Task 1, Lesson 2: Population Demographics

AP Topics Formative Assessment OpportunitiesHuman Population: Age structure diagrams, fertility rates

Age structure handout Discussion of Demographics reading Population Pyramid FRQ

Learning Objectives Formative Assessment OpportunitiesStudent will learn how age structure affects future population changes

Age structure handout Discussion of Demographics reading Population Pyramid FRQ

Students will revisit the concept of population doubling time

Population growth handout

Students will learn about their island community’s population structure in order to understand the context in which the proposals are being made

Age structure handout Notebook tool

Lesson Steps in Brief Pacing

1: Framing In5

2: Read to Learn: Understand why population structure matters

20

3: Finding the Island population structure20

4: Island Fertility rate15

5: Introduce Notebook Tool for Oceans15

6: Homework: FRQ practice--

7: Framing Out5

Total time: 80

Materials:

OA_T1_L2_Age Structure Handout.docx OA_T1_L2_popgrowth.docx OA_T1_L2_Island Population Data.xlsx

Textbook Reading on Demographics: Withgott 3rd ed. pp. 214-220

OA_T1_L2_Notebook Tool.docx

Oceans, Task 1, Lesson 2: Population Demographics 1

AP Practice: OA_T1_L2_Population Pyramids FRQ.pdf

OA_T1_L2_ Global Population TFR FRQ.pdf (Optional) OA_T1_L2_Industria Pop Demographics FRQ.pdf (Optional)

Teacher Background and Planning Notes:

In this lesson students will learn about the population demographics of the island. They will use an age structure diagram to understand their island’s population trends and make comparisons with other populations.

Population demographics is an AP topic that is looped back to in the final project cycle, but in less detail than it should be covered here.

Oceans, Task 1, Lesson 2: Population Demographics 2

Lesson Steps in Detail

Oceans, Task 1, Lesson 2: Population Demographics 3

Step 1: Framing In

During MCE we looked at our local population changes to understand how it influenced community changes. For the same reason, we need to understand the population of our island. We will utilize demographic information to create an age structure diagram that allows us to predict the future changes in the populations.

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Step 2: Understanding why population structure matters

Reading on Demographics: Withgott 3rd ed. pp. 214-220

Two industries have been proposed for our island – and they both claim they will provide badly needed jobs. But do we need jobs? To answer that, we should know whether our island’s population is growing or shrinking – and what factors affect that growth.

Before: Ask students to consider their roles and knowledge of the island. What do they already know about the island’s population? Have students share out some of the facts they think are relevant to understanding whether the island’s community is growing or shrinking – and whether increasing jobs will help the situation.

o PURPOSE: Read to understand how population structure predicts future population trends, particularly for our island. We need to apply this to our island in order to understand whether our island community is growing or shrinking – and why.

During: Ask students to read in pairs to answer the reading purpose. Here are two questions to guide their reading:

1. As you read, think about which Age Pyramid (of the ones located on pp. 216-217) would best represent the island’s population structure – and what that means for its future. Be sure you can explain your reasoning behind the Age Pyramid you choose!

2. Do you think the island’s total fertility rate (TFR) and demographic transition stage would be similar to North America? Why or why not? Support your prediction with evidence from the text.

LOOPING NOTE to teachers: Students will go over demographic transition stages in more depth in Global Climate Summit.

After: Discuss the reading purpose and the two questions above. Be sure NOT to give

away any information on the island’s population, as students will work with that data next.

Ask students what data they would need to prove their predictions – and how would they get that data?

In the next activity, students will connect what they learned in this reading to an age structure diagram of the island.

Step 3: Finding the Island population structure

Students will apply what they learned about population demographics to understand what is happening to their island population. They will be using data

Oceans, Task 1, Lesson 2: Population Demographics 5

from the island population to create an age structure diagram, basically a snapshot of the population at a given time .

To do this, use OA_T1_L2_Age Structure Handout.docx and OA_T1_L2_Island Population Data.xlsx.

Step 4: Island Fertility rate

Students will discover that the island’s population is in decline, which may be caused by greater emigration than immigration (they do not have this data so will not be able to determine for sure). Knowing the island’s fertility rate will better help them understand what is going on: is it emigration or a low TFR that is impacting the population?

Review the textbook section on Total Fertility Rate (TFR)—since students have already read this section, have them look at the text again and summarize what they learned. Ask students to revisit their prediction of whether if they think the island has a high or low TFR.

Either tell students the TFR is 2.4 or provide data (that you make up) and show students how to calculate the TFR.

The goal here is for students to understand whether TFR or emigration is related to the population decline (the high TFR should make it clear that emigration is the issue).

Have a class discussion about what this implies about emigration and immigration on the island. The document OA_T1_L2_popgrowth.docx may be helpful as practice and as a review of doubling time.

Step 5: Introduce Notebook Tool for Oceans

Students have used some version of a Notebook Tool all year. Introduce this organizational approach to them, emphasizing that it will help prepare them for their final Position Paper and the final Town Council.

MODEL how to set up a section in their notebook that contains all three lenses (or you can pass out the OA_T1_L2_Notebook Tool.docx).Students will organize a Notebook Tool for each task, covering four topic-specific sections in their notebook:

1. Population & Demographics2. Ocean Overview3. Aquaculture4. Off-Shore Drilling

Oceans, Task 1, Lesson 2: Population Demographics 6

As students learn about the island, populations, oceans, aquaculture, and oil drilling, they will come across environmental, economic, and social/cultural information that will be useful to their position.

The best arguments will take into account the tensions between these (sometimes competing) aspects of sustainability. Students will also find this to be true as they work in their ally groups toward an island-wide decision.

It may not be immediately clear how what students learn will apply to either the salmon farm or the oil rig proposals. This is why you are asking them to leave space – they will come back later in the cycle to fill out the right-hand columns as they learn how things are relevant, have implications for the island, or lead them to suggest modifications.

Discuss with students what information from this reading and activity is important to add to their Field Notebook.

Model how to record the information, and add citations (needed for the final project).

Have students label their Notebook Tool for Task 1: Population.

Suggested examples from this lesson (ask students to add more):Economic:

The island’s population is declining due to emigration. If young people are leaving, the aging population of the island will affect the economy (p. 216)

Social / Cultural:An aging population on our island will also affect health care,

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families, and the elderly (who will need more care). (p. 216)

IMPLICATIONS: At this point students could add in the far right columns that this implies more jobs are needed to reduce emigration, which means both fish farm and oil rig proposals should be considered seriously.

Then give students time to work individually or in pairs to record any additional information they gathered from the reading and age-structure activities.

Step 6: Homework or In-class FRQ practice

As homework or for the last part of class, hand out the released AP Free Response Question on population age structure pyramids like they just created for their island. This document is OA_T1_L2_Population Pyramids FRQ.pdf.

There are other optional population related FRQs for you to use in the lesson folder.

Step 7: Framing Out:

Now that we understand why our population is in decline, we need to come together as a community and set some common goals as we move forward.

Teacher Notes on this lesson:

Oceans, Task 1, Lesson 2: Population Demographics 8