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An Overview of the European Leasing Market in 2009. Jurgita Bucyte Adviser in Statistics and Economic Affairs ALB National Conference, Bucharest 18 November 2010. Agenda. About Leaseurope Global Leasing Markets in 2009 Evolution of the European Leasing Market - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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An Overview of the European Leasing Market in 2009
Jurgita BucyteAdviser in Statistics and Economic Affairs
ALB National Conference, Bucharest18 November 2010
Agenda
About Leaseurope About Leaseurope
Global Leasing Markets in 2009Global Leasing Markets in 2009
Evolution of the European Leasing MarketEvolution of the European Leasing Market
European Leasing Market in 2009: European Leasing Market in 2009:
- Asset Breakdowns- Asset Breakdowns
- Regional Performance- Regional Performance
- Client Sectors- Client Sectors
European Leasing PenetrationEuropean Leasing Penetration
The European Leasing Market in H1 2010The European Leasing Market in H1 2010
About Leaseurope
The voice of leasing and automotive rental in Europe
It brings together 45 Member Associations
In turn representing more than 1 300 finance leasing firms & more than 780 short term rental companies
Leaseurope represents ~93%of the European leasing market
Leaseurope members
US
ELFA
124 bil€
Leaseurope
209 bil€
Japan
JLA
38 bil€
New equipment leasing volumes (Leaseurope volumes include real estate)ELFA figures do not include passenger car leasingAELA figures are for FY 2009Source: Leaseurope 2009 Annual Survey, local leasing associations, Leaseurope estimates
Brazil
ABEL
11 bil€Australia
AELA & AFLA
10 bil€
Global Leasing Markets in 2009
Canada
CFLA
20 bil€
China
CLBA
29 bil€
-10%
0%
-19%
-32%-20%
Global Leasing Markets in 2009: Europe
Total Real Estate Movables
686 €bil 211 €bil 475 €bil
NEW VOLUMES
OUTSTANDINGS
Leaseurope Annual Survey
725 €bilEstimated TOTAL Market
Total Real Estate Movables
209 €bil 25 €bil 185 €bilLeaseurope Annual Survey
231 €bilEstimated TOTAL Market
Source: Leaseurope estimates, Leaseurope 2009 Annual Survey of European Leasing29 member associations in 24 countries reporting, figures include hire purchase products when reported by member associations
Results from Leaseurope’s 2009 Annual Enquiry
Evolution of the European Leasing Market
-32.5%
-31.0%
-32.3%
Movables
New volumes % 2008/9
Evolution of the European leasing marketNew business, annual % change (1995 – 2009)
Growth rates calculated based on a homogenous sample of members reporting from year to year Growth rates not adjusted for exchange rate fluctuations. When adjusted for exchange rates, total new leasing volumes decreased by 30.3% from ’08 to ’09.Source: Leaseurope Annual Surveys
-35%
-25%
-15%
-5%
5%
15%
25%
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Total New Volumes Real Estate
30.0%
15.3% 14.8%16.5%
-8.7%
12.4%
-0.7%- €100 bil
-35%
-25%
-15%
-5%
5%
15%
25%
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Evolution of the European Leasing Market
Total New Volumes Real Estate Movables
Evolution of the European leasing marketNew business, annual % change
CAGR calculated for the 18 associations reporting from ’95-’09Growth rates calculated based on a homogenous sample of members reporting from year to yearGrowth rates not adjusted for exchange rate fluctuationsSource: Leaseurope Annual Surveys
5.8%
3.8%
5.4%
CAGR(1995-2009)
Evolution of the European Leasing Market
Source: Leaseurope 2009 Annual SurveyGrowth rates are not adjusted for exchange rate fluctuationsNote: AT domestic leasing business decreased by 23%
NANA
-25 to - 35%
-15 to - 25%
- 50% and lower
-35 to - 50%
Evolution of new business by countryNew vol, annual % change (2009/2008)
The European Leasing Market in 2009
54% Automotive
7%
10%
12%
38%
16% 18%
Machines & equip
Cars
CVs
ICT
Big/other
Real estate
Leased assetsTotal new volumes per asset category, %
Source: Leaseurope 2009 Annual SurveyFigures shown in pie charts may not add to 100% due to rounding
20092008
11%
11%
19%18%
35%6%
Based on figures reported in the 2009 Annual Survey & Leaseurope estimates; includes figures from short term rental associations
Leaseurope’s weight in the car sector (2009)
The European Leasing Market in 2009
14 211 500546 500units
Total ST rentalLeasing
Portfolio/fleet
13 665 000
871077€ (bil)
5 500 900704 4004 796 500units
Total ST rentalLeasing
Cars financed/purchased
new carsbusiness use
76%61%
of which:
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
Machinery ICT
-36.8%
-18.7%
-30%
-35%
-40%
The European Leasing Market in 2009
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%Total
-32.3%-35%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%Real Estate Movables
-31.0%-32.5%
-30%
-35%
Growth rates are calculated based on a homogenous sample of members reporting from year to year & are not adjusted for exchange rate fluctuationsSource: 2009 Leaseurope Annual Survey
CVs
-38.5%
Cars
-26.7%
Big/other
-41.1%
European leasing volumes per asset categoryAnnual % change (2009/2008)
The European Leasing Market in 2009
Regional performance by movable asset categoryNew business growth - annual % change (2009/2008)
Growth rates are calculated based on a homogenous sample of members reporting & are not adjusted for exchange rate fluctuationsSource: Leaseurope 2009 Annual Survey
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
Machines & Equip VehiclesICT Big/Other
CEE MED. UK ITBE,NLAT,CHNordic DE FR
-49%
-26%-22%
-52%
-27% -30%
-20%
-30% -32%
-25%
-32%-28% -26%
-58% -56%
-40%
The European Leasing Market in 2009
NordicCEE MED. UKIT DE FRBE,NLAT,CH
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
Commercial Vehicles Passenger Cars
Regional performance – automotive sectorNew business growth - annual % change (2009/2008)
Growth rates are calculated based on a homogenous sample of members reporting & are not adjusted for exchange rate fluctuationsSource: Leaseurope 2009 Annual Survey
-62%
-45%
-38% -39% -37% -37%-31%
-25%
-56%
-38%
-28%-26% -25% -23%
-19%-16%
The European Leasing Market in 2009
Leasing clientsNew movables leasing volumes by sector & cluster(2009)
Source: Leaseurope 2009 Annual Survey
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
DE UK FR IT MED. CEE NordicBE,NLAT,CH
Businesses Consumers Public Other
European Leasing Penetration
Total Volumes Real Estate Movables
Lease penetration is the share of total investment (excluding residential real estate) financed by leasing Calculated as new leasing volumes / gross fixed capital formation for the 20 associations reporting from ’99-’09Source: Leaseurope, Eurostat (GFCF)
Evolution of leasing penetration in Europe20 countries (1999-2009)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
16%
7%
22%18%
12%
3%
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
European Leasing Penetration
Leasing (excl RE) Investment (excl RE)
Why is lease penetration falling ?Leasing vs investment growth (excl real estate)Annual % change
Source: Leaseurope, Eurostat, Commission Spring Forecast, Global Insight
European Investment
Total Investment Public Investment
Why is lease penetration falling ?Total vs public investment (2001-2015, Western Europe)Annual % change
Growth rates are calculated based on EU-15 (excl LU) including NO and CHSource: HIS Global Insight
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
European Lease Penetration
NANA
20% to 25%
> 25 %
10% to 15%
15% to 20%
< 10 %
Share of total investment financed by leasing
Lease penetration is the share of total investment financed by leasing calculated as new leasing volumes / gross fixed capital formation (excluding residential real estate)Source: Leaseurope, Eurostat
15.5%
2008
European Lease Penetration
Share of total investment financed by leasing
12.2%
NANA
20% to 25%
> 25 %
10% to 15%
15% to 20%
< 10 %
Lease penetration is the share of total investment financed by leasing calculated as new leasing volumes / gross fixed capital formation (excluding residential real estate)Source: Leaseurope, Eurostat
2009
H1 2010New volumes*
94 bil€
The European Leasing Market in H1 2010
Source: Leaseurope Member Associations*24 member associations reporting; growth rates not adjusted for exchange rate fluctuations
H1 2010/09 %
+0.3%
NANA
0 to 10%
over 10 %
-25% and lower
-10 to 0%
-25 to - 10%CEE cluster: -8.3%
Concluding Remarks
What’s next ??
Source: IHS Global Insight
Investment – annual change (% YoY)
CEE Europe
-56%
CEE:
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Total new volumes (% YoY)
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
An Overview of the European Leasing Market in 2009
Jurgita BucyteAdviser in Statistics and Economic Affairs
ALB National Conference, Bucharest18 November 2010