222Source Industry

S Korearsquos exports likely to stabilise at low levels of around 650kt in 2016 after falling for two years

wwwiciscom 2323

End 2015-2016 ethylene capacity expansions in AsiaMideast

Saudi+1800kta

India+3270kta

Iran+2000kta Japan

+70ktaChina+1615kta

Source Industry

Total 9015 kta

Indonesia+260kta

wwwiciscom 2424Source Industry

Cracker expansions concentrated in IndiaMideast mostly integrated

Company Location

C2 capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr) Start-up schedule

Chandra Asri Cilegon Indonesia +260 to 860 Dec 2015Asahi Kasei Mitsubishi Chemical Ethylene Corp Mizushima Japan +70 to 570 1 Apr 2016GAIL Auraiya India 450 400 PE End Feb 2016Brahmaputra Cracker and Polymer Ltd (BCPL) Lepetkata Assam India 220 220 HDPELLDPE End Q1 2016

ONGC Petro Additions (OPaL) Dahej Gujarat India 1100 340 HDPE 720HDPELLDPE Late Q2 2016

Reliance Jamnagar India 1500 750 MEG 550 LLDPE 450 LDPE End 2016

Sadara Chemical Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia 1500 350 LDPE 1080 solution PE Q2mid 2016 at earliest

Petro Rabigh Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia +300 to 1600 150 LDPEEVA 75 EPDM Apr 2016 (cracker only)

Kavian Petrochemical Bushehr Iran 1000Supply to domestic plants via west pipeline H2 20162017

Arvand Petrochemical Gachsaran Iran 1000Feeds own vinyls plants+pipeline customers H2 20162017

Total C27400

wwwiciscom 2525

Expansions in China centred on integrated coal-based projects

Source Industry

Company Location Facility

C2 capacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstreamcapacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr

Start-upschedule

Shenhua Yulin Shenmu Shaanxi MTO 300 300 PE Dec 2015Inner Mongolia ChinaCoal Mengda New Energy amp Chemical Industry

Erdos Inner Mongolia CTO 300

300HDPELLDPE Apr 2016

Shenhua Xinjiang Urumqi Xinjiang CTO 320 320 LDPE Late Q2 2016

Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Golmud Qinghai CTO 160 300 PVC Q3 2016

Fund (Changzhou) Energy amp Chemical Changzhou Jiangsu MTO 165 Q3 2016

Jiangsu Sailboat PetrochemicalLianyungang Jiangsu MTO 370

300 EVALDPE 180 EO 20 MEG Q4 2016

Total C21615 Will supply to Changzhou Dohowrsquos new 300kta SM plant

wwwiciscom 2626Source Industry

More capacity increases at crackers in NESE Asia in 2017

Company Location

C2 capacityadditions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Completion schedule

Korea Petrochemical Industry Co (KPIC)

Onsan South Korea +330 to 800 Mid 2017

Lotte Chemical TitanPasir Gudang Malaysia 90 H1 2017

CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals (CSPC)

Huizhou Guangdong China 1000

150 EO 480 EG400 HDPE 300 LLDPE 700 SM End 20172018

Total C2 1420

wwwiciscom 27Source Industry

Chinarsquos ethylene import demand in 2016 could increase to around 1550-1600kt from 2015rsquos 1516kt

wwwiciscom 2828

Arbitrage amp Mideast cargoes help offset regional supply shortfalls around 500-565kt expected in 2016

Source Industry

Saudi 170-175kt

US 130-140kt

Europe 200-250kt

Projected spot supply excludes term cargoes

wwwiciscom 29

US ethane-based derivative expansions ndash an emerging threat

wwwiciscom 30

Company LocationC2 capacity (rsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream (lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Start-up schedule

Chevron Phillips ChemicalCedar Bayou Texas 1500

500 Bimodal HDPE 500 mLLDPE at Sweeny Mid 2017

Dow Chemical Freeport Texas 1500400 ELITE PE 350 LDPE 320 elastomers 200 EPDM H1 2017

ExxonMobil Chemical Baytown Texas 1500650x2 mLLDPE plus LLDPE at Mont Belvieu H2 2017

Formosa PlasticsPoint Comfort Texas 1590

525 PE unspec 6255 LDPE1000 MEG 20172018

Occidental ChemicalMexichem Ingleside Texas 544 Feed into existing 1050 VCM Q1 2017

SasolLake Charles Louisiana 1500

450 LDPE 450 LLDPE 300EOEG 300 ethoxylatesdetergent alcohols 2018

Total C28134 Total PE 51005

2017-2018 US ethylene amp derivatives projects country to become major PE exporter

Source ICIS Chemical Business

wwwiciscom 31

Chinarsquos PE deficit to continue

wwwiciscom 32wwwiciscom 32

Asia ethylene market to remain tight in 2016

Low-cost US PE exports likely to begin in late 2017 operations of naphtha-based integrated producers in Asia may be impacted

Conclusion

wwwiciscom 33

Asiarsquos toluene and benzene trade flows

wwwiciscom 34

Drivers of Asiarsquos toluene trade flow

wwwiciscom 35wwwiciscom 35

Asiarsquos TOL prices still tracks PX but relationship may weaken on narrower TDP spreads wider toluene-naphtha gap

0

50

100

150

200

250

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

160002

-Jan

-201

422

-Jan

-201

412

-Feb

-201

404

-Mar

-201

424

-Mar

-201

411

-Apr

-201

401

-May

-201

421

-May

-201

410

-Jun

-201

430

-Jun

-201

418

-Jul

-201

407

-Aug

-201

427

-Aug

-201

416

-Sep

-201

406

-Oct

-201

424

-Oct

-201

413

-Nov

-201

403

-Dec

-201

423

-Dec

-201

421

-Jan

-201

510

-Feb

-201

504

-Mar

-201

524

-Mar

-201

513

-Apr

-201

504

-May

-201

522

-May

-201

511

-Jun

-201

501

-Jul

-201

521

-Jul

-201

511

-Aug

-201

531

-Aug

-201

518

-Sep

-201

508

-Oct

-201

528

-Oct

-201

517

-Nov

-201

507

-Dec

-201

504

-Jan

-201

622

-Jan

-201

615

-Feb

-201

604

-Mar

-201

624

-Mar

-201

6

TDP spread (U

SDtonne)

USD

tonn

e

TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Toluene FOB K PX CFR CN

CF 094

CF 095

CF = correlation factor

CF 092

CF= 093

Healthy margins prevailed in 2014 supporting the closer relationship between PX and TOL prices

Margins turned largely negative in 2015 weakening the relationship slightly Strong blend value (BV) of TOL had larger impact on prices

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 36wwwiciscom 36

Wider toluene-naphtha spread since end-2015 increased toluene selling impetus instead of downstream usage allocation

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400Price spread (U

SDtonne)

USD

tonn

e

Toluene-Naphtha spread Naphtha CFR Japan Toluene FOB South Korea

Heavy speculation low Chinese + Indian inventory healthy PX spread led to widened spread in Q1 2016

Price increases supported by start-up of UAC higher usage of TOL for TDP units in addition to summer blending season

Breakeven level

Ave = 230Ave = 170Ave = 170

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 37wwwiciscom 37

TOL heavily placed in blending pool in 2015 capping op rates of downstream TDPs 2016 situation may be reversed

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

USD

tonn

e

Toluene blend value Toluene FOB Korea prices

95-TOL CF= 090

Strong TOL BV in H1 of 2014 results in the price support from gasoline blending strengthening relationship between the two

FOB K prices consistently higher than BV difficult to find demand from blending pool

95-TOL CF= 06895-TOL CF= 090

TOL BV surpasses TOL FOB K making it possible to be placed into blending pool for most of 2015

CF = correlation factorSource ICIS

wwwiciscom 38wwwiciscom 38

Chinese inventories have heavy influence on buying interest Q1 shortage supported sellersrsquo decision to offload more TOL

Ave = 103kt Ave = 903kt Ave = 89kt

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

USD

tonne0

00 to

nnes

east China south China CFR China price Import parity price of CNY cargoes

Strong demand from gasoline blending sector and cargo delays result in 3-year low inventories

Period of strong demand

Previously overbought slow offtake after LNY

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 39

S Korearsquos importexport position for TOL dependent on TDP spreads switch in production strategies in Q1 2016

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

50

100

150

200

25003

-Jan

-201

424

-Jan

-201

414

-Feb

-201

407

-Mar

-201

428

-Mar

-201

418

-Apr

-201

409

-May

-201

430

-May

-201

420

-Jun

-201

411

-Jul

-201

401

-Aug

-201

422

-Aug

-201

412

-Sep

-201

403

-Oct

-201

424

-Oct

-201

414

-Nov

-201

405

-Dec

-201

426

-Dec

-201

423

-Jan

-201

513

-Feb

-201

506

-Mar

-201

527

-Mar

-201

517

-Apr

-201

508

-May

-201

529

-May

-201

519

-Jun

-201

510

-Jul

-201

531

-Jul

-201

521

-Aug

-201

511

-Sep

-201

502

-Oct

-201

523

-Oct

-201

513

-Nov

-201

504

-Dec

-201

525

-Dec

-201

522

-Jan

-201

612

-Feb

-201

604

-Mar

-201

625

-Mar

-201

615

-Apr

-201

6

Qty in lsquo000 tonnes

USD

tonn

e

TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Exports from S Korea Imports to S Korea

Start up of UACrsquos TDP

Slight strategy switch as low Chinese inventories strong naphtha-TOL spread since Q1 leads to stronger TOL selling interest

Overall drop in TDP spreads from mid-2014 results in selling interest switch to net exporter

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 40

Heavier downstream unit turnarounds and production adjustments led to more S Korea-origin exports

H1 2015 H1 2016

0

20

40

60

80

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Qty

in 0

00 to

nnes

South Korea exports

China Taiwan Vietnam US Japan Singapore India Others

Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 13 00Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 00 00 18 00Hyundai Cosmo TDP Daesan 00 00 00 50 200 00S Oil No 2 TDP Onsan 00 00 00 200 00 00

00 00 00 250 231 00Producer LocationLG Chem Daesan 00 00 23 23 00 00YNCC No 1 Yeosu 00 00 00 00 50 50Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 00 00 00 08 63 00Lotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 23 00 00S Oil No 2 Onsan 00 00 124 267 00 00SKGC Incheon 67 00 00 00 00 00

67 00 147 321 113 50

Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)

Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)

Source ICIS

Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 00 87Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 27 00 00 00OCI TDI Kunsan 00 06 00 00 00 00GSCX STDP Yeosu 00 00 00 583 82 00Hanwha Total TDP Daesan 00 00 222 278 00 00SKGC TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 00 49 208LG H D A Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38

38 45 288 899 169 333Producer Location Hanwha Total Daesan 00 00 153 191 00 00GSCX Yeosu 00 00 00 174 49 00Lotte Chem Yeosu 00 00 00 47 16 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 00 78 333YNCC Yeosu 00 00 33 17 00 00

00 00 186 428 143 333

Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)

Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)

wwwiciscom 41wwwiciscom 41

NE Asia and SE Asia exports to China rise since H2 2015 on healthy netbacks strong demand

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

USD

tonne

Qty

in 0

00 to

nnes

Others

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea

Import parity of domesticcargoesFOB South Korea prices

Increase in selling to China because of healthy netbacks weak TDP spread

Narrow gap results in fewer imports in line with FOB K price support from PX

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 42wwwiciscom 42

Exports from Asia to US market sporadic highly dependent on price gap gasoline blending season and Asia demand

0

10

20

30

40

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250Q

ty in 000 tonnesU

SDto

nne

Price gap (Asia prompt vs US forward) Exports from Asia to US

Open arbitrage opportunities result in increase of Asia exports

Consistent upward trend leads to selling interest

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 43wwwiciscom 43

India TOL imports mainly from SE Asia and Iran

46

23

17

37

4

2014

Singapore Thailand Iran S Korea Europe Others

2015

50

24

9

37

7

Source customs data

Total= 288kt Total= 288kt

wwwiciscom 44wwwiciscom 44

NE Asia TOL supply could outstrip demand in H2 2016 on heavier downstream turnarounds permanent shutdowns

H2 2015 H2 2016

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S Oil Onsan old TDP Onsan 00 42 42 00 00 00

00 42 42 00 00 00FCFC Aroma 2 TDP Mailiao 67 200 00 00 00 00

67 200 00 00 00 00JX Nippon Oil TDP Mizushima A 00 00 75 75 00 00

00 00 75 75 00 0067 242 117 75 00 00

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecLotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 73 25 00KPIC Ulsan 00 00 00 83 00 00S Oil No 1 Onsan 00 146 146 00 00 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 167 333 00OCI Yeosu 00 00 00 33 00 00

00 146 146 357 358 00Mitsui Chemicals Chiba 00 00 00 83 83 00JX Nippon Oil Mizushima A 00 00 117 233 00 00Tonen General Wakayama 00 00 00 69 92 00

00 00 117 385 175 00FCFC Aroma No 2 Mailiao 83 250 00 00 00 00CPC No 6 Kaohsiung 40 00 20 80 20 00CPC No3 Kaoshiung 00 00 00 00 83 55

123 250 20 80 103 55123 396 283 822 636 55

Est TOL consumption loss from KR

Est TOL consumption loss from TW

Est TOL production loss from KR

Total est consumption loss from NE Asia

Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia

CONSUMPTION (mt)

PRODUCTION (mt)

Est TOL consumption loss from JPN

Est TOL production loss from JPN

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUlsan Aromatics Center TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 1000 500 00SKGC TDP Incheon 00 00 00 83 42 00LG Chem H D A (shut since Jan) Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38

38 38 38 1122 580 38Taiyo Oil TDP cut rate only Kikuma 42 07 00 00 00 00MSNC TDI (shut since April) Omuta 65 65 65 65 65 65

107 72 65 65 65 65145 110 103 1187 645 103

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSKGC Incheon 00 00 00 133 67 00

00 00 00 133 67 00Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 00 00 108 108 00 00JFEC Chiba 00 00 14 42 00 00

00 00 122 150 00 00CPC No 7 Kaohsiung 00 00 00 27 108 00CPC No 3 Kaohsiung 110 00 00 00 00 00

110 00 00 27 108 00110 00 122 310 175 00

Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia

PRODUCTION (mt)

CONSUMPTION (mt)

Est TOL consumption loss from KR

Est TOL consumption loss from JPNTotal est consumption loss from NE Asia

Est TOL production loss from KR

Est TOL production loss from JPN

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016

Qty

in to

nnes

Total est consumption loss from NE Asia Total est production loss from NE AsiaSource ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45

Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance

Source ICIS

bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016

bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread

bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption

bull Improvements in TOL blend values

bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading

bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer

bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers

bull Other competitively priced blendstocks

bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL

bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China

TOL supply

TOL demand

Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors

wwwiciscom 46

Drivers of benzene trade flow

wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47

-60-40-200204060

500550600650700750800850900

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea

China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016

020000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000180000200000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Tonn

es

Others

MiddleEastThailand

Malaysia

Taiwan

Japan

SouthKorea

China imports

Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand

Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance

Strong appetite for imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48

Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

-

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

Pric

e ($

tonn

e)

Tonn

es

Shore tank inventories

E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity

2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite

Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains

Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49

-80-60-40-20020406080100

500550600650700750800850900950

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15

Tonn

es

OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea

Imports from Asia increase

Imports lower due to higher China prices

S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015

Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates

US imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50

Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600Ja

n-14

Feb-

14M

ar-1

4A

pr-1

4M

ay-1

4Ju

n-14

Jul-1

4A

ug-1

4Se

p-14

Oct

-14

Nov

-14

Dec

-14

Jan-

15Fe

b-15

Mar

-15

Apr

-15

May

-15

Jun-

15Ju

l-15

Aug

-15

Sep-

15O

ct-1

5N

ov-1

5D

ec-1

5Ja

n-16

Feb-

16M

ar-1

6A

pr-1

6

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)Naphtha-Benzene

Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene

$346t $193t $230t

wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51

S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32

Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300

SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15

YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37

2015 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25

S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25

SK Global Chem Incheon 200

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16

OthersTaiwanChinaUS

S Korea exports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52

Outlook increased supply likely to head to China

Source ICIS industry

Company Location BZ Start up period

Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016

Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16

Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos

(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul

Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16

Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16

Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16

Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017

Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex

Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017

Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017

KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017

Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017

Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726

Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322

Product Company Location Capacity(kta)

BZ usage Start up period

SM

Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16

Donghao China 300 240 May-16

Phenol

PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16

Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16

Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17

PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017

Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017

CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17

CPL

Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16

China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16

Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16

MDI

Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017

Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017

Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017

Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972

Consumption within China in 2016 637 655

wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53

Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season

S Korea 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75

BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0

S Korea 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5

KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26

S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13

BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3

Japan 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36

Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12

BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0

Japan 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23

Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24

JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24

BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17

Source ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54

BZ demandBZ supply

bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China

bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ

bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene

bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units

bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher

bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure

bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed

bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand

Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55

Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom

Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom

Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom

Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom

wwwiciscom 56

Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets

Pricing information

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We produce reliable price assessments and analyses covering Asian aromatics and olefins markets including price histories and a 12-month rolling price forecast enabling you to understand price drivers and settle your contract prices more confidently Our pricing coverage includes

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wwwiciscom 57

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Page 20: Asia Olefins & Aromatics Markets –A Turning of the Tide? · PDF fileBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news, ... Saudi Arabia 1,500 350 LDPE,1,080 solution PEQ2/mid 2016

wwwiciscom 2121Source Industry

Japan becomes structurally tighter

wwwiciscom 2222Source Industry

S Korearsquos exports likely to stabilise at low levels of around 650kt in 2016 after falling for two years

wwwiciscom 2323

End 2015-2016 ethylene capacity expansions in AsiaMideast

Saudi+1800kta

India+3270kta

Iran+2000kta Japan

+70ktaChina+1615kta

Source Industry

Total 9015 kta

Indonesia+260kta

wwwiciscom 2424Source Industry

Cracker expansions concentrated in IndiaMideast mostly integrated

Company Location

C2 capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr) Start-up schedule

Chandra Asri Cilegon Indonesia +260 to 860 Dec 2015Asahi Kasei Mitsubishi Chemical Ethylene Corp Mizushima Japan +70 to 570 1 Apr 2016GAIL Auraiya India 450 400 PE End Feb 2016Brahmaputra Cracker and Polymer Ltd (BCPL) Lepetkata Assam India 220 220 HDPELLDPE End Q1 2016

ONGC Petro Additions (OPaL) Dahej Gujarat India 1100 340 HDPE 720HDPELLDPE Late Q2 2016

Reliance Jamnagar India 1500 750 MEG 550 LLDPE 450 LDPE End 2016

Sadara Chemical Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia 1500 350 LDPE 1080 solution PE Q2mid 2016 at earliest

Petro Rabigh Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia +300 to 1600 150 LDPEEVA 75 EPDM Apr 2016 (cracker only)

Kavian Petrochemical Bushehr Iran 1000Supply to domestic plants via west pipeline H2 20162017

Arvand Petrochemical Gachsaran Iran 1000Feeds own vinyls plants+pipeline customers H2 20162017

Total C27400

wwwiciscom 2525

Expansions in China centred on integrated coal-based projects

Source Industry

Company Location Facility

C2 capacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstreamcapacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr

Start-upschedule

Shenhua Yulin Shenmu Shaanxi MTO 300 300 PE Dec 2015Inner Mongolia ChinaCoal Mengda New Energy amp Chemical Industry

Erdos Inner Mongolia CTO 300

300HDPELLDPE Apr 2016

Shenhua Xinjiang Urumqi Xinjiang CTO 320 320 LDPE Late Q2 2016

Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Golmud Qinghai CTO 160 300 PVC Q3 2016

Fund (Changzhou) Energy amp Chemical Changzhou Jiangsu MTO 165 Q3 2016

Jiangsu Sailboat PetrochemicalLianyungang Jiangsu MTO 370

300 EVALDPE 180 EO 20 MEG Q4 2016

Total C21615 Will supply to Changzhou Dohowrsquos new 300kta SM plant

wwwiciscom 2626Source Industry

More capacity increases at crackers in NESE Asia in 2017

Company Location

C2 capacityadditions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Completion schedule

Korea Petrochemical Industry Co (KPIC)

Onsan South Korea +330 to 800 Mid 2017

Lotte Chemical TitanPasir Gudang Malaysia 90 H1 2017

CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals (CSPC)

Huizhou Guangdong China 1000

150 EO 480 EG400 HDPE 300 LLDPE 700 SM End 20172018

Total C2 1420

wwwiciscom 27Source Industry

Chinarsquos ethylene import demand in 2016 could increase to around 1550-1600kt from 2015rsquos 1516kt

wwwiciscom 2828

Arbitrage amp Mideast cargoes help offset regional supply shortfalls around 500-565kt expected in 2016

Source Industry

Saudi 170-175kt

US 130-140kt

Europe 200-250kt

Projected spot supply excludes term cargoes

wwwiciscom 29

US ethane-based derivative expansions ndash an emerging threat

wwwiciscom 30

Company LocationC2 capacity (rsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream (lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Start-up schedule

Chevron Phillips ChemicalCedar Bayou Texas 1500

500 Bimodal HDPE 500 mLLDPE at Sweeny Mid 2017

Dow Chemical Freeport Texas 1500400 ELITE PE 350 LDPE 320 elastomers 200 EPDM H1 2017

ExxonMobil Chemical Baytown Texas 1500650x2 mLLDPE plus LLDPE at Mont Belvieu H2 2017

Formosa PlasticsPoint Comfort Texas 1590

525 PE unspec 6255 LDPE1000 MEG 20172018

Occidental ChemicalMexichem Ingleside Texas 544 Feed into existing 1050 VCM Q1 2017

SasolLake Charles Louisiana 1500

450 LDPE 450 LLDPE 300EOEG 300 ethoxylatesdetergent alcohols 2018

Total C28134 Total PE 51005

2017-2018 US ethylene amp derivatives projects country to become major PE exporter

Source ICIS Chemical Business

wwwiciscom 31

Chinarsquos PE deficit to continue

wwwiciscom 32wwwiciscom 32

Asia ethylene market to remain tight in 2016

Low-cost US PE exports likely to begin in late 2017 operations of naphtha-based integrated producers in Asia may be impacted

Conclusion

wwwiciscom 33

Asiarsquos toluene and benzene trade flows

wwwiciscom 34

Drivers of Asiarsquos toluene trade flow

wwwiciscom 35wwwiciscom 35

Asiarsquos TOL prices still tracks PX but relationship may weaken on narrower TDP spreads wider toluene-naphtha gap

0

50

100

150

200

250

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

160002

-Jan

-201

422

-Jan

-201

412

-Feb

-201

404

-Mar

-201

424

-Mar

-201

411

-Apr

-201

401

-May

-201

421

-May

-201

410

-Jun

-201

430

-Jun

-201

418

-Jul

-201

407

-Aug

-201

427

-Aug

-201

416

-Sep

-201

406

-Oct

-201

424

-Oct

-201

413

-Nov

-201

403

-Dec

-201

423

-Dec

-201

421

-Jan

-201

510

-Feb

-201

504

-Mar

-201

524

-Mar

-201

513

-Apr

-201

504

-May

-201

522

-May

-201

511

-Jun

-201

501

-Jul

-201

521

-Jul

-201

511

-Aug

-201

531

-Aug

-201

518

-Sep

-201

508

-Oct

-201

528

-Oct

-201

517

-Nov

-201

507

-Dec

-201

504

-Jan

-201

622

-Jan

-201

615

-Feb

-201

604

-Mar

-201

624

-Mar

-201

6

TDP spread (U

SDtonne)

USD

tonn

e

TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Toluene FOB K PX CFR CN

CF 094

CF 095

CF = correlation factor

CF 092

CF= 093

Healthy margins prevailed in 2014 supporting the closer relationship between PX and TOL prices

Margins turned largely negative in 2015 weakening the relationship slightly Strong blend value (BV) of TOL had larger impact on prices

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 36wwwiciscom 36

Wider toluene-naphtha spread since end-2015 increased toluene selling impetus instead of downstream usage allocation

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400Price spread (U

SDtonne)

USD

tonn

e

Toluene-Naphtha spread Naphtha CFR Japan Toluene FOB South Korea

Heavy speculation low Chinese + Indian inventory healthy PX spread led to widened spread in Q1 2016

Price increases supported by start-up of UAC higher usage of TOL for TDP units in addition to summer blending season

Breakeven level

Ave = 230Ave = 170Ave = 170

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 37wwwiciscom 37

TOL heavily placed in blending pool in 2015 capping op rates of downstream TDPs 2016 situation may be reversed

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

USD

tonn

e

Toluene blend value Toluene FOB Korea prices

95-TOL CF= 090

Strong TOL BV in H1 of 2014 results in the price support from gasoline blending strengthening relationship between the two

FOB K prices consistently higher than BV difficult to find demand from blending pool

95-TOL CF= 06895-TOL CF= 090

TOL BV surpasses TOL FOB K making it possible to be placed into blending pool for most of 2015

CF = correlation factorSource ICIS

wwwiciscom 38wwwiciscom 38

Chinese inventories have heavy influence on buying interest Q1 shortage supported sellersrsquo decision to offload more TOL

Ave = 103kt Ave = 903kt Ave = 89kt

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

USD

tonne0

00 to

nnes

east China south China CFR China price Import parity price of CNY cargoes

Strong demand from gasoline blending sector and cargo delays result in 3-year low inventories

Period of strong demand

Previously overbought slow offtake after LNY

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 39

S Korearsquos importexport position for TOL dependent on TDP spreads switch in production strategies in Q1 2016

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

50

100

150

200

25003

-Jan

-201

424

-Jan

-201

414

-Feb

-201

407

-Mar

-201

428

-Mar

-201

418

-Apr

-201

409

-May

-201

430

-May

-201

420

-Jun

-201

411

-Jul

-201

401

-Aug

-201

422

-Aug

-201

412

-Sep

-201

403

-Oct

-201

424

-Oct

-201

414

-Nov

-201

405

-Dec

-201

426

-Dec

-201

423

-Jan

-201

513

-Feb

-201

506

-Mar

-201

527

-Mar

-201

517

-Apr

-201

508

-May

-201

529

-May

-201

519

-Jun

-201

510

-Jul

-201

531

-Jul

-201

521

-Aug

-201

511

-Sep

-201

502

-Oct

-201

523

-Oct

-201

513

-Nov

-201

504

-Dec

-201

525

-Dec

-201

522

-Jan

-201

612

-Feb

-201

604

-Mar

-201

625

-Mar

-201

615

-Apr

-201

6

Qty in lsquo000 tonnes

USD

tonn

e

TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Exports from S Korea Imports to S Korea

Start up of UACrsquos TDP

Slight strategy switch as low Chinese inventories strong naphtha-TOL spread since Q1 leads to stronger TOL selling interest

Overall drop in TDP spreads from mid-2014 results in selling interest switch to net exporter

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 40

Heavier downstream unit turnarounds and production adjustments led to more S Korea-origin exports

H1 2015 H1 2016

0

20

40

60

80

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Qty

in 0

00 to

nnes

South Korea exports

China Taiwan Vietnam US Japan Singapore India Others

Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 13 00Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 00 00 18 00Hyundai Cosmo TDP Daesan 00 00 00 50 200 00S Oil No 2 TDP Onsan 00 00 00 200 00 00

00 00 00 250 231 00Producer LocationLG Chem Daesan 00 00 23 23 00 00YNCC No 1 Yeosu 00 00 00 00 50 50Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 00 00 00 08 63 00Lotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 23 00 00S Oil No 2 Onsan 00 00 124 267 00 00SKGC Incheon 67 00 00 00 00 00

67 00 147 321 113 50

Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)

Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)

Source ICIS

Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 00 87Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 27 00 00 00OCI TDI Kunsan 00 06 00 00 00 00GSCX STDP Yeosu 00 00 00 583 82 00Hanwha Total TDP Daesan 00 00 222 278 00 00SKGC TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 00 49 208LG H D A Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38

38 45 288 899 169 333Producer Location Hanwha Total Daesan 00 00 153 191 00 00GSCX Yeosu 00 00 00 174 49 00Lotte Chem Yeosu 00 00 00 47 16 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 00 78 333YNCC Yeosu 00 00 33 17 00 00

00 00 186 428 143 333

Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)

Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)

wwwiciscom 41wwwiciscom 41

NE Asia and SE Asia exports to China rise since H2 2015 on healthy netbacks strong demand

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

USD

tonne

Qty

in 0

00 to

nnes

Others

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea

Import parity of domesticcargoesFOB South Korea prices

Increase in selling to China because of healthy netbacks weak TDP spread

Narrow gap results in fewer imports in line with FOB K price support from PX

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 42wwwiciscom 42

Exports from Asia to US market sporadic highly dependent on price gap gasoline blending season and Asia demand

0

10

20

30

40

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250Q

ty in 000 tonnesU

SDto

nne

Price gap (Asia prompt vs US forward) Exports from Asia to US

Open arbitrage opportunities result in increase of Asia exports

Consistent upward trend leads to selling interest

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 43wwwiciscom 43

India TOL imports mainly from SE Asia and Iran

46

23

17

37

4

2014

Singapore Thailand Iran S Korea Europe Others

2015

50

24

9

37

7

Source customs data

Total= 288kt Total= 288kt

wwwiciscom 44wwwiciscom 44

NE Asia TOL supply could outstrip demand in H2 2016 on heavier downstream turnarounds permanent shutdowns

H2 2015 H2 2016

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S Oil Onsan old TDP Onsan 00 42 42 00 00 00

00 42 42 00 00 00FCFC Aroma 2 TDP Mailiao 67 200 00 00 00 00

67 200 00 00 00 00JX Nippon Oil TDP Mizushima A 00 00 75 75 00 00

00 00 75 75 00 0067 242 117 75 00 00

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecLotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 73 25 00KPIC Ulsan 00 00 00 83 00 00S Oil No 1 Onsan 00 146 146 00 00 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 167 333 00OCI Yeosu 00 00 00 33 00 00

00 146 146 357 358 00Mitsui Chemicals Chiba 00 00 00 83 83 00JX Nippon Oil Mizushima A 00 00 117 233 00 00Tonen General Wakayama 00 00 00 69 92 00

00 00 117 385 175 00FCFC Aroma No 2 Mailiao 83 250 00 00 00 00CPC No 6 Kaohsiung 40 00 20 80 20 00CPC No3 Kaoshiung 00 00 00 00 83 55

123 250 20 80 103 55123 396 283 822 636 55

Est TOL consumption loss from KR

Est TOL consumption loss from TW

Est TOL production loss from KR

Total est consumption loss from NE Asia

Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia

CONSUMPTION (mt)

PRODUCTION (mt)

Est TOL consumption loss from JPN

Est TOL production loss from JPN

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUlsan Aromatics Center TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 1000 500 00SKGC TDP Incheon 00 00 00 83 42 00LG Chem H D A (shut since Jan) Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38

38 38 38 1122 580 38Taiyo Oil TDP cut rate only Kikuma 42 07 00 00 00 00MSNC TDI (shut since April) Omuta 65 65 65 65 65 65

107 72 65 65 65 65145 110 103 1187 645 103

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSKGC Incheon 00 00 00 133 67 00

00 00 00 133 67 00Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 00 00 108 108 00 00JFEC Chiba 00 00 14 42 00 00

00 00 122 150 00 00CPC No 7 Kaohsiung 00 00 00 27 108 00CPC No 3 Kaohsiung 110 00 00 00 00 00

110 00 00 27 108 00110 00 122 310 175 00

Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia

PRODUCTION (mt)

CONSUMPTION (mt)

Est TOL consumption loss from KR

Est TOL consumption loss from JPNTotal est consumption loss from NE Asia

Est TOL production loss from KR

Est TOL production loss from JPN

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016

Qty

in to

nnes

Total est consumption loss from NE Asia Total est production loss from NE AsiaSource ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45

Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance

Source ICIS

bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016

bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread

bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption

bull Improvements in TOL blend values

bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading

bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer

bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers

bull Other competitively priced blendstocks

bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL

bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China

TOL supply

TOL demand

Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors

wwwiciscom 46

Drivers of benzene trade flow

wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47

-60-40-200204060

500550600650700750800850900

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea

China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016

020000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000180000200000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Tonn

es

Others

MiddleEastThailand

Malaysia

Taiwan

Japan

SouthKorea

China imports

Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand

Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance

Strong appetite for imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48

Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

-

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

Pric

e ($

tonn

e)

Tonn

es

Shore tank inventories

E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity

2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite

Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains

Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49

-80-60-40-20020406080100

500550600650700750800850900950

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15

Tonn

es

OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea

Imports from Asia increase

Imports lower due to higher China prices

S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015

Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates

US imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50

Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600Ja

n-14

Feb-

14M

ar-1

4A

pr-1

4M

ay-1

4Ju

n-14

Jul-1

4A

ug-1

4Se

p-14

Oct

-14

Nov

-14

Dec

-14

Jan-

15Fe

b-15

Mar

-15

Apr

-15

May

-15

Jun-

15Ju

l-15

Aug

-15

Sep-

15O

ct-1

5N

ov-1

5D

ec-1

5Ja

n-16

Feb-

16M

ar-1

6A

pr-1

6

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)Naphtha-Benzene

Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene

$346t $193t $230t

wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51

S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32

Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300

SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15

YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37

2015 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25

S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25

SK Global Chem Incheon 200

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16

OthersTaiwanChinaUS

S Korea exports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52

Outlook increased supply likely to head to China

Source ICIS industry

Company Location BZ Start up period

Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016

Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16

Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos

(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul

Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16

Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16

Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16

Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017

Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex

Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017

Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017

KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017

Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017

Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726

Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322

Product Company Location Capacity(kta)

BZ usage Start up period

SM

Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16

Donghao China 300 240 May-16

Phenol

PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16

Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16

Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17

PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017

Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017

CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17

CPL

Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16

China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16

Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16

MDI

Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017

Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017

Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017

Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972

Consumption within China in 2016 637 655

wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53

Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season

S Korea 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75

BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0

S Korea 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5

KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26

S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13

BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3

Japan 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36

Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12

BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0

Japan 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23

Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24

JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24

BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17

Source ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54

BZ demandBZ supply

bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China

bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ

bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene

bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units

bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher

bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure

bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed

bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand

Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55

Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom

Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom

Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom

Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom

wwwiciscom 56

Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets

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wwwiciscom 57

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Page 21: Asia Olefins & Aromatics Markets –A Turning of the Tide? · PDF fileBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news, ... Saudi Arabia 1,500 350 LDPE,1,080 solution PEQ2/mid 2016

wwwiciscom 2222Source Industry

S Korearsquos exports likely to stabilise at low levels of around 650kt in 2016 after falling for two years

wwwiciscom 2323

End 2015-2016 ethylene capacity expansions in AsiaMideast

Saudi+1800kta

India+3270kta

Iran+2000kta Japan

+70ktaChina+1615kta

Source Industry

Total 9015 kta

Indonesia+260kta

wwwiciscom 2424Source Industry

Cracker expansions concentrated in IndiaMideast mostly integrated

Company Location

C2 capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr) Start-up schedule

Chandra Asri Cilegon Indonesia +260 to 860 Dec 2015Asahi Kasei Mitsubishi Chemical Ethylene Corp Mizushima Japan +70 to 570 1 Apr 2016GAIL Auraiya India 450 400 PE End Feb 2016Brahmaputra Cracker and Polymer Ltd (BCPL) Lepetkata Assam India 220 220 HDPELLDPE End Q1 2016

ONGC Petro Additions (OPaL) Dahej Gujarat India 1100 340 HDPE 720HDPELLDPE Late Q2 2016

Reliance Jamnagar India 1500 750 MEG 550 LLDPE 450 LDPE End 2016

Sadara Chemical Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia 1500 350 LDPE 1080 solution PE Q2mid 2016 at earliest

Petro Rabigh Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia +300 to 1600 150 LDPEEVA 75 EPDM Apr 2016 (cracker only)

Kavian Petrochemical Bushehr Iran 1000Supply to domestic plants via west pipeline H2 20162017

Arvand Petrochemical Gachsaran Iran 1000Feeds own vinyls plants+pipeline customers H2 20162017

Total C27400

wwwiciscom 2525

Expansions in China centred on integrated coal-based projects

Source Industry

Company Location Facility

C2 capacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstreamcapacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr

Start-upschedule

Shenhua Yulin Shenmu Shaanxi MTO 300 300 PE Dec 2015Inner Mongolia ChinaCoal Mengda New Energy amp Chemical Industry

Erdos Inner Mongolia CTO 300

300HDPELLDPE Apr 2016

Shenhua Xinjiang Urumqi Xinjiang CTO 320 320 LDPE Late Q2 2016

Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Golmud Qinghai CTO 160 300 PVC Q3 2016

Fund (Changzhou) Energy amp Chemical Changzhou Jiangsu MTO 165 Q3 2016

Jiangsu Sailboat PetrochemicalLianyungang Jiangsu MTO 370

300 EVALDPE 180 EO 20 MEG Q4 2016

Total C21615 Will supply to Changzhou Dohowrsquos new 300kta SM plant

wwwiciscom 2626Source Industry

More capacity increases at crackers in NESE Asia in 2017

Company Location

C2 capacityadditions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Completion schedule

Korea Petrochemical Industry Co (KPIC)

Onsan South Korea +330 to 800 Mid 2017

Lotte Chemical TitanPasir Gudang Malaysia 90 H1 2017

CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals (CSPC)

Huizhou Guangdong China 1000

150 EO 480 EG400 HDPE 300 LLDPE 700 SM End 20172018

Total C2 1420

wwwiciscom 27Source Industry

Chinarsquos ethylene import demand in 2016 could increase to around 1550-1600kt from 2015rsquos 1516kt

wwwiciscom 2828

Arbitrage amp Mideast cargoes help offset regional supply shortfalls around 500-565kt expected in 2016

Source Industry

Saudi 170-175kt

US 130-140kt

Europe 200-250kt

Projected spot supply excludes term cargoes

wwwiciscom 29

US ethane-based derivative expansions ndash an emerging threat

wwwiciscom 30

Company LocationC2 capacity (rsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream (lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Start-up schedule

Chevron Phillips ChemicalCedar Bayou Texas 1500

500 Bimodal HDPE 500 mLLDPE at Sweeny Mid 2017

Dow Chemical Freeport Texas 1500400 ELITE PE 350 LDPE 320 elastomers 200 EPDM H1 2017

ExxonMobil Chemical Baytown Texas 1500650x2 mLLDPE plus LLDPE at Mont Belvieu H2 2017

Formosa PlasticsPoint Comfort Texas 1590

525 PE unspec 6255 LDPE1000 MEG 20172018

Occidental ChemicalMexichem Ingleside Texas 544 Feed into existing 1050 VCM Q1 2017

SasolLake Charles Louisiana 1500

450 LDPE 450 LLDPE 300EOEG 300 ethoxylatesdetergent alcohols 2018

Total C28134 Total PE 51005

2017-2018 US ethylene amp derivatives projects country to become major PE exporter

Source ICIS Chemical Business

wwwiciscom 31

Chinarsquos PE deficit to continue

wwwiciscom 32wwwiciscom 32

Asia ethylene market to remain tight in 2016

Low-cost US PE exports likely to begin in late 2017 operations of naphtha-based integrated producers in Asia may be impacted

Conclusion

wwwiciscom 33

Asiarsquos toluene and benzene trade flows

wwwiciscom 34

Drivers of Asiarsquos toluene trade flow

wwwiciscom 35wwwiciscom 35

Asiarsquos TOL prices still tracks PX but relationship may weaken on narrower TDP spreads wider toluene-naphtha gap

0

50

100

150

200

250

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

160002

-Jan

-201

422

-Jan

-201

412

-Feb

-201

404

-Mar

-201

424

-Mar

-201

411

-Apr

-201

401

-May

-201

421

-May

-201

410

-Jun

-201

430

-Jun

-201

418

-Jul

-201

407

-Aug

-201

427

-Aug

-201

416

-Sep

-201

406

-Oct

-201

424

-Oct

-201

413

-Nov

-201

403

-Dec

-201

423

-Dec

-201

421

-Jan

-201

510

-Feb

-201

504

-Mar

-201

524

-Mar

-201

513

-Apr

-201

504

-May

-201

522

-May

-201

511

-Jun

-201

501

-Jul

-201

521

-Jul

-201

511

-Aug

-201

531

-Aug

-201

518

-Sep

-201

508

-Oct

-201

528

-Oct

-201

517

-Nov

-201

507

-Dec

-201

504

-Jan

-201

622

-Jan

-201

615

-Feb

-201

604

-Mar

-201

624

-Mar

-201

6

TDP spread (U

SDtonne)

USD

tonn

e

TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Toluene FOB K PX CFR CN

CF 094

CF 095

CF = correlation factor

CF 092

CF= 093

Healthy margins prevailed in 2014 supporting the closer relationship between PX and TOL prices

Margins turned largely negative in 2015 weakening the relationship slightly Strong blend value (BV) of TOL had larger impact on prices

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 36wwwiciscom 36

Wider toluene-naphtha spread since end-2015 increased toluene selling impetus instead of downstream usage allocation

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400Price spread (U

SDtonne)

USD

tonn

e

Toluene-Naphtha spread Naphtha CFR Japan Toluene FOB South Korea

Heavy speculation low Chinese + Indian inventory healthy PX spread led to widened spread in Q1 2016

Price increases supported by start-up of UAC higher usage of TOL for TDP units in addition to summer blending season

Breakeven level

Ave = 230Ave = 170Ave = 170

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 37wwwiciscom 37

TOL heavily placed in blending pool in 2015 capping op rates of downstream TDPs 2016 situation may be reversed

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

USD

tonn

e

Toluene blend value Toluene FOB Korea prices

95-TOL CF= 090

Strong TOL BV in H1 of 2014 results in the price support from gasoline blending strengthening relationship between the two

FOB K prices consistently higher than BV difficult to find demand from blending pool

95-TOL CF= 06895-TOL CF= 090

TOL BV surpasses TOL FOB K making it possible to be placed into blending pool for most of 2015

CF = correlation factorSource ICIS

wwwiciscom 38wwwiciscom 38

Chinese inventories have heavy influence on buying interest Q1 shortage supported sellersrsquo decision to offload more TOL

Ave = 103kt Ave = 903kt Ave = 89kt

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

USD

tonne0

00 to

nnes

east China south China CFR China price Import parity price of CNY cargoes

Strong demand from gasoline blending sector and cargo delays result in 3-year low inventories

Period of strong demand

Previously overbought slow offtake after LNY

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 39

S Korearsquos importexport position for TOL dependent on TDP spreads switch in production strategies in Q1 2016

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

50

100

150

200

25003

-Jan

-201

424

-Jan

-201

414

-Feb

-201

407

-Mar

-201

428

-Mar

-201

418

-Apr

-201

409

-May

-201

430

-May

-201

420

-Jun

-201

411

-Jul

-201

401

-Aug

-201

422

-Aug

-201

412

-Sep

-201

403

-Oct

-201

424

-Oct

-201

414

-Nov

-201

405

-Dec

-201

426

-Dec

-201

423

-Jan

-201

513

-Feb

-201

506

-Mar

-201

527

-Mar

-201

517

-Apr

-201

508

-May

-201

529

-May

-201

519

-Jun

-201

510

-Jul

-201

531

-Jul

-201

521

-Aug

-201

511

-Sep

-201

502

-Oct

-201

523

-Oct

-201

513

-Nov

-201

504

-Dec

-201

525

-Dec

-201

522

-Jan

-201

612

-Feb

-201

604

-Mar

-201

625

-Mar

-201

615

-Apr

-201

6

Qty in lsquo000 tonnes

USD

tonn

e

TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Exports from S Korea Imports to S Korea

Start up of UACrsquos TDP

Slight strategy switch as low Chinese inventories strong naphtha-TOL spread since Q1 leads to stronger TOL selling interest

Overall drop in TDP spreads from mid-2014 results in selling interest switch to net exporter

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 40

Heavier downstream unit turnarounds and production adjustments led to more S Korea-origin exports

H1 2015 H1 2016

0

20

40

60

80

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Qty

in 0

00 to

nnes

South Korea exports

China Taiwan Vietnam US Japan Singapore India Others

Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 13 00Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 00 00 18 00Hyundai Cosmo TDP Daesan 00 00 00 50 200 00S Oil No 2 TDP Onsan 00 00 00 200 00 00

00 00 00 250 231 00Producer LocationLG Chem Daesan 00 00 23 23 00 00YNCC No 1 Yeosu 00 00 00 00 50 50Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 00 00 00 08 63 00Lotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 23 00 00S Oil No 2 Onsan 00 00 124 267 00 00SKGC Incheon 67 00 00 00 00 00

67 00 147 321 113 50

Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)

Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)

Source ICIS

Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 00 87Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 27 00 00 00OCI TDI Kunsan 00 06 00 00 00 00GSCX STDP Yeosu 00 00 00 583 82 00Hanwha Total TDP Daesan 00 00 222 278 00 00SKGC TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 00 49 208LG H D A Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38

38 45 288 899 169 333Producer Location Hanwha Total Daesan 00 00 153 191 00 00GSCX Yeosu 00 00 00 174 49 00Lotte Chem Yeosu 00 00 00 47 16 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 00 78 333YNCC Yeosu 00 00 33 17 00 00

00 00 186 428 143 333

Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)

Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)

wwwiciscom 41wwwiciscom 41

NE Asia and SE Asia exports to China rise since H2 2015 on healthy netbacks strong demand

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

USD

tonne

Qty

in 0

00 to

nnes

Others

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea

Import parity of domesticcargoesFOB South Korea prices

Increase in selling to China because of healthy netbacks weak TDP spread

Narrow gap results in fewer imports in line with FOB K price support from PX

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 42wwwiciscom 42

Exports from Asia to US market sporadic highly dependent on price gap gasoline blending season and Asia demand

0

10

20

30

40

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250Q

ty in 000 tonnesU

SDto

nne

Price gap (Asia prompt vs US forward) Exports from Asia to US

Open arbitrage opportunities result in increase of Asia exports

Consistent upward trend leads to selling interest

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 43wwwiciscom 43

India TOL imports mainly from SE Asia and Iran

46

23

17

37

4

2014

Singapore Thailand Iran S Korea Europe Others

2015

50

24

9

37

7

Source customs data

Total= 288kt Total= 288kt

wwwiciscom 44wwwiciscom 44

NE Asia TOL supply could outstrip demand in H2 2016 on heavier downstream turnarounds permanent shutdowns

H2 2015 H2 2016

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S Oil Onsan old TDP Onsan 00 42 42 00 00 00

00 42 42 00 00 00FCFC Aroma 2 TDP Mailiao 67 200 00 00 00 00

67 200 00 00 00 00JX Nippon Oil TDP Mizushima A 00 00 75 75 00 00

00 00 75 75 00 0067 242 117 75 00 00

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecLotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 73 25 00KPIC Ulsan 00 00 00 83 00 00S Oil No 1 Onsan 00 146 146 00 00 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 167 333 00OCI Yeosu 00 00 00 33 00 00

00 146 146 357 358 00Mitsui Chemicals Chiba 00 00 00 83 83 00JX Nippon Oil Mizushima A 00 00 117 233 00 00Tonen General Wakayama 00 00 00 69 92 00

00 00 117 385 175 00FCFC Aroma No 2 Mailiao 83 250 00 00 00 00CPC No 6 Kaohsiung 40 00 20 80 20 00CPC No3 Kaoshiung 00 00 00 00 83 55

123 250 20 80 103 55123 396 283 822 636 55

Est TOL consumption loss from KR

Est TOL consumption loss from TW

Est TOL production loss from KR

Total est consumption loss from NE Asia

Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia

CONSUMPTION (mt)

PRODUCTION (mt)

Est TOL consumption loss from JPN

Est TOL production loss from JPN

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUlsan Aromatics Center TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 1000 500 00SKGC TDP Incheon 00 00 00 83 42 00LG Chem H D A (shut since Jan) Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38

38 38 38 1122 580 38Taiyo Oil TDP cut rate only Kikuma 42 07 00 00 00 00MSNC TDI (shut since April) Omuta 65 65 65 65 65 65

107 72 65 65 65 65145 110 103 1187 645 103

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSKGC Incheon 00 00 00 133 67 00

00 00 00 133 67 00Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 00 00 108 108 00 00JFEC Chiba 00 00 14 42 00 00

00 00 122 150 00 00CPC No 7 Kaohsiung 00 00 00 27 108 00CPC No 3 Kaohsiung 110 00 00 00 00 00

110 00 00 27 108 00110 00 122 310 175 00

Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia

PRODUCTION (mt)

CONSUMPTION (mt)

Est TOL consumption loss from KR

Est TOL consumption loss from JPNTotal est consumption loss from NE Asia

Est TOL production loss from KR

Est TOL production loss from JPN

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016

Qty

in to

nnes

Total est consumption loss from NE Asia Total est production loss from NE AsiaSource ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45

Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance

Source ICIS

bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016

bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread

bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption

bull Improvements in TOL blend values

bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading

bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer

bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers

bull Other competitively priced blendstocks

bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL

bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China

TOL supply

TOL demand

Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors

wwwiciscom 46

Drivers of benzene trade flow

wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47

-60-40-200204060

500550600650700750800850900

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea

China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016

020000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000180000200000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Tonn

es

Others

MiddleEastThailand

Malaysia

Taiwan

Japan

SouthKorea

China imports

Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand

Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance

Strong appetite for imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48

Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

-

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

Pric

e ($

tonn

e)

Tonn

es

Shore tank inventories

E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity

2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite

Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains

Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49

-80-60-40-20020406080100

500550600650700750800850900950

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15

Tonn

es

OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea

Imports from Asia increase

Imports lower due to higher China prices

S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015

Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates

US imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50

Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600Ja

n-14

Feb-

14M

ar-1

4A

pr-1

4M

ay-1

4Ju

n-14

Jul-1

4A

ug-1

4Se

p-14

Oct

-14

Nov

-14

Dec

-14

Jan-

15Fe

b-15

Mar

-15

Apr

-15

May

-15

Jun-

15Ju

l-15

Aug

-15

Sep-

15O

ct-1

5N

ov-1

5D

ec-1

5Ja

n-16

Feb-

16M

ar-1

6A

pr-1

6

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)Naphtha-Benzene

Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene

$346t $193t $230t

wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51

S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32

Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300

SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15

YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37

2015 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25

S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25

SK Global Chem Incheon 200

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16

OthersTaiwanChinaUS

S Korea exports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52

Outlook increased supply likely to head to China

Source ICIS industry

Company Location BZ Start up period

Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016

Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16

Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos

(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul

Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16

Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16

Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16

Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017

Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex

Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017

Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017

KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017

Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017

Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726

Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322

Product Company Location Capacity(kta)

BZ usage Start up period

SM

Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16

Donghao China 300 240 May-16

Phenol

PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16

Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16

Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17

PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017

Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017

CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17

CPL

Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16

China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16

Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16

MDI

Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017

Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017

Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017

Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972

Consumption within China in 2016 637 655

wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53

Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season

S Korea 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75

BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0

S Korea 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5

KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26

S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13

BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3

Japan 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36

Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12

BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0

Japan 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23

Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24

JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24

BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17

Source ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54

BZ demandBZ supply

bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China

bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ

bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene

bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units

bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher

bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure

bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed

bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand

Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55

Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom

Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom

Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom

Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom

wwwiciscom 56

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wwwiciscom 57

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Page 22: Asia Olefins & Aromatics Markets –A Turning of the Tide? · PDF fileBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news, ... Saudi Arabia 1,500 350 LDPE,1,080 solution PEQ2/mid 2016

wwwiciscom 2323

End 2015-2016 ethylene capacity expansions in AsiaMideast

Saudi+1800kta

India+3270kta

Iran+2000kta Japan

+70ktaChina+1615kta

Source Industry

Total 9015 kta

Indonesia+260kta

wwwiciscom 2424Source Industry

Cracker expansions concentrated in IndiaMideast mostly integrated

Company Location

C2 capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr) Start-up schedule

Chandra Asri Cilegon Indonesia +260 to 860 Dec 2015Asahi Kasei Mitsubishi Chemical Ethylene Corp Mizushima Japan +70 to 570 1 Apr 2016GAIL Auraiya India 450 400 PE End Feb 2016Brahmaputra Cracker and Polymer Ltd (BCPL) Lepetkata Assam India 220 220 HDPELLDPE End Q1 2016

ONGC Petro Additions (OPaL) Dahej Gujarat India 1100 340 HDPE 720HDPELLDPE Late Q2 2016

Reliance Jamnagar India 1500 750 MEG 550 LLDPE 450 LDPE End 2016

Sadara Chemical Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia 1500 350 LDPE 1080 solution PE Q2mid 2016 at earliest

Petro Rabigh Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia +300 to 1600 150 LDPEEVA 75 EPDM Apr 2016 (cracker only)

Kavian Petrochemical Bushehr Iran 1000Supply to domestic plants via west pipeline H2 20162017

Arvand Petrochemical Gachsaran Iran 1000Feeds own vinyls plants+pipeline customers H2 20162017

Total C27400

wwwiciscom 2525

Expansions in China centred on integrated coal-based projects

Source Industry

Company Location Facility

C2 capacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstreamcapacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr

Start-upschedule

Shenhua Yulin Shenmu Shaanxi MTO 300 300 PE Dec 2015Inner Mongolia ChinaCoal Mengda New Energy amp Chemical Industry

Erdos Inner Mongolia CTO 300

300HDPELLDPE Apr 2016

Shenhua Xinjiang Urumqi Xinjiang CTO 320 320 LDPE Late Q2 2016

Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Golmud Qinghai CTO 160 300 PVC Q3 2016

Fund (Changzhou) Energy amp Chemical Changzhou Jiangsu MTO 165 Q3 2016

Jiangsu Sailboat PetrochemicalLianyungang Jiangsu MTO 370

300 EVALDPE 180 EO 20 MEG Q4 2016

Total C21615 Will supply to Changzhou Dohowrsquos new 300kta SM plant

wwwiciscom 2626Source Industry

More capacity increases at crackers in NESE Asia in 2017

Company Location

C2 capacityadditions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Completion schedule

Korea Petrochemical Industry Co (KPIC)

Onsan South Korea +330 to 800 Mid 2017

Lotte Chemical TitanPasir Gudang Malaysia 90 H1 2017

CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals (CSPC)

Huizhou Guangdong China 1000

150 EO 480 EG400 HDPE 300 LLDPE 700 SM End 20172018

Total C2 1420

wwwiciscom 27Source Industry

Chinarsquos ethylene import demand in 2016 could increase to around 1550-1600kt from 2015rsquos 1516kt

wwwiciscom 2828

Arbitrage amp Mideast cargoes help offset regional supply shortfalls around 500-565kt expected in 2016

Source Industry

Saudi 170-175kt

US 130-140kt

Europe 200-250kt

Projected spot supply excludes term cargoes

wwwiciscom 29

US ethane-based derivative expansions ndash an emerging threat

wwwiciscom 30

Company LocationC2 capacity (rsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream (lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Start-up schedule

Chevron Phillips ChemicalCedar Bayou Texas 1500

500 Bimodal HDPE 500 mLLDPE at Sweeny Mid 2017

Dow Chemical Freeport Texas 1500400 ELITE PE 350 LDPE 320 elastomers 200 EPDM H1 2017

ExxonMobil Chemical Baytown Texas 1500650x2 mLLDPE plus LLDPE at Mont Belvieu H2 2017

Formosa PlasticsPoint Comfort Texas 1590

525 PE unspec 6255 LDPE1000 MEG 20172018

Occidental ChemicalMexichem Ingleside Texas 544 Feed into existing 1050 VCM Q1 2017

SasolLake Charles Louisiana 1500

450 LDPE 450 LLDPE 300EOEG 300 ethoxylatesdetergent alcohols 2018

Total C28134 Total PE 51005

2017-2018 US ethylene amp derivatives projects country to become major PE exporter

Source ICIS Chemical Business

wwwiciscom 31

Chinarsquos PE deficit to continue

wwwiciscom 32wwwiciscom 32

Asia ethylene market to remain tight in 2016

Low-cost US PE exports likely to begin in late 2017 operations of naphtha-based integrated producers in Asia may be impacted

Conclusion

wwwiciscom 33

Asiarsquos toluene and benzene trade flows

wwwiciscom 34

Drivers of Asiarsquos toluene trade flow

wwwiciscom 35wwwiciscom 35

Asiarsquos TOL prices still tracks PX but relationship may weaken on narrower TDP spreads wider toluene-naphtha gap

0

50

100

150

200

250

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

160002

-Jan

-201

422

-Jan

-201

412

-Feb

-201

404

-Mar

-201

424

-Mar

-201

411

-Apr

-201

401

-May

-201

421

-May

-201

410

-Jun

-201

430

-Jun

-201

418

-Jul

-201

407

-Aug

-201

427

-Aug

-201

416

-Sep

-201

406

-Oct

-201

424

-Oct

-201

413

-Nov

-201

403

-Dec

-201

423

-Dec

-201

421

-Jan

-201

510

-Feb

-201

504

-Mar

-201

524

-Mar

-201

513

-Apr

-201

504

-May

-201

522

-May

-201

511

-Jun

-201

501

-Jul

-201

521

-Jul

-201

511

-Aug

-201

531

-Aug

-201

518

-Sep

-201

508

-Oct

-201

528

-Oct

-201

517

-Nov

-201

507

-Dec

-201

504

-Jan

-201

622

-Jan

-201

615

-Feb

-201

604

-Mar

-201

624

-Mar

-201

6

TDP spread (U

SDtonne)

USD

tonn

e

TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Toluene FOB K PX CFR CN

CF 094

CF 095

CF = correlation factor

CF 092

CF= 093

Healthy margins prevailed in 2014 supporting the closer relationship between PX and TOL prices

Margins turned largely negative in 2015 weakening the relationship slightly Strong blend value (BV) of TOL had larger impact on prices

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 36wwwiciscom 36

Wider toluene-naphtha spread since end-2015 increased toluene selling impetus instead of downstream usage allocation

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400Price spread (U

SDtonne)

USD

tonn

e

Toluene-Naphtha spread Naphtha CFR Japan Toluene FOB South Korea

Heavy speculation low Chinese + Indian inventory healthy PX spread led to widened spread in Q1 2016

Price increases supported by start-up of UAC higher usage of TOL for TDP units in addition to summer blending season

Breakeven level

Ave = 230Ave = 170Ave = 170

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 37wwwiciscom 37

TOL heavily placed in blending pool in 2015 capping op rates of downstream TDPs 2016 situation may be reversed

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

USD

tonn

e

Toluene blend value Toluene FOB Korea prices

95-TOL CF= 090

Strong TOL BV in H1 of 2014 results in the price support from gasoline blending strengthening relationship between the two

FOB K prices consistently higher than BV difficult to find demand from blending pool

95-TOL CF= 06895-TOL CF= 090

TOL BV surpasses TOL FOB K making it possible to be placed into blending pool for most of 2015

CF = correlation factorSource ICIS

wwwiciscom 38wwwiciscom 38

Chinese inventories have heavy influence on buying interest Q1 shortage supported sellersrsquo decision to offload more TOL

Ave = 103kt Ave = 903kt Ave = 89kt

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

USD

tonne0

00 to

nnes

east China south China CFR China price Import parity price of CNY cargoes

Strong demand from gasoline blending sector and cargo delays result in 3-year low inventories

Period of strong demand

Previously overbought slow offtake after LNY

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 39

S Korearsquos importexport position for TOL dependent on TDP spreads switch in production strategies in Q1 2016

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

50

100

150

200

25003

-Jan

-201

424

-Jan

-201

414

-Feb

-201

407

-Mar

-201

428

-Mar

-201

418

-Apr

-201

409

-May

-201

430

-May

-201

420

-Jun

-201

411

-Jul

-201

401

-Aug

-201

422

-Aug

-201

412

-Sep

-201

403

-Oct

-201

424

-Oct

-201

414

-Nov

-201

405

-Dec

-201

426

-Dec

-201

423

-Jan

-201

513

-Feb

-201

506

-Mar

-201

527

-Mar

-201

517

-Apr

-201

508

-May

-201

529

-May

-201

519

-Jun

-201

510

-Jul

-201

531

-Jul

-201

521

-Aug

-201

511

-Sep

-201

502

-Oct

-201

523

-Oct

-201

513

-Nov

-201

504

-Dec

-201

525

-Dec

-201

522

-Jan

-201

612

-Feb

-201

604

-Mar

-201

625

-Mar

-201

615

-Apr

-201

6

Qty in lsquo000 tonnes

USD

tonn

e

TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Exports from S Korea Imports to S Korea

Start up of UACrsquos TDP

Slight strategy switch as low Chinese inventories strong naphtha-TOL spread since Q1 leads to stronger TOL selling interest

Overall drop in TDP spreads from mid-2014 results in selling interest switch to net exporter

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 40

Heavier downstream unit turnarounds and production adjustments led to more S Korea-origin exports

H1 2015 H1 2016

0

20

40

60

80

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Qty

in 0

00 to

nnes

South Korea exports

China Taiwan Vietnam US Japan Singapore India Others

Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 13 00Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 00 00 18 00Hyundai Cosmo TDP Daesan 00 00 00 50 200 00S Oil No 2 TDP Onsan 00 00 00 200 00 00

00 00 00 250 231 00Producer LocationLG Chem Daesan 00 00 23 23 00 00YNCC No 1 Yeosu 00 00 00 00 50 50Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 00 00 00 08 63 00Lotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 23 00 00S Oil No 2 Onsan 00 00 124 267 00 00SKGC Incheon 67 00 00 00 00 00

67 00 147 321 113 50

Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)

Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)

Source ICIS

Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 00 87Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 27 00 00 00OCI TDI Kunsan 00 06 00 00 00 00GSCX STDP Yeosu 00 00 00 583 82 00Hanwha Total TDP Daesan 00 00 222 278 00 00SKGC TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 00 49 208LG H D A Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38

38 45 288 899 169 333Producer Location Hanwha Total Daesan 00 00 153 191 00 00GSCX Yeosu 00 00 00 174 49 00Lotte Chem Yeosu 00 00 00 47 16 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 00 78 333YNCC Yeosu 00 00 33 17 00 00

00 00 186 428 143 333

Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)

Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)

wwwiciscom 41wwwiciscom 41

NE Asia and SE Asia exports to China rise since H2 2015 on healthy netbacks strong demand

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

USD

tonne

Qty

in 0

00 to

nnes

Others

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea

Import parity of domesticcargoesFOB South Korea prices

Increase in selling to China because of healthy netbacks weak TDP spread

Narrow gap results in fewer imports in line with FOB K price support from PX

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 42wwwiciscom 42

Exports from Asia to US market sporadic highly dependent on price gap gasoline blending season and Asia demand

0

10

20

30

40

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250Q

ty in 000 tonnesU

SDto

nne

Price gap (Asia prompt vs US forward) Exports from Asia to US

Open arbitrage opportunities result in increase of Asia exports

Consistent upward trend leads to selling interest

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 43wwwiciscom 43

India TOL imports mainly from SE Asia and Iran

46

23

17

37

4

2014

Singapore Thailand Iran S Korea Europe Others

2015

50

24

9

37

7

Source customs data

Total= 288kt Total= 288kt

wwwiciscom 44wwwiciscom 44

NE Asia TOL supply could outstrip demand in H2 2016 on heavier downstream turnarounds permanent shutdowns

H2 2015 H2 2016

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S Oil Onsan old TDP Onsan 00 42 42 00 00 00

00 42 42 00 00 00FCFC Aroma 2 TDP Mailiao 67 200 00 00 00 00

67 200 00 00 00 00JX Nippon Oil TDP Mizushima A 00 00 75 75 00 00

00 00 75 75 00 0067 242 117 75 00 00

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecLotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 73 25 00KPIC Ulsan 00 00 00 83 00 00S Oil No 1 Onsan 00 146 146 00 00 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 167 333 00OCI Yeosu 00 00 00 33 00 00

00 146 146 357 358 00Mitsui Chemicals Chiba 00 00 00 83 83 00JX Nippon Oil Mizushima A 00 00 117 233 00 00Tonen General Wakayama 00 00 00 69 92 00

00 00 117 385 175 00FCFC Aroma No 2 Mailiao 83 250 00 00 00 00CPC No 6 Kaohsiung 40 00 20 80 20 00CPC No3 Kaoshiung 00 00 00 00 83 55

123 250 20 80 103 55123 396 283 822 636 55

Est TOL consumption loss from KR

Est TOL consumption loss from TW

Est TOL production loss from KR

Total est consumption loss from NE Asia

Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia

CONSUMPTION (mt)

PRODUCTION (mt)

Est TOL consumption loss from JPN

Est TOL production loss from JPN

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUlsan Aromatics Center TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 1000 500 00SKGC TDP Incheon 00 00 00 83 42 00LG Chem H D A (shut since Jan) Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38

38 38 38 1122 580 38Taiyo Oil TDP cut rate only Kikuma 42 07 00 00 00 00MSNC TDI (shut since April) Omuta 65 65 65 65 65 65

107 72 65 65 65 65145 110 103 1187 645 103

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSKGC Incheon 00 00 00 133 67 00

00 00 00 133 67 00Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 00 00 108 108 00 00JFEC Chiba 00 00 14 42 00 00

00 00 122 150 00 00CPC No 7 Kaohsiung 00 00 00 27 108 00CPC No 3 Kaohsiung 110 00 00 00 00 00

110 00 00 27 108 00110 00 122 310 175 00

Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia

PRODUCTION (mt)

CONSUMPTION (mt)

Est TOL consumption loss from KR

Est TOL consumption loss from JPNTotal est consumption loss from NE Asia

Est TOL production loss from KR

Est TOL production loss from JPN

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016

Qty

in to

nnes

Total est consumption loss from NE Asia Total est production loss from NE AsiaSource ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45

Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance

Source ICIS

bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016

bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread

bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption

bull Improvements in TOL blend values

bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading

bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer

bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers

bull Other competitively priced blendstocks

bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL

bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China

TOL supply

TOL demand

Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors

wwwiciscom 46

Drivers of benzene trade flow

wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47

-60-40-200204060

500550600650700750800850900

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea

China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016

020000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000180000200000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Tonn

es

Others

MiddleEastThailand

Malaysia

Taiwan

Japan

SouthKorea

China imports

Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand

Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance

Strong appetite for imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48

Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

-

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

Pric

e ($

tonn

e)

Tonn

es

Shore tank inventories

E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity

2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite

Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains

Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49

-80-60-40-20020406080100

500550600650700750800850900950

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15

Tonn

es

OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea

Imports from Asia increase

Imports lower due to higher China prices

S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015

Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates

US imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50

Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600Ja

n-14

Feb-

14M

ar-1

4A

pr-1

4M

ay-1

4Ju

n-14

Jul-1

4A

ug-1

4Se

p-14

Oct

-14

Nov

-14

Dec

-14

Jan-

15Fe

b-15

Mar

-15

Apr

-15

May

-15

Jun-

15Ju

l-15

Aug

-15

Sep-

15O

ct-1

5N

ov-1

5D

ec-1

5Ja

n-16

Feb-

16M

ar-1

6A

pr-1

6

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)Naphtha-Benzene

Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene

$346t $193t $230t

wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51

S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32

Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300

SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15

YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37

2015 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25

S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25

SK Global Chem Incheon 200

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16

OthersTaiwanChinaUS

S Korea exports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52

Outlook increased supply likely to head to China

Source ICIS industry

Company Location BZ Start up period

Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016

Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16

Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos

(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul

Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16

Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16

Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16

Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017

Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex

Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017

Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017

KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017

Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017

Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726

Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322

Product Company Location Capacity(kta)

BZ usage Start up period

SM

Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16

Donghao China 300 240 May-16

Phenol

PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16

Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16

Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17

PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017

Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017

CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17

CPL

Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16

China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16

Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16

MDI

Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017

Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017

Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017

Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972

Consumption within China in 2016 637 655

wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53

Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season

S Korea 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75

BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0

S Korea 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5

KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26

S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13

BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3

Japan 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36

Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12

BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0

Japan 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23

Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24

JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24

BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17

Source ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54

BZ demandBZ supply

bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China

bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ

bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene

bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units

bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher

bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure

bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed

bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand

Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55

Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom

Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom

Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom

Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom

wwwiciscom 56

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wwwiciscom 57

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Page 23: Asia Olefins & Aromatics Markets –A Turning of the Tide? · PDF fileBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news, ... Saudi Arabia 1,500 350 LDPE,1,080 solution PEQ2/mid 2016

wwwiciscom 2424Source Industry

Cracker expansions concentrated in IndiaMideast mostly integrated

Company Location

C2 capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr) Start-up schedule

Chandra Asri Cilegon Indonesia +260 to 860 Dec 2015Asahi Kasei Mitsubishi Chemical Ethylene Corp Mizushima Japan +70 to 570 1 Apr 2016GAIL Auraiya India 450 400 PE End Feb 2016Brahmaputra Cracker and Polymer Ltd (BCPL) Lepetkata Assam India 220 220 HDPELLDPE End Q1 2016

ONGC Petro Additions (OPaL) Dahej Gujarat India 1100 340 HDPE 720HDPELLDPE Late Q2 2016

Reliance Jamnagar India 1500 750 MEG 550 LLDPE 450 LDPE End 2016

Sadara Chemical Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia 1500 350 LDPE 1080 solution PE Q2mid 2016 at earliest

Petro Rabigh Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia +300 to 1600 150 LDPEEVA 75 EPDM Apr 2016 (cracker only)

Kavian Petrochemical Bushehr Iran 1000Supply to domestic plants via west pipeline H2 20162017

Arvand Petrochemical Gachsaran Iran 1000Feeds own vinyls plants+pipeline customers H2 20162017

Total C27400

wwwiciscom 2525

Expansions in China centred on integrated coal-based projects

Source Industry

Company Location Facility

C2 capacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstreamcapacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr

Start-upschedule

Shenhua Yulin Shenmu Shaanxi MTO 300 300 PE Dec 2015Inner Mongolia ChinaCoal Mengda New Energy amp Chemical Industry

Erdos Inner Mongolia CTO 300

300HDPELLDPE Apr 2016

Shenhua Xinjiang Urumqi Xinjiang CTO 320 320 LDPE Late Q2 2016

Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Golmud Qinghai CTO 160 300 PVC Q3 2016

Fund (Changzhou) Energy amp Chemical Changzhou Jiangsu MTO 165 Q3 2016

Jiangsu Sailboat PetrochemicalLianyungang Jiangsu MTO 370

300 EVALDPE 180 EO 20 MEG Q4 2016

Total C21615 Will supply to Changzhou Dohowrsquos new 300kta SM plant

wwwiciscom 2626Source Industry

More capacity increases at crackers in NESE Asia in 2017

Company Location

C2 capacityadditions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Completion schedule

Korea Petrochemical Industry Co (KPIC)

Onsan South Korea +330 to 800 Mid 2017

Lotte Chemical TitanPasir Gudang Malaysia 90 H1 2017

CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals (CSPC)

Huizhou Guangdong China 1000

150 EO 480 EG400 HDPE 300 LLDPE 700 SM End 20172018

Total C2 1420

wwwiciscom 27Source Industry

Chinarsquos ethylene import demand in 2016 could increase to around 1550-1600kt from 2015rsquos 1516kt

wwwiciscom 2828

Arbitrage amp Mideast cargoes help offset regional supply shortfalls around 500-565kt expected in 2016

Source Industry

Saudi 170-175kt

US 130-140kt

Europe 200-250kt

Projected spot supply excludes term cargoes

wwwiciscom 29

US ethane-based derivative expansions ndash an emerging threat

wwwiciscom 30

Company LocationC2 capacity (rsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream (lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Start-up schedule

Chevron Phillips ChemicalCedar Bayou Texas 1500

500 Bimodal HDPE 500 mLLDPE at Sweeny Mid 2017

Dow Chemical Freeport Texas 1500400 ELITE PE 350 LDPE 320 elastomers 200 EPDM H1 2017

ExxonMobil Chemical Baytown Texas 1500650x2 mLLDPE plus LLDPE at Mont Belvieu H2 2017

Formosa PlasticsPoint Comfort Texas 1590

525 PE unspec 6255 LDPE1000 MEG 20172018

Occidental ChemicalMexichem Ingleside Texas 544 Feed into existing 1050 VCM Q1 2017

SasolLake Charles Louisiana 1500

450 LDPE 450 LLDPE 300EOEG 300 ethoxylatesdetergent alcohols 2018

Total C28134 Total PE 51005

2017-2018 US ethylene amp derivatives projects country to become major PE exporter

Source ICIS Chemical Business

wwwiciscom 31

Chinarsquos PE deficit to continue

wwwiciscom 32wwwiciscom 32

Asia ethylene market to remain tight in 2016

Low-cost US PE exports likely to begin in late 2017 operations of naphtha-based integrated producers in Asia may be impacted

Conclusion

wwwiciscom 33

Asiarsquos toluene and benzene trade flows

wwwiciscom 34

Drivers of Asiarsquos toluene trade flow

wwwiciscom 35wwwiciscom 35

Asiarsquos TOL prices still tracks PX but relationship may weaken on narrower TDP spreads wider toluene-naphtha gap

0

50

100

150

200

250

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

160002

-Jan

-201

422

-Jan

-201

412

-Feb

-201

404

-Mar

-201

424

-Mar

-201

411

-Apr

-201

401

-May

-201

421

-May

-201

410

-Jun

-201

430

-Jun

-201

418

-Jul

-201

407

-Aug

-201

427

-Aug

-201

416

-Sep

-201

406

-Oct

-201

424

-Oct

-201

413

-Nov

-201

403

-Dec

-201

423

-Dec

-201

421

-Jan

-201

510

-Feb

-201

504

-Mar

-201

524

-Mar

-201

513

-Apr

-201

504

-May

-201

522

-May

-201

511

-Jun

-201

501

-Jul

-201

521

-Jul

-201

511

-Aug

-201

531

-Aug

-201

518

-Sep

-201

508

-Oct

-201

528

-Oct

-201

517

-Nov

-201

507

-Dec

-201

504

-Jan

-201

622

-Jan

-201

615

-Feb

-201

604

-Mar

-201

624

-Mar

-201

6

TDP spread (U

SDtonne)

USD

tonn

e

TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Toluene FOB K PX CFR CN

CF 094

CF 095

CF = correlation factor

CF 092

CF= 093

Healthy margins prevailed in 2014 supporting the closer relationship between PX and TOL prices

Margins turned largely negative in 2015 weakening the relationship slightly Strong blend value (BV) of TOL had larger impact on prices

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 36wwwiciscom 36

Wider toluene-naphtha spread since end-2015 increased toluene selling impetus instead of downstream usage allocation

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400Price spread (U

SDtonne)

USD

tonn

e

Toluene-Naphtha spread Naphtha CFR Japan Toluene FOB South Korea

Heavy speculation low Chinese + Indian inventory healthy PX spread led to widened spread in Q1 2016

Price increases supported by start-up of UAC higher usage of TOL for TDP units in addition to summer blending season

Breakeven level

Ave = 230Ave = 170Ave = 170

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 37wwwiciscom 37

TOL heavily placed in blending pool in 2015 capping op rates of downstream TDPs 2016 situation may be reversed

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

USD

tonn

e

Toluene blend value Toluene FOB Korea prices

95-TOL CF= 090

Strong TOL BV in H1 of 2014 results in the price support from gasoline blending strengthening relationship between the two

FOB K prices consistently higher than BV difficult to find demand from blending pool

95-TOL CF= 06895-TOL CF= 090

TOL BV surpasses TOL FOB K making it possible to be placed into blending pool for most of 2015

CF = correlation factorSource ICIS

wwwiciscom 38wwwiciscom 38

Chinese inventories have heavy influence on buying interest Q1 shortage supported sellersrsquo decision to offload more TOL

Ave = 103kt Ave = 903kt Ave = 89kt

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

USD

tonne0

00 to

nnes

east China south China CFR China price Import parity price of CNY cargoes

Strong demand from gasoline blending sector and cargo delays result in 3-year low inventories

Period of strong demand

Previously overbought slow offtake after LNY

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 39

S Korearsquos importexport position for TOL dependent on TDP spreads switch in production strategies in Q1 2016

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

50

100

150

200

25003

-Jan

-201

424

-Jan

-201

414

-Feb

-201

407

-Mar

-201

428

-Mar

-201

418

-Apr

-201

409

-May

-201

430

-May

-201

420

-Jun

-201

411

-Jul

-201

401

-Aug

-201

422

-Aug

-201

412

-Sep

-201

403

-Oct

-201

424

-Oct

-201

414

-Nov

-201

405

-Dec

-201

426

-Dec

-201

423

-Jan

-201

513

-Feb

-201

506

-Mar

-201

527

-Mar

-201

517

-Apr

-201

508

-May

-201

529

-May

-201

519

-Jun

-201

510

-Jul

-201

531

-Jul

-201

521

-Aug

-201

511

-Sep

-201

502

-Oct

-201

523

-Oct

-201

513

-Nov

-201

504

-Dec

-201

525

-Dec

-201

522

-Jan

-201

612

-Feb

-201

604

-Mar

-201

625

-Mar

-201

615

-Apr

-201

6

Qty in lsquo000 tonnes

USD

tonn

e

TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Exports from S Korea Imports to S Korea

Start up of UACrsquos TDP

Slight strategy switch as low Chinese inventories strong naphtha-TOL spread since Q1 leads to stronger TOL selling interest

Overall drop in TDP spreads from mid-2014 results in selling interest switch to net exporter

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 40

Heavier downstream unit turnarounds and production adjustments led to more S Korea-origin exports

H1 2015 H1 2016

0

20

40

60

80

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Qty

in 0

00 to

nnes

South Korea exports

China Taiwan Vietnam US Japan Singapore India Others

Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 13 00Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 00 00 18 00Hyundai Cosmo TDP Daesan 00 00 00 50 200 00S Oil No 2 TDP Onsan 00 00 00 200 00 00

00 00 00 250 231 00Producer LocationLG Chem Daesan 00 00 23 23 00 00YNCC No 1 Yeosu 00 00 00 00 50 50Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 00 00 00 08 63 00Lotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 23 00 00S Oil No 2 Onsan 00 00 124 267 00 00SKGC Incheon 67 00 00 00 00 00

67 00 147 321 113 50

Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)

Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)

Source ICIS

Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 00 87Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 27 00 00 00OCI TDI Kunsan 00 06 00 00 00 00GSCX STDP Yeosu 00 00 00 583 82 00Hanwha Total TDP Daesan 00 00 222 278 00 00SKGC TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 00 49 208LG H D A Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38

38 45 288 899 169 333Producer Location Hanwha Total Daesan 00 00 153 191 00 00GSCX Yeosu 00 00 00 174 49 00Lotte Chem Yeosu 00 00 00 47 16 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 00 78 333YNCC Yeosu 00 00 33 17 00 00

00 00 186 428 143 333

Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)

Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)

wwwiciscom 41wwwiciscom 41

NE Asia and SE Asia exports to China rise since H2 2015 on healthy netbacks strong demand

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

USD

tonne

Qty

in 0

00 to

nnes

Others

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea

Import parity of domesticcargoesFOB South Korea prices

Increase in selling to China because of healthy netbacks weak TDP spread

Narrow gap results in fewer imports in line with FOB K price support from PX

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 42wwwiciscom 42

Exports from Asia to US market sporadic highly dependent on price gap gasoline blending season and Asia demand

0

10

20

30

40

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250Q

ty in 000 tonnesU

SDto

nne

Price gap (Asia prompt vs US forward) Exports from Asia to US

Open arbitrage opportunities result in increase of Asia exports

Consistent upward trend leads to selling interest

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 43wwwiciscom 43

India TOL imports mainly from SE Asia and Iran

46

23

17

37

4

2014

Singapore Thailand Iran S Korea Europe Others

2015

50

24

9

37

7

Source customs data

Total= 288kt Total= 288kt

wwwiciscom 44wwwiciscom 44

NE Asia TOL supply could outstrip demand in H2 2016 on heavier downstream turnarounds permanent shutdowns

H2 2015 H2 2016

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S Oil Onsan old TDP Onsan 00 42 42 00 00 00

00 42 42 00 00 00FCFC Aroma 2 TDP Mailiao 67 200 00 00 00 00

67 200 00 00 00 00JX Nippon Oil TDP Mizushima A 00 00 75 75 00 00

00 00 75 75 00 0067 242 117 75 00 00

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecLotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 73 25 00KPIC Ulsan 00 00 00 83 00 00S Oil No 1 Onsan 00 146 146 00 00 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 167 333 00OCI Yeosu 00 00 00 33 00 00

00 146 146 357 358 00Mitsui Chemicals Chiba 00 00 00 83 83 00JX Nippon Oil Mizushima A 00 00 117 233 00 00Tonen General Wakayama 00 00 00 69 92 00

00 00 117 385 175 00FCFC Aroma No 2 Mailiao 83 250 00 00 00 00CPC No 6 Kaohsiung 40 00 20 80 20 00CPC No3 Kaoshiung 00 00 00 00 83 55

123 250 20 80 103 55123 396 283 822 636 55

Est TOL consumption loss from KR

Est TOL consumption loss from TW

Est TOL production loss from KR

Total est consumption loss from NE Asia

Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia

CONSUMPTION (mt)

PRODUCTION (mt)

Est TOL consumption loss from JPN

Est TOL production loss from JPN

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUlsan Aromatics Center TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 1000 500 00SKGC TDP Incheon 00 00 00 83 42 00LG Chem H D A (shut since Jan) Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38

38 38 38 1122 580 38Taiyo Oil TDP cut rate only Kikuma 42 07 00 00 00 00MSNC TDI (shut since April) Omuta 65 65 65 65 65 65

107 72 65 65 65 65145 110 103 1187 645 103

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSKGC Incheon 00 00 00 133 67 00

00 00 00 133 67 00Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 00 00 108 108 00 00JFEC Chiba 00 00 14 42 00 00

00 00 122 150 00 00CPC No 7 Kaohsiung 00 00 00 27 108 00CPC No 3 Kaohsiung 110 00 00 00 00 00

110 00 00 27 108 00110 00 122 310 175 00

Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia

PRODUCTION (mt)

CONSUMPTION (mt)

Est TOL consumption loss from KR

Est TOL consumption loss from JPNTotal est consumption loss from NE Asia

Est TOL production loss from KR

Est TOL production loss from JPN

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016

Qty

in to

nnes

Total est consumption loss from NE Asia Total est production loss from NE AsiaSource ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45

Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance

Source ICIS

bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016

bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread

bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption

bull Improvements in TOL blend values

bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading

bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer

bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers

bull Other competitively priced blendstocks

bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL

bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China

TOL supply

TOL demand

Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors

wwwiciscom 46

Drivers of benzene trade flow

wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47

-60-40-200204060

500550600650700750800850900

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea

China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016

020000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000180000200000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Tonn

es

Others

MiddleEastThailand

Malaysia

Taiwan

Japan

SouthKorea

China imports

Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand

Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance

Strong appetite for imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48

Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

-

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

Pric

e ($

tonn

e)

Tonn

es

Shore tank inventories

E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity

2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite

Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains

Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49

-80-60-40-20020406080100

500550600650700750800850900950

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15

Tonn

es

OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea

Imports from Asia increase

Imports lower due to higher China prices

S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015

Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates

US imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50

Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600Ja

n-14

Feb-

14M

ar-1

4A

pr-1

4M

ay-1

4Ju

n-14

Jul-1

4A

ug-1

4Se

p-14

Oct

-14

Nov

-14

Dec

-14

Jan-

15Fe

b-15

Mar

-15

Apr

-15

May

-15

Jun-

15Ju

l-15

Aug

-15

Sep-

15O

ct-1

5N

ov-1

5D

ec-1

5Ja

n-16

Feb-

16M

ar-1

6A

pr-1

6

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)Naphtha-Benzene

Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene

$346t $193t $230t

wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51

S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32

Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300

SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15

YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37

2015 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25

S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25

SK Global Chem Incheon 200

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16

OthersTaiwanChinaUS

S Korea exports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52

Outlook increased supply likely to head to China

Source ICIS industry

Company Location BZ Start up period

Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016

Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16

Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos

(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul

Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16

Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16

Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16

Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017

Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex

Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017

Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017

KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017

Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017

Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726

Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322

Product Company Location Capacity(kta)

BZ usage Start up period

SM

Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16

Donghao China 300 240 May-16

Phenol

PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16

Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16

Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17

PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017

Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017

CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17

CPL

Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16

China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16

Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16

MDI

Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017

Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017

Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017

Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972

Consumption within China in 2016 637 655

wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53

Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season

S Korea 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75

BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0

S Korea 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5

KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26

S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13

BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3

Japan 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36

Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12

BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0

Japan 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23

Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24

JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24

BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17

Source ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54

BZ demandBZ supply

bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China

bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ

bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene

bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units

bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher

bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure

bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed

bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand

Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55

Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom

Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom

Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom

Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom

wwwiciscom 56

Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets

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wwwiciscom 57

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Page 24: Asia Olefins & Aromatics Markets –A Turning of the Tide? · PDF fileBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news, ... Saudi Arabia 1,500 350 LDPE,1,080 solution PEQ2/mid 2016

wwwiciscom 2525

Expansions in China centred on integrated coal-based projects

Source Industry

Company Location Facility

C2 capacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstreamcapacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr

Start-upschedule

Shenhua Yulin Shenmu Shaanxi MTO 300 300 PE Dec 2015Inner Mongolia ChinaCoal Mengda New Energy amp Chemical Industry

Erdos Inner Mongolia CTO 300

300HDPELLDPE Apr 2016

Shenhua Xinjiang Urumqi Xinjiang CTO 320 320 LDPE Late Q2 2016

Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Golmud Qinghai CTO 160 300 PVC Q3 2016

Fund (Changzhou) Energy amp Chemical Changzhou Jiangsu MTO 165 Q3 2016

Jiangsu Sailboat PetrochemicalLianyungang Jiangsu MTO 370

300 EVALDPE 180 EO 20 MEG Q4 2016

Total C21615 Will supply to Changzhou Dohowrsquos new 300kta SM plant

wwwiciscom 2626Source Industry

More capacity increases at crackers in NESE Asia in 2017

Company Location

C2 capacityadditions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Completion schedule

Korea Petrochemical Industry Co (KPIC)

Onsan South Korea +330 to 800 Mid 2017

Lotte Chemical TitanPasir Gudang Malaysia 90 H1 2017

CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals (CSPC)

Huizhou Guangdong China 1000

150 EO 480 EG400 HDPE 300 LLDPE 700 SM End 20172018

Total C2 1420

wwwiciscom 27Source Industry

Chinarsquos ethylene import demand in 2016 could increase to around 1550-1600kt from 2015rsquos 1516kt

wwwiciscom 2828

Arbitrage amp Mideast cargoes help offset regional supply shortfalls around 500-565kt expected in 2016

Source Industry

Saudi 170-175kt

US 130-140kt

Europe 200-250kt

Projected spot supply excludes term cargoes

wwwiciscom 29

US ethane-based derivative expansions ndash an emerging threat

wwwiciscom 30

Company LocationC2 capacity (rsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream (lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Start-up schedule

Chevron Phillips ChemicalCedar Bayou Texas 1500

500 Bimodal HDPE 500 mLLDPE at Sweeny Mid 2017

Dow Chemical Freeport Texas 1500400 ELITE PE 350 LDPE 320 elastomers 200 EPDM H1 2017

ExxonMobil Chemical Baytown Texas 1500650x2 mLLDPE plus LLDPE at Mont Belvieu H2 2017

Formosa PlasticsPoint Comfort Texas 1590

525 PE unspec 6255 LDPE1000 MEG 20172018

Occidental ChemicalMexichem Ingleside Texas 544 Feed into existing 1050 VCM Q1 2017

SasolLake Charles Louisiana 1500

450 LDPE 450 LLDPE 300EOEG 300 ethoxylatesdetergent alcohols 2018

Total C28134 Total PE 51005

2017-2018 US ethylene amp derivatives projects country to become major PE exporter

Source ICIS Chemical Business

wwwiciscom 31

Chinarsquos PE deficit to continue

wwwiciscom 32wwwiciscom 32

Asia ethylene market to remain tight in 2016

Low-cost US PE exports likely to begin in late 2017 operations of naphtha-based integrated producers in Asia may be impacted

Conclusion

wwwiciscom 33

Asiarsquos toluene and benzene trade flows

wwwiciscom 34

Drivers of Asiarsquos toluene trade flow

wwwiciscom 35wwwiciscom 35

Asiarsquos TOL prices still tracks PX but relationship may weaken on narrower TDP spreads wider toluene-naphtha gap

0

50

100

150

200

250

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

160002

-Jan

-201

422

-Jan

-201

412

-Feb

-201

404

-Mar

-201

424

-Mar

-201

411

-Apr

-201

401

-May

-201

421

-May

-201

410

-Jun

-201

430

-Jun

-201

418

-Jul

-201

407

-Aug

-201

427

-Aug

-201

416

-Sep

-201

406

-Oct

-201

424

-Oct

-201

413

-Nov

-201

403

-Dec

-201

423

-Dec

-201

421

-Jan

-201

510

-Feb

-201

504

-Mar

-201

524

-Mar

-201

513

-Apr

-201

504

-May

-201

522

-May

-201

511

-Jun

-201

501

-Jul

-201

521

-Jul

-201

511

-Aug

-201

531

-Aug

-201

518

-Sep

-201

508

-Oct

-201

528

-Oct

-201

517

-Nov

-201

507

-Dec

-201

504

-Jan

-201

622

-Jan

-201

615

-Feb

-201

604

-Mar

-201

624

-Mar

-201

6

TDP spread (U

SDtonne)

USD

tonn

e

TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Toluene FOB K PX CFR CN

CF 094

CF 095

CF = correlation factor

CF 092

CF= 093

Healthy margins prevailed in 2014 supporting the closer relationship between PX and TOL prices

Margins turned largely negative in 2015 weakening the relationship slightly Strong blend value (BV) of TOL had larger impact on prices

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 36wwwiciscom 36

Wider toluene-naphtha spread since end-2015 increased toluene selling impetus instead of downstream usage allocation

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400Price spread (U

SDtonne)

USD

tonn

e

Toluene-Naphtha spread Naphtha CFR Japan Toluene FOB South Korea

Heavy speculation low Chinese + Indian inventory healthy PX spread led to widened spread in Q1 2016

Price increases supported by start-up of UAC higher usage of TOL for TDP units in addition to summer blending season

Breakeven level

Ave = 230Ave = 170Ave = 170

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 37wwwiciscom 37

TOL heavily placed in blending pool in 2015 capping op rates of downstream TDPs 2016 situation may be reversed

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

USD

tonn

e

Toluene blend value Toluene FOB Korea prices

95-TOL CF= 090

Strong TOL BV in H1 of 2014 results in the price support from gasoline blending strengthening relationship between the two

FOB K prices consistently higher than BV difficult to find demand from blending pool

95-TOL CF= 06895-TOL CF= 090

TOL BV surpasses TOL FOB K making it possible to be placed into blending pool for most of 2015

CF = correlation factorSource ICIS

wwwiciscom 38wwwiciscom 38

Chinese inventories have heavy influence on buying interest Q1 shortage supported sellersrsquo decision to offload more TOL

Ave = 103kt Ave = 903kt Ave = 89kt

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

USD

tonne0

00 to

nnes

east China south China CFR China price Import parity price of CNY cargoes

Strong demand from gasoline blending sector and cargo delays result in 3-year low inventories

Period of strong demand

Previously overbought slow offtake after LNY

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 39

S Korearsquos importexport position for TOL dependent on TDP spreads switch in production strategies in Q1 2016

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

50

100

150

200

25003

-Jan

-201

424

-Jan

-201

414

-Feb

-201

407

-Mar

-201

428

-Mar

-201

418

-Apr

-201

409

-May

-201

430

-May

-201

420

-Jun

-201

411

-Jul

-201

401

-Aug

-201

422

-Aug

-201

412

-Sep

-201

403

-Oct

-201

424

-Oct

-201

414

-Nov

-201

405

-Dec

-201

426

-Dec

-201

423

-Jan

-201

513

-Feb

-201

506

-Mar

-201

527

-Mar

-201

517

-Apr

-201

508

-May

-201

529

-May

-201

519

-Jun

-201

510

-Jul

-201

531

-Jul

-201

521

-Aug

-201

511

-Sep

-201

502

-Oct

-201

523

-Oct

-201

513

-Nov

-201

504

-Dec

-201

525

-Dec

-201

522

-Jan

-201

612

-Feb

-201

604

-Mar

-201

625

-Mar

-201

615

-Apr

-201

6

Qty in lsquo000 tonnes

USD

tonn

e

TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Exports from S Korea Imports to S Korea

Start up of UACrsquos TDP

Slight strategy switch as low Chinese inventories strong naphtha-TOL spread since Q1 leads to stronger TOL selling interest

Overall drop in TDP spreads from mid-2014 results in selling interest switch to net exporter

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 40

Heavier downstream unit turnarounds and production adjustments led to more S Korea-origin exports

H1 2015 H1 2016

0

20

40

60

80

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Qty

in 0

00 to

nnes

South Korea exports

China Taiwan Vietnam US Japan Singapore India Others

Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 13 00Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 00 00 18 00Hyundai Cosmo TDP Daesan 00 00 00 50 200 00S Oil No 2 TDP Onsan 00 00 00 200 00 00

00 00 00 250 231 00Producer LocationLG Chem Daesan 00 00 23 23 00 00YNCC No 1 Yeosu 00 00 00 00 50 50Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 00 00 00 08 63 00Lotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 23 00 00S Oil No 2 Onsan 00 00 124 267 00 00SKGC Incheon 67 00 00 00 00 00

67 00 147 321 113 50

Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)

Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)

Source ICIS

Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 00 87Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 27 00 00 00OCI TDI Kunsan 00 06 00 00 00 00GSCX STDP Yeosu 00 00 00 583 82 00Hanwha Total TDP Daesan 00 00 222 278 00 00SKGC TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 00 49 208LG H D A Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38

38 45 288 899 169 333Producer Location Hanwha Total Daesan 00 00 153 191 00 00GSCX Yeosu 00 00 00 174 49 00Lotte Chem Yeosu 00 00 00 47 16 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 00 78 333YNCC Yeosu 00 00 33 17 00 00

00 00 186 428 143 333

Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)

Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)

wwwiciscom 41wwwiciscom 41

NE Asia and SE Asia exports to China rise since H2 2015 on healthy netbacks strong demand

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

USD

tonne

Qty

in 0

00 to

nnes

Others

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea

Import parity of domesticcargoesFOB South Korea prices

Increase in selling to China because of healthy netbacks weak TDP spread

Narrow gap results in fewer imports in line with FOB K price support from PX

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 42wwwiciscom 42

Exports from Asia to US market sporadic highly dependent on price gap gasoline blending season and Asia demand

0

10

20

30

40

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250Q

ty in 000 tonnesU

SDto

nne

Price gap (Asia prompt vs US forward) Exports from Asia to US

Open arbitrage opportunities result in increase of Asia exports

Consistent upward trend leads to selling interest

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 43wwwiciscom 43

India TOL imports mainly from SE Asia and Iran

46

23

17

37

4

2014

Singapore Thailand Iran S Korea Europe Others

2015

50

24

9

37

7

Source customs data

Total= 288kt Total= 288kt

wwwiciscom 44wwwiciscom 44

NE Asia TOL supply could outstrip demand in H2 2016 on heavier downstream turnarounds permanent shutdowns

H2 2015 H2 2016

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S Oil Onsan old TDP Onsan 00 42 42 00 00 00

00 42 42 00 00 00FCFC Aroma 2 TDP Mailiao 67 200 00 00 00 00

67 200 00 00 00 00JX Nippon Oil TDP Mizushima A 00 00 75 75 00 00

00 00 75 75 00 0067 242 117 75 00 00

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecLotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 73 25 00KPIC Ulsan 00 00 00 83 00 00S Oil No 1 Onsan 00 146 146 00 00 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 167 333 00OCI Yeosu 00 00 00 33 00 00

00 146 146 357 358 00Mitsui Chemicals Chiba 00 00 00 83 83 00JX Nippon Oil Mizushima A 00 00 117 233 00 00Tonen General Wakayama 00 00 00 69 92 00

00 00 117 385 175 00FCFC Aroma No 2 Mailiao 83 250 00 00 00 00CPC No 6 Kaohsiung 40 00 20 80 20 00CPC No3 Kaoshiung 00 00 00 00 83 55

123 250 20 80 103 55123 396 283 822 636 55

Est TOL consumption loss from KR

Est TOL consumption loss from TW

Est TOL production loss from KR

Total est consumption loss from NE Asia

Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia

CONSUMPTION (mt)

PRODUCTION (mt)

Est TOL consumption loss from JPN

Est TOL production loss from JPN

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUlsan Aromatics Center TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 1000 500 00SKGC TDP Incheon 00 00 00 83 42 00LG Chem H D A (shut since Jan) Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38

38 38 38 1122 580 38Taiyo Oil TDP cut rate only Kikuma 42 07 00 00 00 00MSNC TDI (shut since April) Omuta 65 65 65 65 65 65

107 72 65 65 65 65145 110 103 1187 645 103

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSKGC Incheon 00 00 00 133 67 00

00 00 00 133 67 00Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 00 00 108 108 00 00JFEC Chiba 00 00 14 42 00 00

00 00 122 150 00 00CPC No 7 Kaohsiung 00 00 00 27 108 00CPC No 3 Kaohsiung 110 00 00 00 00 00

110 00 00 27 108 00110 00 122 310 175 00

Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia

PRODUCTION (mt)

CONSUMPTION (mt)

Est TOL consumption loss from KR

Est TOL consumption loss from JPNTotal est consumption loss from NE Asia

Est TOL production loss from KR

Est TOL production loss from JPN

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016

Qty

in to

nnes

Total est consumption loss from NE Asia Total est production loss from NE AsiaSource ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45

Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance

Source ICIS

bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016

bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread

bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption

bull Improvements in TOL blend values

bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading

bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer

bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers

bull Other competitively priced blendstocks

bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL

bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China

TOL supply

TOL demand

Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors

wwwiciscom 46

Drivers of benzene trade flow

wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47

-60-40-200204060

500550600650700750800850900

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea

China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016

020000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000180000200000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Tonn

es

Others

MiddleEastThailand

Malaysia

Taiwan

Japan

SouthKorea

China imports

Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand

Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance

Strong appetite for imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48

Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

-

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

Pric

e ($

tonn

e)

Tonn

es

Shore tank inventories

E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity

2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite

Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains

Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49

-80-60-40-20020406080100

500550600650700750800850900950

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15

Tonn

es

OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea

Imports from Asia increase

Imports lower due to higher China prices

S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015

Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates

US imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50

Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600Ja

n-14

Feb-

14M

ar-1

4A

pr-1

4M

ay-1

4Ju

n-14

Jul-1

4A

ug-1

4Se

p-14

Oct

-14

Nov

-14

Dec

-14

Jan-

15Fe

b-15

Mar

-15

Apr

-15

May

-15

Jun-

15Ju

l-15

Aug

-15

Sep-

15O

ct-1

5N

ov-1

5D

ec-1

5Ja

n-16

Feb-

16M

ar-1

6A

pr-1

6

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)Naphtha-Benzene

Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene

$346t $193t $230t

wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51

S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32

Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300

SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15

YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37

2015 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25

S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25

SK Global Chem Incheon 200

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16

OthersTaiwanChinaUS

S Korea exports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52

Outlook increased supply likely to head to China

Source ICIS industry

Company Location BZ Start up period

Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016

Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16

Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos

(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul

Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16

Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16

Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16

Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017

Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex

Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017

Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017

KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017

Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017

Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726

Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322

Product Company Location Capacity(kta)

BZ usage Start up period

SM

Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16

Donghao China 300 240 May-16

Phenol

PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16

Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16

Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17

PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017

Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017

CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17

CPL

Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16

China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16

Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16

MDI

Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017

Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017

Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017

Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972

Consumption within China in 2016 637 655

wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53

Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season

S Korea 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75

BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0

S Korea 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5

KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26

S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13

BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3

Japan 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36

Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12

BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0

Japan 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23

Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24

JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24

BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17

Source ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54

BZ demandBZ supply

bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China

bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ

bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene

bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units

bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher

bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure

bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed

bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand

Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55

Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom

Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom

Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom

Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom

wwwiciscom 56

Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets

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wwwiciscom 57

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Page 25: Asia Olefins & Aromatics Markets –A Turning of the Tide? · PDF fileBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news, ... Saudi Arabia 1,500 350 LDPE,1,080 solution PEQ2/mid 2016

wwwiciscom 2626Source Industry

More capacity increases at crackers in NESE Asia in 2017

Company Location

C2 capacityadditions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Completion schedule

Korea Petrochemical Industry Co (KPIC)

Onsan South Korea +330 to 800 Mid 2017

Lotte Chemical TitanPasir Gudang Malaysia 90 H1 2017

CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals (CSPC)

Huizhou Guangdong China 1000

150 EO 480 EG400 HDPE 300 LLDPE 700 SM End 20172018

Total C2 1420

wwwiciscom 27Source Industry

Chinarsquos ethylene import demand in 2016 could increase to around 1550-1600kt from 2015rsquos 1516kt

wwwiciscom 2828

Arbitrage amp Mideast cargoes help offset regional supply shortfalls around 500-565kt expected in 2016

Source Industry

Saudi 170-175kt

US 130-140kt

Europe 200-250kt

Projected spot supply excludes term cargoes

wwwiciscom 29

US ethane-based derivative expansions ndash an emerging threat

wwwiciscom 30

Company LocationC2 capacity (rsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream (lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Start-up schedule

Chevron Phillips ChemicalCedar Bayou Texas 1500

500 Bimodal HDPE 500 mLLDPE at Sweeny Mid 2017

Dow Chemical Freeport Texas 1500400 ELITE PE 350 LDPE 320 elastomers 200 EPDM H1 2017

ExxonMobil Chemical Baytown Texas 1500650x2 mLLDPE plus LLDPE at Mont Belvieu H2 2017

Formosa PlasticsPoint Comfort Texas 1590

525 PE unspec 6255 LDPE1000 MEG 20172018

Occidental ChemicalMexichem Ingleside Texas 544 Feed into existing 1050 VCM Q1 2017

SasolLake Charles Louisiana 1500

450 LDPE 450 LLDPE 300EOEG 300 ethoxylatesdetergent alcohols 2018

Total C28134 Total PE 51005

2017-2018 US ethylene amp derivatives projects country to become major PE exporter

Source ICIS Chemical Business

wwwiciscom 31

Chinarsquos PE deficit to continue

wwwiciscom 32wwwiciscom 32

Asia ethylene market to remain tight in 2016

Low-cost US PE exports likely to begin in late 2017 operations of naphtha-based integrated producers in Asia may be impacted

Conclusion

wwwiciscom 33

Asiarsquos toluene and benzene trade flows

wwwiciscom 34

Drivers of Asiarsquos toluene trade flow

wwwiciscom 35wwwiciscom 35

Asiarsquos TOL prices still tracks PX but relationship may weaken on narrower TDP spreads wider toluene-naphtha gap

0

50

100

150

200

250

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

160002

-Jan

-201

422

-Jan

-201

412

-Feb

-201

404

-Mar

-201

424

-Mar

-201

411

-Apr

-201

401

-May

-201

421

-May

-201

410

-Jun

-201

430

-Jun

-201

418

-Jul

-201

407

-Aug

-201

427

-Aug

-201

416

-Sep

-201

406

-Oct

-201

424

-Oct

-201

413

-Nov

-201

403

-Dec

-201

423

-Dec

-201

421

-Jan

-201

510

-Feb

-201

504

-Mar

-201

524

-Mar

-201

513

-Apr

-201

504

-May

-201

522

-May

-201

511

-Jun

-201

501

-Jul

-201

521

-Jul

-201

511

-Aug

-201

531

-Aug

-201

518

-Sep

-201

508

-Oct

-201

528

-Oct

-201

517

-Nov

-201

507

-Dec

-201

504

-Jan

-201

622

-Jan

-201

615

-Feb

-201

604

-Mar

-201

624

-Mar

-201

6

TDP spread (U

SDtonne)

USD

tonn

e

TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Toluene FOB K PX CFR CN

CF 094

CF 095

CF = correlation factor

CF 092

CF= 093

Healthy margins prevailed in 2014 supporting the closer relationship between PX and TOL prices

Margins turned largely negative in 2015 weakening the relationship slightly Strong blend value (BV) of TOL had larger impact on prices

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 36wwwiciscom 36

Wider toluene-naphtha spread since end-2015 increased toluene selling impetus instead of downstream usage allocation

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400Price spread (U

SDtonne)

USD

tonn

e

Toluene-Naphtha spread Naphtha CFR Japan Toluene FOB South Korea

Heavy speculation low Chinese + Indian inventory healthy PX spread led to widened spread in Q1 2016

Price increases supported by start-up of UAC higher usage of TOL for TDP units in addition to summer blending season

Breakeven level

Ave = 230Ave = 170Ave = 170

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 37wwwiciscom 37

TOL heavily placed in blending pool in 2015 capping op rates of downstream TDPs 2016 situation may be reversed

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

USD

tonn

e

Toluene blend value Toluene FOB Korea prices

95-TOL CF= 090

Strong TOL BV in H1 of 2014 results in the price support from gasoline blending strengthening relationship between the two

FOB K prices consistently higher than BV difficult to find demand from blending pool

95-TOL CF= 06895-TOL CF= 090

TOL BV surpasses TOL FOB K making it possible to be placed into blending pool for most of 2015

CF = correlation factorSource ICIS

wwwiciscom 38wwwiciscom 38

Chinese inventories have heavy influence on buying interest Q1 shortage supported sellersrsquo decision to offload more TOL

Ave = 103kt Ave = 903kt Ave = 89kt

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

USD

tonne0

00 to

nnes

east China south China CFR China price Import parity price of CNY cargoes

Strong demand from gasoline blending sector and cargo delays result in 3-year low inventories

Period of strong demand

Previously overbought slow offtake after LNY

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 39

S Korearsquos importexport position for TOL dependent on TDP spreads switch in production strategies in Q1 2016

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

50

100

150

200

25003

-Jan

-201

424

-Jan

-201

414

-Feb

-201

407

-Mar

-201

428

-Mar

-201

418

-Apr

-201

409

-May

-201

430

-May

-201

420

-Jun

-201

411

-Jul

-201

401

-Aug

-201

422

-Aug

-201

412

-Sep

-201

403

-Oct

-201

424

-Oct

-201

414

-Nov

-201

405

-Dec

-201

426

-Dec

-201

423

-Jan

-201

513

-Feb

-201

506

-Mar

-201

527

-Mar

-201

517

-Apr

-201

508

-May

-201

529

-May

-201

519

-Jun

-201

510

-Jul

-201

531

-Jul

-201

521

-Aug

-201

511

-Sep

-201

502

-Oct

-201

523

-Oct

-201

513

-Nov

-201

504

-Dec

-201

525

-Dec

-201

522

-Jan

-201

612

-Feb

-201

604

-Mar

-201

625

-Mar

-201

615

-Apr

-201

6

Qty in lsquo000 tonnes

USD

tonn

e

TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Exports from S Korea Imports to S Korea

Start up of UACrsquos TDP

Slight strategy switch as low Chinese inventories strong naphtha-TOL spread since Q1 leads to stronger TOL selling interest

Overall drop in TDP spreads from mid-2014 results in selling interest switch to net exporter

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 40

Heavier downstream unit turnarounds and production adjustments led to more S Korea-origin exports

H1 2015 H1 2016

0

20

40

60

80

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Qty

in 0

00 to

nnes

South Korea exports

China Taiwan Vietnam US Japan Singapore India Others

Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 13 00Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 00 00 18 00Hyundai Cosmo TDP Daesan 00 00 00 50 200 00S Oil No 2 TDP Onsan 00 00 00 200 00 00

00 00 00 250 231 00Producer LocationLG Chem Daesan 00 00 23 23 00 00YNCC No 1 Yeosu 00 00 00 00 50 50Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 00 00 00 08 63 00Lotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 23 00 00S Oil No 2 Onsan 00 00 124 267 00 00SKGC Incheon 67 00 00 00 00 00

67 00 147 321 113 50

Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)

Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)

Source ICIS

Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 00 87Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 27 00 00 00OCI TDI Kunsan 00 06 00 00 00 00GSCX STDP Yeosu 00 00 00 583 82 00Hanwha Total TDP Daesan 00 00 222 278 00 00SKGC TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 00 49 208LG H D A Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38

38 45 288 899 169 333Producer Location Hanwha Total Daesan 00 00 153 191 00 00GSCX Yeosu 00 00 00 174 49 00Lotte Chem Yeosu 00 00 00 47 16 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 00 78 333YNCC Yeosu 00 00 33 17 00 00

00 00 186 428 143 333

Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)

Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)

wwwiciscom 41wwwiciscom 41

NE Asia and SE Asia exports to China rise since H2 2015 on healthy netbacks strong demand

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

USD

tonne

Qty

in 0

00 to

nnes

Others

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea

Import parity of domesticcargoesFOB South Korea prices

Increase in selling to China because of healthy netbacks weak TDP spread

Narrow gap results in fewer imports in line with FOB K price support from PX

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 42wwwiciscom 42

Exports from Asia to US market sporadic highly dependent on price gap gasoline blending season and Asia demand

0

10

20

30

40

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250Q

ty in 000 tonnesU

SDto

nne

Price gap (Asia prompt vs US forward) Exports from Asia to US

Open arbitrage opportunities result in increase of Asia exports

Consistent upward trend leads to selling interest

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 43wwwiciscom 43

India TOL imports mainly from SE Asia and Iran

46

23

17

37

4

2014

Singapore Thailand Iran S Korea Europe Others

2015

50

24

9

37

7

Source customs data

Total= 288kt Total= 288kt

wwwiciscom 44wwwiciscom 44

NE Asia TOL supply could outstrip demand in H2 2016 on heavier downstream turnarounds permanent shutdowns

H2 2015 H2 2016

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S Oil Onsan old TDP Onsan 00 42 42 00 00 00

00 42 42 00 00 00FCFC Aroma 2 TDP Mailiao 67 200 00 00 00 00

67 200 00 00 00 00JX Nippon Oil TDP Mizushima A 00 00 75 75 00 00

00 00 75 75 00 0067 242 117 75 00 00

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecLotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 73 25 00KPIC Ulsan 00 00 00 83 00 00S Oil No 1 Onsan 00 146 146 00 00 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 167 333 00OCI Yeosu 00 00 00 33 00 00

00 146 146 357 358 00Mitsui Chemicals Chiba 00 00 00 83 83 00JX Nippon Oil Mizushima A 00 00 117 233 00 00Tonen General Wakayama 00 00 00 69 92 00

00 00 117 385 175 00FCFC Aroma No 2 Mailiao 83 250 00 00 00 00CPC No 6 Kaohsiung 40 00 20 80 20 00CPC No3 Kaoshiung 00 00 00 00 83 55

123 250 20 80 103 55123 396 283 822 636 55

Est TOL consumption loss from KR

Est TOL consumption loss from TW

Est TOL production loss from KR

Total est consumption loss from NE Asia

Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia

CONSUMPTION (mt)

PRODUCTION (mt)

Est TOL consumption loss from JPN

Est TOL production loss from JPN

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUlsan Aromatics Center TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 1000 500 00SKGC TDP Incheon 00 00 00 83 42 00LG Chem H D A (shut since Jan) Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38

38 38 38 1122 580 38Taiyo Oil TDP cut rate only Kikuma 42 07 00 00 00 00MSNC TDI (shut since April) Omuta 65 65 65 65 65 65

107 72 65 65 65 65145 110 103 1187 645 103

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSKGC Incheon 00 00 00 133 67 00

00 00 00 133 67 00Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 00 00 108 108 00 00JFEC Chiba 00 00 14 42 00 00

00 00 122 150 00 00CPC No 7 Kaohsiung 00 00 00 27 108 00CPC No 3 Kaohsiung 110 00 00 00 00 00

110 00 00 27 108 00110 00 122 310 175 00

Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia

PRODUCTION (mt)

CONSUMPTION (mt)

Est TOL consumption loss from KR

Est TOL consumption loss from JPNTotal est consumption loss from NE Asia

Est TOL production loss from KR

Est TOL production loss from JPN

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016

Qty

in to

nnes

Total est consumption loss from NE Asia Total est production loss from NE AsiaSource ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45

Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance

Source ICIS

bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016

bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread

bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption

bull Improvements in TOL blend values

bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading

bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer

bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers

bull Other competitively priced blendstocks

bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL

bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China

TOL supply

TOL demand

Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors

wwwiciscom 46

Drivers of benzene trade flow

wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47

-60-40-200204060

500550600650700750800850900

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea

China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016

020000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000180000200000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Tonn

es

Others

MiddleEastThailand

Malaysia

Taiwan

Japan

SouthKorea

China imports

Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand

Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance

Strong appetite for imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48

Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

-

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

Pric

e ($

tonn

e)

Tonn

es

Shore tank inventories

E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity

2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite

Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains

Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49

-80-60-40-20020406080100

500550600650700750800850900950

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15

Tonn

es

OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea

Imports from Asia increase

Imports lower due to higher China prices

S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015

Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates

US imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50

Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600Ja

n-14

Feb-

14M

ar-1

4A

pr-1

4M

ay-1

4Ju

n-14

Jul-1

4A

ug-1

4Se

p-14

Oct

-14

Nov

-14

Dec

-14

Jan-

15Fe

b-15

Mar

-15

Apr

-15

May

-15

Jun-

15Ju

l-15

Aug

-15

Sep-

15O

ct-1

5N

ov-1

5D

ec-1

5Ja

n-16

Feb-

16M

ar-1

6A

pr-1

6

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)Naphtha-Benzene

Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene

$346t $193t $230t

wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51

S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32

Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300

SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15

YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37

2015 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25

S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25

SK Global Chem Incheon 200

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16

OthersTaiwanChinaUS

S Korea exports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52

Outlook increased supply likely to head to China

Source ICIS industry

Company Location BZ Start up period

Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016

Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16

Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos

(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul

Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16

Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16

Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16

Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017

Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex

Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017

Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017

KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017

Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017

Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726

Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322

Product Company Location Capacity(kta)

BZ usage Start up period

SM

Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16

Donghao China 300 240 May-16

Phenol

PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16

Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16

Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17

PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017

Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017

CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17

CPL

Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16

China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16

Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16

MDI

Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017

Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017

Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017

Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972

Consumption within China in 2016 637 655

wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53

Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season

S Korea 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75

BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0

S Korea 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5

KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26

S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13

BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3

Japan 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36

Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12

BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0

Japan 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23

Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24

JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24

BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17

Source ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54

BZ demandBZ supply

bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China

bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ

bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene

bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units

bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher

bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure

bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed

bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand

Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55

Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom

Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom

Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom

Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom

wwwiciscom 56

Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets

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wwwiciscom 57

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Page 26: Asia Olefins & Aromatics Markets –A Turning of the Tide? · PDF fileBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news, ... Saudi Arabia 1,500 350 LDPE,1,080 solution PEQ2/mid 2016

wwwiciscom 27Source Industry

Chinarsquos ethylene import demand in 2016 could increase to around 1550-1600kt from 2015rsquos 1516kt

wwwiciscom 2828

Arbitrage amp Mideast cargoes help offset regional supply shortfalls around 500-565kt expected in 2016

Source Industry

Saudi 170-175kt

US 130-140kt

Europe 200-250kt

Projected spot supply excludes term cargoes

wwwiciscom 29

US ethane-based derivative expansions ndash an emerging threat

wwwiciscom 30

Company LocationC2 capacity (rsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream (lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Start-up schedule

Chevron Phillips ChemicalCedar Bayou Texas 1500

500 Bimodal HDPE 500 mLLDPE at Sweeny Mid 2017

Dow Chemical Freeport Texas 1500400 ELITE PE 350 LDPE 320 elastomers 200 EPDM H1 2017

ExxonMobil Chemical Baytown Texas 1500650x2 mLLDPE plus LLDPE at Mont Belvieu H2 2017

Formosa PlasticsPoint Comfort Texas 1590

525 PE unspec 6255 LDPE1000 MEG 20172018

Occidental ChemicalMexichem Ingleside Texas 544 Feed into existing 1050 VCM Q1 2017

SasolLake Charles Louisiana 1500

450 LDPE 450 LLDPE 300EOEG 300 ethoxylatesdetergent alcohols 2018

Total C28134 Total PE 51005

2017-2018 US ethylene amp derivatives projects country to become major PE exporter

Source ICIS Chemical Business

wwwiciscom 31

Chinarsquos PE deficit to continue

wwwiciscom 32wwwiciscom 32

Asia ethylene market to remain tight in 2016

Low-cost US PE exports likely to begin in late 2017 operations of naphtha-based integrated producers in Asia may be impacted

Conclusion

wwwiciscom 33

Asiarsquos toluene and benzene trade flows

wwwiciscom 34

Drivers of Asiarsquos toluene trade flow

wwwiciscom 35wwwiciscom 35

Asiarsquos TOL prices still tracks PX but relationship may weaken on narrower TDP spreads wider toluene-naphtha gap

0

50

100

150

200

250

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

160002

-Jan

-201

422

-Jan

-201

412

-Feb

-201

404

-Mar

-201

424

-Mar

-201

411

-Apr

-201

401

-May

-201

421

-May

-201

410

-Jun

-201

430

-Jun

-201

418

-Jul

-201

407

-Aug

-201

427

-Aug

-201

416

-Sep

-201

406

-Oct

-201

424

-Oct

-201

413

-Nov

-201

403

-Dec

-201

423

-Dec

-201

421

-Jan

-201

510

-Feb

-201

504

-Mar

-201

524

-Mar

-201

513

-Apr

-201

504

-May

-201

522

-May

-201

511

-Jun

-201

501

-Jul

-201

521

-Jul

-201

511

-Aug

-201

531

-Aug

-201

518

-Sep

-201

508

-Oct

-201

528

-Oct

-201

517

-Nov

-201

507

-Dec

-201

504

-Jan

-201

622

-Jan

-201

615

-Feb

-201

604

-Mar

-201

624

-Mar

-201

6

TDP spread (U

SDtonne)

USD

tonn

e

TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Toluene FOB K PX CFR CN

CF 094

CF 095

CF = correlation factor

CF 092

CF= 093

Healthy margins prevailed in 2014 supporting the closer relationship between PX and TOL prices

Margins turned largely negative in 2015 weakening the relationship slightly Strong blend value (BV) of TOL had larger impact on prices

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 36wwwiciscom 36

Wider toluene-naphtha spread since end-2015 increased toluene selling impetus instead of downstream usage allocation

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400Price spread (U

SDtonne)

USD

tonn

e

Toluene-Naphtha spread Naphtha CFR Japan Toluene FOB South Korea

Heavy speculation low Chinese + Indian inventory healthy PX spread led to widened spread in Q1 2016

Price increases supported by start-up of UAC higher usage of TOL for TDP units in addition to summer blending season

Breakeven level

Ave = 230Ave = 170Ave = 170

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 37wwwiciscom 37

TOL heavily placed in blending pool in 2015 capping op rates of downstream TDPs 2016 situation may be reversed

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

USD

tonn

e

Toluene blend value Toluene FOB Korea prices

95-TOL CF= 090

Strong TOL BV in H1 of 2014 results in the price support from gasoline blending strengthening relationship between the two

FOB K prices consistently higher than BV difficult to find demand from blending pool

95-TOL CF= 06895-TOL CF= 090

TOL BV surpasses TOL FOB K making it possible to be placed into blending pool for most of 2015

CF = correlation factorSource ICIS

wwwiciscom 38wwwiciscom 38

Chinese inventories have heavy influence on buying interest Q1 shortage supported sellersrsquo decision to offload more TOL

Ave = 103kt Ave = 903kt Ave = 89kt

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

USD

tonne0

00 to

nnes

east China south China CFR China price Import parity price of CNY cargoes

Strong demand from gasoline blending sector and cargo delays result in 3-year low inventories

Period of strong demand

Previously overbought slow offtake after LNY

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 39

S Korearsquos importexport position for TOL dependent on TDP spreads switch in production strategies in Q1 2016

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

50

100

150

200

25003

-Jan

-201

424

-Jan

-201

414

-Feb

-201

407

-Mar

-201

428

-Mar

-201

418

-Apr

-201

409

-May

-201

430

-May

-201

420

-Jun

-201

411

-Jul

-201

401

-Aug

-201

422

-Aug

-201

412

-Sep

-201

403

-Oct

-201

424

-Oct

-201

414

-Nov

-201

405

-Dec

-201

426

-Dec

-201

423

-Jan

-201

513

-Feb

-201

506

-Mar

-201

527

-Mar

-201

517

-Apr

-201

508

-May

-201

529

-May

-201

519

-Jun

-201

510

-Jul

-201

531

-Jul

-201

521

-Aug

-201

511

-Sep

-201

502

-Oct

-201

523

-Oct

-201

513

-Nov

-201

504

-Dec

-201

525

-Dec

-201

522

-Jan

-201

612

-Feb

-201

604

-Mar

-201

625

-Mar

-201

615

-Apr

-201

6

Qty in lsquo000 tonnes

USD

tonn

e

TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Exports from S Korea Imports to S Korea

Start up of UACrsquos TDP

Slight strategy switch as low Chinese inventories strong naphtha-TOL spread since Q1 leads to stronger TOL selling interest

Overall drop in TDP spreads from mid-2014 results in selling interest switch to net exporter

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 40

Heavier downstream unit turnarounds and production adjustments led to more S Korea-origin exports

H1 2015 H1 2016

0

20

40

60

80

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Qty

in 0

00 to

nnes

South Korea exports

China Taiwan Vietnam US Japan Singapore India Others

Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 13 00Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 00 00 18 00Hyundai Cosmo TDP Daesan 00 00 00 50 200 00S Oil No 2 TDP Onsan 00 00 00 200 00 00

00 00 00 250 231 00Producer LocationLG Chem Daesan 00 00 23 23 00 00YNCC No 1 Yeosu 00 00 00 00 50 50Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 00 00 00 08 63 00Lotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 23 00 00S Oil No 2 Onsan 00 00 124 267 00 00SKGC Incheon 67 00 00 00 00 00

67 00 147 321 113 50

Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)

Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)

Source ICIS

Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 00 87Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 27 00 00 00OCI TDI Kunsan 00 06 00 00 00 00GSCX STDP Yeosu 00 00 00 583 82 00Hanwha Total TDP Daesan 00 00 222 278 00 00SKGC TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 00 49 208LG H D A Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38

38 45 288 899 169 333Producer Location Hanwha Total Daesan 00 00 153 191 00 00GSCX Yeosu 00 00 00 174 49 00Lotte Chem Yeosu 00 00 00 47 16 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 00 78 333YNCC Yeosu 00 00 33 17 00 00

00 00 186 428 143 333

Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)

Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)

wwwiciscom 41wwwiciscom 41

NE Asia and SE Asia exports to China rise since H2 2015 on healthy netbacks strong demand

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

USD

tonne

Qty

in 0

00 to

nnes

Others

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea

Import parity of domesticcargoesFOB South Korea prices

Increase in selling to China because of healthy netbacks weak TDP spread

Narrow gap results in fewer imports in line with FOB K price support from PX

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 42wwwiciscom 42

Exports from Asia to US market sporadic highly dependent on price gap gasoline blending season and Asia demand

0

10

20

30

40

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250Q

ty in 000 tonnesU

SDto

nne

Price gap (Asia prompt vs US forward) Exports from Asia to US

Open arbitrage opportunities result in increase of Asia exports

Consistent upward trend leads to selling interest

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 43wwwiciscom 43

India TOL imports mainly from SE Asia and Iran

46

23

17

37

4

2014

Singapore Thailand Iran S Korea Europe Others

2015

50

24

9

37

7

Source customs data

Total= 288kt Total= 288kt

wwwiciscom 44wwwiciscom 44

NE Asia TOL supply could outstrip demand in H2 2016 on heavier downstream turnarounds permanent shutdowns

H2 2015 H2 2016

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S Oil Onsan old TDP Onsan 00 42 42 00 00 00

00 42 42 00 00 00FCFC Aroma 2 TDP Mailiao 67 200 00 00 00 00

67 200 00 00 00 00JX Nippon Oil TDP Mizushima A 00 00 75 75 00 00

00 00 75 75 00 0067 242 117 75 00 00

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecLotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 73 25 00KPIC Ulsan 00 00 00 83 00 00S Oil No 1 Onsan 00 146 146 00 00 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 167 333 00OCI Yeosu 00 00 00 33 00 00

00 146 146 357 358 00Mitsui Chemicals Chiba 00 00 00 83 83 00JX Nippon Oil Mizushima A 00 00 117 233 00 00Tonen General Wakayama 00 00 00 69 92 00

00 00 117 385 175 00FCFC Aroma No 2 Mailiao 83 250 00 00 00 00CPC No 6 Kaohsiung 40 00 20 80 20 00CPC No3 Kaoshiung 00 00 00 00 83 55

123 250 20 80 103 55123 396 283 822 636 55

Est TOL consumption loss from KR

Est TOL consumption loss from TW

Est TOL production loss from KR

Total est consumption loss from NE Asia

Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia

CONSUMPTION (mt)

PRODUCTION (mt)

Est TOL consumption loss from JPN

Est TOL production loss from JPN

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUlsan Aromatics Center TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 1000 500 00SKGC TDP Incheon 00 00 00 83 42 00LG Chem H D A (shut since Jan) Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38

38 38 38 1122 580 38Taiyo Oil TDP cut rate only Kikuma 42 07 00 00 00 00MSNC TDI (shut since April) Omuta 65 65 65 65 65 65

107 72 65 65 65 65145 110 103 1187 645 103

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSKGC Incheon 00 00 00 133 67 00

00 00 00 133 67 00Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 00 00 108 108 00 00JFEC Chiba 00 00 14 42 00 00

00 00 122 150 00 00CPC No 7 Kaohsiung 00 00 00 27 108 00CPC No 3 Kaohsiung 110 00 00 00 00 00

110 00 00 27 108 00110 00 122 310 175 00

Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia

PRODUCTION (mt)

CONSUMPTION (mt)

Est TOL consumption loss from KR

Est TOL consumption loss from JPNTotal est consumption loss from NE Asia

Est TOL production loss from KR

Est TOL production loss from JPN

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016

Qty

in to

nnes

Total est consumption loss from NE Asia Total est production loss from NE AsiaSource ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45

Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance

Source ICIS

bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016

bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread

bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption

bull Improvements in TOL blend values

bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading

bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer

bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers

bull Other competitively priced blendstocks

bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL

bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China

TOL supply

TOL demand

Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors

wwwiciscom 46

Drivers of benzene trade flow

wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47

-60-40-200204060

500550600650700750800850900

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea

China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016

020000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000180000200000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Tonn

es

Others

MiddleEastThailand

Malaysia

Taiwan

Japan

SouthKorea

China imports

Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand

Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance

Strong appetite for imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48

Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

-

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

Pric

e ($

tonn

e)

Tonn

es

Shore tank inventories

E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity

2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite

Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains

Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49

-80-60-40-20020406080100

500550600650700750800850900950

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15

Tonn

es

OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea

Imports from Asia increase

Imports lower due to higher China prices

S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015

Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates

US imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50

Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600Ja

n-14

Feb-

14M

ar-1

4A

pr-1

4M

ay-1

4Ju

n-14

Jul-1

4A

ug-1

4Se

p-14

Oct

-14

Nov

-14

Dec

-14

Jan-

15Fe

b-15

Mar

-15

Apr

-15

May

-15

Jun-

15Ju

l-15

Aug

-15

Sep-

15O

ct-1

5N

ov-1

5D

ec-1

5Ja

n-16

Feb-

16M

ar-1

6A

pr-1

6

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)Naphtha-Benzene

Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene

$346t $193t $230t

wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51

S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32

Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300

SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15

YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37

2015 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25

S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25

SK Global Chem Incheon 200

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16

OthersTaiwanChinaUS

S Korea exports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52

Outlook increased supply likely to head to China

Source ICIS industry

Company Location BZ Start up period

Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016

Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16

Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos

(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul

Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16

Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16

Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16

Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017

Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex

Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017

Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017

KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017

Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017

Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726

Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322

Product Company Location Capacity(kta)

BZ usage Start up period

SM

Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16

Donghao China 300 240 May-16

Phenol

PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16

Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16

Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17

PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017

Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017

CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17

CPL

Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16

China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16

Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16

MDI

Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017

Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017

Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017

Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972

Consumption within China in 2016 637 655

wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53

Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season

S Korea 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75

BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0

S Korea 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5

KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26

S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13

BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3

Japan 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36

Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12

BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0

Japan 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23

Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24

JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24

BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17

Source ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54

BZ demandBZ supply

bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China

bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ

bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene

bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units

bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher

bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure

bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed

bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand

Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55

Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom

Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom

Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom

Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom

wwwiciscom 56

Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets

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wwwiciscom 57

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Page 27: Asia Olefins & Aromatics Markets –A Turning of the Tide? · PDF fileBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news, ... Saudi Arabia 1,500 350 LDPE,1,080 solution PEQ2/mid 2016

wwwiciscom 2828

Arbitrage amp Mideast cargoes help offset regional supply shortfalls around 500-565kt expected in 2016

Source Industry

Saudi 170-175kt

US 130-140kt

Europe 200-250kt

Projected spot supply excludes term cargoes

wwwiciscom 29

US ethane-based derivative expansions ndash an emerging threat

wwwiciscom 30

Company LocationC2 capacity (rsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream (lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Start-up schedule

Chevron Phillips ChemicalCedar Bayou Texas 1500

500 Bimodal HDPE 500 mLLDPE at Sweeny Mid 2017

Dow Chemical Freeport Texas 1500400 ELITE PE 350 LDPE 320 elastomers 200 EPDM H1 2017

ExxonMobil Chemical Baytown Texas 1500650x2 mLLDPE plus LLDPE at Mont Belvieu H2 2017

Formosa PlasticsPoint Comfort Texas 1590

525 PE unspec 6255 LDPE1000 MEG 20172018

Occidental ChemicalMexichem Ingleside Texas 544 Feed into existing 1050 VCM Q1 2017

SasolLake Charles Louisiana 1500

450 LDPE 450 LLDPE 300EOEG 300 ethoxylatesdetergent alcohols 2018

Total C28134 Total PE 51005

2017-2018 US ethylene amp derivatives projects country to become major PE exporter

Source ICIS Chemical Business

wwwiciscom 31

Chinarsquos PE deficit to continue

wwwiciscom 32wwwiciscom 32

Asia ethylene market to remain tight in 2016

Low-cost US PE exports likely to begin in late 2017 operations of naphtha-based integrated producers in Asia may be impacted

Conclusion

wwwiciscom 33

Asiarsquos toluene and benzene trade flows

wwwiciscom 34

Drivers of Asiarsquos toluene trade flow

wwwiciscom 35wwwiciscom 35

Asiarsquos TOL prices still tracks PX but relationship may weaken on narrower TDP spreads wider toluene-naphtha gap

0

50

100

150

200

250

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

160002

-Jan

-201

422

-Jan

-201

412

-Feb

-201

404

-Mar

-201

424

-Mar

-201

411

-Apr

-201

401

-May

-201

421

-May

-201

410

-Jun

-201

430

-Jun

-201

418

-Jul

-201

407

-Aug

-201

427

-Aug

-201

416

-Sep

-201

406

-Oct

-201

424

-Oct

-201

413

-Nov

-201

403

-Dec

-201

423

-Dec

-201

421

-Jan

-201

510

-Feb

-201

504

-Mar

-201

524

-Mar

-201

513

-Apr

-201

504

-May

-201

522

-May

-201

511

-Jun

-201

501

-Jul

-201

521

-Jul

-201

511

-Aug

-201

531

-Aug

-201

518

-Sep

-201

508

-Oct

-201

528

-Oct

-201

517

-Nov

-201

507

-Dec

-201

504

-Jan

-201

622

-Jan

-201

615

-Feb

-201

604

-Mar

-201

624

-Mar

-201

6

TDP spread (U

SDtonne)

USD

tonn

e

TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Toluene FOB K PX CFR CN

CF 094

CF 095

CF = correlation factor

CF 092

CF= 093

Healthy margins prevailed in 2014 supporting the closer relationship between PX and TOL prices

Margins turned largely negative in 2015 weakening the relationship slightly Strong blend value (BV) of TOL had larger impact on prices

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 36wwwiciscom 36

Wider toluene-naphtha spread since end-2015 increased toluene selling impetus instead of downstream usage allocation

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400Price spread (U

SDtonne)

USD

tonn

e

Toluene-Naphtha spread Naphtha CFR Japan Toluene FOB South Korea

Heavy speculation low Chinese + Indian inventory healthy PX spread led to widened spread in Q1 2016

Price increases supported by start-up of UAC higher usage of TOL for TDP units in addition to summer blending season

Breakeven level

Ave = 230Ave = 170Ave = 170

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 37wwwiciscom 37

TOL heavily placed in blending pool in 2015 capping op rates of downstream TDPs 2016 situation may be reversed

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

USD

tonn

e

Toluene blend value Toluene FOB Korea prices

95-TOL CF= 090

Strong TOL BV in H1 of 2014 results in the price support from gasoline blending strengthening relationship between the two

FOB K prices consistently higher than BV difficult to find demand from blending pool

95-TOL CF= 06895-TOL CF= 090

TOL BV surpasses TOL FOB K making it possible to be placed into blending pool for most of 2015

CF = correlation factorSource ICIS

wwwiciscom 38wwwiciscom 38

Chinese inventories have heavy influence on buying interest Q1 shortage supported sellersrsquo decision to offload more TOL

Ave = 103kt Ave = 903kt Ave = 89kt

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

USD

tonne0

00 to

nnes

east China south China CFR China price Import parity price of CNY cargoes

Strong demand from gasoline blending sector and cargo delays result in 3-year low inventories

Period of strong demand

Previously overbought slow offtake after LNY

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 39

S Korearsquos importexport position for TOL dependent on TDP spreads switch in production strategies in Q1 2016

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

50

100

150

200

25003

-Jan

-201

424

-Jan

-201

414

-Feb

-201

407

-Mar

-201

428

-Mar

-201

418

-Apr

-201

409

-May

-201

430

-May

-201

420

-Jun

-201

411

-Jul

-201

401

-Aug

-201

422

-Aug

-201

412

-Sep

-201

403

-Oct

-201

424

-Oct

-201

414

-Nov

-201

405

-Dec

-201

426

-Dec

-201

423

-Jan

-201

513

-Feb

-201

506

-Mar

-201

527

-Mar

-201

517

-Apr

-201

508

-May

-201

529

-May

-201

519

-Jun

-201

510

-Jul

-201

531

-Jul

-201

521

-Aug

-201

511

-Sep

-201

502

-Oct

-201

523

-Oct

-201

513

-Nov

-201

504

-Dec

-201

525

-Dec

-201

522

-Jan

-201

612

-Feb

-201

604

-Mar

-201

625

-Mar

-201

615

-Apr

-201

6

Qty in lsquo000 tonnes

USD

tonn

e

TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Exports from S Korea Imports to S Korea

Start up of UACrsquos TDP

Slight strategy switch as low Chinese inventories strong naphtha-TOL spread since Q1 leads to stronger TOL selling interest

Overall drop in TDP spreads from mid-2014 results in selling interest switch to net exporter

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 40

Heavier downstream unit turnarounds and production adjustments led to more S Korea-origin exports

H1 2015 H1 2016

0

20

40

60

80

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Qty

in 0

00 to

nnes

South Korea exports

China Taiwan Vietnam US Japan Singapore India Others

Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 13 00Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 00 00 18 00Hyundai Cosmo TDP Daesan 00 00 00 50 200 00S Oil No 2 TDP Onsan 00 00 00 200 00 00

00 00 00 250 231 00Producer LocationLG Chem Daesan 00 00 23 23 00 00YNCC No 1 Yeosu 00 00 00 00 50 50Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 00 00 00 08 63 00Lotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 23 00 00S Oil No 2 Onsan 00 00 124 267 00 00SKGC Incheon 67 00 00 00 00 00

67 00 147 321 113 50

Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)

Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)

Source ICIS

Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 00 87Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 27 00 00 00OCI TDI Kunsan 00 06 00 00 00 00GSCX STDP Yeosu 00 00 00 583 82 00Hanwha Total TDP Daesan 00 00 222 278 00 00SKGC TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 00 49 208LG H D A Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38

38 45 288 899 169 333Producer Location Hanwha Total Daesan 00 00 153 191 00 00GSCX Yeosu 00 00 00 174 49 00Lotte Chem Yeosu 00 00 00 47 16 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 00 78 333YNCC Yeosu 00 00 33 17 00 00

00 00 186 428 143 333

Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)

Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)

wwwiciscom 41wwwiciscom 41

NE Asia and SE Asia exports to China rise since H2 2015 on healthy netbacks strong demand

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

USD

tonne

Qty

in 0

00 to

nnes

Others

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea

Import parity of domesticcargoesFOB South Korea prices

Increase in selling to China because of healthy netbacks weak TDP spread

Narrow gap results in fewer imports in line with FOB K price support from PX

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 42wwwiciscom 42

Exports from Asia to US market sporadic highly dependent on price gap gasoline blending season and Asia demand

0

10

20

30

40

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250Q

ty in 000 tonnesU

SDto

nne

Price gap (Asia prompt vs US forward) Exports from Asia to US

Open arbitrage opportunities result in increase of Asia exports

Consistent upward trend leads to selling interest

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 43wwwiciscom 43

India TOL imports mainly from SE Asia and Iran

46

23

17

37

4

2014

Singapore Thailand Iran S Korea Europe Others

2015

50

24

9

37

7

Source customs data

Total= 288kt Total= 288kt

wwwiciscom 44wwwiciscom 44

NE Asia TOL supply could outstrip demand in H2 2016 on heavier downstream turnarounds permanent shutdowns

H2 2015 H2 2016

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S Oil Onsan old TDP Onsan 00 42 42 00 00 00

00 42 42 00 00 00FCFC Aroma 2 TDP Mailiao 67 200 00 00 00 00

67 200 00 00 00 00JX Nippon Oil TDP Mizushima A 00 00 75 75 00 00

00 00 75 75 00 0067 242 117 75 00 00

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecLotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 73 25 00KPIC Ulsan 00 00 00 83 00 00S Oil No 1 Onsan 00 146 146 00 00 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 167 333 00OCI Yeosu 00 00 00 33 00 00

00 146 146 357 358 00Mitsui Chemicals Chiba 00 00 00 83 83 00JX Nippon Oil Mizushima A 00 00 117 233 00 00Tonen General Wakayama 00 00 00 69 92 00

00 00 117 385 175 00FCFC Aroma No 2 Mailiao 83 250 00 00 00 00CPC No 6 Kaohsiung 40 00 20 80 20 00CPC No3 Kaoshiung 00 00 00 00 83 55

123 250 20 80 103 55123 396 283 822 636 55

Est TOL consumption loss from KR

Est TOL consumption loss from TW

Est TOL production loss from KR

Total est consumption loss from NE Asia

Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia

CONSUMPTION (mt)

PRODUCTION (mt)

Est TOL consumption loss from JPN

Est TOL production loss from JPN

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUlsan Aromatics Center TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 1000 500 00SKGC TDP Incheon 00 00 00 83 42 00LG Chem H D A (shut since Jan) Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38

38 38 38 1122 580 38Taiyo Oil TDP cut rate only Kikuma 42 07 00 00 00 00MSNC TDI (shut since April) Omuta 65 65 65 65 65 65

107 72 65 65 65 65145 110 103 1187 645 103

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSKGC Incheon 00 00 00 133 67 00

00 00 00 133 67 00Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 00 00 108 108 00 00JFEC Chiba 00 00 14 42 00 00

00 00 122 150 00 00CPC No 7 Kaohsiung 00 00 00 27 108 00CPC No 3 Kaohsiung 110 00 00 00 00 00

110 00 00 27 108 00110 00 122 310 175 00

Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia

PRODUCTION (mt)

CONSUMPTION (mt)

Est TOL consumption loss from KR

Est TOL consumption loss from JPNTotal est consumption loss from NE Asia

Est TOL production loss from KR

Est TOL production loss from JPN

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016

Qty

in to

nnes

Total est consumption loss from NE Asia Total est production loss from NE AsiaSource ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45

Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance

Source ICIS

bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016

bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread

bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption

bull Improvements in TOL blend values

bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading

bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer

bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers

bull Other competitively priced blendstocks

bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL

bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China

TOL supply

TOL demand

Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors

wwwiciscom 46

Drivers of benzene trade flow

wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47

-60-40-200204060

500550600650700750800850900

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea

China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016

020000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000180000200000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Tonn

es

Others

MiddleEastThailand

Malaysia

Taiwan

Japan

SouthKorea

China imports

Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand

Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance

Strong appetite for imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48

Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

-

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

Pric

e ($

tonn

e)

Tonn

es

Shore tank inventories

E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity

2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite

Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains

Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49

-80-60-40-20020406080100

500550600650700750800850900950

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15

Tonn

es

OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea

Imports from Asia increase

Imports lower due to higher China prices

S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015

Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates

US imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50

Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600Ja

n-14

Feb-

14M

ar-1

4A

pr-1

4M

ay-1

4Ju

n-14

Jul-1

4A

ug-1

4Se

p-14

Oct

-14

Nov

-14

Dec

-14

Jan-

15Fe

b-15

Mar

-15

Apr

-15

May

-15

Jun-

15Ju

l-15

Aug

-15

Sep-

15O

ct-1

5N

ov-1

5D

ec-1

5Ja

n-16

Feb-

16M

ar-1

6A

pr-1

6

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)Naphtha-Benzene

Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene

$346t $193t $230t

wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51

S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32

Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300

SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15

YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37

2015 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25

S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25

SK Global Chem Incheon 200

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16

OthersTaiwanChinaUS

S Korea exports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52

Outlook increased supply likely to head to China

Source ICIS industry

Company Location BZ Start up period

Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016

Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16

Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos

(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul

Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16

Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16

Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16

Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017

Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex

Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017

Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017

KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017

Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017

Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726

Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322

Product Company Location Capacity(kta)

BZ usage Start up period

SM

Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16

Donghao China 300 240 May-16

Phenol

PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16

Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16

Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17

PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017

Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017

CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17

CPL

Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16

China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16

Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16

MDI

Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017

Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017

Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017

Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972

Consumption within China in 2016 637 655

wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53

Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season

S Korea 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75

BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0

S Korea 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5

KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26

S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13

BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3

Japan 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36

Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12

BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0

Japan 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23

Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24

JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24

BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17

Source ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54

BZ demandBZ supply

bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China

bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ

bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene

bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units

bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher

bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure

bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed

bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand

Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55

Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom

Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom

Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom

Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom

wwwiciscom 56

Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets

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wwwiciscom 57

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Page 28: Asia Olefins & Aromatics Markets –A Turning of the Tide? · PDF fileBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news, ... Saudi Arabia 1,500 350 LDPE,1,080 solution PEQ2/mid 2016

wwwiciscom 29

US ethane-based derivative expansions ndash an emerging threat

wwwiciscom 30

Company LocationC2 capacity (rsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream (lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Start-up schedule

Chevron Phillips ChemicalCedar Bayou Texas 1500

500 Bimodal HDPE 500 mLLDPE at Sweeny Mid 2017

Dow Chemical Freeport Texas 1500400 ELITE PE 350 LDPE 320 elastomers 200 EPDM H1 2017

ExxonMobil Chemical Baytown Texas 1500650x2 mLLDPE plus LLDPE at Mont Belvieu H2 2017

Formosa PlasticsPoint Comfort Texas 1590

525 PE unspec 6255 LDPE1000 MEG 20172018

Occidental ChemicalMexichem Ingleside Texas 544 Feed into existing 1050 VCM Q1 2017

SasolLake Charles Louisiana 1500

450 LDPE 450 LLDPE 300EOEG 300 ethoxylatesdetergent alcohols 2018

Total C28134 Total PE 51005

2017-2018 US ethylene amp derivatives projects country to become major PE exporter

Source ICIS Chemical Business

wwwiciscom 31

Chinarsquos PE deficit to continue

wwwiciscom 32wwwiciscom 32

Asia ethylene market to remain tight in 2016

Low-cost US PE exports likely to begin in late 2017 operations of naphtha-based integrated producers in Asia may be impacted

Conclusion

wwwiciscom 33

Asiarsquos toluene and benzene trade flows

wwwiciscom 34

Drivers of Asiarsquos toluene trade flow

wwwiciscom 35wwwiciscom 35

Asiarsquos TOL prices still tracks PX but relationship may weaken on narrower TDP spreads wider toluene-naphtha gap

0

50

100

150

200

250

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

160002

-Jan

-201

422

-Jan

-201

412

-Feb

-201

404

-Mar

-201

424

-Mar

-201

411

-Apr

-201

401

-May

-201

421

-May

-201

410

-Jun

-201

430

-Jun

-201

418

-Jul

-201

407

-Aug

-201

427

-Aug

-201

416

-Sep

-201

406

-Oct

-201

424

-Oct

-201

413

-Nov

-201

403

-Dec

-201

423

-Dec

-201

421

-Jan

-201

510

-Feb

-201

504

-Mar

-201

524

-Mar

-201

513

-Apr

-201

504

-May

-201

522

-May

-201

511

-Jun

-201

501

-Jul

-201

521

-Jul

-201

511

-Aug

-201

531

-Aug

-201

518

-Sep

-201

508

-Oct

-201

528

-Oct

-201

517

-Nov

-201

507

-Dec

-201

504

-Jan

-201

622

-Jan

-201

615

-Feb

-201

604

-Mar

-201

624

-Mar

-201

6

TDP spread (U

SDtonne)

USD

tonn

e

TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Toluene FOB K PX CFR CN

CF 094

CF 095

CF = correlation factor

CF 092

CF= 093

Healthy margins prevailed in 2014 supporting the closer relationship between PX and TOL prices

Margins turned largely negative in 2015 weakening the relationship slightly Strong blend value (BV) of TOL had larger impact on prices

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 36wwwiciscom 36

Wider toluene-naphtha spread since end-2015 increased toluene selling impetus instead of downstream usage allocation

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400Price spread (U

SDtonne)

USD

tonn

e

Toluene-Naphtha spread Naphtha CFR Japan Toluene FOB South Korea

Heavy speculation low Chinese + Indian inventory healthy PX spread led to widened spread in Q1 2016

Price increases supported by start-up of UAC higher usage of TOL for TDP units in addition to summer blending season

Breakeven level

Ave = 230Ave = 170Ave = 170

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 37wwwiciscom 37

TOL heavily placed in blending pool in 2015 capping op rates of downstream TDPs 2016 situation may be reversed

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

USD

tonn

e

Toluene blend value Toluene FOB Korea prices

95-TOL CF= 090

Strong TOL BV in H1 of 2014 results in the price support from gasoline blending strengthening relationship between the two

FOB K prices consistently higher than BV difficult to find demand from blending pool

95-TOL CF= 06895-TOL CF= 090

TOL BV surpasses TOL FOB K making it possible to be placed into blending pool for most of 2015

CF = correlation factorSource ICIS

wwwiciscom 38wwwiciscom 38

Chinese inventories have heavy influence on buying interest Q1 shortage supported sellersrsquo decision to offload more TOL

Ave = 103kt Ave = 903kt Ave = 89kt

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

USD

tonne0

00 to

nnes

east China south China CFR China price Import parity price of CNY cargoes

Strong demand from gasoline blending sector and cargo delays result in 3-year low inventories

Period of strong demand

Previously overbought slow offtake after LNY

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 39

S Korearsquos importexport position for TOL dependent on TDP spreads switch in production strategies in Q1 2016

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

50

100

150

200

25003

-Jan

-201

424

-Jan

-201

414

-Feb

-201

407

-Mar

-201

428

-Mar

-201

418

-Apr

-201

409

-May

-201

430

-May

-201

420

-Jun

-201

411

-Jul

-201

401

-Aug

-201

422

-Aug

-201

412

-Sep

-201

403

-Oct

-201

424

-Oct

-201

414

-Nov

-201

405

-Dec

-201

426

-Dec

-201

423

-Jan

-201

513

-Feb

-201

506

-Mar

-201

527

-Mar

-201

517

-Apr

-201

508

-May

-201

529

-May

-201

519

-Jun

-201

510

-Jul

-201

531

-Jul

-201

521

-Aug

-201

511

-Sep

-201

502

-Oct

-201

523

-Oct

-201

513

-Nov

-201

504

-Dec

-201

525

-Dec

-201

522

-Jan

-201

612

-Feb

-201

604

-Mar

-201

625

-Mar

-201

615

-Apr

-201

6

Qty in lsquo000 tonnes

USD

tonn

e

TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Exports from S Korea Imports to S Korea

Start up of UACrsquos TDP

Slight strategy switch as low Chinese inventories strong naphtha-TOL spread since Q1 leads to stronger TOL selling interest

Overall drop in TDP spreads from mid-2014 results in selling interest switch to net exporter

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 40

Heavier downstream unit turnarounds and production adjustments led to more S Korea-origin exports

H1 2015 H1 2016

0

20

40

60

80

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Qty

in 0

00 to

nnes

South Korea exports

China Taiwan Vietnam US Japan Singapore India Others

Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 13 00Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 00 00 18 00Hyundai Cosmo TDP Daesan 00 00 00 50 200 00S Oil No 2 TDP Onsan 00 00 00 200 00 00

00 00 00 250 231 00Producer LocationLG Chem Daesan 00 00 23 23 00 00YNCC No 1 Yeosu 00 00 00 00 50 50Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 00 00 00 08 63 00Lotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 23 00 00S Oil No 2 Onsan 00 00 124 267 00 00SKGC Incheon 67 00 00 00 00 00

67 00 147 321 113 50

Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)

Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)

Source ICIS

Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 00 87Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 27 00 00 00OCI TDI Kunsan 00 06 00 00 00 00GSCX STDP Yeosu 00 00 00 583 82 00Hanwha Total TDP Daesan 00 00 222 278 00 00SKGC TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 00 49 208LG H D A Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38

38 45 288 899 169 333Producer Location Hanwha Total Daesan 00 00 153 191 00 00GSCX Yeosu 00 00 00 174 49 00Lotte Chem Yeosu 00 00 00 47 16 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 00 78 333YNCC Yeosu 00 00 33 17 00 00

00 00 186 428 143 333

Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)

Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)

wwwiciscom 41wwwiciscom 41

NE Asia and SE Asia exports to China rise since H2 2015 on healthy netbacks strong demand

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

USD

tonne

Qty

in 0

00 to

nnes

Others

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea

Import parity of domesticcargoesFOB South Korea prices

Increase in selling to China because of healthy netbacks weak TDP spread

Narrow gap results in fewer imports in line with FOB K price support from PX

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 42wwwiciscom 42

Exports from Asia to US market sporadic highly dependent on price gap gasoline blending season and Asia demand

0

10

20

30

40

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250Q

ty in 000 tonnesU

SDto

nne

Price gap (Asia prompt vs US forward) Exports from Asia to US

Open arbitrage opportunities result in increase of Asia exports

Consistent upward trend leads to selling interest

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 43wwwiciscom 43

India TOL imports mainly from SE Asia and Iran

46

23

17

37

4

2014

Singapore Thailand Iran S Korea Europe Others

2015

50

24

9

37

7

Source customs data

Total= 288kt Total= 288kt

wwwiciscom 44wwwiciscom 44

NE Asia TOL supply could outstrip demand in H2 2016 on heavier downstream turnarounds permanent shutdowns

H2 2015 H2 2016

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S Oil Onsan old TDP Onsan 00 42 42 00 00 00

00 42 42 00 00 00FCFC Aroma 2 TDP Mailiao 67 200 00 00 00 00

67 200 00 00 00 00JX Nippon Oil TDP Mizushima A 00 00 75 75 00 00

00 00 75 75 00 0067 242 117 75 00 00

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecLotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 73 25 00KPIC Ulsan 00 00 00 83 00 00S Oil No 1 Onsan 00 146 146 00 00 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 167 333 00OCI Yeosu 00 00 00 33 00 00

00 146 146 357 358 00Mitsui Chemicals Chiba 00 00 00 83 83 00JX Nippon Oil Mizushima A 00 00 117 233 00 00Tonen General Wakayama 00 00 00 69 92 00

00 00 117 385 175 00FCFC Aroma No 2 Mailiao 83 250 00 00 00 00CPC No 6 Kaohsiung 40 00 20 80 20 00CPC No3 Kaoshiung 00 00 00 00 83 55

123 250 20 80 103 55123 396 283 822 636 55

Est TOL consumption loss from KR

Est TOL consumption loss from TW

Est TOL production loss from KR

Total est consumption loss from NE Asia

Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia

CONSUMPTION (mt)

PRODUCTION (mt)

Est TOL consumption loss from JPN

Est TOL production loss from JPN

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUlsan Aromatics Center TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 1000 500 00SKGC TDP Incheon 00 00 00 83 42 00LG Chem H D A (shut since Jan) Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38

38 38 38 1122 580 38Taiyo Oil TDP cut rate only Kikuma 42 07 00 00 00 00MSNC TDI (shut since April) Omuta 65 65 65 65 65 65

107 72 65 65 65 65145 110 103 1187 645 103

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSKGC Incheon 00 00 00 133 67 00

00 00 00 133 67 00Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 00 00 108 108 00 00JFEC Chiba 00 00 14 42 00 00

00 00 122 150 00 00CPC No 7 Kaohsiung 00 00 00 27 108 00CPC No 3 Kaohsiung 110 00 00 00 00 00

110 00 00 27 108 00110 00 122 310 175 00

Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia

PRODUCTION (mt)

CONSUMPTION (mt)

Est TOL consumption loss from KR

Est TOL consumption loss from JPNTotal est consumption loss from NE Asia

Est TOL production loss from KR

Est TOL production loss from JPN

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016

Qty

in to

nnes

Total est consumption loss from NE Asia Total est production loss from NE AsiaSource ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45

Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance

Source ICIS

bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016

bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread

bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption

bull Improvements in TOL blend values

bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading

bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer

bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers

bull Other competitively priced blendstocks

bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL

bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China

TOL supply

TOL demand

Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors

wwwiciscom 46

Drivers of benzene trade flow

wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47

-60-40-200204060

500550600650700750800850900

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea

China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016

020000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000180000200000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Tonn

es

Others

MiddleEastThailand

Malaysia

Taiwan

Japan

SouthKorea

China imports

Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand

Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance

Strong appetite for imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48

Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

-

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

Pric

e ($

tonn

e)

Tonn

es

Shore tank inventories

E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity

2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite

Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains

Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49

-80-60-40-20020406080100

500550600650700750800850900950

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15

Tonn

es

OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea

Imports from Asia increase

Imports lower due to higher China prices

S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015

Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates

US imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50

Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600Ja

n-14

Feb-

14M

ar-1

4A

pr-1

4M

ay-1

4Ju

n-14

Jul-1

4A

ug-1

4Se

p-14

Oct

-14

Nov

-14

Dec

-14

Jan-

15Fe

b-15

Mar

-15

Apr

-15

May

-15

Jun-

15Ju

l-15

Aug

-15

Sep-

15O

ct-1

5N

ov-1

5D

ec-1

5Ja

n-16

Feb-

16M

ar-1

6A

pr-1

6

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)Naphtha-Benzene

Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene

$346t $193t $230t

wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51

S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32

Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300

SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15

YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37

2015 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25

S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25

SK Global Chem Incheon 200

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16

OthersTaiwanChinaUS

S Korea exports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52

Outlook increased supply likely to head to China

Source ICIS industry

Company Location BZ Start up period

Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016

Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16

Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos

(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul

Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16

Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16

Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16

Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017

Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex

Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017

Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017

KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017

Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017

Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726

Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322

Product Company Location Capacity(kta)

BZ usage Start up period

SM

Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16

Donghao China 300 240 May-16

Phenol

PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16

Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16

Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17

PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017

Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017

CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17

CPL

Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16

China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16

Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16

MDI

Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017

Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017

Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017

Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972

Consumption within China in 2016 637 655

wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53

Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season

S Korea 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75

BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0

S Korea 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5

KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26

S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13

BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3

Japan 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36

Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12

BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0

Japan 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23

Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24

JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24

BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17

Source ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54

BZ demandBZ supply

bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China

bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ

bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene

bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units

bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher

bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure

bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed

bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand

Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55

Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom

Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom

Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom

Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom

wwwiciscom 56

Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets

Pricing information

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wwwiciscom 57

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Page 29: Asia Olefins & Aromatics Markets –A Turning of the Tide? · PDF fileBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news, ... Saudi Arabia 1,500 350 LDPE,1,080 solution PEQ2/mid 2016

wwwiciscom 30

Company LocationC2 capacity (rsquo000 tonnesyr)

C2 downstream (lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Start-up schedule

Chevron Phillips ChemicalCedar Bayou Texas 1500

500 Bimodal HDPE 500 mLLDPE at Sweeny Mid 2017

Dow Chemical Freeport Texas 1500400 ELITE PE 350 LDPE 320 elastomers 200 EPDM H1 2017

ExxonMobil Chemical Baytown Texas 1500650x2 mLLDPE plus LLDPE at Mont Belvieu H2 2017

Formosa PlasticsPoint Comfort Texas 1590

525 PE unspec 6255 LDPE1000 MEG 20172018

Occidental ChemicalMexichem Ingleside Texas 544 Feed into existing 1050 VCM Q1 2017

SasolLake Charles Louisiana 1500

450 LDPE 450 LLDPE 300EOEG 300 ethoxylatesdetergent alcohols 2018

Total C28134 Total PE 51005

2017-2018 US ethylene amp derivatives projects country to become major PE exporter

Source ICIS Chemical Business

wwwiciscom 31

Chinarsquos PE deficit to continue

wwwiciscom 32wwwiciscom 32

Asia ethylene market to remain tight in 2016

Low-cost US PE exports likely to begin in late 2017 operations of naphtha-based integrated producers in Asia may be impacted

Conclusion

wwwiciscom 33

Asiarsquos toluene and benzene trade flows

wwwiciscom 34

Drivers of Asiarsquos toluene trade flow

wwwiciscom 35wwwiciscom 35

Asiarsquos TOL prices still tracks PX but relationship may weaken on narrower TDP spreads wider toluene-naphtha gap

0

50

100

150

200

250

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

160002

-Jan

-201

422

-Jan

-201

412

-Feb

-201

404

-Mar

-201

424

-Mar

-201

411

-Apr

-201

401

-May

-201

421

-May

-201

410

-Jun

-201

430

-Jun

-201

418

-Jul

-201

407

-Aug

-201

427

-Aug

-201

416

-Sep

-201

406

-Oct

-201

424

-Oct

-201

413

-Nov

-201

403

-Dec

-201

423

-Dec

-201

421

-Jan

-201

510

-Feb

-201

504

-Mar

-201

524

-Mar

-201

513

-Apr

-201

504

-May

-201

522

-May

-201

511

-Jun

-201

501

-Jul

-201

521

-Jul

-201

511

-Aug

-201

531

-Aug

-201

518

-Sep

-201

508

-Oct

-201

528

-Oct

-201

517

-Nov

-201

507

-Dec

-201

504

-Jan

-201

622

-Jan

-201

615

-Feb

-201

604

-Mar

-201

624

-Mar

-201

6

TDP spread (U

SDtonne)

USD

tonn

e

TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Toluene FOB K PX CFR CN

CF 094

CF 095

CF = correlation factor

CF 092

CF= 093

Healthy margins prevailed in 2014 supporting the closer relationship between PX and TOL prices

Margins turned largely negative in 2015 weakening the relationship slightly Strong blend value (BV) of TOL had larger impact on prices

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 36wwwiciscom 36

Wider toluene-naphtha spread since end-2015 increased toluene selling impetus instead of downstream usage allocation

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400Price spread (U

SDtonne)

USD

tonn

e

Toluene-Naphtha spread Naphtha CFR Japan Toluene FOB South Korea

Heavy speculation low Chinese + Indian inventory healthy PX spread led to widened spread in Q1 2016

Price increases supported by start-up of UAC higher usage of TOL for TDP units in addition to summer blending season

Breakeven level

Ave = 230Ave = 170Ave = 170

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 37wwwiciscom 37

TOL heavily placed in blending pool in 2015 capping op rates of downstream TDPs 2016 situation may be reversed

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

USD

tonn

e

Toluene blend value Toluene FOB Korea prices

95-TOL CF= 090

Strong TOL BV in H1 of 2014 results in the price support from gasoline blending strengthening relationship between the two

FOB K prices consistently higher than BV difficult to find demand from blending pool

95-TOL CF= 06895-TOL CF= 090

TOL BV surpasses TOL FOB K making it possible to be placed into blending pool for most of 2015

CF = correlation factorSource ICIS

wwwiciscom 38wwwiciscom 38

Chinese inventories have heavy influence on buying interest Q1 shortage supported sellersrsquo decision to offload more TOL

Ave = 103kt Ave = 903kt Ave = 89kt

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

USD

tonne0

00 to

nnes

east China south China CFR China price Import parity price of CNY cargoes

Strong demand from gasoline blending sector and cargo delays result in 3-year low inventories

Period of strong demand

Previously overbought slow offtake after LNY

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 39

S Korearsquos importexport position for TOL dependent on TDP spreads switch in production strategies in Q1 2016

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

50

100

150

200

25003

-Jan

-201

424

-Jan

-201

414

-Feb

-201

407

-Mar

-201

428

-Mar

-201

418

-Apr

-201

409

-May

-201

430

-May

-201

420

-Jun

-201

411

-Jul

-201

401

-Aug

-201

422

-Aug

-201

412

-Sep

-201

403

-Oct

-201

424

-Oct

-201

414

-Nov

-201

405

-Dec

-201

426

-Dec

-201

423

-Jan

-201

513

-Feb

-201

506

-Mar

-201

527

-Mar

-201

517

-Apr

-201

508

-May

-201

529

-May

-201

519

-Jun

-201

510

-Jul

-201

531

-Jul

-201

521

-Aug

-201

511

-Sep

-201

502

-Oct

-201

523

-Oct

-201

513

-Nov

-201

504

-Dec

-201

525

-Dec

-201

522

-Jan

-201

612

-Feb

-201

604

-Mar

-201

625

-Mar

-201

615

-Apr

-201

6

Qty in lsquo000 tonnes

USD

tonn

e

TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Exports from S Korea Imports to S Korea

Start up of UACrsquos TDP

Slight strategy switch as low Chinese inventories strong naphtha-TOL spread since Q1 leads to stronger TOL selling interest

Overall drop in TDP spreads from mid-2014 results in selling interest switch to net exporter

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 40

Heavier downstream unit turnarounds and production adjustments led to more S Korea-origin exports

H1 2015 H1 2016

0

20

40

60

80

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Qty

in 0

00 to

nnes

South Korea exports

China Taiwan Vietnam US Japan Singapore India Others

Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 13 00Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 00 00 18 00Hyundai Cosmo TDP Daesan 00 00 00 50 200 00S Oil No 2 TDP Onsan 00 00 00 200 00 00

00 00 00 250 231 00Producer LocationLG Chem Daesan 00 00 23 23 00 00YNCC No 1 Yeosu 00 00 00 00 50 50Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 00 00 00 08 63 00Lotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 23 00 00S Oil No 2 Onsan 00 00 124 267 00 00SKGC Incheon 67 00 00 00 00 00

67 00 147 321 113 50

Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)

Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)

Source ICIS

Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 00 87Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 27 00 00 00OCI TDI Kunsan 00 06 00 00 00 00GSCX STDP Yeosu 00 00 00 583 82 00Hanwha Total TDP Daesan 00 00 222 278 00 00SKGC TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 00 49 208LG H D A Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38

38 45 288 899 169 333Producer Location Hanwha Total Daesan 00 00 153 191 00 00GSCX Yeosu 00 00 00 174 49 00Lotte Chem Yeosu 00 00 00 47 16 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 00 78 333YNCC Yeosu 00 00 33 17 00 00

00 00 186 428 143 333

Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)

Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)

wwwiciscom 41wwwiciscom 41

NE Asia and SE Asia exports to China rise since H2 2015 on healthy netbacks strong demand

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

USD

tonne

Qty

in 0

00 to

nnes

Others

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea

Import parity of domesticcargoesFOB South Korea prices

Increase in selling to China because of healthy netbacks weak TDP spread

Narrow gap results in fewer imports in line with FOB K price support from PX

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 42wwwiciscom 42

Exports from Asia to US market sporadic highly dependent on price gap gasoline blending season and Asia demand

0

10

20

30

40

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250Q

ty in 000 tonnesU

SDto

nne

Price gap (Asia prompt vs US forward) Exports from Asia to US

Open arbitrage opportunities result in increase of Asia exports

Consistent upward trend leads to selling interest

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 43wwwiciscom 43

India TOL imports mainly from SE Asia and Iran

46

23

17

37

4

2014

Singapore Thailand Iran S Korea Europe Others

2015

50

24

9

37

7

Source customs data

Total= 288kt Total= 288kt

wwwiciscom 44wwwiciscom 44

NE Asia TOL supply could outstrip demand in H2 2016 on heavier downstream turnarounds permanent shutdowns

H2 2015 H2 2016

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S Oil Onsan old TDP Onsan 00 42 42 00 00 00

00 42 42 00 00 00FCFC Aroma 2 TDP Mailiao 67 200 00 00 00 00

67 200 00 00 00 00JX Nippon Oil TDP Mizushima A 00 00 75 75 00 00

00 00 75 75 00 0067 242 117 75 00 00

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecLotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 73 25 00KPIC Ulsan 00 00 00 83 00 00S Oil No 1 Onsan 00 146 146 00 00 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 167 333 00OCI Yeosu 00 00 00 33 00 00

00 146 146 357 358 00Mitsui Chemicals Chiba 00 00 00 83 83 00JX Nippon Oil Mizushima A 00 00 117 233 00 00Tonen General Wakayama 00 00 00 69 92 00

00 00 117 385 175 00FCFC Aroma No 2 Mailiao 83 250 00 00 00 00CPC No 6 Kaohsiung 40 00 20 80 20 00CPC No3 Kaoshiung 00 00 00 00 83 55

123 250 20 80 103 55123 396 283 822 636 55

Est TOL consumption loss from KR

Est TOL consumption loss from TW

Est TOL production loss from KR

Total est consumption loss from NE Asia

Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia

CONSUMPTION (mt)

PRODUCTION (mt)

Est TOL consumption loss from JPN

Est TOL production loss from JPN

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUlsan Aromatics Center TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 1000 500 00SKGC TDP Incheon 00 00 00 83 42 00LG Chem H D A (shut since Jan) Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38

38 38 38 1122 580 38Taiyo Oil TDP cut rate only Kikuma 42 07 00 00 00 00MSNC TDI (shut since April) Omuta 65 65 65 65 65 65

107 72 65 65 65 65145 110 103 1187 645 103

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSKGC Incheon 00 00 00 133 67 00

00 00 00 133 67 00Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 00 00 108 108 00 00JFEC Chiba 00 00 14 42 00 00

00 00 122 150 00 00CPC No 7 Kaohsiung 00 00 00 27 108 00CPC No 3 Kaohsiung 110 00 00 00 00 00

110 00 00 27 108 00110 00 122 310 175 00

Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia

PRODUCTION (mt)

CONSUMPTION (mt)

Est TOL consumption loss from KR

Est TOL consumption loss from JPNTotal est consumption loss from NE Asia

Est TOL production loss from KR

Est TOL production loss from JPN

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016

Qty

in to

nnes

Total est consumption loss from NE Asia Total est production loss from NE AsiaSource ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45

Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance

Source ICIS

bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016

bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread

bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption

bull Improvements in TOL blend values

bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading

bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer

bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers

bull Other competitively priced blendstocks

bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL

bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China

TOL supply

TOL demand

Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors

wwwiciscom 46

Drivers of benzene trade flow

wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47

-60-40-200204060

500550600650700750800850900

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea

China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016

020000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000180000200000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Tonn

es

Others

MiddleEastThailand

Malaysia

Taiwan

Japan

SouthKorea

China imports

Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand

Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance

Strong appetite for imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48

Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

-

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

Pric

e ($

tonn

e)

Tonn

es

Shore tank inventories

E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity

2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite

Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains

Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49

-80-60-40-20020406080100

500550600650700750800850900950

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15

Tonn

es

OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea

Imports from Asia increase

Imports lower due to higher China prices

S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015

Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates

US imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50

Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600Ja

n-14

Feb-

14M

ar-1

4A

pr-1

4M

ay-1

4Ju

n-14

Jul-1

4A

ug-1

4Se

p-14

Oct

-14

Nov

-14

Dec

-14

Jan-

15Fe

b-15

Mar

-15

Apr

-15

May

-15

Jun-

15Ju

l-15

Aug

-15

Sep-

15O

ct-1

5N

ov-1

5D

ec-1

5Ja

n-16

Feb-

16M

ar-1

6A

pr-1

6

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)Naphtha-Benzene

Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene

$346t $193t $230t

wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51

S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32

Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300

SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15

YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37

2015 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25

S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25

SK Global Chem Incheon 200

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16

OthersTaiwanChinaUS

S Korea exports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52

Outlook increased supply likely to head to China

Source ICIS industry

Company Location BZ Start up period

Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016

Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16

Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos

(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul

Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16

Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16

Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16

Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017

Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex

Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017

Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017

KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017

Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017

Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726

Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322

Product Company Location Capacity(kta)

BZ usage Start up period

SM

Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16

Donghao China 300 240 May-16

Phenol

PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16

Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16

Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17

PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017

Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017

CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17

CPL

Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16

China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16

Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16

MDI

Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017

Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017

Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017

Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972

Consumption within China in 2016 637 655

wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53

Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season

S Korea 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75

BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0

S Korea 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5

KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26

S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13

BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3

Japan 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36

Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12

BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0

Japan 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23

Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24

JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24

BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17

Source ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54

BZ demandBZ supply

bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China

bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ

bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene

bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units

bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher

bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure

bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed

bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand

Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55

Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom

Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom

Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom

Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom

wwwiciscom 56

Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets

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Page 30: Asia Olefins & Aromatics Markets –A Turning of the Tide? · PDF fileBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news, ... Saudi Arabia 1,500 350 LDPE,1,080 solution PEQ2/mid 2016

wwwiciscom 31

Chinarsquos PE deficit to continue

wwwiciscom 32wwwiciscom 32

Asia ethylene market to remain tight in 2016

Low-cost US PE exports likely to begin in late 2017 operations of naphtha-based integrated producers in Asia may be impacted

Conclusion

wwwiciscom 33

Asiarsquos toluene and benzene trade flows

wwwiciscom 34

Drivers of Asiarsquos toluene trade flow

wwwiciscom 35wwwiciscom 35

Asiarsquos TOL prices still tracks PX but relationship may weaken on narrower TDP spreads wider toluene-naphtha gap

0

50

100

150

200

250

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

160002

-Jan

-201

422

-Jan

-201

412

-Feb

-201

404

-Mar

-201

424

-Mar

-201

411

-Apr

-201

401

-May

-201

421

-May

-201

410

-Jun

-201

430

-Jun

-201

418

-Jul

-201

407

-Aug

-201

427

-Aug

-201

416

-Sep

-201

406

-Oct

-201

424

-Oct

-201

413

-Nov

-201

403

-Dec

-201

423

-Dec

-201

421

-Jan

-201

510

-Feb

-201

504

-Mar

-201

524

-Mar

-201

513

-Apr

-201

504

-May

-201

522

-May

-201

511

-Jun

-201

501

-Jul

-201

521

-Jul

-201

511

-Aug

-201

531

-Aug

-201

518

-Sep

-201

508

-Oct

-201

528

-Oct

-201

517

-Nov

-201

507

-Dec

-201

504

-Jan

-201

622

-Jan

-201

615

-Feb

-201

604

-Mar

-201

624

-Mar

-201

6

TDP spread (U

SDtonne)

USD

tonn

e

TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Toluene FOB K PX CFR CN

CF 094

CF 095

CF = correlation factor

CF 092

CF= 093

Healthy margins prevailed in 2014 supporting the closer relationship between PX and TOL prices

Margins turned largely negative in 2015 weakening the relationship slightly Strong blend value (BV) of TOL had larger impact on prices

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 36wwwiciscom 36

Wider toluene-naphtha spread since end-2015 increased toluene selling impetus instead of downstream usage allocation

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400Price spread (U

SDtonne)

USD

tonn

e

Toluene-Naphtha spread Naphtha CFR Japan Toluene FOB South Korea

Heavy speculation low Chinese + Indian inventory healthy PX spread led to widened spread in Q1 2016

Price increases supported by start-up of UAC higher usage of TOL for TDP units in addition to summer blending season

Breakeven level

Ave = 230Ave = 170Ave = 170

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 37wwwiciscom 37

TOL heavily placed in blending pool in 2015 capping op rates of downstream TDPs 2016 situation may be reversed

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

USD

tonn

e

Toluene blend value Toluene FOB Korea prices

95-TOL CF= 090

Strong TOL BV in H1 of 2014 results in the price support from gasoline blending strengthening relationship between the two

FOB K prices consistently higher than BV difficult to find demand from blending pool

95-TOL CF= 06895-TOL CF= 090

TOL BV surpasses TOL FOB K making it possible to be placed into blending pool for most of 2015

CF = correlation factorSource ICIS

wwwiciscom 38wwwiciscom 38

Chinese inventories have heavy influence on buying interest Q1 shortage supported sellersrsquo decision to offload more TOL

Ave = 103kt Ave = 903kt Ave = 89kt

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

USD

tonne0

00 to

nnes

east China south China CFR China price Import parity price of CNY cargoes

Strong demand from gasoline blending sector and cargo delays result in 3-year low inventories

Period of strong demand

Previously overbought slow offtake after LNY

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 39

S Korearsquos importexport position for TOL dependent on TDP spreads switch in production strategies in Q1 2016

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

50

100

150

200

25003

-Jan

-201

424

-Jan

-201

414

-Feb

-201

407

-Mar

-201

428

-Mar

-201

418

-Apr

-201

409

-May

-201

430

-May

-201

420

-Jun

-201

411

-Jul

-201

401

-Aug

-201

422

-Aug

-201

412

-Sep

-201

403

-Oct

-201

424

-Oct

-201

414

-Nov

-201

405

-Dec

-201

426

-Dec

-201

423

-Jan

-201

513

-Feb

-201

506

-Mar

-201

527

-Mar

-201

517

-Apr

-201

508

-May

-201

529

-May

-201

519

-Jun

-201

510

-Jul

-201

531

-Jul

-201

521

-Aug

-201

511

-Sep

-201

502

-Oct

-201

523

-Oct

-201

513

-Nov

-201

504

-Dec

-201

525

-Dec

-201

522

-Jan

-201

612

-Feb

-201

604

-Mar

-201

625

-Mar

-201

615

-Apr

-201

6

Qty in lsquo000 tonnes

USD

tonn

e

TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Exports from S Korea Imports to S Korea

Start up of UACrsquos TDP

Slight strategy switch as low Chinese inventories strong naphtha-TOL spread since Q1 leads to stronger TOL selling interest

Overall drop in TDP spreads from mid-2014 results in selling interest switch to net exporter

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 40

Heavier downstream unit turnarounds and production adjustments led to more S Korea-origin exports

H1 2015 H1 2016

0

20

40

60

80

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Qty

in 0

00 to

nnes

South Korea exports

China Taiwan Vietnam US Japan Singapore India Others

Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 13 00Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 00 00 18 00Hyundai Cosmo TDP Daesan 00 00 00 50 200 00S Oil No 2 TDP Onsan 00 00 00 200 00 00

00 00 00 250 231 00Producer LocationLG Chem Daesan 00 00 23 23 00 00YNCC No 1 Yeosu 00 00 00 00 50 50Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 00 00 00 08 63 00Lotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 23 00 00S Oil No 2 Onsan 00 00 124 267 00 00SKGC Incheon 67 00 00 00 00 00

67 00 147 321 113 50

Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)

Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)

Source ICIS

Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 00 87Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 27 00 00 00OCI TDI Kunsan 00 06 00 00 00 00GSCX STDP Yeosu 00 00 00 583 82 00Hanwha Total TDP Daesan 00 00 222 278 00 00SKGC TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 00 49 208LG H D A Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38

38 45 288 899 169 333Producer Location Hanwha Total Daesan 00 00 153 191 00 00GSCX Yeosu 00 00 00 174 49 00Lotte Chem Yeosu 00 00 00 47 16 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 00 78 333YNCC Yeosu 00 00 33 17 00 00

00 00 186 428 143 333

Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)

Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)

wwwiciscom 41wwwiciscom 41

NE Asia and SE Asia exports to China rise since H2 2015 on healthy netbacks strong demand

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

USD

tonne

Qty

in 0

00 to

nnes

Others

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea

Import parity of domesticcargoesFOB South Korea prices

Increase in selling to China because of healthy netbacks weak TDP spread

Narrow gap results in fewer imports in line with FOB K price support from PX

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 42wwwiciscom 42

Exports from Asia to US market sporadic highly dependent on price gap gasoline blending season and Asia demand

0

10

20

30

40

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250Q

ty in 000 tonnesU

SDto

nne

Price gap (Asia prompt vs US forward) Exports from Asia to US

Open arbitrage opportunities result in increase of Asia exports

Consistent upward trend leads to selling interest

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 43wwwiciscom 43

India TOL imports mainly from SE Asia and Iran

46

23

17

37

4

2014

Singapore Thailand Iran S Korea Europe Others

2015

50

24

9

37

7

Source customs data

Total= 288kt Total= 288kt

wwwiciscom 44wwwiciscom 44

NE Asia TOL supply could outstrip demand in H2 2016 on heavier downstream turnarounds permanent shutdowns

H2 2015 H2 2016

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S Oil Onsan old TDP Onsan 00 42 42 00 00 00

00 42 42 00 00 00FCFC Aroma 2 TDP Mailiao 67 200 00 00 00 00

67 200 00 00 00 00JX Nippon Oil TDP Mizushima A 00 00 75 75 00 00

00 00 75 75 00 0067 242 117 75 00 00

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecLotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 73 25 00KPIC Ulsan 00 00 00 83 00 00S Oil No 1 Onsan 00 146 146 00 00 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 167 333 00OCI Yeosu 00 00 00 33 00 00

00 146 146 357 358 00Mitsui Chemicals Chiba 00 00 00 83 83 00JX Nippon Oil Mizushima A 00 00 117 233 00 00Tonen General Wakayama 00 00 00 69 92 00

00 00 117 385 175 00FCFC Aroma No 2 Mailiao 83 250 00 00 00 00CPC No 6 Kaohsiung 40 00 20 80 20 00CPC No3 Kaoshiung 00 00 00 00 83 55

123 250 20 80 103 55123 396 283 822 636 55

Est TOL consumption loss from KR

Est TOL consumption loss from TW

Est TOL production loss from KR

Total est consumption loss from NE Asia

Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia

CONSUMPTION (mt)

PRODUCTION (mt)

Est TOL consumption loss from JPN

Est TOL production loss from JPN

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUlsan Aromatics Center TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 1000 500 00SKGC TDP Incheon 00 00 00 83 42 00LG Chem H D A (shut since Jan) Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38

38 38 38 1122 580 38Taiyo Oil TDP cut rate only Kikuma 42 07 00 00 00 00MSNC TDI (shut since April) Omuta 65 65 65 65 65 65

107 72 65 65 65 65145 110 103 1187 645 103

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSKGC Incheon 00 00 00 133 67 00

00 00 00 133 67 00Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 00 00 108 108 00 00JFEC Chiba 00 00 14 42 00 00

00 00 122 150 00 00CPC No 7 Kaohsiung 00 00 00 27 108 00CPC No 3 Kaohsiung 110 00 00 00 00 00

110 00 00 27 108 00110 00 122 310 175 00

Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia

PRODUCTION (mt)

CONSUMPTION (mt)

Est TOL consumption loss from KR

Est TOL consumption loss from JPNTotal est consumption loss from NE Asia

Est TOL production loss from KR

Est TOL production loss from JPN

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016

Qty

in to

nnes

Total est consumption loss from NE Asia Total est production loss from NE AsiaSource ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45

Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance

Source ICIS

bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016

bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread

bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption

bull Improvements in TOL blend values

bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading

bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer

bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers

bull Other competitively priced blendstocks

bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL

bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China

TOL supply

TOL demand

Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors

wwwiciscom 46

Drivers of benzene trade flow

wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47

-60-40-200204060

500550600650700750800850900

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea

China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016

020000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000180000200000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Tonn

es

Others

MiddleEastThailand

Malaysia

Taiwan

Japan

SouthKorea

China imports

Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand

Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance

Strong appetite for imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48

Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

-

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

Pric

e ($

tonn

e)

Tonn

es

Shore tank inventories

E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity

2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite

Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains

Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49

-80-60-40-20020406080100

500550600650700750800850900950

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15

Tonn

es

OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea

Imports from Asia increase

Imports lower due to higher China prices

S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015

Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates

US imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50

Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600Ja

n-14

Feb-

14M

ar-1

4A

pr-1

4M

ay-1

4Ju

n-14

Jul-1

4A

ug-1

4Se

p-14

Oct

-14

Nov

-14

Dec

-14

Jan-

15Fe

b-15

Mar

-15

Apr

-15

May

-15

Jun-

15Ju

l-15

Aug

-15

Sep-

15O

ct-1

5N

ov-1

5D

ec-1

5Ja

n-16

Feb-

16M

ar-1

6A

pr-1

6

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)Naphtha-Benzene

Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene

$346t $193t $230t

wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51

S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32

Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300

SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15

YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37

2015 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25

S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25

SK Global Chem Incheon 200

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16

OthersTaiwanChinaUS

S Korea exports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52

Outlook increased supply likely to head to China

Source ICIS industry

Company Location BZ Start up period

Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016

Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16

Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos

(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul

Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16

Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16

Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16

Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017

Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex

Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017

Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017

KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017

Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017

Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726

Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322

Product Company Location Capacity(kta)

BZ usage Start up period

SM

Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16

Donghao China 300 240 May-16

Phenol

PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16

Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16

Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17

PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017

Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017

CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17

CPL

Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16

China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16

Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16

MDI

Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017

Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017

Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017

Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972

Consumption within China in 2016 637 655

wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53

Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season

S Korea 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75

BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0

S Korea 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5

KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26

S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13

BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3

Japan 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36

Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12

BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0

Japan 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23

Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24

JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24

BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17

Source ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54

BZ demandBZ supply

bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China

bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ

bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene

bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units

bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher

bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure

bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed

bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand

Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55

Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom

Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom

Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom

Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom

wwwiciscom 56

Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets

Pricing information

- ButadieneC4s- Ethylene

Request your free sample report gtgt

We produce reliable price assessments and analyses covering Asian aromatics and olefins markets including price histories and a 12-month rolling price forecast enabling you to understand price drivers and settle your contract prices more confidently Our pricing coverage includes

- Mixed xylenes

- Propylene- Toluene

Real-time news serviceBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news including updates on plant capacities output and shutdowns

In-depth analysis of ChinaThe comprehensive studies on olefins and aromatics provide credible data and analysis to support your annual sales and strategy planning by giving you all of the following

- Comprehensive market overviews with detailed regional supply data and company profiles for 2013-2017

- In-depth downstream demand analysis and forecasts - Detailed import analysis between 2012-2014

Enquire about the annual studies

Request a free trial

Supply and demand data We give you an end-to-end perspective across the global petrochemical and refinery supply chain enabling you to grasp the local or regional scenario in a global context Data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2030

Request a free demo

- Benzene- Cumene- Paraxylene ndash Orthoxylene- Styrene

wwwiciscom 57

Bringing you faster more effective ways to improve productivity and decision making

Data ExpressAccess manage and analyse data easier than ever before with our Data Express solutions

bull Excel Plug-in - instantly update your worksheets in Excelbull API ndash stream the latest data directly to your systems

Set up email alerts for the most fluid markets to help you stay on top of market movements and enable you to react faster to price changes and other major developments

Market Alerts

Enquire about our market alerts

Build chart and track your formulas and keep them all in one place using real-time pricing data via the ICIS Dashboard

Formula Builder

Request a trial

Page 31: Asia Olefins & Aromatics Markets –A Turning of the Tide? · PDF fileBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news, ... Saudi Arabia 1,500 350 LDPE,1,080 solution PEQ2/mid 2016

wwwiciscom 32wwwiciscom 32

Asia ethylene market to remain tight in 2016

Low-cost US PE exports likely to begin in late 2017 operations of naphtha-based integrated producers in Asia may be impacted

Conclusion

wwwiciscom 33

Asiarsquos toluene and benzene trade flows

wwwiciscom 34

Drivers of Asiarsquos toluene trade flow

wwwiciscom 35wwwiciscom 35

Asiarsquos TOL prices still tracks PX but relationship may weaken on narrower TDP spreads wider toluene-naphtha gap

0

50

100

150

200

250

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

160002

-Jan

-201

422

-Jan

-201

412

-Feb

-201

404

-Mar

-201

424

-Mar

-201

411

-Apr

-201

401

-May

-201

421

-May

-201

410

-Jun

-201

430

-Jun

-201

418

-Jul

-201

407

-Aug

-201

427

-Aug

-201

416

-Sep

-201

406

-Oct

-201

424

-Oct

-201

413

-Nov

-201

403

-Dec

-201

423

-Dec

-201

421

-Jan

-201

510

-Feb

-201

504

-Mar

-201

524

-Mar

-201

513

-Apr

-201

504

-May

-201

522

-May

-201

511

-Jun

-201

501

-Jul

-201

521

-Jul

-201

511

-Aug

-201

531

-Aug

-201

518

-Sep

-201

508

-Oct

-201

528

-Oct

-201

517

-Nov

-201

507

-Dec

-201

504

-Jan

-201

622

-Jan

-201

615

-Feb

-201

604

-Mar

-201

624

-Mar

-201

6

TDP spread (U

SDtonne)

USD

tonn

e

TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Toluene FOB K PX CFR CN

CF 094

CF 095

CF = correlation factor

CF 092

CF= 093

Healthy margins prevailed in 2014 supporting the closer relationship between PX and TOL prices

Margins turned largely negative in 2015 weakening the relationship slightly Strong blend value (BV) of TOL had larger impact on prices

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 36wwwiciscom 36

Wider toluene-naphtha spread since end-2015 increased toluene selling impetus instead of downstream usage allocation

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400Price spread (U

SDtonne)

USD

tonn

e

Toluene-Naphtha spread Naphtha CFR Japan Toluene FOB South Korea

Heavy speculation low Chinese + Indian inventory healthy PX spread led to widened spread in Q1 2016

Price increases supported by start-up of UAC higher usage of TOL for TDP units in addition to summer blending season

Breakeven level

Ave = 230Ave = 170Ave = 170

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 37wwwiciscom 37

TOL heavily placed in blending pool in 2015 capping op rates of downstream TDPs 2016 situation may be reversed

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

USD

tonn

e

Toluene blend value Toluene FOB Korea prices

95-TOL CF= 090

Strong TOL BV in H1 of 2014 results in the price support from gasoline blending strengthening relationship between the two

FOB K prices consistently higher than BV difficult to find demand from blending pool

95-TOL CF= 06895-TOL CF= 090

TOL BV surpasses TOL FOB K making it possible to be placed into blending pool for most of 2015

CF = correlation factorSource ICIS

wwwiciscom 38wwwiciscom 38

Chinese inventories have heavy influence on buying interest Q1 shortage supported sellersrsquo decision to offload more TOL

Ave = 103kt Ave = 903kt Ave = 89kt

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

USD

tonne0

00 to

nnes

east China south China CFR China price Import parity price of CNY cargoes

Strong demand from gasoline blending sector and cargo delays result in 3-year low inventories

Period of strong demand

Previously overbought slow offtake after LNY

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 39

S Korearsquos importexport position for TOL dependent on TDP spreads switch in production strategies in Q1 2016

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

50

100

150

200

25003

-Jan

-201

424

-Jan

-201

414

-Feb

-201

407

-Mar

-201

428

-Mar

-201

418

-Apr

-201

409

-May

-201

430

-May

-201

420

-Jun

-201

411

-Jul

-201

401

-Aug

-201

422

-Aug

-201

412

-Sep

-201

403

-Oct

-201

424

-Oct

-201

414

-Nov

-201

405

-Dec

-201

426

-Dec

-201

423

-Jan

-201

513

-Feb

-201

506

-Mar

-201

527

-Mar

-201

517

-Apr

-201

508

-May

-201

529

-May

-201

519

-Jun

-201

510

-Jul

-201

531

-Jul

-201

521

-Aug

-201

511

-Sep

-201

502

-Oct

-201

523

-Oct

-201

513

-Nov

-201

504

-Dec

-201

525

-Dec

-201

522

-Jan

-201

612

-Feb

-201

604

-Mar

-201

625

-Mar

-201

615

-Apr

-201

6

Qty in lsquo000 tonnes

USD

tonn

e

TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Exports from S Korea Imports to S Korea

Start up of UACrsquos TDP

Slight strategy switch as low Chinese inventories strong naphtha-TOL spread since Q1 leads to stronger TOL selling interest

Overall drop in TDP spreads from mid-2014 results in selling interest switch to net exporter

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 40

Heavier downstream unit turnarounds and production adjustments led to more S Korea-origin exports

H1 2015 H1 2016

0

20

40

60

80

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Qty

in 0

00 to

nnes

South Korea exports

China Taiwan Vietnam US Japan Singapore India Others

Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 13 00Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 00 00 18 00Hyundai Cosmo TDP Daesan 00 00 00 50 200 00S Oil No 2 TDP Onsan 00 00 00 200 00 00

00 00 00 250 231 00Producer LocationLG Chem Daesan 00 00 23 23 00 00YNCC No 1 Yeosu 00 00 00 00 50 50Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 00 00 00 08 63 00Lotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 23 00 00S Oil No 2 Onsan 00 00 124 267 00 00SKGC Incheon 67 00 00 00 00 00

67 00 147 321 113 50

Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)

Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)

Source ICIS

Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 00 87Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 27 00 00 00OCI TDI Kunsan 00 06 00 00 00 00GSCX STDP Yeosu 00 00 00 583 82 00Hanwha Total TDP Daesan 00 00 222 278 00 00SKGC TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 00 49 208LG H D A Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38

38 45 288 899 169 333Producer Location Hanwha Total Daesan 00 00 153 191 00 00GSCX Yeosu 00 00 00 174 49 00Lotte Chem Yeosu 00 00 00 47 16 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 00 78 333YNCC Yeosu 00 00 33 17 00 00

00 00 186 428 143 333

Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)

Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)

wwwiciscom 41wwwiciscom 41

NE Asia and SE Asia exports to China rise since H2 2015 on healthy netbacks strong demand

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

USD

tonne

Qty

in 0

00 to

nnes

Others

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea

Import parity of domesticcargoesFOB South Korea prices

Increase in selling to China because of healthy netbacks weak TDP spread

Narrow gap results in fewer imports in line with FOB K price support from PX

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 42wwwiciscom 42

Exports from Asia to US market sporadic highly dependent on price gap gasoline blending season and Asia demand

0

10

20

30

40

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250Q

ty in 000 tonnesU

SDto

nne

Price gap (Asia prompt vs US forward) Exports from Asia to US

Open arbitrage opportunities result in increase of Asia exports

Consistent upward trend leads to selling interest

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 43wwwiciscom 43

India TOL imports mainly from SE Asia and Iran

46

23

17

37

4

2014

Singapore Thailand Iran S Korea Europe Others

2015

50

24

9

37

7

Source customs data

Total= 288kt Total= 288kt

wwwiciscom 44wwwiciscom 44

NE Asia TOL supply could outstrip demand in H2 2016 on heavier downstream turnarounds permanent shutdowns

H2 2015 H2 2016

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S Oil Onsan old TDP Onsan 00 42 42 00 00 00

00 42 42 00 00 00FCFC Aroma 2 TDP Mailiao 67 200 00 00 00 00

67 200 00 00 00 00JX Nippon Oil TDP Mizushima A 00 00 75 75 00 00

00 00 75 75 00 0067 242 117 75 00 00

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecLotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 73 25 00KPIC Ulsan 00 00 00 83 00 00S Oil No 1 Onsan 00 146 146 00 00 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 167 333 00OCI Yeosu 00 00 00 33 00 00

00 146 146 357 358 00Mitsui Chemicals Chiba 00 00 00 83 83 00JX Nippon Oil Mizushima A 00 00 117 233 00 00Tonen General Wakayama 00 00 00 69 92 00

00 00 117 385 175 00FCFC Aroma No 2 Mailiao 83 250 00 00 00 00CPC No 6 Kaohsiung 40 00 20 80 20 00CPC No3 Kaoshiung 00 00 00 00 83 55

123 250 20 80 103 55123 396 283 822 636 55

Est TOL consumption loss from KR

Est TOL consumption loss from TW

Est TOL production loss from KR

Total est consumption loss from NE Asia

Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia

CONSUMPTION (mt)

PRODUCTION (mt)

Est TOL consumption loss from JPN

Est TOL production loss from JPN

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUlsan Aromatics Center TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 1000 500 00SKGC TDP Incheon 00 00 00 83 42 00LG Chem H D A (shut since Jan) Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38

38 38 38 1122 580 38Taiyo Oil TDP cut rate only Kikuma 42 07 00 00 00 00MSNC TDI (shut since April) Omuta 65 65 65 65 65 65

107 72 65 65 65 65145 110 103 1187 645 103

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSKGC Incheon 00 00 00 133 67 00

00 00 00 133 67 00Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 00 00 108 108 00 00JFEC Chiba 00 00 14 42 00 00

00 00 122 150 00 00CPC No 7 Kaohsiung 00 00 00 27 108 00CPC No 3 Kaohsiung 110 00 00 00 00 00

110 00 00 27 108 00110 00 122 310 175 00

Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia

PRODUCTION (mt)

CONSUMPTION (mt)

Est TOL consumption loss from KR

Est TOL consumption loss from JPNTotal est consumption loss from NE Asia

Est TOL production loss from KR

Est TOL production loss from JPN

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016

Qty

in to

nnes

Total est consumption loss from NE Asia Total est production loss from NE AsiaSource ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45

Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance

Source ICIS

bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016

bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread

bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption

bull Improvements in TOL blend values

bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading

bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer

bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers

bull Other competitively priced blendstocks

bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL

bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China

TOL supply

TOL demand

Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors

wwwiciscom 46

Drivers of benzene trade flow

wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47

-60-40-200204060

500550600650700750800850900

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea

China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016

020000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000180000200000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Tonn

es

Others

MiddleEastThailand

Malaysia

Taiwan

Japan

SouthKorea

China imports

Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand

Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance

Strong appetite for imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48

Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

-

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

Pric

e ($

tonn

e)

Tonn

es

Shore tank inventories

E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity

2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite

Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains

Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49

-80-60-40-20020406080100

500550600650700750800850900950

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15

Tonn

es

OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea

Imports from Asia increase

Imports lower due to higher China prices

S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015

Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates

US imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50

Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600Ja

n-14

Feb-

14M

ar-1

4A

pr-1

4M

ay-1

4Ju

n-14

Jul-1

4A

ug-1

4Se

p-14

Oct

-14

Nov

-14

Dec

-14

Jan-

15Fe

b-15

Mar

-15

Apr

-15

May

-15

Jun-

15Ju

l-15

Aug

-15

Sep-

15O

ct-1

5N

ov-1

5D

ec-1

5Ja

n-16

Feb-

16M

ar-1

6A

pr-1

6

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)Naphtha-Benzene

Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene

$346t $193t $230t

wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51

S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32

Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300

SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15

YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37

2015 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25

S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25

SK Global Chem Incheon 200

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16

OthersTaiwanChinaUS

S Korea exports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52

Outlook increased supply likely to head to China

Source ICIS industry

Company Location BZ Start up period

Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016

Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16

Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos

(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul

Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16

Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16

Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16

Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017

Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex

Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017

Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017

KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017

Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017

Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726

Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322

Product Company Location Capacity(kta)

BZ usage Start up period

SM

Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16

Donghao China 300 240 May-16

Phenol

PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16

Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16

Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17

PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017

Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017

CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17

CPL

Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16

China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16

Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16

MDI

Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017

Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017

Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017

Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972

Consumption within China in 2016 637 655

wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53

Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season

S Korea 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75

BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0

S Korea 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5

KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26

S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13

BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3

Japan 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36

Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12

BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0

Japan 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23

Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24

JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24

BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17

Source ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54

BZ demandBZ supply

bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China

bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ

bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene

bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units

bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher

bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure

bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed

bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand

Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55

Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom

Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom

Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom

Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom

wwwiciscom 56

Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets

Pricing information

- ButadieneC4s- Ethylene

Request your free sample report gtgt

We produce reliable price assessments and analyses covering Asian aromatics and olefins markets including price histories and a 12-month rolling price forecast enabling you to understand price drivers and settle your contract prices more confidently Our pricing coverage includes

- Mixed xylenes

- Propylene- Toluene

Real-time news serviceBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news including updates on plant capacities output and shutdowns

In-depth analysis of ChinaThe comprehensive studies on olefins and aromatics provide credible data and analysis to support your annual sales and strategy planning by giving you all of the following

- Comprehensive market overviews with detailed regional supply data and company profiles for 2013-2017

- In-depth downstream demand analysis and forecasts - Detailed import analysis between 2012-2014

Enquire about the annual studies

Request a free trial

Supply and demand data We give you an end-to-end perspective across the global petrochemical and refinery supply chain enabling you to grasp the local or regional scenario in a global context Data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2030

Request a free demo

- Benzene- Cumene- Paraxylene ndash Orthoxylene- Styrene

wwwiciscom 57

Bringing you faster more effective ways to improve productivity and decision making

Data ExpressAccess manage and analyse data easier than ever before with our Data Express solutions

bull Excel Plug-in - instantly update your worksheets in Excelbull API ndash stream the latest data directly to your systems

Set up email alerts for the most fluid markets to help you stay on top of market movements and enable you to react faster to price changes and other major developments

Market Alerts

Enquire about our market alerts

Build chart and track your formulas and keep them all in one place using real-time pricing data via the ICIS Dashboard

Formula Builder

Request a trial

Page 32: Asia Olefins & Aromatics Markets –A Turning of the Tide? · PDF fileBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news, ... Saudi Arabia 1,500 350 LDPE,1,080 solution PEQ2/mid 2016

wwwiciscom 33

Asiarsquos toluene and benzene trade flows

wwwiciscom 34

Drivers of Asiarsquos toluene trade flow

wwwiciscom 35wwwiciscom 35

Asiarsquos TOL prices still tracks PX but relationship may weaken on narrower TDP spreads wider toluene-naphtha gap

0

50

100

150

200

250

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

160002

-Jan

-201

422

-Jan

-201

412

-Feb

-201

404

-Mar

-201

424

-Mar

-201

411

-Apr

-201

401

-May

-201

421

-May

-201

410

-Jun

-201

430

-Jun

-201

418

-Jul

-201

407

-Aug

-201

427

-Aug

-201

416

-Sep

-201

406

-Oct

-201

424

-Oct

-201

413

-Nov

-201

403

-Dec

-201

423

-Dec

-201

421

-Jan

-201

510

-Feb

-201

504

-Mar

-201

524

-Mar

-201

513

-Apr

-201

504

-May

-201

522

-May

-201

511

-Jun

-201

501

-Jul

-201

521

-Jul

-201

511

-Aug

-201

531

-Aug

-201

518

-Sep

-201

508

-Oct

-201

528

-Oct

-201

517

-Nov

-201

507

-Dec

-201

504

-Jan

-201

622

-Jan

-201

615

-Feb

-201

604

-Mar

-201

624

-Mar

-201

6

TDP spread (U

SDtonne)

USD

tonn

e

TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Toluene FOB K PX CFR CN

CF 094

CF 095

CF = correlation factor

CF 092

CF= 093

Healthy margins prevailed in 2014 supporting the closer relationship between PX and TOL prices

Margins turned largely negative in 2015 weakening the relationship slightly Strong blend value (BV) of TOL had larger impact on prices

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 36wwwiciscom 36

Wider toluene-naphtha spread since end-2015 increased toluene selling impetus instead of downstream usage allocation

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400Price spread (U

SDtonne)

USD

tonn

e

Toluene-Naphtha spread Naphtha CFR Japan Toluene FOB South Korea

Heavy speculation low Chinese + Indian inventory healthy PX spread led to widened spread in Q1 2016

Price increases supported by start-up of UAC higher usage of TOL for TDP units in addition to summer blending season

Breakeven level

Ave = 230Ave = 170Ave = 170

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 37wwwiciscom 37

TOL heavily placed in blending pool in 2015 capping op rates of downstream TDPs 2016 situation may be reversed

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

USD

tonn

e

Toluene blend value Toluene FOB Korea prices

95-TOL CF= 090

Strong TOL BV in H1 of 2014 results in the price support from gasoline blending strengthening relationship between the two

FOB K prices consistently higher than BV difficult to find demand from blending pool

95-TOL CF= 06895-TOL CF= 090

TOL BV surpasses TOL FOB K making it possible to be placed into blending pool for most of 2015

CF = correlation factorSource ICIS

wwwiciscom 38wwwiciscom 38

Chinese inventories have heavy influence on buying interest Q1 shortage supported sellersrsquo decision to offload more TOL

Ave = 103kt Ave = 903kt Ave = 89kt

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

USD

tonne0

00 to

nnes

east China south China CFR China price Import parity price of CNY cargoes

Strong demand from gasoline blending sector and cargo delays result in 3-year low inventories

Period of strong demand

Previously overbought slow offtake after LNY

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 39

S Korearsquos importexport position for TOL dependent on TDP spreads switch in production strategies in Q1 2016

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

50

100

150

200

25003

-Jan

-201

424

-Jan

-201

414

-Feb

-201

407

-Mar

-201

428

-Mar

-201

418

-Apr

-201

409

-May

-201

430

-May

-201

420

-Jun

-201

411

-Jul

-201

401

-Aug

-201

422

-Aug

-201

412

-Sep

-201

403

-Oct

-201

424

-Oct

-201

414

-Nov

-201

405

-Dec

-201

426

-Dec

-201

423

-Jan

-201

513

-Feb

-201

506

-Mar

-201

527

-Mar

-201

517

-Apr

-201

508

-May

-201

529

-May

-201

519

-Jun

-201

510

-Jul

-201

531

-Jul

-201

521

-Aug

-201

511

-Sep

-201

502

-Oct

-201

523

-Oct

-201

513

-Nov

-201

504

-Dec

-201

525

-Dec

-201

522

-Jan

-201

612

-Feb

-201

604

-Mar

-201

625

-Mar

-201

615

-Apr

-201

6

Qty in lsquo000 tonnes

USD

tonn

e

TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Exports from S Korea Imports to S Korea

Start up of UACrsquos TDP

Slight strategy switch as low Chinese inventories strong naphtha-TOL spread since Q1 leads to stronger TOL selling interest

Overall drop in TDP spreads from mid-2014 results in selling interest switch to net exporter

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 40

Heavier downstream unit turnarounds and production adjustments led to more S Korea-origin exports

H1 2015 H1 2016

0

20

40

60

80

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Qty

in 0

00 to

nnes

South Korea exports

China Taiwan Vietnam US Japan Singapore India Others

Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 13 00Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 00 00 18 00Hyundai Cosmo TDP Daesan 00 00 00 50 200 00S Oil No 2 TDP Onsan 00 00 00 200 00 00

00 00 00 250 231 00Producer LocationLG Chem Daesan 00 00 23 23 00 00YNCC No 1 Yeosu 00 00 00 00 50 50Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 00 00 00 08 63 00Lotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 23 00 00S Oil No 2 Onsan 00 00 124 267 00 00SKGC Incheon 67 00 00 00 00 00

67 00 147 321 113 50

Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)

Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)

Source ICIS

Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 00 87Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 27 00 00 00OCI TDI Kunsan 00 06 00 00 00 00GSCX STDP Yeosu 00 00 00 583 82 00Hanwha Total TDP Daesan 00 00 222 278 00 00SKGC TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 00 49 208LG H D A Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38

38 45 288 899 169 333Producer Location Hanwha Total Daesan 00 00 153 191 00 00GSCX Yeosu 00 00 00 174 49 00Lotte Chem Yeosu 00 00 00 47 16 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 00 78 333YNCC Yeosu 00 00 33 17 00 00

00 00 186 428 143 333

Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)

Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)

wwwiciscom 41wwwiciscom 41

NE Asia and SE Asia exports to China rise since H2 2015 on healthy netbacks strong demand

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

USD

tonne

Qty

in 0

00 to

nnes

Others

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea

Import parity of domesticcargoesFOB South Korea prices

Increase in selling to China because of healthy netbacks weak TDP spread

Narrow gap results in fewer imports in line with FOB K price support from PX

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 42wwwiciscom 42

Exports from Asia to US market sporadic highly dependent on price gap gasoline blending season and Asia demand

0

10

20

30

40

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250Q

ty in 000 tonnesU

SDto

nne

Price gap (Asia prompt vs US forward) Exports from Asia to US

Open arbitrage opportunities result in increase of Asia exports

Consistent upward trend leads to selling interest

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 43wwwiciscom 43

India TOL imports mainly from SE Asia and Iran

46

23

17

37

4

2014

Singapore Thailand Iran S Korea Europe Others

2015

50

24

9

37

7

Source customs data

Total= 288kt Total= 288kt

wwwiciscom 44wwwiciscom 44

NE Asia TOL supply could outstrip demand in H2 2016 on heavier downstream turnarounds permanent shutdowns

H2 2015 H2 2016

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S Oil Onsan old TDP Onsan 00 42 42 00 00 00

00 42 42 00 00 00FCFC Aroma 2 TDP Mailiao 67 200 00 00 00 00

67 200 00 00 00 00JX Nippon Oil TDP Mizushima A 00 00 75 75 00 00

00 00 75 75 00 0067 242 117 75 00 00

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecLotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 73 25 00KPIC Ulsan 00 00 00 83 00 00S Oil No 1 Onsan 00 146 146 00 00 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 167 333 00OCI Yeosu 00 00 00 33 00 00

00 146 146 357 358 00Mitsui Chemicals Chiba 00 00 00 83 83 00JX Nippon Oil Mizushima A 00 00 117 233 00 00Tonen General Wakayama 00 00 00 69 92 00

00 00 117 385 175 00FCFC Aroma No 2 Mailiao 83 250 00 00 00 00CPC No 6 Kaohsiung 40 00 20 80 20 00CPC No3 Kaoshiung 00 00 00 00 83 55

123 250 20 80 103 55123 396 283 822 636 55

Est TOL consumption loss from KR

Est TOL consumption loss from TW

Est TOL production loss from KR

Total est consumption loss from NE Asia

Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia

CONSUMPTION (mt)

PRODUCTION (mt)

Est TOL consumption loss from JPN

Est TOL production loss from JPN

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUlsan Aromatics Center TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 1000 500 00SKGC TDP Incheon 00 00 00 83 42 00LG Chem H D A (shut since Jan) Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38

38 38 38 1122 580 38Taiyo Oil TDP cut rate only Kikuma 42 07 00 00 00 00MSNC TDI (shut since April) Omuta 65 65 65 65 65 65

107 72 65 65 65 65145 110 103 1187 645 103

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSKGC Incheon 00 00 00 133 67 00

00 00 00 133 67 00Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 00 00 108 108 00 00JFEC Chiba 00 00 14 42 00 00

00 00 122 150 00 00CPC No 7 Kaohsiung 00 00 00 27 108 00CPC No 3 Kaohsiung 110 00 00 00 00 00

110 00 00 27 108 00110 00 122 310 175 00

Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia

PRODUCTION (mt)

CONSUMPTION (mt)

Est TOL consumption loss from KR

Est TOL consumption loss from JPNTotal est consumption loss from NE Asia

Est TOL production loss from KR

Est TOL production loss from JPN

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016

Qty

in to

nnes

Total est consumption loss from NE Asia Total est production loss from NE AsiaSource ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45

Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance

Source ICIS

bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016

bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread

bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption

bull Improvements in TOL blend values

bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading

bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer

bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers

bull Other competitively priced blendstocks

bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL

bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China

TOL supply

TOL demand

Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors

wwwiciscom 46

Drivers of benzene trade flow

wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47

-60-40-200204060

500550600650700750800850900

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea

China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016

020000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000180000200000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Tonn

es

Others

MiddleEastThailand

Malaysia

Taiwan

Japan

SouthKorea

China imports

Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand

Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance

Strong appetite for imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48

Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

-

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

Pric

e ($

tonn

e)

Tonn

es

Shore tank inventories

E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity

2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite

Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains

Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49

-80-60-40-20020406080100

500550600650700750800850900950

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15

Tonn

es

OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea

Imports from Asia increase

Imports lower due to higher China prices

S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015

Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates

US imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50

Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600Ja

n-14

Feb-

14M

ar-1

4A

pr-1

4M

ay-1

4Ju

n-14

Jul-1

4A

ug-1

4Se

p-14

Oct

-14

Nov

-14

Dec

-14

Jan-

15Fe

b-15

Mar

-15

Apr

-15

May

-15

Jun-

15Ju

l-15

Aug

-15

Sep-

15O

ct-1

5N

ov-1

5D

ec-1

5Ja

n-16

Feb-

16M

ar-1

6A

pr-1

6

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)Naphtha-Benzene

Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene

$346t $193t $230t

wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51

S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32

Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300

SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15

YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37

2015 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25

S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25

SK Global Chem Incheon 200

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16

OthersTaiwanChinaUS

S Korea exports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52

Outlook increased supply likely to head to China

Source ICIS industry

Company Location BZ Start up period

Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016

Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16

Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos

(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul

Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16

Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16

Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16

Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017

Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex

Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017

Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017

KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017

Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017

Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726

Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322

Product Company Location Capacity(kta)

BZ usage Start up period

SM

Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16

Donghao China 300 240 May-16

Phenol

PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16

Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16

Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17

PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017

Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017

CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17

CPL

Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16

China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16

Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16

MDI

Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017

Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017

Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017

Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972

Consumption within China in 2016 637 655

wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53

Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season

S Korea 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75

BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0

S Korea 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5

KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26

S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13

BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3

Japan 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36

Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12

BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0

Japan 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23

Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24

JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24

BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17

Source ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54

BZ demandBZ supply

bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China

bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ

bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene

bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units

bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher

bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure

bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed

bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand

Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55

Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom

Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom

Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom

Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom

wwwiciscom 56

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Page 33: Asia Olefins & Aromatics Markets –A Turning of the Tide? · PDF fileBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news, ... Saudi Arabia 1,500 350 LDPE,1,080 solution PEQ2/mid 2016

wwwiciscom 34

Drivers of Asiarsquos toluene trade flow

wwwiciscom 35wwwiciscom 35

Asiarsquos TOL prices still tracks PX but relationship may weaken on narrower TDP spreads wider toluene-naphtha gap

0

50

100

150

200

250

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

160002

-Jan

-201

422

-Jan

-201

412

-Feb

-201

404

-Mar

-201

424

-Mar

-201

411

-Apr

-201

401

-May

-201

421

-May

-201

410

-Jun

-201

430

-Jun

-201

418

-Jul

-201

407

-Aug

-201

427

-Aug

-201

416

-Sep

-201

406

-Oct

-201

424

-Oct

-201

413

-Nov

-201

403

-Dec

-201

423

-Dec

-201

421

-Jan

-201

510

-Feb

-201

504

-Mar

-201

524

-Mar

-201

513

-Apr

-201

504

-May

-201

522

-May

-201

511

-Jun

-201

501

-Jul

-201

521

-Jul

-201

511

-Aug

-201

531

-Aug

-201

518

-Sep

-201

508

-Oct

-201

528

-Oct

-201

517

-Nov

-201

507

-Dec

-201

504

-Jan

-201

622

-Jan

-201

615

-Feb

-201

604

-Mar

-201

624

-Mar

-201

6

TDP spread (U

SDtonne)

USD

tonn

e

TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Toluene FOB K PX CFR CN

CF 094

CF 095

CF = correlation factor

CF 092

CF= 093

Healthy margins prevailed in 2014 supporting the closer relationship between PX and TOL prices

Margins turned largely negative in 2015 weakening the relationship slightly Strong blend value (BV) of TOL had larger impact on prices

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 36wwwiciscom 36

Wider toluene-naphtha spread since end-2015 increased toluene selling impetus instead of downstream usage allocation

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400Price spread (U

SDtonne)

USD

tonn

e

Toluene-Naphtha spread Naphtha CFR Japan Toluene FOB South Korea

Heavy speculation low Chinese + Indian inventory healthy PX spread led to widened spread in Q1 2016

Price increases supported by start-up of UAC higher usage of TOL for TDP units in addition to summer blending season

Breakeven level

Ave = 230Ave = 170Ave = 170

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 37wwwiciscom 37

TOL heavily placed in blending pool in 2015 capping op rates of downstream TDPs 2016 situation may be reversed

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

USD

tonn

e

Toluene blend value Toluene FOB Korea prices

95-TOL CF= 090

Strong TOL BV in H1 of 2014 results in the price support from gasoline blending strengthening relationship between the two

FOB K prices consistently higher than BV difficult to find demand from blending pool

95-TOL CF= 06895-TOL CF= 090

TOL BV surpasses TOL FOB K making it possible to be placed into blending pool for most of 2015

CF = correlation factorSource ICIS

wwwiciscom 38wwwiciscom 38

Chinese inventories have heavy influence on buying interest Q1 shortage supported sellersrsquo decision to offload more TOL

Ave = 103kt Ave = 903kt Ave = 89kt

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

USD

tonne0

00 to

nnes

east China south China CFR China price Import parity price of CNY cargoes

Strong demand from gasoline blending sector and cargo delays result in 3-year low inventories

Period of strong demand

Previously overbought slow offtake after LNY

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 39

S Korearsquos importexport position for TOL dependent on TDP spreads switch in production strategies in Q1 2016

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

50

100

150

200

25003

-Jan

-201

424

-Jan

-201

414

-Feb

-201

407

-Mar

-201

428

-Mar

-201

418

-Apr

-201

409

-May

-201

430

-May

-201

420

-Jun

-201

411

-Jul

-201

401

-Aug

-201

422

-Aug

-201

412

-Sep

-201

403

-Oct

-201

424

-Oct

-201

414

-Nov

-201

405

-Dec

-201

426

-Dec

-201

423

-Jan

-201

513

-Feb

-201

506

-Mar

-201

527

-Mar

-201

517

-Apr

-201

508

-May

-201

529

-May

-201

519

-Jun

-201

510

-Jul

-201

531

-Jul

-201

521

-Aug

-201

511

-Sep

-201

502

-Oct

-201

523

-Oct

-201

513

-Nov

-201

504

-Dec

-201

525

-Dec

-201

522

-Jan

-201

612

-Feb

-201

604

-Mar

-201

625

-Mar

-201

615

-Apr

-201

6

Qty in lsquo000 tonnes

USD

tonn

e

TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Exports from S Korea Imports to S Korea

Start up of UACrsquos TDP

Slight strategy switch as low Chinese inventories strong naphtha-TOL spread since Q1 leads to stronger TOL selling interest

Overall drop in TDP spreads from mid-2014 results in selling interest switch to net exporter

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 40

Heavier downstream unit turnarounds and production adjustments led to more S Korea-origin exports

H1 2015 H1 2016

0

20

40

60

80

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Qty

in 0

00 to

nnes

South Korea exports

China Taiwan Vietnam US Japan Singapore India Others

Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 13 00Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 00 00 18 00Hyundai Cosmo TDP Daesan 00 00 00 50 200 00S Oil No 2 TDP Onsan 00 00 00 200 00 00

00 00 00 250 231 00Producer LocationLG Chem Daesan 00 00 23 23 00 00YNCC No 1 Yeosu 00 00 00 00 50 50Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 00 00 00 08 63 00Lotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 23 00 00S Oil No 2 Onsan 00 00 124 267 00 00SKGC Incheon 67 00 00 00 00 00

67 00 147 321 113 50

Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)

Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)

Source ICIS

Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 00 87Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 27 00 00 00OCI TDI Kunsan 00 06 00 00 00 00GSCX STDP Yeosu 00 00 00 583 82 00Hanwha Total TDP Daesan 00 00 222 278 00 00SKGC TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 00 49 208LG H D A Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38

38 45 288 899 169 333Producer Location Hanwha Total Daesan 00 00 153 191 00 00GSCX Yeosu 00 00 00 174 49 00Lotte Chem Yeosu 00 00 00 47 16 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 00 78 333YNCC Yeosu 00 00 33 17 00 00

00 00 186 428 143 333

Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)

Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)

wwwiciscom 41wwwiciscom 41

NE Asia and SE Asia exports to China rise since H2 2015 on healthy netbacks strong demand

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

USD

tonne

Qty

in 0

00 to

nnes

Others

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea

Import parity of domesticcargoesFOB South Korea prices

Increase in selling to China because of healthy netbacks weak TDP spread

Narrow gap results in fewer imports in line with FOB K price support from PX

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 42wwwiciscom 42

Exports from Asia to US market sporadic highly dependent on price gap gasoline blending season and Asia demand

0

10

20

30

40

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250Q

ty in 000 tonnesU

SDto

nne

Price gap (Asia prompt vs US forward) Exports from Asia to US

Open arbitrage opportunities result in increase of Asia exports

Consistent upward trend leads to selling interest

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 43wwwiciscom 43

India TOL imports mainly from SE Asia and Iran

46

23

17

37

4

2014

Singapore Thailand Iran S Korea Europe Others

2015

50

24

9

37

7

Source customs data

Total= 288kt Total= 288kt

wwwiciscom 44wwwiciscom 44

NE Asia TOL supply could outstrip demand in H2 2016 on heavier downstream turnarounds permanent shutdowns

H2 2015 H2 2016

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S Oil Onsan old TDP Onsan 00 42 42 00 00 00

00 42 42 00 00 00FCFC Aroma 2 TDP Mailiao 67 200 00 00 00 00

67 200 00 00 00 00JX Nippon Oil TDP Mizushima A 00 00 75 75 00 00

00 00 75 75 00 0067 242 117 75 00 00

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecLotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 73 25 00KPIC Ulsan 00 00 00 83 00 00S Oil No 1 Onsan 00 146 146 00 00 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 167 333 00OCI Yeosu 00 00 00 33 00 00

00 146 146 357 358 00Mitsui Chemicals Chiba 00 00 00 83 83 00JX Nippon Oil Mizushima A 00 00 117 233 00 00Tonen General Wakayama 00 00 00 69 92 00

00 00 117 385 175 00FCFC Aroma No 2 Mailiao 83 250 00 00 00 00CPC No 6 Kaohsiung 40 00 20 80 20 00CPC No3 Kaoshiung 00 00 00 00 83 55

123 250 20 80 103 55123 396 283 822 636 55

Est TOL consumption loss from KR

Est TOL consumption loss from TW

Est TOL production loss from KR

Total est consumption loss from NE Asia

Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia

CONSUMPTION (mt)

PRODUCTION (mt)

Est TOL consumption loss from JPN

Est TOL production loss from JPN

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUlsan Aromatics Center TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 1000 500 00SKGC TDP Incheon 00 00 00 83 42 00LG Chem H D A (shut since Jan) Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38

38 38 38 1122 580 38Taiyo Oil TDP cut rate only Kikuma 42 07 00 00 00 00MSNC TDI (shut since April) Omuta 65 65 65 65 65 65

107 72 65 65 65 65145 110 103 1187 645 103

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSKGC Incheon 00 00 00 133 67 00

00 00 00 133 67 00Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 00 00 108 108 00 00JFEC Chiba 00 00 14 42 00 00

00 00 122 150 00 00CPC No 7 Kaohsiung 00 00 00 27 108 00CPC No 3 Kaohsiung 110 00 00 00 00 00

110 00 00 27 108 00110 00 122 310 175 00

Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia

PRODUCTION (mt)

CONSUMPTION (mt)

Est TOL consumption loss from KR

Est TOL consumption loss from JPNTotal est consumption loss from NE Asia

Est TOL production loss from KR

Est TOL production loss from JPN

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016

Qty

in to

nnes

Total est consumption loss from NE Asia Total est production loss from NE AsiaSource ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45

Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance

Source ICIS

bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016

bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread

bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption

bull Improvements in TOL blend values

bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading

bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer

bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers

bull Other competitively priced blendstocks

bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL

bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China

TOL supply

TOL demand

Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors

wwwiciscom 46

Drivers of benzene trade flow

wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47

-60-40-200204060

500550600650700750800850900

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea

China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016

020000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000180000200000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Tonn

es

Others

MiddleEastThailand

Malaysia

Taiwan

Japan

SouthKorea

China imports

Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand

Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance

Strong appetite for imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48

Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

-

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

Pric

e ($

tonn

e)

Tonn

es

Shore tank inventories

E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity

2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite

Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains

Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49

-80-60-40-20020406080100

500550600650700750800850900950

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15

Tonn

es

OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea

Imports from Asia increase

Imports lower due to higher China prices

S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015

Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates

US imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50

Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600Ja

n-14

Feb-

14M

ar-1

4A

pr-1

4M

ay-1

4Ju

n-14

Jul-1

4A

ug-1

4Se

p-14

Oct

-14

Nov

-14

Dec

-14

Jan-

15Fe

b-15

Mar

-15

Apr

-15

May

-15

Jun-

15Ju

l-15

Aug

-15

Sep-

15O

ct-1

5N

ov-1

5D

ec-1

5Ja

n-16

Feb-

16M

ar-1

6A

pr-1

6

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)Naphtha-Benzene

Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene

$346t $193t $230t

wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51

S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32

Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300

SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15

YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37

2015 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25

S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25

SK Global Chem Incheon 200

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16

OthersTaiwanChinaUS

S Korea exports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52

Outlook increased supply likely to head to China

Source ICIS industry

Company Location BZ Start up period

Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016

Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16

Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos

(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul

Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16

Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16

Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16

Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017

Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex

Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017

Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017

KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017

Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017

Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726

Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322

Product Company Location Capacity(kta)

BZ usage Start up period

SM

Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16

Donghao China 300 240 May-16

Phenol

PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16

Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16

Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17

PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017

Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017

CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17

CPL

Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16

China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16

Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16

MDI

Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017

Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017

Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017

Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972

Consumption within China in 2016 637 655

wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53

Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season

S Korea 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75

BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0

S Korea 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5

KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26

S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13

BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3

Japan 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36

Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12

BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0

Japan 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23

Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24

JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24

BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17

Source ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54

BZ demandBZ supply

bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China

bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ

bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene

bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units

bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher

bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure

bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed

bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand

Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55

Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom

Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom

Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom

Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom

wwwiciscom 56

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wwwiciscom 57

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Page 34: Asia Olefins & Aromatics Markets –A Turning of the Tide? · PDF fileBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news, ... Saudi Arabia 1,500 350 LDPE,1,080 solution PEQ2/mid 2016

wwwiciscom 35wwwiciscom 35

Asiarsquos TOL prices still tracks PX but relationship may weaken on narrower TDP spreads wider toluene-naphtha gap

0

50

100

150

200

250

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

160002

-Jan

-201

422

-Jan

-201

412

-Feb

-201

404

-Mar

-201

424

-Mar

-201

411

-Apr

-201

401

-May

-201

421

-May

-201

410

-Jun

-201

430

-Jun

-201

418

-Jul

-201

407

-Aug

-201

427

-Aug

-201

416

-Sep

-201

406

-Oct

-201

424

-Oct

-201

413

-Nov

-201

403

-Dec

-201

423

-Dec

-201

421

-Jan

-201

510

-Feb

-201

504

-Mar

-201

524

-Mar

-201

513

-Apr

-201

504

-May

-201

522

-May

-201

511

-Jun

-201

501

-Jul

-201

521

-Jul

-201

511

-Aug

-201

531

-Aug

-201

518

-Sep

-201

508

-Oct

-201

528

-Oct

-201

517

-Nov

-201

507

-Dec

-201

504

-Jan

-201

622

-Jan

-201

615

-Feb

-201

604

-Mar

-201

624

-Mar

-201

6

TDP spread (U

SDtonne)

USD

tonn

e

TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Toluene FOB K PX CFR CN

CF 094

CF 095

CF = correlation factor

CF 092

CF= 093

Healthy margins prevailed in 2014 supporting the closer relationship between PX and TOL prices

Margins turned largely negative in 2015 weakening the relationship slightly Strong blend value (BV) of TOL had larger impact on prices

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 36wwwiciscom 36

Wider toluene-naphtha spread since end-2015 increased toluene selling impetus instead of downstream usage allocation

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400Price spread (U

SDtonne)

USD

tonn

e

Toluene-Naphtha spread Naphtha CFR Japan Toluene FOB South Korea

Heavy speculation low Chinese + Indian inventory healthy PX spread led to widened spread in Q1 2016

Price increases supported by start-up of UAC higher usage of TOL for TDP units in addition to summer blending season

Breakeven level

Ave = 230Ave = 170Ave = 170

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 37wwwiciscom 37

TOL heavily placed in blending pool in 2015 capping op rates of downstream TDPs 2016 situation may be reversed

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

USD

tonn

e

Toluene blend value Toluene FOB Korea prices

95-TOL CF= 090

Strong TOL BV in H1 of 2014 results in the price support from gasoline blending strengthening relationship between the two

FOB K prices consistently higher than BV difficult to find demand from blending pool

95-TOL CF= 06895-TOL CF= 090

TOL BV surpasses TOL FOB K making it possible to be placed into blending pool for most of 2015

CF = correlation factorSource ICIS

wwwiciscom 38wwwiciscom 38

Chinese inventories have heavy influence on buying interest Q1 shortage supported sellersrsquo decision to offload more TOL

Ave = 103kt Ave = 903kt Ave = 89kt

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

USD

tonne0

00 to

nnes

east China south China CFR China price Import parity price of CNY cargoes

Strong demand from gasoline blending sector and cargo delays result in 3-year low inventories

Period of strong demand

Previously overbought slow offtake after LNY

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 39

S Korearsquos importexport position for TOL dependent on TDP spreads switch in production strategies in Q1 2016

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

50

100

150

200

25003

-Jan

-201

424

-Jan

-201

414

-Feb

-201

407

-Mar

-201

428

-Mar

-201

418

-Apr

-201

409

-May

-201

430

-May

-201

420

-Jun

-201

411

-Jul

-201

401

-Aug

-201

422

-Aug

-201

412

-Sep

-201

403

-Oct

-201

424

-Oct

-201

414

-Nov

-201

405

-Dec

-201

426

-Dec

-201

423

-Jan

-201

513

-Feb

-201

506

-Mar

-201

527

-Mar

-201

517

-Apr

-201

508

-May

-201

529

-May

-201

519

-Jun

-201

510

-Jul

-201

531

-Jul

-201

521

-Aug

-201

511

-Sep

-201

502

-Oct

-201

523

-Oct

-201

513

-Nov

-201

504

-Dec

-201

525

-Dec

-201

522

-Jan

-201

612

-Feb

-201

604

-Mar

-201

625

-Mar

-201

615

-Apr

-201

6

Qty in lsquo000 tonnes

USD

tonn

e

TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Exports from S Korea Imports to S Korea

Start up of UACrsquos TDP

Slight strategy switch as low Chinese inventories strong naphtha-TOL spread since Q1 leads to stronger TOL selling interest

Overall drop in TDP spreads from mid-2014 results in selling interest switch to net exporter

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 40

Heavier downstream unit turnarounds and production adjustments led to more S Korea-origin exports

H1 2015 H1 2016

0

20

40

60

80

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Qty

in 0

00 to

nnes

South Korea exports

China Taiwan Vietnam US Japan Singapore India Others

Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 13 00Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 00 00 18 00Hyundai Cosmo TDP Daesan 00 00 00 50 200 00S Oil No 2 TDP Onsan 00 00 00 200 00 00

00 00 00 250 231 00Producer LocationLG Chem Daesan 00 00 23 23 00 00YNCC No 1 Yeosu 00 00 00 00 50 50Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 00 00 00 08 63 00Lotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 23 00 00S Oil No 2 Onsan 00 00 124 267 00 00SKGC Incheon 67 00 00 00 00 00

67 00 147 321 113 50

Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)

Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)

Source ICIS

Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 00 87Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 27 00 00 00OCI TDI Kunsan 00 06 00 00 00 00GSCX STDP Yeosu 00 00 00 583 82 00Hanwha Total TDP Daesan 00 00 222 278 00 00SKGC TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 00 49 208LG H D A Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38

38 45 288 899 169 333Producer Location Hanwha Total Daesan 00 00 153 191 00 00GSCX Yeosu 00 00 00 174 49 00Lotte Chem Yeosu 00 00 00 47 16 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 00 78 333YNCC Yeosu 00 00 33 17 00 00

00 00 186 428 143 333

Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)

Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)

wwwiciscom 41wwwiciscom 41

NE Asia and SE Asia exports to China rise since H2 2015 on healthy netbacks strong demand

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

USD

tonne

Qty

in 0

00 to

nnes

Others

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea

Import parity of domesticcargoesFOB South Korea prices

Increase in selling to China because of healthy netbacks weak TDP spread

Narrow gap results in fewer imports in line with FOB K price support from PX

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 42wwwiciscom 42

Exports from Asia to US market sporadic highly dependent on price gap gasoline blending season and Asia demand

0

10

20

30

40

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250Q

ty in 000 tonnesU

SDto

nne

Price gap (Asia prompt vs US forward) Exports from Asia to US

Open arbitrage opportunities result in increase of Asia exports

Consistent upward trend leads to selling interest

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 43wwwiciscom 43

India TOL imports mainly from SE Asia and Iran

46

23

17

37

4

2014

Singapore Thailand Iran S Korea Europe Others

2015

50

24

9

37

7

Source customs data

Total= 288kt Total= 288kt

wwwiciscom 44wwwiciscom 44

NE Asia TOL supply could outstrip demand in H2 2016 on heavier downstream turnarounds permanent shutdowns

H2 2015 H2 2016

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S Oil Onsan old TDP Onsan 00 42 42 00 00 00

00 42 42 00 00 00FCFC Aroma 2 TDP Mailiao 67 200 00 00 00 00

67 200 00 00 00 00JX Nippon Oil TDP Mizushima A 00 00 75 75 00 00

00 00 75 75 00 0067 242 117 75 00 00

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecLotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 73 25 00KPIC Ulsan 00 00 00 83 00 00S Oil No 1 Onsan 00 146 146 00 00 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 167 333 00OCI Yeosu 00 00 00 33 00 00

00 146 146 357 358 00Mitsui Chemicals Chiba 00 00 00 83 83 00JX Nippon Oil Mizushima A 00 00 117 233 00 00Tonen General Wakayama 00 00 00 69 92 00

00 00 117 385 175 00FCFC Aroma No 2 Mailiao 83 250 00 00 00 00CPC No 6 Kaohsiung 40 00 20 80 20 00CPC No3 Kaoshiung 00 00 00 00 83 55

123 250 20 80 103 55123 396 283 822 636 55

Est TOL consumption loss from KR

Est TOL consumption loss from TW

Est TOL production loss from KR

Total est consumption loss from NE Asia

Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia

CONSUMPTION (mt)

PRODUCTION (mt)

Est TOL consumption loss from JPN

Est TOL production loss from JPN

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUlsan Aromatics Center TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 1000 500 00SKGC TDP Incheon 00 00 00 83 42 00LG Chem H D A (shut since Jan) Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38

38 38 38 1122 580 38Taiyo Oil TDP cut rate only Kikuma 42 07 00 00 00 00MSNC TDI (shut since April) Omuta 65 65 65 65 65 65

107 72 65 65 65 65145 110 103 1187 645 103

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSKGC Incheon 00 00 00 133 67 00

00 00 00 133 67 00Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 00 00 108 108 00 00JFEC Chiba 00 00 14 42 00 00

00 00 122 150 00 00CPC No 7 Kaohsiung 00 00 00 27 108 00CPC No 3 Kaohsiung 110 00 00 00 00 00

110 00 00 27 108 00110 00 122 310 175 00

Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia

PRODUCTION (mt)

CONSUMPTION (mt)

Est TOL consumption loss from KR

Est TOL consumption loss from JPNTotal est consumption loss from NE Asia

Est TOL production loss from KR

Est TOL production loss from JPN

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016

Qty

in to

nnes

Total est consumption loss from NE Asia Total est production loss from NE AsiaSource ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45

Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance

Source ICIS

bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016

bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread

bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption

bull Improvements in TOL blend values

bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading

bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer

bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers

bull Other competitively priced blendstocks

bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL

bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China

TOL supply

TOL demand

Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors

wwwiciscom 46

Drivers of benzene trade flow

wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47

-60-40-200204060

500550600650700750800850900

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea

China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016

020000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000180000200000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Tonn

es

Others

MiddleEastThailand

Malaysia

Taiwan

Japan

SouthKorea

China imports

Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand

Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance

Strong appetite for imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48

Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

-

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

Pric

e ($

tonn

e)

Tonn

es

Shore tank inventories

E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity

2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite

Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains

Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49

-80-60-40-20020406080100

500550600650700750800850900950

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15

Tonn

es

OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea

Imports from Asia increase

Imports lower due to higher China prices

S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015

Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates

US imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50

Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600Ja

n-14

Feb-

14M

ar-1

4A

pr-1

4M

ay-1

4Ju

n-14

Jul-1

4A

ug-1

4Se

p-14

Oct

-14

Nov

-14

Dec

-14

Jan-

15Fe

b-15

Mar

-15

Apr

-15

May

-15

Jun-

15Ju

l-15

Aug

-15

Sep-

15O

ct-1

5N

ov-1

5D

ec-1

5Ja

n-16

Feb-

16M

ar-1

6A

pr-1

6

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)Naphtha-Benzene

Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene

$346t $193t $230t

wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51

S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32

Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300

SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15

YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37

2015 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25

S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25

SK Global Chem Incheon 200

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16

OthersTaiwanChinaUS

S Korea exports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52

Outlook increased supply likely to head to China

Source ICIS industry

Company Location BZ Start up period

Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016

Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16

Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos

(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul

Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16

Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16

Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16

Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017

Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex

Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017

Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017

KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017

Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017

Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726

Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322

Product Company Location Capacity(kta)

BZ usage Start up period

SM

Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16

Donghao China 300 240 May-16

Phenol

PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16

Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16

Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17

PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017

Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017

CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17

CPL

Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16

China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16

Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16

MDI

Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017

Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017

Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017

Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972

Consumption within China in 2016 637 655

wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53

Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season

S Korea 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75

BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0

S Korea 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5

KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26

S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13

BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3

Japan 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36

Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12

BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0

Japan 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23

Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24

JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24

BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17

Source ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54

BZ demandBZ supply

bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China

bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ

bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene

bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units

bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher

bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure

bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed

bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand

Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55

Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom

Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom

Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom

Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom

wwwiciscom 56

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wwwiciscom 57

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Page 35: Asia Olefins & Aromatics Markets –A Turning of the Tide? · PDF fileBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news, ... Saudi Arabia 1,500 350 LDPE,1,080 solution PEQ2/mid 2016

wwwiciscom 36wwwiciscom 36

Wider toluene-naphtha spread since end-2015 increased toluene selling impetus instead of downstream usage allocation

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400Price spread (U

SDtonne)

USD

tonn

e

Toluene-Naphtha spread Naphtha CFR Japan Toluene FOB South Korea

Heavy speculation low Chinese + Indian inventory healthy PX spread led to widened spread in Q1 2016

Price increases supported by start-up of UAC higher usage of TOL for TDP units in addition to summer blending season

Breakeven level

Ave = 230Ave = 170Ave = 170

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 37wwwiciscom 37

TOL heavily placed in blending pool in 2015 capping op rates of downstream TDPs 2016 situation may be reversed

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

USD

tonn

e

Toluene blend value Toluene FOB Korea prices

95-TOL CF= 090

Strong TOL BV in H1 of 2014 results in the price support from gasoline blending strengthening relationship between the two

FOB K prices consistently higher than BV difficult to find demand from blending pool

95-TOL CF= 06895-TOL CF= 090

TOL BV surpasses TOL FOB K making it possible to be placed into blending pool for most of 2015

CF = correlation factorSource ICIS

wwwiciscom 38wwwiciscom 38

Chinese inventories have heavy influence on buying interest Q1 shortage supported sellersrsquo decision to offload more TOL

Ave = 103kt Ave = 903kt Ave = 89kt

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

USD

tonne0

00 to

nnes

east China south China CFR China price Import parity price of CNY cargoes

Strong demand from gasoline blending sector and cargo delays result in 3-year low inventories

Period of strong demand

Previously overbought slow offtake after LNY

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 39

S Korearsquos importexport position for TOL dependent on TDP spreads switch in production strategies in Q1 2016

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

50

100

150

200

25003

-Jan

-201

424

-Jan

-201

414

-Feb

-201

407

-Mar

-201

428

-Mar

-201

418

-Apr

-201

409

-May

-201

430

-May

-201

420

-Jun

-201

411

-Jul

-201

401

-Aug

-201

422

-Aug

-201

412

-Sep

-201

403

-Oct

-201

424

-Oct

-201

414

-Nov

-201

405

-Dec

-201

426

-Dec

-201

423

-Jan

-201

513

-Feb

-201

506

-Mar

-201

527

-Mar

-201

517

-Apr

-201

508

-May

-201

529

-May

-201

519

-Jun

-201

510

-Jul

-201

531

-Jul

-201

521

-Aug

-201

511

-Sep

-201

502

-Oct

-201

523

-Oct

-201

513

-Nov

-201

504

-Dec

-201

525

-Dec

-201

522

-Jan

-201

612

-Feb

-201

604

-Mar

-201

625

-Mar

-201

615

-Apr

-201

6

Qty in lsquo000 tonnes

USD

tonn

e

TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Exports from S Korea Imports to S Korea

Start up of UACrsquos TDP

Slight strategy switch as low Chinese inventories strong naphtha-TOL spread since Q1 leads to stronger TOL selling interest

Overall drop in TDP spreads from mid-2014 results in selling interest switch to net exporter

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 40

Heavier downstream unit turnarounds and production adjustments led to more S Korea-origin exports

H1 2015 H1 2016

0

20

40

60

80

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Qty

in 0

00 to

nnes

South Korea exports

China Taiwan Vietnam US Japan Singapore India Others

Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 13 00Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 00 00 18 00Hyundai Cosmo TDP Daesan 00 00 00 50 200 00S Oil No 2 TDP Onsan 00 00 00 200 00 00

00 00 00 250 231 00Producer LocationLG Chem Daesan 00 00 23 23 00 00YNCC No 1 Yeosu 00 00 00 00 50 50Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 00 00 00 08 63 00Lotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 23 00 00S Oil No 2 Onsan 00 00 124 267 00 00SKGC Incheon 67 00 00 00 00 00

67 00 147 321 113 50

Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)

Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)

Source ICIS

Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 00 87Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 27 00 00 00OCI TDI Kunsan 00 06 00 00 00 00GSCX STDP Yeosu 00 00 00 583 82 00Hanwha Total TDP Daesan 00 00 222 278 00 00SKGC TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 00 49 208LG H D A Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38

38 45 288 899 169 333Producer Location Hanwha Total Daesan 00 00 153 191 00 00GSCX Yeosu 00 00 00 174 49 00Lotte Chem Yeosu 00 00 00 47 16 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 00 78 333YNCC Yeosu 00 00 33 17 00 00

00 00 186 428 143 333

Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)

Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)

wwwiciscom 41wwwiciscom 41

NE Asia and SE Asia exports to China rise since H2 2015 on healthy netbacks strong demand

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

USD

tonne

Qty

in 0

00 to

nnes

Others

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea

Import parity of domesticcargoesFOB South Korea prices

Increase in selling to China because of healthy netbacks weak TDP spread

Narrow gap results in fewer imports in line with FOB K price support from PX

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 42wwwiciscom 42

Exports from Asia to US market sporadic highly dependent on price gap gasoline blending season and Asia demand

0

10

20

30

40

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250Q

ty in 000 tonnesU

SDto

nne

Price gap (Asia prompt vs US forward) Exports from Asia to US

Open arbitrage opportunities result in increase of Asia exports

Consistent upward trend leads to selling interest

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 43wwwiciscom 43

India TOL imports mainly from SE Asia and Iran

46

23

17

37

4

2014

Singapore Thailand Iran S Korea Europe Others

2015

50

24

9

37

7

Source customs data

Total= 288kt Total= 288kt

wwwiciscom 44wwwiciscom 44

NE Asia TOL supply could outstrip demand in H2 2016 on heavier downstream turnarounds permanent shutdowns

H2 2015 H2 2016

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S Oil Onsan old TDP Onsan 00 42 42 00 00 00

00 42 42 00 00 00FCFC Aroma 2 TDP Mailiao 67 200 00 00 00 00

67 200 00 00 00 00JX Nippon Oil TDP Mizushima A 00 00 75 75 00 00

00 00 75 75 00 0067 242 117 75 00 00

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecLotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 73 25 00KPIC Ulsan 00 00 00 83 00 00S Oil No 1 Onsan 00 146 146 00 00 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 167 333 00OCI Yeosu 00 00 00 33 00 00

00 146 146 357 358 00Mitsui Chemicals Chiba 00 00 00 83 83 00JX Nippon Oil Mizushima A 00 00 117 233 00 00Tonen General Wakayama 00 00 00 69 92 00

00 00 117 385 175 00FCFC Aroma No 2 Mailiao 83 250 00 00 00 00CPC No 6 Kaohsiung 40 00 20 80 20 00CPC No3 Kaoshiung 00 00 00 00 83 55

123 250 20 80 103 55123 396 283 822 636 55

Est TOL consumption loss from KR

Est TOL consumption loss from TW

Est TOL production loss from KR

Total est consumption loss from NE Asia

Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia

CONSUMPTION (mt)

PRODUCTION (mt)

Est TOL consumption loss from JPN

Est TOL production loss from JPN

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUlsan Aromatics Center TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 1000 500 00SKGC TDP Incheon 00 00 00 83 42 00LG Chem H D A (shut since Jan) Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38

38 38 38 1122 580 38Taiyo Oil TDP cut rate only Kikuma 42 07 00 00 00 00MSNC TDI (shut since April) Omuta 65 65 65 65 65 65

107 72 65 65 65 65145 110 103 1187 645 103

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSKGC Incheon 00 00 00 133 67 00

00 00 00 133 67 00Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 00 00 108 108 00 00JFEC Chiba 00 00 14 42 00 00

00 00 122 150 00 00CPC No 7 Kaohsiung 00 00 00 27 108 00CPC No 3 Kaohsiung 110 00 00 00 00 00

110 00 00 27 108 00110 00 122 310 175 00

Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia

PRODUCTION (mt)

CONSUMPTION (mt)

Est TOL consumption loss from KR

Est TOL consumption loss from JPNTotal est consumption loss from NE Asia

Est TOL production loss from KR

Est TOL production loss from JPN

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016

Qty

in to

nnes

Total est consumption loss from NE Asia Total est production loss from NE AsiaSource ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45

Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance

Source ICIS

bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016

bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread

bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption

bull Improvements in TOL blend values

bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading

bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer

bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers

bull Other competitively priced blendstocks

bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL

bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China

TOL supply

TOL demand

Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors

wwwiciscom 46

Drivers of benzene trade flow

wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47

-60-40-200204060

500550600650700750800850900

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea

China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016

020000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000180000200000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Tonn

es

Others

MiddleEastThailand

Malaysia

Taiwan

Japan

SouthKorea

China imports

Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand

Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance

Strong appetite for imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48

Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

-

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

Pric

e ($

tonn

e)

Tonn

es

Shore tank inventories

E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity

2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite

Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains

Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49

-80-60-40-20020406080100

500550600650700750800850900950

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15

Tonn

es

OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea

Imports from Asia increase

Imports lower due to higher China prices

S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015

Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates

US imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50

Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600Ja

n-14

Feb-

14M

ar-1

4A

pr-1

4M

ay-1

4Ju

n-14

Jul-1

4A

ug-1

4Se

p-14

Oct

-14

Nov

-14

Dec

-14

Jan-

15Fe

b-15

Mar

-15

Apr

-15

May

-15

Jun-

15Ju

l-15

Aug

-15

Sep-

15O

ct-1

5N

ov-1

5D

ec-1

5Ja

n-16

Feb-

16M

ar-1

6A

pr-1

6

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)Naphtha-Benzene

Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene

$346t $193t $230t

wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51

S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32

Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300

SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15

YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37

2015 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25

S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25

SK Global Chem Incheon 200

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16

OthersTaiwanChinaUS

S Korea exports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52

Outlook increased supply likely to head to China

Source ICIS industry

Company Location BZ Start up period

Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016

Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16

Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos

(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul

Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16

Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16

Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16

Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017

Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex

Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017

Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017

KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017

Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017

Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726

Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322

Product Company Location Capacity(kta)

BZ usage Start up period

SM

Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16

Donghao China 300 240 May-16

Phenol

PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16

Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16

Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17

PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017

Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017

CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17

CPL

Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16

China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16

Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16

MDI

Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017

Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017

Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017

Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972

Consumption within China in 2016 637 655

wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53

Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season

S Korea 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75

BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0

S Korea 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5

KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26

S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13

BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3

Japan 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36

Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12

BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0

Japan 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23

Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24

JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24

BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17

Source ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54

BZ demandBZ supply

bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China

bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ

bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene

bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units

bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher

bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure

bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed

bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand

Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55

Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom

Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom

Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom

Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom

wwwiciscom 56

Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets

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wwwiciscom 57

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Page 36: Asia Olefins & Aromatics Markets –A Turning of the Tide? · PDF fileBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news, ... Saudi Arabia 1,500 350 LDPE,1,080 solution PEQ2/mid 2016

wwwiciscom 37wwwiciscom 37

TOL heavily placed in blending pool in 2015 capping op rates of downstream TDPs 2016 situation may be reversed

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

USD

tonn

e

Toluene blend value Toluene FOB Korea prices

95-TOL CF= 090

Strong TOL BV in H1 of 2014 results in the price support from gasoline blending strengthening relationship between the two

FOB K prices consistently higher than BV difficult to find demand from blending pool

95-TOL CF= 06895-TOL CF= 090

TOL BV surpasses TOL FOB K making it possible to be placed into blending pool for most of 2015

CF = correlation factorSource ICIS

wwwiciscom 38wwwiciscom 38

Chinese inventories have heavy influence on buying interest Q1 shortage supported sellersrsquo decision to offload more TOL

Ave = 103kt Ave = 903kt Ave = 89kt

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

USD

tonne0

00 to

nnes

east China south China CFR China price Import parity price of CNY cargoes

Strong demand from gasoline blending sector and cargo delays result in 3-year low inventories

Period of strong demand

Previously overbought slow offtake after LNY

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 39

S Korearsquos importexport position for TOL dependent on TDP spreads switch in production strategies in Q1 2016

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

50

100

150

200

25003

-Jan

-201

424

-Jan

-201

414

-Feb

-201

407

-Mar

-201

428

-Mar

-201

418

-Apr

-201

409

-May

-201

430

-May

-201

420

-Jun

-201

411

-Jul

-201

401

-Aug

-201

422

-Aug

-201

412

-Sep

-201

403

-Oct

-201

424

-Oct

-201

414

-Nov

-201

405

-Dec

-201

426

-Dec

-201

423

-Jan

-201

513

-Feb

-201

506

-Mar

-201

527

-Mar

-201

517

-Apr

-201

508

-May

-201

529

-May

-201

519

-Jun

-201

510

-Jul

-201

531

-Jul

-201

521

-Aug

-201

511

-Sep

-201

502

-Oct

-201

523

-Oct

-201

513

-Nov

-201

504

-Dec

-201

525

-Dec

-201

522

-Jan

-201

612

-Feb

-201

604

-Mar

-201

625

-Mar

-201

615

-Apr

-201

6

Qty in lsquo000 tonnes

USD

tonn

e

TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Exports from S Korea Imports to S Korea

Start up of UACrsquos TDP

Slight strategy switch as low Chinese inventories strong naphtha-TOL spread since Q1 leads to stronger TOL selling interest

Overall drop in TDP spreads from mid-2014 results in selling interest switch to net exporter

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 40

Heavier downstream unit turnarounds and production adjustments led to more S Korea-origin exports

H1 2015 H1 2016

0

20

40

60

80

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Qty

in 0

00 to

nnes

South Korea exports

China Taiwan Vietnam US Japan Singapore India Others

Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 13 00Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 00 00 18 00Hyundai Cosmo TDP Daesan 00 00 00 50 200 00S Oil No 2 TDP Onsan 00 00 00 200 00 00

00 00 00 250 231 00Producer LocationLG Chem Daesan 00 00 23 23 00 00YNCC No 1 Yeosu 00 00 00 00 50 50Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 00 00 00 08 63 00Lotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 23 00 00S Oil No 2 Onsan 00 00 124 267 00 00SKGC Incheon 67 00 00 00 00 00

67 00 147 321 113 50

Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)

Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)

Source ICIS

Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 00 87Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 27 00 00 00OCI TDI Kunsan 00 06 00 00 00 00GSCX STDP Yeosu 00 00 00 583 82 00Hanwha Total TDP Daesan 00 00 222 278 00 00SKGC TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 00 49 208LG H D A Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38

38 45 288 899 169 333Producer Location Hanwha Total Daesan 00 00 153 191 00 00GSCX Yeosu 00 00 00 174 49 00Lotte Chem Yeosu 00 00 00 47 16 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 00 78 333YNCC Yeosu 00 00 33 17 00 00

00 00 186 428 143 333

Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)

Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)

wwwiciscom 41wwwiciscom 41

NE Asia and SE Asia exports to China rise since H2 2015 on healthy netbacks strong demand

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

USD

tonne

Qty

in 0

00 to

nnes

Others

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea

Import parity of domesticcargoesFOB South Korea prices

Increase in selling to China because of healthy netbacks weak TDP spread

Narrow gap results in fewer imports in line with FOB K price support from PX

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 42wwwiciscom 42

Exports from Asia to US market sporadic highly dependent on price gap gasoline blending season and Asia demand

0

10

20

30

40

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250Q

ty in 000 tonnesU

SDto

nne

Price gap (Asia prompt vs US forward) Exports from Asia to US

Open arbitrage opportunities result in increase of Asia exports

Consistent upward trend leads to selling interest

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 43wwwiciscom 43

India TOL imports mainly from SE Asia and Iran

46

23

17

37

4

2014

Singapore Thailand Iran S Korea Europe Others

2015

50

24

9

37

7

Source customs data

Total= 288kt Total= 288kt

wwwiciscom 44wwwiciscom 44

NE Asia TOL supply could outstrip demand in H2 2016 on heavier downstream turnarounds permanent shutdowns

H2 2015 H2 2016

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S Oil Onsan old TDP Onsan 00 42 42 00 00 00

00 42 42 00 00 00FCFC Aroma 2 TDP Mailiao 67 200 00 00 00 00

67 200 00 00 00 00JX Nippon Oil TDP Mizushima A 00 00 75 75 00 00

00 00 75 75 00 0067 242 117 75 00 00

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecLotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 73 25 00KPIC Ulsan 00 00 00 83 00 00S Oil No 1 Onsan 00 146 146 00 00 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 167 333 00OCI Yeosu 00 00 00 33 00 00

00 146 146 357 358 00Mitsui Chemicals Chiba 00 00 00 83 83 00JX Nippon Oil Mizushima A 00 00 117 233 00 00Tonen General Wakayama 00 00 00 69 92 00

00 00 117 385 175 00FCFC Aroma No 2 Mailiao 83 250 00 00 00 00CPC No 6 Kaohsiung 40 00 20 80 20 00CPC No3 Kaoshiung 00 00 00 00 83 55

123 250 20 80 103 55123 396 283 822 636 55

Est TOL consumption loss from KR

Est TOL consumption loss from TW

Est TOL production loss from KR

Total est consumption loss from NE Asia

Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia

CONSUMPTION (mt)

PRODUCTION (mt)

Est TOL consumption loss from JPN

Est TOL production loss from JPN

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUlsan Aromatics Center TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 1000 500 00SKGC TDP Incheon 00 00 00 83 42 00LG Chem H D A (shut since Jan) Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38

38 38 38 1122 580 38Taiyo Oil TDP cut rate only Kikuma 42 07 00 00 00 00MSNC TDI (shut since April) Omuta 65 65 65 65 65 65

107 72 65 65 65 65145 110 103 1187 645 103

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSKGC Incheon 00 00 00 133 67 00

00 00 00 133 67 00Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 00 00 108 108 00 00JFEC Chiba 00 00 14 42 00 00

00 00 122 150 00 00CPC No 7 Kaohsiung 00 00 00 27 108 00CPC No 3 Kaohsiung 110 00 00 00 00 00

110 00 00 27 108 00110 00 122 310 175 00

Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia

PRODUCTION (mt)

CONSUMPTION (mt)

Est TOL consumption loss from KR

Est TOL consumption loss from JPNTotal est consumption loss from NE Asia

Est TOL production loss from KR

Est TOL production loss from JPN

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016

Qty

in to

nnes

Total est consumption loss from NE Asia Total est production loss from NE AsiaSource ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45

Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance

Source ICIS

bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016

bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread

bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption

bull Improvements in TOL blend values

bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading

bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer

bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers

bull Other competitively priced blendstocks

bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL

bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China

TOL supply

TOL demand

Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors

wwwiciscom 46

Drivers of benzene trade flow

wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47

-60-40-200204060

500550600650700750800850900

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea

China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016

020000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000180000200000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Tonn

es

Others

MiddleEastThailand

Malaysia

Taiwan

Japan

SouthKorea

China imports

Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand

Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance

Strong appetite for imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48

Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

-

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

Pric

e ($

tonn

e)

Tonn

es

Shore tank inventories

E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity

2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite

Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains

Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49

-80-60-40-20020406080100

500550600650700750800850900950

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15

Tonn

es

OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea

Imports from Asia increase

Imports lower due to higher China prices

S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015

Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates

US imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50

Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600Ja

n-14

Feb-

14M

ar-1

4A

pr-1

4M

ay-1

4Ju

n-14

Jul-1

4A

ug-1

4Se

p-14

Oct

-14

Nov

-14

Dec

-14

Jan-

15Fe

b-15

Mar

-15

Apr

-15

May

-15

Jun-

15Ju

l-15

Aug

-15

Sep-

15O

ct-1

5N

ov-1

5D

ec-1

5Ja

n-16

Feb-

16M

ar-1

6A

pr-1

6

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)Naphtha-Benzene

Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene

$346t $193t $230t

wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51

S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32

Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300

SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15

YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37

2015 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25

S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25

SK Global Chem Incheon 200

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16

OthersTaiwanChinaUS

S Korea exports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52

Outlook increased supply likely to head to China

Source ICIS industry

Company Location BZ Start up period

Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016

Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16

Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos

(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul

Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16

Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16

Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16

Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017

Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex

Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017

Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017

KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017

Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017

Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726

Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322

Product Company Location Capacity(kta)

BZ usage Start up period

SM

Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16

Donghao China 300 240 May-16

Phenol

PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16

Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16

Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17

PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017

Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017

CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17

CPL

Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16

China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16

Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16

MDI

Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017

Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017

Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017

Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972

Consumption within China in 2016 637 655

wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53

Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season

S Korea 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75

BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0

S Korea 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5

KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26

S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13

BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3

Japan 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36

Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12

BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0

Japan 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23

Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24

JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24

BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17

Source ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54

BZ demandBZ supply

bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China

bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ

bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene

bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units

bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher

bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure

bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed

bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand

Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55

Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom

Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom

Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom

Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom

wwwiciscom 56

Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets

Pricing information

- ButadieneC4s- Ethylene

Request your free sample report gtgt

We produce reliable price assessments and analyses covering Asian aromatics and olefins markets including price histories and a 12-month rolling price forecast enabling you to understand price drivers and settle your contract prices more confidently Our pricing coverage includes

- Mixed xylenes

- Propylene- Toluene

Real-time news serviceBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news including updates on plant capacities output and shutdowns

In-depth analysis of ChinaThe comprehensive studies on olefins and aromatics provide credible data and analysis to support your annual sales and strategy planning by giving you all of the following

- Comprehensive market overviews with detailed regional supply data and company profiles for 2013-2017

- In-depth downstream demand analysis and forecasts - Detailed import analysis between 2012-2014

Enquire about the annual studies

Request a free trial

Supply and demand data We give you an end-to-end perspective across the global petrochemical and refinery supply chain enabling you to grasp the local or regional scenario in a global context Data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2030

Request a free demo

- Benzene- Cumene- Paraxylene ndash Orthoxylene- Styrene

wwwiciscom 57

Bringing you faster more effective ways to improve productivity and decision making

Data ExpressAccess manage and analyse data easier than ever before with our Data Express solutions

bull Excel Plug-in - instantly update your worksheets in Excelbull API ndash stream the latest data directly to your systems

Set up email alerts for the most fluid markets to help you stay on top of market movements and enable you to react faster to price changes and other major developments

Market Alerts

Enquire about our market alerts

Build chart and track your formulas and keep them all in one place using real-time pricing data via the ICIS Dashboard

Formula Builder

Request a trial

Page 37: Asia Olefins & Aromatics Markets –A Turning of the Tide? · PDF fileBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news, ... Saudi Arabia 1,500 350 LDPE,1,080 solution PEQ2/mid 2016

wwwiciscom 38wwwiciscom 38

Chinese inventories have heavy influence on buying interest Q1 shortage supported sellersrsquo decision to offload more TOL

Ave = 103kt Ave = 903kt Ave = 89kt

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

USD

tonne0

00 to

nnes

east China south China CFR China price Import parity price of CNY cargoes

Strong demand from gasoline blending sector and cargo delays result in 3-year low inventories

Period of strong demand

Previously overbought slow offtake after LNY

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 39

S Korearsquos importexport position for TOL dependent on TDP spreads switch in production strategies in Q1 2016

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

50

100

150

200

25003

-Jan

-201

424

-Jan

-201

414

-Feb

-201

407

-Mar

-201

428

-Mar

-201

418

-Apr

-201

409

-May

-201

430

-May

-201

420

-Jun

-201

411

-Jul

-201

401

-Aug

-201

422

-Aug

-201

412

-Sep

-201

403

-Oct

-201

424

-Oct

-201

414

-Nov

-201

405

-Dec

-201

426

-Dec

-201

423

-Jan

-201

513

-Feb

-201

506

-Mar

-201

527

-Mar

-201

517

-Apr

-201

508

-May

-201

529

-May

-201

519

-Jun

-201

510

-Jul

-201

531

-Jul

-201

521

-Aug

-201

511

-Sep

-201

502

-Oct

-201

523

-Oct

-201

513

-Nov

-201

504

-Dec

-201

525

-Dec

-201

522

-Jan

-201

612

-Feb

-201

604

-Mar

-201

625

-Mar

-201

615

-Apr

-201

6

Qty in lsquo000 tonnes

USD

tonn

e

TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Exports from S Korea Imports to S Korea

Start up of UACrsquos TDP

Slight strategy switch as low Chinese inventories strong naphtha-TOL spread since Q1 leads to stronger TOL selling interest

Overall drop in TDP spreads from mid-2014 results in selling interest switch to net exporter

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 40

Heavier downstream unit turnarounds and production adjustments led to more S Korea-origin exports

H1 2015 H1 2016

0

20

40

60

80

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Qty

in 0

00 to

nnes

South Korea exports

China Taiwan Vietnam US Japan Singapore India Others

Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 13 00Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 00 00 18 00Hyundai Cosmo TDP Daesan 00 00 00 50 200 00S Oil No 2 TDP Onsan 00 00 00 200 00 00

00 00 00 250 231 00Producer LocationLG Chem Daesan 00 00 23 23 00 00YNCC No 1 Yeosu 00 00 00 00 50 50Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 00 00 00 08 63 00Lotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 23 00 00S Oil No 2 Onsan 00 00 124 267 00 00SKGC Incheon 67 00 00 00 00 00

67 00 147 321 113 50

Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)

Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)

Source ICIS

Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 00 87Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 27 00 00 00OCI TDI Kunsan 00 06 00 00 00 00GSCX STDP Yeosu 00 00 00 583 82 00Hanwha Total TDP Daesan 00 00 222 278 00 00SKGC TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 00 49 208LG H D A Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38

38 45 288 899 169 333Producer Location Hanwha Total Daesan 00 00 153 191 00 00GSCX Yeosu 00 00 00 174 49 00Lotte Chem Yeosu 00 00 00 47 16 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 00 78 333YNCC Yeosu 00 00 33 17 00 00

00 00 186 428 143 333

Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)

Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)

wwwiciscom 41wwwiciscom 41

NE Asia and SE Asia exports to China rise since H2 2015 on healthy netbacks strong demand

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

USD

tonne

Qty

in 0

00 to

nnes

Others

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea

Import parity of domesticcargoesFOB South Korea prices

Increase in selling to China because of healthy netbacks weak TDP spread

Narrow gap results in fewer imports in line with FOB K price support from PX

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 42wwwiciscom 42

Exports from Asia to US market sporadic highly dependent on price gap gasoline blending season and Asia demand

0

10

20

30

40

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250Q

ty in 000 tonnesU

SDto

nne

Price gap (Asia prompt vs US forward) Exports from Asia to US

Open arbitrage opportunities result in increase of Asia exports

Consistent upward trend leads to selling interest

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 43wwwiciscom 43

India TOL imports mainly from SE Asia and Iran

46

23

17

37

4

2014

Singapore Thailand Iran S Korea Europe Others

2015

50

24

9

37

7

Source customs data

Total= 288kt Total= 288kt

wwwiciscom 44wwwiciscom 44

NE Asia TOL supply could outstrip demand in H2 2016 on heavier downstream turnarounds permanent shutdowns

H2 2015 H2 2016

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S Oil Onsan old TDP Onsan 00 42 42 00 00 00

00 42 42 00 00 00FCFC Aroma 2 TDP Mailiao 67 200 00 00 00 00

67 200 00 00 00 00JX Nippon Oil TDP Mizushima A 00 00 75 75 00 00

00 00 75 75 00 0067 242 117 75 00 00

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecLotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 73 25 00KPIC Ulsan 00 00 00 83 00 00S Oil No 1 Onsan 00 146 146 00 00 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 167 333 00OCI Yeosu 00 00 00 33 00 00

00 146 146 357 358 00Mitsui Chemicals Chiba 00 00 00 83 83 00JX Nippon Oil Mizushima A 00 00 117 233 00 00Tonen General Wakayama 00 00 00 69 92 00

00 00 117 385 175 00FCFC Aroma No 2 Mailiao 83 250 00 00 00 00CPC No 6 Kaohsiung 40 00 20 80 20 00CPC No3 Kaoshiung 00 00 00 00 83 55

123 250 20 80 103 55123 396 283 822 636 55

Est TOL consumption loss from KR

Est TOL consumption loss from TW

Est TOL production loss from KR

Total est consumption loss from NE Asia

Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia

CONSUMPTION (mt)

PRODUCTION (mt)

Est TOL consumption loss from JPN

Est TOL production loss from JPN

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUlsan Aromatics Center TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 1000 500 00SKGC TDP Incheon 00 00 00 83 42 00LG Chem H D A (shut since Jan) Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38

38 38 38 1122 580 38Taiyo Oil TDP cut rate only Kikuma 42 07 00 00 00 00MSNC TDI (shut since April) Omuta 65 65 65 65 65 65

107 72 65 65 65 65145 110 103 1187 645 103

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSKGC Incheon 00 00 00 133 67 00

00 00 00 133 67 00Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 00 00 108 108 00 00JFEC Chiba 00 00 14 42 00 00

00 00 122 150 00 00CPC No 7 Kaohsiung 00 00 00 27 108 00CPC No 3 Kaohsiung 110 00 00 00 00 00

110 00 00 27 108 00110 00 122 310 175 00

Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia

PRODUCTION (mt)

CONSUMPTION (mt)

Est TOL consumption loss from KR

Est TOL consumption loss from JPNTotal est consumption loss from NE Asia

Est TOL production loss from KR

Est TOL production loss from JPN

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016

Qty

in to

nnes

Total est consumption loss from NE Asia Total est production loss from NE AsiaSource ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45

Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance

Source ICIS

bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016

bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread

bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption

bull Improvements in TOL blend values

bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading

bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer

bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers

bull Other competitively priced blendstocks

bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL

bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China

TOL supply

TOL demand

Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors

wwwiciscom 46

Drivers of benzene trade flow

wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47

-60-40-200204060

500550600650700750800850900

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea

China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016

020000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000180000200000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Tonn

es

Others

MiddleEastThailand

Malaysia

Taiwan

Japan

SouthKorea

China imports

Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand

Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance

Strong appetite for imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48

Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

-

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

Pric

e ($

tonn

e)

Tonn

es

Shore tank inventories

E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity

2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite

Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains

Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49

-80-60-40-20020406080100

500550600650700750800850900950

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15

Tonn

es

OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea

Imports from Asia increase

Imports lower due to higher China prices

S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015

Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates

US imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50

Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600Ja

n-14

Feb-

14M

ar-1

4A

pr-1

4M

ay-1

4Ju

n-14

Jul-1

4A

ug-1

4Se

p-14

Oct

-14

Nov

-14

Dec

-14

Jan-

15Fe

b-15

Mar

-15

Apr

-15

May

-15

Jun-

15Ju

l-15

Aug

-15

Sep-

15O

ct-1

5N

ov-1

5D

ec-1

5Ja

n-16

Feb-

16M

ar-1

6A

pr-1

6

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)Naphtha-Benzene

Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene

$346t $193t $230t

wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51

S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32

Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300

SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15

YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37

2015 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25

S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25

SK Global Chem Incheon 200

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16

OthersTaiwanChinaUS

S Korea exports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52

Outlook increased supply likely to head to China

Source ICIS industry

Company Location BZ Start up period

Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016

Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16

Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos

(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul

Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16

Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16

Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16

Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017

Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex

Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017

Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017

KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017

Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017

Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726

Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322

Product Company Location Capacity(kta)

BZ usage Start up period

SM

Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16

Donghao China 300 240 May-16

Phenol

PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16

Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16

Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17

PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017

Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017

CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17

CPL

Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16

China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16

Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16

MDI

Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017

Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017

Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017

Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972

Consumption within China in 2016 637 655

wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53

Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season

S Korea 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75

BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0

S Korea 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5

KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26

S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13

BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3

Japan 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36

Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12

BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0

Japan 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23

Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24

JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24

BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17

Source ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54

BZ demandBZ supply

bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China

bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ

bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene

bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units

bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher

bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure

bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed

bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand

Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55

Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom

Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom

Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom

Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom

wwwiciscom 56

Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets

Pricing information

- ButadieneC4s- Ethylene

Request your free sample report gtgt

We produce reliable price assessments and analyses covering Asian aromatics and olefins markets including price histories and a 12-month rolling price forecast enabling you to understand price drivers and settle your contract prices more confidently Our pricing coverage includes

- Mixed xylenes

- Propylene- Toluene

Real-time news serviceBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news including updates on plant capacities output and shutdowns

In-depth analysis of ChinaThe comprehensive studies on olefins and aromatics provide credible data and analysis to support your annual sales and strategy planning by giving you all of the following

- Comprehensive market overviews with detailed regional supply data and company profiles for 2013-2017

- In-depth downstream demand analysis and forecasts - Detailed import analysis between 2012-2014

Enquire about the annual studies

Request a free trial

Supply and demand data We give you an end-to-end perspective across the global petrochemical and refinery supply chain enabling you to grasp the local or regional scenario in a global context Data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2030

Request a free demo

- Benzene- Cumene- Paraxylene ndash Orthoxylene- Styrene

wwwiciscom 57

Bringing you faster more effective ways to improve productivity and decision making

Data ExpressAccess manage and analyse data easier than ever before with our Data Express solutions

bull Excel Plug-in - instantly update your worksheets in Excelbull API ndash stream the latest data directly to your systems

Set up email alerts for the most fluid markets to help you stay on top of market movements and enable you to react faster to price changes and other major developments

Market Alerts

Enquire about our market alerts

Build chart and track your formulas and keep them all in one place using real-time pricing data via the ICIS Dashboard

Formula Builder

Request a trial

Page 38: Asia Olefins & Aromatics Markets –A Turning of the Tide? · PDF fileBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news, ... Saudi Arabia 1,500 350 LDPE,1,080 solution PEQ2/mid 2016

wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 39

S Korearsquos importexport position for TOL dependent on TDP spreads switch in production strategies in Q1 2016

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

50

100

150

200

25003

-Jan

-201

424

-Jan

-201

414

-Feb

-201

407

-Mar

-201

428

-Mar

-201

418

-Apr

-201

409

-May

-201

430

-May

-201

420

-Jun

-201

411

-Jul

-201

401

-Aug

-201

422

-Aug

-201

412

-Sep

-201

403

-Oct

-201

424

-Oct

-201

414

-Nov

-201

405

-Dec

-201

426

-Dec

-201

423

-Jan

-201

513

-Feb

-201

506

-Mar

-201

527

-Mar

-201

517

-Apr

-201

508

-May

-201

529

-May

-201

519

-Jun

-201

510

-Jul

-201

531

-Jul

-201

521

-Aug

-201

511

-Sep

-201

502

-Oct

-201

523

-Oct

-201

513

-Nov

-201

504

-Dec

-201

525

-Dec

-201

522

-Jan

-201

612

-Feb

-201

604

-Mar

-201

625

-Mar

-201

615

-Apr

-201

6

Qty in lsquo000 tonnes

USD

tonn

e

TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Exports from S Korea Imports to S Korea

Start up of UACrsquos TDP

Slight strategy switch as low Chinese inventories strong naphtha-TOL spread since Q1 leads to stronger TOL selling interest

Overall drop in TDP spreads from mid-2014 results in selling interest switch to net exporter

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 40

Heavier downstream unit turnarounds and production adjustments led to more S Korea-origin exports

H1 2015 H1 2016

0

20

40

60

80

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Qty

in 0

00 to

nnes

South Korea exports

China Taiwan Vietnam US Japan Singapore India Others

Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 13 00Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 00 00 18 00Hyundai Cosmo TDP Daesan 00 00 00 50 200 00S Oil No 2 TDP Onsan 00 00 00 200 00 00

00 00 00 250 231 00Producer LocationLG Chem Daesan 00 00 23 23 00 00YNCC No 1 Yeosu 00 00 00 00 50 50Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 00 00 00 08 63 00Lotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 23 00 00S Oil No 2 Onsan 00 00 124 267 00 00SKGC Incheon 67 00 00 00 00 00

67 00 147 321 113 50

Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)

Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)

Source ICIS

Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 00 87Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 27 00 00 00OCI TDI Kunsan 00 06 00 00 00 00GSCX STDP Yeosu 00 00 00 583 82 00Hanwha Total TDP Daesan 00 00 222 278 00 00SKGC TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 00 49 208LG H D A Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38

38 45 288 899 169 333Producer Location Hanwha Total Daesan 00 00 153 191 00 00GSCX Yeosu 00 00 00 174 49 00Lotte Chem Yeosu 00 00 00 47 16 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 00 78 333YNCC Yeosu 00 00 33 17 00 00

00 00 186 428 143 333

Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)

Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)

wwwiciscom 41wwwiciscom 41

NE Asia and SE Asia exports to China rise since H2 2015 on healthy netbacks strong demand

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

USD

tonne

Qty

in 0

00 to

nnes

Others

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea

Import parity of domesticcargoesFOB South Korea prices

Increase in selling to China because of healthy netbacks weak TDP spread

Narrow gap results in fewer imports in line with FOB K price support from PX

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 42wwwiciscom 42

Exports from Asia to US market sporadic highly dependent on price gap gasoline blending season and Asia demand

0

10

20

30

40

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250Q

ty in 000 tonnesU

SDto

nne

Price gap (Asia prompt vs US forward) Exports from Asia to US

Open arbitrage opportunities result in increase of Asia exports

Consistent upward trend leads to selling interest

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 43wwwiciscom 43

India TOL imports mainly from SE Asia and Iran

46

23

17

37

4

2014

Singapore Thailand Iran S Korea Europe Others

2015

50

24

9

37

7

Source customs data

Total= 288kt Total= 288kt

wwwiciscom 44wwwiciscom 44

NE Asia TOL supply could outstrip demand in H2 2016 on heavier downstream turnarounds permanent shutdowns

H2 2015 H2 2016

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S Oil Onsan old TDP Onsan 00 42 42 00 00 00

00 42 42 00 00 00FCFC Aroma 2 TDP Mailiao 67 200 00 00 00 00

67 200 00 00 00 00JX Nippon Oil TDP Mizushima A 00 00 75 75 00 00

00 00 75 75 00 0067 242 117 75 00 00

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecLotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 73 25 00KPIC Ulsan 00 00 00 83 00 00S Oil No 1 Onsan 00 146 146 00 00 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 167 333 00OCI Yeosu 00 00 00 33 00 00

00 146 146 357 358 00Mitsui Chemicals Chiba 00 00 00 83 83 00JX Nippon Oil Mizushima A 00 00 117 233 00 00Tonen General Wakayama 00 00 00 69 92 00

00 00 117 385 175 00FCFC Aroma No 2 Mailiao 83 250 00 00 00 00CPC No 6 Kaohsiung 40 00 20 80 20 00CPC No3 Kaoshiung 00 00 00 00 83 55

123 250 20 80 103 55123 396 283 822 636 55

Est TOL consumption loss from KR

Est TOL consumption loss from TW

Est TOL production loss from KR

Total est consumption loss from NE Asia

Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia

CONSUMPTION (mt)

PRODUCTION (mt)

Est TOL consumption loss from JPN

Est TOL production loss from JPN

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUlsan Aromatics Center TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 1000 500 00SKGC TDP Incheon 00 00 00 83 42 00LG Chem H D A (shut since Jan) Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38

38 38 38 1122 580 38Taiyo Oil TDP cut rate only Kikuma 42 07 00 00 00 00MSNC TDI (shut since April) Omuta 65 65 65 65 65 65

107 72 65 65 65 65145 110 103 1187 645 103

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSKGC Incheon 00 00 00 133 67 00

00 00 00 133 67 00Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 00 00 108 108 00 00JFEC Chiba 00 00 14 42 00 00

00 00 122 150 00 00CPC No 7 Kaohsiung 00 00 00 27 108 00CPC No 3 Kaohsiung 110 00 00 00 00 00

110 00 00 27 108 00110 00 122 310 175 00

Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia

PRODUCTION (mt)

CONSUMPTION (mt)

Est TOL consumption loss from KR

Est TOL consumption loss from JPNTotal est consumption loss from NE Asia

Est TOL production loss from KR

Est TOL production loss from JPN

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016

Qty

in to

nnes

Total est consumption loss from NE Asia Total est production loss from NE AsiaSource ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45

Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance

Source ICIS

bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016

bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread

bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption

bull Improvements in TOL blend values

bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading

bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer

bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers

bull Other competitively priced blendstocks

bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL

bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China

TOL supply

TOL demand

Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors

wwwiciscom 46

Drivers of benzene trade flow

wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47

-60-40-200204060

500550600650700750800850900

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea

China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016

020000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000180000200000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Tonn

es

Others

MiddleEastThailand

Malaysia

Taiwan

Japan

SouthKorea

China imports

Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand

Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance

Strong appetite for imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48

Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

-

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

Pric

e ($

tonn

e)

Tonn

es

Shore tank inventories

E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity

2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite

Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains

Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49

-80-60-40-20020406080100

500550600650700750800850900950

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15

Tonn

es

OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea

Imports from Asia increase

Imports lower due to higher China prices

S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015

Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates

US imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50

Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600Ja

n-14

Feb-

14M

ar-1

4A

pr-1

4M

ay-1

4Ju

n-14

Jul-1

4A

ug-1

4Se

p-14

Oct

-14

Nov

-14

Dec

-14

Jan-

15Fe

b-15

Mar

-15

Apr

-15

May

-15

Jun-

15Ju

l-15

Aug

-15

Sep-

15O

ct-1

5N

ov-1

5D

ec-1

5Ja

n-16

Feb-

16M

ar-1

6A

pr-1

6

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)Naphtha-Benzene

Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene

$346t $193t $230t

wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51

S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32

Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300

SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15

YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37

2015 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25

S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25

SK Global Chem Incheon 200

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16

OthersTaiwanChinaUS

S Korea exports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52

Outlook increased supply likely to head to China

Source ICIS industry

Company Location BZ Start up period

Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016

Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16

Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos

(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul

Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16

Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16

Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16

Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017

Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex

Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017

Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017

KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017

Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017

Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726

Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322

Product Company Location Capacity(kta)

BZ usage Start up period

SM

Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16

Donghao China 300 240 May-16

Phenol

PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16

Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16

Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17

PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017

Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017

CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17

CPL

Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16

China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16

Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16

MDI

Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017

Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017

Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017

Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972

Consumption within China in 2016 637 655

wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53

Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season

S Korea 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75

BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0

S Korea 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5

KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26

S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13

BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3

Japan 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36

Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12

BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0

Japan 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23

Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24

JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24

BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17

Source ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54

BZ demandBZ supply

bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China

bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ

bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene

bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units

bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher

bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure

bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed

bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand

Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55

Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom

Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom

Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom

Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom

wwwiciscom 56

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wwwiciscom 57

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Page 39: Asia Olefins & Aromatics Markets –A Turning of the Tide? · PDF fileBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news, ... Saudi Arabia 1,500 350 LDPE,1,080 solution PEQ2/mid 2016

wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 40

Heavier downstream unit turnarounds and production adjustments led to more S Korea-origin exports

H1 2015 H1 2016

0

20

40

60

80

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Qty

in 0

00 to

nnes

South Korea exports

China Taiwan Vietnam US Japan Singapore India Others

Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 13 00Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 00 00 18 00Hyundai Cosmo TDP Daesan 00 00 00 50 200 00S Oil No 2 TDP Onsan 00 00 00 200 00 00

00 00 00 250 231 00Producer LocationLG Chem Daesan 00 00 23 23 00 00YNCC No 1 Yeosu 00 00 00 00 50 50Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 00 00 00 08 63 00Lotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 23 00 00S Oil No 2 Onsan 00 00 124 267 00 00SKGC Incheon 67 00 00 00 00 00

67 00 147 321 113 50

Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)

Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)

Source ICIS

Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 00 87Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 27 00 00 00OCI TDI Kunsan 00 06 00 00 00 00GSCX STDP Yeosu 00 00 00 583 82 00Hanwha Total TDP Daesan 00 00 222 278 00 00SKGC TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 00 49 208LG H D A Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38

38 45 288 899 169 333Producer Location Hanwha Total Daesan 00 00 153 191 00 00GSCX Yeosu 00 00 00 174 49 00Lotte Chem Yeosu 00 00 00 47 16 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 00 78 333YNCC Yeosu 00 00 33 17 00 00

00 00 186 428 143 333

Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)

Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)

wwwiciscom 41wwwiciscom 41

NE Asia and SE Asia exports to China rise since H2 2015 on healthy netbacks strong demand

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

USD

tonne

Qty

in 0

00 to

nnes

Others

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea

Import parity of domesticcargoesFOB South Korea prices

Increase in selling to China because of healthy netbacks weak TDP spread

Narrow gap results in fewer imports in line with FOB K price support from PX

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 42wwwiciscom 42

Exports from Asia to US market sporadic highly dependent on price gap gasoline blending season and Asia demand

0

10

20

30

40

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250Q

ty in 000 tonnesU

SDto

nne

Price gap (Asia prompt vs US forward) Exports from Asia to US

Open arbitrage opportunities result in increase of Asia exports

Consistent upward trend leads to selling interest

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 43wwwiciscom 43

India TOL imports mainly from SE Asia and Iran

46

23

17

37

4

2014

Singapore Thailand Iran S Korea Europe Others

2015

50

24

9

37

7

Source customs data

Total= 288kt Total= 288kt

wwwiciscom 44wwwiciscom 44

NE Asia TOL supply could outstrip demand in H2 2016 on heavier downstream turnarounds permanent shutdowns

H2 2015 H2 2016

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S Oil Onsan old TDP Onsan 00 42 42 00 00 00

00 42 42 00 00 00FCFC Aroma 2 TDP Mailiao 67 200 00 00 00 00

67 200 00 00 00 00JX Nippon Oil TDP Mizushima A 00 00 75 75 00 00

00 00 75 75 00 0067 242 117 75 00 00

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecLotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 73 25 00KPIC Ulsan 00 00 00 83 00 00S Oil No 1 Onsan 00 146 146 00 00 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 167 333 00OCI Yeosu 00 00 00 33 00 00

00 146 146 357 358 00Mitsui Chemicals Chiba 00 00 00 83 83 00JX Nippon Oil Mizushima A 00 00 117 233 00 00Tonen General Wakayama 00 00 00 69 92 00

00 00 117 385 175 00FCFC Aroma No 2 Mailiao 83 250 00 00 00 00CPC No 6 Kaohsiung 40 00 20 80 20 00CPC No3 Kaoshiung 00 00 00 00 83 55

123 250 20 80 103 55123 396 283 822 636 55

Est TOL consumption loss from KR

Est TOL consumption loss from TW

Est TOL production loss from KR

Total est consumption loss from NE Asia

Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia

CONSUMPTION (mt)

PRODUCTION (mt)

Est TOL consumption loss from JPN

Est TOL production loss from JPN

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUlsan Aromatics Center TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 1000 500 00SKGC TDP Incheon 00 00 00 83 42 00LG Chem H D A (shut since Jan) Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38

38 38 38 1122 580 38Taiyo Oil TDP cut rate only Kikuma 42 07 00 00 00 00MSNC TDI (shut since April) Omuta 65 65 65 65 65 65

107 72 65 65 65 65145 110 103 1187 645 103

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSKGC Incheon 00 00 00 133 67 00

00 00 00 133 67 00Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 00 00 108 108 00 00JFEC Chiba 00 00 14 42 00 00

00 00 122 150 00 00CPC No 7 Kaohsiung 00 00 00 27 108 00CPC No 3 Kaohsiung 110 00 00 00 00 00

110 00 00 27 108 00110 00 122 310 175 00

Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia

PRODUCTION (mt)

CONSUMPTION (mt)

Est TOL consumption loss from KR

Est TOL consumption loss from JPNTotal est consumption loss from NE Asia

Est TOL production loss from KR

Est TOL production loss from JPN

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016

Qty

in to

nnes

Total est consumption loss from NE Asia Total est production loss from NE AsiaSource ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45

Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance

Source ICIS

bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016

bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread

bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption

bull Improvements in TOL blend values

bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading

bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer

bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers

bull Other competitively priced blendstocks

bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL

bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China

TOL supply

TOL demand

Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors

wwwiciscom 46

Drivers of benzene trade flow

wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47

-60-40-200204060

500550600650700750800850900

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea

China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016

020000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000180000200000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Tonn

es

Others

MiddleEastThailand

Malaysia

Taiwan

Japan

SouthKorea

China imports

Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand

Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance

Strong appetite for imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48

Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

-

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

Pric

e ($

tonn

e)

Tonn

es

Shore tank inventories

E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity

2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite

Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains

Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49

-80-60-40-20020406080100

500550600650700750800850900950

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15

Tonn

es

OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea

Imports from Asia increase

Imports lower due to higher China prices

S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015

Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates

US imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50

Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600Ja

n-14

Feb-

14M

ar-1

4A

pr-1

4M

ay-1

4Ju

n-14

Jul-1

4A

ug-1

4Se

p-14

Oct

-14

Nov

-14

Dec

-14

Jan-

15Fe

b-15

Mar

-15

Apr

-15

May

-15

Jun-

15Ju

l-15

Aug

-15

Sep-

15O

ct-1

5N

ov-1

5D

ec-1

5Ja

n-16

Feb-

16M

ar-1

6A

pr-1

6

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)Naphtha-Benzene

Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene

$346t $193t $230t

wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51

S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32

Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300

SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15

YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37

2015 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25

S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25

SK Global Chem Incheon 200

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16

OthersTaiwanChinaUS

S Korea exports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52

Outlook increased supply likely to head to China

Source ICIS industry

Company Location BZ Start up period

Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016

Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16

Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos

(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul

Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16

Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16

Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16

Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017

Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex

Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017

Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017

KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017

Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017

Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726

Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322

Product Company Location Capacity(kta)

BZ usage Start up period

SM

Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16

Donghao China 300 240 May-16

Phenol

PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16

Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16

Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17

PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017

Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017

CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17

CPL

Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16

China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16

Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16

MDI

Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017

Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017

Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017

Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972

Consumption within China in 2016 637 655

wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53

Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season

S Korea 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75

BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0

S Korea 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5

KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26

S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13

BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3

Japan 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36

Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12

BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0

Japan 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23

Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24

JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24

BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17

Source ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54

BZ demandBZ supply

bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China

bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ

bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene

bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units

bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher

bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure

bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed

bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand

Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55

Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom

Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom

Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom

Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom

wwwiciscom 56

Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets

Pricing information

- ButadieneC4s- Ethylene

Request your free sample report gtgt

We produce reliable price assessments and analyses covering Asian aromatics and olefins markets including price histories and a 12-month rolling price forecast enabling you to understand price drivers and settle your contract prices more confidently Our pricing coverage includes

- Mixed xylenes

- Propylene- Toluene

Real-time news serviceBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news including updates on plant capacities output and shutdowns

In-depth analysis of ChinaThe comprehensive studies on olefins and aromatics provide credible data and analysis to support your annual sales and strategy planning by giving you all of the following

- Comprehensive market overviews with detailed regional supply data and company profiles for 2013-2017

- In-depth downstream demand analysis and forecasts - Detailed import analysis between 2012-2014

Enquire about the annual studies

Request a free trial

Supply and demand data We give you an end-to-end perspective across the global petrochemical and refinery supply chain enabling you to grasp the local or regional scenario in a global context Data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2030

Request a free demo

- Benzene- Cumene- Paraxylene ndash Orthoxylene- Styrene

wwwiciscom 57

Bringing you faster more effective ways to improve productivity and decision making

Data ExpressAccess manage and analyse data easier than ever before with our Data Express solutions

bull Excel Plug-in - instantly update your worksheets in Excelbull API ndash stream the latest data directly to your systems

Set up email alerts for the most fluid markets to help you stay on top of market movements and enable you to react faster to price changes and other major developments

Market Alerts

Enquire about our market alerts

Build chart and track your formulas and keep them all in one place using real-time pricing data via the ICIS Dashboard

Formula Builder

Request a trial

Page 40: Asia Olefins & Aromatics Markets –A Turning of the Tide? · PDF fileBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news, ... Saudi Arabia 1,500 350 LDPE,1,080 solution PEQ2/mid 2016

wwwiciscom 41wwwiciscom 41

NE Asia and SE Asia exports to China rise since H2 2015 on healthy netbacks strong demand

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

USD

tonne

Qty

in 0

00 to

nnes

Others

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea

Import parity of domesticcargoesFOB South Korea prices

Increase in selling to China because of healthy netbacks weak TDP spread

Narrow gap results in fewer imports in line with FOB K price support from PX

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 42wwwiciscom 42

Exports from Asia to US market sporadic highly dependent on price gap gasoline blending season and Asia demand

0

10

20

30

40

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250Q

ty in 000 tonnesU

SDto

nne

Price gap (Asia prompt vs US forward) Exports from Asia to US

Open arbitrage opportunities result in increase of Asia exports

Consistent upward trend leads to selling interest

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 43wwwiciscom 43

India TOL imports mainly from SE Asia and Iran

46

23

17

37

4

2014

Singapore Thailand Iran S Korea Europe Others

2015

50

24

9

37

7

Source customs data

Total= 288kt Total= 288kt

wwwiciscom 44wwwiciscom 44

NE Asia TOL supply could outstrip demand in H2 2016 on heavier downstream turnarounds permanent shutdowns

H2 2015 H2 2016

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S Oil Onsan old TDP Onsan 00 42 42 00 00 00

00 42 42 00 00 00FCFC Aroma 2 TDP Mailiao 67 200 00 00 00 00

67 200 00 00 00 00JX Nippon Oil TDP Mizushima A 00 00 75 75 00 00

00 00 75 75 00 0067 242 117 75 00 00

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecLotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 73 25 00KPIC Ulsan 00 00 00 83 00 00S Oil No 1 Onsan 00 146 146 00 00 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 167 333 00OCI Yeosu 00 00 00 33 00 00

00 146 146 357 358 00Mitsui Chemicals Chiba 00 00 00 83 83 00JX Nippon Oil Mizushima A 00 00 117 233 00 00Tonen General Wakayama 00 00 00 69 92 00

00 00 117 385 175 00FCFC Aroma No 2 Mailiao 83 250 00 00 00 00CPC No 6 Kaohsiung 40 00 20 80 20 00CPC No3 Kaoshiung 00 00 00 00 83 55

123 250 20 80 103 55123 396 283 822 636 55

Est TOL consumption loss from KR

Est TOL consumption loss from TW

Est TOL production loss from KR

Total est consumption loss from NE Asia

Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia

CONSUMPTION (mt)

PRODUCTION (mt)

Est TOL consumption loss from JPN

Est TOL production loss from JPN

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUlsan Aromatics Center TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 1000 500 00SKGC TDP Incheon 00 00 00 83 42 00LG Chem H D A (shut since Jan) Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38

38 38 38 1122 580 38Taiyo Oil TDP cut rate only Kikuma 42 07 00 00 00 00MSNC TDI (shut since April) Omuta 65 65 65 65 65 65

107 72 65 65 65 65145 110 103 1187 645 103

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSKGC Incheon 00 00 00 133 67 00

00 00 00 133 67 00Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 00 00 108 108 00 00JFEC Chiba 00 00 14 42 00 00

00 00 122 150 00 00CPC No 7 Kaohsiung 00 00 00 27 108 00CPC No 3 Kaohsiung 110 00 00 00 00 00

110 00 00 27 108 00110 00 122 310 175 00

Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia

PRODUCTION (mt)

CONSUMPTION (mt)

Est TOL consumption loss from KR

Est TOL consumption loss from JPNTotal est consumption loss from NE Asia

Est TOL production loss from KR

Est TOL production loss from JPN

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016

Qty

in to

nnes

Total est consumption loss from NE Asia Total est production loss from NE AsiaSource ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45

Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance

Source ICIS

bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016

bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread

bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption

bull Improvements in TOL blend values

bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading

bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer

bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers

bull Other competitively priced blendstocks

bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL

bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China

TOL supply

TOL demand

Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors

wwwiciscom 46

Drivers of benzene trade flow

wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47

-60-40-200204060

500550600650700750800850900

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea

China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016

020000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000180000200000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Tonn

es

Others

MiddleEastThailand

Malaysia

Taiwan

Japan

SouthKorea

China imports

Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand

Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance

Strong appetite for imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48

Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

-

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

Pric

e ($

tonn

e)

Tonn

es

Shore tank inventories

E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity

2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite

Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains

Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49

-80-60-40-20020406080100

500550600650700750800850900950

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15

Tonn

es

OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea

Imports from Asia increase

Imports lower due to higher China prices

S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015

Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates

US imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50

Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600Ja

n-14

Feb-

14M

ar-1

4A

pr-1

4M

ay-1

4Ju

n-14

Jul-1

4A

ug-1

4Se

p-14

Oct

-14

Nov

-14

Dec

-14

Jan-

15Fe

b-15

Mar

-15

Apr

-15

May

-15

Jun-

15Ju

l-15

Aug

-15

Sep-

15O

ct-1

5N

ov-1

5D

ec-1

5Ja

n-16

Feb-

16M

ar-1

6A

pr-1

6

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)Naphtha-Benzene

Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene

$346t $193t $230t

wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51

S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32

Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300

SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15

YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37

2015 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25

S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25

SK Global Chem Incheon 200

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16

OthersTaiwanChinaUS

S Korea exports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52

Outlook increased supply likely to head to China

Source ICIS industry

Company Location BZ Start up period

Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016

Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16

Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos

(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul

Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16

Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16

Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16

Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017

Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex

Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017

Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017

KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017

Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017

Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726

Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322

Product Company Location Capacity(kta)

BZ usage Start up period

SM

Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16

Donghao China 300 240 May-16

Phenol

PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16

Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16

Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17

PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017

Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017

CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17

CPL

Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16

China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16

Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16

MDI

Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017

Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017

Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017

Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972

Consumption within China in 2016 637 655

wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53

Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season

S Korea 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75

BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0

S Korea 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5

KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26

S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13

BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3

Japan 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36

Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12

BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0

Japan 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23

Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24

JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24

BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17

Source ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54

BZ demandBZ supply

bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China

bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ

bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene

bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units

bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher

bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure

bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed

bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand

Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55

Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom

Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom

Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom

Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom

wwwiciscom 56

Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets

Pricing information

- ButadieneC4s- Ethylene

Request your free sample report gtgt

We produce reliable price assessments and analyses covering Asian aromatics and olefins markets including price histories and a 12-month rolling price forecast enabling you to understand price drivers and settle your contract prices more confidently Our pricing coverage includes

- Mixed xylenes

- Propylene- Toluene

Real-time news serviceBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news including updates on plant capacities output and shutdowns

In-depth analysis of ChinaThe comprehensive studies on olefins and aromatics provide credible data and analysis to support your annual sales and strategy planning by giving you all of the following

- Comprehensive market overviews with detailed regional supply data and company profiles for 2013-2017

- In-depth downstream demand analysis and forecasts - Detailed import analysis between 2012-2014

Enquire about the annual studies

Request a free trial

Supply and demand data We give you an end-to-end perspective across the global petrochemical and refinery supply chain enabling you to grasp the local or regional scenario in a global context Data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2030

Request a free demo

- Benzene- Cumene- Paraxylene ndash Orthoxylene- Styrene

wwwiciscom 57

Bringing you faster more effective ways to improve productivity and decision making

Data ExpressAccess manage and analyse data easier than ever before with our Data Express solutions

bull Excel Plug-in - instantly update your worksheets in Excelbull API ndash stream the latest data directly to your systems

Set up email alerts for the most fluid markets to help you stay on top of market movements and enable you to react faster to price changes and other major developments

Market Alerts

Enquire about our market alerts

Build chart and track your formulas and keep them all in one place using real-time pricing data via the ICIS Dashboard

Formula Builder

Request a trial

Page 41: Asia Olefins & Aromatics Markets –A Turning of the Tide? · PDF fileBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news, ... Saudi Arabia 1,500 350 LDPE,1,080 solution PEQ2/mid 2016

wwwiciscom 42wwwiciscom 42

Exports from Asia to US market sporadic highly dependent on price gap gasoline blending season and Asia demand

0

10

20

30

40

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250Q

ty in 000 tonnesU

SDto

nne

Price gap (Asia prompt vs US forward) Exports from Asia to US

Open arbitrage opportunities result in increase of Asia exports

Consistent upward trend leads to selling interest

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 43wwwiciscom 43

India TOL imports mainly from SE Asia and Iran

46

23

17

37

4

2014

Singapore Thailand Iran S Korea Europe Others

2015

50

24

9

37

7

Source customs data

Total= 288kt Total= 288kt

wwwiciscom 44wwwiciscom 44

NE Asia TOL supply could outstrip demand in H2 2016 on heavier downstream turnarounds permanent shutdowns

H2 2015 H2 2016

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S Oil Onsan old TDP Onsan 00 42 42 00 00 00

00 42 42 00 00 00FCFC Aroma 2 TDP Mailiao 67 200 00 00 00 00

67 200 00 00 00 00JX Nippon Oil TDP Mizushima A 00 00 75 75 00 00

00 00 75 75 00 0067 242 117 75 00 00

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecLotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 73 25 00KPIC Ulsan 00 00 00 83 00 00S Oil No 1 Onsan 00 146 146 00 00 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 167 333 00OCI Yeosu 00 00 00 33 00 00

00 146 146 357 358 00Mitsui Chemicals Chiba 00 00 00 83 83 00JX Nippon Oil Mizushima A 00 00 117 233 00 00Tonen General Wakayama 00 00 00 69 92 00

00 00 117 385 175 00FCFC Aroma No 2 Mailiao 83 250 00 00 00 00CPC No 6 Kaohsiung 40 00 20 80 20 00CPC No3 Kaoshiung 00 00 00 00 83 55

123 250 20 80 103 55123 396 283 822 636 55

Est TOL consumption loss from KR

Est TOL consumption loss from TW

Est TOL production loss from KR

Total est consumption loss from NE Asia

Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia

CONSUMPTION (mt)

PRODUCTION (mt)

Est TOL consumption loss from JPN

Est TOL production loss from JPN

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUlsan Aromatics Center TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 1000 500 00SKGC TDP Incheon 00 00 00 83 42 00LG Chem H D A (shut since Jan) Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38

38 38 38 1122 580 38Taiyo Oil TDP cut rate only Kikuma 42 07 00 00 00 00MSNC TDI (shut since April) Omuta 65 65 65 65 65 65

107 72 65 65 65 65145 110 103 1187 645 103

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSKGC Incheon 00 00 00 133 67 00

00 00 00 133 67 00Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 00 00 108 108 00 00JFEC Chiba 00 00 14 42 00 00

00 00 122 150 00 00CPC No 7 Kaohsiung 00 00 00 27 108 00CPC No 3 Kaohsiung 110 00 00 00 00 00

110 00 00 27 108 00110 00 122 310 175 00

Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia

PRODUCTION (mt)

CONSUMPTION (mt)

Est TOL consumption loss from KR

Est TOL consumption loss from JPNTotal est consumption loss from NE Asia

Est TOL production loss from KR

Est TOL production loss from JPN

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016

Qty

in to

nnes

Total est consumption loss from NE Asia Total est production loss from NE AsiaSource ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45

Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance

Source ICIS

bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016

bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread

bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption

bull Improvements in TOL blend values

bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading

bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer

bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers

bull Other competitively priced blendstocks

bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL

bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China

TOL supply

TOL demand

Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors

wwwiciscom 46

Drivers of benzene trade flow

wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47

-60-40-200204060

500550600650700750800850900

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea

China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016

020000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000180000200000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Tonn

es

Others

MiddleEastThailand

Malaysia

Taiwan

Japan

SouthKorea

China imports

Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand

Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance

Strong appetite for imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48

Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

-

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

Pric

e ($

tonn

e)

Tonn

es

Shore tank inventories

E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity

2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite

Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains

Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49

-80-60-40-20020406080100

500550600650700750800850900950

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15

Tonn

es

OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea

Imports from Asia increase

Imports lower due to higher China prices

S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015

Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates

US imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50

Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600Ja

n-14

Feb-

14M

ar-1

4A

pr-1

4M

ay-1

4Ju

n-14

Jul-1

4A

ug-1

4Se

p-14

Oct

-14

Nov

-14

Dec

-14

Jan-

15Fe

b-15

Mar

-15

Apr

-15

May

-15

Jun-

15Ju

l-15

Aug

-15

Sep-

15O

ct-1

5N

ov-1

5D

ec-1

5Ja

n-16

Feb-

16M

ar-1

6A

pr-1

6

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)Naphtha-Benzene

Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene

$346t $193t $230t

wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51

S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32

Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300

SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15

YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37

2015 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25

S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25

SK Global Chem Incheon 200

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16

OthersTaiwanChinaUS

S Korea exports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52

Outlook increased supply likely to head to China

Source ICIS industry

Company Location BZ Start up period

Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016

Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16

Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos

(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul

Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16

Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16

Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16

Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017

Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex

Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017

Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017

KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017

Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017

Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726

Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322

Product Company Location Capacity(kta)

BZ usage Start up period

SM

Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16

Donghao China 300 240 May-16

Phenol

PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16

Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16

Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17

PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017

Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017

CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17

CPL

Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16

China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16

Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16

MDI

Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017

Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017

Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017

Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972

Consumption within China in 2016 637 655

wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53

Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season

S Korea 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75

BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0

S Korea 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5

KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26

S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13

BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3

Japan 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36

Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12

BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0

Japan 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23

Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24

JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24

BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17

Source ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54

BZ demandBZ supply

bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China

bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ

bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene

bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units

bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher

bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure

bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed

bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand

Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55

Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom

Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom

Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom

Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom

wwwiciscom 56

Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets

Pricing information

- ButadieneC4s- Ethylene

Request your free sample report gtgt

We produce reliable price assessments and analyses covering Asian aromatics and olefins markets including price histories and a 12-month rolling price forecast enabling you to understand price drivers and settle your contract prices more confidently Our pricing coverage includes

- Mixed xylenes

- Propylene- Toluene

Real-time news serviceBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news including updates on plant capacities output and shutdowns

In-depth analysis of ChinaThe comprehensive studies on olefins and aromatics provide credible data and analysis to support your annual sales and strategy planning by giving you all of the following

- Comprehensive market overviews with detailed regional supply data and company profiles for 2013-2017

- In-depth downstream demand analysis and forecasts - Detailed import analysis between 2012-2014

Enquire about the annual studies

Request a free trial

Supply and demand data We give you an end-to-end perspective across the global petrochemical and refinery supply chain enabling you to grasp the local or regional scenario in a global context Data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2030

Request a free demo

- Benzene- Cumene- Paraxylene ndash Orthoxylene- Styrene

wwwiciscom 57

Bringing you faster more effective ways to improve productivity and decision making

Data ExpressAccess manage and analyse data easier than ever before with our Data Express solutions

bull Excel Plug-in - instantly update your worksheets in Excelbull API ndash stream the latest data directly to your systems

Set up email alerts for the most fluid markets to help you stay on top of market movements and enable you to react faster to price changes and other major developments

Market Alerts

Enquire about our market alerts

Build chart and track your formulas and keep them all in one place using real-time pricing data via the ICIS Dashboard

Formula Builder

Request a trial

Page 42: Asia Olefins & Aromatics Markets –A Turning of the Tide? · PDF fileBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news, ... Saudi Arabia 1,500 350 LDPE,1,080 solution PEQ2/mid 2016

wwwiciscom 43wwwiciscom 43

India TOL imports mainly from SE Asia and Iran

46

23

17

37

4

2014

Singapore Thailand Iran S Korea Europe Others

2015

50

24

9

37

7

Source customs data

Total= 288kt Total= 288kt

wwwiciscom 44wwwiciscom 44

NE Asia TOL supply could outstrip demand in H2 2016 on heavier downstream turnarounds permanent shutdowns

H2 2015 H2 2016

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S Oil Onsan old TDP Onsan 00 42 42 00 00 00

00 42 42 00 00 00FCFC Aroma 2 TDP Mailiao 67 200 00 00 00 00

67 200 00 00 00 00JX Nippon Oil TDP Mizushima A 00 00 75 75 00 00

00 00 75 75 00 0067 242 117 75 00 00

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecLotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 73 25 00KPIC Ulsan 00 00 00 83 00 00S Oil No 1 Onsan 00 146 146 00 00 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 167 333 00OCI Yeosu 00 00 00 33 00 00

00 146 146 357 358 00Mitsui Chemicals Chiba 00 00 00 83 83 00JX Nippon Oil Mizushima A 00 00 117 233 00 00Tonen General Wakayama 00 00 00 69 92 00

00 00 117 385 175 00FCFC Aroma No 2 Mailiao 83 250 00 00 00 00CPC No 6 Kaohsiung 40 00 20 80 20 00CPC No3 Kaoshiung 00 00 00 00 83 55

123 250 20 80 103 55123 396 283 822 636 55

Est TOL consumption loss from KR

Est TOL consumption loss from TW

Est TOL production loss from KR

Total est consumption loss from NE Asia

Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia

CONSUMPTION (mt)

PRODUCTION (mt)

Est TOL consumption loss from JPN

Est TOL production loss from JPN

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUlsan Aromatics Center TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 1000 500 00SKGC TDP Incheon 00 00 00 83 42 00LG Chem H D A (shut since Jan) Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38

38 38 38 1122 580 38Taiyo Oil TDP cut rate only Kikuma 42 07 00 00 00 00MSNC TDI (shut since April) Omuta 65 65 65 65 65 65

107 72 65 65 65 65145 110 103 1187 645 103

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSKGC Incheon 00 00 00 133 67 00

00 00 00 133 67 00Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 00 00 108 108 00 00JFEC Chiba 00 00 14 42 00 00

00 00 122 150 00 00CPC No 7 Kaohsiung 00 00 00 27 108 00CPC No 3 Kaohsiung 110 00 00 00 00 00

110 00 00 27 108 00110 00 122 310 175 00

Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia

PRODUCTION (mt)

CONSUMPTION (mt)

Est TOL consumption loss from KR

Est TOL consumption loss from JPNTotal est consumption loss from NE Asia

Est TOL production loss from KR

Est TOL production loss from JPN

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016

Qty

in to

nnes

Total est consumption loss from NE Asia Total est production loss from NE AsiaSource ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45

Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance

Source ICIS

bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016

bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread

bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption

bull Improvements in TOL blend values

bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading

bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer

bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers

bull Other competitively priced blendstocks

bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL

bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China

TOL supply

TOL demand

Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors

wwwiciscom 46

Drivers of benzene trade flow

wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47

-60-40-200204060

500550600650700750800850900

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea

China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016

020000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000180000200000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Tonn

es

Others

MiddleEastThailand

Malaysia

Taiwan

Japan

SouthKorea

China imports

Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand

Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance

Strong appetite for imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48

Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

-

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

Pric

e ($

tonn

e)

Tonn

es

Shore tank inventories

E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity

2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite

Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains

Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49

-80-60-40-20020406080100

500550600650700750800850900950

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15

Tonn

es

OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea

Imports from Asia increase

Imports lower due to higher China prices

S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015

Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates

US imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50

Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600Ja

n-14

Feb-

14M

ar-1

4A

pr-1

4M

ay-1

4Ju

n-14

Jul-1

4A

ug-1

4Se

p-14

Oct

-14

Nov

-14

Dec

-14

Jan-

15Fe

b-15

Mar

-15

Apr

-15

May

-15

Jun-

15Ju

l-15

Aug

-15

Sep-

15O

ct-1

5N

ov-1

5D

ec-1

5Ja

n-16

Feb-

16M

ar-1

6A

pr-1

6

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)Naphtha-Benzene

Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene

$346t $193t $230t

wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51

S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32

Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300

SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15

YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37

2015 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25

S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25

SK Global Chem Incheon 200

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16

OthersTaiwanChinaUS

S Korea exports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52

Outlook increased supply likely to head to China

Source ICIS industry

Company Location BZ Start up period

Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016

Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16

Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos

(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul

Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16

Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16

Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16

Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017

Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex

Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017

Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017

KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017

Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017

Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726

Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322

Product Company Location Capacity(kta)

BZ usage Start up period

SM

Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16

Donghao China 300 240 May-16

Phenol

PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16

Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16

Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17

PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017

Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017

CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17

CPL

Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16

China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16

Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16

MDI

Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017

Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017

Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017

Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972

Consumption within China in 2016 637 655

wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53

Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season

S Korea 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75

BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0

S Korea 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5

KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26

S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13

BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3

Japan 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36

Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12

BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0

Japan 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23

Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24

JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24

BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17

Source ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54

BZ demandBZ supply

bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China

bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ

bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene

bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units

bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher

bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure

bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed

bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand

Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55

Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom

Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom

Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom

Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom

wwwiciscom 56

Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets

Pricing information

- ButadieneC4s- Ethylene

Request your free sample report gtgt

We produce reliable price assessments and analyses covering Asian aromatics and olefins markets including price histories and a 12-month rolling price forecast enabling you to understand price drivers and settle your contract prices more confidently Our pricing coverage includes

- Mixed xylenes

- Propylene- Toluene

Real-time news serviceBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news including updates on plant capacities output and shutdowns

In-depth analysis of ChinaThe comprehensive studies on olefins and aromatics provide credible data and analysis to support your annual sales and strategy planning by giving you all of the following

- Comprehensive market overviews with detailed regional supply data and company profiles for 2013-2017

- In-depth downstream demand analysis and forecasts - Detailed import analysis between 2012-2014

Enquire about the annual studies

Request a free trial

Supply and demand data We give you an end-to-end perspective across the global petrochemical and refinery supply chain enabling you to grasp the local or regional scenario in a global context Data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2030

Request a free demo

- Benzene- Cumene- Paraxylene ndash Orthoxylene- Styrene

wwwiciscom 57

Bringing you faster more effective ways to improve productivity and decision making

Data ExpressAccess manage and analyse data easier than ever before with our Data Express solutions

bull Excel Plug-in - instantly update your worksheets in Excelbull API ndash stream the latest data directly to your systems

Set up email alerts for the most fluid markets to help you stay on top of market movements and enable you to react faster to price changes and other major developments

Market Alerts

Enquire about our market alerts

Build chart and track your formulas and keep them all in one place using real-time pricing data via the ICIS Dashboard

Formula Builder

Request a trial

Page 43: Asia Olefins & Aromatics Markets –A Turning of the Tide? · PDF fileBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news, ... Saudi Arabia 1,500 350 LDPE,1,080 solution PEQ2/mid 2016

wwwiciscom 44wwwiciscom 44

NE Asia TOL supply could outstrip demand in H2 2016 on heavier downstream turnarounds permanent shutdowns

H2 2015 H2 2016

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S Oil Onsan old TDP Onsan 00 42 42 00 00 00

00 42 42 00 00 00FCFC Aroma 2 TDP Mailiao 67 200 00 00 00 00

67 200 00 00 00 00JX Nippon Oil TDP Mizushima A 00 00 75 75 00 00

00 00 75 75 00 0067 242 117 75 00 00

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecLotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 73 25 00KPIC Ulsan 00 00 00 83 00 00S Oil No 1 Onsan 00 146 146 00 00 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 167 333 00OCI Yeosu 00 00 00 33 00 00

00 146 146 357 358 00Mitsui Chemicals Chiba 00 00 00 83 83 00JX Nippon Oil Mizushima A 00 00 117 233 00 00Tonen General Wakayama 00 00 00 69 92 00

00 00 117 385 175 00FCFC Aroma No 2 Mailiao 83 250 00 00 00 00CPC No 6 Kaohsiung 40 00 20 80 20 00CPC No3 Kaoshiung 00 00 00 00 83 55

123 250 20 80 103 55123 396 283 822 636 55

Est TOL consumption loss from KR

Est TOL consumption loss from TW

Est TOL production loss from KR

Total est consumption loss from NE Asia

Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia

CONSUMPTION (mt)

PRODUCTION (mt)

Est TOL consumption loss from JPN

Est TOL production loss from JPN

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUlsan Aromatics Center TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 1000 500 00SKGC TDP Incheon 00 00 00 83 42 00LG Chem H D A (shut since Jan) Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38

38 38 38 1122 580 38Taiyo Oil TDP cut rate only Kikuma 42 07 00 00 00 00MSNC TDI (shut since April) Omuta 65 65 65 65 65 65

107 72 65 65 65 65145 110 103 1187 645 103

Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSKGC Incheon 00 00 00 133 67 00

00 00 00 133 67 00Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 00 00 108 108 00 00JFEC Chiba 00 00 14 42 00 00

00 00 122 150 00 00CPC No 7 Kaohsiung 00 00 00 27 108 00CPC No 3 Kaohsiung 110 00 00 00 00 00

110 00 00 27 108 00110 00 122 310 175 00

Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia

PRODUCTION (mt)

CONSUMPTION (mt)

Est TOL consumption loss from KR

Est TOL consumption loss from JPNTotal est consumption loss from NE Asia

Est TOL production loss from KR

Est TOL production loss from JPN

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016

Qty

in to

nnes

Total est consumption loss from NE Asia Total est production loss from NE AsiaSource ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45

Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance

Source ICIS

bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016

bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread

bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption

bull Improvements in TOL blend values

bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading

bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer

bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers

bull Other competitively priced blendstocks

bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL

bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China

TOL supply

TOL demand

Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors

wwwiciscom 46

Drivers of benzene trade flow

wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47

-60-40-200204060

500550600650700750800850900

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea

China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016

020000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000180000200000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Tonn

es

Others

MiddleEastThailand

Malaysia

Taiwan

Japan

SouthKorea

China imports

Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand

Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance

Strong appetite for imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48

Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

-

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

Pric

e ($

tonn

e)

Tonn

es

Shore tank inventories

E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity

2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite

Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains

Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49

-80-60-40-20020406080100

500550600650700750800850900950

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15

Tonn

es

OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea

Imports from Asia increase

Imports lower due to higher China prices

S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015

Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates

US imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50

Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600Ja

n-14

Feb-

14M

ar-1

4A

pr-1

4M

ay-1

4Ju

n-14

Jul-1

4A

ug-1

4Se

p-14

Oct

-14

Nov

-14

Dec

-14

Jan-

15Fe

b-15

Mar

-15

Apr

-15

May

-15

Jun-

15Ju

l-15

Aug

-15

Sep-

15O

ct-1

5N

ov-1

5D

ec-1

5Ja

n-16

Feb-

16M

ar-1

6A

pr-1

6

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)Naphtha-Benzene

Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene

$346t $193t $230t

wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51

S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32

Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300

SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15

YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37

2015 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25

S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25

SK Global Chem Incheon 200

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16

OthersTaiwanChinaUS

S Korea exports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52

Outlook increased supply likely to head to China

Source ICIS industry

Company Location BZ Start up period

Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016

Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16

Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos

(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul

Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16

Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16

Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16

Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017

Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex

Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017

Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017

KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017

Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017

Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726

Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322

Product Company Location Capacity(kta)

BZ usage Start up period

SM

Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16

Donghao China 300 240 May-16

Phenol

PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16

Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16

Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17

PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017

Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017

CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17

CPL

Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16

China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16

Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16

MDI

Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017

Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017

Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017

Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972

Consumption within China in 2016 637 655

wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53

Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season

S Korea 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75

BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0

S Korea 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5

KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26

S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13

BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3

Japan 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36

Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12

BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0

Japan 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23

Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24

JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24

BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17

Source ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54

BZ demandBZ supply

bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China

bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ

bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene

bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units

bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher

bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure

bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed

bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand

Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55

Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom

Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom

Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom

Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom

wwwiciscom 56

Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets

Pricing information

- ButadieneC4s- Ethylene

Request your free sample report gtgt

We produce reliable price assessments and analyses covering Asian aromatics and olefins markets including price histories and a 12-month rolling price forecast enabling you to understand price drivers and settle your contract prices more confidently Our pricing coverage includes

- Mixed xylenes

- Propylene- Toluene

Real-time news serviceBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news including updates on plant capacities output and shutdowns

In-depth analysis of ChinaThe comprehensive studies on olefins and aromatics provide credible data and analysis to support your annual sales and strategy planning by giving you all of the following

- Comprehensive market overviews with detailed regional supply data and company profiles for 2013-2017

- In-depth downstream demand analysis and forecasts - Detailed import analysis between 2012-2014

Enquire about the annual studies

Request a free trial

Supply and demand data We give you an end-to-end perspective across the global petrochemical and refinery supply chain enabling you to grasp the local or regional scenario in a global context Data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2030

Request a free demo

- Benzene- Cumene- Paraxylene ndash Orthoxylene- Styrene

wwwiciscom 57

Bringing you faster more effective ways to improve productivity and decision making

Data ExpressAccess manage and analyse data easier than ever before with our Data Express solutions

bull Excel Plug-in - instantly update your worksheets in Excelbull API ndash stream the latest data directly to your systems

Set up email alerts for the most fluid markets to help you stay on top of market movements and enable you to react faster to price changes and other major developments

Market Alerts

Enquire about our market alerts

Build chart and track your formulas and keep them all in one place using real-time pricing data via the ICIS Dashboard

Formula Builder

Request a trial

Page 44: Asia Olefins & Aromatics Markets –A Turning of the Tide? · PDF fileBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news, ... Saudi Arabia 1,500 350 LDPE,1,080 solution PEQ2/mid 2016

wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45

Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance

Source ICIS

bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016

bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread

bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption

bull Improvements in TOL blend values

bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading

bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer

bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers

bull Other competitively priced blendstocks

bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL

bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China

TOL supply

TOL demand

Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors

wwwiciscom 46

Drivers of benzene trade flow

wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47

-60-40-200204060

500550600650700750800850900

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea

China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016

020000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000180000200000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Tonn

es

Others

MiddleEastThailand

Malaysia

Taiwan

Japan

SouthKorea

China imports

Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand

Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance

Strong appetite for imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48

Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

-

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

Pric

e ($

tonn

e)

Tonn

es

Shore tank inventories

E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity

2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite

Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains

Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49

-80-60-40-20020406080100

500550600650700750800850900950

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15

Tonn

es

OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea

Imports from Asia increase

Imports lower due to higher China prices

S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015

Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates

US imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50

Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600Ja

n-14

Feb-

14M

ar-1

4A

pr-1

4M

ay-1

4Ju

n-14

Jul-1

4A

ug-1

4Se

p-14

Oct

-14

Nov

-14

Dec

-14

Jan-

15Fe

b-15

Mar

-15

Apr

-15

May

-15

Jun-

15Ju

l-15

Aug

-15

Sep-

15O

ct-1

5N

ov-1

5D

ec-1

5Ja

n-16

Feb-

16M

ar-1

6A

pr-1

6

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)Naphtha-Benzene

Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene

$346t $193t $230t

wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51

S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32

Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300

SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15

YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37

2015 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25

S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25

SK Global Chem Incheon 200

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16

OthersTaiwanChinaUS

S Korea exports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52

Outlook increased supply likely to head to China

Source ICIS industry

Company Location BZ Start up period

Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016

Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16

Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos

(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul

Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16

Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16

Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16

Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017

Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex

Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017

Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017

KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017

Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017

Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726

Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322

Product Company Location Capacity(kta)

BZ usage Start up period

SM

Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16

Donghao China 300 240 May-16

Phenol

PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16

Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16

Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17

PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017

Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017

CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17

CPL

Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16

China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16

Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16

MDI

Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017

Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017

Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017

Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972

Consumption within China in 2016 637 655

wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53

Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season

S Korea 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75

BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0

S Korea 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5

KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26

S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13

BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3

Japan 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36

Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12

BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0

Japan 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23

Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24

JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24

BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17

Source ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54

BZ demandBZ supply

bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China

bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ

bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene

bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units

bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher

bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure

bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed

bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand

Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55

Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom

Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom

Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom

Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom

wwwiciscom 56

Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets

Pricing information

- ButadieneC4s- Ethylene

Request your free sample report gtgt

We produce reliable price assessments and analyses covering Asian aromatics and olefins markets including price histories and a 12-month rolling price forecast enabling you to understand price drivers and settle your contract prices more confidently Our pricing coverage includes

- Mixed xylenes

- Propylene- Toluene

Real-time news serviceBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news including updates on plant capacities output and shutdowns

In-depth analysis of ChinaThe comprehensive studies on olefins and aromatics provide credible data and analysis to support your annual sales and strategy planning by giving you all of the following

- Comprehensive market overviews with detailed regional supply data and company profiles for 2013-2017

- In-depth downstream demand analysis and forecasts - Detailed import analysis between 2012-2014

Enquire about the annual studies

Request a free trial

Supply and demand data We give you an end-to-end perspective across the global petrochemical and refinery supply chain enabling you to grasp the local or regional scenario in a global context Data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2030

Request a free demo

- Benzene- Cumene- Paraxylene ndash Orthoxylene- Styrene

wwwiciscom 57

Bringing you faster more effective ways to improve productivity and decision making

Data ExpressAccess manage and analyse data easier than ever before with our Data Express solutions

bull Excel Plug-in - instantly update your worksheets in Excelbull API ndash stream the latest data directly to your systems

Set up email alerts for the most fluid markets to help you stay on top of market movements and enable you to react faster to price changes and other major developments

Market Alerts

Enquire about our market alerts

Build chart and track your formulas and keep them all in one place using real-time pricing data via the ICIS Dashboard

Formula Builder

Request a trial

Page 45: Asia Olefins & Aromatics Markets –A Turning of the Tide? · PDF fileBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news, ... Saudi Arabia 1,500 350 LDPE,1,080 solution PEQ2/mid 2016

wwwiciscom 46

Drivers of benzene trade flow

wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47

-60-40-200204060

500550600650700750800850900

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea

China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016

020000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000180000200000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Tonn

es

Others

MiddleEastThailand

Malaysia

Taiwan

Japan

SouthKorea

China imports

Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand

Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance

Strong appetite for imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48

Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

-

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

Pric

e ($

tonn

e)

Tonn

es

Shore tank inventories

E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity

2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite

Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains

Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49

-80-60-40-20020406080100

500550600650700750800850900950

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15

Tonn

es

OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea

Imports from Asia increase

Imports lower due to higher China prices

S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015

Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates

US imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50

Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600Ja

n-14

Feb-

14M

ar-1

4A

pr-1

4M

ay-1

4Ju

n-14

Jul-1

4A

ug-1

4Se

p-14

Oct

-14

Nov

-14

Dec

-14

Jan-

15Fe

b-15

Mar

-15

Apr

-15

May

-15

Jun-

15Ju

l-15

Aug

-15

Sep-

15O

ct-1

5N

ov-1

5D

ec-1

5Ja

n-16

Feb-

16M

ar-1

6A

pr-1

6

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)Naphtha-Benzene

Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene

$346t $193t $230t

wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51

S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32

Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300

SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15

YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37

2015 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25

S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25

SK Global Chem Incheon 200

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16

OthersTaiwanChinaUS

S Korea exports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52

Outlook increased supply likely to head to China

Source ICIS industry

Company Location BZ Start up period

Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016

Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16

Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos

(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul

Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16

Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16

Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16

Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017

Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex

Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017

Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017

KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017

Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017

Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726

Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322

Product Company Location Capacity(kta)

BZ usage Start up period

SM

Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16

Donghao China 300 240 May-16

Phenol

PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16

Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16

Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17

PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017

Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017

CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17

CPL

Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16

China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16

Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16

MDI

Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017

Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017

Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017

Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972

Consumption within China in 2016 637 655

wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53

Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season

S Korea 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75

BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0

S Korea 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5

KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26

S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13

BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3

Japan 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36

Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12

BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0

Japan 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23

Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24

JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24

BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17

Source ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54

BZ demandBZ supply

bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China

bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ

bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene

bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units

bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher

bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure

bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed

bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand

Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55

Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom

Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom

Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom

Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom

wwwiciscom 56

Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets

Pricing information

- ButadieneC4s- Ethylene

Request your free sample report gtgt

We produce reliable price assessments and analyses covering Asian aromatics and olefins markets including price histories and a 12-month rolling price forecast enabling you to understand price drivers and settle your contract prices more confidently Our pricing coverage includes

- Mixed xylenes

- Propylene- Toluene

Real-time news serviceBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news including updates on plant capacities output and shutdowns

In-depth analysis of ChinaThe comprehensive studies on olefins and aromatics provide credible data and analysis to support your annual sales and strategy planning by giving you all of the following

- Comprehensive market overviews with detailed regional supply data and company profiles for 2013-2017

- In-depth downstream demand analysis and forecasts - Detailed import analysis between 2012-2014

Enquire about the annual studies

Request a free trial

Supply and demand data We give you an end-to-end perspective across the global petrochemical and refinery supply chain enabling you to grasp the local or regional scenario in a global context Data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2030

Request a free demo

- Benzene- Cumene- Paraxylene ndash Orthoxylene- Styrene

wwwiciscom 57

Bringing you faster more effective ways to improve productivity and decision making

Data ExpressAccess manage and analyse data easier than ever before with our Data Express solutions

bull Excel Plug-in - instantly update your worksheets in Excelbull API ndash stream the latest data directly to your systems

Set up email alerts for the most fluid markets to help you stay on top of market movements and enable you to react faster to price changes and other major developments

Market Alerts

Enquire about our market alerts

Build chart and track your formulas and keep them all in one place using real-time pricing data via the ICIS Dashboard

Formula Builder

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Page 46: Asia Olefins & Aromatics Markets –A Turning of the Tide? · PDF fileBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news, ... Saudi Arabia 1,500 350 LDPE,1,080 solution PEQ2/mid 2016

wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47

-60-40-200204060

500550600650700750800850900

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea

China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016

020000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000180000200000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Tonn

es

Others

MiddleEastThailand

Malaysia

Taiwan

Japan

SouthKorea

China imports

Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand

Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance

Strong appetite for imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48

Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

-

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

Pric

e ($

tonn

e)

Tonn

es

Shore tank inventories

E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity

2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite

Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains

Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49

-80-60-40-20020406080100

500550600650700750800850900950

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15

Tonn

es

OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea

Imports from Asia increase

Imports lower due to higher China prices

S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015

Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates

US imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50

Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600Ja

n-14

Feb-

14M

ar-1

4A

pr-1

4M

ay-1

4Ju

n-14

Jul-1

4A

ug-1

4Se

p-14

Oct

-14

Nov

-14

Dec

-14

Jan-

15Fe

b-15

Mar

-15

Apr

-15

May

-15

Jun-

15Ju

l-15

Aug

-15

Sep-

15O

ct-1

5N

ov-1

5D

ec-1

5Ja

n-16

Feb-

16M

ar-1

6A

pr-1

6

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)Naphtha-Benzene

Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene

$346t $193t $230t

wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51

S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32

Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300

SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15

YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37

2015 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25

S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25

SK Global Chem Incheon 200

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16

OthersTaiwanChinaUS

S Korea exports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52

Outlook increased supply likely to head to China

Source ICIS industry

Company Location BZ Start up period

Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016

Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16

Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos

(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul

Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16

Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16

Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16

Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017

Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex

Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017

Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017

KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017

Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017

Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726

Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322

Product Company Location Capacity(kta)

BZ usage Start up period

SM

Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16

Donghao China 300 240 May-16

Phenol

PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16

Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16

Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17

PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017

Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017

CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17

CPL

Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16

China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16

Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16

MDI

Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017

Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017

Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017

Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972

Consumption within China in 2016 637 655

wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53

Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season

S Korea 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75

BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0

S Korea 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5

KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26

S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13

BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3

Japan 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36

Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12

BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0

Japan 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23

Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24

JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24

BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17

Source ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54

BZ demandBZ supply

bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China

bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ

bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene

bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units

bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher

bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure

bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed

bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand

Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55

Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom

Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom

Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom

Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom

wwwiciscom 56

Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets

Pricing information

- ButadieneC4s- Ethylene

Request your free sample report gtgt

We produce reliable price assessments and analyses covering Asian aromatics and olefins markets including price histories and a 12-month rolling price forecast enabling you to understand price drivers and settle your contract prices more confidently Our pricing coverage includes

- Mixed xylenes

- Propylene- Toluene

Real-time news serviceBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news including updates on plant capacities output and shutdowns

In-depth analysis of ChinaThe comprehensive studies on olefins and aromatics provide credible data and analysis to support your annual sales and strategy planning by giving you all of the following

- Comprehensive market overviews with detailed regional supply data and company profiles for 2013-2017

- In-depth downstream demand analysis and forecasts - Detailed import analysis between 2012-2014

Enquire about the annual studies

Request a free trial

Supply and demand data We give you an end-to-end perspective across the global petrochemical and refinery supply chain enabling you to grasp the local or regional scenario in a global context Data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2030

Request a free demo

- Benzene- Cumene- Paraxylene ndash Orthoxylene- Styrene

wwwiciscom 57

Bringing you faster more effective ways to improve productivity and decision making

Data ExpressAccess manage and analyse data easier than ever before with our Data Express solutions

bull Excel Plug-in - instantly update your worksheets in Excelbull API ndash stream the latest data directly to your systems

Set up email alerts for the most fluid markets to help you stay on top of market movements and enable you to react faster to price changes and other major developments

Market Alerts

Enquire about our market alerts

Build chart and track your formulas and keep them all in one place using real-time pricing data via the ICIS Dashboard

Formula Builder

Request a trial

Page 47: Asia Olefins & Aromatics Markets –A Turning of the Tide? · PDF fileBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news, ... Saudi Arabia 1,500 350 LDPE,1,080 solution PEQ2/mid 2016

wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48

Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

-

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

Pric

e ($

tonn

e)

Tonn

es

Shore tank inventories

E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity

2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite

Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains

Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49

-80-60-40-20020406080100

500550600650700750800850900950

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15

Tonn

es

OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea

Imports from Asia increase

Imports lower due to higher China prices

S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015

Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates

US imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50

Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600Ja

n-14

Feb-

14M

ar-1

4A

pr-1

4M

ay-1

4Ju

n-14

Jul-1

4A

ug-1

4Se

p-14

Oct

-14

Nov

-14

Dec

-14

Jan-

15Fe

b-15

Mar

-15

Apr

-15

May

-15

Jun-

15Ju

l-15

Aug

-15

Sep-

15O

ct-1

5N

ov-1

5D

ec-1

5Ja

n-16

Feb-

16M

ar-1

6A

pr-1

6

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)Naphtha-Benzene

Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene

$346t $193t $230t

wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51

S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32

Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300

SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15

YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37

2015 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25

S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25

SK Global Chem Incheon 200

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16

OthersTaiwanChinaUS

S Korea exports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52

Outlook increased supply likely to head to China

Source ICIS industry

Company Location BZ Start up period

Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016

Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16

Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos

(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul

Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16

Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16

Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16

Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017

Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex

Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017

Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017

KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017

Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017

Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726

Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322

Product Company Location Capacity(kta)

BZ usage Start up period

SM

Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16

Donghao China 300 240 May-16

Phenol

PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16

Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16

Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17

PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017

Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017

CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17

CPL

Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16

China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16

Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16

MDI

Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017

Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017

Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017

Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972

Consumption within China in 2016 637 655

wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53

Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season

S Korea 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75

BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0

S Korea 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5

KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26

S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13

BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3

Japan 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36

Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12

BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0

Japan 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23

Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24

JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24

BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17

Source ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54

BZ demandBZ supply

bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China

bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ

bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene

bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units

bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher

bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure

bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed

bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand

Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55

Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom

Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom

Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom

Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom

wwwiciscom 56

Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets

Pricing information

- ButadieneC4s- Ethylene

Request your free sample report gtgt

We produce reliable price assessments and analyses covering Asian aromatics and olefins markets including price histories and a 12-month rolling price forecast enabling you to understand price drivers and settle your contract prices more confidently Our pricing coverage includes

- Mixed xylenes

- Propylene- Toluene

Real-time news serviceBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news including updates on plant capacities output and shutdowns

In-depth analysis of ChinaThe comprehensive studies on olefins and aromatics provide credible data and analysis to support your annual sales and strategy planning by giving you all of the following

- Comprehensive market overviews with detailed regional supply data and company profiles for 2013-2017

- In-depth downstream demand analysis and forecasts - Detailed import analysis between 2012-2014

Enquire about the annual studies

Request a free trial

Supply and demand data We give you an end-to-end perspective across the global petrochemical and refinery supply chain enabling you to grasp the local or regional scenario in a global context Data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2030

Request a free demo

- Benzene- Cumene- Paraxylene ndash Orthoxylene- Styrene

wwwiciscom 57

Bringing you faster more effective ways to improve productivity and decision making

Data ExpressAccess manage and analyse data easier than ever before with our Data Express solutions

bull Excel Plug-in - instantly update your worksheets in Excelbull API ndash stream the latest data directly to your systems

Set up email alerts for the most fluid markets to help you stay on top of market movements and enable you to react faster to price changes and other major developments

Market Alerts

Enquire about our market alerts

Build chart and track your formulas and keep them all in one place using real-time pricing data via the ICIS Dashboard

Formula Builder

Request a trial

Page 48: Asia Olefins & Aromatics Markets –A Turning of the Tide? · PDF fileBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news, ... Saudi Arabia 1,500 350 LDPE,1,080 solution PEQ2/mid 2016

wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49

-80-60-40-20020406080100

500550600650700750800850900950

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15

Tonn

es

OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea

Imports from Asia increase

Imports lower due to higher China prices

S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015

Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates

US imports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50

Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600Ja

n-14

Feb-

14M

ar-1

4A

pr-1

4M

ay-1

4Ju

n-14

Jul-1

4A

ug-1

4Se

p-14

Oct

-14

Nov

-14

Dec

-14

Jan-

15Fe

b-15

Mar

-15

Apr

-15

May

-15

Jun-

15Ju

l-15

Aug

-15

Sep-

15O

ct-1

5N

ov-1

5D

ec-1

5Ja

n-16

Feb-

16M

ar-1

6A

pr-1

6

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)Naphtha-Benzene

Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene

$346t $193t $230t

wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51

S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32

Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300

SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15

YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37

2015 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25

S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25

SK Global Chem Incheon 200

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16

OthersTaiwanChinaUS

S Korea exports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52

Outlook increased supply likely to head to China

Source ICIS industry

Company Location BZ Start up period

Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016

Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16

Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos

(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul

Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16

Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16

Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16

Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017

Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex

Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017

Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017

KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017

Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017

Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726

Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322

Product Company Location Capacity(kta)

BZ usage Start up period

SM

Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16

Donghao China 300 240 May-16

Phenol

PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16

Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16

Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17

PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017

Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017

CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17

CPL

Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16

China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16

Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16

MDI

Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017

Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017

Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017

Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972

Consumption within China in 2016 637 655

wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53

Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season

S Korea 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75

BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0

S Korea 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5

KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26

S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13

BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3

Japan 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36

Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12

BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0

Japan 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23

Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24

JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24

BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17

Source ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54

BZ demandBZ supply

bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China

bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ

bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene

bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units

bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher

bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure

bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed

bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand

Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55

Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom

Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom

Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom

Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom

wwwiciscom 56

Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets

Pricing information

- ButadieneC4s- Ethylene

Request your free sample report gtgt

We produce reliable price assessments and analyses covering Asian aromatics and olefins markets including price histories and a 12-month rolling price forecast enabling you to understand price drivers and settle your contract prices more confidently Our pricing coverage includes

- Mixed xylenes

- Propylene- Toluene

Real-time news serviceBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news including updates on plant capacities output and shutdowns

In-depth analysis of ChinaThe comprehensive studies on olefins and aromatics provide credible data and analysis to support your annual sales and strategy planning by giving you all of the following

- Comprehensive market overviews with detailed regional supply data and company profiles for 2013-2017

- In-depth downstream demand analysis and forecasts - Detailed import analysis between 2012-2014

Enquire about the annual studies

Request a free trial

Supply and demand data We give you an end-to-end perspective across the global petrochemical and refinery supply chain enabling you to grasp the local or regional scenario in a global context Data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2030

Request a free demo

- Benzene- Cumene- Paraxylene ndash Orthoxylene- Styrene

wwwiciscom 57

Bringing you faster more effective ways to improve productivity and decision making

Data ExpressAccess manage and analyse data easier than ever before with our Data Express solutions

bull Excel Plug-in - instantly update your worksheets in Excelbull API ndash stream the latest data directly to your systems

Set up email alerts for the most fluid markets to help you stay on top of market movements and enable you to react faster to price changes and other major developments

Market Alerts

Enquire about our market alerts

Build chart and track your formulas and keep them all in one place using real-time pricing data via the ICIS Dashboard

Formula Builder

Request a trial

Page 49: Asia Olefins & Aromatics Markets –A Turning of the Tide? · PDF fileBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news, ... Saudi Arabia 1,500 350 LDPE,1,080 solution PEQ2/mid 2016

wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50

Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600Ja

n-14

Feb-

14M

ar-1

4A

pr-1

4M

ay-1

4Ju

n-14

Jul-1

4A

ug-1

4Se

p-14

Oct

-14

Nov

-14

Dec

-14

Jan-

15Fe

b-15

Mar

-15

Apr

-15

May

-15

Jun-

15Ju

l-15

Aug

-15

Sep-

15O

ct-1

5N

ov-1

5D

ec-1

5Ja

n-16

Feb-

16M

ar-1

6A

pr-1

6

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)

Pric

es ($

tonn

e)Naphtha-Benzene

Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene

$346t $193t $230t

wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51

S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32

Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300

SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15

YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37

2015 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25

S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25

SK Global Chem Incheon 200

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16

OthersTaiwanChinaUS

S Korea exports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52

Outlook increased supply likely to head to China

Source ICIS industry

Company Location BZ Start up period

Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016

Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16

Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos

(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul

Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16

Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16

Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16

Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017

Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex

Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017

Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017

KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017

Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017

Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726

Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322

Product Company Location Capacity(kta)

BZ usage Start up period

SM

Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16

Donghao China 300 240 May-16

Phenol

PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16

Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16

Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17

PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017

Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017

CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17

CPL

Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16

China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16

Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16

MDI

Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017

Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017

Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017

Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972

Consumption within China in 2016 637 655

wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53

Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season

S Korea 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75

BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0

S Korea 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5

KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26

S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13

BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3

Japan 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36

Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12

BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0

Japan 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23

Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24

JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24

BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17

Source ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54

BZ demandBZ supply

bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China

bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ

bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene

bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units

bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher

bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure

bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed

bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand

Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55

Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom

Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom

Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom

Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom

wwwiciscom 56

Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets

Pricing information

- ButadieneC4s- Ethylene

Request your free sample report gtgt

We produce reliable price assessments and analyses covering Asian aromatics and olefins markets including price histories and a 12-month rolling price forecast enabling you to understand price drivers and settle your contract prices more confidently Our pricing coverage includes

- Mixed xylenes

- Propylene- Toluene

Real-time news serviceBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news including updates on plant capacities output and shutdowns

In-depth analysis of ChinaThe comprehensive studies on olefins and aromatics provide credible data and analysis to support your annual sales and strategy planning by giving you all of the following

- Comprehensive market overviews with detailed regional supply data and company profiles for 2013-2017

- In-depth downstream demand analysis and forecasts - Detailed import analysis between 2012-2014

Enquire about the annual studies

Request a free trial

Supply and demand data We give you an end-to-end perspective across the global petrochemical and refinery supply chain enabling you to grasp the local or regional scenario in a global context Data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2030

Request a free demo

- Benzene- Cumene- Paraxylene ndash Orthoxylene- Styrene

wwwiciscom 57

Bringing you faster more effective ways to improve productivity and decision making

Data ExpressAccess manage and analyse data easier than ever before with our Data Express solutions

bull Excel Plug-in - instantly update your worksheets in Excelbull API ndash stream the latest data directly to your systems

Set up email alerts for the most fluid markets to help you stay on top of market movements and enable you to react faster to price changes and other major developments

Market Alerts

Enquire about our market alerts

Build chart and track your formulas and keep them all in one place using real-time pricing data via the ICIS Dashboard

Formula Builder

Request a trial

Page 50: Asia Olefins & Aromatics Markets –A Turning of the Tide? · PDF fileBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news, ... Saudi Arabia 1,500 350 LDPE,1,080 solution PEQ2/mid 2016

wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51

S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32

Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300

SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15

YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37

2015 H1

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25

S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25

SK Global Chem Incheon 200

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16

OthersTaiwanChinaUS

S Korea exports

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52

Outlook increased supply likely to head to China

Source ICIS industry

Company Location BZ Start up period

Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016

Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16

Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos

(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul

Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16

Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16

Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16

Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017

Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex

Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017

Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017

KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017

Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017

Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726

Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322

Product Company Location Capacity(kta)

BZ usage Start up period

SM

Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16

Donghao China 300 240 May-16

Phenol

PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16

Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16

Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17

PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017

Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017

CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17

CPL

Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16

China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16

Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16

MDI

Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017

Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017

Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017

Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972

Consumption within China in 2016 637 655

wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53

Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season

S Korea 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75

BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0

S Korea 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5

KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26

S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13

BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3

Japan 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36

Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12

BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0

Japan 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23

Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24

JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24

BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17

Source ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54

BZ demandBZ supply

bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China

bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ

bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene

bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units

bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher

bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure

bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed

bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand

Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55

Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom

Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom

Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom

Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom

wwwiciscom 56

Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets

Pricing information

- ButadieneC4s- Ethylene

Request your free sample report gtgt

We produce reliable price assessments and analyses covering Asian aromatics and olefins markets including price histories and a 12-month rolling price forecast enabling you to understand price drivers and settle your contract prices more confidently Our pricing coverage includes

- Mixed xylenes

- Propylene- Toluene

Real-time news serviceBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news including updates on plant capacities output and shutdowns

In-depth analysis of ChinaThe comprehensive studies on olefins and aromatics provide credible data and analysis to support your annual sales and strategy planning by giving you all of the following

- Comprehensive market overviews with detailed regional supply data and company profiles for 2013-2017

- In-depth downstream demand analysis and forecasts - Detailed import analysis between 2012-2014

Enquire about the annual studies

Request a free trial

Supply and demand data We give you an end-to-end perspective across the global petrochemical and refinery supply chain enabling you to grasp the local or regional scenario in a global context Data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2030

Request a free demo

- Benzene- Cumene- Paraxylene ndash Orthoxylene- Styrene

wwwiciscom 57

Bringing you faster more effective ways to improve productivity and decision making

Data ExpressAccess manage and analyse data easier than ever before with our Data Express solutions

bull Excel Plug-in - instantly update your worksheets in Excelbull API ndash stream the latest data directly to your systems

Set up email alerts for the most fluid markets to help you stay on top of market movements and enable you to react faster to price changes and other major developments

Market Alerts

Enquire about our market alerts

Build chart and track your formulas and keep them all in one place using real-time pricing data via the ICIS Dashboard

Formula Builder

Request a trial

Page 51: Asia Olefins & Aromatics Markets –A Turning of the Tide? · PDF fileBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news, ... Saudi Arabia 1,500 350 LDPE,1,080 solution PEQ2/mid 2016

wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52

Outlook increased supply likely to head to China

Source ICIS industry

Company Location BZ Start up period

Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016

Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16

Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos

(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul

Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16

Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16

Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16

Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017

Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex

Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017

Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017

KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017

Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017

Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726

Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322

Product Company Location Capacity(kta)

BZ usage Start up period

SM

Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16

Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16

Donghao China 300 240 May-16

Phenol

PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16

Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16

Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17

PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017

Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017

CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17

CPL

Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16

China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16

Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16

Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16

MDI

Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017

Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017

Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017

Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972

Consumption within China in 2016 637 655

wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53

Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season

S Korea 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75

BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0

S Korea 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5

KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26

S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13

BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3

Japan 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36

Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12

BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0

Japan 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23

Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24

JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24

BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17

Source ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54

BZ demandBZ supply

bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China

bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ

bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene

bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units

bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher

bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure

bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed

bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand

Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55

Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom

Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom

Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom

Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom

wwwiciscom 56

Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets

Pricing information

- ButadieneC4s- Ethylene

Request your free sample report gtgt

We produce reliable price assessments and analyses covering Asian aromatics and olefins markets including price histories and a 12-month rolling price forecast enabling you to understand price drivers and settle your contract prices more confidently Our pricing coverage includes

- Mixed xylenes

- Propylene- Toluene

Real-time news serviceBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news including updates on plant capacities output and shutdowns

In-depth analysis of ChinaThe comprehensive studies on olefins and aromatics provide credible data and analysis to support your annual sales and strategy planning by giving you all of the following

- Comprehensive market overviews with detailed regional supply data and company profiles for 2013-2017

- In-depth downstream demand analysis and forecasts - Detailed import analysis between 2012-2014

Enquire about the annual studies

Request a free trial

Supply and demand data We give you an end-to-end perspective across the global petrochemical and refinery supply chain enabling you to grasp the local or regional scenario in a global context Data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2030

Request a free demo

- Benzene- Cumene- Paraxylene ndash Orthoxylene- Styrene

wwwiciscom 57

Bringing you faster more effective ways to improve productivity and decision making

Data ExpressAccess manage and analyse data easier than ever before with our Data Express solutions

bull Excel Plug-in - instantly update your worksheets in Excelbull API ndash stream the latest data directly to your systems

Set up email alerts for the most fluid markets to help you stay on top of market movements and enable you to react faster to price changes and other major developments

Market Alerts

Enquire about our market alerts

Build chart and track your formulas and keep them all in one place using real-time pricing data via the ICIS Dashboard

Formula Builder

Request a trial

Page 52: Asia Olefins & Aromatics Markets –A Turning of the Tide? · PDF fileBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news, ... Saudi Arabia 1,500 350 LDPE,1,080 solution PEQ2/mid 2016

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Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season

S Korea 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75

BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0

S Korea 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5

KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26

S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4

YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13

BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3

Japan 2016 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36

Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12

BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0

Japan 2015 H2

Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23

Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24

JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8

Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24

BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17

Source ICIS industry

wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54

BZ demandBZ supply

bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China

bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ

bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene

bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units

bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher

bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure

bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed

bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand

Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55

Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom

Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom

Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom

Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom

wwwiciscom 56

Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets

Pricing information

- ButadieneC4s- Ethylene

Request your free sample report gtgt

We produce reliable price assessments and analyses covering Asian aromatics and olefins markets including price histories and a 12-month rolling price forecast enabling you to understand price drivers and settle your contract prices more confidently Our pricing coverage includes

- Mixed xylenes

- Propylene- Toluene

Real-time news serviceBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news including updates on plant capacities output and shutdowns

In-depth analysis of ChinaThe comprehensive studies on olefins and aromatics provide credible data and analysis to support your annual sales and strategy planning by giving you all of the following

- Comprehensive market overviews with detailed regional supply data and company profiles for 2013-2017

- In-depth downstream demand analysis and forecasts - Detailed import analysis between 2012-2014

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Supply and demand data We give you an end-to-end perspective across the global petrochemical and refinery supply chain enabling you to grasp the local or regional scenario in a global context Data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2030

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- Benzene- Cumene- Paraxylene ndash Orthoxylene- Styrene

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Bringing you faster more effective ways to improve productivity and decision making

Data ExpressAccess manage and analyse data easier than ever before with our Data Express solutions

bull Excel Plug-in - instantly update your worksheets in Excelbull API ndash stream the latest data directly to your systems

Set up email alerts for the most fluid markets to help you stay on top of market movements and enable you to react faster to price changes and other major developments

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Page 53: Asia Olefins & Aromatics Markets –A Turning of the Tide? · PDF fileBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news, ... Saudi Arabia 1,500 350 LDPE,1,080 solution PEQ2/mid 2016

wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54

BZ demandBZ supply

bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China

bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ

bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene

bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units

bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher

bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure

bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed

bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand

Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance

Source ICIS

wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55

Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom

Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom

Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom

Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom

wwwiciscom 56

Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets

Pricing information

- ButadieneC4s- Ethylene

Request your free sample report gtgt

We produce reliable price assessments and analyses covering Asian aromatics and olefins markets including price histories and a 12-month rolling price forecast enabling you to understand price drivers and settle your contract prices more confidently Our pricing coverage includes

- Mixed xylenes

- Propylene- Toluene

Real-time news serviceBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news including updates on plant capacities output and shutdowns

In-depth analysis of ChinaThe comprehensive studies on olefins and aromatics provide credible data and analysis to support your annual sales and strategy planning by giving you all of the following

- Comprehensive market overviews with detailed regional supply data and company profiles for 2013-2017

- In-depth downstream demand analysis and forecasts - Detailed import analysis between 2012-2014

Enquire about the annual studies

Request a free trial

Supply and demand data We give you an end-to-end perspective across the global petrochemical and refinery supply chain enabling you to grasp the local or regional scenario in a global context Data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2030

Request a free demo

- Benzene- Cumene- Paraxylene ndash Orthoxylene- Styrene

wwwiciscom 57

Bringing you faster more effective ways to improve productivity and decision making

Data ExpressAccess manage and analyse data easier than ever before with our Data Express solutions

bull Excel Plug-in - instantly update your worksheets in Excelbull API ndash stream the latest data directly to your systems

Set up email alerts for the most fluid markets to help you stay on top of market movements and enable you to react faster to price changes and other major developments

Market Alerts

Enquire about our market alerts

Build chart and track your formulas and keep them all in one place using real-time pricing data via the ICIS Dashboard

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Page 54: Asia Olefins & Aromatics Markets –A Turning of the Tide? · PDF fileBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news, ... Saudi Arabia 1,500 350 LDPE,1,080 solution PEQ2/mid 2016

wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55

Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom

Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom

Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom

Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom

wwwiciscom 56

Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets

Pricing information

- ButadieneC4s- Ethylene

Request your free sample report gtgt

We produce reliable price assessments and analyses covering Asian aromatics and olefins markets including price histories and a 12-month rolling price forecast enabling you to understand price drivers and settle your contract prices more confidently Our pricing coverage includes

- Mixed xylenes

- Propylene- Toluene

Real-time news serviceBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news including updates on plant capacities output and shutdowns

In-depth analysis of ChinaThe comprehensive studies on olefins and aromatics provide credible data and analysis to support your annual sales and strategy planning by giving you all of the following

- Comprehensive market overviews with detailed regional supply data and company profiles for 2013-2017

- In-depth downstream demand analysis and forecasts - Detailed import analysis between 2012-2014

Enquire about the annual studies

Request a free trial

Supply and demand data We give you an end-to-end perspective across the global petrochemical and refinery supply chain enabling you to grasp the local or regional scenario in a global context Data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2030

Request a free demo

- Benzene- Cumene- Paraxylene ndash Orthoxylene- Styrene

wwwiciscom 57

Bringing you faster more effective ways to improve productivity and decision making

Data ExpressAccess manage and analyse data easier than ever before with our Data Express solutions

bull Excel Plug-in - instantly update your worksheets in Excelbull API ndash stream the latest data directly to your systems

Set up email alerts for the most fluid markets to help you stay on top of market movements and enable you to react faster to price changes and other major developments

Market Alerts

Enquire about our market alerts

Build chart and track your formulas and keep them all in one place using real-time pricing data via the ICIS Dashboard

Formula Builder

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Page 55: Asia Olefins & Aromatics Markets –A Turning of the Tide? · PDF fileBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news, ... Saudi Arabia 1,500 350 LDPE,1,080 solution PEQ2/mid 2016

wwwiciscom 56

Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets

Pricing information

- ButadieneC4s- Ethylene

Request your free sample report gtgt

We produce reliable price assessments and analyses covering Asian aromatics and olefins markets including price histories and a 12-month rolling price forecast enabling you to understand price drivers and settle your contract prices more confidently Our pricing coverage includes

- Mixed xylenes

- Propylene- Toluene

Real-time news serviceBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news including updates on plant capacities output and shutdowns

In-depth analysis of ChinaThe comprehensive studies on olefins and aromatics provide credible data and analysis to support your annual sales and strategy planning by giving you all of the following

- Comprehensive market overviews with detailed regional supply data and company profiles for 2013-2017

- In-depth downstream demand analysis and forecasts - Detailed import analysis between 2012-2014

Enquire about the annual studies

Request a free trial

Supply and demand data We give you an end-to-end perspective across the global petrochemical and refinery supply chain enabling you to grasp the local or regional scenario in a global context Data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2030

Request a free demo

- Benzene- Cumene- Paraxylene ndash Orthoxylene- Styrene

wwwiciscom 57

Bringing you faster more effective ways to improve productivity and decision making

Data ExpressAccess manage and analyse data easier than ever before with our Data Express solutions

bull Excel Plug-in - instantly update your worksheets in Excelbull API ndash stream the latest data directly to your systems

Set up email alerts for the most fluid markets to help you stay on top of market movements and enable you to react faster to price changes and other major developments

Market Alerts

Enquire about our market alerts

Build chart and track your formulas and keep them all in one place using real-time pricing data via the ICIS Dashboard

Formula Builder

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Page 56: Asia Olefins & Aromatics Markets –A Turning of the Tide? · PDF fileBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news, ... Saudi Arabia 1,500 350 LDPE,1,080 solution PEQ2/mid 2016

wwwiciscom 57

Bringing you faster more effective ways to improve productivity and decision making

Data ExpressAccess manage and analyse data easier than ever before with our Data Express solutions

bull Excel Plug-in - instantly update your worksheets in Excelbull API ndash stream the latest data directly to your systems

Set up email alerts for the most fluid markets to help you stay on top of market movements and enable you to react faster to price changes and other major developments

Market Alerts

Enquire about our market alerts

Build chart and track your formulas and keep them all in one place using real-time pricing data via the ICIS Dashboard

Formula Builder

Request a trial