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Annual Report: Tara Social and economic changes in Queensland's gasfield communities in 2020 Published: June 2021

Annual Report: Tara

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Annual Report: Tara Social and economic changes in Queensland's gasfield communities in 2020

Published: June 2021

Research Project:

Cumulative social and economic impacts of CSG development in the Western Downs

DATA REPORT

INDICATORS OF CHANGE

IN

TARA AND DISTRICT COMMUNITY

Statistical data updated in June 2021

Contact: The University of Queensland, Dr Katherine Witt | Research Fellow

Centre for Natural Gas

The University of Queensland | Brisbane, QLD, 4072 AUSTRALIA

M: +61 (0) 418 619 341 | E: [email protected]

W: www.cng.uq.edu.au

UQ Research Project: Cumulative social and economic impacts of CSG development in Western Downs

2

Tara statistical area 2 (SA2) boundary

Source: http://www.qgso.qld.gov.au/products/maps/qld-sa2-asgs-2016/

Tara Township

UQ Research Project: Cumulative social and economic impacts of CSG development in Western Downs

4

Data notes

• UCL non-resident workers population estimate from QGSO 'Surat Basin Population Report' (ASGC 2016); 2020 version available here:

https://www.qgso.qld.gov.au/statistics/theme/population/non-resident-population-queensland-resource-regions/surat-basin

• UCL resident population estimate from the QGSO table ‘Estimated resident population (a) by urban centre and locality (b), Queensland, 2006 to 2016pr’ (ASGS 2016),

http://www.qgso.qld.gov.au/products/tables/erp-ucl-qld/index.php

• SA2 population estimate from the QGSO table ‘Estimated resident population by statistical area level 2 (SA2), Queensland, 2006 to 2016pr’ (ASGS 2016),

http://www.qgso.qld.gov.au/subjects/demography/population-estimates/tables/erp-sa2-qld/index.php

• Population projection (2019 edition) from QGSO table 'Projected population (medium series), by statistical area level 2 (SA2), SA3 and SA4, Queensland, 2011 to 2041' (ASGC 2001),

http://www.qgso.qld.gov.au/subjects/demography/population-projections/tables/proj-pop-medium-series-sa2-sa3-sa4-qld/index.php

Residents (UCL)

Non-resident workers (UCL)

Residents projection (SA2)

Residents (SA2)

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000P

op

ula

tio

n (

no

. of

per

son

s)Population and Projections

UQ Research Project: Cumulative social and economic impacts of CSG development in Western Downs

5

Data notes

• Population and non-resident worker population estimates for UCL and Western Downs LGA from the QGSO 'Surat Basin Population Report' (ASGC 2016); 2020 version available here: https://www.qgso.qld.gov.au/statistics/theme/population/non-resident-population-queensland-resource-regions/surat-basin

• Data missing for 2008/09 non-resident worker population

-

200

400

600

800

1,000N

o. o

f p

erso

ns

Resident vs. non-resident population

Residents (UCL) Non-resident workers (UCL)

- 5,000

10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000

No

. of

per

son

s

Population (resident vs. non-residents) - Western Downs LGA

Residents (LGA) Non-residents (LGA)

UQ Research Project: Cumulative social and economic impacts of CSG development in Western Downs

6

Data notes

• Non-resident population, Queensland resource regions: Surat Basin: https://www.qgso.qld.gov.au/statistics/theme/population/non-resident-population-queensland-resource-regions/surat-basin

• Non-resident workers projections (2018) by LGA from QGSO report 'Surat Basin non–resident population projections: 2019 to 2025', https://www.qgso.qld.gov.au/statistics/theme/population/non-resident-population-queensland-resource-regions/surat-basin

• Series A projection is based on the number of non–resident workers on-shift who were engaged in existing resource operations and associated infrastructure activities in the area at June 2019. The projection takes into account future changes to those operational workforces as advised by resource company sources, as well as the estimated construction and operational workforces of Category A projects (i.e. those that are approved and have reached a financial close).

• Series B projection includes the Series A projection plus projected growth in the non-resident population arising from Category B projects (those that are approved but have yet to reach a financial close).

• Series A projection is based on the number of non–resident workers on-shift who were engaged in existing resource operations and associated infrastructure activities in the area at June 2014. The projection takes into account future changes to those operational workforces as advised by resource company sources, as well as the estimated construction and operational workforces of Category A projects (i.e. those that are approved and have reached a financial close).

• Series B projection includes the Series A projection plus projected growth in the non-resident population arising from Category B projects (those that are approved but have yet to reach a financial close).

Non-residents (LGA)

NRW projection A (2019)

NRW projection B (2019)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25

No

. of

per

son

sNon-resident population projections - Western Downs LGA

UQ Research Project: Cumulative social and economic impacts of CSG development in Western Downs

7

Data notes

• 2004-2008 based on SLA statistical boundary; Source: QGSO Regional Database Archived dataset 'Labour Force - Small Area (Qtr Ended 31 Dec 2002 to Qtr Ended 31 Dec 2008) [DEEWR, Small Area Labour Markets Australia] (ASGC 2001)', http://www.qgso.qld.gov.au/products/tables/qld-regional-database/index.php

• 2009-2010 data from DEEWR file 'Unemployment salm_data_files_2008-2013'

• 2010-2020 based on SA2 statistical boundary; Source: QGSO Regional Database dataset 'Labour Force - Small Area (Qtr Ended 31 Dec 2010 to Qtr Ended 31 Dec 2020) [Department

of Jobs and Small Business] (ASGS 2016)', http://www.qgso.qld.gov.au/products/tables/qld-regional-database/index.php

Tara

Queensland (benchmark)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Un

emp

loym

ent

rate

(%

)Unemployment rate

UQ Research Project: Cumulative social and economic impacts of CSG development in Western Downs

8

Data notes

• Source: Australian Taxation Office (ATO), Research and Statistics, https://www.ato.gov.au/

• Average taxable incomes reported by ATO until 2009 excluded losses. Averages from 2010 include all taxable incomes including incomes of zero and losses.

• Data relates to Tara postcode 4421

• Original data – no discounting applied

• Due to ATO data publishing cycles, 2019/20 data will be included in the 2021 Tara booklet

Tara

Queensland (benchmark)

$-

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000A

nn

ual

inco

me

($A

U)

Average taxable income (taxable individuals only)

UQ Research Project: Cumulative social and economic impacts of CSG development in Western Downs

9

Data notes

• Source: Australian Taxation Office (ATO), Research and Statistics, https://www.ato.gov.au/

• Data relates to Tara postcode 4421

• Original data – no discounting applied

• Due to ATO data publishing cycles, 2019/20 data will be included in the 2021 Tara booklet

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

$-

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

$40

No

. of

earn

ers

Earn

ings

($

AU

per

yea

r)M

illio

ns

Total wage and salary earnings

No. wage and salary earners Total wage and salary earnings

UQ Research Project: Cumulative social and economic impacts of CSG development in Western Downs

10

Data notes

• Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Cat. 8165, https://www.abs.gov.au/

• Data based on SA2 (Tara) statistical boundary

0

50

100

150

200

250

2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20

Co

un

t o

f b

usi

nes

s (n

o.)

Count of Businesses by Turnover (NPP)

0k-100k 100k-499k 500k-2m 2m+

UQ Research Project: Cumulative social and economic impacts of CSG development in Western Downs

11

Data notes

• Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Cat. 8165, https://www.abs.gov.au/

• Data based on SA2 (Tara) statistical boundary

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20

Co

un

t o

f b

usi

nes

s (n

o.)

Count of Businesses by Turnover (PP)

0k-100k 100k-499k 500k-2m 2m+

UQ Research Project: Cumulative social and economic impacts of CSG development in Western Downs

12

Data notes

• Source: QGSO Regional Database dataset 'Residential land and dwelling sales (Year Ended 30 Sep 2000 to Year Ended 31 Dec 2020) [DNRM] (ASGS 2016)',

http://www.qgso.qld.gov.au/products/tables/qld-regional-database/index.php

• Median house sale price and house sales based on SA2 statistical boundary

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

$-

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

No

. of

ho

use

sal

es

Pri

ce (

$A

U)

Tho

usa

nd

s

Median house sale price

No. of house sales - Tara Tara (SA2) Brisbane (benchmark)

UQ Research Project: Cumulative social and economic impacts of CSG development in Western Downs

13

Data notes

• Source: QGSO Regional Database dataset 'Median rent (Year Ended 30 Sep 1990 to Year Ended 31 Dec 2020) [RTA] (ASGS 2016)', http://www.qgso.qld.gov.au/products/tables/qld-

regional-database/index.php

• Rent value data based on SA2 statistical boundary

$8

4

$8

5

$8

6

$9

0 $1

10

$1

09

$1

18

$1

38

$1

50

$1

51

$1

71

$1

93

$2

20

$2

32

$2

30

$2

28

$2

03

$2

00

$2

00

$2

05

$1

25

Queensland (benchmark)

$-

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Wee

kly

ren

t ($

AU

)Median weekly rent (3-bedroom house)

Median weekly rent Queensland (benchmark)

UQ Research Project: Cumulative social and economic impacts of CSG development in Western Downs

14

Data notes

• Source: QGSO Regional Database dataset 'Building Approvals (Jul 2001 to Dec 2020) [ABS 8731.0] (ASGS 2016)', http://www.qgso.qld.gov.au/products/tables/qld-regional-

database/index.php

• Data based on SA2 statistical boundary

• Approvals shown for private buildings only; public developments are excluded

• Private non-residential building approvals remained at zero between 2002 and 2020

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

No

. of

app

rova

lsNew building approvals

Residential building approvals Non-residential building approvals

UQ Research Project: Cumulative social and economic impacts of CSG development in Western Downs

15

Data notes

• Source: Queensland Police Service (QPS), https://www.police.qld.gov.au/online/data/

• Crime rate data (per 100,000 people) obtained by QPS Division and Queensland State; data was adjusted to be presented as number of offences per 1,000 people per year

5.6

11

.2

13

.4

12

.8

29

.2

11

.9

18

.2

14

.1

15

.7

19

.3

16

.7 17

.7

24

.2

24

.4

20

.6

25

.5

20

.7 21

.3

16

.8Queensland (benchmark)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

No

. of

off

ence

s p

er 1

,00

0 p

erso

ns

per

yea

rTraffic and related offences

UQ Research Project: Cumulative social and economic impacts of CSG development in Western Downs

16

Data notes

• Source: Queensland Police Service (QPS), https://www.police.qld.gov.au/online/data/

• Crime rate data (per 100,000 people) obtained by QPS Division and Queensland State; data was adjusted to be presented as number of offences per 1,000 people per year

Drug Offences

Good Order Offences

Other Theft (excl. Unlawful Entry)0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90N

o. o

f o

ffen

ces

per

1,0

00

per

son

s p

er y

ear

Other relevant offences

Drug Offences

Good Order Offences

Other Theft (excl. Unlawful Entry)

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

No

. of

off

ence

s p

er 1

,00

per

son

s p

er

year

Other relevant offences - Queensland

UQ Research Project: Cumulative social and economic impacts of CSG development in Western Downs

17

Data notes

• Source: Queensland Police Service (QPS), https://www.police.qld.gov.au/online/data/

• Crime rate data (per 100,000 people) obtained by QPS Division and Queensland State; data was adjusted to be presented as number of offences per 1,000 people per year

Queensland total crime rate

0

50

100

150

200

250

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

No

. of

off

ence

s p

er 1

,00

0 p

erso

ns

per

yea

rTotal offences

Offences Against the Person Offences Against Property Other Offences

UQ Research Project: Cumulative social and economic impacts of CSG development in Western Downs

18

Data notes

• Source: Bureau of Meteorology Climate Data online, http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/data/

• Rainfall observations are reported for Woodlea Weather Station

• Where missing data is indicated, gaps exist in daily rainfall observations

Historic Average

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Rai

nfa

ll (m

m)

Rainfall

Summer (Jan-Mar, Oct-Dec) Winter (Apr-Sept)

*

* *

*

*

*

*

**

*

*

* *