“Knowledge is power.”

Francis Bacon

PAF 101Module 5, Lecture 1

Class Agenda•Announcements • Intro to Module 5•Prince System•Assignment

Challah for Hunger BakeWednesday 11/08/17 5:00-8:00

Thursday 11/09/17 5:00-8:00@Hillel

clshevri@syr.edu

Fireside Chat- Featuring Sarah

Dale Carnegie Principles

• Don't criticize, condemn or complain.

• Give honest and sincere appreciation.

• Arouse in the other person an eager want.

• Become genuinely interested in other people.

• Remember that a man's name is to him the sweetest and most important sound in any language.

• Be a good listener. Encourage others to talk about themselves.

• Talk in the terms of the other man’s interest.

• Make the other person feel important and do it sincerely.

• Avoid arguments.

• Never tell someone they are wrong

• If you're wrong, admit it quickly and emphatically.

• Begin in a friendly way.

• Start with questions the other person will answer yes to. Let the other person do the talking.

• Let the other person feel the idea is his/hers.

• Try honestly to see things from the other person's

point of view.

• Sympathize with the other person.

• Appeal to noble motives.

• Dramatize your ideas.

• Throw down a challenge.

• Begin with praise and honest appreciation.

• Call attention to other people's mistakes indirectly.

• Talk about your own mistakes first.

• Ask questions instead of giving direct orders.

• Let the other person save face.

• Praise every improvement.

• Give them a fine reputation to live up to

• Encourage them by making their faults seem easy to correct.

• Make the other person happy about doing what you suggest.

Community Service Reminder• The Final Community Service Form is

due in class on 12/4• Use the online form on the 101

website, located in the Service section.

• If you have any questions, please email Sarah at sahamilt@syr.edu

Integrating the Groups•From 19 groups to 9 groups •Top groups choose first, you will have 20 seconds to make a decision

•Listen carefully to the instructions before moving around or there will be a crisis

Group # Points

5 37

12 36

1 34

8 34

17 30

14 29

3 27

7 27

9 25

16 25

11 24

10 23

15 23

13 22

19 22

2 21

4 21

6 21

18 21

Competition PointsWinners

Losers

As of 11/08/2017

Competition Points

New Group Old GroupABCDEFGHI

FG

D

HBC

EI A

Follow Along with the Module 5 Exercises

Select a policy from your previous modules or not so you can predict its

chances of being implemented

Policy Triangle

Societal

Problems

A

Players

B

Public

PolicyC

The Prince System

What is the Prince System?

A Method for Forecasting Decisions and Coming

Up with Strategies to Get What You Want

Some Users of the System•U.S. Department of State•C.I.A.•U.S. Army Corps of Engineers•U.S. Forestry Service•Diebold Automated Office Programs•American Library Association•Political Risk Services

Step 1

Describing the Policy to be Implemented

Example: Get A New Loan

The Prince System

Family Issues•Get a New Loan•Pay for Children’s Education•Buy Vacation Home for Parents

Step 2Identify Key Players

Example:

Father, Mother, Son, Daughter

The Prince System

Step 2 RevisedFull List of Key Players

Example:Father, Mother, Son,

Daughter, Creditors, Grandfather

The Prince System

Step 3 Estimate Position (-5 to +5)Players PositionFather +5Mother - 4Son +2Daughter +2Creditors 0Grandfather - 5

Total = 0

The Prince System

Players Position X Power = Prince Score

Father +5 X 3 = +15

Mother - 4 X 2 = - 8

Son +2 X 1 = +2

Daughter +2 X 1 = +2

Creditors 0 X 5 = (5)

Grandfather - 5 X 5 = - 25

Step 4 Estimate Power (1 to 5)

Total = -14

Step 5 Estimate Priority (1 to 5)Players Position X Power X Priority = Prince

ScoreFather +5 X 3 X 5 = +75

Mother - 4 X 2 X 5 = - 40

Son +2 X 1 X 1 = +2

Daughter +2 X 1 X 4 = +8

Creditors 0 X 5 X 2 = (10)

Grandfather -5 X 5 X 3 = - 75

Total = -30

Step 6 Calculate Probabilities

Step 2:Players

Step 3:Position

X Step 4:Power

X Step 5:Priority

= Step 6a:Prince Score

Father +5 X 3 X 5 = +75

Mother - 4 X 2 X 5 = - 40Son +2 X 1 X 1 = +2

Daughter +2 X 1 X 4 = +8

Creditors 0 X 5 X 2 = (10)

Grandfather -5 X 5 X 3 = - 75

Step 1: Action to be Predicted Get a New Loan

=90210 = .43

Sum of Positive Scores and One Half of Neutral ScoresSum of Absolute Values of All Scores, IncludingNeutral Scores

Strategy ToolHostility-Friendship Chart

Player Father Mother Son Daughter Creditors Grandfather

Father x + - + - -

Mother - x + - - +

Son - + x - - +

Daughter + - - x - +

Creditors + + + + x +

Grandfather - + + + 0 x

Prince ChartStep 2:Players

Step 3:Position(+5 to –5)

X Step 4:Power(1 to 5)

X Step 5:Priority(1 to 5)

= Step 6a:Prince Score

Father +5 X 3 X 5 = +75

Mother - 4 X 2 X 5 = - 40Son +2 X 1 X 1 = +2Daughter +2 X 1 X 4 = +8Creditors +2 X 5 X 2 = +20

Grandfather +2 X 5 X 3 = +30South DakotaSavings

+5 X 5 X 2 = +50

Step 1:Policy to be Implemented Get a New Loan

Sum of Positive Scores and One Half of Neutral ScoresSum of Absolute Values of All Scores, IncludingNeutral Scores

= 185225

= .82

Prince Analysis Steps

1. Identify Necessary Actions

2. Identify Key Players

3. Estimate Position (-5 to +5)

4. Estimate Power (1 to 5)

5. Estimate Priority (1 to 5)

6. Calculate Probabilities

7. Formulate Prince Strategies

Ex. 9.1

Ex. 9.2

Ex. 9.3

Ex. 9.4

Chapter 10

Step 1: Choose a Policy (9.1) •Does not have to be related to previous work, but it is advised.

•Must address the correct geographic area.

Assignment•Read Chapter 9 by next class!•Get your community service hours completed!

•Sit with your new group for the rest of the semester

•Module 5 Due December 8