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8/8/2019 APT FINAL_2
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DOANH CHNH LCH
GI APT
Nhm TA 27 :V Nguyn Hun
Nguyn Mnh HotLng K TL Minh ThiNguyn Thi Ngn
Nguyn o Xun.
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APT
1. S LC V APT
2. TM HIU CC M HNH NHN T
3. L THUYT KINH DOANH CHNH LCH GI
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SLC V APT
L thuyt kinh doanh chnh lch gi, Arbitrage Pricing
Theory APT, do Stephen Ross a ra vo nhng nm
1970 ca th k 20.Ni dung chnh ca APT l ni v mi quan h gia
ri ro v t sut sinh li (TSSL) trong u t.
L thuyt APT cho rng TSSL ca CK l 1 hm s
tuyn tnh ca tp hp cc yu t to nn ri ro cho
TSSL ca CK.
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CAPM APT
u im D dng p dng cho cc nhu t khc nhau vi cc tiuch khc nhau.
Quan h nn tng kinh t cacc nhn t.nh hng cc nhn t ln thayi khng mong i ca ti sn
l r rng.i hi tnh chnh xc ca ccnhn t.nh hng r rng ca ccnhn t i vi cc nhn t phih thng.
Nhcim
Cc vn v :nh gi TSSL tng lai.nh gi li sut phi ri ro.c lng B khng n nh.Khng hon ton b qua ccnhn t phi h thng.
C qu nhiu nhn t nn tnnhiu cng sc trong vic tmkim cc bin v xy dng mhnh.
So snh 2 m hnh
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TM HIU CC M HNHNHN T
2. ng dng tnh COV v VAR
1. M hnh 1 nhn t v m hnh a nhn t
3. Xy dng danh mc nhn t thun nht
4. Danh mc u t m phng v TSSL ca danh mc
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M HNH 1 NHN T VA NHN T
M hnh 1 nhn t
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M hnh a nhn t
M HNH 1 NHN T V ANHN T (tt)
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Phng trnh nhn t ca DM gm n CK c t trng xi
M HNH 1 NHN T V ANHN T (tt)
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Cc nhn t
M HNH 1 NHN T V ANHN T
Cc h s ca cc nhn t l mc trung bnh
theo t trng cc ca CK trong danh mc
V d: cho ca CK A v B i vi lm pht l 2v 3, t trng l 50% th lm pht ca danh mc
l = 0,5x2 + 0,5x3 = 2,5
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NG DNG TNH COV, VAR
Tnh Cov ca m hnh 1 nhn t
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NG DNG TNH COV, VAR
Tnh Cov ca m hnh 1 nhn t
Cov = 0,0006
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Gi s c k nhn t khng tng quan nhau v TSSLca ck i v ck j c m t bi m hnh sau
NG DNG T NH COV, VAR(tt)
Tnh Cov ca m hnh a nhn t
Cov
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Tnh Var
NG DNG T NH COV, VAR(tt)
M hnh 1 nhn t
M hnh a nhn t
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X Y DNG DANH MCNHN T THUN NHT
Danh mc nhn t thun nht l danh mc trong
i vi 1 nhn t bng 1 v vi cc nhn t cn li = 0
Thit lp 2 danh mc nhn t thun nht vi cc
nhn t F1, F2 t 3 chng khon trn
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T trng cho danh mc th I (1 =1, 2= 0)
X Y DNG DANH MCNHN T THUN NHT (tt)
Gii h phng trnh ta c
Ta c
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X Y DNG DANH MCNHN T THUN NHT (tt)
TSSL mong i ca DM th I
Phng trnh nhn t I
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X Y DNG DANH MCNHN T THUN NHT (tt)
Gii h phng trnh ta c
Ta c
T trng cho danh mc th II (1 = 0, 2 = 1)
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X Y DNG DANH MCNHN T THUN NHT (tt)
TSSL mong i ca DM th II
Phng trnh nhn t I
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DANH MC U T MPHNG
Gi s DMDT m phng c n CK, mi CK c pt sau:
Ta cVi xi l t
trng ca CKI trong danh
mc
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Nu TSSL ca DMDT m phng ln
hn TSSL ca DMDT c m phng,ta s mua DMDT m phng v bn
DMDT c m phng
DANH MC U T MPHNG
Gii h phng trnh tm cc xi ta s thit lp c
DMDT m phng
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V d: cho m hnh 2 nhn t, hy kt hp 1 CK phi
ri ro c TSSL 5% vi 2 DMDT thun nht v d
trn m phng 1 CK c phng trnh nhn t l:
DANH MC U T MPHNG (tt)
Nhc li 2DM thun
nht trn
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DANH MC U T MPHNG (tt)
x1= 2, x2 = - 0,6
Tng t trng 2 chng khon ny l 1,4, khi kt hp
CK phi ri ro vo th t trng CK phi ri ro l 0,4
2 = x1 x 1 + x2 x 0
- 0,6 = x1 x 0 + x2 x 1
p dng cng thc gii thiu ta c
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DANH MC U T MPHNG (tt)
TSSL mong i ca DMDT m phng bng
7,6% < 8% TSSL mong i ca CK
Thu li 0,4% chnh lch gi
TSSL mong i ca DMT m phng
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Tnh TSSL ca DMDT m phng 1 cch tng qut
DANH MC U T MPHNG (tt)
Hay
Tng qut
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L THUYT KINH DOANHCHNH LCH GI
Mi quan h gia li nhun vri ro c bit n l
L thuyt kinh doanh chnh lch gi
Nu 2 s u t m phng hon ton ging nhau v
c TSSL mong i khc nhau th NT c th thu 1
khong li phi ri ro bng cch mua s u t cTSSL cao v bn khng s u t c TSSL thp
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Cc gi nh ca APT
L THUYT KINH DOANH
CHNH LCH GI (tt)
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Phng trnh k nhn t ca ti sn i
L THUYT KINH DOANH
CHNH LCH GI (tt)
C
Trng hp
khng c APT
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Phng php xc nh s tn ti ca APT
L THUYT KINH DOANH
CHNH LCH GI (tt)
Xc nh s tn ti ca APT bng cch so snh cp tm c khi kt hp CK A, B vi ti sn phi ri ro
v cp khi kt hp CK B, C vi ti sn phi ri ro
V d
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Ta c cng thc tnh TSSL nh sau
L THUYT KINH DOANH
CHNH LCH GI (tt)
Kt hp chng khon A, B v ti sn phi ri ro
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Kt hp chng khon B, C v ti sn phi ri ro
L THUYT KINH DOANH
CHNH LCH GI (tt)
Tn ti APT do tm c 2 cp khc nhau cho
1 phng trnh TSSL tn ti APT
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CAPM
SO SNH CAPM V APT
APT
Tm v t trng ti u Tm chnh lch giSut sinh li theo phn
phi chun
Sut sinh li l tp hp
tuyn tnh cc nhn t
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NHNG HN CH CA APT
Cn c lng ln chng khon
Cha tnh n thu v ph giao dch
Vic tnh ton ca cc nhn t kh phc tp
Chung
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NHNG HN CH CA APT
Th trng cn km pht trin kh khn trongvic tnh
NT t quan tm n trong phn tch chng khon
TTCK cha pht trin, cha hp dn NT
Th trng cha hon ho, thng tin thiu minh bch
Vit Nam
Cha c bn khng
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NG DNG
Mi quan h gia t sut sinh liVN-Index v CPI
Mi quan h gia t sut sinh liVN-Index v ch s gi vng
Mi quan h gia t sut sinh li
VN-Index v ch s USD
Tc ng tng hp cc nhn tln VN- index
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Ngun: cophieu68.com
TIME CPI VNG USD VNINDEX
T1-2008 0.0238 0.0507 (0.0026) (0.1122)
T2 0.0356 0.0591 (0.0012) (0.1145)
T3 0.0299 0.0645 (0.0151) (0.1990)
..
T10-2010 0.0105 0.0787 0.0060 (0.0035)
NG DNG
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NG DNG
p-value (CPI) = 8.81%
c s tng quan gia
CPI v TSSL VNindex.
R2 = 8.816% 8.816%
s thay i trong TSSL
ca VN- index c
Gii thch bi CPI.
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NG DNG
p-value =46.61%
Vng khng nh
hng n TSSL
VNindex.
R2 = 1.6723%
1.6723% s thay
i trong TSSL cVN- index c
gii thch bi vng
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p-value = 31.25% k c s tng
quan gia USD
vi TSSL ca
VNindex.
R2 = 3.1856%
3.1856% s thayi trong TSSL
VN- index c
gii thch = USD
NG DNG
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TSSL-VN-Index = 0.028405 3.16*CPI -0.183*CSGV -1.535*CSUSD
NG DNG
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Thank forlistening
Thank forlistening
Thank forlistening