International Journal of Sustainable Built Environment (2014) 3, 47–53

HO ST E D BY

Gulf Organisation for Research and Development

International Journal of Sustainable Built Environment

ScienceDirectwww.sciencedirect.com

Review Article

An academic goal of socio-ecological sustainability:A comprehensive review from a millennial-scale perspective

Goro Mouri ⇑

Institute of Industrial Science (IIS), The University of Tokyo, Be505, 4-6-1 Komaba, Meguro-ku, Tokyo 153-8505, Japan

Received 22 November 2013; accepted 20 May 2014

Abstract

We introduce the concept of millennial-scale sustainability as part of an academic approach to solving various technological problemsfaced by humans in modern society and for managing scientific technology. We further discuss the rationale behind the application ofsuch a sociological concept to science. First, we compare the value of having a relatively short-term outlook (corresponding to the humanlife span) on the relation between technology and human activities to a 1000-year outlook by considering the correlation between ourcurrent situation and past technology, taking note of the scientific and technological policies, and human activities of the past 1000 years.In particular, we discuss the relationship between human activities and environmental issues. The problem is not one of currentsustainability but, rather, of future sustainability. Therefore, the importance of applying the 1000-year outlook to the technology usedin various applications is emphasized. Second, by looking back 1000 years, we discuss the realization of existing technology over thatperiod. Examples of sustainable scientific technology from the past 1000 years are given, including the importance of artificial structuresand new computer systems. Third, solving global environmental problems, including the supply of and demand for food, mitigation ofclimate change, and the response to natural disasters is an important concern of scientists in the 21st century, and is aided by simulationsthat include comprehensive historical investigations of civilizations that unify both natural and anthropogenic systems to define 1000-year sustainability scientific technology. The concept of 1000-year sustainability will move from sustainable development to sustainabilitydevelopment or the development of sustainability, which is the goal of a continuous society.

Keywords: Development of sustainability; Millennial-scale sustainability; Human impact; Society co-existing with nature; Urbanization

� 2014 The Gulf Organisation for Research and Development. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V.Open access under CC BY-NC-ND license.

Contents

1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 482. Conceptual theory of 1000-year sustainability. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 483. Feasibility of 1000-year scientific technology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijsbe.2014.05.003

2212-6090/� 2014 The Gulf Organisation for Research and Development. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V.

⇑ Tel.: +81 3 5452 6382.E-mail address: mouri@rainbow.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp

Peer review under responsibility of The Gulf Organisation for Researchand Development.

Open access under CC BY-NC-ND license.

48 G. Mouri / International Journal of Sustainable Built Environment 3 (2014) 47–53

4. Scientific technology of the twenty-first century for 1000-year sustainability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 495. Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51

References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51

1. Introduction

Scientific technology has released vulnerable humanbeings from their subordination to nature. For modernhumans, unreasonable pain accompanying work anddeaths caused by epidemic diseases and natural disastershave been reduced, while leisure time and knowledge levelshave increased (Acha et al., 2004; Porfiriev, 2012;Hagelsteen and Becker, 2013; Mouri et al., 2013a).However, many important problems remain, includingenvironmental pollution, the destruction of nature, theextermination of species, the safety of food, various distor-tions accompanying urbanization, the destruction of theozone layer and global warming (Giles, 2005; Grimmet al., 2009; Albiac, 2009; Chao, 2009; Butchart et al.,2010; Rana, in press; Colombert et al., 2011; Mouri andOki, 2010; Mouri et al., 2011, 2012, 2013b, 2014; Salonenand Ahlberg, 2103; Mowery et al., 2010). A clear visionof the future ways in which these problems may be solvedthrough the use of scientific technology has not yetemerged. This is because a vague uneasiness and hesitationregarding global environmental problems exists withregard to the issue of problem solving by scientific technol-ogy and whether it accelerates problems further, given thatthe present age is wasting past property and futureresources. In order to break free from this sense of limita-tion, a 1000-year technology system supporting “1000-yearsustainability” must be established.

2. Conceptual theory of 1000-year sustainability

What is “1000-year sustainability”? The 1000-year timescale is considerably longer than a human lifetime. Thisencapsulates the idea that human beings and communitiesin general continue to strive toward a better future, withthe result that, by their thoughts and actions, 1000 yearsfrom now, we will have a sustainable, functional and cul-tured society. In future decades, economic performanceand the acceleration of engineering developments will betop priorities for human society in order to ensure socialoverhead capital for typical lifespans of 50–100 years, espe-cially in developed countries. The development of humansociety and the natural environment, based on economicperformance and the acceleration of engineering develop-ments as top priorities, has been successfully achievedthrough globalization for many citizens, including thosein developing countries. However, problems can arise fromvarious uncertainties or an increase in the social infrastruc-ture, and it could be considered that the current level ofdevelopment has weakened natural and human society.Most members of society today may not actually under-

stand the concept of sustainability development (Niven,2005; Klaier et al., 2013). They may even be disheartenedby how pragmatic such predictions are (Keller, 2004;JORA, 2003; Macleod et al., 2007; Larsen andGunnarsson-Ostling, 2009; Lotfalipour et al., 2010). How-ever, a vision for 1000 years hence will enfranchise peoplewith a strong will to enable certain future outcomes onthe basis of “wanting it to be like this”, thus increasingthe possibility that their vision will be realized.

For example, all human activities in our present lives andsocieties are accompanied by the consumption of energy.Increases in the amount of fossil fuel used, stemming fromthe industrial revolution, have brought about unprece-dented improvements in the quality of life and life expec-tancy (Sadownik and Jaccard, 2001; Midilli and Dincer,2009; Webersik and Wilson, 2009; Huang and Rust, inpress). However, the results of recent investigations indicatethat the number of years that fossil fuel reserves will last islimited; oil, for example, is limited to 40 years, natural gasto 70 years, and coal less than 300 years (Abelson, 2000;Galloway, 2003; Aldhous, 2005; Holden, 2007; Kerr,2009). The influence of coal on air pollution and other envi-ronmental problems is great, and its use, therefore, comeswith difficulties. When the future view of energy supplyproblems is restricted to the 21st century, uncertaintiesregarding the reliability of such reserve estimates for a fossilfuel and/or the accuracy of the predicted number of yearsfor which they will be able to be used can obfuscate thelonger-term issues of availability (Gil-Martin et al., 2013;Munjur et al., 2013). The tendency, in this scenario, is toargue over numbers for goal-setting, such as whetherusage-reduction targets should be set at 10% or 20%. How-ever, when we consider 1000-year sustainability, it becomesclear that even if we reduce usage by 20%, this only allowsfor a 25% increase in the number of years for which supplieswill last. Even if the predictions contain 100% error, it willstill be impossible in 1000 years to use fossil fuel as it is usedtoday. If our vision for 1000 years hence includes the ideathat “we would like to maintain energy consumption at cur-rent levels”, than it is clear that, in the near future,problem-solving type research and development, such asenergy-saving technologies and the simultaneous develop-ment of alternative energy sources and their use must bepromoted. One solution has summarized state-of-the-artmeasures applied in different parts of the world to reducethe energy consumption related to urban water usage(Eli’as-Maxir et al., 2014). Another solution has proposedurban wind energy as an energy source with great potentialthat is currently being wasted (Welch and Venkateswaran,2009; Toja-Silv et al., 2013). Lee and Leal (2014) proposeda novel idea for planning new energy sources for members

G. Mouri / International Journal of Sustainable Built Environment 3 (2014) 47–53 49

of the economic community. Abdallah et al. (2013) andRashwan et al. (2013) introduced indicators of sustainableenergy development for the human community. This servesas a driving force to urge the development of 1000-year sci-entific technology that will support sustainability for thenext millennium.

Fig. 2. Traditional landscapes, including terraced paddy fields covering anartificial forested catchment, represent ecologically designed systems thatprovide the staple foodstuffs for large cities in Japan.

3. Feasibility of 1000-year scientific technology

However, looking back, has the scientific technology ofthe past 1000 years been realized? Without consideringpersonal appearance, it seems that we are presently sur-rounded by large amounts of constructed artificial struc-tures (Fig. 1). However, various structures supportinghuman society have received the benefit of old scientifictechnology and existing ecosystems (Carpenter et al.,2009; Mulder, 2007; Mouri et al., 2013c). Technology asimmaterial property, such as knowledge about food, cloth-ing use and artifice, actually continues to be used overspans of 100 years, and even more than 1000 years. Forexample, although their designed service life is about100 years, civil engineered structures and constructedbuildings can be used for over 1000 years or more, if suit-able repairs are performed (Fig. 2). Even if a building islost, its influence will remain for future generations. Also,information is inherited. The Dujiangyan irrigation systemin Sichuan China has continued to supply irrigation waterto the Sichuan basin for 2300 years or more. Moreover, anintermittent embankment of the Fuji River, YamanashiPrefecture, in Japan, has continued to protect the townof Kofu for 400 years or more by means of an artificiallevee formed by Takeda Shingen.

Thus, although many of the rapid scientific develop-ments that have taken place in recent years doubtless willbe forgotten, there certainly are some current scientifictechnologies that will support sustainability 1000 years intothe future. The example of computer Y2K problems was a

Fig. 1. It seems that we are currently surrounded by a large number ofartificial structures that were constructed without considering theirappearance.

typical case exemplifying the lack of consideration for1000-year sustainability. When we consider scientifictechnologies 1000 years into the future, whether they areartificial structures, information systems, or humane socialsystems, we can see that those that currently exist, but arelacking in some way, must nonetheless be used for the timebeing. Excellent material will be used over a long period oftime through periodical repair and improvement, fre-quently exceeding the lifespan intended by the designerand maker (Oguchi et al., 2001; Grynning, et al., 2013;Marie, 2013). Therefore, in computer software develop-ment, the idea of scientific technology for 1000-yearsustainability should be taken into consideration inadvance. However, it is difficult to prevent every adversesituation until specific problems are predicted; it is a goalof 1000-year sustainability to exhibit flexibility in suchcases, and to continue using and taking advantage of thestrong points of an existing system. Thus, it could be saidthat by overcoming the Y2K problem, information scienceand technology began to advance toward 1000-yearsustainability (Manion and Evan, 2000; JORA, 2003).

4. Scientific technology of the twenty-first century for 1000-

year sustainability

Clearly, the fields that need to take particular interest inthe scientific technology of the 21st century for 1000-yearsustainability are those concerning global environmentalproblems (Palmer et al., 2005; Grainger, 2012). There areproblems, such as population increase and mineral andenergy resource depletion, that form the basis of many cur-rent global environment problems (Rayner, 2010; Mercure,2012). Problems associated with the supply and demand offood, water-resource management, climatic change, andincreasing desertification are derived from such underlyingissues (EI-Fadel et al., 2001; Clarke, 2002; Oki and Kanae,2006; Chereni, 2007; Bardsley and Sweeney, 2010; Godfray

50 G. Mouri / International Journal of Sustainable Built Environment 3 (2014) 47–53

et al., 2010; Macleod et al., 2007). To solve global environ-mental problems, it is important to have exact knowledgeabout such problems from past circumstances, the presentsituation, and future projections. It is expected that suchknowledge will be obtained through the historical investi-gation of comprehensive civilizations, improvements inearth observation technologies, the construction of aninternational network-of-information, and the construc-tion of a huge advanced mathematical model simulationsystem integrating the effects of natural and humansystems.

By the end of the 21st century, short-term predictionsabout food production, water cycle changes, and climatechange will provide global mitigation for losses of humanlife and property from famine and natural disaster, as fore-casting systems will have progressed greatly (Kuylenstiernaet al., 1997; Hilson, 2000; Ferrier and Edward, 2002; Mosset al., 2010; Nomura and Abe, 2010). Also, for example,epoch-making long-term predictions of populations,resources, social development, and international trade willbe very useful in the effective investment of limited socialcapital (Mowery et al., 2010). Japan will be able to contrib-ute greatly to international society by providing informa-tion to this end. Furthermore, such measures formitigating predicted crises are not temporary and thechoosing and carrying out of alternatives is inheritable,as human property will realize 1000-year sustainability. Ifthe global environmental problems of the 21st centurycan be solved by 1000-year scientific technology then wecan be confident in the idea of 1000-year sustainability suchthat “A present-day human being can have the confidencenot only to enjoy the benefits of the culture inherited fromprevious generations and civilizations but also to form theproperties of a civilization that will be carried forward tothe next generation”.

Fig. 3. The concept of 1000-year sustainability development, which is the goal othe next millennium (The Century of the Environment).

Therefore, the basis of scientific technology that willsupport 1000-year sustainability for a new millenniumneeds to be formed at the beginning of the 21st century(Fig. 3). Precedent provides us with many points to takeinto consideration in this undertaking (Lopez-Ridauraet al., 2002; Borghesi and Vercelli, 2003; Hellstrand et al.,2009; Sheate and Partidario, 2010, Smith et al., 2010). Thatis, the bases of many social systems that have continued tobe used in the present were devised 1000 years ago or more.Therefore, it is likely that the wisdom needed to applytechnology to 1000-year sustainability is hidden withinsuch systems. Thus, typical structures used in Japan andworldwide for long periods of time should be investigatedand studied (Garmendia and Stagl, 2010; Jorstad andSkogen, 2010; Heink and Kowarik, 2010; Mouri et al.,2013d). Continuous evaluation of social science and natu-ral science factors should be carried out, and commonfactors related to 1000-year sustainability are extracted.This conceptual diagram of a socio-ecological system formillennial-scale sustainability development, which is influ-enced by spatial and temporal variations, as well as therelationship between human and economic activity, andenvironmental issues is shown in Fig. 4. As a result, we willunderstand how the social and cultural properties that havecontributed to human society for long periods werefashioned. Of course, having only a long-term viewpointis inadequate. For impending problem solving, it is impor-tant to perform innovative technical developments inconnection with biotechnology, materials science, informa-tion, and the environment. However, when exploring thepotential technology for coping with current or pendingproblems, a long-term view toward 1000-year sustainabilityis indispensable. It is necessary, therefore, to establishguidelines for the construction of this viewpoint.

f a continuous society that utilizes scientific technology, and economics for

Fig. 4. A conceptual diagram of a socio-ecological system for millennial-scale sustainability development, which is influenced by spatial and temporalvariations, and the relationship between human and economic activity, and environmental issues.

G. Mouri / International Journal of Sustainable Built Environment 3 (2014) 47–53 51

5. Conclusion

Phrases such as the “construction of a recycling society”

and “sustainable development” have passed into generaluse. However, their exact meaning is changing. The ideaof 1000-year sustainability will move from sustainabledevelopment to sustainability development or the develop-ment of sustainability, which is the target of a continuoussociety. At the beginning of the 21st century, we must ceaseto think only of ourselves and our immediate descendents.Human beings 1000 years from now should be comfortableand safe in a realized society in which they can survive, setup by scientific technology and research undertaken in the21st century, if we take the step of looking 1000 years intothe future. To this end, we must all be aware that we needto make a consistent effort to promote the development ofsustainability. We sincerely hope that society and technol-ogy in the 21st century will progress in this direction. Tosolve global environmental and social problems, it isimportant to develop a detailed knowledge of such prob-lems from an integration of the traditional approach, thepresent situation, and future projections. We must aim toenvision scientific technology that looks forward in thenext 1000 years.

Acknowledgments

This study was supported by funding from the NewEnergy and Industrial Technology Development Organiza-tion (NEDO); the Environmental Research and Technol-ogy Development Fund (S-8) of the Ministry of theEnvironment, Japan; the Green Network of Excellence(GRENE); Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research

(24560616) from the Ministry of Education, Japan; theSumitomo Foundation; the Foundation of River andWatershed Environment Management; and the CoreResearch for Evolutionary Science and Technology(CREST), Japan. The dataset was partially provided bythe Shikoku Regional Bureau of MLIT and the authorsare grateful for their support. The authors benefitted fromdiscussions with colleagues in the course of preparing adraft for this paper. Special thanks go to Taikan Oki forhis helpful input. We are also grateful to an anonymousreviewer and editors of the International Journal of Sustain-

able Built Environment, whose advice greatly improved thequality of this manuscript.

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