Answer to the Ultimate Question of - Tervetuloa Thomas... · 2019-11-22 · Answer to the Ultimate Question of Life, the Universe, and Everything The energy eco system: ... F-gas

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Answer to the Ultimate Question of

Life, the Universe, and Everything

The energy eco system:

habitat for heat pumps? An EU perspective | SULPU | HELSINKI | 21.11.2019

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Reality check: What is a heat pump?



4 The energy eco system:


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The development curve of

heat pump recognition rejection



reco

gn

itio

n

tHP?

OK,

maybe

geothermal?

energy efficicient vs

renwable

HP renewable

and efficient .......... but only residential

ok, also industrial

district heating? Seriously?

Well, ok, HP work, but

too expensive ...

... Maybe for new builds, but

not suitable for renovation

HP use too much electricity

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habitat for heat pumps? An EU perspective

Thomas Nowak

Secretary General EHPA

[email protected]

+49 176 6320 1140

twitter: ehpabrussels

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The urgency to act … has just increased



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«The main headlines from this

year‘s stats review is that both

global energy demand and

carbon emissions grew in 2018

at their fastest rate in 7-8 years»

Spencer Dale, Chief Economist BP

Reality: Energy demand is growing, so are CO2 emissions (+2%)





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Source: Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy – Energy Transition in Europe Across Power, Heat, Transport and Desalination Sectors

100% renewable heating is possible – with heat pumps



70%

http://energywatchgroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/EWG-LUT_Full-Study_Energy-Transition-Europe.pdf

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The electrification of industrial heat



Approx. 27% in 2050



Energy efficiency

directive

Energy efficiency on systems level (+calculations for HP)

+

Comprehensive assessments on heating and cooling

+

Energy performance of

buildings directive

New builds, renovation strategy + modernisation of H&C

+

Smart buildings +

Renewable energy

directive

Definitions: renewable energy / renewable cooling

Sectorial target for renewable heating / cooling

+Governance Regulation

National energy and climate plans (NECP)

Improved data situation

+

Electricity market design Flexible tariffs, smart grids

F-gas regulation Reduction of F-Gas related emissions + -

European Green Deal

Transition towards a zero-CO2 emission society

More ambitious CO2 – emission target

Price for CO2-emission

Cle

an

en

erg

y 4

all

Eu

rop

ea

ns

pa

ck

ag

e

If not

successful

Long term strategy fossil molecules ➔ green molecules (H2/CH4) or biomass

++

++

++

++

+

+

+

--

--+

National legislation F-gas taxation, certification requirements, standards + -

+ -Ecodesign regulations Revision of lot 1&2, 10 and 33

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< 1% annual increase of

renewable share

Total final energy demand for heating / cooling | EU28

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/de/web/energy/data/shares



1st RES D RES D II

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• RE heating/cooling, acknowledge waste heat

• Min. share of RES in buildings

• Annual increase of RE heating/cooling (Art. 23)

• More power to prosumers (heat & electricity)

• Upward revision

• Part of national energy & climate plans (NECP‘s)

+1.3pp

2023

Renewable Energy DirectiveHeat pumps use renewable energy from air / water / soil, waste energy treated similarly



renewable

32

%

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indicative

Energy efficiency directive (2012/27/EU, 2018/2002/EU) Heat pumps are the most efficient technology for heating and cooling



• Obligation to reduce annual

final energy demand (Art. 7)– 1.5% annually until 2020

– 0.8% annually until 2030

– Specific rules for HP

• New primary energy

factor: 2.1

• Comprehensive

Assessments on H&C due

by 31.12.2020 (Annex VIII)

energy efficiency

32.5

%

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Reduction of CO2 emissionsHeat pumps are one of the lowest-emission technologies



CO2

50/55

%“I want Europe to become the first climate

neutral continent in the world by 2050. To make

this happen, we must take bold steps together ... .

A two-step approach is needed to reduce

CO2 emissions by 2030 by 50, if not 55%.“ President-elect Ursula von der Leyen

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And what are potentially „green solutions“



Heating/

cooling

Transport

Electricity

Smart

electrification

heatpumps

hybrids

direct

green gas

biomass

Waste heat

solarthermal

Direct geothermal

Shares are for illustration only!

neither expacted or agreed by EHPA

biofuels

• Central/DHC

• storage

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market growth ‘05 – ’18 | HP stock2018: 11.8 mill. installed



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Growth of sanitary hot water heat pumps

2018: 1 million units open the floor for HP deployment



sta

ts.e

hpa.o

rg

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The EU leaderboard of annual HP sales 2018



Huge untapped potential

in large

heating and cooling

markets ...

sta

ts.e

hpa.o

rg

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Heat pump benefits 2018Based on 11.8 million heat pumps installed



Renewable energy

CO2

savings

Final

energy

savings128TWh

32.8Mt

Demand response

potential Up to3.2

TWh

Clean air163TWh

No PM at point of

operation

22

5.6 million

boilers

1.1 mill. heating heat

pumps (19.6%)

7.8 million

sanitary hot water

161 000 dedicated hot

water heat pumps (2%)

• Use of fossil energy for heating dominates in Europe!

• To decarbonise heating and cooling heat pumps are a perfect option

Industrial

heating and

cooling?

Heat Pumps in the EU heating system 2018



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Huge untapped potential for

Heat Pumps in all Europe

Units sold per 1000 households in 2018



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If Norway was everywhere ...



• Potential of an increase in

sales by factor 8-10

• Is the value chain ready?

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The glass ceiling

• Energy/price ratio• Energy taxation• No CO2-price signal• Fossil fuel subsidies• “We can’t electrify everything” argument (+ debated role of H2 / eMethane)The energy eco system:


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Relative prices: electric power vs. gas in Europa



Relative prices: electric power

vs. gas in Europa

High factors

=High operative

costs for heat

pumps



htt

p:/

/ww

w.lo

bb

yin

gn

et.

eu

/

28

130 Members

Heat pump manufacturers

Component manufacturers

National associations

Consultants

Research & test institutes

22countries

represented

EHPARue d Arlon 63 - Brussels

Vision

In a fully decarbonised

Europe, heat-pump

technologies are the

number one heating

and cooling solution,

being a core enabler

for a renewable,

sustainable and smart

energy system.

The European Heat Pump Association aisbl / founded 2000





EHPA secretariat

• Thomas NowakSecretary General

• Maja De Noyette

Senior Office Manager

• Oliver JungEU Affairs manager

• Stella BenfattoPolicy Officer

• Pascal Westring (external)Statistics

• Dan StefanicaProject Manager

• Serena ScottonProject Officer

• Eirini LitinaCommunications Manager

• N.N.Communications assistant

• N.N.Policy assistant

• Savina CenuseSenior communication manager

• Francesca CorazzaHP KEYMARK Secretariat

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EHPA Vision

• In a fully decarbonised Europe, heat-pump technologies are

the number one heating and cooling solution, being a core

enabler for a renewable, sustainable and smart energy

system.

• ...



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Long term strategy (LTS)

for a decarbonised heating/cooling sector

The energy eco system: habitat for heat pumps? An EU perspective | SULPU | HELSINKI | 21.11.2019

Europe has approx. 115 - 120 million buildings

90 million single family residential

15 million multi-family residential

10 – 15 million commercial and office buildings

If heat pump reach a market penetration of 75% of all boilers...

More than 86 million HP need to be manufactured and installed by 2050

2.9 million every year (2.5 times todays annual sales)

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40% Boiler exchange

in ”high temperature heating

buildings”

technologytechnology

Technical potential of HP in the building stock

➔ Is the technology only fit for purpose in new builds?



20%

New

build

HP

ready

40%Boiler exchange

1:1

little/no renovation

HP ready

under conditionstechnology

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HP challenge: What if Norway was really everywhere? Is the HP value chain ready for a mass market?

Solutions for the renovation sector, multi-family buildings, industrial applications, district energy

Solutions for sector coupling and demand side flexibility

Manufacturing capacity and availability of components (including F-gas)?

Knowledgable planners, architects and installers?

Building codes?

Financing and business models

The energy eco system: habitat for heat pumps? An EU perspective | SULPU | HELSINKI | 21.11.2019

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What can we do together?



Co-Lobby

Helsinki

Brussels

• I love HP: • the mug

• the sticker

• the smarties

• HP icecream

• Decarbheat

• Plan(t) for the future

• ....




habitat for heat pumps? An EU perspective | SULPU | HELSINKI | 21.11.2019Per Grankvist “chief storyteller” for Sweden’s Viable Cities program

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A 100% renewable society is possible – by 2050


habitat for heat pumps? An EU perspective | SULPU | HELSINKI | 21.11.2019http://hpc2.stage3.de/

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Answer to the Ultimate Question of - Tervetuloa Thomas... · 2019-11-22 · Answer to the Ultimate Question of Life, the Universe, and Everything The energy eco system: ... F-gas