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According to statistics derived from the U.S Bureau of the Census, aluminum imports of ingot, scrap and mill products into the U.S. totaled 1.5 billion pounds in July 2017, up 19.4 percent over the July 2016 total of 1.2 billion pounds. Two-thirds of those imports, or about 925 million pounds, entered the U.S. in the form of ingot. After three consecutive months of declining volumes, ingot imports increased 1.8 percent month-over-month in July. Nevertheless, imports of ingot increased 19.0 percent year-over-year in July, and are up 22.7 percent year-to-date over the same period in 2016. While the growth has occurred across the spectrum of ingot importing countries, the largest year-to-date increases have originated from South Africa, India, and Australia.

U.S. imports of semi-fabricated products also increased year-over-year in July, up 22.7 percent. The reported total of 407.4 million pounds fell just shy of the record volume of 422.0 million pounds reached in May of 2017. At 234.9 million pounds, sheet and plate products accounted for nearly 58 percent of July’s total semi-fabricated import volume. Through July, imports of aluminum sheet have increased 20.2 percent, while imports of can stock have increased 63.4 percent. Aluminum foil imports increased 42.5 year-over-year, and are up 20.9 percent year-to-date. At 33.4 percent, China continues to account for the majority of semi-fabricated imports into the U.S. in 2017. The reported 861.3 million pounds through July is an increase of almost 30.5 percent over the 2016 year-to-date total of 660.2 million pounds. Ninety-five percent of Chinese semi-fabricated imports are sheet and plate or foil.

You can learn more about U.S. import trends by subscribing to the Association's North American Foreign Trade Summary Reports. As a compliment to that report, subscribers also have access to the “U.S. Aluminum Imports Dashboard.” As captured in the screenshot below, the Dashboard provides country-level import data and gives users the ability to query and manipulate import data based on their own set of criteria. To subscribe, please contact Hank Sattlethight.

Aluminum Highlights

Week Ending: September 22, 2017An update on industry activity and economic indicators

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This report is based on information reported to the Association by participants, which is aggregated by the Association. While the Association believes that its statistical procedures and methods are reliable, it does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of the data. All data contained herein are subject to revision. For further information, contact Ryan Olsen, V.P. Business Information and Statistics at 1-703-358-2984 or email rolsen@aluminum.org. © The Aluminum Association, Inc. All rights reserved.

The Aluminum Association

2Industry Activity

September 18 – The Association’s “Index of Net New Orders of Aluminum Mill Products” for August increased 12.6 percent over the previous month. Orders for flat roll products (sheet, plate, can stock and foil) were up 10.3 percent, while orders for extruded products increased 24.3 percent and orders for redraw rod rose three-tenths of one percent. Compared to August 2016, orders increased nine-tenths of one percent. On average, orders recorded by domestic producers through the first eight months of 2017 were up 1.7 percent over last year.

September 22, 2017

September 19 – Estimated shipments of Aluminum Drawing Stock, Bare Wire and Rod & Bar by U.S. and Canadian producers totaled 99.0 million pounds during August 2017, off 3.6 percent from the August 2016 total of 102.7 million pounds. Compared to the previous month, shipments increased 8.9 percent over the July 2017 total of 90.9 million pounds. Year-to-date shipments through August 2017 totaled 807.3 million pounds, up 1.6 percent over the 2016 year-to-date total of 794.5 million pounds.

September 19 – shipments of Aluminum Extruded Products (extruded shapes, pipe & tube, and rod & bar) by U.S. and Canadian producers totaled an estimated 477.3 million pounds during August 2017, a rise of 3.3 percent over the August 2016 total of 462.1 million pounds. Compared to the previous month, shipments increased 10.4 percent over the July 2017 total of 432.5 million pounds. Year-to-date shipments through August 2017 totaled 3,605.9 million pounds, up 1.8 percent over the 2016 year-to-date total of 3,541.4 million pounds.

The Aluminum Association

3Economic Activity

September 22, 2017

September 19 – The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development jointly announced that privately-owned housing starts in August 2017 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,180,000 units, off eight-tenths of one percent from the revised July 2017 rate of 1,190,000. Compared to a year ago, housing starts increased 1.4 percent from the August 2016 rate of 1,164,000. Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,300,000. This was 5.7 percent above the revised July rate of 1,230,000, and 8.3 percent above the August 2016 estimate of 1,200,000. Year-to-date, privately-owned housing starts and authorized permits were up an estimated 2.7 percent and up 6.3 percent compared to 2016, respectively.

September 18 – Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes fell three points in September to a level of 64 on the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). All three HMI components posted losses in September. The components gauging current sales conditions fell four points to 70 while the index charting sales expectations in the next six months dropped four points to 74. Meanwhile, the component measuring buyer traffic slipped a single point to 47.

The Aluminum Association

4Global Trends

September 22, 2017

September 20 – According to data collected by the International Aluminium Institute and the Aluminum Association, the global primary aluminum production rate totaled an estimated 58.3 million tonnes in August 2017, a decrease of 1.1 percent from the July 2017 rate, and a decline of 1.5 percent from the August 2016 rate of 59.2 million tonnes. Actual production in August totaled an estimated 4.95 million tonnes, down 1.1 percent month-over-month. The annual production rate in North America (U.S. and Canada) increased four-tenths of one percent m/m, and was up two-tenths of one percent y/y. In China, the annual rate of production as reported declined to 31.1 million tonnes, off 1.7 percent m/m, and down 3.0 percent y/y. In the Rest Of the World, the annual production rate in August 2017 was down four-tenths of one percent m/m, but was up two-tenths of one percent y/y.

The Aluminum Association

5Energy

September 22 – According to this week's release by the Federal Reserve Board, the Nominal Broad Dollar Index closed the week at 118.06 on Friday, an increase of four-tenths of one percent from the previous week's close of 117.59. The result was the second consecutive weekly increase, and the first time the Index has increased in consecutive weeks since early April. Nevertheless, the Index remained below it's 30-day moving average for the 96th straight day. Over the last six months, the index is down 5.1 percent, while it's off 3.0 percent over the last 12 months.

The nominal broad dollar index is a weighted average of the foreign exchange values of the U.S. dollar against the currencies of a broad group of major U.S. trading partners.

September 22 – On the NYMEX, the near-month WTI crude oil futures (Cushing, OK WTI Future Contract 1) closed the week at $50.66/bbl on Friday, September 22, up $0.77 (+1.5%) from last week's close of $49.89/bbl. Oil prices increased for the third consecutive week as major oil producers at an OPEC-led committee meeting boasted record compliance with their production-cut agreement.However, no decision to extend the agreement was reached. Active U.S. oil-drilling rigs declined for the third consecutive week, down five to 744. Compared to last year, oil rigs have increased by 326. Brent Crude on London's ICE Futures exchange closed the week up at $56.86/bbl (+2.2%). Friday's spread between the two was $6.20/bbl, up from last week's spread of $5.73/bbl.

September 21 – The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that natural gas spot prices rose at most locations east of the Rockies this report week (Wednesday, September 13 to Wednesday, September 20). The Henry Hub spot price rose from $2.99 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last Wednesday to $3.14/MMBtu.

At the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex), the October 2017 contract price rose 4¢ from $3.058/MMBtu last Wednesday to $3.094/MMBtu.

U.S. Dollar

September 22, 2017

The Aluminum Association

6The Aluminum Association, founded in 1933, works globally to aggressively promote aluminum as the most sustainable and recyclable automotive, packaging and construction material in today’s market. The Association represents North America and foreign-based primary producers of aluminum, aluminum recyclers, producers of semi-fabricated products and foundries as well as suppliers to the industry or distributors or jobbers.

The Aluminum Association's statistical programs provide industry information on primary aluminum production, new orders of mill products, industry shipments, end use market estimates, inventories, recycling and foreign trade on a monthly, quarterly and annual basis. Special surveys provide data on specific subjects such as primary capacity, flat roll capacity, inventories and castings shipments. Custom reports are available on a for-fee basis. Web briefings are also available upon request.

Industry OverviewAluminum Statistical Review (Annual Fact Book)Aluminum Highlights (Weekly)Aluminum Situation (Monthly)Summary of Producer Shipments and Inventories (Monthly)

Primary AluminumPrimary Aluminum Production – U.S. and Canada (Monthly)Primary Installed Capacity (Annual)Shipments of Primary Aluminum by Form (Quarterly)

Mill ProductsIndex of Net New Order Receipts for Aluminum Mill Products (Monthly)Can Stock Shipments (Monthly)Electrical Conductor Shipments (Monthly)Extruded Products Shipments and Press Utilization (Monthly)Flat Roll Capacity (Annual)Foil Shipments (Monthly)Forging and Impacts Shipments (Monthly)Rod, Bar, and Wire Shipments (Monthly)Sheet and Plate Shipments (Monthly)

End UseExtrusion Shipments by End Use (Quarterly)Fin Stock Shipments by End Use (Quarterly)Foil Shipments by End Use (Monthly)Sheet and Plate Shipments by End Use (Quarterly)

CastingsU.S. Foundry Castings Shipments (Quarterly)Canada Foundry Castings Shipments (Annual)

RecyclingNew Can Stock (Class) Scrap Receipts (Monthly)Used Beverage Can Reclamation (Annual)

Foreign Trade (based on government customs data)Summary of U.S., Canada and Mexico Imports and Exports (by Commodity), MonthlyForeign Trade Online Database - U.S., Canada and Mexico Exports & Imports of Aluminum (By Commodity, by Country)

For a complete list of statistical publications and reports visit our bookstore.

September 22, 2017