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Angus CouncilHousing Need & Demand

AssessmentSteering Group Meeting

16th December 2009

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Aims of Session1. To detail methodology for

disaggregating the requirement for affordable housing

2. To review disaggregated model outcomes

3. To agree assumptions for projections: future housing need/supply

4. To agree structure and presentation of final report

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Baseline Housing Need Calculation for

Affordable Housing

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Plus

Current NeedX (a quota)

Newly Arising Need

Minus

Equals

Supply ofAffordable

HousingNet Shortfall/

Surplus

Affordable Housing Need Calculation

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Current Need: Unsuitable Housing• Homeless or with insecure tenure: 175• Concealed Households: 219• Overcrowding: 779• Special Needs: 3,194• Poor Condition: 428• Harassment: 127Current Need = 4,922

Affordable Housing Need Calculation

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Total Current Need – Eliminate:• ‘In situ solutions’:

Provision of aids/adaptations/support = 680 Net ‘Special Need’ figure = 2,514

• Net ‘Current Need’ figure = 4,242Then eliminate• % can meet need in private housing market

52% households can meet market entry price

Net Current Need = 2,206

Affordable Housing Need Calculation

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Newly Arising Need• New household formation: 771

Eliminate new formers who can afford to meet market entry level prices (32%)

• Existing households falling into need: 724 Change in household circumstances including

annual flow of homeless households

Newly Arising Estimate = 1,248

Affordable Housing Need Calculation

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Affordable Housing Supply• Affordable housing relets: 1,075• Committed new affordable supply: 50 • Turnover net of units taken out of

management: 0 demolitions• Annual Supply Estimate = 1,125

Affordable Housing Need Calculation

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Interim Calculation Estimate• Current need = 4,922

Net current need = 2,206 Net annual current need = 221 (10 years)

• Annual newly arising need = 1,248• Annual total need = 1,469• Annual affordable supply = 1,125• Estimated shortfall = -344• 10 year Est. shortfall = -3,440

Affordable Housing Need Calculation

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Disaggregated Calculation for

Affordable Housing

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Projecting Future NeedAggregated Housing Needs Analysis:– assumes the current profile of housing supply can

meet the type of need identified– assumes need is met over 5 year periodDisaggregated Analysis:− determines if supply is ‘fit for purpose’− detailed match of households to homes by size,

area, property type and tenure− assesses if annual need is met by supply and

extent to which backlog can be reduced− identifies length of time to address backlog− provides detailed profile of housing shortfall/

surplus to inform strategic planning

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Matched to

Residual Supply

Residual Backlog

Annual Newly Arising Need

Area

Size

Type

Annual Supply

Area

Size

Type

Backlog Housing Need

Area

Size

Type

Projected Forward Over Time Until Eliminated

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Model Overview •Disaggregated Methodology•Model Assumptions

BacklogNewly Arising NeedSupply

•Model Outputs•Key Questions

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Base Assumptions• The model is based on the 3

components of the aggregated HNADA calculation Backlog figure Newly arising need figure Supply figure

• 10 year projections model• Data input by HMA, Size, Type

• 4 Housing Market Areas North HMA (Brechin & Montrose), East HMA (Arbroath), South HMA (Carnoustie, Monifieth & Sidlaws), West HMA (Forfar, Kirriemuir, Angus Glens)

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Base Assumptions• Size: Bedrooms 1 to 5 • Property Type

General Needs Special Needs

• Wheelchair• Accommodation without Stairs• Sheltered• Supported

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Base Assumptions• Input by 7 components of need and split by

area and size based on analysis of survey or council datasets• Homeless Households = 136• Insecure Tenure = 39• Concealed Households = 219• Overcrowding = 779• Special Housing: net of in-situ solutions = 2,514 • Poor Quality = 428• Harassment = 127TOTAL = 4,242

• Facility in model to input projected increase/decreases on base assumptions

• Affordability outcomes applied by HMA

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Housing AffordabilityDisaggregated Outcomes by HMA

Net Backlog of Current Need (Angus) = 2,121 Net Backlog of Current Need (4 HMA) = 2,212 New Formers Affordability (Angus) = 524 New Formers Affordability (4 HMA) = 461

HMA

Lower Quartile

Price 2008

Backlog Affordability

NAN Affordability

Arbroath 80,000 49% 68%Brechin 82,875 44% 51%Carnoustie 133,000 61% 65%Forfar 94,000 54% 59%Angus 93,000 50% 68%

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Newly Arising Need Assumptions

• New Formation – split by area, size and type based on survey data = 771 Assumption : All General Needs Affordability Factor : applied by HMA Facility to increase/decrease per annum

• Homelessness input by area, size and type based on analysis of HL1 dataset = 724 Assumption : All General Needs? Increase p.a. according to 2012 target

• 724 = 2008/09 (85% priority assessment)• Increased to 100% (2009/10 – 2012/13)

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Supply Assumptions• Council & RSL stock calculation, split by

HMA, size and type• Adjusted for long term voids and units

taken out of management• Council & RSL relet rate established by

area and type based on turnover analysis Applied to stock to translate into annual

supply of affordable dwellings by area, size and type

Facility to model increase/decrease in supply and turnover rate

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Baseline Year Supply Assumptions

• Total Affordable Stock = 10,866 Angus Council = 7,817 RSL’s = 3,049 units

• Adjusted for RTB Projections 31 units per annum (average 2009-19) AC HRA Business Plan assumptions

• Adjusted for demolitions = 0• Turnover rate by HMA/type applied to

stock to produce vacancies Angus Council Ave for GN stock = 7% RSL Ave for GN stock 6%

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Baseline Year Supply Assumptions

New Affordable Housing Supply • Based on TAYplan assumptions

Based on AHIP budget and £74k cost per unitReduction in AHIP of 25% from 2009/10 levelProjected over 10 years

• 49 units per annum• Split new housing by area, size and type as

per the current stock profile• Relet rate based on 50% of the average RSL

rate (3%)

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Disaggregated Outcomes Key Outcomes

• Year 1: 2,439 households have unmet need• Year 5: 3,228 households have unmet need• Year 10: 4,399 households have unmet

needHeadlines at Year 5• Shortfall of affordable housing highest in

South (-1,605) & West (-1,339) HMA’s• Shortfall of affordable housing greatest in 4

bedroom properties: (-1,188) (35%)• 85% of shortfall is in General Needs housing• 15% of shortfall is in Special Needs housing

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Disaggregated Outcomes Key Drivers in Increasing Shortfall

• Baseline backlog current need = -2,277• Average annual shortfall = -193

Minimum shortfall = - 53 (baseline year) Maximum shortfall = -238 (Year 10)

• Annual shortfalls increase as a result of: Increasing number of annual homeless households Reducing stock numbers

• Cumulative annual shortfall = -2,122• Backlog + total annual shortfall = -4,399

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Unmet Need for Affordable Housing

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Unmet Need for Affordable Housing by Area

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Unmet Need for Affordable Housing by Type

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Unmet Need for Affordable Housing by Size

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HNADA Conclusions –Key Issues

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Market Housing Requirement: Key Issues • There are significant differences in market

housing demand between HMA’s Demand concentrated in the South HMA

• Since 2007 there has been a significant drop in the level of sales activity within the market (30%)For modelling purposes, it is anticipated that

the market will to its 2007 level by Year 10• The evidence supports the view that by 2019

there will be a shortfall of over 6,000 market dwellings throughout Angus

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Market Housing Requirement: Key Issues

• Difficult to predict the likely pattern of market recovery the evidence suggests that high quality market housing for older households is likely to be a robust market sector

• Given the assumptions used within the model the land requirement for market housing can be assessed by: (Known current land bank) – (land requirement for

assumed level of new build within model (290 units)) + (land requirement to meet unmet need of 6,000 households)

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Recommendations• The number of households in need does

NOT equal number of units to be delivered• Need could be met through range of

interventions programmed though LHS: developing partnerships with the private

rented sector; tackling private sector disrepair; using assistive technology to promote

independence in older people; tackling and preventing homelessness; making better use of the current affordable

and private stock; developing flexible tenure options; and increasing housing supply.

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Tackling Homelessness

2012 Target

Local Need

Providing Housing Support

Assessment

Local Need

Fuel Poverty Strategy

Climate Change

ChallengeLocal Actions

Private SectorHousing

Enforcement

SOA

Local Duty

Meeting Housing Need & Demand

Housing Supply Target

Housing MarketArea Evidence

Local DeliveryRole of PRS in Meeting Need

Achieving Sustainable Communities

SHIP

Local Housing Strategy

Investment DirectionDevelopment Plan Link

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Recommendations• AC should prepare an action plan

quantify potential impact of each intervention

set targets for projected impact on overall level of unmet need

• Residual need should be starting point for supply target setting

• This process should consider land capacity development industry capacity availability of development funding corporate vision: Strategic Outcome Agreement