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Appendix C
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PRODUCTION REQUIREMENTSStandard lot size (in units) 1,000 Direct labor employees 2
PROCESS TIME Average
Cycle time (in seconds) 80 20 60 110
Start LotLoad materials into hopper 1.00 0.050 0.900 1.100Enter machine parameters 0.15 0.005 0.140 0.160Prepare documentation 0.15 0.015 0.120 0.180Setup machine 0.50 0.025 0.350 0.600Subtotal start lot 1.80 0.095 1.510 2.040
End LotReset machine parameters 0.08 0.008 0.070 0.090Count units 0.75 0.150 0.500 1.000Verify count 0.50 0.050 0.450 0.550Document output produced 0.25 0.025 0.230 0.270Clean area 0.17 0.025 0.140 0.200Subtotal end lot 1.75 0.258 1.390 2.110
Total setup time* 3.55 0.353 2.900 4.150
Machine TimeRun production 22.22
Total Processing Time 25.77
Net available time in hours 120
Number of lots per week 5.00
Standard Deviation
Minimum Value
Maximum Value
*Total setup time = SStart Lot Activities + S End Lot Activities
Materials Each 500.00 $ 1.00 $ 500
Setup labor Hours 7.10 $ 15.00 107 Labor Hours 44.44 $ 15.00 667 Subtotal labor 774
Setup machine Hours 3.55 $ 50.00 178 Overhead Hours 22.22 $ 50.00 1,111 Total overhead costs 1,289 Total costs per lot (1) $ 2,563
Cost per unit (2) $ 2.56
Sales price $ 3.25 Gross Margin 27%
(1) Sum of labor, materials and overhead costs(2) Total costs ÷ standard lot size
Unit of Measure
Quantity per Lot
Cost per Unit of
Measure
Total Costs
PRODUCTION REQUIREMENTSStandard lot size (in units) 1,000 Direct labor employees 2
PROCESS TIME Average
Cycle time (in seconds) 80 20 60 110
Start LotLoad materials into hopper 1.00 0.050 0.900 1.100Enter machine parameters 0.15 0.005 0.140 0.160Prepare documentation 0.15 0.015 0.120 0.180Setup machine 0.50 0.025 0.350 0.600Subtotal start lot 1.800 0.095 1.510 2.040
End LotReset machine parameters 0.08 0.008 0.070 0.090Count units 0.75 0.150 0.500 1.000Verify count 0.50 0.050 0.450 0.550Document output produced 0.25 0.025 0.230 0.270Clean area 0.17 0.025 0.140 0.200Subtotal end lot 1.75 0.258 1.390 2.110
Total setup time* 3.550 0.353 2.900 4.150
Machine TimeRun production 22.22
Total Processing Time 25.77
Net available time in hours 120
Number of lots per week 5.00
Standard Deviation
Minimum Value
Maximum Value
*Total setup time = SStart Lot Activities + S End Lot Activities
Materials Each 500 $ 1.00 $ 500
Setup labor Hours 7.10 $ 15.00 107 Labor Hours 44.44 $ 15.00 667 Subtotal labor 774
Setup machine Hours 3.55 $ 50.00 178 Overhead Hours 22.22 $ 50.00 1,111 Total overhead costs 1,289 Total costs per lot (1) $ 2,562
Cost per unit (2) $ 2.56
Sales price $ 3.25 Gross Margin 27%
(1) Sum of labor, materials and overhead costs(2) Total costs ÷ standard lot size
Unit of Measure
Quantity per Lot
Cost per Unit of
Measure
Total Costs
Page
Crystal Ball ReportSimulation started on 12/22/03 at 7:11:41Simulation stopped on 12/22/03 at 7:11:44
Assumptions
Assumption: Cycle time (in seconds) Cell: B6
Triangular distribution with parameters:Minimum 60.00Likeliest 80.00Maximum 110.00
Selected range is from 60.00 to 110.00
Assumption: Load materials into hopper Cell: B9
Uniform distribution with parameters:Minimum 0.90Maximum 1.10
Assumption: Count units Cell: B17
Uniform distribution with parameters:Minimum 0.50Maximum 1.00
End of Assumptions
Mean = 83.33
60.00 72.50 85.00 97.50 110.00
Cycle time (in seconds)
Mean = 1.00
0.90 0.95 1.00 1.05 1.10
Load materials into hopper
Mean = 0.75
0.50 0.63 0.75 0.88 1.00
Count units
Page
Crystal Ball ReportSimulation started on 12/22/03 at 7:11:41Simulation stopped on 12/22/03 at 7:11:44
Forecast: Total Processing Time [AppendixC.xls]Monte Carlo Time - Cell: B28
Percentiles:
Percentile Hours0% 20.57
10% 23.1120% 24.1930% 25.0040% 25.7550% 26.3960% 27.1070% 28.0380% 29.1790% 30.40
100% 33.91
End of Forecast
Frequency Chart
Certainty is 95.00% from 21.72 to 32.21 Hours
Mean = 26.60.000
.006
.012
.018
.024
0
6
12
18
24
20.67 23.97 27.27 30.57 33.87
1,000 Trials 997 Displayed
Forecast: Total Processing Time
Page
Forecast: Number of lots per week [AppendixC.xls]Monte Carlo Time - Cell: B32
Percentiles:
Percentile lots0% 4.00
10% 4.0020% 4.0030% 4.0040% 4.0050% 5.0060% 5.0070% 5.0080% 5.0090% 5.00
100% 6.00
End of Forecast
Cumulative Chart
lots
Mean = 4.58.000
.250
.500
.750
1.000
0
250
500
750
1000
4.00 5.25 6.50 7.75 9.00
1,000 Trials 1,000 Displayed
Forecast: Number of lots per week
Page
Forecast: Cost per Unit [AppendixC.xls]Monte Carlo Cost - Cell: E13
Percentiles:
Percentile Dollars0% $2.15
10% $2.35 20% $2.44 30% $2.50 40% $2.56 50% $2.61 60% $2.67 70% $2.74 80% $2.83 90% $2.93
100% $3.21
End of Forecast
Frequency Chart
Certainty is 95.00% from $2.24 to $3.08 Dollars
Mean = $2.63.000
.006
.012
.018
.024
0
6
12
18
24
$2.15 $2.42 $2.68 $2.95 $3.21
1,000 Trials 997 Displayed
Forecast: Cost per Unit
Page
Forecast: Gross Margin [AppendixC.xls]Monte Carlo Cost - Cell: E16
Percentiles:
Percentile Percent0% 1%
10% 11%20% 15%30% 18%40% 22%50% 24%60% 27%70% 30%80% 33%90% 38%
100% 51%
End of Forecast
Frequency Chart
Certainty is 95.00% from 5% to 45% Percent
Mean = 25%.000
.006
.013
.019
.025
0
6.25
12.5
18.75
25
1% 14% 26% 38% 51%
1,000 Trials 998 Displayed
Forecast: Gross Margin
Page
Crystal Ball ReportSimulation started on 12/22/03 at 7:11:41Simulation stopped on 12/22/03 at 7:11:44
Target Forecast: Cost per Unit
Cycle time (in seconds) 99.6%
Load materials into hopper 0.3%
Count units 0.1%
100% 50% 0% 50% 100%
Measured by Contribution to Variance
Sensitiv ity Chart
Page
Crystal Ball ReportSimulation started on 12/22/03 at 7:51:03Simulation stopped on 12/22/03 at 7:51:07
Forecast: Total Processing Time [AppendixC.xls]Monte Carlo Time - Cell: B28
Percentiles:
Percentile Hours0% 23.01
10% 24.1620% 24.6530% 25.1440% 25.4550% 25.7360% 26.0770% 26.3880% 26.7590% 27.26
100% 28.72
End of Forecast
Frequency Chart
Certainty is 95.00% from 23.57 to 27.98 Hours
Mean = 25.75.000
.006
.013
.019
.025
0
6.25
12.5
18.75
25
23.06 24.44 25.83 27.21 28.60
1,000 Trials 998 Displayed
Forecast: Total Processing Time
Page
Forecast: Number of lots per week [AppendixC.xls]Monte Carlo Time - Cell: B32
Percentiles:
Percentile lots0% 4.00
10% 4.0020% 4.0030% 5.0040% 5.0050% 5.0060% 5.0070% 5.0080% 5.0090% 5.00
100% 5.00
End of Forecast
Cumulative Chart
lots
Mean = 4.78.000
.250
.500
.750
1.000
0
250
500
750
1000
4.00 5.25 6.50 7.75 9.00
1,000 Trials 1,000 Displayed
Forecast: Number of lots per week
Page
Forecast: Cost per Unit [AppendixC.xls]Monte Carlo Cost - Cell: E13
Percentiles:
Percentile Dollars0% $2.34
10% $2.43 20% $2.47 30% $2.51 40% $2.54 50% $2.56 60% $2.59 70% $2.61 80% $2.64 90% $2.68
100% $2.80
End of Forecast
Frequency Chart
Certainty is 95.00% from $2.39 to $2.74 Dollars
Mean = $2.56.000
.006
.013
.019
.025
0
6.25
12.5
18.75
25
$2.35 $2.46 $2.57 $2.68 $2.79
1,000 Trials 998 Displayed
Forecast: Cost per Unit
Page
Forecast: Gross Margin [AppendixC.xls]Monte Carlo Cost - Cell: E16
Percentiles:
Percentile Percent0% 16%
10% 21%20% 23%30% 24%40% 26%50% 27%60% 28%70% 29%80% 31%90% 34%
100% 39%
End of Forecast
Frequency Chart
Certainty is 95.00% from 19% to 36% Percent
Mean = 27%.000
.007
.013
.020
.026
0
6.5
13
19.5
26
17% 22% 28% 33% 39%
1,000 Trials 997 Displayed
Forecast: Gross Margin
Page
Assumptions
Assumption: Cycle time (in seconds) Cell: B6
Triangular distribution with parameters:Minimum 70.00Likeliest 80.00Maximum 90.00
Selected range is from 70.00 to 90.00
Assumption: Load materials into hopper Cell: B9
Uniform distribution with parameters:Minimum 0.90Maximum 1.10
Assumption: Count units Cell: B17
Uniform distribution with parameters:Minimum 0.50Maximum 1.00
End of Assumptions
Mean = 80.00
70.00 75.00 80.00 85.00 90.00
Cycle time (in seconds)
Mean = 1.00
0.90 0.95 1.00 1.05 1.10
Load materials into hopper
Mean = 0.75
0.50 0.63 0.75 0.88 1.00
Count units
