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Analytical Fire Modeling: Analytical Fire Modeling: Fire in it’s Environment Fire in it’s Environment

Christopher G. MorrisonNicholas J. Kutac

Rio Rancho High SchoolTeam # 077

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Project OverviewProject Overview

Significance Problem Definition Previous Year’s Progress New Research Current Program– Forest Fire Movement– Heat and Fire Flow

Progress To Date

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SignificanceSignificance

Cerro Grande - 2000– Burned 47,650 acres of federal land– Cost 10 million dollars to contain

Yellowstone - 1988– Burned 793,000 acres (36% of park)– Cost 120 million dollars to contain

Michigan - 1871

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Problem DefinitionProblem Definition

How to show more realistic fire-spread

Find more dynamic math models

Look at fire spread in 3-dimensions

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Last Year’s ProgressLast Year’s Progress

Heat Model– Averaging equation

Environment modeling

FOR MORE INFO...

Link to last year’s final report by Chris Morrisonhttp://www.challenge.nm.org/archive/04-05/finalreports/53.pdf

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Fire MethodologyFire Methodology

Fire FactsHeat FactsFuel Facts– Flash points– Crown and Floor Fires

Environmental Factors–Wind, Humidity, Ambient Temperature,

Forest Fuels, Elevation

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New Research - ContactsNew Research - Contacts

Andrea Rodriguez, USFS Cartographer– Geospatial contact, Geospatial Service &

Technology Center– Real data for terrain and ground cover– Meta-data and raster difficult to interpret– Unable to incorporate this year

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New Research - Farsite ModelNew Research - Farsite Model

Developed by US Forest ServiceIncorporates Huygen’s principlesFire expansion – Similar

Wind and Fueleffect– Different

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New Research - Fire SpreadNew Research - Fire Spread

Huygen’s Principle– Processed terrain– Several variables

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Current Program - AlgorithmCurrent Program - Algorithm

Two Parts– Heat Flow– Fire Flow

Program Base– Patch level of forest exactness –Mini-patch level of fire exactness

See program (alt-tab)

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Program - Heat FlowProgram - Heat Flow

Everyday OccurrencesNewton’s Law of Cooling

Fourier’s Law of Conduction

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Program - Fire ExpansionProgram - Fire Expansion

Locates perimeter Expands out –Max Spread Rate – Spread Rate

Plots X new fires

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Program - Progress to Date Program - Progress to Date Inputs – Fuel type based on color– Possibly elevation– Environmental Factors

Outputs– Size, Damage, Heat

Validation– Comparisons

Successes– New inventive fire program design

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Program - AssumptionsProgram - AssumptionsAssumptions– Fire Flow is elliptical– Heat Flow and Fire Flow are separate,

related elements– Newton’s Law and Fourier’s law control

heat Flow

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Work to Be DoneWork to Be Done

Before Final Evaluation– Program • Connect Heat and Fire Flow• Add environmental Factors• Add Spark Fires• Add Crown Fires

–Web site– Final Report• Get started

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Research BibliographyResearch Bibliography Bonsor, K. (2004) How Wild Fires Work Retrieved October 3rd 2005 from

http://science.howstuffworks.com/wildfire.htm Diaz, J.C. (2002). Fourier’s law retrieved on December 6th 2005 from

http://www.mcs.utulsa.edu/~class_diaz/cs4533/flowheat/node4.html#SECTION00121000000000000000

EFunda.com (2005). Heat Transfer. EFounda.com. Retrieved December 12th 2005 from http://www.efunda.com/formulae/heat_transfer/home/overview.cfm

Finey, M. (2002) Austrailian Mathematical Society Fire growth using minimum travel time methods

Harris, T. (2005). How Wild Fire Works Retrieved December 13th 2005 from http://science.howstuffworks.com/fire.htm

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Bibliography - ContinuedBibliography - Continued Masse, B. & Nisengard, J. (2003). Cerro Grange Fire Assessment Project

Cultureal Resources Report No. 211. O’Driscoll, P. (2005). Studies at odds over logging after wildfires. USA Today

Nov. 2nd

Rona, A. (2003). Conduction. Retrieved December 6th, 2005 http://www.le.ac.uk/engineering/ar45/eg1100/eg1100w/node12.html

Taftan Data (1998). Fourier's Law of Conduction. Retrieved December 6th, 2005 http://www.taftan.com/thermodynamics/FOURIER.HTM

www.nifc.gov (last updated, 2002). Historical Wildfire Statistics. Retrieved December 6th 2005 http://www.nifc.gov/stats/historicalstats.html

Fire Picture Thanks to www.StrangeCosmos.com