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Apples –International market, tradeand outlook
Apples – International market, trade and outlookApples – International market, trade and outlook
and outlookPrognosfruit - Congress 2012Helwig Schwartau, AMI
1. Outlook for the market in autumn
2. Trade in Europe, outlook for exports
3. Club varieties apples
Apples – International market, trade and outlookApples – International market, trade and outlook
3. Club varieties apples
4. Overseas apples, shifting of trade
EU-27: apple stocks 1st. July
122
41
39
42
44
50200
250
300
350
F
UK
SP/P
PL
(1.000 t)� 50.000 t more than last
years, a good positionfor the next season, particular für bicolour
� Jonagold/Jonagored2012: 30.000 t2011: 34.000 t2010: 68.000 t
Apples – International market, trade and outlookApples – International market, trade and outlook
60 95
93 112
44
0
50
100
150
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
PL
IT
AT
BEL
GER
2011: 34.000 t2010: 68.000 t
� Golden Delicious2012: 179.000 t2011: 135.000 t2010: 148.000 t
� Season starts normal, 7-10 days later thanlast year
EU Imports: New Zealand bicolour apples(Braeburn/Pink L./Cripps/Jazz)
Total import2012 = 77.600 t2011 = 88.400 t 2010 = 80.972 t
Apples – International market, trade and outlookApples – International market, trade and outlook
17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37
2011
2012
2010
EU-27: First time, more apples in the East, less in the West
3,361,86 3,19 3,85
6,0
8,0
10,0
12,0
NMS
� 2012 = One of the lowestproduction ofthe last years, but…
� Distribution of regions not comparable with 2007 and 2010
� EU-15 with very small
(1.000 t)
Apples – International market, trade and outlookApples – International market, trade and outlook
2,14 2,26 1,88 1,84
4,86 4,974,58 4,05
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
Ø '07-'11 2007 2010 2012
EU-15 South
EU-15 North
� EU-15 with very smallproduction, particular in the South
� NMS expected 3,87 Mio t, only more ‘08 (4,5 Mio. t)
� Relaxed autumn, changeing trading flow, less table apples than2007 and 2010
EU-27: Apple harvest for freshmarket
1,20
2,08 1,73
1,45
1,98
1,93
4
5
6
7
8In Mio t
� The lowest volumefor freshmarket of thelast years???
� More second qualitiesfor storage?
� Volume with hail damage?
� Effect of price level for
Apples – International market, trade and outlookApples – International market, trade and outlook
5,47 5,31 5,52 5,16 5,394,52
0
1
2
3
4
07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13
Volume NMS Volume EU-15
� Effect of price level forprocessing
Interesting discussion for theevening. Don‘t forget demand(economic crisis) and importsfrom overseas.
EU-27: Apple harvest for processing
15
20
25
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
4 5001.000 t� AJC stocks cleared!
Price on a relativ high level
� In Western Europe lesscrop the smallest cropof the last years
� German - outside market
EUR/100kg
?
Apples – International market, trade and outlookApples – International market, trade and outlook
0
5
10
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
06/07 09/10 12/13
Volume NMSVolume EU-15Ø German/Italy processing
� German - outside marketproduction 100.000 tlower than last year
� Poland bigger crop, more hail, shapprocessingincreasing 10% than2011?
?
Processing applesautumn ’11 ( EUR 100kg)Europe 14/15,-(Germany 12,75/14,-)China 16/17,-
China AJC to expensive ?
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 500
2 000
2 500
AJC exportsAJC price
1.000 t USD/t fob
Apples – International market, trade and outlookApples – International market, trade and outlook
Exchange rate USD/Euro (-10% than autumn 2011)Currently China AJC frankoEU Cust.1,7/1,75 EUR/kgChina Export Jan-April2012 = 195.900 t (NL 1.540 t)2011 = 258.100 t (NL 26.300 t)
0
200
400
600
2002 2005 2008 20110
500
1 000
2. Trade in Europe, outlook for exports
Apples – International market, trade and outlookApples – International market, trade and outlook
outlook for exports
Western Europe : Production bicolour apples
� Braeburn: Relaxed seasonFrance/Italy = 147.000 t (-28%)
� Gala: -13% than 2011Hold up market share in North Africa/ Middle East?
� Jonagold: All countries 592
406
316382
2981500
2000
2500
Elstar
1.000 t
GER/NL/BEL/IT/F/AT
Apples – International market, trade and outlookApples – International market, trade and outlook
� Jonagold: All countrieswith lower crop.Concentrated salesin Western Europe, no stress till February
� Elstar: Netherland -30% than last year. Less exports to Germany.
314 265 294 238
686632 686
598
592459
513
393
298
0
500
1000
2009 2010 2011 2012
Jonagold-Groupe
Gala
Braeburn
France: Apple exports in 2011/12(August – April), comparison to 2010/11
Russia26.400 t
(31.400 t)
Russia26.400 t
(31.400 t)
Germany49.500 t
(50.200 t)
Germany49.500 t
(50.200 t)
UK108.000 t
(126.000 t)
UK108.000 t
(126.000 t)
Apples – International market, trade and outlookApples – International market, trade and outlookHelwig Schwartau: Apples - Review of 2010/11 season
North Africa
80.400 t (62.800 t)
North Africa
80.400 t (62.800 t)
MiddleEast
61.500 t (40.700 t)
MiddleEast
61.500 t (40.700 t)
Source: Eurostat
Spain92.900 t
(63.200 t)
Spain92.900 t
(63.200 t)
Asia20.500 t
(19.700 t)
Asia20.500 t
(19.700 t)
Italy: Apple exports in 2011/12(August – April), comparison to 2010/11
Russia35.200 t
(44.300 t)
Russia35.200 t
(44.300 t)
South Eastern South
Eastern
EU-15423.000 t
(461.000 t)
EU-15423.000 t
(461.000 t)
Apples – International market, trade and outlookApples – International market, trade and outlookHelwig Schwartau: Apples - Review of 2010/11 season
Eastern Europe72.100 t
(91.500 t)
Eastern Europe72.100 t
(91.500 t)
North Africa
102.914 t (53.900 t)
North Africa
102.914 t (53.900 t)
Source: Eurostat
MiddleEast
38.000 t (30.300 t)
MiddleEast
38.000 t (30.300 t)
EU apple exports to North Africaand Middle East (Aug. till April)
80
100
120
140
160
Melill/Egypt/Maroc
Middle East
Libya
Algeria
1.000 tons
Apples – International market, trade and outlookApples – International market, trade and outlook
0
20
40
60
80
'07/08 '09/10 11/12 '07/08 '09/10 11/12 '07/08 '09/10 11/12
Algeria
France
Italy
Spain
Poland: Apple exports (Aug.- April)In 1.000 t 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12
Total 714 611 348 655
EU-27 Extra 502 503 310 590
EU-27 Intra 212 108 38 65
Russia 230 231 196 356
Ukraine 225 220 63 92
Kazakhstan 7 19 13 22
Good season 2011/12
Strong investment(75% subvention)
Apples – International market, trade and outlookApples – International market, trade and outlook
Kazakhstan 7 19 13 22
Belarus 32 27 34 116
Baltic 106 29 18 18
S. East Europ 61 41 8 26
EU-15 46 38 12 21
UK 3 5 2 4
Scand (incl. NOR) 17 16 7 9
Germany 16 14 4 10
Bigger apple harvestin the future(above 3 Mio. t ?)
Planting trends (20% Idared) targeted to theeast markets
5060708090
100In 1.000 tons
Russia: apples imports 2011/12 by month(Competition Poland/ GUS/ EU15)
Apples – International market, trade and outlookApples – International market, trade and outlook
01020304050
A S O N D J F M A M
GUS Poland EU15 EU15 (2010/11)Source GTA
Russia: Less apple importsfrom Western Europe (August - May)
40
60
80In 1.000 tons Total imports:
2011/12 = 1.070.000 t2010/11= 995.000 t2009/10 = 980.000 t
Apples – International market, trade and outlookApples – International market, trade and outlook
0
20
40
IT F BE GER NL Argent. Chile
2009/10 2010/11 2011/12
-25%-21%
-47%-13%
-55%-50% -12%
Source: GTA
3. Club varieties apples
Apples – International market, trade and outlookApples – International market, trade and outlook
1316
723
206
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500GER
BEL
NL
IT
Planting trends importantClub varieties (2011-12)
1.000 trees
Crop Junami 2012 = 17.000 tvs. ‘11 (+/-0%)
Crop Jazz
Crop Kanzi 2012 = 36.000 tvs. ‘11 (+42%)
Apples – International market, trade and outlookApples – International market, trade and outlook
1654
267 224 400650
392 375
433
174
1379
556 320
477
267144420
1050
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500 IT
UK
F
other
Crop Jazz 2012 = 22.000 tvs. ‘11 (+8%)
Crop Kiku2012 = 17.000 tvs. ‘11 (+6%)
20,0
25,0
30,0
35,0
Important Club varieties -Sales (%) in Europe
Apples – International market, trade and outlookApples – International market, trade and outlook
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
GER F IT Skan UK NL BEL SP RUS
Gesamt Pink Lady Kanzi Jazz
0,3
3,1
3,0
3,9
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
Cameo, Kanzi, Rubens
Pink Lady
Club varieties – Consumption in Germany(September - August in %, estimate 2011-12)
Pink Lady EU crop2012 = 120.000 t
Apples – International market, trade and outlookApples – International market, trade and outlook
0,5
0,6
0,7
0,9
1,3
4,5
4,0
4,7
5,5
6,2
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12© AMI 2012,Source AMI-Analyse based of GfK-Panel
2012 = 120.000 t 2011 = 147.000 t2010 = 128.000 t
1,60
1,80
2,00EUR/kg
Quelle : GfK
Germany: Consumption price1kg-Foodtainer
Apples – International market, trade and outlookApples – International market, trade and outlook
1,00
1,20
1,40
05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12
Pink Lady Braeburn Gala Kanzi/Rubens/Cameo
4. Overseas apples,shifting of trade
Apples – International market, trade and outlookApples – International market, trade and outlook
shifting of trade
431512 529
Europe
73
114
74
Russia
210206
173
Asia
162
132
177
North Am.
176 191180169 192
156
1 240 000 1 360 0001 300 000
Worldwide
Apples – International market, trade and outlookApples – International market, trade and outlook
Import markets for apples in the world, trading South Hemisphere, till July(1.000 tons) 2012 (red graphic column), 2011 and 2010
AsiaAfrica/Mid.East
156
Lat. America
Worldwide
Destination 2008 2009 2010 2011 2011 main market
Total exports 700 808 780 789 Asia 329 (‘08 = 172)
Asia East 88 95 110 131 Taiw. 68/ Hongk. 57
Asia South East 66 91 102 121 Indonesia 60
Asia South 18 48 38 77 India 72
Middle East 45 81 64 62 VAE 28/ Saudi A. 20
USA: apples exports/ imports (1.000 t)
Apples – International market, trade and outlookApples – International market, trade and outlook
Middle East 45 81 64 62 VAE 28/ Saudi A. 20
South America 14 19 12 29
North./Latin Am. 341 347 340 283 Mexico 168
EU 40 32 24 11
Total imports 154 151 188 138
Chile 92 87 122 86
New Zealand 32 44 41 32
New Zealand: Apple export to Asia increase, till July (1.000 t)
1.000 t 2007 2009 2011 2012
Asia 38 51 69 79
EU cont. 108 109 99 73
UK 54 41 38 3912
422
50
60
70
80Club Var.
Fuji
2012 - Export by varieties
*21
Apples – International market, trade and outlookApples – International market, trade and outlook
America 37 38 28 30
M. East 5 10 9 13
Total 246 254 256 246
30 18
6
39
18
7
710
12
7
87
0
10
20
30
40
50
Asia EU (Con.)
UK USA M.East
Gala
Braeburn
Constant worldwide export volume, but….
�Strong focus to Asia�EU – only UK stable, but…�Middle East more interesting
*31*20
*34
*41
(* Last year)
5449 19
17
3943
36
13
150
200
250
Chile: Worldwide apple export (1.000 t)
Europe/Russia
North A.
AsiaM. East
Global export2012 = 606.000 t2011 = 682.000 t 2010 = 661.000 t 2009 = 573.000 t
Apples – International market, trade and outlookApples – International market, trade and outlook
6580
5470
57 58
19 20 17
54 6350
7588 82
2018
11
13 15
2827
12
2328
26
5449
41 23
12 18
1112
10
1717
28 2825
13
12
23
0
50
100
'10 '11 '12 .. '10 '11 '12 .. '10 '11 '12 .. '10 '11 '12 .. '10 '11 '12
Other Cripps Braeburn Fuji Granny Red Del Gala
AsiaM. East
Latin A.
Prospect for apple season 2012/13
� Stocks (EU/overseas) better cleared than usual
� Different apple forecast in the European countries
� West – Relaxed autumn
� East – Poland with a good apple harvest 2012
Apples – International market, trade and outlookApples – International market, trade and outlook
� East – Poland with a good apple harvest 2012
� The lowest volume of table apples for the last years
� Stable price for processing, AJC stocks cleared
� Apple exports from overseas, slightly more than 2012
Season 2012/13 : Positive outlook for countries with a halfway normal crop
Thanks a lot for your attention.
HELWIG SCHWARTAU, AMI, BÜRO HAMBURG
Apples – International market, trade and outlookApples – International market, trade and outlook
+49 (0)40-6505595-0
Western Europe: Organic apples forecast 2012
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000In tons
Apple crop:2012 = 95.740 t2011 =123.677 t2010 = 93.369 t2009 = 94.673 t2008 = 82.919 t
Apples – International market, trade and outlookApples – International market, trade and outlook
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
S. Tyrol GER AT NL F BEL
2009 2010 2011 2012
2008 = 82.919 t
-15%
-42%-44%
-43%
-20%
-25%
Source: EBF/AMI
Western Europe: Organic apples forecast 2012
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000In tons
Apples – International market, trade and outlookApples – International market, trade and outlook
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
Golden Gala Topaz Braeburn Elstar Jonagold
2009 2010 2011 2012
-18%
-35%-14%-29%-15%
-27%
Source: EBF/AMI