and the periphery (E.A. Brett) · A. Rahman, P. Wignaraja) . Strategies of implementation of rural development programmes in India ... Unity for a new order (Julius K. Nyerere)

international foundation for development alternatives

fondation internationale pour un autre developpement

fundacion internacional para alternativas de desarrollo

I F D A DOSSIER 5 , MARCH 1979

C O N T E N T S

INTRODUCTORY NOTE

B U I L D I N G BLOCKS / MATERIAUX

. Bhoomi Sena - A s t r u g g l e f o r p e o p l e ' s power (G.V.S. de S i l v a , N. Mehta, A. Rahman, P. Wignara ja)

. S t r a t e g i e s o f imp lementa t ion o f r u r a l development programmes i n I n d i a (T . K. Moul i k )

. Choix @nerg@t iques e t c h o i x de s o c i @ t @ (Jean-Char les Hourcade)

. The I n t e r n a t i o n a l Monetary Fund, t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l monetary system and the p e r i p h e r y (E.A. B r e t t )

. Gold, t h e I n t e r n a t i o n a l Monetary Fund t h e t h e T h i r d World (Leelananda de S i l v a )

MARKINGS

. U n i t y f o r a new o r d e r ( J u l i u s K. Nyerere)

INTERACTIONS

. Towards t h e New I n t e r n a t i o n a l Order th rough c o l l e c t i v e s e l f - r e l i a n c e and a s t r a t e g y o f n e g o t i a t i o n and c o n f r o n t a t i o n (Chakravar th i Raghavan)

. E r a d i c a t i o n o f p o v e r t i e s (Car los A. Mallmann)

. V i l l a g e i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n as a key component i n i n t e g r a t e d r u r a l development ( V i v i a n Craddock W i l l i a m s )

. A (Norwegian) g r a s s r o o t v iew o f t h e p r e p a r a t i o n s f o r a new i n t e r n a t i o n a l development s t r a t e g y (Grethe Vaerno)

. The World Bank (Joseph C o l l i n s and Frances Moore Lapp@) w i t h a comment by B.A. Jenny

FOOTNOTES / NOTES

Contributions t o the I F D A Dossier are presented under the so le r e spons ib i l i t y o f t h e i r authors. They are not covered by any copyright. They may be r e v - duced o r transmitted i n any form or by any means u i t hou t permission of Lize authors or IFDA. I n case of repr in t , ueknouZedgemen~ of source and receipL of a copy uould he appreciated.

French and Spanish abs trac ts o f the major paper>s appear on p.2 of each paper.

executive committee : ismail-sahri cbdaila. ahmed hen solah, gamani corea, mahhub ul hnq (GO-chairman), enrique iglesias, ion meijer, marc nerfm (president), justinion f weyemamu, iqnocy sachs, Juan somavia, maurice f. strong (co-chairman), nqa thorsson

secretariat 2, place du marche, ch - 1260 nycn. switzerland; telephone 41 (22) 61 8 2 8 2 ; telex 28840 lfda ch: cable fipad, geneva

[FDA DOSSIER 5 , MARCH 1979

INTRODUCTORY NOTE

Has the "interaction started?

While it may still be too early to be sure, a few contributions

have reached IFDA, and some appear in this Dossier. They include

communications from Argentina, Zambia, Norway and the United States.

This may offer an opportunity to state again what the IFDA Dossiers

are meant to be, a seminar by correspondence, a tribune where people

- including those closely linked with IFDA - express themselves freely, in their personal capacity.

From time to time, one of us at Nyon will contribute to the Dossier.

It happened in February, it happens again this month. One of us may

also wish to react immediately to a communication - which is the case this time. This does not mean that other building blocks,

interactions, or even markings and footnotes, have not provoked

interest (of course) and/or dissent.

There is no attempt to reach a consensus. There is no such thing,

at this stage, as an IFDA position.

Our primary ambition is to stimulate discussion, to initiate the

mutually educating dialogue which is at the center of the Third

System project. Thus we hope to promote a better understanding of

the issues at stake.

We expect that readers will agree, disagree, as we ourselves do,

or (preferably) elaborate further on a paper or an idea. Once

more, please write.

I F D A DOSSIER 5 , MARCH 1979

B U I L D I N G BLOCKS

BHOOMI SENA - A STRUGGLE FOR PEOPLE'S POICR

G.V.S.de S i l v a , N.Mehta, A.Rahman,P.Wignaraja c/o Dag Hammarskjold Foundat ion I/ Over S l o t t s g a t a n 2 752 20 Uppsala, Sweden

O r i g i n a l language: E n g l i s h --

A b s t r a c t : The paper h i g h l i g h t s t h e method and s i g n i f i c a n c e o f t h e Bhoomi Sena movement i n J u n g l e p a t t i i n Maharashtra S t a t e , I n d i a . Excerpts f rom t h e s tudy "Bhoomi Sena: a s t r u g g l e f o r p e o p l e ' s power" have been used t o c o n s t r u c t the theme. Sec t ions 1 and 2 ske tch t h e h i s t o r i c a l background d i s c u s s i n g i n some d e t a i l t h r e e e a r l y i n t e r v e n t i o n s and the impact o r lac!: o f impact on t h e l i v e s o f t h e A d i v a s i s . S e c t i o n 3 a t tempts t o p l a c e t h e Bhoomi Sena movement w i t h i n a p e r s p e c t i v e o f S o c i a l Change. The f i n a l s e c t i o n d iscusses t h e o p t i o n s b e f o r e the I n d i a n b o u r g e o i s i e and t h e f u t u r e p o s s i b i l i t i e s o f Bhoomi Sana.

RHOOMI SENA - UNE LUTTE POUR L E POUVOIR P O P U L A T E

Resume

Cet a r t i c l e met en l u m i e r e l a methode e t l a s i g n i f i c a t i o n du mouvement Bhoomi Sena J u n g l e p a t t i , E t a t de Maharashtra, Inde . Des e x t r a i t s de l ' e t u d e 'Bhoomi Sena: une l u t t e p o u r l e p o u v o i r p o p u l a i r e " o n t 6 t e u t i l i s e s pour e t o f f e r c e t t e p r e s e n t a t i o n . Les s e c t i o n s 1 e t 2 c o n s t i t u e n t une esquisse du c o n t e x t e h i s t o r i q u e e t examinent t r o i s i n t e r v e n t i o n s a n t e r i e u r e s , de meme que l e u r e f f e t ou absence d ' e f f e t , s u r l a v i e des p o p u l a t i o n s concernees, 1es A d i v a s i s . La s e c t i o n 3 s ' e f f o r c e de p l a c e r l e rnouvement Bhoomis Sena dans l a p e r s p e c t i v e du changement s o c i a l . La s e c t i o n f i n a l e examine 1es c h o i x o f f e r t s A l a b o u r g e o i s i e i nd ienne e t l e s p e r s p e c t i v e s de Bhoomi Sena.

BHOOMI SENA : UNA LUCHA POR E L PODER POPULAR

Resumen

E l i n fo rme hace des tacar e l metodo y s i g n i f i c a d o de l movimiento Bhoomi Sena en J u n g l e p a t t i , estado de Maharashtra, I n d i a . Se lecc iones de l e s t u d i o "Bhoomi Sena: Una lucha p o r e l poder p o p u l a r " han s i d o u t i l i z a d a s para c o n s t r u i r e l tema. Las secc iones 1 y 2 esbozan 10s antecedentes h i s t o r i c o s y p resen tan en d e t a l l e t r e s i n t e r v e n c i o n e s a n t e r i o r e s y su impactn;) f a l t a de impacto, en l a v i d a de 1as popu lac iones en c u e s t i o n , 10s A d i v a s i s . La secc ion 3 t r a t a de c o l o c a r a1 movimiento Bhoomi Sena d e n t r o de l a p e r s p e c t i v a de l cambio s o c i a l . La t l l t i m a secc ion p resen ta l a s opc iones que con f ron tan l a bu rgues ia I n d i a y 1as p e r s - p e c t i v a s para Bhoomi Sena.

l/ See page 16 ( v o i r page 16 - vease pagina 16) -

G.V.S. de S i l v a , N. Mehta, A . Rahman, P . W igna ra ja

I. I n t r o d u c t i o n : Two Faces of "Development"

1. Bare ly two hours d r i v e from t h e ul t ra-modern m e t r o p o l i s of Bombay ( c a p i t a l of t h e S t a t e of Maharashtra) and hugging t h e f u t u r i s t i c a tomic power p l a n t of Tarapur i n Thana d i s t r i c t is a s t r i p of f o r e s t l and ( " j u n g l e p a t t i " ) where time has s t o o d s t i l l . T h i s f o r e s t - o r r a t h e r what i s l e f t of i t a f t e r a hundred y e a r s of r u t h l e s s p lunder by t h e o u t s i d e r s - i s t h e home of a d i v a s i s , a g e n e r i c term l o o s e l y used t o d e s c r i b e t h e a b o r i g i n e s of I n d i a . I n t h e m u l t i - r a c i a l c a s t e - f r a c t u r e d I n d i a n s o c i e t y , t h e a d i v a s i s ( 7 % of p o p u l a t i o n o r almost 50 m i l l i o n s c a t t e r e d throughout I n d i a ) r e p r e s e n t a n u n a s s i m i l a t e d mass, c l i n g i n g t o t r i b a l o r g a n i z a t i o n and t r a d i t i o n s , who have over thousands of y e a r s r e s i s t e d t h e p h y s i c a l and c u l t u r a l ons laugh t and dominat ion of t h e c a s t e Hindu s o c i e t y , l a r g e l y by r e t r e a t i n g t o f o r e s t e d , mountainous and o f t e n i n a c c e s s i b l e a r e a s . Though o f t e n autonomous and proud communities p r e s e r v i n g t h e t r i b a l h e r i t a g e , they a r e t h e most depr ived s t r a t a of I n d i a n s o c i e t y .

2 . With t h e r a p i d growth of Bombay c i t y and of a s e r i e s of s a t e l l i t e towns i n t h e r e g i o n , t h e i s o l a t i o n of t h e Thana a d i v a s i a r e a h a s , however, v i r t u a l l y ended. The e n t i r e b e l t i s c r i s s - c r o s s e d wi th major highways and a l l -wea ther r o a d s , r i v e r t r a n s p o r t and a r a i l w a y l i n e . The p e n e t r a t i o n of t h e t r a n s p o r t network has a purpose: e x p l o i t a t i o n of t h e r i c h n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e s of t h e reg ion , mainly f o r e s t produce and n a t u r a l fodder g r a s s . Tens of m i l l i o n s of Rupees worth of produce is expor ted o u t of t h e a r e a and t h e o r n a t e mansions i n t h e l o c a l towns b e a r test imony t o t h e p r o f i t a b i l i t y of t h e e n t e r p r i s e .

3 . Away from t h e market towns and j u s t o f f t h e highways, however, t h e r e is a sudden d i s c o n t i n u i t y i n t ime. S c a t t e r e d haphazardly amids t paddy f i e l d s , h i l l s and f o r e s t enc laves a r e dozens of i s o l a t e d s m a l l v i l l a g e s , c l u s t e r s of s m a l l h u t s wi th mud w a l l s , tha tched r o o f s and almost b a r e i n t e r i o r s . Highways g i v e way t o f i e l d and f o r e s t p a t h s and a t b e s t t o c a r t t r a c k s . While t h e a tomic power p l a n t a t Tarapur s u p p l i e s a s i z e a b l e p a r t of Bombay's e l e c t r i c supp ly , h a r d l y a few of t h e a d i v a s i v i l l a g e s have e l e c t r i c i t y o r a conven ien t s o u r c e of d r i n k i n g w a t e r . Emaciated half-naked c h i l d r e n and p remature ly aged men and women complete t h e p i c t u r e of d e s o l a t i o n - t h e o t h e r f a c e of "development".

4 . Four decades ago, t h e a r e a , l i t t l e se rved by a communication network, was a n i s l a n d of feuda l i sm - border ing on s l a v e r y - i n t h e mids t of a c o a s t a l r eg ion deve lop ing t h e c a p i t a l i s t mode of p roduc t ion . Now a f t e r f o r t y y e a r s , t h e c o n t a c t has g r e a t l y m u l t i p l i e d , t h e i s o l a t i o n and o v e r t f euda l i sm have

ended and p roduc t ion and expor t have i n c r e a s e d . The towns i n t h e a r e a a r e t h e o u t p o s t s of t h e o u t s i d e world and e s s e n t i a l l y e x t e n s i o n s of Bombay c i t y i n h a b i t e d by non-ad ivas i s and dominated by non-Maharashtrian e x p l o i t e r c l a s s e s . But through a l l t h i s "development", t h i r t y y e a r s a f t e r independence, t h e l i f e of the a d i v a s i remains e s s e n t i a l l y untouched. P e r p e t u a l s t a r - v a t i o n , s e a s o n a l m i g r a t i o n i n s e a r c h of work t o s u r v i v e , i l l i t e r a c y , d i s e a s e and bondages of o l d and new kind c o n t i n u e t o plague t h e a d i v a s i l i f e - and con t inue t o feed t h e p i t y , s o l i c i t u d e and c h a r i t a b l e concern of t h e "developers" who c h e r i s h t h e r o l e of t h e benevolen t guard ians of t h e " p r i m i t i v e , promiscuous and i r r e s p o n s i b l e " a d i v a s i s .

But now, f i n a l l y , t h e a d i v a s i s a r e responding n o t w i t h submiss iveness , f a t a l i s m and g r a t i t u d e f o r "char i ty" , b u t w i t h a m i l i t a n c y and s e l f - c o n f i d e n c e growing o u t of a n awakening consc iousness . The e x p r e s s i o n of t h i s f i g h t a g a i n s t i n d i g n i - ties, i n j u s t i c e and e x p l o i t a t i o n is a spontaneous ind igenous movement named Bhoomi Sena (Land Army) which is f o r g i n g t h e a d i v a s i s and t h e o t h e r ' p o o r i n t h e r e g i o n i n t o a u n i t e d power- f u l f o r c e determined t o c o n f r o n t t h e e x p l o i t e r s and t h e o p p r e s s o r s i n a s u s t a i n e d s t r u g g l e . P e o p l e ' s Power is be- g inn ing t o emerge i n j u n g l e p a t t i .

The Bhoomi Sena s t u d g i s an a t t empt t o understand t h e s i g n i f i - cance of Bhoomi Sena, t h e meaning of P e o p l e ' s Power and t h e p rocess of S o c i a l Change.

Adivas i l i f e i s a c o n s t a n t s e a r c h f o r work j u s t t o s u r v i v e from day t o day. Depending on t h e season , they work i n t h e paddy f i e l d s (June-September), c u t fodder g r a s s (October- November) and work a s f o r e s t l a b o u r e r s , road c o n s t r u c t i o n workers e t c . i n and o u t of t h e r e g i o n f o r t h e r e s t of t h e y e a r . The f o u r t o s i x months of t h e y e a r t h a t they have t o m i g r a t e s e a r c h i n g f o r work o u t s i d e t h e a r e a a r e d e s c r i b e d by them g r a p h i c a l l y b u t p a t h e t i c a l l y a s "going o u t t o su rv ive" This l i f e c y c l e a p p l i e s t o most a d i v a s i s a s even t h e s m a l l amounts of land t h a t some possess h a r d l y produces enough r i c e t o s e e them through t h e year - p a r t i c u l a r l y a f t e r they have p a i d back t h e money l e n d e r s t h e i n e i v t a b l e consumption l o a n , seed l o a n e t c . a t u s u r i o u s r a t e s of i n t e r e s t .

The day on which a n a d i v a s i does n o t work h e does n o t have food and were i t n o t f o r t h e t r i b a l custom of mutual s h a r i n g and s o l i d a r i t y , h e would s t a r v e . The absence of s t a r v a t i o n d e a t h s , which would b e i n e v i t a b l e i n communities wi th more i n d i v i d u a l i s t i c customs, can be a t t r i b u t e d t o t h e c o l l e c t i v i s t communal t r a d i t i o n s which have s t i l l surv ived among t h e a d i v a s i s i n s p i t e of c o n t a c t w i t h o t h e r v a l u e s .

. To be pub l i shed i n Development Dialogue 1979: 1 Uppsala , Sweden.

9 . By borrowing a few hundred rupees "mariage loan" a young a d i v a s i and h i s b r i d e become bonded l a b o u r e r s , working f o r t h e landowner cum money-lender j u s t f o r meagre food r a t i o n s . They may work 20 y e a r s b e f o r e t h e l o a n i s " r e p a i d " ; q u i t e o f t e n t h e i r n e x t g e n e r a t i o n c o n t i n u e s i n unbroken bondage.

1 0 . The n o n - a d i v a s i s o f t h e r e g i o n may be c l a s s i f i e d i n t o two broad g r o u p s . The f i r s t a r e t h e M a h a r a s h t r i a n c a s t e of k u n b i s , who a r e a c u l t i v a t o r c a s t e . A few decades ago , unde r f e u d a l d i s - p e n s a t i o n , t hey were e i t h e r s m a l l i ndependen t p e a s a n t pro- p r i e t o r s o r t e n a n t s of t h e f e u d a l l o r d s . With l a n d p a s s i n g t o t h e t i l l e r t h rough l and r e fo rms twenty y e a r s ago , t h e kunb i s became owner c u l t i v a t o r s . Over t h e y e a r s , t h rough a c c e s s t o r e - s o u r c e s , s a v i n g s , a c c u m u l a t i o n , a c q u i s i t i o n of more l and and e x p l o i t a t i o n of a d i v a s i s t h e y have become a r e l a t i v e l y p ros - p e r o u s and dominant c l a s s , p a r t i c u l a r l y a t t h e v i l l a g e l e v e l .

11. The o t h e r g roup , ma in ly non-Maharash t r i ans , a r e t h e t r a d e r s cum money l e n d e r s ( s awkar s ) who o v e r a p e r i o d of 30-40 y e a r s h a v e a l s o become l andowner s t h r o u g h a p r o c e s s of u s u r i o u s l e n d i n g and c h e a t i n g of t h e i l l i t e r a t e a d i v a s i s . They g e n e r a l l y l i v e i n t h e towns and o p e r a t e a t t h e v i l l a g e l e v e l t h rough t h e i r a g e n t s .

1 2 . Both of t h e s e g roups domina te t h e l o c a l p o l i t i c a l and economic i n s t i t u t i o n s w i t h t h e kunb i s more i n f l u e n t i a l a t t h e v i l l a g e l e v e l and t h e sawkar s a t t h e t a l u q and d i s t r i c t l e v e l .

1 3 . On t h e whole t h e p r o d u c t i o n sys t em is i n e f f i c i e n t and n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e s a r e u n d e r u t i l i z e d . The sawkar s a r e c o n t e n t t o g e t one c r o p o f r i c e d u r i n g t h e r a i n y s e a s o n ; some p r e f e r t o l e t n a t u r a l g r a s s g rowon t h e f i e l d s t o growing r i c e which demands more l a b o u r , i n v e s t m e n t and a t t e n t i o n . The e n t i r e a r e a p r e s e n t s a p i c t u r e o f i n d i f f e r e n t a g r i c u l t u r e .

11. E x t e r n a l I n t e r v e n t i o n s i n A d i v a s i Land

14. Up t o mid 4 0 ' s t h e e n t i r e a r e a was i n e f f e c t a f e u d a l Kingdom o f t h e sawkar s i n which t h e y h e l d u n d i s p u t e d a u t h o r i t y o v e r t h e l i f e and p r o p e r t y of a d i v a s i s . While t h e B r i t i s h C i v i l S e r v a n t s d e s c r i b e d t h e sys t em a s inhuman t h e r e was l i t t l e e f f o r t t o i n t e r v e n e i n t h e s i t u a t i o n .

1 5 . By l a t e 3 0 ' s and e a r l y 4 0 ' s however, t h e f e u d a l l o r d s were r a p i d l y becoming an anachron i sm i n Western I n d i a . The B r i t i s h R a j was i n i t s l a s t d e c a d e . The t i d e o f n a t i o n a l i s m had thrown up i n i t s wake a new c o u n t e r v a i l i n g power a g a i n s t t h e B r i t i s h o r g a n i z e d by t h e Congres s P a r t y , and by and l a r g e l e d by a non- feuda l newly educa ted midd le c l a s s . I n t h e economic

a r e n a t o o t h e f e u d a l s were loos ing ground; new c l a s s e s of I n d u s t r i a l i s t s and t r a d e r s had amassed enormous f o r t u n e s , p a r t i c u l a r l y dur ing t h e second war p e r i o d . In 1947 t h e B r i t i s h r u l e i n I n d i a ended.

16. With t h e h i s t o r i c economic and p o l i t i c a l changes i n t h e o u t s i d e world, some reforms over time i n t h e sawkar kingdom were i n e v i t a b l e . I n s t e a d , unexpec ted ly , t h e system suddenly c o l l a p s e d , thanks t o a spasmodic o u t b u r s t of t h e h i t h e r t o t i m i d , l i f e l e s s and p a t r o n i s e d a d i v a s i h i m s e l f . I n l e s s than two y e a r s t h e a d i v a s i s overthrew t h e i r mas te r s i n a t o t a l l y unexpected d i s p l a y of f u r y , energy and spontaneous m o b i l i s a t i o n . It was t h e Communists, s t i l l i n t h e i r m i l l i t a n t phase, who c a t a l y s e d t h e a d i v a s i r e v o l t much t o t h e dismay of t h e Congress P a r t y which was now t h e formal power of t h e coun t ry . The Communist method was s imple and f o r t h r i g h t . They :- ( a ) went from v i l l a g e t o v i l l a g e l i v i n g w i t h t h e a d i v a s i s and shared t h e i r food , h u t s and t a l e s of woe; (b) t o l d them t h a t fo rced l abour and bonded labour were i l l e g a l ; ( c ) a s s u r e d them t h a t many people o u t s i d e would suppor t them; and (d) by s u c c e s s f u l l y d e f y i n g t h e sawkars i n f r o n t of t h e a s t o n i s h e d a d i v a s i s c r e a t e d f o r them an a l t e r n a t i v e focus of c r e d i b l e power.

17. The r e v o l t s h a t t e r e d t h e world of t h e sawkars . While t h e S t a t e i n t e r v e n e d t o p a s s i f y t h e a r e a bo th through impos i t ion of law and o r d e r and through long term programs of educa t ion , s o c i a l reform, e t c . They had no i n t e n t i o n of r e s t o r i n g t h e f e u d a l o r d e r . I n s t e a d , i n t h e a f t e r m a t h of t h e r e v o l t , newly emerged p roducer and non-producer c l a s s e s became t h e dominant power of t h e a r e a , l e a v i n g a d i v a s i s s c a r c e l y b e t t e r o f f than they had been before t h e r e v o l t . Whatever land had passed t o t h e i r hands fo l lowing l i m i t e d tenancy and land reforms r a p i d l y passed i n t o t h e hands of t h e new c l a s s e s through t h e f a m i l i a r mechanisms of money l e n d i n g , c h e a t i n g , e t c . The end r e s u l t of t h e combinat ion of d i r e c t S t a t e i n i t i a t e d measures and t h e v o l u n t a r y Gandhian (Sarvodaya) i n t e r v e n t i o n s was a h i g h l y e x p l o i t a t i v e s i t u a t i o n , now organ ized through more s u b t l e means by t h e new dominant c l a s s e s .

18. By 1970 t h e po l i t i co-economic p rocess of t h e l a s t q u a r t e r c e n t u r y had produced a complex c l a s s spectrum i n t h e a r e a q u i t e u n l i k e t h e f e u d a l s i t u a t i o n of 1945. Some c l a s s e s had almost d i sappeared o r been rendered impotent ( f e u d a l l o r d s ) ; some had ga thered s t r e n g t h and were s t r u g g l i n g f o r t o t a l dominance (kunbi: r i c h p e a s a n t s ) ; some had been born i n t h e vacuum c r e a t e d by t h e d e c l i n e of t h e o l d c l a s s e s (money l e n d e r - t r a d e r sawkar) ; and f i n a l l y t h e l a n d l e s s and poor peasan t a d i v a s i s had con t inued t o occupy t h e bottom p o s i t i o n . Thus t h e i r o n i c r e s u l t of t h e communist i n s p i r e d f l a s h r e v o l t

was t o c r e a t e c o n d i t i o n s f o r t h e development of c a p i t a l i s m i n t h e r e g i o n . The p a t e r n a l i s t i c Sarvodaya i n t e r v e n t i o n s which fol lowed i n t h e a f t e rmath of t h e r e v o l t had g r e a t l y helped t o s t a b i l i s e t h e new system of e x p l o i t a t i o n . Both t h e s e e x t e r n a l i n t e r v e n t i o n s f a i l e d t o awaken t h e consc iousness of t h e a d i v a s i s and i n s t e a d tended t o s u b s t i t u t e one kind of dependency by a n o t h e r .

19 . By 1970 t h e l e f t p a r t i e s i n I n d i a had begun t o o r g a n i z e d i r e c t a c t i o n s by t h e p e a s a n t s t o r e g a i n l a n d s which had been usurped by t h e o l d and new e x p l o i t e r c l a s s e s . I n t h e Pa lghar a r e a t h e S o c i a l i s t P a r t y o rgan ized a " land grab" a g i t a t i o n a g a i n s t a c h a r i t a b l e t r u s t which he ld hundreds of a c r e s of l and . Many a d i v a s i s p a r t i c i p a t e d i n t h e movement and were a r r e s t e d a long wi th t h e s o c i a l i s t s . I n j a i l t h e a d i v a s i s r e a l i s e d however, t h a t t h e s e a c t i o n s were merely symbolic and w h i l e they had landed i n j a i l t h e i r l ands were s t i l l i p t h e hands of sawkars . They a l s o r e a l i s e d t h a t t h e s o c i a l i s t s had no r e a l d e s i r e t o o r g a n i z e t h e a d i v a s i s t o recover t h e s e l ands i n a v i l l a g e by v i l l a g e a c t i o n a s they probably f e a r e d t h e i m p l i c a t i o n s of such a n a r o u s a l of t h e a d i v a s i s .

20. The a d i v a s i s were d i s i l l u s i o n e d wi th t h e o u t s i d e p o l i t i c a l p a r t i e s and dec ided t o form t h e i r own o r g a n i z a t i o n named Bhoomi Sena o r Land Army. As soon a s they were r e l e a s e d from j a i l they went t o t h e peop le i n a v i l l a g e by v i l l a g e d i a l o g u e , i n v e s t i g a t e d t h e l and s i t u a t i o n , d i s c u s s e d p o s s i b l e a c t i o n w i t h t h e peop le and soon organ ized them t o c o l l e c t i v e l y recover t h e l a n d s which had been t h e i r s . The movement sp read t o a l a r g e number of v i l l a g e s .

21. Having recovered t h e l a n d s , however, t h e a d i v a s i s had n e i t h e r t h e means n o r t h e f i n a n c e t o c u l t i v a t e them. They tu rned a g a i n f o r h e l p t o t h e s o c i a l i s t s who provided a t e c h n i c a l a d v i s o r - a s o c i a l worker - with exper ience i n modern a g r i c u l t u r e . Through h i s a s s i s t a n c e high y i e l d i n g v a r i e t i e s were in t roduced by some fa rmers i n t h e a r e a and t h e banks suppor ted t h e programme. While t h e r e was i n c r e a s e i n p roduc t ion t h e programme and i ts account ing g o t t o o complex f o r t h e a d i v a s i s t o comprehend and g r a d u a l l y they l o s t both c o n t r o l of and i n t e r e s t i n t h e a c t i v i t i e s . I n f a c t they became pawns i n a t e c h n o c r a t i c experiment based a g a i n on a n e l i t i s t approach.

111. E o o m i Sena, Its Method and S i g n i f i c a n c e

22. Learning from a l l t h e s e e x p e r i e n c e s Bhoomi Sena dec ided t o a b j u r e any dominat ing i n t e r v e n t i o n from o u t s i d e and t o con- c e n t r a t e on m o b i l i z i n g t h e people i n a s e l f - r e l i a n t manner. The i s s u e s f o r m o b i l i z a t i o n r e l a t e d t o t h e l e g a l r i g h t s of t h e a d i v a s i s : f r e e i n g of bonded l a b o u r , implementat ion of

t h e minimum wage law and en fo rcemen t of t r a d i t i o n a l a d i v a s i s r i g h t s i n c o l l e c t i n g f o r e s t p roduce e t c . The p r o c e s s o f m o b i l i z a t i o n was based on i n v e s t i g a t i o n by t h e peop le them- s e l v e s o f t h e i r s o c i a l s i t u a t i o n which h i g h t e n e d t h e i r cons - c i o u s n e s s and awareness o f t h e r a t i o n a l e f o r a c t i o n . I n d i - v i d u a l p e r c e p t i o n s t h u s became c o l l e c t i v e c o n c e p t i o n s t h r o u g h a p r o c e s s o f c o n s c i e n t i z a t i o n . F u r t h e r , m o b i l i z a t i o n and s p o n t a n e o u s a s s e r t i o n was g i v e n a form th rough v i l l a g e o r g a n i z a t i o n of t h e you th (Tarum Mandal) which became t h e forum f o r d i s c u s s i o n a t t h e v i l l a g e l e v e l .

23. Unhampered by e x t e r n a l domina t ion t h e a d i v a s i s t h rough Bhoomi Sena h a v e t h u s deve loped i n t h e l a s t few y e a r s a new method o f o r g a n i z i n g themse lves f o r a c t i o n i n a d e n o c r a t i c and c o n s c i o u s manner . Bonded l a b o u r sys t em h a s been a b o l i s h e d ; s t r u g g l e f o r minimum wages i s s l o w l y s u c c e e d i n g ; f e a r o f t h e sawkar s h a s l a r g e l y d i s a p p e a r e d ; c o n s c i o u s n e s s and u n i t y of t h e a d i v a s i s h a s been enhanced ; and a s t r o n g o r g a n i z a t i o n - Bhoomi Sena - h a s been f o r g e d by t h e p e o p l e t hemse lves t o s e r v e a s a n i n s t r u m e n t of t h e i r c o n t i n u i n g s t r u g g l e . Dependency h a s b e e n r e p l a c e d by s e l f - a s s e r t i o n . The movement i s r a p i d l y s p r e a d i n g t h r o u g h o u t t h e a d i v a s i b e l t and m a t u r i n g th rough s t r u g g l e and r e f l e c t i o n .

24 . The l i b e r a t i o n and development o f s p o n t a n e i t y i s a ma jo r theme i n t h e Bhoomi Sena method. S p o n t a n e i t y h a s d i f f e r e n t l e v e l s . S p o n t a n e i t y , l i k e a l l c o n c e p t s i n d i a l e c t i c a l l o g i c , h a s no a b s o l u t e meaning, and may b e d e f i n e d on ly i n r e l a t i o n t o i ts o p p o s i t e w i t h which i t c o n s t i t u t e s a u n i t y . T h i s u n i t y grows and a t some p o i n t changes i n q u a l i t y . S p o n t a n e i t y t h e n a c q u i r e s a new d e f i n i t i o n , i n r e l a t i o n t o a new o p p o s i t e , t o g e t h e r c o n s t i t u t i n g u n i t y of a h i g h e r o r d e r . T h i s p r o c e s s c o n t i n u e s .

25 . The Bhoomi Sena method - f rom m o b i l i z a t i o n th rough c o n s c i e n t i - z a t i o n t o o r g a n i z a t i o n - r e v e a l s a n i n n e r l o g i c t h a t i n t e g r a t e s t h e t h r e e e s s e n t i a l e l e m e n t s i n i t i n s u c h a d i a l e c t i c a l development o f s p o n t a n e i t y i n human a c t i o n .

26. I n i t i a l l y , s p o n t a n e i t y i s p r i m o r d i a l , u n c o n s c i o u s i t s e l f and unmobi l i zed by any c o n s c i o u s f o r c e . S p o n t a n e i t y a t t h i s s t a g e i s t h e o p p o s i t e o f mobilization. But i t c an s t i l l a s s e r t , t h rough e r u p t i o n . T h i s is unmobi l i zed a s s e r t i o n .

2 7 . When a c o n s c i o u s f o r c e ( e . g . , a P a r t y , o r Vanguard Group) m o b i l i z e s u n c o n s c i o u s m a s s e s , s p o n t a n e i t y changes q u a l i t y . The masses a r e now m o b i l i z e d f o r i s s u e s conce ived by a n e x t e r n a l c o n s c i o u s f o r c e . But once m o b i l i z e d . t hey may s t i l l a c t s p o n t a n e o u s l y . i n manner and d i r e c t i o n s beyond t h e d e s i g n s of t h e f o r c e t h a t m o b i l i z e s them. Such s p o n t a n e o u s a c t i o n may n o t h e c o n s c i o u s . S p o n t a n e i t y i s now t h e o p p o s i t e n o t of m o b i l i z a t i o n which it h a s a b s o r b e d , b u t of c o n s c i e n t i z a t i o n .

Spontaneity again asserts, unconscious, but raised to a higher level by its interaction with a conscious mobilizing force.

The process of conscientization makes the masses conscious. Mobilized and conscious masses may now have an agreed design evolved through consensus; but they may still act beyond the design with no mechanism for changing the consensus. Such mobilized and conscientized spontaneity - spontaneity of a still higher level - is the opposite of organization.

Spontaneity asserts again, now mobilized and conscious, but as yet unorganized.

When conscientization leads to organization, the masses will act consciously and in an organized manner in accordance with their collective decisions. But they may still go beyond an (external) central design. Spontaneity - mobilized, conscious and organized - is now at a higher level of development with centralism as its opposite. This is the stage of management.

If such spontaneity ever absorbs its opposite, i.e., centralism, then both are trans~ended.~

The sequences in the dialectical development of spontaneity (and its opposite) are then as follows:

Spontaneity Unites with, and opposes --

1. Primordial, (eruption) mobilization

2. Mobilized, unconscious conscientization

3. Mobilized and conscious organization

4. Mobilized, conscious and centralization organized (self-management)

Self-management (the highest stage of spontaneity) and its opposite, centralism, together constitute a unity that may he called democratic centralism. In some usage of the term democratic centralism the emphasis is on centralism which is democratic. This may be contrasted with centralist democracy, with the emphasis on democracy which is centralized. Which of the two prevails depends on which aspect of the contradiction is the dominant one.

If ever both democracy and centralism are transcended, then man is non-alienated.

33. The s t a g e s a r e , of c o u r s e . n o t m u t u a l l y e x c l u s i v e b u t c a n i n t e r - p e n e t r a t e and m u t u a l l y r e i n f o r c e each o t h e r T h i s can be s e e n i n Bhoomi Sena where o r g a n i z a t i o n , (o f Tarun Mandals) f o r example , h a s t a k e n p l a c e w i t h d i f f e r e n t d e g r e e s of c u n s c i e n t i - z a t i o n , and t h e l a t t e r h a s c o n t i n u e d a f t e r t h e o r g a n s have been c r e a t e d , p r o v i d i n g now an i n s t i t u t i o n a l i s e d forum f o r c o n s c i e n t i z a t i o n t o c o n t i n u e . However, i n ex t r eme c a s e s where Ta run Mandals have been c r e a t e d a f t e r m o b i l i z a t i o n o n l y w i t h o u t any c o n s c i e n t i z a t i o n , a forward momentum t o t h e p r o c e s s h a s n o t come e a s i l y , and s u c h Ta run Mandals have been seen even t o c o l l a p s e . T h i s i n d i c a t e s t h a t , w h i l e a lower and h i g h e r s t a g e c a n c o - e x i s t and may g i v e a g r e a t e r forward momentum t o t h e p r o c e s s of development o f s p o n t a n e i t y t h a n a s t r i c t l y one- s t age -a t - a - t ime sequence , t h e p rema tu re i m p o s i t i o n of a h i g h e r s t a g e can b e c o u n t e r - p r o d u c t i v e .

34 . The e f f o r t of Bhoomi Sena i s t o d e v e l o p s p o n t a n e i t y i n t o a m o b i l i z e d , c o n s c i o u s and o r g a n i z e d p e o p l e ' s power. In t h e p r o c e s s Bhoomi Sena i s c r e a t i n g i t s own o p p o s i t e - c o u n t e r - v a i l i n g power a g a i n s t Bhoonii Sena i t s e l f i s be ing deve loped a s a c o n s c i o u s n e s s and c u l t u r e and i n s t i t u t i o n a l i s e d i n t h e Tarun Mandals , p e r h a p s e v e n t u a l l y t o become a f e d e r a t i o n of Ta run Mandals. I f t h i s p r o c e s s can i n d e e d c o n t i n u e and ma tu re , Bhoomi Sena may s e e i t s own image i n t h e v e r y c o u n t e r v a i l i n g power i t c r e a t e s a g a i n s t i t s e l f i n which i t may t h u s f i n d i t s h i g h e s t f u l f i l m e n t .

35. While t h i s t r e n d i s v i s i b l e , o p p o s i t e t e n d e n c i e s a r e a l s o t h e r e , such a s d e g e n e r a t i o n of c a d r e s ( e . g . , t h e c a d r e e p i s o d e i n Bagza r i ) n e g a t i v e t e n d e n c i e s i n h e r e n t i n t h e v e r y expans ion o f t h e movement; and t h e p u l l of an i d e o l o g i c a l l y a d v e r s e env i ronmen t . I n view of t h e s e t e n d e n c i e s t h e c o u r s e of Bhoomi S e n a ' s s t r u g g l e f o r p e o p l e ' s power, n u t w i t h s t a n d i n g t h e i n n o v a t i v e c h a r a c t e r o f i t s method, r ema ins u n c e r t a i n . T h i s c o u r s e w i l l a l s o be de t e rmined by t h e d i a l e c t i c s of t h e o b j e c t i v e c o n d i t i o n s i n Bhoomi Sena and i n t h e b r o a d e r r e a l i t y t h a t encompasses i t , t o which we now t u r n .

36. The a d i v a s i r e v o l t of 1945-1947 d e s t r o y e d t h e f e u d a l kingdom o f t h e sawkar s . What a r o s e on i t s r u i n s was n o t a d i v a s i power b u t t h e power of a new non-producing sawkar c l a s s ( t r a d e r s , moneylenders , c o n t r a c t o r s , land-owners) and a p r o d u c i n g r i c h p e a s a n t c l a s s ( t h e k u n h i s ) . The a d i v a s i s were b e a t e n i n t o submiss ion o r t r a n q u i l i z e d , and remained i l l i t e r a t e , i g n o r a n t , h a l f - s t a r v e d and o p p r e s s e d by t h e new dominant power.

37 Now. t h r e e decades l a t e r , Bhoomi Sena u s i n g a method and s t y l e of m o b i l i z a t i o n . c o n s c i e n t i z a t i o n and o r g a n i z a t i o n ( d e s c r i b e d i n t h e p r e v i o u s p a r a s ) , which is i n marked c o n t r a s t t o t h e

method of spasmodic a r o u s a l and m o b i l i z a t i o n th rough t y p i c a l a g i t a t i o n by e x t e r n a l a g e n t s which l e d t o t h e 1945-1947 e r u p t i o n , h a s once a g a i n r e k i n d l e d t h e f l ame o f a d i v a s i cons- c i o u s n e s s and k e p t i t b u r n i n g b r i g h t l y f o r a decade . A d i v a s i power i s now becoming a r e a l i t y i n t h e j u n g l e p a t t i a r e a .

T h i s emerging power o f t h e a d i v a s i s i s a c o u n t e r v a i l i n g power and n o t t h e dominant power.

The r e l a t i o n s h i p h e r e s e e m s c o n t r a d i c t o r y b u t n o t an an tago- n i s t i c one . Such c o u n t e r v a i l i n g power can grow t o g e t h e r w i t h t h e growth of t h e dominant power. I t may s e e k t o r e d u c e e x p l o i t a t i o n , b u t w i t h i n t h e e x i s t i n g p r o d u c t i o n r e l a t i o n s , t o check and c o n t r o l t h e a b u s e of dominant power, and a t mos t , t o t a k e o v e r and manage more e f f i c i e n t l y , and pe rhaps even more e q u i t a b l y , some of t h e i n s t i t u t i o n s of t h e dominant power.

I t c o u l d deve lop a s an a n t a g o n i s t i c o n e , and t h e growth of s u c h a c o u n t e r v a i l i n g power n e c e s s a r i l y i m p l i e s a d e c l i n e of t h e dominant power. I t c o n s c i o u s l y s t r i v e s t o t r a n s f o r m i t s e l f i n t o t h e dominant power.

Is t h e emerging a d i v a s i power i n t h e j u n g l e p a t t i a r e a a n a n t a g o n i s t i c o r a n o n - a n t a g o n i s t i c c o u n t e r v a i l i n g power? T h i s would depend on t h e n a t u r e o f i t s r e l a t i o n s h i p t o t h e dominant power . The l a t t e r however , i s n o t a homogeneous one, s i n c e t h e r e a r e two e x p l o i t e r c l a s s e s w i t h s i g n i f i c a n t c o n t r a d i c t i o n s between them. One o f them i s t h e new sawkar c l a s s which is p r i m a r i l y a money l e n d i n g , t r a d i n g and c o n t r a c t i n g c l a s s , and o n l y s e c o n d a r i l y and i n d i f f e r e n t l y engaged i n p r o d u c t i o n . So f a r . t h e sawkar s , who c o n s t i t u t e a m e r c a n t i l e c a p i t a l i s t c l a s s , h a v e m a i n t a i n e d t h e i r dominance a t t h e t a l u q and d i s t r i c t l e v e l . Loca l b u r e a u c r a c i e s and t h e p o l i c e a r e i n l e a g u e w i t h them, and f o r t h e a d i v a s i s t h e y c o n s t i t u t e t h e government a s t h e a c t u a l s t a t e i s t o o remote and unapproachab le .

On t h e o t h e r hand, a t t h e v i l l a g e l e v e l i n t h e P a l g h a r j u n g l e - p a t t i a r e a , i t is kunb i power t h a t i s more i n e v i d e n c e . The k u n b i s a r e a c l a s s of r i c h (and midd le ) p e a s a n t s p r i m a r i l y engaged i n a g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c t i o n . They a r e a n emerging a g r i c u l t u r a l b o u r g e o i s i e s l o w l y t a k i n g t o modern c a p i t a l i s t a g r i c u l t u r e . However, due t o t h e c o n s t r a i n t s t o t h e deve lop - ment of c a p i t a l i s m , t h e y a r e a l s o b e i n g d i v e r t e d i n t o non- p r o d u c i n g a c t i v i t i e s such a s moneylending. With g r e a t e r s t a t e a s s i s t a n c e , however, t h e y may a t t e m p t a more comple t e t r a n - s i t i o n t o c a ~ i t a l i s m . and become t h e dominant Dower n o t o n l v a t t h e v i l l a g e l e v e l b u t a l s o a t h i g h e r a d m i n i s t r a t i v e l e v e l s .

43. Thus t h e n a t u r e o f a d i v a s i c o u n t e r v a i l i n g power h a s t o be examined b o t h i n r e l a t i o n t o sawkar power a s we l l a s . t o kunb i power. I n r e l a t i o n t o sawkar power, i t is q u i t e e v i d e n t t h a t a d i v a s i power i s an a n t a g o n i s t i c c o u n t e r v a i l i n g power. The a d i v a s i s a r e c o n s c i o u s l y and u n e q u i v o c a l l y s t r i v i n g t o d e s t r o y sawkar power. and t h e growth of t h e i r own power o v e r t h e l a s t s even y e a r s h a s undoub ted ly l e d t o a c o r r e s p o n d i n g r e d u c t i o n i n sawkar power.

4 4 . I n r e l a t i o n t o k u n b i power , however, t h e a d i v a s i c o n s c i o u s n e s s a p p e a r s t o be somewhat a m b i v a l e n t . The a d i v a s i s o f t e n lump t h e kunb i s and t h e sawkar s i n t h e same c l a s s c a t e g o r y , and t e n d t o i d e n t i f y t h e d e s t r u c t i o n of sawkar power w i t h t h e e l i m i n a t i o n o f k u n b i power t o o . The re i s some o b j e c t i v e b a s i s f o r t h i s i d e n t i f i c a t i o n i n s o f a r a s t h e r i c h e r kunb i s a r e a l s o money- l e n d e r s l i k e t h e sawkar s , i m i t a t e t h e l i f e s t y l e of t h e sawkar s . and i n t h e i r s t r u g g l e f o r k h a u t i (consumption l o a n s ) t h e a d i v a s i s do n o t d i f f e r e n t i a t e between t h e sawkar s and t h e rponeylending k u n b i s .

45. The m a t e r i a l b a s i s o f kunbi power, however, i s d i f f e r e n t from t h a t of sawkar power; i t i s t h e emerging c a p i t a l i s t r e l a t i o n o f p r o d u c t i o n i n a g r i c u l t u r e . A l l t h e a c t i v i t i e s h i t h e r t o u n d e r t a k e n by Bhoomi Sena - t h e p r e s e n t s t r u g g l e f o r l a n d , k h a u t i , minimum wages, employment, a b o l i t i o n of bonded l a b o u r , e t c . - a r e n o t i n any way i n c o v p a t i b l e w i t h . hu t r a t h e r w i t h i n t h e framework o f , c a p i t a l i s t r e l a t i o n s of p r o d u c t i o n . I n f a c t some of t h e s e a c t i v i t i e s mav even h e l p t o speed up t h e movement t owards c a p i t a l i s m i n t h e a r e a , by c o m p e l l i n g t h e more e n t e r - p r i s i n g kunb i s t o modern i se a g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c t i o n s o a s t o be a b l e t o pay t h e h i g h e r wages demanded. Whether t h e o b j e c t i v e c o n d i t i o n s , both i n t e r n a l and e x t e r n a l , a r e conduc ive t o t h e development of a g r i c u l t u r a l c a p i t a l i s m i n t h e a r e a i s a n o t h e r m a t t e r ( d i s c u s s e d s u b s e q u e n t l y ) . I f t h e y a r e , t h e p r e s e n t a c t i v i t i e s of Bhoorni Sena c o u l d w e l l promote r a t h e r t h a n h i n d e r t h a t p r o c e s s .

46 . I n t h i s p e r s p e c t i v e , w h i l e a d i v a s i power is unambiguously a n a n t a g o n i s t i c c o u n t e r v a i l i n g power i n r e l a t i o n t o t h e d e c l i n i n g sawkar power. i t h a s a t p r e s e n t t h e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c o f a non- a n t a g o n i s t i c c o u n t e r v a i l i n g power i n r e l a t i o n t o t h e growing kunb i power.

4 7 . Under what c o n d i t i o n s cou ld a d i v a s i c o u n t e r v a i l i n g power become a n t a g o n i s t i c i n r e l a t i o n t o kunbi power, and e v e n t u a l l y t r a n s - form i t s e l f i n t o t h e dominant power of t h e a r e a ? T h i s q u e s t i o n r a i s e s many i s s u e s which t a k e u s o u t s i d e t h e Bhoomi Sena r a n g e o f e x p e r i e n c e . I t r e q u i r e s an u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f Bhoomi Sena w i t h i n a p e r s p e c t i v e of S o c i a l Change.

I V . Whi the r Bhoomi Sena?

4% The q u e s t i o n o f d e v e l o p i n g t h e r u r a l p r o d u c t i v e f o r c e s and d e e p e n i n g t h e i n t e r n a l market f o r c a p i t a l i s m has become a c e n t r a l one f o r t h e I n d i a n b o u r g e o i s i e t o o . Un l ike t h e Sou th Koreans , t hey have n o t y e t been a b l e t o e s t a b l i s h and s u s t a i n an expand ing c y c l e o f accumula t ion and r e a l i z a t i o n o f s u r p l u s v a l u e . I n t h i s s e n s e I n d i a i s s t i l l n o t a c a p i t a l i s t c o u n t r y , h u t one moving towards i t w i t h a g r e a t e r s e n s e of d i r e c t i o n and speed t h a n most o t h e r T h i r d World c o u n t r i e s t oday . However, i t s t i l l r ema ins a c o u n t r y wi th o a s e s of c a p i t a l i s m i n a p re - c a p i t a l i s t d e s e r t . The p i l i n g up o f enormous f o r e i g n exchange r e s e r v e s , t h e huge g r a i n s u r p l u s e s , and t h e s i g n i f i c a n t under- u t i l i z a t i o n of e x i s t i n g i n d u s t r i a l p r o d u c t i v e c a p a c i t y and t e c h n o l o g i c a l and s c i e n t i f i c manpower a r e a l l m a n i f e s t a t i o n s of t h e r e l a t i v e l y narrow i n t e r n a l m a r k e t . I n view of t h e s i z e of t h e c o u n t r y , t h e c u r r e n t i n t e r n a t i o n a l economic s i t u a t i o n , t h e v a s t f o r e i g n exchange r e s e r v e s and t h e l i m i t e d c a p a c i t y t o a h s o r b i m p o r t s , i t i s d o u b t f u l whe the r t h e d r i v e f o r f o r e i g n m a r k e t s a l o n e cou ld s u b s t a n t i a l l y e a s e t h e r e a l i z a t i o n problem o f t h e I n d i a n b o u r g e o i s i e . Hence, t h e development of t h e r u r a l p r o d u c t i v e f o r c e s , and w i t h i t t h e i n t e r n a l m a r k e t , a p p e a r s t o be t h e e s s e n t i a l p r e c o n d i t i o n f o r f r e e i n g I n d i a from t h e t r a p of p r e - c a p i t a l i s t s t a g n a t i o n .

4 9 . What i s t h e c l a s s :hat can pe r fo rm t h i s t a s k ? I n t h i s r e g a r d t h e I n d i a n b o u r g e o i s i e have some o p t i o n s open t o them.

50. The f i r s t i s t o r e l y on t h e p e t t y b o u r g e o i s i e . However, t h e weak and p a t e r n a l i s t i c e f f o r t s o f u r b a n p e t t y b o u r g e o i s e l i t e s t o l i v e and ' i n t e g r a t e ' w i t h t h e r u r a l poor , and l i f t them up th rough e d u c a t i o n , o r g a n i z a t i o n and t h e p r o v i s i o n of t e c h n i c a l e x p e r t i s e h a s proved i n e f f e c t u a l . On t h e o t h e r hand , Sou th Korea h a s demons t r a t ed t h a t t h e r u r a l p e t t y b o u r g e o i s i e , which i s a p r o d u c i n g c l a s s of m i d d l e p e a s a n t s . can b e o r g a n i z e d and m o t i v a t e d th rough a s u i t a b l e r h e t o r i c t o pe r fo rm t h i s t a s k , a t l e a s t i n t h e i n i t i a l s t a g e s . But an I n d i a n 'Saemaul Undong* i s a l i t t l e d i f f i c u l t ti) v i s u a l i z e . i f o n l y because of t h e a b s e n c e o f e g a l i t a r i a n i s m i n t h e I n d i a n c o u n t r y s i d e due t o t h e wide d i s p a r i t y i n l a n d owner sh ip

a n d t h e s h a r p c l a s s a n d c a s t e d i f f e r e n t i a t i o n w h i c h e x i s t s t h e r e , a n d s i n c e u n d e r s u c h c o n d i t i o n s of i n c r e a s i n g p o l a r i - s a t i o n t h e r u r a l p e t t y h o i ~ r g e o i s i e i is a d i s i n t e g r a t i n g c l a s s .

51. A s e c o n d o p t i o n i s t c r e l y on t h e e m e r g i n g r u r a l b o u r g e o i s i e t o d e v e l o p a n a g r a r i a n c a p i t a l i s m . T h i s r a i s e s p r o b l e m s somewhat s i m i l a r t o t h o s e r o n f r n n t i n g t h e S o u t h Korean b o u r g e o i s i e . T h e r u r a l b o u r g e o i s i e i s s t i l l a r e l a t i v e l y weak c l a s s , a n d i t is v e r y d o u b t f u l w h e t h e r t h e y on t h e i r own c a n p e r f o r m t h e m a s s i v e t a s k o f t h e c a p i t a l i s t t r a n s f o r m a t i o n o f r u r a l I n d i a , Even i f t h e y w e r e t o d o s o , i t would n e e d a t r e m e n d o u s t r a n s f e r o f r e s o u r c e s f r o m t h e u r h a n t o t h e r u r a l a r e a s , m e r e l y t o b u i l d t h e p h y s i c a l a n d s o c i a l i n f r a s t r u c t u r e n e c e s s a r y f o r c a p i t a l i s t g r o w t h . W i l l t h e u r b a n b o u r g e o i s i e b e w i l l i n g t o p e r m i t s u c h a s u b s t a n t i a l f l o w (if s u r p l u s t o t h e r u r a l a r e a s , c o n t i n u i n g o v e r a number o f y e a r s ? What is t h e c a p a c i t y of t h e u r h a n I n d u s t r i a l s e c t o r t o a b s o r b t h e m i l l i i > n s o f r u r a l p o o r who would b e u p r o o t e d i n t h e p r o c e s s o f t h e d e v e l o p m e n t of a g r a r i a n c a p i t a l i s m ? What a b o u t t h e s o r i a l a n d p o l i t i c a l c o n s e q u e n c e (if i n c r e a s i n g t h ~ p o l a r i s a t i o n a n d i n t e n s i f y i n g t h e c l a s s c - o n t r a d i c t i n n s i n t h e r u r a l a r e a s ? T h e r e is a f u r t h e r q u e s t i o n o f w h e t h e r t h e b o u r g e o i s i e c o u l d t r a n s c e n d t h e h a r r i e r o f a d i f f u s e d ' C o u n t e r v a i l i n g C o n s c i o u s n e s s ' a r i s i n g o u t o f p o p u l i s t r h e t o r i c , w h i c h I n d i a s h a r e s w i t h many o t h e r S t r - a t e r a p i t a l l s t C o u n t r i e s , a n d w h i c h m i l i t a t e s a g a i n s t o p e n l y a d o p t i n g a p a t h of i n c r e a s e d p o l a r i s a t i o n . T h e s e a r e q u e s t i o n s t h a t t h e I n d i a n b o u r g e o i s i e may we11 p o n d e r b e f o r e t h e y d e c i d p t o t a k e t h e s e c o n d o p t i o n .

5 9 A t h i r d o p t i o n is t o d e p e n d I T a t a c i t a l l i a n c e b e t w e e n t h e t w o e m e r g i n g r u r a l c l a s q e q c a p a h l e o f d e v e l o p i n g t h e p r o d u c t i v e f o r c e s . t h e h o u r g e o i s i e and t h e p r o l e t a r i a t . t o p r n v i d e t h e m a t e r i a l p r e c c n d i t i o n s f o r t h e d ~ v e l n p m p n t o f r u r a l c a p i t a l i s m . T h i s may a p p e a r p a r a d n x i c a l . h u t t h e e x p e r i e n c e o f K e r a l a a n d r e c e n t t r e n d s i n West Bpngal i n d i c a t e t h a t i t i s a r e a l o p t i o n a v a i l a b l e t o t h e T n d i a n h o i i r g e o i s i e . An e f f i c i e n t , ' C o m m u n i s t ' management o f C a p i t a l i s m , u t i l i s i n g t h e f u l l power o f s o c i a l i s t i n v o c a t i o n t o m o b i l i z e t h e p r o l e t a r i a t a n d p e a s a n t r y t o d e v e l o p t h e p r o d u c t i v e f o r c e s u n d e r c a p i t a l i s t . - - -- .. - r e l a t i o n s o f p r o d u c t i o n , w i t h a minimnm o f c o s t t o t h e b o u r g e o i s i e , i s a n i n t e r e s t i n g s e r i a l e x p e r i m e n t w i t h g r e a t s i g n i f i c a n t f o r t h e u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f S o c i a l C h a n g e .

53. T h r r e mav. p n s s i h l v . h e a f o u r t h o p t i o n . A c l a s s c o n s c i o u s , r u r a l p r n l e t a r i a t mav b e g i n i n c e r t a i n a r e a s t o d e v e l n p t h e p r o d u c t i v e f o r c e s ~ i n d ~ a r c n l - - - l e r t i v i s t .. .. - - . . - - - - r e l a t i o n s o f p r o d u c t i o n . D e p t ~ n d l n ~ o n t h e q t r e n g t h o f t h e c o i i n t e r v a i l i n g power o f s u c h a n i - r g a n i z e d m r a l p r o l e t a r i a t , a n d on t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p o f c l a s s f < > r r e ' = ; w i t h i n a n d n u t - i d ? t h p a r p a , t h ? b o u r g e o i s i e may n o t o n l y b e u n a b l e t o c o n t a i n s u c h a movement , h u t may e v e n

come t o a c c e p t i t a s t h e o n l y r e a l i s t i c way of d e v e l o p i n g t h e p r o d u c t i v e f o r c e s and t h e i n t e r n a l market f o r them i n such a r e a s . I n such an e v e n t u a l i t y t h e I n d i a n b o u r g e o i s i e would be making a h i s t o r i c c h o i c e between t h e development of a r u r a l c a p i t a l i s m , which would b l eed i t economica l ly bu t s t r e n g t h e n i t p o l i t i c a l l y , and t h e development of a r u r a l c o l l e c t i v i s m , which would be p a i n l e s s e c o n o m i c a l l y , h u t a g o n i s i n g p o l i t i c a l l y .

54. I t i s w i t h i n t h i s p e r s p e c t i v e of S o c i a l Change t h a t we a t t e m p t t:o o b t a i n a g l i m p s e o f t h e f u t u r e p o s s i b i l i t i e s of Bhoomi Sena. The j u n g l e p a t t i a r e a and i t s s u r r o u n d i n g s is a p r e - c a p i t a l i s t one d o m i n a t ~ d by a m e r c a n t i l e b o u r g e o i s c l a s s ( s a w k a r s ) , which t o a l l i n t e n t s and p u r p o s e s c o n s t i t u t e s t h e 'power ' t h e r e . T h e i r p r i n c i p a l mode of e x p l o i t a t i o n i s th rough i n t e r e s t and commercia l p r o f i t , and o n l y s e c o n d a r i l y t h rough t h e s u r p l u s e x t r a c t e d from wage- labour . While a midd le p e a s a n t c l a s s engaged i n p e t t y commodity p r o d u c t i o n i s widesp read th roughou t t h e a r e a , i t s d i s i n t e g r a t i o n h a s a l r e a d y commenced, and t h e t endency towards a g r a r i a n c a p i t a l i s m i s a l r e a d y m a n i f e s t . The two c l a s s e s which have emerged a s a r e s u l t o f t h i s t endency a r e t h e r i c h p e a s a n t c l a s s ( k u n b i s ) , whose p r i n c i p a l mode o f e x p l o i t a t i o n is th rough t h e s u r p l u s e x t r a c t e d from wage- labour and o n l y s e c o n d a r i l y t h rough i n t e r e s t , and t h e p r o l e t a r i a t c o n s i s t i n g o f t h e l a n d l e s s and land-poor p e a s a n t l a b o u r e r s .

55. The f u t u r e o f t h i s a r e a w i l l depend n o t on ly on t h e i n t e r n a l c l a s s r e l a t i o n s h i p s and s t r u g g l e s , b u t a l s o on t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p of t h i s p e r i p h e r a l a r e a t o t h e c a p i t a l i s t c e n t e r . As men t ioned e a r l i e r a deepen ing o f t h e i n t e r n a l marke t t h rough t h e development o f t h e r u r a l p r o d u c t i v e f o r c e s h a s n o t become a m a t t e r of pr ime c o n c e r n t o t h e I n d i a n b o u r g e o i s i e . I t i s t h i s conce rn t h a t w i l l l a r g e l y i n f l u e n c e t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p between t h e c n e t e r and t h e p e r i p h e r y .

56. The c e n t r a l q u e s t i o n , t h e r e f o r e , is what is t h e c l a s s t h a t can d e v e l o p t h e p r o d u c t i v e f o r c e s i n t h e j u n g l e p a t t i a r e a , and unde r what c o n d i t i o n s c o u l d i t do s o ? The sawkar c l a s s i s t o t a l l y i n c a p a b l e of do ing t h i s ; on t h e c o n t r a r y , t h e deve lop - ment o r p r o d u c t i v e f o r c e s r e q u i r e s t h e e l i m i n a t i o n o f t h e p o l i t i c a l , economic and c u l t u r a l dominance o f t h i s p re - c a p i t a l i s t e x p l o i t i n g c l a s s of non-producers . I n t h i s a r e a t h e r e a r e o n l y two c l a s s e s c a p a b l e o f p l a y i n g t h i s r o l e , t h e r i c h p e a s a n t c l a s s c o n s i s t i n g ma in ly o f k u n b i s and t h e p r o l e t a r i a t c o n s i s t i n g ma in ly of a d i v a s i s . The k u n b i s , a t p r e s e n t , a r e a weak and v a c i l l a t i n g c l a s s w i t h one f o o t i n c a p i t a l i s m and t h e o t h e r i n p r e - c a p i t a l i s m . The u t i l i z a t i o n of t h e i r s u r p l u s i s d i v i d e d between c a p i t a l i s t accumula t ion , consp icuous consumption and p r e - c a p i t a l i s t forms of i n v e s t m e n t . They a r e o n l y v e r y s l o w l y and p a i n f u l l y m o d e r n i s i n g and

i n t e n s i f y i n g a g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c t i o n . Al though t h e y a r e a c l a s s f o r o t h e r s , t h e y a r e s t i l l n o t f u l l y c o n s c i o u s of b e i n g a c l a s s f o r t h e m s e l v e s . They w i l l need a t remendous piish from o u t s i d e i f t hey a r e t o emerge a s a f u l l - f l e d g e d r u r a l c a p i t a l i s t c l a s s . The I n d i a n b o u r g e o i s i e w i l l have t o d i v e r t c o n s i d e r a b l e r e s o u r c e s t o t h i s a r e a t o make c a p i t a l i s t s o u t of t h e k u n b i s . The b u i l d i n g of t h e p h y s i c a l and s o c i a l i n f r a - s t r u c t u r e n e c e s s a r y f o r c a p i t a l i s m i n t h i s ' p r i m i t i v e ' , t r i b a l a r e a w i l l t a x t h e b o u r g e o i s i e h e a v i l y . I t i s n o t a p a t h t h a t t h e y w i l l l i g h t l y t a k e .

57 . The o t h e r p r o d u c e r c l a s s c a p a b l e of d e v e l o p i n g t h e p r o d u c t i v e f o r c e s i n t h i s a r e a i s t h e p r o l e t a r i a t . T h i s c l a s s i s o r g a n i z i n g i t s e l f t h rough t h e Bhoomi Sena movement, and emerg ing a s a c o u n t e r v a i l i n g power i n t h e j u n g l e p a t t i a r e a . I t is t a k i n g t h e l e a d i n t h e s t r u g g l e t o d e s t r o y p r e - c a p i t a l i s m and h a s a c h i e v e d a s i g n i f i c a n t measure of s u c c e s s . By t h i s s u c c e s s , i t is c r e a t i n g t h e p o l i t i c a l and economic s p a c e n e c e s s a r y f o r t h e development of t h e p r o d u c t i v e f o r c e s unde r new and h i g h e r r e l a t i o n s of p r o d u c t i o n . But t h i s s p a c e today i s l a r g e l y an u n f i l l e d vacuum, even though t h e k u n b i s have c r e p t i n t o a l i t t l e b i t of i t and sown t h e s e e d s of c a p i t a l i s t r e l a t i o n s of p r o d u c t i o n . Bhoomi Sena , s o f a r , h a s done v e r y l i t t l e w i th r e g a r d t o t h e u t i l i z a t i o n of t h i s s p a c e f o r t h e development o f p r o d u c t i v e f o r c e s , and wha teve r l i t t l e p ro - d u c t i v e a c t i v i t i e s have been i n i t i a t e d by t h e Ta run Mandals a r e ma in ly w i t h i n t h e framework of c a p i t a l i s t p r o d u c t i o n r e l a t i o n s . At p r e s e n t , though t h e Bhoomi Sena method and s t y l e of work i s fundamen ta l ly d i f f e r e n t t o t h a t o f t h e l e f t p a r t i e s and t h e i r t r a d e un ion movements, i n t e r m s of t h e c o n t e n t o f i t s a c t i v i t i e s Bhoomi Sena s t i l l r ema ins e s s e n t i a l l y w i t h i n t h e t r a d i t i o n a l mould. But i t s un ique method and s t y l e of work cou ld p r o v i d e i t w i t h an o p p o r t u n i t y t o b r e a k o u t o f t h i s mould and c h a r t a n e q u a l l y un ique p a t h f o r i t s e l f . T h i s p a t h is n o t mere ly one of m o b i l i z i n g and r a i s i n g t h e cons- c i o u s n e s s of p e o p l e t h rough p o l i t i c a l and economic s t r u g g l e . I t i s one of f u l l y u t i l i z i n g t h e s p a c e c r e a t e d th rough t h e s e s t r u g g l e s t o d e v e l o p t h e p r o d u c t i v e f o r c e s , n o t u n d e r c . a p i t a l i s t , h u t unde r new c o l l e c t i v i s t r e l a t i o n s of p r o d u c t i o n , t h e r e b y sowing t h e s e e d s of a npw s o c i a l o r d e r , and emerging a s a c o u n t e r v a i l i n g power a n t a g o n i s t i c t o kunb i power, w i t h t h e f u l l c o n s c i o u s n e s s of becoming t h e dominant power i n t h e a r e a .

5 8 The o b j e c t i v e c o n d i t i o n s f o r such a t r a n s i t i o n from p re - c a p i t a l i s m do n o t a p p e a r t o he u n f a v o u r a b l e . F i r s t l y , a l t h o u g h Khonmi Sena h a s n o t y e t t a k e n t h i s p a t h . t h e s h a r p e n i n g of t h e c o n t r a d i c t i o n s a r i s i n g o u t of t h e s l i ^ w growth of c a p i t a l i s m and t h e r a p i d development of Bhoomi Sena

power a n d c l a s s c o n s c i o u s n e s s among t h e a d i v a s i s . mav make t h i s p a t h a p p e a r a s t h e m o s t o b v i o u s a n d n a t u r a l o n e t o t a k e . I f t h a t w e r e t o h a p p e n , t h e i n f r a s t r u c t u r e t h a t h a s a l r e a d y b e e n l a i d i n t e r m s o f m o b i l i z d t i o n and o r g a n i z a t i o n c o u l d f a t i l i t a t e and s p e e d up t h e movement t o w a r d s c o l l e c t i v i s t r e l a t i o n s o f p r o d u c t i o n .

S e c o n d l y , ' S t a t e C d p i t a l i s r n ' i n I n d i a , t h r o u g h p a r t i a l l a n d r e f o r m , S t a t e m a r k e t i n g n e t w o r k s , p r o r e s s i n g f a c i l i t i e s , n a t i o n a l i s e d f i n a n c i a l i n s t i t u t i o n s . e t c . h a s p r o v i d e d some e c o n o m i c s p a c e f o r t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f r u r a l p r o d u c t i v e f o r c e s . T h a t t h i s s p a c e s t i l l r e m a i n s l a r g e l y u n u t i l i s e d i n t h e a r e a i s a f u r t h e r commentary o n t h e w e a k n e s s o f t h e k u n h i c l a s s , w h i c h h a s been. u n a b l e t o f i l l i t by d e v e l o p i n g t h e p r o d u c t i v e f o r c e s u n d e r c a p i t a l i s t r e l a t i o n s of p r o d u c t i o n . However, a t p r e s e n t , t h i s s p a c e i s n e u t r a l w i t h r e s p e c t t o t h e s p e c i f i c c h a r a c t e r o f t h e r e l a t i o n s of p r o d u c t i o n , a n d t h e r e s e e m s t o b e n o b a r r i e r a t a l l t o Bhnomi S e n a u t i l i s i n g t h i s s p a c e t o d e v e l o p p r o - d u c t i v e f o r c e s u n d e r c o l l e c t i v i s t r e l a t i o n s of p r o d u c t - i n n . An i l l u s t r a t i o n of t h i s i s t h e s t a t e m i l k c o l l e c t i n g c e n t e r i n t h e a r e a , w h i c h t o d a y i s i n o p e r a t i v e b e c a u s e t h e r e is n o m i l k t o c o l l e c t . On t h e o t h e r h a n d . t h e a d i v a s i l a b o u r e r s a r e c u t t i n g g r a s s f o r c o n t r a c t o r s who s e l l i t t o d a i r i e s o u t s i d e t h e a r e a . I t would b e v e r y d i f f i c u l t t o e l i m i n a t e t h e c o n t r a c t o r b e c a u s e t h e p r i v a t e g r a s s m a r k e t i n g c h a i n i s a v e r y t i g h t o n e . However , t h e a d i v a s i s c o u l d b y - p a s s t h i s e n t i r e p r i v a t e m a r k e t i n g n e t w o r k , a n d e n g a g e i n c o l l e r t i v e m i l k p r o d u c t i o n w h i c h c o u l d b e f e d i n t o t h e Bombay m a r k e t t h r o u g h t h e S t a r e m i l k c o l l e c t i n g c e n t e r .

A s i n t h e r a s e u f t h e I n d i a n b o u r g e o i s i e , t h e o p t i o n s b e f o r e Bhoomi S e n a a r e more t h a n o n e . What a c t u a l l y w i l 1 h a p p e n r e m a i n s u n p r e d i c t a b l e , n o t o n l y b e c a u s e t h e p r e f e r r e d o p t i o n o f t h e b o u r g e o i s i e i s unknown b u t a l s o b e c a u s e t h e method o f Bhoomi S e n a , i f t h e p a s t is a n y g u i d e , i s t o a d v a n c e t h r o u g h l e a r n i n g d e r i v e d f r o m s p o n t a n e o u s g r o u n d l e v e l i n i t i a t i v e s r a t h e r t h a n on t h e b a s i s of a c e n t r a l l y c o n c e i v e d g r a n d d e s i g n .

F o r i n d e p t h s t u d i e s o n Bhoomi Sena Movement p l e a s e w r i t e t o G.V.S. de S i l v a e t a1 ,c/o Dag Hammarsk jo ld F o u n d a t i o n .

Pour d ' a u t r e s e tudes s u r l e mouvement Bhoomi Sena s ' a d r e s s e r a G.V.S.de S i l v a e t a1, c / o F o n d a t i o n Dag Hammarsk jo ld

O t ros i n f o r m e s s o b r e e l mov im ien to Bhoomi Sena pueden p e d i r s e a G.V.S.de S i l v a e t a1, c / o Fundac ion Dag Hammarsk jo ld

B U I L D I N G BLOCKS

STRATEGIES OF IMPLEMENTAT ION OF RURAL DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMMES I N I N D I A

by T.K.Moulik I n d i a n I n s t i t u t e o f Management Vas t rapur Ahmedabad 380 015, I n d i a

O r i g i n a l language: E n g l i s h

A b s t r a c t : The many imper fec t ions , d i s t o r t i o n s and d i l u t i o n s i n t h e implement- -- a t i o n o f r u r a l development programmes i n I n d i a s u b s t a n t i a t e t h e argument t h a t i n o r d e r t o implement such programmes, p o l i c y makers need t o understand t h r e e b a s i c issues. The p r e v a i l i n g o b j e c t i v e c o n d i t i o n s i n t h e r u r a l area. The goals and o b j e c t i v e s o f r u r a l development programmes. And, i n the 1 i y b t o f p a s t exper iences, how, when, what k i n d and by whom shou ld r u r a l development programmes be implemented i n d i f f e r e n t s i t u a t i o n s t o achieve t h e goals and o b j e c t i v e s . The s t r a t e g i e s adopted a re c r u c i a l .

The f o l l o w i n g d i s c u s s i o n o f r u r a l development programmes i n I n d i a rev iews t ha t c o u n t r y ' s p a s t exper iences and recommends a l t e r n a t i v e s t r a t e g i e s , based upon s t r u c t u r a l implementat ion f o r a c t i o n a t t h e m i c r o l e v e l .

STRATEGIES DE M I S E EN OEUVRE LIES PROGRAMMES DE DEVELOPPEMENT RURAL EN INDE

Resume -- Les nombreux de fau ts , d i s t o r t i o n s e t d i l u t i o n s o b s e r v a b l e ~ dans l a mise en oeuvre des programmes de developpement r u r a l en Inde conduisent a l a c o n c l u s i o n que ceux q u i p rennen t 1es dec is ions d o i v e n t mieux comprendre t r o i s probl@mes e s s e n t i e l s : l e s c o n d i t i o n s o b j e c t i v e s dans 1es reg ions r u r a l e s ; l e s o b j e c t i f s des programmes de developpement r u r a l ; e t , a l a lumie re de l ' e x p e r i e n c e , comment, quand, e t q u e l l e s o r t e de programmes d o i v e n t e t r e mis en oeuvre, dans des s i t u a t i o n s d i v e r s e s , pour a t t e i n d r e l e s o b j e c t i f s f i x e s . Les s t r a t e g i e s a i n s i adoptees son t un element d e c i s i f .

L ' a r t i c l e q u i s u i t examine l 1 e x p 6 r i e n c e de 1 ' I n d e e t recommande des s t r a t e g i e s a l t e r n a t i v e s s u r l a base d 'une s t r u c t u r e de mise en oeuvre au n iveau l o c a l .

Traduccion en Espaiiol en l a p i g i n a 16

2

T.K. l l o u l i k STRATB3IhS OF IMPLEhiEi7I'Al'IGII OF RURAL DhVKLOBEMT PROGRAMIES IP I N D I A

The impact of a rural development pmgramne (EDP) depends ent i rely on how well it i s implemented. The s trategies of implementation are not only crucial , but complex, encompassing a number of functionaries, organisations and beneficiaries i n a variety of situations.

I Three Basic Issues for Policy !fakers

I n order t o implement R3P, the policy makers need. t o understand, three basic issues:

a ) The prevailing objective conditions i n the rural area.

b) The goals and objectives of RDP.

c ) In the l i g h t of past experiences, how, when, what kind and by whom should BDP be implemented i n different s i tuat ions t o achieve the goals and objectives.

The issues mentioned above may seem too simplistic t o merit mention here. T k t is why, perhaps, these issues are very often overlooked o r not seriously considered by the policy makers. The many imper- fections, distortions and di lut ions i n the implementation of KDP i n India amply substantiate the argument. Hovrever, t h i s does not mean tha t the policy makers i n India are unaware of the reasons for the poor implementation - i f they were continuously aware of the importance of these simple issues, thv implementation strategy planning would not be so biased.

RDP may have several connotations but i t is essent ial ly dependent on the objective socio-economic conditions of the rui-sl ares . The objective conditions prevailing i n rural India are characterized by extreme poverty brought on by the imbalance of the socio-economic structure. In rural areas today, for example 50 per cent of the people a t the very bottom OVTI only two per cent of the land, th i r ty per cent a t the top eighty two per cent and the middle thir ty per cent in between own sixteen per cent. f'Aout f i f t y per cer t of the rural population i n India is belov, the o f f ic ia l ly recwnised l i n e of Absolut~ Poverty (i.e. earning an incom of FS 25-50 per month!. I - l l f

problem of poverty i s compounded manifold by the t radi t ional caste- system; generally the low-caste grows or the untouchables do not own the most impoitant itnci perhaps the only avi i lable means of production - land.

The control over the v i t a l means of production by a few land-rich people has led t o an extremely unequal distr ibut ion of income, wealth and power i n rural India. The social, economic and pol i t i ca l power of the land-rich has given r i s e t o strong vested interests direct ly o r indirect ly exploiting the land poor o r the landless building extreme forms of domir*ance/dependence relationships. This exploita- t ion not only keeps millions of rural people poor and starving, but a l so prevents benefits of development progmmes from reaching the rural poor.

Recognising the conditions an^ structural implications of rural poverty is not new. Over a period, there has emerged a consensus on the goals of HDP. Broadly, FOP aims a t removing rural poverty and enriching the quality o f l i f e for all sections of the rural population, with primary focus on the rural poor. The Vorlel Bank defines it as:

. a strategy designed t o improve the economic and social conditions of l i f e of a specif ic group of people - the rural poor. It involves extencling the benefits of development t o the poorest among those who seek a livelihood i n the rural areas 1

8 Operationally, the goals of RDP i n India can be defined, as a process of asset creation and asset dis t r ibut ion through:

1 . Increasing productivity of not only agricul tural and related enterprises, but a lso through secondary and t e r t i a l y economic ac t iv i t i es .

2. Faci l i ta t ing access, control and dis tr ibut ion of produc t ive resources (e .R. land, capi tal , technological know-how and socio-economic power) i n a more equitable manner with part icular reference t o the upliftment of the rural poor above the poverty level .

5 . Generating opportunity for gainful employment for the rural poor, par t icular ly the landless labourers.

Ill Past Stratecies of EDP i n India

I n order t o real ise the goals o i RDP, a mixture of s t rategies has been employed since Independence. One can find a l l the three development s t rategies ident i f ied by %r i f f in2 - ' technocratic', 'reformist ' and ' radical ' - v i t h varying emphases.

I n practice, however, two view points influenced policy makers i n lndie:

the one s w s t i n g s t r u c t u r a l changes ( radical ) , par t i cu la r ly land reforms, and the other r e c o m e n d i ~ appl ica t ion o f modem technolo- g i e s t o increase product iv i ty (technocratic). Depending w o n the p reva i l ing p o l i t i c a l climate and food s i tua t ion , there have been s h i f t s i n the emphasis of the s t r a t eg ie s . *en the ' radical ' s t r a t egy of s t n c t u r a l change has been d i lu t ed i n t o a ' reformis t ' one by merely i n s t i t u t i n g supportive measures i n the system t o e f f e c t equi table d i s t r ibu t ion , without d r a s t i c charc;e i n the s t ruc tu re .

Nevertheless, several approaches have been used i n India i n order t o opera t ional ise the s t r i t e g i e s of RDP. Starting from 'community development. cooperatives and aanchayats' i n the f i f t i e s , the opera- t i o n a l approach has s h i f t e d t o ' intensive . ~ r i c u l t m a l development programmes (IADP) and hj+th yie lding v a r i e t i e s prograone (HYV)' i n the s i x t i e s and f i n a l l y i n the seventies t o the ' in tegra ted rural development' approach with a package of spec ia l programmes d i r e c t l y aimed a t the welfare of the deprived sect ions of the ruril comiunity - snail and marginal farmers, ag r i cu l tu ra l labourers , v i l l q e a r t i s a n s and t r i b a l s and rural poor i n drought-prone areas. Thus, over the three decades the attempts a t RDP i n India have progressed from the ' s ec to ra l approach' with emphasis on ag r i cu l tu ra l development, t o the 'a rea planning approach' and f ina l ly t o the ' t a rge t (youp-oriented approach'. But i n r e a l i t y , except on r a r e occassions, e c t o r a l con- s idera t ions . with emphasis on .agr icul tw? have dominate# 3DPs because o f the overwhelming pre-occupation of the pol icy maters with food problems and pol i t ico-adminis t ra t ive expediencies.

There have been attempts t o change the ba6i.c strite,i;iez and approaches over a period of time, bu t , i n t e re s t ing ly enowh, the s t r i t e g i e s of implementation o f RDP i n Ind ia remain u n c h q e ( i . Essent ia l ly , the actzial implementation of RDPs has been the responsibi l i ty of the covernment-run, bureaucrat ica l ly s t ructured, public administration v e n c i s s . The r i g i d h ierarchical str 'xt- , ire of the bureaucratic system making the required f l ex ib le approach according t o varying f i e l d s i tua t ions almost impossible, the emphases on accountabi l i ty , control and a. time-bound physical target-oriented appraisa l system, a l l render the o f f i c i a l funct ionar ies a t the implementition l e v e l i ne f fec t ive for people- or iented development prograinws. On the one hand, the long chain o f command i n the bureaucratic systera, and i t s r n u l t i ~ l i c i t y , hampers co-ordination and co-operation between the sector11 departaien'ts , on the o t h e r hand, t he concern over the increasing m.irf;inaJ coats of reaching the dispersed and unorganised rixa.1 poor m a e s i t convenient t o push a stcindardised 'blue-print' o f t,uar.tiiative tasks f o r a bro.icU.y categor ised t a r g e t group, r a the r than tre. i t ing s i tua t ions indfipend;:iit.ly. Added t o these inherent l imi t :~ t ions , there has beer. misfLied over- re l iance on t h e 'percolation theory' about the f l o w of benef i t s of

development protp-aiames from a few t o l a r g e r masses of t he rural population.

These and s imi l a r infl- jences have a l i ena t ed the government function- a r i e s from the masses, pa r t i cu l a r ly the rural poor. The ac t ion plans and. p ro j ec t s a r e cen t r a l l y planned said removed from the l o c a l s i tua- t i o n s , while i n the 'top-down' process o f development the f i e l d l e v e l funct ionar ies f ind it e a s i e r t o conta.ct the rura l - r ich i n order t o f u l f i l l the t a r g e t s assigned t o thea. As a r e s u l t , a co l lu s ive align- ment has developed, between the rural vested i n t e r e s t s and. t he implementing f>mctiona-ries, who, i n most cases, a l s o represent the s imi l a r c l a s s - in t e r e s t s , a t t i t u d e s , and concerns a s t h e rura l - r ich . To the r u r a l poor, therefore , t he bureaucra t ic implementing machineries have remained, a remote, i n sens i t i ve and in f l ex ib l e system which has been t o t a l l y blind, t o t he needs and o-spiiations of t he poor i n a pure ly ' (f iver-receiver ' re la t ionship . Even when there have been l imi t ed attempts t o involve the poor i n planning and. implcm-intation o f development programmes through the p a n c w a t i r a j system, the i n t e r e s t s of the poor have been t o t a l l y neglected by t he sane col lus ions between the vested i n t e r ~ s t s and. t he bureaucracy. Simi lar ly , the l e g i s l a t i v e and adminis t ra t ive Measures on land r e f o r m have t e e n swindled by the l m d - owning c l a s se s , with t he connivance of the government o f f i c i a l s .

Ph i s is not t o siy^est t h a t t he re has been no impact o f tOP e f f o r t s in Ind ia - i t fais contributed a p e a t dep.1 t o t he Iiat ional Srouth. India , f o r example. produced near ly 126 mill.ion tonnes o f foodgrains i n 1577-78 and i s l i k e l y t o harvest an equally l a rge crop i n the current year. Fur ther , t he 50 per r e n t r i s e i n f e r t i l i s e r c o n s ' q t i o n i n t h e l a s t two years , a f t e r f ive years of s tagnat ion ind ica t e s the second wind of Green devolution. But this increasing growth r a t e has not k l p e d t h e lami-poor and l and le s s categories. "'he ove ra l l impact o f t he EUP e f f o r t s has not a l t e r e d , but reinforced the p a t t e r n o f d i s t r i b u t i o n which s t e a d i l y po la r i ze s t h e r i c h and t h e poor. A l l those i n the rural areas who e i t h e r own nu land., o r do not produce enough t o meet t h e i r needs (e.f. small and marginal fanners) have been s t ead i ly impoverished, while t he ves ted i n t e r e s t s , fomprising of t he land-rich and the t r ade r s , p r o f i t e d from mP, stmxgblTtnirg t h e i r socio-pol i t ica l power base. Consequently, i n Sp i t e o f increas ing ltatior.a.1 Growth r a t e s . t h e wave of disenchantment and d i s t r e s s anioryz t he rural poor leading t o a crescendo of violence and unres t is observed.

P a r t l y i n response t o t he contin'iing fail--ires and negative t rends i n implcpientirg poverty-oriented development propammes, a number of i n t e r p s t i n g m d i n n o v ~ t i v e micro-?xp?riments on !ClP have sprung; Up over t h e rouritry outs ide the p-ov~rnnkint bure'i.ucratic systems. Included i n t h c s ~ e.qp~-.'-imen-ts are the e f f o r t s o f a l a r g e number o f vo17mtary agencies. Some o f these experiments nave made some 'success ' in the

r i g h t d i r e c t i o n and provide useful learning experiences. But, so f a r these experiments have been r e s t r i c t e d t o a l imi t ed geographical area. Ifany of them a re e i t h e r merely an extension of s t e r i l e ideologies, o r u t t e r l y dependent on the government o r foreign f inancia l a i d s and therefore subject t o control; o r they aim a t p a r t i a l in tervent ions v i thout confronting the complex s t ruc tu ra l problems, or tend t o p e p petuate t h e i r existence i n t h e i r micro-areas of operations considering themselves indispensible. All these and o the r const ra in ts of these micrc-experiments have thus f a r f a i l e d t o generate the minimum l e v e l o f 'push' t o f a c i l i t a t e the implementation of poor-oriented HDP.

I V Al ternat ive S t r a t eg ie s of Implementation of 3DP

It may be argued t h a t the pa t t e rns of object ive conditions ( b r i e f l y del ineated above) are too subt le fo r t he average ru ra l poor t o grasp. But this is f a r from t rue - it is not d i f f i c u l t t o understand t h a t t he f a i l u r e of the poverty-oriented HD? i n India i s due t o the fundamental c o n f l i c t in the s t ruc tu re of economic r e l a t i o n s i n the v i l l a g e society. What is absolute ly c l ea r , therefore , i s the urgency l o r a l t e rna te s t r a t e g i e s of RDP which c a l l f o r a r ad ica l *-designing of i n s t i t u t i o n s and processes i n many respects.

Fundamental Policy Parameters

The evolut ion of a l t e rna t ive s t r a t e g i e s of H3P must be based on fundamental pol icy parameters which have implications both a t macro and micro l e v e l s of the implementation s t ructure :

1. Whether through the processes of a s s e t creat ion o r a s se t d i s t r ibu t ion , the aim of d i s t r ibu t ive ju s t i ce f o r the rural poor is t o be the c r i t e r i a by which the ef fect iveness of 3DP should be judged. Since the e x i s t i w power s t ruc tu re i n the v i l l age socie ty comprising of a p r iv i - leged few t o t a l l y v i t i a t e t h i s primary aim of RDP by siphoning o f f the bene f i t s intended f o r the l a rge masses of rural poor, it i s l og ica l t h a t KD? should f i r s t a t t ach the very s t ructure . This means a t tacking the ex i s t ing property r e l a t ions and t r ans fe r r ing of productive reso'nces i n order t o s h i f t the socio-pol i t ica l power towards the r u r a l poor. A n y pol icy designed t o bypass the bas i c s t r u c t u r a l b a r r i e r s r a t h e r than confront them is bound t o f a i l .

2. Since no power s t ruc tu re would voluntar i ly l i qu ida te t h e i r power-base themselves, HOP as a process of soc ia l change i s bound, t o evoke conf l i c t s and res is tance from

the ex i s t ing power s t ructure . A t a pol icy l e v e l , therefore , it must be accepted t h a t the aim of RDP cannot be achieved pa in le s s ly - r a the r it has t o pass t h r o w h a d i a l e c t i c a l process of s t ruggl ing agains t a powerful r e s i s t ance which may, i n c e r t a i n circumstances, lead t o revolutionary s i tua t ions .

5. Vhether they be ' r a d i c a l ' , ' reformist ' o r ' technocrat ic ' s t r a t e g i e s , the ex i s t ing bureaucratic government machinery i s completely inadeq-uate, even dysfunctional i n many ins tances , t o implement p o o ~ o r i e n t e d RDP. It i s a l s o point less thinking t h a t throyqh l ec tu r ing o r preaching the ex i s t ing system of bu re iuc ra t i c funct ionar ies can be reoiyanised and reor iented t o inculcate proper comitments and a t t i t u d e s towards the rural poor. i i t hp r R3F should be implemented by ideoloftically committed pa r ty cadre s 'qported by the government i n power ( a s i n China) o r by intervening non-government-systems with non-binding but v.orking l inkage with the government system.

4. Since the bureaucrat ic government machinery - the prime a c t o r of FOP i n India - is c losely iden t i f i ed with the v i l l age power f o c i r e su l t ing i n t o t a l l o s s of its c r e d i b i l i t y t o the rural poor, and s ince rural development programmes a re very r a re ly generated spontanewaly, the importance of an ideologically committed group of outside intervenors is c l e i r . Essent ia l ly the r o l e of outside intervenors is t o develop the rural poor i n t o se l f - r e l i an t and self-generatin8 groups t o l o l i f t themse lves from degeneration and deprivation.

5. It is evident t h a t the p o l i c i e s should evolve a s t r a t egy t o ensure wider pa r t i c ipa t ion of the ru ra l poor i n the processes of KDP. I n the democratic s e t lip i n Ind ia today, t h i s is poss ible only by mobilizing the ru ra l poor t o organise themse lves i n a vi-zble ind se l f - r e l i an t organisa t ion o f t h e i r o m . The r o l e of the outside intervenors i s , therefore , t o i n i t i a t e mobilisation through RSP a c t i v i t i e s by u t i l i s i n g o r c rea t ing oppor tuni t ies on a continuing bas i s with a view t o becoming dispensible a t the e a r l i e s t .

6 . Since the bas ic object ive o f l?DF i s not only t o achieve dis- t r i bu t ive economic jus t i ce fo r the poor, but t o st imulate t h e i r creat ive urffes i n productive and meaningful ways. the pol icy framework cannot be r e s t r i c t e d t o time-bwmd qmnt i - t a t i v e t a rge t s . I t has t o emphasize development of c rea t ive facul ty of the suppressed, r u r a l poor, leading t o a co l l ec t ive conscio'-isness about t h e i r r i g h t s and a sp i r a t ions a s a group.

St ruc tu ra l chawes and socio-economic a c t i v i t i e s i n i t i a t e d through RDP should then be used as a means t o achieve the q u a l i t a t i v e transformation o f the md poor i n t o a co l l c c t i ve consciousnesp., consolidating t! i e i r a.ctions .

7. A s a pol icy , ECP has t o be spec i f i c target-gi-oup-oriented, and. f o r I n d i a t he t a rge t group i s 1-wx.l poor. An uridifferentiated RDP s t r a t egy i s bound t o perpetuate the 'ole, ozder ' , unless preceded by a firmly es tabl ished e g a l i t a r i a n system. Because t h e rural poor a r e extremely disorfanised, dispersed and heteropenous, wit11 asymmetric i n t e r e s t s and. dependency/ dominance r e l a t i onsh ips , the focus of ac t ions have t o be s p e c i f i c - a v i l l age o r a small d u s t e r o f l inked v i l l a g e s r a t h e r than t o a dis+,ri i t o r a taluka.

8. Las t ly , considering the m~;ni tud .e arid. complcxiiy of t he problems o l the r u r a l poor, the pol icy fr.iwv.orl'. of "-UP has t o be designed i n a sca le so a s t o gf?ricratf a c r i t i - cal minimum coumi-y-cice 'push' . For hov.ever v'ell- intentiofled HDF may be, a f i r ? . ~ ~ - i l l y incrercent~-1 and p a r t i a l in tervent ion i n micro-situations can a t bes t be o f some value a s learning e ' c p ~ r i f n c + , but t m & s t o be exp lo i t ed u l t imi t e iy by the l a r p e r force of the vested i n t e r e s t s .

Having- discussed some of the broad pol icy i s c w s . i t is not. pot-.nible t o ob jec t ive ly evolve a s u i t a b l e iniplerrcn'tation s t r i i c t u r ~ f o r EFP i n I n d i ~ , (See Diagram 1 ). "he implen'ent8ticn struct ,ure proposed ir t he paper is e s s e n t i a l l y based on cur undci?tanAin: ?ad experier.i.+s from the study o f a sc,ore of onyo iw rriicro-c-xperiments on K2. t ir. !r.dia,.5

The c r u c i a l element i n t he propowd icplcmcntz~.tion stmc"Wure is the ~ i ~ ~ - > ~ > ~ ~ $ p ~ ~ (01:) out:; i=e tkc gover~-nent sys l .e~ ,~ , but with suppor t i rg l inkages vit,h boti". g o v ~ ~ i w n t line. nor-f;overri>in'l i n s t i t u t i o n s . While t he support,ir+< systems usual ly have; h n i ticn.8- r i e s a t var ious adminis t ra t ive I cvels (e G:. ~ ~ i t i o r ~ l , st: t e , d i s t r i c + , taluka/block and. v i l l age ) , proposer CJB i s provided v. i - t l . an ' .~~hrf - l l . ' federa l s t r u c t u r e a,t t he nat ional l eve l . namfc-c. t he ;"aral !.r:velo~'p.r.nt FounoF.tion (I?tF).

Board cf '- 'rustees every f i v e years. The members of the Board of "rus-tees, includiw: t he Executive D i ~ c c t o r , should, be drawn from va r ious o i ~ a n i s a t i o n s and i n s t i t u ~ . i o n s i n India intfaiested and comnitted t o t,he a l t e rna t ive s t r a t e g i e s o f WS'.

Below the federa l s t ruc tu re , t he KST: will have q. Sta t e Level Co- oxdinazir& Body and. an ?.?my of Indeperdent Volunteer Cadres (IVC) sp~-e.id over a s t a t e i n distric?!; %nd ta_l.uka.s/blorl:s. V.hile t k e S t a t e Level Coordiri t i ' t . i~ Body may be a small-scrJe K3F, I1!Cs are t c be recrui ted jointly by the 'i > and the S t a t e Level C:oord.irititinf; 5o(iy. ?he I K C s v:ill. be mostly f resh graduates - both men and. womn. The eeeential q-ualification, o f t he I Y C s shoulu no? be the decrees o r subjec t of speri?.li7.ation but the v ~ i l l irgness and motivation t c l i v e and. v.ork i n the vi1lp.f-os s.niori(; the poor f o r a t w o year mirirnm. i iven l.he prevail ing: rr.te of edu~.~t.cci unenploynent and f n i s t r s t i o n s v i t h t he formal educatic,n syst.er.:, it is not d i l i i c u l t t c a t t r a c t s u f f i c i e n t n'mbe.-'-s of IVC ir. 1r.ciis. f o r t he challingirtf: experience o f v.orkiv; on l!l)Ps.

','iv cnrr: L ! ar-ticr. on T:?i' in *,.;~'."-r t,. mufci1iy.c .; i-l poor w i l l I ie on +!.e I'ICq 2qwnriir.c or; tlif- l ~ ~ f a - 1 vil'!a+-p sit ' iri t icr.~. 3iri-e thf , locus . w t i o n on V9 is the v i l . l t @ ~ . I :-.r 'r. G!: the :I!(,? s':,o'Aci be b.-ised ir: TL v i l 1 . - v e i i . thc area tc h e coverrd hy hi.c","her. ', it11 "tic? sq'pt-~rtlry-" l i r k v e s d.0-,'eloped. 3 t o L >'!C.r riicnCi'1 bp :a.dpi,~~.te t o cover a t?-luka/ block. "'his nef-v.. f o r 5CKV hl".ri<s i r the roiantry about 1 %COO t o ?C',CW ' S V f f c 3 . i~dd he neede-C f c c o v e r -t qr;: ror'.rt. of t ine .?

they are coalesced i n t o a macro movement - a long drawn process given the widely d i f f e r ing s i tua t iona l responses. It i s therefore necessa- r i l y expedient, fo r sheer survival of t he micro movements:, t o be in i - t i a l l y ( i f not on a continuing b a s i s ) l inked with macro l e v e l organisa t ions and po l i c i e s a s a supporting system. 'i'his i s bas ica l ly a compromise i n order t o evolve a wider national a l t e rna t ive out of a l a rge number of micro movements, keeping i n view the time const ra in ts and f a c i l i t a t i n g fac tors f o r ent ry and survival of micro act ions a t the v i l l a g e l eve l .

I t i e on the b a s i s of the compromise t h a t the proposed implementation s t ruc tu re bui lds the supportirg l inkages with the macro and micro l e v e l government and non-government organisations and ins t i t u t ions , a process which supports and makes legi t imate the i n i t i a l ent ry and act ion by the IVCs a t v i l l age level . Also, such l i r h g e s may provide a legi t imate base f o r i n i t i a t i n g micro act ions p a r a l l e l t o the r ad ica l pol icy measures and propamnee already undertaken a t the macro l e v e l by the government due t o p o l i t i c a l and other expediencies. I n f ac t , some of the macro changes s e t i n t o motion by the nat ional and s t a t e governments i n Ind ia e . g . Land reforms and. land-ceil ing ac t s along with loop-holes, laws agains t moneylenaprs and bonded labour, investment a l locat ion fo r c rea t ing soc ia l and economic f a c i l i t i e s i n the r u r a l areas, budgetary a l loca t ion creat ing employment, various schemes di rected a t small/ marginal farmm-s/landless apr i cu l t u r a l labourers, drowht-prone areas , and t r i b a l a r e i s , and bank c r e d i t f a c i l i t i e s i n favourable t e rns t o the poor e t c . ) can be used by the I V C s t o pair. time, c r e d i b i l i t y and l ega l protect ion, which w i l l f irmly e s t ab l i sh micro movements on a sound footing before they become coalesced in to a. nationwide movement. 1%

t he o the r hand, a s the micro movements bec.ome s t ronger on a nationwide scale , they are l i x e l y t o generate su f f i c i en t pressure on the ex i s t ing macro sys ten (government and non-&ovemnient) t o force a qua l i t a t ive change i n the planning and pol icy p r i o r i t i e s is! favour of t he rwal poor.

I t is c l e a r from the proposed implementa.tion stn.ict.ure t h a t the success of the a l t e r r z t i v e s t r a t eg ie s of H2P i s dependent sole ly on the success of the IVCs i n i n i ' t i c ~ t i w micro movements. ':he cn.icia.l question is, therefore: how do the' IVLs i n i t i a t e micro movements? Ubviously, the modus operand! have t o be f l ex ib le t o respond t o varyl rg loca l s i tuat ions . This does not mean t h a t plaiuiing fo r a common model of micro l e v e l p ro jec t design i s meaningless. Vhat it. means is t h a t while the spec i f i c s of the micro ac t ion have t o be devised individually i n

response t o the l oca l can be planned on the KDP .

s i t u a t i o n s , some genera l i sed guiding p r inc ip l e s bas i s o f o w learning from various attempts on

Vhat i s proposed here a s a modus erandi f o r micro l e v e l ac t ion i s e s s e n t i a l l y based on ' con f l i c t m o g l ' o f development.6 The basic assumption here i s t h a t t he rural poor can be mobilised when they a re s u f f i c i e n t l y discontented and exci ted about any concrete event/si tua- t i o n arousinf: con f l i c t , such a s property r e l a t i o n s ( e . g . land tenure) , inequal d i s t r i b u t i o n of productive a s se t s , corrupt ion and exp lo i t a t i on , d iscr iminat ing soc i a l s t ruc tu re , inequal i t ies i n income-earning oppor- t u n i t i e s and so on. But merely identif' . .ily e x i s t i n g c o n f l i c t s i t u a t i o n s cannot mobilize t he r u r a l poor, 'dhe approach is t o p lan a s t r a t egy of in tervent ions on the exiatinr; c o n f l i c t s i t u a t i o n s , t o ensure some tangible bene f i t s i n the s h o r t e s t poss ib le time and a t minimum r i sk . I'o t he rural poor, the most important benef i t is necessar i ly economic - income-earnjw opportunity. '?bus, the i n t e rven t ion stru.tei;ies aimed a t removing existirg conf1ic:ts o r cont radic t ions should be seen by the poor as measures which would help them e s s e n t i a l l y achieve concrete economic benef i t s .

I n implementiw the ' con f l i c t model' o f RDP, t he IVCs nerd t o follow a lqic?.! pz.tte1-n. As mi outs ide intei-venor, t he IVC i s l i v e l y t o face s t i f f resista.nce and d i s t r u s t from the v i l l a g e r s , apa r t from constant f e a r of the- d isas t rous consequences of l a i l u r e i n involvir+; themselvts i n t he process o f s t r u c t u r a l intcrverit ions. ".'he I V C , therefore , has t o builci h i s % r G A E 1 a by p r o v i ~ g h i s tnktv!o~%hjness a n t dedicatiorl t o t he c a m e of t he rur.i-L poor. "he only wdy t o achieve t h i s i s t o l i v e i n the v i l l a g e s win e s t a b l i s h an i n t i r a t e iiialofue v.ith thf v i l la f -ers <hrowh meeiirqs arid discussions about the e x i s t i n g si twtionsi and the poss ib le remedial ac t ions which could be i n i t i a t e d by them. Also, i t i s important AS a r i entry st rite;.^ f o r the I V C t o be uninvolved with e x i s t i n g o f f i c i a l and nor-officip.1 or~ru';isatioi.s/function~iries beyonc the s t a r e of lef-:timisin&: his presence, ..in6 cci-t?.inly not at t he s tage of est . ihlishing d i a l o g i i ~ o r implemcnti-i.1 ior: o f in tervent ions .

It i s durin,"thr strenuous am?. moat c i i f l ' i cd t process o f e s t ab l i sh ing r3vdibi l i t .y tl-et the I V f v ~ i l l acqxire s u f f i c i e n t ur~terstandiiTg of the p r e v a i l i ~ c o n f l i c t i n the villa<.-? a r c 1 be able t o i den t i fy -;recific c3.ses f o r in;i.i.T-.i?- Â¥<.-tie v.Slirh r-ir. r-eri<-rate immediate economic bcn.ffi ta t o the poor. "hc IVC. %i l l be able , i n the process, t o i den t i fy tY.c .i.'"t'in-l hnf'J.-,-!iy(', i .P. the r'.w.il pocr.

attempt any formal academic surveys/research, which a re not only dys- funct ional , but a l s o are a wastage of money a n d t i n e . However,for h i s personal record, understan<ins; ?a?. reference, he may document h i s v ievs w.?. f a c t s gathered i n the dialogues v i t h the villag-ers.

Having grasped the nature o f the ex i s t i ng c o n f l i c t s i t u a t i o n s i n re la- t i o n t o an iden t i f i ab l e t a r g e t c o u p , the IVCs should, decide an en t ry p0ir.t i n t e rns of a v iable v i l l age p r o j e r t . In deciding the ent ry po in t , t he IVC needs t o consider two 'baaic i ssues : f i r s t l y , t he p r o j e c t must 'bring imnedisite rconomic bene f i t t o the t a r s t groizp simply beca.nsn the mater ia l incent.ive i s the most important, ind perhaps the onl,'- moti- va t ing force l o r the rural poor to organise thc'maeives, a l so it provi.'icf t he e s s e n t i . d economic s t ay ix powv q-? ins t the ~ x p l o i t a t i v e sys-Lcm. ^h i s does not necessar i ly ne'm t h a t other ent ry po in t s l i k e he.2.lt.h o r education should not be ased i n s p c r i f i c s i t u? t ions . 3 h e LVCa' zos t iraportqit ccns iaera t ion i n (lecidi-y tile el l try po in t i s , : ; r - i ~ i i ~ rapid. acceptance and. c r e d i b i l i t y i n the eyes o f tihe :,TOW. h?-t is , therÂ¡fore e iq lbs ized here i s the f ac t th'1.t RVPI'. i f the i n i t i a l en t ry point i s non-economic. i h i c h e s s?n t iS l ; ' l i i 2s the strerc-ch i n not iva l - ins' the r u r a l pour, i t soon ho.s t u move tot.arAs economic a c t i v i t i e s bene f i t t i nq the: t~ i ' ; e t go*.

i i v e n the?^ two corisidrrations it i s b e t t e r t o choose :m ccoronic f .ct i- v i t ; 2s an en t ry > o i l t , which seeimnqi.y looks inoccuoi-is enviql'!, t o t l i r e . i t ~ n the v i l l a g e pov:e2 f o r k ".his economic a c t i v i t y zhoi i l j . r - t i t~~ -a l l~ be, t o s t a r t with, a process o f asÂ¡ c r e i t i o n r a t h e r than a s s e t d i s t r i - bution. Th i s process can he ini't..i.xted e i t h e r by i n t r o d u c i x new t,echnolofy i n t h ~ ".<istin;-; 9:-c~-l'.:ction process, by financ\.r:v, i.he ti-idi- t i o r 4 economic %cxivit.ies, by ozy~i-fusiw b e t t o r nark<- t i rg f ^ c i l i t i , ? s o r by combin-itions o f t he tin-ec b s i c f-mcLions o f econoxic : i f t iv i ty (P.,?.

technolof^v, c a p i t a l and. mar:k?tin!-;). h?tevc-";' m y be' Lhty pconorrlic functions emphasized a t the f-ntt?? po in t , ti..? t z r ~ e t grouii v.oiAd need r ind . depend on re-n.ssura.ncfis from the outside intervenorr, i.?. t he IVCs t:) s t i r t wi th - the more coqilex t h ~ funr t icns of the erono-iic i c t i v i t y . t he Myher the d~pendence .

The CIS or the I V C s should, provide re-assurances t o the extent needed i n the s i tua t ion . ThÂ£-'5 would e s sen t i a l ly be i n the form of assured economic-benefits, which i n tu rn v;oold be t i e d t o technological/finan- ci=l/mariwting aids. I n the absence o f in t e rna l resources lor such re-assuring a ids , the 013 o r the IVCs should, take advantage of the ex i s t ing goverriment schemes o r o ther semi-governmentil o r non-goverri- mental i n s t i t u t i o n a l schemes through the supporting l inkages, which a r c l e r i t imi sed and developed by the 01s. Thus, the ent ry p ro jec t s t a r t s within the ex i s t ing l e g a l , p o l i t i c a l and administrative framework without creat ing immediate h o s t i l i t y from the old power foc i of the v i l l age . T h i s does not me.in t h a t the ent ry project need always be s t a r t e d viith the aim of not arot.18iP; h o s t i l e opposition from the vested i n t e r e s t s . There could be s i tua t ions , fo r example, where the target z,~oup i s already or?anised. and conscientised su f f i c i en t ly fo r implementing a r ad ica l pro.Tamrne of a s se t d i s t r ibu t ion , l i c e , land reform, stopping o f f i c i a l and non-official corruptions, o r laws agains t the exp lo i t a t ion of moneylenders and t raders . There a l so could be s i t u a t i o n s where such r ad ica l prograinoes are current ly being implsmented by the covernment administrative machineries. I t would be v.orthwhile f o r the IVCs t o involve themselves rightaway i n these prot;Â¥rainÂ¥n in s p i t e of po ten t i a l opposit ion t o bu i ld t h e i r c r e d i b i l i t y and t r u s t - v.orthiness. I n e i t h e r s i tua t ion , the en t r y proj.?ct would remain v:ithin the l e g a l and adninistr?.tive f r ~ ~ w v o r k , bu? d i r e c t l y confrontiw; the vested, i n t e r e s t s of the v i l l a g e power foci.

The entry p ro jec t as aell aas the subse;.uent i n t e rven t io r i must be p1,inned. and implpmented by the t a rge t ;70i.r-) themselves r a the r than be ireposfd by the; IVCs. ".'he r o l e o f the 1VC:s i s t o i n i t i ~ t c and. stinula.te o iyc ' ~ s s i o n s 2 1 2 0 ~ the nwbe r s of the t a rge t Froup tliroush cre.i t ing a i t ' l ? i l e for'ms. "hroiv:h in tens ive d i d o - w e with target groq both indivi~ti.ia.lly and i n ["rows [weridy o r f o r t n i ~ 9 t l y 3ieetiws), the IVC's a r e t.o p.tin-.il.-vte ideas abut tlv po:;sible ac t ion p r o j e c ~ s --nit i t s iinplÂ¡n?n<:i. :on stra.ter':i>-s from moq; Uw t.:?.rgat , r o t q ~ i t sp l f .

It should be understood t h a t the process of evolution of a somewhat s t ructured form of an organisation of the t a r g e t g r o w requires patience and pers is tence of the IVCs. There w i l l c e r t a in ly be a l o t of hes i ta- t i o n , apprehension, d i s t r u s t and conf l i c t inc claims among t he members of the t a r g e t group, which the I V C s have t o g e t resolved i n a d i a l q i c a l process by the t a r g e t group themselves. I t i s i n t h i s process t h a t economic a c t i v i t i e s pose c e r t a i n l imi t a t ions , pa r t i cu la r ly , i f these a c t i v i t i e s a r e new i n the s i tua t ion . l i ven the i n i t i a l amount o f re- assurances and dependency, there w i l l be g r e a t e r o s c i l l i a t i o n in learning se l f - re l iance and self-generat* group work according t o the l e v e l s of success and f a i l u r e of the economic a c t i v i t i e s , a s compared t o non-economic a c t i v i t i e s , l i k e , heal th and education. On the one hand, when the economic a c t i v i t y succeeds t o the extent t h a t t he re i s continuous flow o f economic bene f i t s , then there i s l i k e l y t o be complacenc~ among the t a r g e t c ~ o u p i n learning t o be se l f - r e l i an t . On the o the r hand, learning tends t o become negative i f the economic a c t i v i t y is a f a i lu re i n the sense t h a t there is no flow of economic bene f i t s f o r a long time. The only way the I V C s could tackle the s i t u a t i o n is t o de l ibe ra t e ly involve the members of the t a r g e t j,ro'q~ i n all the major functions of the economic a c t i v i t i e s (finance, marketing and technology) as a learning mechanism i n order t o make them aware o f t he l imi t a t ions and thereby evolve su i t ab le norms of grow.) functioning. There cannot be any readpade formula f o r tackl ing such s i tun t ions - only a s t ra tegy of creat ive manoeuveriw by judicio'osly balancing the anol-int of re-assurances and withdrawal of supporting in tervent ions by the IVCs.

I t is p rec i se ly the cons t r a in t s of the economic a c t i v i t i e s alone i n sus ta in ing mobilization o f the rural poor t h a t necess i ta tes d i r e c t s t r u c t u r a l interventions. As soon a s there evolves a bas ic but tenuo's co l l ec t ive s p i r i t around economic a c t i v i t i e s i n i t i a t e d a s ent ry p ro jec t s , the focus should s h i f t t o the l a r g e r socio-economic system i n t h ~ form of s t r u c t u r a l in tervent ions through a s e r i e s of e s c d a t i ~ confronta- t i ons with the bas ic conf l i c t s i t ua t ions . [\n inordinate delay i n escala t ing the process beyond the ent ry project (economic a c t i v i t y ) may cause s tagnat ion submerging the dynamic po ten t i a l fo r continuous mobilization o f the t a rge t group. On the o ther hand, conacientisation of t h e t a r g e t ~ O ' W i n t h e i r r i g h t s and powers a s a co l l ec t ive body i n bringing about the s t r u c t - a d s h i f t s i n its favour can be a dynamic s t r a t e g i c f ac to r t o mobilize them continuously.

By s t r u c t u r a l s h i f t s , it does not mean here only land reform and land re-dis t r ibut ion, which ce r t a in ly are the most important s t ruc tu ra l r e l a t ionsh ips t o be r ad ica l ly corrected. Perhaps, land reform could

be the beginning of s t r u c t u r a l in tervent ions , followed by in tervent ions i n r e l a t i o n t o the moneylenders/traders/intermediaries, corrupt o f f i c i a l s and non-officials, soc i a l d iscr iminat ion due t o cas te and r e l i g i o n , wage s t ruc tu re and re-dis t r ibut ion o f productive a s s e t s o ther than land (e.8. c a t t l e , ag r i cu l tu ra l machinery, e t c . ) As it progresses, there should be a de l ibe ra t e s t r a t egy t o e sca l a t e the s t r u c t u r a l in tervent ions f o r quali- t a t i v e l y higher order co l l ec t ive consciousness i n r e l a t i o n t o enforcing more budgetory a l l oca t ions f o r r u r a l development pro( TsLssQes from government and non-,-ovcrnment SOUTCPS, co l l ec t ive management of landholdings and other production/marketing r e l a t e d a c t i v i t i e s , bui ld ing physical inf ra- s t ruc tu re s , such as, roads, i r r Q a t i o n / d r a i n q e , and other publ ic u t i l i t i e s and s o on.

I t should be noted t h a t while t he s e r i e s o f s t r u c t u r a l in tervent ions are planned and implemented by the t a r g e t group i n an e sca l a t ing manner over a period o f time, they sho-ild be v ' i thin t he ex i s t i ng l ega l and administra- t i v e framework t o start with, which eventually nay force recLuirt=d changes in the macro pol ic ips . But. i n order t o crea te s u f f i c i e n t amount of pressure f o r required changes i n the macro p o l i c i e s , the i n d i v i d ' d micro movements should be strorv; and coalesced i n t o a na t ional movement. This can happen v ~ i t h i n the framework of the OIS suggested i n the paper. As a s t a r t i ng point , f o r example, t he IVCs i n i t i a t e t h e micro-novements as discussed above i n a v i l l a - e o r two i n a taluka/block and. then spread over t he whole taluka/'blocic, based on the experiences l e a r n t i n t he i n i t i a l v i l l ages . By u3iq; t h r vo ly r . t~e r s from the t a rge t groups i n the i n i t i a t i n g v i l l q e s , ac t ion p ro j ec t s can be multiplied and extended i n severa l v i l l a f e s i n t he t,ilu!<a, f o r which a s t r o r y sense o f c lass- ident i ty and uni ty need -to be develc,ped vi- thin the t ;-rgei group. such a process can never be a time-bound ( i i~ .n t i t ^ . t i ve t a rge t or iented prorr.m?e, but a n in tens ive dir^loipe aimed t v q i r l i t . a t i ve ly chi-'~~,"*r the- people, i.e. t he disa'lvantfu:ed ru ra l poor i n order t o help then be se l f - r e l i an t ind orf%niseri f o r improviry t h e i r l i v e s .

Cnce a s u l f i c i e n t l y l m f e number of m i n o moveiients - t i n strenffth i n 1 e l i t i o n t o the c,uditativt- rh i 'yps nentioned %hove, they can be coalesced i n t o rc?ion.il and federa l s t r ~ i c t ~ m s f o r o r ~ i n i s i x t he minimum c r i t i c i l 'push' for require3 C ~ L - I , , , , ir thp ~.ol:.cy fra.inevu1-I. a t the s t a t e and rtaticcrdt I fveli , .

NCTES: - 1. World. Bank, Rural Development : Sector Policy Paper, February 1575.

5. As many as 20 d i f f e r e n t o w o i w micro-c.xperipients on BDP i n India a r e c:losely observed and s tudied by the author, of which two are sunmiari-

sed. and reported t o I T O A a s supporting mater ia ls fo r t h i s paper. The author himself has been ac t ive ly involved i n these t r o micro-experiments. In t e r e s t ed readers may contact ITOA fo r r epo r t s refer red t o here.

4. The soiirccs of f inancia l a i d should, be used very judiciously and caut ious ly , in t h e sense t h a t i t should not l ead t o bureaucratic cont ro l and. unnecessary rQiG rules and procedures, and prol i fers . t ion of report- ing system.

5. The t o t a l cost, of s t ipends f o r ma in t a in iw 15,OOO t o 20,000 IVCs @ F j 600 pe r month would be on3y k 0.9 t o 1.2 mill iot? pe r year. Apart from the s t ipends , t he o the r admirist .rat ive cos t s f o r the e n t i r e Outsice It i tervenor Syst,ern (01s) w i l l be minimal.

6. xor d e t a i l s of t he ' c o n f l i c t model', see t h e a r t i c l e s o f t h e p re sen t author: "Techniques of Mobilizing Rural People t o Support R u r a l ikve1opmer.t kroyramme" , i n Amara Raksas t~ya and L.; .Irederic'<s (eda . ; , BuraJ ... 'fipvelofii'ient --._ --.-. Training --.. --.-.---.-- t o Meet NPV: ---- Challenges, Vol.4.. pp. 570-1 01 5 Kuala Lumpur : Asian and i ' a c i f i c Cevelopment Adr.iinist.ration Centre,

1578).

ESTRATEGIAS PARA LA EJECUCION DE PROGRAMAS DE DESARROLLO RURAL EN LA INDIA

Es te i n f o r m e a n a l i z a 10s programas de d e s a r r o l l o r u r a l en l a I n d i a y concluye que l a s imper fecc iones , t e r g i v e r s a c i o n e s y d i l u c i o n e s en l a e j e c u c i o n de e s t o s programas j u s t i f i c a n e l argument0 que rnantiene que para b i e n poner en e j e c u c i o n t a l e s programas, a q u e l l o s que fonnan l a p o l 7 t i c a t i e n e n que t e n e r un e n t e n d i - m ien to fundamental de t r e s puntos: ( 1 ) l a s cond ic iones o b j e c t i v a s que predomi- nan en l a r e g i o n r u r a l , ( 2 ) 10s f i n e s y p r o p o s i t o s de l d e s a r r o l l o r u r a l , y (3 ) con l a ayuda de exper imentos pasados, de te rm inar cuando, coma, p o r qu i6n y qu6 c l a s e de p r o y e c t o de d e s a r r o l l o r u r a l es p r o p i o a es tos f i n e s y p r o p o s i t o s . Las e s t r a t e g i a s que se emplean son d e c i s i v a s .

La s i q u i e n t e p resen tac i6n de programas de d e s a r r o l l o r u r a l en I n d i a repasa 10s exper imentos pasados de e s t e p a i s y recomienda e s t r a t e g i a s a l t e r n a t i v a s basadas sobre una e j e c u c i 6 n e s t r u c t u r a l pa ra acc ion a'l n i v e l l o c a l .

M A T E R I AUX

CHOIX ENERGETIWS ET CHOIX DE SOCIETE : WTHES ET REALITES DES SENTIERS ENERGETIQUES DOUX

par Jean-Charles Hourcade A t tache de Recherche au CNRS CIRED 54, b l v d . Raspa i l 75270 P a r i s , France

Langue o r i g i n a l e : Francais

Resume: La p r o l i f e r a t i o n de t ravaux s u r des s e n t i e r s energet iques doux e s t un symptome dans l e domains s c i e n t i f i q u e des r e f u s n u c l e a i r e s comme a v e n i r necessa i re des syst@mes energe t iques . Ces etudes o n t l e m e r i t e r e e l d ' o u v r i r l e champ des p o s s i b l e s en conc luan t a des n iveaux t r g s bas de consommation d ' e n e r g i e p a r t e t e . E11es n e g l i g e n t cependant l ' a m p l e u r des retombees s u r l a forme memo de l a s o c i e t e d e s s o l u t i o n s "apparemment techniques" preconisees e t sous-est iment l e s i n e r t i e s s o c i a l e s .

Ce t e x t e , e c r i t en oc tobre 1978, resume 1es p r i n c i p a l e s conc lus ions de l a r e - cherche e f f e c t u e e au CIRED, avec l a c o l l a b o r a t i o n de Lauren t D a r t o i s , Dominique Gourmelon e t Nina Kousnetzof f , avec l e s c o n s e i l s de M. Lou is Puiseux. I 1 s ' a p p u i e s u r des analyses c r i t i q u e s ( q u i s e r o n t p u b l i e e s dans l a revue F u t u r i b l e s ) de c e r t a i n s scenar ios . ( V o i r l a l i s t e l a page 2 )

C H O I C E OF ENERGY AND S O C I E T A L CHOICES : MYTHS AND R E A L I T I E S OF SOFT ENERGY PATHS

A b s t r a c t : The p r o l i f e r a t i o n o f s t u d i e s on s o f t energy paths i s a symptom, w i t h i n t h e s c i e n t i f i c wor ld , o f t h e r e f u s a l t o accept t h e i n e v i t a b i l i t y o f n u c l e a r energy. These s t u d i e s have t h e m e r i t o f widening o p t i o n s f o r a r r i v i n g a t ve ry low l e v e l s o f p e r capu t energy consumption. However, i n p u t t i n g fo rward appa- r e n t l y t e c h n i c a l s o l u t i o n s , they n e g l e c t t h e f u l l impact o f these on t h e organ- i z a t i o n o f s o c i e t y and they underest imate t h e o p p o s i t i o n t o change a r i s i n g f rom s o c i a l i n e r t i a .

Th is paper, w r i t t e n i n October 1978, i s a summary o f t h e p r i n c i p a l conc lus ions o f a research p r o j e c t undertaken by the au thor a t CIRED, w i t h t h e ass is tance o f Lauren t D a r t o i s , Dominique Gourmelon and Nina Kousnetzof f , and t h e adv ice o f Lou is Puiseux. The analyses o f s p e c i f i c scenar ios on which i t i s based a r e t o be p u b l i s h e d i n F u t u r i b l e s . ( F o r a l i s t o f these scenar ios , see page 2 )

Traduccion en Espatiol en l a psgina 16

Scenar ios analyses

John S. S t e i n h a r t e t a l i i : A Low Energy Scenar io f o r the U n i t e d S ta tes 1975- 2050, I n s t i t u t e f o r Envi ronmental S tud ies , U n i v e r s i t y o f Wisconsin, Madison, - IES Report 83, J u l y 1977.

A t ime t o choose Scenar io ZEG (Zero Energy Growth), p r o j e c t o f t h e Ford Foundat ion, B a l l i n g e r P u b l i s h 1977.

Amory B. Lov ins : " E x p l o r i n g E n e r g y - E f f i c i e n t Futures f o r Canada", Carnets dlEpargne, Consei l des Sciences du Canada, Vol.1, No.4, m a i - j u i n 1976.

B. Sorensen, "Energy and Resources", Science, Vol . l 8 9 , No.4198, 25 J u l y 1975.

Work Group o f t h e I n t e r n a t i o n a l Federa t ion o f I n s t i t u t e s f o r Advc;,ced Study, Energy Demand i n Denmark 1990-2025 : A Case Study, N i l s Bohr I n s t i t u t e , September 1976.

Lonroth, Steen and Johanson, Energy i n T r a n s i t i o n , S e c r e t a r i a t f o r Fu tu re S tud ies , Stockholm, 1977.

G.S. H a r r i s , M.J. E l l i s , G . C . S c o t t , J.R. Wood and P.H. P h i l l i p s , "Energy scenar ios f o r New Zeal and", t h e U n i v e r s i t y o f Auckland, P r i v a t e Bag, Auckland New Zealand, Energy, vo1.3, pp.1-14, Pergamon Press 1978.

"US Energy Demand : Some Low Energy Fu tu res" , Demand and Conservat ion Panel o t h e Committee on Nuclear and A l t e r n a t i v e Energy Systems (CONAES), Science, vol.200, 14 A p r i l 1978.

P r o j e t ALTER Etude d 'un a v e n i r energe t ique pour l a France axe s u r 1e p o t e n t i e l renouve lab le , Esquisse d 'une regime 2 l o n g terrne t o u t s o l a i r e p a r l e Groupe de Be1 levue .

Assessrent o f A1 t e r n a t i v e Energy/Environment Futures f o r A u s t r i a : 1977-2015, 25 October 1977, Schloss Laxenburg, A u s t r i a .

Jean-Charles Hourcade

CHOIX ENERGETIQUES ET CHOIX DE SOCIETE : MYTHES ET REALITES DES SENTIERS ENERC-ETIQUES DOUX

1. Le statut des "sentiers gnergetiques doux" : quelques precau- tions de methode

Le developpement recent de travaux visant 2 dgmontrer la pos- sibilite d'une stabilisation 2 lonq terme du niveau de consommation energetique par t6te dans les pays industriels avances s'explique par trois motivations principales :

- la certitude sinon d'un epuisement, du moins d'un renche- rissement 2 lonq terrne, des ressources d'energie fossile;

- une qrande prudence envers le nucleaire, et surtout des surreqGnerateurs, comme relai definitif 2 ces energies, 2 cause de ses implications 6coloqiques et sociales.Ceci exclut Ie retour 2 une lonque periode de plethore d'enerqie 2 bas coiit;

- la volonte de promouvoir des systSmes d'approvisionnement fondes sur des energies renouvelables, supposees "douces" quant 2 leurs impacts sur les grands equilibres naturels, en tout cas neu- tres quant au bilan thermique ou radioactif de la planete. Cela suppose que la demande reste 2 un niveau modere, inferieur aux flux d'energies recuperables qui, inepuisables 2 long terme, sont limitees par unites de temps et d'espaces.

I1 s'agit done de strategies de minimisation des risques 2 long terme devant la croissance cumulative des dangers d'une pour- suite des styles energetiques actuels, les incertitudes des technologies alternatives (nucleaire, fusion) et la mont6e de la competition mondiale pour les ressources. On se trouve en presence de travaux 2 rneme finalite, inspires par une philosophie implici- te qui n'est autre que Ie repondant, au sein du monde scientifi- que, des motivations du mouvement ecologique. C'est pourquoi il importe de les distinguer d'autres etudes, que nous utiliserons dans ce texte comme point de reference (1,2), qui s'en distin- guent par :

- l'absence de vision "a priori" explicite pour le regime 2 long terme;

- un horizon temporel qeneralement plus court et done des marqes de libertgs plus faibles;

- une reelle prudence quant 2 des ruptures profondes sur le modele de developpement;

- la prise en compte de contraintes economiques.

Lesl'sentiers energetiques doux" constituent une tentative pour corner une des bornes de l'univers des possibles en pren ant Ie contrepied des prospectives energetiques developpees avant 1973, encore dominantes aujourd'hui, et qui reposent sur l'hypo- these d'une liaison mecanique 6nerqie/PNB. Ces approches condui- saient soit 2 une croissance exponentielle de la demande, soit

(1) A time to choose.- Scenario ZEG (Zero Energy Growth), project of the Ford Foundation, Ballinger Publish 1977.

(2) US Energy Demand : some low energy futures. Demand and Conser- vation Panel of the Committee on Nuclear and Alternative Energy (CONAES), Science, vol. 200, 14 April 1978.

entre autres chez Fremont Felix ( l ) , 2 un plafonnement au niveau de 20 2 25 tec/hab., c'est-2-dire deux fois Ie niveau nord-americain actuel et 4 2 5 fois Ie niveau europeen.

Toute rupture m6thodologique en matiere de prospective d'action 6nerq6tique consiste 2 considerer 1'Slasticite 6nerqie/PNB comme une variable d'action et non comme un parametre technique, puis 2 s'interroger sur les possibilites de modulation de cette variable (2).Au plan theorique, on doit distinguer :

1.1. La reduction de l'elasticite enerqie utile/PNB

Elle peut venir : - des 6conomies d'gnergie proprement dites, ensemble de so-

lutions techniques qui visent 2 diminuer l'energie reellement utile pour un bien ou un service donn6(climatisation, amelioration des rendmenets des appareils ... ) . Domaine qeneralement bien connu et explore, il donne lieu 2 des accords assez larqes, le seul debat se situant au niveau des processus institutionnels permettant de les realiser;

- de la structure m6me du PNB qui depend de : . la structure de la demande finale de biens et services, ce qui renvoie au modele de croissance; . la structure du commerce int6rieu~ qui determine celle de l'activite industrielle du pays et son degre de specialisation.

Elle determine l'ecart entre la quantit6 d16nergies utiles et les besoins en Snergie primaire. Chaque transformation d'une forme d'enerqie en une autre donne en effet lieu .Z des pertes, en particulier pour celles passant par des moteurs thermicues (toute la thermoelectricit6 qu'elle soit d'oriqine fossile, nucleaire ou solaire) 2 cause des rendements de Carnot. La variable centrale est ici la structure des enerqies secondaires qui determine en grandepartie le rendement du passaqe enerqie primaire/ enerqie utile. Cela devrait conduire, d'apres Amory Lovins, 2 revoir la place de 1'6lectricit6 qu'il est enerq6tiquement roc- teux d'utiliser pour les besoins de chaleur qui representent environ la moitie des besoins d'enerqie.

L'ensemble des etudes analysees font intervenir chacun de ces trois elements mais pas toujours de facon suffisamment explicite pour isoler les effets respectifs de chacun d'entre eux. Une telle insuffisance est surtout due 2 11impossibilit6 pratique, aujourd'hui, de mener avec suffisamment de precision l'etude des differentes variables de modulation de la demande.

(1) FELIX (Fremont) .- Florid Parkets of Tomorrow : Eczomic Growth Population Trends, ElectricityL-Quality of L a Earper and Row, New York, 1971-72.

(2) On peut se reporter ici 2 Bertrand CHATEAU et Bruno LAPILLONNE: La prevision 2 long terme +ela demande d'energie, proppsi- tions methodoloqiques C N R S , Colloque Enerqie et Soci6t6, Paris, 1977.

" i LLOVTM!" (Rmory R.) :- L'6conomie 5nerm6tirrue dans In r6crion de la Cvr, prnbl^nies nnuvoaux i woven et '5 long ter"ie, TCE (XXXITT).

En effet, on ne dispose pas aujourd'hui : - d'un cadre comptable permettant de decontracter suffisam-

ment l'analyse de la demande d'energie dans la mesure 06, c o m e le montre P. Ramain (l), les comptabilit6s 6nergetiques actuelles ont 6t6 6labor6e.s du point de vue des producteurs. L'un des obstacles majeurs est la mauvaise qualit6 des donnees statistiques sur 1'6nergie utile. Meme chez A. Lovins, qui plaide vigoureusement en faveur d'une meilleure prise en compte de la deuxieme loi de la thermodynamiaue, l'analyse s'arrete en fait 2 la demande finale (en termes d'energies secondaires delivrees au consoma- teur), ce qui, nous Ie verrons, ent2iche ses conclusions sur la part de lf61ectricit6 dans le bilan global;

- d'outils d'analyse permettant de tester la coherence de modSles de soci6te alternatifs, manque qui se fait surtout sentir pour le secteur industriel oii on est r6duit 2 projecter des taux de croissance tendant vers zero sur le long terme, et, 2 un degr6 moindre, pour le secteur transport.

C'est pourquoi il parait important de souligner qu'en l'etat, ces scenarios doivent Etre utilises c o m e des gutils d'analyse permettant de cerner les enjeux d'une pr6mice normative et ne permettent en aucun cas de demontrer le caractGre souhaitable, voire mEme realisable, de l16vo1ution illustree. Le Groupe de Bel- levue a le merite de bien souligner que "l'etude reste faite 2 un niveau rudimentaire d16valuations num6riquesr' et que Ie parti adopt6 vise 5 "eclairer le champ des possibilit6s du point de vue physique en pr6jugeant Ie moins possible des caract6ristiques socio-politiques de l'avenir. Toutefois, il est clair que Ie regime energetique envisage 2 long terme s'inscrit davantage dans la perspective d'une soci6t6 "d6concentr6e1' et valorisant l'au- tosubsistance que dans celle d'une hyper-specialisation. Ainsi, bien que les hypotheses retenues n'impliquent pas un projet de societ6 au sens politique usuel du terme, ce travail peut appor- ter un certain eclairage sur les limites physiques d'un tel projet".

2. Analyse comparative des resultats (2)

Le tableau 1 fait apparaitre une convergence r6elle des niveaux de stabilisation des besoins d'enerqie sur Ie long terme (de 3.1. tec/hab. a 3 tec/hab. pour l'energie finale delivr6e ( 3 ) ) si on s'en tient aux versions les plus basses des scenarios pre-

R?.MAIN (Patrice).- R6flexions critiques sur les bilans 6ner- getiques, CURS, Collection Energie et Soci6t6, Paris, 1977.

I1 est trEs hasardeux de mettre sous forme comparative des etudes effectu6es pour des pays differents quant 2 leurs ca- racteristiques climatiques, geographiques, economiques et realisees selon des methodologies parfois insufrisarnment ex- plicit6es. En particulier, des comptabilit6s energ6tiques differentes ne peuvent pas toujours Etre traduites "sans ris- quest' dans un systsme comptable homogSne. On passera ici par dessus ces reserves puisque ce sont seulement les ordres de grandeur qui nous importent.

tec/hab : tonne equivalent charbon par habitant.

sentes pour chaque pays. Cette convergence confere une certaine credibilite aux niveaux proposes, credibilite renforcee par le fait qu'ils rejoignent l'ordre de grandeur de la consommation par tGte de 1'Europe des Neuf aujourd'hui (4.28 tec/hab.).

Contrairenent au scenario ZEG (USA) (l), qui conduit 2 une dissociation totale entre l'energie et la croissance energetique, cette stabilisation n'est atteinte que qr3ce 2 un plafonnement (ou une tres faible croissance) du produit materiel net par tGte 2 long terme, une fois epuisees toutes les possibilites d'accroitre 1 ef- ficacite generate des systemes energetiques. On oeut en fait penser que Ie scenario ZEG,qui plafonne 15 tec/hab, qe situe dans un horizon temporel 2 moyen terme oii on joue a plein sur ces possibilites mais que, sur Ie lonq terme,il conduirait certes avec une faible elasticite enerqie/PNB, 2 une reprise de la croissance enerqetique. I1 est fort difficile de juqer des niveaux de developpement atteints puisque la plupart des autres exercices ne font pas reference 2 un taux de croissance economique explicite qui, projet6 sur cinquante ans et recouvrant une restructuration totale des appareils de production et des modes de vie, n'aurait aucune signification. La production materielle (industrielle et agricole) donnant le seul indicateur quelque peu significatif et une base de cornparaison, fait apparaitre une stabilisation de la production materielle (industrielle et agricole par tete) dans une fourchette comprise entre 0.75 et 2 fois Ie niveau de la Fran- ce en 1975. Dans la mesure oii chacun des auteurs introduit des hypotheses differentes sur la durability des biens, cela conduirait 2 un niveau de vie materiel (en termes de valeur d'usaqe) compris entre 1.5 et 3 fois le niveau "France 1975" bien loin, pour reprendre une expression de A. Lovins, d'une civilisation "troglodytique" et qui caracteriserait une soci5t6 stable post- industrielle.

En fait, une fois admise la limitation 2 lonq terme du produit materiel, la stabilisation de la consommation d'enerqie devient immediate, le doublernent de l'efficacitg moyenne des systemes energetiques par rapport aux niveaux europeens actuels n'g- tant certainement Das techniauement irrealiste si on raisonne sur Ie tres lonq terme. L'enerqie n'esten definitive que la matiere premiere des matisres premieres mais l'axe dudeoat doit alors Gtre dgplace. La question decisive devient celle des niveaux du produit materiel, des hypotheses socio-economiques qui la sous-tendent et leur coherence avec un mode de vie "conforta- ble" pour tous. Elle peut Gtre eclairee par une discussion poste par poste des determinants societaux des sentiers energetiques doux .

1 ) Pour ne pas alourdir le texte, nous desiqnerons chaque sc6- nario par une abreviation ou le nom de l'auteur, suivi entre parentheses du siqle du pays etudie. Nous donnerons les refe- rences au fur et a mesure des citations. ZEG ( U S A ) : Zero Energy Growth, A time to choose, op. cit.

2.1. Les besoins domestiques - -.

La stabilisation 2 lonq terme des besoins domestiques d'energie pose, 2 notre sens, moins de problsmes de principe que pour d'autres secteurs, dans la mesure oii on peut mettre en lumisre des fa.cteurs de limitation pour les deux principaux postes qui sont Ie chauffage eau chaude et I'electro-menager :

- la surface des loqements qui determine les besoins de chauffage ne saurait Gtre dsfinie. Les 100 m2 retenus par Alter (FR) (1) pour un menage moyen de trois personnes ou les 120 m2 de Sorensen (DN) (2) correspondent effectivement 2 un espace confor- table pour chapue foyer;

- Ie parc electro-menaqer commence 2 Etre sature dans les pays industrialises. Les 2 200 Kwh/an retenus par Alter permettent d'approvisionner un appareillaqe complet,cuisini~reexclue mais y compris machine 2 laver la vaiselle et congelateur. MEme Ie d6ve- loppement eventuel de la petite informatique individuelle ou la robotisation" accrue des tZches m6nagSres ne paraissent pas sus- ceptible~ de dnpasser de beaucoup l'ordre de grandeur ci-dessus dans la mesure oii ces technologies, fondees sur Ie traitement de l'information, seront faiblement consomnatrices d'energie. De plus, on doit remarquer que toute accroissement de l'utilisation de 1'6lectromenaqer amsne un abaissement des besoins de chauffaqe puisque l'essentiel de 1'6nergie absorbee par chaque appareil est restitue sous forme de chaleur, d'energie "d6qradee1'.

Sur cette base, I'amelioration des rendements dans 1'6lec- tro-menaqer mais surtout la r6duction des besoins en enerqie utile pour le chauffaqe entrainee par une bonne isolation, devraient Errnettre de contenir les besoins autour del/tec/h pour un climat temperg. Les gains obtenus sur ce poste sont bien s6r particu- lisrement impressionnants pour les pays actuellement trSs qaspil- leurs : 65.2 % aux USA (IES- Wisconsin) ( 3 1 , entre 66 et 90 S au Canada (CS et STF) (4).

(1) Groupe de Bellevue : Projet ALTER : Etude d'un avenir enerqetique pour la France axe sur Ie potentiel renouvelable; Es- quisse d'un regime 2 long terme tout solaire.

(2) 'SORENSEN (Bent).- "Energy and Resources", A plan for Denmark according to which solar and wind energy would supply Den- mark's need by the year 2050, Science, vol. 189, no 4199, 25 July 1975.

( 3 ) IES Wisconsin (USA) : John STEINHART, Hark E. HANSON, Care1 C. DE WINKEL, Robin W. GATES, Kathleen BRIDDY, Mark THORNSJO, Stanley J. KABALA, A low energy scenario for the United States 1975-2050, ~nstitute for Environmental Studies, Univeristy --- of Wisconsin Madison, July 1917.

(4) STF Canada : Super Technical Fix. CS Canada : Conserver Society. Scenarios presentes par Amory LOVINS, Exploring Energy Effi- cient Futures for Canada in Carnets dlEparqne, Conseil des Sciences du Canada, vol. 1, n4,maiZju~1976.

La realit6 des gains attendre de solutions techniques comme une meilleure isolation, la regulation thermique, les pompes 2 chaleur, voire de nouvelles conceptions architecturales, ne peuvent serieusement 6tre mis en question. Th6oriquement meme, on peut envisager des coefficients G voisins de zero(1). Mais le choix de la valeur de G depend d'un arbitrage 6conomique entre l'inves- t-issement additionnel exige et la valeur actualisee des economies d'enerqie. Or, rien ne nous est dit sur Ie niveau approximatif des prix de l'energie ou l'anticipation de la hausse qui rendrai- ent realistes le choix des coefficients G retenus. Meme si on admet qu'a l'horizon envisage les prix de l'energie connaltront des relsvements de qrande ampleur, la transition vers une norme moyenne de 1 tec/h/an ne sera reussie que si ces relsvements sont anticipes lors de la construction pour qu'a la fois le construc- teur et l'acheteur soient prEts 2 en payer le prix. Cette anticipation peut etre obtenue 2 travers des mesures purement re- qlementaires.

Plus qeneralement, on peut dire que,dans l'habitat, la stabilisation 2 long terme des besoins paralt possible et souhaitable mais que l'inertie physique du secteur, le developpement de tendances recentes comrne la proliferation des residences secondaires, les comportements des acheteurs et des constructeurs, em- pechent de dire quant et 2 quel niveau reel cette stabilisation se ferait. Alter (FR) et IES Wisconsin (USA) ont le merite d'in- sister sur une utilisation rationnelle du cadre bSti : loqements inhabites dans les centres des qrandes villes amsricaines, limi- tations ou amenagement rationnel des residences secondaires. Mais ceci renvoie a des variables totalement extra-energetiques que nous discuterons 2 nouveau quand nous aborderons Ie secteur transport.

2.2. Le secteur commercial

Sur le plan strictement energgtique, les problsmes du secteur commercial sont tout 2 fait comparables 2 ceux de l'habitat puisque l'essentiel des besoins est constitue de besoins de chauffage, les deux autres postes 6tant les appareillages de manuten- tion et Ie traitement de l'information.

L'ensemble des travaux analyses repose sur une stagnation v-iire meme une forte baisse (CS Canada) de la surface commercia- le. Le principal facteur de limitation des besoins commerciaux est bien entendu celui de la croissance du produit materiel. Mais pour un niveau donne d'activite, les differents auteurs fournis- sent un ensemble de variables permettant de reduire les besoins commerciaux :

- suppression des diversifications superflues des produits (Auckland NZLG) (2)

- augmentation de la durability des biens qui permet de reduire les flux-et les actes cornmerciaux pour une valeur d'usaqe donnee (Sorensen (DN) ) ;

- comrnande individuelle grace 2 un "dispatchinq" video re- I i G 2 un ordinateur qui assure l'approvisionnement 2 moindre coiit.

(1) G : coefficient de deperdition de chaleur (2) "Energy Scenarios for New Zealand" The University ofAu&land,

New Zealand, Energy, Vol. 3 pp 1-14, Pergamon Press, 1 9 7 8 .

- structure du cadre bSti permettant de reduire l'eloiqne- ment lieux de production et lieux d'habitation pour rendre super- flux toute m e partie de la chalne des intermediaires commerciaux I E S Wisconsin USA).

Cette limitation de l'activite du secteur commercial ne pose dtautre problSme de principe que celui du role joue par le pe- tit commerce dans l'animation des cites ou les marches c o m m i u de vie rn1.1ective. Ceci ne doit pas suffire remettre en cause les ordres de grandeurs proposes mais il est important de souli- qner l'impossibilite de raisonner ici en termes purement fonction- nels si on veut augmenter et non reduire les lieux de communication entre les homes.

2.3. Le transport

C'est, en dehors de l'industrie, le grand secteur oii la croissance 6nerq6tique zero pose un probleme de principe et non plus de simple "factabilite". En effet, la justification d'une rupture par rapport aux tendances passees d'accumulation indefinie de biens materiels serait le dgveloppement d'une societe "convi- viale" et done un accroissement des relations des homes entre eux en dehors de toute consideration professionnelle ou comerciale.

Le seul obstacle reel 5 un developpement infini des transports de personnes ne peut Etre peryu qu'2 travers l'analyse des budgets-temps oii Ie temps de transport est retranche du temps libre disponible. Or, chaque fois qu'llssont explicites, les niveaux retenus dans les scenarios doux apparaissent trSs faibles (cf. tableau 3). En effet, la croissance envisagee des deplacements est trompeuse dans la mesure oii elle porte sur des moyennes alors que la demande de transports est aujourd'hui trSs ineqalement repartie. DSs aujourd'hui les deplacements individuels des classes moyennes atteiqnent des niveaux nettement superieurs. La conse- quence est que, dans Alter (FR) par exemple, la quasi-stagnation proposee pour l'avion se traduit en fait par le non accSs de la majeure partie de la population aux transports aeriens.

On retiendra par contre comme objectif le concept de &- mum d'accessibilite propose par IES Wisconsin, a la place de celui de maximum de mobilitg, ce qui permet de poser Ie principe d'une maximisationdes contacts pour une quantite de transport de- terminee. Cela renvoie 2 des transformations extremement lourdes qui portent 5 la fois sur le systsme de transport, la repartition des hommes et des activites sur le territoire et le style d'urba- nisation. Dans Ie cadre des USA, cela implique d'apres IES Wis- consin :

- la stabilisation de la population rurale 5 travers un "National Homestead Lease Act" qui permettrait la location de terrains publics (terres inutilisees et bases militaires aban- donnees) ;

- la depopulation des megalopolis; - la limitation des qrandes villesz 200 000 hab.; - la croissance du nombre des villes de 50 000 2 100 000 hab

Sur cette base, c'est bien sCir une nouvelle q6oqraphie industrielle qui doit Etre'uedessinge pour permettre, a travers une

production trgs d@centralis@e et diversifige 2 l'echelon local, une ninimisation des transports de marchandises.

Tableau 2

Objectifs propos6s pour les besoins de transport en Km/hab/an

- -- - - France 1975 Alter (FR) IES Wisconsin (USA)

- - -- - - - - - Transports intra- urbains (transports en comun, deux roues ... ) 1000 2000

Automobiles 3700 2 700

Transports aeriens 3 70 400 1200

Chemins de fer 850 3000 800

L'arbitrage entre les diffiirents moyens de transport en fonction de la quantit6 d'gnergie par passager/km ou par t/km conduit 3 favoriser Ie transport ferroviaire et les transports flu- viaux, voire meme, en se referant 2 l'exemple de Rotterdam, 2 re- penser le role des deux roues pour les transports intra-urbains de personnes. Si la suppression des transports aeriens sur moyenne distance (500 km environ) paralt facile 2 rgaliser, il n'en est pas de meme pour la transformation du r61e de l'automobile individuelle. Celui-ci depend en effet du cornportement des usagers qui ne se nodifiera que trgs lentement si on compte sur la seule existence de transports collectifs alternatifs. Ne se servir de sa voiture que pour les moyennes distances suppose une reduction de la perception de l'automobile 2 un simple outil sans autre valeur que celle du rapport rapidit@/coiit. Le seul facteur reellement dissuasif serait de faire supporter par l'automobiliste l'integralite des couts de l'automobile pour la collectivit6 en termes de coUts d'encombrement.

On remarquera enfin que la structure de l'habitat joue un role determinant dans Ie recours spontanii au transport collectif ou 2 la voiture individuelle, les premiers etant privilegies dans le cas d'habitats collectifs assez denses. I1 est prouve dans des enquetes qu'au del3 d'un indice d'occupation des sols diipassant 1.5 3 2, il est pratiquement impossible de faire reqresser l'usage de la voiture individuelle.

2.4. La demande industriel*

De facon assez curieuse, les etudes sur les "sentiers doux" ne mettent l'accent que sur la rScup6ration de la vapeur et font peu de place 2 la transformation des procedGs technologiques qui permettraient une reduction massive de l'energie necessaire. A titre d'exemple, on peut citer parmi les principaux dossiers :

la clinkerisation du ciment par micro-ondes ( 2 300Â° au lieu de 1200 " C ) , ferrailles et minerals pre-reduits trait6s 2 l'arc 61ec- trique, laminage continu pour l'acier, production bioloqique par batteries des enqrais azotes . . .

AU del2 des aspects strictement techniques, le contr6le de la demande industrielle r6sulte de deux facteurs :

- la reduction de la dmeande 2 l'industrie par la transformation du riodsle de consommation, la croissance de la durability des biens et Ie recyclaqe;

- un insertion differente dans la division internationale du travail.

2.4.1. La transformation du modgle de consommation est con- sid6ree au niveau le plus aisement quantifiable, celui de l'allongement de la durability des biens. Une approche plus globale, certes aujourd'hui impraticable en termes chiffres, devrait inclure des parametres aussi importants que l'arbitrage temps libre/biens materiels dans l'affectation du surplus et 11am6naqement correla- -- tif de l'espace, le partage consomation privee/collective . . .

L'allongement de la durabilit6 des biens doit pernettre une augmentation correlative des valeurs d'usage pour un quantum donne de produit materiel. Ce facteur est renforce par un recyclage syst6matique des matSriaux de base et la recuperation. Si on reprend l'evaluation de B. Sorensen pour le Danemark, on peut pr6- voir, 2 tr6s long termeune structure industrielle stabilisee avec un secteur recyclage/ri5cuperation representant la moitie de la production.

On doit cependant noter la contradiction possible entre un doublement ou un triplement de la durabilite et Ie maintien d'une souplesse et d'une rsversibilite suffisante des choix de production et de consommation. Deux ecueils sont en effet 2 eviter :

- Ie fait de transformer toute decision en decision lourde 1 ) et done de multiplier les dangers encourus par des choix dont les consequences rSelles ne peuvent Gtre percues que sur le long terme et alors qu'ils sont trss larqement irrsversibles;

- le fait de conduire 2 une soci6t6 non seulement stable quant au volume global de la production materielle mais aussi stationnaire, ne faisant pas place a des innovations en matiere de mode de vie, ce qui suppose une rotation minimale des produits et des techniques.

2.4.2. La structure du commerce exterieur et l'insertion dans la division internationale du travail. L'essentiel de la demande industrielle d'enerqie provient en effet de quelques secteurs (siderurgie, chimie, rnetaux non ferreux) dont le contenu enerqgtique par unit6 de valeur ajoutge est de 4 5 5 fois sup6- rieur 2 la moyenne et qui sont susceptibles d'etre "redeploy6s" dans les pays du Tiers Monde fortement dotes en energie et ma-

(1) Voir la discussion du concept de decision lourde par p. LAGADEC : "L'6tude d'impact : instrurient dtSvaluation des d6- cisions lourdes", Futuribles, no 9, hiver 1977.

tigres premieres et disposant de capacites de financement. Or, s'il est vrai qu'un partaqe industriel plus equilibre 2 1'6chelle mondiale est necessaire, un redeploiement massif dans le sens Nord- Sud qui porterait sur les maillons amont des industries lourdes, maillons generalement les plus intensifs en energie rnais aussi en capital et faiblement rGmun6rateurs, ne correspondrait pas a un d6veloppement 6quilibre du Tiers Monde (1). On notera d'ailleurs que les perspectives de production decentralisee en relative au- tarcie, delib6rement adoptees dans certains scenarios (Alter,(FR), IES-Wisconsin (USA)) supposent le rnaintien d'un tissu industriel complet sur le sol national, ce que ne semble pas voir 1'1ES quand il reprend 2 son compte les perspectives du scenario ZEG de la fondation FORD.

2.5. La place de l16lectricit6 dans la structure des Sner- qies secondaires

Par rapport 3 la these de A. Lovins selon laquelle il est necessaire de reduire la part de 1'6lectricite aux usages strictement specifiques ( 5 2 10 % du total), les resultats de divers scenarios ne manquent pas de surprendre. Les Darts de 11electricit6 dans la structure des energies secondaires est de 30 % pour Alter, 33 % pour Sorensen, 25 % pour IES Wisconsin . . .

Un tel resultat s'explique pour deux raisons : - s'il est vrai qu'il y a une qrande d6perdition entre 1'6-

nerqie thermique fournie par une centrale et 1'6quivalent calori- que des Kwh produits, il faut tenir compte d'un second rend~ment entre 1'6nergie d6livree au consommateur et 1'6nerqie utile. Or re deuxi6merendcment est trSs qenerqlernent 2 l'avantaqe de l'elec- tricite. DGs lors,les raonorts des rendevents enerqie Primaire/ +n-eruie utile entre 1'6lcctricitg d ' u n part et l'utilisation directed'hyclrocarbures d'autre part se resserrent : pour la groduction dechaleur par exemule elles passent de 3 2 1. 6 environ. Si on tient compte de la souplesse d'utilisation de 1'6lectricit6, de la non divisibilit6 parfaite des investissements qui ernpsche une diversi- fication totale des vecteurs, la reduction de 1'6lectricitE par rapport aux perspectives officielles rie saurait etre aussi drasti- que que celle suqqeree par Lovins;

- 1e raisonnernent de Lovins ne "oorte ane sur la thermoelec- A -

tricit6 d'origine fossile. En effet, la notion de rendement crlobal qui n'a pas d'autre usaqe possible

qu12T7aTers une transformation en electricit6 n'a pas de sens reel. Due ce soit pour 11hydro61ectricit6 ou 1'6olienne. il est arbitrai- re de comparer le contenu calorifique des Kwh fournis 2 l'energie mecanique ngcessaire 2 les produire. On sera d'accord avec P. Ramain (2) pour considerer cette electricit6 cornrne de l'enerqie

( 1 ) Nous avons d6veloppe ce point in J.C. HOURCADE : Enerqie et division internationale du travail : essai de prospective des - -- -- - - - - -- -- -- industries lgurdes sur le bassin rnediterrane~, Editions du - CNRS, ATP no 26, avril 1978.

(2) MMAIi'J (Patrice) .- R6flexions critiques sur les bilans Gnerg6.- tiques, op. G.

primaire. Or parmi les energies nouvelles, l'hydraulique, 1'60- lienne et une partie du solaire (pour usages autres que thermiques ou mecanique fixe) ne sont utilisables que par une transformation electrique.

S'il est done clair quedans un scenario energetique doux, 1161ectricit6 ne doit pas devenir Ie vecteur dominant, son niveau reel se stabiliserait bien au dessus de ceux envisages par Lovins pour deux raisons :

- superiorit6 pour les forces motrices fixes et mobiles

- mise en valeur de sources dt5nergies renouvelables autre- ment inexploitables.

On rernarquera enfin que le rnodsle social implique par un sentier doux passe par Ie developpement de t6lecornrnunications, d'electronique, d'appareillaqes fins de regulation et de techniques nouvelles electriques . . . toutes activitss qui entralnent une augmentation des usages specifiques de 1161ectricite.

3. Les problSmes de la transition : quelques obstacles socig- politiques

PlutSt que la discussion pureraent technique sur l'optimisme de tel ou tel coefficient d'economie adopts ou du jugement qu'on peut porter sur tel objectif adopt6 en matiere de node de vie, la priorite nous semble devoir Gtre donnee 2 l'analyse du passage eri- tre la situation actuelle et le regime a long terme. Un certain nombre de travaux donne quelque eclairage sur ce point (Alter, scenario suedois) mais force est de reconnaitre que la remontee de l'image 2 lone; terme vers l'image de depart est rarement effectuee. C'est pourquoi nous presenterons surtout une serie d'interrogations sur des "non dits" qui nous paraissent d6cisifs dss lors qu'on passe aux politiques concretes d'application.

3.1. Les presupposes economiques des sentiers doux : le problsme des contraintes exterieures

Meme s 'il est totalement non pertinent d'utiliser une analyse economique traditionnelle pour raisonner sur le trSs long terme, on ne saurait, comrne le fait A. Lovins, justifier l'absence de tout recours aux prix de l'enerqie. En effet, toute strategic de reduction de la demande d'energie ne peut se justifier que par rapport 2 un niveau donne des prix implicites sauf a perdre toute cri- tSre de coherence. Une isolation totale des bstiments ( G = 0) est theoriquement possible si on admet des coCits d'investissement illi- mites. L'exercice effectus par le CONAES montre par exernple que des niveaux voisins de ceux envisages par A. Lovins pour les USA de- viennent economiquement justifies sur la base d'un quadruplement des prix de l'energie entre 1975 et 2000.

Les deux criteres sous-jacents 2 tous les "sentiers doux" sont :

- un tan? ' . - i r+n i l i <itinn bas significatif d'une meilleure prise en cornpi-e du long terme pour accepter de supporter des sur- coUts d'investissement, que ce soit au niveau des appareils utili- sateurs ou dans la selection de l'offre dt6nergie;

- une hausse tendancielle des prix de 1'6nergie et une ~ o a - tique syst6~atique d'anticipation de cette haussg.

Ces deux critgres doivent permettre d'orienter 1'Economie vers des investissements massifs dans Ie secteur energetique (production et economies dtEnergie) pendant une longue duree. Mais, meme si.2 long terme, les investissements exig6s sont plus faibles que dans Ie cas d'une strategic acceptant le derapage de la demande, Ie risque existe, pour tout pays qui prendrait le premier la decision de relever ses prix interieurs, de qrever la compStivit6 de son Gconomie sur les marches internationaux.

Par rapport 2 cette contradiction, deux types de solutions sont envisageables :

- le premier (Alter (FR) , Auckland (NZ) , IES Wisconsin (USA) ) est la realisation progressive d'une Economie tendant 2 l'a&a~- cie et 06 la n6cessitE d'exporter est reduite au maximum. tine Ceile solution n'est pas 2 exclure a priori mais on peut douter de sa coherence pratique en termes de "systemes industriel complet" dans un espace national en l'etat actuel du developpement actuel et previsible des techniques. I1 conviendrait done de faire l'hy- pothgse d'un modSle technologique permettant de revenir sur les Economies d'echelles, c'est-2-dire de realiser des petites et moyennes industries 2 forte productivitE mais n'exigeant pas des marches importants pour se rentabiliser;

- Ie deuxigme se place dans l'acceptation d'une interdepen- dance entre lea 6conomi~s nationales mai; sumose.2 l'echelle .~- .. -

& L

~~ndiale~l'adoption d'un accord pour anticiper la croissance d z coiits energetiques. Cet.te question decisive est d'autant plus delicate que : . les situations de chaque pays quant aux dotations energstiques sont trSs inegales; . on ne voit pas de raison thEorique d'imposer des prix directeurs mondiaux de l'energie sans imposer de la meme manigre une harmo- nisation de la remuneration des autres facteurs de production 06 il y a de fait mondialisation du march+.

Un sentier herqatique doux n'est probablement pas une stra- t6gie 2 bas profil technologique, au contraire. Elle repose entre autres sur le dSvaloppement des moyens de traitement de l'information et de tel6-information c o m e Ie souligne Ie CONAES. On doit par centre Etre plus prudent quant 2 l'idee d'une substitu- tion automatique entre le capital et Ie travail d'une part 1'6ner- gie d'autre oart et Sviter de reproduire 5 ce niveau l'erreur des courbes d'isoproduction de 1'Economie nOoclassique qui postule l'independance et la substituabilite des facteurs de production. S'il est vrai par exemple que la climatisation, l'augmentation de la durability des biens, Ie recyclage entralneront la croissance d'activites de main d'oeuvre, le dgveloppement des tEl6- communications, la croissance du rail, la stabilisation du secteur commercial vont dans Ie sens inverse. De meme, la nature du progrgs technologique mis en oeuvre ne se traduit pas automa- tiquement par un surcoiit en biens de capitaux.

3.3. Le cadre institutionnel 3 l'echelon nations

C o m e 1'a montr6 l'analyse par poste, les "sentiers Snerg6- tiques doux" ne peuvent s'envisager que dans le cadre de choix soci6taux de grande ampleur : transformation du cadre bSti, structure des transports, localisation des activit6s dans l'espace national, choix industriels, sans compter ce que nous venons d'evo- quer concernant la stratgqie internationale. L'ambiguit6 n'est pas levee dans certains travaux de savoir si "la force contraiqnante du marche" serait suffisante pour enclencher les transformations structurelles ngcessaires. En fait, la majorit6 des auteurs plai- dent pour une politique planifiee en fonction d'objectifs pre- 6tablis qui permette de coordonner 1'6volution de domaines aussi divers. Mais se pose alors la question de la contradiction entre le contenu et le rythme de ces transformations et la participa- tion de la population 2 ces changements. En clair, un certain rythme de transformation n6cessaire pour atteindre les objectifs 6nerg6tiques peut etre contradictoire avec l'idee meme de decen- tralisation, de convivialit6, d'autonomie. I1 est done necessaire de donner une priorit6 2 la reflexion sur l'articulation entre les choix d'Etat, la transformation des modes de vie, et les initiati- ves individuelles ou collectives.

S E L E C C I ~ I ~ L E E N E R G ~ A , SELECCION DE SOCIEDAD: MITOS

Res umen

La proliferation de e s t u d i o s en 10s senderos de l a e n e r q i a suave, es un i n d i c e que en e l domin io c i e n t i f i c o , se n iega accep ta r l a i n e v i t a b i l i d a d de l a energ fa n u c l e a r . Estos e s t u d i o s t i e n e n e l m e r i t 0 de ensanchar e l camDo de opciones para r e s u l t a r en un n i v e l muy b a j o de l uso p e r c a p i t a de energ ia . S i n embargo, a1 p roponer so luc iones "aparentemente t 6 c n i c a s 1 ' desa t ienden e l impact0 t o t a l de e s t a s sobre l a o r g a n i z a c i 6 n de l a soc iedad y desestiman l a o p o s i c i 6 n a cambio que r e s u l t a de l a i n e r c i a s o c i a l .

Este in fo rme, e s c r i t o en oc tub re de 1978, es un resumen de l a s conc lus iones p r i n c i ~ a l e s de i n v e s t i g a c i o n e s l l e v a d a s a cab0 ;or e l a u t o r (en e l CIRED) en c o l a b o r a c i 6 n con L a u r e n t D a r t o i s , Dominique Gourmelon y Nina Kousne tzo f f , y con e l conse jo de Lou is Puiseux. E l i n fo rme se apoya en 10s a n a l i s i s c r i t i c o s de escenar ios e s p e c i f i c o s que se rsn pub l i cados en F u t u r i b l e s . (Para l a l i s t a de es tos escenar ios consu l tese l a l i s t a en l a pagina 2 ) .

BUILDING BLOCKS

THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, THE INTERMATIOIiAL MONETARY SYSTEM AND THE PERIPHERY

by E.A. B r e t t School o f Soc ia l Science U n i v e r s i t y o f Sussex Palmer, B r igh ton , England

O r i g i n a l language: E n g l i s h

A b s t r a c t : The n e o - c l a s s i c a l economic p r e s c r i p t i o n s o f t h e IMF would l e a d t o t h e

con t inued dominance o f t h e p resen t i n d u s t r i a l i z e d wor ld . The T h i r d World coun-

t r i e s , a p a r t f rom a few enclaves, a r e incapab le w i t h i n t h e d e f l a t i o n a r y cond i -

t i o n s c rea ted b y t h e asymmetrical i n t e r v e n t i o n s o f t h e IMF t o e s t a b l i s h a

t h r i v i n g i n d u s t r i a l c a p a c i t y . The Group o f 24 c r i t i q u e o f t h e IMF i s made

w i t h i n t h e same n e o - c l a s s i c a l paradigm and i s , i n e f f e c t , a demand f o r inc reased

c r e d i t s from t h e IMF, i g n o r i n g t h e i n e q u a l i t y i n t h e power s t r u c t u r e which i s

a t t h e r o o t o f t h e s t r u c t u r a l problems o f w o r l d economy. An a l t e r n a t i v e t o IMF

p o l i c i e s i s t o c r e a t e a more autonomous and i n w a r d l y o r i e n t e d system i n T h i r d

World c o u n t r i e s u s i n g l o c a l entrepreneurs and l o c a l c a p i t a l and t h e use o f

a p p r o p r i a t e technology. Th is would mean t h e c r e a t i o n o f an i n s t i t u t i o n p r o v i d i n g

f i n a n c i a l a i d o r i e n t e d towards deve lop ing p r o d u c t i v e c a p a c i t y o f t h e l o c a l

economy and w i t h no i n t e n t i o n o f f i n a n c i n g t h e expor ts o f t h e su rp lus met ropo l -

i t a n economies which had generated t h e funds p rov ided by t h e c r e d i t i n t h e

f i r s t i ns tance .

There a r e i n h e r e n t dangers f o r s o c i a l i s t c o u n t r i e s which r e s o r t t o INS r e -

sources. However, t h e W F and t h e World Bank appear t o be w i l l i n g t o extend

a s s i s t a n c e t o s o c i a l i s t c o u n t r i e s w i t h o u t demanding a corresponding i n c r e a s e

i n p r i v a t i s a t i o n o f ownership and t h e f r e e market . To t h e e x t e n t t h e IMF i s

con f ron ted by a c o u n t r y i n which economic l i f e i s s e c u r e l y under n a t i o n a l

c o n t r o l , t h e r e a r e no s t r o n g p r i v a t e groups i n s i d e t h e c o u n t r y which see a

convergence of t h e i r own i n t e r e s t s w i t h IMF p o l i c y p r e s c r i p t i o n s .

L E F M I , LE SYSTEME MONETAIRE INTERNATIONAL ET L A P E R I P H E R I E

Resume

Les p r e s c r i p t i o n s du Fonds mone ta i re i n t e r n a t i o n a l ( F W ) condu isen t i l a p r d o - minance c o n t i n u e des pays ac tue l lement i n d u s t r i a l i s e s . Les pays du T i e r s ?londe, a l ' e x c e ~ t i o n de quelques enclaves, ne s e r o n t en e f f e t pas en mesure, dans les c o n d i t i o n s d e f l a t i o n n i s t e s r e s u l t a n t des i n t e r v e n t i o n s asyrn6tr iques du FMI, de m e t t r e s u r p i e d une capacit.6 i n d u s t r i e l l e v igoureuse. Les c r i t i q u e s du Groupe des 24 adop ten t 1e meme paradigme neo-c iass ique e t ne c o n s t i t u e n t en f a i t qu 'une demande de c r e d i t s accrus; e l l e s i q n o r e n t I ' i n e g a l i t e , i nco rporee dans l a s t r u c - t u r e du pouvo i r , q u i e s t 3 l a base des problemes s t r u c t u r a u x de l ' economie mon- d i a l e . Une a l t e r n a t i v e aux p o l i t i a u e s du FT'I s e r a i t de c r e e r dans l e T i e r s 'londe un systeme p l u s autonome e t a u t o c e n t r e q u i u t i l i s e r a i t en t rep reneurs e t c a p i t a l locaux, a u s s i b i e n que techniques appropr iees . Cela i m p l i q u e r a i t l a c r e a t i o n d 'une i n s t i t u t i o n f o u r n i s s a n t une a i d e f i n a n c i e r e d e s t i n e s a developper l a capa- c i t e de p r o d u c t i o n de 1 '6conomie l o c a l e , e t non au f inancement des e x p o r t a t i o n s des economies exceden ta i res du c e n t r e , m6me s i e l l e s o n t f o u r n i 1es fonds a l i - mentant l e c r e d i t .

Les pays a o p t i o n s o c i a l i s t e q u i o n t recours au FNl couren t c e r t a i n s dangers; cependant, l e FMI e t l e BIRD semblent d isposes 2 cooperer avec ces pays sans i n s i s t e r s u r l a p r o p r i e t 6 p r i v e e e t l e march6 l i b r e . Dans l a mesure OCI l e F f l l se t r o u v e f a c e 3 un pays d o n t l ' economie o b e i t i l a v o l o n t e n a t i o n a l e , on peu t e v i t e r que des groupes locaux p r i v e s ne f a s s e n t converger l e u r s i n t e r s t s p a r t i - c u l i e r s avec l e s p r e s c r i p t i o n s du FMI.

E L FMI , E L SISTEMA MONETARIO INTERNACIONAL Y L A P E R I F E R I A

Resumen

Las p r e s c r i p c i o n e s econ6micas de l Fondo Mone ta r io International (FMI) r e s u l t a n en l a p r o l o n g a c i 6 n de l a dominaci6n de 10s p a i s e s actualmente i n d u s t r i a l i z a d o s . Los pa ises d e l Te rce r Mundo, con r a r a s excepciones, no podran e s t a b l e c e r capac i - dades i n d u s t r i a l e s v igo rosas d e n t r o de l a s cond ic iones de d e s i n f l a c i 6 n que r e s u l t a n de l a s i n t e r v e n c i o n e s a s i m e t r i c a s de l FMI. La c r i t i c a d e l FMI hecha p o r e l Grupo de 10s 24 se hace d e n t r o de l mismo paradigma neoc lSs ico y no es mas que una demanda de aumento de c r e d i t o s s i n t e n i r cuenta de l a des igua ldad i n h e r e n t e en l a e s t r u c t u r a d e l poder que e s t a en l a base de 10s problemas es- t r u c t u r a l e s de l a economia mund ia l . Una a1 t e r n a t i v a a l a p o l i t i c a de l FMI s e r i a l a c r e a c i b n de un s is tema mas autonomo en 10s p a i s e s de l Te rce r Mundo, au to - cen t rado en e l l o s , usando i m c i a t i v a s y c a p i t a l l o c a l , b i 6 n como t e c n o l o g i a apropiada. Es to s i g n i f i c a r f a l a c r e a c i 6 n de una institution proveedora de ayuda f i n a n c i e r a des t inada a1 d e s a r r o l l o de l a capacidad de p roducc i6n de l a s economias l o c a l e s y no a f i n a n c i a r l a e x p o r t a c i 6 n de 10s excedentes de l a s economias de l Centro, adn cuando sean e l l a s que provean 10s fondos para 10s c r 6 d i t o s .

Hay p e l i g r o s i n h e r e n t e s pa ra p a i s e s s o c i a l i s t a s que r e c u r r a n a1 FMI. S i n embargo, e l FMI y e l Banco Mundia l parecen e s t a r d i spues tos a coopera r con 10s pa ises s o c i a l i s t a s s i n i n s i s t i r sobre l a p rop iedad p r i v a d a y e l l i b r e mercado. En l a medida en que e l FMI se c o n f r o n t a con un p a i s en que l a economia obedece a l a v o l u n t a d n a c i o n a l , es p o s i b l e e v i t a r que grupos p r i v a d o s l o c a l e s hagan c o n v e r g i r sus i n t e r e s e s p r o p i o s con 1as p r e s c r i p c i o n e s de l FMI.

E.A . B r e t t

THE I M F , THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY SYSTEM AND THE PERIPHERY

The c r i s i s o f t h e m id -seven t ies has a f f e c t e d the economies o f t h e p e r i p h e r y , and more s p e c i f i c a l l y those o f the poores t , p a r t i c u l a r l y s e v e r e l y . D e s p i t e some b r i e f improvements i n c e r t a i n commodity p r i c e s , t h e i r ba lance o f payments p o s i t i o n has worsened c o n s i s t e n t l y s i n c e t h e b e g i n n i n g o f the decade l e a d i n g t o a r e d u c t i o n i n i nves tmen t programmes o r . i n t h e w e a l t h i e r areas, t o e s c a l a t i n g l e v e l s o f indebtedness. Indeed, i t can be shown t h a t some p o o r e r c o u n t r i e s have had t o a d j u s t th rough severe c u t s i n the l e v e l s o f consumption o f the p o o r e r s e c t i o n s o f t h e i r p o p u l a t i o n s - f o r example i n S r i Lanka, m o r t a l i t y r a t e s a c t u a l l y i nc reased i n 1974-75. Here t h e necessary ' a d j u s t m e n t s ' have had t o be made i n the most ext reme ' m a l t h u s i a n ' form, and, o f course, i n v o l v e a d i r e c t c o n t r a d i t i o n w i t h any p o s s i b l e commitment t o b a s i c needs.

The op t im ism i m p l i c i t i n t h e p r o j e c t i o n s f o r t h e second development decade and f o r the New I n t e r n a t i o n a l Economic Order has d isappeared. Wi th i n t e r n a t i o n a l demand s t a g n a t i n g , s u r p l u s c a p a c i t y e x i s t s th roughou t t h e w o r l d economy l e a d i n g t o i n t e n s i f i e d c o m p e t i t i o n f o r a1 1 a v a i l a b l e markets and t o growing p r o t e c t i o n - ism, much o f i t d i r e c t e d by the i n d u s t r i a l i z e d w o r l d a g a i n s t t h e i n d u s t r i a l i z e d e x p o r t s o f t h e p e r i p h e r y . The i n s t a b i l i t y now endemic i n the i n t e r n a t i o n a l mone- t a r y svstem, and e s p e c i a l l y the cont inuous d e c l i n e o f t h e d o l l a r , s u b j e c t s the econom'es of t h e p e r i o h e r y t o f u r t h e r u n c o n t r o l l e d f l u c t u a t i o n s i n the v a l u e o f t h e i r t r a d e and o f t h e i r rese rves , and the i n a b i l i t y o f t h e OECD c o u n t r i e s t o r e s o l v e t h e i r own problems suggests t h a t even worse c o n d i t i o n s c o u l d s t i l l emerge. I n these c i rcumstances i t i s u n l i k e l y t h a t t h e r e can be any long- te rm i n c r e a s e i n c o m o d i t y p r i c e s and i t i s much more l i k e l y t h a t they shou ld move s h a r p l y down- wards i f the r e c e s s i o n shou ld con t inue . I t may be p o s s i b l e t o improve t h e p r i c e s o f some commodit ies i n the s h o r t term th rough commodity agreements, b u t these have always been ve ry d i f f i c u l t t o s u s t a i n and can never e n t i r e l y o f f s e t the d e f l a t i o n a r y e f f e c t s o f a d e c l i n e i n i n t e r n a t i o n a l demand as t h e s i g n i f i c a n t d e c l i n e i n t h e r e a l va lue o f o i l o v e r t h e l a s t t h r e e years demonstrates.

Over the p a s t f i v e years t h e heavy i n t e r n a t i o n a l bo r row ing by t h e p e r i p h e r y has e x e r t e d a c o u n t e r - c y c l i c a l e f f e c t on t h e w o r l d economy by s u s t a i n i n g i t s impor ts and the reby t h e l e v e l o f economic a c t i v i t y i n t h e m e t r o p o l i t a n economies. B u t these loans w i l l have t o be r e p a i d th rough a growth i n e x p o r t s f rom, o r a decrease i n i m p o r t s t o t h e p e r i p h e r y , the reby f u r t h e r t h r e a t e n i n g t h e i n t e r n - a t i o n a l r e v i v a l . I f t h e y cannot be r e p a i d because o f t h e f a i l u r e o f p a r t i c u l a r c o u n t r i e s t o meet t h e s t r i n g e n t economic and p o l i t i c a l requi rements o f t h e p r e s e n t s i t u a t i o n , then the v i a b i l i t y o f t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l bank ing system - i n c r e a s i n g l y over-exposed through i t s l e n d i n g t o p o t e n t i a l l y u n s t a b l e p e r i p h e r a l economies - w i l l be s e r i o u s l y th rea tened and w i t h i t t h a t o f much o f t h e r e s t o f the contemporary i n t e r n a t i o n a l economic o r d e r .

Fo r t h e p e r i p h e r y the c r i s i s i n c r e a s i n g l y man i fes ted i t s e l f t h rough i t s r e l a t i o n - s h i p t o the i n t e r n a t i o n a l monetary system. Much o f t h i s problem r e l a t e s t o the genera l i n a b i l i t y o f t h e system c r e a t e d a t B r e t t o n Woods t o pe r fo rm adequate ly i n a c o n t e x t where the fo rmer hegemony o f t h e US economy has been undermined b u t n o t r e p l a c e d by any e q u i v a l e n t economic b l o c capable o f e x e r t i n g t h e expansionary

i n f l u e n c e o n i n t e r n a t i o n a l p r o d u c t i o n wh i ch stemmed f rom Amer ica i n t h e f i f t i e s and s i x t i e s . I n t h e p r e s e n t c o n t e x t t h e r e l a t i v e weakness o f t h e Amer i can economy m a n i f e s t s i t s e l f i n t h e g r o w i n g d o l l a r d e f i c i t and i n an i n f l a t i o n a r y p r e s s u r e on t h e who le o f t h e w o r l d economy; t h e most r e c e n t i n c r e a s e i n t h e p r i c e o f o i l can o n l y worsen t h e s i t u a t i o n , d e s p i t e t h e f a c t t h a t i t does n o t even f u l l y compensate t h e OPEC c o u n t r i e s f o r t h e r e c e n t d e c l i n e i n i t s r e a l v a l u e . I n t h i s c o n t e x t t h e e s c a l a t i o n i n t h e p e r i p h e r y ' s b a l a n c e o f payments d e f i c i t - now e x p e c t e d t o reach $ 3 2 b i l l i o n i n 1978 - has drawn more and more c o u n t r i e s i n t o wha t amounts t o b a n k r u p t c y and f o r c e d them t o go t o IHF f o r a s s i s t a n c e . The IMF, i n t u r n , has p r o v i d e d them w i t h l i m i t e d amounts o f f i n a n c i a l a s s i s t a n c e , b u t w i t h a g r e a t d e a l o f economic a d v i c e , b o t h o f t h e s e on t h e b a s i s o f t h e r e s o u r c e s and t h e i n t e l l e c t u a l c a p i t a l deve loped d u r i n g t h e decades o f p r o s p e r i t y when a ' f undamen ta l d e s i q u i l i b r i u m ' was r e g a r d e d as an e x c e p t i o n a l phenomenon, and when i t was assumed t h a t i t w o u l d a lways be p o s s i b l e t o b r i n g a c o u n t r y i n t o a c o n d i t i o n o f e q u i l i b r i u m t h r o u g h t h e i n t r o - d u c t i o n of a p p r o p r i a t e p o l i c i e s w h i c h w o u l d have a l i m i t e d o r n e g l i g i b l e e f f e c t o n g r o w t h .

It no l o n g e r seems p o s s i b l e t o a c c e p t t h e s e o p t i m i s t i c assump t i ons , n o r t h e i m p l i c a t i o n s o f t h e p o l i c i e s t o wh i ch t h e y gave r i s e , s i n c e c u r r e n t c o n d i t - i o n s make i t d i f f i c u l t t o e n v i s a g e a r e l a t i v e l y p a i n l e s s r e t u r n t o e q u i l i b r i u m w i t h o u t a s i g n i f i c a n t r e d u c t i o n i n g row th r a t e s . Even t h e new ly i n d u s t r i a l i z e d p e r i p h e r a l c o u n t r i e s l i k e Ta iwan and Sou th Korea a r e o n l y l i k e l y t o be a b l e t o expand s i g n i f i c a n t l y i n t h i s c o n t e x t by i n v a d i n g e x t e r n a l m a r k e t s , t h r e a t e n i n g e s t a b l i s h e d p r o d u c e r s , and g e n e r a t i n g f u r t h e r n r e s s u r e s t owards p r o t e c t i o n i s m . I n s t e a d , i t now seems l i k e l y t h a t t h e o v e r a l l e f f e c t o f IMF i n t e r v e n t i o n s must b e t o worsen t h e s i t u a t i o n f o r b o t h t h e i n d i v i d u a l c o u n t r i e s a f f e c t e d and f o r t h e sys tem as a who le . I n t h e s e c i r c u m s t a n c e s i t i s e s s e n t i a l t h a t t h e whole t h e o r e t i c a l b a s i s o f t h e o p e r a t i o n o f t h e sys tem be r e - e v a l u a t e d t o p r o v i d e us w i t h some means o f d e c i d i n g whe the r i t i s e s s e n t i a l t h a t t h e p e r i p h e r y c o n t i n u e a l o n g i t s p r e s e n t p a t h , a t w h a t e v e r c o s t i n l o s t g r o w t h and i n c r e a s e d i n e q u a l i t y , o r w h e t h e r some r e a l a l t e r n a t i v e does e x i s t f o r i t w i t h i n t h e h a r s h c o n d i t i o n s o f t h e con tempora ry c r i s i s .

T h i s p a p e r c o n s t i t u t e s a b r i e f and s c h e m a t i c a t t e m p t t o dea l w i t h t h e s e p rob lems G iven t h e i n f l u e n c e e x e r t e d b y t h e I M F ' s c o n c e p t i o n o f t h e p r o b l e m a t p r e s e n t , and t h e i m p o r t a n c e o f i t s i n t e r v e n t i o n s f o r t h e o v e r a l l s t a b i l i t y o f t h e sys tem, i t w i l l be necessa ry t o b e g i n w i t h a c r i t i q u e o f wha t i t i s now d o i n g and t h e n o f t h e r e f o r m s wh i ch i t i s now c o n s i d e r i n g . I t w i l l t h e n be p o s s i b l e t o l o o k a t t h e ' s t r u c t u r a l ' a d j u s t m e n t s w h i c h , i n o u r v i e w , a r e e s s e n t i a l i f t h e p e r - i p h e r y i s t o escape f r o m a s i t u a t i o n o f i n c r e a s i n g dependence i n t o one o f c o n t r o l l e d and autonomous g r o w t h .

I. IMF I n t e r v e n t i o n s : The Burden o f A d j u s t m e c

Any p e r i p h e r a l c o u n t r y c o n f r o n t s a p o t e n t i a l c r i s i s when i t s b a l a n c e o f payments d e f i c i t has drawn down i t s r e s e r v e s t o t h e p o i n t where i t can no l o n g e r be c e r t a i n of i t s a b i l i t y t o s u s t a i n i t s e s s e n t i a l i m p o r t s and e s p e c i a l l y t h o s e r e q u i r e d t o keep i t s p r o d u c t i v e c a p i t a l i n o p e r a t i o n . A t t h i s p o i n t i t i s f o r c e d t o l o o k t o e x t e r n a l sou rces f o r c r e d i t and t h i s n o r m a l l y i n v o l v e s them i n coming t o t h e IMF f o r a s m a l l l o a n and a p o l i c y package b e f o r e b e i n g c l e a r e d f o r much more s u b s t a n t i a l a s s i s t a n c e f r o m t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l b a n k i n g sys tem o p e r a t i n g

the Euro -cu r rency market . The ' c o n d i t i o n a l i t y ' imposed on t h e borrowers by the Fund t h e r e f o r e serves as t h e guarantee o f i t s l ong- te rm c r e d i t w o r t h i n e s s and t h e r e f o r e o f i t s a b i l i t y t o c o n t i n u e t o t r a d e i n t e r n a t i o n a l l y . The fundamental o b j e c t i v e o f the e x e r c i s e i s t o b r i n g t h e balance o f payments back i n t o s u r p l u s i n t h e s h o r t term, the reby guaran tee ing t h e g e n e r a t i o n o f t h e f o r e i g n exchange r e q u i r e d t o repay the debts acqu i red d u r i n g the ' a d j u s t m e n t ' process. What we have t o cons ide r , t h e r e f o r e , a r e t h e i m p l i c a t i o n s o f t h i s process f o r t h e p e r i p h e r y i n the c u r r e n t s i t u a t i o n where balance o f payments d e f i c i t s a r e e s c a l a t i n g and the gap between t h e i n d u s t r i a l and t h e p e r i p h e r a l economies i s c o n s t a n t l y w iden ing .

Access t o the h i g h e r c r e d i t t ranches i n the IMF i s o n l y ob ta ined a t t h e c o s t o f t h e e f f e c t i v e e l i m i n a t i o n o f t h e economic independence o f the bo r row ing c o u n t r y . Th is i s as t r u e f o r an i n d u s t r i a l i z e d c o u n t r y l i k e B r i t a i n as i t i s f o r a p e r i p h e r a l c o u n t r y l i k e M a u r i t i u s ; i n bo th cases i n t e r n a l l y determined economic p r i o r i t i e s must g i v e way t o those e s t a b l i s h e d by the need t o b r i n g t h e balance o f payments i n t o e q u i l i b r i u m and t o repay i n t e r n a t i o n a l c r e d i t when i t f a l l s due. When t h e IMF was e s t a b l i s h e d i t s founders , and e s p e c i a l l y t h e USA, t hen a s t r o n g c r e d i t o r c o u n t r y i n t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l system, saw i t as an e s s e n t i a l l y monetary i n s t i t u t i o n w i t h q u i t e d i f f e r e n t o b j e c t i v e s than those o f the World Bank which was e s t a b l i s h e d a longs ide t o deal w i t h development problems. I t i s , i n f a c t , ex t reme ly d i f f i c u l t t o make a v i a b l e t h e o r e t i c a l d i s t i n c t i o n between monetary and development q u e s t i o n s , s i n c e t h e v i a b i l i t y o f any n a t i o n a l '

monetary system depends so d i r e c t l y upon t h e development o f p r o d u c t i v e c a p a c i t y , and i n t h e p e r i p h e r y , e s p e c i a l l y on e x p o r t p r o d u c t i o n . Bu t t h e d i s t i n c t i o n has i n f a c t made a s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e t o t h e way i n which t h e Fund has had t o opera te , s i n c e i t has fo rced them t o p l a c e t h e ma jo r emphasis on measures which w i l l produce an immediate impact upon t h e balance o f payments i n t h e i r p o l i c y recommendations. Given t h a t e x p o r t p r o d u c t i o n must i n e v i t a b l y respond more s l o w l y than i m p o r t consumption t o p o l i c y changes, t h e n e c e s s i t y f o r r a p i d r e s u l t s f o r c e s the o r g a n i z a t i o n t o emphasise t h e l a t t e r a t t h e expense o f t h e fo rmer . F u r t h e r , i t s own i n a b i l i t y t o l e n d f o r p r o d u c t i v e inves tmen t o v e r the l o n g term- as Keynes o r i g i n a l l y recommended when the Fund was s e t up - makes i t imposs ib le f o r an I M F m i s s i o n t o produce a package which w i l l make i t p o s s i b l e f o r an economy t o ' g r o w ' i t s way o u t o f the c r i s i s by i n c r e a s i n g e x p o r t s r a t h e r than c o n t r a c t i n g by reduc ing i m p o r t s . Th is fundamental b i a s i n i t s o r g a n i z a t i o n a l s t r u c t u r e means t h a t i t s i n t e r v e n t i o n s i m p a r t a n e c e s s a r i l y d e f l a t i o n a r y p ressure on t h e o p e r a t i o n o f t h e l o c a l economy each t ime they i n t e r v e n e . When t h e i r i n t e r v e n t i o n s become genera l - as i s now coming t o be t h e case - they a re l i k e l y t o i m p a r t an e q u a l l y d e f l a t i o n a r y p ressure on t h e system as a whole.

Th is tendency becomes even more e v i d e n t when we c o n s i d e r t h e c o n t e n t o f a t y p i c a l IMF package designed t o j u s t i f y a s tand-by c r e d i t . Because o f i t s s e n s i t i v i t y t o t h e g row ing p o l i t i c a l h o s t i l i t y which i t s presence genera tes , t h e Fund w i l l g e n e r a l l y a t tempt t o i n f l u e n c e o v e r a l l economic aggregates r a t h e r than t h e a l l o c a t i o n o f resources t o s p e c i f i c a c t i v i t i e s o r s e c t o r s . Here i t w i l l i n s i s t on a c r e d i t squeeze, a r e d u c t i o n i n s t a t e spending and e s p e c i a l l y on s u b s i d i e s which ' d i s t o r t ' t h e marke t p r i c i n g o f consumer goods, some fo rm o f wage p o l i c y , and, i n a11 p r o b a b i l i t y , a d e v a l u a t i o n o f the cu r rency . These changes a r e i n t e n d e d t o reduce the consumption o f impor ts which a r e though t t o v a r y d i r e c t l y w i t h changes i n these v a r i a b l e s ; t h e r e w i l l a l s o be some a t t e m p t t o d i v e r t p r o d u c t i v e resources f r o m i m p o r t t o e x p o r t p r o d u c t i o n and f rom l e s s t o more

e f f i c i e n t economic u n i t s . Changes here would i n c l u d e t h e e l i m i n a t i o n o f t a r i f f o r exchange-rate r e g u l a t i o n s i n v o l v i n g s u b s t a n t i a l s u b s i d i e s t o i m p o r t s u b s t i t u t i o n as a g a i n s t e x p o r t promot ion, a g r e a t e r emphasis on the market than the s t a t e i n a l l o c a t i n g resources o v e r a l l , and t h e acceptance o f the need f o r a d d i t i o n a l inducements f o r p r i v a t e f o r e i g n investment and f o r h i g h e r p r o f i t s f o r the p r i v a t e s e c t o r as a whole. The assumption i s t h a t the ' d i s c i p l i n e ' i n v o l v e d i n the r e d u c t i o n i n consumption w i l l have an immediate e f f e c t o n the balance o f payments, and t h a t the inc reased e f f i c i e n c y o f the economy engendered by inc reased c o m p e t i t i o n and h i g h e r p r o f i t s w i l l genera te a long- te rm e x p o r t - l e d r e t u r n t o ' n o r m a l ' c o n d i t i o n s o f growth.

I t i s n o t d i f f i c u l t t o demonstrate t h a t these p o l i c i e s must have n e g a t i v e i m p l i c a t i o n s f o r t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f income and f o r growth i n t h e s h o r t term. I t can a l s o be argued - ve ry f o r c i b l y , f o r example, by Peyer r e c e n t l y * - t h a t i t w i l l a l s o have t h e e f f e c t o f undermin ing ind igenous i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n and r e s t o r e t h e neo-co lon ia l t r a d e p a t t e r n based on the exchange o f raw m a t e r i a l s f o r manufactured p r o d u c t s . I n t h e i r own defence Fund o f f i c i a l s argue t h a t w i t h o u t t h e access t o c r e d i t generated by t h e i r e f f o r t s the d e f l a t i o n a r y tendency would be even more i n t e n s e s i n c e no c o u n t r y can a f f o r d t o l i v e beyond i t s i n t e r n a t i o n a l means over the l o n g term. There i s no doubt some t r u t h i n t h i s a s s e r t i o n , a l though i t cannot se rve t o d i s t r a c t a t t e n t i o n f rom the p o s s i b i l i t y o f c r e a t i n g a system i n which l e s s p ressure came t o be e x e r t e d a g a i n s t t h e d e f i c i t c o u n t r i e s and more a g a i n s t those i n s u r p l u s . What we have t o cons ide r i n t h i s c o n t e x t i s the l i k e l y o v e r a l l e f f e c t o f these i n t e r v e n t i o n s , and o f t h e p o s s i b l e a l t e r n a t i v e s which c o u l d be dev ised w i t h o u t go ing o u t s i d e t h e e s s e n t i a l l y l i b e r a l paradigm b e i n g advanced by the l e a d i n g i n t e r n a t i o n a l agencies and the dominant tendency i n c u r r e n t i n t e r n a t i o n a l economic t h e o r y .

However r a t i o n a l and inescapable IMF p r e s c r i p t i o n s m i g h t seem when looked a t i n the c o n t e x t o f t h e problem f a c i n g p a r t i c u l a r c o u n t r i e s - and more e s p e c i a l l y those l i k e Z a i r e o r A rgen t ina which have s u f f e r e d f rom gross mismanagement - they become much l e s s so when looked a t i n the c o n t e x t o f the o p e r a t i o n o f t h e i n t e r n - a t i o n a l economic system as a whole. A t p r e s e n t ba lance o f payment d e f i c i t s a r e n o t e x c e p t i o n a l b u t , t o use IMF te rm ino logy , ' f undamenta l ' f o r t h e b u l k of t h e p e r i p h e r y and, so f a r as we can see, f o r the USA as w e l l . E q u a l l y t h e su rp luses o f Germany and Japan i n p a r t i c u l a r appear t o be e q u a l l y ' f u n d a m e n t a l ' . Neo- c l a s s i c a l t h e o r y assumes t h a t an e f f e c t i v e p o l i c y package must have t h e l o n g - t e r m e f f e c t o f r e v e r s i n g these tendenc ies . Thus, the IMF 's i m p o s i t i o n o f d e f l a t i o n on d e f i c i t c o u n t r i e s i s accompanied by s t r o n g a d v i c e (and t h i s i s a l l t h a t i t s s t r u c t u r e a l l o w s i t t o o f f e r , g i v e n t h a t t h e Scarce Currency c lause i n t h e A r t i c l e s o f Agreement has never been used) t o t h e s u r p l u s c o u n t r i e s t o r e f l a t e t h e i r economies and, the reby , reduce t h e i r p r o p e n s i t y t o e x p o r t . Here we can i d e n t i f y t h e f i r s t problem i n the s t r u c t u r e . The p ressure on t h e d e f i c i t coun- t r i e s t o d e f l a t e i s overwhelming, t h a t on t h e s u r p l u s c o u n t r i e s t o r e f l a t e i s marg ina l and s t r o n g l y o f f s e t by t h e i r own d e s i r e t o a v o i d t h e i n f l a t i o n a r y e f f e c t s which a r a p i d inc rease i n government o r p r i v a t e spending would c e r t a i n l y genera te i n c u r r e n t c o n d i t i o n s . But we can a l s o i d e n t i f y a second problem i n t h e same c o n t e x t , perhaps more s i g n i f i c a n t than t h e f i r s t and much l e s s common- l y d iscussed. A t p r e s e n t t h e OECD economies, w i t h t h e e x c e p t i o n o f t h e USA

* See C. Peyer, The Debt Trap, (Harmondsworth, Penguin, 1974)

a r e o p e r a t i n g a t a n y t h i n g f rom 9, t o 20'. below t h e i r e x i s t i n g p r o d u c t i v e c a p a c i t y . Should the s u r p l u s c o u n t r i e s r e f l a t e t h e r e i s l i t t l e doubt t h a t the b u l k o f t h e new demand would be absorbed through an inc rease i n t h e o u t p u t o f domest ic c a p a c i t y r a t h e r than through impor ts . Th is would, o f course, a l s o induce some r e a l i nc rease i n t h e i r impor ts - e s p e c i a l l y o f raw m a t e r i a l s g i v e n t h e poor resource endowments o f Germany and Japan - b u t t h i s tendency t o improve economic a c t i v i t y i n d e f i c i t c o u n t r i e s would t e n d t o be o f f s e t i n the l o n g e r term by the e f f e c t s on u n i t cos ts o f the expansion i n t h e s c a l e o f a c t i v i t y o f the German and Japanese p roducers . Th is would f u r t h e r reduce these cos ts r e l a t i v e t o those o f t h e i r compet i to rs i n the more depressed reg ions o f the w o r l d economy w i t h a corresponding inc rease i n t h e i r compet i t i veness . A t p r e s e n t t h e o n l y defence l e f t t o t h e weaker reg ions faced w i t h the r i s i n g t i d e o f German and Japanese e x p o r t s i s a d e p r e c i a t i o n o f t h e i r cu r rency , b u t t h i s i s coming t o have l e s s and l e s s e f f e c t g i v e n t h e fundamental d i f f e r e n c e i n the p r o d u c t i v e power o f t h e s t r o n g as a g a i n s t the weak c a r t s o f t h e system.Given these tendencies, i t can be seen t h a t the d e f l a t i o n a r y s i d e o f I M P ' S package i s l i k e l y t o s imp ly weaken demand f o r l o c a l i n d u s t r y i n t h e l o c a l marke t , the reby i n c r e a s i n g i t s u n i t c o s t s , w h i l e doTng n o t h i n g t o stem the a b i l i t y o f the s t r o n g i n d u s t r i e s i n t h e m e t r o p o l i t a n c o u n t r i e s t o c o n t i n u e t o expand t h e i r e x p o r t s and w i t h them t h e s u r p l u s e s o f t h e c o u n t r i e s w i t h i n which they a r e l o c a t e d .

I f we now t u r n t o the e f f e c t o f the p o l i c i e s des igned t o i n c r e a s e the c o m p e t i t i v c - ness o f t h e i r e x p o r t i n d u s t r i e s we can see t h a t these, too, a r e l i k e l y t o be h i g h l y c o n t r a d i c t o r y . The Fund r e l i e s h e a v i l y i n t h i s r e g a r d upon t h e body o f e s s e n t i a l l y n e o - c l a s s i c a l development t h e o r y developed i n t h e l a t e s i x t i e s as a c r i t i q u e o f t h e then predominant ' i m p o r t - s u b s t i t u t i o n ' school developed by w r i t e r s l i k e P r e b i s h and Balogh. The new t h e o r y suppor ts freedom o f t r a d e , marke t and n o t s t a t e r e g u l a t i o n , ' f i n a n c i a l l i b e r a l i s a t i o n ' , and e q u a l i t y o f t r e a t m e n t f o r e x p o r t and i m p o r t - s u b s t i t u t i n g a c t i v i t i e s as t h e b a s i s f o r an e f f i c i e n t , c o m p e t i t i v e and non-co r rup t e c o n o , ~ j c o r d e r . I t s o r e s e n t s t r e n g t h depends v e r y h e a v i l y upon t h e success o f the sma l l As ian economies l i k e Taiwan and South Korea which have p r a c t i c e d these p o l i c i e s and which have s u s t a i n e d r a p i d r a t e s o f growth based upon i n c r e a s i n g manufactured e x p o r t s , h i g h r a t e s of l a b o u r ab- s o r p t i o n , and r e l a t i v e l y f a v o u r a b l e p a t t e r n s o f income d i s t r i b u t i o n . * I t i s n o t p o s s i b l e he re t o q u e s t i o n t h e long- te rm v i a b i l i t y o f t h i s s t r a t e g y f o r these p a r t i c u l a r c o u n t r i e s ; what we must do, however, i s t o c o n s i d e r whether i t c o u l d b e a p p l i e d s u c c e s s f u l l y t o t h e whole o f t h e p e r i p h e r y w i t h equa l success. Here we must c o n s i d e r two s e t s o f problems - t h e f i r s t r e l a t i n g t o the g e n e r a t i o n of markets f o r a r a p i d g rowth i n i n d u s t r i a l o u t p u t i n t h e p e r i p h e r y , the second t o t h e n a t u r e o f t h e t e c h n o l o g i c a l change which would be i n v o l v e d i n t h i s process and i t s impac t upon t h e s o c i a l and economic s t r u c t u r e o f t h e s o c i e t i e s which genera ted i t .

The expansion o f the sma l l As ian c e n t r e s has been based on favourab le r e l a t i o n s w i t h m e t r o p o l i t a n c e n t r e s - n o t a b l y t h e US and the UK - m a i n l y generated by

* F o r an e x c e l l e n t summary see I.M.D. L i t t l e , " I m p o r t c o n t r o l s and and e x p o r t s i n deve lop ing c o u n t r i e s " , F inance and Development ( 1 5 ( 3 ) , 1978)

s t r a t e g i c c o n s i d e r a t i o n s r e l a t e d t o t h e conta inment o f Communism i n the r e g i o n . Th is has p r o v i d e d f o r e i g n and l o c a l c a p i t a l i s t s w i t h f a v o u r a b l e marke t oppor t - u n i t i e s which they were q u i c k t o e x p l o i t and on t h e b a s i s o f which they have now e s t a b l i s h e d a power fu l h o l d on the western markets f o r i n d u s t r i a l goods which have been opened t o the p e r i p h e r y , and on t h e markets which do e x i s t i n a wide range o f o t h e r p e r i p h e r a l c o u n t r i e s . The p o s s i b i l i t y o f a s u b s t a n t i a l number o f o t h e r p e r i p h e r a l c o u n t r i e s - and e s p e c i a l l y the v e r y l a r g e ones l i k e I n d i a o r P a k i s t a n - f o l l o w i n g t h i s r o u t e , however, a r e ve ry remote s i n c e i t i s imposs ib le t o conceive o f t h e i r b e i n g a l l owed t o genera te a p r o p o r t i o n a l i n c r e a s e i n i nves tmen t through i n d u s t r i a l e x p o r t s t o t h e m e t r o p o l i t a n c o u n t r i e s where t h i s would immed ia te l y , generate s t r o n g p r o t e c t i o n i s t i c r e t a l i a t i o n .

Secondly, l i b e r a l t h e o r y presupposes t h a t the new inves tmen t shou ld be based s i m p l y on marke t c r i t e r i a , and t h a t the b u l k o f i t would come f rom f o r e i g n m u l t i n a t i o n a l s . Whi le the As ian exper ience occur red d u r i n g c o n d i t i o n s o f buoyant demand and b e f o r e the most r e c e n t developments i n p r o d u c t i v e t e c h n o l - ogy, any new growth must occur i n c o n d i t i o n s o f depressed demand where c a p i t a l i n t e n s i v e techno logy can g i v e a d e c i s i v e c o m p e t i t i v e advantage t o t h e manufact - u r e r i n a p o s i t i o n t o use i t .* T h i s must have s e r i o u s s t r u c t u r a l consequences f o r any economy which a t tempts t o a l l o w t h i s process t o opera te i n an u n c o n t r o l l e d way. F i r s t l y , t he growth i n c a p i t a l i n t e n s i v e p r o d u c t i o n must worsen t h e a1- ready c r i t i c a l employment problem and i n t e n s i f y the i n e q u a l i t i e s wh ich e x i s t between those employed i n t h i s s e c t o r and those f o r c e d t o work i n t h e i n c r e a s - i n g l y m a r g i n a l i z e d ' i n f o r m a l ' s e c t o r . Secondly, the inc reased o u t p u t o f the r e l a t i v e l y cheap c a p i t a l i n t e n s i v e s e c t o r w i l l f u r t h e r reduce t h e markets f o r the i n f o r m a l s e c t o r and hence i t s c a p a c i t y f o r s e l f - s u s t a i n e d growth. T h i r d l y , t h e preponderance o f f o r e i g n c a p i t a l i n t h i s process w i l l generate s u b s t a n t i a l o u t f l o w s o f c a p i t a l and genera te an i n c r e a s i n g demand f o r impor ted i n p u t s and consumer goods. Th is tendency w i l l be g r e a t l y i n t e n s i f i e d i f e x i s t i n g l e v e l s o f monetary and t a r i f f p r o t e c t i o n a r e reduced as t h e new t h e o r i s t s s t r o n g l y recommend. F o u r t h l y , t h e process w i l l generate i n c r e a s i n g c o m p e t i t i o n between c o u n t r i e s i n t h e p r o v i s i o n o f ' i n c e n t i v e s ' t o f o r e i g n c a p i t a l and i n the a t t e m p t t o p e n e t r a t e each o t h e r ' s markets . Th is w i l l s i m u l t a n e o u s l y i nc rease the amount o f s u r p l u s which f o r e i g n c a p i t a l w i l l be a b l e t o e x t r a c t and i n t e n s i f y t h e a l r e a d y s e r i o u s h o s t i l i t i e s e x i s t i n g between many p e r i p h e r a l c o u n t r i e s .

Th is s t r a t e g y c o u l d , i n f a c t , be s u c c e s s f u l l y p r a c t i c e d by a few c o u n t r i e s o r more l i k e l y , by a few favoured reg ions w i t h i n them. Bu t i t c o u l d n o t be g e n e r a l i s e d t o t h e mass o f the w o r l d ' s p o p u l a t i o n , p r e c i s e l y because t h e success o f these reg ions would be based upon t h e i r a b i l i t y t o s u b o r d i n a t e t h e markets o f t h e r e s t t o t h e domina t ion o f t h e i r more advanced p r o d u c t i v e c a p a c i t y . Th is has been t h e process th rough which t h e g l o b a l dominance o f the i n d u s t r i a l i z e d w o r l d has been genera ted and s u s t a i n e d o v e r two c e n t u r i e s , a11 t h a t the p e r i p h e r y can expec t by f o l l o w i n g t h e n e o - c l a s s i c a l p r e s c r i p t i o n i s t h a t a few enclaves w i t h i n t h e i r m i d s t w i l l be a b l e t o have t h e dubious p r i v i l e g e o f s h a r i n g i n t h e advantages which t h e i r dominance has secured t o them. For t h e r e s t i t must be more a u s t e r i t y , fewer s o c i a l s e r v i c e s , l e s s f a v o u r a b l e employment o p p o r t u n i t i e s and g r e a t e r i n e q u a l i t i e s f o r as f a r ahead as anyone can hope t o p r e d i c t . Th is i s what t h e

* Documented i n Cons tan t ine Va i t sos , Employment p r o b l e m and t r a n s n a t i o n a l e n t e r p r i s e s i n deve lop ing c o u n t r i e s , (Ceneva: ILO, 1976) -

IMF i s a l r e a d y imposing upon many c o u n t r i e s - what we have now t o ask i s whether t h e i r own r e c e n t d i scuss ions have produced any se r ious a l t e r n a t i v e t o t h e s h o r t - te rm p o l i c i e s t h a t t h e y have had t o e n f o r c e up t o now.

The Proposals o f the Grouo o f 2 4 : A C r i t i q u e 2. - - The Group o f 24 r e p r e s e n t i n g t h e Group o f 7 7 - the T h i r d World - has been somewhat a c t i v e these l a s t few years i n f o r m u l a t i n g t h e i r own p roposa ls f o r t h e i n t e r n - a t i o n a l monetary system. The G-24 summarised i t s views a t t h e l a s t Annual Mee t ing and i t seems l i k e l y t h a t these rep resen ted t h e most s i g n i f i c a n t a l t e r n a t i v e t o the p r e s e n t system now be ing d iscussed. They t h e r e f o r e m e r i t c a r e f u l cons ide ra - t i o n , hav ing been summarised i n t h e IMF Survey o f t h e 2nd October 1978.

The communique makes c l e a r t h e i r concern w i t h the p resen t s i t u a t i o n and w i t h t h e inadequacy o f the measures be ing taken t o ease i t . T h e i r own views f a l l i n t o t h r e e c a t e g o r i e s - those r e l a t i n g t o t h e i m p l i c a t i o n s o f the p r e s e n t ad jus tmen t process, those concerned w i t h p o s s i b l e i nc reases i n f i n a n c i a l f l o w s , and those r e l a t e d t o commodity p r i c e s . The second o f these i s by f a r the most i m p o r t a n t and w i l l be g i v e n most a t t e n t i o n he re .

The G-24 recogn ises t h e 'asymmetry ' i n the i n t e r n a t i o n a l ad jus tmen t process which p laces v i r t u a l l y t h e whole burden upon t h e non-reserve cu r rency d e f i c i t c o u n t r i e s and leads t o a s i t u a t i o n which leaves t h e problem o f ' a b s o l u t e p o v e r t y ' untouched. B u t they t o t a l l y i g n o r e the e x t e n t t o which t h e 'asymmetry ' i n u n d e r l y i n g economic power which has generated t h i s problem i s t h e d i r e c t outcome o f t h e oper - a t i o n o f t h e system i t s e l f , and assume t h a t i t can be moderated by v o l u n t a r i s t i c p o l i c y i n t e r v e n t i o n s engendered by the IMF i t s e l f . They t h e r e f o r e suggest t h a t the Fund i n t e n s i f y i t s ' s u r v e i l l a n c e ' o f t h e i n d u s t r i a l i z e d s u r p l u s c o u n t r i e s t o persuade them t o ' i n c r e a s e t h e i r domest ic a c t i v i t y and c a p i t a l o u t f l o w s ' . Here they s i m p l y i g n o r e the overwhelming power p o s i t i o n o f these c o u n t r i e s w i t h i n the IMF c r e a t e d by t h e i r s p e c i a l v o t i n g r i g h t s and, much more s i g n i f i c a n t l y , by t h e dependence o f the o r g a n i z a t i o n on them f o r a11 o f t h e funds which i t uses. They a l s o i g n o r e t h e f a c t t h a t these c o u n t r i e s , t o o , a r e i n v o l v e d i n an i n t e n s e i n t e r n a t i o n a l s t r u g g l e f o r markets and cannot a f o r d t o s a c r i f i c e t h e i r p r e s e n t economic s u p e r i o r i t y even i n t h e s h o r t r u n . The assumpt ion t h a t c a p i t a l o u t - f l o w s w i l l improve t h e s i t u a t i o n a l s o i g n o r e s t h e i r tendency t o genera te a payments s u r p l u s f o r t h e e x p o r t i n g c o u n t r y i n t h e l o n g term.

The b u l k o f t h e i r recommendations r e l a t e t o improvements i n t h e means o f f a c i l - i t a t i n g f i n a n c i a l f l o w s t o the p e r i p h e r y . Here they emphasise the need f o r t h e IMF t o inc rease the amount i t p r o v i d e s and decrease t h e s e v e r i t y o f i t s c o n d i t - i o n a l i t y by an i n c r e a s e i n quotas, a new a l l o c a t i o n o f SDRs, and an expansion o f t h e supplementary and compensatory f i n a n c i n g f a c i l i t i e s , and the Fund has i n f a c t , made s i g n i f i c a n t concessions i n a l l t h r e e a reas . Secondly, they want i nc reased a i d , and p a r t i c u l a r l y , concess iona l a i d p r o v i d e d by t h e World Bank. T h i r d l y , i nc reased f l o w s o f ' p r i v a t e c a p i t a l on commercial terms a t l o n g e r m a t u r i t i e s . " These recommendations, t o o , f l o w f rom t h e b a s i c n e o - c l a s s i c a l paradigm, and presuppose t h a t i t must always be p o s s i b l e t o i n v e s t new f i n a n c i a l assets i n p r o d u c t i v e c a p a c i t y which w i l l generate a s u f f i c i e n t growth i n e x p o r t p r o d u c t i o n t o cover t h e long- te rm f o r e i g n exchange c o s t s which t h e y n e c e s s a r i l y genera te . There i s no space here t o dea l w i t h t h e d e t a i l s o f t h e i r p roposa ls , o n l y w i t h the d o u b t f u l v a l i d i t y o f t h i s genera l assumpt ion.

I t i s no doub t t r u e t h a t t h e p o o r e s t c o u n t r i e s b e n e f i t f r o m t h e c o n c e s s i o n a l a i d p r o v i d e d t h r o u g h b i l a t e r a l and m u l t i l a t e r a l channe l s , t hough i t i s a l s o p o s s i b l e t o a rgue t h a t even t h i s can i n f l i c t u n f o r t u n a t e d i s t o r t i o n s o n t o t h e l o c a l s o c i a l and economic s t r u c t u r e s . Bu t o u r ma in f o c u s canno t be on concess- i o n a l a i d , b u t upon c r e d i t t h a t w i l l u l t i m a t e l y have t o be r e p a i d a t someth ing c l o s e t o t h e ave rage r a t e o f i n t e r e s t , s i n c e i t wou ld be wrong t o assume t h a t t h e p e r i p h e r y can d e v e l o p i n t h e l o n g r u n on t h e b a s i s o f c h a r i t y f r o m t h e w e s t . When we l o o k a t t hese f l o w s t h e c r u c i a l q u e s t i o n mus t a lways be t h e adequacy o f t h e i n v e s t m e n t o p p o r t u n i t i e s i n t h e c o u n t r i e s t o w h i c h t h e y a r e mov ing. Un less t h i s money i s i n v e s t e d p r o d u c t i v e l y i t must be d i s s i p a t e d i n i n c r e a s e d consumpt i on and t h e r e s u l t i n g i n d e b t e t e d n e s s w i l l c o n s t i t u t e a perm- a n e n t d r a i n on t h e f u t u r e p r o d u c t i v e resou rces o f t h e community. F u r t h e r , t h e new i n v e s t m e n t must be i n a reas where i t w i l l g e n e r a t e e x p o r t s o r r educe i m p o r t s , s i n c e t h e money must u l t i m a t e l y be r e p a i d i n f o r e i g n exchange. I t mus t t h e r e f o r e be made on t h e b a s i s o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l l y c o m p e t i t i v e c o s t s , o r on t h e b a s i s o f a l e v e l o f p r o t e c t i o n wh i ch does n o t r educe t h e c o m p e t i t i v e n e s s o f e x i s t i n g e x p o r t i n d u s t r i e s . Thus t h i s r o u t e t o deve lopment i m p l i e s an e v e r - i n c r e a s i n g l e v e l o f i n t e g r a t i o n i n t o t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l economy and a g r e a t l y r educed emphasis o n t h e g e n e r a t i o n o f an i n t e g r a t e d and r e l a t i v e l y autonomous i n d i g e n o u s p r o d u c t i v e s t r u c t u r e . G i ven t h e e s s e n t i a l need f o r i n c r e a s e d e x p o r t marke t s t o s u s t a i n t h e g r o w i n g o u t p u t t h a t such f i n a n c e w o u l d have t o g e n e r a t e , one wou ld e x p e c t t o see some e x a m i n a t i o n o f where t h e s e a r e t o be f o u n d among t h e recomm- e n d a t i o n s f o r t h e expans ion i n c r e d i t . Y e t no s e r i o u s c o n s i d e r a t i o n anpears t o have been g i v e n t o t h i s q u e s t i o n , o r even t o t h e n a t u r e o f t h e p r e s e n t uses t o wh i ch e x i s t i n g b o r r o w i n g i s b e i n g p u t . I f t h e p rob lem was c o n s i d e r e d s e r i o u s l y , however, t h e r e s u l t s wou ld a l m o s t c e r t a i n l y be v e r y d i s t u r b i n g , s i n c e i n p r e s e n t c o n d i t i o n s o f dep ressed demand and w i d e l y d i s t r i b u t e d s u r p l u s c a p a c i t y i t i s a l m o s t i m p o s s i b l e t o imag ine where t h e demand c o u l d be gene ra ted t o j u s t i f y t h e s c a l e o f t h e f l o w s i n v o l v e d . A t t h e moment i t seems h i g h l y l i k e l y t h a t e x i s t i n g b o r r o w i n g i s b e i n g used p r e d o m i n a n t l y t o r e c y c l e e x i s t i n g l o a n s , t o s u s t a i n u n p r o d u c t i v e (and o f t e n p a r a s i t i c ) gove rnmen ta l e x p e n d i t u r e , and t o i n c r e a s e p e r s o n a l consumpt i on . By d o i n g t h i s i t i s h a v i n g a l i m i t e d c o u n t e r - c y c l i c a l e f f e c t b y s u s t a i n i n g demand f o r m a i n l y w e s t e r n e x p o r t i n d u s t r i e s , b u t i t i s g r e a t l y i n t e n s i f y i n g t h e l o n g - t e r m p rob lem. I f t h e money i s t o be r e p a i d (and i f i t i s n o t t h e v i a b i l i t y o f t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l b a n k i n g sys tem w i l l be t h r e a t e n e d ) p e r i p h e r a l i m p o r t s w i l l have t o d e c l i n e much f u r t h e r a n d / o r t h e i r e x p o r t s w i l l have t o grow much f a s t e r . E i t h e r way t h e r e w i l l be a s i g n i f i c a n t i n c r e a s e i n t h e p r e s s u r e e x e r t e d on t h e w e s t e r n economies and i n t h e t h r e a t t o t h e s t a b i l i t y o f t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l economic o r d e r as a who le .

I n f a c t , i t i s p o s s i b l e t o a r g u e t h a t t h e I M F ' s s t r e s s on improved c r e d i t i s a l m o s t e n t i r e l y m i s p l a c e d w i t h t h e e x c e p t i o n o f t h e need f o r c o n c e s s i o n a l a i d f o r t h e p o o r e s t c o u n t r i e s . P r i v a t e c r e d i t i s now a v a i l a b l e on v e r y f a v o u r - a b l e terms s i n c e t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l banks a r e c r o n i c a l l y o v e r - s u p p l i e d w i t h f u n d s . B u t i t can o n l y be used i n c o u n t r i e s where a u s t e r i t y programmes have c u r t a i l e d t h e l o c a l m a r k e t and where e x p o r t o p p o r t u n i t i e s a r e c l o s e d o f f by t h e s u p e r i o r power o f b e t t e r p l a c e d c o m p e t i t o r s . Where eve ryone i s a t t e m p t i n g t o c r e a t e an e x p o r t - l e d boom a11 m a r k e t s w i l l be c h r o n i c a l l y o v e r - s u p p l i e d and o n l y t h e s t r o n g e s t w i l l u l t i m a t e l y succeed. The f a t e o f t h e p e r i p h e r y i n t h i s e n t e r p r i s e can be seen i n t h e e x p a n s i o n o f i t s d e f i c i t f r om US$ 22 b i l l i o n i n 1977 t o US$ 32 b i l l i o n i n 1978, and i n t h e e f f e c t i v e e l i m i n a t i o n o f t h e OPEC s u r p l u s p r i o r t o t h e mos t r e c e n t p r i c e r i s e . I n t h e s e c i r c u m s t a n c e s i t i s

d i f f i c u l t t o see what the inc reased c r e d i t p r o v i d e d by the IMF and the o t h e r agencies c o u l d do t o a l l e v i a t e the genera l problem, which cannot a l r e a d y be done through access t o what the i n t e r n a t i o n a l banks a r e so anxious t o p r o v i d e .

F i n a l l y , t h e G-24 r e f e r s t o t h e need t o c rea te b e t t e r c o n d i t i o n s f o r p r imary commodity e x p o r t s , though i t , perhaps s i g n i f i c a n t l y , says n o t h i n g about what some would cons ide r the even more i m p o r t a n t problem o f p e r i p h e r a l i n d u s t r i a l e x p o r t s .

3 . S t r u c t u r a l Change and t h e Reform o f t h e I M F

The recommendations f o r improv ing the a v a i l a b i l i t y o f IMF f i n a n c i n g t o p e r i p h e r a l c o u n t r i e s embodied i n e a r l i e r UNCTAD and OAS recommendations, and now p u t fo rward by t h e Group o f 24, a l l presuppose the maintenance o f a r e l a t i v e l y open t r a d i n g system, t h e f r e e f l o w o f c a p i t a l i n b o t h d i r e c t i o n s , and a r e l a t i v e l y l i m i t e d r o l e f o r the s t a t e i n c o n t r o l l i n g economic a c t i v i t y . The ma jo r emphasis he re i s on i n c r e a s i n g the f l o w o f f o r e i g n c r e d i t and on improv ing the terms on which i t i s t o be made a v a i l a b l e b u t the c o n t r i b u t i o n which changes i n t h i s area can a c t u a l l y make i n c o n d i t i o n s o f economic r e c e s s i o n i s l i m i t e d . What we have now t o ask i s whether an IMF c o n t r i b u t i o n cou ld be s i g n i f i c a n t w i t h i n t h e c o n t e x t o f a much s t r o n g e r p o l i c y package.

( i ) R e s t r u c t u r i n g the Mixed Economy .-

Our s t a r t i n g p o i n t when r e j e c t i n g t h e l i b e r a l i n t e r n a t i o n a l i s m o f t h e IMF, must be w i t h the need t o move f rom an a lmost t o t a l deoendence on western i n i t i a t i v e s f o r the g e n e r a t i o n o f economic change, t o t h e c r e a t i o n o f a f a r more autonomous and i n w a r d l y o r i e n t e d system. Th is i n v o l v e s a g r e a t l y i nc reased degree o f s t a t e i n t e r v e n t i o n t o c o n t r o l t h e economy and e s p e c i a l l y t o c o n t r o l f i n a n c i a l and o t h e r f l o w s w i t h t h e o u t s i d e w o r l d . The s t a r t i n g p o i n t must be w i t h t h e e x i s t i n g l e v e l s o f p r o d u c t i v e c a p a c i t y i n the hands o f t h e mass o f the p o p u l a t i o n and w i t h t h e means o f improv ing these w i t h o u t g e n e r a t i n g t h e immense s t r u c t u r a l d i s l o c a t - i o n s which the p r e s e n t e x t e r n a l l y o r i e n t e d s t r a t e g y a u t o m a t i c a l l y produces. The b a s i s f o r an autonomous process o f t h i s k i n d must be t h e a t t e m p t t o b r i n g l o c a l p r o d u c t i v e c a p a c i t y i n t o l i n e w i t h the consumption requi rements o f t h e mass o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n by e l i m i n a t i n g the s t r u c t u r a l d i s l o c a t i o n s engendered by f r e e c o m p e t i t i o n where monopoly c a p i t a l i s t f i r m s a r e i n e v i t a b l y go ing t o w i n o u t a t the expense o f t h e smal l p roducer . By so do ing , o f course, they i n v a r i a b l y d e s t r o y t h e pu rchas ing power o f t h e sma l l consumer, s i n c e what the l i b e r a l t h e o r i s t s always f a i l t o see i s t h a t people can o n l y be consumers t o t h e e x t e n t t h a t they a r e e f f e c t i v e p roducers . Thus any p o l i c y which f a i l s t o s u s t a i n l o c a l p r o d u c t i o n i n t h e i n t e r e s t o f cheap p r i c e s f o r t h e 'consumer ' must a c t u a l l y d e s t r o y the v e r y pu rchas ing power i t i s i n tended t o p r o t e c t . T h i s i s n o t t o argue t h a t t h e p e r i p h e r y s h o u l d o n l y use backward techno logy , o n l y t h a t i t s t e c h n o l o g i c a l c h o i c e shou ld be determined by t h e need t o m a i n t a i n an e f f e c t i v e balance between l e v e l s o f employment, l e v e l s o f o u t p u t and t h e n e c e s s i t y f o r t h e p r o d u c t i o n o f i t ems o f mass consumption. A ba lance between impor ted and l o c a l techno logy would a l s o have t o be s t r u c k , and t h i s t o o , would have t o be determined by t h e need t o m a i n t a i n employment and mass consumpt ion and n o t t o ach ieve t h e h i g h e s t r a t e o f p r o f i t as t h e l i b e r a l t h e o r i s t s b e l i e v e s h o u l d be the case. What a r e the i m p l i c a t i o n s o f t h i s genera l o b j e c t i v e and how f a r can we a n t i c i p a t e a p o s i t i v e r o l e f o r a reformed IMF i n a c h i e v i n g i t ?

The u n d e r l y i n g assump t i on h e r e i s t h e n e c e s s i t y t o e l i m i n a t e f r e e access t o f o r e i g n compe t i t i o n on t h e grounds t h a t t h i s , g i v e n t h e i n e q u a l i t y i n t h e r e s o u r c e endowments o f t h e two s i d e s , mus t n e c e s s a r i l y i n t e n s i f y t h e i nequ - a l i t i e s w h i c h a l r e a d y l i m i t t h e p o s s i b i l i t i e s o f equa l exchange between c e n t r e and p e r i p h e r y and c o n s t a n t l y undermine t h e e f f e c t s o f any p o l i c y wh i ch a t t e m p t s t o p roduce a r e a l i g n m e n t w i t h i n t h e f ramework o f c o m p a r a t i v e advan tage . If t h i s i s e s s e n t i a l , we have t o ask whe the r an o r g a n i z a t i o n l i k e t h e IMF can be e x p e c t e d t o p l a y any r o l e i n a sys tem s p e c i f i c a l l y des igned t o p roduce a fund- amenta l r e a l i g n m e n t between t h e economic p o s i t i o n o f t h e dom inan t i n d u s t r i a l c o u n t r i e s w h i c h have a lways c o n t r o l l e d i t s p o l i c y and t h a t o f t h e p e r i p h e r y . On t h e f a c e o f i t t h e answer t o t h i s q u e s t i o n must be no - t r a d i t i o n a l l y t h e reg imes wh i ch have a t t e m p t e d t o use even a l i m i t e d v e r s i o n o f t h e p o l i c y package o u t l i n e d above have been s u b j e c t e d t o heavy p r e s s u r e b y t h e dominant c o u n t r i e s , and e s p e c i a l l y t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s . A l t h o u g h t h i s f a c t canno t be e x c l u s i v e l y b lamed f o r t h e f a i l u r e o f t hese reg imes , i t has c e r t a i n l y n o t been an i n s i g n i f - i c a n t f a c t o r i n b r i n g i n g them down, and t h e r e i s l i t t l e doub t t h a t t h e IMF and t h e Wor ld Bank have a l l o w e d themselves t o be used i n t h e same way. T h i s may be because o f t h e c l o s e l i n k s between t h e two agenc ies and t h e Amer ican gove rn - me":t, e s p e c i a l l y i m p o r t a n t i n t h e f i f t i e s and s i x t i e s , i t may be because o f t h e c o n s i s t e n t l y l i b e r a l p e r s p e c t i v e s wh i ch t h e y have deve loped wh i ch i n e v i t a b l y p o i n t i n t h e d i r e c t i o n o f p r o v i d i n g a s s i s t a n c e f o r c o u n t r i e s wh i ch adop t ' a p p r o p r i a t e ' p o l i c i e s and o f l i m i t i n g i t f o r o t h e r s . S i n c e b o t h agenc ies r e l y

f o r t h e i r r e s o u r c e s upon t h e s u r p l u s e s g e n e r a t e d b y t h e s u r p l u s c o u n t r i e s , i t i s o n l y t o be expec ted t h a t t h e y s h o u l d a d o p t t h e f r e e t r a d e i d e o l o g y wh i ch has a lways been t h e n a t u r a l v i e w p o i n t o f t h e dom inan t c o u n t r i e s i n i n t e r n a t i o n a l t r a d e . I f t h e r e i s no p o s s i b i l i t y o f chang ing t h i s and o f e n a b l i n g t h e agenc ies t o p r o v i d e resou rces f o r c o u n t r i e s w h i c h , i n i t i a l l y a t l e a s t , a r e g o i n g t o d i s c r i m i n a t e v e r y s t r o n g l y a g a i n s t t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l p e n e t r a t i o n o f t h e i r economies, i t i s c e r t a i n l y t h e case t h a t t h e y w i l l have t o be d i s p e n s e d w i t h s i n c e t h e i r i n f l u e n c e w i l l a lways be i n t h e d i r e c t i o n o f i n t e n s i f y i n g e x t e r n a l denendenre and i n t e r n a l imba lances .

Ye t i t i s a l s o i m p o r t a n t t o p o i n t t o t h e c o s t s o f programmes l i k e t h e one o u t l i n e d h e r e i f i t l e d t o a comp le te w i t h d r a w a l o f a l l f o rms o f e x t e r n a l a s s i s t a n c e . A l t h o u g h p e r i p h e r a l c o u n t r i e s c o u l d b e n e f i t v e r y s u b s t a n t i a l l y t h r o u g h t h e e l i m i n a t i o n o f open and h i d d e n e x p o r t s o f c a p i t a l , t h e y wou ld be a b l e t o d e v e l o p an autonomous base more r a p i d l y and w i t h l e s s r e p r e s s i o n i f t h e y we re s t i l l a b l e t o o b t a i n access t o i n t e r n a t i o n a l c r e d i t on f a v o u r a b l e t e r m s . To s e r v e t h e pu rpose o f t h e c o u n t r i e s conce rned t h e s e f u n d s w o u l d have t o be made a v a i l a b l e f r e e o f c o n d i t i o n s r e l a t i n g t o o v e r a l l t r a d e p o l i c y and e s p e c i a l l y f r e e o f c o n d i t i o n s as t o t h e goods on w h i c h t h e y we re t o be s p e n t . ywould a i d o r i e n t e d w h o l l y t owards d e v e l o p i n g t h e p r o d u c t i v e c a p a c i t y o f t h e l o g economy and w i t h no i n t e n t i o n o f f i n a n c i n g t h e e x p o r t s o f t h e s u r p l u s m e t r o p o l - i t a n economies wh i ch had g e n e r a t e d t h e f u n d s p r o v i d e d by t h e c r e d i t i n t h e f i r s t i n s t a n c e . Given c l o s e c o n t r o l o v e r t h e l o c a l economy i t w o u l d a lways b e p o s s i b l e t o f i n d l o c a l i n v e s t m e n t o p p o r t u n i t i e s s i n c e 1 o c a l e n t r e p r e n e u r s - w h e t h e r p r i v a t e , employed b y t h e s t a t e o r b y c o - o p e r a t i v e s - wou ld be s h i e l d e d f rom t h e e f f e c t s o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l c o m p e t i t i o n wh i ch now makes such i n v e s t m e n t i m p o s s i b l e e x c e p t i n v e r y l i m i t e d and backward sphe res , T h i s w o u l d s t i m u l a t e an i nc l i nenous q r o w t h p rocess w h i c h wou ld e v e n t u a l l y r e s u l t i n expanded i n t e r n -

a t i o n a l t r a d e and hence i n l a r g e r markets f o r overseas p roducers . But t h e r e would be no guarantee t h a t t h e c o u n t r y p r o v i d i n g the f i nances would b e n e f i t d i r e c t l y f rom it, and t h e r e would p r o b a b l y be r e l a t i v e l y l i t t l e e x t e r n a l t r a d e generated i n t h e s h o r t run g i v e n the fundamental o r i e n t a t i o n towards g e n e r a t i n g an autonomous and i n t e r n a l l y o r i e n t e d g rowth process r a t h e r than one dominated by t h e need t o produce f o r the w o r l d marke t . The r e a l p o s s i b i l i t y of t h e dominant i n d u s t r i a l i s e d c o u n t r i e s agreeing t o an o p e r a t i o n o f t h i s k i n d i n the p resen t c r i s i s r i d d e n w o r l d s i t u a t i o n i s o b v i o u s l y remote. As t h i n g s now s t a n d these c o u n t r i e s a re ve ry much more l i k e l y t o use t h e i r ve ry cons ide rab le i n t e r n - a t i o n a l power t o a t t e m p t t o ' d e s t a b i l i z e ' any regime which at tempted such a s t r a t e g y by imposing o v e r t o r c o v e r t sanc t ions o f one s o r t o r ano ther des igned t o d i s c r e d i t t he regime and s t r e n g t h e n i n t e r n a l f o r c e s opposed t o an autonomous p o l i c y because o f t h e i r own dependence on e x t e r n a l economic fo rces .

!,/hat a re e q u a l l y i m p o r t a n t i n t h e c o n t e x t o f these p o l i c i e s a re t h e v e r y g r e a t p o l i t i c a l d i f f i c u l t i e s n e c e s s a r i l y i n v o l v e d i n m a i n t a i n i n g t h e a1 1 iance between n a t i o n a l c a p i t a l and n a t i o n a l l a b o u r when t h e l o c a l c a p i t a l i s t c l a s s i s ve ry underdeveloped and l a r g e f r a c t i o n s o f i t have been c r e a t e d i n response t o needs o f m e t r o p o l i t a n c a p i t a l f o r d i s t r i b u t i o n o u t l e t s , m a r k e t i n g agencies and t h e l i k e . Even more s i g n i f i c a n t l y would be the problems i n v o l v e d where s u b s t a n t i a l amounts o f the l a n d a r e c o n t r o l l e d by backward l a n d l o r d s o r i e n t e d towards e x p o r t p r o d u c t i o n u s i n g super -exp lo i t e d l a b o u r f o r c e s . Given t h e c o n t r o l which b o t h these s t r a t a would a t tempt t o e x e r t ove r t h e s t a t e , t h e ~ o s s i b i l i t y o f a n a t i o n a l a l l i a n c e capable o f b r i n g i n g i t under c o n t r o l and u s i n g i t s l eve rage t o f o r c e a t r a n s i t i o n t o an i n w a r d l y o r i e n t e d economy, i s i ndeed d i f f i c u l t t o a n t i c i p a t e e s p e c i a l l y g i v e n t h e l i k e l i h o o d o f h o s t i l e e x t e r n a l i n t e r v e n t i o n . Yet t h e p rospec ts of t h e p resen t s i t u a t i o n a r e e q u a l l y f r u s t r a t i n g , s i n c e we can o n l y env isage i n c r e a s i n g l e v e l s o f e x p l o i t a t i o n , c o i n c i d i n q w i t h r i s i n g l i v i n g s tandards f o r the dependent n a t i o n a l b o u r g e o i s i e a l o n g s i d e i n c r e a s i n g m a r g i n a l i z a t i o n among a l l o f those elements which t r a d i t i o n a l l y s e r v i c e d t h e i m p o r t - s u b s t i t u t i o n s e c t o r . Unless some means can be found o f making a p o l i t i c a l s t r u c t u r e which i s capable ~f e n f o r c i n g an autonomous economic programme t h e s i t u a t i o n now c o n f r o n t i n g the government and peoples o f I r a n and Nicaragua w i l l spread t o many more c o u n t r i e s and t h e c o s t i n human s u f f e r i n g and wasted resources w i l l be unimaginable. I n making t h e i r d e c i s i o n s about t h e t r a n s f e r o f ' r e a l r e s o u r c e s ' t o t h e p e r i p h e r y t h e dominant elements i n t h e m e t r o p o l i t a n c o u n t r i e s would do w e l l t o bear t h i s g r i m p r o s p e c t i n mind.

( i i ) The IMF and S o c i a l i s m

Given the p r e s e n t tendency towards i n t e n s i f i e d d e f l a t i o n and r e p r e s s i o n i n t h e p e r i p h e r y , and the d i f f i c u l t i e s i n v o l v e d i n c r e a t i n g an autonomous economic s t r a t e g y o f t h e k i n d o u t l i n e d above, we can expec t a s u b s t a n t i a l e s c a l a t i o n o f r e v o l u t i o n a r y p o l i t i c a l s t r u g g l e i n many r e g i o n s over t h e n e x t decade. Given the i n c o r p o r a t i o n o f most o f t h e ind igenous r u l i n g s t r a t a i n t h e system o f e x p l o i t a t i o n , these s t r u g g l e s w i l l have t o be o rgan ized around t h e i n t e r e s t s o f t h e oppressed m a j o r i t i e s - whether i n the l o w e r l e v e l s o f wage employment, i n t h e poor peasantry , o r i n t h e m a n i f o l d m a r g i n a l occupa t ions which make up the s o - c a l l e d ' i n f o r m a l s e c t o r ' . These movements w i l l t h e r e f o r e have t o opera te w i t h i n an e s s e n t i a l l y m a r x i s t t h e o r e t i c a l framework, thus f o l l o w i n g i n t h e f o o t s t e p s o f t h e i r predecessors i n China, Cuba, N o r t h Eas t As ia , Angola

and Mozambique. Should they choose t o do t h i s - and t h e s h o r t - t e r m cos ts a re go ing t o be enormously h i g h - then t h e y w i l l n e c e s s a r i l y have i n mind an economic s t r a t e g y o r i e n t e d towards p l a n n i n g and autonomy, s i n c e a s o c i e t y c o n t r o l l e d by the work ing c l a s s i s h a r d l y l i k e l y t o accep t the p o s s i b i l i t y o f i t s p r o d u c t i v e c a p a c i t y be ing e x t e r n a l l y owned and c o n t r o l l e d . I t i s imposs ib le ne re t o go i n t o the d e t a i l s o f such a programme, except t o say t h a t i t appears t o us t o h o l d o u t t h e most s e r i o u s p rospec ts f o r s o l v i n g t h e problems o f ' r e d i s t r i b u t i o n w i t h g r o w t h ' s i n c e i t e l i m i n a t e s t h e fundamental c o n t r a c t i o n

between bo th c a p i t a l an l a b o u r and, more e s p e c i a l l y i n t h e c o n t e x t o f t h i s a n a l y s i s , o f e x t e r n a l versus i n t e r n a l c o n t r o l ove r t h e economy. The e l i m i n a t i o n o f p r i v a t e ownership and accumu la t ion a l s o e l i m i n a t e s the problem o f c o n t r a - d i c t i o n between p r i v a t e and s o c i a l advantage which i s the fundamental o b s t a c l e t o p l a n n i n g i n a c a p i t a l i s t system and t h i s c r e a t e s t h e p o s s i b i l i t y ( though n o t t h e i n e v i t a b i l i t y ) o f a s u s t a i n e d process o f e q u i t a b l e and balanced growth.

I n t h e c o n t e x t o f t h i s s tudy we have t o ask whether those concerned w i t h a s o c i a l i s t s t r a t e g y - whether as members o f a government l i k e t h a t o f Vietnam, o r as members o f a p o l i t i c a l movement s t i l l i n o p ~ o s i t i o n - shou ld i n v o l v e themselves i n the f a c i l i t i e s o f f e r e d by the IMF. The problem i s a complex one which cannot be answered w i t h any c e r t a i n t y s i n c e Vietnam and Guinea Bissau a r e the f i r s t s o c i a l i s t c o u n t r i e s o f t h e p e r i p h e r y t o j o i n t h e o r g a n i z a t i o n and t h e i r exper ience has been v e r y 1 i m i t e d . Many d o c t r i n a i r e m a r x i s t s would no doubt argue t h a t a s s o c i a t i o n w i t h an e s s e n t i a l l y c a p i t a l i s t o r g a n i z a t i o n must n e c e s s a r i l y i n v o l v e a t h r e a t t o t h e r e v o l u t i o n a r y p r i n c i p l e s o f t h e regime e s p e c i a l l y g i v e n the r e c o r d o f the Fund i n d e a l i n g w i t h t h e p e r i p h e r y h i t h e r t o . I t s o f f i c i a l s a r e bound t o take t h e i r e s s e n t i a l l y l i b e r a l p r e s o p p o s i t - i ons w i t h them when they deal w i t h these c o u n t r i e s , and a r e h i g h l y u n l i k e l y t o understand t h e p r i n c i p l e s o f p l a n n i n g i n a c o n t e x t where t h e g e n e r a t i o n o f needs and o f t h e p r o d u c t i v e c a p a c i t y t o meet them i s a f u n c t i o n o f an e s s e n t i a l l y p o l i t i c a l process. To t h e e x t e n t t h a t these c o u n t r i e s come t o r e l y upon f i n a n c i n g p r o v i d e d t o them by t h e IMF, and more e s p e c i a l l y the assoc ia ted Euro- cu r rency banks, they a r e t h e r e f o r e l i k e l y t o be drawn i n t o a fo rm o f economic c a l c u l a t i o n which w i l l r e p l a c e s o c i a l i s t p l a n n i n g w i t h a d i s g u i s e d fo rm o f c a p i t a l i s t r a t i o n a l i t y . I t can be argued t h a t t h e p resen t t r a n s i t i o n i n China f rom an autonomous s t r a t e g y which p laced ' p o l i t i c s i n command' t o one f a r more e x t e r n a l l y o r i e n t e d which p laced t e c h n i c a l r a t i o n a l i t y a t t h e f o r e f r o n t must have n e g a t i v e i m p l i c a t i o n s f o r e q u a l i t y and p o l i t i c a l cohesion i n the l o n g term. And i n t h i s r e g a r d i t i s e v i d e n t t h a t the a v a i l a b i l i t y o f generous sources o f f o r e i g n c r e d i t have been ve ry s i g n i f i c a n t i n e n a b l i n g t h e new regime t o make a t r a n s i t i o n o f t h i s k i n d .

There seems t o us t o be c o n s i d e r a b l e s t r e n g t h i n these arguments, y e t i t i s a l s o p o s s i b l e t o argue t h a t they depend t o a cons ide rab le degree on t h e v i a b i l i t y o f the i n t e r n a t a l economic and p o l i t i c a l s t r u c t u r e s i n t h e c o u n t r y concerned. The IMF and World Bank appear t o be w i l l i n g t o extend ass is tance t o s o c i a l i s t c o u n t r i e s w i t h o u t demanding a co r respond ing inc rease i n p r i v a t - i z a t i o n o f ownership and f r e e marke t c o m p e t i t i o n . The c r u c i a l weakness o f the c a p i t a l i s t i c a l l y o r i e n t e d c o u n t r i e s i n f l u e n c e d by these agencies l i e s i n t h e f a c t t h a t the new p o l i c i e s a r e c l e a r l y i n t h e i n t e r e s t o f t h e p r i v a t e i n t e r e s t s i n s i d e t h e c o u n t r y which a r e t i e d i n t o the i n t e r n a t i o n a l c a p i t a l i s t system. These groups have a ves ted i n t e r e s t i n t h e s o r t s of p o l i c i e s advocated by these

agencies, and they have t h e p r o d u c t i v e c a p a c i t y capable o f b e n e f i t i n g f rom t h e techno logy which can be made a v a i l a b l e t o them th rough m e t r o p o l i t a n loans . I t i s t h e i r c o n t r o l ove r b o t h p r o d u c t i o n and p o l i t i c a l l i f e which g ives them t h e c a p a c i t y t o use IMF and o t h e r i n t e r n a t i o n a l c r e d i t s f o r purposes which c o n s t a n t l y deepen dependence and i n e q u a l i t i e s . To t h e e x t e n t t h a t t h e IMF i s now c o n f r o n t e d by a l o c a l s t a t e i n which economic l i f e i s s e c u r e l y under ind igenous c o n t r o l , and t r a d i n g r e l a t i o n s h i p s a re n o t determined by the vagar ies o f the market , t h e p o s s i b i l i t y o f i t s be ing used i n t h i s way shou ld be much s m a l l e r . I t m i g h t then become a source f o r i n t e r n a t i o n a l bo r row ing which m i g h t make i t p o s s i b l e f o r such c o u n t r i e s t o o b t a i n access t o c a p i t a l goods r e q u i r e d f o r a programme o f mass m o b i l i z a t i o n w i t h l e s s s t r e s s t h a n wou ld o t h e r - w ise be t h e case. But t h i s c o u l d o n l y o c c u r where the l e v e l o f i n t e r n a l c o n t r o l was so secure t h a t t h i s access t o e x t e r n a l resources c o u l d n o t be e x p l o i t e d by those concerned t o r e - e s t a b l i s h a system i n which dependence on wes te rn t e c h n o l - ogy served as an a l t e r n a t i v e t o t h e g e n e r a t i o n o f an autonomous system based p r i m a r i l y upon r a i s i n g t h e t e c h n i c a l l e v e l o f t h e mass o f the p o p u l a t i o n th rough the development o f e f f e c t i v e forms o f c o l l e c t i v i s e d l a b o u r . N a t i o n a l independence i s n o t p rec luded by t r a d e w i t h o r by t h e i m p o r t a t i o n o f c a p i t a l goods f rom the o u t s i d e wor ld ; i t i s undermined by a system o f exchange wh ich system- a t i c a l l y subord ina tes t h e ind igenous economy t o t h e i m p e r a t i v e s o f a system o f p r o d u c t i o n developed e x t e r n a l l y t o meet d i f f e r e n t needs and t o se rve d i f f e r e n t i n t e r e s t s . Fo r as l o n g as the f i n a n c i n g can be p r o v i d e d on terms which d i d n o t i n c l u d e such i n e q u a l i t y - and i t would e s s e n t i a l l y be up t o Agencies t o prove t h a t i t c o u l d be - then t h e maintenance o f an a rm 's l e n g t h r e l a t i o n s h i p would no doubt be of r e a l use once a v i a b l e system o f i n t e r n a l economic o r g a n i z a t i o n had been e s t a b l i s h e d .

F D A D O S S I E R 5 , MARCH 1979

BUILDING B L O C K S 4

COLD, THE INTERNATIONAL H3NETARY FUND AND THE T H I RE ',IOPLD

b y Lee lananda de S i l v a

T h i r d ;-Jorld Forum r e p r e s e n t a t i v e a t IFDA

O r i g i n a l l anguage : E n g l i s h -. .

A b s t r a c t : .- - - The a i m o f t h e T h i r d h ' o r l d i n r e f o r n i i n f l t h e I f l F s h o u l d be t o make

i t a f a c t o r t h a t proniot,es i t s autonomy r a t h e r t h a n i t s c o n t i n u e d dependence

The IMF has t o b e more conce rned w i t h T h i r d Wor l d p r i o r i t i e s such as t h e

p r o v i s i o n o f b a s i c needs a n d i n c r e a s e d economic c o - o n e r a t i o n w i t h i n T h i r d

W o r l d c o u n t r i e s and t o t h i s end t h e T h i r d Hot- Id s h o u l d make use o f t h e K1F

g o l d s t o c k w o r t h U S $ 2 4 b i l l i o n a t p r e s e n t p r i c e s . R a t h e r t h a n a g r e e

t o i t s g r a d u a l e r o s i o n , t h e T h i r d \World s h o u l d make use .~ o f t h e IMF q o l d

s t o c k ( 1 ) t o c r e a t e a b a s i c needs f a c i l i t y t o p r o v i d e f unds t o c o u n t r i e s

p r e p a r e d t o channe l f u n d s f o r t h e r e l i e f o f a b s o l u t e p o v e r t y , and ( 2 ) t o

p r o v i d e 100 p e r c e n t g o l d c o v e r t o a new c u r r e n c y u n i t t o p romo te economic

t r a n s a c t i o n s w i t h i n t h e T h i r d Wor l d .

1'3~. LE FONDS MONETAIRE INTERNATIONAL ET LE TIERS MONDE

L 'ob jec t i f du Tiers flonde, en ce qui concerne la rEforme d u FtlI, dev ra i t e t r e de l e f a i r e contribuer 2 favor iser son autonomie p lu t6 t que sa dependance. Le F!!I dev ra i t accorder plus d ' a t t e n t i o n aux pr ior i t" du Tiers Monde, conme par exemple l a s a t i s f a c t i o n des besoins humains fondamentaux ou l a cooperation en t r e pays du Tiers r-londe. A c e t e f f e t , l e Tiers fonde devra i t f a i r e usage d ' o r du FMI, dont l a valeur e s t actuellement de 24 mi l l i a rds de do l l a r s des Etats-Unis. P lu t6 t que d ' accep te r son erosion progressive, l e Tiers f!onde pourra i t u t i l i s e r c e t t e reserve ( 1 ) pour creer u n instrument pour l e s besoins fondamentaux qui f o u r n i r a i t des ressources aux pays disposes 2 l e s u t i l i s e r pour l ' e r ad i ca t ion de la pauvre- t e absolue, e t ( 2 ) pour assurer une couverture-or 2 100% 8 une nouvelle monnaie qui f a c i l i t e r a i t 1es echanqes 8 l ' i n t e r i e u r du Tiers flonde.

EL ORO, EL FOND0 MONETARIO INTERNACIONAL Y EL TERCER MUNDO

~{es umen

El proposito del Tercer Mundo en reformar el FHI debe c o n s i s t i r en hacer del FMI un f ac to r que promueve l a autonomia y no l a dependencia continua del Tercer Mundo. El FMI t i ene que preocuparse mas con l a s prioridades del Tercer Mundo, t a l e s como el apt "visionamiento de necesidades basicas y e l aumento de cooperaci6n econ6mica en t r e paises del Tercer Mundo. Para alcanzar es tos f i nes e l Tercer Mundo debe u t i l i z a r l a reserva de oro del FMI que vale inas de US$ 24 b i l lones a precios ac tua l e s . En vez de e s t a r de acuerdo con su erosion gradual, el Tercer Mundo debe i n s i s t i r para que el inventario del oro del FMI sea usado para ( 1 ) c r ea r un vehiculo de necesidades basicas que provea fondos para paises dispuestos a canal izar recursos para e l a l i v i o de l a miser ia , y (2 ) proveer l a cobertura oro a 100% de una nueva unidad de d iv isas para promover transacciones econ6micas dentro del Tercer Mundo.

Leelananda de S i l v a

GOLD, THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND AND THE THIRD WORLD

There i s an i m p o r t a n t school o f though t which asc r ibes t h e shor tcomings o f the IMF t o t h e r e j e c t i o n o f the Keynes p roposa ls a t B r e t t o n Noods. The accep t - ance o f the Keynes p roposa ls would doub t less have improved the p rospec ts o f the d e b t o r c o u n t r i e s and i n t r o d u c e d a g r e a t e r symmetry i n the ad jus tmen t process. But t h a t would n o t have made the IMF a more a p p r o p r i a t e i n s t i t u t i o n f o r t h e p resen t concernsof the T h i r d World. I n seek ing a new o r i e n t a t i o n w i t h i n t h e IMF the T h i r d World shou ld n o t demand a r e t u r n t o Keynes and the enlargement. of the c r e d i t l i n e s w i t h i n the p r e s e n t system o f r u l e s . l-itiat i t needs i s a q u a l i t a t i v e improvement o f t h e IMF system which o n l y would enable the T h i r d World t o be an i n c r e a s i n g l y autonomous r a t h e r than an i n c r e a s i n g l y dependent f a c t o r i n t h e World economy. The IMF m i g h t do worse than t o examine T h i r d World concerns and p r i o r i t i e s and assess i t s own c a p a c i t y and scope f o r g r e a t e r f l e x i b i l i t y i n meet ing those needs.

T h i r d World p r i o r i t i e s

Bas ic needs a r e now accorded ve ry h i g h p r i o r i t y among the o b j e c t i v e s o f development e f f o r t s , b o t h a t n a t i o n a l and i n t e r n a t i o n a l l e v e l . Th is would c o n t i n u e t o be so f o r t h e r e s t o f t h i s c e n t u r y as t h e e l i m i n a t i o n o f abso lu te p o v e r t y p r o v i d e s the most u r g e n t and p r a c t i c a l a rea f o r c o - o p e r a t i v e a c t i o n o f b o t h N o r t h and South. The i m p l i c a t i o n s f o r dohor c o u n t r i e s and i n t e r n - a t i o n a l agencies i n t h e a d o p t i o n o f a b a s i c needs s t r a t e g y have been t h e sub- j e c t o f cons ide rab le s t u d y . I t i s i n t h i s c o n t e x t somewhat s u r p r i s i n g t h a t inadequate a t t e n t i o n has so f a r been focused on t h e f u t u r e impact o f IMF p o l i c - i e s on t h e p r o v i s i o n o f b a s i c human needs i n T h i r d World c o u n t r i e s .

I t need i n f a c t t o be argued t h a t the concern shou ld even be broader , encompas- s i n g n o t o n l y b a s i c needs b u t the d i r e c t i o n o f IMF p o l i c i e s i n r e l a t i o n t o concepts such as g r e a t e r s e l f - r e l i a n c e , techno logy i ssues and g r e a t e r t r a d e w i t h i n t h e T h i r d World. C o l l e c t i v e s e l f - r e l i a n c e i s an accepted axiom o f i n t e r n - a t i o n a l p o l i c y and the e x t e n t t o which t h e IMF i s even i m p l i c i t l y committed t o t h i s p r i n c i p l e needs a n a l y s i s . It i s p o s s i b l e t h a t such an a n a l y s i s would i n d i c a t e t h a t t h e p r e s e n t p o l i c i e s o f the IMF work i n a c o n t r a r y d i r e c t i o n . C r i t i c i s m o f t h e IMF and i t s p o l i c y p r e s c r i p t i o n s i s n o t uncommon. IMF p o l i c - i e s a r e a t t r i b u t e d as a cause i n t h e r i s e and f a l l o f governments, c i v i l commotion and such o t h e r t r a u m a t i c exper iences w i t h the p o s s i b l e e x c e p t i o n o f n a t u r a l c a l a m i t i e s . There i s no doubt t h a t IMF p o l i c i e s c a l l f o r l e s s s t a t e i n t e r v e n t i o n i n n a t i o n a l economies and t h e r e f o r e f o r 1 ess pub1 i c expend i tu res , l e s s taxes on t h e i n v e s t i n g c lasses and g e n e r a l l y , f o r the f r e e and unregu l - a t e d o p e r a t i o n o f market f o r c e s . P r i c e " d i s t o r t i o n s " a r e anathema t o the IMF and w e l f a r e expend i tu res , e.g. food s u b s i d i e s , a r e n o t t h e most favoured ins t ruments o f government p o l i c y i n the IMF r u l e book. Mr. Wi t teveen as Managing D i r e c t o r o f t h e Fund made t h e p o i n t t h a t " t h e Fund avo ids t a k i n g a v iew on t h e a p p r o p r i a t e d i s t r i b u t i o n of the burden o f ad jus tmen t as between v a r i o u s s e c t i o n s o f society!/." Though as a s ta tement o f t h e fo rma l p o s i t i o n

I/ IMF Survey, 22 May 1978 -

i t i s t r u e , t h e IMF's p roposa ls f o r remedia l a c t i o n leave l i t t l e cho ice f o r governments i n d e t e r m i n i n g the i n c i d e n c e o f t h e i r impact .

A d i s t i n c t i o n has t o be drawn between the s o c i a l w e l f a r e expend i tu res o f governments and those t h a t a re d i r e c t e d towards t h e a l l e v i a t i o n o f a b s o l u t e p o v e r t y . The consequences o f a cutback i n w e l f a r e expend i tu res c o n d i t i o n e d o n IMF c r e d i t s need n o t n e c e s s a t i l y be t o the d e t r i m e n t o f bas ic human needs. Bu t a p roper q u e s t i o n a t a t ime when t h e r e i s genera l acceptance o f t h e v a l i d i t y o f a b a s i c human needs s t r a t e g y i s whether t h e r e i s no p o s i t i v e o b l i g a t i o n on t h e p a r t of IMF t o ensure t h a t b a s i c human needs a r e n o t a d v e r s e l y a f f e c t e d as a r e s u l t o f the imp lementa t ion o f i t s recommendations. The IMF would have t o be more concerned w i t h t h e s t r u c t u r e o f growth r a t e s r a t h e r t h a n w i t h t h e i r mere magni tude.

IMF c o n d i t i o n a l i t y has been a c r i t i c a l f a c t o r i n t h e O r g a n i z a t i o n ' s r e l a t i o n - s h i p s w i t h member c o u n t r i e s . There a r e those who argue a g a i n s t s t i p u l a t i o n o f any c o n d i t i o n s as i m p i n g i n g on t h e s o v e r e i g n t y o f n a t i o n s t a t e s . There a r e o t h e r s who see no o b j e c t i o n t o c o n d i t i o n a l i t y c lauses p r o v i d e d t h e y a r e t h e r i g h t ones f rom t h e i r own p a r t i c u l a r angle. The p r o v i s i o n o f b a s i c human needs as a c e n t r a l o b j e c t i v e o f development would p r o b a b l y q u a l i f y f o r i n c o r p - o r a t i o n as an " a p p r o p r i a t e " c o n d i t i o n a l i t y c lause f rom most p o i n t o f v iews. It c o u l d t h e r e f o r e be f o r t h e IMF t o m o n i t o r t h e impac t o f i t s p r e s c r i p t i o n s on t h e achievement o f b a s i c human needs. "Moral Suasion" i s a d e s i r a b l e c e n t r a l bank ing p r a c t i c e which c o u l d be u s e f u l l y adopted by t h e IMF.

Since t h e c o m p a r a t i v e l y r e c e n t e x p r e s s i o n o f u n i v e r s a l concern on env i ronmenta l i s s u e s , agencies l i k e t h e I B R D t e n d t o b u i l d i n t o t h e i r p r o j e c t s sa feguard elements t o p r e v e n t abuses o f t h e envi ronment . S i m i l a r l y , the p r o v i s i o n o f b a s i c human needs i n t h e T h i r d World c o u l d be ensured o n l y i f p rogress i n t h a t d i r e c t i o n i s n o t r e t a r d e d a t f r e q u e n t i n t e r v a l s due t o c o n s t a n t changes i n economic p o l i c y . Bas ic human needs have t o be looked upon as a f i r s t c l a i m on t h e resources o f b o t h t h e n a t i o n a l and t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l community. The IMF has an o v e r r i d i n g o b l i g a t i o n i n v iew o f i t s tremendous p o l i t i c a l and f i n a n c i a l l eve rage , p a r t i c u l a r l y i n those c o u n t r i e s which c o u l d do v e r y much more t o p r o v i d e f o r t h e b a s i c needs o f t h e i r peoples, i f t h e i r e f f o r t s a t economic growthwere tempered w i t h a g r e a t e r concern f o r the r e - d i s t r i b u t i v e aspects o f t h a t g rowth .

The IMF r e m i t (and a l s o t h a t o f GATT) i s such t h a t i t s p r i m a r y concern i s w i t h t h e e x t e r n a l s e c t o r o f T h i r d World economies - e x p o r t s and i m p o r t s , consumption o f impor ted and e x p o r t a b l e goods, t h e l e v e l o f e x t e r n a l deb t , p r i v a t e f o r e i g n inves tmen t and commercial bank c r e d i t , and t h e genera l h e a l t h o f t h e balance o f payments. The IMF concern i n domest ic economic management i s e s s e n t i a l l y geared t o improvements i n these and r e l a t e d d i r e c t i o n s based on an a p p r o p r i a t e range o f i n d i c a t o r s . F i n a n c i a l p r o b i t y and pay ing one 's way i n t h e w o r l d a r e supreme o b j e c t i v e s o f the IMF mandate. I t i s t h i s excess ive concern w i t h r a t e s o f economic g rowth and balance i n f o r e i g n exchanges, and i t s r e l a t i v e unconcern w i t h t h e w o r s t aspects o f p o v e r t y w i t h i n t h e T h i r d World t h a t makes one q u e s t i o n t h e IMF's i n t e r e s t i n b a s i c human needs. The e x t e r n a l s e c t o r o f most T h i r d World economies i s s t i l l o f t h e ' e n c l a v e " t y p e , more c l o s e l y i n t e g r a t e d w i t h the i n t e r n a t i o n a l economy r a t h e r than w i t h i t s own domest ic

economy. An i m p o r t a n t task f o r the e x t e r n a l s e c t o r o f these economies i s t o s t r e n g t h e n t h e i r backward l i n k a g e s r a t h e r than t h e IMF's i m p l i e d emphasis on f o r w a r d l i n k a g e s . An e x p o r t - o r i e n t e d s t r a t e g y i s n o t n e c e s s a r i l y d e t r i m e n t a l t o Bas ic Human Needs s t r a t e g i e s i n poor c o u n t r i e s p r o v i d e d t h e b e n e f i t o f v a l u e a c c r u a l s remains w i t h i n these c o u n t r i e s and mechanisms a r e e s t a b l i s h e d f o r t h e w i d e r d i s t r i b u t i o n o f such va lues - through g r e a t e r l a b o u r i n t e n s i t y , more a p p r o p r i a t e forms o f technology, and so on. The IMF's concern w i t h g r e a t e r access t o markets f o r i nc reased expor ts o f T h i r d World c o u n t r i e s c o u l d be r e c o n c i l e d w i t h such s t r a t e g i e s i f t h e IMF were t o p r o v i d e more o p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r t r a d e w i t h i n the T h i r d Wor ld. The Compensatory F inanc ing F a c i l i t y i s t o o l i m i t e d i n scope t o p r o v i d e f o r some o f these s t r u c t u r a l changes i n e x p o r t regimes r e q u i r e d i n t h e f o r e i g n t r a d e o f T h i r d World c o u n t r i e s , and t h e IMF cou ld t h i n k i n terms o f new f a c i l i t i e s t o promote such changes w i t h i n the o v e r a l l IMF o b j e c t i v e s o f t r a d e c r e a t i o n . ECDC i s n o t a concept f o r UNCTAD o n l y , and i t s r e a l i z a t i o n depends on f i n a n c i a l i n s t i t u t i o n s l i k e t h e IMF.

The f o r e g o i n g c o n s i d e r a t i o n s assume even inc reased v a l i d i t y i n the l i g h t o f t h e IMF1s growing emergence as an i n t e r n a t i o n a l c e n t r a l bank ^/. I t s t a s k i s no longer con f ined t o t h e s u p e r v i s i o n o f a f i x e d exchange r a t e regime. I t i s concerned w i t h i n t e r n a t i o n a l economic management and t h e " f i r m s u r v e i l l a n c e " o f economies o f member c o u n t r i e s and t h e onus i s now c a s t on these c o u n t r i e s f o r r e g u l a r c o n s u l t a t i o n s . Over and above the t r a d i t i o n a l c r e d i t t ranches the IMF has now an a r r a y o f i ns t ruments f o r r e - c y c l i n g o f f i n a n c i a l su rp luses , swap arrangements l i k e the General Agreements t o Borrow, and i n f o r m a l c o n s u l t - a t i v e systems w i t h a network o f the most power fu l bank ing i n s t i t u t i o n s i n t h e w o r l d . It i s t h e r e f o r e r i g h t and p roper t h a t the IMF moves a l s o i n t h e d i r e c t i o n o f work ing w i t h the T h i r d World c o u n t r i e s i n t h e i r own p a r t i c u l a r concerns on i ssues l i k e inc reased i n t r a - t r a d e w i t h i n t h e T h i r d Wor ld, t h e c r e a t i o n o f j o b s f o r t h e massive unemployed l a b o u r f o r c e s and so on. The T r u s t Fund o f t h e IMF i s a s t e p i n the r i g h t d i r e c t i o n , b u t i t i s t o o r e s t r i c t e d i n i t s scope. I t i s the c o n t e n t i o n o f t h i s paper t h a t the IMF uses i t s g o l d s t o c k as an i n i t i a l s t e p i n t h e d i r e c t i o n o f t h e achievement o f these new o b j e c t i v e s . A b r i e f examina t ion o f t h e p resen t arrangement f o r g o l d i s i n o r d e r i n v iew o f the proposals s e t o u t be low.

The IMF Gold S tock

The arrangements w i t h r e g a r d t o t h e p resen t r o l e o f g o l d i n t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l monetary system a r e d e r i v e d f rom agreements reached by t h e I n t e r i m Committee o f t h e Board o f Governors o f t h e IMF. A t i t s mee t ing i n Jamaica i n January 1976, v a r i o u s aspects o f t h e imp lementa t ion o f the arrangements were worked o u t i n d e t a i l . The e f f e c t i v e outcome o f these d e c i s i o n s was t o a b o l i s h t h e o f f i c i a l p r i c e o f g o l d and the o b l i g a t i o n o f Fund members t o use g o l d as p a r t o f t h e i r u o t a s u b s c r i p t i o n . Under the agreements, o n e - t h i r d o f the Fund's g o l d s f would be d isposed o f , o f which one-ha l f would be ' r e s t i t u t e d ' t o IMF members i n accordance w i t h t h e i r quotas, and o n e - h a l f s o l d f o r the b e n e f i t o f t h e T h i r d World c o u n t r i e s .

2/ See a v e r y good a r t i c l e by Anthony Scaperlanda on "The IMF: An Emerging Cen t ra l Bankl'KyKy& (Val .31-1978: 4 ) , pp. 679-690

The reasons f o r these d e c i s i o n s , and the r a t i o n a l e f o r phasing o u t g o l d as a c e n t r a l r e s e r v e a s s e t of the i n t e r n a t i o n a l monerary system need n o t concern us he re , excep t t o the e x t e n t o f t h e i r d i r e c t e f f e c t s on t h e economic w e l l - b e i n g o f the T h i r d Wor ld c o u n t r i e s . I n t h e c o n t e x t o f t h e arrangements made f o r t h e phasing o u t o f g o l d as an i n t e r n a t i o n a l r e s e r v e a s s e t , i t was agreed t h a t t h e poor c o u n t r i e s shou ld r e c e i v e some p a r t o f t h e b e n e f i t s t h a t m i g h t be genera ted by the a b o l i t i o n o f the o f f i c i a l p r i c e o f g o l d . The go ld s t o c k o f t h e IMF amounted t o 150 m i l l i o n ounces and a t the o f f i c i a l p r i c e o f 35 SDR p e r ounce (JSS 42) t h e s t o c k was va lued a t US$ 6.7 b i l l i o n . A t the then p r e v a i l i n g market p r i c e o f US$ 140 p e r ounce, the g o l d s t o c k was 3 .3 t imes the v a l u e determined a t t h e o f f i c i a l p r i c e , and t h e t o t a l s t o c k c o u l d be va lued a t US$ 22 b i l l i o n .

The IMF g o l d s t o c k , however, i s o n l y a f r a c t i o n o f t h e t o t a l i n t e r n a t i o n a l monetary reserves h e l d i n g o l d . As o f May 1975, t h e o f f i c i a l g o l d h o l d i n g s o f the v a r i o u s member c o u n t r i e s o f the IMF a t the o f f i c i a l p r i c e o f 35 SDR p e r ounce were w o r t h US$ 44 b i l l i o n . Th is enormous accumulat ion o f g o l d b e n e f i t e d immed ia te l y f rom t h e a b o l i t i o n o f the o f f i c i a l p r i c e and the r e - e v a l u a t i o n which subsequent ly occur red i n terms o f market p r i c e s . Not a11 member c o u n t r i e s o f the IMF had s i g n i f i c a n t g o l d reserves on t h e i r own account and the i n e q u i t y o f these arrangements f o r t h e T h i r d World shou ld be seen i n t h i s l i g h t . The Group o f Ten, p lus S w i t z e r l a n d , had over US$ 37 b i l l i o n o f g o l d va lued a t the o f f i c i a l p r i c e , w h i l e a11 t h e rema in ing n a t i o n s i n t h e IMF owned US$ 7 b i l l i o n wor th . The l a t t e r group, i n v iew o f the c o n v e r t i b i l i t y o f the c u r r e n c i e s o f t h e Group o f Ten, p l u s S w i t z e r l a n d , h e l d n e a r l y 90 pe rcen t o f t h e i r i n t e r n a t i o n a l monetary reserves i n t h e fo rm o f c o n v e r t i b l e c u r r e n c i e s i . e . m a i n l y t h e c u r r e n c i e s o f the Group o f Ten, p l u s S w i t z e r l a n d ) . The f i g u r e s a r e . w h i l e the Group o f Ten, p l u s S w i t z e r l a n d , h e l d US$ 70 b i l l i o n i n f o r e i g n ex- chanae, a l l t h e rema in ing c o u n t r i e s had an a lmos t equal amount, i . e . US$ 68 b i l l i o n i n f o r e i g n exchange. Th is c o n t r a s t s w i t h t h e US$ 7 b i l l i o n h e l d i n g o l d . These f i g u r e s prove t h a t t h e g o l d p r i c e boom r e a l l y b e n e f i t e d those who had t h e g o l d w h i l e those who h e l d f o r e i g n exchange i n c o n v e r t i b l e c u r r e n c i e s were a b r u p t l y t o l d t h a t t h e i r c la ims f o r g o l d a t 35 SDR p e r ounce were no l o n g e r t o be honoured. No wonder t h a t t h e f o r m e r Secre ta ry o f Treasury o f t h e U.S.A., Mr. Henry H. Fowler expressed h i s grave apprehension i n no u n c e r t a i n manner: "To assen t t o any arrangement t h a t would work a g r ievous i n e q u i t y on those c e n t r a l banks who h o l d o u r d o l l a r s r e s u l t i n g f rom US balance o f payment d e f i c i t s r a t h e r than p r e s e n t them t o t h e Federate Reserve window i n exchange f o r g o l d i s n o t wor thy of a g r e a t n a t i o n . Th is i s p a r t i c u l a r l y t r u e when the U n i t e d S ta tes would i t s e l f s tand t o reap t h e g r e a t e s t monetary p r o f i t f rom t h i s i n e q u i t a b l e arrangement s i n c e i t s g o l d reserves a r e t h e 1 a r g e s t . ":!I

The i n t e r n a t i o n a l monetary system i s p robab ly t h e thouges t n u t f o r the T h i r d World t o c rack i n t h e NIEO n e g o t i a t i o n s . The Group o f Ten c a l l s t h e tune

3/ The IMF Gold Agreement - Hear ing b e f o r e t h e Subcommittee on I n t e r n a t i o n a l - tconomies o f t h e J o i n t Economic Committee - Congress o f the U n i t e d S t a t e s (US Government P r i n t i n g O f f i c e , Washington, 1976) . I have r e l i e d on t h i s document f o r t h e f i g u r e s con ta ined i n t h i s s e c t i o n and f o r e x t r a c t s f rom s ta tements o f Mr. Fow le r and P r o f . Machlup. T h i s document i s e s s e n t i a l r e a d i n g f o r ev idence o f t h e e x t e n t t o which T h i r d World i n t e r e s t s were over looked i n t h e 1975/1976 monetary n e g o t i a t i o n s .

and t h e Group o f 24 o b t a i n s a few crumbs t o keep t h e i r economies a l i v e . On 30 August 1975, t h e Group o f 24 r e p r e s e n t i n g t h e T h i r d World i s s u e d i t s own communique c a l l i n g f o r " p o l i c i e s des igned t o ensure t h e gradual r e d u c t i o n o f the r o l e o f g o l d i n t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l monetary system and t h e s t r e n g t h e n i n g o f t h e r o l e o f t h e SDR." M i n i s t e r s a l s o a f f i r m e d t h a t no arrangements w i t h r e g a r d t o g o l d would be accep tab le t o t h e T h i r d World un less they met the above p r i n c i p l e s and a l s o un less ,

a ) they were designed t o r a i s e s u b s t a n t i a l l y t h e f l o w o f f i n a n c i a l resources t o the deve lop ing c o u n t r i e s w i t h o u t imposing a l o s s on any i n d i v i d u a l deve lop ing country ;

' b ) they d i d n o t accentuate the a l r e a d y i n e q u i t a b l e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f i n t e r n - a t i o n a l l i q u i d i t y . "

I n t h i s c o n t e x t , M i n i s t e r s agreed t h a t t h e r e was a need t o e x p e d i t e the s tudy o f a g o l d s u b s t i t u t i o n accoun t . "

The G 24 Communique o f t h r e e years l a t e r , i ssued on 22 September 1978, makes no ment ion o f g o l d o r the g o l d s u b s t i t u t i o n account though t h e problems a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the phasing o u t o f g o l d c o u l d s t i l l be c e n t r a l t o t h e development p rocess . The reasons f o r i g n o r i n g the i s s u e - p robab ly the concession t o c r e a t e 1 b i l l i o n SDRs over t h r e e years - a r e n o t s e l f - e v i d e n t f rom t h e i communique.-'

The T h i r d World i n r e c o g n i t i o n o f t h e i r acquiescence w i t h t h e 1975/1976 arrangements l e a d i n g t o t.he Second Amendment o f t h e IMF A r t i c l e s was a l l owed the p r o f i t s f rom the s a l e o f o n e - s i x t h (25 m i l l i o n ounces) o f t h e IMF g o l d s t o c k , d i sbursed through the T r u s t Fund a d m i n i s t e r e d by the IMF over a p e r i o d o f f o u r years . I n May 1978, the Fund passed the m i d - p o i n t i n i t s f o u r years g o l d sa les program and d u r i n g t h e p e r i o d o f two years s i n c e these s a l e s s t a r t e d 12.5 m i l l i o n ounces were s o l d f o r t h e b e n e f i t o f T h i r d World c o u n t r i e s . The p r o f i t s t o t a l l e d US$ 1,306 b i l l i o n . Of t h i s amount $ 362.6 m i l l i o n were d i s t r i b u t e d d i r e c t l y t o 104 e l i g i b l e T h i r d World member c o u n t r i e s , and t h e balance amount o f a l i t t l e more than US$ 1 b i l l i o n was d i s t r i b u t e d th rough the T r u s t Fund on concessional terms t o 43 o f t h e p o o r e s t IMF members ( t h e number o f e l i g i b l e members over t h e second two y e a r p e r i o d o f t h e g o l d sa les program number 59)-"" . I t would be p e r t i n e n t a t t h i s p o i n t t o i n q u i r e i n t o t h e a c t u a l movement o f the marke t p r i c e o f g o l d s i n c e t h e above d e c i s i o n s were taken, as even g r e a t e r d isadvantages c o n t i n u e t o accumulate f o r t h e T h i r d World.

The open market p r i c e o f g o l d has moved c o n t i n o u s l y upwards and a t the t ime o f w r i t i n g one ounce i s quoted a t ove r US$ 240. Th is c o n t r a s t s w i t h the average s a l e p r i c e o f t h e IMF g o l d s a l e s programme i n the f i r s t two y e a r s o f US$ 150. It i s t o be expected t h a t the second phase would b r i n g i n p r o f i t s f o r T r u s t Fund l o a n d isbursements o f w e l l o v e r t h e f i g u r e o f US$ 1 b i l l i o n o f

4/ See i ssues o f IMF Survey f o r Communiques o f the Group o f 24 -

5/ See i ssues o f I M F Survey f o r p rog ress o f g o l d s a l e s program and T r u s t Fund - o p e r a t i o n s

phase I . In the meantime, in addit ion to the massive p ro f i t s generated by the r ich countries on t h e i r own national monetary author i ty gold holdings, nearly 10 mill ion of the 12.5 mill ion ounces sold by the IMF a t the former o f f i c i a l pr ice would a l so have accrued to these countries and an equal quant- i t y i s expected to pass on t o t h e i r hands over the next two years . A t present market p r i c e s , and over the f u l l four yea r s , the national gain of these few countr ies would be nearly US$ 4 b i l l i o n by the t r a n s f e r of one-sixth of t he IMF gold sock in accordance with quotas of member countr ies . The benef ic iar ies of even the gold sa l e s program of the IMF a r e not the Third World countr ies but the rich member countries of the IMF. Prof. F r i t z Machlup, an eminent American monetary economist, in 1975 i t s e l f commented on the grave i n j u s t i c e of these arrangements:

T h e gold holdings of the 14 most-developed countries amount t o US$ 36 b i l l i on a t the present o f f i c i a l valuation. Hence, the gain accruing t o these 14 countries . . . would be about US$ 83 b i l l i o n ca lcula ted on the basis of l a s t week's market pr ice of gold of US$ 140 per ounce. To the $ 83 b i l l i o n we may have to add the value of these coun t r i e s ' share i n the 25 mill ion ounces of gold to be r e s t i t u t e d .. . Hence, counting only the share going t o the indust r ia l countries about US$ 3 b i l l i o n , we may put the increment in the gold holdings of these 14 countries a t US$ 86 b i l l i o n . If the same market pr ice of US$ 140 can be a t t a ined f o r the other 25 mi l l ion ounces t o be sold by the Fund ' f o r the benef i t of developing countr ies ' the cash proceeds would be of US$ 3.5 b i l l i o n and the p r o f i t l e s s than US$ 2.5 b i l l i o n . This sum a l lo t ed t o developing countries compares with the gain of US$ 86 b i l l i o n going t o the 14 individual countr ies . These 14 countries would pocket, therefore , more than 34 times the p ro f i t d i s t r i bu ted t o the developing countries . "

Contrary t o the above fo recas t , the r e a l i t y has been even worse f o r the Third World. The present pr ice of gold a t US$ 240 an ounce would indica te t h a t the 14 highly developed countries a r e more than 50 times be t t e r off ra ther than 34 t imes. Countries l i k e I t a l y have ra ised loans with gold as co l l a t e r a l valued a t the i n f l a t ed market prices and France values i t s gold a t the market pr ice . No longer i s the benef i t of the gold pr ice increase a notional one.

I t i s not the purpose of t h i s paper t o assess the attempts made so f a r , and of t h e i r success o r f a i l u r e t o phase out gold as a principal reserve a s s e t . What i s conclusive from the foregoing analys is i s t h a t the abo l i t i on of the o f f i c i a l pr ice of gold and the arrangements made to phase out gold have r e s u l t - ed in a major d i s t r i bu t ion of gains in favour of the r i ch countr ies , and in p a r t i c u l a r , a handful of them. I t i s imperative t h a t the Third World and the IMF evaluate once again the present arrangements and o f f e r a s e t of more equi table proposals f o r the disposal of the 100 mill ion ounces of gold which would remain with the IMF in 1980 a f t e r the disposal of one-third of the gold stock. A t present market p r i ce s , t h i s residual gold stock could be worth US$ 24 b i l l i o n . We a re not concerned in t h i s context with the proposals fo r a gold subs t i t u t ion account f o r conversion of o f f i c i a l l y held gold of IMF member countries in to SDRs. However, i t should not be forgot ten t h a t the Third World countries should have a share in the capi ta l gains of t ha t

s i t u a t i o n too.- ' But the p r o p o s i t i o n t h a t the IMF g o l d s tock shou ld he s o l e l y u t i l i s e d i n t h e i n t e r e s t o f and f o r t h e e x c l u s i v e b e n e f i t o f the T h i r d World, and i n p a r t i c u l a r , t h e lower-income c o u n t r i e s has g r e a t e r v a l i d i t y t h e n ever b e f o r e .

Recent developments s t r e n g t h e n t h e moral as we11 as t h e p o l i t i c a l and economic c l a i m s o f the T h i r d Mor ld t o be s o l e b e n e f i c i a r y o f the r e s i d u a l 100 m i l l i o n ounces o f g o l d w i t h the I W . The T h i r d World shou ld cons ide r t h i s s t o c k as an a s s e t which must be u t i l i s e d t o ach ieve some o f i t s p r i m a r y demands w i t h i n t h e framework o f an NIEO, The c i rcumstances i n which t h i s g o l d s t o c k has so f a r been u t i l i s e d have l e d t o an e r o s i o n o f i t s p o t e n t i a l s t r e n g t h . Ra ther than r u n i t down by ad hoc d isbursements based on i l l - d e f i n e d fo rmu lae , t h e T h i r d World must cons ide r i t s sustenance and c o n t i n u a t i o n as an i n s t r u m e n t f o r t h e g r e a t e r c o n t r o l o f t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l economic envi ronment .

Prooosals f o r A c t i o n

I t has been p o i n t e d o u t t h a t , "as f a r as g o l d i s concerned, t h e consensus reached by the IMF I n t e r i m Committee i n August 1975 and con f i rmed i n Jamaica i n January 1976, p r o v i d e s a h i g h l y i ngen ious and accep tab le compromise between v e r y d i f f e r e n t and l e g i t i m a t e , n a t i o n a l and i n t e r n a t i o n a l concerns and o b j e c t i v e s . " ?I

Three years l a t e r t h e i n g e n u i t y o f the au thors o f t h e Agreement i s open t o doub t by t h e T h i r d Wor ld. There i s now t a l k o f " the g o l d r e v i v a l " and " n o t so h e a v i l y d i s g u i s e d , i t i s now s l i p p i n g i n th rough t h e back door . Many c e n t r a l banks a r e r e v a l u i n g t h e i r g o l d reserves and a few a r e a c t i v e l y buy ing and s e l l i n g t h e s t u f f . Most s i g n i f i c a n t o f a l l , when t h e European Monetary System (EMS) i s e v e n t u a l l y born, i t w i l l have a g i l d e d spoon i n i t s mouth." !I The IMF i s presumed t o d i s l i k e these new t rends b u t they a r e t h e p o l i t i c a l and economic r e a l i t y . The European Currency U n i t (ECU) w i l l be backed up by g o l d and t h e apparen t acceptance o f the French p o s i t i o n i n r e v a l u i n g g o l d f o r t h i s purpose a t n e a r l y marke t p r i c e s would mean t h e r e m o n e t i z a t i o n o f g o l d . . . The 1975 IMF Gold Agreement was a compromise r e c o n c i l i n g US and Fench p o s i t i o n s and the T h i r d World d i d n o t come o u t o f i t s a t i s f a c t o r i l y . New French moves and t h e ma jo r ga ins t h a t have accrued t o t h e r i c h n a t i o n s demand an u r g e n t r e - a p p r a i s a l and a new d e s i g n f o r g o l d .

See Angelos Th. Angelopoulos, Fo r a New P o l i c y of I n t e r n a t i o n a l Development (New York: Praeger , 1977) f o r r e c e n t p roposa ls f o r use of g o l d h e l d by c e n t r a l banks, r a t h e r than IMF g o l d h o l d i n g s . Angelopoulos has been a c o n s i s t e n t advo- c a t e over a l o n g p e r i o d o f u t i l i s i n g t h e inc reased v a l u e o f monetary g o l d h e l d by n a t i o n a l c e n t r a l banks i n t h e i n t e r e s t s o f t h e T h i r d World. He d i s - agrees w i t h t h e p r e s e n t p o l i c y o f IMF g o l d s a l e s and suggests t h a t " t h e T h i r d World c o u n t r i e s shou ld demand a h a l t t o these sa les , t o safeguard t h e i r i n t e r e s t s . "

See Duncan Ndegwa and Rober t T r i f f i n , The I n t e r n a t i o n a l Monetary Order i n Reshaping t h e I n t e r n a t i o n a l Order (RIO): A Repor t t o t h e Club o f Rome (1976)

"The Gold Rev iva l ", The Economist (13 January, 1979)

F o r t h e T h i r d H o r l d , b e n e f i t s f r o m d e m o n e t i z a t i o n o f g o l d have been r e s t r i c t e d t o r e l a t i v e l y s m a l l d i sbu rsemen ts ( U S $ 1 b i l l i o n i n two y e a r s ) f r o m t h e T r u s t Fund. Even i n t h e b a s i s o f p r i n c i p l e s accep ted i n 1975, t h e T h i r d Wor ld c o u n t r i e s , p a r t i c u l a r l y t h o s e w i t h an income o f SDR 300 p e r c a p i t a i n 1973 had an e n t i t l e m e n t t o n e a r l y h a l f t h e IMF g o l d s t o c k . There i s ove rwhe lm ing j u s t i f i c a t i o n t o use n o t h a l f b u t t h e e n t i r e IMF g o l d s t o c k f o r t h e b e n e f i t o f T h i r d Wor ld c o u n t r i e s i n v i e w o f r e c e n t deve lopments . T h i s q u e s t i o n i s a m a t t e r f o r i n t e r n a t i o n a l mone ta ry d ip l omacy b u t i t s p o l i t i c a l f e a s i b i l i t y need n o t be t h a t r emo te i f t h e r e i s some e q u i t y i n t h e b a r g a i n i n g p r o c e s s . Though amendments m i g h t be r e q u i r e d t o t h e IMF A r t i c l e s , t h e r e i s n o . d i r e c t c o s t t o t h e r i c h n a t i o n s i n an e x e r c i s e o f t h i s n a t u r e , and t h e r e c o u l d i n f a c t be c o n s i d e r a b l e g a i n s i f once a g a i n t h e ' i n g e n u i t y ' o f r e f o r m e r s i s matched by an equa l commitment t o i n t e r n a t i o n a l economic s t a b i l i t y i n t h e medium te rm .

The IMF r e s i d u a l g o l d s t o c k o f 100 m i l l i o n ounces i s w o r t h , a t c u r r e n t m a r k e t p r i c e , U S $ 240 b i l l i o n . ( P r i c e s do f l u c t u a t e , b u t i t i s assumed t h a t t h e money v a l u e o f t h e g o l d s t o c k wou ld rema in a t l e a s t a t t h i s l e v e l o v e r t h e n e x t decade ) . T h i s p a p e r proposes t h a t t h e g o l d s t o c k be used f o r two m a j o r purposes:

The e s t a b l i s h m e n t o f a new c r e d i t f a c i l i t y i n t h e IMF w i t h access t o i t f o r t h e low- income c o u n t r i e s t h a t p r e s e n t l y have access t o t h e T r u s t Fund. H a l f o f t h e g o l d s t o c k c o u l d be used f o r t h i s purpose. B a s i c human needs c o n d i t i o n a l i t y w o u l d have t o be met f o r access t o t h i s f a c i l i t y .

The c r e a t i o n o f a new Cur rency U n i t backed 100 p e r c e n t by g o l d , w h i c h w o u l d b e a v a i l a b l e f o r payment w i t h i n t h e T h i r d Wor ld o n l y . The i n i t i a l d i s b u r s e m e n t w o u l d be t o t h e low- income c o u n t r i e s , e l i g i b l e a c c o r d i n g t o T r u s t Fund c r i t e r i a .

A New IMF C r e d i t F a c i l i t y -

B a s i c human needs i n t h e T h i r d Wor ld i s a c e n t r a l i s s u e i n deve lopment o v e r t h e n e x t decade b u t p r e s e n t IMF p o l i c i e s a r e n o t e x a c t l y conduc i ve t o i t s ach ievemen t . The re i s a p o s i t i v e c o r r e l a t i o n between economic g r o w t h and b a s i c needs, b u t i t i s necessa ry t o e s t a b l i s h c l o s e r l i n k a g e s between i n v e s t m e n t f o r g r o w t h and i n v e s t m e n t f o r t h e r e l i e f o f p o v e r t y . The d i s t i n c t i o n between i n v e s t m e n t and r e c u r r e n t e x p e n d i t u r e s i s b l u r r e d when t h e o b j e c t i v e i s g r o w t h i n , f o r example , t h e i n f o r m a l s e c t o r .

The s t r a i n s o f t h e f o r e i g n exchange o f c o u n t r i e s p u r s u i n g b a s i c human needs s t r a t e g y have t o be r e 1 i e v e d by access t o c r e d i t s w i t h o u t c o n d i t i o n a l i t y , and i n low- income c o u n t r i e s w h i c h a r e p r e s e n t l y a v e r s e t o a b a s i c human needs s t r a t e g y , access t o c r e d i t c o n d i t i o n e d on such pu rpose w o u l d p romo te i t s accep tance . F o r t h e T h i r d Wor ld as a who le , and f o r t h e s p e c i f i c p r o v i s i o n o f b a s i c human needs , t h e IMF c o u l d have exemp t i on c l a u s e s on t h e e x i s t i n g f a c i l i t i e s r e l a t e d t o i n d i c a t o r s i t works on ( p u b l i c e x p e n d i t u r e t a r g e t s c o u l d exempt t h o s e i t e m s d i r e c t e d a t t h e mos t p o o r and f o o d s u b s i d i e s c o u l d be c o n s i d e r e d an a c c e p t a b l e measure f o r t h o s e l i v i n g an a b s o l u t e p o v e r t y and so o n ) .

I t i s proposed t h a t the Basic human needs f a c i l i t y cou ld be USS 12 b i l l i o n o r h a l f o f t h e v a l u e o f t h e g o l d s tock . I t cou ld be s t a r t e d w i t h l e s s , b u t i n c r e a - sed ve ry r a p i d l y t o i t s maximum l i m i t . I f US$ 12 b i l l i o n , t h i s would p r o b a b l y mean a n e a r l y 100;; i nc rease over p r e s e n t l e v e l s o f access t o IMF c r e d i t s f o r t h e low-income c o u n t r i e s . These arrangements r a i s e a ma jo r q u e s t i o n : How would t h e g o l d s t o c k be conver ted i n t o some accep tab le fo rm o f cu r rency t o p r o v i d e these c r e d i t s ? Th is cou ld be done i n severa l ways, among which t h e f o l l o w i n g : ( 1 ) n e g o t i a t i n g w i t h t h e r i c h n a t i o n s , 'swap' f a c i l i t i e s between t h e i r c u r r e n c i e s and g o l d , ( 2 ) t h e s a l e o f g o l d when marke t p r i c e s a re r e a l l y f a v o u r a b l e , u n l i k e the p resen t g o l d s a l e s program and ( 3 ) bo r row ing f rom t h e commercial banks w i t h g o l d as c o l l a t e r a l . I n t h e l a t t e r case an i n t e r e s t subs idy account m i g h t have t o be cons ide red dependent on t h e e x t e n t o f c o n c e s s i o n a l i t y o f the r e q u i r e d l e n d i n g . There a r e f e a t u r e s i n t h i s proposed arrangement which make i t somewhat i d e n t i c a l t o t h e T r u s t Fund. The ma jo r d i f f e r e n c e s would be i n i t s magnitude, and the g e n e r a t i o n o f resources o t h e r than th rough g o l d s a l e s . The impact w i t h i n a 10-year development s t r a t e g y would be t h a t much g r e a t e r .

A Currency U n i t f o r the T h i r d World

T h i r d World c o u n t r i e s have l i t t l e c o n t r o l ove r t h e w o r l d t r a d e and payments system. Spec ia l Drawing R i g h t s a r e i ssued i n a manner t h a t t h r e e - f o u r t h s go t o t h e r i c h c o u n t r i e s . I n the l a s t t h r e e y e a r s the T h i r d World p o s i t i o n has s t e a d i l y d e c l i n e d as t h e r i c h n a t i o n s f i n a n c e d t h e i r d e f i c i t s by i n f l a t i o n a r y i ssues o f t h e i r n a t i o n a l c u r r e n c i e s . The European Currency U n i t i s t o be c r e a t e d backed by g o l d adding f u r t h e r t o i n t e r n a t i o n a l l i q u i d i t y .

The T h i r d World f o r reasons we s h a l l n o t ana lyse here would w ish t o i nc rease t h e i r t r a d e among themselves, and g r e a t e r access t o T h i r d World c o u n t r i e s i n t o each o t h e r s ' markets , m i g h t r e l i e v e emerging problems f o r t h e i n d u s t r i a l i z e d c o u n t r i e s . T h i r d Wor ld c u r r e n c y t o promote t r a d e w i t h i n t h e T h i r d World has been proposed e lsewhere . The proposal i s t o c r e a t e a l i t t l e o v e r US$ 2.5 b i l l i o n o f New Currency U n i t s as a p r o p o r t i o n o f the t o t a l va lue o f t h e t r a d e i n manufactures w i t h i n t h e T h i r d Wor ld. The use o f the cu r rency was t o be r e s t r i c t e d t o pu r - chases o f manufactures. The proposal now p resen ted c o n t a i n s f e a t u r e s t h a t shou ld make i t more a t t r a c t i v e a s an i n t e r n a t i o n a l cu r rency , which was a s u b s t a n t i a l o b s t a c l e i n t h e e a r l i e r p roposa l .

H a l f o f t h e g o l d s t o c k o f t h e IMF, va lued a t US$ 12 b i l l i o n c o u l d p r o v i d e t h e g o l d back ing f o r t h e new cu r rency i n 10 years t ime ( o r a s u i t a b l e medium- te rm t i m e span) by which t i m e i t i s expected the new u n i t would have emerged as an accep tab le cu r rency i n i n t e r n a t i o n a l tender . Wi th 100 p e r c e n t g o l d back ing t h e new cu r rency i s s u e would be r e s t r i c t e d t o US$ 12 b i l l i o n . I t would be i s s u e d t o t h e low-income c o u n t r i e s (as d e f i n e d f o r T r u s t Fund purposes) i n t h e f i r s t i n s t a n c e . To t h a t e x t e n t t h e r e would be an i n i t i a l t r a n s f e r o f resources t o those c o u n t r i e s . T h e r e a f t e r t h e cu r rency c o u l d be a v a i l a b l e f o r use by any T h i r d World coun t ry and i t s v a l i d i t y need n o t be r e s t r i c t e d t o manufactures, t h o u g h - c e r t a i n commodit ies c o u l d be exc luded. As one of the

9/ Frances and Michael S tewar t , r rade Between Developing C o u n t r i e s : Propos$ - f o r a New Currency (UNCTAD, Mimeo)

m a j o r o b j e c t i v e s o f a new c u r r e n c y i s t o promote t r a d e w i t h i n t h e T h i r d Wor ld , t h e t r a n s a c t i o n s t o w h i c h i t i s a p p l i e d s h o u l d be c a r e f u l l y worked o u t . To i l l u s t r a t e , payments f o r s h i p p i n g s e r v i c e s may be a r e l e v a n t i t e m , t h e r e b y a s s i s t i n g i n t h e i n c r e a s e o f merchan t s h i p p i n g c a p a c i t y w i t h i n t h e T h i r d Wor ld . The more i n d u s t r i a l i z e d c o u n t r i e s w i t h i n t h e T h i r d Wor ld s h o u l d f i n d t h e c u r r e n c y an a t t r a c t i v e i n s t r u m e n t t o i n c r e a s e t h e i r t r a d e s p e c i f i c a l l y i n t h e c o n t e x t o f u n d e r u t i l i z e d i n d u s t r i a l c a p a c i t y .

The IMF w o u l d be t h e i s s u i n g a u t h o r i t y f o r t h e c u r r e n c y . T h i s a l o n e wou ld ensu re i t s r e a d y accep tance and i t s h o u l d be i n a p o s i t i o n t o e a r n i n t e r e s t l i k e any o t h e r r e s e r v e c u r r e n c y . I t need n o t be a r e q u i r e m e n t t h a t i t s h o u l d be used o n l y by c e n t r a l banks, l i k e SDRs and t h e proposed ECU, i n t h e d i f f e r e n t c o n t e x t o f t h e T h i r d Wor ld , w i t h i t s m a i n l y n o n - c o n v e r t i b l e c u r r e n c i e s and exchange r e s t r i c t i o n s .

The IMF w o u l d have i t s r e s e r v a t i o n s on t h e use o f g o l d t o c r e a t e a new c u r r e n c y . Bu t g o l d has p a r t i c u l a r a t t r a c t i o n as a m i d w i f e a t t h e b i r t h o f new c u r r e n c i e s . However, t h e use o f g o l d wou ld be f o r a l i m i t e d d u r a t i o n o f t e n y e a r s . It wou ld a l s o n o t be a f r e e l y c o n v e r t i b l e c u r r e n c y , b e i n g a c u r r e n c y f o r use o n l y w i t h i n t n e T h i r d U o r l d . The IMF has n o t a c t i v e l y opposed t h e ECU and t h i s w o u l d t h e r e f o r e c o n s t i t u t e an a p p r o p r i a t e p r e c e d e n t . The o b j e c t i v e s t o be a c h i e v e d f r o m t h e new c u r r e n c y a r e c o n s i s t e n t w i t h IMF p r i n c i p l e s and p o l i c i e s f o r t h e e x p a n s i o n o f i n t e r n a t i o r i a l t r a d e . The IMF has been t o o c l o s e l y a s s o c i a t e d i n i t s o p e r a t i o n s w i t h t h e i n t e r e s t s o f t h e r i c h n a t i o n s and t h e i r b a n k i n g s e c t o r , o a r t i c u l a r l y i n r e c e n t y e a r s . The i m p l e m e n t a t i o n of a p r o p o s a l o f t h e n a t u r e o u t l i n e s above wou ld p r o b a b l y imp rove i t s imaqe i n t h e T h i r d Wor ld as a t r u l y i n t e r n a t , i o n a l o r g a n i z a t i o n a n d and o f f s e t any i n h e r e n t b i a s i n t h e e x i s t i n g sys tem.

I t must be s t r e s s e d , i n c o n c l u s i o n , t h a t t h e p r o p o s a l s made above a r e t e n t a t i v e and i n o u t l i n e , ana t h e i r i m p l i c a t i o n s have t o be worked o u t i n more d e t a i l . B u t t h e ma in t h r u s t o f t h e c o n t e n t i o n s h o u l d be i n no d o u b t . There i s an IMF g o l d s t o c k o f U S $ 24 b i l l i o n l y i n g i d d l e and wh i ch c o u l d be used i n t h e 1 9 8 0 ' s t o b e n e f i t t h e T h i r d U o r l d . Even i f c o n v e n t i o n a l mechanisms a r e used, r e s o u r c e s c o u l d be r a i s e d f r o m t h e b a n k i n g sys tem, w i t h g o l d as c o l l a t e r a l , f o r t r a n s f e r t o p o o r e r c o u n t r i e s t h r o u g h e x i s t i n g i n s t i t u t i o n s l i k e t h e Wor ld Bank, Reg iona l Banks and IFAD. The way t h e g o l d s t o c k i s a d m i n i s t e r e d a t p r e s e n t l e a d s o n l y t o a mere t r i c k l e o f such r e s o u r c e s r e a c h i n g t h e p o o r coun- t r i e s . The T h i r d Wor ld s h o u l d s e t i t s t a r g e t s h i g h e r and e x p l o i t t h e l a t e n t p o t e n t i a l i n t h e IMF g o l d s t o c k w i t h i n a more comprehens ive programme.

MARKINGS

U N I T Y FOR A NEW ORDER 11 by Julius K . Nyerere -

The Agenda of your Conference is very long; it deals with very important matters. Many technical questions are involved, in which details and percentages can mean the difference between the usefulness or otherwise of a proposal or suggested negotiating position. And these details are the reality of working for a New International Economic Order; unless careful attention is given to them (especially by those entrusted with negotiating power) the Third World demands are mere rhetoric.

But there is also a danger in details. When a Third World negotiator has, after exhausting hours of argument, pushed the other side of the table from 30% to 45% he will feel a sense of achievement, and urge acceptance upon his colleagues. We should all sympathise! I am not a military man. But I am told that an Army Commander looks at a platoon's advance in the light of its effect on the total battle front. If that advance can be held without cost, or can oe used to harrass the opposing forces-fine ! But if it exposes his troops pointlessly, or weakens the general strategy, then he congratulates the Platoon Commander and his men, and tells them to withdraw again.

1 '~ddress by President Julius K . Nyerere to t h e Ministerial Conference of the Group of 77 - Arusha, 1 2 February 1979

At this Conference you will be looking at the details of past and present negotiations in relation to the aim of securing fundamental changes in the present International Economic Order. I do not propose to comment! The delegates here are much better equipped than I am to assess the negotiations about a Common Fund, changes in the power structure of world financial institutions, tariff and other restrictions on Third World trade, and so on. All that I intend to do is to share with you some thoughts about the future.

Our need for one voice:

The Group of 77 developed out of a felt need for the Third World to speak with one voice at UNCTAD Confe- rences and other meetings concerned with world economic matters. It was our separate weakness which impelled us towards mult ilat era1 consultations, and which has caused forty more nations to join Group of 77 Meetings since Algiers in 1967. Whatever the economic philosophy of our nations, we had all found that individual efforts to develop our own national economy kept running into a solid wall of power-the power of the rich nations and the rich transnational corporations.

Newly de-colonised nations, and the older countries of Latin America, had all inherited the same idea from the dominant Euro-American culture : work hard and you will become prosperous. Gradually we all discovered that hard work and prosperity were not cause and effect; something external to ourselves always seemed to break the reputed connection! The so-called neutrality of the world market place turned out to bo a neutrality between the exploiter and the exploited, between a bird of prey and its victim. If in our effort to find resources for survival- let alone development-w e carried out the textbook procedures for raising capital, we always seemed to end up under the virtual control of the transnational ccrporations or subject to I.M.F. deflationary policies-or both. We did not achieve progress ; we simply moved from the frying pan into the deep-freezer! Even if we tried to do nothing

2

except sell our traditional exports and buy our traditional imports, we found that we could buy less and less with more and more of our hard work.

So we came together in order to negotiate with the industrialised states for changes in the laws and practices of world exchange and finance. The present system has been developed by the industrialised states to serve their purposes. This is a matter of historical fact, not a moral judgement! The result is that the group of industrialised nations-which do act as a group when dealing with outsiders-control the levers of international exchange and finance, and also control the wealth accumulated through centuries of colonialism, gun-boat diplomacy, and an initial advantage in mass production techniques. Once again I am stating facts, not making moral judgements. If morality enters into the matter-as I believe it does-it refers to the future. For we, the Third World, are now demanding that the systems which make the rich richer and the poor poorer must be changed to keep pace with other changes in the world- the ending of colonialism, the advance of technology, and mankind's new consciousness of human equality and human dignity.

We make this demand, as the Third World, in full awareness of certain basic facts, and because of them. 70 % of the world's population-the Third World-commands together no more than 12 % of the Gross World Product. 80 % of the world's trade and investment, 93 % of its industry, and almost 100 % of its research is controlled-in the words of Barbara Ward-by the industrial rich. The income gap is getting wider, even between the industrialised and the so-called 'higher-income' Third World countries. The Third World still does most of its trade with the developed nations; its transport links are predominantly with the developed world; the technology it uses is technology developed by and for the developed world-which also controls its use.

A Unity of Nationalisms : In other words, the Third World nations did not shape the

world's institutions of production and exchange and have virtually no say in them. But we are dominated by them.

3

It is this domination by forces over which we have no control that each one of us has rejected. And our coming together in the Group of 77 has the purpose of enabling us to deal on terms of greater equality with an existing Centre of Power. Ours is basically a unity of opposition. And it is a unity of nationalisms.

For it was our separate nationalisms which caused us to come together, not the ideals of human brotherhood, or human equality, or love for each other. The immediate reason for each nation joining the Group of 77 depended on the point at which it had experienced the economic frustra- tions of power external to itself. Whether it wanted to "be developed", or "be industrialised", or "to overcome poverty", or even just to be able to operate as an independent nation, it wanted to do that thing while remaining African, Latin American, or Asian-and within those groups, Tanza- nian, Argentinian or Malaysian. It was practical experience of the fact that legal independence did not mean economic freedom which made most of us think in terms of co-operating with others similarly placed.

I stress the fact that it was our nationalism which has forced us together because we have to understand ourselves in order to achieve our purposes. The Group of 77 does not share an ideology. Some of us are avowedly "Scientific" Socialists, some just plain socialist, some capitalist, some theocratic, and some fascist! We are not necessarily friendly with each other-some countries represented here are currently engaged in a war with each other. Our National Income per head varies from about $ 100 a year to $ 2,000 a year. Some of us have minerals, some do not; some of us are landlocked and others are isolated in huge oceans. The Group of 77 cannot be defined by any of these or any other economic, social, or ideological categories- membership cuts across them all.

The immediate interests, and the negotiating priorities, of different Group of 77 members are therefore very different. Consequently, there is a tendency for sub-groups to develop within the Group of 77. We have OPEC, the Most Seri-

4

ously Affected, the Least Developed, the Newly Industriali- sed Countries, the Landlocked, and so on; sometimes these classifications are made by us and sometimes by others but accepted by us for working purposes. For this kind of sub-division of the Group of 77 can be useful; it enables us to carry on particular detailed negotiations with the industrialised countries, and it also helps us to ensure that all interests within the Group of 77 are covered in the working out of our general strategy.

But this kind of sub-division is also very dangerous. Sub-groups inevitably develop their own internal accommo- dations and their own sense of unity-which can become a unity against the other sub-groups rather than with them against the existing world order. When this happens it becomes difficult to use a negotiating advantage in one area to make a break-through in an area where the advantage is with the other side of the table. "Divide and Rule" is an old technique of domination; the developed nations are not unaware of its usefulness.

The unity in our diversity:

But our diversity exists in the context of one common and over-riding experience. What we have in common is that we are all, in relation to the developed world, dependent-not interdependent-nations. Each of our economies has developed as a by-product and a subsidiary of development in the industrialised North, and is externally oriented. We are not the prime movers of our own destiny. We are ashamed to admit it; but economically we are dependencies -semi-colonies at best -not sovereign states.

This is true for every one of us represented here. The members of OPEC united and set the price of oil in 1973. This historic action shook the world, greatly improved the bargaining power of the oil exporting countries and encouraged other primary producers. But since then OPEC has learned, and we have all learned once again, that however powerful it is, a single trade union which only

5

covers one section of a total enterprise cannot change the fundamental relationship between Employers and Employees.

Then there are the Third World giants-India, Indonesia and Brazil. If these three countries, representing about 900 million people, were to separate themselves from other Third World countries and speak as one, they would still not be able to escape from the reality of domination by the group of developed countries-at best they could get marginal and temporary concessions. For the reality is that the unity of even the most powerful of the sub-groups within the Third World is not sufficient to allow its members to become full actors, rather than reactors, in the world economic system. The unity of the entire Third World is necessary for the achievement of fundamental change in the present world economic arrangements.

Yet the pressures towards disunity are strong. The more advantageously placed among the Group of 77 are being flattered and wooed and offered concessions in this or that matter which is of immediate interest to them. And there are forces within every sub-group-from OPEC to the Least Privileged-which are inclined to take offers of special treatment, or special representation, and then- instead of using these as a base for further Third World advance-to lose interest in the wider struggle. Those forces have not yet won within any country, but it would be stupid to pretend that they do not exist. For they will not just disappear. We are all feeling the cold winds of a European recession, and in our desperation there is a strong temptation to look inwards to ourselves as individual nations rather than inwards to our group as a whole.

Your Excellencies: I have been saying out loud some of the things which are being said privately. I have done so because a danger can be dealt with only when it is acknowledged. And disunity would be a terrible set-back to the prospects of all of us, and would mean discarding a great potential source of power. For the diversity

6

within the Third World could be our strength rather than our weakness if we can hold to our political decision for unity in negotiation and in action.

The choice is not eitherlor:

Sometimes we politicians talk as if change in the present world economic order has t o come either through Dialogue, or through Confrontation with the rich nations. I have done this myself when talking in developed countries. For it is a kind of shorthand-a quick way of pointing out that what is true within countries is also true between countries. If there is not planned change in the old order then confrontation is inevitable, nationally and internationally. But we have gone on from there, and talked as if the Third World had to make a strategic choice bet ween negotiating and dec- laring all-out economic war on the rich states. On that basis we have become very apologetic-to our own people and to others. When participating in Dialogue we become apologetic, as if t o negotiate is somehow to surrender or to soften about the objective. And if Dialogue gets us no-where we become apologetic about confrontation, as if we were being unreasona ble-even irrational-and provoking an all-out economic war which we cannot win.

I d o not believe that is the kind of choice we face. We do not have t o chose between Dialogue and Confrontation with the rich; there is no reason why we should be apologetic a bout negotiating, ox about refusing to go on with a particular discussion and resorting to direct action. Ours is a kind of Trade Union of the Poor. Sometimes-perhaps most of the time-we will negotiate about different aspects of the demand for a New International Economic Order and settle for the best compromise we can reach at that time. Some- times, however, we may be forced t o call a strike in order t o show that certain things are no longer acceptable!

But a Trade Union is strong in proportion to its unity. And when deciding upon the acceptability or otherwise of any potential compromise we have to recognise political realities-in our case all 1 17 of them. For the Third World

does not have a strike fund, and hunger strikes are not the weapon of the starving. Asking countries like Zambia and Chile to stop exporting copper to the industrialised nations, for example, is asking them to commit suicide. Their Governments will naturally not agree to do that, and asking them to d o so would therefore be equivalent to bieaking the unity of the Third World. This weakness of ours can be exaggerated. But our conditions are well known to the developed nations; threatening talk of confrontation as an alternative to dialogue does not frighten t hem.

But it is also true that the kind of dialogue we have been conducting-at UNCTAD, Paris, Geneva, New York and everywhere else-ha s brought no fundamental changes in the world economic order. This is not to say that it has been useless. There are now groups of people, and even small nations, in the industrialised world which have realised that the present inequities cannot be allowed to continue, and that planned change is necessary in their own interests as well as ours. That is a helpful movement. But the problem remains: we have not succeeded in changing the structure of power. The world order still works against the interests of the poor.

I believe this unsatisfactory iesult from our efforts is because we have been making the mistake of acting as if negotiation is exclusively a matter of reason and morality, which has nothing t o do with the strength of theparticipants. The truth is that we need power to negotiate, just as we need power t o go on strike. So far we have been negotiating as noisy and importunate supplicants. We need to negotiate from a position of steadily increasing power.

What can we do? The basic question we should be asking ourselves now,

after years of hard talking and little progress, is this. What can we do, among ourselves, t o strengthen our position in futme negotiations?

My first answer is just what I have been saying until now. We must maintain and strengthen our unity. We must ensure that we continue to speak with one voice and that

8

none of us makes a separate bilateral or multilateral deal which weakens the overall Third World bargaining position. This will not get easier as time goes on.

In all our countries there ale groups which identify themselves with the powerful and privileged of the world and who aim only to join them-regardless of the poor in their own nation and elsewhere. In all our countries there are those who have no patience with international negotiations or agreements. In Goveinments, and as Oppositions, the Third World has reactianaiies and radicals of different gradations. If we are to maintain Third World unity we all have to work together when operating within non-Third World organisations for Third World objectives.

I do not believe this means that we must never protest about brutality, tyranny, and racism within the Third World; that would be intolerable-and it would not serve the interests of our peoples. It does mean, however, that we may have to co-operate functionally with governments which we intensely dislike and disapprove of. For the object is to complete the libeiation of the Third World countries from external domination. That is the basic meaning of the New Inteinational Economic Order. And unity is our instrument-oui only instrument-of liberation.

But we have to do more than stand united when negotiating as the Group of 77. We have to work together; our nations have to co-opexate economically. This is wheie the diversity of the Third World can be our strength also.

We have to build up trade among ourselves, and we nave to do this quite deliberately. For it will not happen through the workings of laissez faire. We each have to search out the possibilities of purchase from other Third World nations, or sale to other Third World nations.

'

We have to co-operate in establishing Third World Multinational Corporation?, owned by us and controlled by us, to seive our purposes and to remain independent of the great Transnational Corporations which now dominate

9

the world economic scene. We need Third World Shipping Lines to carly our goods, to open new links between us- and to break the strangling monopoly of the Conference Lines. We need Third World international insurance; it is absurd that our reinsurance premiums should provide capital for the industrialised woild. We need to have institutions of research and development directed at serving our needs and developing our resources. We need to planjointly- owned industries when our separate markets are too small for the economic viability of certain production processes. And it may be that we should be considering the idea of having our own Third World financial clearing institutions instead of paying each other through London, New York, or Paris.

All these things are possible on three conditions. That there is, on balance, equal benefit for all the participating Third World countries in each package of co-operation. That we treat obligations-financial or commercial-to each other as seriously as we treat those to the rich and powerful nations, or even more seriously. And that we should all give preference to Third World institutions when these compete with those of the industrialised world.

Building up Third World self-reliance, nationally and collectively, is not a mi~aculous answer to our problems. It will take time-a long time. And it will be very difficult. Certainly Tanzania is not the one to under-estimate the difficulties of this prescription: East Africa is an example of a tragic failure in Third Woild co-operation. There have been other failures, and theie may be more in the future. Yet every successful effort at co-operaticn streng- thens the whole Third World in its dealings with the developed world. We must all keep trying. And we must all encourage and give what help we can to every attempt which is made, whether it is functional or general, neigh- hourly, regional, or inter-continental. All that \ve should ask before giving our backing, is that it is a truly Third World co-operative effort, and that it is designed to strengthen the independence and the economy of Third World countries.

10

This question is on your Agenda. Economic Co-operation among Developing Countries is Item 18 ! Yet this position on the Agenda need not matter too much; co-operation among ourselves can be a feature of the discussion on almost any subject if the approach is always "what can we do among ourselves, for ourselves?". And there are corridors in this building!

Preparation for Negotiations : The final point I wish to mention is not on your Agenda

at all. But I am sometimes appalled by the handicap under which Third World negotiators enter into important meetings-either among ourselves or with others. We in Tanzania take these questions fairly seriously, yet our delegates have very little help. They get, from Tanzanian economists who have very heavy domestic responsibilities, a short Paper commenting on the major issues; they read articles in international journals; and they have the Papers which UNCTAD staffs present to us all. I believe a similar situation exists for most, if not all, Third World delegations to U.N. or North/South meetings. And with this kind of support they go to meet highly experienced people, armed with all the preparatory material done by sophisticated domestic and O.E.C.D. staffs and their computors!

Many dedicated Third World experts work for UNCTAD, and other staff members see the need for changes in the international system of exchange and finance. But UNC- TAD is, by definition, a world organization. One job of its staff is to help meetings to reach agreement. It is the job of the Third World to develop and state its own position.

The same lack of technical preparation may be hindering our efforts to expand economic co-operation among ourselves. It is at present no-one's job to search out potential areas of co-operation and present them to our overworked Ministers, and then follow up an interest. Once again, UNCTAD and other United Nations servants are helpful; we owe a lot to them. But some members of the U.N. appear to have their own feelings about U.N. secretariats serving the interests of one side-even the weaker side-in a world negotiation !

11

There is considerable suspicion about international bureaucracies and new institutions-I am not immune myself! They tend to be very expensive, especially if the staffs are paid at what are called "international standards7'- which usually means the highest wages anywhere! But it may be that the Group of 77 should be looking again at this question of whether it needs its own full-time economists and other professional people as a technical aid to the policy- makers and negotiators. I would only add that, if we decide this to be the case, then we must pay for that technical office ourselves. He who pays the piper calls the tune!

Change is a Process: Your Excellencies. As I understand it, our purpose in

the Group of 77 is to try to secure changes in the world's economic arrangements because we see these as unfair, detrimental to our interests, and indeed contrary to the interests of world stability and progress. Our goal is economic liberation, and on that goal there can be no compromise. But during the process of liberation it may sometimes be necessary to compromise; we have no desire to contract out of the world in which we live.

I have been arguing that to achieve our purposes we need to maintain and even strengthen our unity in the Group of 77, and to expand functional co-operation among ourselves. Nothing I have said is new. It can only be a reminder of well-known truths as you embark upon your labours.

For there are no miraculous answers to our problems. Changing the world order is a Process. It can be speeded; it can be directed; and it can be made less turbulent. But it will remain a process. The next UNCTAD Conference- for which you are preparing yourselves-is an event along the way. Your preparations for it should also be preparations for later stages in the process we are trying to influence.

I NTERACT I ONS

Chakravar th i Raghavan

TOWARDS A NEW INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ORDER THROUGH COLLECTIVE SELF- RELIANCE AND A STRATEGY OF NEGOTIATION AND CONFRONTATION

Arusha i s t h e b i r t h p l a c e o f Tanzan ia ' s D e c l a r a t i o n on S o c i a l i sm and S e l f - Re1 iance .

T h i r d World c o u n t r i e s , members o f t h e Group o f 77 , mee t ing i n Arusha t w e l v e years l a t e r d i d n o t e x a c t l y s e t t h e T h i r d World on t h e pa th t o s o c i a l i s m and s e l f - r e l i a n c e . No one c o u l d have expected t h i s e i t h e r , even i f the T h i r d World has no o t h e r p a t h f o r development o f t h e i r peop les .

For , as P r e s i d e n t J u l i u s Nyerere p u t i t i n h i s opening address t o the f o u r t h M i n i s t e r i a l Meet ing o f t h e Group o f 77 : "Some o f us a re avowedly ' s c i e n t i f i c s o c i a l i s t s ' , some j u s t p l a i n s o c i a l i s t s , some c a p i t a l i s t , some t h e o c r a t i c and some f a s c i s t . " The common bond w i t h i n the Group i s no more than separa te n a t i o n a l i s m s , f rom d i v e r s e c u l t u r e s , r e l i g i o n s and h i s t o r i c a l and s o c i a l backgrounds, coming t o g e t h e r because o f t h e i r common s t a t u s o f dependency i n r e l a t i o n t o the i n d u s t r i a l i z e d w o r l d .

The Group o f 77, a f t e r e leven day? o f d e l i b e r a t i o n s , f i v e days a t M i n i s t e r i a l l e v e l , gave no d e c l a r a t i o n t o t h e T h i r d World - i n deference t o t h e h o s t c o u n t r y and the need n o t t o c r e a t e c o n f u s i o n w i t h t h e Arusha D e c l a r a t i o n .

The Group adopted the "Arusha programme f o r c o l l e c t i v e s e l f - r e l i a n c e and framework f o r n e g o t i a t i o n s " - a programme o f a c t i o n f o r t h e T h i r d World t o move towards new i n t e r n a t i o n a l economic o r d e r , th rough t h e i n s t r u m e n t o f economic co -opera t ion among T h i r d World c o u n t r i e s , and i f p o s s i b l e th rough n e g o t i a t i o n s w i t h the i n d u s t r i a l i z e d w o r l d , f o r a g l o b a l l y r e s t r u c t u r e d economy and i n t e r n a t i o n a l economic r e l a t i o n s .

Th is was no mean achievement, f o r t h e South i s c u r r e n t l y f a c i n g a s i t u a t i o n where t h e i n d u s t r i a l i z e d c o u n t r i e s , s p e c i a l l y o f t h e West, a r e determined t o r e s i s t s t r u c t u r a l changes t o end t h e economic dependency o f t h e T h i r d Wor ld. And, i n the words o f P r e s i d e n t Nyerere again, t h e Group had t o become a t r a d e u n i o n o f t h e poor , pursue t h e p a t h o f d i a l o g u e AND c o n f r o n t a t i o n , show s u f f i - c i e n t m a t u r i t y and wisdom t o n e g o t i a t e and compromise, and sometimes ' c a l l a s t r i k e ' , i f need be t o show t h i n g s were no l o n g e r accep tab le .

P r o g n o s t i c a t o r s o f doom, e x p e r t s and agents o f N o r t h seek ing t o i nduce a tomic f i s s i o n o f t h e South, were n o t wan t ing a t Arusha.

T r a n s n a t i o n a l media th roughou t t h e conference, and even t o t h e l a s t day, p l a y e d up t h e d i f f e r e n c e s and f o r e c a s t t h e i n e v i t a b i l i t y o f s p l i t s - one t r a n s n a t i o n a l on t h e f i n a l day r e p o r t i n g , a few hours b e f o r e t h e f i n a l meet ing,

t h a t t o o many d i f f e r e n c e s remained w i t h i n the Group and a1 l o t t e d t o UNCTAD the r o l e o f ha rmon is ing and i s s u i n g a f i n a l document:

To add t o the problems o f 77, t h e r e were t h e i n v i t e d ' o b s e r v e r s ' f rom the i n t e r n a t i o n a l o r q a n i s a t i o n s , each l o b b y i n g t h e 7 7 and i t s v a r i o u s groups ( r a t h e r than t h e 77 l o b b y i n g them) t o m a i n t a i n and expand t h e i r and t h e i r e x e c u t i v e s ' empires, and the ' g a t e c r a s h e r s ' - observers from some i n d u s t r i a l - i z e d c o u n t r i e s and t h e i r o r g a n i z a t i o n s a1 lowed as ' observe rs ' by t h e h o s t c o u n t r y t o a t t e n d p u b l i c sess ions b u t wander ing and l o b b y i n g i n t h e c o r r i d o r s .

Desp i te a1 1 these handicaps, t h e p a r t i c i p a n t s , o f t e n q u a r e l l i n g over words and p rocedura l l e g a l isms ( t h a t t r a n s 1 u c e n t l y showed up t h e i r d i f f e r i n g i n d i v i d u a l and group i n t e r e s t s ) , and s t r a t e g i e s and t a c t i c s , emerged f rom Arusha w i t h a sense o f s o l i d a r i t y , w i t h a c l e a r e r and more conc re te programme o f a c t i o n f o r mutual co -opera t ion , and w i t h n e q o t i a t i n g and f a l l b a c k p o s i t i o n s t h a t i f t r a n s l a t e d s i n c e r e l y and f i r m l y , b o t h i n d i v i d u a l l y and c o l l e c t i v e l y , i n v a r i o u s b i l a t e r a l and m u l t i l a t e r a l n e g o t i a t i o n s , c o u l d t a k e t h e T h i r d World a s t e p fo rward on t h e road t o a n e w i n t e r n a t i o n a l economic o r d e r .

The Group c o u l d n o t take a d e c i s i o n on " t h e f u t u r e a c t i v i t i e s and o r g a n i z a t i o n f o r the 77". No common p o s i t i o n emerged f rom t h e v a r y i n g proposals r a n g i n g f rom a T h i r d Wor ld S e c r e t a r i a t f o r c o - o r d i n a t i n g the a c t i v i t i e s o f the 77 t o a s m a l l t e c h n i c a l s u p p o r t team t o h e l p the Group i n t h e n e g o t i a t i o n s and promote ECDC. The Group s e t up an Ad Hoc Committee o f seven members each f rom the t h r e e r e g i o n s t o 'Study the d e s i r a b i l i t y o r o t h e r w i s e o f the c r e a t i o n o f a t e c h n i c a l

s u p p o r t machinery t o p r o v i d e adequate backup f o r t h e Group o f 77 i n t h e i r n e g o t i a t i o n s w i t h o t h e r groups on t h e programme f o r the new i n t e r n a t i o n a l economic o r d e r and i n programmes f o r mutual co -opera t ion among them' . The Study and i t s r e p o r t i s t o be completed and c i r c u l a t e d i n t i m e f o r cons ide r - a t i o n and a p p r o p r i a t e d e c i s i o n by t h e M i n i s t e r i a l Meet ing o f t h e 77 t o be convened i n New York d u r i n g t h e T h i r t y f o u r t h Session o f the U n i t e d Nat ions General Assembly t h i s Fa1 1.

R e s i s t i n g p ressures f rom i n d u s t r i a l i z e d c o u n t r i e s and in te rgovernmenta l o rgan i - z a t i o n s f o r s e c t o r a l n e g o t i a t i o n s w i t h o u t any o v e r a l l view as now, a s i t u a t i o n t h a t has c o n t r i b u t e d t o p r e s e n t l a c k o f cohesion on i n t e r c o n n e c t e d i ssues and o b j e c t i v e s and end p roduc ts , t h e Group o f 77 c l e a r l y i d e n t i f i e d UNCTAD as t h e key i n s t r u m e n t f o r Nor th-South d ia logue and n e g o t i a t i o n s and sougth the s t r e n g t h e n i n g o f t h e i n s t i t u t i o n , and enhancement o f i t s capabi 1 i t i e s th rough human and m a t e r i a1 sources.

I n i t s p e r s p e c t i v e and a n a l y s i s o f t h e g l o b a l economic s i t u a t i o n , the Group agreed t h a t t h e p r e s e n t ma la ise c o u l d be remedied o n l y th rough s t r u c t u r a l changes i n i n d u s t r i a l i z e d c o u n t r i e s and i n i n t e r n a t i o n a l economic r e l i a t i o n - sh ips , development o f t h e T h i r d World, and changes i n i n t e r n a t i o n a l i n s t i t u - t i o n a l frameworks i n c l u d i n g a b i g g e r vo ice f o r t h e T h i r d World i n g l o b a l economic decis ion-making.

The elements o f such a new i n t e r n a t i o n a l framework, needed t o s u p p o r t and promote s t r u c t u r a l changes i n c l u d e : t h e common fund and i n t e r n a t i o n a l com- mod i t y agreements under t h e i n t e g r a t e d programme on commodit ies, e v o l u t i o n o f p r i n c i p l e s and p o l i c i e s t o promote long- te rm s t r u c t u r a l i n d u s t r i a l a d j u s t - ments i n i n d u s t r i a l i z e d c o u n t r i e s , r e f o r m o f t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l monetary system

and an e f f ec t ive system f o r in ternat ional f inancial co-operation fo r development, the code of conduct on t r ans fe r of technology, and pr incip les and rules on r e s t r i c t i ve business prac t ices .

The decisions of the Group on ECDC were perhaps the major outcome of Arusha. The Group c l ea r ly saw E C D C as a measure of co l l ec t ive s e l f - r e l i ance f o r Third World development and as a programme of col lec t ive s t r a t egy f o r negot ia t ions . A ' s h o r t medium-term action plan fo r global p r i o r i t i e s ' on E C D C was adopted. A number of prac t ica l s teps and measures in the f i e l d s of t r ade , including a global system of preferent ia l trading and t a r i f f s among Third World countries and in the f i e l d s of monetary and finance sec tors and t r ans fe r s of technology were iden t i f i ed f o r fur ther ing co-operation. The Group a l so ca l led f o r s tud ie s in speci f ied f i e l d s by intergovernmental experts of Third World countries t o concre t i se the s teps for co-operation including mu1 t i n a t i onal trading and production enterpr ises t h a t would provide the counterweight fo r the Third World agains t the g iant transnational system in the global economy.

Programmes of E C D C should be undertaken through b i l a t e r a l , sub-regional, regional and in ter - regional p ro j ec t s , through in teres ted countries coming together on se lec ted projec ts agreed among themselves and promoted through such mechanisms as ac t ion committees. This has the added merit of ECDC not havi-g to wait fo r overall agreement of a l l Third World countries b u t enabling those in t e r e s t ed and wi l l ing t o go ahead, allowing others t o join l a t e r i f they choose. The sec tora l expert s tudies and programmes are t o be per iodica l ly reviewed and fu r the r decisions taken and di rec t ives given by Ministerial Meetings of the Group of 77 t h a t would serve as the i n s t i t u t i o n a l framework f o r E C D C .

While seeking the co-operation of indust r i a1 ized countries and of United Nations -

organizations and agencies t o fur ther ECDC, the Group made c l e a r t h a t E C D C i s a matter t h a t ' ch i e f ly concerns developing countr ies , and i t should be formu- l a t ed and implemented by them a t sub-regional, regional , in ter - regional and global l eve l s ' .

On in tegra ted programme of commodities and the common -"und, the G r o u ~ ca l led f o r po l i t i ca l wi l l by indust r ia l ized countries i n the resumed negotiations i n UNCTAD, t o c r ea t e a viable fund t o improve the commodity economies of Third World countries through in ternat ional commodity agreements f o r stocking and s t a b i l i s i n g the markets, and through operations t o finance research and development of production, d ive r s i f i ca t ion and processing of commodi t i e s in the Third World, f o r market research and d ive r s i f i ca t ion . The f inancia l v i a b i l i t y of the common fund should be ensured by mandatory d i r e c t government contr ibut ions t o the cap i t a l of the fund, and with a minimum equal share by members of one mil l ion US do1 l a r s each, and addit ional contributions through an appropriate U N s ca l e of cont r ibut ions .

The Group a l so ca l led f o r a complementary financing f a c i l i t y t o compensate Third World countries f o r s h o r t f a l l s i n earnings on each commodity.

On technology, the Group reaffirmed the objec t ive of a universal and l ega l ly binding instrument of code of conduct on in ternat ional t r ans fe r s of technology, but gave s u f f i c i e n t f l e x i b i l i t y t o Third World negotiators t o work t o reach t h i s objec t ive in the sho r t e s t possible time. The code should bring

w i t h i n i t s scope and a p p l i c a t i o n a1 1 i n t e r n a t i o n a l t r a n s f e r s o f techno logy t r a n s a c t i o n s , e i t h e r when p a r t i e s a re f rom d i f f e r e n t c o u n t r i e s , o r when they are l o c a t e d i n an a c q u i r i n g c o u n t r y i f one o f t h e p a r t i e s i s owned o r con- t r o l l e d by a f o r e i g n e n t i t y , and a p p l i c a b l e i n t r a n s a c t i o n s o r arrangements between p a r e n t e n t e r p r i s e s and t h e i r s u b s i d i a r i e s i n t h e a c q u i r i n g c o u n t r y o r between s u b s i d i a r i e s and o r a f f i l i a t e s o f the same e n t e r p r i s e wherever they a re l o c a t e d .

The Group a l s o took d e c i s i o n s on the need t o have i n t h e code e l i m i n a t i o n o f r e s t r i c t i v e t r a d e p r a c t i c e s adverse ly a f f e c t i n g s o c i a l and economic development o f c o u n t r i e s , s p e c i a l l y T h i r d World c o u n t r i e s . The a p p l i c a b l e law on t r a n s f e r o f techno logy t r a n s a c t i o n s must be the code and law o f a c q u i r i n g c o u n t r y , p a r t i c u l a r l y w i t h i ssues o f p u b l i c p o l i c y . Such i ssues shou ld be determined by n a t i o n a l c o u r t s and t r i b u n a l s o f the a c q u i r i n g s t a t e . Disputes c o u l d be s e t - t l e d by a r b i t r a t i o n if the s e l e c t i o n o f a r b i t r a t o r s and procedures a re f a i r and i f the a p p l i c a b l e law i s the code and the n a t i o n a l l aw o f the a c q u i r i n q s t a t e

On t r a d e i s s u e s , the Group came o u t s t r o n g l y a g a i n s t t h e growing p r o t e c t i o n i s t t rends i n the i n d u s t r i a l i z e d c o u n t r i e s and backed t h e Group o f 7 7 p o s i t i o n i n the MTN n e g o t i a t i o n s i n GATT a g a i n s t p r o t e c t i o n i s m and v a r i o u s t a r i f f and non- t a r i f f measures o b s t r u c t i n g T h i r d World e x p o r t s , and a g a i n s t v a r i o u s n o n - t a r i f f codes s p e c i a l l y those r e l a t i n g t o safeguards and s u b s i d i e s .

The Group c a l l e d f o r fundamental changes i n the i n t e r n a t i o n a l monetary and f i n a n c i a l i n s t i t u t i o n s , f o r g r e a t e r say f o r T h i r d World i n such i n s t i t u t i o n s , f o r balance-of-payments s u p p o r t f o r development o f T h i r d World c o u n t r i e s , f o r e x p o r t c r e d i t guarantee f a c i l i t y , f o r improv ing and l i b e r a l i s i n g t h e IMFs compensatory f i n a n c i n g f a c i 1 i t y , and f o r s t r e n g t h e n i n g and i n c r e a s i n g c a p a c i t y o f these i n s t i t u t i o n s t o h e l p the T h i r d World.

The Group c a l l e d f o r a massive t r a n s f e r o f resources f rom the Nor th t o t h e South, on a s c a l e comparable t o the postwar r e c o n s t r u c t i o n e f f o r t s i n Europe, as the o n l y way f o r p u l l i n g i n d u s t r i a l i z e d economies o u t o f t h e i r p r e s e n t ma la ise , and a t the same t ime p romot ing development i n t h e South.

The U n i t e d S ta tes , West Germany and Japan were ment ioned f o r t h e i r f a i l u r e t o reach t h e o f f i c i a l development a s s i s t a n c e t a r g e t s of 0.7 p e r c e n t o f GNP and t h e Nether lands and Norway and Sweden f o r a c h i e v i n g t h e t a r g e t and a im ing t o exceed i t .

The S o c i a l i s t c o u n t r i e s t o o were asked t o inc rease ass is tance and achieve t h e o f f i c i a l development a s s i s t a n c e t a r g e t s .

A programme o f a c t i o n f o r h e l p i n g the development of t h e " l e a s t developed", l and locked and i s l a n d T h i r d World c o u n t r i e s was a l s o c a l l e d f o r , w i t h s p e c i a l abd n o n - r e c i p r o c a l p r e f e r e n t i a l t r e a t m e n t and measures f o r t h e i r development, b u t w i t h o u t d e t r i m e n t t o i n t e r e s t s o f o t h e r T h i r d World c o u n t r i e s o r a l l o w i n g i n d u s t r i a l i z e d c o u n t r i e s t o p i c k and choose b e n e f i c i a r i e s .

Improved economic and o t h e r r e l a t i o n s between t h e T h i r d World and t h e Soci a1 i s t groups o f c o u n t r i e s was seen as a new d imension i n the e s t a b l i s h m e n t o f new i n t e r n a t i o n a l economic o r d e r . The Group c a l l e d f o r i n c r e a s i n g economic r e l a t i o n s between t h e two groups o f c o u n t r i e s and l i n k i n g i t w i t h e f f o r t s t o e s t a b l i s h a new i n t e r n a t i o n a l economic o r d e r .

I Car los A. Mallmann

Human beings have many needs which, a l l t o g e t h e r , conform a human needs system. The i n s a t i s f a c t i o n o f any one o f them i s due t o a p o v e r t y , a s c a r c i t y o f t h e s a t i s f i e r s which s a t i s f y i t .

The way o f d e t e r m i n i n g human i t y ' s main p o v e r t i e s i s by l o o k i n g a t a human needs system and f i n d i n g o u t which needs i n s a t i s f a c t i o n produces t h e w o r s t and most d i f f u s e d d iseases.

A f t e r making t h i s d e t e r m i n a t i o n , I have concluded t h a t t h e r e are two main ca te - g o r i e s o f i n t e r r e l a t e d p o v e r t i e s :

- p o v e r t y o f subs is tence , and - p o v e r t y o f d i g n i t y

a l l o f which have psychosomatic, psychosoc ia l and psychoeco log ica l components. Human be ings n o t o n l y need t o have more b u t a l s o t o be more. Pover ty o f s u b s i s - tence i s m a i n l y r e l a t e d t o p o v e r t y o f "hav ing" and p o v e r t y o f d i g n i t y i s m a i n l y r e l a t e d t o p o v e r t y of " b e i n g " .

Most o f humani ty s u f f e r s f r o n p o v e r t y o f subs is tence : p a r t o f humani ty , m a i n l y the T h i r d U o r l d , s i n c e many o f i t s i n h a b i t a n t s are d y i n g because o f extreme p o v e r t y o f maintenance. The o t h e r p a r t , m a i n l y t h e s o - c a l l e d developed w o r l d , because a l l o f i t s i n h a b i t a n t s may d i e tomorrow i n a n u c l e a r and/or b i o l o g i c a l war due t o an extreme p o v e r t y o f p r o t e c t i o n .

P r a c t i c a l l y a l l t he i n h a b i t a n t s o f t h e w o r l d a re s u f f e r i n g p o v e r t y o f d i g n i t y . The reason i s t h a t most a l l o f them a re t r e a t e d as mere numbers o r o b j e c t s , n o t as human be ings . T h i s i s t h e autonomous p a r t i c i p a t i o n component o f t h e d i g n i t y p o v e r t y . Women a r e t h e most a f f e c t e d by i t . The o t h e r component o f t h e d i g n i t y p o v e r t y i s the p o v e r t y o f unders tand ing . The i l l i t e r a t e a r e t h e most a f f e c t e d by i t .

The f o l l o w i n g t a b l e summarizes t h e main problems o f p r o d u c t i o n and demand o f s a t i s f i e r s r e l a t e d t o these f o u r p o v e r t i e s :

* For f u r t h e r d e t a i l e d c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f t h i s theme see: "Humani t ies Main Problems and the Nor th-South Round Tab le " , C.A. Mallmann, Synerg ic Develop- ments, group assoc ia ted w i t h Fundac6n B a r i l oche, B a r i 1 oche 8400, A rgen t ina .

Car los Mallrnann i s P r e s i d e n t o f t h e B a r i l o c h e Foundat ion and a member o f the IFDA Counc i l .

Kind o f c o v e r t v Problem o f p r o d u c t i o n Problem o f demand

Maintenance

Sub- s i s tence

P r o t e c t i o n

- i n s u f f i c i e n t i n T h i r d - inadequate n a t i o n a l H o r l d c o u n t r i e s and i n t e r n a t i o n a l

income d i s t r i b u t i o n - s l o w i n g down i n food

p roduc ing c o u n t r i e s - t o o low j o b g e n e r a t i o n & hence demand i n T h i r d H o r l d c o u n t r i e s

- t o o l a r g e , p a r t i c u l a r l y - the u s e r s ' need and i n i n d u s t r i a l i z e d m u n t r i e s demand does n o t e x i s t

- 400 b i l l i o n d o l l a r s i n - generated by t h e autho- arms every y e a r r i t a r i an mi 1 i t a r y -

s c i e n t i f i c - i n d u s t r i a l complex

- low, because the - low, because the Autonomous s t r u c t u r e o f s o c i e t y c h a r a c t e r t r a i t s we P a r t i c i p a t i o n i s a u t h o r i t a r i a n and a c q u i r e as c h i 1 dren ,

p a t e r n a l i s t i c s t a r t i n g a t t h e f a m i l y 1 eve1 , are o f t h e domi - nance-dependence t ype

Esteem - i n s u f f i c i e n t and - l a r g e need, because i t

m a l d i s t r i bu ted i s seen as a means f o r

- r e p e t i t i v e and s e l f - s o c i a l p rog ress

Understanding e s t r a n g i n g - low demand because o f i t s i n a c c e s s i b i l i t y - p a t e r n a l i s t i c and

a u t h o r i t a r i a n

- a l i e n a t i n g and depre- d a t o r y .

T h i s k i n d o f p rob lemat ique cannot be s o l v e d by c o r r e c t i n g ou r course a l i t t l e . I t has t o be s o l v e d by i n n o v a t i v e and h o l i s t i c s o l u t i o n s which change t h e course comp le te l y . T h i s does n o t mean t h a t one shou ld chanqe course a b r u p l y . Most o f t h e changes cons ide red t o be sudden a re so o n l y on t h e s u r f a c e and do n o t change t h e deep-rooted problems o f a u t h o r i t a r i a n i s m and growth p h i l o s o p h i e s .

The f o l l o w i n g p roposa l i s an i n v i t a t i o n t o des ign o t h e r s which a re b e t t e r . I t c o n s i s t s o f :

- c a r r y i n g o u t a p r o g r e s s i v e n a t i o n a l and i n t e r n a t i o n a l r e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f income, by

- d i m i n i s h i n g t h e y e a r l y w o r l d e x p e n d i t u r e i n death purposes, p a r t i c u l a r l y arms races , and

- augmenti na t h e y e a r l y w o r l d e x p e n d i t u r e i n 1 i f e purposes, p a r t i c u l a r l y e r r a d i - e a t i n g undernour ishment , by

- r e c o g n i z i n g as the most i m p o r t a n t j o b o f a l l , t h e p r o d u c t i o n o f human resources o r the r a i s i n g o f hea l t h y c h i l d r e n ,

- pay ing a s a l a r y f o r t h i s t o the person who c a r r i e s i t o u t , nowadays m o s t l y women, and i n t h i s way

- g i v i n g economic autonomy t o b o t h members o f the f a m i l y , c o n t r i b u t i n g t o a decrease i n a u t h o r i t a r i a n i s m , nowadays mos t l y p a t e r n a l ism, w i t h i n the fami 1 i e s , and

- genera t ing , i n t h i s way, t h e food and s h e l t e r demand c a p a c i t y need t o be a b l e t o use t h e unused i n s t a l l e d p r o d u c t i o n c a p a c i t i e s , and

- changing t h e f a m i l y c h i l d r e n ' s encul t u r a t i o n envi ronment i n t o a more autonomous p a r t i c i p a t o r y one which wi 11 produce l e s s a u t h o r i t a r i a n a d u l t s , and hence more democra t i c s o c i e t i e s .

"La clairvoyance" was painted by Magritte in 1936.

V i v i a n Craddock ldi 11 i ams

V I L L A G E I N D U S T R I A L I Z A T I O N AS A KEY COMPONENT I N INTEGRATED RURAL DEVELOPMENT

V i l l a g e i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n i s a process o f development through which a r u r a l work fo rce i s enabled t o add va lue t o t h e r u r a l p roduc t .

Where the r u r a l p r o d u c t begins by be ing t o o low t o s u s t a i n l i v e l i h o o d , as i n the sub-subsis tence communit ies o f many l h i r d k o r l d c o u n t r i e s , v i l l a g e i n d u s t r i a l i z a - t i o n c rea tes t h e c a p a c i t i e s f o r the p r o d u c t i o n o f expanding o u t p u t .

The o p p o r t u n i t i e s we now have f o r t h e i n t r o d u c t i o n o f v i l l a g e i n d u s t r i e s stem f rom the f a i l u r e s o f modern s e c t o r , advanced technology, i n d u s t r i e s t o meet t h e va r ious m a t e r i a l needs o f p e r i p h e r a l communit ies. Sometimes these a re f a i l u r e s t o s u p p l y goods a t the r i g h t p r i c e f o r r u r a l markets; more o f t e n they a re f a i - l u r e s t o supp ly goods a t a l l . The f a i l u r e s have become endemic s i n c e f u e l and t r a n s p o r t cos ts i n f l a t i o n began t o r i s e s t e e p l y i n 1973.

V i l l a g e i n d u s t r i e s a re c a t e g o r i c a l l y d i f f e r e n t f rom modern s e c t o r i n d u s t r i e s o f t h e k i n d t h a t have evo lved i n t h e West, d i f f e r e n t i n s c a l e , concept and q u a l i t y o f o u t p u t . The v i l l a g e i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n process i s d i r e c t e d a t matching l o c a l consumer w i t h l o c a l producer . Dependence on e x t e r n a l markets o r e x t e r n a l i n p u t sources i s n o t c e n t r a l t o i t s growth. The process i n t r o d u c e s a p p r o p r i a t e tech - n o l o g i e s and c r e d i t systems on a sens i ti v e l y - c a l c u l a t e d i n c r e m e n t a l i s t b a s i s .

I t s o b j e c t i v e s a re t h e supp ly o f b a s i c m a t e r i a l needs, t h e c r e a t i o n o f l o c a l employment, and t h e r e d u c t i o n o f e x t e r n a l dependence. The t r a d e - o f f between these o b j e c t i v e s emerges f rom t h e response by the l o c a l community t o t h e i r dev- e lopment p o t e n t i a l . Popu la r p a r t i c i p a t i o n by the communi t y work fo rce i n adding va lue t o the r u r a l p r o d u c t i s c e n t r a l t o what we conceive r e a l development t o be

Examples o f v i l l a g e i n d u s t r i e s t h a t have a l r e a d y been proven as genera to rs o f r u r a l up1 i f t i n many Thi rd World c o u n t r i e s i n c l u d e o i 1 -seed express ing ; g r a i n - m i l l i n g ; f r u i t and vege tab le d r y i n g , p i c k l i n g and p r e s e r v i n g ; t e x t i l e weaving and s p i n n i n g ; fa rm t o o l p r o d u c t i o n and r e p a i r ; sugar and s a l t evapora t ion ; wood and meta l f a b r i c a t i o n .

P r o t e c t i o n f rom modern s e c t o r i n d u s t r i e s o r f rom impor ted a l t e r n a t i v e s has, i n I n d i a , been secured f o r Cot tage I n d u s t r i e s by s t .a tu to ry reserved l i s t s o f p ro - duc ts , ove r 560 i n 1978. I n Zambia, as i n many o t h e r c o u n t r i e s h i t h e r t o r e l y i n g l a r g e l y on modern s e c t o r i n d u s t r i e s o r on i m p o r t s , a n a t u r a l p r o t e c t i o n f o r i n f a n t r u r a l i n d u s t r i e s can be t r a c e d t o c o s t s i n f l a t i o n i n t h e modern s e c t o r and t o a low w o r l d p r i c e f o r copper f rom Zambia's Copperbel t .

Rura l development cannot be achieved by l o c a t i n g modern s e c t o r i n d u s t r i e s i n t h e r u r a l areas. Even where t h e backward and fo rward l i n k a g e s w i t h farm o u t p u t are s t r o n g , such inves tmen ts have t h e e f f e c t o f u r b a n i z i n g a r u r a l community. They f o r t i f y dependency and urban d r i f t .

-- -- -- -- - ~ e v e l o p m e n t D i r e c t o r , V i l l a q e I n d u s t r y S e r v i c e , Lusaka, Zambia

Grethe Vaerno 1

A (NORWEGIAN) GRASSROOT VIEW OF THE PREPARATIONS FOR A NEW INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY

Whi le t h e T h i r d System P r o j e c t i s s t r i v i n g t o i n t r o d u c e d i v e r s i t y , f l e x i b i l i t y and human scope t o development t h i n k i n g , the o f f i c i a l p r e p a r a t i o n s f o r t h e UN S p e c i a l Session on development s t r a t e g y a re t a k i n g t h e i r p r e d i c t a b l e t u r n .

The r e s o l u t i o n adopted a t t h e l a s t UN General Assembly on g u i d e l i n e s f o r t h e p r e p a r a t i o n s o f t h e new I n t e r n a t i o n a l Development S t r a t e g y , p o r t r a y i n g t h e ve ry r e a l d i f f e r e n c e s between the groups o f c o u n t r i e s , was t h e r e s u l t o f drawn-out n e g o t i a t i o n s beh ind c l o s e d doors .

As we a11 know, what has come t o be one o f t h e r e a l bones o f c o n t e n t i o n between t h e Group o f 7 7 and s e v e r a l o f t h e i n d u s t r i a l i z e d c o u n t r i e s i s t h e e x t e n t t o which " i n t e r n a l a f f a i r s " a re t o be cons ide red as a p a r t o f an i n t e r n a t i o n a l development s t r a t e g y . P a r t i c u l a r l y resented, accord ing t o we1 1 i n f o r m e d sources, were re fe rences t o " s o c i a l j u s t i c e " , d i s t r i b u t i o n o f wea l th , and the i n t e g r a t i o n o f women i n development. As i n the case o f t h e p r e p a r a t i o n s f o r the Conference on Science and Technology f o r Development, t h e Group o f 77 wanted t o concen t ra te a t t e n t i o n on t h e i r demands f o r j u s t i c e and concessions f rom t h e i n d u s t r i a1 i z e d c o u n t r i e s - j e a l o u s l y guard ing t h e i r s o v e r e i g n t y o v e r " i n t e r n a l " m a t t e r s .

T h i s a l s o l i n k s up w i t h t h e i r d i s l i k e o f t h e " b a s i c needs" d o c t r i n e ( i n an un- s o p h i s t i c a t e d sense) . However, w h i l e t h e Group o f 7 7 regards " b a s i c needs" as a r u s e by which t h e i n d u s t r i a1 i z e d c o u n t r i e s hope t o evade t h e r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s o f t h e NIEO, t h e "grass r o o t " o f taxpayers o f i n d u s t r i a l i z e d c o u n t r i e s t h a t f o r y e a r s have been exasperated by r e p o r t s t h a t development a s s i s t a n c e money has f a i l e d t o improve t h e l i v i n g c o n d i t i o n s o f t h e poor , t h e women and t h e c h i l d r e n , l o o k a t t h e " b a s i c needs" d o c t r i n e as a more p r o m i s i n g approach than e i t h e r t h e o l d " development a s s i s t a n c e o r the e l i t e - o r i e n t e d NIEO.

When t h e Group o f 77 i n genera l d i s l i k e s t h e "bas ic needs" approach and does n o t want t o d i scuss " i n t e r n a l a f f a i r s " , i n c l u d i n g women's i s s u e s , i n t h e c o n t e x t o f UNCSTD and IDS, does t h i s i m p l y t h a t t h e y a t t a c h a l l impor tance t o t h e i n t e r n a - t i o n a l s t r u c t u r e f o r t h e i r development, o r s i m p l y t h a t t h e y r e s i s t t h e tendency o f t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l community t o h o l d t h e governments r e s p o n s i b l e f o r t h e i r n a t i o n a l p o l i c i e s ?

P o s s i b l y t h e members o f t h e Group o f 7 7 a re m i s c a l c u l a t i n g when they g i v e i n t o t h e growing t r e n d t o demand, even more a g g r e s s i v e l y , concessions which w i l l f i n a l l y amount t o c o n s i d e r a b l e s a c r i f i c e f rom t h e grass r o o t s o f t h e i n d u s t r i a l - i z e d c o u n t r i e s , and t h e r e f o r e need s u p p o r t f rom a wide p u b l i c .

There i s mount ing awareness among c o u n t r i e s w i t h a s i z e a b l e f o r e i g n a i d b i l l o f i h e paradox t h a t spokesmen f rom the poor members o f t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l community demand s o l i d a r i t y and d i s t r i b u t i o n o f w e a l t h f rom t h e r i c h e r members, w h i l e they

N a t i o n a l Counci l o f Women, Oslo, Norway.

themselves deny the re levance o f the counter-demand t h a t they show t h e same s o l i - d a r i t y toward tne poor members o f t h e i r n a t i o n a l community. Th is i s h a r d l y accep tab le f o r the peoples o f some o f t h e donor c o u n t r i e s who have come a l o n g way toward accep t ing the same r e s p o n s i b i l i t y toward o t h e r peoples o f t h e w o r l d as they f e e l f o r members o f t h e i r own n a t i o n s .

I t ough t t o be obvious t o t h e governments and e l i t e s o f the l h i r d i , ! o r l d c o u n t r i e s t h a t t h e s o l i d a r i t y and r e s p o n s i b i l i t y which i s demanded o f t h e peop le o f t h e i n d u s t r i a l i z e d c o u n t r i e s i n t h e name o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l j u s t i c e go t o the people, n o t t o t h e governments, o f t h e Thi rd World c o u n t r i e s . It goes f rom a g r a s s r o o t group i n an i n d u s t r i a1 i zed c o u n t r y t o a co r respond ing group i n t h e deve lop ing coun t ry - from, l e t us say, women i n Norway t o women i n Zambia, f rom suppressed groups t o suppressed groups, f rom t r a d e unions t o t r a d e u n i o n i s t s i n j a i l . I n the l o n g r u n i t wi 11 be ve ry c o u n t e r - p r o d u c t i v e i f t h e i n d i v i d u a l governments p e r s i s t i n c l a i m i n q t h a t t h e p r i n c i p l e s o f human r i g h t s , a p p l i c a b l e t o human i n d i v i d u a l s , o f freedom, s e l f - d e t e r m i n a t i o n and n o n - i n t e r v e n t i o n , a c t u a l l y a r e s t a t e r i g h t s " , however u n r e p r e s e n t a t i v e t h e regime i s o f men and women, i n t h a t s t a t e .

As l o n g as any s t a t e demands something f rom ano ther s t a t e which w i l l a f f e c t t h e c i t i z e n s o f t h e l a t t e r , those c i t i z e n s have t h e s e l f - e v i d e n t r i g h t t o ask how t h i s concession w i l l b e n e f i t t h e c i t i z e n s o f the demanding s t a t e . It i s n o t s u f f i c i e n t t o r e f e r t o UN documents and r e s o l u t i o n s , adopted by a m a j o r i t y vo te o f government r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s , s p e c i f i c a l l y des igned t o p r o t e c t governments a g a i n s t t h i s k i n d o f " p o p u l i s t " i n t e r v e n t i o n . Unkind eyes w i l l see t h i s as a fo rm o f e l i t i s t conspi racy .

There fo re , we may p r e d i c t t h a t an IDS t h a t does n o t c o n t a i n t h e necessary domes- t i c components w i l l have b u t s l i g h t appeal. Some i n d u s t r i a l i z e d c o u n t r i e s have taken t h i s i n t o account when t h e y c o n s i s t e n t l y c l a i m t h a t i n t e r n a t i o n a l and n a t i o n a l s o c i a l j u s t i c e have t o be seen as complementary f a c t o r s i n development. A lso, t h i s w i l l be even more i m p o r t a n t as, h o p e f u l l y , governments i n i n d u s t r i a - l i zed c o u n t r i e s become more t r u l y r e p r e s e n t a t i v e o f and respons ive t o t h e i r peoples - i n c l u d i n g women.

An IDS t h a t passes by t h e necessary i n t e g r a t i o n o f women i n t h e development process w i l l f u r t h e r a l i e n a t e t h e female p a r t o f the p u b l i c o p i n i o n - a s e c t i o n o f s o c i e t y , however, t h a t i s among t h e most a r d e n t suppor te rs o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l s o l i d a r i t y and o f a11 p o s s i b l e ass is tance t o more u n f o r t u n a t e s i s t e r s around t h e g lobe.

Joseph C o l l i n s and Frances Moore Lappe *

THE WORLD BANK

P e r h a p s more than any o t h e r i n s t i t u t i o n i n t h e wor ld , the World Bank i s h e l p i n g l a r g e numbers o f peop le move o u t o f a b s o l u t e o o v e r t y toward a more decent l i f e . " - U o r l d Bank P r e s i d e n t , Rober t S. PhcNamara, A p r i l 2, 1978

The World Bank has r a p i d l y emerged as t h e l e a d i n g i n s t i t u t i o n f o r development f i n a n c i n g , w i t h l e n d i n g commitments f o r 1979 p r o j e c t e d a t $ 9 .8 b i l l i o n . P r e s i d e n t C a r t e r has asked American taxpayers t o v i r t u a l l y double t h e i r con- t r i b u t i o n t o t h e Bank. Our $ 2 .2 b i l l i o n i n f i s c a l 1979, we a r e t o l d , would h e l p t h e Bank f u r t h e r i t s " a s s a u l t on p o v e r t y " .

The World Bank 's A s s a u l t on Pover ty

I m p o r t a n t i n s i g h t s i n t o t h e World Bank 's b a t t l e p l a n can come from r e a d i n g any o f i t s c o n f i d e n t i a l r u r a l p r o j e c t p l a n n i n g documents ( " g r a y c o v e r s " ) . Here t h e Bank s t a f f seems t o f o l l o w a r i t u a l fo rmu la - one a p p a r e n t l y u n a f f e c t e d by t h e * Bank 's " b a s i c needs" r h e t o r i c o f t h e p a s t f i v e y e a r s .

Techn ica l and s t a t i s t i c a l da ta a r e paraded f o r t h . Pover ty i s q u a l i f i e d . The poor a r e spoken o f i n p a r a - m i l i t a r y terms: t h i s i s , as " t h e t a r g e t p o p u l a t i o n " . D e s p i t e t h e s t r e s s on " p a r t i c i p a t i o n " i n p u b l i c l y - t o u t e d p o l i c y papers ( f o r example, "The r u r a l poor must p a r t i c i p a t e i n d e s i g n i n g and o p e r a t i n g a program which i n v o l v e s so many o f them"), poor people, p r o j e c t documents imp ly , can be reached f rom t h e t o p down. The poor a r e never seen as t h e p a r t i c i p a n t s , much l e s s t h e i n s t i g a t o r s , o f t h e i r own development.

P r o j e c t p roposa ls , n o m i n a l l y w r i t t e n by t h e l o c a l government, a r e i n most cases g h o s t - w r i t t e n by Bank "m iss ions" t h a t f l y i n a t no sma l l expense f rom Washington f o r a few days.

The presumpt ion th roughou t p r o j e c t des ign i s t h a t development can be ach ieved o n l y by b r i n g i n g i n e x t e r n a l resources . F o r e i g n inves tmen t i s t h o u g h t o f as e s s e n t i a l . E v e r y t h i n g shou ld be done, t h e r e f o r e , t o develop a f a v o u r a b l e c l i m a t f o r f o r e i g n banks and c o r p o r a t i o n s . Tha t a p r o j e c t d e s i g n i n c l u d e s ongoing r e l i a n c e on i m p o r t s i s n o t seen as a problem.

The p r o j e c t imp lementa t ion s e c t i o n amounts t o a s e r i e s o f b e s t - o f - a l l - w o r l d s p r o j e c t i o n s . Statement o f g o a l s p l u s money equa ls success. Pover ty i s s i m p l y t h e r e w i t h no h i n t t h a t f o r c e s a r e a t work c r e a t i n g and s u s t a i n i n g i t . A p r o j e c t - p l a n i s an e x e r c i s e i n economics d i v o r c e d f rom p o l i t i c a l , s o c i o l o g i c a l and c u l t u r a l f a c t o r s . The p o s s i b i l i t y o f c o n f l i c t i n g i n t e r e s t s on any l e v e l i s a p p a r e n t l y u n t h i n k a b l e . Government and o t h e r a c t o r s a r e a l l presumed t o be work ing t o g e t h e r t o e l i m i n a t e p o v e r t y . R e s u l t s o f p r o j e c t s a r e measured o n l y i n s t a t i s t i c s , n o t i n t h e exper ience o f r e a l people.

* D r . C o l l i n s and Ms. Lapp6 a r e co-authors o f Food F i r s t : Beyond t h e Myth o f S c a r c i t y (Houghton M i f f l i n 1977 and B a l l a n t i n e Books 1979) . Together t h e y founded t h e I n s t i t u t e f o r Food and Development P o l i c y (2588 M i s s i o n St., San F ranc isco , CA 94110). The I n s t i t u t e i s conduc t ing a s t u d y o f a i d and development.

"Going to the Big Boys"

With the Bank's projec t designs opting to ignore the social roots of poverty, i s i t surpr is ing t h a t they seem time a f t e r time to achieve the reverse of s t a t ed goals?

Take the Bank's c r e d i t to the government of Bangladesh to fund 3000 deep tube- wel ls . Each tubewell can i r r i g a t e 60 ac re s , making possible an ext ra crop of r i ce i n northwestern Bangladesh. According to a Bank press r e l ea se , each well would serve from 25 to 50 in a cooperative i r r i g a t i o n group. B u t independent researchers Betsy Hartmann and James Boyce, who l ived fo r nine months in one of the v i l lages covered by the p ro j ec t , found what was no sec re t to anyone in the v i l l a g e : the tubewell has wound up as the property of one man, the r i ches t landlord in the v i l l age . The World Bank ( i n r e a l i t y the Bangladesh government) paid $ 12,000 f o r each wel l ; t h i s landowner paid l e s s than $ 300 f o r h i s , and tha t mostly in bribes to local o f f i c i a l s . And the vaunted i r r i g a - t ion cooperative i s but a few s ignatures he col lec ted on a scrap of paper.

Was the Hartmann and Boyce experience a typ ica l ? Apparently not a t a l l . Express- i n g t h e i r dismay t o a foreign expert working on the n ro j ec t , they were to ld :

' I no longer ask who i s ge t t ing the wel l . I know what the answer wi l l be and I don ' t want t o hear i t . One hundred percent of these wells are going to the 'big boys ' . "

The projec t should not be thought of as simply f a i l i n g to helo the ' t a r g e t group ' . Such a projec t ac tual ly -- undercuts the supposed benef ic iar ies by enriching t h e i r enemies. Thanks to t h e i r increased income due t o the World Bank tubewells, l a rge r landowners wi l l be b e t t e r positioned to buy out the small farmers, thus driving them in to the growing ranks of the landless . The same foreign expert commented:

O n paper i t a11 sounds qu i t e nice. When the o f f i c i a l s f l y in from Washington f o r a three-day v i s i t to Dacca, they look a t these papers. They don ' t know what i s happening out here in the f i e l d , and no one i s going t o t e l l them."

World Bank o f f i c i a l s who f ind themselves forced t o admit the f a i l u r e of such a projec t invar iably do not question i t s premises. "More managers", they say "are what i s needed".

Not Neighbours, B u t Rivals

We ourselves investigated another Bank rural development program in Bangladesh, a major ' p i l o t ' program cal led RD-1 (Rural Development Phase One). The s t a t ed goal of the $ 16 mill ion RD-1 i s " to reduce the domination of rural i n s t i t u t i o n s by the more prosperous and p o l i t i c a l l y i n f luen t i a l farmers and to make farm c red i t s and agr icul tura l inputs . . . avai lable to the small farmers through the cooperative system."

The Bank, you wi l l note , presupposes there could be a cooperative system n o t dominated by the e l i t e landowners.

People i n each v i l l a g e we v i s i t e d , however, t o l d us t h a t t h e s o - c a l l e d coop- e r a t i v e s were f o r the w e l l - o f f - g e n e r a l l y the t o p 10 p e r c e n t owning s i x ac res o r more - who c o n t r o l l e d t h e records and determined who c o u l d j o i n and g e t c r e d i t . Fo r the r e s t , e s p e c i a l l y t h e h a l f owning one a c r e o r l e s s , t h e payment terms a r e too s t r i n g e n t and t h e membership fees t o o h i g h . Moreover, w i t h o u t l and , coming up w i t h c o l l a t e r a l i s v i r t u a l l y i m p o s s i b l e . "Even i f I d i d come up w i t h a scheme t o pay back a l o a n " one l a n d l e s s v i l l a g e r complained, t h e c o o p e r a t i v e would s t i l l n o t g i v e me c r e d i t " .

The case i n Bangladesh con f i rms a p a t t e r n we have found th rouqhou t t h e w o r l d : v i l l a g e coopera t i ves w i l l i n e v i t a b l y be co-opted by the e l i t e groups as l o n g as l a n d remains g r o s s l y unevenly d i s t r i b u t e d .

P r o j e c t s dreamed up i n a s o c i a l vacuum must p l a y themselves o u t i n the r e a l w o r l d o f i n j u s t i c e and c o n f l i c t . As one Food and A g r i c u l t u r e Organ iza t ion ag ronomis t w i t h 15 years exper ience i n Bangladesh t o l d us, "The t h i n g t o r e - member about the v i l l a g e s i s t h a t t h e people a re n o t ne ighbours b u t r i v a l s " . S i m i l a r l y the fundamental s o c i a l r e a l i t y , we were r e p e a t e d l y t o l d , i s a s t r u g g l e over l and : the w e l l - o f f scheme t o g e t t h e i r s m a l l e r ne ighbours i n debt t o them i n o r d e r t o f o r e c l o s e on t h e i r l and ; the poor farmers d e s p e r a t l y maneuver to h o l d on t o t h e 11 ttl e l a n d they have.

Thus the r u r a l e l i t e who usurp t h e tubewe l l - o r t h e new machines o r t h e extens- i o n w o r k e r ' s gu idance o r whatever the Bank n r o j e c t s supposedly earmarked f o r the smal l farmer - make su re the poor w i l l n o t b e n e f i t . Th is i s t r u e even i t i t means v a s t l y u n d e r u t i l i z i n g t h e new i n p u t .

D o n ' t Rock t h e Boat

A r e c e n t Bank p o l i c y paper on r u r a l development e x p l a i n s how p r o j e c t s shou ld deal w i t h " t h e e x i s t i n g s o c i a l system". The paper s t a t e s : " I n many c o u n t r i e s , a v o i d i n g o p p o s i t i o n from power fu l and i n f l u e n t i a l s e c t i o n s o f t h e r u r a l commun- i t y i s e s s e n t i a l i f the Bank 's program i s n o t t o be subver ted f rom w i t h i n " .

The Bank 's commitment t o n o t r o c k i n g the b o a t i s c l e a r when we d i s c o v e r t h a t many o f i t s r u r a l programs do n o t even make the p re tense o f a i d i n g the poor s m a l l h o l d e r s . I n A s s a u l t on World Pover ty t h e Bank s t a t e s t h a t i t i s a l l o c a t i n g a lmos t h a l f o f i t s r u r a l c r e d i t t o s m a l l f a rmers . Bu t t h i s means then t h a t more than h a l f o f the Bank 's r u r a l c r e d i t w i l l s t i l l be g o i n g t o medium and l a r g e farmers who a t most c o n s t i t u t e o n l y 20 p e r c e n t o f a1 1 landho lde rs i n the T h i r d World.

Moreover, c l o s e r examina t ion o f p r o j e c t a p p r a i s a l s has t a u g h t us t o be on t h e a l e r t about even the "a lmost h a l f " supposedly g o i n g t o "sma l l f a rmers " . F o r whether o r n o t World Bank c r e d i t i s g e t t i n g t o t h e r u r a l poor depends, i n p a r t , on how the Bank d e f i n e s " s m a l l " . I n Guatemala, a j o i n t FAO/World Bank fa rm c r e d i t program would a l l o c a t e o n e - h a l f o f t h e c r e d i t t o t h e t o p t h r e e p e r c e n t o f the landho lde rs , those owning 112 ac res o r more. The o t h e r h a l f wou ld go t o what the Bank c a l l s " sma l l f a r m e r s " , those owning l e s s than 112 ac res . To an American, 112 acres m i g h t sound s m a l l , b u t t h i s c u t - o f f p o i n t h a r d l y separ- a tes o u t the r u r a l poor i n Guatemala where a f u l l 97 p e r c e n t o f a l l f a rmers

have l e s s t h a n 112 a c r e s . N i t h such a g u i d e l i n e , t h e B a n k ' s p r o j e c t c o u l d bypass t o t a l l y t h e r e a l p o o r m a j o r i t y i n Guatemala, f a rmers w i t h l e s s t h a n even one a c r e and, o f cou rse , t h e many w i t h no l a n d a t a1 1 .

Even where t h e s t a t e d pu rpose i s t o b e n e f i t t h e t r u l y s m a l l h o l d e r s , t h e Bank i t s e l f acknowledges t h a t t h e c r e d i t s go t h r o u g h n a t i o n a l a g r i c u l t u r a l and deve lopment banks, p r i m a r i l y w i n d i n g UD i n t h e hands o f l a r g e h o l d e r s . I n t h e P h i l i p p i n e s , f o r example , t h e Wor ld Bank made two l o a n s t o r u r a l banks t h a t were p a r t i a l l y government-owned. S m a l l h o l d e r s w i t h l e s s t h a n seven a c r e s (who compr i se 73 p e r c e n t o f a11 f a r m e r s i n t h e a r e a ) a c t u a l l y r e c e i v e d l e s s t h a n one p e r c e n t o f t h e c r e d i t ex tended .

The Land less

And i f t h e Bank i s s e r i o u s abou t a t t a c k i n g r u r a l p o v e r t y , wha t does i t o f f e r t h e many l a n d l e s s i n c o u n t r i e s where a f e w m o n o p o l i z e t h e l a n d ? (Even i n t h e B a n k ' s own c o n s e r v a t i v e e s t i m a t e , t h e l a n d l e s s make up 40 t o 6 0 p e r c e n t o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n ) . To dea l w i t h t h e l a n d l e s s , t h e Bank unabashed l y r e v i v e s t h e ' t r i c k l e down" t h e o r y . 1-Je were t o l d , f o r example , t h a t m i l l i o n s o f d o l l a r s f o r an i r r i g a t i o n dam w i l l g e n e r a t e more f a r m employment, a boon t o t h e l a n d l e s s . But ,as Hartmann and Boyce ask , " I s g i v i n g a i d t o t h e r i c h so t h e y can h i r e more p o o r a t s u b s i s t e n c e wages r e a l l y t h e way t o b e s t h e l p t h e p o o r ? "

An u t t e r l y r a r e e x c e p t i o n : t h e Bank d i d d e s i g n a s u b - p r o j e c t i n Bangladesh t o b e n e f i t l a n d l e s s v i l l a g e r s d i r e c l t y The S 16 m i l l i o n RD-1 p r o j e c t i n c l u d e s a meager $ 4,000 l o a n f o r a s i n g l e l a n d l e s s c o o p e r a t i v e t o pu rchase f r o m t h e government a pond and t h r e e a c r e s o f l a n d . ( T h e r e i s much more government l a n d i n t h e v i l l a g e b u t t h e w e l l - o f f have usu rped i t . ) S i n c e t h e w o r k e r s ' income i s s t i l l such t h a t t h e y mus t a l s o work f o r t h e v i l l a g e r l andowners t o s u r v i v e , t h i s program amounts t o a wage s u b s i d y f o r t h e r i c h l andowners .

The program f u r t h e r m o r e i n c l u d e s o n l y a t h i r d o f t h i s s i n g l e v i l l a g e ' l a n d l e s s and does n o t h i n g t o c o n f r o n t t h e s t r u c t u r e s t h a t g e n e r a t e t h e i r l a n d l e s s n e s s .

I n v i s i t i n g t h i s p r o j e c t , we c o u l d n o t a v o i d f e e l i n g t h a t i t was n o t h i n g " lore t h a n a showcase. I n s i q n i n g t h e c o - o p ' s v i s i t o r s book, we n o t i c e d s i g n a t u r e s o f v i s i t o r s f r o m s e v e r a l European c o u n t r i e s and Canada. Here t h e p o o r p e o p l e we me t t h e r e b e i n g u n d e r p a i d f o r t h e i r u n w i t t i n g s e r v i c e t o t h e Bank ' s image?

The Bank goes o u t o f ' i t s way n o t t o r o c k t h e b o a t even i n cases o f o u t r i g h t c o r r u p t i o n b y e l i t e s . I n Bangladesh t h e p r i c e t a g ori pumpsets f o r t h e B a n k ' s deep t u b e w e l l p r o j e c t jumped f r o m $ 9 t o $ 1 2 m i l l i o n s i m p l y t o meet t h e demand f o r s u p e r p r o f i t s by t h e pumpset i m p o r t e r , B a n g l a d e s h ' s r i c h e s t c i t i z e n .

A Bank i s a Bank

W h i l e " f e e d i n g t h e h u n g r y " m i g h t warm t h e h e a r t o f Wor ld Bank o f f i c i a l s , t h e r e i s no column on t h e i r l e d g e r s h e e t s headed " f u l l s tomachs" . Poor p e o p l e g r o w i n g f o o d f o r t hemse l ves do n o t p roduce money and f o r e i g n exchange. F o r o n l y i f t h e y s e l l t h e i r p r o d u c t i o n , t h a t i s , g e n e r a t e " m a r k e t a b l e s u r p l u s " , w i l l l o a n s g e t r e p a i d . T h a t i s wha t t h e Bank i s concerned a b o u t .

The World Bank, 1 i k e any o t h e r bank, seeks t o m in im ize r i s k . The Bank i t s e l f no tes , "Lending o n l y t o those w i t h investment o p p o r t u n i t i e s s u f f i c i e n t t o p r o - duce a s i g n i f i c a n t marke tab le s u r p l u s i s perhaps t h e b e s t way t o reduce t h e l e v e l o f d e f a u l t " . "Those w i t h i nves tmen t o p p o r t u n i t i e s " i s a euphemism f o r t h e l a r g e r l a n d h o l d e r s . It i s ha rd t o be a t once a bank and s a v i o r o f t h e poor !

Besides b e t t i n g on the l a r g e h o l d e r , the Bank o f t e n c a r r i e s i t s r i s k m i n i m i z a t i o n one s tep f u r t h e r : farmers a r e "encouraged" t o produce nonfood c rops . T h i s w i l l ensure a marke tab le s u r p l u s . Co t ton and rubber , a f t e r a l l , cannot p o s s i b l y be ea ten by t h e p roducers . Fur thermore, as the Bank no tes , "De l inquenc ies ( i n l o a n payments) have a l s o been reduced when repayment has been c o o r d i n a t e d w i t h the marke t ing o f c rops t h a t a r e c e n t r a l l y processed, f o r example, tobacco, c o t t o n , cocoa, tea and c o f f e e . " Thus t o m i n i m i z e i t s own r i s k s , t h e Wor ld Bank p r e f e r s n o t t o l e n d f o r t h e b a s i c food crops o f the people. Ac tua l a g r i c u l t u r a l l oans overwhelmingly demonstrate t h i s p r e f e r e n c e .

L i v e s t o c k i s t h e Bank 's most favo red "cash c r o p " , compr i s ing o n e - t h i r d o f a11 a g r i c u l t u r a l loans. The p o r t i o n i s even h i g h e r i n L a t i n America, where o v e r 70 p e r c e n t goes t o l i v e s t o c k p r o j e c t s . I n 1971 the Bank p r o v i d e d a $ 4 m i l l i o n l o a n t o Guatemala t o cover 52 pe rcen t o f the cos ts o f a beef p r o j e c t and promised a $ 15 m i l l i o n f o l l o w - u p l o a n f o r expansion. The b e n e f i t t i n g ranchers were dubbed "medium-sized". I n f a c t t h e sub- loans went t o t h e c o u n t r y ' s 300 r i c h e s t e x p o r t ranchers .

A Bank- f inanced l i v e s t o c k ~ r o j e c t i n Kenya i s a l l o c a t i n g 87 p e r c e n t o f a11 c r e d i t t o a few l a r g e c o r p o r a t e and o t h e r commercial ranches. Bank economist Uma L e l e g i v e s a c l a s s i c Bank r a t i o n a l i z a t i o n f o r so much money g o i n g t o so few: T h e t a x revenues generated f rom these ranches a re expected t o h e l p t h e government p r o v i d e r u r a l s e r v i c e s t o o t h e r needy a r e a s " . ( Y e t a n o t h e r i n d i c a t i o n t h a t " t r ick le-down" t h e o r y has n o t been b u r i e d a t the N o r l d Bank.)

The Bank a l s o favours sugar cane. V i s i t i n g Indones ia , we l e a r n e d t h a t i t i s b a n k r o l l i n g ( s o f a r t o t h e t m e o f $ 50 m i l l i o n ) t h e r e b u i l d i n g o f t h e sugar m i l l s b u i l t by Dutch c o l o n i z e r s . And, accord ing t o t h e Wall S t r e e t J o u r n a l , sugar m i l l o f f i c i a l s a re " f o r c i n g t h e unhappy farmers t o g r o w c a n e a ~ i n t " .

Besides focus ing on t h e l a r g e landho lde rs and cash c rops , y e t ano ther way t o i n s u r e t h a t t h e marke tab le s u r p l u s does n o t g e t ea ten i s t o send o u t "super- v i s o r s " . Bu t the Bank s t i l l f r e t s : " . . . s u p e r v i s i o n can never comp le te l y e l i m - i n a t e inc reases i n consumpt ion f o l l o w i n g t h e r e c e i p t o f l oans , even when c r e d i t i s p r o v i d e d i n k i n d " .

Pushing Money

Bank l o a n o f f i c i a l s t a r g e t l o a n quotas f o r each c o u n t r y . They p rod p r o j e c t o f f i c e r s t o come up w i t h more and b i g g e r o u t l e t s t o meet those quo tas .

Focusing on s c a r i n g up o u t l e t s f o r huge sums o f money i s n ' t e x a c l y conducive t o Bank o f f i c e r s r e f l e c t i n g on the s o c i a l consequences o f t h e i r p r o j e c t s . "Anyone who s tops t o r a i s e q u e s t i o n s " , we were t o l d by one Bank c o n s u l t a n t who has worked w i t h e v e r y depar tment i n the Bank, " i s cons ide red an o b s t r u c t i o n i s t - n o t a good team man".

Th is "excess funds syndrome" lends i t s e l f t o t h e p e r p e t u a t i o n o f ext reme c o r r u p t i o n i n government. The Wal l S t r e e t Journa l r e p o r t s t h a t i n Indones ia i t i s " a u t h o r i t a t i v e l y es t ima ted" t h a t 10 t o 15 p e r c e n t o f t h e t o t a l c o s t o f Bank- f inanced p r o j e c t s (now r u n n i n g a t o v e r $ 500 m i l l i o n a y e a r ) i s d i s s i p a t e d through " leakage" . As the l a r g e s t s i n g l e l e n d e r i n most c o u n t r i e s , t h e Bank a l s o can undermine the e f f o r t s o f s m a l l e r o f f i c i a l and v o l u n t a r y agencies t h a t p u t t i g h t c o n d i t i o n s on a i d t o c i r cumven t c o r r u p t and e x p l o i t a t i v e s t r u c t u r e s . Wi th the Bank ready t o l e n d l a r g e sums w i t h no e f f e c t i v e s t r i n g s a t tached , why would a government b o t h e r w i t h such agencies? "The Banku,deve1op- ment workers have r e p e a t e d l y t o l d us , tends t o be a " r e c k l e s s donor" .

I n Tanzania, a ma jo r p a r t o f the funds i n a World Bank urban garden p r o j e c t went t o an o u t s i d e c o n t r a c t o r f o r b u i l d i n g a s to rage u n i t . I t c o s t f o u r t imes as much p e r square f o o t , we were t o l d by a community worker c l o s e t o the p r o j e c t , as a comparable s t r u c t u r e b u i l t by t h e p a r t i c i p a n t s themselves i n a s i m i l a r p r o j e c t nearby. The community worker a l s o t o l d us t h a t the Bank t h i s y e a r has channe l led i n t o the p r o j e c t t w i c e the amount o f money needed. "The excess" , she s t r e s s e d , " l eads t o waste and i n e f f i c i e n c y " .

The Bank i s pushing money, yes , b u t n o t g i v i n g i t away. Loans must e v e n t u a l l y be r e p a i d - and w i t h f o r e i g n exchange, earned,as we have seen, l a r g e l y by the l a b o u r o f r u r a l people p roduc ing f o r e x p o r t . A t b e s t the Bank, th rough i t s IDA o p e r a t i o n , g i v e s loans on concessional terms. Much o f these l o a n s , however, mere ly se rve t o c r e a t e t h e cash f l o w t h a t makes i t p o s s i b l e t o make payments on p rev ious r e g u l a r bank loans as w e l l as p r i v a t e US and European bank l o a n s .

Moreover, Bank p r o j e c t s i n v a r i a b l y r e q u i r e t h e l o c a l government t o p u t up ' c o u n t e r p a r t funds" t o l u b r i c a t e t h e l o c a l opera t ions o f t h e p r o j e c t s . Thus sca rce f i n a n c i a l resources - and human ones, t o o - a re t i e d up by Bank p r o j e c t s .

Repaying mount ing debts pu ts a c o u n t r y under ever g r e a t e r p ressure t o o r i e n t eve ry aspec t o f the economy toward e x p o r t s . The "deb t t r a p " pushes c o u n t r i e s away f rom b u i l d i n g a b a s i s o f s e l f - r e l i a n c e , t h e o n l y f o u n d a t i o n f o r a new i n t e r n a t i o n a l economic o r d e r .

F i n a n c i n g Expor ts

The Wor ld Bank was c h a r t e r e d a t the c l o s e o f World War I 1 t o s t i m u l a t e and f i n a n c e c a p i t a l goods e x p o r t s from c o u n t r i e s l i k e the U n i t e d S t a t e s . The Bank i n e v i t a b l y d e f i n e s "development" as t h i n g s t h a t c o s t l o t s o f money and need t o be i m p o r t e d - b u i l d i n g s , f o r e i g n h i g h - s a l a r y t e c h n i c i a n s and t h e v e h i c l e s they need, dams, roads , l a b o r a t o r i e s , a u d i o - v i s u a l equipment, and so f o r t h .

I n Indones ia , a t l e a s t 50 p e r c e n t o f a Bank n u t r i t i o n p r o j e c t goes t o " b r i c k s and m o r t a r " and f a n c y equipment f o r fancy b u i l d i n g s , as one American work ing f o r the U n i t e d Na t ions i n Indones ia t o l d us. Even under t h e heading o f a g r i c u l t- u r e and r u r a l development, U o r l d Bank loans go overwhelmingly t o b u i l d i n f r a - s t r u c t u r e - f rom roads t o dams - t h a t e n r i c h l o c a l and f o r e i g n c o n t r a c t o r s and c o n s u l t a n t s . (No t s u r p r i s i n g l y , accord ing t o a r e c e n t S t a t e Department e s t i m a t e , f o r eve ry d o l l a r t h e U n i t e d S ta tes has p a i d i n t o t h e Bank, $ 2 have been spen t i n t h e US economy - which shou ld l e a d us t o ask who i s a i d i n g whom).

S o p h i s t i c a t e a u d i o v i s u a l equ ipment and o t h e r e l e c t r o n i c hardware make up o v e r $ I ,000,000 o f t h e budge t o f t h e 1977 a g r i c u l t u r a l e x t e n s i o n p r o j e c t i n T h a i l a n d . I t sounds more l i k e a S t a n f o r d g r a d u a t e program i n mass media t h a n a r u r a l deve lopment p r o j e c t i n A s i a . Moreover , some o f t h e " b a r g a i n s " t o be purchased f o r t h e p r o j e c t b y " i n t e r n a t i o n a l c o m p e t i t i v e b i d d i n g " i n c l u d e : 420 hand c a l - c u l a t o r s a t $ 50 each; 30 desk c a l c u l a t o r s a t 5 160 each; 30 16mm mov ie p r o - j e c t o r s a t S 1200 each; t w e l v e 21 - i nch c o l o r t e l e v i s i o n r e c e i v e r s a t S 1,050 each, and on and o n . (Bus iness r e a d e r s m i g h t w i s h t o check i n t o s e l l i n g t o t h e Bank ) .

I l o r e Than a Bank

The Wor ld Bank i s n o t s i m p l y a p r o v i d e r o f deve lopment l o a n s . Over t h e p a s t f ew y e a r s i t has become a m a j o r f o r c e i n s h a p i n g n a t i o n a l economic p o l i c i e s . I n t h e B a n k ' s own words :

' I D A ' S b o r r o w e r s , i n p a r t i c u l a r , wou ld be u n l i k e l y t o o b t a i n f i n a n c e o n terms CIS s d ' ~ L f a c t o r y as I D A ' S f r o m any o t h e r sou rce ; t h e y a r e t h e r e f o r e u n l i k e l y t o d i s r e g a r d t h e k i n d o f a d v i c e t h e y may be g i v e n by Bank IDA m i s s i o n s whose p e r - i o d i c su rveys o f t h e i r economies i n c l u d e assessments o f t h e soundness o f t h e i r economic p o l i c i e s "

The Bank has begun e s t a b l i s n i n g permanent m i s s i o n s i n T h i r d 'n 'or ld c o u n t r i e s , o f t e n l o c a t e d r i g h t w i t h i n o l a n n i n g m i n i s t r i e s . I n an i n c r e a s i n g number o f c o u n t r i e s t h e Bank p u t s t o g e t h e r and c h a i r s a c o n s o r t i u m o f t h e p r i n c i p a l b i l a t e r a l and mu1 ti l a t e r a l l e n d e r s t h a t c o o r d i n a t e dono r c o n t r i b u t i o n s and p o l i c i e s . I n many c o u n t r i e s , such as Bangladesh, t h e Bank i s a u i e t l y o l a c i r i q a d v i s o r s i n key m i n i s t e r i e s o f t h e gove rnmen t . One t r ump c a r d o f t h e Bank i s t h a t i t de te rm ines governments ' i n t e r n a t i o n a l c r e d i t r a t i n g s .

Loans go i n c r e a s i n g l y t o t h e w o r l d ' s most r e p r e s s i v e reg imes , t h o s e w i l l i n g t o imp lemen t f i s c a l measures d i c t a t e d b y t h e Bank - measures t h a t p e n a l i z e w o r k e r s and p e a s a n t s . F o u r c o u n t r i e s e x p e r i e n c i n g m i l i t a r y t a k e - o v e r s and m a r t i a l l aw s i n c e t h e e a r l y 1 9 7 0 ' s - A r g e n t i n a , C h i l e , t h e P h i l i p p i n e s and Uruguay - w i l l r e c e i v e a s e v e n f o l d i n c r e a s e i n Wor ld Bank l e n d i n g by 1979. Loans t o a l l o t h e r b o r r o w e r s wi 11 i n c r e a s e o n l y t h r e e t i m e s .

No A c c o u n t a b i l i t y

The Bank i s i n no sense a d e m o c r a t i c o r even b r o a d l y r e p r e s e n t a t i v e i n s t i t u t i o n . I t i s a c c o u n t a b l e t o no one b u t i t s e l f . And i t w o u l d be n a i v e t o e x p e c t t h a t such a p o w e r f u l i n s t i t u t i o n can o r w i l l e f f e c t i v e l y m o n i t o r i t s e l f .

Bank documents a r e s e c r e t . The Bank i s v i r t u a l l y u n s t u d i e d even by s o c i a l s c i e n t i s t s ; t h e r e a r e f e w e r t h a n a dozen a r t i c l e s and books a n a l y s i n g t h i s power fu l i n s t i t u t i o n . No s t a f f member w i l l t e s t i f y b e f o r e any c o n g r e s s i o n a l o r p a r l i a m e n t a r y h e a r i n g s . On l y r e c e n t l y has t h e bank begun t o go t h r o u g h t h e m o t i o n s o f s e c r e t e v a l u a t i o n s o f a11 t h e p r o j e c t s i t f u n d s . Those who have seen some r e p o r t s o f t h e B a n k ' s O p e r a t i o n s E v a l u a t i o n s Dena r tmen t t e l l u s t h a t t h e y were g r e a t l y " s a n i t i z e d " when t h e y we re l a t e r summarized f o r a Bank p u b l i c r e l a t i o n s p u b l i c a t i o n .

E v a l u a t i o n s a r e sometimes commissioned o f o u t s i d e c o n s u l t a n t s ; b u t how independ- e n t a r e t h e y , g i v e n t h a t t h e i r n e x t c o n t r a c t m i g h t come f r o m t h e Bank? One such m a j o r e v a l u a t i o n we h e a r d was c r i t i c a l . I t has been suppressed and t h e a u t h o r was o r d e r e d t o do a " r e - w r i t e " . P u b l i c r e p o r t s , we a r e t o l d , must be upbea t i n o r d e r t o g a i n s u p o o r t i n t h e congresses and p a r l i a m e n t s o f d o n o r c o u n t r i e s .

Wh i l e i n Bangladesh, i n f o r m e d f o r e i g n sou rces t o l d us t h a t r e c e n t l y a m i s s i o n had f l o w n i n f r o m Washington and ~ r o n o u n c e d t h e RD-1 program we d i s c u s s e d e a r l i e r a success "because i t i s based on sound p r i n c i o l e s " and t h a t i t s h o u l d be expanded. Ye t o n l y t h e day b e f o r e a Bangladesh government o f f i c i a l had shown us an i n t e r n a l Bank memorandum i n d i c t i n g e v e r y a s p e c t o f t h e i m p l e m e n t a t i o n o f t h e p r o j e c t and c o n c l u d i n g t h a t t h e co-op sys tem o p e r a t e s " e x c e s s i v e l y i n f a v o u r o f t h e more w e a l t h y f a r m e r s " .

Moreover , many l o c a l government n e g o t i a t o r s o f Bank l o a n s o f t e n a s p i r e t o a p o s i t i o n w i t h t h e Bank i n Washington. A r e t h e y a b o u t t o q u e s t i o n a Bank p r o j e c t ? As we were t o l d i n S r i Lanka,now t a k i n g mass i ve Bank l o a n s f o r a dam i r r i g a t i o n p r o j e c t , government e l i t e s i n t h e c a p i t a l a r e a1 r e a d y e x p e c t a n t a b o u t " n a v i n a a w h i s k e y " w i t h a11 t h e f o r e i g h e x p e r t s who come w i t h such a p r o j e c t . I n a l l , a f a i r l y c l o s e d c i r c u i t .

A c c o u n t a b l e t o no one, t h e Bank i s f r e e t o make w h a t e v e r g r a n d i o s e c l a i m s i t w ishes a b o u t t h e number o f p e o p l e who b e n e f i t f r om i t s p r o j e c t s . Mr . McNamara, f o r i n s t a n c e , w o u l d have us b e l i e v e t h e Bank ' s a g r i c u l t u r a l and r u r a l deve lop - ment program w i l l " r e a c h " 60 m i l l i o n i n t h e " p o v e r t y t a r g e t g r o u p " by l e n d i n g d u r i n g 1975-1979. The Bank, you see, l i k e s t o c o u n t b e n e f i c i a r i e s by t o t a l l i n g up t h e number o f p e o p l e l i v i n g i n t h e a r e a where a Bank p r o j e c t i s t o t a k e p l a c e . T h i s i s e q u i v a l e n t t o a r g u i n g t h a t a dam i n Pa luba, C a l i f o r n i a , b e n e f i t s t h e p o p u l a t i o n o f C a l i f o r n i a wh i ch i s 20 m i l l i o n , 4 m i l l i o n o f whom l i v e be low t h e p o v e r t y l i n e . Soon t h e t o t a l o f Door b e n e f i c i a r i e s i s l i k e l y t o be more t h a n t h e t o t a l number o f p o o r p e o p l e i n t h e w o r l d .

Some a t t h e Bank m i g h t r eason t h a t m e e t i n q t h e b a s i c needs o f t h e p o o r w o u l d p a c i f y t h o s e w o r k i n g t o a l t e r p r e s e n t s o c i a l s t r u c t u r e s . B u t , even i f t h i s be t h e g o a l , t h e i r p rograms a r e u l t i m a t e l y s e l f - d e f e a t i n g . I n t e r v e n i n g w i t h f u n d s f o r p r o f i t - g e n e r a t i n g i n v e s t m e n t s , w h i l e o p t i n g t o keep i n t a c t t h e s o c i a l s t r u c t u r e s t h a t g e n e r a t e p o v e r t y , o n l y s t r e n g t h e n s t h e g r i p o f e l i t e s . The r e s u l t i s t h a t t h e p o o r a r e even f u r t h e r i m p o v e r i s h e d .

The p r e c e d i n g C o l l i n s / L a p p e e f f o r t i n c r i t i c i z i n g Wor ld Bank p r o j e c t s i s , i n a sense, l a u d a b l e . The a u t h o r s v o i c e t h e i r a r t i c u l a t e c r i t i c i s m f r o m t h e o u t s i d e o f t h a t p o w e r f u l i n s t i t u t i o n w h i c h " i s a c c o u n t a b l e t o no one b u t i t s e l f " . They a l s o w r i t e w i t h a l o t o f sympathy f o r t h e p l i g h t o f t h e peop les ( n o t t h e governments) o f t h e T h i r d Wor ld .

The a r t i c l e has, however , a m a j o r s h o r t c o m i n n : i > c r i t i c i z e s Wor ld Bank o p e r a t i o n s w i t h o u t d i s c u s s i n g t h e o v e r a l l o rob lern o f mu1 t i l a t e r a l a s s i s t a n c e , o f w h i c h t h e y a r e a p a r t , and a p p a r e n t l y w i t h o u t c o n s i d e r i n g t h e e f f e c t o f such c r i t i c i s m on t h e f a b r i c o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l c o o p e r a t i o n . T h i s i s t a n t a - mount t o a q u o t a t i o n o u t o f c o n t e x t , and t h e a r t i c l e s h o u l d t h e r e f o r e be l o o k e d a t w i t h c a u t i o n .

Who i s t h e aud ience? What a r e t h e u n d e r l y i n g v a l u e judgements o f t h e a u t h o r s ? I f t h e aud ience i s t h e "Amer ican t a x p a y e r " who i s asked by h i s A d m i n i s t r a t i o n t o s u p p l y some o f t h e f unds f o r , say , r e p l e n i s h m e n t o f t h e IDA, he ( p a r t i c u l a r l y i f he s t a n d s on t h e r i g h t w i n g o f s o c i e t y ) may w e l l f i n d i n t h e a r t i c l e a n o t h e r s e t o f w o n d e r f u l excuses t o do l e s s t h a n n o t h i n g f o r T h i r d Wor ld deve lopment . Shou ld t h i s be t h e c o n c l u s i o n o f t h e a r t i c l e 7

A l o n g t h e s e l i n e s , t h e h a r d d a t a exposed b y t h e a r t i c l e w o u l d be so many more n a i l s i n t h e c o f f i n o f t h e m u l t i l a t e r a l sys tem. B u t , i s t h a t fair? I s i t w i s e t o p a r t i c i p a t e i n t h e d e s t r u c t i o n o f t h e m u l t i l a t e r a l sys tem - t o s e n d t h e IBRD, UNDP e t c . , down t h e d r a i n based on some f l a s h e s o f t h e i r i nadequacy and wasteage? I s i t i n t h e i n t e r e s t o f t h e T h i r d Wor ld t o t u r n o f f t h e t a p - t o r e f u s e r e p l e n i s h m e n t o f IDA funds?

Amer i can t a x p a y e r s and Bank c r i t i c s i n t h e T h i r d M o r l d may o f c o u r s e - f o r d i f f e r e n t r easons - l e g i t i m a t e l y c o n t i n u e t o work on t h e d e s t r u c t i o n o f t h e mu1 t i l a t e r a l sys tems. I n b o t h cases i t i s f a s i o n a b l e t o do so, and t h e arguments i n f a v o u r o f such a p o l i c y may be good a t t h e moment. T h i r d W o r l d c r i t i c s may a r 5 w f o r d e l i n k i n g and may r e f u s e t o c o n t i n u e s w a l l o w i n g excess c r e d i t f r o m t h e N o r t h , h o p i n g t h a t some th ing new may r i s e f r o m t h e ashes o f t h e p o s t - w a r e r a . B u t , what s h o u l d t h a t b e ?

A n o t h e r p o l i c y may be t o r e c o g n i z e two t h i n g s : ( i j t h a t t h e mu1 t i l a t e r a l sys tem i s u n w i e l d y , a r r o g a n t , and promotes n ia ldeve lopment w h i l e h e l p i n g t h e r i c h , b u t ( i i ) t h a t i t can be r e d i r ~ r t e d b y D r e s s u r e f r o m T h i r d l d o r l d governments . I t i s a f a c t t h a t t h e s e governments have no s m a l l i n f l u e n c e o v e r t h e a l l o c a t i o n o f Wor ld Bank c r e d i t s i n t h e i r own c o u n t r i e s . Hhy d o n ' t t h e y t r y t o f i n d good p r o j e c t s c o n c e i v e d by and f o r t h e p e o p l e t h a t p romo te s e l f - r e l i a n c e , access t o resou rces and c a p i t a l - and can be s o l d t o t h e Wor ld Bank? The p r e s s u r e on t h e Bank t o i n v e s t i t s f unds i s so g r e a t t h a t i t may be v e r y h a r d f o r t h e Bank t o r e f u s e good p r o j e c t s - i f t h e y w o u l d o n l y be p romo ted b y T h i r d Wor ld governments .

The " g h o s t w r i t e r s " and "Bank m i s s i o n s " t h a t f l y i n t o T h i r d Wor ld c a p i t a l s " a t no s m a l l expense f r o m Wash ing ton " c o u l d be used as a r e s o u r c e f o r t h i s pu rpose . Some o f them m i g h t l i k e t h a t i d e a and may h e l p s e l l i n g good p r o - j e c t s t o t h e Bank. Compared w i t h t h e more d i r e c t t i e s t h a t may be imposed b y b i l a t e r a l sou rces , t h e mu1 t i l a t e r a l sys tem i s c h a r a c t e r i z e d b y a v e r y complex web o f " s t r i n q s " - w i t h i d e o l o q i c a l and commerc ia l i n t e r e s t s

p u l l i n g i n v a r i o u s d i r e c t i o n s . T h i s w idens t h e scope f o r n e g o t i a t i o n and f o r p r e s s u r e , s o t h a t i t s h o u l d be more l i k e l y t h a t T h i r d Wor ld b o r r o w e r s can p u t i t on t h e r i g h t t r a c k , i n t h e i n t e r e s t o f t h e i r p e o p l e s . Why t u r n o f f t h e m u l t i l a t e r a l t a p b e f o r e enough s e r i o u s a t t e m p t s have been made t o channe l i t s r e s o u r c e s i n t h e p r o p e r d i r e c t i o n ?

'STATISTIC

I t ;..?\ .? l l ~ I' l \ l l l l l ' /

l l l ' -dll l i ' pi'l ( J ^ l i J

one 11i1111071

per a m

NOTES /FOOTNOTES

L A DEMOCRATIE ECOLOPIQUE

P o u r une EUROPE DIFFERENTE, vers une democrat ie eco log ique" . M a n i f e s t e de ? ' A c t i o n Ecologique Europeenne, dans l e d d e l a ~ a ~ a ~ e e l e c t o r a l e pour 1 e Par lement Europeeen. La "D6mocratie eco loq ique" y e s t a i n s i d e f i n i e :

La democrat ie eco log ique se fonde s u r une n o u v e l l e a l l i a n c e e n t r e l'homme e t l a n a t u r e e t s u r l a reconnaissance de l a n a t u r e de l'homme. Cela i m o l i q u e un chan- qement r a d i c a l dans l a h i e r a r e h i e des p r i o r i t e s e t des v a l e u r s , p a r exemple: - compter s u r s o i ( ' s e l f - r e l i a n c e ' ) en t a n t q u ' i n d i v i d u ou que groupe au l i e u

d 'abandoner l a c o n d u i t e de sa v i e e n t r e 1es mains d ' " e x p e r t s U ;

- promouvoi r des c o l l e c t i v i t e s 2 l a mesure e t au s e r v i c e de l'homme: des us ines , des eco les , des h o p i t a u x , des s e r v i c e s d i v e r s r e p a r t i s s u r 1 'ensemble du t e r r i t o i r e , p l u t 6 t que de s 'adonner au mythe du g igan t i sme c o n c e n t r a t i o n n a i r e e t u rba in ;

- i n t e g r e r a l a v i e s o c i a l e 1es jeunes, l e s femmes, 1es o u v r i e r s , l e s malades, l e s v i e i l l a r d s . . . au l i e u de l e u r segrega t ion .

Cela imp1 ique encore:

- que r i e n ne se fasse au n iveau n a t i o n a l q u i p o u r r a i t se d e c i d e r au n i veau l o c a l ou r e g i o n a l ;

- une r e p a r t i t i o n e q u i t a b l e des emplo is assuran t un t r a v a i l q u i a i t un sens p l u t 6 t que de p e r d r e sa v i e 2 l a gagner dans d'enormes us ines t o u j o u r s p lus automat isees e t a l i e n a n t e s au nom de l a p r o d u c t i v i t e ;

- de r e c o n n a i t r e l a n a t u r e comme f a c t e u r p r i m o r d i a l d 'une s o c i e t e s t a b l e e t p o u r t a n t dynamique.

E t c ' e s t pourquoi l a c o n s e r v a t i o n des ressources n a t u r e l l e s , des mineraux, des combust ib les, l ' a r r e t d e f i n i t i f des c e n t r a l e s e t des armements n u c l e a i r e s son t au coeur de l a democrat ic eco log ique .

1 / Rappor t au Club de Yome par T h i e r r y de M o n t b r i a l -

Ce nouveau r a p p o r t au Club de Rome e s t un bon o u t i l de t r a v a i l : l e s annexes son t r i c h e s e t t r e s c l a i r e m e n t presentees. Presque t o u t e s l e s donnees techn iques , 6conomiques e t f i n a n c i e r e s du probleme son t b i e n analysees e t comment6es. L ' e n - semble donne une r e c o n f o r t a n t e impress ion de s o l i d i t @ . Les recommandations de Rober t L a t t e s e t C a r r o l l W i l son p a r a i s s e n t empreintes d ' u n e sagesse mesuree mais l u c i d e : l a c r i s e de 1 ' e n e r g i e ne p e u t que s ' a g g r a v e r au cours des prochaines decennies, l e s temps de reponse a nos d e c i s i o n s s o n t t r e s longs , i 1 nous f a u t done a g i r v i t e e t fermement, e t c . . .

E t n n u r t a n t , s i l ' o n regarde de p l u s p res l e t e x t e de T h i e r r y de M o n t b r i a l , on ne peu t q u ' e t r e f r a p p e de ses c u r i e u x s i l e n c e s e t t o u r s de passe-passe. T r o i s exemples.

I/ J.C.La t tes , P a r i s , Septembre 1978, 320 pages -

Concernant l e s choix des f i l i e r e s nuclea i res , on s a l t que l e reacteur americain a eau legere , aujourd'hui grand vainqueur mondial, n ' e t a i t pas, e t dp bien lo in , la meil leure des solu t ions techniquement possible pour produire de 1 ' e l e c t r i c i t 6 a grande eche l l e , mais f u t choisi par 1e souci des constructeurs de r en t ab i l i s e r au plus v i t e l e s investissements de l a guerre f ro ide pour l a propulsion des sous- marins. Passons : l e voile pudique j e t e sur l e s or ig ines e s t une lo i du genre. 11 e s t plus surprenant de voir l ' a u t e u r escamoter l ' en j eu majeur qui oppose Francais e t Americains au s u j e t du surregen6rateur : indispensable d u x yeux d u gouvernement f rancais , extremement dangereux aux yeux du president Carter e t de ses conse i l l e r s , t an t a l ' ega rd de l a s ecu r i t e des reacteurs eux-memes qu 'a 1 'egard de l a pro1 i f e r a t ion des armes atorniques .!I

Sur l ' i n t e r p r e t a t i o n des mouvements ant inuclea i res , Thierry de Montbrial prend pretexte du rapport d 'un Comite des Sages des t ine an Parti Socia l i s te- pour y denoncer une machine de guerre pol i t ique contre 1e systeme en place. Exemplaire contresens : Alain Touraine plaidai t pour l a mai t r i se soc i a l e de l a technologic. Qu'un t e l langage puisse e t r e present6 comme revolutionnaire en d i t long su r l a subordination du pouvoi r pol i t ique aux croyances technocratiques . Quant aux or iq ines du quadruplement des prix dii pe t ro le de 1973, l ' a u t e u r expedie en deux l ignes 1 'accablant doss ier des complici t e s americaines dress6 par John Blair^/ e t oPpenhein5' : i1 s e r a i t malseant de reconnattre que 1'OPEP fUt a lors l ' ex@cuteur d'un rsglement de compte dans l a competition c a p i t a l i s t e t ransa t lan- t ique . L ' a u t e u r s e contentera de r eg re t t e r ~nigmatiquementC81'absence de reaction" des pays dominants en 1974, Bizarre , b i z a r r e . . ,

A u t o t a l , l a presentation de Thierry de Montbrial, - accentuant l a f a t a l i t e technique du nuclea i re , amenuisant 5 p l a i s i r l e s degres de l i b e r t e d'une pol i t ique energetique socialement responsable - s e donne pour ce q u ' e l l e e s t : un habil lage consciencieux des posit ions o f f i c i e l l e s du gouvernement f r anca i s .

Louis Puiseux, CIRED, Paris ----

z ' ~ i s e en garde vigoureusement repr ise par l e Programme des Nations Unies pour 1 ' Envi ronnement ( P N U E ) l o r s de s a reunion du 21 au 24 novembre a Geneve. (Cf. Le Monde du 2 decembre 1978, p.36).

?'Pour une aut re pol i t ique nucl eai r e , rapport du Comi t e "nucl eai r e , envi - ronnement e t soc i e t e " au Par t i Soc ia l i s t e , redig6 par Alain Touraine, Jean- Marie Martin, Marcel F ro i s sa r t , Lew Kowarski , Ignacy Sachs, e t c . , preface par Francois Mitterand, e t f o r t discretement ed i t6 par Flammarion l a v e i l l e des e lec t ions l eg i s l a t i ves (mars 1978).

4/ The control of o i l , New York, Pantheon Books, 1976. - - - . - - - - -. 5/ Why o i l prices go u p : we pushed them, Foreiqn Policy, Winter 1976-1977

( i l ' a i p r i s ce doss ier au chapi t re 2 de l a Babel nuclea i re , edi t ions Gal i lee , -

novembre 1977).

. Ashok Par thasara th i * , E l e c t r o n i c s i n deve lop ing c o u n t r i e s : i s s u e s i n t r a n s f e r and development o f technology (UN Document TD/B/C. 6/34, 1978)

E l e c t r o n i c s " conveys t o t h e p ro fane the image o f a h i g h l y technology and c a p i t a l - i n t e n s i v e i n d u s t r y , a c c e s s i b l e o n l y t o "advanced" i n d u s t r i a l i z e d c o u n t r i e s . Th is s tudy d e m y s t i f i e s the i n d u s t r y ; i t shows how some T h i r d World c o u n t r i e s have en te red i t , how o the rs can f o l l o w and how the i n d u s t r y can be guided a long a need-o r ien ted pa th . As always, one may ask t o what e x t e n t t h e I n d i a n exper ience - on which t h i s s tudy l a r g e l y draws - i s o f va lue t o s m a l l e r , l e s s i n d u s t r i a l i z e d T h i r d World c o u n t r i e s . I n t h i s case, t h e answer seems t o be p o s i t i v e ; t h e i n d u s t r y i s l a b o u r i n t e n s i v e , produces h i g h o u t p u t i n r e l a t i o n t o c a p i t a l i n v e s t e d , and can be v i a b l e on a r e l a t i v e l y smal l s c a l e o f o p e r a t i o n . Moreover i t o f f e r s scope f o r i n d u s t r i a l co -opera t ion among T h i r d World c o u n t r i e s perhaps w i t h some h i g h technology i n p u t f rom " s m a l l e r developed c o u n t r y compan( ies)" .

. John Wi l l i amson , The F a i l u r e o f World Monetary Reform, 1971-1974 (New York U n i v e r s i t y Press, New York, 1977)

An account o f the proceedings o f the Committee o f Twenty f o r I n t e r n a t i o n a l Monetary Reform. The r e f o r m e f f o r t f a i l e d due t o a l a c k o f p o l i t i c a l w i l l . I t would be u s e f u l t o compare the r e j e c t i o n o f the Keynes p roposa ls a t B r e t t o n Woods and the Commit tee 's f a i l u r e t o i n f l u e n c e the Second Amendment. What a re the p o l i t i c a l f o r c e s a t work i n these two n o t d i s s i m i l a r s i t u a t i o n s .

. Pover ty and Landlessness i n Rura l A s i a (ILO, 1977)

The i n c r e a s e i n As ian p o v e r t y has been a s s o c i a t e d " n o t w i t h a f a l l b u t w i t h a r i s e i n c e r e a l p r o d u c t i o n p e r head, the main component o f t h e d i e t o f the poor " . I n c e n t i v e s t o expand o u t p u t a lone a re n o t enough. " E f f e c t i v e demand f o r g r e a t e r f o o d o u t p u t " has t o be c r e a t e d among t h e poor .

. T.S.Bowles, Survey of A t t i t u d e s t o w a r d s Overseas Development (Commissioned by the UK M i n i s t r y o f Overseas Development)

Mrs. J u d i t h H a r t i n h e r fo reword s t a t e s t h a t " the o p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r mutual b e n e f i t which w i l l come f rom the development o f t h e poore r c o u n t r i e s , and o u r h e l p f o r t h a t process, a r e j u s t n o t be ing seen. Too many a t t i t u d e s a r e s t i l l moulded a lmos t e n t i r e l y by i r r a t i o n a l f e e l i n g s , misconcept ions and p r e j u d i c e " P u b l i c i t y o f t h e w e a l t h o f M idd le East o i l c o u n t r i e s , domest ic economic d i f f i c u l t i e s and i m m i g r a t i o n appear t o have had an e f f e c t on t h e n e g a t i v e a t t i t u d e s o f those quest ioned.

. Miguel S. Wionczek, LDC E x t e r n a l Debt and t h e World Economy ( E l Co leg io de Mexico and Cen t re de Es tud ios Economicos y Soc ia les de l Te rce r Mundo, Mexico C i t y )

The volume c o n t a i n s the proceedings o f a p r i v a t e i n t e r n a t i o n a l meet ing o f some 30 e x p e r t s o rgan ized a t t h e end o f October 1977 i n Mexico C i t y under t h e

* Study by t h e UNCTAD s e c r e t a r i a t i n co -opera t ion w i t h Mr. Ashok P a r t h a s a r a t h i , Sec re ta ry , E l e c t r o n i c s Commission, Government o f I n d i a , i n h i s personal c a p a c i t y . Ashok P a r t h a s a r a t h i i s a member o f the Counc i l o f IFDA.

auspices o f the two I n s t i t u t e s . I t p r o v i d e s a comprehensive coverage o f t h e T h i r d Wor ld E x t e r n a l Debt i s s u e s .

. I s m a i l - S a b r i Abda l la , "He te rogene i t y and d i f f e r e n t i a t i o n - t h e end f o r t h e T h i r d Wor ld?" , Development D ia logue (1978:Z) . T h i s i s s u e a l s o i n c l u d e s a s e c t i o n on "Another Development i n Educa t ion" and "Another Development i n Law".

. Marxism, Democracy and t h e R i g h t s o f Peoples / Marxisme, Democratic e t d r o i t s des peuples, Homage t o / Hommage 2 L e l i o Basso (M i lan : Franco Ange l i E d i t o r e , 1979) w i t h c o n t r i b u t i o n s f rom Ahmed Ben Salah, R ichard F a l k , Jose Echever r ia and many o t h e r s . L e l i o Basso d i e d l a s t December, s h o r t l y a f t e r r e c e i v i n g t h i s f e s t c h r i f t .

. Les s e p t p o i n t s ca rd inaux - O r i e n t a t i o n s eco- log iques (GenGve : I n s t i t u t u n i v e r s i t a i r e d ' e t u d e s du developpement, 1978)

. P i e r r e Bungener, Le developpement in-sense, I t i n e r a i r e s pour un combat (Lausanne : L 'Age dlHomme, 1978)

. C a r l Stone and Aggrey Brown (ed . ) , Essays on Power and Change i n Jamaica ( K i n g s t o n : Jamaica P u b l i s h i n g House, 1977, r e p r i n t e d 1978)

. "Fu tu re Research - P lann ing - D e c i s i o n Making", Proceedings o f t h e World F u t u r e S tud ies F e d e r a t i o n con fe rence h e l d a t Jablonna, Poland, 22-24 A p r i l 1977, (Warsaw: Polska 2000, P o l i s h Academy o f Sciences, The Research and P r o g n o s t i c Committee Poland 2000, Spec ia l i s s u e 1978)

NEWS FROM IFDA

A t i t s l a s t meet ing, t h e E x e c u t i v e Committee o f IFDA has e l e c t e d Ahmed Ben Salah ( T u n i s i a ) and Jan M e i j e r (Ne ther lands ) as co-chairmen o f t h e Foundat ion f o r 1979 and 1980. Co-chairmen a r e e l e c t e d f o r a two-year non- immediate ly renewable p e r i o d . The co-chairmen f o r 1977 and 1978 were Mahbub u1 Haq ( P a k i s t a n ) and Maur ice F. S t rong (Canada).

The Counc i l o f IFDA now groups 43 members f rom 30 c o u n t r i e s o f which 28 members f rom 19 T h i r d World c o u n t r i e s . I n a d d i t i o n t o t h e 37 members l i s t e d i n =A Doss ie r 1 (January 1978) , members i n c l u d e s R . N i t a Barrow (Barbados) , D i r e c t o r o f t h e C h r i s t i a n Medica l Commission a t t h e World Counc i l o f Churches; G a b r i e l Garc ia Marquez (Colombia) , w r i t e r ; Branko Horva t (Yugos lav ia ) , D i r e c t o r o f t h e I n s t i t u t e o f Economic S tud ies , I d r i s s J a z a i r y ( A l g e r i a ) , Deputy S e c r e t a r y General f o r I n t e r n a t i o n a l Cooperat ion, M i n i s t r y o f F o r e i g n A f f a i r s ; Mircea M a l i t z a (Romania), P r o f e s s o r a t t h e U n i v e r s i t y o f Bucharest , and L u i s Matos Azocar (Venezuela) , D i r e c t o r o f t h e Cen t re de E s t u d i o s de l a Rea l idad Lat inoamer icana.

Documents

and the periphery (E.A. Brett) · A. Rahman, P. Wignaraja) . Strategies of implementation of rural development programmes in India ... Unity for a new order (Julius K. Nyerere)