Analysis of Record

Andy DevanasJeff Medlin

Charlie PaxtonPablo SantosDave SharpIrv WatsonPat Welsh

Suggestions and Concerns fromthe Florida Science & Operations Officers

High-Resolution Analysis (Td)

AoR Summit – 29 June 2004

Presented by Dave SharpNWS Melbourne, FL

An Example of Current Capabilities: High-resolution analyses (4 km)

over Florida created within the WFOand delivered to the AWIPS & GFEin near real-time. This serves asthe context for our presentation.

Dew Point Temperature - Experimental

Community Discussions

• Current community discussions regarding the creation of Analyses of Record (AoR) are both exciting and worrisome for Florida (FL) Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs).

• As we understand it, the purpose for pursuing the AoR stems from the agency’s need to verify the accuracy of their gridded forecasts. These forecasts are produced by WFOs for respective contributions to the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD). So, WFOs have a direct vested interest.

Exciting & Worrisome

• Exciting in that…– It represents a more complete commitment toward

operational forecasts grids becoming truly official.– It recognizes that current point-verification schemes

are inadequate for determining forecast skill. – And, from a business perspective, the agency can

only manage that which is properly measured. So far, current measurements of gridded forecasts have largely focused on timeliness and consistency (and not accuracy).

Exciting & Worrisome

• Worrisome in that…– A hasty implementation of a deficient AoR scheme

could yield lasting negative consequences, with agency leaders basing critical decisions on unrepresentative measurement information.

– It should be understood, the AoR will evolve to become authoritative in its character, ultimately becoming the official/historical record. Therefore, peripheral and subsequent uses will be many. The AoR must have integrity (with minimal scientific concession); responsibility is involved.

– Several of the current AoR proposals have neglected the potential role of the WFO and their importance to the process.

AoR Proposals

• Community must first declare an appropriate way of transforming the list of select verifications points into select verification grids.

• Simply creating verification grids based on extrapolations of downscaled extrapolations will not result in an AoR with integrity.

• Solutions must have an appreciation of surface observational data (but should not give all observations equal weight or influence).

High-Resolution Analyses

• When discussing the AoR, it is imperative to separate issues between high-resolution analyses utilized as a real-time diagnostic vs. high-resolution analyses utilized for verification.

• Independent from the actual method or approach, the primary differences are in:– Temporal resolution – Operational Urgency

• The primary similarity is that each are highly desired by WFO forecasters; there is a great opportunity here.

FL Modeling Initiatives

• Also, it legitimizes the aggressive data assimilation and modeling efforts taking place in the Southern Region (SR), especially within several Florida WFOs.

• These efforts have shown that expanding and maturing local mesonets is an essential component. More so, possessing local knowledge of platform metadata, data quality, calibration, biases, and history has been invaluable (along with having a working rapport with network operators); WFO strong points.

Southern Region

FL Modeling Initiatives

• In practice… mesoanalysts are assuming the growing operational duty of monitoring the quality of analyses, with an increasing need to have more control over data inputs at the forecaster level.

Southern Region

surface

FL Modeling Initiatives

• WFO Jacksonville - running WRF (Eulerian) initialized with LAPS (5 km).

• WFO Melbourne - running ARPS initialized with ADAS (4 km).

• Both data assimilation packages are ingesting a variety of observational data, including volumetric data (radar, satellite, etc.).

• WFO Miami – running WsEta (non-hydrostatic) initialized with an enhanced AWIPS/LAPS.

Southern Region

Comprehensive Value

• High-resolution (spatial & temporal) diagnostics have been documented as being useful for:– evaluating the current state of the local atmosphere

for short-term forecasting. – providing near-storm environment information for

warning-decision making.– populating the 00 hr forecast within the Graphical

Forecast Editor (GFE).– creating “persistence grids” for use within GFE.– Creating local libraries of situational “climatology

grids” for use within GFE.

Comprehensive Value

– making “current condition” graphics and products similar to forecast graphics and products.

– real-time assessment of the current Day-1 forecast.

– develop conceptual models of local phenomena.

– evaluate model performance and identify biases.

– initialize a local forecast model focused on 0-24 hours.

Continued

Current Temperature

Of Particular Value

• Importantly, the FL SOOs surmise that such high-resolution analysis grids, generated at the WFO level, could be judiciously used for verification.

• At each WFO, a fully optimized data assimilation and analysis package (LAPS, ADAS, other) could be configured outside of AWIPS.

Continued

For Example…

FL SOO Proposal

• The FL SOOs propose a collaborative approach between WFOs and EMC, leveraging strengths and expertise.– WFOs serving as local experts in mesoscale

weather and observational data.– EMC serving as agency experts in data

assimilation and modeling techniques.

• Individual WFOs would create analysis grids (5 km) for the variety of local uses, but also contribute them (hourly) in the same way as the forecast grids; this would be beneficial for everyone (including NDFD users).

FL SOO Proposal

• Analyses would be monitored and controlled by WFO forecasters.

• Configuration would be outside of AWIPS, but routinely delivered to AWIPS (in netcdf format) and available for GFE to create analysis grids.

• The Rapid Update Cycle (RUC20) would serve as the background field.

• EMC would receive these grids as the composite first-guess for the AoR.

Important Advocacies

• WFOs would need EMC’s support.• Develop anisotropy techniques for local

optimization (terrain, land use, coasts). • Importance of expansion of the national sensor

backbone (to include a “national mesonet”).• Improvements to LDAD.• National test beds.• FL as one of those test beds.

Benefits

• This approach would foster WFO forecaster buy-in.

• This approach would also improve the accuracy of high-resolution forecasts on many important levels, not just to serve as a “yard stick”.

Thank You