Upload
john-feland
View
217
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
8/22/2019 Argus Insights Smart Phone Consumer Demand Forecast 20130708
1/11
An Argus Insights White Paper
877-99-ARGUS (877-992-7487)
www.argusinsights.com
Jul 8th, 2013
Peek Report for Smartphones
North American Demand Analysis
iPhone 5 passes Samsung while BlackBerry Z10 delights
TM
http://www.argusinsights.com/http://www.argusinsights.com/mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.argusinsights.com/8/22/2019 Argus Insights Smart Phone Consumer Demand Forecast 20130708
2/11
8/22/2019 Argus Insights Smart Phone Consumer Demand Forecast 20130708
3/11
2011-2013 Argus Insights, Inc. | www.argusinsights.com | [email protected] | May 2013
Table of Contents
Peek Report for Smartphones ......................................................................................................................................................... 1
Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................................................ 2
Defining Delight and Other Metrics (a brief tutorial) ................................................................................................................................ 3
Delight Landscapes..................................................................................................................................................................... 3
Attribute Funnels ....................................................................................................................................................................... 4
Threat Quadrants ....................................................................................................................................................................... 4
Which Smartphone Brand is Delighting the Market the Most? ..................................................................................................................... 5
Which Handsets are Driving Consumer Demand? .................................................................................................................................... 6
How Does OEM Perception Differ By Carrier? ......................................................................................................................................... 7
Visions of Purchase Intent within Social ............................................................................................................................................... 8
What are the most shared and interesting links in Social Media? ....................................................................................... 8
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]://psf/Home/Documents/Argus_Insights/AI%20Whitepaper%20Development/WeeklySmartphoneSnapshots/20130708/ArgusInsightsSmartphoneSnapshot20130708.docx%23_Toc361253334http://psf/Home/Documents/Argus_Insights/AI%20Whitepaper%20Development/WeeklySmartphoneSnapshots/20130708/ArgusInsightsSmartphoneSnapshot20130708.docx%23_Toc361253334http://psf/Home/Documents/Argus_Insights/AI%20Whitepaper%20Development/WeeklySmartphoneSnapshots/20130708/ArgusInsightsSmartphoneSnapshot20130708.docx%23_Toc361253334mailto:[email protected]8/22/2019 Argus Insights Smart Phone Consumer Demand Forecast 20130708
4/11
Innovation Intelligence
2011-2013 Argus Insights, Inc. | www.argusinsights.com | [email protected] | 17 June 2013 2
TM
Executive Summary
The Smartphone market is beginning to look like the Cold War where two superpowers, Apple and Samsung duke it out
while the minor players nip at the heels of the market. This week Apple scored gains on Samsung as buzz and delight
around the iPhone 5 increased to levels not seen in months while everything but the Galaxy S4 suffered declines in the
eyes consumers. Motorola continues their decline in the face of the marketing seemingly waiting for the first Googrola
phones to launch. BlackBerry continues to hemorrhage mindshare as consumers stop buying classic handsets and are
slow to buy the new BB10 handsets. The Z10 continues to be a product loved by a niche market while the Q10 is seen
as a pariah in the minds of customers. Nokias recent handsets are doing better but continue to mimic Apples PC
market share of the 1990s, making a small segment deliriously happy.
Key Takeaways for Retailers:
Galaxy S4 is finally taking hold but unclear whether demand is due to promotions or improvements to theexperience. Promotions may help to clear inventory but balance against iPhone promotions
Classic BlackBerry handsets are finally fading enough from the landscape to clear out inventories. Nokia and BlackBerry have handsets that consumers love but need help expanding beyond the niche.
Key Takeaways for Manufacturers and their Supply Chain While the Stylus and Big Screen work for the Galaxy Note II, every handset should not just blindly become pen
enabled and huge.
Slow growth of the iPhone 5 and the poor launch of the Galaxy SIV show an increase in feature fatigue andprice sensitivity where increases in performance are no longer what is driving adoption.
Failure of Facebook phone signals end of consumer interest in stove piped experiences. Consumers want totailor their handset experience not just drink from a preordained hose.
Key Takeaways for the Investment Community
Blackberrys comeback has faltered even though a mix of prior BB owners and former iPhone/Android ownerscontinue to sing the praise of BB10 on the Z10. Q10 is not doing as well.
Samsung S4 is doing better but unlikely to drive new demand given how stuffed the channel is. Slow down inother Samsung handsets points to a week summer fo sales Nokia continues to fight to move beyond the niche and may pass LG and Motorola for mindshare this summer Motorola mindshare mirrors the decline of BlackBerry. They will have a weak summer ahead of the Google X
Phone Launch
Overall Smartphone market is starting to look a bit saturated for the summer as the overall demand seems to becontracting as consumers are either waiting for the fall or happy with the handset they already own
Any growth in demand, such as recently seen in iPhone 5, will be driven more by retail promotion but withlimited success outside Apple handsets as consumers will prefer a cheaper iPhone over a free anything else
Key Takeaways for Accessories Manufacturers
Demand for Z10 seems to be slowing, along with Galaxy Note II and Galaxy S III. Galaxy S IV is probably not worth investing more resources in supporting, existing inventory should be sufficient
as consumers slowly work through the inventory Samsung stuffed in the channel
iPhone 4 continues to be one of the most discussed handsets, especially given low price and now universalavailability. Market for older cases and pre-Thunderbolt accessories is not completely dead yet
Lumia 928 is a surprising bright spot and may bear supporting in the near term with more accessories
8/22/2019 Argus Insights Smart Phone Consumer Demand Forecast 20130708
5/11
Innovation Intelligence
2011-2013 Argus Insights, Inc. | www.argusinsights.com | [email protected] | 17 June 2013 3
TM
Defining Delight and Other Metrics (a brief tutorial)
In the quest to answer the question of What about the user experience is driving demand? Argus Insights has developed
the Delight Metric based on the star ratings of consumer reviews. This Delight metric, developed initially as part of
research at Stanford University, has been shown to be a proven predictor of consumer adoption, along with the volume of
consumer conversation around a product, the Buzz. The graph belows shows the actual Monthly Tablet Sales for 2011
and 2012, along with the predictive model created using just the Delight and Buzz Metrics. For those interested in
statistics, the model had an Adjusted R Squared of 72.4% and a p-value of 0.0017, meaning that 99.83% of the variation
in Tablet sales can be explained using the Argus Insights model.
Figure 1: Comparing actual Tablet Sales to Argus Insights predictive model using proprietary Delight and Buzz metrics.
Delight Landscapes
Delight is normalized from multiple consumer review sources to be -1 to 1, roughly equivalent to one to five stars. As it ismeasured from the launch of a product, it can be used to track the market falling in and out of love with a given
experience. The graph below shows the Delight and Buzz results for the iPhone 4s and iPhone over time. The y-axis is
the Delight level and the size of
the area of the bubble represents
the Buzz levels. This allows
comparisons between one product
and another or even between
brands, using the same
normalized metrics of Delight and
Buzz.
When looking at the entire
landscape you can rapidly identify
which products and brands are
winning the battle for hearts and
minds. The next question is
always what are they doing
different from the competition?
$-
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
$4,000
$4,500
Jan-1-2011
Feb-1-2011
Mar-1-2011
Apr-1-2011
May-1-2011
Jun-1-2011
Jul-1-2011
Aug-1-2011
Sep-1-2011
Oct-1-2011
Nov-1-2011
Dec-1-2011
Jan-1-2012
Feb-1-2012
Mar-1-2012
Apr-1-2012
May-1-2012
Jun-1-2012
Jul-1-2012
Aug-1-2012
Sep-1-2012
Oct-1-2012
Nov-1-2012
Dec-1-2012
Jan-1-2013
Feb-1-2013
Mar-1-2013
Apr-1-2013
WorldWide
MonthlySales
Millions
Comparing NPD Actual Sales to Argus Insights Predictions
$ NPD Sold Actual
Predicted Using Argus Insights Metrics
Copyright 2013 Argus Insights, Inc.
Figure 2: Buzz and Delight for Recent iPhones. Notice rough start for iPhone 5.
8/22/2019 Argus Insights Smart Phone Consumer Demand Forecast 20130708
6/11
Innovation Intelligence
2011-2013 Argus Insights, Inc. | www.argusinsights.com | [email protected] | 17 June 2013 4
TM
Attribute Funnels
The next visualization helps to unpack what is
driving the user experience by extracting the topics
that are top of mind and their associated sentiment.
These Funnel Diagrams are ranked by the volume
of overall topic mentions with the spread of mentionsshowing how wide spread the positive and negative
mentions of these topics are. The example Funnel
Diagram in the figure below is an example of the
usage scenarios discussed by consumers in the
iPhone 5 reviews. You can see for the iPhone 5,
consumers still discuss using it as a phone the most
where as, discussion of the iPhone as a Laptop
Substitute barely registers in the minds of users.
Funnels like this help to understand what is driving
adoption of a particular product and can offer
powerful comparisons between products and
brands. If you wonder why Blackberry Z10customers are delighted or why Galaxy S4
customers are not, check out their Funnels.
Threat Quadrants
Another visualization used throughout the report is
the Threat Quadrant that illustrates the relative
performance by playing Delight and Buzz against
each other in a two by two matrix that represents
four possible classifications of a product or service:Winner, Loser, Slow Burner and Why Bother. Those
products with high Delight and high Buzz relative to
the market are clear Winners. Those who drive
lots of conversation about the bad experience are
Losers. Products delighting a niche slice of the
market are called Slow Burners and have a chance
to broaden their appeal to a larger segment of the
market. Why Bother are products where the few
people that even care enough to comment publically
say negative things, calling into question why the
company bothered to launch the product or service
in the first place. The Threat Quadrant on the leftdetails the relative perceptions of Smartphone
manufacturers. Since the Threat Quadrant is a
snapshot in time, occasionally we will include trend
lines to show the change over the previous
snapshot. We will use this snapshot to show the relative brand performance by carrier and the handset rankings at each
carrier as well. Notice that for this particular quadrant, the market perception for all brands but BlackBerry.
-5% -3% 0% 3% 5%
Phone
Web Surfing
MusicEmail
Movies
Gaming
Friends
Social Media
Significant Other
Family
Skype/Video Chat/Phone
Books
News/Weather/Sports
Messaging
Work
CoworkerLaptop Substitute
iPhone 5 Usage Scenarios
Figure 3:Attribute Funnel for iPhone 5 Usage Scenarios
Figure 4: Threat Quadrant for Smartphone Brands showing relativeConsumer perception along with month-to-month changes.
Samsung
Apple
HTC
LG
Motorola
Nokia
BlackBerry
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Smartphone Threat Quadrant
Slow Burners Winners
LosersWhy Bother?
8/22/2019 Argus Insights Smart Phone Consumer Demand Forecast 20130708
7/11
Innovation Intelligence
2011-2013 Argus Insights, Inc. | www.argusinsights.com | [email protected] | 17 June 2013 5
TM
Which Smartphone Brand is Delighting the Market the Most?
Argus Insights tracks the consumer response
to products using customer authored reviews
leveraged by shoppers to support their own
purchase decisions. Our metrics based on
these reviews have been proven to be
leading indicators of future consumer
demand. The diagram to the left shows the
latest results for major handset brands in
North America.
While most brands received an uptick in
perceived consumer delight this past week,
Apple also saw an increase in buzz, probably
due to the success of iPhone 5 promotions by
Best Buy and other Retailers. Even though
BlackBerrys quarterly performance did not
meet expectations, consumers still see their
handsets in higher esteem than many brands.
LG continues a downward slide in the face of
the resurgence of HTC with the One handset
and others. Both Nokia and Motorola are
experience significant volatility in how
consumers view handsets from these
manufacturers. Notice that buzz is
decreasing for Moto as the market waits for
the new Google/Moto handsets. Nokia is
another matter. While new handsets are
delighting consumers (Lumia 928 is in the top
10 this week), Nokia is failing to move outside
a niche group of consumers with their
offerings.
The biggest news is a significant drop in the
consumer buzz around Samsung. Typically
this drop in buzz precedes a drop in demand
for a given brand. Given how Samsung
stuffed the channel with Galaxy S IV
handsets, retailers are working hard to churn
through their inventory helped by a global
advertising blitz by Samsung.
As consumer stop buying older BlackBerry
handsets, the overall demand is sliding given
that excitement over the Z10 and Q10 has not
been enough to ignite broad renewed
interest. As we will see later, the Z10 is what
is carrying BlackBerry now as those keyboard
holdouts spent Q1 buying old handsets rather
than waiting for the Q10.
0.67
0
0.5
1
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
A
pple
0.53
0
0.5
1
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
HTC
0.290
0.5
1
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
LG
0.62
0
0.5
1
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Nokia
0.52
0
0.5
1
0 5 10 15 20 25 30BlackBerry
0.61
0
0.5
1
0 5 10 15 20 25 30Samsung
Axis Title
0.50
-0.5
0
0.5
1
0 5 10 15 20 25 30Motorola
8/22/2019 Argus Insights Smart Phone Consumer Demand Forecast 20130708
8/11
Innovation Intelligence
2011-2013 Argus Insights, Inc. | www.argusinsights.com | [email protected] | 17 June 2013 6
TM
Which Handsets are Driving Consumer Demand?
To the left you will find the ten highest rated
phones based on a mix of Delight and Buzz.
Demand across the board is slowing this summer
expect for a few flagship products.The top handset in the minds of consumers is now
the BlackBerry Z10, followed closely by the
Lumia 928 at Verizon. The Galaxy Note II
remains a favorite, portending a potentially grand
market reception for the soon to be released
Galaxy Note III, as long as Samsung learns from
the failed S4 launch. The Galaxy S4 is finally
recovering from the initially slow launch and is
competing effectively with other leading handsets.
This shift and the recent decline in buzz around
the Galaxy S III and the Galaxy Note II, may
signal the demand is finally rising, thanks largely
to huge campaigns deployed by Samsung.
The iPhone 5 has slipped to fifth place but has
recently stolen mindshare from the other
handsets. Only the Galaxy S4 is motivating
consumers to share their experiences as much.
Though the Z10 is the highest rated handset,
there are very few consumers discussing
BlackBerrys flagship handset, signally a
significant slowdown in the demand for BlackBerry
products, especially given the lackluster market
response to the Q10. Simply stated BlackBerry isin deep trouble. Even Nokia is doing better overal
when it comes to demand though both have been
relegated to shrinking niches in the marketplace.
The experience of BB10 is delighting consumers
showing that BlackBerry finally got it right but
maybe too late. If demand continues to fall,
BlackBerry becomes ripe for acquisition. Nokias
continued in ability to even rise above LG in the
marketplace is heavily influenced by their
relationship with Microsoft which means Nokia
handsets will always have a niche with Windows
users but the current state of the market makes it
difficult for Nokia to move beyond that niche.
Noticeably absent are any Motorola RAZR
handsets or the Google Nexus 4. The market is
waiting for any innovation dividends from the
Motorola purchase and their patience is running
out. Even the iPhone 4 continues to outperform
any of the Motorola flagship handsets in the
marketplace.
0.52
0
1
Apple iPhone 4
0.58
0
1
Apple iPhone 4S
0.71
0
1
Apple iPhone 5
0.72
0
1
HTC One
0.50
0
1
LG Optimus G
0.79
0
1
Nokia Lumia 928
0.74
0
1
Samsung Galaxy Note II
0.81
0
1
BlackBerry Z10
0.63
0
1
Samsung Galaxy S III
0.73
0
1
Samsung Galaxy S IV
8/22/2019 Argus Insights Smart Phone Consumer Demand Forecast 20130708
9/11
Innovation Intelligence
2011-2013 Argus Insights, Inc. | www.argusinsights.com | [email protected] | 17 June 2013 7
TM
How Does OEM Perception Differ By Carrier?
The Carrier Brand Quadrants illustrate the brand performance by major US carriers over the past month. The x axis
shows the volume of reviews from that carrier for that brand over the past month. The y-axis illustrates how well that
brand met user expectations based on the review ratings for the past month. The trend arrow shows the change over the
prior month. This allows the visualization of the shift in user expectations by carrier.
Figure 5: Brand Quadrants for AT&T and Verizon Highlighting Which Brands Are Delighting OR Disappointing SmartphoneConsumers. Trend Arrow shows direction of change over prior month.
Interest in the HTC One is dropping at AT&T along with the Galaxy S IV while Apple and LG customers are finding new
reasons to buy. Most striking are the drops in Nokia and Motorola in the minds of AT&T customers. Verizon also saw
Motorola, Nokia, and HTC customers express increased frustration with their experiences while Apple, BlackBerry
customers all were happy with their new phones. The Lumia 928 drove the most buzz at Verizon.
Figure 6 Brand Quadrants for T-Mobile and Sprint Highlighting Which Brands Are Delighting OR Disappointing SmartphoneConsumers. Trend Arrow shows direction of change over prior month.
After the initial burst of Apple interest, Samsung is clearly the winning brand at T-Mobile. Nokia seems to be making a
small comeback at T-Mobile at the expense of LG and HTC. Sprint consumers seem to be coming out of their overall
funk based on delight with Samsung products. Apples lack of dominance across the carriers indicates a growing
saturation in the US market where growth comes from replacement over new iPhone users. The whole market is waiting
for fall to bring innovation to the market after the all hat and no cattle launch of the Galaxy S IV and the teaser of iOS 7.
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
0 50 100 150
AT&T
Samsung
Apple
HTC
LG
Motorola
NokiaRIM
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
0 50 100 150 200
Verizon
Samsung
Apple
HTC
LG
Motorola
NokiaRIM
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
0 500 1000 1500
Sprint
Samsung
Apple
HTC
LG
Motorola
Nokia
RIM-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
0 20 40 60 80
T-Mobile
Samsung
Apple
HTC
LG
Motorola
Nokia
RIM
8/22/2019 Argus Insights Smart Phone Consumer Demand Forecast 20130708
10/11
Innovation Intelligence
2011-2013 Argus Insights, Inc. | www.argusinsights.com | [email protected] | 17 June 2013 8
TM
Visions of Purchase Intent within Social
Argus Insights tracks the smartphone brands in social media. Most of what we see are promotions, advertisements for
cases, gaming related tweets when someone achieves a new level, etc. Much of the twitter traffic regarding
smartphones does not come from humans but from software bots acting on their behalf. One of the sure ways Argus
has found to determine whether the tweet author was silicon based or carbon is by using tweets tagged with a geo-location. Today, while only a small percentage of tweets contain this data, only human users that have opted in to
share their location coordinates publish this data, something a bot cannot yet do. Below is a US map showing the
relative volume and distribution of mobile brand tweets over the past two weeks.
Figure 7: Brand mentions in Twitter by location. Though clustered in population centers, relative distribution does changeby handset brand. Regional affiliations such as more RIM in Canada and more LG mentions in the Midwest.
Notice that there is little dispute that Apple and Samsung receive the most call outs from Twitter users. Not only is this
an indication of the install base but also which brands have the most active engagement in the lives of handset users.
While the clustering of discussion around major metro areas is not a surprise, the detail of which handsets are
mentioned most in these areas is of interest as they tend to be the leading indicators of shifting trends in the mobile
landscape.
What are the most shared and interesting links in Social Media?
Much of the social media around Smartphones are spam campaigns or contests for free phones. Below are a selection
of the links most shared beyond the enticement adds of the continuous spam onslaught in social media.
TechCrunch Commentary on iOS 7 Depature of HTC COO Matthew Costello Top 5 Things To Know About BBM Video, BlackBerry's Video Messaging Service Crackberry Coverage of iOS7 Event
Oddly enough, BlackBerry related mentions topped the share charts during the week.
http://techcrunch.com/2013/06/10/ios-7-steals-mailboxs-gestures-sunrises-layout-bb10s-back-button-weboss-multitasking/http://techcrunch.com/2013/06/10/ios-7-steals-mailboxs-gestures-sunrises-layout-bb10s-back-button-weboss-multitasking/http://thenextweb.com/insider/2013/06/04/htc-coo-matthew-costello-joins-the-growing-number-of-high-level-execs-leaving-the-smartphone-maker/?utm_medium=Spreadus&awesm=tnw.to_r4vn&utm_source=Twitter&utm_campaign=social+mediahttp://thenextweb.com/insider/2013/06/04/htc-coo-matthew-costello-joins-the-growing-number-of-high-level-execs-leaving-the-smartphone-maker/?utm_medium=Spreadus&awesm=tnw.to_r4vn&utm_source=Twitter&utm_campaign=social+mediahttp://blogs.blackberry.com/2013/04/bbm-video-top-5-things-you-should-know/?CPID=SOC_TWI1000099http://blogs.blackberry.com/2013/04/bbm-video-top-5-things-you-should-know/?CPID=SOC_TWI1000099http://crackberry.com/apple-swipes-thing-or-two-blackberryhttp://crackberry.com/apple-swipes-thing-or-two-blackberryhttp://crackberry.com/apple-swipes-thing-or-two-blackberryhttp://blogs.blackberry.com/2013/04/bbm-video-top-5-things-you-should-know/?CPID=SOC_TWI1000099http://thenextweb.com/insider/2013/06/04/htc-coo-matthew-costello-joins-the-growing-number-of-high-level-execs-leaving-the-smartphone-maker/?utm_medium=Spreadus&awesm=tnw.to_r4vn&utm_source=Twitter&utm_campaign=social+mediahttp://techcrunch.com/2013/06/10/ios-7-steals-mailboxs-gestures-sunrises-layout-bb10s-back-button-weboss-multitasking/8/22/2019 Argus Insights Smart Phone Consumer Demand Forecast 20130708
11/11
Innovation Intelligence
2011-2013 Argus Insights, Inc. | www.argusinsights.com | [email protected] | 17 June 2013 9
TM
If You Would Like To Dig Deeper
This is a shameless call to action that details, in brief, the goodies you would be able to access when you sign up for a
full subscription. Remember that the Buddha gave up all worldly possessions to find the path to true peace. We only
ask for a small monthly payment to subscribe to our SaaS platform. You and your team will have ready access to all of
the data used to develop this report as well as the same analytical tools used by Argus Insights on-demand, 24-7.
Finally A Social Analytics Platform That Offers Actionable Insights
The Argus Platform enables companies to use social media and user data to refine and launch effective marketing and
innovation campaigns. By providing comprehensive and actionable consumer information and insights, Argus helps
companies capture mind share.
How It Works
The Argus Platform is able to deliver actionable insights through three simple processes.
Collect: The Argus Platform pulls together consumer conversations in social media sources like Twitter and consumer
review sites. This data is unsolicited, unstructured, unfiltered, and real-time, which offers more thorough and unbiased
insights. Additionally, Argus can integrate proprietary data sources such as surveys, help desk reports, and net
promoter score questionnaires to offer fully comprehensive reporting.
Analyze: The Argus Platform normalizes sentiment data across sources, and then compares consumer conversations
to uncover reasons behind consumer trends. By connecting ongoing social conversations and metrics to campaigns,
Argus is also able to predict near future sales growth (1-2 quarters out).
Report: The Argus Platform reports results in simple and intuitive visualizations with downloadable powerpoint-ready
graphics from a dashboard customizable to the company's strategic questions.
Call today for free access to our demo account so you can evaluate for yourself the advantages Argus Insights
can bring to your enterprise. +1-877-99-ARGUS