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Analyst Memo - Mytilinaios

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Page 1: Analyst Memo - Mytilinaios

This presentation should not be considered as an investment proposal or as a buy/sell suggestion 1

BETA Securities Member of the Athens Stock Exchange

Memo

MYTIL.GA (MYTr.GA)/METKA.GA (METKAr.GA)

Thursday, January 23, 2014 Energy/EPC/Metallurgy

Company Description

Mytilineos Group is a diversified industrial holding company, active in mining metal trading, EPC and electricity generation. In the mining business it is active mainly through Aluminium of Greece, the largest vertically integrated aluminium company in SE Europe. Metka (50% owned, listed on ATHEX) is emerging as an important regional engineering company with a focus on turn-key thermal power plants. Mytilineos is also one of the most important players in the domestic electricity market operating three thermal power plants with total capacity of 1,200 MW.

Stock Data

Reuters Ric MYTr.AT

Bloomberg Code MYTIL.GA

Closing Price (€) € 6.05

Market Cap € 668,400,000

Number of shares 116,915,862

Free Float 63.0%

52 Week High € 6.60

52 Week Low € 3.38

Stock chart (52 weeks)

February March April May June July August September October November December 2014 February

ΜΥΤΙΛ (5.93000, 6.08000, 5.80000, 6.05000, +0.16000)

Relative Performance (52 weeks)

2013 February March April May June July August September October November December 2014 February

Performance (32.9670), Performance (28.3486)(Γ∆)

Analyst

Manos Chatzidakis

Head of analysis

Tel: +30 210 64.78.755

Mail: [email protected]

Annual meeting with analysts takeaways Briefing

On 21-Jan-2014 we had the opportunity to attend Mytilineos Group presentation regarding the evaluation of 2013 and the prospects of 2014. During the annual presentation the CEO and chairman of the Group Mr. Mytilineos referred to various issues covering all segments of interest of the group activities: In specifics:

EPC Sector (METKA)

METKA is seeking new projects in Northern Africa while Syria ΙΙ €700m budgeted project is highly likely very possible to restart in 2014. Recall that the recently awarded project of €226m in Greece regarding Ergose is funded by "ESPA” – EU subsidised thus effectively reducing receivables risk. The devaluation of the Turkish lira is a not considered as a major threat for the Group since it has completed the projects in Turkey while any other project that may be awarded in the future will be US dollar denominated. Management expects a strong year across all lines while METKA remains the cash cow of the Group with an estimated Net Cash position of € 200mn at the end of 2013, which could lead to generous dividends or capital returns.. We expect positive developments in the near term regarding new projects in Libya, Algeria and Iraq.

Energy Division

Energy segment will post satisfactory results as during the 9M13 period electricity demand was strong in Greece while in Q4 the group will receive higher capacity certificates. Energy demand in 2014 should be slightly increased in the 0-2% range with better outlook for SMP (system marginal prices) while lower cost of natural gas should benefit energy production. A reduction in supply prices from Gazprom will have a positive effect on EBITDA by c. EUR20m while a retroactive application of the reduced price could generate significant one-off gains between €15m - €60m subject to the retroactive period taken into account (6,12 or 18 months). In the investment front the Group plans to install another 70MW of wind capacity during the next two years.

Aluminium of Greece (AoG)

Aluminium of Greece has completed c. 90% of the “mellon” project lowering operating cost by $125m setting a new cost production equilibrium at 1,800 – 1,850 $/tn. New tariff agreement with PPC remains a key issue as management seems quite sceptical to continue its smelting business if significant higher tariffs will be applied by PPC. Low prices in LME are offset by higher premiums (currently at 300 – 400 $/tn). Optimism regarding LME prices is justified by increased global demand due to developments related to new applications in the auto industry, which will involve the use of more Aluminium in the construction process. We consider increased capacity to 185,000 tons (plus10,000 tons) in 2014 as a positive catalyst, which along with serious cost cutting efforts could increase divisional EBITDA to €90m from €20m in 2013. Finally, AoG has extended Glencore contract thus securing a significant amount of dry alumina and aluminium production (~30%) at a10% premium vs. LME spot prices.

Debt – Bond Issuance

. Following the sale of a 5% stake that was classified as treasury stock and a 6% stake of Metka to Fairfax Group’s Net Debt was effectively reduced at €500m. Management targets a Net Debt/EBITDA ratio of 1-2x for 2014.. A floated bond issue is in the cards this year only if it makes financial sense as average interest for the Group stands at 6.5%. A lower “six” in our opinion could trigger a bond issuance that would be used for the refinancing of € 250- 300m of existing debt.

View

Management stated that 2013 annual results will be broadly in line with consensus (Turnover: €1.54bn, EBITDA €250m, Net €77.7m). Going forward we see lower risks ahead as METKA is being awarded new projects with high margins while Metallurgy has strong potential to take advantage of lower operational costs. Strong international presence (85% of AoG sales and 80% of METKA projects) offer geographical diversification while the recent arbitration ruling with PPC provides a good base for a new tariff agreement. We are buyers at current levels and we like both listed entities as they provide better visibility and improved environment for 2014.

Page 2: Analyst Memo - Mytilinaios

This presentation should not be considered as an investment proposal or as a buy/sell suggestion

Disclosure Appendix

RESPONSIBLE ENTITY

� Responsible Entity: Beta Securities

� Research Analysts: Manolis Chatzidakis Certified Equity Analyst

� Authority: Hellenic Capital Market Committee.

Analyst Certification Analysts identified in this report hereby certify that:

(α) All the views about the companies and securities contained in this report accurately reflect our personal views (b) No part of our compensation was or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views in thiresearch analysts strategists or research associates principally responsible for the preparation of this research report may

of work stock picking, client feedback, experience and overall firm prinvestment banking services provided by Beta Securities and its affiliates

Probable Conflict of Interest Beta Securities or its employees and directors may have a positiontake into account that Beta Securities might have a conflict of interest that could influence the integrity of the research

investment decisions taken out from this report. Important Disclosures

� The content of the research has not been sent to the above mentioned listed enterprises

� Equity Analysts in order to provide the best analysis for the companies mentioned in

domestic and international press.

� Beta Securities will issue equity reports according to companies mentioned in this report news

� The opinions, judgments and estimates in this report express the view of each equity analyst on that date and are subject to change without

� All equity research reports are written by the equity research department with absolute discretion without the

company and released at the same time to both the public and the company

� The information contained in these reports and any opinion expressed

securities or any opinions, futures or other derivatives related to such se

obtained from sources that Beta Securities believes to be reliable we do not guarantee itscondensed.

Share Prices

� The aforementioned prices and related financial ratios regard the closing price of the previous day

Definition of risk

� Risk analysis: We evaluate risk based on fundamental analysis share price volatility and past forecasting experience

low risk, medium risk and high risk.

Definition of Investment ratings

� Outperform: The stock is expected to perform more than 10

� Neutral: The stock is expected to perform between –

� Underperform: The stock is expected to perform less than 10

Research Department Institutional Sales

Manos Chatzidakis Petros Papathanasiou 210-64.78.755 210-64.78.764 [email protected] [email protected]

Iakovos Kourtesis Vaggelis Charatsis

210-64.78.760 210-64.78.920 [email protected] [email protected]

Kontogouris Andreas 210-64.78.777 [email protected]

Konstantinos Makris 210-64.78.982 [email protected]

Sotiropoulou Frideriki

210-64.78.792 [email protected]

Beta Securities S,A,

Member of the Athens Stock Exchange Member of the Athens Derivatives Market

International Markets, Portfolio Management, Consulting Services

29, Alexandras Av, P.C. 114 73, Athens Τel: 210 64 78 900 | Fax: 210 64 78 901 | Email: [email protected] | Web

should not be considered as an investment proposal or as a buy/sell suggestion

Chatzidakis Certified Equity Analyst Iakovos Kourtesis, Certified Equity Analyst.

) All the views about the companies and securities contained in this report accurately reflect our personal views (b) No part of our compensation was or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views in this reportresearch analysts strategists or research associates principally responsible for the preparation of this research report may depend on various factors such as quality

experience and overall firm profitability. The remuneration of analysts referred on the first page does not relate to any investment banking services provided by Beta Securities and its affiliates.

position; make markets or engage in any of the securities mentioned hereintake into account that Beta Securities might have a conflict of interest that could influence the integrity of the research. Beta Securities is not respo

The content of the research has not been sent to the above mentioned listed enterprises.

Equity Analysts in order to provide the best analysis for the companies mentioned in this report may make company visits

Beta Securities will issue equity reports according to companies mentioned in this report news, announcements, developments and market conditions

judgments and estimates in this report express the view of each equity analyst on that date and are subject to change without

All equity research reports are written by the equity research department with absolute discretion without the participation of other departments of the

company and released at the same time to both the public and the company.

The information contained in these reports and any opinion expressed does not constitute an offer or an invitation to make an offer to buy o

futures or other derivatives related to such securities (related investments).Although the information in this report has been

obtained from sources that Beta Securities believes to be reliable we do not guarantee its accuracy or fairness and such information may be incomplete or

The aforementioned prices and related financial ratios regard the closing price of the previous day.

fundamental analysis share price volatility and past forecasting experience. We distinguish risk into three levels:

Outperform: The stock is expected to perform more than 10.0% relative to the General Index in the next 12 months.

–10.0% and +10.0% relative to the General Index in the next 12 months

Underperform: The stock is expected to perform less than 10.0% relative to the General Index in the next 12 months.

International Stock Markets

Nicholaos Ritsonis 210-64.78.928 [email protected]

Konstantinos Boukas

210-64.78.995 [email protected]

Panos Biniaris 210-64.78.926 [email protected]

Consulting Services, On Line Trading

Web: www.beta.gr

should not be considered as an investment proposal or as a buy/sell suggestion 2

s report. The compensation of the depend on various factors such as quality

The remuneration of analysts referred on the first page does not relate to any

make markets or engage in any of the securities mentioned herein. Investors therefore should Beta Securities is not responsible for

this report may make company visits, access to the internet or read

developments and market conditions.

judgments and estimates in this report express the view of each equity analyst on that date and are subject to change without warning.

participation of other departments of the

constitute an offer or an invitation to make an offer to buy or sell any

Although the information in this report has been

accuracy or fairness and such information may be incomplete or

We distinguish risk into three levels:

0% relative to the General Index in the next 12 months.

Derivative Sales

Nick Zacharopoulos 210-64.78.946 [email protected]

EviTreka

210-64.78.786 [email protected]

Michalis Tzavlas 210-64.78.758 [email protected]