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Reclamation • LACFCD • LACDPW | Task 2 – Water Supply & Water Demand Projections
Los Angeles County Flood Control District U.S. Department of the Interior – Bureau of Reclamation TASK 2 – Water Supply & Water Demand Projections Public Webinar October 21, 2014
LOS ANGELES BASIN STORMWATER CONSERVATION STUDY
Reclamation • LACFCD • LACDPW | Task 2 – Water Supply & Water Demand Projections
OVERVIEW
Study Background
Progress Update / Schedule
Task 2 Findings
Next Steps
Reclamation • LACFCD • LACDPW | Task 2 – Water Supply & Water Demand Projections
STUDY PARTNERSHIP
Collaboration Between »
• Los Angeles County Flood Control District
• U.S. Department of the Interior – Bureau of Reclamation
Cost Estimate » $2.4 million
Study Length » 3 Years
• Completion in December 2015
• Task 2 started in March 2014
Reclamation • LACFCD • LACDPW | Task 2 – Water Supply & Water Demand Projections
STUDY OBJECTIVES
1) Evaluate existing water conservation under future conditions
2) Evaluate potential new facilities & operational changes for a future climate
Tool for Future Planning by LACFCD &
Other Local Partners
OUTCOME
Reclamation • LACFCD • LACDPW | Task 2 – Water Supply & Water Demand Projections
KEY CONSIDERATIONS
Climate Change
Population growth
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100
Po
pu
lati
on
(M
illio
ns)
Year
Los Angeles County Population Projection
California Department of Finance, - State and County Population Projections USGS - CMIP5 Global Climate Change Viewer
Reclamation • LACFCD • LACDPW | Task 2 – Water Supply & Water Demand Projections
STUDY AREA
Reclamation • LACFCD • LACDPW | Task 2 – Water Supply & Water Demand Projections
STUDY TASKS
1 Project Management
2 Water Supply & Water Demand Projections
3 Downscaled Climate Change & Hydrologic Modeling
4 Existing Infrastructure Response &
Operations Analysis
5 Infrastructure & Operations Concepts
6 Trade-off Analysis & Recommendations
7 Final Report
Reclamation • LACFCD • LACDPW | Task 2 – Water Supply & Water Demand Projections
MAJOR STUDY TASKS
2 Water Supply & Water Demand Projections
3 Downscaled Climate Change & Hydrologic Modeling
4 Existing Infrastructure Response & Operations Analysis
5 Infrastructure & Operations Concepts
6 Trade-off Analysis & Recommendations
Water Supply & Water Demand Projections
Downscaled Climate Change & Hydrologic Modeling
Existing Infrastructure Response &
Operations Analysis
Infrastructure & Operations Concepts
Trade-off Analysis &
Recommendations
Reclamation • LACFCD • LACDPW | Task 2 – Water Supply & Water Demand Projections
STUDY SCHEDULE
• Water Supply & Demand Literature Review • Supply Analysis • LACFCD Water Conservation System Contributions • Report Review & Publishing (In Progress)
• General oversight and project guidance • Study Task Facilitation/Coordination • Study Outreach (Ongoing)
• Response to Current Climate • Response to Future Climate • Report Review & Publishing (Review Draft Report)
TASK 2 – Water Supply
& Demand Projections
• Downscaled Climate Change Modeling • Hydrologic Modeling – Current/Projected • Report Review & Publishing (Complete)
TASK 3 – Downscaled
Climate Change &
Hydrologic Modeling
TASK 4 – Existing
Infrastructure Response &
Operations Plans Analysis
September 2013 to
October 2014
January 2013 to
December 2015
March 2014 to
November 2014
February 2013 to
December 2013
TASK 1 – Study Project
Management
ACTION SCOPE TARGET
Reclamation • LACFCD • LACDPW | Task 2 – Water Supply & Water Demand Projections
STUDY SCHEDULE
TASK 5 – Infrastructure
& Operations Concepts
• Develop Concepts • Evaluate and Refine Concepts • Appraisal-Level Planning • Report Review & Publishing (Kickoffs Soon)
TASK 6 – Trade-Off
Analysis &
Recommendations
• Conduct Economic Analysis • Conduct Non-Economic Analysis • Develop Trade-off Matrix • Cost Effectiveness • Develop Recommendations • Report Review & Publishing
TASK 7 – Final Report
• Prepare Final Report • Final Reviews • Publish and Distribute Final Report
July 2014 to
August 2015
November 2014 to
September 2015
June 2015 to
December 2015
ACTION SCOPE TARGET
Reclamation • LACFCD • LACDPW | Task 2 – Water Supply & Water Demand Projections
TASK 2 – GOALS FOR TODAY
1. Task 2 Overview & Progress
2. Present Findings
3. Discuss “big picture” comments and concerns
4. Questions & Answers
Reclamation • LACFCD • LACDPW | Task 2 – Water Supply & Water Demand Projections
TASK 2 – OVERVIEW
Purpose is to conduct an analysis that:
Estimates water demands and available supplies
• Years 2010, 2035, and 2095
Uses existing planning documents where available; uses reasonable
assumptions where quantifications not available
Incorporates climate change impacts
Informs Task 5 which explores concepts to capture stormwater
Reclamation • LACFCD • LACDPW | Task 2 – Water Supply & Water Demand Projections
2014 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Final Interim Report
End of November
Public Draft Comments Due
11/12/2014
Public Draft Interim Report
10/21/2014
Public Presentation of Draft Interim Report
10/21/2014
STAC Meeting 8/18/2014
STAC Draft Interim Report
8/13/2014
Supply/Demand TMs
7/15/2014
STAC Kickoff 5/13/2014
Supply/Demand Methodologies
5/1/2014
Team Kickoff 4/24/2014
TASK 2 – PROGRESS
Reclamation • LACFCD • LACDPW | Task 2 – Water Supply & Water Demand Projections
TASK 2 – REPORT OVERVIEW
Provides projected supplies & demands out to 2095
• Not intended to determine which available supplies will be implemented
• Facilities will be needed to implement supplies
• Factors to consider: environmental, cost, public policy, reliability
• Gap is projected between available supplies and supplies that are used
• Stormwater and conservation are likely to be implemented
Basis for projections:
• 2010 – Existing planning documents
• 2035 – Existing planning document projections
• 2095 – Developed assumptions
Reclamation • LACFCD • LACDPW | Task 2 – Water Supply & Water Demand Projections
TASK 2 – CONSIDERATIONS FOR 2095
Organization
• By watershed
• Re-apportionment for demand and supply distributions
Demand
• “Low” (Australia), “Medium” (Long Beach), and “High” gpcd assumptions
Available Supplies
• “Available supplies” vs. “available supplies not used”
• Direct Use vs. Replenishment/Recharge
• “High” and “Low” Recycled Water Recharge scenarios
• Stormwater supply divided into 3 categories
• Imported water for recharge replaced with recycled water and stormwater
Reclamation • LACFCD • LACDPW | Task 2 – Water Supply & Water Demand Projections
TASK 2 – SUMMARY OF FINDINGS
Available supplies exceed projected demands for 2095 in LA Basin
All three demand scenarios
Both recycled water replenishment/recharge scenarios
Significantly higher supply availability and demands in some watersheds
Los Angeles River watershed
San Gabriel River watershed
Larger geographic areas, populations, and groundwater basins
Reclamation • LACFCD • LACDPW | Task 2 – Water Supply & Water Demand Projections
WATERSHED SNAPSHOT – 2095
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
Malibu Creek North SantaMonica Bay
BallonaCreek
South SantaMonica Bay
DominguezChannel/ Los
AngelesHarbor
Los AngelesRiver
San GabrielRiver
AFY
Watershed
Recycled Water for Recharge (High)
Recycled Water for Recharge (Low)
Decentralized Stormwater for Recharge
Centralized Stormwater for Recharge
Imported Water for Recharge
Groundwater Natural Safe Yield
Decentralized Stormwater Capture forDirect UseGraywater
Recycled Water
Desalinated Ocean Water
Local Surface Water
Imported Water
Demand
High
Med
Low
Reclamation • LACFCD • LACDPW | Task 2 – Water Supply & Water Demand Projections
LA BASIN PROGRESSION TO 2095
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
2010 2035 2095
AFY
Year
Recycled Water for Recharge (High)
Recycled Water for Recharge (Low)
Decentralized Stormwater for Recharge
Centralized Stormwater for Recharge
Imported Water for Recharge
Groundwater Natural Safe Yield
Decentralized Stormwater Capture forDirect Use
Graywater
Recycled Water
Desalinated Ocean Water
Local Surface Water
Imported Water
Groundwater - Pumped
Total Demand
High
Med
Low
Groundwater Supplies
Reclamation • LACFCD • LACDPW | Task 2 – Water Supply & Water Demand Projections
TASK 2 Q&A
Morris Dam
Reclamation • LACFCD • LACDPW | Task 2 – Water Supply & Water Demand Projections
NEXT STEPS » CONCEPTS & RECOMMENDATIONS
Enhancing the Water Conservation System to Address Future Conditions
Reclamation • LACFCD • LACDPW | Task 2 – Water Supply & Water Demand Projections
Hansen Spreading Grounds
NEXT STEPS » CONCEPTS & RECOMMENDATIONS
Reclamation • LACFCD • LACDPW | Task 2 – Water Supply & Water Demand Projections
UPCOMING STUDY ITEMS
Task 5 Scoping Sessions / Design Charettes – Fall 2014
• Develop facility enhancements and/or new concepts
Next Task
• Task 6 – Trade-off Analysis & Recommendations
Reclamation • LACFCD • LACDPW | Task 2 – Water Supply & Water Demand Projections
CONTACT INFORMATION
LOS ANGELES BASIN STORMWATER CONSERVATION STUDY
http://www.usbr.gov/lc/socal/basinstudies/LABasin.html
LACFCD Contact:
Lee Alexanderson, P. E.
County of Los Angeles
Department of Public Works
Los Angeles County Flood Control District
Watershed Management Division
(626) 458-4370
Reclamation Contact:
Jack Simes, Planning Officer
Department of the Interior
Bureau of Reclamation
Lower Colorado River Region
Southern California Area Office
(951) 695-5310