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ANALYST DAYS IN DUBAIGulf Overview
Sylvain Hijazi
10 March 2008
P 2
Iraq
IranIsrael
Jordan
Lebanon
Saudi Arabia
Syria
Yemen
Kuwait
BahrainQatar
UAEOman
Currencies: Linked to US$
GDP: 416 B.USD
Population: 12.1 million
Total Area: 430,000 sq.km
Installed Capacity: 53GW (GT 35 MW + ST 18 MW)
Transport Rail: 0 km
Geographical context
P 3
History of Gulf Countries (1/2)
Were under the British Military control
KUWAIT• The first country gained independence on June 19, 1961• Al-Sabah dynasty has had a close partnership with British Foreign relations and
defense since 1899OMAN
• The second country became independent on Nov.18, 1970• Sultan Qaboos bin Said Al-Said since 1970 (take over from his father)
QATAR• Became independent on Sept.3, 1971, Al-Thani family had relations with UK since
1850
P 4
History of Gulf Countries (2/2)
BAHRAIN• Became independent on Aug. 15, 1971, Al-khalifa family had close relations with UK
since 1870
UAE• The federation formed in Dec.2, 1971 with 6 Emirates (excluding Fujairah). Fujairah
joined the federation in early 1972 (originally the idea was to create the Federation with 9 Emirates)
• The Federation members are: Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Sharjah, Ajman, Fujairah, Ras Al-Khaimah and Umm Al-Quwain
P 5
Gulf Oil & Gas Reserves
Oil Gas
P 6
GCC Interconnection – Gas Link
Under construction Completed
• Actual Gas price 1.25$/Mbtu to 1.6$/Mbtu (still low versus other countries)• Gas price will be increased to 3$/Mbtu in 2010• Dolphin pipe line will start to feed by 2 bcf/d on next April 08 (instead of 1.2 bcf/d actual today)
P 7
Regional policy GCC Interconnection - Electricity Link
The interconnections are to be constructed in 3 phases and will provide 600 – 800 MW of power to Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar & UAE.
P 8
Regional policy GCC Interconnection – Rail Link
Project realisation may come by 2015
P 9
Economic situation
Macro Economic Data - Gulf Countries
(UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman & Kuwait)COUNTRY Area
(km 2)Pop u l a ti on (Mi l l i on )
Oi l Res erve (Bi l l i on Ba rrel s )
Oi l Prod. (M i l l i on Ba rrel s
Ga s Res erve (Tri l l i on M3)
Ga s Prod. (b cf/da y)
GDP (Bi l l i on US D)
GDP Per Ca p i ta (USD)
Reven u e (Bi l l i on US D)
Exp en d. (Bi l l i on US D)
Exp ort (Bi l l i on US D)
In p ort (Bi l l i on US D)
Cu rren cy Exc.Ra te Vs US D
UAE 90,599 4.5 97.8 2.410 6.06 4.45 189.6 36,222 7.75 7.75 165.2 118.7 AED 3.67
BAHRAIN 695.3 0.8 0.125 0.188 0.09 0.89 16.9 21,330 3.4 3 16.1 10.9 BHD 0.38
QATAR 11,437 1 15.5 0.790 25.78 3.8 65.8 57,000 20 18 50.5 26.7 QR 3.64
OMAN 309,500 2.6 5.6 0.97 0.95 1.431 40.5 13,609 11.5 12.5 50.5 18.6 RO 0.39
KUWAIT 17,818 3.2 101 2.490 1.56 0.84 103.4 30,188 46 37.6 63.9 32.400 KD 0.29
Gulf Region
430,049 12.1 220.03 6 .848 34.44 11.411 416 88.65 78.85 346.2 207.30
P 10
Bahrain
Bahrain was one of the first States in the Gulf to discover oil
The Kingdom of Bahrain is made up of 33 islands and is home to one of the largest aluminum smelters in the world.
Capital: Manama
GNI per capita: US$ 21,330
GDP: US$ 16.9 billion
Oil Reserves: 0.125 billion barrels
Oil Production: 0.188 million barrels per day
Population: 800,000
Area: 695.3 sq km
Exchange Rate: 0.38 Bahraini Dinar per US$
Gas Reserves: 0.09 trillion m3
Gas Production: 0.89 bcf/day
King: H.H. Sheikh HamadBin-Isa Al-Khalifah
Percentage Distribution of Population
Exp1%
National63%
TCN26%
Arabs10%
P 11
Kuwait
The State of Kuwait is a small, oil-rich country nestling at the top of the Gulf, flanked by large and powerful neighbours - Saudi Arabia to the South, Iraq to the North and Iran to the East.
Capital: Kuwait City
GNI per capita: US$ 30,188
GDP: US$ 103.4 billion
Oil Reserves: 101 billion barrels
Oil Production: 2.49 million barrels per day
Population: 3.2 million
Area: 17,818 sq km
Exchange Rate: 0.28 Kuwaiti Dinar per US$
Gas Reserves: trillion 1.56m3
Gas Production: 0.84 bcf/dayAmir : H.H. Sheikh Sabah
Al-Ahmad Al-jaber Al-Sabah
PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION OF POPULATIONTCN13%Exp
7%National
45%
Arabs35%
P 12
Oman
Sultanate of Oman is a well-off country with large oil and gas resources, a substantial trade surplus, and low inflation. Oil is the mainstay of the economy, providing around 40% of GDP.
Capital: Muscat
GNI per capita: US$13,609
GDP: US$ 40.5 billion
Oil Reserves: 5.6 billion barrels
Oil Production: 0.97 million barrels per day
Population: 2.6 million
Area: 309,500 sq km
Exchange Rate: 0.39 Riyal per US$
Gas Reserves: 0.95 trillion m3
Gas Production: 1.431 bcf/day
Sultan Qaboos bin Said Al Said
PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION OF POPULATION
National81%
Arabs3%
TCN15%Exp
1%
P 13
Qatar
Capital: Doha
Population: 1 million
The State of Qatar has developed from being one of the poorest Gulf States to become one of the richest. Natural Gas reserves 3rd
largest in the world.
Gas Reserves: 25.78 trillion m3
0
10
20
30
4050
60
70
80
90
RASGAS QATARGAS
(Contracted LNG exports million tonnes a year)
Area: 11,437 sq km
GNI per capita:US$ 57,000
GDP: US$ 65.8 billion
Exchange Rate: 1 Q Riyal = 3.64 per US$
Oil Reserves: 15.5 billion barrels
Oil Production : 0.790 million barrels per day
Gas Production: 3.8 bcf/day
Emir: H.H. Sheikh Hamad Bin-Khalifah
Al Thani
PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION OF POPULATION
National15%
Arabs32%
TCN41%
Exp12%
P 14
United Arab Emirates (UAE)
A federation of seven emirates formed in 1971: Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Ajman, Fujairah, Ras Al Khaimah, Sharjah and Umm Al Quwain. The UAE is governed by a Supreme Council of Rulers of each of the emirates and presided by Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan (Ruler of Abu Dhabi).
PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION OF POPULATION
National14%TCN
65%
Arabs16%
Exp5%
Capital: Abu Dhabi
GNI per capita: US$ 36,222
GDP : US$ 189.6 billion
Oil Reserves: 97.8 billion barrels
Gas Reserves: 6.06 trillion m3
Oil Production: 2.4 million barrels per day
Gas Production: 4.4 bcf/d
Population: 4.5 million
Area: 90,599 sq km
Exchange Rate: Dirhams 3.671 per US$ President H.H. Shaikh
Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan
P 15
UAE
UAE: Federation of 7 Emirates
EMIRATE RULER
ABU DHABI H.H.Shaikh Khalifa Bin Zayed Al Nahyan
DUBAI H.H.Shaikh Mohammad Bin Rashid Al Maktoum
SHARJAH H.H.Dr.Shaikh Sultan Bin Mohammed Al Qassimi
AJMAN H.H.Shaikh Humaid Bin Rashid Al Nuaimi
FUJAIRAH H.H.Shaikh Hamad Bin Mohammed Al Sharqi
RAS AL KHAIMAH
H.H.Shaikh Saqr Bin Mohammed Al Qassimi
UMM AL QUWAIN
H.H.Shaikh Rashid Bin Ahmed Al Moalla
P 16
Economic Context Gulf
Continuous high growth on Buildings & Infrastructure
High pressure to produce more Oil & Gas
Shift of Aluminium production to the Gulf (over 4 MT/Y to be built over the coming 12 years)
High Market Potential for Alstom
P 17
Dubai - Sheikh Zayed Road Development 1990-2010
1990 2003
Burj Dubai Project
Sheikh Zayed Road
Completion by March 20102007: Under Construction
P 18
Dubai – Building its Biggest and Prominent Projects
The World Jumeirah Lakes
The Palm-JumeirahDubai Marina
P 19
Economic Context – High Growth on Building & Infrastructure
P 20
Dubai Emirate
Registered Vehicles in Dubai Emirate
1150
780
568
491421389
354321294266
236213199
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Year
# of
Veh
. (in
100
0s)
# of Veh. (in 1000s)
Source: RTA - Dubai
P 21
Dubai Rail Projects - Phase Construction
Rashidiya
Depot
Union Square
American Univ.
Blue Line
Red Line
Original
Green Line
Purple Line
Blue
Lin
e Ex
tens
ion
Red Line Extension
Green Line Extension
Motor city Tram
BurjDubaiTram
Al SufouhTram
Red Line (From Rashidiya to University) 36 stations112 km
Green Line (From Abu Heil to Al Ras) 19 stations17 km
Purple Line : - From Dubai Airport to Jebel Ali International Airport
- Future Extension to Water Front
15 stations4 Stations
47 km
35 km
Blue Line (From Dubai Airport to Jebel Ali International Airport) 13 stations 90 km
P 22
Rail Projects – Abu Dhabi
P 23
Abu Dhabi - Prominent Projects
SARAYAH IN ABU DHABI
P 24
Growth in GCC Countries
PEARL QATAR
BARR AL JISSAH ISLANDTHE BLUE CITY OMAN
P 25
Growth in GCC Countries
TALA ISLAND
THE RAPID GROWTH & DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF REGION EQUATES TO A GREATER DEMAND FOR ELECTRICITY IN THE FUTURE.
SILK CITY IN KUWAIT
BAHRAIN FINANCIAL HARBOUR
P 26
Economic Context Gulf
Continuous high growth on Buildings & Infrastructure
High pressure to produce more Oil & Gas
Shift of Aluminium production to the Gulf (over 4 MT/Y to be built over the coming 12 years)
P 27
High pressure to produce more Oil
MB/d 2004 2010 2020 2030
World Demand 82,1 92,5 104,9 115,4
World Offer 82,1 92,5 104,9 115,4
OPEC Middle East 22,8 26,6 35,3 44,0
+ > 50%
Arab world holds 60% world oil reserves & 35% of Gas reserves
Source: World Energy Outlook
P 28
Oil Production
* Oil demand in 2008 will average 88 Million bpdSource: EIA / CIA)
P 29
Gas Production
P 30
Economic Context Gulf
Continuous high growth on Buildings & Infrastructure
High pressure to produce more Oil & Gas
Shift of Aluminium production to the Gulf (over 4 MT/Y to be built over the coming 12 years)
P 31
Global Aluminium Production Shift
1980 (16 Mt) 2006 (33.9 Mt) 2020 (57.5 Mt)
Europe, 22%
USA, 30%
China, 2%
Others , 19%
Middle East, 1%
Canada, 7%
Former USSR, 17%
Australia, 2%
Canada, 9%
Australia, 6%
China, 27%
Others , 21%
Former USSR, 12%
Europe, 12%
Middle East, 6%
USA, 7%
China, 25%
Others , 23%
Australia, 4%
Former USSR, 20%
Europe, 8%
USA, 5%
Middle East, 10%
Canada, 7%
Middle EastMainly Gulf Production 1.7 MT/Y
Middle EastMainly Gulf Production ≈ 5.7 MT/Y
Over of 4 MT/Y Production to be installed in the Gulf
P 32
Alstom Presence in the Gulf
SHARJAH – IN / GPS / Transport20 Persons
• 6 persons International Network/GPS • 13 persons Power Systems • 1 person Transport
ALSTOM Power Service140 Persons
• Main office & workshop at Jebel Ali Free Zone (Dubai)• Branch offices at Abu Dhabi, Bahrain & Iran
Total 160 Persons
P 33
Major Recent References
BAHRAIN• MEW – Hidd I & II 1000 MW (5 x GT13E2 + 1 x 300 MW ST + 3 HRSG) – Completed• MEW – Riffa Phase II – Upgrade 6 GT13ED to DM/EV Burners – Under realization• ALBA – PS4 650 MW (3 x GT13E2 + 2 x 150 MW ST + 4 HRSG) – CompletedKUWAIT• MEW – Al-Zour South 800 MW (5 x GT13E2 ) – Under realizationOMAN• Sohal – Alum.Smelter 1000 MW (4 x GT13E2 + 2 x 200 MW ST + 4 HRSG) – CompletedQATAR• QEWC – Ras Abu Fontas B + B1 1025 MW (8 x GT13E2) – CompletedUAE• DUBAL – Condor & Kestrel Add On ( 3 x 125 MW ST+ 6 HRSG behind 6 GT 9E) – Completed• DUBAL – Kestrel II 450 MW (2 x GT13E2 + 1 ST 125 MW + 2 HRSG) Completed• DUBAL – GTX 150 MW (1 x GT13E2 + 1 HRSG) – Under realization• DUBAL – Modernization of Kiln 1 to 5 (Fume Treatment) – Completed• DUBAL – Fume Treatment Plant for Potlines 7B, 9B and 5B & 6B – Under realization• EMAL – Fume Treatment & Flue Gas Desulphurization Plant – Under realization• ADWEA – Fujairah II – 2000 MW ( 5 x GT26 + 3 ST 220 MW + 5 HRSG) - Under realization
Order Intake year 2007/08: Over 1.5 Bn€
P 34
Conclusion
• Surplus cash / Liquidity (High Revenue)• Growing Economy & high demographic growth• High oil and gas reserves• Low cost of Energy • No corporate Tax or Individual Tax• Low custom Duties (4%)• Low cost of manpower (open market)
• Pre-planned ruling family succession / favorable Political Situation by comparison to region (American military base in Bahrain & Qatar)
• Safe place to live / moderate social setting
Attraction for more Investors in Industrial/ Petrochemical/Oil & Gas/
Aluminum Industries and Regional Hub for International Companies
GULF remains WORLD’s fastest growing area in POWER
DEMAND Per Capita
GULF becomes an increasing market for Rail Transport
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