Task 2, Lesson 1: Population and Climate Change

AP TopicsHuman population dynamics(Historical population sizes; distribution; fertility rates; growth rates and doubling times; demographic transition; age-structure diagrams)Population size(Strategies for sustainability; case studies; national policies)Impacts of population growth(Hunger; disease; economic effects; resource use; habitat destruction)

Learning ObjectivesStudents will understand how to analyze a country’s population demographics and how to use those demographics to predict future changes.Students will understand drivers of human population growth and declineStudents will understand the relationship between population and affluence on climate change

Lesson Steps in Brief Pacing

1: Framing In5

2: Introduction to Task Assignment5

3: Lecture or Discussion: IPAT10

4: Lecture (and small group discussion): Human Population and Your Country

30-40

5. Work on country population research/posters

30

Total time: 80-90 min.

Materials: GCS_T2_L1_Task 2 Assignment .docx GCS_T2_L1_Population Review.pptx GCS_T2_L1_Demographic Transition Model.ppt

Optional GCS_T2_L1_NatGeo_World Population copy.pdf GCS_T2_L1_PopQuiz.pdf

Teacher Background and Planning Notes: In this task, students will analyze current population demographics and predict future demographics of their chosen country. They will create a poster that describes the current population demographics and drivers of growth of that country, looking at birth and death

GCS, Task 2, Lesson 1: Your Role and Country 1

rates, infant mortality, immigration, emigration, growth rates, etc. They will predict their country’s future population size and hypothesize on what factors may contribute to future population growth. This task sets the stage to think about the countries’ contribution to climate change and the population and development pressures it is experiencing. This is a task that needs to be completed prior to the AP exam.

Lesson Steps in Detail

Step 1: Framing In

People contribute to climate change. The size of your population, their level of wealth (affluence) and their access to technology all contribute to their impact on climate change. In this task, you’ll find out about how this works in your country. You will create a poster to educate other countries about your country’s current and future population in preparation for the Global Climate Summit.

Step 2: Introduction to Task Assignment

To start this task, pass out the task assignment, GCS_T2_L1_Task 2 Assignment .docx which is a poster communicating information about the population of their country. To be able to create this poster, they will need to learn more population concepts and vocabulary, hence the supporting instruction you will provide.

Step 3: Brief Explanation of IPAT

The IPAT equation shows students the relationship of population, affluence and technology to environmental impacts. Discuss the equation and how it is used in calculating greenhouse gases (GHG). Have students read about the equation in their textbook, if there is not time to go over it in class.

Environmental Impact=Population x Affluence x Technology.

The adaptation of this equation (below) has been used by IPCC (International Panel on Climate Change) to model future climate change. Students do not need to memorize the equation below, but need to understand the relationship between population, affluence, and energy use to understand their country’s contribution to climate change.

CO2 Emissions = Population x (GDP/Population) x (Energy/GDP) x (CO2 /Energy)

By the end of this task and the next, students should have an understanding for what part of this equation serves as the largest driver for CO2 emissions in their country and which variables would be possible to change.

Step 4: Lecture/Activities Human Population and Your Country’s Population

GCS, Task 2, Lesson 1: Your Role and Country 2

With an understanding of the potential impact of climate change (T1L3) on their country and it’s contribution to climate change (above), you will now focus specifically on population growth, development status, and energy consumption (next task). Those characteristics of your country will influence what students are willing or able to negotiate. This builds on previously learned content from earlier cycles.

You may want to get a feel of what your students know by giving them a quiz or leading a discussion on these questions. (Or you can use the quiz GCS_T2_L1_PopQuiz.pdf)

1. How many people live on this planet? http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/

2. Is the human population growing logistically or exponentially?3. How is the human population increasing, if the overall growth rate has

decreased?4. How many years will it take to get our first billion people? How many to get our

next billion? http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/ (bottom of the page)

5. How varied are fertility rates in different countries? What is the cause of the variance?

During the discussion, if it appears your students need a review of the material on populations covered in previous cycles, go through this review with them: GCS_Population Review.pptx

GCS_Demographic Transition Model.ppt provides a slide of the demographic transition model and several questions that can be discussed in small groups. Be sure students understand the model and how it applies to their country.

Optional Reading: discusses the phases of the transitional model and how it correlates with population pyramids GCS_T2_L1_NatGeo_World Population copy.pdf

Step 5: Research/Work on Posters

After the discussion, give your students time (approximately 30 min.) to begin their research on their country’s population. They will need access to computers. Many developed nations will have their own data. For less developed nations you may want to direct your students to http://www.census.gov/population/international/data/idb/informationGateway.php and a site that creates population pyramids http://populationpyramid.net/

These are the questions from their task assignment that specify the information they need to include on their posters.

1. What is your country’s current population? In your explanation, be sure to include a current age structure diagram.

2. Use a chart to explain the crude birth rate, crude death rate, infant mortality rate, and fertility rate for your country.

3. Include a graph showing population over time (as far back as you can get data for) up until the present (using solid line) and then extrapolate future population

GCS, Task 2, Lesson 1: Your Role and Country 3

growth (using dotted line) to the year 2050. To extrapolate future growth, first calculate growth rate and doubling time (show your calculations on your poster). Use these to determine future growth.

4. Explain how many people do you think your country can support? Why?5. What have been the major drivers of population change (i.e. women’s education,

infectious disease, family planning, access to clean water…). List these factors and include pictures to illustrate them.

6. List and explain: How does your country’s population and population growth impact the environment? Is this a problem? Describe how. If it isn’t, will it become one given your future extrapolations? Include pictures to illustrate this.

7. Does your country need a population policy? Answer and use key wordsa. If yes, how can you slow the human population growth rate in your

country?b. If no, what policies are in place to control your country’s population size?

8. References Cited

Teacher Notes on this lesson:

GCS, Task 2, Lesson 1: Your Role and Country 4