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wwwiciscom 1
Yeow Pei Lin amp Trixie Yap
Asia Petrochemical Industry Conference General Matter and Raw Materials20 May 2016Raffles City Convention Centre Singapore
Asia Olefins amp Aromatics Markets ndash A Turning of the Tide
wwwiciscom 2
Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets
Pricing information
- ButadieneC4s- Ethylene
Request your free sample report gtgt
We produce reliable price assessments and analyses covering Asian aromatics and olefins markets including price histories and a 12-month rolling price forecast enabling you to understand price drivers and settle your contract prices more confidently Our pricing coverage includes
- Mixed xylenes
- Propylene- Toluene
Real-time news serviceBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news including updates on plant capacities output and shutdowns
In-depth analysis of ChinaThe comprehensive studies on olefins and aromatics provide credible data and analysis to support your annual sales and strategy planning by giving you all of the following
- Comprehensive market overviews with detailed regional supply data and company profiles for 2013-2017
- In-depth downstream demand analysis and forecasts - Detailed import analysis between 2012-2014
Enquire about the annual studies
Request a free trial
Supply and demand data We give you an end-to-end perspective across the global petrochemical and refinery supply chain enabling you to grasp the local or regional scenario in a global context Data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2030
Request a free demo
- Benzene- Cumene- Paraxylene ndash Orthoxylene- Styrene
wwwiciscom 4Enquire about the scenario study gtgt
wwwiciscom 5wwwiciscom 5
2016 Asia ethylene market review amp outlook
US ethane-based derivative expansions ndash an emerging threat
Agenda
wwwiciscom 6
2016 Asia ethylene market review amp outlook
wwwiciscom 77
Test
Asia ethylene prices surged to over 8-month high in H2 Mar 2016
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 88
Test
NE Asia naphtha-based ethylene margins exceeded $700tonne in Mar full-year outlook
likely to be strong
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 99
Test
Key price drivers Q1 2016
wwwiciscom 1010
Test
Crude recovering after hitting more than 12-year low
wwwiciscom 1111
Test
Downstream prices mostly higher after H1 Feb CNY holiday price gains led by SM
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 1212
SM makersrsquo strong margins supported high ethylene prices
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 1313Source ICIS
Weak margins of most other derivatives capped ethylene price gains towards late Mar
wwwiciscom 1414Source ICIS
Supply crimped by annual cracker turnaround season starting from late FebMar
wwwiciscom 15
Impact of industry consolidation snowballs Asahi Kasei mothballs cracker in 2016
Company Location
C2 capacity losses (lsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream capacity losses(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Cracker closure date
Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Jinshan China 150 Nov 2013
Mitsubishi Chemical Kashima Japan 392 92 LLDPE May 2014
CPC Corp Kaohsiung Taiwan 500 (No 5)SD advanced to Jul 2014 from end 2015
Sumitomo Chemical Chiba Japan 415 425 SM180 PO May 2015
Asahi Kasei Mizushima Japan 500 320 SM Mid Feb 2016
Total C2 capacity losses1957Source Industry
wwwiciscom 16
Production issues curtailed SE Asia supply
Company Location
C2 capacity (lsquo 000 tonnesyr) Operating status
Shell
PulauBukom Singapore Around 960
Shut in late Nov 2015 may restart in Julearly Aug 2016
Chandra AsriCilegonIndonesia 860
Q1 run rates at 50-85 after capacity expansion in Dec 2015
Source Industry
wwwiciscom 1717
Test
Key price drivers Q2-Q4 2016
wwwiciscom 18
Crude oversupply expected to ease in H2 2016
wwwiciscom 1919Source Industry
2016 ethylene production losses from cracker turnarounds largely in Q2-Q3 overall losses down
34 YoY
wwwiciscom 2020Source Industry
Net losses after including +70kta at Asahi-Mitsubishi JV cracker
Output losses higher than 2015 after factoring in Shellrsquos Singapore cracker outage Asahirsquos cracker closure
wwwiciscom 2121Source Industry
Japan becomes structurally tighter
wwwiciscom 2222Source Industry
S Korearsquos exports likely to stabilise at low levels of around 650kt in 2016 after falling for two years
wwwiciscom 2323
End 2015-2016 ethylene capacity expansions in AsiaMideast
Saudi+1800kta
India+3270kta
Iran+2000kta Japan
+70ktaChina+1615kta
Source Industry
Total 9015 kta
Indonesia+260kta
wwwiciscom 2424Source Industry
Cracker expansions concentrated in IndiaMideast mostly integrated
Company Location
C2 capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr) Start-up schedule
Chandra Asri Cilegon Indonesia +260 to 860 Dec 2015Asahi Kasei Mitsubishi Chemical Ethylene Corp Mizushima Japan +70 to 570 1 Apr 2016GAIL Auraiya India 450 400 PE End Feb 2016Brahmaputra Cracker and Polymer Ltd (BCPL) Lepetkata Assam India 220 220 HDPELLDPE End Q1 2016
ONGC Petro Additions (OPaL) Dahej Gujarat India 1100 340 HDPE 720HDPELLDPE Late Q2 2016
Reliance Jamnagar India 1500 750 MEG 550 LLDPE 450 LDPE End 2016
Sadara Chemical Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia 1500 350 LDPE 1080 solution PE Q2mid 2016 at earliest
Petro Rabigh Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia +300 to 1600 150 LDPEEVA 75 EPDM Apr 2016 (cracker only)
Kavian Petrochemical Bushehr Iran 1000Supply to domestic plants via west pipeline H2 20162017
Arvand Petrochemical Gachsaran Iran 1000Feeds own vinyls plants+pipeline customers H2 20162017
Total C27400
wwwiciscom 2525
Expansions in China centred on integrated coal-based projects
Source Industry
Company Location Facility
C2 capacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstreamcapacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr
Start-upschedule
Shenhua Yulin Shenmu Shaanxi MTO 300 300 PE Dec 2015Inner Mongolia ChinaCoal Mengda New Energy amp Chemical Industry
Erdos Inner Mongolia CTO 300
300HDPELLDPE Apr 2016
Shenhua Xinjiang Urumqi Xinjiang CTO 320 320 LDPE Late Q2 2016
Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Golmud Qinghai CTO 160 300 PVC Q3 2016
Fund (Changzhou) Energy amp Chemical Changzhou Jiangsu MTO 165 Q3 2016
Jiangsu Sailboat PetrochemicalLianyungang Jiangsu MTO 370
300 EVALDPE 180 EO 20 MEG Q4 2016
Total C21615 Will supply to Changzhou Dohowrsquos new 300kta SM plant
wwwiciscom 2626Source Industry
More capacity increases at crackers in NESE Asia in 2017
Company Location
C2 capacityadditions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Completion schedule
Korea Petrochemical Industry Co (KPIC)
Onsan South Korea +330 to 800 Mid 2017
Lotte Chemical TitanPasir Gudang Malaysia 90 H1 2017
CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals (CSPC)
Huizhou Guangdong China 1000
150 EO 480 EG400 HDPE 300 LLDPE 700 SM End 20172018
Total C2 1420
wwwiciscom 27Source Industry
Chinarsquos ethylene import demand in 2016 could increase to around 1550-1600kt from 2015rsquos 1516kt
wwwiciscom 2828
Arbitrage amp Mideast cargoes help offset regional supply shortfalls around 500-565kt expected in 2016
Source Industry
Saudi 170-175kt
US 130-140kt
Europe 200-250kt
Projected spot supply excludes term cargoes
wwwiciscom 29
US ethane-based derivative expansions ndash an emerging threat
wwwiciscom 30
Company LocationC2 capacity (rsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream (lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Start-up schedule
Chevron Phillips ChemicalCedar Bayou Texas 1500
500 Bimodal HDPE 500 mLLDPE at Sweeny Mid 2017
Dow Chemical Freeport Texas 1500400 ELITE PE 350 LDPE 320 elastomers 200 EPDM H1 2017
ExxonMobil Chemical Baytown Texas 1500650x2 mLLDPE plus LLDPE at Mont Belvieu H2 2017
Formosa PlasticsPoint Comfort Texas 1590
525 PE unspec 6255 LDPE1000 MEG 20172018
Occidental ChemicalMexichem Ingleside Texas 544 Feed into existing 1050 VCM Q1 2017
SasolLake Charles Louisiana 1500
450 LDPE 450 LLDPE 300EOEG 300 ethoxylatesdetergent alcohols 2018
Total C28134 Total PE 51005
2017-2018 US ethylene amp derivatives projects country to become major PE exporter
Source ICIS Chemical Business
wwwiciscom 31
Chinarsquos PE deficit to continue
wwwiciscom 32wwwiciscom 32
Asia ethylene market to remain tight in 2016
Low-cost US PE exports likely to begin in late 2017 operations of naphtha-based integrated producers in Asia may be impacted
Conclusion
wwwiciscom 33
Asiarsquos toluene and benzene trade flows
wwwiciscom 34
Drivers of Asiarsquos toluene trade flow
wwwiciscom 35wwwiciscom 35
Asiarsquos TOL prices still tracks PX but relationship may weaken on narrower TDP spreads wider toluene-naphtha gap
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
160002
-Jan
-201
422
-Jan
-201
412
-Feb
-201
404
-Mar
-201
424
-Mar
-201
411
-Apr
-201
401
-May
-201
421
-May
-201
410
-Jun
-201
430
-Jun
-201
418
-Jul
-201
407
-Aug
-201
427
-Aug
-201
416
-Sep
-201
406
-Oct
-201
424
-Oct
-201
413
-Nov
-201
403
-Dec
-201
423
-Dec
-201
421
-Jan
-201
510
-Feb
-201
504
-Mar
-201
524
-Mar
-201
513
-Apr
-201
504
-May
-201
522
-May
-201
511
-Jun
-201
501
-Jul
-201
521
-Jul
-201
511
-Aug
-201
531
-Aug
-201
518
-Sep
-201
508
-Oct
-201
528
-Oct
-201
517
-Nov
-201
507
-Dec
-201
504
-Jan
-201
622
-Jan
-201
615
-Feb
-201
604
-Mar
-201
624
-Mar
-201
6
TDP spread (U
SDtonne)
USD
tonn
e
TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Toluene FOB K PX CFR CN
CF 094
CF 095
CF = correlation factor
CF 092
CF= 093
Healthy margins prevailed in 2014 supporting the closer relationship between PX and TOL prices
Margins turned largely negative in 2015 weakening the relationship slightly Strong blend value (BV) of TOL had larger impact on prices
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 36wwwiciscom 36
Wider toluene-naphtha spread since end-2015 increased toluene selling impetus instead of downstream usage allocation
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400Price spread (U
SDtonne)
USD
tonn
e
Toluene-Naphtha spread Naphtha CFR Japan Toluene FOB South Korea
Heavy speculation low Chinese + Indian inventory healthy PX spread led to widened spread in Q1 2016
Price increases supported by start-up of UAC higher usage of TOL for TDP units in addition to summer blending season
Breakeven level
Ave = 230Ave = 170Ave = 170
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 37wwwiciscom 37
TOL heavily placed in blending pool in 2015 capping op rates of downstream TDPs 2016 situation may be reversed
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
USD
tonn
e
Toluene blend value Toluene FOB Korea prices
95-TOL CF= 090
Strong TOL BV in H1 of 2014 results in the price support from gasoline blending strengthening relationship between the two
FOB K prices consistently higher than BV difficult to find demand from blending pool
95-TOL CF= 06895-TOL CF= 090
TOL BV surpasses TOL FOB K making it possible to be placed into blending pool for most of 2015
CF = correlation factorSource ICIS
wwwiciscom 38wwwiciscom 38
Chinese inventories have heavy influence on buying interest Q1 shortage supported sellersrsquo decision to offload more TOL
Ave = 103kt Ave = 903kt Ave = 89kt
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
USD
tonne0
00 to
nnes
east China south China CFR China price Import parity price of CNY cargoes
Strong demand from gasoline blending sector and cargo delays result in 3-year low inventories
Period of strong demand
Previously overbought slow offtake after LNY
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 39
S Korearsquos importexport position for TOL dependent on TDP spreads switch in production strategies in Q1 2016
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
50
100
150
200
25003
-Jan
-201
424
-Jan
-201
414
-Feb
-201
407
-Mar
-201
428
-Mar
-201
418
-Apr
-201
409
-May
-201
430
-May
-201
420
-Jun
-201
411
-Jul
-201
401
-Aug
-201
422
-Aug
-201
412
-Sep
-201
403
-Oct
-201
424
-Oct
-201
414
-Nov
-201
405
-Dec
-201
426
-Dec
-201
423
-Jan
-201
513
-Feb
-201
506
-Mar
-201
527
-Mar
-201
517
-Apr
-201
508
-May
-201
529
-May
-201
519
-Jun
-201
510
-Jul
-201
531
-Jul
-201
521
-Aug
-201
511
-Sep
-201
502
-Oct
-201
523
-Oct
-201
513
-Nov
-201
504
-Dec
-201
525
-Dec
-201
522
-Jan
-201
612
-Feb
-201
604
-Mar
-201
625
-Mar
-201
615
-Apr
-201
6
Qty in lsquo000 tonnes
USD
tonn
e
TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Exports from S Korea Imports to S Korea
Start up of UACrsquos TDP
Slight strategy switch as low Chinese inventories strong naphtha-TOL spread since Q1 leads to stronger TOL selling interest
Overall drop in TDP spreads from mid-2014 results in selling interest switch to net exporter
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 40
Heavier downstream unit turnarounds and production adjustments led to more S Korea-origin exports
H1 2015 H1 2016
0
20
40
60
80
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Qty
in 0
00 to
nnes
South Korea exports
China Taiwan Vietnam US Japan Singapore India Others
Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 13 00Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 00 00 18 00Hyundai Cosmo TDP Daesan 00 00 00 50 200 00S Oil No 2 TDP Onsan 00 00 00 200 00 00
00 00 00 250 231 00Producer LocationLG Chem Daesan 00 00 23 23 00 00YNCC No 1 Yeosu 00 00 00 00 50 50Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 00 00 00 08 63 00Lotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 23 00 00S Oil No 2 Onsan 00 00 124 267 00 00SKGC Incheon 67 00 00 00 00 00
67 00 147 321 113 50
Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)
Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)
Source ICIS
Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 00 87Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 27 00 00 00OCI TDI Kunsan 00 06 00 00 00 00GSCX STDP Yeosu 00 00 00 583 82 00Hanwha Total TDP Daesan 00 00 222 278 00 00SKGC TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 00 49 208LG H D A Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38
38 45 288 899 169 333Producer Location Hanwha Total Daesan 00 00 153 191 00 00GSCX Yeosu 00 00 00 174 49 00Lotte Chem Yeosu 00 00 00 47 16 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 00 78 333YNCC Yeosu 00 00 33 17 00 00
00 00 186 428 143 333
Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)
Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)
wwwiciscom 41wwwiciscom 41
NE Asia and SE Asia exports to China rise since H2 2015 on healthy netbacks strong demand
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
USD
tonne
Qty
in 0
00 to
nnes
Others
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
Import parity of domesticcargoesFOB South Korea prices
Increase in selling to China because of healthy netbacks weak TDP spread
Narrow gap results in fewer imports in line with FOB K price support from PX
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 42wwwiciscom 42
Exports from Asia to US market sporadic highly dependent on price gap gasoline blending season and Asia demand
0
10
20
30
40
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250Q
ty in 000 tonnesU
SDto
nne
Price gap (Asia prompt vs US forward) Exports from Asia to US
Open arbitrage opportunities result in increase of Asia exports
Consistent upward trend leads to selling interest
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 43wwwiciscom 43
India TOL imports mainly from SE Asia and Iran
46
23
17
37
4
2014
Singapore Thailand Iran S Korea Europe Others
2015
50
24
9
37
7
Source customs data
Total= 288kt Total= 288kt
wwwiciscom 44wwwiciscom 44
NE Asia TOL supply could outstrip demand in H2 2016 on heavier downstream turnarounds permanent shutdowns
H2 2015 H2 2016
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S Oil Onsan old TDP Onsan 00 42 42 00 00 00
00 42 42 00 00 00FCFC Aroma 2 TDP Mailiao 67 200 00 00 00 00
67 200 00 00 00 00JX Nippon Oil TDP Mizushima A 00 00 75 75 00 00
00 00 75 75 00 0067 242 117 75 00 00
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecLotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 73 25 00KPIC Ulsan 00 00 00 83 00 00S Oil No 1 Onsan 00 146 146 00 00 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 167 333 00OCI Yeosu 00 00 00 33 00 00
00 146 146 357 358 00Mitsui Chemicals Chiba 00 00 00 83 83 00JX Nippon Oil Mizushima A 00 00 117 233 00 00Tonen General Wakayama 00 00 00 69 92 00
00 00 117 385 175 00FCFC Aroma No 2 Mailiao 83 250 00 00 00 00CPC No 6 Kaohsiung 40 00 20 80 20 00CPC No3 Kaoshiung 00 00 00 00 83 55
123 250 20 80 103 55123 396 283 822 636 55
Est TOL consumption loss from KR
Est TOL consumption loss from TW
Est TOL production loss from KR
Total est consumption loss from NE Asia
Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia
CONSUMPTION (mt)
PRODUCTION (mt)
Est TOL consumption loss from JPN
Est TOL production loss from JPN
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUlsan Aromatics Center TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 1000 500 00SKGC TDP Incheon 00 00 00 83 42 00LG Chem H D A (shut since Jan) Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38
38 38 38 1122 580 38Taiyo Oil TDP cut rate only Kikuma 42 07 00 00 00 00MSNC TDI (shut since April) Omuta 65 65 65 65 65 65
107 72 65 65 65 65145 110 103 1187 645 103
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSKGC Incheon 00 00 00 133 67 00
00 00 00 133 67 00Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 00 00 108 108 00 00JFEC Chiba 00 00 14 42 00 00
00 00 122 150 00 00CPC No 7 Kaohsiung 00 00 00 27 108 00CPC No 3 Kaohsiung 110 00 00 00 00 00
110 00 00 27 108 00110 00 122 310 175 00
Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia
PRODUCTION (mt)
CONSUMPTION (mt)
Est TOL consumption loss from KR
Est TOL consumption loss from JPNTotal est consumption loss from NE Asia
Est TOL production loss from KR
Est TOL production loss from JPN
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016
Qty
in to
nnes
Total est consumption loss from NE Asia Total est production loss from NE AsiaSource ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45
Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance
Source ICIS
bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016
bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread
bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption
bull Improvements in TOL blend values
bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading
bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer
bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers
bull Other competitively priced blendstocks
bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL
bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China
TOL supply
TOL demand
Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors
wwwiciscom 46
Drivers of benzene trade flow
wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47
-60-40-200204060
500550600650700750800850900
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea
China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016
020000400006000080000
100000120000140000160000180000200000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Tonn
es
Others
MiddleEastThailand
Malaysia
Taiwan
Japan
SouthKorea
China imports
Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand
Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance
Strong appetite for imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48
Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
Pric
e ($
tonn
e)
Tonn
es
Shore tank inventories
E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity
2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite
Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains
Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49
-80-60-40-20020406080100
500550600650700750800850900950
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15
Tonn
es
OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea
Imports from Asia increase
Imports lower due to higher China prices
S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015
Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates
US imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50
Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600Ja
n-14
Feb-
14M
ar-1
4A
pr-1
4M
ay-1
4Ju
n-14
Jul-1
4A
ug-1
4Se
p-14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Dec
-14
Jan-
15Fe
b-15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
May
-15
Jun-
15Ju
l-15
Aug
-15
Sep-
15O
ct-1
5N
ov-1
5D
ec-1
5Ja
n-16
Feb-
16M
ar-1
6A
pr-1
6
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)Naphtha-Benzene
Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene
$346t $193t $230t
wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51
S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32
Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300
SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15
YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37
2015 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25
S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25
SK Global Chem Incheon 200
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16
OthersTaiwanChinaUS
S Korea exports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52
Outlook increased supply likely to head to China
Source ICIS industry
Company Location BZ Start up period
Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016
Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16
Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos
(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul
Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16
Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16
Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16
Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017
Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex
Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017
Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017
KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017
Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017
Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726
Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322
Product Company Location Capacity(kta)
BZ usage Start up period
SM
Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16
Donghao China 300 240 May-16
Phenol
PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16
Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16
Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17
PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017
Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017
CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17
CPL
Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16
China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16
Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16
MDI
Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017
Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017
Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017
Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972
Consumption within China in 2016 637 655
wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53
Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season
S Korea 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75
BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0
S Korea 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5
KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26
S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13
BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3
Japan 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36
Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12
BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0
Japan 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23
Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24
JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24
BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17
Source ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54
BZ demandBZ supply
bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China
bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ
bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene
bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units
bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher
bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure
bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed
bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand
Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55
Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom
Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom
Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom
Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom
wwwiciscom 56
Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets
Pricing information
- ButadieneC4s- Ethylene
Request your free sample report gtgt
We produce reliable price assessments and analyses covering Asian aromatics and olefins markets including price histories and a 12-month rolling price forecast enabling you to understand price drivers and settle your contract prices more confidently Our pricing coverage includes
- Mixed xylenes
- Propylene- Toluene
Real-time news serviceBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news including updates on plant capacities output and shutdowns
In-depth analysis of ChinaThe comprehensive studies on olefins and aromatics provide credible data and analysis to support your annual sales and strategy planning by giving you all of the following
- Comprehensive market overviews with detailed regional supply data and company profiles for 2013-2017
- In-depth downstream demand analysis and forecasts - Detailed import analysis between 2012-2014
Enquire about the annual studies
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Supply and demand data We give you an end-to-end perspective across the global petrochemical and refinery supply chain enabling you to grasp the local or regional scenario in a global context Data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2030
Request a free demo
- Benzene- Cumene- Paraxylene ndash Orthoxylene- Styrene
wwwiciscom 57
Bringing you faster more effective ways to improve productivity and decision making
Data ExpressAccess manage and analyse data easier than ever before with our Data Express solutions
bull Excel Plug-in - instantly update your worksheets in Excelbull API ndash stream the latest data directly to your systems
Set up email alerts for the most fluid markets to help you stay on top of market movements and enable you to react faster to price changes and other major developments
Market Alerts
Enquire about our market alerts
Build chart and track your formulas and keep them all in one place using real-time pricing data via the ICIS Dashboard
Formula Builder
Request a trial
wwwiciscom 2
Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets
Pricing information
- ButadieneC4s- Ethylene
Request your free sample report gtgt
We produce reliable price assessments and analyses covering Asian aromatics and olefins markets including price histories and a 12-month rolling price forecast enabling you to understand price drivers and settle your contract prices more confidently Our pricing coverage includes
- Mixed xylenes
- Propylene- Toluene
Real-time news serviceBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news including updates on plant capacities output and shutdowns
In-depth analysis of ChinaThe comprehensive studies on olefins and aromatics provide credible data and analysis to support your annual sales and strategy planning by giving you all of the following
- Comprehensive market overviews with detailed regional supply data and company profiles for 2013-2017
- In-depth downstream demand analysis and forecasts - Detailed import analysis between 2012-2014
Enquire about the annual studies
Request a free trial
Supply and demand data We give you an end-to-end perspective across the global petrochemical and refinery supply chain enabling you to grasp the local or regional scenario in a global context Data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2030
Request a free demo
- Benzene- Cumene- Paraxylene ndash Orthoxylene- Styrene
wwwiciscom 4Enquire about the scenario study gtgt
wwwiciscom 5wwwiciscom 5
2016 Asia ethylene market review amp outlook
US ethane-based derivative expansions ndash an emerging threat
Agenda
wwwiciscom 6
2016 Asia ethylene market review amp outlook
wwwiciscom 77
Test
Asia ethylene prices surged to over 8-month high in H2 Mar 2016
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 88
Test
NE Asia naphtha-based ethylene margins exceeded $700tonne in Mar full-year outlook
likely to be strong
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 99
Test
Key price drivers Q1 2016
wwwiciscom 1010
Test
Crude recovering after hitting more than 12-year low
wwwiciscom 1111
Test
Downstream prices mostly higher after H1 Feb CNY holiday price gains led by SM
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 1212
SM makersrsquo strong margins supported high ethylene prices
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 1313Source ICIS
Weak margins of most other derivatives capped ethylene price gains towards late Mar
wwwiciscom 1414Source ICIS
Supply crimped by annual cracker turnaround season starting from late FebMar
wwwiciscom 15
Impact of industry consolidation snowballs Asahi Kasei mothballs cracker in 2016
Company Location
C2 capacity losses (lsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream capacity losses(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Cracker closure date
Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Jinshan China 150 Nov 2013
Mitsubishi Chemical Kashima Japan 392 92 LLDPE May 2014
CPC Corp Kaohsiung Taiwan 500 (No 5)SD advanced to Jul 2014 from end 2015
Sumitomo Chemical Chiba Japan 415 425 SM180 PO May 2015
Asahi Kasei Mizushima Japan 500 320 SM Mid Feb 2016
Total C2 capacity losses1957Source Industry
wwwiciscom 16
Production issues curtailed SE Asia supply
Company Location
C2 capacity (lsquo 000 tonnesyr) Operating status
Shell
PulauBukom Singapore Around 960
Shut in late Nov 2015 may restart in Julearly Aug 2016
Chandra AsriCilegonIndonesia 860
Q1 run rates at 50-85 after capacity expansion in Dec 2015
Source Industry
wwwiciscom 1717
Test
Key price drivers Q2-Q4 2016
wwwiciscom 18
Crude oversupply expected to ease in H2 2016
wwwiciscom 1919Source Industry
2016 ethylene production losses from cracker turnarounds largely in Q2-Q3 overall losses down
34 YoY
wwwiciscom 2020Source Industry
Net losses after including +70kta at Asahi-Mitsubishi JV cracker
Output losses higher than 2015 after factoring in Shellrsquos Singapore cracker outage Asahirsquos cracker closure
wwwiciscom 2121Source Industry
Japan becomes structurally tighter
wwwiciscom 2222Source Industry
S Korearsquos exports likely to stabilise at low levels of around 650kt in 2016 after falling for two years
wwwiciscom 2323
End 2015-2016 ethylene capacity expansions in AsiaMideast
Saudi+1800kta
India+3270kta
Iran+2000kta Japan
+70ktaChina+1615kta
Source Industry
Total 9015 kta
Indonesia+260kta
wwwiciscom 2424Source Industry
Cracker expansions concentrated in IndiaMideast mostly integrated
Company Location
C2 capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr) Start-up schedule
Chandra Asri Cilegon Indonesia +260 to 860 Dec 2015Asahi Kasei Mitsubishi Chemical Ethylene Corp Mizushima Japan +70 to 570 1 Apr 2016GAIL Auraiya India 450 400 PE End Feb 2016Brahmaputra Cracker and Polymer Ltd (BCPL) Lepetkata Assam India 220 220 HDPELLDPE End Q1 2016
ONGC Petro Additions (OPaL) Dahej Gujarat India 1100 340 HDPE 720HDPELLDPE Late Q2 2016
Reliance Jamnagar India 1500 750 MEG 550 LLDPE 450 LDPE End 2016
Sadara Chemical Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia 1500 350 LDPE 1080 solution PE Q2mid 2016 at earliest
Petro Rabigh Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia +300 to 1600 150 LDPEEVA 75 EPDM Apr 2016 (cracker only)
Kavian Petrochemical Bushehr Iran 1000Supply to domestic plants via west pipeline H2 20162017
Arvand Petrochemical Gachsaran Iran 1000Feeds own vinyls plants+pipeline customers H2 20162017
Total C27400
wwwiciscom 2525
Expansions in China centred on integrated coal-based projects
Source Industry
Company Location Facility
C2 capacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstreamcapacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr
Start-upschedule
Shenhua Yulin Shenmu Shaanxi MTO 300 300 PE Dec 2015Inner Mongolia ChinaCoal Mengda New Energy amp Chemical Industry
Erdos Inner Mongolia CTO 300
300HDPELLDPE Apr 2016
Shenhua Xinjiang Urumqi Xinjiang CTO 320 320 LDPE Late Q2 2016
Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Golmud Qinghai CTO 160 300 PVC Q3 2016
Fund (Changzhou) Energy amp Chemical Changzhou Jiangsu MTO 165 Q3 2016
Jiangsu Sailboat PetrochemicalLianyungang Jiangsu MTO 370
300 EVALDPE 180 EO 20 MEG Q4 2016
Total C21615 Will supply to Changzhou Dohowrsquos new 300kta SM plant
wwwiciscom 2626Source Industry
More capacity increases at crackers in NESE Asia in 2017
Company Location
C2 capacityadditions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Completion schedule
Korea Petrochemical Industry Co (KPIC)
Onsan South Korea +330 to 800 Mid 2017
Lotte Chemical TitanPasir Gudang Malaysia 90 H1 2017
CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals (CSPC)
Huizhou Guangdong China 1000
150 EO 480 EG400 HDPE 300 LLDPE 700 SM End 20172018
Total C2 1420
wwwiciscom 27Source Industry
Chinarsquos ethylene import demand in 2016 could increase to around 1550-1600kt from 2015rsquos 1516kt
wwwiciscom 2828
Arbitrage amp Mideast cargoes help offset regional supply shortfalls around 500-565kt expected in 2016
Source Industry
Saudi 170-175kt
US 130-140kt
Europe 200-250kt
Projected spot supply excludes term cargoes
wwwiciscom 29
US ethane-based derivative expansions ndash an emerging threat
wwwiciscom 30
Company LocationC2 capacity (rsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream (lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Start-up schedule
Chevron Phillips ChemicalCedar Bayou Texas 1500
500 Bimodal HDPE 500 mLLDPE at Sweeny Mid 2017
Dow Chemical Freeport Texas 1500400 ELITE PE 350 LDPE 320 elastomers 200 EPDM H1 2017
ExxonMobil Chemical Baytown Texas 1500650x2 mLLDPE plus LLDPE at Mont Belvieu H2 2017
Formosa PlasticsPoint Comfort Texas 1590
525 PE unspec 6255 LDPE1000 MEG 20172018
Occidental ChemicalMexichem Ingleside Texas 544 Feed into existing 1050 VCM Q1 2017
SasolLake Charles Louisiana 1500
450 LDPE 450 LLDPE 300EOEG 300 ethoxylatesdetergent alcohols 2018
Total C28134 Total PE 51005
2017-2018 US ethylene amp derivatives projects country to become major PE exporter
Source ICIS Chemical Business
wwwiciscom 31
Chinarsquos PE deficit to continue
wwwiciscom 32wwwiciscom 32
Asia ethylene market to remain tight in 2016
Low-cost US PE exports likely to begin in late 2017 operations of naphtha-based integrated producers in Asia may be impacted
Conclusion
wwwiciscom 33
Asiarsquos toluene and benzene trade flows
wwwiciscom 34
Drivers of Asiarsquos toluene trade flow
wwwiciscom 35wwwiciscom 35
Asiarsquos TOL prices still tracks PX but relationship may weaken on narrower TDP spreads wider toluene-naphtha gap
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
160002
-Jan
-201
422
-Jan
-201
412
-Feb
-201
404
-Mar
-201
424
-Mar
-201
411
-Apr
-201
401
-May
-201
421
-May
-201
410
-Jun
-201
430
-Jun
-201
418
-Jul
-201
407
-Aug
-201
427
-Aug
-201
416
-Sep
-201
406
-Oct
-201
424
-Oct
-201
413
-Nov
-201
403
-Dec
-201
423
-Dec
-201
421
-Jan
-201
510
-Feb
-201
504
-Mar
-201
524
-Mar
-201
513
-Apr
-201
504
-May
-201
522
-May
-201
511
-Jun
-201
501
-Jul
-201
521
-Jul
-201
511
-Aug
-201
531
-Aug
-201
518
-Sep
-201
508
-Oct
-201
528
-Oct
-201
517
-Nov
-201
507
-Dec
-201
504
-Jan
-201
622
-Jan
-201
615
-Feb
-201
604
-Mar
-201
624
-Mar
-201
6
TDP spread (U
SDtonne)
USD
tonn
e
TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Toluene FOB K PX CFR CN
CF 094
CF 095
CF = correlation factor
CF 092
CF= 093
Healthy margins prevailed in 2014 supporting the closer relationship between PX and TOL prices
Margins turned largely negative in 2015 weakening the relationship slightly Strong blend value (BV) of TOL had larger impact on prices
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 36wwwiciscom 36
Wider toluene-naphtha spread since end-2015 increased toluene selling impetus instead of downstream usage allocation
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400Price spread (U
SDtonne)
USD
tonn
e
Toluene-Naphtha spread Naphtha CFR Japan Toluene FOB South Korea
Heavy speculation low Chinese + Indian inventory healthy PX spread led to widened spread in Q1 2016
Price increases supported by start-up of UAC higher usage of TOL for TDP units in addition to summer blending season
Breakeven level
Ave = 230Ave = 170Ave = 170
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 37wwwiciscom 37
TOL heavily placed in blending pool in 2015 capping op rates of downstream TDPs 2016 situation may be reversed
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
USD
tonn
e
Toluene blend value Toluene FOB Korea prices
95-TOL CF= 090
Strong TOL BV in H1 of 2014 results in the price support from gasoline blending strengthening relationship between the two
FOB K prices consistently higher than BV difficult to find demand from blending pool
95-TOL CF= 06895-TOL CF= 090
TOL BV surpasses TOL FOB K making it possible to be placed into blending pool for most of 2015
CF = correlation factorSource ICIS
wwwiciscom 38wwwiciscom 38
Chinese inventories have heavy influence on buying interest Q1 shortage supported sellersrsquo decision to offload more TOL
Ave = 103kt Ave = 903kt Ave = 89kt
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
USD
tonne0
00 to
nnes
east China south China CFR China price Import parity price of CNY cargoes
Strong demand from gasoline blending sector and cargo delays result in 3-year low inventories
Period of strong demand
Previously overbought slow offtake after LNY
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 39
S Korearsquos importexport position for TOL dependent on TDP spreads switch in production strategies in Q1 2016
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
50
100
150
200
25003
-Jan
-201
424
-Jan
-201
414
-Feb
-201
407
-Mar
-201
428
-Mar
-201
418
-Apr
-201
409
-May
-201
430
-May
-201
420
-Jun
-201
411
-Jul
-201
401
-Aug
-201
422
-Aug
-201
412
-Sep
-201
403
-Oct
-201
424
-Oct
-201
414
-Nov
-201
405
-Dec
-201
426
-Dec
-201
423
-Jan
-201
513
-Feb
-201
506
-Mar
-201
527
-Mar
-201
517
-Apr
-201
508
-May
-201
529
-May
-201
519
-Jun
-201
510
-Jul
-201
531
-Jul
-201
521
-Aug
-201
511
-Sep
-201
502
-Oct
-201
523
-Oct
-201
513
-Nov
-201
504
-Dec
-201
525
-Dec
-201
522
-Jan
-201
612
-Feb
-201
604
-Mar
-201
625
-Mar
-201
615
-Apr
-201
6
Qty in lsquo000 tonnes
USD
tonn
e
TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Exports from S Korea Imports to S Korea
Start up of UACrsquos TDP
Slight strategy switch as low Chinese inventories strong naphtha-TOL spread since Q1 leads to stronger TOL selling interest
Overall drop in TDP spreads from mid-2014 results in selling interest switch to net exporter
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 40
Heavier downstream unit turnarounds and production adjustments led to more S Korea-origin exports
H1 2015 H1 2016
0
20
40
60
80
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Qty
in 0
00 to
nnes
South Korea exports
China Taiwan Vietnam US Japan Singapore India Others
Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 13 00Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 00 00 18 00Hyundai Cosmo TDP Daesan 00 00 00 50 200 00S Oil No 2 TDP Onsan 00 00 00 200 00 00
00 00 00 250 231 00Producer LocationLG Chem Daesan 00 00 23 23 00 00YNCC No 1 Yeosu 00 00 00 00 50 50Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 00 00 00 08 63 00Lotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 23 00 00S Oil No 2 Onsan 00 00 124 267 00 00SKGC Incheon 67 00 00 00 00 00
67 00 147 321 113 50
Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)
Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)
Source ICIS
Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 00 87Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 27 00 00 00OCI TDI Kunsan 00 06 00 00 00 00GSCX STDP Yeosu 00 00 00 583 82 00Hanwha Total TDP Daesan 00 00 222 278 00 00SKGC TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 00 49 208LG H D A Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38
38 45 288 899 169 333Producer Location Hanwha Total Daesan 00 00 153 191 00 00GSCX Yeosu 00 00 00 174 49 00Lotte Chem Yeosu 00 00 00 47 16 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 00 78 333YNCC Yeosu 00 00 33 17 00 00
00 00 186 428 143 333
Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)
Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)
wwwiciscom 41wwwiciscom 41
NE Asia and SE Asia exports to China rise since H2 2015 on healthy netbacks strong demand
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
USD
tonne
Qty
in 0
00 to
nnes
Others
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
Import parity of domesticcargoesFOB South Korea prices
Increase in selling to China because of healthy netbacks weak TDP spread
Narrow gap results in fewer imports in line with FOB K price support from PX
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 42wwwiciscom 42
Exports from Asia to US market sporadic highly dependent on price gap gasoline blending season and Asia demand
0
10
20
30
40
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250Q
ty in 000 tonnesU
SDto
nne
Price gap (Asia prompt vs US forward) Exports from Asia to US
Open arbitrage opportunities result in increase of Asia exports
Consistent upward trend leads to selling interest
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 43wwwiciscom 43
India TOL imports mainly from SE Asia and Iran
46
23
17
37
4
2014
Singapore Thailand Iran S Korea Europe Others
2015
50
24
9
37
7
Source customs data
Total= 288kt Total= 288kt
wwwiciscom 44wwwiciscom 44
NE Asia TOL supply could outstrip demand in H2 2016 on heavier downstream turnarounds permanent shutdowns
H2 2015 H2 2016
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S Oil Onsan old TDP Onsan 00 42 42 00 00 00
00 42 42 00 00 00FCFC Aroma 2 TDP Mailiao 67 200 00 00 00 00
67 200 00 00 00 00JX Nippon Oil TDP Mizushima A 00 00 75 75 00 00
00 00 75 75 00 0067 242 117 75 00 00
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecLotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 73 25 00KPIC Ulsan 00 00 00 83 00 00S Oil No 1 Onsan 00 146 146 00 00 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 167 333 00OCI Yeosu 00 00 00 33 00 00
00 146 146 357 358 00Mitsui Chemicals Chiba 00 00 00 83 83 00JX Nippon Oil Mizushima A 00 00 117 233 00 00Tonen General Wakayama 00 00 00 69 92 00
00 00 117 385 175 00FCFC Aroma No 2 Mailiao 83 250 00 00 00 00CPC No 6 Kaohsiung 40 00 20 80 20 00CPC No3 Kaoshiung 00 00 00 00 83 55
123 250 20 80 103 55123 396 283 822 636 55
Est TOL consumption loss from KR
Est TOL consumption loss from TW
Est TOL production loss from KR
Total est consumption loss from NE Asia
Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia
CONSUMPTION (mt)
PRODUCTION (mt)
Est TOL consumption loss from JPN
Est TOL production loss from JPN
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUlsan Aromatics Center TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 1000 500 00SKGC TDP Incheon 00 00 00 83 42 00LG Chem H D A (shut since Jan) Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38
38 38 38 1122 580 38Taiyo Oil TDP cut rate only Kikuma 42 07 00 00 00 00MSNC TDI (shut since April) Omuta 65 65 65 65 65 65
107 72 65 65 65 65145 110 103 1187 645 103
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSKGC Incheon 00 00 00 133 67 00
00 00 00 133 67 00Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 00 00 108 108 00 00JFEC Chiba 00 00 14 42 00 00
00 00 122 150 00 00CPC No 7 Kaohsiung 00 00 00 27 108 00CPC No 3 Kaohsiung 110 00 00 00 00 00
110 00 00 27 108 00110 00 122 310 175 00
Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia
PRODUCTION (mt)
CONSUMPTION (mt)
Est TOL consumption loss from KR
Est TOL consumption loss from JPNTotal est consumption loss from NE Asia
Est TOL production loss from KR
Est TOL production loss from JPN
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016
Qty
in to
nnes
Total est consumption loss from NE Asia Total est production loss from NE AsiaSource ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45
Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance
Source ICIS
bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016
bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread
bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption
bull Improvements in TOL blend values
bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading
bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer
bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers
bull Other competitively priced blendstocks
bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL
bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China
TOL supply
TOL demand
Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors
wwwiciscom 46
Drivers of benzene trade flow
wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47
-60-40-200204060
500550600650700750800850900
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea
China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016
020000400006000080000
100000120000140000160000180000200000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Tonn
es
Others
MiddleEastThailand
Malaysia
Taiwan
Japan
SouthKorea
China imports
Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand
Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance
Strong appetite for imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48
Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
Pric
e ($
tonn
e)
Tonn
es
Shore tank inventories
E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity
2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite
Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains
Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49
-80-60-40-20020406080100
500550600650700750800850900950
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15
Tonn
es
OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea
Imports from Asia increase
Imports lower due to higher China prices
S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015
Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates
US imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50
Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600Ja
n-14
Feb-
14M
ar-1
4A
pr-1
4M
ay-1
4Ju
n-14
Jul-1
4A
ug-1
4Se
p-14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Dec
-14
Jan-
15Fe
b-15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
May
-15
Jun-
15Ju
l-15
Aug
-15
Sep-
15O
ct-1
5N
ov-1
5D
ec-1
5Ja
n-16
Feb-
16M
ar-1
6A
pr-1
6
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)Naphtha-Benzene
Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene
$346t $193t $230t
wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51
S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32
Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300
SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15
YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37
2015 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25
S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25
SK Global Chem Incheon 200
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16
OthersTaiwanChinaUS
S Korea exports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52
Outlook increased supply likely to head to China
Source ICIS industry
Company Location BZ Start up period
Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016
Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16
Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos
(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul
Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16
Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16
Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16
Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017
Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex
Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017
Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017
KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017
Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017
Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726
Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322
Product Company Location Capacity(kta)
BZ usage Start up period
SM
Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16
Donghao China 300 240 May-16
Phenol
PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16
Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16
Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17
PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017
Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017
CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17
CPL
Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16
China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16
Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16
MDI
Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017
Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017
Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017
Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972
Consumption within China in 2016 637 655
wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53
Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season
S Korea 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75
BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0
S Korea 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5
KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26
S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13
BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3
Japan 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36
Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12
BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0
Japan 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23
Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24
JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24
BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17
Source ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54
BZ demandBZ supply
bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China
bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ
bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene
bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units
bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher
bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure
bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed
bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand
Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55
Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom
Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom
Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom
Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom
wwwiciscom 56
Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets
Pricing information
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Request your free sample report gtgt
We produce reliable price assessments and analyses covering Asian aromatics and olefins markets including price histories and a 12-month rolling price forecast enabling you to understand price drivers and settle your contract prices more confidently Our pricing coverage includes
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wwwiciscom 57
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Set up email alerts for the most fluid markets to help you stay on top of market movements and enable you to react faster to price changes and other major developments
Market Alerts
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Build chart and track your formulas and keep them all in one place using real-time pricing data via the ICIS Dashboard
Formula Builder
Request a trial
wwwiciscom 4Enquire about the scenario study gtgt
wwwiciscom 5wwwiciscom 5
2016 Asia ethylene market review amp outlook
US ethane-based derivative expansions ndash an emerging threat
Agenda
wwwiciscom 6
2016 Asia ethylene market review amp outlook
wwwiciscom 77
Test
Asia ethylene prices surged to over 8-month high in H2 Mar 2016
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 88
Test
NE Asia naphtha-based ethylene margins exceeded $700tonne in Mar full-year outlook
likely to be strong
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 99
Test
Key price drivers Q1 2016
wwwiciscom 1010
Test
Crude recovering after hitting more than 12-year low
wwwiciscom 1111
Test
Downstream prices mostly higher after H1 Feb CNY holiday price gains led by SM
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 1212
SM makersrsquo strong margins supported high ethylene prices
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 1313Source ICIS
Weak margins of most other derivatives capped ethylene price gains towards late Mar
wwwiciscom 1414Source ICIS
Supply crimped by annual cracker turnaround season starting from late FebMar
wwwiciscom 15
Impact of industry consolidation snowballs Asahi Kasei mothballs cracker in 2016
Company Location
C2 capacity losses (lsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream capacity losses(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Cracker closure date
Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Jinshan China 150 Nov 2013
Mitsubishi Chemical Kashima Japan 392 92 LLDPE May 2014
CPC Corp Kaohsiung Taiwan 500 (No 5)SD advanced to Jul 2014 from end 2015
Sumitomo Chemical Chiba Japan 415 425 SM180 PO May 2015
Asahi Kasei Mizushima Japan 500 320 SM Mid Feb 2016
Total C2 capacity losses1957Source Industry
wwwiciscom 16
Production issues curtailed SE Asia supply
Company Location
C2 capacity (lsquo 000 tonnesyr) Operating status
Shell
PulauBukom Singapore Around 960
Shut in late Nov 2015 may restart in Julearly Aug 2016
Chandra AsriCilegonIndonesia 860
Q1 run rates at 50-85 after capacity expansion in Dec 2015
Source Industry
wwwiciscom 1717
Test
Key price drivers Q2-Q4 2016
wwwiciscom 18
Crude oversupply expected to ease in H2 2016
wwwiciscom 1919Source Industry
2016 ethylene production losses from cracker turnarounds largely in Q2-Q3 overall losses down
34 YoY
wwwiciscom 2020Source Industry
Net losses after including +70kta at Asahi-Mitsubishi JV cracker
Output losses higher than 2015 after factoring in Shellrsquos Singapore cracker outage Asahirsquos cracker closure
wwwiciscom 2121Source Industry
Japan becomes structurally tighter
wwwiciscom 2222Source Industry
S Korearsquos exports likely to stabilise at low levels of around 650kt in 2016 after falling for two years
wwwiciscom 2323
End 2015-2016 ethylene capacity expansions in AsiaMideast
Saudi+1800kta
India+3270kta
Iran+2000kta Japan
+70ktaChina+1615kta
Source Industry
Total 9015 kta
Indonesia+260kta
wwwiciscom 2424Source Industry
Cracker expansions concentrated in IndiaMideast mostly integrated
Company Location
C2 capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr) Start-up schedule
Chandra Asri Cilegon Indonesia +260 to 860 Dec 2015Asahi Kasei Mitsubishi Chemical Ethylene Corp Mizushima Japan +70 to 570 1 Apr 2016GAIL Auraiya India 450 400 PE End Feb 2016Brahmaputra Cracker and Polymer Ltd (BCPL) Lepetkata Assam India 220 220 HDPELLDPE End Q1 2016
ONGC Petro Additions (OPaL) Dahej Gujarat India 1100 340 HDPE 720HDPELLDPE Late Q2 2016
Reliance Jamnagar India 1500 750 MEG 550 LLDPE 450 LDPE End 2016
Sadara Chemical Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia 1500 350 LDPE 1080 solution PE Q2mid 2016 at earliest
Petro Rabigh Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia +300 to 1600 150 LDPEEVA 75 EPDM Apr 2016 (cracker only)
Kavian Petrochemical Bushehr Iran 1000Supply to domestic plants via west pipeline H2 20162017
Arvand Petrochemical Gachsaran Iran 1000Feeds own vinyls plants+pipeline customers H2 20162017
Total C27400
wwwiciscom 2525
Expansions in China centred on integrated coal-based projects
Source Industry
Company Location Facility
C2 capacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstreamcapacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr
Start-upschedule
Shenhua Yulin Shenmu Shaanxi MTO 300 300 PE Dec 2015Inner Mongolia ChinaCoal Mengda New Energy amp Chemical Industry
Erdos Inner Mongolia CTO 300
300HDPELLDPE Apr 2016
Shenhua Xinjiang Urumqi Xinjiang CTO 320 320 LDPE Late Q2 2016
Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Golmud Qinghai CTO 160 300 PVC Q3 2016
Fund (Changzhou) Energy amp Chemical Changzhou Jiangsu MTO 165 Q3 2016
Jiangsu Sailboat PetrochemicalLianyungang Jiangsu MTO 370
300 EVALDPE 180 EO 20 MEG Q4 2016
Total C21615 Will supply to Changzhou Dohowrsquos new 300kta SM plant
wwwiciscom 2626Source Industry
More capacity increases at crackers in NESE Asia in 2017
Company Location
C2 capacityadditions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Completion schedule
Korea Petrochemical Industry Co (KPIC)
Onsan South Korea +330 to 800 Mid 2017
Lotte Chemical TitanPasir Gudang Malaysia 90 H1 2017
CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals (CSPC)
Huizhou Guangdong China 1000
150 EO 480 EG400 HDPE 300 LLDPE 700 SM End 20172018
Total C2 1420
wwwiciscom 27Source Industry
Chinarsquos ethylene import demand in 2016 could increase to around 1550-1600kt from 2015rsquos 1516kt
wwwiciscom 2828
Arbitrage amp Mideast cargoes help offset regional supply shortfalls around 500-565kt expected in 2016
Source Industry
Saudi 170-175kt
US 130-140kt
Europe 200-250kt
Projected spot supply excludes term cargoes
wwwiciscom 29
US ethane-based derivative expansions ndash an emerging threat
wwwiciscom 30
Company LocationC2 capacity (rsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream (lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Start-up schedule
Chevron Phillips ChemicalCedar Bayou Texas 1500
500 Bimodal HDPE 500 mLLDPE at Sweeny Mid 2017
Dow Chemical Freeport Texas 1500400 ELITE PE 350 LDPE 320 elastomers 200 EPDM H1 2017
ExxonMobil Chemical Baytown Texas 1500650x2 mLLDPE plus LLDPE at Mont Belvieu H2 2017
Formosa PlasticsPoint Comfort Texas 1590
525 PE unspec 6255 LDPE1000 MEG 20172018
Occidental ChemicalMexichem Ingleside Texas 544 Feed into existing 1050 VCM Q1 2017
SasolLake Charles Louisiana 1500
450 LDPE 450 LLDPE 300EOEG 300 ethoxylatesdetergent alcohols 2018
Total C28134 Total PE 51005
2017-2018 US ethylene amp derivatives projects country to become major PE exporter
Source ICIS Chemical Business
wwwiciscom 31
Chinarsquos PE deficit to continue
wwwiciscom 32wwwiciscom 32
Asia ethylene market to remain tight in 2016
Low-cost US PE exports likely to begin in late 2017 operations of naphtha-based integrated producers in Asia may be impacted
Conclusion
wwwiciscom 33
Asiarsquos toluene and benzene trade flows
wwwiciscom 34
Drivers of Asiarsquos toluene trade flow
wwwiciscom 35wwwiciscom 35
Asiarsquos TOL prices still tracks PX but relationship may weaken on narrower TDP spreads wider toluene-naphtha gap
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
160002
-Jan
-201
422
-Jan
-201
412
-Feb
-201
404
-Mar
-201
424
-Mar
-201
411
-Apr
-201
401
-May
-201
421
-May
-201
410
-Jun
-201
430
-Jun
-201
418
-Jul
-201
407
-Aug
-201
427
-Aug
-201
416
-Sep
-201
406
-Oct
-201
424
-Oct
-201
413
-Nov
-201
403
-Dec
-201
423
-Dec
-201
421
-Jan
-201
510
-Feb
-201
504
-Mar
-201
524
-Mar
-201
513
-Apr
-201
504
-May
-201
522
-May
-201
511
-Jun
-201
501
-Jul
-201
521
-Jul
-201
511
-Aug
-201
531
-Aug
-201
518
-Sep
-201
508
-Oct
-201
528
-Oct
-201
517
-Nov
-201
507
-Dec
-201
504
-Jan
-201
622
-Jan
-201
615
-Feb
-201
604
-Mar
-201
624
-Mar
-201
6
TDP spread (U
SDtonne)
USD
tonn
e
TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Toluene FOB K PX CFR CN
CF 094
CF 095
CF = correlation factor
CF 092
CF= 093
Healthy margins prevailed in 2014 supporting the closer relationship between PX and TOL prices
Margins turned largely negative in 2015 weakening the relationship slightly Strong blend value (BV) of TOL had larger impact on prices
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 36wwwiciscom 36
Wider toluene-naphtha spread since end-2015 increased toluene selling impetus instead of downstream usage allocation
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400Price spread (U
SDtonne)
USD
tonn
e
Toluene-Naphtha spread Naphtha CFR Japan Toluene FOB South Korea
Heavy speculation low Chinese + Indian inventory healthy PX spread led to widened spread in Q1 2016
Price increases supported by start-up of UAC higher usage of TOL for TDP units in addition to summer blending season
Breakeven level
Ave = 230Ave = 170Ave = 170
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 37wwwiciscom 37
TOL heavily placed in blending pool in 2015 capping op rates of downstream TDPs 2016 situation may be reversed
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
USD
tonn
e
Toluene blend value Toluene FOB Korea prices
95-TOL CF= 090
Strong TOL BV in H1 of 2014 results in the price support from gasoline blending strengthening relationship between the two
FOB K prices consistently higher than BV difficult to find demand from blending pool
95-TOL CF= 06895-TOL CF= 090
TOL BV surpasses TOL FOB K making it possible to be placed into blending pool for most of 2015
CF = correlation factorSource ICIS
wwwiciscom 38wwwiciscom 38
Chinese inventories have heavy influence on buying interest Q1 shortage supported sellersrsquo decision to offload more TOL
Ave = 103kt Ave = 903kt Ave = 89kt
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
USD
tonne0
00 to
nnes
east China south China CFR China price Import parity price of CNY cargoes
Strong demand from gasoline blending sector and cargo delays result in 3-year low inventories
Period of strong demand
Previously overbought slow offtake after LNY
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 39
S Korearsquos importexport position for TOL dependent on TDP spreads switch in production strategies in Q1 2016
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
50
100
150
200
25003
-Jan
-201
424
-Jan
-201
414
-Feb
-201
407
-Mar
-201
428
-Mar
-201
418
-Apr
-201
409
-May
-201
430
-May
-201
420
-Jun
-201
411
-Jul
-201
401
-Aug
-201
422
-Aug
-201
412
-Sep
-201
403
-Oct
-201
424
-Oct
-201
414
-Nov
-201
405
-Dec
-201
426
-Dec
-201
423
-Jan
-201
513
-Feb
-201
506
-Mar
-201
527
-Mar
-201
517
-Apr
-201
508
-May
-201
529
-May
-201
519
-Jun
-201
510
-Jul
-201
531
-Jul
-201
521
-Aug
-201
511
-Sep
-201
502
-Oct
-201
523
-Oct
-201
513
-Nov
-201
504
-Dec
-201
525
-Dec
-201
522
-Jan
-201
612
-Feb
-201
604
-Mar
-201
625
-Mar
-201
615
-Apr
-201
6
Qty in lsquo000 tonnes
USD
tonn
e
TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Exports from S Korea Imports to S Korea
Start up of UACrsquos TDP
Slight strategy switch as low Chinese inventories strong naphtha-TOL spread since Q1 leads to stronger TOL selling interest
Overall drop in TDP spreads from mid-2014 results in selling interest switch to net exporter
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 40
Heavier downstream unit turnarounds and production adjustments led to more S Korea-origin exports
H1 2015 H1 2016
0
20
40
60
80
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Qty
in 0
00 to
nnes
South Korea exports
China Taiwan Vietnam US Japan Singapore India Others
Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 13 00Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 00 00 18 00Hyundai Cosmo TDP Daesan 00 00 00 50 200 00S Oil No 2 TDP Onsan 00 00 00 200 00 00
00 00 00 250 231 00Producer LocationLG Chem Daesan 00 00 23 23 00 00YNCC No 1 Yeosu 00 00 00 00 50 50Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 00 00 00 08 63 00Lotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 23 00 00S Oil No 2 Onsan 00 00 124 267 00 00SKGC Incheon 67 00 00 00 00 00
67 00 147 321 113 50
Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)
Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)
Source ICIS
Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 00 87Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 27 00 00 00OCI TDI Kunsan 00 06 00 00 00 00GSCX STDP Yeosu 00 00 00 583 82 00Hanwha Total TDP Daesan 00 00 222 278 00 00SKGC TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 00 49 208LG H D A Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38
38 45 288 899 169 333Producer Location Hanwha Total Daesan 00 00 153 191 00 00GSCX Yeosu 00 00 00 174 49 00Lotte Chem Yeosu 00 00 00 47 16 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 00 78 333YNCC Yeosu 00 00 33 17 00 00
00 00 186 428 143 333
Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)
Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)
wwwiciscom 41wwwiciscom 41
NE Asia and SE Asia exports to China rise since H2 2015 on healthy netbacks strong demand
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
USD
tonne
Qty
in 0
00 to
nnes
Others
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
Import parity of domesticcargoesFOB South Korea prices
Increase in selling to China because of healthy netbacks weak TDP spread
Narrow gap results in fewer imports in line with FOB K price support from PX
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 42wwwiciscom 42
Exports from Asia to US market sporadic highly dependent on price gap gasoline blending season and Asia demand
0
10
20
30
40
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250Q
ty in 000 tonnesU
SDto
nne
Price gap (Asia prompt vs US forward) Exports from Asia to US
Open arbitrage opportunities result in increase of Asia exports
Consistent upward trend leads to selling interest
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 43wwwiciscom 43
India TOL imports mainly from SE Asia and Iran
46
23
17
37
4
2014
Singapore Thailand Iran S Korea Europe Others
2015
50
24
9
37
7
Source customs data
Total= 288kt Total= 288kt
wwwiciscom 44wwwiciscom 44
NE Asia TOL supply could outstrip demand in H2 2016 on heavier downstream turnarounds permanent shutdowns
H2 2015 H2 2016
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S Oil Onsan old TDP Onsan 00 42 42 00 00 00
00 42 42 00 00 00FCFC Aroma 2 TDP Mailiao 67 200 00 00 00 00
67 200 00 00 00 00JX Nippon Oil TDP Mizushima A 00 00 75 75 00 00
00 00 75 75 00 0067 242 117 75 00 00
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecLotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 73 25 00KPIC Ulsan 00 00 00 83 00 00S Oil No 1 Onsan 00 146 146 00 00 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 167 333 00OCI Yeosu 00 00 00 33 00 00
00 146 146 357 358 00Mitsui Chemicals Chiba 00 00 00 83 83 00JX Nippon Oil Mizushima A 00 00 117 233 00 00Tonen General Wakayama 00 00 00 69 92 00
00 00 117 385 175 00FCFC Aroma No 2 Mailiao 83 250 00 00 00 00CPC No 6 Kaohsiung 40 00 20 80 20 00CPC No3 Kaoshiung 00 00 00 00 83 55
123 250 20 80 103 55123 396 283 822 636 55
Est TOL consumption loss from KR
Est TOL consumption loss from TW
Est TOL production loss from KR
Total est consumption loss from NE Asia
Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia
CONSUMPTION (mt)
PRODUCTION (mt)
Est TOL consumption loss from JPN
Est TOL production loss from JPN
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUlsan Aromatics Center TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 1000 500 00SKGC TDP Incheon 00 00 00 83 42 00LG Chem H D A (shut since Jan) Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38
38 38 38 1122 580 38Taiyo Oil TDP cut rate only Kikuma 42 07 00 00 00 00MSNC TDI (shut since April) Omuta 65 65 65 65 65 65
107 72 65 65 65 65145 110 103 1187 645 103
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSKGC Incheon 00 00 00 133 67 00
00 00 00 133 67 00Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 00 00 108 108 00 00JFEC Chiba 00 00 14 42 00 00
00 00 122 150 00 00CPC No 7 Kaohsiung 00 00 00 27 108 00CPC No 3 Kaohsiung 110 00 00 00 00 00
110 00 00 27 108 00110 00 122 310 175 00
Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia
PRODUCTION (mt)
CONSUMPTION (mt)
Est TOL consumption loss from KR
Est TOL consumption loss from JPNTotal est consumption loss from NE Asia
Est TOL production loss from KR
Est TOL production loss from JPN
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016
Qty
in to
nnes
Total est consumption loss from NE Asia Total est production loss from NE AsiaSource ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45
Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance
Source ICIS
bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016
bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread
bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption
bull Improvements in TOL blend values
bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading
bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer
bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers
bull Other competitively priced blendstocks
bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL
bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China
TOL supply
TOL demand
Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors
wwwiciscom 46
Drivers of benzene trade flow
wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47
-60-40-200204060
500550600650700750800850900
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea
China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016
020000400006000080000
100000120000140000160000180000200000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Tonn
es
Others
MiddleEastThailand
Malaysia
Taiwan
Japan
SouthKorea
China imports
Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand
Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance
Strong appetite for imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48
Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
Pric
e ($
tonn
e)
Tonn
es
Shore tank inventories
E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity
2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite
Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains
Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49
-80-60-40-20020406080100
500550600650700750800850900950
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15
Tonn
es
OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea
Imports from Asia increase
Imports lower due to higher China prices
S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015
Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates
US imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50
Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600Ja
n-14
Feb-
14M
ar-1
4A
pr-1
4M
ay-1
4Ju
n-14
Jul-1
4A
ug-1
4Se
p-14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Dec
-14
Jan-
15Fe
b-15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
May
-15
Jun-
15Ju
l-15
Aug
-15
Sep-
15O
ct-1
5N
ov-1
5D
ec-1
5Ja
n-16
Feb-
16M
ar-1
6A
pr-1
6
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)Naphtha-Benzene
Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene
$346t $193t $230t
wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51
S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32
Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300
SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15
YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37
2015 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25
S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25
SK Global Chem Incheon 200
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16
OthersTaiwanChinaUS
S Korea exports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52
Outlook increased supply likely to head to China
Source ICIS industry
Company Location BZ Start up period
Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016
Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16
Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos
(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul
Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16
Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16
Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16
Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017
Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex
Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017
Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017
KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017
Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017
Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726
Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322
Product Company Location Capacity(kta)
BZ usage Start up period
SM
Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16
Donghao China 300 240 May-16
Phenol
PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16
Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16
Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17
PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017
Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017
CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17
CPL
Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16
China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16
Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16
MDI
Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017
Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017
Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017
Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972
Consumption within China in 2016 637 655
wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53
Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season
S Korea 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75
BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0
S Korea 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5
KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26
S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13
BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3
Japan 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36
Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12
BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0
Japan 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23
Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24
JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24
BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17
Source ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54
BZ demandBZ supply
bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China
bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ
bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene
bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units
bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher
bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure
bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed
bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand
Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55
Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom
Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom
Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom
Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom
wwwiciscom 56
Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets
Pricing information
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wwwiciscom 57
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wwwiciscom 5wwwiciscom 5
2016 Asia ethylene market review amp outlook
US ethane-based derivative expansions ndash an emerging threat
Agenda
wwwiciscom 6
2016 Asia ethylene market review amp outlook
wwwiciscom 77
Test
Asia ethylene prices surged to over 8-month high in H2 Mar 2016
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 88
Test
NE Asia naphtha-based ethylene margins exceeded $700tonne in Mar full-year outlook
likely to be strong
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 99
Test
Key price drivers Q1 2016
wwwiciscom 1010
Test
Crude recovering after hitting more than 12-year low
wwwiciscom 1111
Test
Downstream prices mostly higher after H1 Feb CNY holiday price gains led by SM
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 1212
SM makersrsquo strong margins supported high ethylene prices
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 1313Source ICIS
Weak margins of most other derivatives capped ethylene price gains towards late Mar
wwwiciscom 1414Source ICIS
Supply crimped by annual cracker turnaround season starting from late FebMar
wwwiciscom 15
Impact of industry consolidation snowballs Asahi Kasei mothballs cracker in 2016
Company Location
C2 capacity losses (lsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream capacity losses(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Cracker closure date
Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Jinshan China 150 Nov 2013
Mitsubishi Chemical Kashima Japan 392 92 LLDPE May 2014
CPC Corp Kaohsiung Taiwan 500 (No 5)SD advanced to Jul 2014 from end 2015
Sumitomo Chemical Chiba Japan 415 425 SM180 PO May 2015
Asahi Kasei Mizushima Japan 500 320 SM Mid Feb 2016
Total C2 capacity losses1957Source Industry
wwwiciscom 16
Production issues curtailed SE Asia supply
Company Location
C2 capacity (lsquo 000 tonnesyr) Operating status
Shell
PulauBukom Singapore Around 960
Shut in late Nov 2015 may restart in Julearly Aug 2016
Chandra AsriCilegonIndonesia 860
Q1 run rates at 50-85 after capacity expansion in Dec 2015
Source Industry
wwwiciscom 1717
Test
Key price drivers Q2-Q4 2016
wwwiciscom 18
Crude oversupply expected to ease in H2 2016
wwwiciscom 1919Source Industry
2016 ethylene production losses from cracker turnarounds largely in Q2-Q3 overall losses down
34 YoY
wwwiciscom 2020Source Industry
Net losses after including +70kta at Asahi-Mitsubishi JV cracker
Output losses higher than 2015 after factoring in Shellrsquos Singapore cracker outage Asahirsquos cracker closure
wwwiciscom 2121Source Industry
Japan becomes structurally tighter
wwwiciscom 2222Source Industry
S Korearsquos exports likely to stabilise at low levels of around 650kt in 2016 after falling for two years
wwwiciscom 2323
End 2015-2016 ethylene capacity expansions in AsiaMideast
Saudi+1800kta
India+3270kta
Iran+2000kta Japan
+70ktaChina+1615kta
Source Industry
Total 9015 kta
Indonesia+260kta
wwwiciscom 2424Source Industry
Cracker expansions concentrated in IndiaMideast mostly integrated
Company Location
C2 capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr) Start-up schedule
Chandra Asri Cilegon Indonesia +260 to 860 Dec 2015Asahi Kasei Mitsubishi Chemical Ethylene Corp Mizushima Japan +70 to 570 1 Apr 2016GAIL Auraiya India 450 400 PE End Feb 2016Brahmaputra Cracker and Polymer Ltd (BCPL) Lepetkata Assam India 220 220 HDPELLDPE End Q1 2016
ONGC Petro Additions (OPaL) Dahej Gujarat India 1100 340 HDPE 720HDPELLDPE Late Q2 2016
Reliance Jamnagar India 1500 750 MEG 550 LLDPE 450 LDPE End 2016
Sadara Chemical Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia 1500 350 LDPE 1080 solution PE Q2mid 2016 at earliest
Petro Rabigh Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia +300 to 1600 150 LDPEEVA 75 EPDM Apr 2016 (cracker only)
Kavian Petrochemical Bushehr Iran 1000Supply to domestic plants via west pipeline H2 20162017
Arvand Petrochemical Gachsaran Iran 1000Feeds own vinyls plants+pipeline customers H2 20162017
Total C27400
wwwiciscom 2525
Expansions in China centred on integrated coal-based projects
Source Industry
Company Location Facility
C2 capacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstreamcapacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr
Start-upschedule
Shenhua Yulin Shenmu Shaanxi MTO 300 300 PE Dec 2015Inner Mongolia ChinaCoal Mengda New Energy amp Chemical Industry
Erdos Inner Mongolia CTO 300
300HDPELLDPE Apr 2016
Shenhua Xinjiang Urumqi Xinjiang CTO 320 320 LDPE Late Q2 2016
Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Golmud Qinghai CTO 160 300 PVC Q3 2016
Fund (Changzhou) Energy amp Chemical Changzhou Jiangsu MTO 165 Q3 2016
Jiangsu Sailboat PetrochemicalLianyungang Jiangsu MTO 370
300 EVALDPE 180 EO 20 MEG Q4 2016
Total C21615 Will supply to Changzhou Dohowrsquos new 300kta SM plant
wwwiciscom 2626Source Industry
More capacity increases at crackers in NESE Asia in 2017
Company Location
C2 capacityadditions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Completion schedule
Korea Petrochemical Industry Co (KPIC)
Onsan South Korea +330 to 800 Mid 2017
Lotte Chemical TitanPasir Gudang Malaysia 90 H1 2017
CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals (CSPC)
Huizhou Guangdong China 1000
150 EO 480 EG400 HDPE 300 LLDPE 700 SM End 20172018
Total C2 1420
wwwiciscom 27Source Industry
Chinarsquos ethylene import demand in 2016 could increase to around 1550-1600kt from 2015rsquos 1516kt
wwwiciscom 2828
Arbitrage amp Mideast cargoes help offset regional supply shortfalls around 500-565kt expected in 2016
Source Industry
Saudi 170-175kt
US 130-140kt
Europe 200-250kt
Projected spot supply excludes term cargoes
wwwiciscom 29
US ethane-based derivative expansions ndash an emerging threat
wwwiciscom 30
Company LocationC2 capacity (rsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream (lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Start-up schedule
Chevron Phillips ChemicalCedar Bayou Texas 1500
500 Bimodal HDPE 500 mLLDPE at Sweeny Mid 2017
Dow Chemical Freeport Texas 1500400 ELITE PE 350 LDPE 320 elastomers 200 EPDM H1 2017
ExxonMobil Chemical Baytown Texas 1500650x2 mLLDPE plus LLDPE at Mont Belvieu H2 2017
Formosa PlasticsPoint Comfort Texas 1590
525 PE unspec 6255 LDPE1000 MEG 20172018
Occidental ChemicalMexichem Ingleside Texas 544 Feed into existing 1050 VCM Q1 2017
SasolLake Charles Louisiana 1500
450 LDPE 450 LLDPE 300EOEG 300 ethoxylatesdetergent alcohols 2018
Total C28134 Total PE 51005
2017-2018 US ethylene amp derivatives projects country to become major PE exporter
Source ICIS Chemical Business
wwwiciscom 31
Chinarsquos PE deficit to continue
wwwiciscom 32wwwiciscom 32
Asia ethylene market to remain tight in 2016
Low-cost US PE exports likely to begin in late 2017 operations of naphtha-based integrated producers in Asia may be impacted
Conclusion
wwwiciscom 33
Asiarsquos toluene and benzene trade flows
wwwiciscom 34
Drivers of Asiarsquos toluene trade flow
wwwiciscom 35wwwiciscom 35
Asiarsquos TOL prices still tracks PX but relationship may weaken on narrower TDP spreads wider toluene-naphtha gap
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
160002
-Jan
-201
422
-Jan
-201
412
-Feb
-201
404
-Mar
-201
424
-Mar
-201
411
-Apr
-201
401
-May
-201
421
-May
-201
410
-Jun
-201
430
-Jun
-201
418
-Jul
-201
407
-Aug
-201
427
-Aug
-201
416
-Sep
-201
406
-Oct
-201
424
-Oct
-201
413
-Nov
-201
403
-Dec
-201
423
-Dec
-201
421
-Jan
-201
510
-Feb
-201
504
-Mar
-201
524
-Mar
-201
513
-Apr
-201
504
-May
-201
522
-May
-201
511
-Jun
-201
501
-Jul
-201
521
-Jul
-201
511
-Aug
-201
531
-Aug
-201
518
-Sep
-201
508
-Oct
-201
528
-Oct
-201
517
-Nov
-201
507
-Dec
-201
504
-Jan
-201
622
-Jan
-201
615
-Feb
-201
604
-Mar
-201
624
-Mar
-201
6
TDP spread (U
SDtonne)
USD
tonn
e
TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Toluene FOB K PX CFR CN
CF 094
CF 095
CF = correlation factor
CF 092
CF= 093
Healthy margins prevailed in 2014 supporting the closer relationship between PX and TOL prices
Margins turned largely negative in 2015 weakening the relationship slightly Strong blend value (BV) of TOL had larger impact on prices
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 36wwwiciscom 36
Wider toluene-naphtha spread since end-2015 increased toluene selling impetus instead of downstream usage allocation
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400Price spread (U
SDtonne)
USD
tonn
e
Toluene-Naphtha spread Naphtha CFR Japan Toluene FOB South Korea
Heavy speculation low Chinese + Indian inventory healthy PX spread led to widened spread in Q1 2016
Price increases supported by start-up of UAC higher usage of TOL for TDP units in addition to summer blending season
Breakeven level
Ave = 230Ave = 170Ave = 170
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 37wwwiciscom 37
TOL heavily placed in blending pool in 2015 capping op rates of downstream TDPs 2016 situation may be reversed
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
USD
tonn
e
Toluene blend value Toluene FOB Korea prices
95-TOL CF= 090
Strong TOL BV in H1 of 2014 results in the price support from gasoline blending strengthening relationship between the two
FOB K prices consistently higher than BV difficult to find demand from blending pool
95-TOL CF= 06895-TOL CF= 090
TOL BV surpasses TOL FOB K making it possible to be placed into blending pool for most of 2015
CF = correlation factorSource ICIS
wwwiciscom 38wwwiciscom 38
Chinese inventories have heavy influence on buying interest Q1 shortage supported sellersrsquo decision to offload more TOL
Ave = 103kt Ave = 903kt Ave = 89kt
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
USD
tonne0
00 to
nnes
east China south China CFR China price Import parity price of CNY cargoes
Strong demand from gasoline blending sector and cargo delays result in 3-year low inventories
Period of strong demand
Previously overbought slow offtake after LNY
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 39
S Korearsquos importexport position for TOL dependent on TDP spreads switch in production strategies in Q1 2016
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
50
100
150
200
25003
-Jan
-201
424
-Jan
-201
414
-Feb
-201
407
-Mar
-201
428
-Mar
-201
418
-Apr
-201
409
-May
-201
430
-May
-201
420
-Jun
-201
411
-Jul
-201
401
-Aug
-201
422
-Aug
-201
412
-Sep
-201
403
-Oct
-201
424
-Oct
-201
414
-Nov
-201
405
-Dec
-201
426
-Dec
-201
423
-Jan
-201
513
-Feb
-201
506
-Mar
-201
527
-Mar
-201
517
-Apr
-201
508
-May
-201
529
-May
-201
519
-Jun
-201
510
-Jul
-201
531
-Jul
-201
521
-Aug
-201
511
-Sep
-201
502
-Oct
-201
523
-Oct
-201
513
-Nov
-201
504
-Dec
-201
525
-Dec
-201
522
-Jan
-201
612
-Feb
-201
604
-Mar
-201
625
-Mar
-201
615
-Apr
-201
6
Qty in lsquo000 tonnes
USD
tonn
e
TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Exports from S Korea Imports to S Korea
Start up of UACrsquos TDP
Slight strategy switch as low Chinese inventories strong naphtha-TOL spread since Q1 leads to stronger TOL selling interest
Overall drop in TDP spreads from mid-2014 results in selling interest switch to net exporter
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 40
Heavier downstream unit turnarounds and production adjustments led to more S Korea-origin exports
H1 2015 H1 2016
0
20
40
60
80
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Qty
in 0
00 to
nnes
South Korea exports
China Taiwan Vietnam US Japan Singapore India Others
Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 13 00Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 00 00 18 00Hyundai Cosmo TDP Daesan 00 00 00 50 200 00S Oil No 2 TDP Onsan 00 00 00 200 00 00
00 00 00 250 231 00Producer LocationLG Chem Daesan 00 00 23 23 00 00YNCC No 1 Yeosu 00 00 00 00 50 50Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 00 00 00 08 63 00Lotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 23 00 00S Oil No 2 Onsan 00 00 124 267 00 00SKGC Incheon 67 00 00 00 00 00
67 00 147 321 113 50
Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)
Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)
Source ICIS
Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 00 87Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 27 00 00 00OCI TDI Kunsan 00 06 00 00 00 00GSCX STDP Yeosu 00 00 00 583 82 00Hanwha Total TDP Daesan 00 00 222 278 00 00SKGC TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 00 49 208LG H D A Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38
38 45 288 899 169 333Producer Location Hanwha Total Daesan 00 00 153 191 00 00GSCX Yeosu 00 00 00 174 49 00Lotte Chem Yeosu 00 00 00 47 16 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 00 78 333YNCC Yeosu 00 00 33 17 00 00
00 00 186 428 143 333
Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)
Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)
wwwiciscom 41wwwiciscom 41
NE Asia and SE Asia exports to China rise since H2 2015 on healthy netbacks strong demand
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
USD
tonne
Qty
in 0
00 to
nnes
Others
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
Import parity of domesticcargoesFOB South Korea prices
Increase in selling to China because of healthy netbacks weak TDP spread
Narrow gap results in fewer imports in line with FOB K price support from PX
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 42wwwiciscom 42
Exports from Asia to US market sporadic highly dependent on price gap gasoline blending season and Asia demand
0
10
20
30
40
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250Q
ty in 000 tonnesU
SDto
nne
Price gap (Asia prompt vs US forward) Exports from Asia to US
Open arbitrage opportunities result in increase of Asia exports
Consistent upward trend leads to selling interest
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 43wwwiciscom 43
India TOL imports mainly from SE Asia and Iran
46
23
17
37
4
2014
Singapore Thailand Iran S Korea Europe Others
2015
50
24
9
37
7
Source customs data
Total= 288kt Total= 288kt
wwwiciscom 44wwwiciscom 44
NE Asia TOL supply could outstrip demand in H2 2016 on heavier downstream turnarounds permanent shutdowns
H2 2015 H2 2016
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S Oil Onsan old TDP Onsan 00 42 42 00 00 00
00 42 42 00 00 00FCFC Aroma 2 TDP Mailiao 67 200 00 00 00 00
67 200 00 00 00 00JX Nippon Oil TDP Mizushima A 00 00 75 75 00 00
00 00 75 75 00 0067 242 117 75 00 00
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecLotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 73 25 00KPIC Ulsan 00 00 00 83 00 00S Oil No 1 Onsan 00 146 146 00 00 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 167 333 00OCI Yeosu 00 00 00 33 00 00
00 146 146 357 358 00Mitsui Chemicals Chiba 00 00 00 83 83 00JX Nippon Oil Mizushima A 00 00 117 233 00 00Tonen General Wakayama 00 00 00 69 92 00
00 00 117 385 175 00FCFC Aroma No 2 Mailiao 83 250 00 00 00 00CPC No 6 Kaohsiung 40 00 20 80 20 00CPC No3 Kaoshiung 00 00 00 00 83 55
123 250 20 80 103 55123 396 283 822 636 55
Est TOL consumption loss from KR
Est TOL consumption loss from TW
Est TOL production loss from KR
Total est consumption loss from NE Asia
Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia
CONSUMPTION (mt)
PRODUCTION (mt)
Est TOL consumption loss from JPN
Est TOL production loss from JPN
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUlsan Aromatics Center TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 1000 500 00SKGC TDP Incheon 00 00 00 83 42 00LG Chem H D A (shut since Jan) Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38
38 38 38 1122 580 38Taiyo Oil TDP cut rate only Kikuma 42 07 00 00 00 00MSNC TDI (shut since April) Omuta 65 65 65 65 65 65
107 72 65 65 65 65145 110 103 1187 645 103
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSKGC Incheon 00 00 00 133 67 00
00 00 00 133 67 00Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 00 00 108 108 00 00JFEC Chiba 00 00 14 42 00 00
00 00 122 150 00 00CPC No 7 Kaohsiung 00 00 00 27 108 00CPC No 3 Kaohsiung 110 00 00 00 00 00
110 00 00 27 108 00110 00 122 310 175 00
Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia
PRODUCTION (mt)
CONSUMPTION (mt)
Est TOL consumption loss from KR
Est TOL consumption loss from JPNTotal est consumption loss from NE Asia
Est TOL production loss from KR
Est TOL production loss from JPN
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016
Qty
in to
nnes
Total est consumption loss from NE Asia Total est production loss from NE AsiaSource ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45
Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance
Source ICIS
bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016
bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread
bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption
bull Improvements in TOL blend values
bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading
bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer
bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers
bull Other competitively priced blendstocks
bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL
bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China
TOL supply
TOL demand
Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors
wwwiciscom 46
Drivers of benzene trade flow
wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47
-60-40-200204060
500550600650700750800850900
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea
China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016
020000400006000080000
100000120000140000160000180000200000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Tonn
es
Others
MiddleEastThailand
Malaysia
Taiwan
Japan
SouthKorea
China imports
Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand
Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance
Strong appetite for imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48
Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
Pric
e ($
tonn
e)
Tonn
es
Shore tank inventories
E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity
2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite
Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains
Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49
-80-60-40-20020406080100
500550600650700750800850900950
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15
Tonn
es
OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea
Imports from Asia increase
Imports lower due to higher China prices
S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015
Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates
US imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50
Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600Ja
n-14
Feb-
14M
ar-1
4A
pr-1
4M
ay-1
4Ju
n-14
Jul-1
4A
ug-1
4Se
p-14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Dec
-14
Jan-
15Fe
b-15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
May
-15
Jun-
15Ju
l-15
Aug
-15
Sep-
15O
ct-1
5N
ov-1
5D
ec-1
5Ja
n-16
Feb-
16M
ar-1
6A
pr-1
6
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)Naphtha-Benzene
Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene
$346t $193t $230t
wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51
S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32
Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300
SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15
YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37
2015 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25
S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25
SK Global Chem Incheon 200
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16
OthersTaiwanChinaUS
S Korea exports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52
Outlook increased supply likely to head to China
Source ICIS industry
Company Location BZ Start up period
Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016
Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16
Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos
(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul
Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16
Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16
Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16
Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017
Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex
Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017
Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017
KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017
Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017
Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726
Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322
Product Company Location Capacity(kta)
BZ usage Start up period
SM
Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16
Donghao China 300 240 May-16
Phenol
PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16
Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16
Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17
PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017
Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017
CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17
CPL
Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16
China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16
Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16
MDI
Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017
Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017
Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017
Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972
Consumption within China in 2016 637 655
wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53
Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season
S Korea 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75
BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0
S Korea 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5
KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26
S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13
BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3
Japan 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36
Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12
BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0
Japan 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23
Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24
JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24
BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17
Source ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54
BZ demandBZ supply
bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China
bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ
bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene
bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units
bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher
bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure
bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed
bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand
Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55
Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom
Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom
Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom
Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom
wwwiciscom 56
Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets
Pricing information
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Request your free sample report gtgt
We produce reliable price assessments and analyses covering Asian aromatics and olefins markets including price histories and a 12-month rolling price forecast enabling you to understand price drivers and settle your contract prices more confidently Our pricing coverage includes
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wwwiciscom 57
Bringing you faster more effective ways to improve productivity and decision making
Data ExpressAccess manage and analyse data easier than ever before with our Data Express solutions
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Set up email alerts for the most fluid markets to help you stay on top of market movements and enable you to react faster to price changes and other major developments
Market Alerts
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wwwiciscom 6
2016 Asia ethylene market review amp outlook
wwwiciscom 77
Test
Asia ethylene prices surged to over 8-month high in H2 Mar 2016
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 88
Test
NE Asia naphtha-based ethylene margins exceeded $700tonne in Mar full-year outlook
likely to be strong
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 99
Test
Key price drivers Q1 2016
wwwiciscom 1010
Test
Crude recovering after hitting more than 12-year low
wwwiciscom 1111
Test
Downstream prices mostly higher after H1 Feb CNY holiday price gains led by SM
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 1212
SM makersrsquo strong margins supported high ethylene prices
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 1313Source ICIS
Weak margins of most other derivatives capped ethylene price gains towards late Mar
wwwiciscom 1414Source ICIS
Supply crimped by annual cracker turnaround season starting from late FebMar
wwwiciscom 15
Impact of industry consolidation snowballs Asahi Kasei mothballs cracker in 2016
Company Location
C2 capacity losses (lsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream capacity losses(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Cracker closure date
Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Jinshan China 150 Nov 2013
Mitsubishi Chemical Kashima Japan 392 92 LLDPE May 2014
CPC Corp Kaohsiung Taiwan 500 (No 5)SD advanced to Jul 2014 from end 2015
Sumitomo Chemical Chiba Japan 415 425 SM180 PO May 2015
Asahi Kasei Mizushima Japan 500 320 SM Mid Feb 2016
Total C2 capacity losses1957Source Industry
wwwiciscom 16
Production issues curtailed SE Asia supply
Company Location
C2 capacity (lsquo 000 tonnesyr) Operating status
Shell
PulauBukom Singapore Around 960
Shut in late Nov 2015 may restart in Julearly Aug 2016
Chandra AsriCilegonIndonesia 860
Q1 run rates at 50-85 after capacity expansion in Dec 2015
Source Industry
wwwiciscom 1717
Test
Key price drivers Q2-Q4 2016
wwwiciscom 18
Crude oversupply expected to ease in H2 2016
wwwiciscom 1919Source Industry
2016 ethylene production losses from cracker turnarounds largely in Q2-Q3 overall losses down
34 YoY
wwwiciscom 2020Source Industry
Net losses after including +70kta at Asahi-Mitsubishi JV cracker
Output losses higher than 2015 after factoring in Shellrsquos Singapore cracker outage Asahirsquos cracker closure
wwwiciscom 2121Source Industry
Japan becomes structurally tighter
wwwiciscom 2222Source Industry
S Korearsquos exports likely to stabilise at low levels of around 650kt in 2016 after falling for two years
wwwiciscom 2323
End 2015-2016 ethylene capacity expansions in AsiaMideast
Saudi+1800kta
India+3270kta
Iran+2000kta Japan
+70ktaChina+1615kta
Source Industry
Total 9015 kta
Indonesia+260kta
wwwiciscom 2424Source Industry
Cracker expansions concentrated in IndiaMideast mostly integrated
Company Location
C2 capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr) Start-up schedule
Chandra Asri Cilegon Indonesia +260 to 860 Dec 2015Asahi Kasei Mitsubishi Chemical Ethylene Corp Mizushima Japan +70 to 570 1 Apr 2016GAIL Auraiya India 450 400 PE End Feb 2016Brahmaputra Cracker and Polymer Ltd (BCPL) Lepetkata Assam India 220 220 HDPELLDPE End Q1 2016
ONGC Petro Additions (OPaL) Dahej Gujarat India 1100 340 HDPE 720HDPELLDPE Late Q2 2016
Reliance Jamnagar India 1500 750 MEG 550 LLDPE 450 LDPE End 2016
Sadara Chemical Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia 1500 350 LDPE 1080 solution PE Q2mid 2016 at earliest
Petro Rabigh Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia +300 to 1600 150 LDPEEVA 75 EPDM Apr 2016 (cracker only)
Kavian Petrochemical Bushehr Iran 1000Supply to domestic plants via west pipeline H2 20162017
Arvand Petrochemical Gachsaran Iran 1000Feeds own vinyls plants+pipeline customers H2 20162017
Total C27400
wwwiciscom 2525
Expansions in China centred on integrated coal-based projects
Source Industry
Company Location Facility
C2 capacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstreamcapacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr
Start-upschedule
Shenhua Yulin Shenmu Shaanxi MTO 300 300 PE Dec 2015Inner Mongolia ChinaCoal Mengda New Energy amp Chemical Industry
Erdos Inner Mongolia CTO 300
300HDPELLDPE Apr 2016
Shenhua Xinjiang Urumqi Xinjiang CTO 320 320 LDPE Late Q2 2016
Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Golmud Qinghai CTO 160 300 PVC Q3 2016
Fund (Changzhou) Energy amp Chemical Changzhou Jiangsu MTO 165 Q3 2016
Jiangsu Sailboat PetrochemicalLianyungang Jiangsu MTO 370
300 EVALDPE 180 EO 20 MEG Q4 2016
Total C21615 Will supply to Changzhou Dohowrsquos new 300kta SM plant
wwwiciscom 2626Source Industry
More capacity increases at crackers in NESE Asia in 2017
Company Location
C2 capacityadditions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Completion schedule
Korea Petrochemical Industry Co (KPIC)
Onsan South Korea +330 to 800 Mid 2017
Lotte Chemical TitanPasir Gudang Malaysia 90 H1 2017
CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals (CSPC)
Huizhou Guangdong China 1000
150 EO 480 EG400 HDPE 300 LLDPE 700 SM End 20172018
Total C2 1420
wwwiciscom 27Source Industry
Chinarsquos ethylene import demand in 2016 could increase to around 1550-1600kt from 2015rsquos 1516kt
wwwiciscom 2828
Arbitrage amp Mideast cargoes help offset regional supply shortfalls around 500-565kt expected in 2016
Source Industry
Saudi 170-175kt
US 130-140kt
Europe 200-250kt
Projected spot supply excludes term cargoes
wwwiciscom 29
US ethane-based derivative expansions ndash an emerging threat
wwwiciscom 30
Company LocationC2 capacity (rsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream (lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Start-up schedule
Chevron Phillips ChemicalCedar Bayou Texas 1500
500 Bimodal HDPE 500 mLLDPE at Sweeny Mid 2017
Dow Chemical Freeport Texas 1500400 ELITE PE 350 LDPE 320 elastomers 200 EPDM H1 2017
ExxonMobil Chemical Baytown Texas 1500650x2 mLLDPE plus LLDPE at Mont Belvieu H2 2017
Formosa PlasticsPoint Comfort Texas 1590
525 PE unspec 6255 LDPE1000 MEG 20172018
Occidental ChemicalMexichem Ingleside Texas 544 Feed into existing 1050 VCM Q1 2017
SasolLake Charles Louisiana 1500
450 LDPE 450 LLDPE 300EOEG 300 ethoxylatesdetergent alcohols 2018
Total C28134 Total PE 51005
2017-2018 US ethylene amp derivatives projects country to become major PE exporter
Source ICIS Chemical Business
wwwiciscom 31
Chinarsquos PE deficit to continue
wwwiciscom 32wwwiciscom 32
Asia ethylene market to remain tight in 2016
Low-cost US PE exports likely to begin in late 2017 operations of naphtha-based integrated producers in Asia may be impacted
Conclusion
wwwiciscom 33
Asiarsquos toluene and benzene trade flows
wwwiciscom 34
Drivers of Asiarsquos toluene trade flow
wwwiciscom 35wwwiciscom 35
Asiarsquos TOL prices still tracks PX but relationship may weaken on narrower TDP spreads wider toluene-naphtha gap
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
160002
-Jan
-201
422
-Jan
-201
412
-Feb
-201
404
-Mar
-201
424
-Mar
-201
411
-Apr
-201
401
-May
-201
421
-May
-201
410
-Jun
-201
430
-Jun
-201
418
-Jul
-201
407
-Aug
-201
427
-Aug
-201
416
-Sep
-201
406
-Oct
-201
424
-Oct
-201
413
-Nov
-201
403
-Dec
-201
423
-Dec
-201
421
-Jan
-201
510
-Feb
-201
504
-Mar
-201
524
-Mar
-201
513
-Apr
-201
504
-May
-201
522
-May
-201
511
-Jun
-201
501
-Jul
-201
521
-Jul
-201
511
-Aug
-201
531
-Aug
-201
518
-Sep
-201
508
-Oct
-201
528
-Oct
-201
517
-Nov
-201
507
-Dec
-201
504
-Jan
-201
622
-Jan
-201
615
-Feb
-201
604
-Mar
-201
624
-Mar
-201
6
TDP spread (U
SDtonne)
USD
tonn
e
TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Toluene FOB K PX CFR CN
CF 094
CF 095
CF = correlation factor
CF 092
CF= 093
Healthy margins prevailed in 2014 supporting the closer relationship between PX and TOL prices
Margins turned largely negative in 2015 weakening the relationship slightly Strong blend value (BV) of TOL had larger impact on prices
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 36wwwiciscom 36
Wider toluene-naphtha spread since end-2015 increased toluene selling impetus instead of downstream usage allocation
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400Price spread (U
SDtonne)
USD
tonn
e
Toluene-Naphtha spread Naphtha CFR Japan Toluene FOB South Korea
Heavy speculation low Chinese + Indian inventory healthy PX spread led to widened spread in Q1 2016
Price increases supported by start-up of UAC higher usage of TOL for TDP units in addition to summer blending season
Breakeven level
Ave = 230Ave = 170Ave = 170
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 37wwwiciscom 37
TOL heavily placed in blending pool in 2015 capping op rates of downstream TDPs 2016 situation may be reversed
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
USD
tonn
e
Toluene blend value Toluene FOB Korea prices
95-TOL CF= 090
Strong TOL BV in H1 of 2014 results in the price support from gasoline blending strengthening relationship between the two
FOB K prices consistently higher than BV difficult to find demand from blending pool
95-TOL CF= 06895-TOL CF= 090
TOL BV surpasses TOL FOB K making it possible to be placed into blending pool for most of 2015
CF = correlation factorSource ICIS
wwwiciscom 38wwwiciscom 38
Chinese inventories have heavy influence on buying interest Q1 shortage supported sellersrsquo decision to offload more TOL
Ave = 103kt Ave = 903kt Ave = 89kt
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
USD
tonne0
00 to
nnes
east China south China CFR China price Import parity price of CNY cargoes
Strong demand from gasoline blending sector and cargo delays result in 3-year low inventories
Period of strong demand
Previously overbought slow offtake after LNY
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 39
S Korearsquos importexport position for TOL dependent on TDP spreads switch in production strategies in Q1 2016
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
50
100
150
200
25003
-Jan
-201
424
-Jan
-201
414
-Feb
-201
407
-Mar
-201
428
-Mar
-201
418
-Apr
-201
409
-May
-201
430
-May
-201
420
-Jun
-201
411
-Jul
-201
401
-Aug
-201
422
-Aug
-201
412
-Sep
-201
403
-Oct
-201
424
-Oct
-201
414
-Nov
-201
405
-Dec
-201
426
-Dec
-201
423
-Jan
-201
513
-Feb
-201
506
-Mar
-201
527
-Mar
-201
517
-Apr
-201
508
-May
-201
529
-May
-201
519
-Jun
-201
510
-Jul
-201
531
-Jul
-201
521
-Aug
-201
511
-Sep
-201
502
-Oct
-201
523
-Oct
-201
513
-Nov
-201
504
-Dec
-201
525
-Dec
-201
522
-Jan
-201
612
-Feb
-201
604
-Mar
-201
625
-Mar
-201
615
-Apr
-201
6
Qty in lsquo000 tonnes
USD
tonn
e
TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Exports from S Korea Imports to S Korea
Start up of UACrsquos TDP
Slight strategy switch as low Chinese inventories strong naphtha-TOL spread since Q1 leads to stronger TOL selling interest
Overall drop in TDP spreads from mid-2014 results in selling interest switch to net exporter
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 40
Heavier downstream unit turnarounds and production adjustments led to more S Korea-origin exports
H1 2015 H1 2016
0
20
40
60
80
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Qty
in 0
00 to
nnes
South Korea exports
China Taiwan Vietnam US Japan Singapore India Others
Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 13 00Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 00 00 18 00Hyundai Cosmo TDP Daesan 00 00 00 50 200 00S Oil No 2 TDP Onsan 00 00 00 200 00 00
00 00 00 250 231 00Producer LocationLG Chem Daesan 00 00 23 23 00 00YNCC No 1 Yeosu 00 00 00 00 50 50Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 00 00 00 08 63 00Lotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 23 00 00S Oil No 2 Onsan 00 00 124 267 00 00SKGC Incheon 67 00 00 00 00 00
67 00 147 321 113 50
Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)
Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)
Source ICIS
Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 00 87Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 27 00 00 00OCI TDI Kunsan 00 06 00 00 00 00GSCX STDP Yeosu 00 00 00 583 82 00Hanwha Total TDP Daesan 00 00 222 278 00 00SKGC TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 00 49 208LG H D A Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38
38 45 288 899 169 333Producer Location Hanwha Total Daesan 00 00 153 191 00 00GSCX Yeosu 00 00 00 174 49 00Lotte Chem Yeosu 00 00 00 47 16 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 00 78 333YNCC Yeosu 00 00 33 17 00 00
00 00 186 428 143 333
Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)
Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)
wwwiciscom 41wwwiciscom 41
NE Asia and SE Asia exports to China rise since H2 2015 on healthy netbacks strong demand
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
USD
tonne
Qty
in 0
00 to
nnes
Others
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
Import parity of domesticcargoesFOB South Korea prices
Increase in selling to China because of healthy netbacks weak TDP spread
Narrow gap results in fewer imports in line with FOB K price support from PX
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 42wwwiciscom 42
Exports from Asia to US market sporadic highly dependent on price gap gasoline blending season and Asia demand
0
10
20
30
40
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250Q
ty in 000 tonnesU
SDto
nne
Price gap (Asia prompt vs US forward) Exports from Asia to US
Open arbitrage opportunities result in increase of Asia exports
Consistent upward trend leads to selling interest
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 43wwwiciscom 43
India TOL imports mainly from SE Asia and Iran
46
23
17
37
4
2014
Singapore Thailand Iran S Korea Europe Others
2015
50
24
9
37
7
Source customs data
Total= 288kt Total= 288kt
wwwiciscom 44wwwiciscom 44
NE Asia TOL supply could outstrip demand in H2 2016 on heavier downstream turnarounds permanent shutdowns
H2 2015 H2 2016
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S Oil Onsan old TDP Onsan 00 42 42 00 00 00
00 42 42 00 00 00FCFC Aroma 2 TDP Mailiao 67 200 00 00 00 00
67 200 00 00 00 00JX Nippon Oil TDP Mizushima A 00 00 75 75 00 00
00 00 75 75 00 0067 242 117 75 00 00
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecLotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 73 25 00KPIC Ulsan 00 00 00 83 00 00S Oil No 1 Onsan 00 146 146 00 00 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 167 333 00OCI Yeosu 00 00 00 33 00 00
00 146 146 357 358 00Mitsui Chemicals Chiba 00 00 00 83 83 00JX Nippon Oil Mizushima A 00 00 117 233 00 00Tonen General Wakayama 00 00 00 69 92 00
00 00 117 385 175 00FCFC Aroma No 2 Mailiao 83 250 00 00 00 00CPC No 6 Kaohsiung 40 00 20 80 20 00CPC No3 Kaoshiung 00 00 00 00 83 55
123 250 20 80 103 55123 396 283 822 636 55
Est TOL consumption loss from KR
Est TOL consumption loss from TW
Est TOL production loss from KR
Total est consumption loss from NE Asia
Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia
CONSUMPTION (mt)
PRODUCTION (mt)
Est TOL consumption loss from JPN
Est TOL production loss from JPN
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUlsan Aromatics Center TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 1000 500 00SKGC TDP Incheon 00 00 00 83 42 00LG Chem H D A (shut since Jan) Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38
38 38 38 1122 580 38Taiyo Oil TDP cut rate only Kikuma 42 07 00 00 00 00MSNC TDI (shut since April) Omuta 65 65 65 65 65 65
107 72 65 65 65 65145 110 103 1187 645 103
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSKGC Incheon 00 00 00 133 67 00
00 00 00 133 67 00Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 00 00 108 108 00 00JFEC Chiba 00 00 14 42 00 00
00 00 122 150 00 00CPC No 7 Kaohsiung 00 00 00 27 108 00CPC No 3 Kaohsiung 110 00 00 00 00 00
110 00 00 27 108 00110 00 122 310 175 00
Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia
PRODUCTION (mt)
CONSUMPTION (mt)
Est TOL consumption loss from KR
Est TOL consumption loss from JPNTotal est consumption loss from NE Asia
Est TOL production loss from KR
Est TOL production loss from JPN
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016
Qty
in to
nnes
Total est consumption loss from NE Asia Total est production loss from NE AsiaSource ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45
Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance
Source ICIS
bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016
bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread
bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption
bull Improvements in TOL blend values
bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading
bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer
bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers
bull Other competitively priced blendstocks
bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL
bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China
TOL supply
TOL demand
Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors
wwwiciscom 46
Drivers of benzene trade flow
wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47
-60-40-200204060
500550600650700750800850900
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea
China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016
020000400006000080000
100000120000140000160000180000200000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Tonn
es
Others
MiddleEastThailand
Malaysia
Taiwan
Japan
SouthKorea
China imports
Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand
Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance
Strong appetite for imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48
Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
Pric
e ($
tonn
e)
Tonn
es
Shore tank inventories
E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity
2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite
Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains
Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49
-80-60-40-20020406080100
500550600650700750800850900950
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15
Tonn
es
OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea
Imports from Asia increase
Imports lower due to higher China prices
S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015
Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates
US imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50
Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600Ja
n-14
Feb-
14M
ar-1
4A
pr-1
4M
ay-1
4Ju
n-14
Jul-1
4A
ug-1
4Se
p-14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Dec
-14
Jan-
15Fe
b-15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
May
-15
Jun-
15Ju
l-15
Aug
-15
Sep-
15O
ct-1
5N
ov-1
5D
ec-1
5Ja
n-16
Feb-
16M
ar-1
6A
pr-1
6
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)Naphtha-Benzene
Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene
$346t $193t $230t
wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51
S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32
Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300
SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15
YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37
2015 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25
S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25
SK Global Chem Incheon 200
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16
OthersTaiwanChinaUS
S Korea exports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52
Outlook increased supply likely to head to China
Source ICIS industry
Company Location BZ Start up period
Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016
Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16
Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos
(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul
Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16
Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16
Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16
Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017
Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex
Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017
Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017
KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017
Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017
Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726
Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322
Product Company Location Capacity(kta)
BZ usage Start up period
SM
Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16
Donghao China 300 240 May-16
Phenol
PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16
Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16
Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17
PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017
Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017
CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17
CPL
Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16
China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16
Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16
MDI
Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017
Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017
Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017
Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972
Consumption within China in 2016 637 655
wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53
Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season
S Korea 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75
BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0
S Korea 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5
KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26
S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13
BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3
Japan 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36
Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12
BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0
Japan 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23
Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24
JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24
BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17
Source ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54
BZ demandBZ supply
bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China
bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ
bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene
bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units
bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher
bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure
bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed
bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand
Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55
Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom
Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom
Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom
Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom
wwwiciscom 56
Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets
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wwwiciscom 57
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wwwiciscom 77
Test
Asia ethylene prices surged to over 8-month high in H2 Mar 2016
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 88
Test
NE Asia naphtha-based ethylene margins exceeded $700tonne in Mar full-year outlook
likely to be strong
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 99
Test
Key price drivers Q1 2016
wwwiciscom 1010
Test
Crude recovering after hitting more than 12-year low
wwwiciscom 1111
Test
Downstream prices mostly higher after H1 Feb CNY holiday price gains led by SM
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 1212
SM makersrsquo strong margins supported high ethylene prices
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 1313Source ICIS
Weak margins of most other derivatives capped ethylene price gains towards late Mar
wwwiciscom 1414Source ICIS
Supply crimped by annual cracker turnaround season starting from late FebMar
wwwiciscom 15
Impact of industry consolidation snowballs Asahi Kasei mothballs cracker in 2016
Company Location
C2 capacity losses (lsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream capacity losses(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Cracker closure date
Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Jinshan China 150 Nov 2013
Mitsubishi Chemical Kashima Japan 392 92 LLDPE May 2014
CPC Corp Kaohsiung Taiwan 500 (No 5)SD advanced to Jul 2014 from end 2015
Sumitomo Chemical Chiba Japan 415 425 SM180 PO May 2015
Asahi Kasei Mizushima Japan 500 320 SM Mid Feb 2016
Total C2 capacity losses1957Source Industry
wwwiciscom 16
Production issues curtailed SE Asia supply
Company Location
C2 capacity (lsquo 000 tonnesyr) Operating status
Shell
PulauBukom Singapore Around 960
Shut in late Nov 2015 may restart in Julearly Aug 2016
Chandra AsriCilegonIndonesia 860
Q1 run rates at 50-85 after capacity expansion in Dec 2015
Source Industry
wwwiciscom 1717
Test
Key price drivers Q2-Q4 2016
wwwiciscom 18
Crude oversupply expected to ease in H2 2016
wwwiciscom 1919Source Industry
2016 ethylene production losses from cracker turnarounds largely in Q2-Q3 overall losses down
34 YoY
wwwiciscom 2020Source Industry
Net losses after including +70kta at Asahi-Mitsubishi JV cracker
Output losses higher than 2015 after factoring in Shellrsquos Singapore cracker outage Asahirsquos cracker closure
wwwiciscom 2121Source Industry
Japan becomes structurally tighter
wwwiciscom 2222Source Industry
S Korearsquos exports likely to stabilise at low levels of around 650kt in 2016 after falling for two years
wwwiciscom 2323
End 2015-2016 ethylene capacity expansions in AsiaMideast
Saudi+1800kta
India+3270kta
Iran+2000kta Japan
+70ktaChina+1615kta
Source Industry
Total 9015 kta
Indonesia+260kta
wwwiciscom 2424Source Industry
Cracker expansions concentrated in IndiaMideast mostly integrated
Company Location
C2 capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr) Start-up schedule
Chandra Asri Cilegon Indonesia +260 to 860 Dec 2015Asahi Kasei Mitsubishi Chemical Ethylene Corp Mizushima Japan +70 to 570 1 Apr 2016GAIL Auraiya India 450 400 PE End Feb 2016Brahmaputra Cracker and Polymer Ltd (BCPL) Lepetkata Assam India 220 220 HDPELLDPE End Q1 2016
ONGC Petro Additions (OPaL) Dahej Gujarat India 1100 340 HDPE 720HDPELLDPE Late Q2 2016
Reliance Jamnagar India 1500 750 MEG 550 LLDPE 450 LDPE End 2016
Sadara Chemical Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia 1500 350 LDPE 1080 solution PE Q2mid 2016 at earliest
Petro Rabigh Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia +300 to 1600 150 LDPEEVA 75 EPDM Apr 2016 (cracker only)
Kavian Petrochemical Bushehr Iran 1000Supply to domestic plants via west pipeline H2 20162017
Arvand Petrochemical Gachsaran Iran 1000Feeds own vinyls plants+pipeline customers H2 20162017
Total C27400
wwwiciscom 2525
Expansions in China centred on integrated coal-based projects
Source Industry
Company Location Facility
C2 capacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstreamcapacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr
Start-upschedule
Shenhua Yulin Shenmu Shaanxi MTO 300 300 PE Dec 2015Inner Mongolia ChinaCoal Mengda New Energy amp Chemical Industry
Erdos Inner Mongolia CTO 300
300HDPELLDPE Apr 2016
Shenhua Xinjiang Urumqi Xinjiang CTO 320 320 LDPE Late Q2 2016
Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Golmud Qinghai CTO 160 300 PVC Q3 2016
Fund (Changzhou) Energy amp Chemical Changzhou Jiangsu MTO 165 Q3 2016
Jiangsu Sailboat PetrochemicalLianyungang Jiangsu MTO 370
300 EVALDPE 180 EO 20 MEG Q4 2016
Total C21615 Will supply to Changzhou Dohowrsquos new 300kta SM plant
wwwiciscom 2626Source Industry
More capacity increases at crackers in NESE Asia in 2017
Company Location
C2 capacityadditions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Completion schedule
Korea Petrochemical Industry Co (KPIC)
Onsan South Korea +330 to 800 Mid 2017
Lotte Chemical TitanPasir Gudang Malaysia 90 H1 2017
CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals (CSPC)
Huizhou Guangdong China 1000
150 EO 480 EG400 HDPE 300 LLDPE 700 SM End 20172018
Total C2 1420
wwwiciscom 27Source Industry
Chinarsquos ethylene import demand in 2016 could increase to around 1550-1600kt from 2015rsquos 1516kt
wwwiciscom 2828
Arbitrage amp Mideast cargoes help offset regional supply shortfalls around 500-565kt expected in 2016
Source Industry
Saudi 170-175kt
US 130-140kt
Europe 200-250kt
Projected spot supply excludes term cargoes
wwwiciscom 29
US ethane-based derivative expansions ndash an emerging threat
wwwiciscom 30
Company LocationC2 capacity (rsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream (lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Start-up schedule
Chevron Phillips ChemicalCedar Bayou Texas 1500
500 Bimodal HDPE 500 mLLDPE at Sweeny Mid 2017
Dow Chemical Freeport Texas 1500400 ELITE PE 350 LDPE 320 elastomers 200 EPDM H1 2017
ExxonMobil Chemical Baytown Texas 1500650x2 mLLDPE plus LLDPE at Mont Belvieu H2 2017
Formosa PlasticsPoint Comfort Texas 1590
525 PE unspec 6255 LDPE1000 MEG 20172018
Occidental ChemicalMexichem Ingleside Texas 544 Feed into existing 1050 VCM Q1 2017
SasolLake Charles Louisiana 1500
450 LDPE 450 LLDPE 300EOEG 300 ethoxylatesdetergent alcohols 2018
Total C28134 Total PE 51005
2017-2018 US ethylene amp derivatives projects country to become major PE exporter
Source ICIS Chemical Business
wwwiciscom 31
Chinarsquos PE deficit to continue
wwwiciscom 32wwwiciscom 32
Asia ethylene market to remain tight in 2016
Low-cost US PE exports likely to begin in late 2017 operations of naphtha-based integrated producers in Asia may be impacted
Conclusion
wwwiciscom 33
Asiarsquos toluene and benzene trade flows
wwwiciscom 34
Drivers of Asiarsquos toluene trade flow
wwwiciscom 35wwwiciscom 35
Asiarsquos TOL prices still tracks PX but relationship may weaken on narrower TDP spreads wider toluene-naphtha gap
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
160002
-Jan
-201
422
-Jan
-201
412
-Feb
-201
404
-Mar
-201
424
-Mar
-201
411
-Apr
-201
401
-May
-201
421
-May
-201
410
-Jun
-201
430
-Jun
-201
418
-Jul
-201
407
-Aug
-201
427
-Aug
-201
416
-Sep
-201
406
-Oct
-201
424
-Oct
-201
413
-Nov
-201
403
-Dec
-201
423
-Dec
-201
421
-Jan
-201
510
-Feb
-201
504
-Mar
-201
524
-Mar
-201
513
-Apr
-201
504
-May
-201
522
-May
-201
511
-Jun
-201
501
-Jul
-201
521
-Jul
-201
511
-Aug
-201
531
-Aug
-201
518
-Sep
-201
508
-Oct
-201
528
-Oct
-201
517
-Nov
-201
507
-Dec
-201
504
-Jan
-201
622
-Jan
-201
615
-Feb
-201
604
-Mar
-201
624
-Mar
-201
6
TDP spread (U
SDtonne)
USD
tonn
e
TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Toluene FOB K PX CFR CN
CF 094
CF 095
CF = correlation factor
CF 092
CF= 093
Healthy margins prevailed in 2014 supporting the closer relationship between PX and TOL prices
Margins turned largely negative in 2015 weakening the relationship slightly Strong blend value (BV) of TOL had larger impact on prices
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 36wwwiciscom 36
Wider toluene-naphtha spread since end-2015 increased toluene selling impetus instead of downstream usage allocation
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400Price spread (U
SDtonne)
USD
tonn
e
Toluene-Naphtha spread Naphtha CFR Japan Toluene FOB South Korea
Heavy speculation low Chinese + Indian inventory healthy PX spread led to widened spread in Q1 2016
Price increases supported by start-up of UAC higher usage of TOL for TDP units in addition to summer blending season
Breakeven level
Ave = 230Ave = 170Ave = 170
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 37wwwiciscom 37
TOL heavily placed in blending pool in 2015 capping op rates of downstream TDPs 2016 situation may be reversed
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
USD
tonn
e
Toluene blend value Toluene FOB Korea prices
95-TOL CF= 090
Strong TOL BV in H1 of 2014 results in the price support from gasoline blending strengthening relationship between the two
FOB K prices consistently higher than BV difficult to find demand from blending pool
95-TOL CF= 06895-TOL CF= 090
TOL BV surpasses TOL FOB K making it possible to be placed into blending pool for most of 2015
CF = correlation factorSource ICIS
wwwiciscom 38wwwiciscom 38
Chinese inventories have heavy influence on buying interest Q1 shortage supported sellersrsquo decision to offload more TOL
Ave = 103kt Ave = 903kt Ave = 89kt
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
USD
tonne0
00 to
nnes
east China south China CFR China price Import parity price of CNY cargoes
Strong demand from gasoline blending sector and cargo delays result in 3-year low inventories
Period of strong demand
Previously overbought slow offtake after LNY
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 39
S Korearsquos importexport position for TOL dependent on TDP spreads switch in production strategies in Q1 2016
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
50
100
150
200
25003
-Jan
-201
424
-Jan
-201
414
-Feb
-201
407
-Mar
-201
428
-Mar
-201
418
-Apr
-201
409
-May
-201
430
-May
-201
420
-Jun
-201
411
-Jul
-201
401
-Aug
-201
422
-Aug
-201
412
-Sep
-201
403
-Oct
-201
424
-Oct
-201
414
-Nov
-201
405
-Dec
-201
426
-Dec
-201
423
-Jan
-201
513
-Feb
-201
506
-Mar
-201
527
-Mar
-201
517
-Apr
-201
508
-May
-201
529
-May
-201
519
-Jun
-201
510
-Jul
-201
531
-Jul
-201
521
-Aug
-201
511
-Sep
-201
502
-Oct
-201
523
-Oct
-201
513
-Nov
-201
504
-Dec
-201
525
-Dec
-201
522
-Jan
-201
612
-Feb
-201
604
-Mar
-201
625
-Mar
-201
615
-Apr
-201
6
Qty in lsquo000 tonnes
USD
tonn
e
TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Exports from S Korea Imports to S Korea
Start up of UACrsquos TDP
Slight strategy switch as low Chinese inventories strong naphtha-TOL spread since Q1 leads to stronger TOL selling interest
Overall drop in TDP spreads from mid-2014 results in selling interest switch to net exporter
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 40
Heavier downstream unit turnarounds and production adjustments led to more S Korea-origin exports
H1 2015 H1 2016
0
20
40
60
80
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Qty
in 0
00 to
nnes
South Korea exports
China Taiwan Vietnam US Japan Singapore India Others
Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 13 00Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 00 00 18 00Hyundai Cosmo TDP Daesan 00 00 00 50 200 00S Oil No 2 TDP Onsan 00 00 00 200 00 00
00 00 00 250 231 00Producer LocationLG Chem Daesan 00 00 23 23 00 00YNCC No 1 Yeosu 00 00 00 00 50 50Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 00 00 00 08 63 00Lotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 23 00 00S Oil No 2 Onsan 00 00 124 267 00 00SKGC Incheon 67 00 00 00 00 00
67 00 147 321 113 50
Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)
Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)
Source ICIS
Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 00 87Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 27 00 00 00OCI TDI Kunsan 00 06 00 00 00 00GSCX STDP Yeosu 00 00 00 583 82 00Hanwha Total TDP Daesan 00 00 222 278 00 00SKGC TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 00 49 208LG H D A Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38
38 45 288 899 169 333Producer Location Hanwha Total Daesan 00 00 153 191 00 00GSCX Yeosu 00 00 00 174 49 00Lotte Chem Yeosu 00 00 00 47 16 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 00 78 333YNCC Yeosu 00 00 33 17 00 00
00 00 186 428 143 333
Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)
Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)
wwwiciscom 41wwwiciscom 41
NE Asia and SE Asia exports to China rise since H2 2015 on healthy netbacks strong demand
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
USD
tonne
Qty
in 0
00 to
nnes
Others
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
Import parity of domesticcargoesFOB South Korea prices
Increase in selling to China because of healthy netbacks weak TDP spread
Narrow gap results in fewer imports in line with FOB K price support from PX
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 42wwwiciscom 42
Exports from Asia to US market sporadic highly dependent on price gap gasoline blending season and Asia demand
0
10
20
30
40
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250Q
ty in 000 tonnesU
SDto
nne
Price gap (Asia prompt vs US forward) Exports from Asia to US
Open arbitrage opportunities result in increase of Asia exports
Consistent upward trend leads to selling interest
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 43wwwiciscom 43
India TOL imports mainly from SE Asia and Iran
46
23
17
37
4
2014
Singapore Thailand Iran S Korea Europe Others
2015
50
24
9
37
7
Source customs data
Total= 288kt Total= 288kt
wwwiciscom 44wwwiciscom 44
NE Asia TOL supply could outstrip demand in H2 2016 on heavier downstream turnarounds permanent shutdowns
H2 2015 H2 2016
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S Oil Onsan old TDP Onsan 00 42 42 00 00 00
00 42 42 00 00 00FCFC Aroma 2 TDP Mailiao 67 200 00 00 00 00
67 200 00 00 00 00JX Nippon Oil TDP Mizushima A 00 00 75 75 00 00
00 00 75 75 00 0067 242 117 75 00 00
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecLotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 73 25 00KPIC Ulsan 00 00 00 83 00 00S Oil No 1 Onsan 00 146 146 00 00 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 167 333 00OCI Yeosu 00 00 00 33 00 00
00 146 146 357 358 00Mitsui Chemicals Chiba 00 00 00 83 83 00JX Nippon Oil Mizushima A 00 00 117 233 00 00Tonen General Wakayama 00 00 00 69 92 00
00 00 117 385 175 00FCFC Aroma No 2 Mailiao 83 250 00 00 00 00CPC No 6 Kaohsiung 40 00 20 80 20 00CPC No3 Kaoshiung 00 00 00 00 83 55
123 250 20 80 103 55123 396 283 822 636 55
Est TOL consumption loss from KR
Est TOL consumption loss from TW
Est TOL production loss from KR
Total est consumption loss from NE Asia
Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia
CONSUMPTION (mt)
PRODUCTION (mt)
Est TOL consumption loss from JPN
Est TOL production loss from JPN
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUlsan Aromatics Center TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 1000 500 00SKGC TDP Incheon 00 00 00 83 42 00LG Chem H D A (shut since Jan) Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38
38 38 38 1122 580 38Taiyo Oil TDP cut rate only Kikuma 42 07 00 00 00 00MSNC TDI (shut since April) Omuta 65 65 65 65 65 65
107 72 65 65 65 65145 110 103 1187 645 103
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSKGC Incheon 00 00 00 133 67 00
00 00 00 133 67 00Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 00 00 108 108 00 00JFEC Chiba 00 00 14 42 00 00
00 00 122 150 00 00CPC No 7 Kaohsiung 00 00 00 27 108 00CPC No 3 Kaohsiung 110 00 00 00 00 00
110 00 00 27 108 00110 00 122 310 175 00
Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia
PRODUCTION (mt)
CONSUMPTION (mt)
Est TOL consumption loss from KR
Est TOL consumption loss from JPNTotal est consumption loss from NE Asia
Est TOL production loss from KR
Est TOL production loss from JPN
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016
Qty
in to
nnes
Total est consumption loss from NE Asia Total est production loss from NE AsiaSource ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45
Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance
Source ICIS
bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016
bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread
bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption
bull Improvements in TOL blend values
bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading
bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer
bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers
bull Other competitively priced blendstocks
bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL
bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China
TOL supply
TOL demand
Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors
wwwiciscom 46
Drivers of benzene trade flow
wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47
-60-40-200204060
500550600650700750800850900
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea
China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016
020000400006000080000
100000120000140000160000180000200000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Tonn
es
Others
MiddleEastThailand
Malaysia
Taiwan
Japan
SouthKorea
China imports
Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand
Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance
Strong appetite for imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48
Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
Pric
e ($
tonn
e)
Tonn
es
Shore tank inventories
E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity
2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite
Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains
Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49
-80-60-40-20020406080100
500550600650700750800850900950
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15
Tonn
es
OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea
Imports from Asia increase
Imports lower due to higher China prices
S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015
Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates
US imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50
Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600Ja
n-14
Feb-
14M
ar-1
4A
pr-1
4M
ay-1
4Ju
n-14
Jul-1
4A
ug-1
4Se
p-14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Dec
-14
Jan-
15Fe
b-15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
May
-15
Jun-
15Ju
l-15
Aug
-15
Sep-
15O
ct-1
5N
ov-1
5D
ec-1
5Ja
n-16
Feb-
16M
ar-1
6A
pr-1
6
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)Naphtha-Benzene
Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene
$346t $193t $230t
wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51
S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32
Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300
SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15
YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37
2015 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25
S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25
SK Global Chem Incheon 200
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16
OthersTaiwanChinaUS
S Korea exports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52
Outlook increased supply likely to head to China
Source ICIS industry
Company Location BZ Start up period
Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016
Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16
Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos
(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul
Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16
Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16
Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16
Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017
Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex
Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017
Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017
KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017
Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017
Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726
Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322
Product Company Location Capacity(kta)
BZ usage Start up period
SM
Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16
Donghao China 300 240 May-16
Phenol
PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16
Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16
Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17
PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017
Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017
CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17
CPL
Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16
China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16
Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16
MDI
Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017
Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017
Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017
Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972
Consumption within China in 2016 637 655
wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53
Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season
S Korea 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75
BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0
S Korea 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5
KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26
S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13
BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3
Japan 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36
Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12
BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0
Japan 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23
Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24
JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24
BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17
Source ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54
BZ demandBZ supply
bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China
bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ
bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene
bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units
bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher
bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure
bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed
bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand
Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55
Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom
Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom
Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom
Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom
wwwiciscom 56
Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets
Pricing information
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wwwiciscom 57
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wwwiciscom 88
Test
NE Asia naphtha-based ethylene margins exceeded $700tonne in Mar full-year outlook
likely to be strong
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 99
Test
Key price drivers Q1 2016
wwwiciscom 1010
Test
Crude recovering after hitting more than 12-year low
wwwiciscom 1111
Test
Downstream prices mostly higher after H1 Feb CNY holiday price gains led by SM
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 1212
SM makersrsquo strong margins supported high ethylene prices
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 1313Source ICIS
Weak margins of most other derivatives capped ethylene price gains towards late Mar
wwwiciscom 1414Source ICIS
Supply crimped by annual cracker turnaround season starting from late FebMar
wwwiciscom 15
Impact of industry consolidation snowballs Asahi Kasei mothballs cracker in 2016
Company Location
C2 capacity losses (lsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream capacity losses(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Cracker closure date
Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Jinshan China 150 Nov 2013
Mitsubishi Chemical Kashima Japan 392 92 LLDPE May 2014
CPC Corp Kaohsiung Taiwan 500 (No 5)SD advanced to Jul 2014 from end 2015
Sumitomo Chemical Chiba Japan 415 425 SM180 PO May 2015
Asahi Kasei Mizushima Japan 500 320 SM Mid Feb 2016
Total C2 capacity losses1957Source Industry
wwwiciscom 16
Production issues curtailed SE Asia supply
Company Location
C2 capacity (lsquo 000 tonnesyr) Operating status
Shell
PulauBukom Singapore Around 960
Shut in late Nov 2015 may restart in Julearly Aug 2016
Chandra AsriCilegonIndonesia 860
Q1 run rates at 50-85 after capacity expansion in Dec 2015
Source Industry
wwwiciscom 1717
Test
Key price drivers Q2-Q4 2016
wwwiciscom 18
Crude oversupply expected to ease in H2 2016
wwwiciscom 1919Source Industry
2016 ethylene production losses from cracker turnarounds largely in Q2-Q3 overall losses down
34 YoY
wwwiciscom 2020Source Industry
Net losses after including +70kta at Asahi-Mitsubishi JV cracker
Output losses higher than 2015 after factoring in Shellrsquos Singapore cracker outage Asahirsquos cracker closure
wwwiciscom 2121Source Industry
Japan becomes structurally tighter
wwwiciscom 2222Source Industry
S Korearsquos exports likely to stabilise at low levels of around 650kt in 2016 after falling for two years
wwwiciscom 2323
End 2015-2016 ethylene capacity expansions in AsiaMideast
Saudi+1800kta
India+3270kta
Iran+2000kta Japan
+70ktaChina+1615kta
Source Industry
Total 9015 kta
Indonesia+260kta
wwwiciscom 2424Source Industry
Cracker expansions concentrated in IndiaMideast mostly integrated
Company Location
C2 capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr) Start-up schedule
Chandra Asri Cilegon Indonesia +260 to 860 Dec 2015Asahi Kasei Mitsubishi Chemical Ethylene Corp Mizushima Japan +70 to 570 1 Apr 2016GAIL Auraiya India 450 400 PE End Feb 2016Brahmaputra Cracker and Polymer Ltd (BCPL) Lepetkata Assam India 220 220 HDPELLDPE End Q1 2016
ONGC Petro Additions (OPaL) Dahej Gujarat India 1100 340 HDPE 720HDPELLDPE Late Q2 2016
Reliance Jamnagar India 1500 750 MEG 550 LLDPE 450 LDPE End 2016
Sadara Chemical Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia 1500 350 LDPE 1080 solution PE Q2mid 2016 at earliest
Petro Rabigh Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia +300 to 1600 150 LDPEEVA 75 EPDM Apr 2016 (cracker only)
Kavian Petrochemical Bushehr Iran 1000Supply to domestic plants via west pipeline H2 20162017
Arvand Petrochemical Gachsaran Iran 1000Feeds own vinyls plants+pipeline customers H2 20162017
Total C27400
wwwiciscom 2525
Expansions in China centred on integrated coal-based projects
Source Industry
Company Location Facility
C2 capacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstreamcapacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr
Start-upschedule
Shenhua Yulin Shenmu Shaanxi MTO 300 300 PE Dec 2015Inner Mongolia ChinaCoal Mengda New Energy amp Chemical Industry
Erdos Inner Mongolia CTO 300
300HDPELLDPE Apr 2016
Shenhua Xinjiang Urumqi Xinjiang CTO 320 320 LDPE Late Q2 2016
Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Golmud Qinghai CTO 160 300 PVC Q3 2016
Fund (Changzhou) Energy amp Chemical Changzhou Jiangsu MTO 165 Q3 2016
Jiangsu Sailboat PetrochemicalLianyungang Jiangsu MTO 370
300 EVALDPE 180 EO 20 MEG Q4 2016
Total C21615 Will supply to Changzhou Dohowrsquos new 300kta SM plant
wwwiciscom 2626Source Industry
More capacity increases at crackers in NESE Asia in 2017
Company Location
C2 capacityadditions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Completion schedule
Korea Petrochemical Industry Co (KPIC)
Onsan South Korea +330 to 800 Mid 2017
Lotte Chemical TitanPasir Gudang Malaysia 90 H1 2017
CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals (CSPC)
Huizhou Guangdong China 1000
150 EO 480 EG400 HDPE 300 LLDPE 700 SM End 20172018
Total C2 1420
wwwiciscom 27Source Industry
Chinarsquos ethylene import demand in 2016 could increase to around 1550-1600kt from 2015rsquos 1516kt
wwwiciscom 2828
Arbitrage amp Mideast cargoes help offset regional supply shortfalls around 500-565kt expected in 2016
Source Industry
Saudi 170-175kt
US 130-140kt
Europe 200-250kt
Projected spot supply excludes term cargoes
wwwiciscom 29
US ethane-based derivative expansions ndash an emerging threat
wwwiciscom 30
Company LocationC2 capacity (rsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream (lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Start-up schedule
Chevron Phillips ChemicalCedar Bayou Texas 1500
500 Bimodal HDPE 500 mLLDPE at Sweeny Mid 2017
Dow Chemical Freeport Texas 1500400 ELITE PE 350 LDPE 320 elastomers 200 EPDM H1 2017
ExxonMobil Chemical Baytown Texas 1500650x2 mLLDPE plus LLDPE at Mont Belvieu H2 2017
Formosa PlasticsPoint Comfort Texas 1590
525 PE unspec 6255 LDPE1000 MEG 20172018
Occidental ChemicalMexichem Ingleside Texas 544 Feed into existing 1050 VCM Q1 2017
SasolLake Charles Louisiana 1500
450 LDPE 450 LLDPE 300EOEG 300 ethoxylatesdetergent alcohols 2018
Total C28134 Total PE 51005
2017-2018 US ethylene amp derivatives projects country to become major PE exporter
Source ICIS Chemical Business
wwwiciscom 31
Chinarsquos PE deficit to continue
wwwiciscom 32wwwiciscom 32
Asia ethylene market to remain tight in 2016
Low-cost US PE exports likely to begin in late 2017 operations of naphtha-based integrated producers in Asia may be impacted
Conclusion
wwwiciscom 33
Asiarsquos toluene and benzene trade flows
wwwiciscom 34
Drivers of Asiarsquos toluene trade flow
wwwiciscom 35wwwiciscom 35
Asiarsquos TOL prices still tracks PX but relationship may weaken on narrower TDP spreads wider toluene-naphtha gap
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
160002
-Jan
-201
422
-Jan
-201
412
-Feb
-201
404
-Mar
-201
424
-Mar
-201
411
-Apr
-201
401
-May
-201
421
-May
-201
410
-Jun
-201
430
-Jun
-201
418
-Jul
-201
407
-Aug
-201
427
-Aug
-201
416
-Sep
-201
406
-Oct
-201
424
-Oct
-201
413
-Nov
-201
403
-Dec
-201
423
-Dec
-201
421
-Jan
-201
510
-Feb
-201
504
-Mar
-201
524
-Mar
-201
513
-Apr
-201
504
-May
-201
522
-May
-201
511
-Jun
-201
501
-Jul
-201
521
-Jul
-201
511
-Aug
-201
531
-Aug
-201
518
-Sep
-201
508
-Oct
-201
528
-Oct
-201
517
-Nov
-201
507
-Dec
-201
504
-Jan
-201
622
-Jan
-201
615
-Feb
-201
604
-Mar
-201
624
-Mar
-201
6
TDP spread (U
SDtonne)
USD
tonn
e
TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Toluene FOB K PX CFR CN
CF 094
CF 095
CF = correlation factor
CF 092
CF= 093
Healthy margins prevailed in 2014 supporting the closer relationship between PX and TOL prices
Margins turned largely negative in 2015 weakening the relationship slightly Strong blend value (BV) of TOL had larger impact on prices
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 36wwwiciscom 36
Wider toluene-naphtha spread since end-2015 increased toluene selling impetus instead of downstream usage allocation
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400Price spread (U
SDtonne)
USD
tonn
e
Toluene-Naphtha spread Naphtha CFR Japan Toluene FOB South Korea
Heavy speculation low Chinese + Indian inventory healthy PX spread led to widened spread in Q1 2016
Price increases supported by start-up of UAC higher usage of TOL for TDP units in addition to summer blending season
Breakeven level
Ave = 230Ave = 170Ave = 170
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 37wwwiciscom 37
TOL heavily placed in blending pool in 2015 capping op rates of downstream TDPs 2016 situation may be reversed
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
USD
tonn
e
Toluene blend value Toluene FOB Korea prices
95-TOL CF= 090
Strong TOL BV in H1 of 2014 results in the price support from gasoline blending strengthening relationship between the two
FOB K prices consistently higher than BV difficult to find demand from blending pool
95-TOL CF= 06895-TOL CF= 090
TOL BV surpasses TOL FOB K making it possible to be placed into blending pool for most of 2015
CF = correlation factorSource ICIS
wwwiciscom 38wwwiciscom 38
Chinese inventories have heavy influence on buying interest Q1 shortage supported sellersrsquo decision to offload more TOL
Ave = 103kt Ave = 903kt Ave = 89kt
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
USD
tonne0
00 to
nnes
east China south China CFR China price Import parity price of CNY cargoes
Strong demand from gasoline blending sector and cargo delays result in 3-year low inventories
Period of strong demand
Previously overbought slow offtake after LNY
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 39
S Korearsquos importexport position for TOL dependent on TDP spreads switch in production strategies in Q1 2016
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
50
100
150
200
25003
-Jan
-201
424
-Jan
-201
414
-Feb
-201
407
-Mar
-201
428
-Mar
-201
418
-Apr
-201
409
-May
-201
430
-May
-201
420
-Jun
-201
411
-Jul
-201
401
-Aug
-201
422
-Aug
-201
412
-Sep
-201
403
-Oct
-201
424
-Oct
-201
414
-Nov
-201
405
-Dec
-201
426
-Dec
-201
423
-Jan
-201
513
-Feb
-201
506
-Mar
-201
527
-Mar
-201
517
-Apr
-201
508
-May
-201
529
-May
-201
519
-Jun
-201
510
-Jul
-201
531
-Jul
-201
521
-Aug
-201
511
-Sep
-201
502
-Oct
-201
523
-Oct
-201
513
-Nov
-201
504
-Dec
-201
525
-Dec
-201
522
-Jan
-201
612
-Feb
-201
604
-Mar
-201
625
-Mar
-201
615
-Apr
-201
6
Qty in lsquo000 tonnes
USD
tonn
e
TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Exports from S Korea Imports to S Korea
Start up of UACrsquos TDP
Slight strategy switch as low Chinese inventories strong naphtha-TOL spread since Q1 leads to stronger TOL selling interest
Overall drop in TDP spreads from mid-2014 results in selling interest switch to net exporter
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 40
Heavier downstream unit turnarounds and production adjustments led to more S Korea-origin exports
H1 2015 H1 2016
0
20
40
60
80
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Qty
in 0
00 to
nnes
South Korea exports
China Taiwan Vietnam US Japan Singapore India Others
Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 13 00Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 00 00 18 00Hyundai Cosmo TDP Daesan 00 00 00 50 200 00S Oil No 2 TDP Onsan 00 00 00 200 00 00
00 00 00 250 231 00Producer LocationLG Chem Daesan 00 00 23 23 00 00YNCC No 1 Yeosu 00 00 00 00 50 50Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 00 00 00 08 63 00Lotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 23 00 00S Oil No 2 Onsan 00 00 124 267 00 00SKGC Incheon 67 00 00 00 00 00
67 00 147 321 113 50
Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)
Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)
Source ICIS
Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 00 87Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 27 00 00 00OCI TDI Kunsan 00 06 00 00 00 00GSCX STDP Yeosu 00 00 00 583 82 00Hanwha Total TDP Daesan 00 00 222 278 00 00SKGC TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 00 49 208LG H D A Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38
38 45 288 899 169 333Producer Location Hanwha Total Daesan 00 00 153 191 00 00GSCX Yeosu 00 00 00 174 49 00Lotte Chem Yeosu 00 00 00 47 16 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 00 78 333YNCC Yeosu 00 00 33 17 00 00
00 00 186 428 143 333
Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)
Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)
wwwiciscom 41wwwiciscom 41
NE Asia and SE Asia exports to China rise since H2 2015 on healthy netbacks strong demand
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
USD
tonne
Qty
in 0
00 to
nnes
Others
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
Import parity of domesticcargoesFOB South Korea prices
Increase in selling to China because of healthy netbacks weak TDP spread
Narrow gap results in fewer imports in line with FOB K price support from PX
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 42wwwiciscom 42
Exports from Asia to US market sporadic highly dependent on price gap gasoline blending season and Asia demand
0
10
20
30
40
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250Q
ty in 000 tonnesU
SDto
nne
Price gap (Asia prompt vs US forward) Exports from Asia to US
Open arbitrage opportunities result in increase of Asia exports
Consistent upward trend leads to selling interest
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 43wwwiciscom 43
India TOL imports mainly from SE Asia and Iran
46
23
17
37
4
2014
Singapore Thailand Iran S Korea Europe Others
2015
50
24
9
37
7
Source customs data
Total= 288kt Total= 288kt
wwwiciscom 44wwwiciscom 44
NE Asia TOL supply could outstrip demand in H2 2016 on heavier downstream turnarounds permanent shutdowns
H2 2015 H2 2016
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S Oil Onsan old TDP Onsan 00 42 42 00 00 00
00 42 42 00 00 00FCFC Aroma 2 TDP Mailiao 67 200 00 00 00 00
67 200 00 00 00 00JX Nippon Oil TDP Mizushima A 00 00 75 75 00 00
00 00 75 75 00 0067 242 117 75 00 00
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecLotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 73 25 00KPIC Ulsan 00 00 00 83 00 00S Oil No 1 Onsan 00 146 146 00 00 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 167 333 00OCI Yeosu 00 00 00 33 00 00
00 146 146 357 358 00Mitsui Chemicals Chiba 00 00 00 83 83 00JX Nippon Oil Mizushima A 00 00 117 233 00 00Tonen General Wakayama 00 00 00 69 92 00
00 00 117 385 175 00FCFC Aroma No 2 Mailiao 83 250 00 00 00 00CPC No 6 Kaohsiung 40 00 20 80 20 00CPC No3 Kaoshiung 00 00 00 00 83 55
123 250 20 80 103 55123 396 283 822 636 55
Est TOL consumption loss from KR
Est TOL consumption loss from TW
Est TOL production loss from KR
Total est consumption loss from NE Asia
Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia
CONSUMPTION (mt)
PRODUCTION (mt)
Est TOL consumption loss from JPN
Est TOL production loss from JPN
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUlsan Aromatics Center TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 1000 500 00SKGC TDP Incheon 00 00 00 83 42 00LG Chem H D A (shut since Jan) Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38
38 38 38 1122 580 38Taiyo Oil TDP cut rate only Kikuma 42 07 00 00 00 00MSNC TDI (shut since April) Omuta 65 65 65 65 65 65
107 72 65 65 65 65145 110 103 1187 645 103
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSKGC Incheon 00 00 00 133 67 00
00 00 00 133 67 00Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 00 00 108 108 00 00JFEC Chiba 00 00 14 42 00 00
00 00 122 150 00 00CPC No 7 Kaohsiung 00 00 00 27 108 00CPC No 3 Kaohsiung 110 00 00 00 00 00
110 00 00 27 108 00110 00 122 310 175 00
Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia
PRODUCTION (mt)
CONSUMPTION (mt)
Est TOL consumption loss from KR
Est TOL consumption loss from JPNTotal est consumption loss from NE Asia
Est TOL production loss from KR
Est TOL production loss from JPN
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016
Qty
in to
nnes
Total est consumption loss from NE Asia Total est production loss from NE AsiaSource ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45
Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance
Source ICIS
bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016
bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread
bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption
bull Improvements in TOL blend values
bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading
bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer
bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers
bull Other competitively priced blendstocks
bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL
bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China
TOL supply
TOL demand
Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors
wwwiciscom 46
Drivers of benzene trade flow
wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47
-60-40-200204060
500550600650700750800850900
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea
China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016
020000400006000080000
100000120000140000160000180000200000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Tonn
es
Others
MiddleEastThailand
Malaysia
Taiwan
Japan
SouthKorea
China imports
Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand
Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance
Strong appetite for imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48
Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
Pric
e ($
tonn
e)
Tonn
es
Shore tank inventories
E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity
2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite
Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains
Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49
-80-60-40-20020406080100
500550600650700750800850900950
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15
Tonn
es
OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea
Imports from Asia increase
Imports lower due to higher China prices
S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015
Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates
US imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50
Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600Ja
n-14
Feb-
14M
ar-1
4A
pr-1
4M
ay-1
4Ju
n-14
Jul-1
4A
ug-1
4Se
p-14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Dec
-14
Jan-
15Fe
b-15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
May
-15
Jun-
15Ju
l-15
Aug
-15
Sep-
15O
ct-1
5N
ov-1
5D
ec-1
5Ja
n-16
Feb-
16M
ar-1
6A
pr-1
6
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)Naphtha-Benzene
Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene
$346t $193t $230t
wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51
S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32
Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300
SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15
YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37
2015 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25
S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25
SK Global Chem Incheon 200
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16
OthersTaiwanChinaUS
S Korea exports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52
Outlook increased supply likely to head to China
Source ICIS industry
Company Location BZ Start up period
Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016
Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16
Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos
(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul
Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16
Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16
Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16
Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017
Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex
Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017
Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017
KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017
Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017
Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726
Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322
Product Company Location Capacity(kta)
BZ usage Start up period
SM
Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16
Donghao China 300 240 May-16
Phenol
PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16
Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16
Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17
PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017
Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017
CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17
CPL
Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16
China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16
Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16
MDI
Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017
Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017
Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017
Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972
Consumption within China in 2016 637 655
wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53
Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season
S Korea 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75
BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0
S Korea 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5
KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26
S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13
BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3
Japan 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36
Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12
BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0
Japan 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23
Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24
JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24
BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17
Source ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54
BZ demandBZ supply
bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China
bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ
bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene
bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units
bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher
bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure
bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed
bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand
Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55
Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom
Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom
Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom
Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom
wwwiciscom 56
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wwwiciscom 57
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wwwiciscom 99
Test
Key price drivers Q1 2016
wwwiciscom 1010
Test
Crude recovering after hitting more than 12-year low
wwwiciscom 1111
Test
Downstream prices mostly higher after H1 Feb CNY holiday price gains led by SM
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 1212
SM makersrsquo strong margins supported high ethylene prices
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 1313Source ICIS
Weak margins of most other derivatives capped ethylene price gains towards late Mar
wwwiciscom 1414Source ICIS
Supply crimped by annual cracker turnaround season starting from late FebMar
wwwiciscom 15
Impact of industry consolidation snowballs Asahi Kasei mothballs cracker in 2016
Company Location
C2 capacity losses (lsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream capacity losses(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Cracker closure date
Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Jinshan China 150 Nov 2013
Mitsubishi Chemical Kashima Japan 392 92 LLDPE May 2014
CPC Corp Kaohsiung Taiwan 500 (No 5)SD advanced to Jul 2014 from end 2015
Sumitomo Chemical Chiba Japan 415 425 SM180 PO May 2015
Asahi Kasei Mizushima Japan 500 320 SM Mid Feb 2016
Total C2 capacity losses1957Source Industry
wwwiciscom 16
Production issues curtailed SE Asia supply
Company Location
C2 capacity (lsquo 000 tonnesyr) Operating status
Shell
PulauBukom Singapore Around 960
Shut in late Nov 2015 may restart in Julearly Aug 2016
Chandra AsriCilegonIndonesia 860
Q1 run rates at 50-85 after capacity expansion in Dec 2015
Source Industry
wwwiciscom 1717
Test
Key price drivers Q2-Q4 2016
wwwiciscom 18
Crude oversupply expected to ease in H2 2016
wwwiciscom 1919Source Industry
2016 ethylene production losses from cracker turnarounds largely in Q2-Q3 overall losses down
34 YoY
wwwiciscom 2020Source Industry
Net losses after including +70kta at Asahi-Mitsubishi JV cracker
Output losses higher than 2015 after factoring in Shellrsquos Singapore cracker outage Asahirsquos cracker closure
wwwiciscom 2121Source Industry
Japan becomes structurally tighter
wwwiciscom 2222Source Industry
S Korearsquos exports likely to stabilise at low levels of around 650kt in 2016 after falling for two years
wwwiciscom 2323
End 2015-2016 ethylene capacity expansions in AsiaMideast
Saudi+1800kta
India+3270kta
Iran+2000kta Japan
+70ktaChina+1615kta
Source Industry
Total 9015 kta
Indonesia+260kta
wwwiciscom 2424Source Industry
Cracker expansions concentrated in IndiaMideast mostly integrated
Company Location
C2 capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr) Start-up schedule
Chandra Asri Cilegon Indonesia +260 to 860 Dec 2015Asahi Kasei Mitsubishi Chemical Ethylene Corp Mizushima Japan +70 to 570 1 Apr 2016GAIL Auraiya India 450 400 PE End Feb 2016Brahmaputra Cracker and Polymer Ltd (BCPL) Lepetkata Assam India 220 220 HDPELLDPE End Q1 2016
ONGC Petro Additions (OPaL) Dahej Gujarat India 1100 340 HDPE 720HDPELLDPE Late Q2 2016
Reliance Jamnagar India 1500 750 MEG 550 LLDPE 450 LDPE End 2016
Sadara Chemical Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia 1500 350 LDPE 1080 solution PE Q2mid 2016 at earliest
Petro Rabigh Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia +300 to 1600 150 LDPEEVA 75 EPDM Apr 2016 (cracker only)
Kavian Petrochemical Bushehr Iran 1000Supply to domestic plants via west pipeline H2 20162017
Arvand Petrochemical Gachsaran Iran 1000Feeds own vinyls plants+pipeline customers H2 20162017
Total C27400
wwwiciscom 2525
Expansions in China centred on integrated coal-based projects
Source Industry
Company Location Facility
C2 capacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstreamcapacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr
Start-upschedule
Shenhua Yulin Shenmu Shaanxi MTO 300 300 PE Dec 2015Inner Mongolia ChinaCoal Mengda New Energy amp Chemical Industry
Erdos Inner Mongolia CTO 300
300HDPELLDPE Apr 2016
Shenhua Xinjiang Urumqi Xinjiang CTO 320 320 LDPE Late Q2 2016
Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Golmud Qinghai CTO 160 300 PVC Q3 2016
Fund (Changzhou) Energy amp Chemical Changzhou Jiangsu MTO 165 Q3 2016
Jiangsu Sailboat PetrochemicalLianyungang Jiangsu MTO 370
300 EVALDPE 180 EO 20 MEG Q4 2016
Total C21615 Will supply to Changzhou Dohowrsquos new 300kta SM plant
wwwiciscom 2626Source Industry
More capacity increases at crackers in NESE Asia in 2017
Company Location
C2 capacityadditions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Completion schedule
Korea Petrochemical Industry Co (KPIC)
Onsan South Korea +330 to 800 Mid 2017
Lotte Chemical TitanPasir Gudang Malaysia 90 H1 2017
CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals (CSPC)
Huizhou Guangdong China 1000
150 EO 480 EG400 HDPE 300 LLDPE 700 SM End 20172018
Total C2 1420
wwwiciscom 27Source Industry
Chinarsquos ethylene import demand in 2016 could increase to around 1550-1600kt from 2015rsquos 1516kt
wwwiciscom 2828
Arbitrage amp Mideast cargoes help offset regional supply shortfalls around 500-565kt expected in 2016
Source Industry
Saudi 170-175kt
US 130-140kt
Europe 200-250kt
Projected spot supply excludes term cargoes
wwwiciscom 29
US ethane-based derivative expansions ndash an emerging threat
wwwiciscom 30
Company LocationC2 capacity (rsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream (lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Start-up schedule
Chevron Phillips ChemicalCedar Bayou Texas 1500
500 Bimodal HDPE 500 mLLDPE at Sweeny Mid 2017
Dow Chemical Freeport Texas 1500400 ELITE PE 350 LDPE 320 elastomers 200 EPDM H1 2017
ExxonMobil Chemical Baytown Texas 1500650x2 mLLDPE plus LLDPE at Mont Belvieu H2 2017
Formosa PlasticsPoint Comfort Texas 1590
525 PE unspec 6255 LDPE1000 MEG 20172018
Occidental ChemicalMexichem Ingleside Texas 544 Feed into existing 1050 VCM Q1 2017
SasolLake Charles Louisiana 1500
450 LDPE 450 LLDPE 300EOEG 300 ethoxylatesdetergent alcohols 2018
Total C28134 Total PE 51005
2017-2018 US ethylene amp derivatives projects country to become major PE exporter
Source ICIS Chemical Business
wwwiciscom 31
Chinarsquos PE deficit to continue
wwwiciscom 32wwwiciscom 32
Asia ethylene market to remain tight in 2016
Low-cost US PE exports likely to begin in late 2017 operations of naphtha-based integrated producers in Asia may be impacted
Conclusion
wwwiciscom 33
Asiarsquos toluene and benzene trade flows
wwwiciscom 34
Drivers of Asiarsquos toluene trade flow
wwwiciscom 35wwwiciscom 35
Asiarsquos TOL prices still tracks PX but relationship may weaken on narrower TDP spreads wider toluene-naphtha gap
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
160002
-Jan
-201
422
-Jan
-201
412
-Feb
-201
404
-Mar
-201
424
-Mar
-201
411
-Apr
-201
401
-May
-201
421
-May
-201
410
-Jun
-201
430
-Jun
-201
418
-Jul
-201
407
-Aug
-201
427
-Aug
-201
416
-Sep
-201
406
-Oct
-201
424
-Oct
-201
413
-Nov
-201
403
-Dec
-201
423
-Dec
-201
421
-Jan
-201
510
-Feb
-201
504
-Mar
-201
524
-Mar
-201
513
-Apr
-201
504
-May
-201
522
-May
-201
511
-Jun
-201
501
-Jul
-201
521
-Jul
-201
511
-Aug
-201
531
-Aug
-201
518
-Sep
-201
508
-Oct
-201
528
-Oct
-201
517
-Nov
-201
507
-Dec
-201
504
-Jan
-201
622
-Jan
-201
615
-Feb
-201
604
-Mar
-201
624
-Mar
-201
6
TDP spread (U
SDtonne)
USD
tonn
e
TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Toluene FOB K PX CFR CN
CF 094
CF 095
CF = correlation factor
CF 092
CF= 093
Healthy margins prevailed in 2014 supporting the closer relationship between PX and TOL prices
Margins turned largely negative in 2015 weakening the relationship slightly Strong blend value (BV) of TOL had larger impact on prices
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 36wwwiciscom 36
Wider toluene-naphtha spread since end-2015 increased toluene selling impetus instead of downstream usage allocation
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400Price spread (U
SDtonne)
USD
tonn
e
Toluene-Naphtha spread Naphtha CFR Japan Toluene FOB South Korea
Heavy speculation low Chinese + Indian inventory healthy PX spread led to widened spread in Q1 2016
Price increases supported by start-up of UAC higher usage of TOL for TDP units in addition to summer blending season
Breakeven level
Ave = 230Ave = 170Ave = 170
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 37wwwiciscom 37
TOL heavily placed in blending pool in 2015 capping op rates of downstream TDPs 2016 situation may be reversed
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
USD
tonn
e
Toluene blend value Toluene FOB Korea prices
95-TOL CF= 090
Strong TOL BV in H1 of 2014 results in the price support from gasoline blending strengthening relationship between the two
FOB K prices consistently higher than BV difficult to find demand from blending pool
95-TOL CF= 06895-TOL CF= 090
TOL BV surpasses TOL FOB K making it possible to be placed into blending pool for most of 2015
CF = correlation factorSource ICIS
wwwiciscom 38wwwiciscom 38
Chinese inventories have heavy influence on buying interest Q1 shortage supported sellersrsquo decision to offload more TOL
Ave = 103kt Ave = 903kt Ave = 89kt
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
USD
tonne0
00 to
nnes
east China south China CFR China price Import parity price of CNY cargoes
Strong demand from gasoline blending sector and cargo delays result in 3-year low inventories
Period of strong demand
Previously overbought slow offtake after LNY
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 39
S Korearsquos importexport position for TOL dependent on TDP spreads switch in production strategies in Q1 2016
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
50
100
150
200
25003
-Jan
-201
424
-Jan
-201
414
-Feb
-201
407
-Mar
-201
428
-Mar
-201
418
-Apr
-201
409
-May
-201
430
-May
-201
420
-Jun
-201
411
-Jul
-201
401
-Aug
-201
422
-Aug
-201
412
-Sep
-201
403
-Oct
-201
424
-Oct
-201
414
-Nov
-201
405
-Dec
-201
426
-Dec
-201
423
-Jan
-201
513
-Feb
-201
506
-Mar
-201
527
-Mar
-201
517
-Apr
-201
508
-May
-201
529
-May
-201
519
-Jun
-201
510
-Jul
-201
531
-Jul
-201
521
-Aug
-201
511
-Sep
-201
502
-Oct
-201
523
-Oct
-201
513
-Nov
-201
504
-Dec
-201
525
-Dec
-201
522
-Jan
-201
612
-Feb
-201
604
-Mar
-201
625
-Mar
-201
615
-Apr
-201
6
Qty in lsquo000 tonnes
USD
tonn
e
TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Exports from S Korea Imports to S Korea
Start up of UACrsquos TDP
Slight strategy switch as low Chinese inventories strong naphtha-TOL spread since Q1 leads to stronger TOL selling interest
Overall drop in TDP spreads from mid-2014 results in selling interest switch to net exporter
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 40
Heavier downstream unit turnarounds and production adjustments led to more S Korea-origin exports
H1 2015 H1 2016
0
20
40
60
80
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Qty
in 0
00 to
nnes
South Korea exports
China Taiwan Vietnam US Japan Singapore India Others
Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 13 00Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 00 00 18 00Hyundai Cosmo TDP Daesan 00 00 00 50 200 00S Oil No 2 TDP Onsan 00 00 00 200 00 00
00 00 00 250 231 00Producer LocationLG Chem Daesan 00 00 23 23 00 00YNCC No 1 Yeosu 00 00 00 00 50 50Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 00 00 00 08 63 00Lotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 23 00 00S Oil No 2 Onsan 00 00 124 267 00 00SKGC Incheon 67 00 00 00 00 00
67 00 147 321 113 50
Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)
Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)
Source ICIS
Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 00 87Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 27 00 00 00OCI TDI Kunsan 00 06 00 00 00 00GSCX STDP Yeosu 00 00 00 583 82 00Hanwha Total TDP Daesan 00 00 222 278 00 00SKGC TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 00 49 208LG H D A Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38
38 45 288 899 169 333Producer Location Hanwha Total Daesan 00 00 153 191 00 00GSCX Yeosu 00 00 00 174 49 00Lotte Chem Yeosu 00 00 00 47 16 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 00 78 333YNCC Yeosu 00 00 33 17 00 00
00 00 186 428 143 333
Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)
Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)
wwwiciscom 41wwwiciscom 41
NE Asia and SE Asia exports to China rise since H2 2015 on healthy netbacks strong demand
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
USD
tonne
Qty
in 0
00 to
nnes
Others
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
Import parity of domesticcargoesFOB South Korea prices
Increase in selling to China because of healthy netbacks weak TDP spread
Narrow gap results in fewer imports in line with FOB K price support from PX
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 42wwwiciscom 42
Exports from Asia to US market sporadic highly dependent on price gap gasoline blending season and Asia demand
0
10
20
30
40
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250Q
ty in 000 tonnesU
SDto
nne
Price gap (Asia prompt vs US forward) Exports from Asia to US
Open arbitrage opportunities result in increase of Asia exports
Consistent upward trend leads to selling interest
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 43wwwiciscom 43
India TOL imports mainly from SE Asia and Iran
46
23
17
37
4
2014
Singapore Thailand Iran S Korea Europe Others
2015
50
24
9
37
7
Source customs data
Total= 288kt Total= 288kt
wwwiciscom 44wwwiciscom 44
NE Asia TOL supply could outstrip demand in H2 2016 on heavier downstream turnarounds permanent shutdowns
H2 2015 H2 2016
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S Oil Onsan old TDP Onsan 00 42 42 00 00 00
00 42 42 00 00 00FCFC Aroma 2 TDP Mailiao 67 200 00 00 00 00
67 200 00 00 00 00JX Nippon Oil TDP Mizushima A 00 00 75 75 00 00
00 00 75 75 00 0067 242 117 75 00 00
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecLotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 73 25 00KPIC Ulsan 00 00 00 83 00 00S Oil No 1 Onsan 00 146 146 00 00 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 167 333 00OCI Yeosu 00 00 00 33 00 00
00 146 146 357 358 00Mitsui Chemicals Chiba 00 00 00 83 83 00JX Nippon Oil Mizushima A 00 00 117 233 00 00Tonen General Wakayama 00 00 00 69 92 00
00 00 117 385 175 00FCFC Aroma No 2 Mailiao 83 250 00 00 00 00CPC No 6 Kaohsiung 40 00 20 80 20 00CPC No3 Kaoshiung 00 00 00 00 83 55
123 250 20 80 103 55123 396 283 822 636 55
Est TOL consumption loss from KR
Est TOL consumption loss from TW
Est TOL production loss from KR
Total est consumption loss from NE Asia
Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia
CONSUMPTION (mt)
PRODUCTION (mt)
Est TOL consumption loss from JPN
Est TOL production loss from JPN
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUlsan Aromatics Center TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 1000 500 00SKGC TDP Incheon 00 00 00 83 42 00LG Chem H D A (shut since Jan) Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38
38 38 38 1122 580 38Taiyo Oil TDP cut rate only Kikuma 42 07 00 00 00 00MSNC TDI (shut since April) Omuta 65 65 65 65 65 65
107 72 65 65 65 65145 110 103 1187 645 103
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSKGC Incheon 00 00 00 133 67 00
00 00 00 133 67 00Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 00 00 108 108 00 00JFEC Chiba 00 00 14 42 00 00
00 00 122 150 00 00CPC No 7 Kaohsiung 00 00 00 27 108 00CPC No 3 Kaohsiung 110 00 00 00 00 00
110 00 00 27 108 00110 00 122 310 175 00
Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia
PRODUCTION (mt)
CONSUMPTION (mt)
Est TOL consumption loss from KR
Est TOL consumption loss from JPNTotal est consumption loss from NE Asia
Est TOL production loss from KR
Est TOL production loss from JPN
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016
Qty
in to
nnes
Total est consumption loss from NE Asia Total est production loss from NE AsiaSource ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45
Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance
Source ICIS
bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016
bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread
bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption
bull Improvements in TOL blend values
bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading
bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer
bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers
bull Other competitively priced blendstocks
bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL
bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China
TOL supply
TOL demand
Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors
wwwiciscom 46
Drivers of benzene trade flow
wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47
-60-40-200204060
500550600650700750800850900
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea
China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016
020000400006000080000
100000120000140000160000180000200000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Tonn
es
Others
MiddleEastThailand
Malaysia
Taiwan
Japan
SouthKorea
China imports
Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand
Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance
Strong appetite for imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48
Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
Pric
e ($
tonn
e)
Tonn
es
Shore tank inventories
E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity
2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite
Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains
Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49
-80-60-40-20020406080100
500550600650700750800850900950
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15
Tonn
es
OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea
Imports from Asia increase
Imports lower due to higher China prices
S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015
Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates
US imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50
Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600Ja
n-14
Feb-
14M
ar-1
4A
pr-1
4M
ay-1
4Ju
n-14
Jul-1
4A
ug-1
4Se
p-14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Dec
-14
Jan-
15Fe
b-15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
May
-15
Jun-
15Ju
l-15
Aug
-15
Sep-
15O
ct-1
5N
ov-1
5D
ec-1
5Ja
n-16
Feb-
16M
ar-1
6A
pr-1
6
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)Naphtha-Benzene
Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene
$346t $193t $230t
wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51
S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32
Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300
SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15
YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37
2015 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25
S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25
SK Global Chem Incheon 200
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16
OthersTaiwanChinaUS
S Korea exports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52
Outlook increased supply likely to head to China
Source ICIS industry
Company Location BZ Start up period
Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016
Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16
Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos
(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul
Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16
Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16
Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16
Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017
Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex
Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017
Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017
KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017
Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017
Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726
Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322
Product Company Location Capacity(kta)
BZ usage Start up period
SM
Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16
Donghao China 300 240 May-16
Phenol
PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16
Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16
Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17
PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017
Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017
CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17
CPL
Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16
China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16
Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16
MDI
Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017
Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017
Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017
Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972
Consumption within China in 2016 637 655
wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53
Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season
S Korea 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75
BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0
S Korea 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5
KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26
S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13
BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3
Japan 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36
Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12
BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0
Japan 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23
Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24
JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24
BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17
Source ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54
BZ demandBZ supply
bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China
bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ
bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene
bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units
bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher
bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure
bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed
bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand
Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55
Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom
Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom
Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom
Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom
wwwiciscom 56
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wwwiciscom 57
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wwwiciscom 1010
Test
Crude recovering after hitting more than 12-year low
wwwiciscom 1111
Test
Downstream prices mostly higher after H1 Feb CNY holiday price gains led by SM
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 1212
SM makersrsquo strong margins supported high ethylene prices
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 1313Source ICIS
Weak margins of most other derivatives capped ethylene price gains towards late Mar
wwwiciscom 1414Source ICIS
Supply crimped by annual cracker turnaround season starting from late FebMar
wwwiciscom 15
Impact of industry consolidation snowballs Asahi Kasei mothballs cracker in 2016
Company Location
C2 capacity losses (lsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream capacity losses(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Cracker closure date
Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Jinshan China 150 Nov 2013
Mitsubishi Chemical Kashima Japan 392 92 LLDPE May 2014
CPC Corp Kaohsiung Taiwan 500 (No 5)SD advanced to Jul 2014 from end 2015
Sumitomo Chemical Chiba Japan 415 425 SM180 PO May 2015
Asahi Kasei Mizushima Japan 500 320 SM Mid Feb 2016
Total C2 capacity losses1957Source Industry
wwwiciscom 16
Production issues curtailed SE Asia supply
Company Location
C2 capacity (lsquo 000 tonnesyr) Operating status
Shell
PulauBukom Singapore Around 960
Shut in late Nov 2015 may restart in Julearly Aug 2016
Chandra AsriCilegonIndonesia 860
Q1 run rates at 50-85 after capacity expansion in Dec 2015
Source Industry
wwwiciscom 1717
Test
Key price drivers Q2-Q4 2016
wwwiciscom 18
Crude oversupply expected to ease in H2 2016
wwwiciscom 1919Source Industry
2016 ethylene production losses from cracker turnarounds largely in Q2-Q3 overall losses down
34 YoY
wwwiciscom 2020Source Industry
Net losses after including +70kta at Asahi-Mitsubishi JV cracker
Output losses higher than 2015 after factoring in Shellrsquos Singapore cracker outage Asahirsquos cracker closure
wwwiciscom 2121Source Industry
Japan becomes structurally tighter
wwwiciscom 2222Source Industry
S Korearsquos exports likely to stabilise at low levels of around 650kt in 2016 after falling for two years
wwwiciscom 2323
End 2015-2016 ethylene capacity expansions in AsiaMideast
Saudi+1800kta
India+3270kta
Iran+2000kta Japan
+70ktaChina+1615kta
Source Industry
Total 9015 kta
Indonesia+260kta
wwwiciscom 2424Source Industry
Cracker expansions concentrated in IndiaMideast mostly integrated
Company Location
C2 capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr) Start-up schedule
Chandra Asri Cilegon Indonesia +260 to 860 Dec 2015Asahi Kasei Mitsubishi Chemical Ethylene Corp Mizushima Japan +70 to 570 1 Apr 2016GAIL Auraiya India 450 400 PE End Feb 2016Brahmaputra Cracker and Polymer Ltd (BCPL) Lepetkata Assam India 220 220 HDPELLDPE End Q1 2016
ONGC Petro Additions (OPaL) Dahej Gujarat India 1100 340 HDPE 720HDPELLDPE Late Q2 2016
Reliance Jamnagar India 1500 750 MEG 550 LLDPE 450 LDPE End 2016
Sadara Chemical Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia 1500 350 LDPE 1080 solution PE Q2mid 2016 at earliest
Petro Rabigh Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia +300 to 1600 150 LDPEEVA 75 EPDM Apr 2016 (cracker only)
Kavian Petrochemical Bushehr Iran 1000Supply to domestic plants via west pipeline H2 20162017
Arvand Petrochemical Gachsaran Iran 1000Feeds own vinyls plants+pipeline customers H2 20162017
Total C27400
wwwiciscom 2525
Expansions in China centred on integrated coal-based projects
Source Industry
Company Location Facility
C2 capacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstreamcapacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr
Start-upschedule
Shenhua Yulin Shenmu Shaanxi MTO 300 300 PE Dec 2015Inner Mongolia ChinaCoal Mengda New Energy amp Chemical Industry
Erdos Inner Mongolia CTO 300
300HDPELLDPE Apr 2016
Shenhua Xinjiang Urumqi Xinjiang CTO 320 320 LDPE Late Q2 2016
Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Golmud Qinghai CTO 160 300 PVC Q3 2016
Fund (Changzhou) Energy amp Chemical Changzhou Jiangsu MTO 165 Q3 2016
Jiangsu Sailboat PetrochemicalLianyungang Jiangsu MTO 370
300 EVALDPE 180 EO 20 MEG Q4 2016
Total C21615 Will supply to Changzhou Dohowrsquos new 300kta SM plant
wwwiciscom 2626Source Industry
More capacity increases at crackers in NESE Asia in 2017
Company Location
C2 capacityadditions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Completion schedule
Korea Petrochemical Industry Co (KPIC)
Onsan South Korea +330 to 800 Mid 2017
Lotte Chemical TitanPasir Gudang Malaysia 90 H1 2017
CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals (CSPC)
Huizhou Guangdong China 1000
150 EO 480 EG400 HDPE 300 LLDPE 700 SM End 20172018
Total C2 1420
wwwiciscom 27Source Industry
Chinarsquos ethylene import demand in 2016 could increase to around 1550-1600kt from 2015rsquos 1516kt
wwwiciscom 2828
Arbitrage amp Mideast cargoes help offset regional supply shortfalls around 500-565kt expected in 2016
Source Industry
Saudi 170-175kt
US 130-140kt
Europe 200-250kt
Projected spot supply excludes term cargoes
wwwiciscom 29
US ethane-based derivative expansions ndash an emerging threat
wwwiciscom 30
Company LocationC2 capacity (rsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream (lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Start-up schedule
Chevron Phillips ChemicalCedar Bayou Texas 1500
500 Bimodal HDPE 500 mLLDPE at Sweeny Mid 2017
Dow Chemical Freeport Texas 1500400 ELITE PE 350 LDPE 320 elastomers 200 EPDM H1 2017
ExxonMobil Chemical Baytown Texas 1500650x2 mLLDPE plus LLDPE at Mont Belvieu H2 2017
Formosa PlasticsPoint Comfort Texas 1590
525 PE unspec 6255 LDPE1000 MEG 20172018
Occidental ChemicalMexichem Ingleside Texas 544 Feed into existing 1050 VCM Q1 2017
SasolLake Charles Louisiana 1500
450 LDPE 450 LLDPE 300EOEG 300 ethoxylatesdetergent alcohols 2018
Total C28134 Total PE 51005
2017-2018 US ethylene amp derivatives projects country to become major PE exporter
Source ICIS Chemical Business
wwwiciscom 31
Chinarsquos PE deficit to continue
wwwiciscom 32wwwiciscom 32
Asia ethylene market to remain tight in 2016
Low-cost US PE exports likely to begin in late 2017 operations of naphtha-based integrated producers in Asia may be impacted
Conclusion
wwwiciscom 33
Asiarsquos toluene and benzene trade flows
wwwiciscom 34
Drivers of Asiarsquos toluene trade flow
wwwiciscom 35wwwiciscom 35
Asiarsquos TOL prices still tracks PX but relationship may weaken on narrower TDP spreads wider toluene-naphtha gap
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
160002
-Jan
-201
422
-Jan
-201
412
-Feb
-201
404
-Mar
-201
424
-Mar
-201
411
-Apr
-201
401
-May
-201
421
-May
-201
410
-Jun
-201
430
-Jun
-201
418
-Jul
-201
407
-Aug
-201
427
-Aug
-201
416
-Sep
-201
406
-Oct
-201
424
-Oct
-201
413
-Nov
-201
403
-Dec
-201
423
-Dec
-201
421
-Jan
-201
510
-Feb
-201
504
-Mar
-201
524
-Mar
-201
513
-Apr
-201
504
-May
-201
522
-May
-201
511
-Jun
-201
501
-Jul
-201
521
-Jul
-201
511
-Aug
-201
531
-Aug
-201
518
-Sep
-201
508
-Oct
-201
528
-Oct
-201
517
-Nov
-201
507
-Dec
-201
504
-Jan
-201
622
-Jan
-201
615
-Feb
-201
604
-Mar
-201
624
-Mar
-201
6
TDP spread (U
SDtonne)
USD
tonn
e
TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Toluene FOB K PX CFR CN
CF 094
CF 095
CF = correlation factor
CF 092
CF= 093
Healthy margins prevailed in 2014 supporting the closer relationship between PX and TOL prices
Margins turned largely negative in 2015 weakening the relationship slightly Strong blend value (BV) of TOL had larger impact on prices
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 36wwwiciscom 36
Wider toluene-naphtha spread since end-2015 increased toluene selling impetus instead of downstream usage allocation
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400Price spread (U
SDtonne)
USD
tonn
e
Toluene-Naphtha spread Naphtha CFR Japan Toluene FOB South Korea
Heavy speculation low Chinese + Indian inventory healthy PX spread led to widened spread in Q1 2016
Price increases supported by start-up of UAC higher usage of TOL for TDP units in addition to summer blending season
Breakeven level
Ave = 230Ave = 170Ave = 170
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 37wwwiciscom 37
TOL heavily placed in blending pool in 2015 capping op rates of downstream TDPs 2016 situation may be reversed
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
USD
tonn
e
Toluene blend value Toluene FOB Korea prices
95-TOL CF= 090
Strong TOL BV in H1 of 2014 results in the price support from gasoline blending strengthening relationship between the two
FOB K prices consistently higher than BV difficult to find demand from blending pool
95-TOL CF= 06895-TOL CF= 090
TOL BV surpasses TOL FOB K making it possible to be placed into blending pool for most of 2015
CF = correlation factorSource ICIS
wwwiciscom 38wwwiciscom 38
Chinese inventories have heavy influence on buying interest Q1 shortage supported sellersrsquo decision to offload more TOL
Ave = 103kt Ave = 903kt Ave = 89kt
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
USD
tonne0
00 to
nnes
east China south China CFR China price Import parity price of CNY cargoes
Strong demand from gasoline blending sector and cargo delays result in 3-year low inventories
Period of strong demand
Previously overbought slow offtake after LNY
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 39
S Korearsquos importexport position for TOL dependent on TDP spreads switch in production strategies in Q1 2016
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
50
100
150
200
25003
-Jan
-201
424
-Jan
-201
414
-Feb
-201
407
-Mar
-201
428
-Mar
-201
418
-Apr
-201
409
-May
-201
430
-May
-201
420
-Jun
-201
411
-Jul
-201
401
-Aug
-201
422
-Aug
-201
412
-Sep
-201
403
-Oct
-201
424
-Oct
-201
414
-Nov
-201
405
-Dec
-201
426
-Dec
-201
423
-Jan
-201
513
-Feb
-201
506
-Mar
-201
527
-Mar
-201
517
-Apr
-201
508
-May
-201
529
-May
-201
519
-Jun
-201
510
-Jul
-201
531
-Jul
-201
521
-Aug
-201
511
-Sep
-201
502
-Oct
-201
523
-Oct
-201
513
-Nov
-201
504
-Dec
-201
525
-Dec
-201
522
-Jan
-201
612
-Feb
-201
604
-Mar
-201
625
-Mar
-201
615
-Apr
-201
6
Qty in lsquo000 tonnes
USD
tonn
e
TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Exports from S Korea Imports to S Korea
Start up of UACrsquos TDP
Slight strategy switch as low Chinese inventories strong naphtha-TOL spread since Q1 leads to stronger TOL selling interest
Overall drop in TDP spreads from mid-2014 results in selling interest switch to net exporter
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 40
Heavier downstream unit turnarounds and production adjustments led to more S Korea-origin exports
H1 2015 H1 2016
0
20
40
60
80
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Qty
in 0
00 to
nnes
South Korea exports
China Taiwan Vietnam US Japan Singapore India Others
Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 13 00Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 00 00 18 00Hyundai Cosmo TDP Daesan 00 00 00 50 200 00S Oil No 2 TDP Onsan 00 00 00 200 00 00
00 00 00 250 231 00Producer LocationLG Chem Daesan 00 00 23 23 00 00YNCC No 1 Yeosu 00 00 00 00 50 50Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 00 00 00 08 63 00Lotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 23 00 00S Oil No 2 Onsan 00 00 124 267 00 00SKGC Incheon 67 00 00 00 00 00
67 00 147 321 113 50
Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)
Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)
Source ICIS
Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 00 87Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 27 00 00 00OCI TDI Kunsan 00 06 00 00 00 00GSCX STDP Yeosu 00 00 00 583 82 00Hanwha Total TDP Daesan 00 00 222 278 00 00SKGC TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 00 49 208LG H D A Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38
38 45 288 899 169 333Producer Location Hanwha Total Daesan 00 00 153 191 00 00GSCX Yeosu 00 00 00 174 49 00Lotte Chem Yeosu 00 00 00 47 16 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 00 78 333YNCC Yeosu 00 00 33 17 00 00
00 00 186 428 143 333
Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)
Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)
wwwiciscom 41wwwiciscom 41
NE Asia and SE Asia exports to China rise since H2 2015 on healthy netbacks strong demand
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
USD
tonne
Qty
in 0
00 to
nnes
Others
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
Import parity of domesticcargoesFOB South Korea prices
Increase in selling to China because of healthy netbacks weak TDP spread
Narrow gap results in fewer imports in line with FOB K price support from PX
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 42wwwiciscom 42
Exports from Asia to US market sporadic highly dependent on price gap gasoline blending season and Asia demand
0
10
20
30
40
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250Q
ty in 000 tonnesU
SDto
nne
Price gap (Asia prompt vs US forward) Exports from Asia to US
Open arbitrage opportunities result in increase of Asia exports
Consistent upward trend leads to selling interest
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 43wwwiciscom 43
India TOL imports mainly from SE Asia and Iran
46
23
17
37
4
2014
Singapore Thailand Iran S Korea Europe Others
2015
50
24
9
37
7
Source customs data
Total= 288kt Total= 288kt
wwwiciscom 44wwwiciscom 44
NE Asia TOL supply could outstrip demand in H2 2016 on heavier downstream turnarounds permanent shutdowns
H2 2015 H2 2016
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S Oil Onsan old TDP Onsan 00 42 42 00 00 00
00 42 42 00 00 00FCFC Aroma 2 TDP Mailiao 67 200 00 00 00 00
67 200 00 00 00 00JX Nippon Oil TDP Mizushima A 00 00 75 75 00 00
00 00 75 75 00 0067 242 117 75 00 00
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecLotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 73 25 00KPIC Ulsan 00 00 00 83 00 00S Oil No 1 Onsan 00 146 146 00 00 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 167 333 00OCI Yeosu 00 00 00 33 00 00
00 146 146 357 358 00Mitsui Chemicals Chiba 00 00 00 83 83 00JX Nippon Oil Mizushima A 00 00 117 233 00 00Tonen General Wakayama 00 00 00 69 92 00
00 00 117 385 175 00FCFC Aroma No 2 Mailiao 83 250 00 00 00 00CPC No 6 Kaohsiung 40 00 20 80 20 00CPC No3 Kaoshiung 00 00 00 00 83 55
123 250 20 80 103 55123 396 283 822 636 55
Est TOL consumption loss from KR
Est TOL consumption loss from TW
Est TOL production loss from KR
Total est consumption loss from NE Asia
Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia
CONSUMPTION (mt)
PRODUCTION (mt)
Est TOL consumption loss from JPN
Est TOL production loss from JPN
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUlsan Aromatics Center TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 1000 500 00SKGC TDP Incheon 00 00 00 83 42 00LG Chem H D A (shut since Jan) Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38
38 38 38 1122 580 38Taiyo Oil TDP cut rate only Kikuma 42 07 00 00 00 00MSNC TDI (shut since April) Omuta 65 65 65 65 65 65
107 72 65 65 65 65145 110 103 1187 645 103
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSKGC Incheon 00 00 00 133 67 00
00 00 00 133 67 00Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 00 00 108 108 00 00JFEC Chiba 00 00 14 42 00 00
00 00 122 150 00 00CPC No 7 Kaohsiung 00 00 00 27 108 00CPC No 3 Kaohsiung 110 00 00 00 00 00
110 00 00 27 108 00110 00 122 310 175 00
Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia
PRODUCTION (mt)
CONSUMPTION (mt)
Est TOL consumption loss from KR
Est TOL consumption loss from JPNTotal est consumption loss from NE Asia
Est TOL production loss from KR
Est TOL production loss from JPN
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016
Qty
in to
nnes
Total est consumption loss from NE Asia Total est production loss from NE AsiaSource ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45
Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance
Source ICIS
bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016
bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread
bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption
bull Improvements in TOL blend values
bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading
bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer
bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers
bull Other competitively priced blendstocks
bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL
bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China
TOL supply
TOL demand
Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors
wwwiciscom 46
Drivers of benzene trade flow
wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47
-60-40-200204060
500550600650700750800850900
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea
China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016
020000400006000080000
100000120000140000160000180000200000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Tonn
es
Others
MiddleEastThailand
Malaysia
Taiwan
Japan
SouthKorea
China imports
Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand
Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance
Strong appetite for imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48
Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
Pric
e ($
tonn
e)
Tonn
es
Shore tank inventories
E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity
2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite
Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains
Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49
-80-60-40-20020406080100
500550600650700750800850900950
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15
Tonn
es
OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea
Imports from Asia increase
Imports lower due to higher China prices
S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015
Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates
US imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50
Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600Ja
n-14
Feb-
14M
ar-1
4A
pr-1
4M
ay-1
4Ju
n-14
Jul-1
4A
ug-1
4Se
p-14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Dec
-14
Jan-
15Fe
b-15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
May
-15
Jun-
15Ju
l-15
Aug
-15
Sep-
15O
ct-1
5N
ov-1
5D
ec-1
5Ja
n-16
Feb-
16M
ar-1
6A
pr-1
6
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)Naphtha-Benzene
Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene
$346t $193t $230t
wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51
S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32
Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300
SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15
YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37
2015 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25
S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25
SK Global Chem Incheon 200
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16
OthersTaiwanChinaUS
S Korea exports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52
Outlook increased supply likely to head to China
Source ICIS industry
Company Location BZ Start up period
Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016
Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16
Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos
(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul
Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16
Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16
Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16
Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017
Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex
Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017
Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017
KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017
Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017
Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726
Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322
Product Company Location Capacity(kta)
BZ usage Start up period
SM
Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16
Donghao China 300 240 May-16
Phenol
PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16
Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16
Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17
PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017
Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017
CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17
CPL
Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16
China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16
Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16
MDI
Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017
Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017
Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017
Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972
Consumption within China in 2016 637 655
wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53
Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season
S Korea 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75
BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0
S Korea 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5
KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26
S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13
BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3
Japan 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36
Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12
BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0
Japan 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23
Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24
JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24
BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17
Source ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54
BZ demandBZ supply
bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China
bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ
bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene
bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units
bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher
bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure
bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed
bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand
Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55
Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom
Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom
Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom
Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom
wwwiciscom 56
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wwwiciscom 57
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Test
Downstream prices mostly higher after H1 Feb CNY holiday price gains led by SM
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 1212
SM makersrsquo strong margins supported high ethylene prices
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 1313Source ICIS
Weak margins of most other derivatives capped ethylene price gains towards late Mar
wwwiciscom 1414Source ICIS
Supply crimped by annual cracker turnaround season starting from late FebMar
wwwiciscom 15
Impact of industry consolidation snowballs Asahi Kasei mothballs cracker in 2016
Company Location
C2 capacity losses (lsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream capacity losses(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Cracker closure date
Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Jinshan China 150 Nov 2013
Mitsubishi Chemical Kashima Japan 392 92 LLDPE May 2014
CPC Corp Kaohsiung Taiwan 500 (No 5)SD advanced to Jul 2014 from end 2015
Sumitomo Chemical Chiba Japan 415 425 SM180 PO May 2015
Asahi Kasei Mizushima Japan 500 320 SM Mid Feb 2016
Total C2 capacity losses1957Source Industry
wwwiciscom 16
Production issues curtailed SE Asia supply
Company Location
C2 capacity (lsquo 000 tonnesyr) Operating status
Shell
PulauBukom Singapore Around 960
Shut in late Nov 2015 may restart in Julearly Aug 2016
Chandra AsriCilegonIndonesia 860
Q1 run rates at 50-85 after capacity expansion in Dec 2015
Source Industry
wwwiciscom 1717
Test
Key price drivers Q2-Q4 2016
wwwiciscom 18
Crude oversupply expected to ease in H2 2016
wwwiciscom 1919Source Industry
2016 ethylene production losses from cracker turnarounds largely in Q2-Q3 overall losses down
34 YoY
wwwiciscom 2020Source Industry
Net losses after including +70kta at Asahi-Mitsubishi JV cracker
Output losses higher than 2015 after factoring in Shellrsquos Singapore cracker outage Asahirsquos cracker closure
wwwiciscom 2121Source Industry
Japan becomes structurally tighter
wwwiciscom 2222Source Industry
S Korearsquos exports likely to stabilise at low levels of around 650kt in 2016 after falling for two years
wwwiciscom 2323
End 2015-2016 ethylene capacity expansions in AsiaMideast
Saudi+1800kta
India+3270kta
Iran+2000kta Japan
+70ktaChina+1615kta
Source Industry
Total 9015 kta
Indonesia+260kta
wwwiciscom 2424Source Industry
Cracker expansions concentrated in IndiaMideast mostly integrated
Company Location
C2 capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr) Start-up schedule
Chandra Asri Cilegon Indonesia +260 to 860 Dec 2015Asahi Kasei Mitsubishi Chemical Ethylene Corp Mizushima Japan +70 to 570 1 Apr 2016GAIL Auraiya India 450 400 PE End Feb 2016Brahmaputra Cracker and Polymer Ltd (BCPL) Lepetkata Assam India 220 220 HDPELLDPE End Q1 2016
ONGC Petro Additions (OPaL) Dahej Gujarat India 1100 340 HDPE 720HDPELLDPE Late Q2 2016
Reliance Jamnagar India 1500 750 MEG 550 LLDPE 450 LDPE End 2016
Sadara Chemical Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia 1500 350 LDPE 1080 solution PE Q2mid 2016 at earliest
Petro Rabigh Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia +300 to 1600 150 LDPEEVA 75 EPDM Apr 2016 (cracker only)
Kavian Petrochemical Bushehr Iran 1000Supply to domestic plants via west pipeline H2 20162017
Arvand Petrochemical Gachsaran Iran 1000Feeds own vinyls plants+pipeline customers H2 20162017
Total C27400
wwwiciscom 2525
Expansions in China centred on integrated coal-based projects
Source Industry
Company Location Facility
C2 capacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstreamcapacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr
Start-upschedule
Shenhua Yulin Shenmu Shaanxi MTO 300 300 PE Dec 2015Inner Mongolia ChinaCoal Mengda New Energy amp Chemical Industry
Erdos Inner Mongolia CTO 300
300HDPELLDPE Apr 2016
Shenhua Xinjiang Urumqi Xinjiang CTO 320 320 LDPE Late Q2 2016
Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Golmud Qinghai CTO 160 300 PVC Q3 2016
Fund (Changzhou) Energy amp Chemical Changzhou Jiangsu MTO 165 Q3 2016
Jiangsu Sailboat PetrochemicalLianyungang Jiangsu MTO 370
300 EVALDPE 180 EO 20 MEG Q4 2016
Total C21615 Will supply to Changzhou Dohowrsquos new 300kta SM plant
wwwiciscom 2626Source Industry
More capacity increases at crackers in NESE Asia in 2017
Company Location
C2 capacityadditions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Completion schedule
Korea Petrochemical Industry Co (KPIC)
Onsan South Korea +330 to 800 Mid 2017
Lotte Chemical TitanPasir Gudang Malaysia 90 H1 2017
CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals (CSPC)
Huizhou Guangdong China 1000
150 EO 480 EG400 HDPE 300 LLDPE 700 SM End 20172018
Total C2 1420
wwwiciscom 27Source Industry
Chinarsquos ethylene import demand in 2016 could increase to around 1550-1600kt from 2015rsquos 1516kt
wwwiciscom 2828
Arbitrage amp Mideast cargoes help offset regional supply shortfalls around 500-565kt expected in 2016
Source Industry
Saudi 170-175kt
US 130-140kt
Europe 200-250kt
Projected spot supply excludes term cargoes
wwwiciscom 29
US ethane-based derivative expansions ndash an emerging threat
wwwiciscom 30
Company LocationC2 capacity (rsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream (lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Start-up schedule
Chevron Phillips ChemicalCedar Bayou Texas 1500
500 Bimodal HDPE 500 mLLDPE at Sweeny Mid 2017
Dow Chemical Freeport Texas 1500400 ELITE PE 350 LDPE 320 elastomers 200 EPDM H1 2017
ExxonMobil Chemical Baytown Texas 1500650x2 mLLDPE plus LLDPE at Mont Belvieu H2 2017
Formosa PlasticsPoint Comfort Texas 1590
525 PE unspec 6255 LDPE1000 MEG 20172018
Occidental ChemicalMexichem Ingleside Texas 544 Feed into existing 1050 VCM Q1 2017
SasolLake Charles Louisiana 1500
450 LDPE 450 LLDPE 300EOEG 300 ethoxylatesdetergent alcohols 2018
Total C28134 Total PE 51005
2017-2018 US ethylene amp derivatives projects country to become major PE exporter
Source ICIS Chemical Business
wwwiciscom 31
Chinarsquos PE deficit to continue
wwwiciscom 32wwwiciscom 32
Asia ethylene market to remain tight in 2016
Low-cost US PE exports likely to begin in late 2017 operations of naphtha-based integrated producers in Asia may be impacted
Conclusion
wwwiciscom 33
Asiarsquos toluene and benzene trade flows
wwwiciscom 34
Drivers of Asiarsquos toluene trade flow
wwwiciscom 35wwwiciscom 35
Asiarsquos TOL prices still tracks PX but relationship may weaken on narrower TDP spreads wider toluene-naphtha gap
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
160002
-Jan
-201
422
-Jan
-201
412
-Feb
-201
404
-Mar
-201
424
-Mar
-201
411
-Apr
-201
401
-May
-201
421
-May
-201
410
-Jun
-201
430
-Jun
-201
418
-Jul
-201
407
-Aug
-201
427
-Aug
-201
416
-Sep
-201
406
-Oct
-201
424
-Oct
-201
413
-Nov
-201
403
-Dec
-201
423
-Dec
-201
421
-Jan
-201
510
-Feb
-201
504
-Mar
-201
524
-Mar
-201
513
-Apr
-201
504
-May
-201
522
-May
-201
511
-Jun
-201
501
-Jul
-201
521
-Jul
-201
511
-Aug
-201
531
-Aug
-201
518
-Sep
-201
508
-Oct
-201
528
-Oct
-201
517
-Nov
-201
507
-Dec
-201
504
-Jan
-201
622
-Jan
-201
615
-Feb
-201
604
-Mar
-201
624
-Mar
-201
6
TDP spread (U
SDtonne)
USD
tonn
e
TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Toluene FOB K PX CFR CN
CF 094
CF 095
CF = correlation factor
CF 092
CF= 093
Healthy margins prevailed in 2014 supporting the closer relationship between PX and TOL prices
Margins turned largely negative in 2015 weakening the relationship slightly Strong blend value (BV) of TOL had larger impact on prices
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 36wwwiciscom 36
Wider toluene-naphtha spread since end-2015 increased toluene selling impetus instead of downstream usage allocation
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400Price spread (U
SDtonne)
USD
tonn
e
Toluene-Naphtha spread Naphtha CFR Japan Toluene FOB South Korea
Heavy speculation low Chinese + Indian inventory healthy PX spread led to widened spread in Q1 2016
Price increases supported by start-up of UAC higher usage of TOL for TDP units in addition to summer blending season
Breakeven level
Ave = 230Ave = 170Ave = 170
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 37wwwiciscom 37
TOL heavily placed in blending pool in 2015 capping op rates of downstream TDPs 2016 situation may be reversed
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
USD
tonn
e
Toluene blend value Toluene FOB Korea prices
95-TOL CF= 090
Strong TOL BV in H1 of 2014 results in the price support from gasoline blending strengthening relationship between the two
FOB K prices consistently higher than BV difficult to find demand from blending pool
95-TOL CF= 06895-TOL CF= 090
TOL BV surpasses TOL FOB K making it possible to be placed into blending pool for most of 2015
CF = correlation factorSource ICIS
wwwiciscom 38wwwiciscom 38
Chinese inventories have heavy influence on buying interest Q1 shortage supported sellersrsquo decision to offload more TOL
Ave = 103kt Ave = 903kt Ave = 89kt
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
USD
tonne0
00 to
nnes
east China south China CFR China price Import parity price of CNY cargoes
Strong demand from gasoline blending sector and cargo delays result in 3-year low inventories
Period of strong demand
Previously overbought slow offtake after LNY
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 39
S Korearsquos importexport position for TOL dependent on TDP spreads switch in production strategies in Q1 2016
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
50
100
150
200
25003
-Jan
-201
424
-Jan
-201
414
-Feb
-201
407
-Mar
-201
428
-Mar
-201
418
-Apr
-201
409
-May
-201
430
-May
-201
420
-Jun
-201
411
-Jul
-201
401
-Aug
-201
422
-Aug
-201
412
-Sep
-201
403
-Oct
-201
424
-Oct
-201
414
-Nov
-201
405
-Dec
-201
426
-Dec
-201
423
-Jan
-201
513
-Feb
-201
506
-Mar
-201
527
-Mar
-201
517
-Apr
-201
508
-May
-201
529
-May
-201
519
-Jun
-201
510
-Jul
-201
531
-Jul
-201
521
-Aug
-201
511
-Sep
-201
502
-Oct
-201
523
-Oct
-201
513
-Nov
-201
504
-Dec
-201
525
-Dec
-201
522
-Jan
-201
612
-Feb
-201
604
-Mar
-201
625
-Mar
-201
615
-Apr
-201
6
Qty in lsquo000 tonnes
USD
tonn
e
TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Exports from S Korea Imports to S Korea
Start up of UACrsquos TDP
Slight strategy switch as low Chinese inventories strong naphtha-TOL spread since Q1 leads to stronger TOL selling interest
Overall drop in TDP spreads from mid-2014 results in selling interest switch to net exporter
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 40
Heavier downstream unit turnarounds and production adjustments led to more S Korea-origin exports
H1 2015 H1 2016
0
20
40
60
80
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Qty
in 0
00 to
nnes
South Korea exports
China Taiwan Vietnam US Japan Singapore India Others
Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 13 00Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 00 00 18 00Hyundai Cosmo TDP Daesan 00 00 00 50 200 00S Oil No 2 TDP Onsan 00 00 00 200 00 00
00 00 00 250 231 00Producer LocationLG Chem Daesan 00 00 23 23 00 00YNCC No 1 Yeosu 00 00 00 00 50 50Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 00 00 00 08 63 00Lotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 23 00 00S Oil No 2 Onsan 00 00 124 267 00 00SKGC Incheon 67 00 00 00 00 00
67 00 147 321 113 50
Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)
Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)
Source ICIS
Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 00 87Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 27 00 00 00OCI TDI Kunsan 00 06 00 00 00 00GSCX STDP Yeosu 00 00 00 583 82 00Hanwha Total TDP Daesan 00 00 222 278 00 00SKGC TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 00 49 208LG H D A Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38
38 45 288 899 169 333Producer Location Hanwha Total Daesan 00 00 153 191 00 00GSCX Yeosu 00 00 00 174 49 00Lotte Chem Yeosu 00 00 00 47 16 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 00 78 333YNCC Yeosu 00 00 33 17 00 00
00 00 186 428 143 333
Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)
Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)
wwwiciscom 41wwwiciscom 41
NE Asia and SE Asia exports to China rise since H2 2015 on healthy netbacks strong demand
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
USD
tonne
Qty
in 0
00 to
nnes
Others
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
Import parity of domesticcargoesFOB South Korea prices
Increase in selling to China because of healthy netbacks weak TDP spread
Narrow gap results in fewer imports in line with FOB K price support from PX
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 42wwwiciscom 42
Exports from Asia to US market sporadic highly dependent on price gap gasoline blending season and Asia demand
0
10
20
30
40
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250Q
ty in 000 tonnesU
SDto
nne
Price gap (Asia prompt vs US forward) Exports from Asia to US
Open arbitrage opportunities result in increase of Asia exports
Consistent upward trend leads to selling interest
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 43wwwiciscom 43
India TOL imports mainly from SE Asia and Iran
46
23
17
37
4
2014
Singapore Thailand Iran S Korea Europe Others
2015
50
24
9
37
7
Source customs data
Total= 288kt Total= 288kt
wwwiciscom 44wwwiciscom 44
NE Asia TOL supply could outstrip demand in H2 2016 on heavier downstream turnarounds permanent shutdowns
H2 2015 H2 2016
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S Oil Onsan old TDP Onsan 00 42 42 00 00 00
00 42 42 00 00 00FCFC Aroma 2 TDP Mailiao 67 200 00 00 00 00
67 200 00 00 00 00JX Nippon Oil TDP Mizushima A 00 00 75 75 00 00
00 00 75 75 00 0067 242 117 75 00 00
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecLotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 73 25 00KPIC Ulsan 00 00 00 83 00 00S Oil No 1 Onsan 00 146 146 00 00 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 167 333 00OCI Yeosu 00 00 00 33 00 00
00 146 146 357 358 00Mitsui Chemicals Chiba 00 00 00 83 83 00JX Nippon Oil Mizushima A 00 00 117 233 00 00Tonen General Wakayama 00 00 00 69 92 00
00 00 117 385 175 00FCFC Aroma No 2 Mailiao 83 250 00 00 00 00CPC No 6 Kaohsiung 40 00 20 80 20 00CPC No3 Kaoshiung 00 00 00 00 83 55
123 250 20 80 103 55123 396 283 822 636 55
Est TOL consumption loss from KR
Est TOL consumption loss from TW
Est TOL production loss from KR
Total est consumption loss from NE Asia
Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia
CONSUMPTION (mt)
PRODUCTION (mt)
Est TOL consumption loss from JPN
Est TOL production loss from JPN
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUlsan Aromatics Center TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 1000 500 00SKGC TDP Incheon 00 00 00 83 42 00LG Chem H D A (shut since Jan) Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38
38 38 38 1122 580 38Taiyo Oil TDP cut rate only Kikuma 42 07 00 00 00 00MSNC TDI (shut since April) Omuta 65 65 65 65 65 65
107 72 65 65 65 65145 110 103 1187 645 103
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSKGC Incheon 00 00 00 133 67 00
00 00 00 133 67 00Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 00 00 108 108 00 00JFEC Chiba 00 00 14 42 00 00
00 00 122 150 00 00CPC No 7 Kaohsiung 00 00 00 27 108 00CPC No 3 Kaohsiung 110 00 00 00 00 00
110 00 00 27 108 00110 00 122 310 175 00
Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia
PRODUCTION (mt)
CONSUMPTION (mt)
Est TOL consumption loss from KR
Est TOL consumption loss from JPNTotal est consumption loss from NE Asia
Est TOL production loss from KR
Est TOL production loss from JPN
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016
Qty
in to
nnes
Total est consumption loss from NE Asia Total est production loss from NE AsiaSource ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45
Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance
Source ICIS
bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016
bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread
bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption
bull Improvements in TOL blend values
bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading
bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer
bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers
bull Other competitively priced blendstocks
bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL
bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China
TOL supply
TOL demand
Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors
wwwiciscom 46
Drivers of benzene trade flow
wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47
-60-40-200204060
500550600650700750800850900
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea
China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016
020000400006000080000
100000120000140000160000180000200000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Tonn
es
Others
MiddleEastThailand
Malaysia
Taiwan
Japan
SouthKorea
China imports
Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand
Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance
Strong appetite for imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48
Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
Pric
e ($
tonn
e)
Tonn
es
Shore tank inventories
E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity
2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite
Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains
Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49
-80-60-40-20020406080100
500550600650700750800850900950
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15
Tonn
es
OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea
Imports from Asia increase
Imports lower due to higher China prices
S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015
Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates
US imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50
Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600Ja
n-14
Feb-
14M
ar-1
4A
pr-1
4M
ay-1
4Ju
n-14
Jul-1
4A
ug-1
4Se
p-14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Dec
-14
Jan-
15Fe
b-15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
May
-15
Jun-
15Ju
l-15
Aug
-15
Sep-
15O
ct-1
5N
ov-1
5D
ec-1
5Ja
n-16
Feb-
16M
ar-1
6A
pr-1
6
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)Naphtha-Benzene
Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene
$346t $193t $230t
wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51
S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32
Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300
SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15
YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37
2015 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25
S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25
SK Global Chem Incheon 200
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16
OthersTaiwanChinaUS
S Korea exports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52
Outlook increased supply likely to head to China
Source ICIS industry
Company Location BZ Start up period
Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016
Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16
Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos
(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul
Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16
Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16
Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16
Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017
Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex
Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017
Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017
KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017
Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017
Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726
Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322
Product Company Location Capacity(kta)
BZ usage Start up period
SM
Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16
Donghao China 300 240 May-16
Phenol
PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16
Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16
Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17
PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017
Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017
CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17
CPL
Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16
China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16
Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16
MDI
Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017
Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017
Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017
Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972
Consumption within China in 2016 637 655
wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53
Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season
S Korea 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75
BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0
S Korea 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5
KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26
S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13
BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3
Japan 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36
Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12
BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0
Japan 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23
Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24
JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24
BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17
Source ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54
BZ demandBZ supply
bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China
bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ
bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene
bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units
bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher
bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure
bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed
bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand
Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55
Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom
Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom
Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom
Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom
wwwiciscom 56
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Supply and demand data We give you an end-to-end perspective across the global petrochemical and refinery supply chain enabling you to grasp the local or regional scenario in a global context Data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2030
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- Benzene- Cumene- Paraxylene ndash Orthoxylene- Styrene
wwwiciscom 57
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wwwiciscom 1212
SM makersrsquo strong margins supported high ethylene prices
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 1313Source ICIS
Weak margins of most other derivatives capped ethylene price gains towards late Mar
wwwiciscom 1414Source ICIS
Supply crimped by annual cracker turnaround season starting from late FebMar
wwwiciscom 15
Impact of industry consolidation snowballs Asahi Kasei mothballs cracker in 2016
Company Location
C2 capacity losses (lsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream capacity losses(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Cracker closure date
Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Jinshan China 150 Nov 2013
Mitsubishi Chemical Kashima Japan 392 92 LLDPE May 2014
CPC Corp Kaohsiung Taiwan 500 (No 5)SD advanced to Jul 2014 from end 2015
Sumitomo Chemical Chiba Japan 415 425 SM180 PO May 2015
Asahi Kasei Mizushima Japan 500 320 SM Mid Feb 2016
Total C2 capacity losses1957Source Industry
wwwiciscom 16
Production issues curtailed SE Asia supply
Company Location
C2 capacity (lsquo 000 tonnesyr) Operating status
Shell
PulauBukom Singapore Around 960
Shut in late Nov 2015 may restart in Julearly Aug 2016
Chandra AsriCilegonIndonesia 860
Q1 run rates at 50-85 after capacity expansion in Dec 2015
Source Industry
wwwiciscom 1717
Test
Key price drivers Q2-Q4 2016
wwwiciscom 18
Crude oversupply expected to ease in H2 2016
wwwiciscom 1919Source Industry
2016 ethylene production losses from cracker turnarounds largely in Q2-Q3 overall losses down
34 YoY
wwwiciscom 2020Source Industry
Net losses after including +70kta at Asahi-Mitsubishi JV cracker
Output losses higher than 2015 after factoring in Shellrsquos Singapore cracker outage Asahirsquos cracker closure
wwwiciscom 2121Source Industry
Japan becomes structurally tighter
wwwiciscom 2222Source Industry
S Korearsquos exports likely to stabilise at low levels of around 650kt in 2016 after falling for two years
wwwiciscom 2323
End 2015-2016 ethylene capacity expansions in AsiaMideast
Saudi+1800kta
India+3270kta
Iran+2000kta Japan
+70ktaChina+1615kta
Source Industry
Total 9015 kta
Indonesia+260kta
wwwiciscom 2424Source Industry
Cracker expansions concentrated in IndiaMideast mostly integrated
Company Location
C2 capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr) Start-up schedule
Chandra Asri Cilegon Indonesia +260 to 860 Dec 2015Asahi Kasei Mitsubishi Chemical Ethylene Corp Mizushima Japan +70 to 570 1 Apr 2016GAIL Auraiya India 450 400 PE End Feb 2016Brahmaputra Cracker and Polymer Ltd (BCPL) Lepetkata Assam India 220 220 HDPELLDPE End Q1 2016
ONGC Petro Additions (OPaL) Dahej Gujarat India 1100 340 HDPE 720HDPELLDPE Late Q2 2016
Reliance Jamnagar India 1500 750 MEG 550 LLDPE 450 LDPE End 2016
Sadara Chemical Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia 1500 350 LDPE 1080 solution PE Q2mid 2016 at earliest
Petro Rabigh Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia +300 to 1600 150 LDPEEVA 75 EPDM Apr 2016 (cracker only)
Kavian Petrochemical Bushehr Iran 1000Supply to domestic plants via west pipeline H2 20162017
Arvand Petrochemical Gachsaran Iran 1000Feeds own vinyls plants+pipeline customers H2 20162017
Total C27400
wwwiciscom 2525
Expansions in China centred on integrated coal-based projects
Source Industry
Company Location Facility
C2 capacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstreamcapacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr
Start-upschedule
Shenhua Yulin Shenmu Shaanxi MTO 300 300 PE Dec 2015Inner Mongolia ChinaCoal Mengda New Energy amp Chemical Industry
Erdos Inner Mongolia CTO 300
300HDPELLDPE Apr 2016
Shenhua Xinjiang Urumqi Xinjiang CTO 320 320 LDPE Late Q2 2016
Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Golmud Qinghai CTO 160 300 PVC Q3 2016
Fund (Changzhou) Energy amp Chemical Changzhou Jiangsu MTO 165 Q3 2016
Jiangsu Sailboat PetrochemicalLianyungang Jiangsu MTO 370
300 EVALDPE 180 EO 20 MEG Q4 2016
Total C21615 Will supply to Changzhou Dohowrsquos new 300kta SM plant
wwwiciscom 2626Source Industry
More capacity increases at crackers in NESE Asia in 2017
Company Location
C2 capacityadditions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Completion schedule
Korea Petrochemical Industry Co (KPIC)
Onsan South Korea +330 to 800 Mid 2017
Lotte Chemical TitanPasir Gudang Malaysia 90 H1 2017
CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals (CSPC)
Huizhou Guangdong China 1000
150 EO 480 EG400 HDPE 300 LLDPE 700 SM End 20172018
Total C2 1420
wwwiciscom 27Source Industry
Chinarsquos ethylene import demand in 2016 could increase to around 1550-1600kt from 2015rsquos 1516kt
wwwiciscom 2828
Arbitrage amp Mideast cargoes help offset regional supply shortfalls around 500-565kt expected in 2016
Source Industry
Saudi 170-175kt
US 130-140kt
Europe 200-250kt
Projected spot supply excludes term cargoes
wwwiciscom 29
US ethane-based derivative expansions ndash an emerging threat
wwwiciscom 30
Company LocationC2 capacity (rsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream (lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Start-up schedule
Chevron Phillips ChemicalCedar Bayou Texas 1500
500 Bimodal HDPE 500 mLLDPE at Sweeny Mid 2017
Dow Chemical Freeport Texas 1500400 ELITE PE 350 LDPE 320 elastomers 200 EPDM H1 2017
ExxonMobil Chemical Baytown Texas 1500650x2 mLLDPE plus LLDPE at Mont Belvieu H2 2017
Formosa PlasticsPoint Comfort Texas 1590
525 PE unspec 6255 LDPE1000 MEG 20172018
Occidental ChemicalMexichem Ingleside Texas 544 Feed into existing 1050 VCM Q1 2017
SasolLake Charles Louisiana 1500
450 LDPE 450 LLDPE 300EOEG 300 ethoxylatesdetergent alcohols 2018
Total C28134 Total PE 51005
2017-2018 US ethylene amp derivatives projects country to become major PE exporter
Source ICIS Chemical Business
wwwiciscom 31
Chinarsquos PE deficit to continue
wwwiciscom 32wwwiciscom 32
Asia ethylene market to remain tight in 2016
Low-cost US PE exports likely to begin in late 2017 operations of naphtha-based integrated producers in Asia may be impacted
Conclusion
wwwiciscom 33
Asiarsquos toluene and benzene trade flows
wwwiciscom 34
Drivers of Asiarsquos toluene trade flow
wwwiciscom 35wwwiciscom 35
Asiarsquos TOL prices still tracks PX but relationship may weaken on narrower TDP spreads wider toluene-naphtha gap
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
160002
-Jan
-201
422
-Jan
-201
412
-Feb
-201
404
-Mar
-201
424
-Mar
-201
411
-Apr
-201
401
-May
-201
421
-May
-201
410
-Jun
-201
430
-Jun
-201
418
-Jul
-201
407
-Aug
-201
427
-Aug
-201
416
-Sep
-201
406
-Oct
-201
424
-Oct
-201
413
-Nov
-201
403
-Dec
-201
423
-Dec
-201
421
-Jan
-201
510
-Feb
-201
504
-Mar
-201
524
-Mar
-201
513
-Apr
-201
504
-May
-201
522
-May
-201
511
-Jun
-201
501
-Jul
-201
521
-Jul
-201
511
-Aug
-201
531
-Aug
-201
518
-Sep
-201
508
-Oct
-201
528
-Oct
-201
517
-Nov
-201
507
-Dec
-201
504
-Jan
-201
622
-Jan
-201
615
-Feb
-201
604
-Mar
-201
624
-Mar
-201
6
TDP spread (U
SDtonne)
USD
tonn
e
TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Toluene FOB K PX CFR CN
CF 094
CF 095
CF = correlation factor
CF 092
CF= 093
Healthy margins prevailed in 2014 supporting the closer relationship between PX and TOL prices
Margins turned largely negative in 2015 weakening the relationship slightly Strong blend value (BV) of TOL had larger impact on prices
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 36wwwiciscom 36
Wider toluene-naphtha spread since end-2015 increased toluene selling impetus instead of downstream usage allocation
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400Price spread (U
SDtonne)
USD
tonn
e
Toluene-Naphtha spread Naphtha CFR Japan Toluene FOB South Korea
Heavy speculation low Chinese + Indian inventory healthy PX spread led to widened spread in Q1 2016
Price increases supported by start-up of UAC higher usage of TOL for TDP units in addition to summer blending season
Breakeven level
Ave = 230Ave = 170Ave = 170
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 37wwwiciscom 37
TOL heavily placed in blending pool in 2015 capping op rates of downstream TDPs 2016 situation may be reversed
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
USD
tonn
e
Toluene blend value Toluene FOB Korea prices
95-TOL CF= 090
Strong TOL BV in H1 of 2014 results in the price support from gasoline blending strengthening relationship between the two
FOB K prices consistently higher than BV difficult to find demand from blending pool
95-TOL CF= 06895-TOL CF= 090
TOL BV surpasses TOL FOB K making it possible to be placed into blending pool for most of 2015
CF = correlation factorSource ICIS
wwwiciscom 38wwwiciscom 38
Chinese inventories have heavy influence on buying interest Q1 shortage supported sellersrsquo decision to offload more TOL
Ave = 103kt Ave = 903kt Ave = 89kt
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
USD
tonne0
00 to
nnes
east China south China CFR China price Import parity price of CNY cargoes
Strong demand from gasoline blending sector and cargo delays result in 3-year low inventories
Period of strong demand
Previously overbought slow offtake after LNY
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 39
S Korearsquos importexport position for TOL dependent on TDP spreads switch in production strategies in Q1 2016
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
50
100
150
200
25003
-Jan
-201
424
-Jan
-201
414
-Feb
-201
407
-Mar
-201
428
-Mar
-201
418
-Apr
-201
409
-May
-201
430
-May
-201
420
-Jun
-201
411
-Jul
-201
401
-Aug
-201
422
-Aug
-201
412
-Sep
-201
403
-Oct
-201
424
-Oct
-201
414
-Nov
-201
405
-Dec
-201
426
-Dec
-201
423
-Jan
-201
513
-Feb
-201
506
-Mar
-201
527
-Mar
-201
517
-Apr
-201
508
-May
-201
529
-May
-201
519
-Jun
-201
510
-Jul
-201
531
-Jul
-201
521
-Aug
-201
511
-Sep
-201
502
-Oct
-201
523
-Oct
-201
513
-Nov
-201
504
-Dec
-201
525
-Dec
-201
522
-Jan
-201
612
-Feb
-201
604
-Mar
-201
625
-Mar
-201
615
-Apr
-201
6
Qty in lsquo000 tonnes
USD
tonn
e
TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Exports from S Korea Imports to S Korea
Start up of UACrsquos TDP
Slight strategy switch as low Chinese inventories strong naphtha-TOL spread since Q1 leads to stronger TOL selling interest
Overall drop in TDP spreads from mid-2014 results in selling interest switch to net exporter
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 40
Heavier downstream unit turnarounds and production adjustments led to more S Korea-origin exports
H1 2015 H1 2016
0
20
40
60
80
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Qty
in 0
00 to
nnes
South Korea exports
China Taiwan Vietnam US Japan Singapore India Others
Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 13 00Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 00 00 18 00Hyundai Cosmo TDP Daesan 00 00 00 50 200 00S Oil No 2 TDP Onsan 00 00 00 200 00 00
00 00 00 250 231 00Producer LocationLG Chem Daesan 00 00 23 23 00 00YNCC No 1 Yeosu 00 00 00 00 50 50Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 00 00 00 08 63 00Lotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 23 00 00S Oil No 2 Onsan 00 00 124 267 00 00SKGC Incheon 67 00 00 00 00 00
67 00 147 321 113 50
Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)
Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)
Source ICIS
Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 00 87Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 27 00 00 00OCI TDI Kunsan 00 06 00 00 00 00GSCX STDP Yeosu 00 00 00 583 82 00Hanwha Total TDP Daesan 00 00 222 278 00 00SKGC TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 00 49 208LG H D A Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38
38 45 288 899 169 333Producer Location Hanwha Total Daesan 00 00 153 191 00 00GSCX Yeosu 00 00 00 174 49 00Lotte Chem Yeosu 00 00 00 47 16 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 00 78 333YNCC Yeosu 00 00 33 17 00 00
00 00 186 428 143 333
Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)
Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)
wwwiciscom 41wwwiciscom 41
NE Asia and SE Asia exports to China rise since H2 2015 on healthy netbacks strong demand
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
USD
tonne
Qty
in 0
00 to
nnes
Others
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
Import parity of domesticcargoesFOB South Korea prices
Increase in selling to China because of healthy netbacks weak TDP spread
Narrow gap results in fewer imports in line with FOB K price support from PX
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 42wwwiciscom 42
Exports from Asia to US market sporadic highly dependent on price gap gasoline blending season and Asia demand
0
10
20
30
40
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250Q
ty in 000 tonnesU
SDto
nne
Price gap (Asia prompt vs US forward) Exports from Asia to US
Open arbitrage opportunities result in increase of Asia exports
Consistent upward trend leads to selling interest
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 43wwwiciscom 43
India TOL imports mainly from SE Asia and Iran
46
23
17
37
4
2014
Singapore Thailand Iran S Korea Europe Others
2015
50
24
9
37
7
Source customs data
Total= 288kt Total= 288kt
wwwiciscom 44wwwiciscom 44
NE Asia TOL supply could outstrip demand in H2 2016 on heavier downstream turnarounds permanent shutdowns
H2 2015 H2 2016
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S Oil Onsan old TDP Onsan 00 42 42 00 00 00
00 42 42 00 00 00FCFC Aroma 2 TDP Mailiao 67 200 00 00 00 00
67 200 00 00 00 00JX Nippon Oil TDP Mizushima A 00 00 75 75 00 00
00 00 75 75 00 0067 242 117 75 00 00
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecLotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 73 25 00KPIC Ulsan 00 00 00 83 00 00S Oil No 1 Onsan 00 146 146 00 00 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 167 333 00OCI Yeosu 00 00 00 33 00 00
00 146 146 357 358 00Mitsui Chemicals Chiba 00 00 00 83 83 00JX Nippon Oil Mizushima A 00 00 117 233 00 00Tonen General Wakayama 00 00 00 69 92 00
00 00 117 385 175 00FCFC Aroma No 2 Mailiao 83 250 00 00 00 00CPC No 6 Kaohsiung 40 00 20 80 20 00CPC No3 Kaoshiung 00 00 00 00 83 55
123 250 20 80 103 55123 396 283 822 636 55
Est TOL consumption loss from KR
Est TOL consumption loss from TW
Est TOL production loss from KR
Total est consumption loss from NE Asia
Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia
CONSUMPTION (mt)
PRODUCTION (mt)
Est TOL consumption loss from JPN
Est TOL production loss from JPN
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUlsan Aromatics Center TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 1000 500 00SKGC TDP Incheon 00 00 00 83 42 00LG Chem H D A (shut since Jan) Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38
38 38 38 1122 580 38Taiyo Oil TDP cut rate only Kikuma 42 07 00 00 00 00MSNC TDI (shut since April) Omuta 65 65 65 65 65 65
107 72 65 65 65 65145 110 103 1187 645 103
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSKGC Incheon 00 00 00 133 67 00
00 00 00 133 67 00Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 00 00 108 108 00 00JFEC Chiba 00 00 14 42 00 00
00 00 122 150 00 00CPC No 7 Kaohsiung 00 00 00 27 108 00CPC No 3 Kaohsiung 110 00 00 00 00 00
110 00 00 27 108 00110 00 122 310 175 00
Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia
PRODUCTION (mt)
CONSUMPTION (mt)
Est TOL consumption loss from KR
Est TOL consumption loss from JPNTotal est consumption loss from NE Asia
Est TOL production loss from KR
Est TOL production loss from JPN
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016
Qty
in to
nnes
Total est consumption loss from NE Asia Total est production loss from NE AsiaSource ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45
Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance
Source ICIS
bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016
bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread
bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption
bull Improvements in TOL blend values
bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading
bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer
bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers
bull Other competitively priced blendstocks
bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL
bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China
TOL supply
TOL demand
Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors
wwwiciscom 46
Drivers of benzene trade flow
wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47
-60-40-200204060
500550600650700750800850900
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea
China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016
020000400006000080000
100000120000140000160000180000200000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Tonn
es
Others
MiddleEastThailand
Malaysia
Taiwan
Japan
SouthKorea
China imports
Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand
Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance
Strong appetite for imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48
Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
Pric
e ($
tonn
e)
Tonn
es
Shore tank inventories
E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity
2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite
Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains
Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49
-80-60-40-20020406080100
500550600650700750800850900950
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15
Tonn
es
OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea
Imports from Asia increase
Imports lower due to higher China prices
S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015
Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates
US imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50
Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600Ja
n-14
Feb-
14M
ar-1
4A
pr-1
4M
ay-1
4Ju
n-14
Jul-1
4A
ug-1
4Se
p-14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Dec
-14
Jan-
15Fe
b-15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
May
-15
Jun-
15Ju
l-15
Aug
-15
Sep-
15O
ct-1
5N
ov-1
5D
ec-1
5Ja
n-16
Feb-
16M
ar-1
6A
pr-1
6
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)Naphtha-Benzene
Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene
$346t $193t $230t
wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51
S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32
Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300
SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15
YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37
2015 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25
S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25
SK Global Chem Incheon 200
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16
OthersTaiwanChinaUS
S Korea exports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52
Outlook increased supply likely to head to China
Source ICIS industry
Company Location BZ Start up period
Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016
Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16
Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos
(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul
Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16
Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16
Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16
Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017
Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex
Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017
Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017
KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017
Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017
Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726
Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322
Product Company Location Capacity(kta)
BZ usage Start up period
SM
Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16
Donghao China 300 240 May-16
Phenol
PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16
Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16
Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17
PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017
Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017
CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17
CPL
Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16
China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16
Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16
MDI
Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017
Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017
Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017
Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972
Consumption within China in 2016 637 655
wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53
Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season
S Korea 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75
BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0
S Korea 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5
KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26
S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13
BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3
Japan 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36
Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12
BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0
Japan 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23
Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24
JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24
BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17
Source ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54
BZ demandBZ supply
bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China
bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ
bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene
bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units
bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher
bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure
bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed
bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand
Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55
Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom
Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom
Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom
Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom
wwwiciscom 56
Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets
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wwwiciscom 57
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wwwiciscom 1313Source ICIS
Weak margins of most other derivatives capped ethylene price gains towards late Mar
wwwiciscom 1414Source ICIS
Supply crimped by annual cracker turnaround season starting from late FebMar
wwwiciscom 15
Impact of industry consolidation snowballs Asahi Kasei mothballs cracker in 2016
Company Location
C2 capacity losses (lsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream capacity losses(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Cracker closure date
Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Jinshan China 150 Nov 2013
Mitsubishi Chemical Kashima Japan 392 92 LLDPE May 2014
CPC Corp Kaohsiung Taiwan 500 (No 5)SD advanced to Jul 2014 from end 2015
Sumitomo Chemical Chiba Japan 415 425 SM180 PO May 2015
Asahi Kasei Mizushima Japan 500 320 SM Mid Feb 2016
Total C2 capacity losses1957Source Industry
wwwiciscom 16
Production issues curtailed SE Asia supply
Company Location
C2 capacity (lsquo 000 tonnesyr) Operating status
Shell
PulauBukom Singapore Around 960
Shut in late Nov 2015 may restart in Julearly Aug 2016
Chandra AsriCilegonIndonesia 860
Q1 run rates at 50-85 after capacity expansion in Dec 2015
Source Industry
wwwiciscom 1717
Test
Key price drivers Q2-Q4 2016
wwwiciscom 18
Crude oversupply expected to ease in H2 2016
wwwiciscom 1919Source Industry
2016 ethylene production losses from cracker turnarounds largely in Q2-Q3 overall losses down
34 YoY
wwwiciscom 2020Source Industry
Net losses after including +70kta at Asahi-Mitsubishi JV cracker
Output losses higher than 2015 after factoring in Shellrsquos Singapore cracker outage Asahirsquos cracker closure
wwwiciscom 2121Source Industry
Japan becomes structurally tighter
wwwiciscom 2222Source Industry
S Korearsquos exports likely to stabilise at low levels of around 650kt in 2016 after falling for two years
wwwiciscom 2323
End 2015-2016 ethylene capacity expansions in AsiaMideast
Saudi+1800kta
India+3270kta
Iran+2000kta Japan
+70ktaChina+1615kta
Source Industry
Total 9015 kta
Indonesia+260kta
wwwiciscom 2424Source Industry
Cracker expansions concentrated in IndiaMideast mostly integrated
Company Location
C2 capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr) Start-up schedule
Chandra Asri Cilegon Indonesia +260 to 860 Dec 2015Asahi Kasei Mitsubishi Chemical Ethylene Corp Mizushima Japan +70 to 570 1 Apr 2016GAIL Auraiya India 450 400 PE End Feb 2016Brahmaputra Cracker and Polymer Ltd (BCPL) Lepetkata Assam India 220 220 HDPELLDPE End Q1 2016
ONGC Petro Additions (OPaL) Dahej Gujarat India 1100 340 HDPE 720HDPELLDPE Late Q2 2016
Reliance Jamnagar India 1500 750 MEG 550 LLDPE 450 LDPE End 2016
Sadara Chemical Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia 1500 350 LDPE 1080 solution PE Q2mid 2016 at earliest
Petro Rabigh Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia +300 to 1600 150 LDPEEVA 75 EPDM Apr 2016 (cracker only)
Kavian Petrochemical Bushehr Iran 1000Supply to domestic plants via west pipeline H2 20162017
Arvand Petrochemical Gachsaran Iran 1000Feeds own vinyls plants+pipeline customers H2 20162017
Total C27400
wwwiciscom 2525
Expansions in China centred on integrated coal-based projects
Source Industry
Company Location Facility
C2 capacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstreamcapacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr
Start-upschedule
Shenhua Yulin Shenmu Shaanxi MTO 300 300 PE Dec 2015Inner Mongolia ChinaCoal Mengda New Energy amp Chemical Industry
Erdos Inner Mongolia CTO 300
300HDPELLDPE Apr 2016
Shenhua Xinjiang Urumqi Xinjiang CTO 320 320 LDPE Late Q2 2016
Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Golmud Qinghai CTO 160 300 PVC Q3 2016
Fund (Changzhou) Energy amp Chemical Changzhou Jiangsu MTO 165 Q3 2016
Jiangsu Sailboat PetrochemicalLianyungang Jiangsu MTO 370
300 EVALDPE 180 EO 20 MEG Q4 2016
Total C21615 Will supply to Changzhou Dohowrsquos new 300kta SM plant
wwwiciscom 2626Source Industry
More capacity increases at crackers in NESE Asia in 2017
Company Location
C2 capacityadditions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Completion schedule
Korea Petrochemical Industry Co (KPIC)
Onsan South Korea +330 to 800 Mid 2017
Lotte Chemical TitanPasir Gudang Malaysia 90 H1 2017
CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals (CSPC)
Huizhou Guangdong China 1000
150 EO 480 EG400 HDPE 300 LLDPE 700 SM End 20172018
Total C2 1420
wwwiciscom 27Source Industry
Chinarsquos ethylene import demand in 2016 could increase to around 1550-1600kt from 2015rsquos 1516kt
wwwiciscom 2828
Arbitrage amp Mideast cargoes help offset regional supply shortfalls around 500-565kt expected in 2016
Source Industry
Saudi 170-175kt
US 130-140kt
Europe 200-250kt
Projected spot supply excludes term cargoes
wwwiciscom 29
US ethane-based derivative expansions ndash an emerging threat
wwwiciscom 30
Company LocationC2 capacity (rsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream (lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Start-up schedule
Chevron Phillips ChemicalCedar Bayou Texas 1500
500 Bimodal HDPE 500 mLLDPE at Sweeny Mid 2017
Dow Chemical Freeport Texas 1500400 ELITE PE 350 LDPE 320 elastomers 200 EPDM H1 2017
ExxonMobil Chemical Baytown Texas 1500650x2 mLLDPE plus LLDPE at Mont Belvieu H2 2017
Formosa PlasticsPoint Comfort Texas 1590
525 PE unspec 6255 LDPE1000 MEG 20172018
Occidental ChemicalMexichem Ingleside Texas 544 Feed into existing 1050 VCM Q1 2017
SasolLake Charles Louisiana 1500
450 LDPE 450 LLDPE 300EOEG 300 ethoxylatesdetergent alcohols 2018
Total C28134 Total PE 51005
2017-2018 US ethylene amp derivatives projects country to become major PE exporter
Source ICIS Chemical Business
wwwiciscom 31
Chinarsquos PE deficit to continue
wwwiciscom 32wwwiciscom 32
Asia ethylene market to remain tight in 2016
Low-cost US PE exports likely to begin in late 2017 operations of naphtha-based integrated producers in Asia may be impacted
Conclusion
wwwiciscom 33
Asiarsquos toluene and benzene trade flows
wwwiciscom 34
Drivers of Asiarsquos toluene trade flow
wwwiciscom 35wwwiciscom 35
Asiarsquos TOL prices still tracks PX but relationship may weaken on narrower TDP spreads wider toluene-naphtha gap
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
160002
-Jan
-201
422
-Jan
-201
412
-Feb
-201
404
-Mar
-201
424
-Mar
-201
411
-Apr
-201
401
-May
-201
421
-May
-201
410
-Jun
-201
430
-Jun
-201
418
-Jul
-201
407
-Aug
-201
427
-Aug
-201
416
-Sep
-201
406
-Oct
-201
424
-Oct
-201
413
-Nov
-201
403
-Dec
-201
423
-Dec
-201
421
-Jan
-201
510
-Feb
-201
504
-Mar
-201
524
-Mar
-201
513
-Apr
-201
504
-May
-201
522
-May
-201
511
-Jun
-201
501
-Jul
-201
521
-Jul
-201
511
-Aug
-201
531
-Aug
-201
518
-Sep
-201
508
-Oct
-201
528
-Oct
-201
517
-Nov
-201
507
-Dec
-201
504
-Jan
-201
622
-Jan
-201
615
-Feb
-201
604
-Mar
-201
624
-Mar
-201
6
TDP spread (U
SDtonne)
USD
tonn
e
TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Toluene FOB K PX CFR CN
CF 094
CF 095
CF = correlation factor
CF 092
CF= 093
Healthy margins prevailed in 2014 supporting the closer relationship between PX and TOL prices
Margins turned largely negative in 2015 weakening the relationship slightly Strong blend value (BV) of TOL had larger impact on prices
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 36wwwiciscom 36
Wider toluene-naphtha spread since end-2015 increased toluene selling impetus instead of downstream usage allocation
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400Price spread (U
SDtonne)
USD
tonn
e
Toluene-Naphtha spread Naphtha CFR Japan Toluene FOB South Korea
Heavy speculation low Chinese + Indian inventory healthy PX spread led to widened spread in Q1 2016
Price increases supported by start-up of UAC higher usage of TOL for TDP units in addition to summer blending season
Breakeven level
Ave = 230Ave = 170Ave = 170
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 37wwwiciscom 37
TOL heavily placed in blending pool in 2015 capping op rates of downstream TDPs 2016 situation may be reversed
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
USD
tonn
e
Toluene blend value Toluene FOB Korea prices
95-TOL CF= 090
Strong TOL BV in H1 of 2014 results in the price support from gasoline blending strengthening relationship between the two
FOB K prices consistently higher than BV difficult to find demand from blending pool
95-TOL CF= 06895-TOL CF= 090
TOL BV surpasses TOL FOB K making it possible to be placed into blending pool for most of 2015
CF = correlation factorSource ICIS
wwwiciscom 38wwwiciscom 38
Chinese inventories have heavy influence on buying interest Q1 shortage supported sellersrsquo decision to offload more TOL
Ave = 103kt Ave = 903kt Ave = 89kt
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
USD
tonne0
00 to
nnes
east China south China CFR China price Import parity price of CNY cargoes
Strong demand from gasoline blending sector and cargo delays result in 3-year low inventories
Period of strong demand
Previously overbought slow offtake after LNY
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 39
S Korearsquos importexport position for TOL dependent on TDP spreads switch in production strategies in Q1 2016
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
50
100
150
200
25003
-Jan
-201
424
-Jan
-201
414
-Feb
-201
407
-Mar
-201
428
-Mar
-201
418
-Apr
-201
409
-May
-201
430
-May
-201
420
-Jun
-201
411
-Jul
-201
401
-Aug
-201
422
-Aug
-201
412
-Sep
-201
403
-Oct
-201
424
-Oct
-201
414
-Nov
-201
405
-Dec
-201
426
-Dec
-201
423
-Jan
-201
513
-Feb
-201
506
-Mar
-201
527
-Mar
-201
517
-Apr
-201
508
-May
-201
529
-May
-201
519
-Jun
-201
510
-Jul
-201
531
-Jul
-201
521
-Aug
-201
511
-Sep
-201
502
-Oct
-201
523
-Oct
-201
513
-Nov
-201
504
-Dec
-201
525
-Dec
-201
522
-Jan
-201
612
-Feb
-201
604
-Mar
-201
625
-Mar
-201
615
-Apr
-201
6
Qty in lsquo000 tonnes
USD
tonn
e
TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Exports from S Korea Imports to S Korea
Start up of UACrsquos TDP
Slight strategy switch as low Chinese inventories strong naphtha-TOL spread since Q1 leads to stronger TOL selling interest
Overall drop in TDP spreads from mid-2014 results in selling interest switch to net exporter
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 40
Heavier downstream unit turnarounds and production adjustments led to more S Korea-origin exports
H1 2015 H1 2016
0
20
40
60
80
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Qty
in 0
00 to
nnes
South Korea exports
China Taiwan Vietnam US Japan Singapore India Others
Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 13 00Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 00 00 18 00Hyundai Cosmo TDP Daesan 00 00 00 50 200 00S Oil No 2 TDP Onsan 00 00 00 200 00 00
00 00 00 250 231 00Producer LocationLG Chem Daesan 00 00 23 23 00 00YNCC No 1 Yeosu 00 00 00 00 50 50Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 00 00 00 08 63 00Lotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 23 00 00S Oil No 2 Onsan 00 00 124 267 00 00SKGC Incheon 67 00 00 00 00 00
67 00 147 321 113 50
Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)
Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)
Source ICIS
Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 00 87Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 27 00 00 00OCI TDI Kunsan 00 06 00 00 00 00GSCX STDP Yeosu 00 00 00 583 82 00Hanwha Total TDP Daesan 00 00 222 278 00 00SKGC TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 00 49 208LG H D A Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38
38 45 288 899 169 333Producer Location Hanwha Total Daesan 00 00 153 191 00 00GSCX Yeosu 00 00 00 174 49 00Lotte Chem Yeosu 00 00 00 47 16 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 00 78 333YNCC Yeosu 00 00 33 17 00 00
00 00 186 428 143 333
Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)
Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)
wwwiciscom 41wwwiciscom 41
NE Asia and SE Asia exports to China rise since H2 2015 on healthy netbacks strong demand
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
USD
tonne
Qty
in 0
00 to
nnes
Others
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
Import parity of domesticcargoesFOB South Korea prices
Increase in selling to China because of healthy netbacks weak TDP spread
Narrow gap results in fewer imports in line with FOB K price support from PX
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 42wwwiciscom 42
Exports from Asia to US market sporadic highly dependent on price gap gasoline blending season and Asia demand
0
10
20
30
40
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250Q
ty in 000 tonnesU
SDto
nne
Price gap (Asia prompt vs US forward) Exports from Asia to US
Open arbitrage opportunities result in increase of Asia exports
Consistent upward trend leads to selling interest
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 43wwwiciscom 43
India TOL imports mainly from SE Asia and Iran
46
23
17
37
4
2014
Singapore Thailand Iran S Korea Europe Others
2015
50
24
9
37
7
Source customs data
Total= 288kt Total= 288kt
wwwiciscom 44wwwiciscom 44
NE Asia TOL supply could outstrip demand in H2 2016 on heavier downstream turnarounds permanent shutdowns
H2 2015 H2 2016
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S Oil Onsan old TDP Onsan 00 42 42 00 00 00
00 42 42 00 00 00FCFC Aroma 2 TDP Mailiao 67 200 00 00 00 00
67 200 00 00 00 00JX Nippon Oil TDP Mizushima A 00 00 75 75 00 00
00 00 75 75 00 0067 242 117 75 00 00
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecLotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 73 25 00KPIC Ulsan 00 00 00 83 00 00S Oil No 1 Onsan 00 146 146 00 00 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 167 333 00OCI Yeosu 00 00 00 33 00 00
00 146 146 357 358 00Mitsui Chemicals Chiba 00 00 00 83 83 00JX Nippon Oil Mizushima A 00 00 117 233 00 00Tonen General Wakayama 00 00 00 69 92 00
00 00 117 385 175 00FCFC Aroma No 2 Mailiao 83 250 00 00 00 00CPC No 6 Kaohsiung 40 00 20 80 20 00CPC No3 Kaoshiung 00 00 00 00 83 55
123 250 20 80 103 55123 396 283 822 636 55
Est TOL consumption loss from KR
Est TOL consumption loss from TW
Est TOL production loss from KR
Total est consumption loss from NE Asia
Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia
CONSUMPTION (mt)
PRODUCTION (mt)
Est TOL consumption loss from JPN
Est TOL production loss from JPN
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUlsan Aromatics Center TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 1000 500 00SKGC TDP Incheon 00 00 00 83 42 00LG Chem H D A (shut since Jan) Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38
38 38 38 1122 580 38Taiyo Oil TDP cut rate only Kikuma 42 07 00 00 00 00MSNC TDI (shut since April) Omuta 65 65 65 65 65 65
107 72 65 65 65 65145 110 103 1187 645 103
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSKGC Incheon 00 00 00 133 67 00
00 00 00 133 67 00Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 00 00 108 108 00 00JFEC Chiba 00 00 14 42 00 00
00 00 122 150 00 00CPC No 7 Kaohsiung 00 00 00 27 108 00CPC No 3 Kaohsiung 110 00 00 00 00 00
110 00 00 27 108 00110 00 122 310 175 00
Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia
PRODUCTION (mt)
CONSUMPTION (mt)
Est TOL consumption loss from KR
Est TOL consumption loss from JPNTotal est consumption loss from NE Asia
Est TOL production loss from KR
Est TOL production loss from JPN
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016
Qty
in to
nnes
Total est consumption loss from NE Asia Total est production loss from NE AsiaSource ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45
Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance
Source ICIS
bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016
bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread
bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption
bull Improvements in TOL blend values
bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading
bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer
bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers
bull Other competitively priced blendstocks
bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL
bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China
TOL supply
TOL demand
Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors
wwwiciscom 46
Drivers of benzene trade flow
wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47
-60-40-200204060
500550600650700750800850900
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea
China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016
020000400006000080000
100000120000140000160000180000200000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Tonn
es
Others
MiddleEastThailand
Malaysia
Taiwan
Japan
SouthKorea
China imports
Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand
Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance
Strong appetite for imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48
Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
Pric
e ($
tonn
e)
Tonn
es
Shore tank inventories
E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity
2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite
Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains
Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49
-80-60-40-20020406080100
500550600650700750800850900950
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15
Tonn
es
OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea
Imports from Asia increase
Imports lower due to higher China prices
S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015
Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates
US imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50
Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600Ja
n-14
Feb-
14M
ar-1
4A
pr-1
4M
ay-1
4Ju
n-14
Jul-1
4A
ug-1
4Se
p-14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Dec
-14
Jan-
15Fe
b-15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
May
-15
Jun-
15Ju
l-15
Aug
-15
Sep-
15O
ct-1
5N
ov-1
5D
ec-1
5Ja
n-16
Feb-
16M
ar-1
6A
pr-1
6
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)Naphtha-Benzene
Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene
$346t $193t $230t
wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51
S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32
Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300
SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15
YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37
2015 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25
S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25
SK Global Chem Incheon 200
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16
OthersTaiwanChinaUS
S Korea exports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52
Outlook increased supply likely to head to China
Source ICIS industry
Company Location BZ Start up period
Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016
Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16
Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos
(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul
Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16
Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16
Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16
Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017
Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex
Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017
Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017
KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017
Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017
Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726
Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322
Product Company Location Capacity(kta)
BZ usage Start up period
SM
Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16
Donghao China 300 240 May-16
Phenol
PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16
Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16
Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17
PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017
Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017
CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17
CPL
Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16
China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16
Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16
MDI
Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017
Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017
Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017
Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972
Consumption within China in 2016 637 655
wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53
Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season
S Korea 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75
BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0
S Korea 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5
KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26
S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13
BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3
Japan 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36
Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12
BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0
Japan 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23
Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24
JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24
BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17
Source ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54
BZ demandBZ supply
bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China
bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ
bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene
bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units
bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher
bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure
bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed
bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand
Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55
Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom
Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom
Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom
Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom
wwwiciscom 56
Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets
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wwwiciscom 57
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wwwiciscom 1414Source ICIS
Supply crimped by annual cracker turnaround season starting from late FebMar
wwwiciscom 15
Impact of industry consolidation snowballs Asahi Kasei mothballs cracker in 2016
Company Location
C2 capacity losses (lsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream capacity losses(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Cracker closure date
Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Jinshan China 150 Nov 2013
Mitsubishi Chemical Kashima Japan 392 92 LLDPE May 2014
CPC Corp Kaohsiung Taiwan 500 (No 5)SD advanced to Jul 2014 from end 2015
Sumitomo Chemical Chiba Japan 415 425 SM180 PO May 2015
Asahi Kasei Mizushima Japan 500 320 SM Mid Feb 2016
Total C2 capacity losses1957Source Industry
wwwiciscom 16
Production issues curtailed SE Asia supply
Company Location
C2 capacity (lsquo 000 tonnesyr) Operating status
Shell
PulauBukom Singapore Around 960
Shut in late Nov 2015 may restart in Julearly Aug 2016
Chandra AsriCilegonIndonesia 860
Q1 run rates at 50-85 after capacity expansion in Dec 2015
Source Industry
wwwiciscom 1717
Test
Key price drivers Q2-Q4 2016
wwwiciscom 18
Crude oversupply expected to ease in H2 2016
wwwiciscom 1919Source Industry
2016 ethylene production losses from cracker turnarounds largely in Q2-Q3 overall losses down
34 YoY
wwwiciscom 2020Source Industry
Net losses after including +70kta at Asahi-Mitsubishi JV cracker
Output losses higher than 2015 after factoring in Shellrsquos Singapore cracker outage Asahirsquos cracker closure
wwwiciscom 2121Source Industry
Japan becomes structurally tighter
wwwiciscom 2222Source Industry
S Korearsquos exports likely to stabilise at low levels of around 650kt in 2016 after falling for two years
wwwiciscom 2323
End 2015-2016 ethylene capacity expansions in AsiaMideast
Saudi+1800kta
India+3270kta
Iran+2000kta Japan
+70ktaChina+1615kta
Source Industry
Total 9015 kta
Indonesia+260kta
wwwiciscom 2424Source Industry
Cracker expansions concentrated in IndiaMideast mostly integrated
Company Location
C2 capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr) Start-up schedule
Chandra Asri Cilegon Indonesia +260 to 860 Dec 2015Asahi Kasei Mitsubishi Chemical Ethylene Corp Mizushima Japan +70 to 570 1 Apr 2016GAIL Auraiya India 450 400 PE End Feb 2016Brahmaputra Cracker and Polymer Ltd (BCPL) Lepetkata Assam India 220 220 HDPELLDPE End Q1 2016
ONGC Petro Additions (OPaL) Dahej Gujarat India 1100 340 HDPE 720HDPELLDPE Late Q2 2016
Reliance Jamnagar India 1500 750 MEG 550 LLDPE 450 LDPE End 2016
Sadara Chemical Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia 1500 350 LDPE 1080 solution PE Q2mid 2016 at earliest
Petro Rabigh Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia +300 to 1600 150 LDPEEVA 75 EPDM Apr 2016 (cracker only)
Kavian Petrochemical Bushehr Iran 1000Supply to domestic plants via west pipeline H2 20162017
Arvand Petrochemical Gachsaran Iran 1000Feeds own vinyls plants+pipeline customers H2 20162017
Total C27400
wwwiciscom 2525
Expansions in China centred on integrated coal-based projects
Source Industry
Company Location Facility
C2 capacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstreamcapacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr
Start-upschedule
Shenhua Yulin Shenmu Shaanxi MTO 300 300 PE Dec 2015Inner Mongolia ChinaCoal Mengda New Energy amp Chemical Industry
Erdos Inner Mongolia CTO 300
300HDPELLDPE Apr 2016
Shenhua Xinjiang Urumqi Xinjiang CTO 320 320 LDPE Late Q2 2016
Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Golmud Qinghai CTO 160 300 PVC Q3 2016
Fund (Changzhou) Energy amp Chemical Changzhou Jiangsu MTO 165 Q3 2016
Jiangsu Sailboat PetrochemicalLianyungang Jiangsu MTO 370
300 EVALDPE 180 EO 20 MEG Q4 2016
Total C21615 Will supply to Changzhou Dohowrsquos new 300kta SM plant
wwwiciscom 2626Source Industry
More capacity increases at crackers in NESE Asia in 2017
Company Location
C2 capacityadditions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Completion schedule
Korea Petrochemical Industry Co (KPIC)
Onsan South Korea +330 to 800 Mid 2017
Lotte Chemical TitanPasir Gudang Malaysia 90 H1 2017
CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals (CSPC)
Huizhou Guangdong China 1000
150 EO 480 EG400 HDPE 300 LLDPE 700 SM End 20172018
Total C2 1420
wwwiciscom 27Source Industry
Chinarsquos ethylene import demand in 2016 could increase to around 1550-1600kt from 2015rsquos 1516kt
wwwiciscom 2828
Arbitrage amp Mideast cargoes help offset regional supply shortfalls around 500-565kt expected in 2016
Source Industry
Saudi 170-175kt
US 130-140kt
Europe 200-250kt
Projected spot supply excludes term cargoes
wwwiciscom 29
US ethane-based derivative expansions ndash an emerging threat
wwwiciscom 30
Company LocationC2 capacity (rsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream (lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Start-up schedule
Chevron Phillips ChemicalCedar Bayou Texas 1500
500 Bimodal HDPE 500 mLLDPE at Sweeny Mid 2017
Dow Chemical Freeport Texas 1500400 ELITE PE 350 LDPE 320 elastomers 200 EPDM H1 2017
ExxonMobil Chemical Baytown Texas 1500650x2 mLLDPE plus LLDPE at Mont Belvieu H2 2017
Formosa PlasticsPoint Comfort Texas 1590
525 PE unspec 6255 LDPE1000 MEG 20172018
Occidental ChemicalMexichem Ingleside Texas 544 Feed into existing 1050 VCM Q1 2017
SasolLake Charles Louisiana 1500
450 LDPE 450 LLDPE 300EOEG 300 ethoxylatesdetergent alcohols 2018
Total C28134 Total PE 51005
2017-2018 US ethylene amp derivatives projects country to become major PE exporter
Source ICIS Chemical Business
wwwiciscom 31
Chinarsquos PE deficit to continue
wwwiciscom 32wwwiciscom 32
Asia ethylene market to remain tight in 2016
Low-cost US PE exports likely to begin in late 2017 operations of naphtha-based integrated producers in Asia may be impacted
Conclusion
wwwiciscom 33
Asiarsquos toluene and benzene trade flows
wwwiciscom 34
Drivers of Asiarsquos toluene trade flow
wwwiciscom 35wwwiciscom 35
Asiarsquos TOL prices still tracks PX but relationship may weaken on narrower TDP spreads wider toluene-naphtha gap
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
160002
-Jan
-201
422
-Jan
-201
412
-Feb
-201
404
-Mar
-201
424
-Mar
-201
411
-Apr
-201
401
-May
-201
421
-May
-201
410
-Jun
-201
430
-Jun
-201
418
-Jul
-201
407
-Aug
-201
427
-Aug
-201
416
-Sep
-201
406
-Oct
-201
424
-Oct
-201
413
-Nov
-201
403
-Dec
-201
423
-Dec
-201
421
-Jan
-201
510
-Feb
-201
504
-Mar
-201
524
-Mar
-201
513
-Apr
-201
504
-May
-201
522
-May
-201
511
-Jun
-201
501
-Jul
-201
521
-Jul
-201
511
-Aug
-201
531
-Aug
-201
518
-Sep
-201
508
-Oct
-201
528
-Oct
-201
517
-Nov
-201
507
-Dec
-201
504
-Jan
-201
622
-Jan
-201
615
-Feb
-201
604
-Mar
-201
624
-Mar
-201
6
TDP spread (U
SDtonne)
USD
tonn
e
TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Toluene FOB K PX CFR CN
CF 094
CF 095
CF = correlation factor
CF 092
CF= 093
Healthy margins prevailed in 2014 supporting the closer relationship between PX and TOL prices
Margins turned largely negative in 2015 weakening the relationship slightly Strong blend value (BV) of TOL had larger impact on prices
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 36wwwiciscom 36
Wider toluene-naphtha spread since end-2015 increased toluene selling impetus instead of downstream usage allocation
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400Price spread (U
SDtonne)
USD
tonn
e
Toluene-Naphtha spread Naphtha CFR Japan Toluene FOB South Korea
Heavy speculation low Chinese + Indian inventory healthy PX spread led to widened spread in Q1 2016
Price increases supported by start-up of UAC higher usage of TOL for TDP units in addition to summer blending season
Breakeven level
Ave = 230Ave = 170Ave = 170
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 37wwwiciscom 37
TOL heavily placed in blending pool in 2015 capping op rates of downstream TDPs 2016 situation may be reversed
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
USD
tonn
e
Toluene blend value Toluene FOB Korea prices
95-TOL CF= 090
Strong TOL BV in H1 of 2014 results in the price support from gasoline blending strengthening relationship between the two
FOB K prices consistently higher than BV difficult to find demand from blending pool
95-TOL CF= 06895-TOL CF= 090
TOL BV surpasses TOL FOB K making it possible to be placed into blending pool for most of 2015
CF = correlation factorSource ICIS
wwwiciscom 38wwwiciscom 38
Chinese inventories have heavy influence on buying interest Q1 shortage supported sellersrsquo decision to offload more TOL
Ave = 103kt Ave = 903kt Ave = 89kt
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
USD
tonne0
00 to
nnes
east China south China CFR China price Import parity price of CNY cargoes
Strong demand from gasoline blending sector and cargo delays result in 3-year low inventories
Period of strong demand
Previously overbought slow offtake after LNY
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 39
S Korearsquos importexport position for TOL dependent on TDP spreads switch in production strategies in Q1 2016
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
50
100
150
200
25003
-Jan
-201
424
-Jan
-201
414
-Feb
-201
407
-Mar
-201
428
-Mar
-201
418
-Apr
-201
409
-May
-201
430
-May
-201
420
-Jun
-201
411
-Jul
-201
401
-Aug
-201
422
-Aug
-201
412
-Sep
-201
403
-Oct
-201
424
-Oct
-201
414
-Nov
-201
405
-Dec
-201
426
-Dec
-201
423
-Jan
-201
513
-Feb
-201
506
-Mar
-201
527
-Mar
-201
517
-Apr
-201
508
-May
-201
529
-May
-201
519
-Jun
-201
510
-Jul
-201
531
-Jul
-201
521
-Aug
-201
511
-Sep
-201
502
-Oct
-201
523
-Oct
-201
513
-Nov
-201
504
-Dec
-201
525
-Dec
-201
522
-Jan
-201
612
-Feb
-201
604
-Mar
-201
625
-Mar
-201
615
-Apr
-201
6
Qty in lsquo000 tonnes
USD
tonn
e
TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Exports from S Korea Imports to S Korea
Start up of UACrsquos TDP
Slight strategy switch as low Chinese inventories strong naphtha-TOL spread since Q1 leads to stronger TOL selling interest
Overall drop in TDP spreads from mid-2014 results in selling interest switch to net exporter
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 40
Heavier downstream unit turnarounds and production adjustments led to more S Korea-origin exports
H1 2015 H1 2016
0
20
40
60
80
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Qty
in 0
00 to
nnes
South Korea exports
China Taiwan Vietnam US Japan Singapore India Others
Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 13 00Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 00 00 18 00Hyundai Cosmo TDP Daesan 00 00 00 50 200 00S Oil No 2 TDP Onsan 00 00 00 200 00 00
00 00 00 250 231 00Producer LocationLG Chem Daesan 00 00 23 23 00 00YNCC No 1 Yeosu 00 00 00 00 50 50Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 00 00 00 08 63 00Lotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 23 00 00S Oil No 2 Onsan 00 00 124 267 00 00SKGC Incheon 67 00 00 00 00 00
67 00 147 321 113 50
Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)
Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)
Source ICIS
Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 00 87Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 27 00 00 00OCI TDI Kunsan 00 06 00 00 00 00GSCX STDP Yeosu 00 00 00 583 82 00Hanwha Total TDP Daesan 00 00 222 278 00 00SKGC TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 00 49 208LG H D A Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38
38 45 288 899 169 333Producer Location Hanwha Total Daesan 00 00 153 191 00 00GSCX Yeosu 00 00 00 174 49 00Lotte Chem Yeosu 00 00 00 47 16 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 00 78 333YNCC Yeosu 00 00 33 17 00 00
00 00 186 428 143 333
Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)
Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)
wwwiciscom 41wwwiciscom 41
NE Asia and SE Asia exports to China rise since H2 2015 on healthy netbacks strong demand
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
USD
tonne
Qty
in 0
00 to
nnes
Others
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
Import parity of domesticcargoesFOB South Korea prices
Increase in selling to China because of healthy netbacks weak TDP spread
Narrow gap results in fewer imports in line with FOB K price support from PX
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 42wwwiciscom 42
Exports from Asia to US market sporadic highly dependent on price gap gasoline blending season and Asia demand
0
10
20
30
40
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250Q
ty in 000 tonnesU
SDto
nne
Price gap (Asia prompt vs US forward) Exports from Asia to US
Open arbitrage opportunities result in increase of Asia exports
Consistent upward trend leads to selling interest
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 43wwwiciscom 43
India TOL imports mainly from SE Asia and Iran
46
23
17
37
4
2014
Singapore Thailand Iran S Korea Europe Others
2015
50
24
9
37
7
Source customs data
Total= 288kt Total= 288kt
wwwiciscom 44wwwiciscom 44
NE Asia TOL supply could outstrip demand in H2 2016 on heavier downstream turnarounds permanent shutdowns
H2 2015 H2 2016
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S Oil Onsan old TDP Onsan 00 42 42 00 00 00
00 42 42 00 00 00FCFC Aroma 2 TDP Mailiao 67 200 00 00 00 00
67 200 00 00 00 00JX Nippon Oil TDP Mizushima A 00 00 75 75 00 00
00 00 75 75 00 0067 242 117 75 00 00
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecLotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 73 25 00KPIC Ulsan 00 00 00 83 00 00S Oil No 1 Onsan 00 146 146 00 00 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 167 333 00OCI Yeosu 00 00 00 33 00 00
00 146 146 357 358 00Mitsui Chemicals Chiba 00 00 00 83 83 00JX Nippon Oil Mizushima A 00 00 117 233 00 00Tonen General Wakayama 00 00 00 69 92 00
00 00 117 385 175 00FCFC Aroma No 2 Mailiao 83 250 00 00 00 00CPC No 6 Kaohsiung 40 00 20 80 20 00CPC No3 Kaoshiung 00 00 00 00 83 55
123 250 20 80 103 55123 396 283 822 636 55
Est TOL consumption loss from KR
Est TOL consumption loss from TW
Est TOL production loss from KR
Total est consumption loss from NE Asia
Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia
CONSUMPTION (mt)
PRODUCTION (mt)
Est TOL consumption loss from JPN
Est TOL production loss from JPN
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUlsan Aromatics Center TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 1000 500 00SKGC TDP Incheon 00 00 00 83 42 00LG Chem H D A (shut since Jan) Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38
38 38 38 1122 580 38Taiyo Oil TDP cut rate only Kikuma 42 07 00 00 00 00MSNC TDI (shut since April) Omuta 65 65 65 65 65 65
107 72 65 65 65 65145 110 103 1187 645 103
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSKGC Incheon 00 00 00 133 67 00
00 00 00 133 67 00Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 00 00 108 108 00 00JFEC Chiba 00 00 14 42 00 00
00 00 122 150 00 00CPC No 7 Kaohsiung 00 00 00 27 108 00CPC No 3 Kaohsiung 110 00 00 00 00 00
110 00 00 27 108 00110 00 122 310 175 00
Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia
PRODUCTION (mt)
CONSUMPTION (mt)
Est TOL consumption loss from KR
Est TOL consumption loss from JPNTotal est consumption loss from NE Asia
Est TOL production loss from KR
Est TOL production loss from JPN
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016
Qty
in to
nnes
Total est consumption loss from NE Asia Total est production loss from NE AsiaSource ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45
Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance
Source ICIS
bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016
bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread
bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption
bull Improvements in TOL blend values
bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading
bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer
bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers
bull Other competitively priced blendstocks
bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL
bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China
TOL supply
TOL demand
Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors
wwwiciscom 46
Drivers of benzene trade flow
wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47
-60-40-200204060
500550600650700750800850900
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea
China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016
020000400006000080000
100000120000140000160000180000200000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Tonn
es
Others
MiddleEastThailand
Malaysia
Taiwan
Japan
SouthKorea
China imports
Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand
Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance
Strong appetite for imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48
Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
Pric
e ($
tonn
e)
Tonn
es
Shore tank inventories
E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity
2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite
Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains
Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49
-80-60-40-20020406080100
500550600650700750800850900950
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15
Tonn
es
OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea
Imports from Asia increase
Imports lower due to higher China prices
S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015
Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates
US imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50
Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600Ja
n-14
Feb-
14M
ar-1
4A
pr-1
4M
ay-1
4Ju
n-14
Jul-1
4A
ug-1
4Se
p-14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Dec
-14
Jan-
15Fe
b-15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
May
-15
Jun-
15Ju
l-15
Aug
-15
Sep-
15O
ct-1
5N
ov-1
5D
ec-1
5Ja
n-16
Feb-
16M
ar-1
6A
pr-1
6
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)Naphtha-Benzene
Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene
$346t $193t $230t
wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51
S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32
Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300
SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15
YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37
2015 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25
S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25
SK Global Chem Incheon 200
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16
OthersTaiwanChinaUS
S Korea exports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52
Outlook increased supply likely to head to China
Source ICIS industry
Company Location BZ Start up period
Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016
Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16
Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos
(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul
Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16
Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16
Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16
Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017
Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex
Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017
Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017
KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017
Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017
Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726
Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322
Product Company Location Capacity(kta)
BZ usage Start up period
SM
Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16
Donghao China 300 240 May-16
Phenol
PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16
Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16
Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17
PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017
Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017
CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17
CPL
Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16
China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16
Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16
MDI
Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017
Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017
Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017
Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972
Consumption within China in 2016 637 655
wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53
Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season
S Korea 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75
BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0
S Korea 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5
KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26
S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13
BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3
Japan 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36
Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12
BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0
Japan 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23
Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24
JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24
BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17
Source ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54
BZ demandBZ supply
bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China
bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ
bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene
bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units
bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher
bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure
bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed
bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand
Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55
Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom
Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom
Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom
Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom
wwwiciscom 56
Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets
Pricing information
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Request your free sample report gtgt
We produce reliable price assessments and analyses covering Asian aromatics and olefins markets including price histories and a 12-month rolling price forecast enabling you to understand price drivers and settle your contract prices more confidently Our pricing coverage includes
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Real-time news serviceBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news including updates on plant capacities output and shutdowns
In-depth analysis of ChinaThe comprehensive studies on olefins and aromatics provide credible data and analysis to support your annual sales and strategy planning by giving you all of the following
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wwwiciscom 57
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Market Alerts
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Formula Builder
Request a trial
wwwiciscom 15
Impact of industry consolidation snowballs Asahi Kasei mothballs cracker in 2016
Company Location
C2 capacity losses (lsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream capacity losses(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Cracker closure date
Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Jinshan China 150 Nov 2013
Mitsubishi Chemical Kashima Japan 392 92 LLDPE May 2014
CPC Corp Kaohsiung Taiwan 500 (No 5)SD advanced to Jul 2014 from end 2015
Sumitomo Chemical Chiba Japan 415 425 SM180 PO May 2015
Asahi Kasei Mizushima Japan 500 320 SM Mid Feb 2016
Total C2 capacity losses1957Source Industry
wwwiciscom 16
Production issues curtailed SE Asia supply
Company Location
C2 capacity (lsquo 000 tonnesyr) Operating status
Shell
PulauBukom Singapore Around 960
Shut in late Nov 2015 may restart in Julearly Aug 2016
Chandra AsriCilegonIndonesia 860
Q1 run rates at 50-85 after capacity expansion in Dec 2015
Source Industry
wwwiciscom 1717
Test
Key price drivers Q2-Q4 2016
wwwiciscom 18
Crude oversupply expected to ease in H2 2016
wwwiciscom 1919Source Industry
2016 ethylene production losses from cracker turnarounds largely in Q2-Q3 overall losses down
34 YoY
wwwiciscom 2020Source Industry
Net losses after including +70kta at Asahi-Mitsubishi JV cracker
Output losses higher than 2015 after factoring in Shellrsquos Singapore cracker outage Asahirsquos cracker closure
wwwiciscom 2121Source Industry
Japan becomes structurally tighter
wwwiciscom 2222Source Industry
S Korearsquos exports likely to stabilise at low levels of around 650kt in 2016 after falling for two years
wwwiciscom 2323
End 2015-2016 ethylene capacity expansions in AsiaMideast
Saudi+1800kta
India+3270kta
Iran+2000kta Japan
+70ktaChina+1615kta
Source Industry
Total 9015 kta
Indonesia+260kta
wwwiciscom 2424Source Industry
Cracker expansions concentrated in IndiaMideast mostly integrated
Company Location
C2 capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr) Start-up schedule
Chandra Asri Cilegon Indonesia +260 to 860 Dec 2015Asahi Kasei Mitsubishi Chemical Ethylene Corp Mizushima Japan +70 to 570 1 Apr 2016GAIL Auraiya India 450 400 PE End Feb 2016Brahmaputra Cracker and Polymer Ltd (BCPL) Lepetkata Assam India 220 220 HDPELLDPE End Q1 2016
ONGC Petro Additions (OPaL) Dahej Gujarat India 1100 340 HDPE 720HDPELLDPE Late Q2 2016
Reliance Jamnagar India 1500 750 MEG 550 LLDPE 450 LDPE End 2016
Sadara Chemical Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia 1500 350 LDPE 1080 solution PE Q2mid 2016 at earliest
Petro Rabigh Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia +300 to 1600 150 LDPEEVA 75 EPDM Apr 2016 (cracker only)
Kavian Petrochemical Bushehr Iran 1000Supply to domestic plants via west pipeline H2 20162017
Arvand Petrochemical Gachsaran Iran 1000Feeds own vinyls plants+pipeline customers H2 20162017
Total C27400
wwwiciscom 2525
Expansions in China centred on integrated coal-based projects
Source Industry
Company Location Facility
C2 capacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstreamcapacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr
Start-upschedule
Shenhua Yulin Shenmu Shaanxi MTO 300 300 PE Dec 2015Inner Mongolia ChinaCoal Mengda New Energy amp Chemical Industry
Erdos Inner Mongolia CTO 300
300HDPELLDPE Apr 2016
Shenhua Xinjiang Urumqi Xinjiang CTO 320 320 LDPE Late Q2 2016
Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Golmud Qinghai CTO 160 300 PVC Q3 2016
Fund (Changzhou) Energy amp Chemical Changzhou Jiangsu MTO 165 Q3 2016
Jiangsu Sailboat PetrochemicalLianyungang Jiangsu MTO 370
300 EVALDPE 180 EO 20 MEG Q4 2016
Total C21615 Will supply to Changzhou Dohowrsquos new 300kta SM plant
wwwiciscom 2626Source Industry
More capacity increases at crackers in NESE Asia in 2017
Company Location
C2 capacityadditions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Completion schedule
Korea Petrochemical Industry Co (KPIC)
Onsan South Korea +330 to 800 Mid 2017
Lotte Chemical TitanPasir Gudang Malaysia 90 H1 2017
CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals (CSPC)
Huizhou Guangdong China 1000
150 EO 480 EG400 HDPE 300 LLDPE 700 SM End 20172018
Total C2 1420
wwwiciscom 27Source Industry
Chinarsquos ethylene import demand in 2016 could increase to around 1550-1600kt from 2015rsquos 1516kt
wwwiciscom 2828
Arbitrage amp Mideast cargoes help offset regional supply shortfalls around 500-565kt expected in 2016
Source Industry
Saudi 170-175kt
US 130-140kt
Europe 200-250kt
Projected spot supply excludes term cargoes
wwwiciscom 29
US ethane-based derivative expansions ndash an emerging threat
wwwiciscom 30
Company LocationC2 capacity (rsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream (lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Start-up schedule
Chevron Phillips ChemicalCedar Bayou Texas 1500
500 Bimodal HDPE 500 mLLDPE at Sweeny Mid 2017
Dow Chemical Freeport Texas 1500400 ELITE PE 350 LDPE 320 elastomers 200 EPDM H1 2017
ExxonMobil Chemical Baytown Texas 1500650x2 mLLDPE plus LLDPE at Mont Belvieu H2 2017
Formosa PlasticsPoint Comfort Texas 1590
525 PE unspec 6255 LDPE1000 MEG 20172018
Occidental ChemicalMexichem Ingleside Texas 544 Feed into existing 1050 VCM Q1 2017
SasolLake Charles Louisiana 1500
450 LDPE 450 LLDPE 300EOEG 300 ethoxylatesdetergent alcohols 2018
Total C28134 Total PE 51005
2017-2018 US ethylene amp derivatives projects country to become major PE exporter
Source ICIS Chemical Business
wwwiciscom 31
Chinarsquos PE deficit to continue
wwwiciscom 32wwwiciscom 32
Asia ethylene market to remain tight in 2016
Low-cost US PE exports likely to begin in late 2017 operations of naphtha-based integrated producers in Asia may be impacted
Conclusion
wwwiciscom 33
Asiarsquos toluene and benzene trade flows
wwwiciscom 34
Drivers of Asiarsquos toluene trade flow
wwwiciscom 35wwwiciscom 35
Asiarsquos TOL prices still tracks PX but relationship may weaken on narrower TDP spreads wider toluene-naphtha gap
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
160002
-Jan
-201
422
-Jan
-201
412
-Feb
-201
404
-Mar
-201
424
-Mar
-201
411
-Apr
-201
401
-May
-201
421
-May
-201
410
-Jun
-201
430
-Jun
-201
418
-Jul
-201
407
-Aug
-201
427
-Aug
-201
416
-Sep
-201
406
-Oct
-201
424
-Oct
-201
413
-Nov
-201
403
-Dec
-201
423
-Dec
-201
421
-Jan
-201
510
-Feb
-201
504
-Mar
-201
524
-Mar
-201
513
-Apr
-201
504
-May
-201
522
-May
-201
511
-Jun
-201
501
-Jul
-201
521
-Jul
-201
511
-Aug
-201
531
-Aug
-201
518
-Sep
-201
508
-Oct
-201
528
-Oct
-201
517
-Nov
-201
507
-Dec
-201
504
-Jan
-201
622
-Jan
-201
615
-Feb
-201
604
-Mar
-201
624
-Mar
-201
6
TDP spread (U
SDtonne)
USD
tonn
e
TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Toluene FOB K PX CFR CN
CF 094
CF 095
CF = correlation factor
CF 092
CF= 093
Healthy margins prevailed in 2014 supporting the closer relationship between PX and TOL prices
Margins turned largely negative in 2015 weakening the relationship slightly Strong blend value (BV) of TOL had larger impact on prices
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 36wwwiciscom 36
Wider toluene-naphtha spread since end-2015 increased toluene selling impetus instead of downstream usage allocation
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400Price spread (U
SDtonne)
USD
tonn
e
Toluene-Naphtha spread Naphtha CFR Japan Toluene FOB South Korea
Heavy speculation low Chinese + Indian inventory healthy PX spread led to widened spread in Q1 2016
Price increases supported by start-up of UAC higher usage of TOL for TDP units in addition to summer blending season
Breakeven level
Ave = 230Ave = 170Ave = 170
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 37wwwiciscom 37
TOL heavily placed in blending pool in 2015 capping op rates of downstream TDPs 2016 situation may be reversed
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
USD
tonn
e
Toluene blend value Toluene FOB Korea prices
95-TOL CF= 090
Strong TOL BV in H1 of 2014 results in the price support from gasoline blending strengthening relationship between the two
FOB K prices consistently higher than BV difficult to find demand from blending pool
95-TOL CF= 06895-TOL CF= 090
TOL BV surpasses TOL FOB K making it possible to be placed into blending pool for most of 2015
CF = correlation factorSource ICIS
wwwiciscom 38wwwiciscom 38
Chinese inventories have heavy influence on buying interest Q1 shortage supported sellersrsquo decision to offload more TOL
Ave = 103kt Ave = 903kt Ave = 89kt
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
USD
tonne0
00 to
nnes
east China south China CFR China price Import parity price of CNY cargoes
Strong demand from gasoline blending sector and cargo delays result in 3-year low inventories
Period of strong demand
Previously overbought slow offtake after LNY
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 39
S Korearsquos importexport position for TOL dependent on TDP spreads switch in production strategies in Q1 2016
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
50
100
150
200
25003
-Jan
-201
424
-Jan
-201
414
-Feb
-201
407
-Mar
-201
428
-Mar
-201
418
-Apr
-201
409
-May
-201
430
-May
-201
420
-Jun
-201
411
-Jul
-201
401
-Aug
-201
422
-Aug
-201
412
-Sep
-201
403
-Oct
-201
424
-Oct
-201
414
-Nov
-201
405
-Dec
-201
426
-Dec
-201
423
-Jan
-201
513
-Feb
-201
506
-Mar
-201
527
-Mar
-201
517
-Apr
-201
508
-May
-201
529
-May
-201
519
-Jun
-201
510
-Jul
-201
531
-Jul
-201
521
-Aug
-201
511
-Sep
-201
502
-Oct
-201
523
-Oct
-201
513
-Nov
-201
504
-Dec
-201
525
-Dec
-201
522
-Jan
-201
612
-Feb
-201
604
-Mar
-201
625
-Mar
-201
615
-Apr
-201
6
Qty in lsquo000 tonnes
USD
tonn
e
TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Exports from S Korea Imports to S Korea
Start up of UACrsquos TDP
Slight strategy switch as low Chinese inventories strong naphtha-TOL spread since Q1 leads to stronger TOL selling interest
Overall drop in TDP spreads from mid-2014 results in selling interest switch to net exporter
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 40
Heavier downstream unit turnarounds and production adjustments led to more S Korea-origin exports
H1 2015 H1 2016
0
20
40
60
80
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Qty
in 0
00 to
nnes
South Korea exports
China Taiwan Vietnam US Japan Singapore India Others
Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 13 00Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 00 00 18 00Hyundai Cosmo TDP Daesan 00 00 00 50 200 00S Oil No 2 TDP Onsan 00 00 00 200 00 00
00 00 00 250 231 00Producer LocationLG Chem Daesan 00 00 23 23 00 00YNCC No 1 Yeosu 00 00 00 00 50 50Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 00 00 00 08 63 00Lotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 23 00 00S Oil No 2 Onsan 00 00 124 267 00 00SKGC Incheon 67 00 00 00 00 00
67 00 147 321 113 50
Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)
Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)
Source ICIS
Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 00 87Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 27 00 00 00OCI TDI Kunsan 00 06 00 00 00 00GSCX STDP Yeosu 00 00 00 583 82 00Hanwha Total TDP Daesan 00 00 222 278 00 00SKGC TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 00 49 208LG H D A Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38
38 45 288 899 169 333Producer Location Hanwha Total Daesan 00 00 153 191 00 00GSCX Yeosu 00 00 00 174 49 00Lotte Chem Yeosu 00 00 00 47 16 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 00 78 333YNCC Yeosu 00 00 33 17 00 00
00 00 186 428 143 333
Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)
Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)
wwwiciscom 41wwwiciscom 41
NE Asia and SE Asia exports to China rise since H2 2015 on healthy netbacks strong demand
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
USD
tonne
Qty
in 0
00 to
nnes
Others
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
Import parity of domesticcargoesFOB South Korea prices
Increase in selling to China because of healthy netbacks weak TDP spread
Narrow gap results in fewer imports in line with FOB K price support from PX
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 42wwwiciscom 42
Exports from Asia to US market sporadic highly dependent on price gap gasoline blending season and Asia demand
0
10
20
30
40
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250Q
ty in 000 tonnesU
SDto
nne
Price gap (Asia prompt vs US forward) Exports from Asia to US
Open arbitrage opportunities result in increase of Asia exports
Consistent upward trend leads to selling interest
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 43wwwiciscom 43
India TOL imports mainly from SE Asia and Iran
46
23
17
37
4
2014
Singapore Thailand Iran S Korea Europe Others
2015
50
24
9
37
7
Source customs data
Total= 288kt Total= 288kt
wwwiciscom 44wwwiciscom 44
NE Asia TOL supply could outstrip demand in H2 2016 on heavier downstream turnarounds permanent shutdowns
H2 2015 H2 2016
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S Oil Onsan old TDP Onsan 00 42 42 00 00 00
00 42 42 00 00 00FCFC Aroma 2 TDP Mailiao 67 200 00 00 00 00
67 200 00 00 00 00JX Nippon Oil TDP Mizushima A 00 00 75 75 00 00
00 00 75 75 00 0067 242 117 75 00 00
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecLotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 73 25 00KPIC Ulsan 00 00 00 83 00 00S Oil No 1 Onsan 00 146 146 00 00 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 167 333 00OCI Yeosu 00 00 00 33 00 00
00 146 146 357 358 00Mitsui Chemicals Chiba 00 00 00 83 83 00JX Nippon Oil Mizushima A 00 00 117 233 00 00Tonen General Wakayama 00 00 00 69 92 00
00 00 117 385 175 00FCFC Aroma No 2 Mailiao 83 250 00 00 00 00CPC No 6 Kaohsiung 40 00 20 80 20 00CPC No3 Kaoshiung 00 00 00 00 83 55
123 250 20 80 103 55123 396 283 822 636 55
Est TOL consumption loss from KR
Est TOL consumption loss from TW
Est TOL production loss from KR
Total est consumption loss from NE Asia
Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia
CONSUMPTION (mt)
PRODUCTION (mt)
Est TOL consumption loss from JPN
Est TOL production loss from JPN
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUlsan Aromatics Center TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 1000 500 00SKGC TDP Incheon 00 00 00 83 42 00LG Chem H D A (shut since Jan) Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38
38 38 38 1122 580 38Taiyo Oil TDP cut rate only Kikuma 42 07 00 00 00 00MSNC TDI (shut since April) Omuta 65 65 65 65 65 65
107 72 65 65 65 65145 110 103 1187 645 103
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSKGC Incheon 00 00 00 133 67 00
00 00 00 133 67 00Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 00 00 108 108 00 00JFEC Chiba 00 00 14 42 00 00
00 00 122 150 00 00CPC No 7 Kaohsiung 00 00 00 27 108 00CPC No 3 Kaohsiung 110 00 00 00 00 00
110 00 00 27 108 00110 00 122 310 175 00
Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia
PRODUCTION (mt)
CONSUMPTION (mt)
Est TOL consumption loss from KR
Est TOL consumption loss from JPNTotal est consumption loss from NE Asia
Est TOL production loss from KR
Est TOL production loss from JPN
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016
Qty
in to
nnes
Total est consumption loss from NE Asia Total est production loss from NE AsiaSource ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45
Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance
Source ICIS
bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016
bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread
bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption
bull Improvements in TOL blend values
bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading
bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer
bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers
bull Other competitively priced blendstocks
bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL
bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China
TOL supply
TOL demand
Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors
wwwiciscom 46
Drivers of benzene trade flow
wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47
-60-40-200204060
500550600650700750800850900
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea
China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016
020000400006000080000
100000120000140000160000180000200000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Tonn
es
Others
MiddleEastThailand
Malaysia
Taiwan
Japan
SouthKorea
China imports
Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand
Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance
Strong appetite for imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48
Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
Pric
e ($
tonn
e)
Tonn
es
Shore tank inventories
E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity
2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite
Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains
Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49
-80-60-40-20020406080100
500550600650700750800850900950
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15
Tonn
es
OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea
Imports from Asia increase
Imports lower due to higher China prices
S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015
Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates
US imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50
Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600Ja
n-14
Feb-
14M
ar-1
4A
pr-1
4M
ay-1
4Ju
n-14
Jul-1
4A
ug-1
4Se
p-14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Dec
-14
Jan-
15Fe
b-15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
May
-15
Jun-
15Ju
l-15
Aug
-15
Sep-
15O
ct-1
5N
ov-1
5D
ec-1
5Ja
n-16
Feb-
16M
ar-1
6A
pr-1
6
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)Naphtha-Benzene
Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene
$346t $193t $230t
wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51
S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32
Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300
SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15
YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37
2015 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25
S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25
SK Global Chem Incheon 200
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16
OthersTaiwanChinaUS
S Korea exports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52
Outlook increased supply likely to head to China
Source ICIS industry
Company Location BZ Start up period
Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016
Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16
Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos
(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul
Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16
Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16
Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16
Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017
Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex
Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017
Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017
KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017
Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017
Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726
Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322
Product Company Location Capacity(kta)
BZ usage Start up period
SM
Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16
Donghao China 300 240 May-16
Phenol
PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16
Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16
Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17
PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017
Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017
CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17
CPL
Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16
China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16
Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16
MDI
Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017
Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017
Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017
Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972
Consumption within China in 2016 637 655
wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53
Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season
S Korea 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75
BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0
S Korea 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5
KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26
S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13
BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3
Japan 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36
Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12
BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0
Japan 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23
Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24
JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24
BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17
Source ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54
BZ demandBZ supply
bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China
bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ
bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene
bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units
bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher
bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure
bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed
bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand
Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55
Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom
Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom
Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom
Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom
wwwiciscom 56
Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets
Pricing information
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wwwiciscom 57
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wwwiciscom 16
Production issues curtailed SE Asia supply
Company Location
C2 capacity (lsquo 000 tonnesyr) Operating status
Shell
PulauBukom Singapore Around 960
Shut in late Nov 2015 may restart in Julearly Aug 2016
Chandra AsriCilegonIndonesia 860
Q1 run rates at 50-85 after capacity expansion in Dec 2015
Source Industry
wwwiciscom 1717
Test
Key price drivers Q2-Q4 2016
wwwiciscom 18
Crude oversupply expected to ease in H2 2016
wwwiciscom 1919Source Industry
2016 ethylene production losses from cracker turnarounds largely in Q2-Q3 overall losses down
34 YoY
wwwiciscom 2020Source Industry
Net losses after including +70kta at Asahi-Mitsubishi JV cracker
Output losses higher than 2015 after factoring in Shellrsquos Singapore cracker outage Asahirsquos cracker closure
wwwiciscom 2121Source Industry
Japan becomes structurally tighter
wwwiciscom 2222Source Industry
S Korearsquos exports likely to stabilise at low levels of around 650kt in 2016 after falling for two years
wwwiciscom 2323
End 2015-2016 ethylene capacity expansions in AsiaMideast
Saudi+1800kta
India+3270kta
Iran+2000kta Japan
+70ktaChina+1615kta
Source Industry
Total 9015 kta
Indonesia+260kta
wwwiciscom 2424Source Industry
Cracker expansions concentrated in IndiaMideast mostly integrated
Company Location
C2 capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr) Start-up schedule
Chandra Asri Cilegon Indonesia +260 to 860 Dec 2015Asahi Kasei Mitsubishi Chemical Ethylene Corp Mizushima Japan +70 to 570 1 Apr 2016GAIL Auraiya India 450 400 PE End Feb 2016Brahmaputra Cracker and Polymer Ltd (BCPL) Lepetkata Assam India 220 220 HDPELLDPE End Q1 2016
ONGC Petro Additions (OPaL) Dahej Gujarat India 1100 340 HDPE 720HDPELLDPE Late Q2 2016
Reliance Jamnagar India 1500 750 MEG 550 LLDPE 450 LDPE End 2016
Sadara Chemical Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia 1500 350 LDPE 1080 solution PE Q2mid 2016 at earliest
Petro Rabigh Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia +300 to 1600 150 LDPEEVA 75 EPDM Apr 2016 (cracker only)
Kavian Petrochemical Bushehr Iran 1000Supply to domestic plants via west pipeline H2 20162017
Arvand Petrochemical Gachsaran Iran 1000Feeds own vinyls plants+pipeline customers H2 20162017
Total C27400
wwwiciscom 2525
Expansions in China centred on integrated coal-based projects
Source Industry
Company Location Facility
C2 capacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstreamcapacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr
Start-upschedule
Shenhua Yulin Shenmu Shaanxi MTO 300 300 PE Dec 2015Inner Mongolia ChinaCoal Mengda New Energy amp Chemical Industry
Erdos Inner Mongolia CTO 300
300HDPELLDPE Apr 2016
Shenhua Xinjiang Urumqi Xinjiang CTO 320 320 LDPE Late Q2 2016
Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Golmud Qinghai CTO 160 300 PVC Q3 2016
Fund (Changzhou) Energy amp Chemical Changzhou Jiangsu MTO 165 Q3 2016
Jiangsu Sailboat PetrochemicalLianyungang Jiangsu MTO 370
300 EVALDPE 180 EO 20 MEG Q4 2016
Total C21615 Will supply to Changzhou Dohowrsquos new 300kta SM plant
wwwiciscom 2626Source Industry
More capacity increases at crackers in NESE Asia in 2017
Company Location
C2 capacityadditions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Completion schedule
Korea Petrochemical Industry Co (KPIC)
Onsan South Korea +330 to 800 Mid 2017
Lotte Chemical TitanPasir Gudang Malaysia 90 H1 2017
CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals (CSPC)
Huizhou Guangdong China 1000
150 EO 480 EG400 HDPE 300 LLDPE 700 SM End 20172018
Total C2 1420
wwwiciscom 27Source Industry
Chinarsquos ethylene import demand in 2016 could increase to around 1550-1600kt from 2015rsquos 1516kt
wwwiciscom 2828
Arbitrage amp Mideast cargoes help offset regional supply shortfalls around 500-565kt expected in 2016
Source Industry
Saudi 170-175kt
US 130-140kt
Europe 200-250kt
Projected spot supply excludes term cargoes
wwwiciscom 29
US ethane-based derivative expansions ndash an emerging threat
wwwiciscom 30
Company LocationC2 capacity (rsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream (lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Start-up schedule
Chevron Phillips ChemicalCedar Bayou Texas 1500
500 Bimodal HDPE 500 mLLDPE at Sweeny Mid 2017
Dow Chemical Freeport Texas 1500400 ELITE PE 350 LDPE 320 elastomers 200 EPDM H1 2017
ExxonMobil Chemical Baytown Texas 1500650x2 mLLDPE plus LLDPE at Mont Belvieu H2 2017
Formosa PlasticsPoint Comfort Texas 1590
525 PE unspec 6255 LDPE1000 MEG 20172018
Occidental ChemicalMexichem Ingleside Texas 544 Feed into existing 1050 VCM Q1 2017
SasolLake Charles Louisiana 1500
450 LDPE 450 LLDPE 300EOEG 300 ethoxylatesdetergent alcohols 2018
Total C28134 Total PE 51005
2017-2018 US ethylene amp derivatives projects country to become major PE exporter
Source ICIS Chemical Business
wwwiciscom 31
Chinarsquos PE deficit to continue
wwwiciscom 32wwwiciscom 32
Asia ethylene market to remain tight in 2016
Low-cost US PE exports likely to begin in late 2017 operations of naphtha-based integrated producers in Asia may be impacted
Conclusion
wwwiciscom 33
Asiarsquos toluene and benzene trade flows
wwwiciscom 34
Drivers of Asiarsquos toluene trade flow
wwwiciscom 35wwwiciscom 35
Asiarsquos TOL prices still tracks PX but relationship may weaken on narrower TDP spreads wider toluene-naphtha gap
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
160002
-Jan
-201
422
-Jan
-201
412
-Feb
-201
404
-Mar
-201
424
-Mar
-201
411
-Apr
-201
401
-May
-201
421
-May
-201
410
-Jun
-201
430
-Jun
-201
418
-Jul
-201
407
-Aug
-201
427
-Aug
-201
416
-Sep
-201
406
-Oct
-201
424
-Oct
-201
413
-Nov
-201
403
-Dec
-201
423
-Dec
-201
421
-Jan
-201
510
-Feb
-201
504
-Mar
-201
524
-Mar
-201
513
-Apr
-201
504
-May
-201
522
-May
-201
511
-Jun
-201
501
-Jul
-201
521
-Jul
-201
511
-Aug
-201
531
-Aug
-201
518
-Sep
-201
508
-Oct
-201
528
-Oct
-201
517
-Nov
-201
507
-Dec
-201
504
-Jan
-201
622
-Jan
-201
615
-Feb
-201
604
-Mar
-201
624
-Mar
-201
6
TDP spread (U
SDtonne)
USD
tonn
e
TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Toluene FOB K PX CFR CN
CF 094
CF 095
CF = correlation factor
CF 092
CF= 093
Healthy margins prevailed in 2014 supporting the closer relationship between PX and TOL prices
Margins turned largely negative in 2015 weakening the relationship slightly Strong blend value (BV) of TOL had larger impact on prices
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 36wwwiciscom 36
Wider toluene-naphtha spread since end-2015 increased toluene selling impetus instead of downstream usage allocation
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400Price spread (U
SDtonne)
USD
tonn
e
Toluene-Naphtha spread Naphtha CFR Japan Toluene FOB South Korea
Heavy speculation low Chinese + Indian inventory healthy PX spread led to widened spread in Q1 2016
Price increases supported by start-up of UAC higher usage of TOL for TDP units in addition to summer blending season
Breakeven level
Ave = 230Ave = 170Ave = 170
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 37wwwiciscom 37
TOL heavily placed in blending pool in 2015 capping op rates of downstream TDPs 2016 situation may be reversed
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
USD
tonn
e
Toluene blend value Toluene FOB Korea prices
95-TOL CF= 090
Strong TOL BV in H1 of 2014 results in the price support from gasoline blending strengthening relationship between the two
FOB K prices consistently higher than BV difficult to find demand from blending pool
95-TOL CF= 06895-TOL CF= 090
TOL BV surpasses TOL FOB K making it possible to be placed into blending pool for most of 2015
CF = correlation factorSource ICIS
wwwiciscom 38wwwiciscom 38
Chinese inventories have heavy influence on buying interest Q1 shortage supported sellersrsquo decision to offload more TOL
Ave = 103kt Ave = 903kt Ave = 89kt
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
USD
tonne0
00 to
nnes
east China south China CFR China price Import parity price of CNY cargoes
Strong demand from gasoline blending sector and cargo delays result in 3-year low inventories
Period of strong demand
Previously overbought slow offtake after LNY
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 39
S Korearsquos importexport position for TOL dependent on TDP spreads switch in production strategies in Q1 2016
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
50
100
150
200
25003
-Jan
-201
424
-Jan
-201
414
-Feb
-201
407
-Mar
-201
428
-Mar
-201
418
-Apr
-201
409
-May
-201
430
-May
-201
420
-Jun
-201
411
-Jul
-201
401
-Aug
-201
422
-Aug
-201
412
-Sep
-201
403
-Oct
-201
424
-Oct
-201
414
-Nov
-201
405
-Dec
-201
426
-Dec
-201
423
-Jan
-201
513
-Feb
-201
506
-Mar
-201
527
-Mar
-201
517
-Apr
-201
508
-May
-201
529
-May
-201
519
-Jun
-201
510
-Jul
-201
531
-Jul
-201
521
-Aug
-201
511
-Sep
-201
502
-Oct
-201
523
-Oct
-201
513
-Nov
-201
504
-Dec
-201
525
-Dec
-201
522
-Jan
-201
612
-Feb
-201
604
-Mar
-201
625
-Mar
-201
615
-Apr
-201
6
Qty in lsquo000 tonnes
USD
tonn
e
TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Exports from S Korea Imports to S Korea
Start up of UACrsquos TDP
Slight strategy switch as low Chinese inventories strong naphtha-TOL spread since Q1 leads to stronger TOL selling interest
Overall drop in TDP spreads from mid-2014 results in selling interest switch to net exporter
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 40
Heavier downstream unit turnarounds and production adjustments led to more S Korea-origin exports
H1 2015 H1 2016
0
20
40
60
80
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Qty
in 0
00 to
nnes
South Korea exports
China Taiwan Vietnam US Japan Singapore India Others
Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 13 00Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 00 00 18 00Hyundai Cosmo TDP Daesan 00 00 00 50 200 00S Oil No 2 TDP Onsan 00 00 00 200 00 00
00 00 00 250 231 00Producer LocationLG Chem Daesan 00 00 23 23 00 00YNCC No 1 Yeosu 00 00 00 00 50 50Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 00 00 00 08 63 00Lotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 23 00 00S Oil No 2 Onsan 00 00 124 267 00 00SKGC Incheon 67 00 00 00 00 00
67 00 147 321 113 50
Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)
Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)
Source ICIS
Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 00 87Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 27 00 00 00OCI TDI Kunsan 00 06 00 00 00 00GSCX STDP Yeosu 00 00 00 583 82 00Hanwha Total TDP Daesan 00 00 222 278 00 00SKGC TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 00 49 208LG H D A Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38
38 45 288 899 169 333Producer Location Hanwha Total Daesan 00 00 153 191 00 00GSCX Yeosu 00 00 00 174 49 00Lotte Chem Yeosu 00 00 00 47 16 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 00 78 333YNCC Yeosu 00 00 33 17 00 00
00 00 186 428 143 333
Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)
Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)
wwwiciscom 41wwwiciscom 41
NE Asia and SE Asia exports to China rise since H2 2015 on healthy netbacks strong demand
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
USD
tonne
Qty
in 0
00 to
nnes
Others
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
Import parity of domesticcargoesFOB South Korea prices
Increase in selling to China because of healthy netbacks weak TDP spread
Narrow gap results in fewer imports in line with FOB K price support from PX
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 42wwwiciscom 42
Exports from Asia to US market sporadic highly dependent on price gap gasoline blending season and Asia demand
0
10
20
30
40
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250Q
ty in 000 tonnesU
SDto
nne
Price gap (Asia prompt vs US forward) Exports from Asia to US
Open arbitrage opportunities result in increase of Asia exports
Consistent upward trend leads to selling interest
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 43wwwiciscom 43
India TOL imports mainly from SE Asia and Iran
46
23
17
37
4
2014
Singapore Thailand Iran S Korea Europe Others
2015
50
24
9
37
7
Source customs data
Total= 288kt Total= 288kt
wwwiciscom 44wwwiciscom 44
NE Asia TOL supply could outstrip demand in H2 2016 on heavier downstream turnarounds permanent shutdowns
H2 2015 H2 2016
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S Oil Onsan old TDP Onsan 00 42 42 00 00 00
00 42 42 00 00 00FCFC Aroma 2 TDP Mailiao 67 200 00 00 00 00
67 200 00 00 00 00JX Nippon Oil TDP Mizushima A 00 00 75 75 00 00
00 00 75 75 00 0067 242 117 75 00 00
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecLotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 73 25 00KPIC Ulsan 00 00 00 83 00 00S Oil No 1 Onsan 00 146 146 00 00 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 167 333 00OCI Yeosu 00 00 00 33 00 00
00 146 146 357 358 00Mitsui Chemicals Chiba 00 00 00 83 83 00JX Nippon Oil Mizushima A 00 00 117 233 00 00Tonen General Wakayama 00 00 00 69 92 00
00 00 117 385 175 00FCFC Aroma No 2 Mailiao 83 250 00 00 00 00CPC No 6 Kaohsiung 40 00 20 80 20 00CPC No3 Kaoshiung 00 00 00 00 83 55
123 250 20 80 103 55123 396 283 822 636 55
Est TOL consumption loss from KR
Est TOL consumption loss from TW
Est TOL production loss from KR
Total est consumption loss from NE Asia
Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia
CONSUMPTION (mt)
PRODUCTION (mt)
Est TOL consumption loss from JPN
Est TOL production loss from JPN
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUlsan Aromatics Center TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 1000 500 00SKGC TDP Incheon 00 00 00 83 42 00LG Chem H D A (shut since Jan) Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38
38 38 38 1122 580 38Taiyo Oil TDP cut rate only Kikuma 42 07 00 00 00 00MSNC TDI (shut since April) Omuta 65 65 65 65 65 65
107 72 65 65 65 65145 110 103 1187 645 103
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSKGC Incheon 00 00 00 133 67 00
00 00 00 133 67 00Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 00 00 108 108 00 00JFEC Chiba 00 00 14 42 00 00
00 00 122 150 00 00CPC No 7 Kaohsiung 00 00 00 27 108 00CPC No 3 Kaohsiung 110 00 00 00 00 00
110 00 00 27 108 00110 00 122 310 175 00
Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia
PRODUCTION (mt)
CONSUMPTION (mt)
Est TOL consumption loss from KR
Est TOL consumption loss from JPNTotal est consumption loss from NE Asia
Est TOL production loss from KR
Est TOL production loss from JPN
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016
Qty
in to
nnes
Total est consumption loss from NE Asia Total est production loss from NE AsiaSource ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45
Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance
Source ICIS
bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016
bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread
bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption
bull Improvements in TOL blend values
bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading
bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer
bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers
bull Other competitively priced blendstocks
bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL
bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China
TOL supply
TOL demand
Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors
wwwiciscom 46
Drivers of benzene trade flow
wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47
-60-40-200204060
500550600650700750800850900
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea
China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016
020000400006000080000
100000120000140000160000180000200000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Tonn
es
Others
MiddleEastThailand
Malaysia
Taiwan
Japan
SouthKorea
China imports
Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand
Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance
Strong appetite for imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48
Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
Pric
e ($
tonn
e)
Tonn
es
Shore tank inventories
E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity
2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite
Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains
Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49
-80-60-40-20020406080100
500550600650700750800850900950
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15
Tonn
es
OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea
Imports from Asia increase
Imports lower due to higher China prices
S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015
Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates
US imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50
Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600Ja
n-14
Feb-
14M
ar-1
4A
pr-1
4M
ay-1
4Ju
n-14
Jul-1
4A
ug-1
4Se
p-14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Dec
-14
Jan-
15Fe
b-15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
May
-15
Jun-
15Ju
l-15
Aug
-15
Sep-
15O
ct-1
5N
ov-1
5D
ec-1
5Ja
n-16
Feb-
16M
ar-1
6A
pr-1
6
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)Naphtha-Benzene
Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene
$346t $193t $230t
wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51
S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32
Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300
SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15
YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37
2015 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25
S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25
SK Global Chem Incheon 200
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16
OthersTaiwanChinaUS
S Korea exports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52
Outlook increased supply likely to head to China
Source ICIS industry
Company Location BZ Start up period
Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016
Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16
Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos
(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul
Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16
Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16
Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16
Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017
Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex
Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017
Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017
KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017
Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017
Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726
Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322
Product Company Location Capacity(kta)
BZ usage Start up period
SM
Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16
Donghao China 300 240 May-16
Phenol
PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16
Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16
Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17
PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017
Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017
CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17
CPL
Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16
China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16
Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16
MDI
Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017
Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017
Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017
Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972
Consumption within China in 2016 637 655
wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53
Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season
S Korea 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75
BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0
S Korea 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5
KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26
S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13
BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3
Japan 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36
Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12
BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0
Japan 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23
Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24
JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24
BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17
Source ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54
BZ demandBZ supply
bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China
bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ
bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene
bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units
bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher
bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure
bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed
bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand
Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55
Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom
Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom
Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom
Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom
wwwiciscom 56
Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets
Pricing information
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wwwiciscom 57
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wwwiciscom 1717
Test
Key price drivers Q2-Q4 2016
wwwiciscom 18
Crude oversupply expected to ease in H2 2016
wwwiciscom 1919Source Industry
2016 ethylene production losses from cracker turnarounds largely in Q2-Q3 overall losses down
34 YoY
wwwiciscom 2020Source Industry
Net losses after including +70kta at Asahi-Mitsubishi JV cracker
Output losses higher than 2015 after factoring in Shellrsquos Singapore cracker outage Asahirsquos cracker closure
wwwiciscom 2121Source Industry
Japan becomes structurally tighter
wwwiciscom 2222Source Industry
S Korearsquos exports likely to stabilise at low levels of around 650kt in 2016 after falling for two years
wwwiciscom 2323
End 2015-2016 ethylene capacity expansions in AsiaMideast
Saudi+1800kta
India+3270kta
Iran+2000kta Japan
+70ktaChina+1615kta
Source Industry
Total 9015 kta
Indonesia+260kta
wwwiciscom 2424Source Industry
Cracker expansions concentrated in IndiaMideast mostly integrated
Company Location
C2 capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr) Start-up schedule
Chandra Asri Cilegon Indonesia +260 to 860 Dec 2015Asahi Kasei Mitsubishi Chemical Ethylene Corp Mizushima Japan +70 to 570 1 Apr 2016GAIL Auraiya India 450 400 PE End Feb 2016Brahmaputra Cracker and Polymer Ltd (BCPL) Lepetkata Assam India 220 220 HDPELLDPE End Q1 2016
ONGC Petro Additions (OPaL) Dahej Gujarat India 1100 340 HDPE 720HDPELLDPE Late Q2 2016
Reliance Jamnagar India 1500 750 MEG 550 LLDPE 450 LDPE End 2016
Sadara Chemical Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia 1500 350 LDPE 1080 solution PE Q2mid 2016 at earliest
Petro Rabigh Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia +300 to 1600 150 LDPEEVA 75 EPDM Apr 2016 (cracker only)
Kavian Petrochemical Bushehr Iran 1000Supply to domestic plants via west pipeline H2 20162017
Arvand Petrochemical Gachsaran Iran 1000Feeds own vinyls plants+pipeline customers H2 20162017
Total C27400
wwwiciscom 2525
Expansions in China centred on integrated coal-based projects
Source Industry
Company Location Facility
C2 capacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstreamcapacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr
Start-upschedule
Shenhua Yulin Shenmu Shaanxi MTO 300 300 PE Dec 2015Inner Mongolia ChinaCoal Mengda New Energy amp Chemical Industry
Erdos Inner Mongolia CTO 300
300HDPELLDPE Apr 2016
Shenhua Xinjiang Urumqi Xinjiang CTO 320 320 LDPE Late Q2 2016
Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Golmud Qinghai CTO 160 300 PVC Q3 2016
Fund (Changzhou) Energy amp Chemical Changzhou Jiangsu MTO 165 Q3 2016
Jiangsu Sailboat PetrochemicalLianyungang Jiangsu MTO 370
300 EVALDPE 180 EO 20 MEG Q4 2016
Total C21615 Will supply to Changzhou Dohowrsquos new 300kta SM plant
wwwiciscom 2626Source Industry
More capacity increases at crackers in NESE Asia in 2017
Company Location
C2 capacityadditions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Completion schedule
Korea Petrochemical Industry Co (KPIC)
Onsan South Korea +330 to 800 Mid 2017
Lotte Chemical TitanPasir Gudang Malaysia 90 H1 2017
CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals (CSPC)
Huizhou Guangdong China 1000
150 EO 480 EG400 HDPE 300 LLDPE 700 SM End 20172018
Total C2 1420
wwwiciscom 27Source Industry
Chinarsquos ethylene import demand in 2016 could increase to around 1550-1600kt from 2015rsquos 1516kt
wwwiciscom 2828
Arbitrage amp Mideast cargoes help offset regional supply shortfalls around 500-565kt expected in 2016
Source Industry
Saudi 170-175kt
US 130-140kt
Europe 200-250kt
Projected spot supply excludes term cargoes
wwwiciscom 29
US ethane-based derivative expansions ndash an emerging threat
wwwiciscom 30
Company LocationC2 capacity (rsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream (lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Start-up schedule
Chevron Phillips ChemicalCedar Bayou Texas 1500
500 Bimodal HDPE 500 mLLDPE at Sweeny Mid 2017
Dow Chemical Freeport Texas 1500400 ELITE PE 350 LDPE 320 elastomers 200 EPDM H1 2017
ExxonMobil Chemical Baytown Texas 1500650x2 mLLDPE plus LLDPE at Mont Belvieu H2 2017
Formosa PlasticsPoint Comfort Texas 1590
525 PE unspec 6255 LDPE1000 MEG 20172018
Occidental ChemicalMexichem Ingleside Texas 544 Feed into existing 1050 VCM Q1 2017
SasolLake Charles Louisiana 1500
450 LDPE 450 LLDPE 300EOEG 300 ethoxylatesdetergent alcohols 2018
Total C28134 Total PE 51005
2017-2018 US ethylene amp derivatives projects country to become major PE exporter
Source ICIS Chemical Business
wwwiciscom 31
Chinarsquos PE deficit to continue
wwwiciscom 32wwwiciscom 32
Asia ethylene market to remain tight in 2016
Low-cost US PE exports likely to begin in late 2017 operations of naphtha-based integrated producers in Asia may be impacted
Conclusion
wwwiciscom 33
Asiarsquos toluene and benzene trade flows
wwwiciscom 34
Drivers of Asiarsquos toluene trade flow
wwwiciscom 35wwwiciscom 35
Asiarsquos TOL prices still tracks PX but relationship may weaken on narrower TDP spreads wider toluene-naphtha gap
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
160002
-Jan
-201
422
-Jan
-201
412
-Feb
-201
404
-Mar
-201
424
-Mar
-201
411
-Apr
-201
401
-May
-201
421
-May
-201
410
-Jun
-201
430
-Jun
-201
418
-Jul
-201
407
-Aug
-201
427
-Aug
-201
416
-Sep
-201
406
-Oct
-201
424
-Oct
-201
413
-Nov
-201
403
-Dec
-201
423
-Dec
-201
421
-Jan
-201
510
-Feb
-201
504
-Mar
-201
524
-Mar
-201
513
-Apr
-201
504
-May
-201
522
-May
-201
511
-Jun
-201
501
-Jul
-201
521
-Jul
-201
511
-Aug
-201
531
-Aug
-201
518
-Sep
-201
508
-Oct
-201
528
-Oct
-201
517
-Nov
-201
507
-Dec
-201
504
-Jan
-201
622
-Jan
-201
615
-Feb
-201
604
-Mar
-201
624
-Mar
-201
6
TDP spread (U
SDtonne)
USD
tonn
e
TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Toluene FOB K PX CFR CN
CF 094
CF 095
CF = correlation factor
CF 092
CF= 093
Healthy margins prevailed in 2014 supporting the closer relationship between PX and TOL prices
Margins turned largely negative in 2015 weakening the relationship slightly Strong blend value (BV) of TOL had larger impact on prices
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 36wwwiciscom 36
Wider toluene-naphtha spread since end-2015 increased toluene selling impetus instead of downstream usage allocation
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400Price spread (U
SDtonne)
USD
tonn
e
Toluene-Naphtha spread Naphtha CFR Japan Toluene FOB South Korea
Heavy speculation low Chinese + Indian inventory healthy PX spread led to widened spread in Q1 2016
Price increases supported by start-up of UAC higher usage of TOL for TDP units in addition to summer blending season
Breakeven level
Ave = 230Ave = 170Ave = 170
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 37wwwiciscom 37
TOL heavily placed in blending pool in 2015 capping op rates of downstream TDPs 2016 situation may be reversed
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
USD
tonn
e
Toluene blend value Toluene FOB Korea prices
95-TOL CF= 090
Strong TOL BV in H1 of 2014 results in the price support from gasoline blending strengthening relationship between the two
FOB K prices consistently higher than BV difficult to find demand from blending pool
95-TOL CF= 06895-TOL CF= 090
TOL BV surpasses TOL FOB K making it possible to be placed into blending pool for most of 2015
CF = correlation factorSource ICIS
wwwiciscom 38wwwiciscom 38
Chinese inventories have heavy influence on buying interest Q1 shortage supported sellersrsquo decision to offload more TOL
Ave = 103kt Ave = 903kt Ave = 89kt
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
USD
tonne0
00 to
nnes
east China south China CFR China price Import parity price of CNY cargoes
Strong demand from gasoline blending sector and cargo delays result in 3-year low inventories
Period of strong demand
Previously overbought slow offtake after LNY
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 39
S Korearsquos importexport position for TOL dependent on TDP spreads switch in production strategies in Q1 2016
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
50
100
150
200
25003
-Jan
-201
424
-Jan
-201
414
-Feb
-201
407
-Mar
-201
428
-Mar
-201
418
-Apr
-201
409
-May
-201
430
-May
-201
420
-Jun
-201
411
-Jul
-201
401
-Aug
-201
422
-Aug
-201
412
-Sep
-201
403
-Oct
-201
424
-Oct
-201
414
-Nov
-201
405
-Dec
-201
426
-Dec
-201
423
-Jan
-201
513
-Feb
-201
506
-Mar
-201
527
-Mar
-201
517
-Apr
-201
508
-May
-201
529
-May
-201
519
-Jun
-201
510
-Jul
-201
531
-Jul
-201
521
-Aug
-201
511
-Sep
-201
502
-Oct
-201
523
-Oct
-201
513
-Nov
-201
504
-Dec
-201
525
-Dec
-201
522
-Jan
-201
612
-Feb
-201
604
-Mar
-201
625
-Mar
-201
615
-Apr
-201
6
Qty in lsquo000 tonnes
USD
tonn
e
TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Exports from S Korea Imports to S Korea
Start up of UACrsquos TDP
Slight strategy switch as low Chinese inventories strong naphtha-TOL spread since Q1 leads to stronger TOL selling interest
Overall drop in TDP spreads from mid-2014 results in selling interest switch to net exporter
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 40
Heavier downstream unit turnarounds and production adjustments led to more S Korea-origin exports
H1 2015 H1 2016
0
20
40
60
80
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Qty
in 0
00 to
nnes
South Korea exports
China Taiwan Vietnam US Japan Singapore India Others
Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 13 00Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 00 00 18 00Hyundai Cosmo TDP Daesan 00 00 00 50 200 00S Oil No 2 TDP Onsan 00 00 00 200 00 00
00 00 00 250 231 00Producer LocationLG Chem Daesan 00 00 23 23 00 00YNCC No 1 Yeosu 00 00 00 00 50 50Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 00 00 00 08 63 00Lotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 23 00 00S Oil No 2 Onsan 00 00 124 267 00 00SKGC Incheon 67 00 00 00 00 00
67 00 147 321 113 50
Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)
Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)
Source ICIS
Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 00 87Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 27 00 00 00OCI TDI Kunsan 00 06 00 00 00 00GSCX STDP Yeosu 00 00 00 583 82 00Hanwha Total TDP Daesan 00 00 222 278 00 00SKGC TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 00 49 208LG H D A Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38
38 45 288 899 169 333Producer Location Hanwha Total Daesan 00 00 153 191 00 00GSCX Yeosu 00 00 00 174 49 00Lotte Chem Yeosu 00 00 00 47 16 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 00 78 333YNCC Yeosu 00 00 33 17 00 00
00 00 186 428 143 333
Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)
Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)
wwwiciscom 41wwwiciscom 41
NE Asia and SE Asia exports to China rise since H2 2015 on healthy netbacks strong demand
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
USD
tonne
Qty
in 0
00 to
nnes
Others
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
Import parity of domesticcargoesFOB South Korea prices
Increase in selling to China because of healthy netbacks weak TDP spread
Narrow gap results in fewer imports in line with FOB K price support from PX
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 42wwwiciscom 42
Exports from Asia to US market sporadic highly dependent on price gap gasoline blending season and Asia demand
0
10
20
30
40
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250Q
ty in 000 tonnesU
SDto
nne
Price gap (Asia prompt vs US forward) Exports from Asia to US
Open arbitrage opportunities result in increase of Asia exports
Consistent upward trend leads to selling interest
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 43wwwiciscom 43
India TOL imports mainly from SE Asia and Iran
46
23
17
37
4
2014
Singapore Thailand Iran S Korea Europe Others
2015
50
24
9
37
7
Source customs data
Total= 288kt Total= 288kt
wwwiciscom 44wwwiciscom 44
NE Asia TOL supply could outstrip demand in H2 2016 on heavier downstream turnarounds permanent shutdowns
H2 2015 H2 2016
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S Oil Onsan old TDP Onsan 00 42 42 00 00 00
00 42 42 00 00 00FCFC Aroma 2 TDP Mailiao 67 200 00 00 00 00
67 200 00 00 00 00JX Nippon Oil TDP Mizushima A 00 00 75 75 00 00
00 00 75 75 00 0067 242 117 75 00 00
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecLotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 73 25 00KPIC Ulsan 00 00 00 83 00 00S Oil No 1 Onsan 00 146 146 00 00 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 167 333 00OCI Yeosu 00 00 00 33 00 00
00 146 146 357 358 00Mitsui Chemicals Chiba 00 00 00 83 83 00JX Nippon Oil Mizushima A 00 00 117 233 00 00Tonen General Wakayama 00 00 00 69 92 00
00 00 117 385 175 00FCFC Aroma No 2 Mailiao 83 250 00 00 00 00CPC No 6 Kaohsiung 40 00 20 80 20 00CPC No3 Kaoshiung 00 00 00 00 83 55
123 250 20 80 103 55123 396 283 822 636 55
Est TOL consumption loss from KR
Est TOL consumption loss from TW
Est TOL production loss from KR
Total est consumption loss from NE Asia
Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia
CONSUMPTION (mt)
PRODUCTION (mt)
Est TOL consumption loss from JPN
Est TOL production loss from JPN
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUlsan Aromatics Center TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 1000 500 00SKGC TDP Incheon 00 00 00 83 42 00LG Chem H D A (shut since Jan) Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38
38 38 38 1122 580 38Taiyo Oil TDP cut rate only Kikuma 42 07 00 00 00 00MSNC TDI (shut since April) Omuta 65 65 65 65 65 65
107 72 65 65 65 65145 110 103 1187 645 103
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSKGC Incheon 00 00 00 133 67 00
00 00 00 133 67 00Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 00 00 108 108 00 00JFEC Chiba 00 00 14 42 00 00
00 00 122 150 00 00CPC No 7 Kaohsiung 00 00 00 27 108 00CPC No 3 Kaohsiung 110 00 00 00 00 00
110 00 00 27 108 00110 00 122 310 175 00
Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia
PRODUCTION (mt)
CONSUMPTION (mt)
Est TOL consumption loss from KR
Est TOL consumption loss from JPNTotal est consumption loss from NE Asia
Est TOL production loss from KR
Est TOL production loss from JPN
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016
Qty
in to
nnes
Total est consumption loss from NE Asia Total est production loss from NE AsiaSource ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45
Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance
Source ICIS
bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016
bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread
bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption
bull Improvements in TOL blend values
bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading
bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer
bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers
bull Other competitively priced blendstocks
bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL
bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China
TOL supply
TOL demand
Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors
wwwiciscom 46
Drivers of benzene trade flow
wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47
-60-40-200204060
500550600650700750800850900
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea
China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016
020000400006000080000
100000120000140000160000180000200000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Tonn
es
Others
MiddleEastThailand
Malaysia
Taiwan
Japan
SouthKorea
China imports
Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand
Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance
Strong appetite for imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48
Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
Pric
e ($
tonn
e)
Tonn
es
Shore tank inventories
E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity
2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite
Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains
Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49
-80-60-40-20020406080100
500550600650700750800850900950
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15
Tonn
es
OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea
Imports from Asia increase
Imports lower due to higher China prices
S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015
Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates
US imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50
Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600Ja
n-14
Feb-
14M
ar-1
4A
pr-1
4M
ay-1
4Ju
n-14
Jul-1
4A
ug-1
4Se
p-14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Dec
-14
Jan-
15Fe
b-15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
May
-15
Jun-
15Ju
l-15
Aug
-15
Sep-
15O
ct-1
5N
ov-1
5D
ec-1
5Ja
n-16
Feb-
16M
ar-1
6A
pr-1
6
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)Naphtha-Benzene
Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene
$346t $193t $230t
wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51
S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32
Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300
SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15
YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37
2015 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25
S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25
SK Global Chem Incheon 200
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16
OthersTaiwanChinaUS
S Korea exports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52
Outlook increased supply likely to head to China
Source ICIS industry
Company Location BZ Start up period
Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016
Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16
Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos
(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul
Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16
Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16
Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16
Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017
Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex
Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017
Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017
KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017
Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017
Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726
Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322
Product Company Location Capacity(kta)
BZ usage Start up period
SM
Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16
Donghao China 300 240 May-16
Phenol
PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16
Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16
Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17
PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017
Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017
CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17
CPL
Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16
China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16
Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16
MDI
Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017
Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017
Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017
Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972
Consumption within China in 2016 637 655
wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53
Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season
S Korea 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75
BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0
S Korea 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5
KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26
S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13
BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3
Japan 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36
Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12
BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0
Japan 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23
Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24
JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24
BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17
Source ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54
BZ demandBZ supply
bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China
bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ
bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene
bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units
bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher
bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure
bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed
bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand
Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55
Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom
Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom
Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom
Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom
wwwiciscom 56
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wwwiciscom 57
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wwwiciscom 18
Crude oversupply expected to ease in H2 2016
wwwiciscom 1919Source Industry
2016 ethylene production losses from cracker turnarounds largely in Q2-Q3 overall losses down
34 YoY
wwwiciscom 2020Source Industry
Net losses after including +70kta at Asahi-Mitsubishi JV cracker
Output losses higher than 2015 after factoring in Shellrsquos Singapore cracker outage Asahirsquos cracker closure
wwwiciscom 2121Source Industry
Japan becomes structurally tighter
wwwiciscom 2222Source Industry
S Korearsquos exports likely to stabilise at low levels of around 650kt in 2016 after falling for two years
wwwiciscom 2323
End 2015-2016 ethylene capacity expansions in AsiaMideast
Saudi+1800kta
India+3270kta
Iran+2000kta Japan
+70ktaChina+1615kta
Source Industry
Total 9015 kta
Indonesia+260kta
wwwiciscom 2424Source Industry
Cracker expansions concentrated in IndiaMideast mostly integrated
Company Location
C2 capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr) Start-up schedule
Chandra Asri Cilegon Indonesia +260 to 860 Dec 2015Asahi Kasei Mitsubishi Chemical Ethylene Corp Mizushima Japan +70 to 570 1 Apr 2016GAIL Auraiya India 450 400 PE End Feb 2016Brahmaputra Cracker and Polymer Ltd (BCPL) Lepetkata Assam India 220 220 HDPELLDPE End Q1 2016
ONGC Petro Additions (OPaL) Dahej Gujarat India 1100 340 HDPE 720HDPELLDPE Late Q2 2016
Reliance Jamnagar India 1500 750 MEG 550 LLDPE 450 LDPE End 2016
Sadara Chemical Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia 1500 350 LDPE 1080 solution PE Q2mid 2016 at earliest
Petro Rabigh Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia +300 to 1600 150 LDPEEVA 75 EPDM Apr 2016 (cracker only)
Kavian Petrochemical Bushehr Iran 1000Supply to domestic plants via west pipeline H2 20162017
Arvand Petrochemical Gachsaran Iran 1000Feeds own vinyls plants+pipeline customers H2 20162017
Total C27400
wwwiciscom 2525
Expansions in China centred on integrated coal-based projects
Source Industry
Company Location Facility
C2 capacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstreamcapacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr
Start-upschedule
Shenhua Yulin Shenmu Shaanxi MTO 300 300 PE Dec 2015Inner Mongolia ChinaCoal Mengda New Energy amp Chemical Industry
Erdos Inner Mongolia CTO 300
300HDPELLDPE Apr 2016
Shenhua Xinjiang Urumqi Xinjiang CTO 320 320 LDPE Late Q2 2016
Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Golmud Qinghai CTO 160 300 PVC Q3 2016
Fund (Changzhou) Energy amp Chemical Changzhou Jiangsu MTO 165 Q3 2016
Jiangsu Sailboat PetrochemicalLianyungang Jiangsu MTO 370
300 EVALDPE 180 EO 20 MEG Q4 2016
Total C21615 Will supply to Changzhou Dohowrsquos new 300kta SM plant
wwwiciscom 2626Source Industry
More capacity increases at crackers in NESE Asia in 2017
Company Location
C2 capacityadditions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Completion schedule
Korea Petrochemical Industry Co (KPIC)
Onsan South Korea +330 to 800 Mid 2017
Lotte Chemical TitanPasir Gudang Malaysia 90 H1 2017
CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals (CSPC)
Huizhou Guangdong China 1000
150 EO 480 EG400 HDPE 300 LLDPE 700 SM End 20172018
Total C2 1420
wwwiciscom 27Source Industry
Chinarsquos ethylene import demand in 2016 could increase to around 1550-1600kt from 2015rsquos 1516kt
wwwiciscom 2828
Arbitrage amp Mideast cargoes help offset regional supply shortfalls around 500-565kt expected in 2016
Source Industry
Saudi 170-175kt
US 130-140kt
Europe 200-250kt
Projected spot supply excludes term cargoes
wwwiciscom 29
US ethane-based derivative expansions ndash an emerging threat
wwwiciscom 30
Company LocationC2 capacity (rsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream (lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Start-up schedule
Chevron Phillips ChemicalCedar Bayou Texas 1500
500 Bimodal HDPE 500 mLLDPE at Sweeny Mid 2017
Dow Chemical Freeport Texas 1500400 ELITE PE 350 LDPE 320 elastomers 200 EPDM H1 2017
ExxonMobil Chemical Baytown Texas 1500650x2 mLLDPE plus LLDPE at Mont Belvieu H2 2017
Formosa PlasticsPoint Comfort Texas 1590
525 PE unspec 6255 LDPE1000 MEG 20172018
Occidental ChemicalMexichem Ingleside Texas 544 Feed into existing 1050 VCM Q1 2017
SasolLake Charles Louisiana 1500
450 LDPE 450 LLDPE 300EOEG 300 ethoxylatesdetergent alcohols 2018
Total C28134 Total PE 51005
2017-2018 US ethylene amp derivatives projects country to become major PE exporter
Source ICIS Chemical Business
wwwiciscom 31
Chinarsquos PE deficit to continue
wwwiciscom 32wwwiciscom 32
Asia ethylene market to remain tight in 2016
Low-cost US PE exports likely to begin in late 2017 operations of naphtha-based integrated producers in Asia may be impacted
Conclusion
wwwiciscom 33
Asiarsquos toluene and benzene trade flows
wwwiciscom 34
Drivers of Asiarsquos toluene trade flow
wwwiciscom 35wwwiciscom 35
Asiarsquos TOL prices still tracks PX but relationship may weaken on narrower TDP spreads wider toluene-naphtha gap
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
160002
-Jan
-201
422
-Jan
-201
412
-Feb
-201
404
-Mar
-201
424
-Mar
-201
411
-Apr
-201
401
-May
-201
421
-May
-201
410
-Jun
-201
430
-Jun
-201
418
-Jul
-201
407
-Aug
-201
427
-Aug
-201
416
-Sep
-201
406
-Oct
-201
424
-Oct
-201
413
-Nov
-201
403
-Dec
-201
423
-Dec
-201
421
-Jan
-201
510
-Feb
-201
504
-Mar
-201
524
-Mar
-201
513
-Apr
-201
504
-May
-201
522
-May
-201
511
-Jun
-201
501
-Jul
-201
521
-Jul
-201
511
-Aug
-201
531
-Aug
-201
518
-Sep
-201
508
-Oct
-201
528
-Oct
-201
517
-Nov
-201
507
-Dec
-201
504
-Jan
-201
622
-Jan
-201
615
-Feb
-201
604
-Mar
-201
624
-Mar
-201
6
TDP spread (U
SDtonne)
USD
tonn
e
TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Toluene FOB K PX CFR CN
CF 094
CF 095
CF = correlation factor
CF 092
CF= 093
Healthy margins prevailed in 2014 supporting the closer relationship between PX and TOL prices
Margins turned largely negative in 2015 weakening the relationship slightly Strong blend value (BV) of TOL had larger impact on prices
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 36wwwiciscom 36
Wider toluene-naphtha spread since end-2015 increased toluene selling impetus instead of downstream usage allocation
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400Price spread (U
SDtonne)
USD
tonn
e
Toluene-Naphtha spread Naphtha CFR Japan Toluene FOB South Korea
Heavy speculation low Chinese + Indian inventory healthy PX spread led to widened spread in Q1 2016
Price increases supported by start-up of UAC higher usage of TOL for TDP units in addition to summer blending season
Breakeven level
Ave = 230Ave = 170Ave = 170
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 37wwwiciscom 37
TOL heavily placed in blending pool in 2015 capping op rates of downstream TDPs 2016 situation may be reversed
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
USD
tonn
e
Toluene blend value Toluene FOB Korea prices
95-TOL CF= 090
Strong TOL BV in H1 of 2014 results in the price support from gasoline blending strengthening relationship between the two
FOB K prices consistently higher than BV difficult to find demand from blending pool
95-TOL CF= 06895-TOL CF= 090
TOL BV surpasses TOL FOB K making it possible to be placed into blending pool for most of 2015
CF = correlation factorSource ICIS
wwwiciscom 38wwwiciscom 38
Chinese inventories have heavy influence on buying interest Q1 shortage supported sellersrsquo decision to offload more TOL
Ave = 103kt Ave = 903kt Ave = 89kt
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
USD
tonne0
00 to
nnes
east China south China CFR China price Import parity price of CNY cargoes
Strong demand from gasoline blending sector and cargo delays result in 3-year low inventories
Period of strong demand
Previously overbought slow offtake after LNY
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 39
S Korearsquos importexport position for TOL dependent on TDP spreads switch in production strategies in Q1 2016
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
50
100
150
200
25003
-Jan
-201
424
-Jan
-201
414
-Feb
-201
407
-Mar
-201
428
-Mar
-201
418
-Apr
-201
409
-May
-201
430
-May
-201
420
-Jun
-201
411
-Jul
-201
401
-Aug
-201
422
-Aug
-201
412
-Sep
-201
403
-Oct
-201
424
-Oct
-201
414
-Nov
-201
405
-Dec
-201
426
-Dec
-201
423
-Jan
-201
513
-Feb
-201
506
-Mar
-201
527
-Mar
-201
517
-Apr
-201
508
-May
-201
529
-May
-201
519
-Jun
-201
510
-Jul
-201
531
-Jul
-201
521
-Aug
-201
511
-Sep
-201
502
-Oct
-201
523
-Oct
-201
513
-Nov
-201
504
-Dec
-201
525
-Dec
-201
522
-Jan
-201
612
-Feb
-201
604
-Mar
-201
625
-Mar
-201
615
-Apr
-201
6
Qty in lsquo000 tonnes
USD
tonn
e
TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Exports from S Korea Imports to S Korea
Start up of UACrsquos TDP
Slight strategy switch as low Chinese inventories strong naphtha-TOL spread since Q1 leads to stronger TOL selling interest
Overall drop in TDP spreads from mid-2014 results in selling interest switch to net exporter
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 40
Heavier downstream unit turnarounds and production adjustments led to more S Korea-origin exports
H1 2015 H1 2016
0
20
40
60
80
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Qty
in 0
00 to
nnes
South Korea exports
China Taiwan Vietnam US Japan Singapore India Others
Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 13 00Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 00 00 18 00Hyundai Cosmo TDP Daesan 00 00 00 50 200 00S Oil No 2 TDP Onsan 00 00 00 200 00 00
00 00 00 250 231 00Producer LocationLG Chem Daesan 00 00 23 23 00 00YNCC No 1 Yeosu 00 00 00 00 50 50Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 00 00 00 08 63 00Lotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 23 00 00S Oil No 2 Onsan 00 00 124 267 00 00SKGC Incheon 67 00 00 00 00 00
67 00 147 321 113 50
Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)
Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)
Source ICIS
Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 00 87Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 27 00 00 00OCI TDI Kunsan 00 06 00 00 00 00GSCX STDP Yeosu 00 00 00 583 82 00Hanwha Total TDP Daesan 00 00 222 278 00 00SKGC TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 00 49 208LG H D A Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38
38 45 288 899 169 333Producer Location Hanwha Total Daesan 00 00 153 191 00 00GSCX Yeosu 00 00 00 174 49 00Lotte Chem Yeosu 00 00 00 47 16 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 00 78 333YNCC Yeosu 00 00 33 17 00 00
00 00 186 428 143 333
Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)
Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)
wwwiciscom 41wwwiciscom 41
NE Asia and SE Asia exports to China rise since H2 2015 on healthy netbacks strong demand
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
USD
tonne
Qty
in 0
00 to
nnes
Others
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
Import parity of domesticcargoesFOB South Korea prices
Increase in selling to China because of healthy netbacks weak TDP spread
Narrow gap results in fewer imports in line with FOB K price support from PX
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 42wwwiciscom 42
Exports from Asia to US market sporadic highly dependent on price gap gasoline blending season and Asia demand
0
10
20
30
40
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250Q
ty in 000 tonnesU
SDto
nne
Price gap (Asia prompt vs US forward) Exports from Asia to US
Open arbitrage opportunities result in increase of Asia exports
Consistent upward trend leads to selling interest
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 43wwwiciscom 43
India TOL imports mainly from SE Asia and Iran
46
23
17
37
4
2014
Singapore Thailand Iran S Korea Europe Others
2015
50
24
9
37
7
Source customs data
Total= 288kt Total= 288kt
wwwiciscom 44wwwiciscom 44
NE Asia TOL supply could outstrip demand in H2 2016 on heavier downstream turnarounds permanent shutdowns
H2 2015 H2 2016
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S Oil Onsan old TDP Onsan 00 42 42 00 00 00
00 42 42 00 00 00FCFC Aroma 2 TDP Mailiao 67 200 00 00 00 00
67 200 00 00 00 00JX Nippon Oil TDP Mizushima A 00 00 75 75 00 00
00 00 75 75 00 0067 242 117 75 00 00
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecLotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 73 25 00KPIC Ulsan 00 00 00 83 00 00S Oil No 1 Onsan 00 146 146 00 00 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 167 333 00OCI Yeosu 00 00 00 33 00 00
00 146 146 357 358 00Mitsui Chemicals Chiba 00 00 00 83 83 00JX Nippon Oil Mizushima A 00 00 117 233 00 00Tonen General Wakayama 00 00 00 69 92 00
00 00 117 385 175 00FCFC Aroma No 2 Mailiao 83 250 00 00 00 00CPC No 6 Kaohsiung 40 00 20 80 20 00CPC No3 Kaoshiung 00 00 00 00 83 55
123 250 20 80 103 55123 396 283 822 636 55
Est TOL consumption loss from KR
Est TOL consumption loss from TW
Est TOL production loss from KR
Total est consumption loss from NE Asia
Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia
CONSUMPTION (mt)
PRODUCTION (mt)
Est TOL consumption loss from JPN
Est TOL production loss from JPN
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUlsan Aromatics Center TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 1000 500 00SKGC TDP Incheon 00 00 00 83 42 00LG Chem H D A (shut since Jan) Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38
38 38 38 1122 580 38Taiyo Oil TDP cut rate only Kikuma 42 07 00 00 00 00MSNC TDI (shut since April) Omuta 65 65 65 65 65 65
107 72 65 65 65 65145 110 103 1187 645 103
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSKGC Incheon 00 00 00 133 67 00
00 00 00 133 67 00Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 00 00 108 108 00 00JFEC Chiba 00 00 14 42 00 00
00 00 122 150 00 00CPC No 7 Kaohsiung 00 00 00 27 108 00CPC No 3 Kaohsiung 110 00 00 00 00 00
110 00 00 27 108 00110 00 122 310 175 00
Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia
PRODUCTION (mt)
CONSUMPTION (mt)
Est TOL consumption loss from KR
Est TOL consumption loss from JPNTotal est consumption loss from NE Asia
Est TOL production loss from KR
Est TOL production loss from JPN
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016
Qty
in to
nnes
Total est consumption loss from NE Asia Total est production loss from NE AsiaSource ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45
Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance
Source ICIS
bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016
bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread
bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption
bull Improvements in TOL blend values
bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading
bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer
bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers
bull Other competitively priced blendstocks
bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL
bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China
TOL supply
TOL demand
Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors
wwwiciscom 46
Drivers of benzene trade flow
wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47
-60-40-200204060
500550600650700750800850900
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea
China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016
020000400006000080000
100000120000140000160000180000200000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Tonn
es
Others
MiddleEastThailand
Malaysia
Taiwan
Japan
SouthKorea
China imports
Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand
Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance
Strong appetite for imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48
Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
Pric
e ($
tonn
e)
Tonn
es
Shore tank inventories
E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity
2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite
Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains
Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49
-80-60-40-20020406080100
500550600650700750800850900950
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15
Tonn
es
OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea
Imports from Asia increase
Imports lower due to higher China prices
S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015
Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates
US imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50
Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600Ja
n-14
Feb-
14M
ar-1
4A
pr-1
4M
ay-1
4Ju
n-14
Jul-1
4A
ug-1
4Se
p-14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Dec
-14
Jan-
15Fe
b-15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
May
-15
Jun-
15Ju
l-15
Aug
-15
Sep-
15O
ct-1
5N
ov-1
5D
ec-1
5Ja
n-16
Feb-
16M
ar-1
6A
pr-1
6
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)Naphtha-Benzene
Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene
$346t $193t $230t
wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51
S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32
Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300
SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15
YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37
2015 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25
S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25
SK Global Chem Incheon 200
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16
OthersTaiwanChinaUS
S Korea exports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52
Outlook increased supply likely to head to China
Source ICIS industry
Company Location BZ Start up period
Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016
Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16
Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos
(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul
Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16
Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16
Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16
Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017
Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex
Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017
Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017
KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017
Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017
Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726
Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322
Product Company Location Capacity(kta)
BZ usage Start up period
SM
Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16
Donghao China 300 240 May-16
Phenol
PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16
Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16
Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17
PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017
Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017
CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17
CPL
Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16
China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16
Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16
MDI
Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017
Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017
Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017
Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972
Consumption within China in 2016 637 655
wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53
Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season
S Korea 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75
BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0
S Korea 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5
KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26
S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13
BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3
Japan 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36
Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12
BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0
Japan 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23
Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24
JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24
BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17
Source ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54
BZ demandBZ supply
bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China
bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ
bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene
bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units
bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher
bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure
bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed
bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand
Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55
Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom
Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom
Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom
Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom
wwwiciscom 56
Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets
Pricing information
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Request your free sample report gtgt
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wwwiciscom 57
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wwwiciscom 1919Source Industry
2016 ethylene production losses from cracker turnarounds largely in Q2-Q3 overall losses down
34 YoY
wwwiciscom 2020Source Industry
Net losses after including +70kta at Asahi-Mitsubishi JV cracker
Output losses higher than 2015 after factoring in Shellrsquos Singapore cracker outage Asahirsquos cracker closure
wwwiciscom 2121Source Industry
Japan becomes structurally tighter
wwwiciscom 2222Source Industry
S Korearsquos exports likely to stabilise at low levels of around 650kt in 2016 after falling for two years
wwwiciscom 2323
End 2015-2016 ethylene capacity expansions in AsiaMideast
Saudi+1800kta
India+3270kta
Iran+2000kta Japan
+70ktaChina+1615kta
Source Industry
Total 9015 kta
Indonesia+260kta
wwwiciscom 2424Source Industry
Cracker expansions concentrated in IndiaMideast mostly integrated
Company Location
C2 capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr) Start-up schedule
Chandra Asri Cilegon Indonesia +260 to 860 Dec 2015Asahi Kasei Mitsubishi Chemical Ethylene Corp Mizushima Japan +70 to 570 1 Apr 2016GAIL Auraiya India 450 400 PE End Feb 2016Brahmaputra Cracker and Polymer Ltd (BCPL) Lepetkata Assam India 220 220 HDPELLDPE End Q1 2016
ONGC Petro Additions (OPaL) Dahej Gujarat India 1100 340 HDPE 720HDPELLDPE Late Q2 2016
Reliance Jamnagar India 1500 750 MEG 550 LLDPE 450 LDPE End 2016
Sadara Chemical Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia 1500 350 LDPE 1080 solution PE Q2mid 2016 at earliest
Petro Rabigh Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia +300 to 1600 150 LDPEEVA 75 EPDM Apr 2016 (cracker only)
Kavian Petrochemical Bushehr Iran 1000Supply to domestic plants via west pipeline H2 20162017
Arvand Petrochemical Gachsaran Iran 1000Feeds own vinyls plants+pipeline customers H2 20162017
Total C27400
wwwiciscom 2525
Expansions in China centred on integrated coal-based projects
Source Industry
Company Location Facility
C2 capacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstreamcapacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr
Start-upschedule
Shenhua Yulin Shenmu Shaanxi MTO 300 300 PE Dec 2015Inner Mongolia ChinaCoal Mengda New Energy amp Chemical Industry
Erdos Inner Mongolia CTO 300
300HDPELLDPE Apr 2016
Shenhua Xinjiang Urumqi Xinjiang CTO 320 320 LDPE Late Q2 2016
Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Golmud Qinghai CTO 160 300 PVC Q3 2016
Fund (Changzhou) Energy amp Chemical Changzhou Jiangsu MTO 165 Q3 2016
Jiangsu Sailboat PetrochemicalLianyungang Jiangsu MTO 370
300 EVALDPE 180 EO 20 MEG Q4 2016
Total C21615 Will supply to Changzhou Dohowrsquos new 300kta SM plant
wwwiciscom 2626Source Industry
More capacity increases at crackers in NESE Asia in 2017
Company Location
C2 capacityadditions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Completion schedule
Korea Petrochemical Industry Co (KPIC)
Onsan South Korea +330 to 800 Mid 2017
Lotte Chemical TitanPasir Gudang Malaysia 90 H1 2017
CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals (CSPC)
Huizhou Guangdong China 1000
150 EO 480 EG400 HDPE 300 LLDPE 700 SM End 20172018
Total C2 1420
wwwiciscom 27Source Industry
Chinarsquos ethylene import demand in 2016 could increase to around 1550-1600kt from 2015rsquos 1516kt
wwwiciscom 2828
Arbitrage amp Mideast cargoes help offset regional supply shortfalls around 500-565kt expected in 2016
Source Industry
Saudi 170-175kt
US 130-140kt
Europe 200-250kt
Projected spot supply excludes term cargoes
wwwiciscom 29
US ethane-based derivative expansions ndash an emerging threat
wwwiciscom 30
Company LocationC2 capacity (rsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream (lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Start-up schedule
Chevron Phillips ChemicalCedar Bayou Texas 1500
500 Bimodal HDPE 500 mLLDPE at Sweeny Mid 2017
Dow Chemical Freeport Texas 1500400 ELITE PE 350 LDPE 320 elastomers 200 EPDM H1 2017
ExxonMobil Chemical Baytown Texas 1500650x2 mLLDPE plus LLDPE at Mont Belvieu H2 2017
Formosa PlasticsPoint Comfort Texas 1590
525 PE unspec 6255 LDPE1000 MEG 20172018
Occidental ChemicalMexichem Ingleside Texas 544 Feed into existing 1050 VCM Q1 2017
SasolLake Charles Louisiana 1500
450 LDPE 450 LLDPE 300EOEG 300 ethoxylatesdetergent alcohols 2018
Total C28134 Total PE 51005
2017-2018 US ethylene amp derivatives projects country to become major PE exporter
Source ICIS Chemical Business
wwwiciscom 31
Chinarsquos PE deficit to continue
wwwiciscom 32wwwiciscom 32
Asia ethylene market to remain tight in 2016
Low-cost US PE exports likely to begin in late 2017 operations of naphtha-based integrated producers in Asia may be impacted
Conclusion
wwwiciscom 33
Asiarsquos toluene and benzene trade flows
wwwiciscom 34
Drivers of Asiarsquos toluene trade flow
wwwiciscom 35wwwiciscom 35
Asiarsquos TOL prices still tracks PX but relationship may weaken on narrower TDP spreads wider toluene-naphtha gap
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
160002
-Jan
-201
422
-Jan
-201
412
-Feb
-201
404
-Mar
-201
424
-Mar
-201
411
-Apr
-201
401
-May
-201
421
-May
-201
410
-Jun
-201
430
-Jun
-201
418
-Jul
-201
407
-Aug
-201
427
-Aug
-201
416
-Sep
-201
406
-Oct
-201
424
-Oct
-201
413
-Nov
-201
403
-Dec
-201
423
-Dec
-201
421
-Jan
-201
510
-Feb
-201
504
-Mar
-201
524
-Mar
-201
513
-Apr
-201
504
-May
-201
522
-May
-201
511
-Jun
-201
501
-Jul
-201
521
-Jul
-201
511
-Aug
-201
531
-Aug
-201
518
-Sep
-201
508
-Oct
-201
528
-Oct
-201
517
-Nov
-201
507
-Dec
-201
504
-Jan
-201
622
-Jan
-201
615
-Feb
-201
604
-Mar
-201
624
-Mar
-201
6
TDP spread (U
SDtonne)
USD
tonn
e
TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Toluene FOB K PX CFR CN
CF 094
CF 095
CF = correlation factor
CF 092
CF= 093
Healthy margins prevailed in 2014 supporting the closer relationship between PX and TOL prices
Margins turned largely negative in 2015 weakening the relationship slightly Strong blend value (BV) of TOL had larger impact on prices
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 36wwwiciscom 36
Wider toluene-naphtha spread since end-2015 increased toluene selling impetus instead of downstream usage allocation
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400Price spread (U
SDtonne)
USD
tonn
e
Toluene-Naphtha spread Naphtha CFR Japan Toluene FOB South Korea
Heavy speculation low Chinese + Indian inventory healthy PX spread led to widened spread in Q1 2016
Price increases supported by start-up of UAC higher usage of TOL for TDP units in addition to summer blending season
Breakeven level
Ave = 230Ave = 170Ave = 170
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 37wwwiciscom 37
TOL heavily placed in blending pool in 2015 capping op rates of downstream TDPs 2016 situation may be reversed
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
USD
tonn
e
Toluene blend value Toluene FOB Korea prices
95-TOL CF= 090
Strong TOL BV in H1 of 2014 results in the price support from gasoline blending strengthening relationship between the two
FOB K prices consistently higher than BV difficult to find demand from blending pool
95-TOL CF= 06895-TOL CF= 090
TOL BV surpasses TOL FOB K making it possible to be placed into blending pool for most of 2015
CF = correlation factorSource ICIS
wwwiciscom 38wwwiciscom 38
Chinese inventories have heavy influence on buying interest Q1 shortage supported sellersrsquo decision to offload more TOL
Ave = 103kt Ave = 903kt Ave = 89kt
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
USD
tonne0
00 to
nnes
east China south China CFR China price Import parity price of CNY cargoes
Strong demand from gasoline blending sector and cargo delays result in 3-year low inventories
Period of strong demand
Previously overbought slow offtake after LNY
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 39
S Korearsquos importexport position for TOL dependent on TDP spreads switch in production strategies in Q1 2016
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
50
100
150
200
25003
-Jan
-201
424
-Jan
-201
414
-Feb
-201
407
-Mar
-201
428
-Mar
-201
418
-Apr
-201
409
-May
-201
430
-May
-201
420
-Jun
-201
411
-Jul
-201
401
-Aug
-201
422
-Aug
-201
412
-Sep
-201
403
-Oct
-201
424
-Oct
-201
414
-Nov
-201
405
-Dec
-201
426
-Dec
-201
423
-Jan
-201
513
-Feb
-201
506
-Mar
-201
527
-Mar
-201
517
-Apr
-201
508
-May
-201
529
-May
-201
519
-Jun
-201
510
-Jul
-201
531
-Jul
-201
521
-Aug
-201
511
-Sep
-201
502
-Oct
-201
523
-Oct
-201
513
-Nov
-201
504
-Dec
-201
525
-Dec
-201
522
-Jan
-201
612
-Feb
-201
604
-Mar
-201
625
-Mar
-201
615
-Apr
-201
6
Qty in lsquo000 tonnes
USD
tonn
e
TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Exports from S Korea Imports to S Korea
Start up of UACrsquos TDP
Slight strategy switch as low Chinese inventories strong naphtha-TOL spread since Q1 leads to stronger TOL selling interest
Overall drop in TDP spreads from mid-2014 results in selling interest switch to net exporter
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 40
Heavier downstream unit turnarounds and production adjustments led to more S Korea-origin exports
H1 2015 H1 2016
0
20
40
60
80
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Qty
in 0
00 to
nnes
South Korea exports
China Taiwan Vietnam US Japan Singapore India Others
Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 13 00Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 00 00 18 00Hyundai Cosmo TDP Daesan 00 00 00 50 200 00S Oil No 2 TDP Onsan 00 00 00 200 00 00
00 00 00 250 231 00Producer LocationLG Chem Daesan 00 00 23 23 00 00YNCC No 1 Yeosu 00 00 00 00 50 50Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 00 00 00 08 63 00Lotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 23 00 00S Oil No 2 Onsan 00 00 124 267 00 00SKGC Incheon 67 00 00 00 00 00
67 00 147 321 113 50
Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)
Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)
Source ICIS
Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 00 87Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 27 00 00 00OCI TDI Kunsan 00 06 00 00 00 00GSCX STDP Yeosu 00 00 00 583 82 00Hanwha Total TDP Daesan 00 00 222 278 00 00SKGC TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 00 49 208LG H D A Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38
38 45 288 899 169 333Producer Location Hanwha Total Daesan 00 00 153 191 00 00GSCX Yeosu 00 00 00 174 49 00Lotte Chem Yeosu 00 00 00 47 16 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 00 78 333YNCC Yeosu 00 00 33 17 00 00
00 00 186 428 143 333
Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)
Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)
wwwiciscom 41wwwiciscom 41
NE Asia and SE Asia exports to China rise since H2 2015 on healthy netbacks strong demand
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
USD
tonne
Qty
in 0
00 to
nnes
Others
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
Import parity of domesticcargoesFOB South Korea prices
Increase in selling to China because of healthy netbacks weak TDP spread
Narrow gap results in fewer imports in line with FOB K price support from PX
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 42wwwiciscom 42
Exports from Asia to US market sporadic highly dependent on price gap gasoline blending season and Asia demand
0
10
20
30
40
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250Q
ty in 000 tonnesU
SDto
nne
Price gap (Asia prompt vs US forward) Exports from Asia to US
Open arbitrage opportunities result in increase of Asia exports
Consistent upward trend leads to selling interest
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 43wwwiciscom 43
India TOL imports mainly from SE Asia and Iran
46
23
17
37
4
2014
Singapore Thailand Iran S Korea Europe Others
2015
50
24
9
37
7
Source customs data
Total= 288kt Total= 288kt
wwwiciscom 44wwwiciscom 44
NE Asia TOL supply could outstrip demand in H2 2016 on heavier downstream turnarounds permanent shutdowns
H2 2015 H2 2016
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S Oil Onsan old TDP Onsan 00 42 42 00 00 00
00 42 42 00 00 00FCFC Aroma 2 TDP Mailiao 67 200 00 00 00 00
67 200 00 00 00 00JX Nippon Oil TDP Mizushima A 00 00 75 75 00 00
00 00 75 75 00 0067 242 117 75 00 00
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecLotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 73 25 00KPIC Ulsan 00 00 00 83 00 00S Oil No 1 Onsan 00 146 146 00 00 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 167 333 00OCI Yeosu 00 00 00 33 00 00
00 146 146 357 358 00Mitsui Chemicals Chiba 00 00 00 83 83 00JX Nippon Oil Mizushima A 00 00 117 233 00 00Tonen General Wakayama 00 00 00 69 92 00
00 00 117 385 175 00FCFC Aroma No 2 Mailiao 83 250 00 00 00 00CPC No 6 Kaohsiung 40 00 20 80 20 00CPC No3 Kaoshiung 00 00 00 00 83 55
123 250 20 80 103 55123 396 283 822 636 55
Est TOL consumption loss from KR
Est TOL consumption loss from TW
Est TOL production loss from KR
Total est consumption loss from NE Asia
Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia
CONSUMPTION (mt)
PRODUCTION (mt)
Est TOL consumption loss from JPN
Est TOL production loss from JPN
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUlsan Aromatics Center TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 1000 500 00SKGC TDP Incheon 00 00 00 83 42 00LG Chem H D A (shut since Jan) Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38
38 38 38 1122 580 38Taiyo Oil TDP cut rate only Kikuma 42 07 00 00 00 00MSNC TDI (shut since April) Omuta 65 65 65 65 65 65
107 72 65 65 65 65145 110 103 1187 645 103
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSKGC Incheon 00 00 00 133 67 00
00 00 00 133 67 00Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 00 00 108 108 00 00JFEC Chiba 00 00 14 42 00 00
00 00 122 150 00 00CPC No 7 Kaohsiung 00 00 00 27 108 00CPC No 3 Kaohsiung 110 00 00 00 00 00
110 00 00 27 108 00110 00 122 310 175 00
Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia
PRODUCTION (mt)
CONSUMPTION (mt)
Est TOL consumption loss from KR
Est TOL consumption loss from JPNTotal est consumption loss from NE Asia
Est TOL production loss from KR
Est TOL production loss from JPN
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016
Qty
in to
nnes
Total est consumption loss from NE Asia Total est production loss from NE AsiaSource ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45
Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance
Source ICIS
bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016
bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread
bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption
bull Improvements in TOL blend values
bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading
bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer
bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers
bull Other competitively priced blendstocks
bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL
bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China
TOL supply
TOL demand
Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors
wwwiciscom 46
Drivers of benzene trade flow
wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47
-60-40-200204060
500550600650700750800850900
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea
China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016
020000400006000080000
100000120000140000160000180000200000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Tonn
es
Others
MiddleEastThailand
Malaysia
Taiwan
Japan
SouthKorea
China imports
Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand
Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance
Strong appetite for imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48
Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
Pric
e ($
tonn
e)
Tonn
es
Shore tank inventories
E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity
2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite
Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains
Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49
-80-60-40-20020406080100
500550600650700750800850900950
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15
Tonn
es
OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea
Imports from Asia increase
Imports lower due to higher China prices
S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015
Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates
US imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50
Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600Ja
n-14
Feb-
14M
ar-1
4A
pr-1
4M
ay-1
4Ju
n-14
Jul-1
4A
ug-1
4Se
p-14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Dec
-14
Jan-
15Fe
b-15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
May
-15
Jun-
15Ju
l-15
Aug
-15
Sep-
15O
ct-1
5N
ov-1
5D
ec-1
5Ja
n-16
Feb-
16M
ar-1
6A
pr-1
6
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)Naphtha-Benzene
Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene
$346t $193t $230t
wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51
S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32
Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300
SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15
YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37
2015 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25
S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25
SK Global Chem Incheon 200
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16
OthersTaiwanChinaUS
S Korea exports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52
Outlook increased supply likely to head to China
Source ICIS industry
Company Location BZ Start up period
Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016
Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16
Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos
(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul
Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16
Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16
Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16
Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017
Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex
Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017
Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017
KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017
Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017
Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726
Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322
Product Company Location Capacity(kta)
BZ usage Start up period
SM
Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16
Donghao China 300 240 May-16
Phenol
PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16
Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16
Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17
PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017
Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017
CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17
CPL
Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16
China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16
Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16
MDI
Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017
Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017
Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017
Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972
Consumption within China in 2016 637 655
wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53
Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season
S Korea 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75
BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0
S Korea 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5
KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26
S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13
BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3
Japan 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36
Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12
BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0
Japan 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23
Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24
JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24
BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17
Source ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54
BZ demandBZ supply
bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China
bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ
bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene
bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units
bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher
bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure
bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed
bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand
Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55
Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom
Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom
Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom
Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom
wwwiciscom 56
Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets
Pricing information
- ButadieneC4s- Ethylene
Request your free sample report gtgt
We produce reliable price assessments and analyses covering Asian aromatics and olefins markets including price histories and a 12-month rolling price forecast enabling you to understand price drivers and settle your contract prices more confidently Our pricing coverage includes
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wwwiciscom 57
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wwwiciscom 2020Source Industry
Net losses after including +70kta at Asahi-Mitsubishi JV cracker
Output losses higher than 2015 after factoring in Shellrsquos Singapore cracker outage Asahirsquos cracker closure
wwwiciscom 2121Source Industry
Japan becomes structurally tighter
wwwiciscom 2222Source Industry
S Korearsquos exports likely to stabilise at low levels of around 650kt in 2016 after falling for two years
wwwiciscom 2323
End 2015-2016 ethylene capacity expansions in AsiaMideast
Saudi+1800kta
India+3270kta
Iran+2000kta Japan
+70ktaChina+1615kta
Source Industry
Total 9015 kta
Indonesia+260kta
wwwiciscom 2424Source Industry
Cracker expansions concentrated in IndiaMideast mostly integrated
Company Location
C2 capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr) Start-up schedule
Chandra Asri Cilegon Indonesia +260 to 860 Dec 2015Asahi Kasei Mitsubishi Chemical Ethylene Corp Mizushima Japan +70 to 570 1 Apr 2016GAIL Auraiya India 450 400 PE End Feb 2016Brahmaputra Cracker and Polymer Ltd (BCPL) Lepetkata Assam India 220 220 HDPELLDPE End Q1 2016
ONGC Petro Additions (OPaL) Dahej Gujarat India 1100 340 HDPE 720HDPELLDPE Late Q2 2016
Reliance Jamnagar India 1500 750 MEG 550 LLDPE 450 LDPE End 2016
Sadara Chemical Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia 1500 350 LDPE 1080 solution PE Q2mid 2016 at earliest
Petro Rabigh Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia +300 to 1600 150 LDPEEVA 75 EPDM Apr 2016 (cracker only)
Kavian Petrochemical Bushehr Iran 1000Supply to domestic plants via west pipeline H2 20162017
Arvand Petrochemical Gachsaran Iran 1000Feeds own vinyls plants+pipeline customers H2 20162017
Total C27400
wwwiciscom 2525
Expansions in China centred on integrated coal-based projects
Source Industry
Company Location Facility
C2 capacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstreamcapacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr
Start-upschedule
Shenhua Yulin Shenmu Shaanxi MTO 300 300 PE Dec 2015Inner Mongolia ChinaCoal Mengda New Energy amp Chemical Industry
Erdos Inner Mongolia CTO 300
300HDPELLDPE Apr 2016
Shenhua Xinjiang Urumqi Xinjiang CTO 320 320 LDPE Late Q2 2016
Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Golmud Qinghai CTO 160 300 PVC Q3 2016
Fund (Changzhou) Energy amp Chemical Changzhou Jiangsu MTO 165 Q3 2016
Jiangsu Sailboat PetrochemicalLianyungang Jiangsu MTO 370
300 EVALDPE 180 EO 20 MEG Q4 2016
Total C21615 Will supply to Changzhou Dohowrsquos new 300kta SM plant
wwwiciscom 2626Source Industry
More capacity increases at crackers in NESE Asia in 2017
Company Location
C2 capacityadditions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Completion schedule
Korea Petrochemical Industry Co (KPIC)
Onsan South Korea +330 to 800 Mid 2017
Lotte Chemical TitanPasir Gudang Malaysia 90 H1 2017
CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals (CSPC)
Huizhou Guangdong China 1000
150 EO 480 EG400 HDPE 300 LLDPE 700 SM End 20172018
Total C2 1420
wwwiciscom 27Source Industry
Chinarsquos ethylene import demand in 2016 could increase to around 1550-1600kt from 2015rsquos 1516kt
wwwiciscom 2828
Arbitrage amp Mideast cargoes help offset regional supply shortfalls around 500-565kt expected in 2016
Source Industry
Saudi 170-175kt
US 130-140kt
Europe 200-250kt
Projected spot supply excludes term cargoes
wwwiciscom 29
US ethane-based derivative expansions ndash an emerging threat
wwwiciscom 30
Company LocationC2 capacity (rsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream (lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Start-up schedule
Chevron Phillips ChemicalCedar Bayou Texas 1500
500 Bimodal HDPE 500 mLLDPE at Sweeny Mid 2017
Dow Chemical Freeport Texas 1500400 ELITE PE 350 LDPE 320 elastomers 200 EPDM H1 2017
ExxonMobil Chemical Baytown Texas 1500650x2 mLLDPE plus LLDPE at Mont Belvieu H2 2017
Formosa PlasticsPoint Comfort Texas 1590
525 PE unspec 6255 LDPE1000 MEG 20172018
Occidental ChemicalMexichem Ingleside Texas 544 Feed into existing 1050 VCM Q1 2017
SasolLake Charles Louisiana 1500
450 LDPE 450 LLDPE 300EOEG 300 ethoxylatesdetergent alcohols 2018
Total C28134 Total PE 51005
2017-2018 US ethylene amp derivatives projects country to become major PE exporter
Source ICIS Chemical Business
wwwiciscom 31
Chinarsquos PE deficit to continue
wwwiciscom 32wwwiciscom 32
Asia ethylene market to remain tight in 2016
Low-cost US PE exports likely to begin in late 2017 operations of naphtha-based integrated producers in Asia may be impacted
Conclusion
wwwiciscom 33
Asiarsquos toluene and benzene trade flows
wwwiciscom 34
Drivers of Asiarsquos toluene trade flow
wwwiciscom 35wwwiciscom 35
Asiarsquos TOL prices still tracks PX but relationship may weaken on narrower TDP spreads wider toluene-naphtha gap
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
160002
-Jan
-201
422
-Jan
-201
412
-Feb
-201
404
-Mar
-201
424
-Mar
-201
411
-Apr
-201
401
-May
-201
421
-May
-201
410
-Jun
-201
430
-Jun
-201
418
-Jul
-201
407
-Aug
-201
427
-Aug
-201
416
-Sep
-201
406
-Oct
-201
424
-Oct
-201
413
-Nov
-201
403
-Dec
-201
423
-Dec
-201
421
-Jan
-201
510
-Feb
-201
504
-Mar
-201
524
-Mar
-201
513
-Apr
-201
504
-May
-201
522
-May
-201
511
-Jun
-201
501
-Jul
-201
521
-Jul
-201
511
-Aug
-201
531
-Aug
-201
518
-Sep
-201
508
-Oct
-201
528
-Oct
-201
517
-Nov
-201
507
-Dec
-201
504
-Jan
-201
622
-Jan
-201
615
-Feb
-201
604
-Mar
-201
624
-Mar
-201
6
TDP spread (U
SDtonne)
USD
tonn
e
TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Toluene FOB K PX CFR CN
CF 094
CF 095
CF = correlation factor
CF 092
CF= 093
Healthy margins prevailed in 2014 supporting the closer relationship between PX and TOL prices
Margins turned largely negative in 2015 weakening the relationship slightly Strong blend value (BV) of TOL had larger impact on prices
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 36wwwiciscom 36
Wider toluene-naphtha spread since end-2015 increased toluene selling impetus instead of downstream usage allocation
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400Price spread (U
SDtonne)
USD
tonn
e
Toluene-Naphtha spread Naphtha CFR Japan Toluene FOB South Korea
Heavy speculation low Chinese + Indian inventory healthy PX spread led to widened spread in Q1 2016
Price increases supported by start-up of UAC higher usage of TOL for TDP units in addition to summer blending season
Breakeven level
Ave = 230Ave = 170Ave = 170
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 37wwwiciscom 37
TOL heavily placed in blending pool in 2015 capping op rates of downstream TDPs 2016 situation may be reversed
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
USD
tonn
e
Toluene blend value Toluene FOB Korea prices
95-TOL CF= 090
Strong TOL BV in H1 of 2014 results in the price support from gasoline blending strengthening relationship between the two
FOB K prices consistently higher than BV difficult to find demand from blending pool
95-TOL CF= 06895-TOL CF= 090
TOL BV surpasses TOL FOB K making it possible to be placed into blending pool for most of 2015
CF = correlation factorSource ICIS
wwwiciscom 38wwwiciscom 38
Chinese inventories have heavy influence on buying interest Q1 shortage supported sellersrsquo decision to offload more TOL
Ave = 103kt Ave = 903kt Ave = 89kt
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
USD
tonne0
00 to
nnes
east China south China CFR China price Import parity price of CNY cargoes
Strong demand from gasoline blending sector and cargo delays result in 3-year low inventories
Period of strong demand
Previously overbought slow offtake after LNY
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 39
S Korearsquos importexport position for TOL dependent on TDP spreads switch in production strategies in Q1 2016
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
50
100
150
200
25003
-Jan
-201
424
-Jan
-201
414
-Feb
-201
407
-Mar
-201
428
-Mar
-201
418
-Apr
-201
409
-May
-201
430
-May
-201
420
-Jun
-201
411
-Jul
-201
401
-Aug
-201
422
-Aug
-201
412
-Sep
-201
403
-Oct
-201
424
-Oct
-201
414
-Nov
-201
405
-Dec
-201
426
-Dec
-201
423
-Jan
-201
513
-Feb
-201
506
-Mar
-201
527
-Mar
-201
517
-Apr
-201
508
-May
-201
529
-May
-201
519
-Jun
-201
510
-Jul
-201
531
-Jul
-201
521
-Aug
-201
511
-Sep
-201
502
-Oct
-201
523
-Oct
-201
513
-Nov
-201
504
-Dec
-201
525
-Dec
-201
522
-Jan
-201
612
-Feb
-201
604
-Mar
-201
625
-Mar
-201
615
-Apr
-201
6
Qty in lsquo000 tonnes
USD
tonn
e
TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Exports from S Korea Imports to S Korea
Start up of UACrsquos TDP
Slight strategy switch as low Chinese inventories strong naphtha-TOL spread since Q1 leads to stronger TOL selling interest
Overall drop in TDP spreads from mid-2014 results in selling interest switch to net exporter
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 40
Heavier downstream unit turnarounds and production adjustments led to more S Korea-origin exports
H1 2015 H1 2016
0
20
40
60
80
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Qty
in 0
00 to
nnes
South Korea exports
China Taiwan Vietnam US Japan Singapore India Others
Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 13 00Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 00 00 18 00Hyundai Cosmo TDP Daesan 00 00 00 50 200 00S Oil No 2 TDP Onsan 00 00 00 200 00 00
00 00 00 250 231 00Producer LocationLG Chem Daesan 00 00 23 23 00 00YNCC No 1 Yeosu 00 00 00 00 50 50Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 00 00 00 08 63 00Lotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 23 00 00S Oil No 2 Onsan 00 00 124 267 00 00SKGC Incheon 67 00 00 00 00 00
67 00 147 321 113 50
Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)
Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)
Source ICIS
Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 00 87Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 27 00 00 00OCI TDI Kunsan 00 06 00 00 00 00GSCX STDP Yeosu 00 00 00 583 82 00Hanwha Total TDP Daesan 00 00 222 278 00 00SKGC TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 00 49 208LG H D A Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38
38 45 288 899 169 333Producer Location Hanwha Total Daesan 00 00 153 191 00 00GSCX Yeosu 00 00 00 174 49 00Lotte Chem Yeosu 00 00 00 47 16 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 00 78 333YNCC Yeosu 00 00 33 17 00 00
00 00 186 428 143 333
Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)
Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)
wwwiciscom 41wwwiciscom 41
NE Asia and SE Asia exports to China rise since H2 2015 on healthy netbacks strong demand
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
USD
tonne
Qty
in 0
00 to
nnes
Others
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
Import parity of domesticcargoesFOB South Korea prices
Increase in selling to China because of healthy netbacks weak TDP spread
Narrow gap results in fewer imports in line with FOB K price support from PX
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 42wwwiciscom 42
Exports from Asia to US market sporadic highly dependent on price gap gasoline blending season and Asia demand
0
10
20
30
40
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250Q
ty in 000 tonnesU
SDto
nne
Price gap (Asia prompt vs US forward) Exports from Asia to US
Open arbitrage opportunities result in increase of Asia exports
Consistent upward trend leads to selling interest
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 43wwwiciscom 43
India TOL imports mainly from SE Asia and Iran
46
23
17
37
4
2014
Singapore Thailand Iran S Korea Europe Others
2015
50
24
9
37
7
Source customs data
Total= 288kt Total= 288kt
wwwiciscom 44wwwiciscom 44
NE Asia TOL supply could outstrip demand in H2 2016 on heavier downstream turnarounds permanent shutdowns
H2 2015 H2 2016
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S Oil Onsan old TDP Onsan 00 42 42 00 00 00
00 42 42 00 00 00FCFC Aroma 2 TDP Mailiao 67 200 00 00 00 00
67 200 00 00 00 00JX Nippon Oil TDP Mizushima A 00 00 75 75 00 00
00 00 75 75 00 0067 242 117 75 00 00
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecLotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 73 25 00KPIC Ulsan 00 00 00 83 00 00S Oil No 1 Onsan 00 146 146 00 00 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 167 333 00OCI Yeosu 00 00 00 33 00 00
00 146 146 357 358 00Mitsui Chemicals Chiba 00 00 00 83 83 00JX Nippon Oil Mizushima A 00 00 117 233 00 00Tonen General Wakayama 00 00 00 69 92 00
00 00 117 385 175 00FCFC Aroma No 2 Mailiao 83 250 00 00 00 00CPC No 6 Kaohsiung 40 00 20 80 20 00CPC No3 Kaoshiung 00 00 00 00 83 55
123 250 20 80 103 55123 396 283 822 636 55
Est TOL consumption loss from KR
Est TOL consumption loss from TW
Est TOL production loss from KR
Total est consumption loss from NE Asia
Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia
CONSUMPTION (mt)
PRODUCTION (mt)
Est TOL consumption loss from JPN
Est TOL production loss from JPN
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUlsan Aromatics Center TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 1000 500 00SKGC TDP Incheon 00 00 00 83 42 00LG Chem H D A (shut since Jan) Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38
38 38 38 1122 580 38Taiyo Oil TDP cut rate only Kikuma 42 07 00 00 00 00MSNC TDI (shut since April) Omuta 65 65 65 65 65 65
107 72 65 65 65 65145 110 103 1187 645 103
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSKGC Incheon 00 00 00 133 67 00
00 00 00 133 67 00Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 00 00 108 108 00 00JFEC Chiba 00 00 14 42 00 00
00 00 122 150 00 00CPC No 7 Kaohsiung 00 00 00 27 108 00CPC No 3 Kaohsiung 110 00 00 00 00 00
110 00 00 27 108 00110 00 122 310 175 00
Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia
PRODUCTION (mt)
CONSUMPTION (mt)
Est TOL consumption loss from KR
Est TOL consumption loss from JPNTotal est consumption loss from NE Asia
Est TOL production loss from KR
Est TOL production loss from JPN
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016
Qty
in to
nnes
Total est consumption loss from NE Asia Total est production loss from NE AsiaSource ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45
Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance
Source ICIS
bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016
bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread
bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption
bull Improvements in TOL blend values
bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading
bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer
bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers
bull Other competitively priced blendstocks
bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL
bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China
TOL supply
TOL demand
Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors
wwwiciscom 46
Drivers of benzene trade flow
wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47
-60-40-200204060
500550600650700750800850900
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea
China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016
020000400006000080000
100000120000140000160000180000200000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Tonn
es
Others
MiddleEastThailand
Malaysia
Taiwan
Japan
SouthKorea
China imports
Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand
Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance
Strong appetite for imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48
Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
Pric
e ($
tonn
e)
Tonn
es
Shore tank inventories
E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity
2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite
Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains
Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49
-80-60-40-20020406080100
500550600650700750800850900950
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15
Tonn
es
OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea
Imports from Asia increase
Imports lower due to higher China prices
S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015
Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates
US imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50
Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600Ja
n-14
Feb-
14M
ar-1
4A
pr-1
4M
ay-1
4Ju
n-14
Jul-1
4A
ug-1
4Se
p-14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Dec
-14
Jan-
15Fe
b-15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
May
-15
Jun-
15Ju
l-15
Aug
-15
Sep-
15O
ct-1
5N
ov-1
5D
ec-1
5Ja
n-16
Feb-
16M
ar-1
6A
pr-1
6
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)Naphtha-Benzene
Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene
$346t $193t $230t
wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51
S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32
Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300
SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15
YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37
2015 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25
S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25
SK Global Chem Incheon 200
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16
OthersTaiwanChinaUS
S Korea exports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52
Outlook increased supply likely to head to China
Source ICIS industry
Company Location BZ Start up period
Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016
Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16
Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos
(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul
Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16
Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16
Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16
Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017
Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex
Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017
Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017
KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017
Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017
Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726
Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322
Product Company Location Capacity(kta)
BZ usage Start up period
SM
Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16
Donghao China 300 240 May-16
Phenol
PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16
Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16
Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17
PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017
Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017
CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17
CPL
Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16
China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16
Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16
MDI
Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017
Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017
Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017
Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972
Consumption within China in 2016 637 655
wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53
Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season
S Korea 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75
BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0
S Korea 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5
KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26
S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13
BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3
Japan 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36
Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12
BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0
Japan 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23
Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24
JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24
BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17
Source ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54
BZ demandBZ supply
bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China
bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ
bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene
bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units
bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher
bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure
bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed
bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand
Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55
Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom
Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom
Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom
Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom
wwwiciscom 56
Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets
Pricing information
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Request your free sample report gtgt
We produce reliable price assessments and analyses covering Asian aromatics and olefins markets including price histories and a 12-month rolling price forecast enabling you to understand price drivers and settle your contract prices more confidently Our pricing coverage includes
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wwwiciscom 57
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wwwiciscom 2121Source Industry
Japan becomes structurally tighter
wwwiciscom 2222Source Industry
S Korearsquos exports likely to stabilise at low levels of around 650kt in 2016 after falling for two years
wwwiciscom 2323
End 2015-2016 ethylene capacity expansions in AsiaMideast
Saudi+1800kta
India+3270kta
Iran+2000kta Japan
+70ktaChina+1615kta
Source Industry
Total 9015 kta
Indonesia+260kta
wwwiciscom 2424Source Industry
Cracker expansions concentrated in IndiaMideast mostly integrated
Company Location
C2 capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr) Start-up schedule
Chandra Asri Cilegon Indonesia +260 to 860 Dec 2015Asahi Kasei Mitsubishi Chemical Ethylene Corp Mizushima Japan +70 to 570 1 Apr 2016GAIL Auraiya India 450 400 PE End Feb 2016Brahmaputra Cracker and Polymer Ltd (BCPL) Lepetkata Assam India 220 220 HDPELLDPE End Q1 2016
ONGC Petro Additions (OPaL) Dahej Gujarat India 1100 340 HDPE 720HDPELLDPE Late Q2 2016
Reliance Jamnagar India 1500 750 MEG 550 LLDPE 450 LDPE End 2016
Sadara Chemical Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia 1500 350 LDPE 1080 solution PE Q2mid 2016 at earliest
Petro Rabigh Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia +300 to 1600 150 LDPEEVA 75 EPDM Apr 2016 (cracker only)
Kavian Petrochemical Bushehr Iran 1000Supply to domestic plants via west pipeline H2 20162017
Arvand Petrochemical Gachsaran Iran 1000Feeds own vinyls plants+pipeline customers H2 20162017
Total C27400
wwwiciscom 2525
Expansions in China centred on integrated coal-based projects
Source Industry
Company Location Facility
C2 capacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstreamcapacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr
Start-upschedule
Shenhua Yulin Shenmu Shaanxi MTO 300 300 PE Dec 2015Inner Mongolia ChinaCoal Mengda New Energy amp Chemical Industry
Erdos Inner Mongolia CTO 300
300HDPELLDPE Apr 2016
Shenhua Xinjiang Urumqi Xinjiang CTO 320 320 LDPE Late Q2 2016
Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Golmud Qinghai CTO 160 300 PVC Q3 2016
Fund (Changzhou) Energy amp Chemical Changzhou Jiangsu MTO 165 Q3 2016
Jiangsu Sailboat PetrochemicalLianyungang Jiangsu MTO 370
300 EVALDPE 180 EO 20 MEG Q4 2016
Total C21615 Will supply to Changzhou Dohowrsquos new 300kta SM plant
wwwiciscom 2626Source Industry
More capacity increases at crackers in NESE Asia in 2017
Company Location
C2 capacityadditions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Completion schedule
Korea Petrochemical Industry Co (KPIC)
Onsan South Korea +330 to 800 Mid 2017
Lotte Chemical TitanPasir Gudang Malaysia 90 H1 2017
CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals (CSPC)
Huizhou Guangdong China 1000
150 EO 480 EG400 HDPE 300 LLDPE 700 SM End 20172018
Total C2 1420
wwwiciscom 27Source Industry
Chinarsquos ethylene import demand in 2016 could increase to around 1550-1600kt from 2015rsquos 1516kt
wwwiciscom 2828
Arbitrage amp Mideast cargoes help offset regional supply shortfalls around 500-565kt expected in 2016
Source Industry
Saudi 170-175kt
US 130-140kt
Europe 200-250kt
Projected spot supply excludes term cargoes
wwwiciscom 29
US ethane-based derivative expansions ndash an emerging threat
wwwiciscom 30
Company LocationC2 capacity (rsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream (lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Start-up schedule
Chevron Phillips ChemicalCedar Bayou Texas 1500
500 Bimodal HDPE 500 mLLDPE at Sweeny Mid 2017
Dow Chemical Freeport Texas 1500400 ELITE PE 350 LDPE 320 elastomers 200 EPDM H1 2017
ExxonMobil Chemical Baytown Texas 1500650x2 mLLDPE plus LLDPE at Mont Belvieu H2 2017
Formosa PlasticsPoint Comfort Texas 1590
525 PE unspec 6255 LDPE1000 MEG 20172018
Occidental ChemicalMexichem Ingleside Texas 544 Feed into existing 1050 VCM Q1 2017
SasolLake Charles Louisiana 1500
450 LDPE 450 LLDPE 300EOEG 300 ethoxylatesdetergent alcohols 2018
Total C28134 Total PE 51005
2017-2018 US ethylene amp derivatives projects country to become major PE exporter
Source ICIS Chemical Business
wwwiciscom 31
Chinarsquos PE deficit to continue
wwwiciscom 32wwwiciscom 32
Asia ethylene market to remain tight in 2016
Low-cost US PE exports likely to begin in late 2017 operations of naphtha-based integrated producers in Asia may be impacted
Conclusion
wwwiciscom 33
Asiarsquos toluene and benzene trade flows
wwwiciscom 34
Drivers of Asiarsquos toluene trade flow
wwwiciscom 35wwwiciscom 35
Asiarsquos TOL prices still tracks PX but relationship may weaken on narrower TDP spreads wider toluene-naphtha gap
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
160002
-Jan
-201
422
-Jan
-201
412
-Feb
-201
404
-Mar
-201
424
-Mar
-201
411
-Apr
-201
401
-May
-201
421
-May
-201
410
-Jun
-201
430
-Jun
-201
418
-Jul
-201
407
-Aug
-201
427
-Aug
-201
416
-Sep
-201
406
-Oct
-201
424
-Oct
-201
413
-Nov
-201
403
-Dec
-201
423
-Dec
-201
421
-Jan
-201
510
-Feb
-201
504
-Mar
-201
524
-Mar
-201
513
-Apr
-201
504
-May
-201
522
-May
-201
511
-Jun
-201
501
-Jul
-201
521
-Jul
-201
511
-Aug
-201
531
-Aug
-201
518
-Sep
-201
508
-Oct
-201
528
-Oct
-201
517
-Nov
-201
507
-Dec
-201
504
-Jan
-201
622
-Jan
-201
615
-Feb
-201
604
-Mar
-201
624
-Mar
-201
6
TDP spread (U
SDtonne)
USD
tonn
e
TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Toluene FOB K PX CFR CN
CF 094
CF 095
CF = correlation factor
CF 092
CF= 093
Healthy margins prevailed in 2014 supporting the closer relationship between PX and TOL prices
Margins turned largely negative in 2015 weakening the relationship slightly Strong blend value (BV) of TOL had larger impact on prices
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 36wwwiciscom 36
Wider toluene-naphtha spread since end-2015 increased toluene selling impetus instead of downstream usage allocation
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400Price spread (U
SDtonne)
USD
tonn
e
Toluene-Naphtha spread Naphtha CFR Japan Toluene FOB South Korea
Heavy speculation low Chinese + Indian inventory healthy PX spread led to widened spread in Q1 2016
Price increases supported by start-up of UAC higher usage of TOL for TDP units in addition to summer blending season
Breakeven level
Ave = 230Ave = 170Ave = 170
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 37wwwiciscom 37
TOL heavily placed in blending pool in 2015 capping op rates of downstream TDPs 2016 situation may be reversed
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
USD
tonn
e
Toluene blend value Toluene FOB Korea prices
95-TOL CF= 090
Strong TOL BV in H1 of 2014 results in the price support from gasoline blending strengthening relationship between the two
FOB K prices consistently higher than BV difficult to find demand from blending pool
95-TOL CF= 06895-TOL CF= 090
TOL BV surpasses TOL FOB K making it possible to be placed into blending pool for most of 2015
CF = correlation factorSource ICIS
wwwiciscom 38wwwiciscom 38
Chinese inventories have heavy influence on buying interest Q1 shortage supported sellersrsquo decision to offload more TOL
Ave = 103kt Ave = 903kt Ave = 89kt
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
USD
tonne0
00 to
nnes
east China south China CFR China price Import parity price of CNY cargoes
Strong demand from gasoline blending sector and cargo delays result in 3-year low inventories
Period of strong demand
Previously overbought slow offtake after LNY
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 39
S Korearsquos importexport position for TOL dependent on TDP spreads switch in production strategies in Q1 2016
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
50
100
150
200
25003
-Jan
-201
424
-Jan
-201
414
-Feb
-201
407
-Mar
-201
428
-Mar
-201
418
-Apr
-201
409
-May
-201
430
-May
-201
420
-Jun
-201
411
-Jul
-201
401
-Aug
-201
422
-Aug
-201
412
-Sep
-201
403
-Oct
-201
424
-Oct
-201
414
-Nov
-201
405
-Dec
-201
426
-Dec
-201
423
-Jan
-201
513
-Feb
-201
506
-Mar
-201
527
-Mar
-201
517
-Apr
-201
508
-May
-201
529
-May
-201
519
-Jun
-201
510
-Jul
-201
531
-Jul
-201
521
-Aug
-201
511
-Sep
-201
502
-Oct
-201
523
-Oct
-201
513
-Nov
-201
504
-Dec
-201
525
-Dec
-201
522
-Jan
-201
612
-Feb
-201
604
-Mar
-201
625
-Mar
-201
615
-Apr
-201
6
Qty in lsquo000 tonnes
USD
tonn
e
TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Exports from S Korea Imports to S Korea
Start up of UACrsquos TDP
Slight strategy switch as low Chinese inventories strong naphtha-TOL spread since Q1 leads to stronger TOL selling interest
Overall drop in TDP spreads from mid-2014 results in selling interest switch to net exporter
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 40
Heavier downstream unit turnarounds and production adjustments led to more S Korea-origin exports
H1 2015 H1 2016
0
20
40
60
80
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Qty
in 0
00 to
nnes
South Korea exports
China Taiwan Vietnam US Japan Singapore India Others
Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 13 00Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 00 00 18 00Hyundai Cosmo TDP Daesan 00 00 00 50 200 00S Oil No 2 TDP Onsan 00 00 00 200 00 00
00 00 00 250 231 00Producer LocationLG Chem Daesan 00 00 23 23 00 00YNCC No 1 Yeosu 00 00 00 00 50 50Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 00 00 00 08 63 00Lotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 23 00 00S Oil No 2 Onsan 00 00 124 267 00 00SKGC Incheon 67 00 00 00 00 00
67 00 147 321 113 50
Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)
Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)
Source ICIS
Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 00 87Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 27 00 00 00OCI TDI Kunsan 00 06 00 00 00 00GSCX STDP Yeosu 00 00 00 583 82 00Hanwha Total TDP Daesan 00 00 222 278 00 00SKGC TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 00 49 208LG H D A Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38
38 45 288 899 169 333Producer Location Hanwha Total Daesan 00 00 153 191 00 00GSCX Yeosu 00 00 00 174 49 00Lotte Chem Yeosu 00 00 00 47 16 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 00 78 333YNCC Yeosu 00 00 33 17 00 00
00 00 186 428 143 333
Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)
Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)
wwwiciscom 41wwwiciscom 41
NE Asia and SE Asia exports to China rise since H2 2015 on healthy netbacks strong demand
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
USD
tonne
Qty
in 0
00 to
nnes
Others
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
Import parity of domesticcargoesFOB South Korea prices
Increase in selling to China because of healthy netbacks weak TDP spread
Narrow gap results in fewer imports in line with FOB K price support from PX
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 42wwwiciscom 42
Exports from Asia to US market sporadic highly dependent on price gap gasoline blending season and Asia demand
0
10
20
30
40
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250Q
ty in 000 tonnesU
SDto
nne
Price gap (Asia prompt vs US forward) Exports from Asia to US
Open arbitrage opportunities result in increase of Asia exports
Consistent upward trend leads to selling interest
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 43wwwiciscom 43
India TOL imports mainly from SE Asia and Iran
46
23
17
37
4
2014
Singapore Thailand Iran S Korea Europe Others
2015
50
24
9
37
7
Source customs data
Total= 288kt Total= 288kt
wwwiciscom 44wwwiciscom 44
NE Asia TOL supply could outstrip demand in H2 2016 on heavier downstream turnarounds permanent shutdowns
H2 2015 H2 2016
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S Oil Onsan old TDP Onsan 00 42 42 00 00 00
00 42 42 00 00 00FCFC Aroma 2 TDP Mailiao 67 200 00 00 00 00
67 200 00 00 00 00JX Nippon Oil TDP Mizushima A 00 00 75 75 00 00
00 00 75 75 00 0067 242 117 75 00 00
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecLotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 73 25 00KPIC Ulsan 00 00 00 83 00 00S Oil No 1 Onsan 00 146 146 00 00 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 167 333 00OCI Yeosu 00 00 00 33 00 00
00 146 146 357 358 00Mitsui Chemicals Chiba 00 00 00 83 83 00JX Nippon Oil Mizushima A 00 00 117 233 00 00Tonen General Wakayama 00 00 00 69 92 00
00 00 117 385 175 00FCFC Aroma No 2 Mailiao 83 250 00 00 00 00CPC No 6 Kaohsiung 40 00 20 80 20 00CPC No3 Kaoshiung 00 00 00 00 83 55
123 250 20 80 103 55123 396 283 822 636 55
Est TOL consumption loss from KR
Est TOL consumption loss from TW
Est TOL production loss from KR
Total est consumption loss from NE Asia
Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia
CONSUMPTION (mt)
PRODUCTION (mt)
Est TOL consumption loss from JPN
Est TOL production loss from JPN
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUlsan Aromatics Center TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 1000 500 00SKGC TDP Incheon 00 00 00 83 42 00LG Chem H D A (shut since Jan) Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38
38 38 38 1122 580 38Taiyo Oil TDP cut rate only Kikuma 42 07 00 00 00 00MSNC TDI (shut since April) Omuta 65 65 65 65 65 65
107 72 65 65 65 65145 110 103 1187 645 103
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSKGC Incheon 00 00 00 133 67 00
00 00 00 133 67 00Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 00 00 108 108 00 00JFEC Chiba 00 00 14 42 00 00
00 00 122 150 00 00CPC No 7 Kaohsiung 00 00 00 27 108 00CPC No 3 Kaohsiung 110 00 00 00 00 00
110 00 00 27 108 00110 00 122 310 175 00
Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia
PRODUCTION (mt)
CONSUMPTION (mt)
Est TOL consumption loss from KR
Est TOL consumption loss from JPNTotal est consumption loss from NE Asia
Est TOL production loss from KR
Est TOL production loss from JPN
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016
Qty
in to
nnes
Total est consumption loss from NE Asia Total est production loss from NE AsiaSource ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45
Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance
Source ICIS
bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016
bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread
bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption
bull Improvements in TOL blend values
bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading
bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer
bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers
bull Other competitively priced blendstocks
bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL
bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China
TOL supply
TOL demand
Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors
wwwiciscom 46
Drivers of benzene trade flow
wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47
-60-40-200204060
500550600650700750800850900
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea
China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016
020000400006000080000
100000120000140000160000180000200000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Tonn
es
Others
MiddleEastThailand
Malaysia
Taiwan
Japan
SouthKorea
China imports
Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand
Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance
Strong appetite for imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48
Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
Pric
e ($
tonn
e)
Tonn
es
Shore tank inventories
E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity
2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite
Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains
Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49
-80-60-40-20020406080100
500550600650700750800850900950
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15
Tonn
es
OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea
Imports from Asia increase
Imports lower due to higher China prices
S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015
Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates
US imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50
Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600Ja
n-14
Feb-
14M
ar-1
4A
pr-1
4M
ay-1
4Ju
n-14
Jul-1
4A
ug-1
4Se
p-14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Dec
-14
Jan-
15Fe
b-15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
May
-15
Jun-
15Ju
l-15
Aug
-15
Sep-
15O
ct-1
5N
ov-1
5D
ec-1
5Ja
n-16
Feb-
16M
ar-1
6A
pr-1
6
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)Naphtha-Benzene
Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene
$346t $193t $230t
wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51
S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32
Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300
SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15
YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37
2015 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25
S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25
SK Global Chem Incheon 200
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16
OthersTaiwanChinaUS
S Korea exports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52
Outlook increased supply likely to head to China
Source ICIS industry
Company Location BZ Start up period
Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016
Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16
Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos
(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul
Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16
Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16
Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16
Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017
Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex
Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017
Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017
KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017
Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017
Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726
Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322
Product Company Location Capacity(kta)
BZ usage Start up period
SM
Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16
Donghao China 300 240 May-16
Phenol
PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16
Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16
Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17
PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017
Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017
CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17
CPL
Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16
China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16
Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16
MDI
Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017
Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017
Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017
Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972
Consumption within China in 2016 637 655
wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53
Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season
S Korea 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75
BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0
S Korea 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5
KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26
S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13
BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3
Japan 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36
Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12
BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0
Japan 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23
Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24
JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24
BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17
Source ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54
BZ demandBZ supply
bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China
bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ
bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene
bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units
bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher
bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure
bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed
bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand
Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55
Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom
Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom
Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom
Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom
wwwiciscom 56
Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets
Pricing information
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Request your free sample report gtgt
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wwwiciscom 57
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wwwiciscom 2222Source Industry
S Korearsquos exports likely to stabilise at low levels of around 650kt in 2016 after falling for two years
wwwiciscom 2323
End 2015-2016 ethylene capacity expansions in AsiaMideast
Saudi+1800kta
India+3270kta
Iran+2000kta Japan
+70ktaChina+1615kta
Source Industry
Total 9015 kta
Indonesia+260kta
wwwiciscom 2424Source Industry
Cracker expansions concentrated in IndiaMideast mostly integrated
Company Location
C2 capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr) Start-up schedule
Chandra Asri Cilegon Indonesia +260 to 860 Dec 2015Asahi Kasei Mitsubishi Chemical Ethylene Corp Mizushima Japan +70 to 570 1 Apr 2016GAIL Auraiya India 450 400 PE End Feb 2016Brahmaputra Cracker and Polymer Ltd (BCPL) Lepetkata Assam India 220 220 HDPELLDPE End Q1 2016
ONGC Petro Additions (OPaL) Dahej Gujarat India 1100 340 HDPE 720HDPELLDPE Late Q2 2016
Reliance Jamnagar India 1500 750 MEG 550 LLDPE 450 LDPE End 2016
Sadara Chemical Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia 1500 350 LDPE 1080 solution PE Q2mid 2016 at earliest
Petro Rabigh Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia +300 to 1600 150 LDPEEVA 75 EPDM Apr 2016 (cracker only)
Kavian Petrochemical Bushehr Iran 1000Supply to domestic plants via west pipeline H2 20162017
Arvand Petrochemical Gachsaran Iran 1000Feeds own vinyls plants+pipeline customers H2 20162017
Total C27400
wwwiciscom 2525
Expansions in China centred on integrated coal-based projects
Source Industry
Company Location Facility
C2 capacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstreamcapacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr
Start-upschedule
Shenhua Yulin Shenmu Shaanxi MTO 300 300 PE Dec 2015Inner Mongolia ChinaCoal Mengda New Energy amp Chemical Industry
Erdos Inner Mongolia CTO 300
300HDPELLDPE Apr 2016
Shenhua Xinjiang Urumqi Xinjiang CTO 320 320 LDPE Late Q2 2016
Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Golmud Qinghai CTO 160 300 PVC Q3 2016
Fund (Changzhou) Energy amp Chemical Changzhou Jiangsu MTO 165 Q3 2016
Jiangsu Sailboat PetrochemicalLianyungang Jiangsu MTO 370
300 EVALDPE 180 EO 20 MEG Q4 2016
Total C21615 Will supply to Changzhou Dohowrsquos new 300kta SM plant
wwwiciscom 2626Source Industry
More capacity increases at crackers in NESE Asia in 2017
Company Location
C2 capacityadditions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Completion schedule
Korea Petrochemical Industry Co (KPIC)
Onsan South Korea +330 to 800 Mid 2017
Lotte Chemical TitanPasir Gudang Malaysia 90 H1 2017
CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals (CSPC)
Huizhou Guangdong China 1000
150 EO 480 EG400 HDPE 300 LLDPE 700 SM End 20172018
Total C2 1420
wwwiciscom 27Source Industry
Chinarsquos ethylene import demand in 2016 could increase to around 1550-1600kt from 2015rsquos 1516kt
wwwiciscom 2828
Arbitrage amp Mideast cargoes help offset regional supply shortfalls around 500-565kt expected in 2016
Source Industry
Saudi 170-175kt
US 130-140kt
Europe 200-250kt
Projected spot supply excludes term cargoes
wwwiciscom 29
US ethane-based derivative expansions ndash an emerging threat
wwwiciscom 30
Company LocationC2 capacity (rsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream (lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Start-up schedule
Chevron Phillips ChemicalCedar Bayou Texas 1500
500 Bimodal HDPE 500 mLLDPE at Sweeny Mid 2017
Dow Chemical Freeport Texas 1500400 ELITE PE 350 LDPE 320 elastomers 200 EPDM H1 2017
ExxonMobil Chemical Baytown Texas 1500650x2 mLLDPE plus LLDPE at Mont Belvieu H2 2017
Formosa PlasticsPoint Comfort Texas 1590
525 PE unspec 6255 LDPE1000 MEG 20172018
Occidental ChemicalMexichem Ingleside Texas 544 Feed into existing 1050 VCM Q1 2017
SasolLake Charles Louisiana 1500
450 LDPE 450 LLDPE 300EOEG 300 ethoxylatesdetergent alcohols 2018
Total C28134 Total PE 51005
2017-2018 US ethylene amp derivatives projects country to become major PE exporter
Source ICIS Chemical Business
wwwiciscom 31
Chinarsquos PE deficit to continue
wwwiciscom 32wwwiciscom 32
Asia ethylene market to remain tight in 2016
Low-cost US PE exports likely to begin in late 2017 operations of naphtha-based integrated producers in Asia may be impacted
Conclusion
wwwiciscom 33
Asiarsquos toluene and benzene trade flows
wwwiciscom 34
Drivers of Asiarsquos toluene trade flow
wwwiciscom 35wwwiciscom 35
Asiarsquos TOL prices still tracks PX but relationship may weaken on narrower TDP spreads wider toluene-naphtha gap
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
160002
-Jan
-201
422
-Jan
-201
412
-Feb
-201
404
-Mar
-201
424
-Mar
-201
411
-Apr
-201
401
-May
-201
421
-May
-201
410
-Jun
-201
430
-Jun
-201
418
-Jul
-201
407
-Aug
-201
427
-Aug
-201
416
-Sep
-201
406
-Oct
-201
424
-Oct
-201
413
-Nov
-201
403
-Dec
-201
423
-Dec
-201
421
-Jan
-201
510
-Feb
-201
504
-Mar
-201
524
-Mar
-201
513
-Apr
-201
504
-May
-201
522
-May
-201
511
-Jun
-201
501
-Jul
-201
521
-Jul
-201
511
-Aug
-201
531
-Aug
-201
518
-Sep
-201
508
-Oct
-201
528
-Oct
-201
517
-Nov
-201
507
-Dec
-201
504
-Jan
-201
622
-Jan
-201
615
-Feb
-201
604
-Mar
-201
624
-Mar
-201
6
TDP spread (U
SDtonne)
USD
tonn
e
TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Toluene FOB K PX CFR CN
CF 094
CF 095
CF = correlation factor
CF 092
CF= 093
Healthy margins prevailed in 2014 supporting the closer relationship between PX and TOL prices
Margins turned largely negative in 2015 weakening the relationship slightly Strong blend value (BV) of TOL had larger impact on prices
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 36wwwiciscom 36
Wider toluene-naphtha spread since end-2015 increased toluene selling impetus instead of downstream usage allocation
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400Price spread (U
SDtonne)
USD
tonn
e
Toluene-Naphtha spread Naphtha CFR Japan Toluene FOB South Korea
Heavy speculation low Chinese + Indian inventory healthy PX spread led to widened spread in Q1 2016
Price increases supported by start-up of UAC higher usage of TOL for TDP units in addition to summer blending season
Breakeven level
Ave = 230Ave = 170Ave = 170
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 37wwwiciscom 37
TOL heavily placed in blending pool in 2015 capping op rates of downstream TDPs 2016 situation may be reversed
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
USD
tonn
e
Toluene blend value Toluene FOB Korea prices
95-TOL CF= 090
Strong TOL BV in H1 of 2014 results in the price support from gasoline blending strengthening relationship between the two
FOB K prices consistently higher than BV difficult to find demand from blending pool
95-TOL CF= 06895-TOL CF= 090
TOL BV surpasses TOL FOB K making it possible to be placed into blending pool for most of 2015
CF = correlation factorSource ICIS
wwwiciscom 38wwwiciscom 38
Chinese inventories have heavy influence on buying interest Q1 shortage supported sellersrsquo decision to offload more TOL
Ave = 103kt Ave = 903kt Ave = 89kt
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
USD
tonne0
00 to
nnes
east China south China CFR China price Import parity price of CNY cargoes
Strong demand from gasoline blending sector and cargo delays result in 3-year low inventories
Period of strong demand
Previously overbought slow offtake after LNY
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 39
S Korearsquos importexport position for TOL dependent on TDP spreads switch in production strategies in Q1 2016
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
50
100
150
200
25003
-Jan
-201
424
-Jan
-201
414
-Feb
-201
407
-Mar
-201
428
-Mar
-201
418
-Apr
-201
409
-May
-201
430
-May
-201
420
-Jun
-201
411
-Jul
-201
401
-Aug
-201
422
-Aug
-201
412
-Sep
-201
403
-Oct
-201
424
-Oct
-201
414
-Nov
-201
405
-Dec
-201
426
-Dec
-201
423
-Jan
-201
513
-Feb
-201
506
-Mar
-201
527
-Mar
-201
517
-Apr
-201
508
-May
-201
529
-May
-201
519
-Jun
-201
510
-Jul
-201
531
-Jul
-201
521
-Aug
-201
511
-Sep
-201
502
-Oct
-201
523
-Oct
-201
513
-Nov
-201
504
-Dec
-201
525
-Dec
-201
522
-Jan
-201
612
-Feb
-201
604
-Mar
-201
625
-Mar
-201
615
-Apr
-201
6
Qty in lsquo000 tonnes
USD
tonn
e
TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Exports from S Korea Imports to S Korea
Start up of UACrsquos TDP
Slight strategy switch as low Chinese inventories strong naphtha-TOL spread since Q1 leads to stronger TOL selling interest
Overall drop in TDP spreads from mid-2014 results in selling interest switch to net exporter
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 40
Heavier downstream unit turnarounds and production adjustments led to more S Korea-origin exports
H1 2015 H1 2016
0
20
40
60
80
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Qty
in 0
00 to
nnes
South Korea exports
China Taiwan Vietnam US Japan Singapore India Others
Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 13 00Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 00 00 18 00Hyundai Cosmo TDP Daesan 00 00 00 50 200 00S Oil No 2 TDP Onsan 00 00 00 200 00 00
00 00 00 250 231 00Producer LocationLG Chem Daesan 00 00 23 23 00 00YNCC No 1 Yeosu 00 00 00 00 50 50Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 00 00 00 08 63 00Lotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 23 00 00S Oil No 2 Onsan 00 00 124 267 00 00SKGC Incheon 67 00 00 00 00 00
67 00 147 321 113 50
Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)
Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)
Source ICIS
Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 00 87Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 27 00 00 00OCI TDI Kunsan 00 06 00 00 00 00GSCX STDP Yeosu 00 00 00 583 82 00Hanwha Total TDP Daesan 00 00 222 278 00 00SKGC TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 00 49 208LG H D A Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38
38 45 288 899 169 333Producer Location Hanwha Total Daesan 00 00 153 191 00 00GSCX Yeosu 00 00 00 174 49 00Lotte Chem Yeosu 00 00 00 47 16 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 00 78 333YNCC Yeosu 00 00 33 17 00 00
00 00 186 428 143 333
Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)
Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)
wwwiciscom 41wwwiciscom 41
NE Asia and SE Asia exports to China rise since H2 2015 on healthy netbacks strong demand
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
USD
tonne
Qty
in 0
00 to
nnes
Others
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
Import parity of domesticcargoesFOB South Korea prices
Increase in selling to China because of healthy netbacks weak TDP spread
Narrow gap results in fewer imports in line with FOB K price support from PX
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 42wwwiciscom 42
Exports from Asia to US market sporadic highly dependent on price gap gasoline blending season and Asia demand
0
10
20
30
40
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250Q
ty in 000 tonnesU
SDto
nne
Price gap (Asia prompt vs US forward) Exports from Asia to US
Open arbitrage opportunities result in increase of Asia exports
Consistent upward trend leads to selling interest
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 43wwwiciscom 43
India TOL imports mainly from SE Asia and Iran
46
23
17
37
4
2014
Singapore Thailand Iran S Korea Europe Others
2015
50
24
9
37
7
Source customs data
Total= 288kt Total= 288kt
wwwiciscom 44wwwiciscom 44
NE Asia TOL supply could outstrip demand in H2 2016 on heavier downstream turnarounds permanent shutdowns
H2 2015 H2 2016
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S Oil Onsan old TDP Onsan 00 42 42 00 00 00
00 42 42 00 00 00FCFC Aroma 2 TDP Mailiao 67 200 00 00 00 00
67 200 00 00 00 00JX Nippon Oil TDP Mizushima A 00 00 75 75 00 00
00 00 75 75 00 0067 242 117 75 00 00
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecLotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 73 25 00KPIC Ulsan 00 00 00 83 00 00S Oil No 1 Onsan 00 146 146 00 00 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 167 333 00OCI Yeosu 00 00 00 33 00 00
00 146 146 357 358 00Mitsui Chemicals Chiba 00 00 00 83 83 00JX Nippon Oil Mizushima A 00 00 117 233 00 00Tonen General Wakayama 00 00 00 69 92 00
00 00 117 385 175 00FCFC Aroma No 2 Mailiao 83 250 00 00 00 00CPC No 6 Kaohsiung 40 00 20 80 20 00CPC No3 Kaoshiung 00 00 00 00 83 55
123 250 20 80 103 55123 396 283 822 636 55
Est TOL consumption loss from KR
Est TOL consumption loss from TW
Est TOL production loss from KR
Total est consumption loss from NE Asia
Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia
CONSUMPTION (mt)
PRODUCTION (mt)
Est TOL consumption loss from JPN
Est TOL production loss from JPN
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUlsan Aromatics Center TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 1000 500 00SKGC TDP Incheon 00 00 00 83 42 00LG Chem H D A (shut since Jan) Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38
38 38 38 1122 580 38Taiyo Oil TDP cut rate only Kikuma 42 07 00 00 00 00MSNC TDI (shut since April) Omuta 65 65 65 65 65 65
107 72 65 65 65 65145 110 103 1187 645 103
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSKGC Incheon 00 00 00 133 67 00
00 00 00 133 67 00Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 00 00 108 108 00 00JFEC Chiba 00 00 14 42 00 00
00 00 122 150 00 00CPC No 7 Kaohsiung 00 00 00 27 108 00CPC No 3 Kaohsiung 110 00 00 00 00 00
110 00 00 27 108 00110 00 122 310 175 00
Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia
PRODUCTION (mt)
CONSUMPTION (mt)
Est TOL consumption loss from KR
Est TOL consumption loss from JPNTotal est consumption loss from NE Asia
Est TOL production loss from KR
Est TOL production loss from JPN
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016
Qty
in to
nnes
Total est consumption loss from NE Asia Total est production loss from NE AsiaSource ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45
Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance
Source ICIS
bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016
bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread
bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption
bull Improvements in TOL blend values
bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading
bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer
bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers
bull Other competitively priced blendstocks
bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL
bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China
TOL supply
TOL demand
Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors
wwwiciscom 46
Drivers of benzene trade flow
wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47
-60-40-200204060
500550600650700750800850900
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea
China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016
020000400006000080000
100000120000140000160000180000200000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Tonn
es
Others
MiddleEastThailand
Malaysia
Taiwan
Japan
SouthKorea
China imports
Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand
Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance
Strong appetite for imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48
Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
Pric
e ($
tonn
e)
Tonn
es
Shore tank inventories
E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity
2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite
Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains
Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49
-80-60-40-20020406080100
500550600650700750800850900950
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15
Tonn
es
OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea
Imports from Asia increase
Imports lower due to higher China prices
S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015
Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates
US imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50
Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600Ja
n-14
Feb-
14M
ar-1
4A
pr-1
4M
ay-1
4Ju
n-14
Jul-1
4A
ug-1
4Se
p-14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Dec
-14
Jan-
15Fe
b-15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
May
-15
Jun-
15Ju
l-15
Aug
-15
Sep-
15O
ct-1
5N
ov-1
5D
ec-1
5Ja
n-16
Feb-
16M
ar-1
6A
pr-1
6
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)Naphtha-Benzene
Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene
$346t $193t $230t
wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51
S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32
Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300
SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15
YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37
2015 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25
S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25
SK Global Chem Incheon 200
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16
OthersTaiwanChinaUS
S Korea exports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52
Outlook increased supply likely to head to China
Source ICIS industry
Company Location BZ Start up period
Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016
Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16
Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos
(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul
Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16
Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16
Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16
Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017
Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex
Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017
Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017
KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017
Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017
Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726
Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322
Product Company Location Capacity(kta)
BZ usage Start up period
SM
Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16
Donghao China 300 240 May-16
Phenol
PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16
Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16
Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17
PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017
Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017
CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17
CPL
Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16
China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16
Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16
MDI
Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017
Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017
Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017
Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972
Consumption within China in 2016 637 655
wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53
Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season
S Korea 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75
BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0
S Korea 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5
KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26
S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13
BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3
Japan 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36
Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12
BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0
Japan 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23
Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24
JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24
BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17
Source ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54
BZ demandBZ supply
bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China
bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ
bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene
bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units
bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher
bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure
bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed
bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand
Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55
Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom
Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom
Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom
Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom
wwwiciscom 56
Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets
Pricing information
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Request your free sample report gtgt
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wwwiciscom 57
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wwwiciscom 2323
End 2015-2016 ethylene capacity expansions in AsiaMideast
Saudi+1800kta
India+3270kta
Iran+2000kta Japan
+70ktaChina+1615kta
Source Industry
Total 9015 kta
Indonesia+260kta
wwwiciscom 2424Source Industry
Cracker expansions concentrated in IndiaMideast mostly integrated
Company Location
C2 capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr) Start-up schedule
Chandra Asri Cilegon Indonesia +260 to 860 Dec 2015Asahi Kasei Mitsubishi Chemical Ethylene Corp Mizushima Japan +70 to 570 1 Apr 2016GAIL Auraiya India 450 400 PE End Feb 2016Brahmaputra Cracker and Polymer Ltd (BCPL) Lepetkata Assam India 220 220 HDPELLDPE End Q1 2016
ONGC Petro Additions (OPaL) Dahej Gujarat India 1100 340 HDPE 720HDPELLDPE Late Q2 2016
Reliance Jamnagar India 1500 750 MEG 550 LLDPE 450 LDPE End 2016
Sadara Chemical Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia 1500 350 LDPE 1080 solution PE Q2mid 2016 at earliest
Petro Rabigh Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia +300 to 1600 150 LDPEEVA 75 EPDM Apr 2016 (cracker only)
Kavian Petrochemical Bushehr Iran 1000Supply to domestic plants via west pipeline H2 20162017
Arvand Petrochemical Gachsaran Iran 1000Feeds own vinyls plants+pipeline customers H2 20162017
Total C27400
wwwiciscom 2525
Expansions in China centred on integrated coal-based projects
Source Industry
Company Location Facility
C2 capacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstreamcapacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr
Start-upschedule
Shenhua Yulin Shenmu Shaanxi MTO 300 300 PE Dec 2015Inner Mongolia ChinaCoal Mengda New Energy amp Chemical Industry
Erdos Inner Mongolia CTO 300
300HDPELLDPE Apr 2016
Shenhua Xinjiang Urumqi Xinjiang CTO 320 320 LDPE Late Q2 2016
Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Golmud Qinghai CTO 160 300 PVC Q3 2016
Fund (Changzhou) Energy amp Chemical Changzhou Jiangsu MTO 165 Q3 2016
Jiangsu Sailboat PetrochemicalLianyungang Jiangsu MTO 370
300 EVALDPE 180 EO 20 MEG Q4 2016
Total C21615 Will supply to Changzhou Dohowrsquos new 300kta SM plant
wwwiciscom 2626Source Industry
More capacity increases at crackers in NESE Asia in 2017
Company Location
C2 capacityadditions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Completion schedule
Korea Petrochemical Industry Co (KPIC)
Onsan South Korea +330 to 800 Mid 2017
Lotte Chemical TitanPasir Gudang Malaysia 90 H1 2017
CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals (CSPC)
Huizhou Guangdong China 1000
150 EO 480 EG400 HDPE 300 LLDPE 700 SM End 20172018
Total C2 1420
wwwiciscom 27Source Industry
Chinarsquos ethylene import demand in 2016 could increase to around 1550-1600kt from 2015rsquos 1516kt
wwwiciscom 2828
Arbitrage amp Mideast cargoes help offset regional supply shortfalls around 500-565kt expected in 2016
Source Industry
Saudi 170-175kt
US 130-140kt
Europe 200-250kt
Projected spot supply excludes term cargoes
wwwiciscom 29
US ethane-based derivative expansions ndash an emerging threat
wwwiciscom 30
Company LocationC2 capacity (rsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream (lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Start-up schedule
Chevron Phillips ChemicalCedar Bayou Texas 1500
500 Bimodal HDPE 500 mLLDPE at Sweeny Mid 2017
Dow Chemical Freeport Texas 1500400 ELITE PE 350 LDPE 320 elastomers 200 EPDM H1 2017
ExxonMobil Chemical Baytown Texas 1500650x2 mLLDPE plus LLDPE at Mont Belvieu H2 2017
Formosa PlasticsPoint Comfort Texas 1590
525 PE unspec 6255 LDPE1000 MEG 20172018
Occidental ChemicalMexichem Ingleside Texas 544 Feed into existing 1050 VCM Q1 2017
SasolLake Charles Louisiana 1500
450 LDPE 450 LLDPE 300EOEG 300 ethoxylatesdetergent alcohols 2018
Total C28134 Total PE 51005
2017-2018 US ethylene amp derivatives projects country to become major PE exporter
Source ICIS Chemical Business
wwwiciscom 31
Chinarsquos PE deficit to continue
wwwiciscom 32wwwiciscom 32
Asia ethylene market to remain tight in 2016
Low-cost US PE exports likely to begin in late 2017 operations of naphtha-based integrated producers in Asia may be impacted
Conclusion
wwwiciscom 33
Asiarsquos toluene and benzene trade flows
wwwiciscom 34
Drivers of Asiarsquos toluene trade flow
wwwiciscom 35wwwiciscom 35
Asiarsquos TOL prices still tracks PX but relationship may weaken on narrower TDP spreads wider toluene-naphtha gap
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
160002
-Jan
-201
422
-Jan
-201
412
-Feb
-201
404
-Mar
-201
424
-Mar
-201
411
-Apr
-201
401
-May
-201
421
-May
-201
410
-Jun
-201
430
-Jun
-201
418
-Jul
-201
407
-Aug
-201
427
-Aug
-201
416
-Sep
-201
406
-Oct
-201
424
-Oct
-201
413
-Nov
-201
403
-Dec
-201
423
-Dec
-201
421
-Jan
-201
510
-Feb
-201
504
-Mar
-201
524
-Mar
-201
513
-Apr
-201
504
-May
-201
522
-May
-201
511
-Jun
-201
501
-Jul
-201
521
-Jul
-201
511
-Aug
-201
531
-Aug
-201
518
-Sep
-201
508
-Oct
-201
528
-Oct
-201
517
-Nov
-201
507
-Dec
-201
504
-Jan
-201
622
-Jan
-201
615
-Feb
-201
604
-Mar
-201
624
-Mar
-201
6
TDP spread (U
SDtonne)
USD
tonn
e
TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Toluene FOB K PX CFR CN
CF 094
CF 095
CF = correlation factor
CF 092
CF= 093
Healthy margins prevailed in 2014 supporting the closer relationship between PX and TOL prices
Margins turned largely negative in 2015 weakening the relationship slightly Strong blend value (BV) of TOL had larger impact on prices
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 36wwwiciscom 36
Wider toluene-naphtha spread since end-2015 increased toluene selling impetus instead of downstream usage allocation
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400Price spread (U
SDtonne)
USD
tonn
e
Toluene-Naphtha spread Naphtha CFR Japan Toluene FOB South Korea
Heavy speculation low Chinese + Indian inventory healthy PX spread led to widened spread in Q1 2016
Price increases supported by start-up of UAC higher usage of TOL for TDP units in addition to summer blending season
Breakeven level
Ave = 230Ave = 170Ave = 170
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 37wwwiciscom 37
TOL heavily placed in blending pool in 2015 capping op rates of downstream TDPs 2016 situation may be reversed
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
USD
tonn
e
Toluene blend value Toluene FOB Korea prices
95-TOL CF= 090
Strong TOL BV in H1 of 2014 results in the price support from gasoline blending strengthening relationship between the two
FOB K prices consistently higher than BV difficult to find demand from blending pool
95-TOL CF= 06895-TOL CF= 090
TOL BV surpasses TOL FOB K making it possible to be placed into blending pool for most of 2015
CF = correlation factorSource ICIS
wwwiciscom 38wwwiciscom 38
Chinese inventories have heavy influence on buying interest Q1 shortage supported sellersrsquo decision to offload more TOL
Ave = 103kt Ave = 903kt Ave = 89kt
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
USD
tonne0
00 to
nnes
east China south China CFR China price Import parity price of CNY cargoes
Strong demand from gasoline blending sector and cargo delays result in 3-year low inventories
Period of strong demand
Previously overbought slow offtake after LNY
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 39
S Korearsquos importexport position for TOL dependent on TDP spreads switch in production strategies in Q1 2016
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
50
100
150
200
25003
-Jan
-201
424
-Jan
-201
414
-Feb
-201
407
-Mar
-201
428
-Mar
-201
418
-Apr
-201
409
-May
-201
430
-May
-201
420
-Jun
-201
411
-Jul
-201
401
-Aug
-201
422
-Aug
-201
412
-Sep
-201
403
-Oct
-201
424
-Oct
-201
414
-Nov
-201
405
-Dec
-201
426
-Dec
-201
423
-Jan
-201
513
-Feb
-201
506
-Mar
-201
527
-Mar
-201
517
-Apr
-201
508
-May
-201
529
-May
-201
519
-Jun
-201
510
-Jul
-201
531
-Jul
-201
521
-Aug
-201
511
-Sep
-201
502
-Oct
-201
523
-Oct
-201
513
-Nov
-201
504
-Dec
-201
525
-Dec
-201
522
-Jan
-201
612
-Feb
-201
604
-Mar
-201
625
-Mar
-201
615
-Apr
-201
6
Qty in lsquo000 tonnes
USD
tonn
e
TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Exports from S Korea Imports to S Korea
Start up of UACrsquos TDP
Slight strategy switch as low Chinese inventories strong naphtha-TOL spread since Q1 leads to stronger TOL selling interest
Overall drop in TDP spreads from mid-2014 results in selling interest switch to net exporter
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 40
Heavier downstream unit turnarounds and production adjustments led to more S Korea-origin exports
H1 2015 H1 2016
0
20
40
60
80
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Qty
in 0
00 to
nnes
South Korea exports
China Taiwan Vietnam US Japan Singapore India Others
Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 13 00Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 00 00 18 00Hyundai Cosmo TDP Daesan 00 00 00 50 200 00S Oil No 2 TDP Onsan 00 00 00 200 00 00
00 00 00 250 231 00Producer LocationLG Chem Daesan 00 00 23 23 00 00YNCC No 1 Yeosu 00 00 00 00 50 50Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 00 00 00 08 63 00Lotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 23 00 00S Oil No 2 Onsan 00 00 124 267 00 00SKGC Incheon 67 00 00 00 00 00
67 00 147 321 113 50
Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)
Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)
Source ICIS
Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 00 87Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 27 00 00 00OCI TDI Kunsan 00 06 00 00 00 00GSCX STDP Yeosu 00 00 00 583 82 00Hanwha Total TDP Daesan 00 00 222 278 00 00SKGC TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 00 49 208LG H D A Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38
38 45 288 899 169 333Producer Location Hanwha Total Daesan 00 00 153 191 00 00GSCX Yeosu 00 00 00 174 49 00Lotte Chem Yeosu 00 00 00 47 16 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 00 78 333YNCC Yeosu 00 00 33 17 00 00
00 00 186 428 143 333
Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)
Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)
wwwiciscom 41wwwiciscom 41
NE Asia and SE Asia exports to China rise since H2 2015 on healthy netbacks strong demand
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
USD
tonne
Qty
in 0
00 to
nnes
Others
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
Import parity of domesticcargoesFOB South Korea prices
Increase in selling to China because of healthy netbacks weak TDP spread
Narrow gap results in fewer imports in line with FOB K price support from PX
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 42wwwiciscom 42
Exports from Asia to US market sporadic highly dependent on price gap gasoline blending season and Asia demand
0
10
20
30
40
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250Q
ty in 000 tonnesU
SDto
nne
Price gap (Asia prompt vs US forward) Exports from Asia to US
Open arbitrage opportunities result in increase of Asia exports
Consistent upward trend leads to selling interest
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 43wwwiciscom 43
India TOL imports mainly from SE Asia and Iran
46
23
17
37
4
2014
Singapore Thailand Iran S Korea Europe Others
2015
50
24
9
37
7
Source customs data
Total= 288kt Total= 288kt
wwwiciscom 44wwwiciscom 44
NE Asia TOL supply could outstrip demand in H2 2016 on heavier downstream turnarounds permanent shutdowns
H2 2015 H2 2016
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S Oil Onsan old TDP Onsan 00 42 42 00 00 00
00 42 42 00 00 00FCFC Aroma 2 TDP Mailiao 67 200 00 00 00 00
67 200 00 00 00 00JX Nippon Oil TDP Mizushima A 00 00 75 75 00 00
00 00 75 75 00 0067 242 117 75 00 00
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecLotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 73 25 00KPIC Ulsan 00 00 00 83 00 00S Oil No 1 Onsan 00 146 146 00 00 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 167 333 00OCI Yeosu 00 00 00 33 00 00
00 146 146 357 358 00Mitsui Chemicals Chiba 00 00 00 83 83 00JX Nippon Oil Mizushima A 00 00 117 233 00 00Tonen General Wakayama 00 00 00 69 92 00
00 00 117 385 175 00FCFC Aroma No 2 Mailiao 83 250 00 00 00 00CPC No 6 Kaohsiung 40 00 20 80 20 00CPC No3 Kaoshiung 00 00 00 00 83 55
123 250 20 80 103 55123 396 283 822 636 55
Est TOL consumption loss from KR
Est TOL consumption loss from TW
Est TOL production loss from KR
Total est consumption loss from NE Asia
Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia
CONSUMPTION (mt)
PRODUCTION (mt)
Est TOL consumption loss from JPN
Est TOL production loss from JPN
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUlsan Aromatics Center TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 1000 500 00SKGC TDP Incheon 00 00 00 83 42 00LG Chem H D A (shut since Jan) Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38
38 38 38 1122 580 38Taiyo Oil TDP cut rate only Kikuma 42 07 00 00 00 00MSNC TDI (shut since April) Omuta 65 65 65 65 65 65
107 72 65 65 65 65145 110 103 1187 645 103
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSKGC Incheon 00 00 00 133 67 00
00 00 00 133 67 00Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 00 00 108 108 00 00JFEC Chiba 00 00 14 42 00 00
00 00 122 150 00 00CPC No 7 Kaohsiung 00 00 00 27 108 00CPC No 3 Kaohsiung 110 00 00 00 00 00
110 00 00 27 108 00110 00 122 310 175 00
Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia
PRODUCTION (mt)
CONSUMPTION (mt)
Est TOL consumption loss from KR
Est TOL consumption loss from JPNTotal est consumption loss from NE Asia
Est TOL production loss from KR
Est TOL production loss from JPN
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016
Qty
in to
nnes
Total est consumption loss from NE Asia Total est production loss from NE AsiaSource ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45
Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance
Source ICIS
bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016
bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread
bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption
bull Improvements in TOL blend values
bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading
bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer
bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers
bull Other competitively priced blendstocks
bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL
bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China
TOL supply
TOL demand
Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors
wwwiciscom 46
Drivers of benzene trade flow
wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47
-60-40-200204060
500550600650700750800850900
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea
China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016
020000400006000080000
100000120000140000160000180000200000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Tonn
es
Others
MiddleEastThailand
Malaysia
Taiwan
Japan
SouthKorea
China imports
Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand
Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance
Strong appetite for imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48
Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
Pric
e ($
tonn
e)
Tonn
es
Shore tank inventories
E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity
2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite
Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains
Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49
-80-60-40-20020406080100
500550600650700750800850900950
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15
Tonn
es
OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea
Imports from Asia increase
Imports lower due to higher China prices
S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015
Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates
US imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50
Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600Ja
n-14
Feb-
14M
ar-1
4A
pr-1
4M
ay-1
4Ju
n-14
Jul-1
4A
ug-1
4Se
p-14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Dec
-14
Jan-
15Fe
b-15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
May
-15
Jun-
15Ju
l-15
Aug
-15
Sep-
15O
ct-1
5N
ov-1
5D
ec-1
5Ja
n-16
Feb-
16M
ar-1
6A
pr-1
6
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)Naphtha-Benzene
Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene
$346t $193t $230t
wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51
S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32
Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300
SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15
YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37
2015 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25
S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25
SK Global Chem Incheon 200
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16
OthersTaiwanChinaUS
S Korea exports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52
Outlook increased supply likely to head to China
Source ICIS industry
Company Location BZ Start up period
Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016
Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16
Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos
(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul
Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16
Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16
Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16
Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017
Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex
Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017
Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017
KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017
Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017
Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726
Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322
Product Company Location Capacity(kta)
BZ usage Start up period
SM
Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16
Donghao China 300 240 May-16
Phenol
PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16
Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16
Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17
PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017
Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017
CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17
CPL
Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16
China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16
Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16
MDI
Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017
Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017
Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017
Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972
Consumption within China in 2016 637 655
wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53
Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season
S Korea 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75
BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0
S Korea 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5
KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26
S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13
BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3
Japan 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36
Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12
BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0
Japan 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23
Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24
JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24
BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17
Source ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54
BZ demandBZ supply
bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China
bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ
bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene
bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units
bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher
bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure
bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed
bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand
Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55
Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom
Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom
Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom
Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom
wwwiciscom 56
Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets
Pricing information
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wwwiciscom 57
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wwwiciscom 2424Source Industry
Cracker expansions concentrated in IndiaMideast mostly integrated
Company Location
C2 capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr) Start-up schedule
Chandra Asri Cilegon Indonesia +260 to 860 Dec 2015Asahi Kasei Mitsubishi Chemical Ethylene Corp Mizushima Japan +70 to 570 1 Apr 2016GAIL Auraiya India 450 400 PE End Feb 2016Brahmaputra Cracker and Polymer Ltd (BCPL) Lepetkata Assam India 220 220 HDPELLDPE End Q1 2016
ONGC Petro Additions (OPaL) Dahej Gujarat India 1100 340 HDPE 720HDPELLDPE Late Q2 2016
Reliance Jamnagar India 1500 750 MEG 550 LLDPE 450 LDPE End 2016
Sadara Chemical Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia 1500 350 LDPE 1080 solution PE Q2mid 2016 at earliest
Petro Rabigh Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia +300 to 1600 150 LDPEEVA 75 EPDM Apr 2016 (cracker only)
Kavian Petrochemical Bushehr Iran 1000Supply to domestic plants via west pipeline H2 20162017
Arvand Petrochemical Gachsaran Iran 1000Feeds own vinyls plants+pipeline customers H2 20162017
Total C27400
wwwiciscom 2525
Expansions in China centred on integrated coal-based projects
Source Industry
Company Location Facility
C2 capacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstreamcapacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr
Start-upschedule
Shenhua Yulin Shenmu Shaanxi MTO 300 300 PE Dec 2015Inner Mongolia ChinaCoal Mengda New Energy amp Chemical Industry
Erdos Inner Mongolia CTO 300
300HDPELLDPE Apr 2016
Shenhua Xinjiang Urumqi Xinjiang CTO 320 320 LDPE Late Q2 2016
Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Golmud Qinghai CTO 160 300 PVC Q3 2016
Fund (Changzhou) Energy amp Chemical Changzhou Jiangsu MTO 165 Q3 2016
Jiangsu Sailboat PetrochemicalLianyungang Jiangsu MTO 370
300 EVALDPE 180 EO 20 MEG Q4 2016
Total C21615 Will supply to Changzhou Dohowrsquos new 300kta SM plant
wwwiciscom 2626Source Industry
More capacity increases at crackers in NESE Asia in 2017
Company Location
C2 capacityadditions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Completion schedule
Korea Petrochemical Industry Co (KPIC)
Onsan South Korea +330 to 800 Mid 2017
Lotte Chemical TitanPasir Gudang Malaysia 90 H1 2017
CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals (CSPC)
Huizhou Guangdong China 1000
150 EO 480 EG400 HDPE 300 LLDPE 700 SM End 20172018
Total C2 1420
wwwiciscom 27Source Industry
Chinarsquos ethylene import demand in 2016 could increase to around 1550-1600kt from 2015rsquos 1516kt
wwwiciscom 2828
Arbitrage amp Mideast cargoes help offset regional supply shortfalls around 500-565kt expected in 2016
Source Industry
Saudi 170-175kt
US 130-140kt
Europe 200-250kt
Projected spot supply excludes term cargoes
wwwiciscom 29
US ethane-based derivative expansions ndash an emerging threat
wwwiciscom 30
Company LocationC2 capacity (rsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream (lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Start-up schedule
Chevron Phillips ChemicalCedar Bayou Texas 1500
500 Bimodal HDPE 500 mLLDPE at Sweeny Mid 2017
Dow Chemical Freeport Texas 1500400 ELITE PE 350 LDPE 320 elastomers 200 EPDM H1 2017
ExxonMobil Chemical Baytown Texas 1500650x2 mLLDPE plus LLDPE at Mont Belvieu H2 2017
Formosa PlasticsPoint Comfort Texas 1590
525 PE unspec 6255 LDPE1000 MEG 20172018
Occidental ChemicalMexichem Ingleside Texas 544 Feed into existing 1050 VCM Q1 2017
SasolLake Charles Louisiana 1500
450 LDPE 450 LLDPE 300EOEG 300 ethoxylatesdetergent alcohols 2018
Total C28134 Total PE 51005
2017-2018 US ethylene amp derivatives projects country to become major PE exporter
Source ICIS Chemical Business
wwwiciscom 31
Chinarsquos PE deficit to continue
wwwiciscom 32wwwiciscom 32
Asia ethylene market to remain tight in 2016
Low-cost US PE exports likely to begin in late 2017 operations of naphtha-based integrated producers in Asia may be impacted
Conclusion
wwwiciscom 33
Asiarsquos toluene and benzene trade flows
wwwiciscom 34
Drivers of Asiarsquos toluene trade flow
wwwiciscom 35wwwiciscom 35
Asiarsquos TOL prices still tracks PX but relationship may weaken on narrower TDP spreads wider toluene-naphtha gap
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
160002
-Jan
-201
422
-Jan
-201
412
-Feb
-201
404
-Mar
-201
424
-Mar
-201
411
-Apr
-201
401
-May
-201
421
-May
-201
410
-Jun
-201
430
-Jun
-201
418
-Jul
-201
407
-Aug
-201
427
-Aug
-201
416
-Sep
-201
406
-Oct
-201
424
-Oct
-201
413
-Nov
-201
403
-Dec
-201
423
-Dec
-201
421
-Jan
-201
510
-Feb
-201
504
-Mar
-201
524
-Mar
-201
513
-Apr
-201
504
-May
-201
522
-May
-201
511
-Jun
-201
501
-Jul
-201
521
-Jul
-201
511
-Aug
-201
531
-Aug
-201
518
-Sep
-201
508
-Oct
-201
528
-Oct
-201
517
-Nov
-201
507
-Dec
-201
504
-Jan
-201
622
-Jan
-201
615
-Feb
-201
604
-Mar
-201
624
-Mar
-201
6
TDP spread (U
SDtonne)
USD
tonn
e
TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Toluene FOB K PX CFR CN
CF 094
CF 095
CF = correlation factor
CF 092
CF= 093
Healthy margins prevailed in 2014 supporting the closer relationship between PX and TOL prices
Margins turned largely negative in 2015 weakening the relationship slightly Strong blend value (BV) of TOL had larger impact on prices
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 36wwwiciscom 36
Wider toluene-naphtha spread since end-2015 increased toluene selling impetus instead of downstream usage allocation
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400Price spread (U
SDtonne)
USD
tonn
e
Toluene-Naphtha spread Naphtha CFR Japan Toluene FOB South Korea
Heavy speculation low Chinese + Indian inventory healthy PX spread led to widened spread in Q1 2016
Price increases supported by start-up of UAC higher usage of TOL for TDP units in addition to summer blending season
Breakeven level
Ave = 230Ave = 170Ave = 170
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 37wwwiciscom 37
TOL heavily placed in blending pool in 2015 capping op rates of downstream TDPs 2016 situation may be reversed
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
USD
tonn
e
Toluene blend value Toluene FOB Korea prices
95-TOL CF= 090
Strong TOL BV in H1 of 2014 results in the price support from gasoline blending strengthening relationship between the two
FOB K prices consistently higher than BV difficult to find demand from blending pool
95-TOL CF= 06895-TOL CF= 090
TOL BV surpasses TOL FOB K making it possible to be placed into blending pool for most of 2015
CF = correlation factorSource ICIS
wwwiciscom 38wwwiciscom 38
Chinese inventories have heavy influence on buying interest Q1 shortage supported sellersrsquo decision to offload more TOL
Ave = 103kt Ave = 903kt Ave = 89kt
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
USD
tonne0
00 to
nnes
east China south China CFR China price Import parity price of CNY cargoes
Strong demand from gasoline blending sector and cargo delays result in 3-year low inventories
Period of strong demand
Previously overbought slow offtake after LNY
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 39
S Korearsquos importexport position for TOL dependent on TDP spreads switch in production strategies in Q1 2016
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
50
100
150
200
25003
-Jan
-201
424
-Jan
-201
414
-Feb
-201
407
-Mar
-201
428
-Mar
-201
418
-Apr
-201
409
-May
-201
430
-May
-201
420
-Jun
-201
411
-Jul
-201
401
-Aug
-201
422
-Aug
-201
412
-Sep
-201
403
-Oct
-201
424
-Oct
-201
414
-Nov
-201
405
-Dec
-201
426
-Dec
-201
423
-Jan
-201
513
-Feb
-201
506
-Mar
-201
527
-Mar
-201
517
-Apr
-201
508
-May
-201
529
-May
-201
519
-Jun
-201
510
-Jul
-201
531
-Jul
-201
521
-Aug
-201
511
-Sep
-201
502
-Oct
-201
523
-Oct
-201
513
-Nov
-201
504
-Dec
-201
525
-Dec
-201
522
-Jan
-201
612
-Feb
-201
604
-Mar
-201
625
-Mar
-201
615
-Apr
-201
6
Qty in lsquo000 tonnes
USD
tonn
e
TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Exports from S Korea Imports to S Korea
Start up of UACrsquos TDP
Slight strategy switch as low Chinese inventories strong naphtha-TOL spread since Q1 leads to stronger TOL selling interest
Overall drop in TDP spreads from mid-2014 results in selling interest switch to net exporter
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 40
Heavier downstream unit turnarounds and production adjustments led to more S Korea-origin exports
H1 2015 H1 2016
0
20
40
60
80
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Qty
in 0
00 to
nnes
South Korea exports
China Taiwan Vietnam US Japan Singapore India Others
Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 13 00Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 00 00 18 00Hyundai Cosmo TDP Daesan 00 00 00 50 200 00S Oil No 2 TDP Onsan 00 00 00 200 00 00
00 00 00 250 231 00Producer LocationLG Chem Daesan 00 00 23 23 00 00YNCC No 1 Yeosu 00 00 00 00 50 50Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 00 00 00 08 63 00Lotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 23 00 00S Oil No 2 Onsan 00 00 124 267 00 00SKGC Incheon 67 00 00 00 00 00
67 00 147 321 113 50
Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)
Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)
Source ICIS
Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 00 87Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 27 00 00 00OCI TDI Kunsan 00 06 00 00 00 00GSCX STDP Yeosu 00 00 00 583 82 00Hanwha Total TDP Daesan 00 00 222 278 00 00SKGC TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 00 49 208LG H D A Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38
38 45 288 899 169 333Producer Location Hanwha Total Daesan 00 00 153 191 00 00GSCX Yeosu 00 00 00 174 49 00Lotte Chem Yeosu 00 00 00 47 16 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 00 78 333YNCC Yeosu 00 00 33 17 00 00
00 00 186 428 143 333
Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)
Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)
wwwiciscom 41wwwiciscom 41
NE Asia and SE Asia exports to China rise since H2 2015 on healthy netbacks strong demand
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
USD
tonne
Qty
in 0
00 to
nnes
Others
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
Import parity of domesticcargoesFOB South Korea prices
Increase in selling to China because of healthy netbacks weak TDP spread
Narrow gap results in fewer imports in line with FOB K price support from PX
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 42wwwiciscom 42
Exports from Asia to US market sporadic highly dependent on price gap gasoline blending season and Asia demand
0
10
20
30
40
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250Q
ty in 000 tonnesU
SDto
nne
Price gap (Asia prompt vs US forward) Exports from Asia to US
Open arbitrage opportunities result in increase of Asia exports
Consistent upward trend leads to selling interest
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 43wwwiciscom 43
India TOL imports mainly from SE Asia and Iran
46
23
17
37
4
2014
Singapore Thailand Iran S Korea Europe Others
2015
50
24
9
37
7
Source customs data
Total= 288kt Total= 288kt
wwwiciscom 44wwwiciscom 44
NE Asia TOL supply could outstrip demand in H2 2016 on heavier downstream turnarounds permanent shutdowns
H2 2015 H2 2016
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S Oil Onsan old TDP Onsan 00 42 42 00 00 00
00 42 42 00 00 00FCFC Aroma 2 TDP Mailiao 67 200 00 00 00 00
67 200 00 00 00 00JX Nippon Oil TDP Mizushima A 00 00 75 75 00 00
00 00 75 75 00 0067 242 117 75 00 00
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecLotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 73 25 00KPIC Ulsan 00 00 00 83 00 00S Oil No 1 Onsan 00 146 146 00 00 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 167 333 00OCI Yeosu 00 00 00 33 00 00
00 146 146 357 358 00Mitsui Chemicals Chiba 00 00 00 83 83 00JX Nippon Oil Mizushima A 00 00 117 233 00 00Tonen General Wakayama 00 00 00 69 92 00
00 00 117 385 175 00FCFC Aroma No 2 Mailiao 83 250 00 00 00 00CPC No 6 Kaohsiung 40 00 20 80 20 00CPC No3 Kaoshiung 00 00 00 00 83 55
123 250 20 80 103 55123 396 283 822 636 55
Est TOL consumption loss from KR
Est TOL consumption loss from TW
Est TOL production loss from KR
Total est consumption loss from NE Asia
Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia
CONSUMPTION (mt)
PRODUCTION (mt)
Est TOL consumption loss from JPN
Est TOL production loss from JPN
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUlsan Aromatics Center TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 1000 500 00SKGC TDP Incheon 00 00 00 83 42 00LG Chem H D A (shut since Jan) Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38
38 38 38 1122 580 38Taiyo Oil TDP cut rate only Kikuma 42 07 00 00 00 00MSNC TDI (shut since April) Omuta 65 65 65 65 65 65
107 72 65 65 65 65145 110 103 1187 645 103
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSKGC Incheon 00 00 00 133 67 00
00 00 00 133 67 00Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 00 00 108 108 00 00JFEC Chiba 00 00 14 42 00 00
00 00 122 150 00 00CPC No 7 Kaohsiung 00 00 00 27 108 00CPC No 3 Kaohsiung 110 00 00 00 00 00
110 00 00 27 108 00110 00 122 310 175 00
Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia
PRODUCTION (mt)
CONSUMPTION (mt)
Est TOL consumption loss from KR
Est TOL consumption loss from JPNTotal est consumption loss from NE Asia
Est TOL production loss from KR
Est TOL production loss from JPN
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016
Qty
in to
nnes
Total est consumption loss from NE Asia Total est production loss from NE AsiaSource ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45
Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance
Source ICIS
bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016
bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread
bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption
bull Improvements in TOL blend values
bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading
bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer
bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers
bull Other competitively priced blendstocks
bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL
bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China
TOL supply
TOL demand
Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors
wwwiciscom 46
Drivers of benzene trade flow
wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47
-60-40-200204060
500550600650700750800850900
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea
China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016
020000400006000080000
100000120000140000160000180000200000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Tonn
es
Others
MiddleEastThailand
Malaysia
Taiwan
Japan
SouthKorea
China imports
Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand
Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance
Strong appetite for imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48
Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
Pric
e ($
tonn
e)
Tonn
es
Shore tank inventories
E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity
2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite
Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains
Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49
-80-60-40-20020406080100
500550600650700750800850900950
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15
Tonn
es
OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea
Imports from Asia increase
Imports lower due to higher China prices
S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015
Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates
US imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50
Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600Ja
n-14
Feb-
14M
ar-1
4A
pr-1
4M
ay-1
4Ju
n-14
Jul-1
4A
ug-1
4Se
p-14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Dec
-14
Jan-
15Fe
b-15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
May
-15
Jun-
15Ju
l-15
Aug
-15
Sep-
15O
ct-1
5N
ov-1
5D
ec-1
5Ja
n-16
Feb-
16M
ar-1
6A
pr-1
6
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)Naphtha-Benzene
Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene
$346t $193t $230t
wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51
S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32
Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300
SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15
YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37
2015 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25
S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25
SK Global Chem Incheon 200
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16
OthersTaiwanChinaUS
S Korea exports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52
Outlook increased supply likely to head to China
Source ICIS industry
Company Location BZ Start up period
Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016
Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16
Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos
(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul
Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16
Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16
Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16
Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017
Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex
Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017
Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017
KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017
Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017
Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726
Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322
Product Company Location Capacity(kta)
BZ usage Start up period
SM
Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16
Donghao China 300 240 May-16
Phenol
PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16
Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16
Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17
PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017
Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017
CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17
CPL
Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16
China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16
Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16
MDI
Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017
Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017
Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017
Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972
Consumption within China in 2016 637 655
wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53
Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season
S Korea 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75
BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0
S Korea 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5
KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26
S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13
BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3
Japan 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36
Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12
BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0
Japan 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23
Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24
JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24
BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17
Source ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54
BZ demandBZ supply
bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China
bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ
bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene
bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units
bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher
bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure
bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed
bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand
Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55
Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom
Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom
Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom
Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom
wwwiciscom 56
Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets
Pricing information
- ButadieneC4s- Ethylene
Request your free sample report gtgt
We produce reliable price assessments and analyses covering Asian aromatics and olefins markets including price histories and a 12-month rolling price forecast enabling you to understand price drivers and settle your contract prices more confidently Our pricing coverage includes
- Mixed xylenes
- Propylene- Toluene
Real-time news serviceBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news including updates on plant capacities output and shutdowns
In-depth analysis of ChinaThe comprehensive studies on olefins and aromatics provide credible data and analysis to support your annual sales and strategy planning by giving you all of the following
- Comprehensive market overviews with detailed regional supply data and company profiles for 2013-2017
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Enquire about the annual studies
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Request a free demo
- Benzene- Cumene- Paraxylene ndash Orthoxylene- Styrene
wwwiciscom 57
Bringing you faster more effective ways to improve productivity and decision making
Data ExpressAccess manage and analyse data easier than ever before with our Data Express solutions
bull Excel Plug-in - instantly update your worksheets in Excelbull API ndash stream the latest data directly to your systems
Set up email alerts for the most fluid markets to help you stay on top of market movements and enable you to react faster to price changes and other major developments
Market Alerts
Enquire about our market alerts
Build chart and track your formulas and keep them all in one place using real-time pricing data via the ICIS Dashboard
Formula Builder
Request a trial
wwwiciscom 2525
Expansions in China centred on integrated coal-based projects
Source Industry
Company Location Facility
C2 capacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstreamcapacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr
Start-upschedule
Shenhua Yulin Shenmu Shaanxi MTO 300 300 PE Dec 2015Inner Mongolia ChinaCoal Mengda New Energy amp Chemical Industry
Erdos Inner Mongolia CTO 300
300HDPELLDPE Apr 2016
Shenhua Xinjiang Urumqi Xinjiang CTO 320 320 LDPE Late Q2 2016
Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Golmud Qinghai CTO 160 300 PVC Q3 2016
Fund (Changzhou) Energy amp Chemical Changzhou Jiangsu MTO 165 Q3 2016
Jiangsu Sailboat PetrochemicalLianyungang Jiangsu MTO 370
300 EVALDPE 180 EO 20 MEG Q4 2016
Total C21615 Will supply to Changzhou Dohowrsquos new 300kta SM plant
wwwiciscom 2626Source Industry
More capacity increases at crackers in NESE Asia in 2017
Company Location
C2 capacityadditions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Completion schedule
Korea Petrochemical Industry Co (KPIC)
Onsan South Korea +330 to 800 Mid 2017
Lotte Chemical TitanPasir Gudang Malaysia 90 H1 2017
CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals (CSPC)
Huizhou Guangdong China 1000
150 EO 480 EG400 HDPE 300 LLDPE 700 SM End 20172018
Total C2 1420
wwwiciscom 27Source Industry
Chinarsquos ethylene import demand in 2016 could increase to around 1550-1600kt from 2015rsquos 1516kt
wwwiciscom 2828
Arbitrage amp Mideast cargoes help offset regional supply shortfalls around 500-565kt expected in 2016
Source Industry
Saudi 170-175kt
US 130-140kt
Europe 200-250kt
Projected spot supply excludes term cargoes
wwwiciscom 29
US ethane-based derivative expansions ndash an emerging threat
wwwiciscom 30
Company LocationC2 capacity (rsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream (lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Start-up schedule
Chevron Phillips ChemicalCedar Bayou Texas 1500
500 Bimodal HDPE 500 mLLDPE at Sweeny Mid 2017
Dow Chemical Freeport Texas 1500400 ELITE PE 350 LDPE 320 elastomers 200 EPDM H1 2017
ExxonMobil Chemical Baytown Texas 1500650x2 mLLDPE plus LLDPE at Mont Belvieu H2 2017
Formosa PlasticsPoint Comfort Texas 1590
525 PE unspec 6255 LDPE1000 MEG 20172018
Occidental ChemicalMexichem Ingleside Texas 544 Feed into existing 1050 VCM Q1 2017
SasolLake Charles Louisiana 1500
450 LDPE 450 LLDPE 300EOEG 300 ethoxylatesdetergent alcohols 2018
Total C28134 Total PE 51005
2017-2018 US ethylene amp derivatives projects country to become major PE exporter
Source ICIS Chemical Business
wwwiciscom 31
Chinarsquos PE deficit to continue
wwwiciscom 32wwwiciscom 32
Asia ethylene market to remain tight in 2016
Low-cost US PE exports likely to begin in late 2017 operations of naphtha-based integrated producers in Asia may be impacted
Conclusion
wwwiciscom 33
Asiarsquos toluene and benzene trade flows
wwwiciscom 34
Drivers of Asiarsquos toluene trade flow
wwwiciscom 35wwwiciscom 35
Asiarsquos TOL prices still tracks PX but relationship may weaken on narrower TDP spreads wider toluene-naphtha gap
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
160002
-Jan
-201
422
-Jan
-201
412
-Feb
-201
404
-Mar
-201
424
-Mar
-201
411
-Apr
-201
401
-May
-201
421
-May
-201
410
-Jun
-201
430
-Jun
-201
418
-Jul
-201
407
-Aug
-201
427
-Aug
-201
416
-Sep
-201
406
-Oct
-201
424
-Oct
-201
413
-Nov
-201
403
-Dec
-201
423
-Dec
-201
421
-Jan
-201
510
-Feb
-201
504
-Mar
-201
524
-Mar
-201
513
-Apr
-201
504
-May
-201
522
-May
-201
511
-Jun
-201
501
-Jul
-201
521
-Jul
-201
511
-Aug
-201
531
-Aug
-201
518
-Sep
-201
508
-Oct
-201
528
-Oct
-201
517
-Nov
-201
507
-Dec
-201
504
-Jan
-201
622
-Jan
-201
615
-Feb
-201
604
-Mar
-201
624
-Mar
-201
6
TDP spread (U
SDtonne)
USD
tonn
e
TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Toluene FOB K PX CFR CN
CF 094
CF 095
CF = correlation factor
CF 092
CF= 093
Healthy margins prevailed in 2014 supporting the closer relationship between PX and TOL prices
Margins turned largely negative in 2015 weakening the relationship slightly Strong blend value (BV) of TOL had larger impact on prices
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 36wwwiciscom 36
Wider toluene-naphtha spread since end-2015 increased toluene selling impetus instead of downstream usage allocation
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400Price spread (U
SDtonne)
USD
tonn
e
Toluene-Naphtha spread Naphtha CFR Japan Toluene FOB South Korea
Heavy speculation low Chinese + Indian inventory healthy PX spread led to widened spread in Q1 2016
Price increases supported by start-up of UAC higher usage of TOL for TDP units in addition to summer blending season
Breakeven level
Ave = 230Ave = 170Ave = 170
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 37wwwiciscom 37
TOL heavily placed in blending pool in 2015 capping op rates of downstream TDPs 2016 situation may be reversed
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
USD
tonn
e
Toluene blend value Toluene FOB Korea prices
95-TOL CF= 090
Strong TOL BV in H1 of 2014 results in the price support from gasoline blending strengthening relationship between the two
FOB K prices consistently higher than BV difficult to find demand from blending pool
95-TOL CF= 06895-TOL CF= 090
TOL BV surpasses TOL FOB K making it possible to be placed into blending pool for most of 2015
CF = correlation factorSource ICIS
wwwiciscom 38wwwiciscom 38
Chinese inventories have heavy influence on buying interest Q1 shortage supported sellersrsquo decision to offload more TOL
Ave = 103kt Ave = 903kt Ave = 89kt
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
USD
tonne0
00 to
nnes
east China south China CFR China price Import parity price of CNY cargoes
Strong demand from gasoline blending sector and cargo delays result in 3-year low inventories
Period of strong demand
Previously overbought slow offtake after LNY
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 39
S Korearsquos importexport position for TOL dependent on TDP spreads switch in production strategies in Q1 2016
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
50
100
150
200
25003
-Jan
-201
424
-Jan
-201
414
-Feb
-201
407
-Mar
-201
428
-Mar
-201
418
-Apr
-201
409
-May
-201
430
-May
-201
420
-Jun
-201
411
-Jul
-201
401
-Aug
-201
422
-Aug
-201
412
-Sep
-201
403
-Oct
-201
424
-Oct
-201
414
-Nov
-201
405
-Dec
-201
426
-Dec
-201
423
-Jan
-201
513
-Feb
-201
506
-Mar
-201
527
-Mar
-201
517
-Apr
-201
508
-May
-201
529
-May
-201
519
-Jun
-201
510
-Jul
-201
531
-Jul
-201
521
-Aug
-201
511
-Sep
-201
502
-Oct
-201
523
-Oct
-201
513
-Nov
-201
504
-Dec
-201
525
-Dec
-201
522
-Jan
-201
612
-Feb
-201
604
-Mar
-201
625
-Mar
-201
615
-Apr
-201
6
Qty in lsquo000 tonnes
USD
tonn
e
TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Exports from S Korea Imports to S Korea
Start up of UACrsquos TDP
Slight strategy switch as low Chinese inventories strong naphtha-TOL spread since Q1 leads to stronger TOL selling interest
Overall drop in TDP spreads from mid-2014 results in selling interest switch to net exporter
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 40
Heavier downstream unit turnarounds and production adjustments led to more S Korea-origin exports
H1 2015 H1 2016
0
20
40
60
80
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Qty
in 0
00 to
nnes
South Korea exports
China Taiwan Vietnam US Japan Singapore India Others
Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 13 00Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 00 00 18 00Hyundai Cosmo TDP Daesan 00 00 00 50 200 00S Oil No 2 TDP Onsan 00 00 00 200 00 00
00 00 00 250 231 00Producer LocationLG Chem Daesan 00 00 23 23 00 00YNCC No 1 Yeosu 00 00 00 00 50 50Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 00 00 00 08 63 00Lotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 23 00 00S Oil No 2 Onsan 00 00 124 267 00 00SKGC Incheon 67 00 00 00 00 00
67 00 147 321 113 50
Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)
Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)
Source ICIS
Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 00 87Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 27 00 00 00OCI TDI Kunsan 00 06 00 00 00 00GSCX STDP Yeosu 00 00 00 583 82 00Hanwha Total TDP Daesan 00 00 222 278 00 00SKGC TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 00 49 208LG H D A Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38
38 45 288 899 169 333Producer Location Hanwha Total Daesan 00 00 153 191 00 00GSCX Yeosu 00 00 00 174 49 00Lotte Chem Yeosu 00 00 00 47 16 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 00 78 333YNCC Yeosu 00 00 33 17 00 00
00 00 186 428 143 333
Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)
Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)
wwwiciscom 41wwwiciscom 41
NE Asia and SE Asia exports to China rise since H2 2015 on healthy netbacks strong demand
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
USD
tonne
Qty
in 0
00 to
nnes
Others
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
Import parity of domesticcargoesFOB South Korea prices
Increase in selling to China because of healthy netbacks weak TDP spread
Narrow gap results in fewer imports in line with FOB K price support from PX
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 42wwwiciscom 42
Exports from Asia to US market sporadic highly dependent on price gap gasoline blending season and Asia demand
0
10
20
30
40
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250Q
ty in 000 tonnesU
SDto
nne
Price gap (Asia prompt vs US forward) Exports from Asia to US
Open arbitrage opportunities result in increase of Asia exports
Consistent upward trend leads to selling interest
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 43wwwiciscom 43
India TOL imports mainly from SE Asia and Iran
46
23
17
37
4
2014
Singapore Thailand Iran S Korea Europe Others
2015
50
24
9
37
7
Source customs data
Total= 288kt Total= 288kt
wwwiciscom 44wwwiciscom 44
NE Asia TOL supply could outstrip demand in H2 2016 on heavier downstream turnarounds permanent shutdowns
H2 2015 H2 2016
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S Oil Onsan old TDP Onsan 00 42 42 00 00 00
00 42 42 00 00 00FCFC Aroma 2 TDP Mailiao 67 200 00 00 00 00
67 200 00 00 00 00JX Nippon Oil TDP Mizushima A 00 00 75 75 00 00
00 00 75 75 00 0067 242 117 75 00 00
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecLotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 73 25 00KPIC Ulsan 00 00 00 83 00 00S Oil No 1 Onsan 00 146 146 00 00 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 167 333 00OCI Yeosu 00 00 00 33 00 00
00 146 146 357 358 00Mitsui Chemicals Chiba 00 00 00 83 83 00JX Nippon Oil Mizushima A 00 00 117 233 00 00Tonen General Wakayama 00 00 00 69 92 00
00 00 117 385 175 00FCFC Aroma No 2 Mailiao 83 250 00 00 00 00CPC No 6 Kaohsiung 40 00 20 80 20 00CPC No3 Kaoshiung 00 00 00 00 83 55
123 250 20 80 103 55123 396 283 822 636 55
Est TOL consumption loss from KR
Est TOL consumption loss from TW
Est TOL production loss from KR
Total est consumption loss from NE Asia
Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia
CONSUMPTION (mt)
PRODUCTION (mt)
Est TOL consumption loss from JPN
Est TOL production loss from JPN
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUlsan Aromatics Center TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 1000 500 00SKGC TDP Incheon 00 00 00 83 42 00LG Chem H D A (shut since Jan) Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38
38 38 38 1122 580 38Taiyo Oil TDP cut rate only Kikuma 42 07 00 00 00 00MSNC TDI (shut since April) Omuta 65 65 65 65 65 65
107 72 65 65 65 65145 110 103 1187 645 103
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSKGC Incheon 00 00 00 133 67 00
00 00 00 133 67 00Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 00 00 108 108 00 00JFEC Chiba 00 00 14 42 00 00
00 00 122 150 00 00CPC No 7 Kaohsiung 00 00 00 27 108 00CPC No 3 Kaohsiung 110 00 00 00 00 00
110 00 00 27 108 00110 00 122 310 175 00
Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia
PRODUCTION (mt)
CONSUMPTION (mt)
Est TOL consumption loss from KR
Est TOL consumption loss from JPNTotal est consumption loss from NE Asia
Est TOL production loss from KR
Est TOL production loss from JPN
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016
Qty
in to
nnes
Total est consumption loss from NE Asia Total est production loss from NE AsiaSource ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45
Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance
Source ICIS
bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016
bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread
bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption
bull Improvements in TOL blend values
bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading
bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer
bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers
bull Other competitively priced blendstocks
bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL
bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China
TOL supply
TOL demand
Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors
wwwiciscom 46
Drivers of benzene trade flow
wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47
-60-40-200204060
500550600650700750800850900
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea
China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016
020000400006000080000
100000120000140000160000180000200000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Tonn
es
Others
MiddleEastThailand
Malaysia
Taiwan
Japan
SouthKorea
China imports
Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand
Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance
Strong appetite for imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48
Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
Pric
e ($
tonn
e)
Tonn
es
Shore tank inventories
E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity
2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite
Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains
Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49
-80-60-40-20020406080100
500550600650700750800850900950
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15
Tonn
es
OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea
Imports from Asia increase
Imports lower due to higher China prices
S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015
Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates
US imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50
Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600Ja
n-14
Feb-
14M
ar-1
4A
pr-1
4M
ay-1
4Ju
n-14
Jul-1
4A
ug-1
4Se
p-14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Dec
-14
Jan-
15Fe
b-15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
May
-15
Jun-
15Ju
l-15
Aug
-15
Sep-
15O
ct-1
5N
ov-1
5D
ec-1
5Ja
n-16
Feb-
16M
ar-1
6A
pr-1
6
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)Naphtha-Benzene
Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene
$346t $193t $230t
wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51
S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32
Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300
SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15
YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37
2015 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25
S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25
SK Global Chem Incheon 200
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16
OthersTaiwanChinaUS
S Korea exports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52
Outlook increased supply likely to head to China
Source ICIS industry
Company Location BZ Start up period
Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016
Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16
Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos
(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul
Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16
Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16
Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16
Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017
Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex
Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017
Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017
KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017
Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017
Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726
Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322
Product Company Location Capacity(kta)
BZ usage Start up period
SM
Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16
Donghao China 300 240 May-16
Phenol
PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16
Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16
Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17
PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017
Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017
CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17
CPL
Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16
China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16
Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16
MDI
Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017
Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017
Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017
Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972
Consumption within China in 2016 637 655
wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53
Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season
S Korea 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75
BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0
S Korea 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5
KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26
S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13
BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3
Japan 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36
Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12
BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0
Japan 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23
Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24
JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24
BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17
Source ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54
BZ demandBZ supply
bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China
bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ
bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene
bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units
bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher
bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure
bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed
bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand
Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55
Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom
Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom
Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom
Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom
wwwiciscom 56
Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets
Pricing information
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wwwiciscom 57
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wwwiciscom 2626Source Industry
More capacity increases at crackers in NESE Asia in 2017
Company Location
C2 capacityadditions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream capacity additions(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Completion schedule
Korea Petrochemical Industry Co (KPIC)
Onsan South Korea +330 to 800 Mid 2017
Lotte Chemical TitanPasir Gudang Malaysia 90 H1 2017
CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals (CSPC)
Huizhou Guangdong China 1000
150 EO 480 EG400 HDPE 300 LLDPE 700 SM End 20172018
Total C2 1420
wwwiciscom 27Source Industry
Chinarsquos ethylene import demand in 2016 could increase to around 1550-1600kt from 2015rsquos 1516kt
wwwiciscom 2828
Arbitrage amp Mideast cargoes help offset regional supply shortfalls around 500-565kt expected in 2016
Source Industry
Saudi 170-175kt
US 130-140kt
Europe 200-250kt
Projected spot supply excludes term cargoes
wwwiciscom 29
US ethane-based derivative expansions ndash an emerging threat
wwwiciscom 30
Company LocationC2 capacity (rsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream (lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Start-up schedule
Chevron Phillips ChemicalCedar Bayou Texas 1500
500 Bimodal HDPE 500 mLLDPE at Sweeny Mid 2017
Dow Chemical Freeport Texas 1500400 ELITE PE 350 LDPE 320 elastomers 200 EPDM H1 2017
ExxonMobil Chemical Baytown Texas 1500650x2 mLLDPE plus LLDPE at Mont Belvieu H2 2017
Formosa PlasticsPoint Comfort Texas 1590
525 PE unspec 6255 LDPE1000 MEG 20172018
Occidental ChemicalMexichem Ingleside Texas 544 Feed into existing 1050 VCM Q1 2017
SasolLake Charles Louisiana 1500
450 LDPE 450 LLDPE 300EOEG 300 ethoxylatesdetergent alcohols 2018
Total C28134 Total PE 51005
2017-2018 US ethylene amp derivatives projects country to become major PE exporter
Source ICIS Chemical Business
wwwiciscom 31
Chinarsquos PE deficit to continue
wwwiciscom 32wwwiciscom 32
Asia ethylene market to remain tight in 2016
Low-cost US PE exports likely to begin in late 2017 operations of naphtha-based integrated producers in Asia may be impacted
Conclusion
wwwiciscom 33
Asiarsquos toluene and benzene trade flows
wwwiciscom 34
Drivers of Asiarsquos toluene trade flow
wwwiciscom 35wwwiciscom 35
Asiarsquos TOL prices still tracks PX but relationship may weaken on narrower TDP spreads wider toluene-naphtha gap
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
160002
-Jan
-201
422
-Jan
-201
412
-Feb
-201
404
-Mar
-201
424
-Mar
-201
411
-Apr
-201
401
-May
-201
421
-May
-201
410
-Jun
-201
430
-Jun
-201
418
-Jul
-201
407
-Aug
-201
427
-Aug
-201
416
-Sep
-201
406
-Oct
-201
424
-Oct
-201
413
-Nov
-201
403
-Dec
-201
423
-Dec
-201
421
-Jan
-201
510
-Feb
-201
504
-Mar
-201
524
-Mar
-201
513
-Apr
-201
504
-May
-201
522
-May
-201
511
-Jun
-201
501
-Jul
-201
521
-Jul
-201
511
-Aug
-201
531
-Aug
-201
518
-Sep
-201
508
-Oct
-201
528
-Oct
-201
517
-Nov
-201
507
-Dec
-201
504
-Jan
-201
622
-Jan
-201
615
-Feb
-201
604
-Mar
-201
624
-Mar
-201
6
TDP spread (U
SDtonne)
USD
tonn
e
TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Toluene FOB K PX CFR CN
CF 094
CF 095
CF = correlation factor
CF 092
CF= 093
Healthy margins prevailed in 2014 supporting the closer relationship between PX and TOL prices
Margins turned largely negative in 2015 weakening the relationship slightly Strong blend value (BV) of TOL had larger impact on prices
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 36wwwiciscom 36
Wider toluene-naphtha spread since end-2015 increased toluene selling impetus instead of downstream usage allocation
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400Price spread (U
SDtonne)
USD
tonn
e
Toluene-Naphtha spread Naphtha CFR Japan Toluene FOB South Korea
Heavy speculation low Chinese + Indian inventory healthy PX spread led to widened spread in Q1 2016
Price increases supported by start-up of UAC higher usage of TOL for TDP units in addition to summer blending season
Breakeven level
Ave = 230Ave = 170Ave = 170
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 37wwwiciscom 37
TOL heavily placed in blending pool in 2015 capping op rates of downstream TDPs 2016 situation may be reversed
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
USD
tonn
e
Toluene blend value Toluene FOB Korea prices
95-TOL CF= 090
Strong TOL BV in H1 of 2014 results in the price support from gasoline blending strengthening relationship between the two
FOB K prices consistently higher than BV difficult to find demand from blending pool
95-TOL CF= 06895-TOL CF= 090
TOL BV surpasses TOL FOB K making it possible to be placed into blending pool for most of 2015
CF = correlation factorSource ICIS
wwwiciscom 38wwwiciscom 38
Chinese inventories have heavy influence on buying interest Q1 shortage supported sellersrsquo decision to offload more TOL
Ave = 103kt Ave = 903kt Ave = 89kt
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
USD
tonne0
00 to
nnes
east China south China CFR China price Import parity price of CNY cargoes
Strong demand from gasoline blending sector and cargo delays result in 3-year low inventories
Period of strong demand
Previously overbought slow offtake after LNY
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 39
S Korearsquos importexport position for TOL dependent on TDP spreads switch in production strategies in Q1 2016
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
50
100
150
200
25003
-Jan
-201
424
-Jan
-201
414
-Feb
-201
407
-Mar
-201
428
-Mar
-201
418
-Apr
-201
409
-May
-201
430
-May
-201
420
-Jun
-201
411
-Jul
-201
401
-Aug
-201
422
-Aug
-201
412
-Sep
-201
403
-Oct
-201
424
-Oct
-201
414
-Nov
-201
405
-Dec
-201
426
-Dec
-201
423
-Jan
-201
513
-Feb
-201
506
-Mar
-201
527
-Mar
-201
517
-Apr
-201
508
-May
-201
529
-May
-201
519
-Jun
-201
510
-Jul
-201
531
-Jul
-201
521
-Aug
-201
511
-Sep
-201
502
-Oct
-201
523
-Oct
-201
513
-Nov
-201
504
-Dec
-201
525
-Dec
-201
522
-Jan
-201
612
-Feb
-201
604
-Mar
-201
625
-Mar
-201
615
-Apr
-201
6
Qty in lsquo000 tonnes
USD
tonn
e
TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Exports from S Korea Imports to S Korea
Start up of UACrsquos TDP
Slight strategy switch as low Chinese inventories strong naphtha-TOL spread since Q1 leads to stronger TOL selling interest
Overall drop in TDP spreads from mid-2014 results in selling interest switch to net exporter
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 40
Heavier downstream unit turnarounds and production adjustments led to more S Korea-origin exports
H1 2015 H1 2016
0
20
40
60
80
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Qty
in 0
00 to
nnes
South Korea exports
China Taiwan Vietnam US Japan Singapore India Others
Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 13 00Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 00 00 18 00Hyundai Cosmo TDP Daesan 00 00 00 50 200 00S Oil No 2 TDP Onsan 00 00 00 200 00 00
00 00 00 250 231 00Producer LocationLG Chem Daesan 00 00 23 23 00 00YNCC No 1 Yeosu 00 00 00 00 50 50Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 00 00 00 08 63 00Lotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 23 00 00S Oil No 2 Onsan 00 00 124 267 00 00SKGC Incheon 67 00 00 00 00 00
67 00 147 321 113 50
Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)
Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)
Source ICIS
Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 00 87Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 27 00 00 00OCI TDI Kunsan 00 06 00 00 00 00GSCX STDP Yeosu 00 00 00 583 82 00Hanwha Total TDP Daesan 00 00 222 278 00 00SKGC TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 00 49 208LG H D A Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38
38 45 288 899 169 333Producer Location Hanwha Total Daesan 00 00 153 191 00 00GSCX Yeosu 00 00 00 174 49 00Lotte Chem Yeosu 00 00 00 47 16 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 00 78 333YNCC Yeosu 00 00 33 17 00 00
00 00 186 428 143 333
Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)
Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)
wwwiciscom 41wwwiciscom 41
NE Asia and SE Asia exports to China rise since H2 2015 on healthy netbacks strong demand
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
USD
tonne
Qty
in 0
00 to
nnes
Others
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
Import parity of domesticcargoesFOB South Korea prices
Increase in selling to China because of healthy netbacks weak TDP spread
Narrow gap results in fewer imports in line with FOB K price support from PX
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 42wwwiciscom 42
Exports from Asia to US market sporadic highly dependent on price gap gasoline blending season and Asia demand
0
10
20
30
40
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250Q
ty in 000 tonnesU
SDto
nne
Price gap (Asia prompt vs US forward) Exports from Asia to US
Open arbitrage opportunities result in increase of Asia exports
Consistent upward trend leads to selling interest
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 43wwwiciscom 43
India TOL imports mainly from SE Asia and Iran
46
23
17
37
4
2014
Singapore Thailand Iran S Korea Europe Others
2015
50
24
9
37
7
Source customs data
Total= 288kt Total= 288kt
wwwiciscom 44wwwiciscom 44
NE Asia TOL supply could outstrip demand in H2 2016 on heavier downstream turnarounds permanent shutdowns
H2 2015 H2 2016
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S Oil Onsan old TDP Onsan 00 42 42 00 00 00
00 42 42 00 00 00FCFC Aroma 2 TDP Mailiao 67 200 00 00 00 00
67 200 00 00 00 00JX Nippon Oil TDP Mizushima A 00 00 75 75 00 00
00 00 75 75 00 0067 242 117 75 00 00
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecLotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 73 25 00KPIC Ulsan 00 00 00 83 00 00S Oil No 1 Onsan 00 146 146 00 00 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 167 333 00OCI Yeosu 00 00 00 33 00 00
00 146 146 357 358 00Mitsui Chemicals Chiba 00 00 00 83 83 00JX Nippon Oil Mizushima A 00 00 117 233 00 00Tonen General Wakayama 00 00 00 69 92 00
00 00 117 385 175 00FCFC Aroma No 2 Mailiao 83 250 00 00 00 00CPC No 6 Kaohsiung 40 00 20 80 20 00CPC No3 Kaoshiung 00 00 00 00 83 55
123 250 20 80 103 55123 396 283 822 636 55
Est TOL consumption loss from KR
Est TOL consumption loss from TW
Est TOL production loss from KR
Total est consumption loss from NE Asia
Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia
CONSUMPTION (mt)
PRODUCTION (mt)
Est TOL consumption loss from JPN
Est TOL production loss from JPN
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUlsan Aromatics Center TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 1000 500 00SKGC TDP Incheon 00 00 00 83 42 00LG Chem H D A (shut since Jan) Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38
38 38 38 1122 580 38Taiyo Oil TDP cut rate only Kikuma 42 07 00 00 00 00MSNC TDI (shut since April) Omuta 65 65 65 65 65 65
107 72 65 65 65 65145 110 103 1187 645 103
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSKGC Incheon 00 00 00 133 67 00
00 00 00 133 67 00Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 00 00 108 108 00 00JFEC Chiba 00 00 14 42 00 00
00 00 122 150 00 00CPC No 7 Kaohsiung 00 00 00 27 108 00CPC No 3 Kaohsiung 110 00 00 00 00 00
110 00 00 27 108 00110 00 122 310 175 00
Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia
PRODUCTION (mt)
CONSUMPTION (mt)
Est TOL consumption loss from KR
Est TOL consumption loss from JPNTotal est consumption loss from NE Asia
Est TOL production loss from KR
Est TOL production loss from JPN
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016
Qty
in to
nnes
Total est consumption loss from NE Asia Total est production loss from NE AsiaSource ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45
Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance
Source ICIS
bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016
bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread
bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption
bull Improvements in TOL blend values
bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading
bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer
bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers
bull Other competitively priced blendstocks
bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL
bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China
TOL supply
TOL demand
Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors
wwwiciscom 46
Drivers of benzene trade flow
wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47
-60-40-200204060
500550600650700750800850900
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea
China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016
020000400006000080000
100000120000140000160000180000200000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Tonn
es
Others
MiddleEastThailand
Malaysia
Taiwan
Japan
SouthKorea
China imports
Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand
Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance
Strong appetite for imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48
Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
Pric
e ($
tonn
e)
Tonn
es
Shore tank inventories
E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity
2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite
Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains
Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49
-80-60-40-20020406080100
500550600650700750800850900950
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15
Tonn
es
OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea
Imports from Asia increase
Imports lower due to higher China prices
S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015
Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates
US imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50
Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600Ja
n-14
Feb-
14M
ar-1
4A
pr-1
4M
ay-1
4Ju
n-14
Jul-1
4A
ug-1
4Se
p-14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Dec
-14
Jan-
15Fe
b-15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
May
-15
Jun-
15Ju
l-15
Aug
-15
Sep-
15O
ct-1
5N
ov-1
5D
ec-1
5Ja
n-16
Feb-
16M
ar-1
6A
pr-1
6
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)Naphtha-Benzene
Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene
$346t $193t $230t
wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51
S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32
Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300
SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15
YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37
2015 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25
S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25
SK Global Chem Incheon 200
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16
OthersTaiwanChinaUS
S Korea exports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52
Outlook increased supply likely to head to China
Source ICIS industry
Company Location BZ Start up period
Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016
Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16
Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos
(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul
Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16
Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16
Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16
Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017
Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex
Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017
Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017
KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017
Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017
Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726
Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322
Product Company Location Capacity(kta)
BZ usage Start up period
SM
Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16
Donghao China 300 240 May-16
Phenol
PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16
Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16
Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17
PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017
Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017
CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17
CPL
Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16
China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16
Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16
MDI
Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017
Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017
Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017
Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972
Consumption within China in 2016 637 655
wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53
Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season
S Korea 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75
BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0
S Korea 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5
KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26
S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13
BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3
Japan 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36
Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12
BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0
Japan 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23
Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24
JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24
BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17
Source ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54
BZ demandBZ supply
bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China
bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ
bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene
bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units
bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher
bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure
bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed
bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand
Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55
Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom
Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom
Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom
Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom
wwwiciscom 56
Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets
Pricing information
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wwwiciscom 57
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wwwiciscom 27Source Industry
Chinarsquos ethylene import demand in 2016 could increase to around 1550-1600kt from 2015rsquos 1516kt
wwwiciscom 2828
Arbitrage amp Mideast cargoes help offset regional supply shortfalls around 500-565kt expected in 2016
Source Industry
Saudi 170-175kt
US 130-140kt
Europe 200-250kt
Projected spot supply excludes term cargoes
wwwiciscom 29
US ethane-based derivative expansions ndash an emerging threat
wwwiciscom 30
Company LocationC2 capacity (rsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream (lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Start-up schedule
Chevron Phillips ChemicalCedar Bayou Texas 1500
500 Bimodal HDPE 500 mLLDPE at Sweeny Mid 2017
Dow Chemical Freeport Texas 1500400 ELITE PE 350 LDPE 320 elastomers 200 EPDM H1 2017
ExxonMobil Chemical Baytown Texas 1500650x2 mLLDPE plus LLDPE at Mont Belvieu H2 2017
Formosa PlasticsPoint Comfort Texas 1590
525 PE unspec 6255 LDPE1000 MEG 20172018
Occidental ChemicalMexichem Ingleside Texas 544 Feed into existing 1050 VCM Q1 2017
SasolLake Charles Louisiana 1500
450 LDPE 450 LLDPE 300EOEG 300 ethoxylatesdetergent alcohols 2018
Total C28134 Total PE 51005
2017-2018 US ethylene amp derivatives projects country to become major PE exporter
Source ICIS Chemical Business
wwwiciscom 31
Chinarsquos PE deficit to continue
wwwiciscom 32wwwiciscom 32
Asia ethylene market to remain tight in 2016
Low-cost US PE exports likely to begin in late 2017 operations of naphtha-based integrated producers in Asia may be impacted
Conclusion
wwwiciscom 33
Asiarsquos toluene and benzene trade flows
wwwiciscom 34
Drivers of Asiarsquos toluene trade flow
wwwiciscom 35wwwiciscom 35
Asiarsquos TOL prices still tracks PX but relationship may weaken on narrower TDP spreads wider toluene-naphtha gap
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
160002
-Jan
-201
422
-Jan
-201
412
-Feb
-201
404
-Mar
-201
424
-Mar
-201
411
-Apr
-201
401
-May
-201
421
-May
-201
410
-Jun
-201
430
-Jun
-201
418
-Jul
-201
407
-Aug
-201
427
-Aug
-201
416
-Sep
-201
406
-Oct
-201
424
-Oct
-201
413
-Nov
-201
403
-Dec
-201
423
-Dec
-201
421
-Jan
-201
510
-Feb
-201
504
-Mar
-201
524
-Mar
-201
513
-Apr
-201
504
-May
-201
522
-May
-201
511
-Jun
-201
501
-Jul
-201
521
-Jul
-201
511
-Aug
-201
531
-Aug
-201
518
-Sep
-201
508
-Oct
-201
528
-Oct
-201
517
-Nov
-201
507
-Dec
-201
504
-Jan
-201
622
-Jan
-201
615
-Feb
-201
604
-Mar
-201
624
-Mar
-201
6
TDP spread (U
SDtonne)
USD
tonn
e
TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Toluene FOB K PX CFR CN
CF 094
CF 095
CF = correlation factor
CF 092
CF= 093
Healthy margins prevailed in 2014 supporting the closer relationship between PX and TOL prices
Margins turned largely negative in 2015 weakening the relationship slightly Strong blend value (BV) of TOL had larger impact on prices
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 36wwwiciscom 36
Wider toluene-naphtha spread since end-2015 increased toluene selling impetus instead of downstream usage allocation
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400Price spread (U
SDtonne)
USD
tonn
e
Toluene-Naphtha spread Naphtha CFR Japan Toluene FOB South Korea
Heavy speculation low Chinese + Indian inventory healthy PX spread led to widened spread in Q1 2016
Price increases supported by start-up of UAC higher usage of TOL for TDP units in addition to summer blending season
Breakeven level
Ave = 230Ave = 170Ave = 170
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 37wwwiciscom 37
TOL heavily placed in blending pool in 2015 capping op rates of downstream TDPs 2016 situation may be reversed
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
USD
tonn
e
Toluene blend value Toluene FOB Korea prices
95-TOL CF= 090
Strong TOL BV in H1 of 2014 results in the price support from gasoline blending strengthening relationship between the two
FOB K prices consistently higher than BV difficult to find demand from blending pool
95-TOL CF= 06895-TOL CF= 090
TOL BV surpasses TOL FOB K making it possible to be placed into blending pool for most of 2015
CF = correlation factorSource ICIS
wwwiciscom 38wwwiciscom 38
Chinese inventories have heavy influence on buying interest Q1 shortage supported sellersrsquo decision to offload more TOL
Ave = 103kt Ave = 903kt Ave = 89kt
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
USD
tonne0
00 to
nnes
east China south China CFR China price Import parity price of CNY cargoes
Strong demand from gasoline blending sector and cargo delays result in 3-year low inventories
Period of strong demand
Previously overbought slow offtake after LNY
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 39
S Korearsquos importexport position for TOL dependent on TDP spreads switch in production strategies in Q1 2016
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
50
100
150
200
25003
-Jan
-201
424
-Jan
-201
414
-Feb
-201
407
-Mar
-201
428
-Mar
-201
418
-Apr
-201
409
-May
-201
430
-May
-201
420
-Jun
-201
411
-Jul
-201
401
-Aug
-201
422
-Aug
-201
412
-Sep
-201
403
-Oct
-201
424
-Oct
-201
414
-Nov
-201
405
-Dec
-201
426
-Dec
-201
423
-Jan
-201
513
-Feb
-201
506
-Mar
-201
527
-Mar
-201
517
-Apr
-201
508
-May
-201
529
-May
-201
519
-Jun
-201
510
-Jul
-201
531
-Jul
-201
521
-Aug
-201
511
-Sep
-201
502
-Oct
-201
523
-Oct
-201
513
-Nov
-201
504
-Dec
-201
525
-Dec
-201
522
-Jan
-201
612
-Feb
-201
604
-Mar
-201
625
-Mar
-201
615
-Apr
-201
6
Qty in lsquo000 tonnes
USD
tonn
e
TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Exports from S Korea Imports to S Korea
Start up of UACrsquos TDP
Slight strategy switch as low Chinese inventories strong naphtha-TOL spread since Q1 leads to stronger TOL selling interest
Overall drop in TDP spreads from mid-2014 results in selling interest switch to net exporter
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 40
Heavier downstream unit turnarounds and production adjustments led to more S Korea-origin exports
H1 2015 H1 2016
0
20
40
60
80
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Qty
in 0
00 to
nnes
South Korea exports
China Taiwan Vietnam US Japan Singapore India Others
Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 13 00Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 00 00 18 00Hyundai Cosmo TDP Daesan 00 00 00 50 200 00S Oil No 2 TDP Onsan 00 00 00 200 00 00
00 00 00 250 231 00Producer LocationLG Chem Daesan 00 00 23 23 00 00YNCC No 1 Yeosu 00 00 00 00 50 50Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 00 00 00 08 63 00Lotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 23 00 00S Oil No 2 Onsan 00 00 124 267 00 00SKGC Incheon 67 00 00 00 00 00
67 00 147 321 113 50
Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)
Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)
Source ICIS
Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 00 87Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 27 00 00 00OCI TDI Kunsan 00 06 00 00 00 00GSCX STDP Yeosu 00 00 00 583 82 00Hanwha Total TDP Daesan 00 00 222 278 00 00SKGC TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 00 49 208LG H D A Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38
38 45 288 899 169 333Producer Location Hanwha Total Daesan 00 00 153 191 00 00GSCX Yeosu 00 00 00 174 49 00Lotte Chem Yeosu 00 00 00 47 16 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 00 78 333YNCC Yeosu 00 00 33 17 00 00
00 00 186 428 143 333
Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)
Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)
wwwiciscom 41wwwiciscom 41
NE Asia and SE Asia exports to China rise since H2 2015 on healthy netbacks strong demand
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
USD
tonne
Qty
in 0
00 to
nnes
Others
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
Import parity of domesticcargoesFOB South Korea prices
Increase in selling to China because of healthy netbacks weak TDP spread
Narrow gap results in fewer imports in line with FOB K price support from PX
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 42wwwiciscom 42
Exports from Asia to US market sporadic highly dependent on price gap gasoline blending season and Asia demand
0
10
20
30
40
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250Q
ty in 000 tonnesU
SDto
nne
Price gap (Asia prompt vs US forward) Exports from Asia to US
Open arbitrage opportunities result in increase of Asia exports
Consistent upward trend leads to selling interest
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 43wwwiciscom 43
India TOL imports mainly from SE Asia and Iran
46
23
17
37
4
2014
Singapore Thailand Iran S Korea Europe Others
2015
50
24
9
37
7
Source customs data
Total= 288kt Total= 288kt
wwwiciscom 44wwwiciscom 44
NE Asia TOL supply could outstrip demand in H2 2016 on heavier downstream turnarounds permanent shutdowns
H2 2015 H2 2016
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S Oil Onsan old TDP Onsan 00 42 42 00 00 00
00 42 42 00 00 00FCFC Aroma 2 TDP Mailiao 67 200 00 00 00 00
67 200 00 00 00 00JX Nippon Oil TDP Mizushima A 00 00 75 75 00 00
00 00 75 75 00 0067 242 117 75 00 00
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecLotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 73 25 00KPIC Ulsan 00 00 00 83 00 00S Oil No 1 Onsan 00 146 146 00 00 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 167 333 00OCI Yeosu 00 00 00 33 00 00
00 146 146 357 358 00Mitsui Chemicals Chiba 00 00 00 83 83 00JX Nippon Oil Mizushima A 00 00 117 233 00 00Tonen General Wakayama 00 00 00 69 92 00
00 00 117 385 175 00FCFC Aroma No 2 Mailiao 83 250 00 00 00 00CPC No 6 Kaohsiung 40 00 20 80 20 00CPC No3 Kaoshiung 00 00 00 00 83 55
123 250 20 80 103 55123 396 283 822 636 55
Est TOL consumption loss from KR
Est TOL consumption loss from TW
Est TOL production loss from KR
Total est consumption loss from NE Asia
Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia
CONSUMPTION (mt)
PRODUCTION (mt)
Est TOL consumption loss from JPN
Est TOL production loss from JPN
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUlsan Aromatics Center TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 1000 500 00SKGC TDP Incheon 00 00 00 83 42 00LG Chem H D A (shut since Jan) Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38
38 38 38 1122 580 38Taiyo Oil TDP cut rate only Kikuma 42 07 00 00 00 00MSNC TDI (shut since April) Omuta 65 65 65 65 65 65
107 72 65 65 65 65145 110 103 1187 645 103
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSKGC Incheon 00 00 00 133 67 00
00 00 00 133 67 00Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 00 00 108 108 00 00JFEC Chiba 00 00 14 42 00 00
00 00 122 150 00 00CPC No 7 Kaohsiung 00 00 00 27 108 00CPC No 3 Kaohsiung 110 00 00 00 00 00
110 00 00 27 108 00110 00 122 310 175 00
Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia
PRODUCTION (mt)
CONSUMPTION (mt)
Est TOL consumption loss from KR
Est TOL consumption loss from JPNTotal est consumption loss from NE Asia
Est TOL production loss from KR
Est TOL production loss from JPN
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016
Qty
in to
nnes
Total est consumption loss from NE Asia Total est production loss from NE AsiaSource ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45
Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance
Source ICIS
bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016
bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread
bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption
bull Improvements in TOL blend values
bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading
bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer
bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers
bull Other competitively priced blendstocks
bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL
bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China
TOL supply
TOL demand
Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors
wwwiciscom 46
Drivers of benzene trade flow
wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47
-60-40-200204060
500550600650700750800850900
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea
China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016
020000400006000080000
100000120000140000160000180000200000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Tonn
es
Others
MiddleEastThailand
Malaysia
Taiwan
Japan
SouthKorea
China imports
Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand
Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance
Strong appetite for imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48
Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
Pric
e ($
tonn
e)
Tonn
es
Shore tank inventories
E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity
2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite
Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains
Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49
-80-60-40-20020406080100
500550600650700750800850900950
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15
Tonn
es
OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea
Imports from Asia increase
Imports lower due to higher China prices
S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015
Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates
US imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50
Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600Ja
n-14
Feb-
14M
ar-1
4A
pr-1
4M
ay-1
4Ju
n-14
Jul-1
4A
ug-1
4Se
p-14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Dec
-14
Jan-
15Fe
b-15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
May
-15
Jun-
15Ju
l-15
Aug
-15
Sep-
15O
ct-1
5N
ov-1
5D
ec-1
5Ja
n-16
Feb-
16M
ar-1
6A
pr-1
6
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)Naphtha-Benzene
Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene
$346t $193t $230t
wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51
S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32
Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300
SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15
YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37
2015 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25
S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25
SK Global Chem Incheon 200
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16
OthersTaiwanChinaUS
S Korea exports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52
Outlook increased supply likely to head to China
Source ICIS industry
Company Location BZ Start up period
Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016
Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16
Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos
(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul
Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16
Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16
Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16
Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017
Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex
Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017
Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017
KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017
Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017
Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726
Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322
Product Company Location Capacity(kta)
BZ usage Start up period
SM
Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16
Donghao China 300 240 May-16
Phenol
PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16
Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16
Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17
PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017
Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017
CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17
CPL
Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16
China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16
Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16
MDI
Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017
Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017
Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017
Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972
Consumption within China in 2016 637 655
wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53
Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season
S Korea 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75
BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0
S Korea 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5
KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26
S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13
BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3
Japan 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36
Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12
BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0
Japan 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23
Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24
JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24
BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17
Source ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54
BZ demandBZ supply
bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China
bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ
bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene
bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units
bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher
bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure
bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed
bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand
Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55
Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom
Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom
Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom
Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom
wwwiciscom 56
Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets
Pricing information
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wwwiciscom 57
Bringing you faster more effective ways to improve productivity and decision making
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wwwiciscom 2828
Arbitrage amp Mideast cargoes help offset regional supply shortfalls around 500-565kt expected in 2016
Source Industry
Saudi 170-175kt
US 130-140kt
Europe 200-250kt
Projected spot supply excludes term cargoes
wwwiciscom 29
US ethane-based derivative expansions ndash an emerging threat
wwwiciscom 30
Company LocationC2 capacity (rsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream (lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Start-up schedule
Chevron Phillips ChemicalCedar Bayou Texas 1500
500 Bimodal HDPE 500 mLLDPE at Sweeny Mid 2017
Dow Chemical Freeport Texas 1500400 ELITE PE 350 LDPE 320 elastomers 200 EPDM H1 2017
ExxonMobil Chemical Baytown Texas 1500650x2 mLLDPE plus LLDPE at Mont Belvieu H2 2017
Formosa PlasticsPoint Comfort Texas 1590
525 PE unspec 6255 LDPE1000 MEG 20172018
Occidental ChemicalMexichem Ingleside Texas 544 Feed into existing 1050 VCM Q1 2017
SasolLake Charles Louisiana 1500
450 LDPE 450 LLDPE 300EOEG 300 ethoxylatesdetergent alcohols 2018
Total C28134 Total PE 51005
2017-2018 US ethylene amp derivatives projects country to become major PE exporter
Source ICIS Chemical Business
wwwiciscom 31
Chinarsquos PE deficit to continue
wwwiciscom 32wwwiciscom 32
Asia ethylene market to remain tight in 2016
Low-cost US PE exports likely to begin in late 2017 operations of naphtha-based integrated producers in Asia may be impacted
Conclusion
wwwiciscom 33
Asiarsquos toluene and benzene trade flows
wwwiciscom 34
Drivers of Asiarsquos toluene trade flow
wwwiciscom 35wwwiciscom 35
Asiarsquos TOL prices still tracks PX but relationship may weaken on narrower TDP spreads wider toluene-naphtha gap
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
160002
-Jan
-201
422
-Jan
-201
412
-Feb
-201
404
-Mar
-201
424
-Mar
-201
411
-Apr
-201
401
-May
-201
421
-May
-201
410
-Jun
-201
430
-Jun
-201
418
-Jul
-201
407
-Aug
-201
427
-Aug
-201
416
-Sep
-201
406
-Oct
-201
424
-Oct
-201
413
-Nov
-201
403
-Dec
-201
423
-Dec
-201
421
-Jan
-201
510
-Feb
-201
504
-Mar
-201
524
-Mar
-201
513
-Apr
-201
504
-May
-201
522
-May
-201
511
-Jun
-201
501
-Jul
-201
521
-Jul
-201
511
-Aug
-201
531
-Aug
-201
518
-Sep
-201
508
-Oct
-201
528
-Oct
-201
517
-Nov
-201
507
-Dec
-201
504
-Jan
-201
622
-Jan
-201
615
-Feb
-201
604
-Mar
-201
624
-Mar
-201
6
TDP spread (U
SDtonne)
USD
tonn
e
TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Toluene FOB K PX CFR CN
CF 094
CF 095
CF = correlation factor
CF 092
CF= 093
Healthy margins prevailed in 2014 supporting the closer relationship between PX and TOL prices
Margins turned largely negative in 2015 weakening the relationship slightly Strong blend value (BV) of TOL had larger impact on prices
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 36wwwiciscom 36
Wider toluene-naphtha spread since end-2015 increased toluene selling impetus instead of downstream usage allocation
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400Price spread (U
SDtonne)
USD
tonn
e
Toluene-Naphtha spread Naphtha CFR Japan Toluene FOB South Korea
Heavy speculation low Chinese + Indian inventory healthy PX spread led to widened spread in Q1 2016
Price increases supported by start-up of UAC higher usage of TOL for TDP units in addition to summer blending season
Breakeven level
Ave = 230Ave = 170Ave = 170
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 37wwwiciscom 37
TOL heavily placed in blending pool in 2015 capping op rates of downstream TDPs 2016 situation may be reversed
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
USD
tonn
e
Toluene blend value Toluene FOB Korea prices
95-TOL CF= 090
Strong TOL BV in H1 of 2014 results in the price support from gasoline blending strengthening relationship between the two
FOB K prices consistently higher than BV difficult to find demand from blending pool
95-TOL CF= 06895-TOL CF= 090
TOL BV surpasses TOL FOB K making it possible to be placed into blending pool for most of 2015
CF = correlation factorSource ICIS
wwwiciscom 38wwwiciscom 38
Chinese inventories have heavy influence on buying interest Q1 shortage supported sellersrsquo decision to offload more TOL
Ave = 103kt Ave = 903kt Ave = 89kt
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
USD
tonne0
00 to
nnes
east China south China CFR China price Import parity price of CNY cargoes
Strong demand from gasoline blending sector and cargo delays result in 3-year low inventories
Period of strong demand
Previously overbought slow offtake after LNY
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 39
S Korearsquos importexport position for TOL dependent on TDP spreads switch in production strategies in Q1 2016
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
50
100
150
200
25003
-Jan
-201
424
-Jan
-201
414
-Feb
-201
407
-Mar
-201
428
-Mar
-201
418
-Apr
-201
409
-May
-201
430
-May
-201
420
-Jun
-201
411
-Jul
-201
401
-Aug
-201
422
-Aug
-201
412
-Sep
-201
403
-Oct
-201
424
-Oct
-201
414
-Nov
-201
405
-Dec
-201
426
-Dec
-201
423
-Jan
-201
513
-Feb
-201
506
-Mar
-201
527
-Mar
-201
517
-Apr
-201
508
-May
-201
529
-May
-201
519
-Jun
-201
510
-Jul
-201
531
-Jul
-201
521
-Aug
-201
511
-Sep
-201
502
-Oct
-201
523
-Oct
-201
513
-Nov
-201
504
-Dec
-201
525
-Dec
-201
522
-Jan
-201
612
-Feb
-201
604
-Mar
-201
625
-Mar
-201
615
-Apr
-201
6
Qty in lsquo000 tonnes
USD
tonn
e
TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Exports from S Korea Imports to S Korea
Start up of UACrsquos TDP
Slight strategy switch as low Chinese inventories strong naphtha-TOL spread since Q1 leads to stronger TOL selling interest
Overall drop in TDP spreads from mid-2014 results in selling interest switch to net exporter
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 40
Heavier downstream unit turnarounds and production adjustments led to more S Korea-origin exports
H1 2015 H1 2016
0
20
40
60
80
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Qty
in 0
00 to
nnes
South Korea exports
China Taiwan Vietnam US Japan Singapore India Others
Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 13 00Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 00 00 18 00Hyundai Cosmo TDP Daesan 00 00 00 50 200 00S Oil No 2 TDP Onsan 00 00 00 200 00 00
00 00 00 250 231 00Producer LocationLG Chem Daesan 00 00 23 23 00 00YNCC No 1 Yeosu 00 00 00 00 50 50Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 00 00 00 08 63 00Lotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 23 00 00S Oil No 2 Onsan 00 00 124 267 00 00SKGC Incheon 67 00 00 00 00 00
67 00 147 321 113 50
Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)
Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)
Source ICIS
Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 00 87Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 27 00 00 00OCI TDI Kunsan 00 06 00 00 00 00GSCX STDP Yeosu 00 00 00 583 82 00Hanwha Total TDP Daesan 00 00 222 278 00 00SKGC TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 00 49 208LG H D A Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38
38 45 288 899 169 333Producer Location Hanwha Total Daesan 00 00 153 191 00 00GSCX Yeosu 00 00 00 174 49 00Lotte Chem Yeosu 00 00 00 47 16 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 00 78 333YNCC Yeosu 00 00 33 17 00 00
00 00 186 428 143 333
Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)
Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)
wwwiciscom 41wwwiciscom 41
NE Asia and SE Asia exports to China rise since H2 2015 on healthy netbacks strong demand
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
USD
tonne
Qty
in 0
00 to
nnes
Others
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
Import parity of domesticcargoesFOB South Korea prices
Increase in selling to China because of healthy netbacks weak TDP spread
Narrow gap results in fewer imports in line with FOB K price support from PX
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 42wwwiciscom 42
Exports from Asia to US market sporadic highly dependent on price gap gasoline blending season and Asia demand
0
10
20
30
40
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250Q
ty in 000 tonnesU
SDto
nne
Price gap (Asia prompt vs US forward) Exports from Asia to US
Open arbitrage opportunities result in increase of Asia exports
Consistent upward trend leads to selling interest
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 43wwwiciscom 43
India TOL imports mainly from SE Asia and Iran
46
23
17
37
4
2014
Singapore Thailand Iran S Korea Europe Others
2015
50
24
9
37
7
Source customs data
Total= 288kt Total= 288kt
wwwiciscom 44wwwiciscom 44
NE Asia TOL supply could outstrip demand in H2 2016 on heavier downstream turnarounds permanent shutdowns
H2 2015 H2 2016
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S Oil Onsan old TDP Onsan 00 42 42 00 00 00
00 42 42 00 00 00FCFC Aroma 2 TDP Mailiao 67 200 00 00 00 00
67 200 00 00 00 00JX Nippon Oil TDP Mizushima A 00 00 75 75 00 00
00 00 75 75 00 0067 242 117 75 00 00
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecLotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 73 25 00KPIC Ulsan 00 00 00 83 00 00S Oil No 1 Onsan 00 146 146 00 00 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 167 333 00OCI Yeosu 00 00 00 33 00 00
00 146 146 357 358 00Mitsui Chemicals Chiba 00 00 00 83 83 00JX Nippon Oil Mizushima A 00 00 117 233 00 00Tonen General Wakayama 00 00 00 69 92 00
00 00 117 385 175 00FCFC Aroma No 2 Mailiao 83 250 00 00 00 00CPC No 6 Kaohsiung 40 00 20 80 20 00CPC No3 Kaoshiung 00 00 00 00 83 55
123 250 20 80 103 55123 396 283 822 636 55
Est TOL consumption loss from KR
Est TOL consumption loss from TW
Est TOL production loss from KR
Total est consumption loss from NE Asia
Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia
CONSUMPTION (mt)
PRODUCTION (mt)
Est TOL consumption loss from JPN
Est TOL production loss from JPN
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUlsan Aromatics Center TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 1000 500 00SKGC TDP Incheon 00 00 00 83 42 00LG Chem H D A (shut since Jan) Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38
38 38 38 1122 580 38Taiyo Oil TDP cut rate only Kikuma 42 07 00 00 00 00MSNC TDI (shut since April) Omuta 65 65 65 65 65 65
107 72 65 65 65 65145 110 103 1187 645 103
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSKGC Incheon 00 00 00 133 67 00
00 00 00 133 67 00Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 00 00 108 108 00 00JFEC Chiba 00 00 14 42 00 00
00 00 122 150 00 00CPC No 7 Kaohsiung 00 00 00 27 108 00CPC No 3 Kaohsiung 110 00 00 00 00 00
110 00 00 27 108 00110 00 122 310 175 00
Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia
PRODUCTION (mt)
CONSUMPTION (mt)
Est TOL consumption loss from KR
Est TOL consumption loss from JPNTotal est consumption loss from NE Asia
Est TOL production loss from KR
Est TOL production loss from JPN
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016
Qty
in to
nnes
Total est consumption loss from NE Asia Total est production loss from NE AsiaSource ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45
Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance
Source ICIS
bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016
bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread
bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption
bull Improvements in TOL blend values
bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading
bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer
bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers
bull Other competitively priced blendstocks
bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL
bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China
TOL supply
TOL demand
Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors
wwwiciscom 46
Drivers of benzene trade flow
wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47
-60-40-200204060
500550600650700750800850900
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea
China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016
020000400006000080000
100000120000140000160000180000200000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Tonn
es
Others
MiddleEastThailand
Malaysia
Taiwan
Japan
SouthKorea
China imports
Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand
Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance
Strong appetite for imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48
Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
Pric
e ($
tonn
e)
Tonn
es
Shore tank inventories
E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity
2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite
Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains
Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49
-80-60-40-20020406080100
500550600650700750800850900950
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15
Tonn
es
OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea
Imports from Asia increase
Imports lower due to higher China prices
S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015
Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates
US imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50
Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600Ja
n-14
Feb-
14M
ar-1
4A
pr-1
4M
ay-1
4Ju
n-14
Jul-1
4A
ug-1
4Se
p-14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Dec
-14
Jan-
15Fe
b-15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
May
-15
Jun-
15Ju
l-15
Aug
-15
Sep-
15O
ct-1
5N
ov-1
5D
ec-1
5Ja
n-16
Feb-
16M
ar-1
6A
pr-1
6
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)Naphtha-Benzene
Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene
$346t $193t $230t
wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51
S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32
Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300
SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15
YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37
2015 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25
S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25
SK Global Chem Incheon 200
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16
OthersTaiwanChinaUS
S Korea exports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52
Outlook increased supply likely to head to China
Source ICIS industry
Company Location BZ Start up period
Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016
Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16
Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos
(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul
Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16
Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16
Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16
Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017
Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex
Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017
Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017
KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017
Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017
Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726
Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322
Product Company Location Capacity(kta)
BZ usage Start up period
SM
Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16
Donghao China 300 240 May-16
Phenol
PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16
Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16
Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17
PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017
Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017
CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17
CPL
Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16
China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16
Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16
MDI
Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017
Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017
Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017
Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972
Consumption within China in 2016 637 655
wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53
Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season
S Korea 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75
BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0
S Korea 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5
KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26
S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13
BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3
Japan 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36
Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12
BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0
Japan 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23
Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24
JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24
BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17
Source ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54
BZ demandBZ supply
bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China
bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ
bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene
bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units
bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher
bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure
bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed
bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand
Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55
Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom
Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom
Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom
Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom
wwwiciscom 56
Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets
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wwwiciscom 57
Bringing you faster more effective ways to improve productivity and decision making
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bull Excel Plug-in - instantly update your worksheets in Excelbull API ndash stream the latest data directly to your systems
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Market Alerts
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wwwiciscom 29
US ethane-based derivative expansions ndash an emerging threat
wwwiciscom 30
Company LocationC2 capacity (rsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream (lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Start-up schedule
Chevron Phillips ChemicalCedar Bayou Texas 1500
500 Bimodal HDPE 500 mLLDPE at Sweeny Mid 2017
Dow Chemical Freeport Texas 1500400 ELITE PE 350 LDPE 320 elastomers 200 EPDM H1 2017
ExxonMobil Chemical Baytown Texas 1500650x2 mLLDPE plus LLDPE at Mont Belvieu H2 2017
Formosa PlasticsPoint Comfort Texas 1590
525 PE unspec 6255 LDPE1000 MEG 20172018
Occidental ChemicalMexichem Ingleside Texas 544 Feed into existing 1050 VCM Q1 2017
SasolLake Charles Louisiana 1500
450 LDPE 450 LLDPE 300EOEG 300 ethoxylatesdetergent alcohols 2018
Total C28134 Total PE 51005
2017-2018 US ethylene amp derivatives projects country to become major PE exporter
Source ICIS Chemical Business
wwwiciscom 31
Chinarsquos PE deficit to continue
wwwiciscom 32wwwiciscom 32
Asia ethylene market to remain tight in 2016
Low-cost US PE exports likely to begin in late 2017 operations of naphtha-based integrated producers in Asia may be impacted
Conclusion
wwwiciscom 33
Asiarsquos toluene and benzene trade flows
wwwiciscom 34
Drivers of Asiarsquos toluene trade flow
wwwiciscom 35wwwiciscom 35
Asiarsquos TOL prices still tracks PX but relationship may weaken on narrower TDP spreads wider toluene-naphtha gap
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
160002
-Jan
-201
422
-Jan
-201
412
-Feb
-201
404
-Mar
-201
424
-Mar
-201
411
-Apr
-201
401
-May
-201
421
-May
-201
410
-Jun
-201
430
-Jun
-201
418
-Jul
-201
407
-Aug
-201
427
-Aug
-201
416
-Sep
-201
406
-Oct
-201
424
-Oct
-201
413
-Nov
-201
403
-Dec
-201
423
-Dec
-201
421
-Jan
-201
510
-Feb
-201
504
-Mar
-201
524
-Mar
-201
513
-Apr
-201
504
-May
-201
522
-May
-201
511
-Jun
-201
501
-Jul
-201
521
-Jul
-201
511
-Aug
-201
531
-Aug
-201
518
-Sep
-201
508
-Oct
-201
528
-Oct
-201
517
-Nov
-201
507
-Dec
-201
504
-Jan
-201
622
-Jan
-201
615
-Feb
-201
604
-Mar
-201
624
-Mar
-201
6
TDP spread (U
SDtonne)
USD
tonn
e
TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Toluene FOB K PX CFR CN
CF 094
CF 095
CF = correlation factor
CF 092
CF= 093
Healthy margins prevailed in 2014 supporting the closer relationship between PX and TOL prices
Margins turned largely negative in 2015 weakening the relationship slightly Strong blend value (BV) of TOL had larger impact on prices
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 36wwwiciscom 36
Wider toluene-naphtha spread since end-2015 increased toluene selling impetus instead of downstream usage allocation
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400Price spread (U
SDtonne)
USD
tonn
e
Toluene-Naphtha spread Naphtha CFR Japan Toluene FOB South Korea
Heavy speculation low Chinese + Indian inventory healthy PX spread led to widened spread in Q1 2016
Price increases supported by start-up of UAC higher usage of TOL for TDP units in addition to summer blending season
Breakeven level
Ave = 230Ave = 170Ave = 170
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 37wwwiciscom 37
TOL heavily placed in blending pool in 2015 capping op rates of downstream TDPs 2016 situation may be reversed
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
USD
tonn
e
Toluene blend value Toluene FOB Korea prices
95-TOL CF= 090
Strong TOL BV in H1 of 2014 results in the price support from gasoline blending strengthening relationship between the two
FOB K prices consistently higher than BV difficult to find demand from blending pool
95-TOL CF= 06895-TOL CF= 090
TOL BV surpasses TOL FOB K making it possible to be placed into blending pool for most of 2015
CF = correlation factorSource ICIS
wwwiciscom 38wwwiciscom 38
Chinese inventories have heavy influence on buying interest Q1 shortage supported sellersrsquo decision to offload more TOL
Ave = 103kt Ave = 903kt Ave = 89kt
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
USD
tonne0
00 to
nnes
east China south China CFR China price Import parity price of CNY cargoes
Strong demand from gasoline blending sector and cargo delays result in 3-year low inventories
Period of strong demand
Previously overbought slow offtake after LNY
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 39
S Korearsquos importexport position for TOL dependent on TDP spreads switch in production strategies in Q1 2016
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
50
100
150
200
25003
-Jan
-201
424
-Jan
-201
414
-Feb
-201
407
-Mar
-201
428
-Mar
-201
418
-Apr
-201
409
-May
-201
430
-May
-201
420
-Jun
-201
411
-Jul
-201
401
-Aug
-201
422
-Aug
-201
412
-Sep
-201
403
-Oct
-201
424
-Oct
-201
414
-Nov
-201
405
-Dec
-201
426
-Dec
-201
423
-Jan
-201
513
-Feb
-201
506
-Mar
-201
527
-Mar
-201
517
-Apr
-201
508
-May
-201
529
-May
-201
519
-Jun
-201
510
-Jul
-201
531
-Jul
-201
521
-Aug
-201
511
-Sep
-201
502
-Oct
-201
523
-Oct
-201
513
-Nov
-201
504
-Dec
-201
525
-Dec
-201
522
-Jan
-201
612
-Feb
-201
604
-Mar
-201
625
-Mar
-201
615
-Apr
-201
6
Qty in lsquo000 tonnes
USD
tonn
e
TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Exports from S Korea Imports to S Korea
Start up of UACrsquos TDP
Slight strategy switch as low Chinese inventories strong naphtha-TOL spread since Q1 leads to stronger TOL selling interest
Overall drop in TDP spreads from mid-2014 results in selling interest switch to net exporter
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 40
Heavier downstream unit turnarounds and production adjustments led to more S Korea-origin exports
H1 2015 H1 2016
0
20
40
60
80
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Qty
in 0
00 to
nnes
South Korea exports
China Taiwan Vietnam US Japan Singapore India Others
Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 13 00Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 00 00 18 00Hyundai Cosmo TDP Daesan 00 00 00 50 200 00S Oil No 2 TDP Onsan 00 00 00 200 00 00
00 00 00 250 231 00Producer LocationLG Chem Daesan 00 00 23 23 00 00YNCC No 1 Yeosu 00 00 00 00 50 50Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 00 00 00 08 63 00Lotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 23 00 00S Oil No 2 Onsan 00 00 124 267 00 00SKGC Incheon 67 00 00 00 00 00
67 00 147 321 113 50
Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)
Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)
Source ICIS
Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 00 87Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 27 00 00 00OCI TDI Kunsan 00 06 00 00 00 00GSCX STDP Yeosu 00 00 00 583 82 00Hanwha Total TDP Daesan 00 00 222 278 00 00SKGC TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 00 49 208LG H D A Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38
38 45 288 899 169 333Producer Location Hanwha Total Daesan 00 00 153 191 00 00GSCX Yeosu 00 00 00 174 49 00Lotte Chem Yeosu 00 00 00 47 16 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 00 78 333YNCC Yeosu 00 00 33 17 00 00
00 00 186 428 143 333
Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)
Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)
wwwiciscom 41wwwiciscom 41
NE Asia and SE Asia exports to China rise since H2 2015 on healthy netbacks strong demand
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
USD
tonne
Qty
in 0
00 to
nnes
Others
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
Import parity of domesticcargoesFOB South Korea prices
Increase in selling to China because of healthy netbacks weak TDP spread
Narrow gap results in fewer imports in line with FOB K price support from PX
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 42wwwiciscom 42
Exports from Asia to US market sporadic highly dependent on price gap gasoline blending season and Asia demand
0
10
20
30
40
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250Q
ty in 000 tonnesU
SDto
nne
Price gap (Asia prompt vs US forward) Exports from Asia to US
Open arbitrage opportunities result in increase of Asia exports
Consistent upward trend leads to selling interest
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 43wwwiciscom 43
India TOL imports mainly from SE Asia and Iran
46
23
17
37
4
2014
Singapore Thailand Iran S Korea Europe Others
2015
50
24
9
37
7
Source customs data
Total= 288kt Total= 288kt
wwwiciscom 44wwwiciscom 44
NE Asia TOL supply could outstrip demand in H2 2016 on heavier downstream turnarounds permanent shutdowns
H2 2015 H2 2016
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S Oil Onsan old TDP Onsan 00 42 42 00 00 00
00 42 42 00 00 00FCFC Aroma 2 TDP Mailiao 67 200 00 00 00 00
67 200 00 00 00 00JX Nippon Oil TDP Mizushima A 00 00 75 75 00 00
00 00 75 75 00 0067 242 117 75 00 00
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecLotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 73 25 00KPIC Ulsan 00 00 00 83 00 00S Oil No 1 Onsan 00 146 146 00 00 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 167 333 00OCI Yeosu 00 00 00 33 00 00
00 146 146 357 358 00Mitsui Chemicals Chiba 00 00 00 83 83 00JX Nippon Oil Mizushima A 00 00 117 233 00 00Tonen General Wakayama 00 00 00 69 92 00
00 00 117 385 175 00FCFC Aroma No 2 Mailiao 83 250 00 00 00 00CPC No 6 Kaohsiung 40 00 20 80 20 00CPC No3 Kaoshiung 00 00 00 00 83 55
123 250 20 80 103 55123 396 283 822 636 55
Est TOL consumption loss from KR
Est TOL consumption loss from TW
Est TOL production loss from KR
Total est consumption loss from NE Asia
Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia
CONSUMPTION (mt)
PRODUCTION (mt)
Est TOL consumption loss from JPN
Est TOL production loss from JPN
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUlsan Aromatics Center TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 1000 500 00SKGC TDP Incheon 00 00 00 83 42 00LG Chem H D A (shut since Jan) Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38
38 38 38 1122 580 38Taiyo Oil TDP cut rate only Kikuma 42 07 00 00 00 00MSNC TDI (shut since April) Omuta 65 65 65 65 65 65
107 72 65 65 65 65145 110 103 1187 645 103
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSKGC Incheon 00 00 00 133 67 00
00 00 00 133 67 00Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 00 00 108 108 00 00JFEC Chiba 00 00 14 42 00 00
00 00 122 150 00 00CPC No 7 Kaohsiung 00 00 00 27 108 00CPC No 3 Kaohsiung 110 00 00 00 00 00
110 00 00 27 108 00110 00 122 310 175 00
Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia
PRODUCTION (mt)
CONSUMPTION (mt)
Est TOL consumption loss from KR
Est TOL consumption loss from JPNTotal est consumption loss from NE Asia
Est TOL production loss from KR
Est TOL production loss from JPN
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016
Qty
in to
nnes
Total est consumption loss from NE Asia Total est production loss from NE AsiaSource ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45
Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance
Source ICIS
bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016
bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread
bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption
bull Improvements in TOL blend values
bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading
bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer
bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers
bull Other competitively priced blendstocks
bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL
bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China
TOL supply
TOL demand
Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors
wwwiciscom 46
Drivers of benzene trade flow
wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47
-60-40-200204060
500550600650700750800850900
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea
China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016
020000400006000080000
100000120000140000160000180000200000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Tonn
es
Others
MiddleEastThailand
Malaysia
Taiwan
Japan
SouthKorea
China imports
Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand
Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance
Strong appetite for imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48
Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
Pric
e ($
tonn
e)
Tonn
es
Shore tank inventories
E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity
2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite
Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains
Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49
-80-60-40-20020406080100
500550600650700750800850900950
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15
Tonn
es
OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea
Imports from Asia increase
Imports lower due to higher China prices
S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015
Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates
US imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50
Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600Ja
n-14
Feb-
14M
ar-1
4A
pr-1
4M
ay-1
4Ju
n-14
Jul-1
4A
ug-1
4Se
p-14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Dec
-14
Jan-
15Fe
b-15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
May
-15
Jun-
15Ju
l-15
Aug
-15
Sep-
15O
ct-1
5N
ov-1
5D
ec-1
5Ja
n-16
Feb-
16M
ar-1
6A
pr-1
6
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)Naphtha-Benzene
Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene
$346t $193t $230t
wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51
S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32
Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300
SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15
YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37
2015 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25
S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25
SK Global Chem Incheon 200
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16
OthersTaiwanChinaUS
S Korea exports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52
Outlook increased supply likely to head to China
Source ICIS industry
Company Location BZ Start up period
Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016
Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16
Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos
(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul
Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16
Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16
Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16
Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017
Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex
Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017
Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017
KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017
Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017
Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726
Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322
Product Company Location Capacity(kta)
BZ usage Start up period
SM
Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16
Donghao China 300 240 May-16
Phenol
PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16
Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16
Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17
PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017
Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017
CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17
CPL
Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16
China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16
Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16
MDI
Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017
Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017
Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017
Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972
Consumption within China in 2016 637 655
wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53
Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season
S Korea 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75
BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0
S Korea 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5
KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26
S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13
BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3
Japan 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36
Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12
BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0
Japan 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23
Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24
JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24
BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17
Source ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54
BZ demandBZ supply
bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China
bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ
bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene
bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units
bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher
bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure
bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed
bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand
Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55
Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom
Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom
Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom
Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom
wwwiciscom 56
Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets
Pricing information
- ButadieneC4s- Ethylene
Request your free sample report gtgt
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wwwiciscom 57
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wwwiciscom 30
Company LocationC2 capacity (rsquo000 tonnesyr)
C2 downstream (lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Start-up schedule
Chevron Phillips ChemicalCedar Bayou Texas 1500
500 Bimodal HDPE 500 mLLDPE at Sweeny Mid 2017
Dow Chemical Freeport Texas 1500400 ELITE PE 350 LDPE 320 elastomers 200 EPDM H1 2017
ExxonMobil Chemical Baytown Texas 1500650x2 mLLDPE plus LLDPE at Mont Belvieu H2 2017
Formosa PlasticsPoint Comfort Texas 1590
525 PE unspec 6255 LDPE1000 MEG 20172018
Occidental ChemicalMexichem Ingleside Texas 544 Feed into existing 1050 VCM Q1 2017
SasolLake Charles Louisiana 1500
450 LDPE 450 LLDPE 300EOEG 300 ethoxylatesdetergent alcohols 2018
Total C28134 Total PE 51005
2017-2018 US ethylene amp derivatives projects country to become major PE exporter
Source ICIS Chemical Business
wwwiciscom 31
Chinarsquos PE deficit to continue
wwwiciscom 32wwwiciscom 32
Asia ethylene market to remain tight in 2016
Low-cost US PE exports likely to begin in late 2017 operations of naphtha-based integrated producers in Asia may be impacted
Conclusion
wwwiciscom 33
Asiarsquos toluene and benzene trade flows
wwwiciscom 34
Drivers of Asiarsquos toluene trade flow
wwwiciscom 35wwwiciscom 35
Asiarsquos TOL prices still tracks PX but relationship may weaken on narrower TDP spreads wider toluene-naphtha gap
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
160002
-Jan
-201
422
-Jan
-201
412
-Feb
-201
404
-Mar
-201
424
-Mar
-201
411
-Apr
-201
401
-May
-201
421
-May
-201
410
-Jun
-201
430
-Jun
-201
418
-Jul
-201
407
-Aug
-201
427
-Aug
-201
416
-Sep
-201
406
-Oct
-201
424
-Oct
-201
413
-Nov
-201
403
-Dec
-201
423
-Dec
-201
421
-Jan
-201
510
-Feb
-201
504
-Mar
-201
524
-Mar
-201
513
-Apr
-201
504
-May
-201
522
-May
-201
511
-Jun
-201
501
-Jul
-201
521
-Jul
-201
511
-Aug
-201
531
-Aug
-201
518
-Sep
-201
508
-Oct
-201
528
-Oct
-201
517
-Nov
-201
507
-Dec
-201
504
-Jan
-201
622
-Jan
-201
615
-Feb
-201
604
-Mar
-201
624
-Mar
-201
6
TDP spread (U
SDtonne)
USD
tonn
e
TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Toluene FOB K PX CFR CN
CF 094
CF 095
CF = correlation factor
CF 092
CF= 093
Healthy margins prevailed in 2014 supporting the closer relationship between PX and TOL prices
Margins turned largely negative in 2015 weakening the relationship slightly Strong blend value (BV) of TOL had larger impact on prices
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 36wwwiciscom 36
Wider toluene-naphtha spread since end-2015 increased toluene selling impetus instead of downstream usage allocation
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400Price spread (U
SDtonne)
USD
tonn
e
Toluene-Naphtha spread Naphtha CFR Japan Toluene FOB South Korea
Heavy speculation low Chinese + Indian inventory healthy PX spread led to widened spread in Q1 2016
Price increases supported by start-up of UAC higher usage of TOL for TDP units in addition to summer blending season
Breakeven level
Ave = 230Ave = 170Ave = 170
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 37wwwiciscom 37
TOL heavily placed in blending pool in 2015 capping op rates of downstream TDPs 2016 situation may be reversed
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
USD
tonn
e
Toluene blend value Toluene FOB Korea prices
95-TOL CF= 090
Strong TOL BV in H1 of 2014 results in the price support from gasoline blending strengthening relationship between the two
FOB K prices consistently higher than BV difficult to find demand from blending pool
95-TOL CF= 06895-TOL CF= 090
TOL BV surpasses TOL FOB K making it possible to be placed into blending pool for most of 2015
CF = correlation factorSource ICIS
wwwiciscom 38wwwiciscom 38
Chinese inventories have heavy influence on buying interest Q1 shortage supported sellersrsquo decision to offload more TOL
Ave = 103kt Ave = 903kt Ave = 89kt
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
USD
tonne0
00 to
nnes
east China south China CFR China price Import parity price of CNY cargoes
Strong demand from gasoline blending sector and cargo delays result in 3-year low inventories
Period of strong demand
Previously overbought slow offtake after LNY
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 39
S Korearsquos importexport position for TOL dependent on TDP spreads switch in production strategies in Q1 2016
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
50
100
150
200
25003
-Jan
-201
424
-Jan
-201
414
-Feb
-201
407
-Mar
-201
428
-Mar
-201
418
-Apr
-201
409
-May
-201
430
-May
-201
420
-Jun
-201
411
-Jul
-201
401
-Aug
-201
422
-Aug
-201
412
-Sep
-201
403
-Oct
-201
424
-Oct
-201
414
-Nov
-201
405
-Dec
-201
426
-Dec
-201
423
-Jan
-201
513
-Feb
-201
506
-Mar
-201
527
-Mar
-201
517
-Apr
-201
508
-May
-201
529
-May
-201
519
-Jun
-201
510
-Jul
-201
531
-Jul
-201
521
-Aug
-201
511
-Sep
-201
502
-Oct
-201
523
-Oct
-201
513
-Nov
-201
504
-Dec
-201
525
-Dec
-201
522
-Jan
-201
612
-Feb
-201
604
-Mar
-201
625
-Mar
-201
615
-Apr
-201
6
Qty in lsquo000 tonnes
USD
tonn
e
TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Exports from S Korea Imports to S Korea
Start up of UACrsquos TDP
Slight strategy switch as low Chinese inventories strong naphtha-TOL spread since Q1 leads to stronger TOL selling interest
Overall drop in TDP spreads from mid-2014 results in selling interest switch to net exporter
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 40
Heavier downstream unit turnarounds and production adjustments led to more S Korea-origin exports
H1 2015 H1 2016
0
20
40
60
80
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Qty
in 0
00 to
nnes
South Korea exports
China Taiwan Vietnam US Japan Singapore India Others
Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 13 00Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 00 00 18 00Hyundai Cosmo TDP Daesan 00 00 00 50 200 00S Oil No 2 TDP Onsan 00 00 00 200 00 00
00 00 00 250 231 00Producer LocationLG Chem Daesan 00 00 23 23 00 00YNCC No 1 Yeosu 00 00 00 00 50 50Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 00 00 00 08 63 00Lotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 23 00 00S Oil No 2 Onsan 00 00 124 267 00 00SKGC Incheon 67 00 00 00 00 00
67 00 147 321 113 50
Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)
Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)
Source ICIS
Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 00 87Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 27 00 00 00OCI TDI Kunsan 00 06 00 00 00 00GSCX STDP Yeosu 00 00 00 583 82 00Hanwha Total TDP Daesan 00 00 222 278 00 00SKGC TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 00 49 208LG H D A Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38
38 45 288 899 169 333Producer Location Hanwha Total Daesan 00 00 153 191 00 00GSCX Yeosu 00 00 00 174 49 00Lotte Chem Yeosu 00 00 00 47 16 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 00 78 333YNCC Yeosu 00 00 33 17 00 00
00 00 186 428 143 333
Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)
Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)
wwwiciscom 41wwwiciscom 41
NE Asia and SE Asia exports to China rise since H2 2015 on healthy netbacks strong demand
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
USD
tonne
Qty
in 0
00 to
nnes
Others
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
Import parity of domesticcargoesFOB South Korea prices
Increase in selling to China because of healthy netbacks weak TDP spread
Narrow gap results in fewer imports in line with FOB K price support from PX
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 42wwwiciscom 42
Exports from Asia to US market sporadic highly dependent on price gap gasoline blending season and Asia demand
0
10
20
30
40
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250Q
ty in 000 tonnesU
SDto
nne
Price gap (Asia prompt vs US forward) Exports from Asia to US
Open arbitrage opportunities result in increase of Asia exports
Consistent upward trend leads to selling interest
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 43wwwiciscom 43
India TOL imports mainly from SE Asia and Iran
46
23
17
37
4
2014
Singapore Thailand Iran S Korea Europe Others
2015
50
24
9
37
7
Source customs data
Total= 288kt Total= 288kt
wwwiciscom 44wwwiciscom 44
NE Asia TOL supply could outstrip demand in H2 2016 on heavier downstream turnarounds permanent shutdowns
H2 2015 H2 2016
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S Oil Onsan old TDP Onsan 00 42 42 00 00 00
00 42 42 00 00 00FCFC Aroma 2 TDP Mailiao 67 200 00 00 00 00
67 200 00 00 00 00JX Nippon Oil TDP Mizushima A 00 00 75 75 00 00
00 00 75 75 00 0067 242 117 75 00 00
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecLotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 73 25 00KPIC Ulsan 00 00 00 83 00 00S Oil No 1 Onsan 00 146 146 00 00 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 167 333 00OCI Yeosu 00 00 00 33 00 00
00 146 146 357 358 00Mitsui Chemicals Chiba 00 00 00 83 83 00JX Nippon Oil Mizushima A 00 00 117 233 00 00Tonen General Wakayama 00 00 00 69 92 00
00 00 117 385 175 00FCFC Aroma No 2 Mailiao 83 250 00 00 00 00CPC No 6 Kaohsiung 40 00 20 80 20 00CPC No3 Kaoshiung 00 00 00 00 83 55
123 250 20 80 103 55123 396 283 822 636 55
Est TOL consumption loss from KR
Est TOL consumption loss from TW
Est TOL production loss from KR
Total est consumption loss from NE Asia
Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia
CONSUMPTION (mt)
PRODUCTION (mt)
Est TOL consumption loss from JPN
Est TOL production loss from JPN
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUlsan Aromatics Center TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 1000 500 00SKGC TDP Incheon 00 00 00 83 42 00LG Chem H D A (shut since Jan) Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38
38 38 38 1122 580 38Taiyo Oil TDP cut rate only Kikuma 42 07 00 00 00 00MSNC TDI (shut since April) Omuta 65 65 65 65 65 65
107 72 65 65 65 65145 110 103 1187 645 103
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSKGC Incheon 00 00 00 133 67 00
00 00 00 133 67 00Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 00 00 108 108 00 00JFEC Chiba 00 00 14 42 00 00
00 00 122 150 00 00CPC No 7 Kaohsiung 00 00 00 27 108 00CPC No 3 Kaohsiung 110 00 00 00 00 00
110 00 00 27 108 00110 00 122 310 175 00
Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia
PRODUCTION (mt)
CONSUMPTION (mt)
Est TOL consumption loss from KR
Est TOL consumption loss from JPNTotal est consumption loss from NE Asia
Est TOL production loss from KR
Est TOL production loss from JPN
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016
Qty
in to
nnes
Total est consumption loss from NE Asia Total est production loss from NE AsiaSource ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45
Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance
Source ICIS
bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016
bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread
bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption
bull Improvements in TOL blend values
bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading
bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer
bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers
bull Other competitively priced blendstocks
bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL
bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China
TOL supply
TOL demand
Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors
wwwiciscom 46
Drivers of benzene trade flow
wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47
-60-40-200204060
500550600650700750800850900
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea
China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016
020000400006000080000
100000120000140000160000180000200000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Tonn
es
Others
MiddleEastThailand
Malaysia
Taiwan
Japan
SouthKorea
China imports
Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand
Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance
Strong appetite for imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48
Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
Pric
e ($
tonn
e)
Tonn
es
Shore tank inventories
E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity
2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite
Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains
Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49
-80-60-40-20020406080100
500550600650700750800850900950
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15
Tonn
es
OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea
Imports from Asia increase
Imports lower due to higher China prices
S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015
Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates
US imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50
Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600Ja
n-14
Feb-
14M
ar-1
4A
pr-1
4M
ay-1
4Ju
n-14
Jul-1
4A
ug-1
4Se
p-14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Dec
-14
Jan-
15Fe
b-15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
May
-15
Jun-
15Ju
l-15
Aug
-15
Sep-
15O
ct-1
5N
ov-1
5D
ec-1
5Ja
n-16
Feb-
16M
ar-1
6A
pr-1
6
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)Naphtha-Benzene
Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene
$346t $193t $230t
wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51
S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32
Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300
SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15
YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37
2015 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25
S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25
SK Global Chem Incheon 200
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16
OthersTaiwanChinaUS
S Korea exports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52
Outlook increased supply likely to head to China
Source ICIS industry
Company Location BZ Start up period
Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016
Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16
Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos
(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul
Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16
Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16
Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16
Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017
Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex
Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017
Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017
KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017
Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017
Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726
Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322
Product Company Location Capacity(kta)
BZ usage Start up period
SM
Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16
Donghao China 300 240 May-16
Phenol
PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16
Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16
Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17
PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017
Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017
CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17
CPL
Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16
China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16
Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16
MDI
Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017
Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017
Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017
Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972
Consumption within China in 2016 637 655
wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53
Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season
S Korea 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75
BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0
S Korea 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5
KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26
S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13
BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3
Japan 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36
Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12
BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0
Japan 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23
Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24
JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24
BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17
Source ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54
BZ demandBZ supply
bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China
bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ
bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene
bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units
bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher
bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure
bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed
bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand
Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55
Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom
Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom
Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom
Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom
wwwiciscom 56
Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets
Pricing information
- ButadieneC4s- Ethylene
Request your free sample report gtgt
We produce reliable price assessments and analyses covering Asian aromatics and olefins markets including price histories and a 12-month rolling price forecast enabling you to understand price drivers and settle your contract prices more confidently Our pricing coverage includes
- Mixed xylenes
- Propylene- Toluene
Real-time news serviceBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news including updates on plant capacities output and shutdowns
In-depth analysis of ChinaThe comprehensive studies on olefins and aromatics provide credible data and analysis to support your annual sales and strategy planning by giving you all of the following
- Comprehensive market overviews with detailed regional supply data and company profiles for 2013-2017
- In-depth downstream demand analysis and forecasts - Detailed import analysis between 2012-2014
Enquire about the annual studies
Request a free trial
Supply and demand data We give you an end-to-end perspective across the global petrochemical and refinery supply chain enabling you to grasp the local or regional scenario in a global context Data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2030
Request a free demo
- Benzene- Cumene- Paraxylene ndash Orthoxylene- Styrene
wwwiciscom 57
Bringing you faster more effective ways to improve productivity and decision making
Data ExpressAccess manage and analyse data easier than ever before with our Data Express solutions
bull Excel Plug-in - instantly update your worksheets in Excelbull API ndash stream the latest data directly to your systems
Set up email alerts for the most fluid markets to help you stay on top of market movements and enable you to react faster to price changes and other major developments
Market Alerts
Enquire about our market alerts
Build chart and track your formulas and keep them all in one place using real-time pricing data via the ICIS Dashboard
Formula Builder
Request a trial
wwwiciscom 31
Chinarsquos PE deficit to continue
wwwiciscom 32wwwiciscom 32
Asia ethylene market to remain tight in 2016
Low-cost US PE exports likely to begin in late 2017 operations of naphtha-based integrated producers in Asia may be impacted
Conclusion
wwwiciscom 33
Asiarsquos toluene and benzene trade flows
wwwiciscom 34
Drivers of Asiarsquos toluene trade flow
wwwiciscom 35wwwiciscom 35
Asiarsquos TOL prices still tracks PX but relationship may weaken on narrower TDP spreads wider toluene-naphtha gap
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
160002
-Jan
-201
422
-Jan
-201
412
-Feb
-201
404
-Mar
-201
424
-Mar
-201
411
-Apr
-201
401
-May
-201
421
-May
-201
410
-Jun
-201
430
-Jun
-201
418
-Jul
-201
407
-Aug
-201
427
-Aug
-201
416
-Sep
-201
406
-Oct
-201
424
-Oct
-201
413
-Nov
-201
403
-Dec
-201
423
-Dec
-201
421
-Jan
-201
510
-Feb
-201
504
-Mar
-201
524
-Mar
-201
513
-Apr
-201
504
-May
-201
522
-May
-201
511
-Jun
-201
501
-Jul
-201
521
-Jul
-201
511
-Aug
-201
531
-Aug
-201
518
-Sep
-201
508
-Oct
-201
528
-Oct
-201
517
-Nov
-201
507
-Dec
-201
504
-Jan
-201
622
-Jan
-201
615
-Feb
-201
604
-Mar
-201
624
-Mar
-201
6
TDP spread (U
SDtonne)
USD
tonn
e
TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Toluene FOB K PX CFR CN
CF 094
CF 095
CF = correlation factor
CF 092
CF= 093
Healthy margins prevailed in 2014 supporting the closer relationship between PX and TOL prices
Margins turned largely negative in 2015 weakening the relationship slightly Strong blend value (BV) of TOL had larger impact on prices
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 36wwwiciscom 36
Wider toluene-naphtha spread since end-2015 increased toluene selling impetus instead of downstream usage allocation
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400Price spread (U
SDtonne)
USD
tonn
e
Toluene-Naphtha spread Naphtha CFR Japan Toluene FOB South Korea
Heavy speculation low Chinese + Indian inventory healthy PX spread led to widened spread in Q1 2016
Price increases supported by start-up of UAC higher usage of TOL for TDP units in addition to summer blending season
Breakeven level
Ave = 230Ave = 170Ave = 170
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 37wwwiciscom 37
TOL heavily placed in blending pool in 2015 capping op rates of downstream TDPs 2016 situation may be reversed
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
USD
tonn
e
Toluene blend value Toluene FOB Korea prices
95-TOL CF= 090
Strong TOL BV in H1 of 2014 results in the price support from gasoline blending strengthening relationship between the two
FOB K prices consistently higher than BV difficult to find demand from blending pool
95-TOL CF= 06895-TOL CF= 090
TOL BV surpasses TOL FOB K making it possible to be placed into blending pool for most of 2015
CF = correlation factorSource ICIS
wwwiciscom 38wwwiciscom 38
Chinese inventories have heavy influence on buying interest Q1 shortage supported sellersrsquo decision to offload more TOL
Ave = 103kt Ave = 903kt Ave = 89kt
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
USD
tonne0
00 to
nnes
east China south China CFR China price Import parity price of CNY cargoes
Strong demand from gasoline blending sector and cargo delays result in 3-year low inventories
Period of strong demand
Previously overbought slow offtake after LNY
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 39
S Korearsquos importexport position for TOL dependent on TDP spreads switch in production strategies in Q1 2016
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
50
100
150
200
25003
-Jan
-201
424
-Jan
-201
414
-Feb
-201
407
-Mar
-201
428
-Mar
-201
418
-Apr
-201
409
-May
-201
430
-May
-201
420
-Jun
-201
411
-Jul
-201
401
-Aug
-201
422
-Aug
-201
412
-Sep
-201
403
-Oct
-201
424
-Oct
-201
414
-Nov
-201
405
-Dec
-201
426
-Dec
-201
423
-Jan
-201
513
-Feb
-201
506
-Mar
-201
527
-Mar
-201
517
-Apr
-201
508
-May
-201
529
-May
-201
519
-Jun
-201
510
-Jul
-201
531
-Jul
-201
521
-Aug
-201
511
-Sep
-201
502
-Oct
-201
523
-Oct
-201
513
-Nov
-201
504
-Dec
-201
525
-Dec
-201
522
-Jan
-201
612
-Feb
-201
604
-Mar
-201
625
-Mar
-201
615
-Apr
-201
6
Qty in lsquo000 tonnes
USD
tonn
e
TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Exports from S Korea Imports to S Korea
Start up of UACrsquos TDP
Slight strategy switch as low Chinese inventories strong naphtha-TOL spread since Q1 leads to stronger TOL selling interest
Overall drop in TDP spreads from mid-2014 results in selling interest switch to net exporter
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 40
Heavier downstream unit turnarounds and production adjustments led to more S Korea-origin exports
H1 2015 H1 2016
0
20
40
60
80
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Qty
in 0
00 to
nnes
South Korea exports
China Taiwan Vietnam US Japan Singapore India Others
Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 13 00Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 00 00 18 00Hyundai Cosmo TDP Daesan 00 00 00 50 200 00S Oil No 2 TDP Onsan 00 00 00 200 00 00
00 00 00 250 231 00Producer LocationLG Chem Daesan 00 00 23 23 00 00YNCC No 1 Yeosu 00 00 00 00 50 50Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 00 00 00 08 63 00Lotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 23 00 00S Oil No 2 Onsan 00 00 124 267 00 00SKGC Incheon 67 00 00 00 00 00
67 00 147 321 113 50
Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)
Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)
Source ICIS
Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 00 87Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 27 00 00 00OCI TDI Kunsan 00 06 00 00 00 00GSCX STDP Yeosu 00 00 00 583 82 00Hanwha Total TDP Daesan 00 00 222 278 00 00SKGC TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 00 49 208LG H D A Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38
38 45 288 899 169 333Producer Location Hanwha Total Daesan 00 00 153 191 00 00GSCX Yeosu 00 00 00 174 49 00Lotte Chem Yeosu 00 00 00 47 16 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 00 78 333YNCC Yeosu 00 00 33 17 00 00
00 00 186 428 143 333
Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)
Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)
wwwiciscom 41wwwiciscom 41
NE Asia and SE Asia exports to China rise since H2 2015 on healthy netbacks strong demand
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
USD
tonne
Qty
in 0
00 to
nnes
Others
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
Import parity of domesticcargoesFOB South Korea prices
Increase in selling to China because of healthy netbacks weak TDP spread
Narrow gap results in fewer imports in line with FOB K price support from PX
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 42wwwiciscom 42
Exports from Asia to US market sporadic highly dependent on price gap gasoline blending season and Asia demand
0
10
20
30
40
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250Q
ty in 000 tonnesU
SDto
nne
Price gap (Asia prompt vs US forward) Exports from Asia to US
Open arbitrage opportunities result in increase of Asia exports
Consistent upward trend leads to selling interest
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 43wwwiciscom 43
India TOL imports mainly from SE Asia and Iran
46
23
17
37
4
2014
Singapore Thailand Iran S Korea Europe Others
2015
50
24
9
37
7
Source customs data
Total= 288kt Total= 288kt
wwwiciscom 44wwwiciscom 44
NE Asia TOL supply could outstrip demand in H2 2016 on heavier downstream turnarounds permanent shutdowns
H2 2015 H2 2016
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S Oil Onsan old TDP Onsan 00 42 42 00 00 00
00 42 42 00 00 00FCFC Aroma 2 TDP Mailiao 67 200 00 00 00 00
67 200 00 00 00 00JX Nippon Oil TDP Mizushima A 00 00 75 75 00 00
00 00 75 75 00 0067 242 117 75 00 00
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecLotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 73 25 00KPIC Ulsan 00 00 00 83 00 00S Oil No 1 Onsan 00 146 146 00 00 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 167 333 00OCI Yeosu 00 00 00 33 00 00
00 146 146 357 358 00Mitsui Chemicals Chiba 00 00 00 83 83 00JX Nippon Oil Mizushima A 00 00 117 233 00 00Tonen General Wakayama 00 00 00 69 92 00
00 00 117 385 175 00FCFC Aroma No 2 Mailiao 83 250 00 00 00 00CPC No 6 Kaohsiung 40 00 20 80 20 00CPC No3 Kaoshiung 00 00 00 00 83 55
123 250 20 80 103 55123 396 283 822 636 55
Est TOL consumption loss from KR
Est TOL consumption loss from TW
Est TOL production loss from KR
Total est consumption loss from NE Asia
Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia
CONSUMPTION (mt)
PRODUCTION (mt)
Est TOL consumption loss from JPN
Est TOL production loss from JPN
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUlsan Aromatics Center TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 1000 500 00SKGC TDP Incheon 00 00 00 83 42 00LG Chem H D A (shut since Jan) Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38
38 38 38 1122 580 38Taiyo Oil TDP cut rate only Kikuma 42 07 00 00 00 00MSNC TDI (shut since April) Omuta 65 65 65 65 65 65
107 72 65 65 65 65145 110 103 1187 645 103
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSKGC Incheon 00 00 00 133 67 00
00 00 00 133 67 00Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 00 00 108 108 00 00JFEC Chiba 00 00 14 42 00 00
00 00 122 150 00 00CPC No 7 Kaohsiung 00 00 00 27 108 00CPC No 3 Kaohsiung 110 00 00 00 00 00
110 00 00 27 108 00110 00 122 310 175 00
Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia
PRODUCTION (mt)
CONSUMPTION (mt)
Est TOL consumption loss from KR
Est TOL consumption loss from JPNTotal est consumption loss from NE Asia
Est TOL production loss from KR
Est TOL production loss from JPN
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016
Qty
in to
nnes
Total est consumption loss from NE Asia Total est production loss from NE AsiaSource ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45
Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance
Source ICIS
bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016
bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread
bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption
bull Improvements in TOL blend values
bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading
bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer
bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers
bull Other competitively priced blendstocks
bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL
bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China
TOL supply
TOL demand
Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors
wwwiciscom 46
Drivers of benzene trade flow
wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47
-60-40-200204060
500550600650700750800850900
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea
China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016
020000400006000080000
100000120000140000160000180000200000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Tonn
es
Others
MiddleEastThailand
Malaysia
Taiwan
Japan
SouthKorea
China imports
Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand
Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance
Strong appetite for imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48
Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
Pric
e ($
tonn
e)
Tonn
es
Shore tank inventories
E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity
2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite
Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains
Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49
-80-60-40-20020406080100
500550600650700750800850900950
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15
Tonn
es
OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea
Imports from Asia increase
Imports lower due to higher China prices
S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015
Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates
US imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50
Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600Ja
n-14
Feb-
14M
ar-1
4A
pr-1
4M
ay-1
4Ju
n-14
Jul-1
4A
ug-1
4Se
p-14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Dec
-14
Jan-
15Fe
b-15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
May
-15
Jun-
15Ju
l-15
Aug
-15
Sep-
15O
ct-1
5N
ov-1
5D
ec-1
5Ja
n-16
Feb-
16M
ar-1
6A
pr-1
6
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)Naphtha-Benzene
Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene
$346t $193t $230t
wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51
S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32
Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300
SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15
YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37
2015 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25
S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25
SK Global Chem Incheon 200
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16
OthersTaiwanChinaUS
S Korea exports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52
Outlook increased supply likely to head to China
Source ICIS industry
Company Location BZ Start up period
Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016
Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16
Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos
(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul
Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16
Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16
Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16
Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017
Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex
Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017
Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017
KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017
Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017
Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726
Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322
Product Company Location Capacity(kta)
BZ usage Start up period
SM
Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16
Donghao China 300 240 May-16
Phenol
PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16
Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16
Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17
PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017
Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017
CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17
CPL
Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16
China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16
Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16
MDI
Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017
Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017
Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017
Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972
Consumption within China in 2016 637 655
wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53
Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season
S Korea 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75
BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0
S Korea 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5
KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26
S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13
BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3
Japan 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36
Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12
BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0
Japan 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23
Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24
JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24
BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17
Source ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54
BZ demandBZ supply
bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China
bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ
bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene
bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units
bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher
bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure
bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed
bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand
Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55
Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom
Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom
Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom
Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom
wwwiciscom 56
Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets
Pricing information
- ButadieneC4s- Ethylene
Request your free sample report gtgt
We produce reliable price assessments and analyses covering Asian aromatics and olefins markets including price histories and a 12-month rolling price forecast enabling you to understand price drivers and settle your contract prices more confidently Our pricing coverage includes
- Mixed xylenes
- Propylene- Toluene
Real-time news serviceBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news including updates on plant capacities output and shutdowns
In-depth analysis of ChinaThe comprehensive studies on olefins and aromatics provide credible data and analysis to support your annual sales and strategy planning by giving you all of the following
- Comprehensive market overviews with detailed regional supply data and company profiles for 2013-2017
- In-depth downstream demand analysis and forecasts - Detailed import analysis between 2012-2014
Enquire about the annual studies
Request a free trial
Supply and demand data We give you an end-to-end perspective across the global petrochemical and refinery supply chain enabling you to grasp the local or regional scenario in a global context Data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2030
Request a free demo
- Benzene- Cumene- Paraxylene ndash Orthoxylene- Styrene
wwwiciscom 57
Bringing you faster more effective ways to improve productivity and decision making
Data ExpressAccess manage and analyse data easier than ever before with our Data Express solutions
bull Excel Plug-in - instantly update your worksheets in Excelbull API ndash stream the latest data directly to your systems
Set up email alerts for the most fluid markets to help you stay on top of market movements and enable you to react faster to price changes and other major developments
Market Alerts
Enquire about our market alerts
Build chart and track your formulas and keep them all in one place using real-time pricing data via the ICIS Dashboard
Formula Builder
Request a trial
wwwiciscom 32wwwiciscom 32
Asia ethylene market to remain tight in 2016
Low-cost US PE exports likely to begin in late 2017 operations of naphtha-based integrated producers in Asia may be impacted
Conclusion
wwwiciscom 33
Asiarsquos toluene and benzene trade flows
wwwiciscom 34
Drivers of Asiarsquos toluene trade flow
wwwiciscom 35wwwiciscom 35
Asiarsquos TOL prices still tracks PX but relationship may weaken on narrower TDP spreads wider toluene-naphtha gap
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
160002
-Jan
-201
422
-Jan
-201
412
-Feb
-201
404
-Mar
-201
424
-Mar
-201
411
-Apr
-201
401
-May
-201
421
-May
-201
410
-Jun
-201
430
-Jun
-201
418
-Jul
-201
407
-Aug
-201
427
-Aug
-201
416
-Sep
-201
406
-Oct
-201
424
-Oct
-201
413
-Nov
-201
403
-Dec
-201
423
-Dec
-201
421
-Jan
-201
510
-Feb
-201
504
-Mar
-201
524
-Mar
-201
513
-Apr
-201
504
-May
-201
522
-May
-201
511
-Jun
-201
501
-Jul
-201
521
-Jul
-201
511
-Aug
-201
531
-Aug
-201
518
-Sep
-201
508
-Oct
-201
528
-Oct
-201
517
-Nov
-201
507
-Dec
-201
504
-Jan
-201
622
-Jan
-201
615
-Feb
-201
604
-Mar
-201
624
-Mar
-201
6
TDP spread (U
SDtonne)
USD
tonn
e
TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Toluene FOB K PX CFR CN
CF 094
CF 095
CF = correlation factor
CF 092
CF= 093
Healthy margins prevailed in 2014 supporting the closer relationship between PX and TOL prices
Margins turned largely negative in 2015 weakening the relationship slightly Strong blend value (BV) of TOL had larger impact on prices
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 36wwwiciscom 36
Wider toluene-naphtha spread since end-2015 increased toluene selling impetus instead of downstream usage allocation
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400Price spread (U
SDtonne)
USD
tonn
e
Toluene-Naphtha spread Naphtha CFR Japan Toluene FOB South Korea
Heavy speculation low Chinese + Indian inventory healthy PX spread led to widened spread in Q1 2016
Price increases supported by start-up of UAC higher usage of TOL for TDP units in addition to summer blending season
Breakeven level
Ave = 230Ave = 170Ave = 170
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 37wwwiciscom 37
TOL heavily placed in blending pool in 2015 capping op rates of downstream TDPs 2016 situation may be reversed
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
USD
tonn
e
Toluene blend value Toluene FOB Korea prices
95-TOL CF= 090
Strong TOL BV in H1 of 2014 results in the price support from gasoline blending strengthening relationship between the two
FOB K prices consistently higher than BV difficult to find demand from blending pool
95-TOL CF= 06895-TOL CF= 090
TOL BV surpasses TOL FOB K making it possible to be placed into blending pool for most of 2015
CF = correlation factorSource ICIS
wwwiciscom 38wwwiciscom 38
Chinese inventories have heavy influence on buying interest Q1 shortage supported sellersrsquo decision to offload more TOL
Ave = 103kt Ave = 903kt Ave = 89kt
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
USD
tonne0
00 to
nnes
east China south China CFR China price Import parity price of CNY cargoes
Strong demand from gasoline blending sector and cargo delays result in 3-year low inventories
Period of strong demand
Previously overbought slow offtake after LNY
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 39
S Korearsquos importexport position for TOL dependent on TDP spreads switch in production strategies in Q1 2016
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
50
100
150
200
25003
-Jan
-201
424
-Jan
-201
414
-Feb
-201
407
-Mar
-201
428
-Mar
-201
418
-Apr
-201
409
-May
-201
430
-May
-201
420
-Jun
-201
411
-Jul
-201
401
-Aug
-201
422
-Aug
-201
412
-Sep
-201
403
-Oct
-201
424
-Oct
-201
414
-Nov
-201
405
-Dec
-201
426
-Dec
-201
423
-Jan
-201
513
-Feb
-201
506
-Mar
-201
527
-Mar
-201
517
-Apr
-201
508
-May
-201
529
-May
-201
519
-Jun
-201
510
-Jul
-201
531
-Jul
-201
521
-Aug
-201
511
-Sep
-201
502
-Oct
-201
523
-Oct
-201
513
-Nov
-201
504
-Dec
-201
525
-Dec
-201
522
-Jan
-201
612
-Feb
-201
604
-Mar
-201
625
-Mar
-201
615
-Apr
-201
6
Qty in lsquo000 tonnes
USD
tonn
e
TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Exports from S Korea Imports to S Korea
Start up of UACrsquos TDP
Slight strategy switch as low Chinese inventories strong naphtha-TOL spread since Q1 leads to stronger TOL selling interest
Overall drop in TDP spreads from mid-2014 results in selling interest switch to net exporter
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 40
Heavier downstream unit turnarounds and production adjustments led to more S Korea-origin exports
H1 2015 H1 2016
0
20
40
60
80
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Qty
in 0
00 to
nnes
South Korea exports
China Taiwan Vietnam US Japan Singapore India Others
Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 13 00Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 00 00 18 00Hyundai Cosmo TDP Daesan 00 00 00 50 200 00S Oil No 2 TDP Onsan 00 00 00 200 00 00
00 00 00 250 231 00Producer LocationLG Chem Daesan 00 00 23 23 00 00YNCC No 1 Yeosu 00 00 00 00 50 50Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 00 00 00 08 63 00Lotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 23 00 00S Oil No 2 Onsan 00 00 124 267 00 00SKGC Incheon 67 00 00 00 00 00
67 00 147 321 113 50
Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)
Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)
Source ICIS
Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 00 87Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 27 00 00 00OCI TDI Kunsan 00 06 00 00 00 00GSCX STDP Yeosu 00 00 00 583 82 00Hanwha Total TDP Daesan 00 00 222 278 00 00SKGC TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 00 49 208LG H D A Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38
38 45 288 899 169 333Producer Location Hanwha Total Daesan 00 00 153 191 00 00GSCX Yeosu 00 00 00 174 49 00Lotte Chem Yeosu 00 00 00 47 16 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 00 78 333YNCC Yeosu 00 00 33 17 00 00
00 00 186 428 143 333
Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)
Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)
wwwiciscom 41wwwiciscom 41
NE Asia and SE Asia exports to China rise since H2 2015 on healthy netbacks strong demand
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
USD
tonne
Qty
in 0
00 to
nnes
Others
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
Import parity of domesticcargoesFOB South Korea prices
Increase in selling to China because of healthy netbacks weak TDP spread
Narrow gap results in fewer imports in line with FOB K price support from PX
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 42wwwiciscom 42
Exports from Asia to US market sporadic highly dependent on price gap gasoline blending season and Asia demand
0
10
20
30
40
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250Q
ty in 000 tonnesU
SDto
nne
Price gap (Asia prompt vs US forward) Exports from Asia to US
Open arbitrage opportunities result in increase of Asia exports
Consistent upward trend leads to selling interest
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 43wwwiciscom 43
India TOL imports mainly from SE Asia and Iran
46
23
17
37
4
2014
Singapore Thailand Iran S Korea Europe Others
2015
50
24
9
37
7
Source customs data
Total= 288kt Total= 288kt
wwwiciscom 44wwwiciscom 44
NE Asia TOL supply could outstrip demand in H2 2016 on heavier downstream turnarounds permanent shutdowns
H2 2015 H2 2016
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S Oil Onsan old TDP Onsan 00 42 42 00 00 00
00 42 42 00 00 00FCFC Aroma 2 TDP Mailiao 67 200 00 00 00 00
67 200 00 00 00 00JX Nippon Oil TDP Mizushima A 00 00 75 75 00 00
00 00 75 75 00 0067 242 117 75 00 00
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecLotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 73 25 00KPIC Ulsan 00 00 00 83 00 00S Oil No 1 Onsan 00 146 146 00 00 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 167 333 00OCI Yeosu 00 00 00 33 00 00
00 146 146 357 358 00Mitsui Chemicals Chiba 00 00 00 83 83 00JX Nippon Oil Mizushima A 00 00 117 233 00 00Tonen General Wakayama 00 00 00 69 92 00
00 00 117 385 175 00FCFC Aroma No 2 Mailiao 83 250 00 00 00 00CPC No 6 Kaohsiung 40 00 20 80 20 00CPC No3 Kaoshiung 00 00 00 00 83 55
123 250 20 80 103 55123 396 283 822 636 55
Est TOL consumption loss from KR
Est TOL consumption loss from TW
Est TOL production loss from KR
Total est consumption loss from NE Asia
Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia
CONSUMPTION (mt)
PRODUCTION (mt)
Est TOL consumption loss from JPN
Est TOL production loss from JPN
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUlsan Aromatics Center TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 1000 500 00SKGC TDP Incheon 00 00 00 83 42 00LG Chem H D A (shut since Jan) Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38
38 38 38 1122 580 38Taiyo Oil TDP cut rate only Kikuma 42 07 00 00 00 00MSNC TDI (shut since April) Omuta 65 65 65 65 65 65
107 72 65 65 65 65145 110 103 1187 645 103
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSKGC Incheon 00 00 00 133 67 00
00 00 00 133 67 00Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 00 00 108 108 00 00JFEC Chiba 00 00 14 42 00 00
00 00 122 150 00 00CPC No 7 Kaohsiung 00 00 00 27 108 00CPC No 3 Kaohsiung 110 00 00 00 00 00
110 00 00 27 108 00110 00 122 310 175 00
Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia
PRODUCTION (mt)
CONSUMPTION (mt)
Est TOL consumption loss from KR
Est TOL consumption loss from JPNTotal est consumption loss from NE Asia
Est TOL production loss from KR
Est TOL production loss from JPN
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016
Qty
in to
nnes
Total est consumption loss from NE Asia Total est production loss from NE AsiaSource ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45
Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance
Source ICIS
bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016
bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread
bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption
bull Improvements in TOL blend values
bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading
bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer
bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers
bull Other competitively priced blendstocks
bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL
bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China
TOL supply
TOL demand
Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors
wwwiciscom 46
Drivers of benzene trade flow
wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47
-60-40-200204060
500550600650700750800850900
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea
China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016
020000400006000080000
100000120000140000160000180000200000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Tonn
es
Others
MiddleEastThailand
Malaysia
Taiwan
Japan
SouthKorea
China imports
Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand
Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance
Strong appetite for imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48
Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
Pric
e ($
tonn
e)
Tonn
es
Shore tank inventories
E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity
2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite
Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains
Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49
-80-60-40-20020406080100
500550600650700750800850900950
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15
Tonn
es
OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea
Imports from Asia increase
Imports lower due to higher China prices
S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015
Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates
US imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50
Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600Ja
n-14
Feb-
14M
ar-1
4A
pr-1
4M
ay-1
4Ju
n-14
Jul-1
4A
ug-1
4Se
p-14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Dec
-14
Jan-
15Fe
b-15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
May
-15
Jun-
15Ju
l-15
Aug
-15
Sep-
15O
ct-1
5N
ov-1
5D
ec-1
5Ja
n-16
Feb-
16M
ar-1
6A
pr-1
6
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)Naphtha-Benzene
Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene
$346t $193t $230t
wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51
S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32
Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300
SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15
YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37
2015 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25
S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25
SK Global Chem Incheon 200
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16
OthersTaiwanChinaUS
S Korea exports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52
Outlook increased supply likely to head to China
Source ICIS industry
Company Location BZ Start up period
Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016
Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16
Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos
(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul
Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16
Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16
Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16
Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017
Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex
Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017
Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017
KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017
Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017
Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726
Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322
Product Company Location Capacity(kta)
BZ usage Start up period
SM
Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16
Donghao China 300 240 May-16
Phenol
PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16
Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16
Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17
PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017
Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017
CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17
CPL
Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16
China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16
Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16
MDI
Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017
Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017
Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017
Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972
Consumption within China in 2016 637 655
wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53
Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season
S Korea 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75
BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0
S Korea 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5
KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26
S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13
BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3
Japan 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36
Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12
BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0
Japan 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23
Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24
JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24
BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17
Source ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54
BZ demandBZ supply
bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China
bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ
bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene
bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units
bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher
bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure
bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed
bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand
Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55
Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom
Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom
Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom
Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom
wwwiciscom 56
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wwwiciscom 57
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wwwiciscom 33
Asiarsquos toluene and benzene trade flows
wwwiciscom 34
Drivers of Asiarsquos toluene trade flow
wwwiciscom 35wwwiciscom 35
Asiarsquos TOL prices still tracks PX but relationship may weaken on narrower TDP spreads wider toluene-naphtha gap
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
160002
-Jan
-201
422
-Jan
-201
412
-Feb
-201
404
-Mar
-201
424
-Mar
-201
411
-Apr
-201
401
-May
-201
421
-May
-201
410
-Jun
-201
430
-Jun
-201
418
-Jul
-201
407
-Aug
-201
427
-Aug
-201
416
-Sep
-201
406
-Oct
-201
424
-Oct
-201
413
-Nov
-201
403
-Dec
-201
423
-Dec
-201
421
-Jan
-201
510
-Feb
-201
504
-Mar
-201
524
-Mar
-201
513
-Apr
-201
504
-May
-201
522
-May
-201
511
-Jun
-201
501
-Jul
-201
521
-Jul
-201
511
-Aug
-201
531
-Aug
-201
518
-Sep
-201
508
-Oct
-201
528
-Oct
-201
517
-Nov
-201
507
-Dec
-201
504
-Jan
-201
622
-Jan
-201
615
-Feb
-201
604
-Mar
-201
624
-Mar
-201
6
TDP spread (U
SDtonne)
USD
tonn
e
TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Toluene FOB K PX CFR CN
CF 094
CF 095
CF = correlation factor
CF 092
CF= 093
Healthy margins prevailed in 2014 supporting the closer relationship between PX and TOL prices
Margins turned largely negative in 2015 weakening the relationship slightly Strong blend value (BV) of TOL had larger impact on prices
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 36wwwiciscom 36
Wider toluene-naphtha spread since end-2015 increased toluene selling impetus instead of downstream usage allocation
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400Price spread (U
SDtonne)
USD
tonn
e
Toluene-Naphtha spread Naphtha CFR Japan Toluene FOB South Korea
Heavy speculation low Chinese + Indian inventory healthy PX spread led to widened spread in Q1 2016
Price increases supported by start-up of UAC higher usage of TOL for TDP units in addition to summer blending season
Breakeven level
Ave = 230Ave = 170Ave = 170
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 37wwwiciscom 37
TOL heavily placed in blending pool in 2015 capping op rates of downstream TDPs 2016 situation may be reversed
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
USD
tonn
e
Toluene blend value Toluene FOB Korea prices
95-TOL CF= 090
Strong TOL BV in H1 of 2014 results in the price support from gasoline blending strengthening relationship between the two
FOB K prices consistently higher than BV difficult to find demand from blending pool
95-TOL CF= 06895-TOL CF= 090
TOL BV surpasses TOL FOB K making it possible to be placed into blending pool for most of 2015
CF = correlation factorSource ICIS
wwwiciscom 38wwwiciscom 38
Chinese inventories have heavy influence on buying interest Q1 shortage supported sellersrsquo decision to offload more TOL
Ave = 103kt Ave = 903kt Ave = 89kt
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
USD
tonne0
00 to
nnes
east China south China CFR China price Import parity price of CNY cargoes
Strong demand from gasoline blending sector and cargo delays result in 3-year low inventories
Period of strong demand
Previously overbought slow offtake after LNY
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 39
S Korearsquos importexport position for TOL dependent on TDP spreads switch in production strategies in Q1 2016
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
50
100
150
200
25003
-Jan
-201
424
-Jan
-201
414
-Feb
-201
407
-Mar
-201
428
-Mar
-201
418
-Apr
-201
409
-May
-201
430
-May
-201
420
-Jun
-201
411
-Jul
-201
401
-Aug
-201
422
-Aug
-201
412
-Sep
-201
403
-Oct
-201
424
-Oct
-201
414
-Nov
-201
405
-Dec
-201
426
-Dec
-201
423
-Jan
-201
513
-Feb
-201
506
-Mar
-201
527
-Mar
-201
517
-Apr
-201
508
-May
-201
529
-May
-201
519
-Jun
-201
510
-Jul
-201
531
-Jul
-201
521
-Aug
-201
511
-Sep
-201
502
-Oct
-201
523
-Oct
-201
513
-Nov
-201
504
-Dec
-201
525
-Dec
-201
522
-Jan
-201
612
-Feb
-201
604
-Mar
-201
625
-Mar
-201
615
-Apr
-201
6
Qty in lsquo000 tonnes
USD
tonn
e
TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Exports from S Korea Imports to S Korea
Start up of UACrsquos TDP
Slight strategy switch as low Chinese inventories strong naphtha-TOL spread since Q1 leads to stronger TOL selling interest
Overall drop in TDP spreads from mid-2014 results in selling interest switch to net exporter
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 40
Heavier downstream unit turnarounds and production adjustments led to more S Korea-origin exports
H1 2015 H1 2016
0
20
40
60
80
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Qty
in 0
00 to
nnes
South Korea exports
China Taiwan Vietnam US Japan Singapore India Others
Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 13 00Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 00 00 18 00Hyundai Cosmo TDP Daesan 00 00 00 50 200 00S Oil No 2 TDP Onsan 00 00 00 200 00 00
00 00 00 250 231 00Producer LocationLG Chem Daesan 00 00 23 23 00 00YNCC No 1 Yeosu 00 00 00 00 50 50Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 00 00 00 08 63 00Lotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 23 00 00S Oil No 2 Onsan 00 00 124 267 00 00SKGC Incheon 67 00 00 00 00 00
67 00 147 321 113 50
Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)
Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)
Source ICIS
Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 00 87Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 27 00 00 00OCI TDI Kunsan 00 06 00 00 00 00GSCX STDP Yeosu 00 00 00 583 82 00Hanwha Total TDP Daesan 00 00 222 278 00 00SKGC TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 00 49 208LG H D A Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38
38 45 288 899 169 333Producer Location Hanwha Total Daesan 00 00 153 191 00 00GSCX Yeosu 00 00 00 174 49 00Lotte Chem Yeosu 00 00 00 47 16 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 00 78 333YNCC Yeosu 00 00 33 17 00 00
00 00 186 428 143 333
Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)
Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)
wwwiciscom 41wwwiciscom 41
NE Asia and SE Asia exports to China rise since H2 2015 on healthy netbacks strong demand
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
USD
tonne
Qty
in 0
00 to
nnes
Others
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
Import parity of domesticcargoesFOB South Korea prices
Increase in selling to China because of healthy netbacks weak TDP spread
Narrow gap results in fewer imports in line with FOB K price support from PX
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 42wwwiciscom 42
Exports from Asia to US market sporadic highly dependent on price gap gasoline blending season and Asia demand
0
10
20
30
40
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250Q
ty in 000 tonnesU
SDto
nne
Price gap (Asia prompt vs US forward) Exports from Asia to US
Open arbitrage opportunities result in increase of Asia exports
Consistent upward trend leads to selling interest
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 43wwwiciscom 43
India TOL imports mainly from SE Asia and Iran
46
23
17
37
4
2014
Singapore Thailand Iran S Korea Europe Others
2015
50
24
9
37
7
Source customs data
Total= 288kt Total= 288kt
wwwiciscom 44wwwiciscom 44
NE Asia TOL supply could outstrip demand in H2 2016 on heavier downstream turnarounds permanent shutdowns
H2 2015 H2 2016
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S Oil Onsan old TDP Onsan 00 42 42 00 00 00
00 42 42 00 00 00FCFC Aroma 2 TDP Mailiao 67 200 00 00 00 00
67 200 00 00 00 00JX Nippon Oil TDP Mizushima A 00 00 75 75 00 00
00 00 75 75 00 0067 242 117 75 00 00
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecLotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 73 25 00KPIC Ulsan 00 00 00 83 00 00S Oil No 1 Onsan 00 146 146 00 00 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 167 333 00OCI Yeosu 00 00 00 33 00 00
00 146 146 357 358 00Mitsui Chemicals Chiba 00 00 00 83 83 00JX Nippon Oil Mizushima A 00 00 117 233 00 00Tonen General Wakayama 00 00 00 69 92 00
00 00 117 385 175 00FCFC Aroma No 2 Mailiao 83 250 00 00 00 00CPC No 6 Kaohsiung 40 00 20 80 20 00CPC No3 Kaoshiung 00 00 00 00 83 55
123 250 20 80 103 55123 396 283 822 636 55
Est TOL consumption loss from KR
Est TOL consumption loss from TW
Est TOL production loss from KR
Total est consumption loss from NE Asia
Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia
CONSUMPTION (mt)
PRODUCTION (mt)
Est TOL consumption loss from JPN
Est TOL production loss from JPN
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUlsan Aromatics Center TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 1000 500 00SKGC TDP Incheon 00 00 00 83 42 00LG Chem H D A (shut since Jan) Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38
38 38 38 1122 580 38Taiyo Oil TDP cut rate only Kikuma 42 07 00 00 00 00MSNC TDI (shut since April) Omuta 65 65 65 65 65 65
107 72 65 65 65 65145 110 103 1187 645 103
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSKGC Incheon 00 00 00 133 67 00
00 00 00 133 67 00Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 00 00 108 108 00 00JFEC Chiba 00 00 14 42 00 00
00 00 122 150 00 00CPC No 7 Kaohsiung 00 00 00 27 108 00CPC No 3 Kaohsiung 110 00 00 00 00 00
110 00 00 27 108 00110 00 122 310 175 00
Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia
PRODUCTION (mt)
CONSUMPTION (mt)
Est TOL consumption loss from KR
Est TOL consumption loss from JPNTotal est consumption loss from NE Asia
Est TOL production loss from KR
Est TOL production loss from JPN
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016
Qty
in to
nnes
Total est consumption loss from NE Asia Total est production loss from NE AsiaSource ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45
Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance
Source ICIS
bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016
bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread
bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption
bull Improvements in TOL blend values
bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading
bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer
bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers
bull Other competitively priced blendstocks
bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL
bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China
TOL supply
TOL demand
Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors
wwwiciscom 46
Drivers of benzene trade flow
wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47
-60-40-200204060
500550600650700750800850900
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea
China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016
020000400006000080000
100000120000140000160000180000200000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Tonn
es
Others
MiddleEastThailand
Malaysia
Taiwan
Japan
SouthKorea
China imports
Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand
Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance
Strong appetite for imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48
Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
Pric
e ($
tonn
e)
Tonn
es
Shore tank inventories
E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity
2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite
Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains
Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49
-80-60-40-20020406080100
500550600650700750800850900950
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15
Tonn
es
OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea
Imports from Asia increase
Imports lower due to higher China prices
S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015
Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates
US imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50
Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600Ja
n-14
Feb-
14M
ar-1
4A
pr-1
4M
ay-1
4Ju
n-14
Jul-1
4A
ug-1
4Se
p-14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Dec
-14
Jan-
15Fe
b-15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
May
-15
Jun-
15Ju
l-15
Aug
-15
Sep-
15O
ct-1
5N
ov-1
5D
ec-1
5Ja
n-16
Feb-
16M
ar-1
6A
pr-1
6
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)Naphtha-Benzene
Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene
$346t $193t $230t
wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51
S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32
Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300
SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15
YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37
2015 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25
S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25
SK Global Chem Incheon 200
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16
OthersTaiwanChinaUS
S Korea exports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52
Outlook increased supply likely to head to China
Source ICIS industry
Company Location BZ Start up period
Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016
Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16
Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos
(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul
Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16
Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16
Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16
Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017
Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex
Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017
Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017
KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017
Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017
Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726
Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322
Product Company Location Capacity(kta)
BZ usage Start up period
SM
Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16
Donghao China 300 240 May-16
Phenol
PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16
Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16
Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17
PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017
Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017
CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17
CPL
Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16
China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16
Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16
MDI
Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017
Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017
Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017
Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972
Consumption within China in 2016 637 655
wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53
Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season
S Korea 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75
BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0
S Korea 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5
KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26
S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13
BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3
Japan 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36
Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12
BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0
Japan 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23
Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24
JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24
BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17
Source ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54
BZ demandBZ supply
bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China
bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ
bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene
bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units
bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher
bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure
bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed
bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand
Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55
Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom
Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom
Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom
Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom
wwwiciscom 56
Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets
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wwwiciscom 57
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wwwiciscom 34
Drivers of Asiarsquos toluene trade flow
wwwiciscom 35wwwiciscom 35
Asiarsquos TOL prices still tracks PX but relationship may weaken on narrower TDP spreads wider toluene-naphtha gap
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
160002
-Jan
-201
422
-Jan
-201
412
-Feb
-201
404
-Mar
-201
424
-Mar
-201
411
-Apr
-201
401
-May
-201
421
-May
-201
410
-Jun
-201
430
-Jun
-201
418
-Jul
-201
407
-Aug
-201
427
-Aug
-201
416
-Sep
-201
406
-Oct
-201
424
-Oct
-201
413
-Nov
-201
403
-Dec
-201
423
-Dec
-201
421
-Jan
-201
510
-Feb
-201
504
-Mar
-201
524
-Mar
-201
513
-Apr
-201
504
-May
-201
522
-May
-201
511
-Jun
-201
501
-Jul
-201
521
-Jul
-201
511
-Aug
-201
531
-Aug
-201
518
-Sep
-201
508
-Oct
-201
528
-Oct
-201
517
-Nov
-201
507
-Dec
-201
504
-Jan
-201
622
-Jan
-201
615
-Feb
-201
604
-Mar
-201
624
-Mar
-201
6
TDP spread (U
SDtonne)
USD
tonn
e
TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Toluene FOB K PX CFR CN
CF 094
CF 095
CF = correlation factor
CF 092
CF= 093
Healthy margins prevailed in 2014 supporting the closer relationship between PX and TOL prices
Margins turned largely negative in 2015 weakening the relationship slightly Strong blend value (BV) of TOL had larger impact on prices
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 36wwwiciscom 36
Wider toluene-naphtha spread since end-2015 increased toluene selling impetus instead of downstream usage allocation
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400Price spread (U
SDtonne)
USD
tonn
e
Toluene-Naphtha spread Naphtha CFR Japan Toluene FOB South Korea
Heavy speculation low Chinese + Indian inventory healthy PX spread led to widened spread in Q1 2016
Price increases supported by start-up of UAC higher usage of TOL for TDP units in addition to summer blending season
Breakeven level
Ave = 230Ave = 170Ave = 170
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 37wwwiciscom 37
TOL heavily placed in blending pool in 2015 capping op rates of downstream TDPs 2016 situation may be reversed
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
USD
tonn
e
Toluene blend value Toluene FOB Korea prices
95-TOL CF= 090
Strong TOL BV in H1 of 2014 results in the price support from gasoline blending strengthening relationship between the two
FOB K prices consistently higher than BV difficult to find demand from blending pool
95-TOL CF= 06895-TOL CF= 090
TOL BV surpasses TOL FOB K making it possible to be placed into blending pool for most of 2015
CF = correlation factorSource ICIS
wwwiciscom 38wwwiciscom 38
Chinese inventories have heavy influence on buying interest Q1 shortage supported sellersrsquo decision to offload more TOL
Ave = 103kt Ave = 903kt Ave = 89kt
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
USD
tonne0
00 to
nnes
east China south China CFR China price Import parity price of CNY cargoes
Strong demand from gasoline blending sector and cargo delays result in 3-year low inventories
Period of strong demand
Previously overbought slow offtake after LNY
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 39
S Korearsquos importexport position for TOL dependent on TDP spreads switch in production strategies in Q1 2016
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
50
100
150
200
25003
-Jan
-201
424
-Jan
-201
414
-Feb
-201
407
-Mar
-201
428
-Mar
-201
418
-Apr
-201
409
-May
-201
430
-May
-201
420
-Jun
-201
411
-Jul
-201
401
-Aug
-201
422
-Aug
-201
412
-Sep
-201
403
-Oct
-201
424
-Oct
-201
414
-Nov
-201
405
-Dec
-201
426
-Dec
-201
423
-Jan
-201
513
-Feb
-201
506
-Mar
-201
527
-Mar
-201
517
-Apr
-201
508
-May
-201
529
-May
-201
519
-Jun
-201
510
-Jul
-201
531
-Jul
-201
521
-Aug
-201
511
-Sep
-201
502
-Oct
-201
523
-Oct
-201
513
-Nov
-201
504
-Dec
-201
525
-Dec
-201
522
-Jan
-201
612
-Feb
-201
604
-Mar
-201
625
-Mar
-201
615
-Apr
-201
6
Qty in lsquo000 tonnes
USD
tonn
e
TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Exports from S Korea Imports to S Korea
Start up of UACrsquos TDP
Slight strategy switch as low Chinese inventories strong naphtha-TOL spread since Q1 leads to stronger TOL selling interest
Overall drop in TDP spreads from mid-2014 results in selling interest switch to net exporter
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 40
Heavier downstream unit turnarounds and production adjustments led to more S Korea-origin exports
H1 2015 H1 2016
0
20
40
60
80
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Qty
in 0
00 to
nnes
South Korea exports
China Taiwan Vietnam US Japan Singapore India Others
Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 13 00Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 00 00 18 00Hyundai Cosmo TDP Daesan 00 00 00 50 200 00S Oil No 2 TDP Onsan 00 00 00 200 00 00
00 00 00 250 231 00Producer LocationLG Chem Daesan 00 00 23 23 00 00YNCC No 1 Yeosu 00 00 00 00 50 50Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 00 00 00 08 63 00Lotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 23 00 00S Oil No 2 Onsan 00 00 124 267 00 00SKGC Incheon 67 00 00 00 00 00
67 00 147 321 113 50
Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)
Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)
Source ICIS
Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 00 87Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 27 00 00 00OCI TDI Kunsan 00 06 00 00 00 00GSCX STDP Yeosu 00 00 00 583 82 00Hanwha Total TDP Daesan 00 00 222 278 00 00SKGC TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 00 49 208LG H D A Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38
38 45 288 899 169 333Producer Location Hanwha Total Daesan 00 00 153 191 00 00GSCX Yeosu 00 00 00 174 49 00Lotte Chem Yeosu 00 00 00 47 16 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 00 78 333YNCC Yeosu 00 00 33 17 00 00
00 00 186 428 143 333
Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)
Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)
wwwiciscom 41wwwiciscom 41
NE Asia and SE Asia exports to China rise since H2 2015 on healthy netbacks strong demand
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
USD
tonne
Qty
in 0
00 to
nnes
Others
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
Import parity of domesticcargoesFOB South Korea prices
Increase in selling to China because of healthy netbacks weak TDP spread
Narrow gap results in fewer imports in line with FOB K price support from PX
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 42wwwiciscom 42
Exports from Asia to US market sporadic highly dependent on price gap gasoline blending season and Asia demand
0
10
20
30
40
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250Q
ty in 000 tonnesU
SDto
nne
Price gap (Asia prompt vs US forward) Exports from Asia to US
Open arbitrage opportunities result in increase of Asia exports
Consistent upward trend leads to selling interest
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 43wwwiciscom 43
India TOL imports mainly from SE Asia and Iran
46
23
17
37
4
2014
Singapore Thailand Iran S Korea Europe Others
2015
50
24
9
37
7
Source customs data
Total= 288kt Total= 288kt
wwwiciscom 44wwwiciscom 44
NE Asia TOL supply could outstrip demand in H2 2016 on heavier downstream turnarounds permanent shutdowns
H2 2015 H2 2016
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S Oil Onsan old TDP Onsan 00 42 42 00 00 00
00 42 42 00 00 00FCFC Aroma 2 TDP Mailiao 67 200 00 00 00 00
67 200 00 00 00 00JX Nippon Oil TDP Mizushima A 00 00 75 75 00 00
00 00 75 75 00 0067 242 117 75 00 00
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecLotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 73 25 00KPIC Ulsan 00 00 00 83 00 00S Oil No 1 Onsan 00 146 146 00 00 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 167 333 00OCI Yeosu 00 00 00 33 00 00
00 146 146 357 358 00Mitsui Chemicals Chiba 00 00 00 83 83 00JX Nippon Oil Mizushima A 00 00 117 233 00 00Tonen General Wakayama 00 00 00 69 92 00
00 00 117 385 175 00FCFC Aroma No 2 Mailiao 83 250 00 00 00 00CPC No 6 Kaohsiung 40 00 20 80 20 00CPC No3 Kaoshiung 00 00 00 00 83 55
123 250 20 80 103 55123 396 283 822 636 55
Est TOL consumption loss from KR
Est TOL consumption loss from TW
Est TOL production loss from KR
Total est consumption loss from NE Asia
Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia
CONSUMPTION (mt)
PRODUCTION (mt)
Est TOL consumption loss from JPN
Est TOL production loss from JPN
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUlsan Aromatics Center TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 1000 500 00SKGC TDP Incheon 00 00 00 83 42 00LG Chem H D A (shut since Jan) Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38
38 38 38 1122 580 38Taiyo Oil TDP cut rate only Kikuma 42 07 00 00 00 00MSNC TDI (shut since April) Omuta 65 65 65 65 65 65
107 72 65 65 65 65145 110 103 1187 645 103
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSKGC Incheon 00 00 00 133 67 00
00 00 00 133 67 00Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 00 00 108 108 00 00JFEC Chiba 00 00 14 42 00 00
00 00 122 150 00 00CPC No 7 Kaohsiung 00 00 00 27 108 00CPC No 3 Kaohsiung 110 00 00 00 00 00
110 00 00 27 108 00110 00 122 310 175 00
Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia
PRODUCTION (mt)
CONSUMPTION (mt)
Est TOL consumption loss from KR
Est TOL consumption loss from JPNTotal est consumption loss from NE Asia
Est TOL production loss from KR
Est TOL production loss from JPN
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016
Qty
in to
nnes
Total est consumption loss from NE Asia Total est production loss from NE AsiaSource ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45
Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance
Source ICIS
bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016
bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread
bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption
bull Improvements in TOL blend values
bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading
bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer
bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers
bull Other competitively priced blendstocks
bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL
bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China
TOL supply
TOL demand
Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors
wwwiciscom 46
Drivers of benzene trade flow
wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47
-60-40-200204060
500550600650700750800850900
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea
China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016
020000400006000080000
100000120000140000160000180000200000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Tonn
es
Others
MiddleEastThailand
Malaysia
Taiwan
Japan
SouthKorea
China imports
Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand
Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance
Strong appetite for imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48
Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
Pric
e ($
tonn
e)
Tonn
es
Shore tank inventories
E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity
2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite
Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains
Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49
-80-60-40-20020406080100
500550600650700750800850900950
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15
Tonn
es
OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea
Imports from Asia increase
Imports lower due to higher China prices
S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015
Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates
US imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50
Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600Ja
n-14
Feb-
14M
ar-1
4A
pr-1
4M
ay-1
4Ju
n-14
Jul-1
4A
ug-1
4Se
p-14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Dec
-14
Jan-
15Fe
b-15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
May
-15
Jun-
15Ju
l-15
Aug
-15
Sep-
15O
ct-1
5N
ov-1
5D
ec-1
5Ja
n-16
Feb-
16M
ar-1
6A
pr-1
6
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)Naphtha-Benzene
Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene
$346t $193t $230t
wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51
S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32
Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300
SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15
YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37
2015 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25
S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25
SK Global Chem Incheon 200
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16
OthersTaiwanChinaUS
S Korea exports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52
Outlook increased supply likely to head to China
Source ICIS industry
Company Location BZ Start up period
Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016
Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16
Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos
(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul
Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16
Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16
Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16
Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017
Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex
Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017
Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017
KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017
Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017
Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726
Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322
Product Company Location Capacity(kta)
BZ usage Start up period
SM
Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16
Donghao China 300 240 May-16
Phenol
PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16
Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16
Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17
PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017
Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017
CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17
CPL
Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16
China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16
Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16
MDI
Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017
Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017
Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017
Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972
Consumption within China in 2016 637 655
wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53
Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season
S Korea 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75
BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0
S Korea 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5
KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26
S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13
BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3
Japan 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36
Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12
BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0
Japan 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23
Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24
JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24
BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17
Source ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54
BZ demandBZ supply
bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China
bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ
bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene
bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units
bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher
bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure
bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed
bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand
Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55
Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom
Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom
Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom
Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom
wwwiciscom 56
Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets
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wwwiciscom 57
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wwwiciscom 35wwwiciscom 35
Asiarsquos TOL prices still tracks PX but relationship may weaken on narrower TDP spreads wider toluene-naphtha gap
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
160002
-Jan
-201
422
-Jan
-201
412
-Feb
-201
404
-Mar
-201
424
-Mar
-201
411
-Apr
-201
401
-May
-201
421
-May
-201
410
-Jun
-201
430
-Jun
-201
418
-Jul
-201
407
-Aug
-201
427
-Aug
-201
416
-Sep
-201
406
-Oct
-201
424
-Oct
-201
413
-Nov
-201
403
-Dec
-201
423
-Dec
-201
421
-Jan
-201
510
-Feb
-201
504
-Mar
-201
524
-Mar
-201
513
-Apr
-201
504
-May
-201
522
-May
-201
511
-Jun
-201
501
-Jul
-201
521
-Jul
-201
511
-Aug
-201
531
-Aug
-201
518
-Sep
-201
508
-Oct
-201
528
-Oct
-201
517
-Nov
-201
507
-Dec
-201
504
-Jan
-201
622
-Jan
-201
615
-Feb
-201
604
-Mar
-201
624
-Mar
-201
6
TDP spread (U
SDtonne)
USD
tonn
e
TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Toluene FOB K PX CFR CN
CF 094
CF 095
CF = correlation factor
CF 092
CF= 093
Healthy margins prevailed in 2014 supporting the closer relationship between PX and TOL prices
Margins turned largely negative in 2015 weakening the relationship slightly Strong blend value (BV) of TOL had larger impact on prices
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 36wwwiciscom 36
Wider toluene-naphtha spread since end-2015 increased toluene selling impetus instead of downstream usage allocation
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400Price spread (U
SDtonne)
USD
tonn
e
Toluene-Naphtha spread Naphtha CFR Japan Toluene FOB South Korea
Heavy speculation low Chinese + Indian inventory healthy PX spread led to widened spread in Q1 2016
Price increases supported by start-up of UAC higher usage of TOL for TDP units in addition to summer blending season
Breakeven level
Ave = 230Ave = 170Ave = 170
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 37wwwiciscom 37
TOL heavily placed in blending pool in 2015 capping op rates of downstream TDPs 2016 situation may be reversed
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
USD
tonn
e
Toluene blend value Toluene FOB Korea prices
95-TOL CF= 090
Strong TOL BV in H1 of 2014 results in the price support from gasoline blending strengthening relationship between the two
FOB K prices consistently higher than BV difficult to find demand from blending pool
95-TOL CF= 06895-TOL CF= 090
TOL BV surpasses TOL FOB K making it possible to be placed into blending pool for most of 2015
CF = correlation factorSource ICIS
wwwiciscom 38wwwiciscom 38
Chinese inventories have heavy influence on buying interest Q1 shortage supported sellersrsquo decision to offload more TOL
Ave = 103kt Ave = 903kt Ave = 89kt
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
USD
tonne0
00 to
nnes
east China south China CFR China price Import parity price of CNY cargoes
Strong demand from gasoline blending sector and cargo delays result in 3-year low inventories
Period of strong demand
Previously overbought slow offtake after LNY
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 39
S Korearsquos importexport position for TOL dependent on TDP spreads switch in production strategies in Q1 2016
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
50
100
150
200
25003
-Jan
-201
424
-Jan
-201
414
-Feb
-201
407
-Mar
-201
428
-Mar
-201
418
-Apr
-201
409
-May
-201
430
-May
-201
420
-Jun
-201
411
-Jul
-201
401
-Aug
-201
422
-Aug
-201
412
-Sep
-201
403
-Oct
-201
424
-Oct
-201
414
-Nov
-201
405
-Dec
-201
426
-Dec
-201
423
-Jan
-201
513
-Feb
-201
506
-Mar
-201
527
-Mar
-201
517
-Apr
-201
508
-May
-201
529
-May
-201
519
-Jun
-201
510
-Jul
-201
531
-Jul
-201
521
-Aug
-201
511
-Sep
-201
502
-Oct
-201
523
-Oct
-201
513
-Nov
-201
504
-Dec
-201
525
-Dec
-201
522
-Jan
-201
612
-Feb
-201
604
-Mar
-201
625
-Mar
-201
615
-Apr
-201
6
Qty in lsquo000 tonnes
USD
tonn
e
TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Exports from S Korea Imports to S Korea
Start up of UACrsquos TDP
Slight strategy switch as low Chinese inventories strong naphtha-TOL spread since Q1 leads to stronger TOL selling interest
Overall drop in TDP spreads from mid-2014 results in selling interest switch to net exporter
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 40
Heavier downstream unit turnarounds and production adjustments led to more S Korea-origin exports
H1 2015 H1 2016
0
20
40
60
80
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Qty
in 0
00 to
nnes
South Korea exports
China Taiwan Vietnam US Japan Singapore India Others
Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 13 00Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 00 00 18 00Hyundai Cosmo TDP Daesan 00 00 00 50 200 00S Oil No 2 TDP Onsan 00 00 00 200 00 00
00 00 00 250 231 00Producer LocationLG Chem Daesan 00 00 23 23 00 00YNCC No 1 Yeosu 00 00 00 00 50 50Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 00 00 00 08 63 00Lotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 23 00 00S Oil No 2 Onsan 00 00 124 267 00 00SKGC Incheon 67 00 00 00 00 00
67 00 147 321 113 50
Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)
Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)
Source ICIS
Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 00 87Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 27 00 00 00OCI TDI Kunsan 00 06 00 00 00 00GSCX STDP Yeosu 00 00 00 583 82 00Hanwha Total TDP Daesan 00 00 222 278 00 00SKGC TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 00 49 208LG H D A Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38
38 45 288 899 169 333Producer Location Hanwha Total Daesan 00 00 153 191 00 00GSCX Yeosu 00 00 00 174 49 00Lotte Chem Yeosu 00 00 00 47 16 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 00 78 333YNCC Yeosu 00 00 33 17 00 00
00 00 186 428 143 333
Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)
Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)
wwwiciscom 41wwwiciscom 41
NE Asia and SE Asia exports to China rise since H2 2015 on healthy netbacks strong demand
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
USD
tonne
Qty
in 0
00 to
nnes
Others
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
Import parity of domesticcargoesFOB South Korea prices
Increase in selling to China because of healthy netbacks weak TDP spread
Narrow gap results in fewer imports in line with FOB K price support from PX
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 42wwwiciscom 42
Exports from Asia to US market sporadic highly dependent on price gap gasoline blending season and Asia demand
0
10
20
30
40
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250Q
ty in 000 tonnesU
SDto
nne
Price gap (Asia prompt vs US forward) Exports from Asia to US
Open arbitrage opportunities result in increase of Asia exports
Consistent upward trend leads to selling interest
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 43wwwiciscom 43
India TOL imports mainly from SE Asia and Iran
46
23
17
37
4
2014
Singapore Thailand Iran S Korea Europe Others
2015
50
24
9
37
7
Source customs data
Total= 288kt Total= 288kt
wwwiciscom 44wwwiciscom 44
NE Asia TOL supply could outstrip demand in H2 2016 on heavier downstream turnarounds permanent shutdowns
H2 2015 H2 2016
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S Oil Onsan old TDP Onsan 00 42 42 00 00 00
00 42 42 00 00 00FCFC Aroma 2 TDP Mailiao 67 200 00 00 00 00
67 200 00 00 00 00JX Nippon Oil TDP Mizushima A 00 00 75 75 00 00
00 00 75 75 00 0067 242 117 75 00 00
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecLotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 73 25 00KPIC Ulsan 00 00 00 83 00 00S Oil No 1 Onsan 00 146 146 00 00 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 167 333 00OCI Yeosu 00 00 00 33 00 00
00 146 146 357 358 00Mitsui Chemicals Chiba 00 00 00 83 83 00JX Nippon Oil Mizushima A 00 00 117 233 00 00Tonen General Wakayama 00 00 00 69 92 00
00 00 117 385 175 00FCFC Aroma No 2 Mailiao 83 250 00 00 00 00CPC No 6 Kaohsiung 40 00 20 80 20 00CPC No3 Kaoshiung 00 00 00 00 83 55
123 250 20 80 103 55123 396 283 822 636 55
Est TOL consumption loss from KR
Est TOL consumption loss from TW
Est TOL production loss from KR
Total est consumption loss from NE Asia
Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia
CONSUMPTION (mt)
PRODUCTION (mt)
Est TOL consumption loss from JPN
Est TOL production loss from JPN
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUlsan Aromatics Center TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 1000 500 00SKGC TDP Incheon 00 00 00 83 42 00LG Chem H D A (shut since Jan) Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38
38 38 38 1122 580 38Taiyo Oil TDP cut rate only Kikuma 42 07 00 00 00 00MSNC TDI (shut since April) Omuta 65 65 65 65 65 65
107 72 65 65 65 65145 110 103 1187 645 103
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSKGC Incheon 00 00 00 133 67 00
00 00 00 133 67 00Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 00 00 108 108 00 00JFEC Chiba 00 00 14 42 00 00
00 00 122 150 00 00CPC No 7 Kaohsiung 00 00 00 27 108 00CPC No 3 Kaohsiung 110 00 00 00 00 00
110 00 00 27 108 00110 00 122 310 175 00
Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia
PRODUCTION (mt)
CONSUMPTION (mt)
Est TOL consumption loss from KR
Est TOL consumption loss from JPNTotal est consumption loss from NE Asia
Est TOL production loss from KR
Est TOL production loss from JPN
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016
Qty
in to
nnes
Total est consumption loss from NE Asia Total est production loss from NE AsiaSource ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45
Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance
Source ICIS
bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016
bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread
bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption
bull Improvements in TOL blend values
bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading
bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer
bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers
bull Other competitively priced blendstocks
bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL
bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China
TOL supply
TOL demand
Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors
wwwiciscom 46
Drivers of benzene trade flow
wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47
-60-40-200204060
500550600650700750800850900
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea
China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016
020000400006000080000
100000120000140000160000180000200000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Tonn
es
Others
MiddleEastThailand
Malaysia
Taiwan
Japan
SouthKorea
China imports
Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand
Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance
Strong appetite for imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48
Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
Pric
e ($
tonn
e)
Tonn
es
Shore tank inventories
E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity
2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite
Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains
Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49
-80-60-40-20020406080100
500550600650700750800850900950
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15
Tonn
es
OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea
Imports from Asia increase
Imports lower due to higher China prices
S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015
Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates
US imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50
Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600Ja
n-14
Feb-
14M
ar-1
4A
pr-1
4M
ay-1
4Ju
n-14
Jul-1
4A
ug-1
4Se
p-14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Dec
-14
Jan-
15Fe
b-15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
May
-15
Jun-
15Ju
l-15
Aug
-15
Sep-
15O
ct-1
5N
ov-1
5D
ec-1
5Ja
n-16
Feb-
16M
ar-1
6A
pr-1
6
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)Naphtha-Benzene
Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene
$346t $193t $230t
wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51
S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32
Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300
SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15
YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37
2015 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25
S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25
SK Global Chem Incheon 200
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16
OthersTaiwanChinaUS
S Korea exports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52
Outlook increased supply likely to head to China
Source ICIS industry
Company Location BZ Start up period
Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016
Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16
Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos
(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul
Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16
Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16
Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16
Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017
Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex
Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017
Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017
KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017
Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017
Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726
Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322
Product Company Location Capacity(kta)
BZ usage Start up period
SM
Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16
Donghao China 300 240 May-16
Phenol
PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16
Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16
Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17
PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017
Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017
CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17
CPL
Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16
China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16
Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16
MDI
Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017
Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017
Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017
Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972
Consumption within China in 2016 637 655
wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53
Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season
S Korea 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75
BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0
S Korea 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5
KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26
S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13
BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3
Japan 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36
Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12
BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0
Japan 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23
Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24
JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24
BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17
Source ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54
BZ demandBZ supply
bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China
bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ
bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene
bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units
bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher
bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure
bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed
bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand
Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55
Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom
Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom
Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom
Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom
wwwiciscom 56
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wwwiciscom 57
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wwwiciscom 36wwwiciscom 36
Wider toluene-naphtha spread since end-2015 increased toluene selling impetus instead of downstream usage allocation
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400Price spread (U
SDtonne)
USD
tonn
e
Toluene-Naphtha spread Naphtha CFR Japan Toluene FOB South Korea
Heavy speculation low Chinese + Indian inventory healthy PX spread led to widened spread in Q1 2016
Price increases supported by start-up of UAC higher usage of TOL for TDP units in addition to summer blending season
Breakeven level
Ave = 230Ave = 170Ave = 170
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 37wwwiciscom 37
TOL heavily placed in blending pool in 2015 capping op rates of downstream TDPs 2016 situation may be reversed
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
USD
tonn
e
Toluene blend value Toluene FOB Korea prices
95-TOL CF= 090
Strong TOL BV in H1 of 2014 results in the price support from gasoline blending strengthening relationship between the two
FOB K prices consistently higher than BV difficult to find demand from blending pool
95-TOL CF= 06895-TOL CF= 090
TOL BV surpasses TOL FOB K making it possible to be placed into blending pool for most of 2015
CF = correlation factorSource ICIS
wwwiciscom 38wwwiciscom 38
Chinese inventories have heavy influence on buying interest Q1 shortage supported sellersrsquo decision to offload more TOL
Ave = 103kt Ave = 903kt Ave = 89kt
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
USD
tonne0
00 to
nnes
east China south China CFR China price Import parity price of CNY cargoes
Strong demand from gasoline blending sector and cargo delays result in 3-year low inventories
Period of strong demand
Previously overbought slow offtake after LNY
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 39
S Korearsquos importexport position for TOL dependent on TDP spreads switch in production strategies in Q1 2016
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
50
100
150
200
25003
-Jan
-201
424
-Jan
-201
414
-Feb
-201
407
-Mar
-201
428
-Mar
-201
418
-Apr
-201
409
-May
-201
430
-May
-201
420
-Jun
-201
411
-Jul
-201
401
-Aug
-201
422
-Aug
-201
412
-Sep
-201
403
-Oct
-201
424
-Oct
-201
414
-Nov
-201
405
-Dec
-201
426
-Dec
-201
423
-Jan
-201
513
-Feb
-201
506
-Mar
-201
527
-Mar
-201
517
-Apr
-201
508
-May
-201
529
-May
-201
519
-Jun
-201
510
-Jul
-201
531
-Jul
-201
521
-Aug
-201
511
-Sep
-201
502
-Oct
-201
523
-Oct
-201
513
-Nov
-201
504
-Dec
-201
525
-Dec
-201
522
-Jan
-201
612
-Feb
-201
604
-Mar
-201
625
-Mar
-201
615
-Apr
-201
6
Qty in lsquo000 tonnes
USD
tonn
e
TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Exports from S Korea Imports to S Korea
Start up of UACrsquos TDP
Slight strategy switch as low Chinese inventories strong naphtha-TOL spread since Q1 leads to stronger TOL selling interest
Overall drop in TDP spreads from mid-2014 results in selling interest switch to net exporter
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 40
Heavier downstream unit turnarounds and production adjustments led to more S Korea-origin exports
H1 2015 H1 2016
0
20
40
60
80
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Qty
in 0
00 to
nnes
South Korea exports
China Taiwan Vietnam US Japan Singapore India Others
Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 13 00Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 00 00 18 00Hyundai Cosmo TDP Daesan 00 00 00 50 200 00S Oil No 2 TDP Onsan 00 00 00 200 00 00
00 00 00 250 231 00Producer LocationLG Chem Daesan 00 00 23 23 00 00YNCC No 1 Yeosu 00 00 00 00 50 50Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 00 00 00 08 63 00Lotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 23 00 00S Oil No 2 Onsan 00 00 124 267 00 00SKGC Incheon 67 00 00 00 00 00
67 00 147 321 113 50
Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)
Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)
Source ICIS
Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 00 87Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 27 00 00 00OCI TDI Kunsan 00 06 00 00 00 00GSCX STDP Yeosu 00 00 00 583 82 00Hanwha Total TDP Daesan 00 00 222 278 00 00SKGC TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 00 49 208LG H D A Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38
38 45 288 899 169 333Producer Location Hanwha Total Daesan 00 00 153 191 00 00GSCX Yeosu 00 00 00 174 49 00Lotte Chem Yeosu 00 00 00 47 16 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 00 78 333YNCC Yeosu 00 00 33 17 00 00
00 00 186 428 143 333
Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)
Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)
wwwiciscom 41wwwiciscom 41
NE Asia and SE Asia exports to China rise since H2 2015 on healthy netbacks strong demand
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
USD
tonne
Qty
in 0
00 to
nnes
Others
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
Import parity of domesticcargoesFOB South Korea prices
Increase in selling to China because of healthy netbacks weak TDP spread
Narrow gap results in fewer imports in line with FOB K price support from PX
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 42wwwiciscom 42
Exports from Asia to US market sporadic highly dependent on price gap gasoline blending season and Asia demand
0
10
20
30
40
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250Q
ty in 000 tonnesU
SDto
nne
Price gap (Asia prompt vs US forward) Exports from Asia to US
Open arbitrage opportunities result in increase of Asia exports
Consistent upward trend leads to selling interest
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 43wwwiciscom 43
India TOL imports mainly from SE Asia and Iran
46
23
17
37
4
2014
Singapore Thailand Iran S Korea Europe Others
2015
50
24
9
37
7
Source customs data
Total= 288kt Total= 288kt
wwwiciscom 44wwwiciscom 44
NE Asia TOL supply could outstrip demand in H2 2016 on heavier downstream turnarounds permanent shutdowns
H2 2015 H2 2016
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S Oil Onsan old TDP Onsan 00 42 42 00 00 00
00 42 42 00 00 00FCFC Aroma 2 TDP Mailiao 67 200 00 00 00 00
67 200 00 00 00 00JX Nippon Oil TDP Mizushima A 00 00 75 75 00 00
00 00 75 75 00 0067 242 117 75 00 00
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecLotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 73 25 00KPIC Ulsan 00 00 00 83 00 00S Oil No 1 Onsan 00 146 146 00 00 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 167 333 00OCI Yeosu 00 00 00 33 00 00
00 146 146 357 358 00Mitsui Chemicals Chiba 00 00 00 83 83 00JX Nippon Oil Mizushima A 00 00 117 233 00 00Tonen General Wakayama 00 00 00 69 92 00
00 00 117 385 175 00FCFC Aroma No 2 Mailiao 83 250 00 00 00 00CPC No 6 Kaohsiung 40 00 20 80 20 00CPC No3 Kaoshiung 00 00 00 00 83 55
123 250 20 80 103 55123 396 283 822 636 55
Est TOL consumption loss from KR
Est TOL consumption loss from TW
Est TOL production loss from KR
Total est consumption loss from NE Asia
Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia
CONSUMPTION (mt)
PRODUCTION (mt)
Est TOL consumption loss from JPN
Est TOL production loss from JPN
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUlsan Aromatics Center TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 1000 500 00SKGC TDP Incheon 00 00 00 83 42 00LG Chem H D A (shut since Jan) Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38
38 38 38 1122 580 38Taiyo Oil TDP cut rate only Kikuma 42 07 00 00 00 00MSNC TDI (shut since April) Omuta 65 65 65 65 65 65
107 72 65 65 65 65145 110 103 1187 645 103
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSKGC Incheon 00 00 00 133 67 00
00 00 00 133 67 00Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 00 00 108 108 00 00JFEC Chiba 00 00 14 42 00 00
00 00 122 150 00 00CPC No 7 Kaohsiung 00 00 00 27 108 00CPC No 3 Kaohsiung 110 00 00 00 00 00
110 00 00 27 108 00110 00 122 310 175 00
Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia
PRODUCTION (mt)
CONSUMPTION (mt)
Est TOL consumption loss from KR
Est TOL consumption loss from JPNTotal est consumption loss from NE Asia
Est TOL production loss from KR
Est TOL production loss from JPN
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016
Qty
in to
nnes
Total est consumption loss from NE Asia Total est production loss from NE AsiaSource ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45
Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance
Source ICIS
bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016
bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread
bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption
bull Improvements in TOL blend values
bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading
bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer
bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers
bull Other competitively priced blendstocks
bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL
bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China
TOL supply
TOL demand
Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors
wwwiciscom 46
Drivers of benzene trade flow
wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47
-60-40-200204060
500550600650700750800850900
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea
China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016
020000400006000080000
100000120000140000160000180000200000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Tonn
es
Others
MiddleEastThailand
Malaysia
Taiwan
Japan
SouthKorea
China imports
Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand
Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance
Strong appetite for imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48
Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
Pric
e ($
tonn
e)
Tonn
es
Shore tank inventories
E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity
2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite
Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains
Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49
-80-60-40-20020406080100
500550600650700750800850900950
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15
Tonn
es
OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea
Imports from Asia increase
Imports lower due to higher China prices
S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015
Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates
US imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50
Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600Ja
n-14
Feb-
14M
ar-1
4A
pr-1
4M
ay-1
4Ju
n-14
Jul-1
4A
ug-1
4Se
p-14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Dec
-14
Jan-
15Fe
b-15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
May
-15
Jun-
15Ju
l-15
Aug
-15
Sep-
15O
ct-1
5N
ov-1
5D
ec-1
5Ja
n-16
Feb-
16M
ar-1
6A
pr-1
6
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)Naphtha-Benzene
Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene
$346t $193t $230t
wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51
S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32
Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300
SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15
YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37
2015 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25
S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25
SK Global Chem Incheon 200
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16
OthersTaiwanChinaUS
S Korea exports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52
Outlook increased supply likely to head to China
Source ICIS industry
Company Location BZ Start up period
Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016
Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16
Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos
(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul
Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16
Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16
Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16
Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017
Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex
Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017
Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017
KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017
Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017
Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726
Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322
Product Company Location Capacity(kta)
BZ usage Start up period
SM
Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16
Donghao China 300 240 May-16
Phenol
PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16
Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16
Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17
PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017
Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017
CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17
CPL
Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16
China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16
Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16
MDI
Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017
Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017
Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017
Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972
Consumption within China in 2016 637 655
wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53
Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season
S Korea 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75
BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0
S Korea 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5
KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26
S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13
BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3
Japan 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36
Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12
BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0
Japan 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23
Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24
JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24
BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17
Source ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54
BZ demandBZ supply
bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China
bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ
bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene
bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units
bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher
bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure
bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed
bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand
Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55
Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom
Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom
Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom
Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom
wwwiciscom 56
Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets
Pricing information
- ButadieneC4s- Ethylene
Request your free sample report gtgt
We produce reliable price assessments and analyses covering Asian aromatics and olefins markets including price histories and a 12-month rolling price forecast enabling you to understand price drivers and settle your contract prices more confidently Our pricing coverage includes
- Mixed xylenes
- Propylene- Toluene
Real-time news serviceBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news including updates on plant capacities output and shutdowns
In-depth analysis of ChinaThe comprehensive studies on olefins and aromatics provide credible data and analysis to support your annual sales and strategy planning by giving you all of the following
- Comprehensive market overviews with detailed regional supply data and company profiles for 2013-2017
- In-depth downstream demand analysis and forecasts - Detailed import analysis between 2012-2014
Enquire about the annual studies
Request a free trial
Supply and demand data We give you an end-to-end perspective across the global petrochemical and refinery supply chain enabling you to grasp the local or regional scenario in a global context Data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2030
Request a free demo
- Benzene- Cumene- Paraxylene ndash Orthoxylene- Styrene
wwwiciscom 57
Bringing you faster more effective ways to improve productivity and decision making
Data ExpressAccess manage and analyse data easier than ever before with our Data Express solutions
bull Excel Plug-in - instantly update your worksheets in Excelbull API ndash stream the latest data directly to your systems
Set up email alerts for the most fluid markets to help you stay on top of market movements and enable you to react faster to price changes and other major developments
Market Alerts
Enquire about our market alerts
Build chart and track your formulas and keep them all in one place using real-time pricing data via the ICIS Dashboard
Formula Builder
Request a trial
wwwiciscom 37wwwiciscom 37
TOL heavily placed in blending pool in 2015 capping op rates of downstream TDPs 2016 situation may be reversed
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
USD
tonn
e
Toluene blend value Toluene FOB Korea prices
95-TOL CF= 090
Strong TOL BV in H1 of 2014 results in the price support from gasoline blending strengthening relationship between the two
FOB K prices consistently higher than BV difficult to find demand from blending pool
95-TOL CF= 06895-TOL CF= 090
TOL BV surpasses TOL FOB K making it possible to be placed into blending pool for most of 2015
CF = correlation factorSource ICIS
wwwiciscom 38wwwiciscom 38
Chinese inventories have heavy influence on buying interest Q1 shortage supported sellersrsquo decision to offload more TOL
Ave = 103kt Ave = 903kt Ave = 89kt
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
USD
tonne0
00 to
nnes
east China south China CFR China price Import parity price of CNY cargoes
Strong demand from gasoline blending sector and cargo delays result in 3-year low inventories
Period of strong demand
Previously overbought slow offtake after LNY
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 39
S Korearsquos importexport position for TOL dependent on TDP spreads switch in production strategies in Q1 2016
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
50
100
150
200
25003
-Jan
-201
424
-Jan
-201
414
-Feb
-201
407
-Mar
-201
428
-Mar
-201
418
-Apr
-201
409
-May
-201
430
-May
-201
420
-Jun
-201
411
-Jul
-201
401
-Aug
-201
422
-Aug
-201
412
-Sep
-201
403
-Oct
-201
424
-Oct
-201
414
-Nov
-201
405
-Dec
-201
426
-Dec
-201
423
-Jan
-201
513
-Feb
-201
506
-Mar
-201
527
-Mar
-201
517
-Apr
-201
508
-May
-201
529
-May
-201
519
-Jun
-201
510
-Jul
-201
531
-Jul
-201
521
-Aug
-201
511
-Sep
-201
502
-Oct
-201
523
-Oct
-201
513
-Nov
-201
504
-Dec
-201
525
-Dec
-201
522
-Jan
-201
612
-Feb
-201
604
-Mar
-201
625
-Mar
-201
615
-Apr
-201
6
Qty in lsquo000 tonnes
USD
tonn
e
TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Exports from S Korea Imports to S Korea
Start up of UACrsquos TDP
Slight strategy switch as low Chinese inventories strong naphtha-TOL spread since Q1 leads to stronger TOL selling interest
Overall drop in TDP spreads from mid-2014 results in selling interest switch to net exporter
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 40
Heavier downstream unit turnarounds and production adjustments led to more S Korea-origin exports
H1 2015 H1 2016
0
20
40
60
80
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Qty
in 0
00 to
nnes
South Korea exports
China Taiwan Vietnam US Japan Singapore India Others
Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 13 00Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 00 00 18 00Hyundai Cosmo TDP Daesan 00 00 00 50 200 00S Oil No 2 TDP Onsan 00 00 00 200 00 00
00 00 00 250 231 00Producer LocationLG Chem Daesan 00 00 23 23 00 00YNCC No 1 Yeosu 00 00 00 00 50 50Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 00 00 00 08 63 00Lotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 23 00 00S Oil No 2 Onsan 00 00 124 267 00 00SKGC Incheon 67 00 00 00 00 00
67 00 147 321 113 50
Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)
Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)
Source ICIS
Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 00 87Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 27 00 00 00OCI TDI Kunsan 00 06 00 00 00 00GSCX STDP Yeosu 00 00 00 583 82 00Hanwha Total TDP Daesan 00 00 222 278 00 00SKGC TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 00 49 208LG H D A Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38
38 45 288 899 169 333Producer Location Hanwha Total Daesan 00 00 153 191 00 00GSCX Yeosu 00 00 00 174 49 00Lotte Chem Yeosu 00 00 00 47 16 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 00 78 333YNCC Yeosu 00 00 33 17 00 00
00 00 186 428 143 333
Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)
Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)
wwwiciscom 41wwwiciscom 41
NE Asia and SE Asia exports to China rise since H2 2015 on healthy netbacks strong demand
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
USD
tonne
Qty
in 0
00 to
nnes
Others
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
Import parity of domesticcargoesFOB South Korea prices
Increase in selling to China because of healthy netbacks weak TDP spread
Narrow gap results in fewer imports in line with FOB K price support from PX
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 42wwwiciscom 42
Exports from Asia to US market sporadic highly dependent on price gap gasoline blending season and Asia demand
0
10
20
30
40
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250Q
ty in 000 tonnesU
SDto
nne
Price gap (Asia prompt vs US forward) Exports from Asia to US
Open arbitrage opportunities result in increase of Asia exports
Consistent upward trend leads to selling interest
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 43wwwiciscom 43
India TOL imports mainly from SE Asia and Iran
46
23
17
37
4
2014
Singapore Thailand Iran S Korea Europe Others
2015
50
24
9
37
7
Source customs data
Total= 288kt Total= 288kt
wwwiciscom 44wwwiciscom 44
NE Asia TOL supply could outstrip demand in H2 2016 on heavier downstream turnarounds permanent shutdowns
H2 2015 H2 2016
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S Oil Onsan old TDP Onsan 00 42 42 00 00 00
00 42 42 00 00 00FCFC Aroma 2 TDP Mailiao 67 200 00 00 00 00
67 200 00 00 00 00JX Nippon Oil TDP Mizushima A 00 00 75 75 00 00
00 00 75 75 00 0067 242 117 75 00 00
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecLotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 73 25 00KPIC Ulsan 00 00 00 83 00 00S Oil No 1 Onsan 00 146 146 00 00 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 167 333 00OCI Yeosu 00 00 00 33 00 00
00 146 146 357 358 00Mitsui Chemicals Chiba 00 00 00 83 83 00JX Nippon Oil Mizushima A 00 00 117 233 00 00Tonen General Wakayama 00 00 00 69 92 00
00 00 117 385 175 00FCFC Aroma No 2 Mailiao 83 250 00 00 00 00CPC No 6 Kaohsiung 40 00 20 80 20 00CPC No3 Kaoshiung 00 00 00 00 83 55
123 250 20 80 103 55123 396 283 822 636 55
Est TOL consumption loss from KR
Est TOL consumption loss from TW
Est TOL production loss from KR
Total est consumption loss from NE Asia
Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia
CONSUMPTION (mt)
PRODUCTION (mt)
Est TOL consumption loss from JPN
Est TOL production loss from JPN
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUlsan Aromatics Center TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 1000 500 00SKGC TDP Incheon 00 00 00 83 42 00LG Chem H D A (shut since Jan) Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38
38 38 38 1122 580 38Taiyo Oil TDP cut rate only Kikuma 42 07 00 00 00 00MSNC TDI (shut since April) Omuta 65 65 65 65 65 65
107 72 65 65 65 65145 110 103 1187 645 103
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSKGC Incheon 00 00 00 133 67 00
00 00 00 133 67 00Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 00 00 108 108 00 00JFEC Chiba 00 00 14 42 00 00
00 00 122 150 00 00CPC No 7 Kaohsiung 00 00 00 27 108 00CPC No 3 Kaohsiung 110 00 00 00 00 00
110 00 00 27 108 00110 00 122 310 175 00
Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia
PRODUCTION (mt)
CONSUMPTION (mt)
Est TOL consumption loss from KR
Est TOL consumption loss from JPNTotal est consumption loss from NE Asia
Est TOL production loss from KR
Est TOL production loss from JPN
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016
Qty
in to
nnes
Total est consumption loss from NE Asia Total est production loss from NE AsiaSource ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45
Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance
Source ICIS
bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016
bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread
bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption
bull Improvements in TOL blend values
bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading
bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer
bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers
bull Other competitively priced blendstocks
bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL
bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China
TOL supply
TOL demand
Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors
wwwiciscom 46
Drivers of benzene trade flow
wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47
-60-40-200204060
500550600650700750800850900
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea
China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016
020000400006000080000
100000120000140000160000180000200000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Tonn
es
Others
MiddleEastThailand
Malaysia
Taiwan
Japan
SouthKorea
China imports
Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand
Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance
Strong appetite for imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48
Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
Pric
e ($
tonn
e)
Tonn
es
Shore tank inventories
E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity
2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite
Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains
Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49
-80-60-40-20020406080100
500550600650700750800850900950
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15
Tonn
es
OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea
Imports from Asia increase
Imports lower due to higher China prices
S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015
Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates
US imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50
Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600Ja
n-14
Feb-
14M
ar-1
4A
pr-1
4M
ay-1
4Ju
n-14
Jul-1
4A
ug-1
4Se
p-14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Dec
-14
Jan-
15Fe
b-15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
May
-15
Jun-
15Ju
l-15
Aug
-15
Sep-
15O
ct-1
5N
ov-1
5D
ec-1
5Ja
n-16
Feb-
16M
ar-1
6A
pr-1
6
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)Naphtha-Benzene
Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene
$346t $193t $230t
wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51
S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32
Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300
SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15
YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37
2015 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25
S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25
SK Global Chem Incheon 200
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16
OthersTaiwanChinaUS
S Korea exports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52
Outlook increased supply likely to head to China
Source ICIS industry
Company Location BZ Start up period
Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016
Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16
Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos
(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul
Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16
Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16
Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16
Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017
Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex
Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017
Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017
KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017
Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017
Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726
Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322
Product Company Location Capacity(kta)
BZ usage Start up period
SM
Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16
Donghao China 300 240 May-16
Phenol
PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16
Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16
Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17
PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017
Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017
CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17
CPL
Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16
China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16
Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16
MDI
Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017
Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017
Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017
Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972
Consumption within China in 2016 637 655
wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53
Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season
S Korea 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75
BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0
S Korea 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5
KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26
S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13
BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3
Japan 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36
Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12
BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0
Japan 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23
Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24
JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24
BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17
Source ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54
BZ demandBZ supply
bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China
bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ
bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene
bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units
bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher
bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure
bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed
bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand
Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55
Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom
Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom
Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom
Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom
wwwiciscom 56
Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets
Pricing information
- ButadieneC4s- Ethylene
Request your free sample report gtgt
We produce reliable price assessments and analyses covering Asian aromatics and olefins markets including price histories and a 12-month rolling price forecast enabling you to understand price drivers and settle your contract prices more confidently Our pricing coverage includes
- Mixed xylenes
- Propylene- Toluene
Real-time news serviceBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news including updates on plant capacities output and shutdowns
In-depth analysis of ChinaThe comprehensive studies on olefins and aromatics provide credible data and analysis to support your annual sales and strategy planning by giving you all of the following
- Comprehensive market overviews with detailed regional supply data and company profiles for 2013-2017
- In-depth downstream demand analysis and forecasts - Detailed import analysis between 2012-2014
Enquire about the annual studies
Request a free trial
Supply and demand data We give you an end-to-end perspective across the global petrochemical and refinery supply chain enabling you to grasp the local or regional scenario in a global context Data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2030
Request a free demo
- Benzene- Cumene- Paraxylene ndash Orthoxylene- Styrene
wwwiciscom 57
Bringing you faster more effective ways to improve productivity and decision making
Data ExpressAccess manage and analyse data easier than ever before with our Data Express solutions
bull Excel Plug-in - instantly update your worksheets in Excelbull API ndash stream the latest data directly to your systems
Set up email alerts for the most fluid markets to help you stay on top of market movements and enable you to react faster to price changes and other major developments
Market Alerts
Enquire about our market alerts
Build chart and track your formulas and keep them all in one place using real-time pricing data via the ICIS Dashboard
Formula Builder
Request a trial
wwwiciscom 38wwwiciscom 38
Chinese inventories have heavy influence on buying interest Q1 shortage supported sellersrsquo decision to offload more TOL
Ave = 103kt Ave = 903kt Ave = 89kt
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
USD
tonne0
00 to
nnes
east China south China CFR China price Import parity price of CNY cargoes
Strong demand from gasoline blending sector and cargo delays result in 3-year low inventories
Period of strong demand
Previously overbought slow offtake after LNY
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 39
S Korearsquos importexport position for TOL dependent on TDP spreads switch in production strategies in Q1 2016
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
50
100
150
200
25003
-Jan
-201
424
-Jan
-201
414
-Feb
-201
407
-Mar
-201
428
-Mar
-201
418
-Apr
-201
409
-May
-201
430
-May
-201
420
-Jun
-201
411
-Jul
-201
401
-Aug
-201
422
-Aug
-201
412
-Sep
-201
403
-Oct
-201
424
-Oct
-201
414
-Nov
-201
405
-Dec
-201
426
-Dec
-201
423
-Jan
-201
513
-Feb
-201
506
-Mar
-201
527
-Mar
-201
517
-Apr
-201
508
-May
-201
529
-May
-201
519
-Jun
-201
510
-Jul
-201
531
-Jul
-201
521
-Aug
-201
511
-Sep
-201
502
-Oct
-201
523
-Oct
-201
513
-Nov
-201
504
-Dec
-201
525
-Dec
-201
522
-Jan
-201
612
-Feb
-201
604
-Mar
-201
625
-Mar
-201
615
-Apr
-201
6
Qty in lsquo000 tonnes
USD
tonn
e
TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Exports from S Korea Imports to S Korea
Start up of UACrsquos TDP
Slight strategy switch as low Chinese inventories strong naphtha-TOL spread since Q1 leads to stronger TOL selling interest
Overall drop in TDP spreads from mid-2014 results in selling interest switch to net exporter
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 40
Heavier downstream unit turnarounds and production adjustments led to more S Korea-origin exports
H1 2015 H1 2016
0
20
40
60
80
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Qty
in 0
00 to
nnes
South Korea exports
China Taiwan Vietnam US Japan Singapore India Others
Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 13 00Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 00 00 18 00Hyundai Cosmo TDP Daesan 00 00 00 50 200 00S Oil No 2 TDP Onsan 00 00 00 200 00 00
00 00 00 250 231 00Producer LocationLG Chem Daesan 00 00 23 23 00 00YNCC No 1 Yeosu 00 00 00 00 50 50Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 00 00 00 08 63 00Lotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 23 00 00S Oil No 2 Onsan 00 00 124 267 00 00SKGC Incheon 67 00 00 00 00 00
67 00 147 321 113 50
Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)
Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)
Source ICIS
Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 00 87Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 27 00 00 00OCI TDI Kunsan 00 06 00 00 00 00GSCX STDP Yeosu 00 00 00 583 82 00Hanwha Total TDP Daesan 00 00 222 278 00 00SKGC TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 00 49 208LG H D A Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38
38 45 288 899 169 333Producer Location Hanwha Total Daesan 00 00 153 191 00 00GSCX Yeosu 00 00 00 174 49 00Lotte Chem Yeosu 00 00 00 47 16 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 00 78 333YNCC Yeosu 00 00 33 17 00 00
00 00 186 428 143 333
Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)
Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)
wwwiciscom 41wwwiciscom 41
NE Asia and SE Asia exports to China rise since H2 2015 on healthy netbacks strong demand
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
USD
tonne
Qty
in 0
00 to
nnes
Others
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
Import parity of domesticcargoesFOB South Korea prices
Increase in selling to China because of healthy netbacks weak TDP spread
Narrow gap results in fewer imports in line with FOB K price support from PX
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 42wwwiciscom 42
Exports from Asia to US market sporadic highly dependent on price gap gasoline blending season and Asia demand
0
10
20
30
40
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250Q
ty in 000 tonnesU
SDto
nne
Price gap (Asia prompt vs US forward) Exports from Asia to US
Open arbitrage opportunities result in increase of Asia exports
Consistent upward trend leads to selling interest
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 43wwwiciscom 43
India TOL imports mainly from SE Asia and Iran
46
23
17
37
4
2014
Singapore Thailand Iran S Korea Europe Others
2015
50
24
9
37
7
Source customs data
Total= 288kt Total= 288kt
wwwiciscom 44wwwiciscom 44
NE Asia TOL supply could outstrip demand in H2 2016 on heavier downstream turnarounds permanent shutdowns
H2 2015 H2 2016
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S Oil Onsan old TDP Onsan 00 42 42 00 00 00
00 42 42 00 00 00FCFC Aroma 2 TDP Mailiao 67 200 00 00 00 00
67 200 00 00 00 00JX Nippon Oil TDP Mizushima A 00 00 75 75 00 00
00 00 75 75 00 0067 242 117 75 00 00
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecLotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 73 25 00KPIC Ulsan 00 00 00 83 00 00S Oil No 1 Onsan 00 146 146 00 00 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 167 333 00OCI Yeosu 00 00 00 33 00 00
00 146 146 357 358 00Mitsui Chemicals Chiba 00 00 00 83 83 00JX Nippon Oil Mizushima A 00 00 117 233 00 00Tonen General Wakayama 00 00 00 69 92 00
00 00 117 385 175 00FCFC Aroma No 2 Mailiao 83 250 00 00 00 00CPC No 6 Kaohsiung 40 00 20 80 20 00CPC No3 Kaoshiung 00 00 00 00 83 55
123 250 20 80 103 55123 396 283 822 636 55
Est TOL consumption loss from KR
Est TOL consumption loss from TW
Est TOL production loss from KR
Total est consumption loss from NE Asia
Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia
CONSUMPTION (mt)
PRODUCTION (mt)
Est TOL consumption loss from JPN
Est TOL production loss from JPN
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUlsan Aromatics Center TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 1000 500 00SKGC TDP Incheon 00 00 00 83 42 00LG Chem H D A (shut since Jan) Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38
38 38 38 1122 580 38Taiyo Oil TDP cut rate only Kikuma 42 07 00 00 00 00MSNC TDI (shut since April) Omuta 65 65 65 65 65 65
107 72 65 65 65 65145 110 103 1187 645 103
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSKGC Incheon 00 00 00 133 67 00
00 00 00 133 67 00Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 00 00 108 108 00 00JFEC Chiba 00 00 14 42 00 00
00 00 122 150 00 00CPC No 7 Kaohsiung 00 00 00 27 108 00CPC No 3 Kaohsiung 110 00 00 00 00 00
110 00 00 27 108 00110 00 122 310 175 00
Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia
PRODUCTION (mt)
CONSUMPTION (mt)
Est TOL consumption loss from KR
Est TOL consumption loss from JPNTotal est consumption loss from NE Asia
Est TOL production loss from KR
Est TOL production loss from JPN
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016
Qty
in to
nnes
Total est consumption loss from NE Asia Total est production loss from NE AsiaSource ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45
Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance
Source ICIS
bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016
bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread
bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption
bull Improvements in TOL blend values
bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading
bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer
bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers
bull Other competitively priced blendstocks
bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL
bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China
TOL supply
TOL demand
Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors
wwwiciscom 46
Drivers of benzene trade flow
wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47
-60-40-200204060
500550600650700750800850900
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea
China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016
020000400006000080000
100000120000140000160000180000200000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Tonn
es
Others
MiddleEastThailand
Malaysia
Taiwan
Japan
SouthKorea
China imports
Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand
Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance
Strong appetite for imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48
Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
Pric
e ($
tonn
e)
Tonn
es
Shore tank inventories
E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity
2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite
Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains
Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49
-80-60-40-20020406080100
500550600650700750800850900950
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15
Tonn
es
OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea
Imports from Asia increase
Imports lower due to higher China prices
S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015
Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates
US imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50
Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600Ja
n-14
Feb-
14M
ar-1
4A
pr-1
4M
ay-1
4Ju
n-14
Jul-1
4A
ug-1
4Se
p-14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Dec
-14
Jan-
15Fe
b-15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
May
-15
Jun-
15Ju
l-15
Aug
-15
Sep-
15O
ct-1
5N
ov-1
5D
ec-1
5Ja
n-16
Feb-
16M
ar-1
6A
pr-1
6
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)Naphtha-Benzene
Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene
$346t $193t $230t
wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51
S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32
Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300
SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15
YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37
2015 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25
S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25
SK Global Chem Incheon 200
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16
OthersTaiwanChinaUS
S Korea exports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52
Outlook increased supply likely to head to China
Source ICIS industry
Company Location BZ Start up period
Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016
Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16
Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos
(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul
Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16
Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16
Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16
Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017
Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex
Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017
Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017
KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017
Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017
Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726
Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322
Product Company Location Capacity(kta)
BZ usage Start up period
SM
Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16
Donghao China 300 240 May-16
Phenol
PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16
Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16
Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17
PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017
Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017
CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17
CPL
Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16
China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16
Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16
MDI
Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017
Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017
Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017
Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972
Consumption within China in 2016 637 655
wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53
Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season
S Korea 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75
BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0
S Korea 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5
KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26
S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13
BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3
Japan 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36
Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12
BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0
Japan 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23
Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24
JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24
BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17
Source ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54
BZ demandBZ supply
bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China
bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ
bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene
bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units
bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher
bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure
bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed
bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand
Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55
Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom
Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom
Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom
Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom
wwwiciscom 56
Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets
Pricing information
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wwwiciscom 57
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wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 39
S Korearsquos importexport position for TOL dependent on TDP spreads switch in production strategies in Q1 2016
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
50
100
150
200
25003
-Jan
-201
424
-Jan
-201
414
-Feb
-201
407
-Mar
-201
428
-Mar
-201
418
-Apr
-201
409
-May
-201
430
-May
-201
420
-Jun
-201
411
-Jul
-201
401
-Aug
-201
422
-Aug
-201
412
-Sep
-201
403
-Oct
-201
424
-Oct
-201
414
-Nov
-201
405
-Dec
-201
426
-Dec
-201
423
-Jan
-201
513
-Feb
-201
506
-Mar
-201
527
-Mar
-201
517
-Apr
-201
508
-May
-201
529
-May
-201
519
-Jun
-201
510
-Jul
-201
531
-Jul
-201
521
-Aug
-201
511
-Sep
-201
502
-Oct
-201
523
-Oct
-201
513
-Nov
-201
504
-Dec
-201
525
-Dec
-201
522
-Jan
-201
612
-Feb
-201
604
-Mar
-201
625
-Mar
-201
615
-Apr
-201
6
Qty in lsquo000 tonnes
USD
tonn
e
TDP spread (avg of PX-IX and BZ-TOL) Exports from S Korea Imports to S Korea
Start up of UACrsquos TDP
Slight strategy switch as low Chinese inventories strong naphtha-TOL spread since Q1 leads to stronger TOL selling interest
Overall drop in TDP spreads from mid-2014 results in selling interest switch to net exporter
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 40
Heavier downstream unit turnarounds and production adjustments led to more S Korea-origin exports
H1 2015 H1 2016
0
20
40
60
80
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Qty
in 0
00 to
nnes
South Korea exports
China Taiwan Vietnam US Japan Singapore India Others
Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 13 00Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 00 00 18 00Hyundai Cosmo TDP Daesan 00 00 00 50 200 00S Oil No 2 TDP Onsan 00 00 00 200 00 00
00 00 00 250 231 00Producer LocationLG Chem Daesan 00 00 23 23 00 00YNCC No 1 Yeosu 00 00 00 00 50 50Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 00 00 00 08 63 00Lotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 23 00 00S Oil No 2 Onsan 00 00 124 267 00 00SKGC Incheon 67 00 00 00 00 00
67 00 147 321 113 50
Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)
Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)
Source ICIS
Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 00 87Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 27 00 00 00OCI TDI Kunsan 00 06 00 00 00 00GSCX STDP Yeosu 00 00 00 583 82 00Hanwha Total TDP Daesan 00 00 222 278 00 00SKGC TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 00 49 208LG H D A Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38
38 45 288 899 169 333Producer Location Hanwha Total Daesan 00 00 153 191 00 00GSCX Yeosu 00 00 00 174 49 00Lotte Chem Yeosu 00 00 00 47 16 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 00 78 333YNCC Yeosu 00 00 33 17 00 00
00 00 186 428 143 333
Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)
Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)
wwwiciscom 41wwwiciscom 41
NE Asia and SE Asia exports to China rise since H2 2015 on healthy netbacks strong demand
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
USD
tonne
Qty
in 0
00 to
nnes
Others
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
Import parity of domesticcargoesFOB South Korea prices
Increase in selling to China because of healthy netbacks weak TDP spread
Narrow gap results in fewer imports in line with FOB K price support from PX
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 42wwwiciscom 42
Exports from Asia to US market sporadic highly dependent on price gap gasoline blending season and Asia demand
0
10
20
30
40
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250Q
ty in 000 tonnesU
SDto
nne
Price gap (Asia prompt vs US forward) Exports from Asia to US
Open arbitrage opportunities result in increase of Asia exports
Consistent upward trend leads to selling interest
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 43wwwiciscom 43
India TOL imports mainly from SE Asia and Iran
46
23
17
37
4
2014
Singapore Thailand Iran S Korea Europe Others
2015
50
24
9
37
7
Source customs data
Total= 288kt Total= 288kt
wwwiciscom 44wwwiciscom 44
NE Asia TOL supply could outstrip demand in H2 2016 on heavier downstream turnarounds permanent shutdowns
H2 2015 H2 2016
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S Oil Onsan old TDP Onsan 00 42 42 00 00 00
00 42 42 00 00 00FCFC Aroma 2 TDP Mailiao 67 200 00 00 00 00
67 200 00 00 00 00JX Nippon Oil TDP Mizushima A 00 00 75 75 00 00
00 00 75 75 00 0067 242 117 75 00 00
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecLotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 73 25 00KPIC Ulsan 00 00 00 83 00 00S Oil No 1 Onsan 00 146 146 00 00 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 167 333 00OCI Yeosu 00 00 00 33 00 00
00 146 146 357 358 00Mitsui Chemicals Chiba 00 00 00 83 83 00JX Nippon Oil Mizushima A 00 00 117 233 00 00Tonen General Wakayama 00 00 00 69 92 00
00 00 117 385 175 00FCFC Aroma No 2 Mailiao 83 250 00 00 00 00CPC No 6 Kaohsiung 40 00 20 80 20 00CPC No3 Kaoshiung 00 00 00 00 83 55
123 250 20 80 103 55123 396 283 822 636 55
Est TOL consumption loss from KR
Est TOL consumption loss from TW
Est TOL production loss from KR
Total est consumption loss from NE Asia
Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia
CONSUMPTION (mt)
PRODUCTION (mt)
Est TOL consumption loss from JPN
Est TOL production loss from JPN
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUlsan Aromatics Center TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 1000 500 00SKGC TDP Incheon 00 00 00 83 42 00LG Chem H D A (shut since Jan) Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38
38 38 38 1122 580 38Taiyo Oil TDP cut rate only Kikuma 42 07 00 00 00 00MSNC TDI (shut since April) Omuta 65 65 65 65 65 65
107 72 65 65 65 65145 110 103 1187 645 103
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSKGC Incheon 00 00 00 133 67 00
00 00 00 133 67 00Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 00 00 108 108 00 00JFEC Chiba 00 00 14 42 00 00
00 00 122 150 00 00CPC No 7 Kaohsiung 00 00 00 27 108 00CPC No 3 Kaohsiung 110 00 00 00 00 00
110 00 00 27 108 00110 00 122 310 175 00
Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia
PRODUCTION (mt)
CONSUMPTION (mt)
Est TOL consumption loss from KR
Est TOL consumption loss from JPNTotal est consumption loss from NE Asia
Est TOL production loss from KR
Est TOL production loss from JPN
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016
Qty
in to
nnes
Total est consumption loss from NE Asia Total est production loss from NE AsiaSource ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45
Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance
Source ICIS
bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016
bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread
bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption
bull Improvements in TOL blend values
bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading
bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer
bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers
bull Other competitively priced blendstocks
bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL
bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China
TOL supply
TOL demand
Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors
wwwiciscom 46
Drivers of benzene trade flow
wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47
-60-40-200204060
500550600650700750800850900
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea
China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016
020000400006000080000
100000120000140000160000180000200000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Tonn
es
Others
MiddleEastThailand
Malaysia
Taiwan
Japan
SouthKorea
China imports
Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand
Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance
Strong appetite for imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48
Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
Pric
e ($
tonn
e)
Tonn
es
Shore tank inventories
E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity
2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite
Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains
Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49
-80-60-40-20020406080100
500550600650700750800850900950
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15
Tonn
es
OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea
Imports from Asia increase
Imports lower due to higher China prices
S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015
Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates
US imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50
Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600Ja
n-14
Feb-
14M
ar-1
4A
pr-1
4M
ay-1
4Ju
n-14
Jul-1
4A
ug-1
4Se
p-14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Dec
-14
Jan-
15Fe
b-15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
May
-15
Jun-
15Ju
l-15
Aug
-15
Sep-
15O
ct-1
5N
ov-1
5D
ec-1
5Ja
n-16
Feb-
16M
ar-1
6A
pr-1
6
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)Naphtha-Benzene
Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene
$346t $193t $230t
wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51
S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32
Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300
SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15
YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37
2015 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25
S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25
SK Global Chem Incheon 200
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16
OthersTaiwanChinaUS
S Korea exports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52
Outlook increased supply likely to head to China
Source ICIS industry
Company Location BZ Start up period
Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016
Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16
Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos
(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul
Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16
Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16
Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16
Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017
Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex
Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017
Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017
KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017
Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017
Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726
Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322
Product Company Location Capacity(kta)
BZ usage Start up period
SM
Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16
Donghao China 300 240 May-16
Phenol
PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16
Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16
Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17
PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017
Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017
CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17
CPL
Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16
China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16
Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16
MDI
Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017
Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017
Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017
Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972
Consumption within China in 2016 637 655
wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53
Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season
S Korea 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75
BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0
S Korea 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5
KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26
S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13
BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3
Japan 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36
Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12
BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0
Japan 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23
Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24
JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24
BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17
Source ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54
BZ demandBZ supply
bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China
bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ
bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene
bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units
bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher
bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure
bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed
bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand
Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55
Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom
Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom
Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom
Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom
wwwiciscom 56
Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets
Pricing information
- ButadieneC4s- Ethylene
Request your free sample report gtgt
We produce reliable price assessments and analyses covering Asian aromatics and olefins markets including price histories and a 12-month rolling price forecast enabling you to understand price drivers and settle your contract prices more confidently Our pricing coverage includes
- Mixed xylenes
- Propylene- Toluene
Real-time news serviceBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news including updates on plant capacities output and shutdowns
In-depth analysis of ChinaThe comprehensive studies on olefins and aromatics provide credible data and analysis to support your annual sales and strategy planning by giving you all of the following
- Comprehensive market overviews with detailed regional supply data and company profiles for 2013-2017
- In-depth downstream demand analysis and forecasts - Detailed import analysis between 2012-2014
Enquire about the annual studies
Request a free trial
Supply and demand data We give you an end-to-end perspective across the global petrochemical and refinery supply chain enabling you to grasp the local or regional scenario in a global context Data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2030
Request a free demo
- Benzene- Cumene- Paraxylene ndash Orthoxylene- Styrene
wwwiciscom 57
Bringing you faster more effective ways to improve productivity and decision making
Data ExpressAccess manage and analyse data easier than ever before with our Data Express solutions
bull Excel Plug-in - instantly update your worksheets in Excelbull API ndash stream the latest data directly to your systems
Set up email alerts for the most fluid markets to help you stay on top of market movements and enable you to react faster to price changes and other major developments
Market Alerts
Enquire about our market alerts
Build chart and track your formulas and keep them all in one place using real-time pricing data via the ICIS Dashboard
Formula Builder
Request a trial
wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 40
Heavier downstream unit turnarounds and production adjustments led to more S Korea-origin exports
H1 2015 H1 2016
0
20
40
60
80
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Qty
in 0
00 to
nnes
South Korea exports
China Taiwan Vietnam US Japan Singapore India Others
Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 13 00Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 00 00 18 00Hyundai Cosmo TDP Daesan 00 00 00 50 200 00S Oil No 2 TDP Onsan 00 00 00 200 00 00
00 00 00 250 231 00Producer LocationLG Chem Daesan 00 00 23 23 00 00YNCC No 1 Yeosu 00 00 00 00 50 50Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 00 00 00 08 63 00Lotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 23 00 00S Oil No 2 Onsan 00 00 124 267 00 00SKGC Incheon 67 00 00 00 00 00
67 00 147 321 113 50
Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)
Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)
Source ICIS
Producer Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunBASF TDI Yeosu 00 00 00 00 00 87Hanwha Fine Chemical TDIYeosu 00 00 27 00 00 00OCI TDI Kunsan 00 06 00 00 00 00GSCX STDP Yeosu 00 00 00 583 82 00Hanwha Total TDP Daesan 00 00 222 278 00 00SKGC TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 00 49 208LG H D A Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38
38 45 288 899 169 333Producer Location Hanwha Total Daesan 00 00 153 191 00 00GSCX Yeosu 00 00 00 174 49 00Lotte Chem Yeosu 00 00 00 47 16 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 00 78 333YNCC Yeosu 00 00 33 17 00 00
00 00 186 428 143 333
Est TOL consumption loss from KR (kt)
Est TOL production loss from KR (kt)
wwwiciscom 41wwwiciscom 41
NE Asia and SE Asia exports to China rise since H2 2015 on healthy netbacks strong demand
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
USD
tonne
Qty
in 0
00 to
nnes
Others
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
Import parity of domesticcargoesFOB South Korea prices
Increase in selling to China because of healthy netbacks weak TDP spread
Narrow gap results in fewer imports in line with FOB K price support from PX
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 42wwwiciscom 42
Exports from Asia to US market sporadic highly dependent on price gap gasoline blending season and Asia demand
0
10
20
30
40
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250Q
ty in 000 tonnesU
SDto
nne
Price gap (Asia prompt vs US forward) Exports from Asia to US
Open arbitrage opportunities result in increase of Asia exports
Consistent upward trend leads to selling interest
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 43wwwiciscom 43
India TOL imports mainly from SE Asia and Iran
46
23
17
37
4
2014
Singapore Thailand Iran S Korea Europe Others
2015
50
24
9
37
7
Source customs data
Total= 288kt Total= 288kt
wwwiciscom 44wwwiciscom 44
NE Asia TOL supply could outstrip demand in H2 2016 on heavier downstream turnarounds permanent shutdowns
H2 2015 H2 2016
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S Oil Onsan old TDP Onsan 00 42 42 00 00 00
00 42 42 00 00 00FCFC Aroma 2 TDP Mailiao 67 200 00 00 00 00
67 200 00 00 00 00JX Nippon Oil TDP Mizushima A 00 00 75 75 00 00
00 00 75 75 00 0067 242 117 75 00 00
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecLotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 73 25 00KPIC Ulsan 00 00 00 83 00 00S Oil No 1 Onsan 00 146 146 00 00 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 167 333 00OCI Yeosu 00 00 00 33 00 00
00 146 146 357 358 00Mitsui Chemicals Chiba 00 00 00 83 83 00JX Nippon Oil Mizushima A 00 00 117 233 00 00Tonen General Wakayama 00 00 00 69 92 00
00 00 117 385 175 00FCFC Aroma No 2 Mailiao 83 250 00 00 00 00CPC No 6 Kaohsiung 40 00 20 80 20 00CPC No3 Kaoshiung 00 00 00 00 83 55
123 250 20 80 103 55123 396 283 822 636 55
Est TOL consumption loss from KR
Est TOL consumption loss from TW
Est TOL production loss from KR
Total est consumption loss from NE Asia
Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia
CONSUMPTION (mt)
PRODUCTION (mt)
Est TOL consumption loss from JPN
Est TOL production loss from JPN
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUlsan Aromatics Center TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 1000 500 00SKGC TDP Incheon 00 00 00 83 42 00LG Chem H D A (shut since Jan) Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38
38 38 38 1122 580 38Taiyo Oil TDP cut rate only Kikuma 42 07 00 00 00 00MSNC TDI (shut since April) Omuta 65 65 65 65 65 65
107 72 65 65 65 65145 110 103 1187 645 103
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSKGC Incheon 00 00 00 133 67 00
00 00 00 133 67 00Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 00 00 108 108 00 00JFEC Chiba 00 00 14 42 00 00
00 00 122 150 00 00CPC No 7 Kaohsiung 00 00 00 27 108 00CPC No 3 Kaohsiung 110 00 00 00 00 00
110 00 00 27 108 00110 00 122 310 175 00
Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia
PRODUCTION (mt)
CONSUMPTION (mt)
Est TOL consumption loss from KR
Est TOL consumption loss from JPNTotal est consumption loss from NE Asia
Est TOL production loss from KR
Est TOL production loss from JPN
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016
Qty
in to
nnes
Total est consumption loss from NE Asia Total est production loss from NE AsiaSource ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45
Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance
Source ICIS
bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016
bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread
bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption
bull Improvements in TOL blend values
bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading
bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer
bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers
bull Other competitively priced blendstocks
bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL
bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China
TOL supply
TOL demand
Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors
wwwiciscom 46
Drivers of benzene trade flow
wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47
-60-40-200204060
500550600650700750800850900
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea
China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016
020000400006000080000
100000120000140000160000180000200000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Tonn
es
Others
MiddleEastThailand
Malaysia
Taiwan
Japan
SouthKorea
China imports
Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand
Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance
Strong appetite for imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48
Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
Pric
e ($
tonn
e)
Tonn
es
Shore tank inventories
E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity
2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite
Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains
Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49
-80-60-40-20020406080100
500550600650700750800850900950
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15
Tonn
es
OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea
Imports from Asia increase
Imports lower due to higher China prices
S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015
Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates
US imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50
Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600Ja
n-14
Feb-
14M
ar-1
4A
pr-1
4M
ay-1
4Ju
n-14
Jul-1
4A
ug-1
4Se
p-14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Dec
-14
Jan-
15Fe
b-15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
May
-15
Jun-
15Ju
l-15
Aug
-15
Sep-
15O
ct-1
5N
ov-1
5D
ec-1
5Ja
n-16
Feb-
16M
ar-1
6A
pr-1
6
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)Naphtha-Benzene
Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene
$346t $193t $230t
wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51
S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32
Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300
SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15
YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37
2015 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25
S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25
SK Global Chem Incheon 200
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16
OthersTaiwanChinaUS
S Korea exports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52
Outlook increased supply likely to head to China
Source ICIS industry
Company Location BZ Start up period
Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016
Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16
Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos
(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul
Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16
Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16
Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16
Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017
Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex
Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017
Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017
KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017
Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017
Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726
Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322
Product Company Location Capacity(kta)
BZ usage Start up period
SM
Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16
Donghao China 300 240 May-16
Phenol
PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16
Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16
Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17
PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017
Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017
CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17
CPL
Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16
China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16
Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16
MDI
Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017
Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017
Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017
Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972
Consumption within China in 2016 637 655
wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53
Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season
S Korea 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75
BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0
S Korea 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5
KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26
S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13
BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3
Japan 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36
Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12
BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0
Japan 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23
Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24
JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24
BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17
Source ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54
BZ demandBZ supply
bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China
bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ
bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene
bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units
bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher
bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure
bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed
bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand
Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55
Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom
Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom
Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom
Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom
wwwiciscom 56
Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets
Pricing information
- ButadieneC4s- Ethylene
Request your free sample report gtgt
We produce reliable price assessments and analyses covering Asian aromatics and olefins markets including price histories and a 12-month rolling price forecast enabling you to understand price drivers and settle your contract prices more confidently Our pricing coverage includes
- Mixed xylenes
- Propylene- Toluene
Real-time news serviceBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news including updates on plant capacities output and shutdowns
In-depth analysis of ChinaThe comprehensive studies on olefins and aromatics provide credible data and analysis to support your annual sales and strategy planning by giving you all of the following
- Comprehensive market overviews with detailed regional supply data and company profiles for 2013-2017
- In-depth downstream demand analysis and forecasts - Detailed import analysis between 2012-2014
Enquire about the annual studies
Request a free trial
Supply and demand data We give you an end-to-end perspective across the global petrochemical and refinery supply chain enabling you to grasp the local or regional scenario in a global context Data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2030
Request a free demo
- Benzene- Cumene- Paraxylene ndash Orthoxylene- Styrene
wwwiciscom 57
Bringing you faster more effective ways to improve productivity and decision making
Data ExpressAccess manage and analyse data easier than ever before with our Data Express solutions
bull Excel Plug-in - instantly update your worksheets in Excelbull API ndash stream the latest data directly to your systems
Set up email alerts for the most fluid markets to help you stay on top of market movements and enable you to react faster to price changes and other major developments
Market Alerts
Enquire about our market alerts
Build chart and track your formulas and keep them all in one place using real-time pricing data via the ICIS Dashboard
Formula Builder
Request a trial
wwwiciscom 41wwwiciscom 41
NE Asia and SE Asia exports to China rise since H2 2015 on healthy netbacks strong demand
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
USD
tonne
Qty
in 0
00 to
nnes
Others
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
Import parity of domesticcargoesFOB South Korea prices
Increase in selling to China because of healthy netbacks weak TDP spread
Narrow gap results in fewer imports in line with FOB K price support from PX
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 42wwwiciscom 42
Exports from Asia to US market sporadic highly dependent on price gap gasoline blending season and Asia demand
0
10
20
30
40
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250Q
ty in 000 tonnesU
SDto
nne
Price gap (Asia prompt vs US forward) Exports from Asia to US
Open arbitrage opportunities result in increase of Asia exports
Consistent upward trend leads to selling interest
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 43wwwiciscom 43
India TOL imports mainly from SE Asia and Iran
46
23
17
37
4
2014
Singapore Thailand Iran S Korea Europe Others
2015
50
24
9
37
7
Source customs data
Total= 288kt Total= 288kt
wwwiciscom 44wwwiciscom 44
NE Asia TOL supply could outstrip demand in H2 2016 on heavier downstream turnarounds permanent shutdowns
H2 2015 H2 2016
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S Oil Onsan old TDP Onsan 00 42 42 00 00 00
00 42 42 00 00 00FCFC Aroma 2 TDP Mailiao 67 200 00 00 00 00
67 200 00 00 00 00JX Nippon Oil TDP Mizushima A 00 00 75 75 00 00
00 00 75 75 00 0067 242 117 75 00 00
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecLotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 73 25 00KPIC Ulsan 00 00 00 83 00 00S Oil No 1 Onsan 00 146 146 00 00 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 167 333 00OCI Yeosu 00 00 00 33 00 00
00 146 146 357 358 00Mitsui Chemicals Chiba 00 00 00 83 83 00JX Nippon Oil Mizushima A 00 00 117 233 00 00Tonen General Wakayama 00 00 00 69 92 00
00 00 117 385 175 00FCFC Aroma No 2 Mailiao 83 250 00 00 00 00CPC No 6 Kaohsiung 40 00 20 80 20 00CPC No3 Kaoshiung 00 00 00 00 83 55
123 250 20 80 103 55123 396 283 822 636 55
Est TOL consumption loss from KR
Est TOL consumption loss from TW
Est TOL production loss from KR
Total est consumption loss from NE Asia
Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia
CONSUMPTION (mt)
PRODUCTION (mt)
Est TOL consumption loss from JPN
Est TOL production loss from JPN
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUlsan Aromatics Center TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 1000 500 00SKGC TDP Incheon 00 00 00 83 42 00LG Chem H D A (shut since Jan) Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38
38 38 38 1122 580 38Taiyo Oil TDP cut rate only Kikuma 42 07 00 00 00 00MSNC TDI (shut since April) Omuta 65 65 65 65 65 65
107 72 65 65 65 65145 110 103 1187 645 103
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSKGC Incheon 00 00 00 133 67 00
00 00 00 133 67 00Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 00 00 108 108 00 00JFEC Chiba 00 00 14 42 00 00
00 00 122 150 00 00CPC No 7 Kaohsiung 00 00 00 27 108 00CPC No 3 Kaohsiung 110 00 00 00 00 00
110 00 00 27 108 00110 00 122 310 175 00
Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia
PRODUCTION (mt)
CONSUMPTION (mt)
Est TOL consumption loss from KR
Est TOL consumption loss from JPNTotal est consumption loss from NE Asia
Est TOL production loss from KR
Est TOL production loss from JPN
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016
Qty
in to
nnes
Total est consumption loss from NE Asia Total est production loss from NE AsiaSource ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45
Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance
Source ICIS
bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016
bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread
bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption
bull Improvements in TOL blend values
bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading
bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer
bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers
bull Other competitively priced blendstocks
bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL
bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China
TOL supply
TOL demand
Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors
wwwiciscom 46
Drivers of benzene trade flow
wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47
-60-40-200204060
500550600650700750800850900
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea
China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016
020000400006000080000
100000120000140000160000180000200000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Tonn
es
Others
MiddleEastThailand
Malaysia
Taiwan
Japan
SouthKorea
China imports
Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand
Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance
Strong appetite for imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48
Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
Pric
e ($
tonn
e)
Tonn
es
Shore tank inventories
E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity
2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite
Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains
Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49
-80-60-40-20020406080100
500550600650700750800850900950
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15
Tonn
es
OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea
Imports from Asia increase
Imports lower due to higher China prices
S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015
Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates
US imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50
Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600Ja
n-14
Feb-
14M
ar-1
4A
pr-1
4M
ay-1
4Ju
n-14
Jul-1
4A
ug-1
4Se
p-14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Dec
-14
Jan-
15Fe
b-15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
May
-15
Jun-
15Ju
l-15
Aug
-15
Sep-
15O
ct-1
5N
ov-1
5D
ec-1
5Ja
n-16
Feb-
16M
ar-1
6A
pr-1
6
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)Naphtha-Benzene
Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene
$346t $193t $230t
wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51
S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32
Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300
SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15
YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37
2015 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25
S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25
SK Global Chem Incheon 200
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16
OthersTaiwanChinaUS
S Korea exports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52
Outlook increased supply likely to head to China
Source ICIS industry
Company Location BZ Start up period
Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016
Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16
Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos
(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul
Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16
Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16
Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16
Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017
Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex
Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017
Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017
KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017
Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017
Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726
Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322
Product Company Location Capacity(kta)
BZ usage Start up period
SM
Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16
Donghao China 300 240 May-16
Phenol
PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16
Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16
Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17
PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017
Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017
CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17
CPL
Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16
China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16
Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16
MDI
Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017
Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017
Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017
Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972
Consumption within China in 2016 637 655
wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53
Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season
S Korea 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75
BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0
S Korea 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5
KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26
S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13
BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3
Japan 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36
Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12
BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0
Japan 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23
Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24
JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24
BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17
Source ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54
BZ demandBZ supply
bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China
bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ
bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene
bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units
bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher
bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure
bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed
bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand
Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55
Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom
Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom
Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom
Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom
wwwiciscom 56
Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets
Pricing information
- ButadieneC4s- Ethylene
Request your free sample report gtgt
We produce reliable price assessments and analyses covering Asian aromatics and olefins markets including price histories and a 12-month rolling price forecast enabling you to understand price drivers and settle your contract prices more confidently Our pricing coverage includes
- Mixed xylenes
- Propylene- Toluene
Real-time news serviceBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news including updates on plant capacities output and shutdowns
In-depth analysis of ChinaThe comprehensive studies on olefins and aromatics provide credible data and analysis to support your annual sales and strategy planning by giving you all of the following
- Comprehensive market overviews with detailed regional supply data and company profiles for 2013-2017
- In-depth downstream demand analysis and forecasts - Detailed import analysis between 2012-2014
Enquire about the annual studies
Request a free trial
Supply and demand data We give you an end-to-end perspective across the global petrochemical and refinery supply chain enabling you to grasp the local or regional scenario in a global context Data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2030
Request a free demo
- Benzene- Cumene- Paraxylene ndash Orthoxylene- Styrene
wwwiciscom 57
Bringing you faster more effective ways to improve productivity and decision making
Data ExpressAccess manage and analyse data easier than ever before with our Data Express solutions
bull Excel Plug-in - instantly update your worksheets in Excelbull API ndash stream the latest data directly to your systems
Set up email alerts for the most fluid markets to help you stay on top of market movements and enable you to react faster to price changes and other major developments
Market Alerts
Enquire about our market alerts
Build chart and track your formulas and keep them all in one place using real-time pricing data via the ICIS Dashboard
Formula Builder
Request a trial
wwwiciscom 42wwwiciscom 42
Exports from Asia to US market sporadic highly dependent on price gap gasoline blending season and Asia demand
0
10
20
30
40
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250Q
ty in 000 tonnesU
SDto
nne
Price gap (Asia prompt vs US forward) Exports from Asia to US
Open arbitrage opportunities result in increase of Asia exports
Consistent upward trend leads to selling interest
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 43wwwiciscom 43
India TOL imports mainly from SE Asia and Iran
46
23
17
37
4
2014
Singapore Thailand Iran S Korea Europe Others
2015
50
24
9
37
7
Source customs data
Total= 288kt Total= 288kt
wwwiciscom 44wwwiciscom 44
NE Asia TOL supply could outstrip demand in H2 2016 on heavier downstream turnarounds permanent shutdowns
H2 2015 H2 2016
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S Oil Onsan old TDP Onsan 00 42 42 00 00 00
00 42 42 00 00 00FCFC Aroma 2 TDP Mailiao 67 200 00 00 00 00
67 200 00 00 00 00JX Nippon Oil TDP Mizushima A 00 00 75 75 00 00
00 00 75 75 00 0067 242 117 75 00 00
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecLotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 73 25 00KPIC Ulsan 00 00 00 83 00 00S Oil No 1 Onsan 00 146 146 00 00 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 167 333 00OCI Yeosu 00 00 00 33 00 00
00 146 146 357 358 00Mitsui Chemicals Chiba 00 00 00 83 83 00JX Nippon Oil Mizushima A 00 00 117 233 00 00Tonen General Wakayama 00 00 00 69 92 00
00 00 117 385 175 00FCFC Aroma No 2 Mailiao 83 250 00 00 00 00CPC No 6 Kaohsiung 40 00 20 80 20 00CPC No3 Kaoshiung 00 00 00 00 83 55
123 250 20 80 103 55123 396 283 822 636 55
Est TOL consumption loss from KR
Est TOL consumption loss from TW
Est TOL production loss from KR
Total est consumption loss from NE Asia
Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia
CONSUMPTION (mt)
PRODUCTION (mt)
Est TOL consumption loss from JPN
Est TOL production loss from JPN
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUlsan Aromatics Center TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 1000 500 00SKGC TDP Incheon 00 00 00 83 42 00LG Chem H D A (shut since Jan) Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38
38 38 38 1122 580 38Taiyo Oil TDP cut rate only Kikuma 42 07 00 00 00 00MSNC TDI (shut since April) Omuta 65 65 65 65 65 65
107 72 65 65 65 65145 110 103 1187 645 103
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSKGC Incheon 00 00 00 133 67 00
00 00 00 133 67 00Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 00 00 108 108 00 00JFEC Chiba 00 00 14 42 00 00
00 00 122 150 00 00CPC No 7 Kaohsiung 00 00 00 27 108 00CPC No 3 Kaohsiung 110 00 00 00 00 00
110 00 00 27 108 00110 00 122 310 175 00
Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia
PRODUCTION (mt)
CONSUMPTION (mt)
Est TOL consumption loss from KR
Est TOL consumption loss from JPNTotal est consumption loss from NE Asia
Est TOL production loss from KR
Est TOL production loss from JPN
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016
Qty
in to
nnes
Total est consumption loss from NE Asia Total est production loss from NE AsiaSource ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45
Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance
Source ICIS
bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016
bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread
bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption
bull Improvements in TOL blend values
bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading
bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer
bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers
bull Other competitively priced blendstocks
bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL
bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China
TOL supply
TOL demand
Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors
wwwiciscom 46
Drivers of benzene trade flow
wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47
-60-40-200204060
500550600650700750800850900
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea
China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016
020000400006000080000
100000120000140000160000180000200000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Tonn
es
Others
MiddleEastThailand
Malaysia
Taiwan
Japan
SouthKorea
China imports
Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand
Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance
Strong appetite for imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48
Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
Pric
e ($
tonn
e)
Tonn
es
Shore tank inventories
E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity
2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite
Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains
Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49
-80-60-40-20020406080100
500550600650700750800850900950
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15
Tonn
es
OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea
Imports from Asia increase
Imports lower due to higher China prices
S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015
Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates
US imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50
Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600Ja
n-14
Feb-
14M
ar-1
4A
pr-1
4M
ay-1
4Ju
n-14
Jul-1
4A
ug-1
4Se
p-14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Dec
-14
Jan-
15Fe
b-15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
May
-15
Jun-
15Ju
l-15
Aug
-15
Sep-
15O
ct-1
5N
ov-1
5D
ec-1
5Ja
n-16
Feb-
16M
ar-1
6A
pr-1
6
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)Naphtha-Benzene
Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene
$346t $193t $230t
wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51
S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32
Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300
SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15
YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37
2015 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25
S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25
SK Global Chem Incheon 200
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16
OthersTaiwanChinaUS
S Korea exports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52
Outlook increased supply likely to head to China
Source ICIS industry
Company Location BZ Start up period
Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016
Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16
Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos
(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul
Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16
Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16
Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16
Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017
Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex
Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017
Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017
KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017
Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017
Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726
Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322
Product Company Location Capacity(kta)
BZ usage Start up period
SM
Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16
Donghao China 300 240 May-16
Phenol
PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16
Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16
Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17
PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017
Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017
CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17
CPL
Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16
China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16
Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16
MDI
Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017
Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017
Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017
Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972
Consumption within China in 2016 637 655
wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53
Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season
S Korea 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75
BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0
S Korea 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5
KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26
S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13
BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3
Japan 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36
Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12
BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0
Japan 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23
Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24
JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24
BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17
Source ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54
BZ demandBZ supply
bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China
bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ
bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene
bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units
bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher
bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure
bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed
bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand
Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55
Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom
Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom
Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom
Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom
wwwiciscom 56
Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets
Pricing information
- ButadieneC4s- Ethylene
Request your free sample report gtgt
We produce reliable price assessments and analyses covering Asian aromatics and olefins markets including price histories and a 12-month rolling price forecast enabling you to understand price drivers and settle your contract prices more confidently Our pricing coverage includes
- Mixed xylenes
- Propylene- Toluene
Real-time news serviceBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news including updates on plant capacities output and shutdowns
In-depth analysis of ChinaThe comprehensive studies on olefins and aromatics provide credible data and analysis to support your annual sales and strategy planning by giving you all of the following
- Comprehensive market overviews with detailed regional supply data and company profiles for 2013-2017
- In-depth downstream demand analysis and forecasts - Detailed import analysis between 2012-2014
Enquire about the annual studies
Request a free trial
Supply and demand data We give you an end-to-end perspective across the global petrochemical and refinery supply chain enabling you to grasp the local or regional scenario in a global context Data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2030
Request a free demo
- Benzene- Cumene- Paraxylene ndash Orthoxylene- Styrene
wwwiciscom 57
Bringing you faster more effective ways to improve productivity and decision making
Data ExpressAccess manage and analyse data easier than ever before with our Data Express solutions
bull Excel Plug-in - instantly update your worksheets in Excelbull API ndash stream the latest data directly to your systems
Set up email alerts for the most fluid markets to help you stay on top of market movements and enable you to react faster to price changes and other major developments
Market Alerts
Enquire about our market alerts
Build chart and track your formulas and keep them all in one place using real-time pricing data via the ICIS Dashboard
Formula Builder
Request a trial
wwwiciscom 43wwwiciscom 43
India TOL imports mainly from SE Asia and Iran
46
23
17
37
4
2014
Singapore Thailand Iran S Korea Europe Others
2015
50
24
9
37
7
Source customs data
Total= 288kt Total= 288kt
wwwiciscom 44wwwiciscom 44
NE Asia TOL supply could outstrip demand in H2 2016 on heavier downstream turnarounds permanent shutdowns
H2 2015 H2 2016
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S Oil Onsan old TDP Onsan 00 42 42 00 00 00
00 42 42 00 00 00FCFC Aroma 2 TDP Mailiao 67 200 00 00 00 00
67 200 00 00 00 00JX Nippon Oil TDP Mizushima A 00 00 75 75 00 00
00 00 75 75 00 0067 242 117 75 00 00
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecLotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 73 25 00KPIC Ulsan 00 00 00 83 00 00S Oil No 1 Onsan 00 146 146 00 00 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 167 333 00OCI Yeosu 00 00 00 33 00 00
00 146 146 357 358 00Mitsui Chemicals Chiba 00 00 00 83 83 00JX Nippon Oil Mizushima A 00 00 117 233 00 00Tonen General Wakayama 00 00 00 69 92 00
00 00 117 385 175 00FCFC Aroma No 2 Mailiao 83 250 00 00 00 00CPC No 6 Kaohsiung 40 00 20 80 20 00CPC No3 Kaoshiung 00 00 00 00 83 55
123 250 20 80 103 55123 396 283 822 636 55
Est TOL consumption loss from KR
Est TOL consumption loss from TW
Est TOL production loss from KR
Total est consumption loss from NE Asia
Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia
CONSUMPTION (mt)
PRODUCTION (mt)
Est TOL consumption loss from JPN
Est TOL production loss from JPN
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUlsan Aromatics Center TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 1000 500 00SKGC TDP Incheon 00 00 00 83 42 00LG Chem H D A (shut since Jan) Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38
38 38 38 1122 580 38Taiyo Oil TDP cut rate only Kikuma 42 07 00 00 00 00MSNC TDI (shut since April) Omuta 65 65 65 65 65 65
107 72 65 65 65 65145 110 103 1187 645 103
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSKGC Incheon 00 00 00 133 67 00
00 00 00 133 67 00Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 00 00 108 108 00 00JFEC Chiba 00 00 14 42 00 00
00 00 122 150 00 00CPC No 7 Kaohsiung 00 00 00 27 108 00CPC No 3 Kaohsiung 110 00 00 00 00 00
110 00 00 27 108 00110 00 122 310 175 00
Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia
PRODUCTION (mt)
CONSUMPTION (mt)
Est TOL consumption loss from KR
Est TOL consumption loss from JPNTotal est consumption loss from NE Asia
Est TOL production loss from KR
Est TOL production loss from JPN
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016
Qty
in to
nnes
Total est consumption loss from NE Asia Total est production loss from NE AsiaSource ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45
Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance
Source ICIS
bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016
bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread
bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption
bull Improvements in TOL blend values
bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading
bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer
bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers
bull Other competitively priced blendstocks
bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL
bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China
TOL supply
TOL demand
Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors
wwwiciscom 46
Drivers of benzene trade flow
wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47
-60-40-200204060
500550600650700750800850900
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea
China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016
020000400006000080000
100000120000140000160000180000200000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Tonn
es
Others
MiddleEastThailand
Malaysia
Taiwan
Japan
SouthKorea
China imports
Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand
Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance
Strong appetite for imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48
Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
Pric
e ($
tonn
e)
Tonn
es
Shore tank inventories
E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity
2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite
Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains
Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49
-80-60-40-20020406080100
500550600650700750800850900950
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15
Tonn
es
OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea
Imports from Asia increase
Imports lower due to higher China prices
S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015
Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates
US imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50
Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600Ja
n-14
Feb-
14M
ar-1
4A
pr-1
4M
ay-1
4Ju
n-14
Jul-1
4A
ug-1
4Se
p-14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Dec
-14
Jan-
15Fe
b-15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
May
-15
Jun-
15Ju
l-15
Aug
-15
Sep-
15O
ct-1
5N
ov-1
5D
ec-1
5Ja
n-16
Feb-
16M
ar-1
6A
pr-1
6
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)Naphtha-Benzene
Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene
$346t $193t $230t
wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51
S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32
Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300
SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15
YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37
2015 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25
S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25
SK Global Chem Incheon 200
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16
OthersTaiwanChinaUS
S Korea exports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52
Outlook increased supply likely to head to China
Source ICIS industry
Company Location BZ Start up period
Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016
Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16
Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos
(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul
Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16
Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16
Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16
Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017
Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex
Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017
Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017
KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017
Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017
Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726
Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322
Product Company Location Capacity(kta)
BZ usage Start up period
SM
Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16
Donghao China 300 240 May-16
Phenol
PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16
Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16
Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17
PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017
Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017
CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17
CPL
Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16
China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16
Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16
MDI
Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017
Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017
Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017
Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972
Consumption within China in 2016 637 655
wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53
Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season
S Korea 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75
BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0
S Korea 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5
KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26
S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13
BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3
Japan 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36
Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12
BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0
Japan 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23
Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24
JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24
BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17
Source ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54
BZ demandBZ supply
bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China
bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ
bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene
bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units
bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher
bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure
bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed
bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand
Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55
Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom
Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom
Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom
Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom
wwwiciscom 56
Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets
Pricing information
- ButadieneC4s- Ethylene
Request your free sample report gtgt
We produce reliable price assessments and analyses covering Asian aromatics and olefins markets including price histories and a 12-month rolling price forecast enabling you to understand price drivers and settle your contract prices more confidently Our pricing coverage includes
- Mixed xylenes
- Propylene- Toluene
Real-time news serviceBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news including updates on plant capacities output and shutdowns
In-depth analysis of ChinaThe comprehensive studies on olefins and aromatics provide credible data and analysis to support your annual sales and strategy planning by giving you all of the following
- Comprehensive market overviews with detailed regional supply data and company profiles for 2013-2017
- In-depth downstream demand analysis and forecasts - Detailed import analysis between 2012-2014
Enquire about the annual studies
Request a free trial
Supply and demand data We give you an end-to-end perspective across the global petrochemical and refinery supply chain enabling you to grasp the local or regional scenario in a global context Data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2030
Request a free demo
- Benzene- Cumene- Paraxylene ndash Orthoxylene- Styrene
wwwiciscom 57
Bringing you faster more effective ways to improve productivity and decision making
Data ExpressAccess manage and analyse data easier than ever before with our Data Express solutions
bull Excel Plug-in - instantly update your worksheets in Excelbull API ndash stream the latest data directly to your systems
Set up email alerts for the most fluid markets to help you stay on top of market movements and enable you to react faster to price changes and other major developments
Market Alerts
Enquire about our market alerts
Build chart and track your formulas and keep them all in one place using real-time pricing data via the ICIS Dashboard
Formula Builder
Request a trial
wwwiciscom 44wwwiciscom 44
NE Asia TOL supply could outstrip demand in H2 2016 on heavier downstream turnarounds permanent shutdowns
H2 2015 H2 2016
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S Oil Onsan old TDP Onsan 00 42 42 00 00 00
00 42 42 00 00 00FCFC Aroma 2 TDP Mailiao 67 200 00 00 00 00
67 200 00 00 00 00JX Nippon Oil TDP Mizushima A 00 00 75 75 00 00
00 00 75 75 00 0067 242 117 75 00 00
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecLotte Chemical Daesan 00 00 00 73 25 00KPIC Ulsan 00 00 00 83 00 00S Oil No 1 Onsan 00 146 146 00 00 00SKGC Ulsan 00 00 00 167 333 00OCI Yeosu 00 00 00 33 00 00
00 146 146 357 358 00Mitsui Chemicals Chiba 00 00 00 83 83 00JX Nippon Oil Mizushima A 00 00 117 233 00 00Tonen General Wakayama 00 00 00 69 92 00
00 00 117 385 175 00FCFC Aroma No 2 Mailiao 83 250 00 00 00 00CPC No 6 Kaohsiung 40 00 20 80 20 00CPC No3 Kaoshiung 00 00 00 00 83 55
123 250 20 80 103 55123 396 283 822 636 55
Est TOL consumption loss from KR
Est TOL consumption loss from TW
Est TOL production loss from KR
Total est consumption loss from NE Asia
Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia
CONSUMPTION (mt)
PRODUCTION (mt)
Est TOL consumption loss from JPN
Est TOL production loss from JPN
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecUlsan Aromatics Center TDP Ulsan 00 00 00 1000 500 00SKGC TDP Incheon 00 00 00 83 42 00LG Chem H D A (shut since Jan) Daesan 38 38 38 38 38 38
38 38 38 1122 580 38Taiyo Oil TDP cut rate only Kikuma 42 07 00 00 00 00MSNC TDI (shut since April) Omuta 65 65 65 65 65 65
107 72 65 65 65 65145 110 103 1187 645 103
Producer Location Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSKGC Incheon 00 00 00 133 67 00
00 00 00 133 67 00Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 00 00 108 108 00 00JFEC Chiba 00 00 14 42 00 00
00 00 122 150 00 00CPC No 7 Kaohsiung 00 00 00 27 108 00CPC No 3 Kaohsiung 110 00 00 00 00 00
110 00 00 27 108 00110 00 122 310 175 00
Est TOL production loss from TWTotal est production loss from NE Asia
PRODUCTION (mt)
CONSUMPTION (mt)
Est TOL consumption loss from KR
Est TOL consumption loss from JPNTotal est consumption loss from NE Asia
Est TOL production loss from KR
Est TOL production loss from JPN
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016
Qty
in to
nnes
Total est consumption loss from NE Asia Total est production loss from NE AsiaSource ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45
Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance
Source ICIS
bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016
bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread
bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption
bull Improvements in TOL blend values
bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading
bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer
bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers
bull Other competitively priced blendstocks
bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL
bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China
TOL supply
TOL demand
Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors
wwwiciscom 46
Drivers of benzene trade flow
wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47
-60-40-200204060
500550600650700750800850900
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea
China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016
020000400006000080000
100000120000140000160000180000200000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Tonn
es
Others
MiddleEastThailand
Malaysia
Taiwan
Japan
SouthKorea
China imports
Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand
Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance
Strong appetite for imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48
Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
Pric
e ($
tonn
e)
Tonn
es
Shore tank inventories
E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity
2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite
Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains
Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49
-80-60-40-20020406080100
500550600650700750800850900950
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15
Tonn
es
OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea
Imports from Asia increase
Imports lower due to higher China prices
S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015
Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates
US imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50
Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600Ja
n-14
Feb-
14M
ar-1
4A
pr-1
4M
ay-1
4Ju
n-14
Jul-1
4A
ug-1
4Se
p-14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Dec
-14
Jan-
15Fe
b-15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
May
-15
Jun-
15Ju
l-15
Aug
-15
Sep-
15O
ct-1
5N
ov-1
5D
ec-1
5Ja
n-16
Feb-
16M
ar-1
6A
pr-1
6
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)Naphtha-Benzene
Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene
$346t $193t $230t
wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51
S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32
Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300
SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15
YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37
2015 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25
S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25
SK Global Chem Incheon 200
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16
OthersTaiwanChinaUS
S Korea exports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52
Outlook increased supply likely to head to China
Source ICIS industry
Company Location BZ Start up period
Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016
Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16
Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos
(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul
Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16
Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16
Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16
Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017
Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex
Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017
Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017
KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017
Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017
Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726
Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322
Product Company Location Capacity(kta)
BZ usage Start up period
SM
Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16
Donghao China 300 240 May-16
Phenol
PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16
Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16
Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17
PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017
Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017
CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17
CPL
Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16
China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16
Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16
MDI
Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017
Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017
Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017
Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972
Consumption within China in 2016 637 655
wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53
Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season
S Korea 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75
BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0
S Korea 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5
KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26
S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13
BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3
Japan 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36
Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12
BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0
Japan 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23
Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24
JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24
BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17
Source ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54
BZ demandBZ supply
bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China
bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ
bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene
bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units
bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher
bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure
bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed
bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand
Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55
Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom
Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom
Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom
Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom
wwwiciscom 56
Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets
Pricing information
- ButadieneC4s- Ethylene
Request your free sample report gtgt
We produce reliable price assessments and analyses covering Asian aromatics and olefins markets including price histories and a 12-month rolling price forecast enabling you to understand price drivers and settle your contract prices more confidently Our pricing coverage includes
- Mixed xylenes
- Propylene- Toluene
Real-time news serviceBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news including updates on plant capacities output and shutdowns
In-depth analysis of ChinaThe comprehensive studies on olefins and aromatics provide credible data and analysis to support your annual sales and strategy planning by giving you all of the following
- Comprehensive market overviews with detailed regional supply data and company profiles for 2013-2017
- In-depth downstream demand analysis and forecasts - Detailed import analysis between 2012-2014
Enquire about the annual studies
Request a free trial
Supply and demand data We give you an end-to-end perspective across the global petrochemical and refinery supply chain enabling you to grasp the local or regional scenario in a global context Data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2030
Request a free demo
- Benzene- Cumene- Paraxylene ndash Orthoxylene- Styrene
wwwiciscom 57
Bringing you faster more effective ways to improve productivity and decision making
Data ExpressAccess manage and analyse data easier than ever before with our Data Express solutions
bull Excel Plug-in - instantly update your worksheets in Excelbull API ndash stream the latest data directly to your systems
Set up email alerts for the most fluid markets to help you stay on top of market movements and enable you to react faster to price changes and other major developments
Market Alerts
Enquire about our market alerts
Build chart and track your formulas and keep them all in one place using real-time pricing data via the ICIS Dashboard
Formula Builder
Request a trial
wwwiciscom 45wwwiciscom 45
Key factors determining Asiarsquos TOL trade flow balance
Source ICIS
bull Regular downstream plant turnaround schedules in autumn 2016
bull Possible reduction in plant run rate on narrowing TOL-naphtha spread
bull Healthy TDP spreads for TOL consumption
bull Improvements in TOL blend values
bull High Chinese shoretank inventory levels and speculative trading
bull Possible opening of arbitrage window to the US during Jul-Aug summer
bull NE Asia buyers to turn into sellers
bull Other competitively priced blendstocks
bull Change in gasoline standards in domestic China more usage of TOL
bull Start-ups of several integrated aromatics units in Middle East domestic China
TOL supply
TOL demand
Production factors Gasoline factorsChinese factors
wwwiciscom 46
Drivers of benzene trade flow
wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47
-60-40-200204060
500550600650700750800850900
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea
China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016
020000400006000080000
100000120000140000160000180000200000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Tonn
es
Others
MiddleEastThailand
Malaysia
Taiwan
Japan
SouthKorea
China imports
Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand
Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance
Strong appetite for imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48
Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
Pric
e ($
tonn
e)
Tonn
es
Shore tank inventories
E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity
2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite
Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains
Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49
-80-60-40-20020406080100
500550600650700750800850900950
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15
Tonn
es
OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea
Imports from Asia increase
Imports lower due to higher China prices
S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015
Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates
US imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50
Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600Ja
n-14
Feb-
14M
ar-1
4A
pr-1
4M
ay-1
4Ju
n-14
Jul-1
4A
ug-1
4Se
p-14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Dec
-14
Jan-
15Fe
b-15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
May
-15
Jun-
15Ju
l-15
Aug
-15
Sep-
15O
ct-1
5N
ov-1
5D
ec-1
5Ja
n-16
Feb-
16M
ar-1
6A
pr-1
6
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)Naphtha-Benzene
Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene
$346t $193t $230t
wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51
S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32
Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300
SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15
YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37
2015 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25
S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25
SK Global Chem Incheon 200
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16
OthersTaiwanChinaUS
S Korea exports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52
Outlook increased supply likely to head to China
Source ICIS industry
Company Location BZ Start up period
Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016
Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16
Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos
(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul
Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16
Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16
Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16
Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017
Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex
Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017
Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017
KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017
Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017
Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726
Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322
Product Company Location Capacity(kta)
BZ usage Start up period
SM
Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16
Donghao China 300 240 May-16
Phenol
PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16
Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16
Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17
PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017
Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017
CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17
CPL
Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16
China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16
Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16
MDI
Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017
Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017
Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017
Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972
Consumption within China in 2016 637 655
wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53
Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season
S Korea 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75
BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0
S Korea 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5
KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26
S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13
BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3
Japan 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36
Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12
BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0
Japan 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23
Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24
JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24
BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17
Source ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54
BZ demandBZ supply
bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China
bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ
bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene
bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units
bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher
bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure
bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed
bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand
Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55
Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom
Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom
Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom
Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom
wwwiciscom 56
Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets
Pricing information
- ButadieneC4s- Ethylene
Request your free sample report gtgt
We produce reliable price assessments and analyses covering Asian aromatics and olefins markets including price histories and a 12-month rolling price forecast enabling you to understand price drivers and settle your contract prices more confidently Our pricing coverage includes
- Mixed xylenes
- Propylene- Toluene
Real-time news serviceBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news including updates on plant capacities output and shutdowns
In-depth analysis of ChinaThe comprehensive studies on olefins and aromatics provide credible data and analysis to support your annual sales and strategy planning by giving you all of the following
- Comprehensive market overviews with detailed regional supply data and company profiles for 2013-2017
- In-depth downstream demand analysis and forecasts - Detailed import analysis between 2012-2014
Enquire about the annual studies
Request a free trial
Supply and demand data We give you an end-to-end perspective across the global petrochemical and refinery supply chain enabling you to grasp the local or regional scenario in a global context Data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2030
Request a free demo
- Benzene- Cumene- Paraxylene ndash Orthoxylene- Styrene
wwwiciscom 57
Bringing you faster more effective ways to improve productivity and decision making
Data ExpressAccess manage and analyse data easier than ever before with our Data Express solutions
bull Excel Plug-in - instantly update your worksheets in Excelbull API ndash stream the latest data directly to your systems
Set up email alerts for the most fluid markets to help you stay on top of market movements and enable you to react faster to price changes and other major developments
Market Alerts
Enquire about our market alerts
Build chart and track your formulas and keep them all in one place using real-time pricing data via the ICIS Dashboard
Formula Builder
Request a trial
wwwiciscom 46
Drivers of benzene trade flow
wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47
-60-40-200204060
500550600650700750800850900
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea
China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016
020000400006000080000
100000120000140000160000180000200000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Tonn
es
Others
MiddleEastThailand
Malaysia
Taiwan
Japan
SouthKorea
China imports
Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand
Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance
Strong appetite for imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48
Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
Pric
e ($
tonn
e)
Tonn
es
Shore tank inventories
E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity
2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite
Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains
Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49
-80-60-40-20020406080100
500550600650700750800850900950
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15
Tonn
es
OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea
Imports from Asia increase
Imports lower due to higher China prices
S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015
Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates
US imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50
Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600Ja
n-14
Feb-
14M
ar-1
4A
pr-1
4M
ay-1
4Ju
n-14
Jul-1
4A
ug-1
4Se
p-14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Dec
-14
Jan-
15Fe
b-15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
May
-15
Jun-
15Ju
l-15
Aug
-15
Sep-
15O
ct-1
5N
ov-1
5D
ec-1
5Ja
n-16
Feb-
16M
ar-1
6A
pr-1
6
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)Naphtha-Benzene
Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene
$346t $193t $230t
wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51
S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32
Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300
SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15
YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37
2015 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25
S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25
SK Global Chem Incheon 200
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16
OthersTaiwanChinaUS
S Korea exports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52
Outlook increased supply likely to head to China
Source ICIS industry
Company Location BZ Start up period
Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016
Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16
Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos
(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul
Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16
Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16
Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16
Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017
Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex
Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017
Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017
KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017
Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017
Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726
Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322
Product Company Location Capacity(kta)
BZ usage Start up period
SM
Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16
Donghao China 300 240 May-16
Phenol
PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16
Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16
Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17
PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017
Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017
CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17
CPL
Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16
China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16
Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16
MDI
Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017
Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017
Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017
Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972
Consumption within China in 2016 637 655
wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53
Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season
S Korea 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75
BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0
S Korea 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5
KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26
S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13
BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3
Japan 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36
Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12
BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0
Japan 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23
Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24
JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24
BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17
Source ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54
BZ demandBZ supply
bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China
bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ
bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene
bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units
bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher
bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure
bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed
bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand
Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55
Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom
Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom
Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom
Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom
wwwiciscom 56
Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets
Pricing information
- ButadieneC4s- Ethylene
Request your free sample report gtgt
We produce reliable price assessments and analyses covering Asian aromatics and olefins markets including price histories and a 12-month rolling price forecast enabling you to understand price drivers and settle your contract prices more confidently Our pricing coverage includes
- Mixed xylenes
- Propylene- Toluene
Real-time news serviceBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news including updates on plant capacities output and shutdowns
In-depth analysis of ChinaThe comprehensive studies on olefins and aromatics provide credible data and analysis to support your annual sales and strategy planning by giving you all of the following
- Comprehensive market overviews with detailed regional supply data and company profiles for 2013-2017
- In-depth downstream demand analysis and forecasts - Detailed import analysis between 2012-2014
Enquire about the annual studies
Request a free trial
Supply and demand data We give you an end-to-end perspective across the global petrochemical and refinery supply chain enabling you to grasp the local or regional scenario in a global context Data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2030
Request a free demo
- Benzene- Cumene- Paraxylene ndash Orthoxylene- Styrene
wwwiciscom 57
Bringing you faster more effective ways to improve productivity and decision making
Data ExpressAccess manage and analyse data easier than ever before with our Data Express solutions
bull Excel Plug-in - instantly update your worksheets in Excelbull API ndash stream the latest data directly to your systems
Set up email alerts for the most fluid markets to help you stay on top of market movements and enable you to react faster to price changes and other major developments
Market Alerts
Enquire about our market alerts
Build chart and track your formulas and keep them all in one place using real-time pricing data via the ICIS Dashboard
Formula Builder
Request a trial
wwwiciscom 47wwwiciscom 47
-60-40-200204060
500550600650700750800850900
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
CFRC-FOBK CFR China FOB Korea
China import window largely in Q1 2015 and Q1 2016
020000400006000080000
100000120000140000160000180000200000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Tonn
es
Others
MiddleEastThailand
Malaysia
Taiwan
Japan
SouthKorea
China imports
Increases mostly from S Korea Thailand
Import window largely closed due to weak demand in H2 2015 on the back of downstream SM MDI turnarounds poor phenol performance
Strong appetite for imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48
Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
Pric
e ($
tonn
e)
Tonn
es
Shore tank inventories
E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity
2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite
Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains
Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49
-80-60-40-20020406080100
500550600650700750800850900950
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15
Tonn
es
OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea
Imports from Asia increase
Imports lower due to higher China prices
S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015
Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates
US imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50
Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600Ja
n-14
Feb-
14M
ar-1
4A
pr-1
4M
ay-1
4Ju
n-14
Jul-1
4A
ug-1
4Se
p-14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Dec
-14
Jan-
15Fe
b-15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
May
-15
Jun-
15Ju
l-15
Aug
-15
Sep-
15O
ct-1
5N
ov-1
5D
ec-1
5Ja
n-16
Feb-
16M
ar-1
6A
pr-1
6
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)Naphtha-Benzene
Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene
$346t $193t $230t
wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51
S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32
Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300
SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15
YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37
2015 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25
S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25
SK Global Chem Incheon 200
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16
OthersTaiwanChinaUS
S Korea exports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52
Outlook increased supply likely to head to China
Source ICIS industry
Company Location BZ Start up period
Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016
Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16
Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos
(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul
Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16
Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16
Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16
Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017
Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex
Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017
Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017
KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017
Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017
Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726
Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322
Product Company Location Capacity(kta)
BZ usage Start up period
SM
Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16
Donghao China 300 240 May-16
Phenol
PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16
Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16
Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17
PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017
Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017
CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17
CPL
Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16
China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16
Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16
MDI
Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017
Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017
Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017
Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972
Consumption within China in 2016 637 655
wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53
Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season
S Korea 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75
BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0
S Korea 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5
KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26
S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13
BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3
Japan 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36
Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12
BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0
Japan 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23
Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24
JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24
BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17
Source ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54
BZ demandBZ supply
bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China
bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ
bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene
bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units
bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher
bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure
bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed
bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand
Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55
Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom
Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom
Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom
Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom
wwwiciscom 56
Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets
Pricing information
- ButadieneC4s- Ethylene
Request your free sample report gtgt
We produce reliable price assessments and analyses covering Asian aromatics and olefins markets including price histories and a 12-month rolling price forecast enabling you to understand price drivers and settle your contract prices more confidently Our pricing coverage includes
- Mixed xylenes
- Propylene- Toluene
Real-time news serviceBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news including updates on plant capacities output and shutdowns
In-depth analysis of ChinaThe comprehensive studies on olefins and aromatics provide credible data and analysis to support your annual sales and strategy planning by giving you all of the following
- Comprehensive market overviews with detailed regional supply data and company profiles for 2013-2017
- In-depth downstream demand analysis and forecasts - Detailed import analysis between 2012-2014
Enquire about the annual studies
Request a free trial
Supply and demand data We give you an end-to-end perspective across the global petrochemical and refinery supply chain enabling you to grasp the local or regional scenario in a global context Data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2030
Request a free demo
- Benzene- Cumene- Paraxylene ndash Orthoxylene- Styrene
wwwiciscom 57
Bringing you faster more effective ways to improve productivity and decision making
Data ExpressAccess manage and analyse data easier than ever before with our Data Express solutions
bull Excel Plug-in - instantly update your worksheets in Excelbull API ndash stream the latest data directly to your systems
Set up email alerts for the most fluid markets to help you stay on top of market movements and enable you to react faster to price changes and other major developments
Market Alerts
Enquire about our market alerts
Build chart and track your formulas and keep them all in one place using real-time pricing data via the ICIS Dashboard
Formula Builder
Request a trial
wwwiciscom 48wwwiciscom 48
Fewer traders holding cargoes at shore tanks in 2016 due to increased risks
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
-
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
Pric
e ($
tonn
e)
Tonn
es
Shore tank inventories
E China (Jiangsu) BZ (crude-based only) CFR China - Sinopec price import parity
2015 High inventory level due to heavy imports in Q1 Sharp price declines in domestic market resulted in wide gap leading to weakened buying appetite
Inventories relatively steady on less speculative trading Co-relation between inventory level and prices weaker but high-cost inventories remains
Wide price gap against domestic prices limited imports in 2014
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49
-80-60-40-20020406080100
500550600650700750800850900950
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15
Tonn
es
OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea
Imports from Asia increase
Imports lower due to higher China prices
S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015
Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates
US imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50
Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600Ja
n-14
Feb-
14M
ar-1
4A
pr-1
4M
ay-1
4Ju
n-14
Jul-1
4A
ug-1
4Se
p-14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Dec
-14
Jan-
15Fe
b-15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
May
-15
Jun-
15Ju
l-15
Aug
-15
Sep-
15O
ct-1
5N
ov-1
5D
ec-1
5Ja
n-16
Feb-
16M
ar-1
6A
pr-1
6
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)Naphtha-Benzene
Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene
$346t $193t $230t
wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51
S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32
Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300
SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15
YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37
2015 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25
S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25
SK Global Chem Incheon 200
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16
OthersTaiwanChinaUS
S Korea exports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52
Outlook increased supply likely to head to China
Source ICIS industry
Company Location BZ Start up period
Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016
Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16
Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos
(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul
Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16
Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16
Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16
Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017
Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex
Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017
Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017
KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017
Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017
Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726
Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322
Product Company Location Capacity(kta)
BZ usage Start up period
SM
Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16
Donghao China 300 240 May-16
Phenol
PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16
Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16
Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17
PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017
Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017
CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17
CPL
Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16
China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16
Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16
MDI
Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017
Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017
Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017
Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972
Consumption within China in 2016 637 655
wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53
Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season
S Korea 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75
BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0
S Korea 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5
KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26
S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13
BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3
Japan 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36
Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12
BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0
Japan 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23
Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24
JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24
BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17
Source ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54
BZ demandBZ supply
bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China
bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ
bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene
bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units
bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher
bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure
bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed
bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand
Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55
Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom
Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom
Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom
Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom
wwwiciscom 56
Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets
Pricing information
- ButadieneC4s- Ethylene
Request your free sample report gtgt
We produce reliable price assessments and analyses covering Asian aromatics and olefins markets including price histories and a 12-month rolling price forecast enabling you to understand price drivers and settle your contract prices more confidently Our pricing coverage includes
- Mixed xylenes
- Propylene- Toluene
Real-time news serviceBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news including updates on plant capacities output and shutdowns
In-depth analysis of ChinaThe comprehensive studies on olefins and aromatics provide credible data and analysis to support your annual sales and strategy planning by giving you all of the following
- Comprehensive market overviews with detailed regional supply data and company profiles for 2013-2017
- In-depth downstream demand analysis and forecasts - Detailed import analysis between 2012-2014
Enquire about the annual studies
Request a free trial
Supply and demand data We give you an end-to-end perspective across the global petrochemical and refinery supply chain enabling you to grasp the local or regional scenario in a global context Data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2030
Request a free demo
- Benzene- Cumene- Paraxylene ndash Orthoxylene- Styrene
wwwiciscom 57
Bringing you faster more effective ways to improve productivity and decision making
Data ExpressAccess manage and analyse data easier than ever before with our Data Express solutions
bull Excel Plug-in - instantly update your worksheets in Excelbull API ndash stream the latest data directly to your systems
Set up email alerts for the most fluid markets to help you stay on top of market movements and enable you to react faster to price changes and other major developments
Market Alerts
Enquire about our market alerts
Build chart and track your formulas and keep them all in one place using real-time pricing data via the ICIS Dashboard
Formula Builder
Request a trial
wwwiciscom 49wwwiciscom 49
-80-60-40-20020406080100
500550600650700750800850900950
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
USG-FOBK DDP USG FOB Korea
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15
Tonn
es
OthersIndiaSingaporeCanadaBelgiumNetherlandsBrazilJapanKorea
Imports from Asia increase
Imports lower due to higher China prices
S Korea-US arbitrage limited to H2 2015
Overall US imports increase on recovery in downstream operating rates
US imports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50
Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600Ja
n-14
Feb-
14M
ar-1
4A
pr-1
4M
ay-1
4Ju
n-14
Jul-1
4A
ug-1
4Se
p-14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Dec
-14
Jan-
15Fe
b-15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
May
-15
Jun-
15Ju
l-15
Aug
-15
Sep-
15O
ct-1
5N
ov-1
5D
ec-1
5Ja
n-16
Feb-
16M
ar-1
6A
pr-1
6
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)Naphtha-Benzene
Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene
$346t $193t $230t
wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51
S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32
Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300
SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15
YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37
2015 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25
S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25
SK Global Chem Incheon 200
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16
OthersTaiwanChinaUS
S Korea exports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52
Outlook increased supply likely to head to China
Source ICIS industry
Company Location BZ Start up period
Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016
Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16
Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos
(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul
Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16
Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16
Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16
Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017
Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex
Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017
Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017
KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017
Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017
Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726
Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322
Product Company Location Capacity(kta)
BZ usage Start up period
SM
Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16
Donghao China 300 240 May-16
Phenol
PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16
Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16
Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17
PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017
Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017
CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17
CPL
Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16
China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16
Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16
MDI
Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017
Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017
Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017
Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972
Consumption within China in 2016 637 655
wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53
Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season
S Korea 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75
BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0
S Korea 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5
KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26
S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13
BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3
Japan 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36
Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12
BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0
Japan 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23
Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24
JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24
BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17
Source ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54
BZ demandBZ supply
bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China
bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ
bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene
bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units
bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher
bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure
bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed
bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand
Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55
Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom
Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom
Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom
Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom
wwwiciscom 56
Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets
Pricing information
- ButadieneC4s- Ethylene
Request your free sample report gtgt
We produce reliable price assessments and analyses covering Asian aromatics and olefins markets including price histories and a 12-month rolling price forecast enabling you to understand price drivers and settle your contract prices more confidently Our pricing coverage includes
- Mixed xylenes
- Propylene- Toluene
Real-time news serviceBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news including updates on plant capacities output and shutdowns
In-depth analysis of ChinaThe comprehensive studies on olefins and aromatics provide credible data and analysis to support your annual sales and strategy planning by giving you all of the following
- Comprehensive market overviews with detailed regional supply data and company profiles for 2013-2017
- In-depth downstream demand analysis and forecasts - Detailed import analysis between 2012-2014
Enquire about the annual studies
Request a free trial
Supply and demand data We give you an end-to-end perspective across the global petrochemical and refinery supply chain enabling you to grasp the local or regional scenario in a global context Data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2030
Request a free demo
- Benzene- Cumene- Paraxylene ndash Orthoxylene- Styrene
wwwiciscom 57
Bringing you faster more effective ways to improve productivity and decision making
Data ExpressAccess manage and analyse data easier than ever before with our Data Express solutions
bull Excel Plug-in - instantly update your worksheets in Excelbull API ndash stream the latest data directly to your systems
Set up email alerts for the most fluid markets to help you stay on top of market movements and enable you to react faster to price changes and other major developments
Market Alerts
Enquire about our market alerts
Build chart and track your formulas and keep them all in one place using real-time pricing data via the ICIS Dashboard
Formula Builder
Request a trial
wwwiciscom 50wwwiciscom 50
Naphtha-based producers keep op rates high on strong spreads
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600Ja
n-14
Feb-
14M
ar-1
4A
pr-1
4M
ay-1
4Ju
n-14
Jul-1
4A
ug-1
4Se
p-14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Dec
-14
Jan-
15Fe
b-15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
May
-15
Jun-
15Ju
l-15
Aug
-15
Sep-
15O
ct-1
5N
ov-1
5D
ec-1
5Ja
n-16
Feb-
16M
ar-1
6A
pr-1
6
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)
Pric
es ($
tonn
e)Naphtha-Benzene
Price Gap FOB Korea Benzene CFR Japan Naphtha CFR China Paraxylene
$346t $193t $230t
wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51
S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32
Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300
SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15
YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37
2015 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25
S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25
SK Global Chem Incheon 200
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16
OthersTaiwanChinaUS
S Korea exports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52
Outlook increased supply likely to head to China
Source ICIS industry
Company Location BZ Start up period
Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016
Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16
Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos
(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul
Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16
Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16
Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16
Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017
Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex
Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017
Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017
KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017
Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017
Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726
Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322
Product Company Location Capacity(kta)
BZ usage Start up period
SM
Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16
Donghao China 300 240 May-16
Phenol
PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16
Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16
Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17
PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017
Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017
CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17
CPL
Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16
China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16
Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16
MDI
Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017
Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017
Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017
Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972
Consumption within China in 2016 637 655
wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53
Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season
S Korea 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75
BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0
S Korea 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5
KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26
S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13
BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3
Japan 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36
Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12
BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0
Japan 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23
Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24
JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24
BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17
Source ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54
BZ demandBZ supply
bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China
bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ
bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene
bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units
bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher
bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure
bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed
bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand
Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55
Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom
Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom
Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom
Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom
wwwiciscom 56
Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets
Pricing information
- ButadieneC4s- Ethylene
Request your free sample report gtgt
We produce reliable price assessments and analyses covering Asian aromatics and olefins markets including price histories and a 12-month rolling price forecast enabling you to understand price drivers and settle your contract prices more confidently Our pricing coverage includes
- Mixed xylenes
- Propylene- Toluene
Real-time news serviceBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news including updates on plant capacities output and shutdowns
In-depth analysis of ChinaThe comprehensive studies on olefins and aromatics provide credible data and analysis to support your annual sales and strategy planning by giving you all of the following
- Comprehensive market overviews with detailed regional supply data and company profiles for 2013-2017
- In-depth downstream demand analysis and forecasts - Detailed import analysis between 2012-2014
Enquire about the annual studies
Request a free trial
Supply and demand data We give you an end-to-end perspective across the global petrochemical and refinery supply chain enabling you to grasp the local or regional scenario in a global context Data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2030
Request a free demo
- Benzene- Cumene- Paraxylene ndash Orthoxylene- Styrene
wwwiciscom 57
Bringing you faster more effective ways to improve productivity and decision making
Data ExpressAccess manage and analyse data easier than ever before with our Data Express solutions
bull Excel Plug-in - instantly update your worksheets in Excelbull API ndash stream the latest data directly to your systems
Set up email alerts for the most fluid markets to help you stay on top of market movements and enable you to react faster to price changes and other major developments
Market Alerts
Enquire about our market alerts
Build chart and track your formulas and keep them all in one place using real-time pricing data via the ICIS Dashboard
Formula Builder
Request a trial
wwwiciscom 51wwwiciscom 51
S Korearsquos H1 2016 production fell YoY due to turnarounds2016 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Lotte Chemical Yeosu 240 23GSCX Yeosu 420 53GSCX Yeosu 250 32
Hanwha Total Daesan 500 36Soil Onsan 300
SK Global Chem Ulsan 125 13SK Global Chem Ulsan 180 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 140 15
YNCC Yeosu 2 120 10BZ Production loss 205 6 0 33 89 40 37
2015 H1
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 120 13Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 100 11Hyundai Cosmo Daesan 20 2Lotte Chemical Daesan 240LG Chemical Daesan 260 25
S-Oil Onsan 2 300 13 25
SK Global Chem Incheon 200
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 18BZ Production loss 120 8 0 25 49 32 6
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16
OthersTaiwanChinaUS
S Korea exports
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52
Outlook increased supply likely to head to China
Source ICIS industry
Company Location BZ Start up period
Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016
Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16
Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos
(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul
Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16
Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16
Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16
Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017
Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex
Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017
Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017
KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017
Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017
Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726
Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322
Product Company Location Capacity(kta)
BZ usage Start up period
SM
Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16
Donghao China 300 240 May-16
Phenol
PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16
Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16
Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17
PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017
Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017
CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17
CPL
Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16
China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16
Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16
MDI
Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017
Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017
Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017
Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972
Consumption within China in 2016 637 655
wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53
Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season
S Korea 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75
BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0
S Korea 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5
KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26
S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13
BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3
Japan 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36
Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12
BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0
Japan 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23
Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24
JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24
BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17
Source ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54
BZ demandBZ supply
bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China
bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ
bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene
bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units
bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher
bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure
bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed
bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand
Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55
Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom
Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom
Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom
Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom
wwwiciscom 56
Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets
Pricing information
- ButadieneC4s- Ethylene
Request your free sample report gtgt
We produce reliable price assessments and analyses covering Asian aromatics and olefins markets including price histories and a 12-month rolling price forecast enabling you to understand price drivers and settle your contract prices more confidently Our pricing coverage includes
- Mixed xylenes
- Propylene- Toluene
Real-time news serviceBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news including updates on plant capacities output and shutdowns
In-depth analysis of ChinaThe comprehensive studies on olefins and aromatics provide credible data and analysis to support your annual sales and strategy planning by giving you all of the following
- Comprehensive market overviews with detailed regional supply data and company profiles for 2013-2017
- In-depth downstream demand analysis and forecasts - Detailed import analysis between 2012-2014
Enquire about the annual studies
Request a free trial
Supply and demand data We give you an end-to-end perspective across the global petrochemical and refinery supply chain enabling you to grasp the local or regional scenario in a global context Data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2030
Request a free demo
- Benzene- Cumene- Paraxylene ndash Orthoxylene- Styrene
wwwiciscom 57
Bringing you faster more effective ways to improve productivity and decision making
Data ExpressAccess manage and analyse data easier than ever before with our Data Express solutions
bull Excel Plug-in - instantly update your worksheets in Excelbull API ndash stream the latest data directly to your systems
Set up email alerts for the most fluid markets to help you stay on top of market movements and enable you to react faster to price changes and other major developments
Market Alerts
Enquire about our market alerts
Build chart and track your formulas and keep them all in one place using real-time pricing data via the ICIS Dashboard
Formula Builder
Request a trial
wwwiciscom 52wwwiciscom 52
Outlook increased supply likely to head to China
Source ICIS industry
Company Location BZ Start up period
Reliance Jamnagar India 500 Q4 2016
Hyundai Chemical Daesan 500 Oct-16
Sadara Chemical Al Jubail KSA 280 Q2 2016ONGC Petro-additions Limitedrsquos
(Opal) Dahej India 150 end June-Jul
Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) Yanbu KSA 140 Jan-16
Petrochina Yunnan Yunnan China 130 Oct-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 80 May-16
Showa Shell Yokkaichi 70 Jul-16
Youtai Technology Shandong China 30 2017
Nghi Son refinery amp petrochemical complex
Thanh Hoa Vietnam 200 2017
Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 H1 2017
KPIC Onsan Korea 130 2017
Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017
Total benzene supply increase in 2016 726
Supply increase within China 2016 96 1322
Product Company Location Capacity(kta)
BZ usage Start up period
SM
Lihuayi China 80 64 Jan-16
Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang China 280 224 May-16
Donghao China 300 240 May-16
Phenol
PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut 250 225 May-16
Kumho Yeosu 300 270 May-16
Petro Rabigh Rabigh 275 248 Q4 16 - Q1 17
PTT Map Ta Phut 50 45 Q2 2017
Deepak Nitrite Dahej Gujarat 200 180 1H 2017
CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong 220 198 Jun-17
CPL
Shenma Group Henan 200 186 Jan-16
China Petrochemical Development Corp Miaoli Toufen 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lanhua Sci-tech Venture Co Jincheng Shanxi 100 93 Jun-16
Xuyang Chemical Hebei Cangzhou 100 93 Jun-16
Shanxi Lubao Group Shaanxi 100 93 Oct-16
MDI
Bayer Polyurethanes (Shanghai) Co Ltd Shanghai China 500 335 2017
Sadara Chemicals Saudi Arabia Al Jubail 400 268 Q1 2017
Huntsman Polyurethane Shanghai Shanghai China 240 1608 2017
Total benzene consumption increase in 2016 972
Consumption within China in 2016 637 655
wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53
Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season
S Korea 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75
BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0
S Korea 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5
KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26
S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13
BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3
Japan 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36
Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12
BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0
Japan 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23
Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24
JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24
BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17
Source ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54
BZ demandBZ supply
bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China
bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ
bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene
bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units
bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher
bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure
bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed
bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand
Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55
Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom
Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom
Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom
Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom
wwwiciscom 56
Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets
Pricing information
- ButadieneC4s- Ethylene
Request your free sample report gtgt
We produce reliable price assessments and analyses covering Asian aromatics and olefins markets including price histories and a 12-month rolling price forecast enabling you to understand price drivers and settle your contract prices more confidently Our pricing coverage includes
- Mixed xylenes
- Propylene- Toluene
Real-time news serviceBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news including updates on plant capacities output and shutdowns
In-depth analysis of ChinaThe comprehensive studies on olefins and aromatics provide credible data and analysis to support your annual sales and strategy planning by giving you all of the following
- Comprehensive market overviews with detailed regional supply data and company profiles for 2013-2017
- In-depth downstream demand analysis and forecasts - Detailed import analysis between 2012-2014
Enquire about the annual studies
Request a free trial
Supply and demand data We give you an end-to-end perspective across the global petrochemical and refinery supply chain enabling you to grasp the local or regional scenario in a global context Data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2030
Request a free demo
- Benzene- Cumene- Paraxylene ndash Orthoxylene- Styrene
wwwiciscom 57
Bringing you faster more effective ways to improve productivity and decision making
Data ExpressAccess manage and analyse data easier than ever before with our Data Express solutions
bull Excel Plug-in - instantly update your worksheets in Excelbull API ndash stream the latest data directly to your systems
Set up email alerts for the most fluid markets to help you stay on top of market movements and enable you to react faster to price changes and other major developments
Market Alerts
Enquire about our market alerts
Build chart and track your formulas and keep them all in one place using real-time pricing data via the ICIS Dashboard
Formula Builder
Request a trial
wwwiciscom 53wwwiciscom 53
Less turnarounds in H2 2016 but TDP production could decline during blending season
S Korea 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
SK Global Chem Incheon 188 24SK Global Chem Incheon 155 19Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan 600 75
BZ Production loss 118 0 0 0 79 39 0
S Korea 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Lotte Chemical Daesan 240 19Lotte Chemical Ulsan 80 20 4Lotte Chemical Ulsan 40 3 3 5
KPIC Ulsan 160 13Hanwha Total Daesan 420 26
S-Oil Onsan 1 300 26SK Global Chem Ulsan 150 19SK Global Chem Ulsan 100 4
YNCC Yeosu 1 140 4OCI Yeosu 150 13
BZ Production loss 159 5 19 23 84 24 3
Japan 2016 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Matsuyama 96 8Idemitsu Kosan Tokuyama 214 36
Maruzen Chiba 2 198JX Sendai 90 5
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 100 6JFEC Chiba 110 12
BZ Production loss 70 12 2 21 35 0 0
Japan 2015 H2
Producer Location BZ (kta) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cosmo Oil Chiba 80 3Maruzen Chiba 2 198Fuji Oil Chiba 125 23
Mitsubishi Chem Kashima 2 150 25Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145 12 24
JX Mizushima A 320 40JX Negishi 100 4JX Sendai 90 8
Taiyo Oil Kikuma 200 22Tonen General Wakayama 140 24
BZ Production loss 189 49 16 16 59 32 17
Source ICIS industry
wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54
BZ demandBZ supply
bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China
bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ
bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene
bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units
bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher
bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure
bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed
bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand
Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55
Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom
Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom
Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom
Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom
wwwiciscom 56
Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets
Pricing information
- ButadieneC4s- Ethylene
Request your free sample report gtgt
We produce reliable price assessments and analyses covering Asian aromatics and olefins markets including price histories and a 12-month rolling price forecast enabling you to understand price drivers and settle your contract prices more confidently Our pricing coverage includes
- Mixed xylenes
- Propylene- Toluene
Real-time news serviceBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news including updates on plant capacities output and shutdowns
In-depth analysis of ChinaThe comprehensive studies on olefins and aromatics provide credible data and analysis to support your annual sales and strategy planning by giving you all of the following
- Comprehensive market overviews with detailed regional supply data and company profiles for 2013-2017
- In-depth downstream demand analysis and forecasts - Detailed import analysis between 2012-2014
Enquire about the annual studies
Request a free trial
Supply and demand data We give you an end-to-end perspective across the global petrochemical and refinery supply chain enabling you to grasp the local or regional scenario in a global context Data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2030
Request a free demo
- Benzene- Cumene- Paraxylene ndash Orthoxylene- Styrene
wwwiciscom 57
Bringing you faster more effective ways to improve productivity and decision making
Data ExpressAccess manage and analyse data easier than ever before with our Data Express solutions
bull Excel Plug-in - instantly update your worksheets in Excelbull API ndash stream the latest data directly to your systems
Set up email alerts for the most fluid markets to help you stay on top of market movements and enable you to react faster to price changes and other major developments
Market Alerts
Enquire about our market alerts
Build chart and track your formulas and keep them all in one place using real-time pricing data via the ICIS Dashboard
Formula Builder
Request a trial
wwwiciscom 54wwwiciscom 54
BZ demandBZ supply
bull Increase in new downstream capacities to come mostly from China
bull Fewer turnarounds in H2 2016 new capacities scheduled in H2 2016 for PX and BZ
bull Phenol caprolactam plant operating rates to improve with wider spreads against benzene
bull Gasoline blending season to reduce production from TDP units
bull Southeast Asia cracker restarts more co-feedstock for downstream to run higher
bull Japan to increase in net excess but hindered by limitations in export infrastructure
bull Trade flow from Middle East and India to increase in 2016 and 2017 major consumer markets US Europe China eyed
bull Sluggish global macroeconomic conditions to weigh on overall demand
Key factors determining Asiarsquos BZ trade flow balance
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55
Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom
Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom
Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom
Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom
wwwiciscom 56
Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets
Pricing information
- ButadieneC4s- Ethylene
Request your free sample report gtgt
We produce reliable price assessments and analyses covering Asian aromatics and olefins markets including price histories and a 12-month rolling price forecast enabling you to understand price drivers and settle your contract prices more confidently Our pricing coverage includes
- Mixed xylenes
- Propylene- Toluene
Real-time news serviceBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news including updates on plant capacities output and shutdowns
In-depth analysis of ChinaThe comprehensive studies on olefins and aromatics provide credible data and analysis to support your annual sales and strategy planning by giving you all of the following
- Comprehensive market overviews with detailed regional supply data and company profiles for 2013-2017
- In-depth downstream demand analysis and forecasts - Detailed import analysis between 2012-2014
Enquire about the annual studies
Request a free trial
Supply and demand data We give you an end-to-end perspective across the global petrochemical and refinery supply chain enabling you to grasp the local or regional scenario in a global context Data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2030
Request a free demo
- Benzene- Cumene- Paraxylene ndash Orthoxylene- Styrene
wwwiciscom 57
Bringing you faster more effective ways to improve productivity and decision making
Data ExpressAccess manage and analyse data easier than ever before with our Data Express solutions
bull Excel Plug-in - instantly update your worksheets in Excelbull API ndash stream the latest data directly to your systems
Set up email alerts for the most fluid markets to help you stay on top of market movements and enable you to react faster to price changes and other major developments
Market Alerts
Enquire about our market alerts
Build chart and track your formulas and keep them all in one place using real-time pricing data via the ICIS Dashboard
Formula Builder
Request a trial
wwwiciscom 55wwwiciscom 55
Thank youYeow Pei Lin yeowpeiliniciscom
Trixie Yap trixieyapiciscom
Daphne Ho daphnehoiciscom
Michelle Lim michellelimiciscom
wwwiciscom 56
Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets
Pricing information
- ButadieneC4s- Ethylene
Request your free sample report gtgt
We produce reliable price assessments and analyses covering Asian aromatics and olefins markets including price histories and a 12-month rolling price forecast enabling you to understand price drivers and settle your contract prices more confidently Our pricing coverage includes
- Mixed xylenes
- Propylene- Toluene
Real-time news serviceBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news including updates on plant capacities output and shutdowns
In-depth analysis of ChinaThe comprehensive studies on olefins and aromatics provide credible data and analysis to support your annual sales and strategy planning by giving you all of the following
- Comprehensive market overviews with detailed regional supply data and company profiles for 2013-2017
- In-depth downstream demand analysis and forecasts - Detailed import analysis between 2012-2014
Enquire about the annual studies
Request a free trial
Supply and demand data We give you an end-to-end perspective across the global petrochemical and refinery supply chain enabling you to grasp the local or regional scenario in a global context Data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2030
Request a free demo
- Benzene- Cumene- Paraxylene ndash Orthoxylene- Styrene
wwwiciscom 57
Bringing you faster more effective ways to improve productivity and decision making
Data ExpressAccess manage and analyse data easier than ever before with our Data Express solutions
bull Excel Plug-in - instantly update your worksheets in Excelbull API ndash stream the latest data directly to your systems
Set up email alerts for the most fluid markets to help you stay on top of market movements and enable you to react faster to price changes and other major developments
Market Alerts
Enquire about our market alerts
Build chart and track your formulas and keep them all in one place using real-time pricing data via the ICIS Dashboard
Formula Builder
Request a trial
wwwiciscom 56
Stay on top of developments across Asian aromatics and olefins markets
Pricing information
- ButadieneC4s- Ethylene
Request your free sample report gtgt
We produce reliable price assessments and analyses covering Asian aromatics and olefins markets including price histories and a 12-month rolling price forecast enabling you to understand price drivers and settle your contract prices more confidently Our pricing coverage includes
- Mixed xylenes
- Propylene- Toluene
Real-time news serviceBe the first to receive breaking chemicals news including updates on plant capacities output and shutdowns
In-depth analysis of ChinaThe comprehensive studies on olefins and aromatics provide credible data and analysis to support your annual sales and strategy planning by giving you all of the following
- Comprehensive market overviews with detailed regional supply data and company profiles for 2013-2017
- In-depth downstream demand analysis and forecasts - Detailed import analysis between 2012-2014
Enquire about the annual studies
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Supply and demand data We give you an end-to-end perspective across the global petrochemical and refinery supply chain enabling you to grasp the local or regional scenario in a global context Data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2030
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- Benzene- Cumene- Paraxylene ndash Orthoxylene- Styrene
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Bringing you faster more effective ways to improve productivity and decision making
Data ExpressAccess manage and analyse data easier than ever before with our Data Express solutions
bull Excel Plug-in - instantly update your worksheets in Excelbull API ndash stream the latest data directly to your systems
Set up email alerts for the most fluid markets to help you stay on top of market movements and enable you to react faster to price changes and other major developments
Market Alerts
Enquire about our market alerts
Build chart and track your formulas and keep them all in one place using real-time pricing data via the ICIS Dashboard
Formula Builder
Request a trial
wwwiciscom 57
Bringing you faster more effective ways to improve productivity and decision making
Data ExpressAccess manage and analyse data easier than ever before with our Data Express solutions
bull Excel Plug-in - instantly update your worksheets in Excelbull API ndash stream the latest data directly to your systems
Set up email alerts for the most fluid markets to help you stay on top of market movements and enable you to react faster to price changes and other major developments
Market Alerts
Enquire about our market alerts
Build chart and track your formulas and keep them all in one place using real-time pricing data via the ICIS Dashboard
Formula Builder
Request a trial