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Moscow Times Conference on commercial real estate. Correction of market. Potential of Russia.
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The R
eal E
sta
te M
ark
et
in C
risis
Marc
h 2
009
Re
al E
sta
te M
ark
et
in C
risis
An
tho
ny S
elm
an
Dir
ecto
r fo
r In
ve
stm
en
ts &
Ca
pita
l M
ark
ets
at
Bla
ckw
oo
d
Pre
vio
usly
Cu
sh
ma
n &
Wa
ke
fie
ld
Clie
nt
So
lutio
ns C
&W
Am
ste
rda
m
Fo
rtre
ss E
uro
pe
Acq
uis
itio
ns f
or
the
Ne
the
rla
nd
s a
nd
Ge
rma
ny
CB
RE
LA
C M
iam
i
Inve
stm
en
ts L
atin
Am
eri
ca
Re
al E
sta
te M
ark
et
in C
risis
To
da
y
Cri
sis
in
th
e m
ark
et
Off
ice
s
Ho
tels
Re
sid
en
tial R
esivs
Co
mm
erc
ial
Inve
stm
en
ts
Glo
ba
l C
on
text
Fo
reig
n D
ire
ct
Inve
stm
en
ts
Inve
sto
r’s C
on
sid
era
tio
ns
Re
al E
sta
te M
ark
et
in C
risis
De
pre
ssio
n?
Co
nsid
ere
da
ra
reb
ut
extr
em
efo
rmo
fre
ce
ssio
n,
a d
ep
ressio
nis
ch
ara
cte
rize
db
ya
bn
orm
alin
cre
ase
sin
un
em
plo
ym
en
t, r
estr
ictio
no
f
cre
dit,
sh
rin
kin
go
utp
ut
an
din
ve
stm
en
t, n
um
ero
us
ba
nkru
ptc
ies,
red
uce
da
mo
un
tso
ftr
ad
ea
nd
co
mm
erc
e,
as
we
lla
sh
ighly
vo
latile
rela
tive
cu
rre
ncy
va
lue
fluctu
atio
ns,
mo
stly
de
va
lua
tio
ns.
Pri
ce
de
fla
tio
no
rh
yp
eri
nfla
tio
na
rea
lso
co
mm
on
ele
me
nts
.
Th
e W
orl
d:
Pro
ba
bly
so
on
Ru
ssia
: 1
Qu
art
er
of
ne
ga
tive
GD
P
Oth
er
fast
gro
win
g e
me
rgin
g m
ark
ets
: M
ayb
e a
little
be
tte
r
Re
aso
ns:
Co
mm
od
ity b
ase
d e
co
no
my –
oth
er
facto
rs..
Re
al E
sta
te M
ark
et
Ru
ssia
10
ye
ars
of
gro
wth
–a
ve
rag
e 7
% G
DP
De
ma
nd
fo
r a
ll kin
ds o
f sp
ace
De
ma
nd
fo
r q
ua
lity
De
ma
nd
De
ma
nd
De
ma
nd
Po
ten
tia
l fo
r g
row
th –
fun
da
me
nta
ls
Ru
ssia
po
pu
lation
14
0 m
To
tal G
DP
sm
alle
r th
an
Ita
ly
1,2
37,0
00
India
12
1,5
64,0
00
Can
ada
11
1,6
65,0
00
Bra
zil
10
1,6
83,0
00
Spai
n9
1,7
57,0
00
Russ
ia8
2,3
99,0
00
Ital
y7
2,7
87,0
00
Unit
ed K
ingdom
6
2,9
87,0
00
Fra
nce
5
3,8
18,0
00
Ger
man
y4
4,2
22,0
00
Chin
a (P
RC
)3
4,8
44,0
00
Japan
2
14,3
30,0
00
Unit
ed S
tate
s1
18,9
30,0
00
Euro
pean U
nio
n
78,3
60,0
00
World
GD
P 2
00
8
Off
ice
Ma
rke
t P
red
ictio
n B
efo
re C
risis
:
Mo
sc
ow
. R
en
tal
rate
s a
nd
pre
dic
ted
ra
tes.
Off
ice
Ma
rke
t B
efo
re C
risis
Mo
sc
ow
. R
en
tal
rate
s.
Be
fore
cri
sis
Off
ice
Ma
rke
t in
Cri
sis
Inse
cu
rity
in
the
ma
rket
am
on
g a
ll p
laye
rs.
Occu
pie
rs. L
and
lord
s. In
ve
sto
rs a
nd
De
ve
lope
rs.
Nobo
dy m
ove
s.
Fe
w t
ran
sa
ction
s.
Ve
ry f
ew
la
rge
tra
nsa
ction
s.
Sub
lea
se
ma
rke
t.
Ove
rre
action
.
End
of
stu
pid
com
pe
tition
.
Lo
ng te
rm h
igh
ren
ts c
an
be
ju
stifie
d.
Ce
ntr
al
Mo
sc
ow
Cla
ss
A.
US
D 5
00
.
Ou
tsid
e c
en
tra
l M
osco
w C
lass
B.
US
D 3
00
.
Ho
tel a
ve
rag
e a
cco
mo
da
tio
nco
st
(in
ru
ble
s p
er
nig
ht)
de
ce
mb
er
20
08
0
10 0
00
20 0
00
30 0
00
40 0
00
50 0
00
60 0
00
2*3*
4*5*
min
max
Ho
tel
Pro
jec
ts a
nn
ou
nc
ed
in
2008
Cri
sis
Roo
m r
ate
s d
ow
n 8
%
Occu
pan
cy f
rom
75%
to
70%
Ne
w p
rope
rtie
s c
om
e o
n t
he
ma
rke
t
Re
sid
en
tial M
ark
et
4 0
00
4 5
00
5 0
00
5 5
00
6 0
00
6 5
00
7 0
00
7 5
00
Ja
n.0
8F
ev
.08
Ma
r.0
8A
pr.
08
Ma
y.0
8J
un.0
8J
ul.
08
Au
g.
08
Se
pt.
08
Oct.
08
No
v.
08
De
c.
08
Ja
n.0
9F
ev
.09
prim
ary
mark
et
secondary
mark
et
Pri
ces
dyn
am
ics
in
pri
ma
ry a
nd
sec
on
da
ry m
ark
ets
of
Mo
sc
ow
, $
pe
r s
q.
m
Re
sid
en
tial m
ark
et
Elit
e s
eg
me
nt
Ave
rag
e p
rice
s d
yn
am
ics
, e
lite
se
gm
en
t, M
os
co
w, $
pe
r s
q.
m
$20 3
00
per
sq. m
17 0
00
18 0
00
19 0
00
20 0
00
21 0
00
22 0
00
23 0
00
24 0
00
Jan
.08
Fev
.08
Mar.
08
Ap
r.0
8M
ay
.08
Jun.0
8Jul.08
Aug.
08
Sept.
08
Oct.
08
Nov
. 08
De
c.
08
Jan.0
9F
ev
.09
Re
sid
en
tial m
ark
et
vs
Co
mm
erc
ial M
ark
et
Resid
ential tr
ansactions d
o take p
lace
Dis
counts
in b
oth
resid
ential and c
om
merc
ial
Larg
est dis
counts
in r
esid
ential are
non p
rim
e
Larg
est dis
counts
com
merc
ial als
o in p
rim
e
Resi busin
ess c
lass s
uffers
. C
om
merc
ial A
cla
ss s
uffers
Glo
ba
l C
on
text
Co
mp
are
ma
rke
ts
Co
mp
are
city f
un
da
me
nta
ls
Gro
ss r
eg
ion
al p
rod
uct
Mo
sco
w
Lo
nd
on
Pa
ris
7,4
53
620
00
5,5
83
0P
AR
IS
12
,510
011
28
80
11
10
00
MO
SC
OW
6,7
560
5,7
570
05
55
0M
ILA
N
6,5
91
,26
,25
12
36
648
0M
AD
RID
714
16
,75
26
05
5,2
510
57
LO
ND
ON
769
,65
,75
15
60
5,4
44
4F
RA
NK
FU
RT
6,7
560
5,5
18
00
627
5B
RU
SS
EL
S
6,7
592
,55
,511
55
5,0
733
5A
MS
TE
RD
AM
Pri
me
yie
lds
%P
rim
e r
en
ts€
/sq
m/
yr
Pri
me
yie
lds
%
Pri
me
re
nts
€/s
q m
/ yr
Pri
me
yie
lds
%
Pri
me
re
nts
€
/sq
m/
yr
WA
RE
HO
US
ES
HO
PP
ING
CE
NT
RE
OF
FIC
ES
GE
OG
RA
PH
IC
LO
CA
TIO
N
TO
TA
L R
ET
UR
N T
AB
LE
, fe
b 2
009
Glo
ba
l C
on
text
GD
P 2
00
8
1,2
37,0
00
India
12
1,5
64,0
00
Can
ada
11
1,6
65,0
00
Bra
zil
10
1,6
83,0
00
Spai
n9
1,7
57,0
00
Russ
ia8
2,3
99,0
00
Ital
y7
2,7
87,0
00
Unit
ed K
ingdom
6
2,9
87,0
00
Fra
nce
5
3,8
18,0
00
Ger
man
y4
4,2
22,0
00
Chin
a (P
RC
)3
4,8
44,0
00
Japan
2
14,3
30,0
00
Unit
ed S
tate
s1
18,9
30,0
00
Euro
pean U
nio
n
78,3
60,0
00
World
Co
mp
are
ma
rke
ts
Co
mp
are
co
un
try f
un
da
me
nta
ls
Re
al E
sta
te M
ark
et
in C
risis
Yie
lds t
od
ay
-No
de
als
No
yie
lds
-Off
ers
se
t th
e m
ark
et?
-Ma
rke
t se
ts t
he
ma
rke
t?
Inve
stm
en
t M
ark
et,
a d
eta
iled
lo
ok
Re
tail
54
%
Ho
tel
7%
Wa
reh
ou
se
17
%
Off
ice
22
%
0
50
0
10
00
15
00
20
00
25
00
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
US
D m
ln
Fo
reig
n D
ire
ct
Inve
stm
en
t
20
07
5
5 b
illio
n
20
08
60
bill
ion
20
09
4
0 b
illio
n?
Fo
reig
n I
nve
stm
en
t in
to r
ea
l e
sta
te
20
07
7
bill
ion
20
08
6 b
illio
n
20
09
1
bill
ion
?
Inve
stm
en
t M
ark
et,
Wh
at
inve
sto
rs lo
ok a
t..
Access t
o f
ina
ncin
g in
Ea
ste
rn E
uro
pe
Se
ttin
g t
he
yie
lds
Ma
rke
t. F
irst
de
al. E
ve
ryth
ing
co
me
s b
ack t
o life
?
Ru
ssia
n E
co
no
my
-Oil
pri
ce
. U
SD
20
pe
r b
arr
el sce
na
rio
-Re
se
rve
s (
19
98
–1
2 b
/ 2
00
8 –
60
0 b
/ 2
00
9 2
00
b)
-Sto
ck m
ark
et.
70
% d
ow
n
Oth
er
facto
rs Ge
op
olit
ical –
Ge
org
ia U
SD
20
b O
ut
in A
ug
ust
Re
gio
nal in
ve
stm
en
ts
CIS
Ukra
ine
is h
urt
ing
Glo
ba
l F
DI A
sia
mo
re a
ttra
ctive
no
w?
Em
erg
ing
Ma
rke
ts r
eco
ve
r fa
ste
r?
Ab
ou
t B
lackw
oo
d
Bla
ckw
oo
d is M
osco
w’s
no
1 r
ea
l e
sta
te s
erv
ice
s f
irm
. F
ou
nd
ed
in
Mo
sco
w in
19
91
Bla
ckw
oo
d p
rovid
es a
cce
ss t
o t
he
lo
ca
l m
ark
et
an
d c
om
bin
es lo
cal b
usin
ess
pra
ctice
with
in
tern
atio
na
l in
du
str
y e
xp
eri
en
ce
. B
lackw
oo
d’s
30
0 p
lus
pro
fessio
na
ls c
ove
r e
ve
ry a
sp
ect
of
the
re
al e
sta
te in
du
str
y a
dvis
ing
in
ve
sto
rs,
de
ve
lop
ers
as w
ell
as la
ndlo
rds a
nd
te
na
nts
. B
lackw
oo
d p
rovid
es a
wid
e a
rra
y o
f
rea
l e
sta
te s
erv
ice
s f
rom
re
se
arc
h,
co
nsu
ltin
g a
nd
str
ate
gic
pla
nn
ing
to
tra
nsa
ctio
n m
an
ag
em
en
t a
nd
fu
nd
ma
na
ge
me
nt.
