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A.Montani; Eurorisk-PreviewCOSMO meeting, Zurich, 20-23 September 2005
PREVIEW in some words(PREVention, Information and Early Warning)
• A project funded by the European Commission– 23 millions € of eligible costs, 14 millions € granted
• New information services to help risk management– Gathering users needs
– Using the most advanced research and technology
– Validation on operational platforms
• 58 partners from 15 nations– Scientists
– Operators
– Industrial companies
– End Users
• 45 months performance schedule (start on 1 April 2005) and yearly budget reviews
COSMO partners involved: DWD, ARPA-SIM, ARPA Piedmont, Meteoswiss
A.Montani; Eurorisk-PreviewCOSMO meeting, Zurich, 20-23 September 2005
Provision of probabilistic forecasts and warnings of strong wind events at all time ranges up to 10 days ahead.
Windstorms Workpackage(DWD, ARPA-SIM)
• Ensemble Forecast inputs:– Medium-Range (3-10 days)
• ECMWF• ARPA-SIM (COSMO-LEPS) (Days 3-5)
– Short-Range (1-2 days) – multi-model ensemble consisting of contributions from:
• Meteo-France - PEACE• DWD - SRNWP-PEPS• Met.no - TEPS/LAM EPS• Met Office - LAMEPS/EPS
• Post-processing…
A.Montani; The COSMO-LEPS system: recent developments and plans2nd Workshop on Short-Range EPS, Bologna, 7-8 April 2005
Clone of COSMO-LEPS suite over NW Europe
Generation of a new limited-area ensemble forecast system for the prediction of wind and wind gusts over North-Western Europe.
Aim: provision of site-specific wind forecasts to be post-processed and combined with other products by UK Met. Office.
Same configuration as the operational COSMO-LEPS (red), but both clustering and integration domain are shifted northwards (blue).
Experimental suite will start on June 2006.Computer time provided by an ECMWF special
project between ARPA-SIM and UK Met Office.
A.Montani; The COSMO-LEPS system: recent developments and plans2nd Workshop on Short-Range EPS, Bologna, 7-8 April 2005
Provision of probabilistic forecasts so as to generate ensemble flood forecasts to be compared with the
deterministic approach for ranges between 3 and 10 days.
The upper-Danube river basin has been selected as pilot river basin and the test period will include the large floods of August 2002.
Medium-range plain flood Workpackage
(DWD, ARPA-SIM)
Very short-range high-resolution flash-flood Workpackage
(ARPA-Piedmont, Meteoswiss)
Prepare the use of next-generation NWP models for hydrological applications in flash-flood forecasting over medium basins.
Establish the know-how for developing hydrometeorological coupled model systems for flash-flood forecasting.