Andrew Coulson, University of Birmingham, England [email protected] To be published in: Looking Back, Looking ahead: Land, Agriculture and Society

Andrew Coulson, University of Birmingham, England

[email protected]

To be published in: Looking Back, Looking ahead: Land, Agriculture and Society in East Africa – A Festschrift for the work of Kjell

HavnevikNordic Africa Institute, Uppsala, September 2015

mailto:[email protected]

Part of a bigger project – trying to make sense of what is happening to agriculture in Tanzania

I became involved again – after a 30 year gap – in 2009, at a time when agricultural production was reported as growing at about 4% p.a. This was much higher than in the years after Liberalisation – which had led to a series of very negative commentaries on Tanzanian agriculture (Bryceson, Skarstein, Ponte, etc)

In 2010 I heard Hans Binswanger make the case that the best opportunities for agriculture in Tanzania lay in growing surpluses of foods (esp. maize and rice)

Danish Institute for International Studies 2015

2001/2 2002/3

2003/4

2004/5

2005/6

2006/7

2007/8

2008/9

2009/10 2010/1 2011/2*

Food crops:

Maize 2,705 2,322 3,157 3,219 3,373 3,302 3,594 3,556 4,733 4,123 5,240

Rice 640 713 688 759 784 872 897 875 1,723 1,439 1,128

Wheat 77 74 67 102 110 83 86 92 62 113 103

Export crops:

Cotton 49.9 63.4 46.9 114.6 125.6 43.8 67.3 123.6 89.5 54.8 75.7

Cashewnuts

67.3 95.0 79.0 72.0 77.4 92.6 99.1 79.1 75.4 121.1 158.4

Coffee 37.5 52.4 32.5 54.0 34.3 54.8 43.1 68.5 34.6 56.8 33.5

Tea 24.7 27.6 30.1 30.7 30.3 31.3 32.7 31.6 32.1 35.0 35.8

Tobacco 28.0 28.0 34.0 47.0 52.0 50.7 50.8 55.4 60.7 94.2 126.6

Source: Bank of Tanzania Quarterly Economic Bulletin June 2012, Table 1.11


As in Bank of Tanzania Monthly Economic Review, June 2015, Chart 4.2


Disappointment and feelings of failure There are a series of myths – which suit certain

vested interests. Many go back to colonial times. Words are used as weapons – “peasant”, “modern”,

“commercial”, etc There are many claims that Tanzania has almost

unlimited areas of land available for agriculture, and great potential for irrigation, and that “peasants” are lazy, backward, unproductive, etc etc

Yet in Tanzanian history, large-scale has consistently proved less sustainable than small-scale


Effective marketing arrangements Good and reliable prices – paid as promised Storage Feeder roads Research – especially to combat plant diseases –

with plant breeding the real key (improved varieties, or “green revolutions”)

Note: these days extension is less important, especially with information widely available on line


More plant and animal diseases and pests than anywhere else

Poor soils – except volcanic and river valleys - low organic content – risks of soil erosion

In most places insufficient water– even for domestic use. Some role for irrigation

RISKS – failing rains, pests, uncertain prices, post-harvest losses, family illness, etc etc

BUT: plants and trees grow quickly


Use the labour of the whole family – esp. women Respond to prices (provided there are goods in

the shops) Are very careful about risks Use mixed farming and small-scale irrigation when

they can

Systems like this can innovate But not if the pressure is too much They can also “subsist” – find other income

sources

Note: all Tanzanian farmers are in the market – no more peasants!


Fallow periods Ridges Multiple cropping Many small plots Seed selection – for taste and drought Uses of trees, and famine crops Risk avoidance – esp. with innovations

Tractors increase risk, leave the soil vulnerable, and need roots to be removed

The hoe, and ox-plough, have advantages –“minimal tillage”


1. If one crop grows quickly and covers the surface of the soil, then soil erosion is reduced.

2. So is evaporation of water.3. Pests and diseases spread more slowly. One crop may act

as a barrier slowing down the rate of movement of the diseases.

4. The two crops may use nutrients at different levels in the soil. This means that both crops may get good yields.

5. Less weeding if one of the crop replaces weeds. 6. One of the crops, e.g. beans, may “fix” nitrogen from the

atmosphere and so fertilize another crop, e.g. maize.7. If one crop fails, the other may not only survive, but have

more space in which to grow.8. One crop may provide shade for the other.


How do they survive? Not easily! They choose the best soils/locations, and/or grow

drought-resistant crops e.g. sisal, or insist on (usually subsidised) irrigation

Look after their soils with care Purchase the best available seeds Efficient marketing and/or processing – which

in some cases small farmers cannot match

BUT they have high fixed costs, inflexibilities

NB agribusiness in Africa is not new “Outgrowers” or contract farming is an attempt

to get the best of both worlds


Gradual realisation that markets will not solve [all !] Tanzania’s problems

Learning from E Asia – China, Vietnam, Malaysia

Several theses and reports compare Tanzania with Vietnam

“Big Results Now” draws directly on Malaysian experience – huge ambition, encouraged by promises of oil and gas wealth – it planned to spend $10b in 3 years.


1999 Tanzania Development Vision (to make Tanzania a middle income country by 2025) requires a 6% per annum growth in agriculture

2001Agriculture Sector Development Strategy and 2006 Agricultural Sector Development Programme committed big resources to irrigation

2009 Kilimo Kwanza [Agriculture First] included explicit policies to assist agri-business

2009 “Southern Agricultural Growth Corridor of Tanzania”, attempted to put this into practice

2012 Big Results Now ….



Big Results Now Targets

Source: BRN, Presentation to Annual Review Meeting 2013: slide 11

If the conditions are right, small farms can produce more food surpluses, to feed the cities

Large farms can do some things that small farms cannot – but do not need to be too big!

Small farm improvement is the only way that will also reduce poverty

So Tanzania needs some large farms but mostly small

How? Appropriate research – farmer-based Focus on marketing and farm prices Extension to support market forces Listen carefully to what small farmers say


Technical limitations, e.g soil degradation A commercial bourgeoisie is emerging Solutions from overseas may not be

appropriate The myths identified at the start of this

paper are very powerful. It will take something close to a revolution to dislodge them and create a new paradigm.


Documents

Andrew Coulson, University of Birmingham, England [email protected] To be published in: Looking Back, Looking ahead: Land, Agriculture and Society