Andrei Chtcherbakov, Robert Bloxam, David Yap, Duncan Fraser, Neville Reid, Sunny Wong

CMAQ PERFORMANCE AND ASSESSMENT OF THE

TRANSBOUNDARY INFLUENCES DURING LONG-TERM MODELLING IN ONTARIO

Andrei Chtcherbakov, Robert Bloxam, David Yap, Duncan Fraser,

Neville Reid, Sunny Wong

Ontario Ministry of the Environment, Toronto, Canada

3rd Annual Models-3 User's Conference

October 18-20, 2004Chapel Hill, NC

Modelling domain

Sub domains (Ontario’s communities)

Modelling Approach

The modelling has been done for the May through September 1998 period.

The modelling was done for a base case and then with Ontario’s anthropogenic emissions shut off.

Evaluation of the modelling results ( base case) for ozone and PM2.5 were made in 12 major Ontario communities.

Assessment of transboundary influences were made both during high concentration episodes and on cleaner days.

Evaluation of CMAQ Performance

• Analysis of time series and frequency distributions for modelled and observed data in each subdomain separately for every month

• Detailed investigation of modelled/observed discrepancies ( backtrajectory analysis, satellite images, etc.)

• Analysis of chemical composition of PM2.5

• Analysis of correlation between observed/modelled data

Time series of ozone concentrations , GTA______ - modelled ______ - observed

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Frequency distribution of PM2.5, GTA - modelled - observed

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O3 and PM2.5 time series, GTA, July

O3 time series, GTA; R=0.85

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Backward trajectories at GTA, June 30 – July 2

Satellite image of forest fires, James Bay, July 1, 1998

PM2.5 time series, July 1 – 3 observed data excluded

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Time series of ozone and PM2.5, GTA, August 1998

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Analysis wind from EDAS archive, Aug. 24, 1998

Peak ozone concentration, Aug.24, 1998

Modelled wind on August 24, 1998

Number of days with high O3 ( > 65 ppb) and PM2.5 ( > 20 ug/m3) concentrations

I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII

Ozone 5 5 7 7 2 4 1 1 2 0 2 1

PM2.5 5 5 6 5 8 4 0 0 4 0 0 0

Ozone 6 5 4 5 3 1 3 1 0 0 0 0

PM2.5 1 0 3 2 8 1 2 0 1 0 0 0

Ozone 8 8 9 12 5 5 5 5 4 0 1 1

PM2.5 3 3 4 4 4 3 3 3 0 0 0 0

Ozone 8 4 6 9 2 3 2 2 2 0 0 0

PM2.5 1 3 7 6 9 1 1 1 0 1 0 0

Ozone 3 2 3 4 2 2 3 1 1 0 0 0

PM2.5 3 3 3 3 6 3 2 2 1 3 0 0

Ozone 30 24 29 37 14 15 14 10 9 0 3 2PM2.5 13 14 23 20 35 12 8 6 6 4 0 0

SUB-DOMAIN

Species

Total

MonthS

ept

May

July

Jun

eA

ug

O3 and PM2.5 concentrations on “Clean”, “Dirty” days and on average

I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XIIMean 51.5 50.9 51.7 54.0 47.5 49.1 47.3 45.3 46.9 43.1 43.4 42.4Dirty 70.4 70.2 70.8 73.3 82.1 72.5 70.0 65.8 69.5 N/A 73.2 67.4Clean 47.9 47.2 46.2 48.4 45.1 45.6 46.5 44.6 45.4 43.1 41.3 41.6Mean 10.1 11.0 13.0 12.8 15.5 8.3 6.7 5.7 7.9 6.0 4.1 4.9Dirty 21.3 26.1 30.0 27.5 34.4 26.1 N/A N/A 22.1 N/A N/A N/AClean 8.0 8.1 8.9 10.0 8.9 5.6 6.7 5.7 5.8 6.0 4.1 4.9Mean 55.4 51.6 52.3 54.7 48.3 48.5 49.4 48.3 47.9 45.4 43.8 43.4Dirty 75.2 69.9 72.1 72.6 72.4 66.8 71.1 74.8 N/A N/A N/A N/AClean 50.4 47.9 49.3 51.1 45.6 47.9 47.0 47.4 47.9 45.4 43.8 43.4Mean 8.2 8.0 9.9 10.5 14.5 8.2 7.8 6.7 5.8 6.2 3.2 3.9Dirty 21.9 23.3 23.1 28.2 26.5 21.5 N/A 20.7 N/A N/A N/AClean 7.7 8.0 8.4 9.6 9.5 7.6 6.8 6.7 5.3 6.2 3.2 3.9Mean 59.4 54.3 55.6 59.5 51.5 51.0 52.9 51.4 49.0 45.4 44.6 44.6Dirty 77.5 71.9 71.1 73.8 74.1 77.4 81.2 77.8 69.0 N/A 67.2 65.5Clean 53.2 48.1 49.3 50.5 47.2 45.9 47.4 46.3 46.0 45.4 43.8 43.9Mean 10.1 8.7 9.9 11.2 12.5 7.6 8.0 7.8 6.0 7.0 4.0 4.5Dirty 25.4 24.3 24.4 26.7 28.4 23.6 26.9 25.3 N/A N/A N/A N/AClean 8.4 7.0 7.7 8.9 10.1 5.9 6.0 5.9 6.0 7.0 4.0 4.5Mean 57.2 54.1 54.6 57.4 48.3 47.8 47.0 46.9 50.4 43.4 44.2 44.3Dirty 71.4 72.5 68.3 69.0 69.4 70.7 73.4 70.0 72.6 N/A N/A 71.2Clean 52.3 51.4 51.3 52.6 46.8 45.4 45.2 45.3 48.8 43.4 44.2 42.4Mean 10.5 10.5 13.4 13.8 15.0 8.0 7.9 8.0 7.3 8.3 4.3 5.0Dirty 24.5 21.4 23.2 22.6 23.8 22.6 24.3 23.9 N/A 22.6 N/A N/AClean 10.0 9.3 10.5 11.7 11.4 7.5 7.4 7.5 7.3 7.8 4.3 5.0Mean 49.0 46.9 45.7 49.0 41.2 43.6 44.0 43.3 44.7 40.3 41.9 40.6Dirty 67.7 69.2 71.4 72.6 72.5 73.2 69.9 71.5 66.6 N/A N/A N/AClean 46.9 45.3 42.9 45.3 38.9 41.5 41.2 42.3 44.0 40.3 41.9 40.6Mean 10.8 10.6 11.9 12.4 14.1 8.9 8.2 7.5 6.6 7.6 3.6 4.1Dirty 23.8 25.0 28.2 26.5 27.8 28.1 27.5 25.1 22.2 22.7 N/A N/AClean 9.3 9.0 10.1 10.8 10.6 6.8 6.8 6.3 6.1 5.9 3.6 4.1

ozone

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June

July

Aug

ozone

PM2.5

ozone

PM2.5

Month Species

PM2.5

SUB-DOMAINSMean/ Dirty/ Clean

Sep

t

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PM2.5

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PM2.5

Chemical composition of PM2.5, May 1998

SPECIES Mean/Dirty/Clean I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XIIMean 10.1 11.0 13.0 12.8 15.5 8.3 6.7 5.7 7.9 6.0 4.1 4.9Dirty 21.3 26.1 30.0 27.5 34.4 26.1 N/A N/A 22.1 N/A N/A N/AClean 8.0 8.1 8.9 10.0 8.9 5.6 6.7 5.7 5.8 6.0 4.1 4.9Mean 0.7 1.1 1.6 1.3 2.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.1Dirty 1.3 3.3 5.1 3.4 6.6 3.5 N/A N/A 2.5 N/A N/A N/AClean 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1Mean 5.1 5.1 5.3 5.5 4.7 3.8 3.3 2.8 3.9 2.3 2.4 2.7Dirty 12.3 12.8 12.4 12.9 10.7 11.6 N/A N/A 10.9 N/A N/A N/AClean 3.7 3.7 3.6 4.1 2.6 2.7 3.3 2.8 2.8 2.3 2.4 2.7Mean 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.2 1.4 1.0 0.9 1.5 0.7 0.5 0.6Dirty 3.7 5.0 5.4 4.8 5.4 4.2 N/A N/A 4.3 N/A N/A N/AClean 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.6Mean 1.8 1.9 2.8 2.8 5.2 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.9 0.5 0.8Dirty 2.9 3.6 5.4 4.6 9.6 4.9 N/A N/A 3.0 N/A N/A N/AClean 1.5 1.6 2.2 2.4 3.6 1.2 1.3 1.2 0.9 1.9 0.5 0.8Mean 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.4Dirty 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 N/A N/A 0.2 N/A N/A N/AClean 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.4Mean 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2Dirty 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.1 N/A N/A 0.7 N/A N/A N/AClean 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2Mean 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.1Dirty 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.5 N/A N/A 0.3 N/A N/A N/AClean 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.1

AORGA

ASOIL

ASO4

ANH4

A25

AORGB

DOMAINSMay-98

PM25

ANO3

Chemical composition of PM2.5, July 1998

SPECIES Mean/Dirty/Clean I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XIIMean 10.1 8.7 9.9 11.2 12.5 7.6 8.0 7.8 6.0 7.0 4.0 4.5Dirty 25.4 24.3 24.4 26.7 28.4 23.6 26.9 25.3 N/A N/A N/A N/AClean 8.4 7.0 7.7 8.9 10.1 5.9 6.0 5.9 6.0 7.0 4.0 4.5Mean 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0Dirty 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/AClean 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0Mean 5.0 4.3 4.5 5.7 4.3 3.6 4.1 4.2 3.1 2.9 2.1 2.4Dirty 13.7 13.7 14.5 16.9 14.0 11.3 14.4 17.3 N/A N/A N/A N/AClean 4.1 3.3 3.5 4.0 3.3 3.0 2.9 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.1 2.4Mean 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.5Dirty 4.5 4.4 4.7 4.1 5.1 4.1 4.4 3.9 N/A N/A N/A N/AClean 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.5Mean 2.2 1.8 2.5 2.5 5.1 1.8 1.7 1.4 1.0 1.9 0.6 0.7Dirty 4.7 3.8 4.0 3.6 8.1 5.8 5.2 3.8 N/A N/A N/A N/AClean 1.9 1.6 2.2 2.4 4.6 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.9 0.6 0.7Mean 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.6Dirty 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/AClean 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.6Mean 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2Dirty 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 N/A N/A N/A N/AClean 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2Mean 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.1Dirty 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/AClean 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.1

July-98 DOMAINS

PM25

ANO3

AORGA

ASOIL

ASO4

ANH4

A25

AORGB

Correlation coefficients between observed and modelled data

SUB-DOMAINS Month Species

I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII

Ozone 0.88 0.90 0.70 0.76 0.85 0.67 N/A 0.77 0.83 0.70 0.88 0.84

May

PM25 N/A 0.77 0.88 0.79 0.86 0.78 N/A N/A 0.79 0.54 N/A N/A

Ozone 0.78 0.86 0.62 0.61 0.83 0.69 N/A 0.74 0.77 0.57 0.59 0.78

Jun

e

PM25 N/A 0.91 0.83 0.59 0.79 0.80 N/A N/A 0.61 0.58 N/A N/A

Ozone 0.78 0.89 0.85 0.90 0.85 0.69 N/A 0.88 0.83 0.75 0.68 0.90

July

PM25 N/A 0.90 0.83 0.84 0.89 0.92 N/A N/A 0.56 0.91 N/A N/A

Ozone 0.72 0.74 0.62 0.71 0.74 0.58 N/A 0.71 0.77 0.80 0.79 0.85

Au

g

PM25 N/A 0.78 0.65 0.70 0.43 0.66 N/A N/A 0.74 0.77 N/A N/A

Ozone 0.70 0.74 0.50 0.67 0.57 0.45 N/A 0.72 0.78 0.47 0.31 0.68

Se

pt

PM25 N/A 0.78 0.81 0.75 0.80 0.80 N/A N/A 0.82 0.68 N/A N/A

Percent change in Windsor with Ontario emissions eliminated

(a)

-7.0

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-1.0

0.0

%

Mean -2.7 -0.8 -2.5 -4.8 -1.1

Dirty ( > 65 ppb) -1.9 -0.7 -1.1 -1.4 -1.2

Clean ( < 65 ppb) -2.8 -0.8 -3.0 -6.0 -1.1

may june july aug sept

-30.0

-25.0

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-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

%

Mean -19.6 -15.2 -18.4 -23.7 -18.9

Dirty ( > 20 ug/m^3) -5.9 -4.9 -6.8 -2.3 -5.7

Clean ( < 20 ug/m^3) -22.3 -15.5 -19.6 -24.4 -20.4


OOzone

PPM2.5

Percent change in the GTA with Ontario emissions eliminated

(a)

-20.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

%

Mean 3.1 0.1 -0.7 -2.4 7.2

Dirty ( > 65 ppb) -17.1 -14.9 -6.4 -4.6 -2.5

Clean ( < 65 ppb) 4.5 1.7 0.3 -2.2 7.9


-70.0

-60.0

-50.0

-40.0

-30.0

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

%

Mean -53.7 -60.8 -57.3 -58.5 -54.7

Dirty ( > 20 ug/m^3) -46.8 -57.6 -35.8 -54.9 -38.7

Clean ( < 20 ug/m^3) -56.2 -62.0 -60.5 -59.9 -58.7


Ozone

PPM2.5

Conclusions• The modelling assessment has been performed for both

ozone and PM2.5 over a 5 month period in 1998

• Although there were some discrepancies between modelled and observed data for individual days and episodes, the differences appear to be random due to small shifts in the meteorological fields.

• The model/monitoring comparisons indicate that the model performed well overall.

• Zeroing-out Ontario’s emissions showed small impacts in southeastern Ontario with larger influences on PM2.5 in the GTA/Hamilton areas and on ozone east of the GTA.

Documents

Andrei Chtcherbakov, Robert Bloxam, David Yap, Duncan Fraser, Neville Reid, Sunny Wong