Analysis of Annual Forest Inventory Data in ME and PA

William H. McWilliams, Carol A. Alerich, Tonya W. Lister, and Randall S. MorinUSDA Forest Service, Northeastern Research Station, Forest Inventory and Analysis

Show You What We Have Found OutAbout Penn’s Woods

Examples of New AnalysesFor the 5-Year Report

Progress Update - Inventory

Regeneration Study: 2001

Associated Vegetation

Tree Seedlings

Exotics Survey: New in 2003

Progress Update - Reporting

Five-Year Reporting:

Penn State Issues Conference, April 26-27, 2005

Comprehensive Report

Annual Reporting, 2001 and 2002

Annual Reporting, 2003/4

Mega-Trends: Land-Use Change

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1630 1907 1938 1955 1965 1978 1989 2005

Year

Mill

ions

of A

cres

Forest Land Base is Stable

Mega-Trends: Land-Use Change

Nonforest01-2525-5050-100100-250250-500500-1000>1000Urban area

Forest

Population Density

UrbanizationParcelization Fragmentatio

n

Forestland Dynamics

Parcelization

Fragmentation

Fragmentation

Mega-Trends: Structure

Distribution of Forest Land by Stand-size Class

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Sapling-seedling Poletimber Sawtimber

Pe

rce

nt o

f Fo

rest

La

nd 1955

2004

23%

49%

28%

11%

49%

59%

Mega-Trends: Structure

Number of Growing-Stock Trees Per Acre

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

1965

19781989

2002

Mega-Trends: Composition

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1955 1965 1978 1989 2004

Pe

rce

nt

of

Cu

bic

-Fo

ot

Vo

lum

eOak

Red Maple

Oak is Decreasing and Red Maple is Increasing

Mega-Trends: Composition

Sawtimber

0

25000

50000

75000

100000

125000

150000

Tho

usan

ds o

f Tre

es

Mega-Trends: Composition

Poletimber

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

Tho

usan

ds o

f Tre

es

Saplings

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

Red Maple

Black birch

Black cherry

American Beech

Sugar maple

Blackgum

Striped maple

White ash

Hawthorn

Eastern Hemlock

Th

ou

san

ds

of

Tre

es

Sawtimber

0

25000

50000

75000

100000

125000

150000

Tho

usan

ds o

f Tre

es

Mega-Trends: Composition

Effects of Urbanization, Parcelization, and Fragmentation Reduce Management Options

Composition and Structure are Changing

Alien Pests are Here and More are on the Way

Current Threats

Invasive Plants are Here and Expanding Their Influence

Ailanthus vs. Oak

Inventory is Increasing at a Slower Rate than in the Past

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

1955 1965 1978 1989 2004

Mill

ion

Bo

ard

Fe

et

+ 15%+ 77%

+ 57%+ 19%

Advance Regeneration is Lacking and OptionsAre Expensive

Management and Policy Implications

Financially Mature, High-Value Stands Predominate PA’s forested landscape

“Timber Availability” is less than FIA Data Imply

Timber Industry Will Need to Adapt to SpeciesLike Red Maple

Recreation Value is Approximately Equal to Timber Value in Many Areas

Methods to Project Current Conditions into the Future Need to be Developed

Better Wildlife Habitat Models Would Help Gauge Prospective Trends

Stand Rehabilitation will be Needed in Disturbed stands with Poor Regeneration

Sustainable Forestry on Private Lands Needs Assessed

Prepare Management Strategies for Late Successional and Old Growth Stands

Strategies for Invasive Plants and Pests Need Further Development

Castanea dentata Map

Regional Study Examples

Frequency of Spruce Budworm DefoliationWhat, Where, and When of the Next Spruce/Fir Forest?

Principal Findings: The Next Generation of Spruce/Fir Forest (Where and When?)

Low

High

Current Distribution of Saplings

3-inch Class

10 Years

2-inch Class

15 Years

1 inch Class

20 Years

4-inch Class

5 Years

Next 20 Years of Ingrowth

Principal Findings: Inventory (Where?)

Balsam Fir Eastern White Pine

Paper Birch Beech Northern Red Oak

Where are the Major Species Concentrated?

Red Spruce

% BA/AC

Forest Health: Balsam Fir

Forest Health: American Beech

Forest Habitat Types

Forest Diversity

Late-Succession Forests

?

The End

What We Can’t Tell You Now

Less Than 50% of Plots Were Remeasured

Old Design New Design

Only Central Portion Remeasured!

Only About 10% of Trees Remeasured the First Time Through

We Will Remeasure More Trees This Season Than We Did in the First Five Years!

Growth, Removals, and Mortality Are Not Statistically Sound, Yet

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

1952 1970 1987 2000 2020 2040

Arboreal

Understory

Floor

Soil

1015 grams by eco-component

Tree Carbon Per Hectare by U.S. County

Carbon Stocks and Accumulation

National Reporting Examples

Quercus spp. Map

Distribution of Mixed-Oak Stands in the Eastern US

Mixed-Oak Stands by Stand-Size Class

Nonforest01-2525-5050-100100-250250-500500-1000>1000Urban area

Forest

Population DensityPennyslvania

0 10 20 30 40

> 1000

501 - 1000

251 - 500

101 - 250

51 - 100

26 - 50

<= 25

Po

pu

lati

on

Den

sity

Percent of Forestland

Urbanization

PA

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

1-99 100-199 200-499 500-999 1000+

Parcel Size

Th

ou

san

d A

cres

1978

1993

Parcelization – Private Forestland(Source National Woodland Owner Survey, 1994)

NE PA

0

500

1000

1-99 100-199 200-499 500-999 1000+

Parcel Size

Thou

sand

A

cres

1978

1993

Fragmentation

Forestland Area by Patch Size - PA

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

1 - 1010 - 50

50 - 100

100 - 500

500 - 1000

1000 - 5000

5000+

Patch Size (Acres)

Th

ou

sa

nd

s o

f A

cre

s

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

Dee

r P

op

ula

tio

n E

stim

ate

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

Tu

rkey

sig

hti

ng

s/10

00km

02000

40006000

800010000

1200014000

1600018000

20000

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

Bla

ck B

ear

Po

pu

lati

on

Est

imat

e

Habitat Concerns?

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

Elk

Po

pu

lati

on

Est

imat

e

Migrants

Habitat Concerns?

Forest Interior

Specific

Threatened

Generalists

Late-Successional and Old Growth Forests

Quantify Extent and Character

Spatial Distribution

Age / Size(After Whitman and Hagen, 2004)

Mixed Oak

200

300

100

0

For Major Forest Community Types (follow Fike and Jenkins)