Aon Terrorism and Political Violence 2013 Mapd20tdhwx2i89n1.cloudfront.net/image/upload/t_attachment/aou6ep4... · South Asia, Asia Paciifc 8 Latin America 10 Aon and Risk Advisory

Produced in collaboration with The Risk Advisory Group plc | 1 1 | Aon Risk Solutions | Global Broking Centre

Aon Terrorism and Political Violence 2013 Map

Regional overviews

Aon Risk Solutions

ContentPerils by region 3

Middle East, North Africa and Africa 4

Western Europe, Central Europe and Asia 6

South Asia, Asia Paciifc 8

Latin America 10

Aon and Risk Advisory Group - Map methodology 12

2013 Terrorism and Political Violence Map 14

Produced in collaboration with The Risk Advisory Group plc | 3

Perils per region

Region Terrorism and Sabotage Riots, Strikes, Civil Commotion, Malicious

Damage

Insurrection, Revolution, Rebellion, Mutiny Coup

d'etat, Civil War and War Africa 42.9% 89.8% 57.1%

East Asia and Pacific 18.8% 53.1% 37.5%

Europe and Central Asia 51.7% 89.7% 27.6%

Latin America and Caribbean 22.2% 63.9% 13.9%

Middle East and North Africa 85.0% 85.0% 50.0%

South Asia 75.0% 100.0% 75.0%

The 2013 Terrorism and Political Violence data shows:

� 11 upgrades (increased risk ratings) including Egypt, Jordan and Argentina

� 19 downgrades (risk ratings lowered) including the UK, Germany and Italy

� In 2013, 44% of countries have an identified risk of terrorism, with the worst

affected being Nigeria, Mali, Libya, Syria, Egypt, Yemen, Iraq, Pakistan, Afghanistan

and Somalia.

� Europe has the most positive outlook, with 47% of all the lowered risk ratings this

year, reflecting receding civil unrest associated with the financial and economic

crises. Limited incidents of terrorism outside of Greece and Northern Ireland also

accounted for lowered risk scores.

� The lingering after-effects of the Arab Spring on regional security and stability

remain evident. The Middle East is the most unstable region with 64% of countries

attaining high or severe risk ratings, reflecting terrorism, unrest and conflict risks.

� The Middle East and North Africa witnessed the highest proportion of countries

with a terrorism and sabotage peril at 85%.

� All of the countries in South Asia received a riots, strikes and civil commotion

peril, while Latin America and the Caribbean is the region that received the lowest

proportion of insurrection, revolution and war perils.

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The 10th edition of the Terrorism and Political Violence Map is available

To access the interactive and online version or to download the PDF version, please visit our website: www.aon.com/terrorismmap


Rising threats worldwide opposed to decreasing vigilance from companies

The aim of Aon Terrorism and Political Violence Map is about understanding where companies have risks and the affects and impacts of these threats. Though the threat is rising, general trends from Aon consulting team demonstrate companies moving to emerging countries where terrorism and political violence are latent or present show less concern about these risks.

The team observes that while major shocking attacks or events such as September 11 or London attacks, Arab spring or latest events in North Africa, are still in memories, the healing and recovering process is almost fully completed and integrated. As a result, companies’ vigilance is lessened and Terrorism and Political Violence are perceived as a minor risk, which is less relevant outside of these crisis periods.

Western countries might not be as exposed as emerging countries overall, they become exposed and vulnerable targets when in a will to expand they move their infrastructure and people to emerging countries.

Amena’s attack in January 2013 demonstrated how regime instability and border insecurity in the Sahel and Mahgreb have aggravated the terrorism threat in Algeria.

In West Africa, the Islamist militant takeover of Mali in 2012 and subsequent French led-military operation in the country has increased the terrorism threat against Western interests in the region.



Middle East & North AfricaThe risk of political violence and terrorism stayed at the same levels in most MENA countries in the past year, but increased Egypt back to Severe.

Socio-economic complaints remained the main drivers of unrest, along with frustrations about pre and post-Arab spring governments’ slow pace of reform, particularly in Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Tunisia, the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia and Yemen.

The Syrian civil war was the main risk factor in the Levant during 2012, affecting risks and stability in all of Syria’s neighbours, but particularly in Lebanon. The conflict also attracted jihadist fighters from across the MENA region, while Iraq continued to see almost daily terrorist attacks.

Other regions where militants were able to exploit weak state control include Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula, Anbar province and eastern Libya. The January 2013 in Amenas attack demonstrated how regime instability and border insecurity in the Sahel and Mahgreb have aggravated the terrorism threat in Algeria.

Africa The threat of political violence declined in several African countries this year, with relatively peaceful elections setting a precedent in Kenya, Angola, Sierra Leone and Ghana. Zimbabwe saw a lowered risk rating after the successful referendum approval of a new constitution, and power-sharing deal prompted the EU to suspend sanctions.

Nigeria remains a severe risk country due to protests, political violence, and the terrorism and kidnapping threat from Boko Haram, Ansaru and militants in the Niger Delta. The rebel coup in Central African Republic in March 2013 destabilised the country, and increased the risk from high to severe.

In West Africa, the Islamist militant takeover of Mali in 2012 and subsequent French led-military operation in the country has increased the terrorism threat against Western interests in the region. Mali sustained a severe risk profile from the previous year following a March 2012 coup and Islamist militant seizure of two-thirds of the country. Due to Nigerien military support for the Mali intervention and the subsequent region-wide increased terrorism threat, the risk profile of Niger increased from high to severe for 2012.



Western Europe and North AmericaLowered risk ratings in the United Kingdom, Portugal, Italy and Germany this year reflect receding levels of civil unrest in some countries despite the ongoing effects of the Eurozone crisis.

Large-scale protests in Spain, as well as a spate of anarchist terrorist acts and strikes in Greece, underscore how anti-austerity measures are continuing to fuel civil unrest and terrorism risks in southern Europe particularly.

In North America, both the United States and Canada remain Low risk countries this year. However, a threat of terrorism persists in the US, as highlighted by the recent Boston bombings, while several violent protests in Canada in 2012 mean it retains an unrest peril.

Eastern Europe and Central AsiaThe terrorism threat in the region remains primarily severe in the North Caucasus, where the Russian authorities continued to fight an Islamist insurgency over the past year. Despite an increase in counterterrorism operations from the second half of 2012 onwards, the attack rate has increased, particularly in Dagestan and Ingushetia.

In Turkey, there has been a reduction in terrorist violence in recent months. In March, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) declared a ceasefire and said it would retreat from Turkey to northern Iraq. But as long as armed PKK militants are present in southeastern Turkey, the threat from terrorism remains. In addition, Turkey faces a threat from the leftist extremist group DHKP/C, which mounted several successful attacks in Turkey’s major cities, including an attack on the US Embassy and the Prime Minister’s office.

Civil unrest occurred across Eastern Europe over the past year. In Czech Republic, frustration with the government over spending cuts initiated one of the largest demonstrations since the fall of communism while austerity measures also led to a series of protests in Romania, Bulgaria, Slovenia and Ukraine.

Anti-government protests in Russia decreased in the second half of 2012 compared to 2011 and the first half of 2012, but still took place frequently. The Central Asian countries remained largely free from public dissent, although several anti-government protests took place in Kyrgyzstan, but of much smaller scale than in Eastern Europe.

8 | Aon Risk Solutions | Global Broking Centre Produced in collaborarion with Risk Advisory | 9

Large-scale protests in Spain, as well as a spate of anarchist terrorist acts and strikes in Greece, underscore how anti-austerity measures are continuing to fuel civil unrest and terrorism risks in southern Europe particularly.

Despite an increase in counterterrorism operations from the second half of 2012 onwards, the attack rate has increased, particularly in Dagestan and Ingushetia.


South AsiaThe past year witnessed several shifts in terrorist violence, but activity was predominately concentrated in Afghanistan, Pakistan and India. The ISAF drawdown in Afghanistan has slowly shifted the attack patterns of the Afghan Taliban to focus more on government targets. In Pakistan, the Pakistani Taliban’s presence spread beyond strongholds in the northwest to include Karachi.

The last year has also seen a substantial increase in sectarian violence and attacks in the country. Civil unrest has also been at elevated levels across the region over various issues. Particularly in Pakistan, India and Bangladesh, hundreds of thousands of people violently demonstrated against corruption, religious persecution and state impunity as those countries approach a period of transition.

There is a risk of political and civil unrest as elections approach for several countries in the region.

East Asia and the PacificGeopolitical trends were the most notable driver of risk in the region, as long-runningdisputes over territory in the South and East China seas flared up last year, and ten-sions escalated on the Korean Peninsula in the early months of 2013. Hawkish rhetoric, coupled with a high level of militarisation in the region, meant that the risk of escalation around these disputes has persisted since last year’s map.

These trends mean that a Conflict peril remains in place for China, North Korea, South Korea and the Philippines, but was also added to Japan for the 2013 map.

The East Asia and Pacific region remained the key driver of global economic growth in 2012, and the domestic risk trends in the region have remained broadly stable from last year. Despite high levels of economic growth, all the countries in the Southeast Asia sub-region, excluding Singapore, maintained an Unrest peril, and China remains the most protest-affected country in the world.

This year, there were improvements in two countries in the East Asia and Pacific region, as East Timor and Papua New Guinea - both previously affected by high levels of political instability and violence around elections - peacefully conducted polls in 2012.

Australia and New ZealandWith no major incidents of terrorism or political violence in 2012, both Australia and New Zealand retain a Negligible rating this year, putting them among the most stable of Western countries.

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Civil unrest has been at elevated levels particularly in Pakistan, India and Bangladesh, hundreds of thousands of people violently demonstrated against corruption, religious persecution and state impunity as those countries approach a period of transition.

A conflict peril remains in place for China, North Korea, South Korea and the Philippines, but was also added to Japan for the 2013 map.


The risk of civil unrest has persisted throughout the region since last year’s map.

Countries such as Peru and Paraguay still have a residual threat of terrorism from active guerrillas.



Latin America and the Caribbean While the extent of political violence in Latin America continues to be broadly moderate in comparison with other emerging markets, the risk of civil unrest has persisted throughout the region since last year’s map.

Violent protests and incidents of sabotage increased in Argentina and continued in Peru, while large protests in Chile, Panama, the Dominican Republic and Mexico have sustained heightened risk ratings.

Although the threat of terrorism in Latin America continues to be moderate, and the Colombian government launched a new peace process with the FARC, there is still a high threat of terrorist attacks in Colombia. In addition, countries such as Peru and Paraguay still have a residual threat of terrorism from active rebels.

While most countries in the region are politically stable, Venezuela stands out as an exception, as well as Honduras.


Terrorism Map MethodologyAs in previous years, we have assigned each country a score starting at negligible, low, medium, high, severe. The scores reflect the severity of risk in each state on the day that the map is launched.

The scores are retrospective and based upon data collected by Terrorism Tracker and World Aware, and consultations with Risk Advisory’s regional experts. They are not intended to predict global events or future threats.

The scores are weighted to accommodate a wide range of political risk and security variables. These include: 1. Terrorism and sabotage 2. Riots, strikes, civil commotions, and malicious damage 3. Insurrection, revolution, rebellion, mutiny, coup d’état, war and civil war.

The terrorism and sabotage peril is based upon the activity of known groups and networks operating in a country, in collaboration with their stated aims, operational capabilities and historical choice of targets.

The riot, strikes, civil commotions and malicious damage peril identifies countries that have recently witnessed bouts of violent and non-violent civil unrest.

The insurrection, revolution, rebellion, mutiny, coup d’état, war and civil war peril is based upon our analysis of economic, social, and political conditions that have and may continue to cause instability and regime change.

The aggregate of these variables reflects the country’s total score and colour on the map.

The three groupings above are represented on the map by perils which directly relate to Aon insurance products:

� Aon-T1: Terrorism and Sabotage � Aon-PV1: Riots, Strikes, Civil Commotion and Malicious Damage � Aon-PV1+W: Insurrection, Revolution, Rebellion, Mutiny, Coup d’Etat, War

and Civil War.


Risk Advisory Group Aon’s Terrorism and Political Violence Map is produced in collaboration with Risk Advisory Group.

Risk Advisory is a leading independent global risk management consultancy providing intelligence, investigation and security services to clients that include many of the world’s leading corporate entities, financial institutions and law firms.

Risk Advisory helps clients to navigate increasingly complex regulatory, compliance and security environments in some of the most challenging jurisdictions.

The Risk Advisory political risk and security intelligence practice has over a decade of experience providing high quality and client focused intelligence services to a wide range of sectors, including banking and financial services, oil and gas, extractives, manufacturing, transport and logistics and insurance.

In partnership with Aon, Risk Advisory also produces Terrorism Tracker, providing a web-based global terrorism database and business focused analysis on terrorism threats.

For more information, please visit www.riskadvisory.net

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Registered office 8 Devonshire Square, London EC2M 4PL

The information contained herein and the statements expressed are of a general nature and are not intended to address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. Although we endeavor to provide accurate and timely informationm there can be no guarantee that such information is accurate as of the date it is received or that it will continue to be ccurate in the future. No one should act on such information without appropriate professional advice after a thorough examination of the particular situation.Aon plc, May 2013. All rights reserved ©.

For more information, please contact:

Terrorism and Political ViolenceNeil Henderson+44 (0)20 7086 4361 [email protected]

MarketingPatricia KImwanga+44 (0)207 086 [email protected]

UK media relationsSarah Booker+44.(0)207 086 [email protected]

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Aon Terrorism and Political Violence 2013 Mapd20tdhwx2i89n1.cloudfront.net/image/upload/t_attachment/aou6ep4... · South Asia, Asia Paciifc 8 Latin America 10 Aon and Risk Advisory