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Apresentação Demografia Gregory de Paepe
Citation preview
Presentation in Lisbon
Promoting
Youth Employment
IMVF December 13, 2012
Outline
I. Context: Africa’s Economic Outlook
II. Stylized facts: What is the employment situation of young Africans?
III. Looking forward: What can be done to promote youth employment?
2
I. Africa’s Economic Outlook
3
4
Africa’s Growth performance 2001-2013
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
An
nu
al R
eal G
DP
Gro
wth
(%
)
Africa Sub-Saharan Africa North Africa
5
Ethiopia 7.3%
Libya 14.8%
Niger 8.6%
Mozambique 7.7%
Zambia 7.1%
Angola 7.7%
Côte d’Ivoire 7.1%
Ghana 8%
Liberia 8% Rwanda
7.3%
10 Fast-growing economies in
2012/13
External Internal
Macroeconomic policies and
management
Domestic consumer demand
Growth sectors: Mining,
agriculture, services,
construction and
manufacturing
Prices of
agricultural export
Commodity prices, export
volumes
Drivers of Growth
External financial flows
(ODA, FDI, Remittances)
6
Africa’s young population is growing and jobs are not keeping up
7
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1.000
0
50
100
150
200
250 1
99
1
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
GD
P, B
illio
n (
20
05
PP
P in
t. $
)
You
ng
(15
-24
) P
eo
ple
, Mill
ion
Youth Population Youth Employment GDP (right axis)
II. The employment situation of young Africans
Unemployment is only one of many bad labour market situations for young people
Part-time
Unemployed
Discouraged
Inactive
Student
34%
48%
11%
10% 9%
10%
5%
8%
10%
5% 10%
3% 5% 1%
9% 5%
7% 10%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
LIC MIC
Youth time use by Country Income Group (2010)
Employee
Self-employed
Unpaid workers
Part-time
Underemployed
Unemployed
Discouraged
Out of LF
Student
Source: Authors' calculations based on Gallup World Poll (2010)
34%
Stu
dent
s 25
% N
EET
41%
Wor
king
48
%
24
%
28
%
36%
47%
57% 52%
49%
34%
52% 50%
34%
21%
35% 35% 37%
43% 43%
27%
37%
26%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Food insecurity by employment status
LICs MICs Source: Authors' calculations based on Gallup World Poll (2010)
Many youth in work are poor
III. What can be done to promote youth employment?
11
89%
47% 46% 40%
16%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Aggregate labour demand
Skills mismatches
Labour market information
Attitudes of employers and
youth
Labour market regulation.
Demand for labour is the biggest challenge
12
Source: AEO Country Survey; 37 countries
Recommendations for Job Creation • Improve access to finance
– Invest in good screening and targeting
– Combine funding with training and mentoring
• Infrastructure
• Social Protection – For informal entrepreneurs and workers
– Take the burden of severance pay
• Provide incentives to hire and train young people. But be careful to avoid displacement
13
Recommendations for Education
• Link education systems to employment needs
• A stronger focus on relevant skills is of particular importance for education and training in rural areas.
• Provide opportunities to young people that have obtained skills in informal training to certify them.
14
The way forward
The youth employment challenge in Africa is
primarily one of insufficient demand for labour.
1. Demand for labour is the biggest problem
promote job creation in the private sector: help firms
grow and connect to markets
2. Make education more comprehensive and link it
better to the need for skills in the market
3. The rural and informal sectors are opportunities.
Build on them!