APAC FUTURE OF ENERGY SUMMIT 亚太地区未来能源峰会...digital energy and energy storage projects (not reported in quarterly statistics). ... Bloomberg Intelligence, Bloomberg

APAC FUTURE OF ENERGY SUMMIT 亚太地区未来能源峰会

Michael Liebreich

Chairman of the Advisory Board

Twitter: @mliebreich

迈克尔·利布莱希

BNEF咨询委员会主席

2 November 2016, Shanghai

2016年11月2日，上海

1 Michael Liebreich @MLiebreich BNEF APAC Future of Energy Summit, 2 November 2016 #BNEFSummit

PARIS AGREEMENT 巴黎协议

The Paris Agreement is a monumental triumph

for people and our planet. 巴黎协定是全人类和这个星球不朽的丰碑。

Ban Ki Moon, former UN SG 前联合国秘书长

This is a turning point. This gives us the best possible

shot to save the one planet we got. 这是一个转折点。它是拯救我们唯一赖以生存的星球的最大努力。

Barack Obama, US President 美国总统

Today's agreement signals nothing less than a

renaissance for humankind. 今天所达成协议的意义不亚于文艺复兴。

Mr. Mogens Lykketoft, President, UN General Assembly 联合国大会主席

Together we have opened the door to a sustainable

and climate-safe future for all. 我们共同开启了全人类通向可持续发展的、气候安全的未来的大门。

Christiana Figueres, former head, UNFCCC 前联合国气候变化框架公约主席


ONSHORE WIND 陆上风电 SOLAR PV 光伏

Location:

Bidder:

Signed:

Construction:

Price:

Morocco 摩洛哥

Enel Green Power

January 2016

2018

US$ 3.0 c/kWh

Location:

Bidder:

Signed:

Construction:

Price:

Peru 秘鲁

Enel Green Power

February 2016

2017

US$ 4.8 c/kWh

2016 UNSUBSIDISED CLEAN ENERGY 2016年没有补贴的清洁能源 WORLD RECORDS 世界纪录

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance; ImagesSiemens; Wikimedia Commons


ONSHORE WIND 陆上风电

Location:

Bidder:

Signed:

Construction:

Price:

Morocco 摩洛哥

Enel Green Power

January 2016

2018

US$ 3.0 c/kWh

Location:

Bidder:

Signed:

Construction:

Price:

Coahuila, Mexico 墨西哥

Enel Green Power

March 2016

2018

US$ 3.6 c/kWh



SOLAR PV 光伏



Location:

Bidder:

Signed:

Construction:

Price:

Morocco 摩洛哥

Enel Green Power

January 2016

2018

US$ 3.0 c/kWh

Location:

Bidder:

Signed:

Construction:

Price:

Dubai 迪拜

Masdar Consortium

May 2016

2019

US$ 2.99 c/kWh





Location:

Bidder:

Signed:

Construction:

Price:

Morocco 摩洛哥

Enel Green Power

January 2016

2018

US$ 3.0 c/kWh

Location:

Bidder:

Signed:

Construction:

Price:

Chile 智利

Solarpack Corporation

August 2016

2019

US$ 2.91 c/kWh




y = 3,582.42x-0.30

R² = 0.91

16

32

64

128

256

512

1,024

100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000

1985

2025

2016

Learning rate = 19%

1999

2009

WIND COSTS

HAVE FALLEN

50% SINCE 2009

风电成本下降

WIND AND SOLAR EXPERIENCE CURVES 风电及光伏的经验曲线

Note: Prices are in real (2015) USD. ‘Current price’ is $0.4/W

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Maycock

Note: Pricing data has been inflation corrected to 2014. We assume the debt ratio of 70%, cost of

debt (bps to LIBOR) of 175, cost of equity of 8%. *Data is for Northern Europe.

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

0.1

1

10

100

1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000

1976

1985

2003

2012

Cumulative capacity (MW)

2016

2008

Learning rate 24.3%

SOLAR COSTS

HAVE FALLEN

>99% SINCE 1976

90% since 2009

光伏成本下降

SOLAR PV MODULE COST ($/W)

光伏组件成本（美元/瓦）

ONSHORE WIND LEVELISED COST* ($/MWH)

北欧陆上风电平准化度电成本（美元/兆瓦时）


CAPACITY FACTOR IMPROVEMENTS 容量系数不断提升

LONGER BLADES 更长的叶片 LOW-WIND TURBINES AT HIGH-WIND

SITES 在高风速区域使用低风速风机

SITE-OPTIMISED POWER CURVES 根据选址优化功率曲线

HIGHER TOWERS 更高的风塔

Source: Siemens, Nordex, GE, Vestas


Note: Averages are capacity-weighted. We calculate the capacity factor with our proprietary Wind Farm Capacity Factor Tool using

real project data and wind resource data provided by 3TIER by Vaisala. We assume P90 value in the capacity factor tool. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

GLOBAL (EX. CHINA) ONSHORE WIND CAPACITY FACTOR IMPROVEMENTS, 1997-2015 (%) 全球（不含中国）陆上风电容量系数增长，1997-2015（%）

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020

Germany Denmark UK Spain US Canada

299MW

https://www.bnef.com/Insight/12052https:/www.bnef.com/Insight/12052


Note: LCOE at time of commissioning. Auction bids are transformed to a bid-equivalent LCOEs from a project’s estimate lifetime, tariff price

and duration, tariff escalators and an assumption on power price for the merchant tail using 2015 average day-ahead power prices. For

planned auctions we use the auction ceiling price as a proxy for the winning tariff.

Source: Bloomberg New

Energy Finance

OFFSHORE WIND LCOE BY COMMISSIONING DATE, 2012-30 ($/MWH) 海上风电平准化度电成本，按投产时间，2012-30 （美元/兆瓦时）

0

50

100

150

200

250

2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

BNEF historic LCOE

5%

10%

20%

Industry

target range

行业目标区间

历史平准化成本


Note: LCOE at time of commissioning. Auction bids are transformed to a bid-equivalent LCOEs from a project’s estimate lifetime, tariff price

and duration, tariff escalators and an assumption on power price for the merchant tail using 2015 average day-ahead power prices. For

planned auctions we use the auction ceiling price as a proxy for the winning tariff.

Source: Bloomberg New

Energy Finance

0

50

100

150

200

250

2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

BNEF historic LCOE

5%

10%

20%

X X X

X

X X Neart na Goithe East Anglia 1

Early CfDs

ROCs

X Horns Rev III

X Danish

‘near-shore’

X Borssele I & II

Industry

target range

OFFSHORE WIND LCOE BY COMMISSIONING DATE, 2012-30 ($/MWH) 海上风电平准化度电成本，按投产时间，2012-30 （美元/兆瓦时）

历史平准化成本

Industry

target range

行业目标区间



PRICE IMPACT OF SWITCH FROM FIT TO AUCTIONS, SELECTED COUNTRIES (NORMALISED) 从固定上网电价过度到招标制度对部分国家的价格影响（标准化价格）

SOLAR PV 光伏

(unit price normalised to 100 at date of first auction)

ONSHORE WIND 陆上风电

(unit price normalised to 100 at date of first auction)

: non-tariff price signals

: tariffs

: auctions

KEY

EMEA

Other LatAm

Brazil

India

South Africa

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

+3+2+10-1-2-3

- 30% - 50%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

+3+2+10-1-2-3

- 35% - 60%


$62bn

$88bn

$128bn

$175bn

$205bn $207bn

$276bn

$318bn

$291bn

$269bn

$315bn

$349bn

0.00

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

100.00

120.00

140.00

160.00

0

100

200

300

400

500

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT HIT A RECORD IN 2015 2015年，清洁能源投资额创下历史新高

RECORD

INVESTMENT IN 2015

2015年清洁能源投资额创下历史新高

Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes corporate and government R&D, and spending for

digital energy and energy storage projects (not reported in quarterly statistics). Excludes large hydro. Source: Bloomberg Intelligence, Bloomberg New Energy Finance


$62bn

$88bn

$128bn

$175bn

$205bn $207bn

$276bn

$318bn

$291bn

$269bn

$315bn

$349bn

0.00

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

100.00

120.00

140.00

160.00

0

100

200

300

400

500

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes corporate and government R&D, and spending for

digital energy and energy storage projects (not reported in quarterly statistics). Excludes large hydro. Source: Bloomberg Intelligence, Bloomberg New Energy Finance

CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT ROSE, CAPACITY INSTALLATIONS ROSE FASTER 清洁能源投资额上升，清洁能源装机量增速更快 GLOBAL CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT VS CAPACITY INSTALLATIONS 2004-15 全球清洁能源投资额 VS 装机量 2004-15

0.00

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

100.00

120.00

140.00

160.00

0

100

200

300

400

500

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

88GW

20GW

“Spend the same,

get more”

投资不变，装机增长

152GW

Investment 投资额

+463%

Installations 装机量

+660%

“Spend more,

get more”

投资越多，装机越多


0.1%

0.2%

0.4%

0.8%

1.6%

3.1%

6.3%

12.5%

25.0%

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

RENEWABLES SHARE OF TOTAL SYSTEM GENERATION, 2000–15 可再生能源发电比例，2000-15

Note: Y-axes are logarithmic with base 2 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, BP, UNEP

WIND 风电

Four

doublings

四次翻番

SOLAR 光伏

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.4%

0.8%

1.6%

3.1%

6.3%

12.5%

25.0%

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Seven

doublings

七次翻番

0.05%

0.03%

0.01% 15年 years 15年 years



GLOBAL EV SALES BY REGION 全球不同地区电动车销量

5.0 4.7 6.6 7.5 10.8 13.8 17.6 18.125.1 27.2 28.9

22.433.5 33.8 30.6

24.632.5 29.9

35.429.0

39.7

2.4 4.36.7

6.16.7 5.4

5.89.4

25.9

17.6

21.6 21.3 26.4 36.9

39.836.9

68.1

48.9

47.2

5.2 2.85.1

8.98.0 6.9

8.7 11.44.3

7.1

14.0

13.6

10.416.1

22.720.6

25.0 39.4

52.5

46.8

70.5

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

APAC EMEA AMER

+81% CAGR

（年复合增长率）


Tesla Model 3

特斯拉

BMW i3

宝马

VW e-Golf

大众 Chevy Bolt

雪佛兰

Images: Tesla, BMW, VW, GM, BYD

EV MASS MARKET 大众消费级电动车 $30,000 + 200 MILES RANGE

BYD E6

比亚迪


Images: Tesla, Daimler, Volvo, GM

EV PREMIUM / SUV / PRIMARY CARS 高级电动车/SUV/日常用车

Tesla

Model X

Mitsubishi

Outlander Volvo XC90 T8

Mercedes EQ

GM Hydrogen

Hybrid Truck


Note: forecast uses Gasoline and electricity prices from EIA’s 2015 Annual Energy Outlook ‘Low Oil Price’ scenario (ranging from $50 to

$65 per barrel between 2015 and 2025). High scenario assumes greater vehicle utilisation. Low scenario assumes $20 per barrel oil price Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

GLOBAL LIGHT DUTY VEHICLE AND EV ANNUAL SALES, 2015–40 2015-40年全球轻型车及电动汽车年度销售量 (M VEHICLES SOLD PER YEAR, %) 百万辆/年, 占当年销售量的百分比

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%

020406080100120140

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

ICE + HEV BEV PHEV EV % of new sales

m vehicles sold per year % of new car sales

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

m vehicles sold per year % of new car sales

By 2040, up to 50% of new

cars will be EVs

到2040年，多达50%的新增汽车将是电动车

Shared vehicle Scenario

汽车共享情景

$20 oil Scenario

20美元油价情景


Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Excludes corporate and government R&D, and spending for digital energy and energy storage

projects (reported in annual statistics only). Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

GLOBAL NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY 清洁能源新增投资 Q1 2004-Q3 2016 ($BN) 2004年第一季度至2016年第三季度（十亿美元）

9.1

13.4

9.310.813.2

20.2

15.5

21.1

27.4

23.0

37.1

27.8

35.4

52.1

35.8

51.9

45.9

30.4

50.247.6

44.7

51.4

57.058.8

70.9

57.1

79.8

72.9

62.3

51.8

69.8

58.7

64.3

41.8

63.7

53.9

63.2

57.2

73.0

69.2

61.0

90.0

74.9

54.9

61.5

42.4

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Four quarter running average



projects (reported in annual statistics only) Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

APAC NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY亚太地区清洁能源新增投资 Q1 2004-Q3 2016 ($BN) 2004至2016年第三季度（十亿美元/季度）

3.3 2.0 3.0 2.8 4.0 4.3 4.5 6.0 5.9 5.0 6.1 7.3 6.6 8.1 9.3 9.7 8.912.211.19.911.310.7

15.116.715.517.018.217.618.6

23.9

19.817.717.2

27.324.3

21.419.0

32.729.4

26.627.6

36.6

40.5

32.830.8

46.9

42.939.7

20.4

29.2

22.3


2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016


3.32.0

3.0 2.84.0 4.3 4.5

6.05.0

6.17.3 6.6

8.19.7

8.9

12.211.1 11.310.7

15.116.7

15.517.0

18.217.618.6

23.9

19.8

17.717.2

27.3

24.3

21.4

19.0

32.7

29.4

26.627.6

36.6

40.5

30.8

46.9

39.7

20.4

29.2

22.3


2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016





CHINA NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY中国清洁能源新增投资 Q1 2004-Q3 2016 ($BN) 2004至2016年第三季度（十亿美元/季度）

0.6 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.4 2.2 1.5 2.4 2.1 2.1 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.8 5.23.5 3.8

7.7 6.5 6.3 7.1 7.210.2

12.5

8.511.0 10.9

14.7

10.48.6

18.5

14.612.3

7.8

18.915.5

13.3

25.3

18.2

32.729.3

26.9

13.0

20.7

14.4


2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016


0.6 0.3 0.6 0.81.4

2.21.5

2.4 2.13.1 3.1 3.0

3.8 3.5 3.8

7.76.5

7.1 7.2

10.2

12.5

8.5

11.011.310.910.1

14.7

10.49.1

8.6

18.5

14.6

12.3

7.8

18.9

17.5

15.5

13.3

23.6

25.3

18.2

32.7

26.9

13.0

20.7

14.4


2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016





JAPAN NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY日本清洁能源新增投资 Q1 2004-Q3 2016 ($BN) 2004至2016年第三季度（十亿美元/季度）

0.8 1.0 1.3 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.0 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 1.1 0.9 0.7 1.5 0.9 1.7 1.0 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.33.8 3.7 4.1 5.6

7.6 7.7 7.6 7.59.1 8.8 8.9 8.3 8.2 8.1 8.0 7.4

3.3 2.8 3.5


2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016


0.81.0

1.31.0 1.0

0.8 0.81.1

0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6

1.10.9

1.5

0.9

1.7

1.0

2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7

2.3 2.4 2.3 2.3

3.83.7

4.1

5.6

7.67.7 7.6 7.5

9.18.8 8.9

8.2 8.1

7.4

3.3

2.8

3.5


2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016





INDIA NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY印度清洁能源新增投资 Q1 2004-Q3 2016 ($BN) 2004至2016年第三季度（十亿美元/季度）

1.1 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.3 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.1 1.0 1.3 1.1 2.0 1.5 2.2 1.8 1.5 1.4 0.9 1.3 1.0 1.2 0.82.5 1.8 2.5 2.0 2.7 2.9 4.4

2.8 2.2 2.3 1.8 1.5 1.9 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.3 1.43.6

2.0 1.8 2.0 2.6 2.9 2.2 1.6 2.0


2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016


1.1

0.4

0.70.5 0.6

0.3

1.01.2 1.1

1.0

1.31.1

2.02.2

1.8

1.5 1.41.3

1.0

1.2

0.8

2.5

1.8

2.5

2.0

2.72.9

4.4

2.8

2.2 2.3

1.8

1.5

1.9

1.5 1.51.7

1.31.4

3.6

1.8

2.0

2.9

2.2

1.6

2.0


2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016



0%

4%

8%

12%

16%

20%

24%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Solar

Wind

Hydro

Nuclear

Gas

Coal

0%

4%

8%

12%

16%

20%

24%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Solar

Wind

Hydro

Nuclear

Gas

Coal

CHINA ANNUAL NET POWER CAPACITY ADDITIONS (GW/YR) 中国年装机净增长及年用电量（百万千瓦/年，百万千瓦时/年）


0%

4%

8%

12%

16%

20%

24%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Solar

Wind

Nuclear

Gas

Coal

YOY% power demand growth

0%

4%

8%

12%

16%

20%

24%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Solar

Wind

Hydro

Nuclear

Gas

Coal


THERMAL CAPACITY FACTORS CONTINUE TO FALL, CURTAILMENTS IN KEY REGIONS ARE ALSO HIGHER 火电机组的容量系数持续下降，重点地区的限电仍然持续攀升

Note: Includes all fossil fuel-fired thermal capacity.

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, China Electricity Council Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, China Electricity Council

AVERAGE THERMAL CAPACITY FACTOR

平均火电机组容量系数

AVERAGE WIND AND PV CURTAILMENT RATE

风电及光伏限电率 Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

2Q

3

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Wind PV风电光伏


asd Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

ANNUAL COAL CAPACITY ADDITIONS, HISTORICAL AND PLANNED (GW/YR) 年煤电装机增长量，历史及规划（百万千瓦/年）

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 20200

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

BNEF NEO

Govt plan with 2016 newpolicies

Hard stop scenario(build only what is needed)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

BNEF NEO


Hard stop scenario(build only what is needed)0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

BNEF NEO


Hard stop scenario(build only what is needed)

“One power plant per week”

每周投产一个发电厂

“Two power plants per week”

每周投产两个发电厂


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

Note: Historical data is for gross power generation whereas forecast growth is net

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, BP Statistical

Review of World Energy

JAPAN CUMULATIVE INSTALLED COAL CAPACITY VS POWER DEMAND, HISTORICAL AND FORECAST 2005-30 2005-30 日本累计煤电装机容量 VS 电力需求

TWh/yr GW installed

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

Historical

BNEF forecast

Japan government forecast

Installed coal

capacity


FOREIGN INVESTMENTS GROWING IN INDIA 越来越多外来投资进入印度市场

https://www.clpgroup.com/Pages/home.aspx


Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, BP Statistical Review

of World Energy, The Energy and Resource Institute of India

INDIA POWER DEMAND VS OFFICIAL GOVERNMENT FORECAST, 2000-30 (TWH/YR) 印度电力需求增长 VS 政府官方预测（十亿千瓦时/年），2000-30

Historical 历史数据 Forecast 预测数据

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

BNEF

Indian government


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Note: Forecast is based on BNEF’s New Energy Outlook to 2040 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

ANNUAL COAL CAPACITY ADDITIONS AND COAL GENERATION UTILISATION FACTOR, 2005-2030 (GW/YR, %) 年度新增煤电装机以及煤电机组的容量系数，2005-2030 （GW/年，%）

Historical 历史数据 Forecast 预测数据

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Coal utilisation factor

(right-hand axis)

Annual coal capacity

additions

(GW, left-hand axis)


OFF GRID MARKET SHOWING STEADY GROWTH 离网市场呈现稳定的增长

CUMULATIVE NEW HOUSEHOLDS

ACCESSING SMALL ENERGY

GRIDS (‘000)

累计新接入微网的家庭用户（千户）

CUMULATIVE NEW HOUSEHOLDS

ACCESSING SMALL HOME

SYSTEMS (‘000)

累计新接入分布式家庭能源系统的用户（千户）

CUMULATIVE LANTERNS (<10W)

SOLD (M UNITS)

累计电灯（<10瓦）销售量（百万个）

Note: 11 major companies were interviewed for this data. Note: 7 major companies were interviewed for this data.

Note: 11 major companies were interviewed for this data. Data was

also taken from government disclosures and press releases by state

nodal agencies


8

26

51

91

0

20

40

60

80

100

FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016

19

4353

76

0

20

40

60

80

100

FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016

0.7

1.7

3.2

5.5

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016


$62bn

$88bn

$128bn

$175bn

$205bn $207bn

$276bn

$317bn

$291bn

$269bn

$315bn

$349bn

0.00

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

100.00

120.00

140.00

160.00

0

100

200

300

400

500

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes corporate and government R&D, and spending

for digital energy and energy storage projects (not reported in quarterly statistics). Excludes large hydro. Source: Bloomberg Intelligence, Bloomberg New Energy Finance

CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT ROSE, CAPACITY INSTALLATIONS ROSE FASTER 清洁能源投资额上升，清洁能源装机量增速更快 GLOBAL CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT VS CAPACITY INSTALLATIONS 2004-15 全球清洁能源投资额 VS 装机量 2004-20

88GW

20GW

“Spend the same,

get more”

投资不变，装机增长

“Spend more,

get more”

投资越多，装机越多

0.00

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

100.00

120.00

140.00

160.00

0

100

200

300

400

500

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20200.00

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

100.00

120.00

140.00

160.00

0

100

200

300

400

500

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

152GW

“Spend less,

get the same”

投资减少，装机增长不变

165GW

Preliminary estimate


WE’RE ON TRACK TO ACHIEVE THE NDCS, BUT WE’RE A LONG WAY FROM 2 DEGREES 我们已经在实现国家自主贡献（NDCS）的轨道上，但是离2摄氏度目标还有很长的路要走


Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Note: NDC compliant trajectory is consistent with the

achievement of conditional targets pledges by respective countries

BNEF FORECAST FOR POWER GENERATION MIX

BNEF对发电量组合的预测

BNEF FORECAST FOR POWER SECTOR EMISSIONS

VS NDC AND 2 DEGC TRAJECTORY (GTCO2E)

BNEF对于电力行业排放的预测，对比国家自主贡献（NDCS）与2摄氏度目标

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Other

Solar thermal

Small-scale PV

Utility-scale PV

Offshore wind

Onshore wind

Biomass/WtE

Geothermal

Hydro

Nuclear

Oil

Gas

Coal

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2016 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2016 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

BNEF NEO emissions trajectory

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2016 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

NDC compliant trajectory

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2016 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

2 degrees trajectory


THERMAL COAL CONSUMED IN POWER GENERATION (MT/YR) 电煤消耗量（百万吨/年）

Note: Assumes coal quality of 6,000kcal/tonne Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA

WORLD EXCLUDING ASIA 除亚洲以外的其他地区 ASIA 亚洲

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040


UK COAL DEMAND SINCE 1850 英国自1850年以来的煤炭需求

0

50

100

150

200

250

1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Source: BEIS, Prof. David Rutledge, Bloomberg New Energy Finance

Government

target: all coal

phased out by

2025

政府目标：2025

年全面禁煤



GLOBAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY (MTOE) 全球一次能源供应（百万吨石油当量）

10,000

5,000

1,000

0

Renewable energy 可再生能源

Natural gas 天然气

Oil 石油 Coal

煤炭

Nuclear

核电


Note: BNEF adjusted IEA NPS forecast using its own electricity generation and EV demand forecast. Renewables total includes bioenergy and hydro. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA

GLOBAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY, 1975 (MTOE) 全球一次能源供应,1975年（百万吨石油当量）

10,000

5,000

1,000

1975



Oil 石油

Nuclear

核电

Coal

煤炭




10,000

5,000

1,000

1980



Oil 石油

Nuclear

核电

Coal

煤炭




10,000

5,000

1,000

1985



Oil 石油

Nuclear

核电

Coal

煤炭




10,000

5,000

1,000

1990



Oil 石油

Nuclear

核电

Coal

煤炭




10,000

5,000

1,000

1995



Oil 石油

Nuclear

核电

Coal

煤炭



GLOBAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY, 2000 (MTOE) 全球一次能源供应, 2000年（百万吨石油当量）

10,000

5,000

1,000

2000



Oil 石油

Nuclear

核电

Coal

煤炭




10,000

5,000

1,000

2005



Oil 石油 Coal

煤炭

Nuclear

核电




10,000

5,000

1,000

2010



Oil 石油

Nuclear

核电

Coal

煤炭




10,000

5,000

1,000

2015



Oil 石油

Nuclear

核电

Coal

煤炭



GLOBAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY (MTOE) 全球一次能源供应,（百万吨石油当量）

10,000

5,000

1,000

2015BNEF 2040

电力行业展望



Oil 石油

Nuclear

核电

Coal

煤炭




10,000

5,000

1,000

2015



Oil 石油

Nuclear

核电

IEA 450ppm 2040

IEA二氧化碳浓度450ppm情景 BNEF 2040

电力行业展望

Coal

煤炭


Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA


10,000

5,000

1,000

2015

IEA 450ppm 2040

IEA二氧化碳浓度450ppm情景

Illustrative Paris

scenario before 2100

2100巴黎协议情景

Note: BNEF adjusted IEA NPS forecast using its own electricity generation and EV demand forecast. Renewables total includes bioenergy and hydro.

Paris illustrative scenario assumes some carbon capture.



Oil 石油

Nuclear

核电

BNEF 2040

电力行业展望

Coal

煤炭


SHANGHAI 上海

Image: Dan Spira

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迈克尔·利布莱希，BNEF咨询委员会主席

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Documents

APAC FUTURE OF ENERGY SUMMIT 亚太地区未来能源峰会...digital energy and energy storage projects (not reported in quarterly statistics). ... Bloomberg Intelligence, Bloomberg