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Anindya BhattacharyaIGES, Japan
Asia Clean Energy Forum23rdJune, 2011
Manila
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Content Current status of growth indicators
Historical trends of emissions intensity
Energy infrastructural investment demand inIndia
Impact of emissions intensity reduction on Indianenergy
sector
Future direction of investment
6/28/2011Institute for Global Environmental Strategies 2
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Current status of growth & energy indicators
6/28/2011 Institute for Global Environmental Strategies 3
National GDP growth rate is around 8% pa until2020
Total final consumption of energy growth rate isaround 3% pa
until 2030.
Electricity sector growth rate is estimated around5% pa until
2030.
Total CO2 emissions growth rate is around 3.5%pa until 2030.
CO2 emissions from electricity sector itself isincreasing at the
rate of 2.5% pa.
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Historical trend of emissions intensity in India
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Status & projection of emissions intensity reduction
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National GDP growth rate is 2times the national CO2emissions
growth rate irrespective of much effortIndia can achieve the
overall
25% emissions intensityreduction target.
Around 500 Mt of CO2emissions less is required by2020 to achieve
the emissions
intensity target. Electricitysector needs around 300
Mtreduction.
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Historical trend of energy sector emissions intensity in
India
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Projection of emissions intensity in Indian Electricity
sector
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Electricity sector needs attention its growth rate is two third
of the GDP growth rate.Emissions intensity of electricity sector
can itself reduce by 30% by 2020
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Projected Energy infrastructure investment demand in
India
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IEA, 2007
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TIAM Reference Case Energy infrastructure for India by
2030
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Note: TIMES Integrated Assessment Model (TIAM) is technology
rich bottom-up energy model.
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Investment priority under emissions intensity
reduction plan using NAPCC
Mitigation scenario primarily follow National Action Plans on
Climate Change : i)energy efficiency improvement & ii)
renewable energy promotion Scenario targets:i) process efficiency
improvement by 10% and ii) combined solar and wind energyin the
electricity supply portfolio is 10% by 2020.
Total investment in power generation is estimated to be $ 475
billion USD.
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Impact of new electricity sector investment
on GHG emissions
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Future direction of power sector investment in India
under the NAPCC scenario
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Natural gas sector including LNG has huge potential of
furtherinvestment.
Energy trading is expected to grow- needs subsequent investment
in thetrading infrastructural development (LNG terminals, advance
portfacilities etc)
Cross border energy infrastructure development including
gridinterconnection, oil& gas pipelines etc are beneficial and
expected togrow faster.
Renewable energy sector investment will be predominant. More
than
80% of the total expected investment will go towards
renewable.
Solar PV with CSP technology will be gaining the highest level
ofinvestment growth in India under the National Solar Mission
Plan.
Wind will follow the business as usual investment pattern.
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Thank you for your attention !
For further detail please contact:
Anindya BhattacharyaSenior Energy Economist, Economy and
Environment Group
Institute for Global Environmental Strategies
2108-11 Kamiyamaguchi, Hayama, Kanagawa,JAPAN, 240-0115
E-Mail: [email protected]
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]
