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www.eia.govU.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis
Annual Energy Outlook 2016: LFMM preliminary results
AEO2016 Liquid Fuels Market Module ResultsOffice of Petroleum, Natural Gas & Biofuels AnalysisFebruary 24, 2016 | Washington, DC
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSESDO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Discussion topics
Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes Washington DC, February 24, 2016 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 2
• AEO2016 vs AEO2015 changes in LFMM
• Key preliminary results– Crude and product prices– Crude production, imports, exports– Product exports– Refinery utilization– Biofuels production
AEO2016 vs AEO2015 changes in LFMM
Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes Washington DC, February 24, 2016 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 3
• Crude– Crude exports are allowed, unrestricted– Revised methodology for determining by-grade crude price response
• Products– Modified elasticities representing international product import and export curves (IEM) – All product curves are extended to 14 steps
• Logistics– Updated pipeline and rail capacities and tariffs
• Policy– Reinstated ethanol and biodiesel tax credits through 2016– New RFS issued November 2015
• Updated pricing of fuel oil in Census Division 9
Brent spot price
Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes Washington DC, February 24, 2016 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 4
AEO2015
AEO2016
Brent-WTI spread
Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes Washington DC, February 24, 2016 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 5
AEO2016
AEO2015
Motor gasoline price
Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes Washington DC, February 24, 2016 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 6
AEO2016
AEO2015
Diesel fuel price
Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes Washington DC, February 24, 2016 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 7
AEO2016
AEO2015
Domestic crude oil production
Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes Washington DC, February 24, 2016 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 8
AEO2016
AEO2015
Domestic NGPL production
Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes Washington DC, February 24, 2016 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 9
AEO2016
AEO2015
Net imports of crude oil
Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes Washington DC, February 24, 2016 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 10
AEO2016
AEO2015
Crude oil exports (mainly to Canada)
Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes Washington DC, February 24, 2016 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 11
AEO2016
AEO2015
Product exports
Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes Washington DC, February 24, 2016 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 12
AEO2016
AEO2015
Net import share of product supplied
Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes Washington DC, February 24, 2016 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 13
AEO2016
AEO2015
Refinery utilization
Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes Washington DC, February 24, 2016 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 14
AEO2016
AEO2015
Motor gasoline consumption declines, with small increase in E85 consumption
Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes Washington DC, February 24, 2016 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 15
AEO2015
AEO2015
AEO2016
AEO2016
Total motor gasolineconsumption
Total E85consumption
Total ethanol production remains steady, with lower levels from cellulosic sources
Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes Washington DC, February 24, 2016 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 16
Total ethanol production
Cellulosic ethanol production
AEO2015
AEO2015
AEO2016
AEO2016
Residual fuel oil price in Census Division 9- AEO2016
Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes Washington DC, February 24, 2016 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 17
Resid fuel oil price
Brent price
Contacts
18
John Powell: [email protected]
Mindi Farber-DeAnda: [email protected]
Beth May: [email protected]
Adrian Geagla: [email protected]
Next Working Group MeetingTentatively planned for summer 2016.
Will present assumptions for AEO2017.
Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes Washington DC, February 24, 2016 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change
For more information
19Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes Washington DC, February 24, 2016 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change
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